USN Arctic Roadmap 2014-2030

SCICEX SAC meeting

CDR Nick Vincent

21 May 2014
Polar routes will gradually open. Transit season is short. Maritime activity growth only 2-4%
of global shipping. Will not replace the Suez or Panama Canals as primary shipping routes. 2
 Arctic Ice Coverage

Sea Routes

Northern Sea Route

2025: 6 weeks open
41’ controlling draft

Transpolar Route
2025: 2 weeks open
Deep ocean transit

Northwest Passage
2025: intermittently open
33’ controlling draft

Sea route distances:

Distance from the
Bering Strait to
Rotterdam

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 Arctic Sea Route Navigability
Bering Strait (BS) Transpolar Route (TPR)
(4,170 NM)
483 Vessels 0 Vessels
2012 3 Wks 21 Wks 3 Wks 2012
2020 3 Wks 23 Wks 3 Wks 2020 8 Wks
1,000 Vessels 100 Vessels
2025 4 Wks 25 Wks 4 Wks 2025 5 Wks 2 Wks 5 Wks

2030 5 Wks 27 Wks 5 Wks 2030 5 Wks 6 Wks 5 Wks

Mid Jun Mid Sep Mid Dec Late Aug Mid Sep Early Oct

Northern Sea Route (NSR) Northwest Passage (NWP)

(4,740 NM) (5,225 NM)
44 Vessels 51 Vessels
2012 3 Wks 2 Wks 3 Wks 2012
2020 3 Wks 4 Wks 3 Wks 2020 4 Wks
450 Vessels 200 Vessels
2025 4 Wks 6 Wks 4 Wks 2025 8 Wks

2030 5 Wks 9 Wks 5 Wks 2030 3 Wks 5 Wks 3 Wks

Early Aug Mid Sep Late Oct Late Aug Mid Sep Early Oct

> 40% sea ice

Shoulder Season: 10-40% sea ice Vessel data from ONI
Open Water: < 10% sea ice

Polar routes will gradually open. Transit season is short. Maritime activity growth only 2-4%
of global shipping. Will not replace the Suez or Panama Canals as primary shipping routes.
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 Informing the Roadmap
Current Strategic Guidance
 A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower (Oct 2007)
 National Security Presidential Directive – 66 Arctic Region Policy (Jan 2009)
 Quadrennial Defense Review (Feb 2010)
 U.S. Navy Strategic Objectives for the Arctic (May 2010)
 National Security Strategy 2010 (May 2010)
 National Strategy for the Arctic Region (May 2013)
 U.S. Coast Guard Arctic Strategy (May 2013)
 DoD Arctic Strategy (Nov 2013)
 Implementation Plan of National Strategy for the Arctic Region (Jan 2014)
“…an Arctic region that is stable and
free of conflict, where nations act
Recent Activity responsibly in a spirit of cooperation,
 USN-USCG Warfighter Talks and where economic and energy
resources are developed in a
 ONI – Arctic geostrategic assessment
sustainable manner.”
 Two Naval Studies Board sessions
 N3/N5 Strategy and Mission Analysis Desired strategic end state, National Strategy
 National Fleet Plan (March 2014) for the Arctic Region

 NORTHCOM Maritime Mission Requirements Quicklook

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National LOE 1: Advance U.S. LOE 2: Pursue Responsible LOE 3: Strengthen
Strategy Security Interest Arctic Stewardship International Cooperation
• Evolve infrastructure and • Protect environment/conserve • Pursue arrangements that
strategic capabilities resources promote Arctic State
Supporting prosperity, protect
• Enhance domain awareness • Balance development, environment and enhance
Objs environmental protection and security
• Preserve freedom of the
cultural values
seas • Work through Arctic Council to
• Increase understanding advance U.S. interests
• Provide for future energy
through scientific research • Accede to Law of the Sea
security
and traditional knowledge Convention
• Chart the region • Cooperate with interested
parties
DoD
Strategy Major DoD role Significant DoD role DoD supporting role

Supporting Ensure security, support safety, and Prepare for a wide range of challenges
Objs promote defense cooperation and contingencies

Ensure U.S. Arctic sovereignty and Promote partnerships within the U.S.
USN Roadmap provide homeland defense Government and international allies
Strategic Objs
Preserve freedom of the seas
Provide ready naval forces to respond to crises and contingencies to maintain security
and stability

A secure and stable region where U.S. national interests are safeguarded, the U.S.
homeland is protected, and nations work cooperatively to address challenges. 6
 DOD Lead:
Develop a Framework of Observations and Modeling to
Support Forecasting and Prediction of Sea Ice
 Objective: Improve sea ice forecasts and predictions at
a variety of spatial and temporal scales

DOD Support: Charting, Models, Maritime Domain Awareness, Observations, etc.

Under Title 10 the Navy is responsible “for safety and effectiveness of all maritime
vessels, aircraft, and forces of the armed forces by means of: marine data collection,
numerical modeling and forecasting hazardous weather and ocean conditions. As
well as the collection and processing of Hydrographic Information.”

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U.S. Navy is increasing its coordination with the U.S. Coast Guard, to include a joint
USN/USCG Arctic Working Group
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• Harsh operating environment
 Non-ice hardened ships and
limited ice breaking capability
• Limited comms and satellite sensors
• Limited Arctic experience
• Incomplete charting
• Limited ice- breaking capabilities Identified Capability Gaps
• Limited SAR assets • Sense environment parameters
• Limited infrastructure • Forecast environmental parameters
• High cost of operations • Predict impact of environmental
conditions on naval systems

Improving operational capabilities, expertise, and capacity

to operate in the region……….Just like every other ocean around the world
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• Improved sea ice and weather forecasts
• High-resolution Arctic System Models
 Coupled ocean/wave/ice/atmosphere
• Expanded forecasts (7 days, 1-3 months, 1 yr, 5-10 yrs)
 Detailed ice location, thickness, age, movement
• Platform/sensor development (buoys, hydrographic
sensors, UAV/UUVs)
• Remote sensing exploitation and algorithm development
• High resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery
• Data Assimilation techniques
• Mitigate Effects of Sea Ice Impacts and Ice Loading
• Arctic Center of Excellence

Improving forecasts and predictions to support Navy operations worldwide

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 Opportunities

A National Earth System Prediction Capability

TC Forecasts Sea Level Rise Aerosols & GHG

Extreme Weather
Arctic Operations National Security
Floods, Droughts

The time is now to accelerate research into operational capabilities for improved global
medium range (10-90 days) and long range (seasonal to decadal) forecasting skill to address
national security and societal impacts of the environment through collaboration between
the Research and Mission Agencies in the Dept. of Defense, NOAA, DoE, NASA and NSF.
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• Sea ice decreases - Major
waterways increasingly
open
• Shipping remains light -
Harsh weather, high sea
states, and economy-of-
scale limitations
• Presence primarily
undersea and air. Surface NATIONAL
INTERAGENCY INTERNATIONAL
operations limited to open
water DOD
• Specify Requirements
• Investment decisions
• Gain experience/expertise
• S&T, Exchanges, Exercises
• Update CONOPS, TTPs
• Strengthen Partnerships

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