Thayer Consultancy Background Report:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

United States: Trump
Administration and the Indo-
Pacific – What Lies Ahead?
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 28, 2018
Michaela del Callar, Diplomatic Correspondent, GMA News Online:
We are preparing a report on the Trump Administration and its likely policy towards
the Asia Pacific with a specific focus on the Philippines as well as the South China Sea.
We request your assessment of the following issues:
Q1) What is your assessment of what Trump's foreign policy means for the Asia-Pacific
specifically the Philippines and the South China Sea disputes. How different is it from
the previous Obama administration? How is President Trump managing the South
China Sea disputes?
ANSWER: President Trump’s policy on the South China Sea was crystalized this month
with the release of the U.S. National Security Strategy and U.S. National Defense
Strategy. China has been explicitly identified as a strategic competitor of the U.S. along
with Russia, and the security challenge these two countries pose to the U.S. has been
elevated to the highest priority eclipsing international terrorism. The United States
will pursue a policy of creating a networked regional architecture to push back against
China’s militarization, predatory economic policies and political intimidation by
upgrading cooperation with allies and partners. The South China Sea is singled out for
particular attention. U.S. policy is to keep its sea lanes free and open and guarantee
access to the maritime commons or South China Sea. But the U.S. holds out its hand
to build trust and transparency with China.
Trump’s policy is more assertive both rhetorically and in action. The U.S. has
conducted more freedom of navigation operational patrols in one year than during
two terms under the Obama Administration.
The election of Donald Trump as U.S president removed the “Obama irritant” in
relations with the Philippines. The U.S. has been quite circumspect about Duterte’s
downsizing military training and exercises. And the U.S. stepped in to assist lifting the
siege of Marawi. This earned the Trump Administration some credit in Manila. It is
noticeable, however, that Secretary of Defense James Mattis did not put the
Philippines on his itinerary on his recent visit to promote maritime security with
Indonesia and Vietnam, both South China Sea littoral states.
 2

The key question for Duterte is whether or not he can adjust his pro-China/anti-
American stance of the past and pivot towards managing both sets of relations to the
benefit of the Philippines.
Q2) Duterte and Trump appeared to have established a good rapport at last
November's summit in Manila. Will Philippines-U.S. ties improve under Trump?
ANSWER: Presidents Duterte and Trump have spoken by phone and met personally
without signs of friction. Trump reportedly admires strong leaders including Duterte.
Trump has praised Duterte’s anti-drug campaign without raising the sensitive question
of alleged extrajudicial killings. Whether or not there is an improvement in bilateral
relations will be up to Duterte, the ball is in his court. Trump will respond favourably
to any requests for defense cooperation including weapons sales.
Q3) Is America under Trump losing leadership and clout to China in the region? If yes,
should this be a cause for concern? Without U.S. leadership, should countries like
Australia and Japan stand up and fill the vacuum?
ANSWER: Trump’s first year in office witnessed a drift in U.S. leadership. I think this
period of drift is over. The U.S. National Security Strategy explicitly states that the U.S.
will respond to regional requests to balance China by leading a coalition of states. The
adoption of the Indo-Pacific region as the new moniker and creation of the Quad (U.S.,
Japan Australia and India) will provide the framework. Not all of Trump’s policy is
military. The U.S. National Security Strategy mentions a renewed emphasis of
providing high quality infrastructure through multilateral lending agencies such as the
World Bank. This is an obvious counter to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Japan and Australia have already begun to pick up the strategic slack. They are
advancing closer military cooperation and they appear to have reached agreement on
an eleven-member Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership.
Q4) How has Asia-Pacific changed with Trump as U.S. President?
ANSWER: First, all focus has been placed on the threat of North Korea and nuclear
proliferation. Trump has demonstrated strategic leadership in getting UN Security
Council sanctions approved unanimously and getting China to put pressure on North
Korea. Even Japan and South Korea have been nudged closer, while the U.S. has
bolstered military ties with both.
Second, China has taken advantage of Trump’s first year in office to step in and
attempt to claim leadership of the basis of its model of development and by providing
economic assistance without overt strings attached. This has led other countries,
Japan and Australia in particular, to engage more closely not only with each other but
with regional states. For example, in March Australia and Vietnam will raise bilateral
relations to a strategic partnership.
Q5) What is the future of the Asia-Pacific region with Trump in Washington?
ANSWER: North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear proliferation, China’s continued effort to
displace the United States, and U.S. pushback to retain primacy will be the dominant
themes in the years to come. The Asia Pacific, rebranded the Indo-Pacific by
Washington, will continue to be the engine of global growth. Both China and the
United States can expect to see their economies grow. The Comprehensive and
 3

Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership will likely expand with the addition of more
members. The Asia Pacific/Indo-Pacific will jettison the outdated hub-and-spokes
security architecture with the U.S. at its center, and become a more fluid coalition of
nations working alongside the United States within the framework of the Quad to
balance China. Because the countries in the Asia Pacific/Indo-Pacific are so
economically interdependent, the future of the region will be one of cooperation and
sharpened strategic competition.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “United States: Trump Administration and the
Indo-Pacific – What Lies Ahead?,” Thayer Consultancy Background Report, January 28,
2018. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove
yourself from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the
Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.