Project Report

On

Climate Change: An Analysis

Submitted to:

Dr. B.K. Mahakul

Faculty Member in International Relations

Submitted by:

Ishu Deshmukh

B.A.LL.B. (Hons.) Student

Semester-V, Section-B, Roll No.-81

Submitted on:

August 21st, 2017

Hidayatullah National Law University

Uparwara Post-Abhanpur, New Raipur-493661 (C.G.)
 Declaration

I, Ishu Deshmukh, hereby declare that the project work entitled “Climate Change: An
Analysis” submitted to the Hidayatullah National Law University Raipur is the original work
done by me under the guidance of Dr. B.K. Mahakul, HNLU, Raipur and this project has not
performed the basis for the award of any Degree or diploma and similar project if any.

Signature of the Student

2
 Acknowledgements

I, Ishu Deshmukh, feel myself elated, as it gives me immense pleasure to come with
the work on topic, “Climate Change: An Analysis”. Words fail to express my deep sense of
glee to my teacher, Dr. B.K. Mahakul who enlightened me on my every difficulty in completion
of task. I acknowledge the blessings and support which my mother and father gave in finishing
of this task.

I would like to forward my hearty thanks to my University and Vice-Chancellor for

providing all the necessary requirements which aided me to achieve my goal. I also thanks
Librarian HNLU, Raipur, for assisting me and allowing me to use the library of the University.

I feel a deep sense of thankfulness to all my seniors, my friends who helped me in

achieving my target.

Ishu Deshmukh
SEMESTER- V
ROLL NO.-81

3
 Introduction
Climate change is the rise in average surface temperatures on Earth, mostly due to the burning of
fossil fuels. Climate change, also called global warming, refers to the rise in average surface
temperatures on Earth. An overwhelming scientific consensus maintains that climate change is
due primarily to the human use of fossil fuels, which releases carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases into the air. The gases trap heat within the atmosphere, which can have a range
of effects on ecosystems, including rising sea levels, severe weather events, and droughts that
render landscapes more susceptible to wildfires.

The primary cause of climate change is the burning of fossil fuels, such as oil and coal, which
emits greenhouse gases into the atmosphere—primarily carbon dioxide. Other human activities,
such as agriculture and deforestation, also contribute to the proliferation of greenhouse gases that
cause climate change. While some quantities of these gases are a naturally occurring and critical
part of Earth’s temperature control system, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 did not rise
above 300 parts per million between the advent of human civilization roughly 10,000 years ago
and 1900. Today it is at about 400 ppm, a level not reached in more than 400,000 years.

Even small increases in Earth’s temperature caused by climate change can have severe effects.
The earth’s average temperature has gone up 1.4° F over the past century and is expected to rise
as much as 11.5° F over the next. That might not seem like a lot, but the average temperature
during the last Ice Age was about 4º F lower than it is today. Rising sea levels due to the melting
of the polar ice caps (again, caused by climate change) contribute to greater storm damage;
warming ocean temperatures are associated with stronger and more frequent storms; additional
rainfall, particularly during severe weather events, leads to flooding and other damage; an
increase in the incidence and severity of wildfires threatens habitats, homes, and lives; and heat
waves contribute to human deaths and other consequences. The only solution to climate change
is to slow the flow, to stop altogether, and re-absorb greenhouse gas emissions. Many solutions
have been suggested, such as cap and trade systems, carbon capture and storage, renewable
energy, and geo-engineering. Likely a combination of all of these solutions must be tried if we
are to protect our planet from the most severe predicted effects of climate change.

4
 Overview of Literature

1. V.N. Khanna(2013), International Relations, 5th ed., Vikas Publishing House- It describes the
basidc definition of Climate change, its causes and effects as well as the body which keeps a tab
on climate change.

2. Peu Ghosh (2013), International Relations, 3rd ed., PHI Learning Pvt. Ltd.- This book tells the
various global effects of climate change in a very elaborated manner as well as the impact of
climate change in India.

3. Henry R Nau (2007), Perspectives on International Relations, 4th ed. - This book highlights the
impacts of and the vulnerabilities to climate change in the four regions: Africa, Asia, Latin
America and small island developing States.

4. John Lewis Gaddis (2005), The Cold War – The united Nations Climate change conference
has been described in this book.

5
 Objectives of the Study
Following are the objectives of my study:

1. To understand the meaning of Climate Change and its main reasons.

2. To understand the negative impacts of Climate Change on various regions of the world.

Methodology of the Study

This project is based on Doctrinal Research, which included collection of materials from
library and nearby sources. It includes secondary data sources. This also includes web search.

6
Definition of Climate Change

Climate change is the long-term shift in weather patterns in a specific region or globally. Unlike
global warming, which refers to just one aspect of climate change - a rise in the surface
temperature of the earth’s surface – climate change refers to changes in a regions overall weather
patterns, including precipitation, temperatures, cloud cover, and so on. According to the
scientific experts in the field of climatology, climate change is caused by human activities that
have resulted in an increased concentration of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere, including
carbon dioxide, water vapor, methane, ozone, and nitrous oxide.

Before the Industrial Revolution, levels of carbon dioxide (the main greenhouse gas) were
approximately 280 parts per million (ppm) but have now risen to 386 ppm and are rising by
about 2-3 ppm more every year. When combined into what is known as the carbon dioxide
equivalent with other greenhouse gases such as methane, current levels are actually around 440
ppm. These levels are higher than any other level that can be accurately measured in the earth’s
history.

Some have argued that climate change is actually caused by natural occurrences. However, the
earth’s average surface temperatures have risen by 0.4C since the 1970s, which is an irregular
increase that is extremely difficult to explain by natural causes. Certain changes do occur in the
sun’s activity, volcanic eruptions, and other natural events which all contribute to changes in the
earth’s temperatures, but only an increase in greenhouse gasses can explain the abnormal
increases. Human activities that result in the release of these greenhouse gases well beyond
natural levels include things like deforestation, burning of fossil fuels, changes in wetland
construction, and so forth.1

A Tab on Climate Change

Our understanding of climate change is largely the result of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), the world's most authoritative voice on the topic. Established by the
United Nations, the IPCC assesses the scientific and socio-economic information relevant to

1
http://www.ecolife.com/define/climate-change.html

7
climate change. The IPCC also looks at the potential impacts of climate change, and options for
slowing it down or adapting to it.
The IPCC has released several assessment reports over the years. More than 2,500 scientific
expert reviewers, 800 contributing authors and 450 lead authors from over 130 countries
contributed to the last one, the Fourth Assessment Report.2

Earth’s Natural Greenhouse Effect

Earth’s temperature begins with the Sun. Roughly 30 percent of incoming sunlight is reflected
back into space by bright surfaces like clouds and ice. Of the remaining 70 percent, most is
absorbed by the land and ocean, and the rest is absorbed by the atmosphere. The absorbed solar
energy heats our planet. As the rocks, the air, and the seas warm, they radiate “heat” energy
(thermal infrared radiation). From the surface, this energy travels into the atmosphere where
much of it is absorbed by water vapor and long-lived greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide
and methane.
When they absorb the energy radiating from Earth’s surface, microscopic water or greenhouse
gas molecules turn into tiny heaters— like the bricks in a fireplace, they radiate heat even after
the fire goes out. They radiate in all directions. The energy that radiates back toward Earth heats
both the lower atmosphere and the surface, enhancing the heating they get from direct sunlight.
This absorption and radiation of heat by the atmosphere—the natural greenhouse effect—is
beneficial for life on Earth. If there were no greenhouse effect, the Earth’s average surface
temperature would be a very chilly -18°C (0°F) instead of the comfortable 15°C (59°F) that it is
today.3

PROJECTED EFFECTS
Several effects of global warming, including steady sea level rise, increased cyclonic activity,
and changes in ambient temperature and precipitation patterns, have affected or are projected to
affect the subcontinent. As per the IPCC, depending upon the scenario visualised, the projected

2
http://www.davidsuzuki.org/issues/climate-change/science/climate-change-basics/climate-change-101-1/
3
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page2.php

8
global average surface warming will result in temperature increases world-wide at the end of the
21st Century relative to the end of the 20th Century ranges from 0.6 to 4 °C.4

Regarding local temperature rises, the IPCC figure projected for the mean annual increase in
temperature by the end of the century in South Asia is 3.3 °C with the min-max range as 2.7 -
4.7 °C. The mean value for Tibet would be higher with mean increase of 3.8 °C and min-max
figures of 2.6 and 6.1 °C respectively which implies harsher warming conditions for the
Himalayan watersheds.5

Sea Level and Snow

The corresponding sea level rise at the end of the 21st Century relative to the end of the 20th
Century ranges from 0.18 to 0.59 m (excluding any rapid dynamical changes in ice flows in the
future). 6 Ongoing sea level rises have already submerged several low-lying islands in
the Sundarbans, displacing thousands of people. 7 Temperature rises on the Tibetan Plateau,
which are causing Himalayan glaciers to retreat. It has been predicted that the historical city
of Thatta and Badin, in Sindh, Pakistan would have been swallowed by the sea by 2025, as the
sea is already encroaching 80 acres of land here, every day. 8

Antarctic sea ice may decrease less rapidly than Arctic ice, in part because the Southern Ocean
stores heat at greater depths than the Arctic Ocean, where the heat can’t melt ice as easily. In
many areas of the globe, snow cover is expected to diminish, with snowpack building later in the
cold season and melting earlier in the spring.

Environmental
Increased landslides and flooding are projected to have an impact upon states such as
Assam. Ecological disasters, such as a 1998 coral bleaching event that killed off more than 70%
of corals in the reef ecosystems off Lakshadweep and the Andamans, and was brought on by
elevated ocean temperatures tied to global warming, are also projected to become increasingly
common.

4
Dyson T (1999) Prospects for feeding the world. British Medical Journal, 319:988–990.
5
Celli A (1933) A history of malaria in the Roman Campagna from ancient times. AMS Press Inc., New York.
6
Black RE, Lanata CF (1995) Epidemiology of diarrhoeal diseases in developing countries. In: Infections of the
gastrointestinal tract. Blaser MJ, Smith PD, Ravdin JI, Greenberg HP, Guerrant RI, eds. Raven Press, New York.
7
Barer D, Ebrahim S, Smith C (1984) Factors affecting day to day incidence of stroke in Nottingham. British
Medical Journal, 289:662.
8
<http://www.gefweb.org/projects/focal_areas/climate/documents/
GEF_Support_for_Adaptation_to_Climate_Change.pdf>

9
The first among the countries to be affected by severe climate change is Bangladesh. Its sea
level, temperature and evaporation are increasing, and the changes in precipitation and cross
boundary river flows are already beginning to cause drainage congestion. There is a reduction in
fresh water availability, disturbance of morphologic processes and a higher intensity of flooding
and other such disasters. Bangladesh only contributes 0.1% of the world’s emissions yet it has
2.4% of the world’s population. In contrast, the United States makes up about 5 percent of the
world's population, yet they produce approximately 25 percent of the pollution that causes global
warming.

Economic
The Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research has reported that, if the predictions
relating to global warming made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changecome to
fruition, climate-related factors could cause India's GDP to decline by up to 9%; contributing to
this would be shifting growing seasons for major crops such as rice, production of which could
fall by 40%. Around seven million people are projected to be displaced due to, among other
factors, submersion of parts of Mumbai and Chennai, if global temperatures were to rise by a
mere 2 °C (3.6 °F).

Villagers in India's North Eastern state of Meghalaya are also concerned that rising sea levels
will submerge neighbouring low-lying Bangladesh, resulting in an influx of refugees into
Meghalaya—which has few resources to handle such a situation.

If severe climate changes occur, Bangladesh will lose land along the coast line. This will be
highly damaging to Bangladeshis especially because nearly two-thirds of Bangladeshis are
employed in the agriculture sector, with rice as the single most important product.9

Social
Climate Change in India will have a disproportionate impact on the more than 400 million that
make up India's poor. This is because so many depend on natural resources for their food, shelter
and income. More than 56% of people in India work in agriculture, while many others earn their
living in coastal areas.10

9
<http://www.aiaccproject.org/aiacc.html>
10
<http://www.who.int/globalchange/climate/gefsummary.pdf>

10
Pollution

Thick haze and smoke, originating from burning biomass in northeastern India and air pollution
from large industrial cities in northern India 11 , often concentrate inside the Ganges Basin.
Prevailing western lies carry aerosols along the southern margins of the steep-faced Tibetan
Plateau to eastern India and the Bay of Bengal. Dust and black carbon, which are blown towards
higher altitudes by winds at the southern faces of the Himalayas, can absorb shortwave radiation
and heat the air over the Tibetan Plateau.

Coastlines
Some of Earth’s most densely populated regions lie at low elevation, making rising sea level a
cause for concern. Sea-level rise is projected to continue for centuries in response to
humancaused increases in greenhouse gases, with an estimated 0.5-1.0 meter (20-39 inches) of
mean sea-level rise by 2100. If average sea level rises by 0.5 meters (20 inches) relative to a
1990 baseline, coastal flooding could affect 5 million to 200 million people worldwide. Up to 4
million people could be permanently displaced, and erosion could claim more than 250,000
square kilometers of wetland and dryland (98,000 square miles, an area the size of Oregon).
Relocations are already occurring in towns along the coast of Alaska, where reductions in sea ice
and melting permafrost allow waves to batter and erode the shoreline. Coastal erosion effects at
1.0 meter of sea-level rise would be much greater, threatening many parts of the U.S. coastline.

Ecosystems
Shifts in the timing of the seasons and life-cycle events such as blooming, breeding, and hatching
are causing mismatches between species that disrupt patterns of feeding, pollination, and other
key aspects of food webs. The ability of species to move and adapt also are hampered by human
infrastructural barriers (e.g., roads), land use, and competition or interaction with other species.
In the ocean, circulation changes will be a key driver of ecosystem impacts. Satellite data show
that warm surface waters are mixing less with cooler, deeper waters, separating near-surface
marine life from the nutrients below and ultimately reducing the amount of phytoplankton, which
forms the base of the ocean food web. Climate change will exacerbate this problem in the tropics

11
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

11
and subtropics. Ocean acidification will continue to worsen if CO2 emissions continue unabated
in the decades ahead.

Agriculture and Food Production

The stress of climate change on farming may threaten global food security. Although an increase
in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere favors the growth of many plants, it does not necessarily
translate into more food. In addition, a changing climate will bring other hazards, including
greater water stress and the risk of higher temperature peaks that can quickly damage crops.
Agricultural impacts will vary across regions and by crop. Moderate warming and associated
increases in CO2 and changes in precipitation are expected to benefit crop and pasture lands in
middle to high latitudes but decrease yield in seasonally dry and low-latitude areas. In California,
where half the nation’s fruit and vegetable crops are grown, climate change is projected to
decrease yields of almonds, walnuts, avocados, and table grapes by up to 40 percent by 2050.
Regional assessments for other parts of the world consistently conclude that climate change
presents serious risk to critical staple crops in sub -Saharan African and in places that rely on
water resources from glacial melt and snowpack.

Changing Precipitation Patterns

Projections of changes in precipitation largely follow recently observed patterns of change, with
overall increases in the global average but substantial shifts in where and how precipitation
falls.12 Generally, higher latitudes are projected to receive more precipitation, while the dry belt
that lies just outside the tropics expands further poleward,13 and also receives less rain. Increases
in tropical precipitation are projected during rainy seasons (such as monsoons), and especially
over the tropical Pacific. Certain regions, including the U.S. West (especially the Southwest) and
the Mediterranean, are expected to become drier. The widespread trend toward more heavy
downpours is expected to continue, with precipitation becoming less frequent but more
intense.90 More precipitation is expected to fall as rain rather than snow.

12
http://www.thefreedictionary.com
13
http://reliefweb.int/disaster/fl-2012-000110-ind

12
2015 UNITED NATIONS CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE
The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP 21 or CMP 11 was held in Paris,
France, from 30 November to 12 December 2015. It was the 21st yearly session of
the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 11th session of the Meeting of the Parties to the 1997 Kyoto
Protocol.14

The conference negotiated the Paris Agreement, a global agreement on the reduction of climate
change, the text of which represented a consensus of the representatives of the 196 parties
attending it. The agreement will enter into force when joined by at least 55 countries which
together represent at least 55 percent of global greenhouse emissions.15 On 22 April 2016 (Earth
Day), 174 countries signed the agreement in New York, and began adopting it within their own
legal systems (through ratification, acceptance, approval, or accession).

According to the organizing committee at the outset of the talks, 16 the expected key result was an
agreement to set a goal of limitingglobal warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius (°C) compared
to pre-industrial levels. The agreement calls for zero net anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
to be reached during the second half of the 21st century. In the adopted version of the Paris
Agreement, the parties will also "pursue efforts to" limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. The
1.5 °C goal will require zero emissions sometime between 2030 and 2050, according to some
scientists.17

Prior to the conference, 146 national climate panels publicly presented draft national climate
contributions (called "Intended Nationally Determined Contributions", INDCs). These suggested
commitments were estimated to limit global warming to 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100. For
example, the EU suggested INDC is a commitment to a 40 percent reduction in emissions by
2030 compared to 1990. The agreement establishes a "global stocktake" which revisits the
national goals to "update and enhance" them every five years beginning 2023. 18 However, no
detailed timetable or country-specific goals for emissions were incorporated into the Paris

14
Climate Change, Disasters and Security……Issues, Concerns and Implications for India By Sunil Chauhan
15
Flood: Trends and Social Impacts in Indian context
16
Joshi P.C.11, KhattriKhattriP.P.11, Singh M.M., M.22, , Fordham M.33and and GuhaGuha Sapir D
17
<http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2005/sbi/eng/18a05.pdf>
18
United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean press release.
<http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/JCDR-677LG5?OpenDocument>

13
Agreement – as opposed to the previous Kyoto Protocol. A number of meetings took place in
preparation for COP21, including the Bonn Climate Change Conference, 19 to 23 October 2015,
which produced a draft agreement.

Outcome
On 12 December 2015, the participating 195 countries agreed, by consensus, to the final global
pact, the Paris Agreement, to reduce emissions as part of the method for reducing greenhouse
gas. In the 12-page document, the members agreed to reduce their carbon output "as soon as
possible" and to do their best to keep global warming "to well below 2 degrees C".19 In the
course of the debates, island states of the Pacific, the Seychelles, but also the Philippines, their
very existence threatened by sea level rise, had strongly voted for setting a goal of 1.5 °C instead
of only 2 °C. France's Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius, said this "ambitious and balanced" plan
was an "historic turning point" in the goal of reducing global warming. However, some others
criticized the fact that significant sections are "promises" or aims and not firm commitments by
the countries.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON INDIA

Climate change will make monsoons unpredictable and as a result, rain-fed wheat cultivation in
South Asia will suffer in a big way and the total cereal production will go down.
Industrial development is important for economic growth, employment generation and
improvement in the quality of life.

However, industrial activities without proper precautionary measures for environmental

protection are known to cause pollution and associated problems. If ecological and
environmental criteria are forsaken, "industrialise and perish" will be the nature's retort.
The recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the latest scientific
assessment of the impact of global warming on human, animal and plant life. The culprit is
greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. These are accumulating to

19
<http://unfccc.int/national_reports/non-annex_i_natcom/items/2979.php>

14
unprecedented levels in the atmosphere as a result of profligate burning of fossil fuels, industrial
processes, farming activities and changing land use. 20

The greenhouse gases act like a blanket around the earth, trapping too much of the heat that
would otherwise have escaped into space. The IPCC is a body of 2500 scientists that brings out
reports, considered the last word on the Science of Climate Change. "Warming of the Climate
System is unequivocal", says the IPCC in its latest report, pointing to the increased global, air
and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow, and ice and rising sea levels.

If the introduction of these greenhouse gases continued to soar, global temperature could rise up
by 2.40C to 6.40 C by the end of the century, with far-reaching consequences for the climate,
warned the IPCC. The report has given fresh impetus to finding solutions to the global warming
problem. The summit meeting of the Group of Eight Industrialised countries (G8) to be held in
June in Germany is expected to launch new initiatives for collective action by both rich nations
and fast growing developing countries to combat climate change.

The Arctic regions, Sub-Saharan Africa, small islands and Asian mega deltas, including the
Ganga and Brahmaputra, will be affected most. Changes in climate around the globe are
expected to trigger a steep fall in the production of cereals, says R K Pachauri, chairman of the
IPCC. He estimated that a rise of 0.5 degree Celsius in winter tempratures could cause a 0.45
tonne per hectare fall in India's wheat production. The average per hectare production in India is
2.6 tonnes. Worse still, Pachauri said, total agricultural land will shrink and the available land
may not remain suitable for the present crops for too long. Farmers have to explore options of
changing crops suitable to weather. He also pointed out that climatic changes could lead to major
food security issues for a country like India. The report also predicts huge coastal erosion due to
a rise in sea levels of about 40 cm resulting from faster melting of glaciers in the Himalayan and
Hindukush ranges. It can affect half-a-million people in India because of excessive flooding in
coastal areas and also can increase the salinity of ground water in the Sunderbans and surface
water in coastal areas. India needs to sustain an 8 to 10 per cent economic growth rate, over the
next 25 years, if it is to eradicate poverty and meet its human development goals, according to a
2006 report on an integrated energy policy prepared by an expert committee of the Planning

20
Presentation from Ms. Balgis Osman Elasha, UNFCCC African Regional Workshop on Adaptation, Accra,
Ghana, 21 to 23 September 2006. <http://unfccc.int/3743.php>

15
Commission. Consequently, the country needed at the very least to increase its primary energy
supply three or four -fold over the 2003-04 level. 21

REGIONAL IMPACTS OF AND VULNERABILITIES TO

CLIMATE CHANGE

This topic highlights the impacts of and the vulnerabilities to climate change in the four regions:
Africa, Asia, Latin America and small island developing States.

AFRICA

Africa is already a continent under pressure from climate stresses and is highly vulnerable to the
impacts of climate change. Many areas in Africa are recognized as having climates that are
among the most variable in the world on seasonal and decadal time scales. Floods and droughts
can occur in the same area within months of each other. These events can lead to famine and
widespread disruption of socio-economic well-being. The overexploitation of land resources
including forests, increases in population, desertification and land degradation pose additional
threats. In the Sahara and Sahel, dust and sand storms have negative impacts on agriculture,
infrastructure and health.22
As a result of global warming, the climate in Africa is predicted to become more variable, and
extreme weather events are expected to be more frequent and severe, with increasing risk to
health and life. This includes increasing risk of drought and flooding in new areas and inundation
due to sea-level rise in the continent’s coastal areas. Africa will face increasing water scarcity
and stress with a subsequent potential increase of water conflicts as almost all of the 50 river
basins in Africa are transboundary. Under climate change much agricultural land will be lost,
with shorter growing seasons and lower yields. Africa is vulnerable to a number of climate
sensitive diseases including malaria, tuberculosis and diarrhoea. Future climate variability will
also interact with other stresses and vulnerabilities such as HIV/AIDS (which is already reducing
life expectancy in many African countries) and conflict and war (Harrus and Baneth 2005),
21
http://www.rediff.com/money/2007/jun/05clim.htm
22
Adapted from a presentation given by Ms. Pasha Carruthers on this topic at the UNFCCC CGE Regional Hands-
on Training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for the Asia and the Pacific Region, held in
Jakarta, Indonesia on 20 to 24 March 2006.

16
resulting in increased susceptibility and risk to infectious diseases (e.g. cholera and diahrrhoea)
and malnutrition for adults and children (WHO 2004). Climate change is an added stress to
already threatened habitats, ecosystems and species in Africa, and is likely to trigger species
migration and lead to habitat reduction.

ASIA
The region faces formidable environmental and socio-economic challenges in its effort to protect
valuable natural resources. Land and ecosystems are being degraded, threatening to undermine
food security. In addition, water and air quality are deteriorating while continued increases in
consumption and associated waste have contributed to the exponential growth in the region’s
existing environmental problems. Furthermore, the region is highly subject to natural hazards,
such as the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the 2005 Pakistan Earthquake, and the 2006 landslides
in the Philippines. There is evidence of prominent increases in the intensity and/or frequency of
many extreme weather events such as heat waves, tropical cyclones, prolonged dry spells,
intense rainfall, tornadoes, snow avalanches, thunderstorms, and severe dust storms in the region.
Impacts of such disasters range from hunger and susceptibility to disease, to loss of income and
livelihoods, affecting human survival and well-being. For example the extreme weather events in
China during 2006 included major storms and flooding in the east and south, as well as heat and
drought in central, western and northeastern egions, killing more that 2700 people and causing
USD 20 billion in damages.
Under climate change, predicted rainfall increases over most of Asia, particularly during the
summer monsoon, could increase flood-prone areas in East Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia.
In Central and South Asia, crop yields are predicted to fall by up to 30 per cent, creating a very
high risk of hunger in several countries. Global warming is causing the melting of glaciers in the
Himalayas. In the short term, this means increased risk of flooding, erosion, mudslides and
GLOF in Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and north India during the wet season. Because the
melting of snow coincides with the summer monsoon season, any intensification of the monsoon
and/or increase in melting is likely to contribute to flood disasters in Himalayan catchments. In
the longer term, global warming could lead to a rise in the snowline and disappearance of many
glaciers causing serious impacts on the populations relying on the 7 main rivers in Asia fed by
melt water from the Himalayas. Throughout Asia one billion people could face water shortage

17
leading to drought and land degradation by the 2050s. In Asia, the principal impacts of climate
change on health will be on epidemics of malaria, dengue, and other vector-borne diseases. The
global burden of climate change-attributable diarrhoea and malnutrition are already the largest in
the world in Southeast Asian countries including Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar
and Nepal in 2000. Fisheries in both fresh water and sea water could be affected. Fisheries at
higher elevations are likely to be adversely affected by lower availability of oxygen due to a rise
in surface air temperatures.

LATIN AMERICA
Latin America includes much of the world’s biological diversity, as well as a wide variety of
ecosystems, climatic regions, topographies and land-use patterns. Torrential rains and resulting
floods, including those associated with tropical cyclones, have result in tens of thousand of
deaths and severe economic losses and social disruption in the region in recent years 23 , for
example in 1998 hurricane Mitch caused 10,000 deaths and severe damage to infrastructure, with
Honduras and Nicaragua the worst hit. Northeast Brazil, on the other hand, is particularly
affected by drought and its associated socio-economic impacts.
Higher rates of economic recession correspond with greater flows of water, which cause erosion,
flooding and mudslides in lowland areas. However, as the glaciers disappear – such as the
Chacaltaya Glacier in Bolivia, predicted to disappear within the next 15 years – flows will tail
off dramatically leading to serious water shortages, reduced hydropower, greater risks of
drought, as well as flooding, and serious environmental degradation. There are uncertainties over
the effects of climate change on rainfall in Latin America. However it is predicted that arid and
semi-arid areas will receive even less rain under climate change leading to degradation of
agricultural land and impacting food security. As well as through extreme events, the main risks
of climate change on health and life are from heat stress – particularly due to urban heat island
effects in megacities, and transmissible diseases including malaria, dengue and cholera.
Rodent-borne infections can also increase after floods and droughts such as leptospirosis and
Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome. Expected increases in forest fires due to warmer, drier climate
and increased deforestation and forest fragmentation are likely to heighten the vulnerability of
the population to the health impacts of biomass burning smoke, the effects of which have already
23
<http://unfccc.int/2631.php>

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been observed in Brazil. The Amazon Basin is home to some 40 per cent of the world’s
remaining tropical forest and contains one of the Earth’s richest assortments of biodiversity;
thousands of species of plants, over a million insect species, more than 700 fish species, 1,000
bird species, and over 300 mammalian species. The reduction of tropical forest area, especially
in the tropical rainforests, will probably entail the loss of many species.

SMALL ISLAND DEVELOPING STATES

The small island developing States comprise States and Territories spread over the Pacific,
Indian and Atlantic Oceans and Caribbean Sea, and are highly vulnerable to the effects of
climate change and already feeling its impacts. The climate of SIDS is influenced by large ocean
atmosphere interactions such as trade winds, El Niño and the monsoons. Small island developing
States are characterized by the concentration of large settlements with associated economic and
social activities at or near the coast. Increases in population and the unsustainable use of
available natural resources add further problems. Tropical storms and cyclones cause storm
surges, coral bleaching, inundation of land, and coastal and soil erosion with resulting high-cost
damages to socio-economic and cultural infrastructure. Vulnerabilities include low availability of
resources, a small but rapidly growing population, remoteness, susceptibility to natural disasters,
excessive dependence on international trade, and vulnerability to global developments. Water
supply in SIDS is likely to be exacerbated by future climate change. Freshwater lenses are
predicted to reduce in size due to increased demand and reduced rainfall. It has been estimated
that a 10 per cent reduction in average rainfall by 2050 could produce a 20 per cent reduction in
the size of the freshwater lens on the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati, and reduce the thickness of the
freshwater lens on atolls by as much as 29 percent. Freshwater supplies are also threatened by
saltwater intrusion due to storm surge and sea level rise. The projected impacts of climate change
on agriculture include extended periods of drought, loss of soil fertility and shortening of the
growing season which will lead to major economic losses and seriously affect food security.

Sea level rise, increasing sea surface temperatures and acidification of the oceans will entail a
loss of mangrove forests and coral reefs and reduced fish stocks throughout this region. Climate
change is also likely to have a negative effect on tourism in SIDS, seriously affecting the
economy of many small islands.

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 CONCLUSION
Indian media can contribute to increased awareness of climate change and related issues. A
qualitative analysis of some mainstream Indian newspapers (particularly opinion and editorial
pieces) during the release of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report and during the Nobel Peace Prize
win by Al Gore and the IPCC found that Indian media strongly pursue the frame of scientific
certainty in their coverage of climate change. This is in contrast to the scepticism displayed by
American newspapers at the time. Alongside, Indian media highlight frames of energy challenge,
social progress, public accountability and looming disaster. This sort of coverage finds parallels
in European media narratives as well and helps build a transnational, globalised discourse on
climate change. Another study has found that the media in India are divided along the lines of a
north-south, risk-responsibility discourse.[18] However, much more research is required to
analyse Indian media's role in shaping public perceptions on climate change.

Tribal people in India's remote northeast plan to honour former U.S. Vice President Al Gore with
an award for promoting awareness on climate change that they say will have a devastating
impact on their homeland.

People are becoming aware of ills of global warming. Taking initiative on their own people from
Sangamner, Maharashtra (near Shirdi) have started a campaign of planting trees known as
Dandakaranya- The Green Movement. It was started by visionary & ace freedom fighter the late
Shri Bhausaheb Thorat in the year 2005. To date, they have sowed more than 12 million seeds &
planted half a million plants.

According to data from 2009 India is the world's third biggest emitter of CO2 after China and the
United States - pushing Russia into fourth place.

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 Bibliography

Books:

1. V.N. Khanna(2013), International Relations, 5th ed., Vikas Publishing House

2. Peu Ghosh (2013), International Relations, 3rd ed., PHI Learning Pvt. Ltd.
3. Henry R Nau (2007), Perspectives on International Relations, 4th ed.
4. John Lewis Gaddis (2005), The Cold War
5. Robert J. McMahon (2003), The Cold War A Very Short Introduction, Oxford University
Press.
6. Jeremy Isaacs (1998), Cold War- For Forty FiveYears The World Held Its Breath.

Websites:

1. www.google.ac.in

2. <http://unfccc.int/2631.php>

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