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Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123


Cambodia: Hun Sen Threatens
to Sink Australia-ASEAN
Summit Joint Statement
February 22, 2018

I would like to ask you about Prime Minister Hun Sen’s warning on Wednesday (21
February) to block any joint communique at the upcoming Australia-ASEAN summit in
Sydney if he receives criticism over the political crackdown in Cambodia.
His warning is in response to some critics who say that the Australian Government will
criticize Prime Minister Hun Sen for political and human rights abuses in Cambodia.
Q1. What is your assessment about Hun Sen’s warning?
ANSWER: Hun Sen’s warning is all bluster and aimed mainly at his domestic audience.
Hun Sen aims to show he is so powerful he can block a joint statement emanating
from the Australia-ASEAN Summit. There is no foundation for his warning as the
centre-piece of the ASEAN Way is non-interference in the internal affairs of another
country. There is no possibility that the joint statement would refer to Hun Sen’s brutal
assault on democracy at home.
Q2. Can Prime Minister Hun Sen actually prevent the joint statement from being
issued?
ANSWER: ASEAN operates on the basis of consensus. Cambodia demonstrated in
2012, when acting as ASEAN Chair, that it could block release of a joint statement
because of its reference to the South China Sea. Cambodia has turned this
obstructionism into an art form. Hun Sen continually ingratiates himself to Beijing by
blocking any wording that could be read as a criticism of China in the expectation he
will receive a reward for his effort.
Q3. Do you think that the Australian Government would involve itself with
Cambodia politics?
ANSWER: Opposition leader Sam Rainsy just visited Canberra and spoke at the
National Press Club. He called on Australia, which played a major role in the settlement
of the Cambodian conflict, to take a lead role in getting the democratic states that
participated in the Paris Conference on Cambodia in 1991 to meet to put pressure on
Hun Sen to ensure the survival of a liberal multiparty democratic system. This system
was mentioned in the Paris accords and five times in the current Cambodian
Constitution.
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The Australian government has been conspicuous for its silence on the denouement
of democracy in Cambodia and there has been no public response to Sam Rainsy’s call.
There are more important issues in Australia’s relations with ASEAN to be discussed
at the Summit and the Australian government would not want to make these issues
hostage to the whims of Hun Sen.
Q4. What would happen if Cambodia was criticized despite Hun Sen’s warning?
Who would lose from this?
ANSWER: Hun Sen’s warning that Cambodia will be criticized is unlikely to eventuate.
Other members of ASEAN would not permit a joint statement in their names to
criticize a fellow member. If Australia or any other country made an attempt to refer
to Cambodia’s domestic politics it would be a clumsy effort and doomed to fail. It
would be a diplomatic setback for whatever country tried to criticize Hun Sen in this
way. Other members of ASEAN would be upset because it would derail progress on
ASEAN-Australian relations across a number of areas. It would represent a major
embarassment for the host country, Australia.
Such an eventuality – criticism of Cambodia in the Australia-ASEAN joint statement -
is never likely to happen. What will occur, however, is that Australian citizens of
Cambodian origin are likely to stage public protests to draw attention to Hun Sen
autocratic and anti-democratic actions. Hun Sen’s very presence in Australia will draw
attention to his anti-democratic policies. Hun Sen’s surrogates in Australia are already
busy trying to organize pro-Hun Sen activities.
Hun Sen will be the looser because his presence at the Australia-ASEAN Summit in
Sydney will generate negative publicity. It would be best for Hun Sen if he stayed at
home.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia Hun Sen Threatens to Sink Australia-
ASEAN Summit Joint Statement,” Thayer Consultancy Bibliography, February 22, 2018.
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

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