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activities on downstream states. The second MLC Leaders’ Meeting appears to have
sidestepped this contentious issue, however Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan
Phuc reportedly raised this issue with his Chinese counterpart.
Q3. Would you agree there are the ingredients for simmering discontent, nationalist
and Lower Mekong resentment towards Chinese hegemony? More droughts could
trigger stronger feelings that China can turn the water tap on and off from the upper
Mekong. Is this the basis for destabilization unless downstream concerns are
addressed?
ANSWER: Farmers in Cambodia and Vietnam that are affected by draught during the
dry season have and will continue to express their resentment towards China. But the
circumstances in each Lower Mekong country differs. Anti-China sentiment in Vietnam
is already toxic because of maritime disputes in the South China Sea. Any Chinese
mishandling of water flows in the dry season will add to anti-China sentiments in
Vietnam. Cambodia’s Hun Sen is likely to repress any anti-China sentiment.
The picture is mixed because of dam construction by Laos and siphoning off of water
for irrigation by Thailand. This makes it difficult for national governments to direct
domestic anger at China alone. Vietnam is likely to be the most vocal and proactive in
pressing China to take action.
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