Caribbean Advanced Proficiency Examination

Integrated Mathematics

Topic : Fatal traffic accidents occurring along urban centers

Name of Center: Saint Stanislaus College

Center Code: 090047

Name of Candidate: Carlos John Gonsalves

Registration Number: 0900470267

Territory: Guyana

Year of exam: 2017

Teacher: Mrs. Greenich

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ………………………………………………………………..1

PROJECT TITLE …………………………………………………………………………..2

INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………………………………3

METHODOLOGY……...……………………………………………………………………5

ORGANIZATION OF DATA…….…………………………………………………………7

PRESENTATION OF FINDINGS……………………………………………………….....10

ANALYSIS OF DATA ………...……………………………………………………………..15

INTERRETATION OF FINDINGS……………………………………………..…………..19

RECCOMMENDATIONS…………………………………………………………………..21

CONCLUSIONS……………………………………………………………………………...22

BIBLIOGRAPHY…………………………………………………………………….……...23

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 Acknowledgements

The researcher would like to express heartfelt gratitude to the ones that rendered assistance during
the completion of this Internal assessment, namely, God, his family and his Caribbean Studies
teacher, miss Roxanne La Fleur

1
 Project Title

“An examination of motor traffic accidents occurring in Urban centers and adjoining Roadways in
Guyana”

2
Guyana, being a developing country, is known to have a high volume of motor traffic, especially

in the country’s capital Georgetown and other urban areas. Within the past few decades the volume

and varieties of motor transport, both private and commercial, has skyrocketed. The urban centers

of Guyana houses a large portion of the country’s population, and hence, congestion, driver error

or recklessness, slack legislation and enforcement often leads to a great deal of accidents which

cause damage to life, limb and property.

The selection of this topic is rooted in several reasons, including the continued rise of fatal road

traffics accidents, the continuous apparent disregard for road laws by some drivers and a personal

interest in the topic since the researcher is, himself a daily driver or passenger in a motor vehicle

on the roadways of Guyana.

The researcher employed the use of quantitative data as the preferred data to be used in this project.

“it emphasizes objective measurements and the statistical, mathematical, or numerical analysis if

data collected through polls, questionnaires, and surveys, or by manipulating pre-existing

statistical data using computational techniques. Quantitative research focuses on gathering

numerical data and generalizing it across groups of people or to explain a particular phenomenon.”1

Quantitative data were used for secondary sources of data.

The researcher aims to:

 To find the probability that a person traveling along the highways between settlements

would be a fatality in a traffic accident.

1
Babbie, Earl R. The Practice of Social Research. 12th ed. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth Cengage, 2010; Muijs,
Daniel. Doing Quantitative Research in Education with SPSS. 2nd edition. London: SAGE Publications, 2010.

3
 To determine the average number of road fatalities over the past nine years and the

dominant causes of these accidents.

 To determine what category of road user is in the most danger of becoming a fatality.

4
For this project, the research employed was non experimental. This means that it “is the label given

to a study when a researcher cannot control, manipulate or alter the predictor variable or subjects,

but instead, relies on interpretation, observation or interactions to come to a conclusion. Typically,

this means the non-experimental researcher must rely on correlations, surveys or case studies, and

cannot demonstrate a true cause-and-effect relationship. Non-experimental research tends to have

a high level of external validity, meaning it can be generalized to a larger population.”2 For the

purpose of this project, the researcher employs statistical data retrieved from official books of the

Guyana police force traffic division to prove if fatal traffic accidents have been on the rise.

In conducting the study utilizing preexisting statistical data, the researcher utilized fatal accidents

occurring on roadways in or between urbanized areas, these included the towns (excluding

Lethem) and capital city of Georgetown. This was used as vast majority of Guyanese only travel

along these roads and these are the roads where majority of accidents occur. The ‘population’

being studied included all users of roadways in the study area. With reference to geographic urban

population breakdown provided by the official census of Guyana 2012, the target population stands

at 608,528 Guyanese or 76.1 percent of the total population of Guyana. This method was

employed as it gave all persons equal consideration.

2
http://study.com/academy/lesson/non-experimental-and-experimental-research-differences-advantages-
disadvantages.html

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To accurately determine the major causes of fatal road traffic accidents, the researcher employed

the use of statistical data as the data collection method. The statistical data played a vital role in

this project since it effectively serves for accurately capturing the various elements of each fatal

accident including age of fatalities, causes, category of road users that account for fatalities etc.

With statistical data, the data to be easily categorized and tabulated. The data was collected at the

Traffic police headquarters at evelery , Georgetown Guyana. This was done on the 28th of January,

2017.

As a Data Coding technique, The researcher utilized the built in tools on Microsoft excel to present

the raw data into a structured format in a spreadsheet so as it could be easily interpreted. The data

was further tabulated and presented into frequency tables for preservation purposes, the database

was saved and encrypted utilizing Kaspersky security software

During the completion of this project, several challenges were faced. Firstly, the collection of the

official police statistics was limited to three years prior to the current date as previous could not

be found at the time of the researcher’s visit. Secondly, the data cited prior to 2014 was extracted

from news sources which was based on the official police records that were missing, but no form

of corroboration existed for the researcher to verify these statistics first hand.

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 Figure 1: Road fatalities for the period 2008 - 2016

YEAR TALLY FREQUENCY

2008 |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| 110

|||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| ||||

|||| |||| |||| |||| ||||

2009 |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| 116

|||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| ||||

|||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |

2010 |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| 115

|||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| ||||

|||| |||| |||| |||| |||| ||||

2011 |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| 103

|||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| ||||

|||| |||| |||| |||

2012 |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| 110

|||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| ||||

|||| |||| |||| |||| ||||

2013 |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| 112

|||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| ||||

|||| |||| |||| |||| |||| ||

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 2014 |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| 146

|||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| ||||

|||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| ||||

|||| |||| |

2015 |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| 126

|||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| ||||

|||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |

2016 |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| 128

|||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| ||||

|||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||

Figure 2: Road user fatalities for the period 2008 - 2016

Road user 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total per

category

Driver 21 9 17 20 17 16 21 19 140

Passengers 19 21 19 15 22 23 32 27 178

Pedestrians 42 40 38 34 39 60 42 38 333

Motor 15 24 12 19 18 26 16 23 153

Cyclists

other 19 21 17 22 16 21 15 21 152

Total 116 115 103 110 112 146 126 128 956

8
 Figure 3: Age of driver involved in fatal accidents from 2014 - 2016

Age of drivers 2014 2015 2016 Total per

category
16-25 41 30 34 105
26-35 49 49 54 152
36-45 35 27 28 90
46-55 23 15 24 62
55 plus 32 14 21 67
Total 180 135 161 476

Figure 4: fatal areas for the years 2014 – 2016

Areas Deaths in 2014 Deaths in 2015 Deaths in 2016 Total fatalities

East Bank 53 34 68 155
Demerara
Georgetown 16 18 10 44
East coast 7 13 1 21
Demerara
West bank 7 18 11 36
demerara
West coast 16 9 11 36
demerara
Essequibo 14 9 12 35
Berbice 29 25 15 69
Total 146 126 128 400

Figure 5: Causes for fatal accidents over the past 3 years

Causes of fatal Number of fatalities Number of Number of Total

accidents in 2014 fatalities in 2015 fatalities in
2016
Speeding 87 51 67 205
DUI 10 17 17 44
Inattentiveness 33 35 26 94
Failure to 5 1 1 7
comply to signs
Breach of traffic 0 1 4 5
light
Error of 0 1 2 3
judgement
358

9
 Figure 6: Bar graph depicting the fatality for the period 2008 - 2016

128
2016

126
2015

146
2014

2013 112

2012 110

2011 103

2010
115

2009
116

2008
110
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Source: Newspaper articles

Figure 6 illustrates the trends of traffic fatalities over a nine year period. We can see the figure

fluctuating between the years 2008 – 2011 with, 110,116,115 and 103 fatalities respectively, it

then starts to climb from 2012 – 2016 with 110, 112, 146, 126 and 128 fatalities respectively.

10
 Figure 7: Line graph showing fatalities for categories of road users for the years 2009- 2016

Drivers Passengers Pedestrians Motor cyclists Other

70

60
60

50

42 42
Number of fatalities

40 39
40 38 38
34
32

30 26 27
24 22 23
21 21 20 22 23 21
19 19 16
17
20 18
19 21 21
19 21
17 16 17
15 16
9
10 12 15
19
15

0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year

Figure 3 shows the trends for the various category of road user fatalities, we can see that

pedestrians remain consistently higher that other road user fatalities with a total of 333 total

fatalities, The remaining four categories fluctuate over the years very similarly, with passengers

being the second most Affected road user with 178 fatalities followed closely by motorcyclists

and other road users ( bicycles, persons being towed on bicycles, persons on back of motor cycles)

with 153 and 152 deaths each and lastly by drivers with 140 fatalities over the examined period.

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 Figure 8: Ages of drivers involved in fatal accidents for the period 2014-2016

60
54

49 49
50

41
Number of Fatal accidents

40
34 35
32
30
30 27 28 2014
23 24 2015
21
2016
20
15 14

10

0
16-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 55 plus
Age range of drivers

Figure 8 depicts the breakdown of the ages of drivers involved in fatal accidents. The x axis denotes

the age categories while the y axis denotes the number of drivers for each corresponding age

category. The 26-35 range possess the highest figures with 49,49 and 54 for each respective year

followed by the 16-25 category with 41,30 and 34 accidents respectively

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 Figure 9: Stacked bar graph depicting fatalities according to geographic boundary

2016 68 10 11 11 12 15
YEAR

2015 34 18 13 18 9 9 25

2014 53 16 7 7 16 14 29

NUMBER OF DEATHS

East Bank Demerara Georgetown East Coast Demerara

West Bank Demerara West coast Demerara Essequibo
Berbice

Figure 9 illustrates the number of fatalities for each corresponding geographic boundary for the

years 2014-2016 according to official police records. For 2014 we can see the most dangerous

areas in Descending order are the East Bank of Demerara (53), Berbice (29), Georgetown and the

West Coast of Demerara ( 16 each) and Essequibo and the East coast and west bank of Demerara

(7 each) .

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 Figure 10: Causes of fatal accidents for the period 2014-2016

2%

1%
2%

26%
Speeding

DUI

Inattentiveness
57%
Failure to comply to Signs

Breach of Traffic lights

12%
Error of Judgement

Figure 10 shows the Causes of fatal accidents over the period 2014-2016 as a percentage of the

total number of accidents, which is 358. Speeding accounted for 205 fatalities in total with 87 in

2014, 51 in 2015 and 67 in 2016. DUI accounted for 44, with 10 in 2014, 17 in 2015 and 17 in

2016. Inattentiveness summed up to 94, with 33, 35 and 26 for the period 2014-2016 while failure

to comply to signs resulted in 7 total fatalities, 5 in 2014 and 1 each in 2015 and 2016. Breach of

traffic lights accounted for 5 fatalities, with none in 2014, 1 in 2015 and 4 in 2016 while 3 accidents

resulted from error of judgement with 1 in 2015 and 2 in 2016.

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Measures of Central Tendency

 Mean

The researcher intends to calculate the average number of fatalities in traffic accidents over the
past nine years using the formula:

= 110 + 116 + 115 + 103 + 110 + 112 + 146 + 126 + 128

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= 118.4

This shows that an average of 118 persons died each year while using the roadways of the country
for the period 2008-2016.

Following the same formula the following average number of fatalities for the period 2009 – 2016
were established

 Drivers = 140/8

= 17.5 Fatalities

 Passengers = 178/8

= 22.3 Fatalities

 Pedestrians = 333/8

= 41.6 Fatalities

 Motor Cyclists = 153/8

=19.1 Fatalities
 Other road users = 152/8
=19 Fatalities

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Measures of Relative Position

 Probability-

The researcher intends to calculate the probability of a random road user (both general and
specified categories) being a fatality in a road accident using the following formula:

Number of specified outcomes

Number of possible outcomes
For all Calculations on measures of relative position the sample space is 608,528.

Hence the probability of a road user being a road traffic fatality is

1’066
608,528
= 0.001751768
= 0.0018
= 9 .
5000
 Probability of a driver becoming a fatality

= 140
608528
= 0.000230063
=0.00023
= 23
100000
 Probability of a passenger becoming a fatality
= 178
608528
= 0.000292509
= 0.00029
= 29
100000

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 Probability of a pedestrian becoming a fatality

= 333
608528
= 0.000547222
= 0.00055
= 11
20000
 Probability of a motor Cyclist becoming a Fatality

153
608528
= 0.000251426
= 0.00025
=1
4000
 Probability of ‘other’ road users becoming a fatality
152
608528

= 0.000249783
= 0.00025
=1
4000

17
Measures of Variability

 Variance and Standard Deviation

The researcher intends to calculate the Variance and Standard deviation of the Ages of drivers
involved in fatal accidents.

Variance = 105 + 152 + 90 + 62 + 67

5
= 476
5
= 95.2
=95

σ2= (105 – 95)2 + (152 – 95)2 + (90 – 95)2 + (62- 95)2 + (67 – 95)2
5
= 102 + 572 -52 - 332 – 282
5
= 100 + 3249 + (-25) + (-1089) + (-784)
5
= 1451
5
= 290.2
= 290
Hence, the Standard Deviation: σ = √𝟐𝟗𝟎
= 17.029
= 17

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After conducting the research, a great deal of information was provided for each of the objectives.

The data was analyzed using three distinct statistical tools, namely measures of Central Tendency,

Measures of relative position and measures of variability

In relation to objective one, determining the probability of a person traversing the roadways

between urban settlements becoming a fatality in a road accident, the measure of relative position

was used. The researcher totaled the amount of fatalities and divided the figure by the target

population, namely, the proportion of Guyana’s population that resides within and between the

major towns and city (608,528) Collectively, it was discovered that a random road traveler, at any

given time has a 0.0018 % chance of dying in a road accident, or a 9 in 5000 chance, which a

breakdown of the probabilities for each category of road users indicate that the chance of dying in

a road accident is very slim since it does not exceed 0.00055 or 11 in 20000.

Objective two dealt with the average number of road fatalities per year and the dominant causes

for these fatalities. This was calculated utilizing the measure of Central Tendency where the total

fatality figure was found and then divided by the period of years the data was collected over. Which

translated to 1066 fatalities divided by 9 years for an average of 118 fatalities per year. The mean

for each category of road user was also specified. In relation to the causes of these accidents, data

was provided for both the immediate cause and the human aspect for 3 years prior. The primary

causes of the accidents were speeding, driving under the influence of alcohol and inattentiveness.

Which accounted for 343 out of 358 accidents (96%). These causes are often interdependent. This

evidence is supported by the corresponding age ranges of drivers involved in fatal accidents with

the three youngest categories of drivers accounting for 73% of fatal accidents between 2014 -2016.

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The anomaly present in the data that seems to not the causes of fatal accidents with the age of the

drivers would be that drivers above age 46 account for a total of 129 fatal accidents, however

alcoholism and inattentiveness would also be higher in this age range. The sole primary cause can

be equated to speeding which would be the major contributing factor towards accidents.

Upon determining the causes, the third objective was addressed, which was the determining of the

category of road user most susceptible to harm. In terms of the drivers involved, a measure of

variability was employed to determine the variance and standard deviation of the amount of fatal

accidents each category of driver is involved in . The average number of accidents was calculated

at 95 per category, using the population formula for standard deviation, the standard deviation was

calculated to be 17. Therefore the most susceptible category of drivers were ages 26-35 which had

more than 3 standard deviations above the mean.

In relation to which category of road user is most vulnerable, Pedestrians were identified as most

vulnerable as they accounted for 35 % of total fatalities. This is so, since many pedestrians and

drivers alike ignore safety and road use protocols.

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The completion of this research project solidified the view that several new measures needed to be

put into place to help curb the high number of road traffic deaths in Guyana.

 Firstly, the researcher would recommend the implementation of automated security

barriers that rise with red light, restricting vehicles from passing and lower with a green

light, allowing them to past, hence making it incredibly difficult to breach traffic lights.

In addition, cars should be required to have a mandatory first aid kit, so as to aid in the event of a

crash.

 Secondly, a database with all number plates and registered owners should be created and

implemented alongside with high powered cameras at fixed points along high traffic and

high danger roads capable of motion tracking to identify speeding vehicles. This can be

implemented with a automated software that automatically fines or issues the vehicle

owner a speeding ticket.

 New legislation should be introduced that affixes stricter penalties to those behind the

wheel in the event of an error or recklessness which includes but is not limited to treating

speeding as attempted murder.

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In conclusion, one can safely assert, due to the facts derived from the data that the probability of a

random road user dying in a road accident is very small (0.0018% chance) this small margin of

risk is also reflected in the probabilities for different road users.

It can also be vividly seen that the average number of fatal road accidents is 118 per year while

the individual category with the highest average fatalities were pedestrians with 42 per year. These

accidents and subsequent deaths were primarily caused by young drivers 16 – 35 who were

primarily speeding, under the influence of alcohol or inattentive.

Also, it can be seen that the user in the most danger of becoming a fatality, with regard to drivers,

the most susceptible to harm were drivers aged 16 – 35, while pedestrians were the most heavily

affected road users.

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 http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/littlebook/statisticsrelationships.

htm (Retrieved 8th February, 2017)

 http://study.com/academy/lesson/non-experimental-and-experimental-research-

differences-advantages-disadvantages.html (Retrieved 9th February, 2017)

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closed-ended_question (Retrieved 9th February, 2017)

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