Pertemuan Kedua:

Aspek Keuangan Global

Konsep Dasar

Kiki Verico, Ph.D.

 Topik
1. Network is Natural
2. Konsep Dasar
3. Dilemma Globalisasi & Hadirnya Regionalisasi
4. Kreatifitas & ICT (Knowledge Based Economy)
1. Network is Natural
 https://scontent.cdninstagram.com/hphotos-xfa1/t51.2885-
15/s306x306/e15/10986254_620265724773402_1398315305_n.jpg
 Globalization is needed
1. “Trade can make everybody better off ” (do not produce
something that cheaper if you buy, A. Smith, 1776)
2. Autarky is nearly impossible & import substitution is misleading
3. Specialization is nature as we are all relative
4. Absolute, Comparative, Abundance, Specialization,
Networks, Competitive
5. Openness starts from trade, investment thus finance: Money
follow Goods

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2012/12/24/can-asean-achieve-economic-community.html
http://goliveindonesia.com/2013/05/02/asean-economic-integration-challenges-and-strategies/
http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/blogs/indonesiaproject/?p=2950
 Perbandingan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (%):
D.Dollar & A.Art,WB Research Paper, March 2001,
p.38

Category 1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s

Globalized 1.4 2.9 3.5 5.0 6.0

Non 2.4 3.3 0.8 1.4 1.5

Globalized

Sumber:Author’s calculation
Source: Fung Global Institute
http://slideplayer.com/slide/6235465/
Source: Unknown
 Indonesia & Global Value
Chains

Source: Tim GVCs LPEM based on OECD Data

Source: CSIS
 2016
Num ber of Project Million USD
Agriculture Food Crops 800 1,589
& Mining Farm s 150 49
Forestry 108 78
Fishery 124 43
Mining 1,130 2,742
TOTAL 2,312 4,502
Manufacture Food Industry 1,947 2,115
Textile 886 321
Footw ear 279 144
Wood 240 268
Paper 274 2,787
Chem ical 1,096 2,889
Rubber 710 737
Non Metal 397 1,076
Metal 2,185 3,897
Medical Instrum ent 22 9
Transportation 928 2,370
Others 599 75
TOTAL 9,563 16,688
Service Utilities 748 2,140
Construction 437 187
Trade 5,540 670
Hotel & Restaurant 2,026 888
Transportation & Com m unication 620 750
Property 1,151 2,322
Others 2,924 818
TOTAL 13,446 7,775
Total 25,321 28,964

Source: BKPM
 50
45
45.02 Note: Culinary,
40 Investment
Income,
35 Remittance,
30 31.18 Export by “one
smart strategy”
(%)

25
20
15
15.92
10
5 2.09 3.32 2.46
0

Source: Baseline Survey of Creative Economy Roadmap on 6 Provinces 6 Sub-Sector for BEK RI, LPEM
FEB UI 2016
Source: ASEAN Dashboard, 2017
 Risk of Not Being Liberalized

Source: http://www.asiantradecentre.org/talkingtrade/2016/5/30/transforming-supply-chains-ketchup-in-the-tpp
Benefit: Market Enlargement (Internal & External)

Source: http://www.asiantradecentre.org/talkingtrade/2016/5/30/transforming-supply-chains-ketchup-in-the-tpp
Cost of Liberalisation
2. Konsep Dasar
 Time Horizon:
Ronald McKinnon (1993)
1. International Gold Standard: 1879-1913
2. The Spirit of Bretton Woods
Agreement:1945
3. The Fixed ER Dollar Standard:1950-
1970
4. The Floating ER Dollar Standard:1973-
1984
The Spirit of EMS:1972-2000
5. The Plaza Louvre Intervention
Accords:1985-1999
 ERM & EMCF (1973)
• ERM: Snake in the tunnel +/- 4.5%; Italy, Spain and
Portugal +/- 6%

• EMCF: Swap arrangement of international reserve

of interchangeable 20% of Reserve of Gold and
currency from one to other member states (MS)

• Implementation commitment to single currency

(1990-2000): SGP, Political Union

“Currency Union like EMU take cost of losing monetary

authority, fiscal freedom”
 Bubbling in
Global Finance Trade

• History of international currency or vehicle

currency (off shore trading)
• Motif kepemilikan uang: Transaction &
Precaution ke Speculation
• New York; London; Tokyo = US$ 303
billion;192 billion ;128 billion daily
• Ratio Foreign Exchange market to world
trade : 2/1 (20 billion US$/10 billion US$
daily in 1973); 10/1 (1980); 50/1 (1992);
70/1 (1995); 90/1 (2005)
 UU BI 03/04
• Pasal 7 ayat 1: Tujuan BI adalah mencapai dan
memelihara kestabilan rupiah
• Pasal 10 ayat 1 poin a: menetapkan sasaran moneter
dengan memperhatikan..laju inflasi
 Inflation, ER & Interest Rate
• Law of One Price = Hubungan Inflasi & ER
• Fischer’s Effect = Inflasi & Suku Bunga
• External Factor = Suku Bunga & ER
 FE Market
Rp/$
S0$
S1$

Undervalued (-), capital inflow,

Appreciation Domestic
Undervalued Currency
Overvalued (+), capital outflow,
Overvalued Depreciation Domestic
Currency

D1$
D0$
QM

developed countries currency is overvalued and developing

countries is undervalued against the logic of FE agreement hint:
Current Account Balance
Crisis is normal
1. Japan’s Restriction on inflows & VER (1983)
2. Bolivia, Poland (1980’s)
3. Rusia’s collapsed (1989)
4. Argentina Financial Crisis: tequila’s effect (1991)
5. EU Financial Attack (1992-1994)
Italy (excessive subsidy); France (Mirtrand’subsidy) ;
Spain (outflow<1980’s); Germany (full liberal)
6. Southeast Asia Financial Crisis: domino’s effect (1998),
Russia’s second attack (1999)
7. Yuan Remimbi Pressure (2004)
8. GFC 2008
9. EU & Greece
10. Arab Springs
11. Brexit 2016 & Trump’s Effect 2017
ASEAN+3 = CMIM + AREM
 Currency Union around the World
• 1999 EU currency
• 2010 Persian Gulf Currency (Saudi Arabia, UAE,Bahrain,Oman,Qatar &
Kuwait)
• Dollarization (Bahamas, Bermuda, Panama,Peurto Rico,Guatemala,Mexico
& Peru): Lost monetary authority in printing domestic currency

Robert Baro (138 countries from 1957-1997)

• US$: Canada, Mexico, Central America, South America, Hong Kong,
Philippines & Singapore
• Euro: EU, most African Countries
• Yen: probably Indonesia

“Currency Union like EMU take cost of losing monetary authority & fiscal deficit
and benefit of people on interstate money transaction”

Note: Classic study named

Optimum Currency Area (Mundell,1961)
Konsep Dasar Mikro dalam AKG

Beauty Contest ?
Herd Behaviour ?
Panic Buying?
Split the Bill Problem ?
Systemic Risk ?
Too Big To Fall ?
Asymmetric information ?
Adverse Selection ?
Moral Hazard ?
 GDP Nominal Growth Rate: EU
(Extensive Growth) 1820-2000

REGION 1820-1870 1870-1913 1913-1950 1950-1973 1973-2000 1820-2000

Western 1.7 2.1 1.1 4.5 2.1 2.1
Europe
Peripheral 0.9 1.5 1.2 6.0 3.4 2.1
Europe
Eastern 1.6 2.3 1.7 4.7 -0.2 2.2
Europe
World 0.9 2.1 1.8 4.8 3.0 2.2

Pertumbuhan
ekonomi tertinggi yg
pernah dicapai dunia
Economic Cooperation
Structure
 Prisoner’s Dilemma on Trade retaliation

Protection Dilemma Developing Country

Retaliation (Manufacture)

Protection No Protection

Protection 20/10 60/5

Developed
Country
(Agriculture)
No Protection 10/30 40/20

31
 Empirical Evidence
Intra regional trade:
WTO, International Trade Statistics table III.3
% of Export North America Latin America Western Africa Middle East Asia
sum by row Europe

North America 39.5 16.5 19 1.3 2.1 20.9

Latin America 60.8 17 12.1 1.2 1.2 6.3

Western Europe 10.3 2.3 67.5 2.5 2.6 7.8

Africa 17.7 3.5 51.8 7.8 2.1 14.9

Middle East 16.5 1.3 16.5 3.8 7.6 47.3

Asia 25.1 2.7 16.8 1.6 3 48.2

 Kerjasama Ekonomi Internasional
• Keikutsertaan negara berkembang dalam suatu
PTA harus sesuai dengan kepentingan negara
tersebut dengan menjaga fleksibilitas kebijakan.

• Perundingan kerjasama perdagangan

internasional antara negara berkembang dan
negara maju sebaiknya dilakukan pada level
multilateral agar bisa mendapatkan potensi
manfaat yang optimal.

• Production Networks, Guang Xi/ECBN, SEZs

33
 “Untuk meningkatkan kualitas kebijakan dan perencanaan Bekraf di masa depan butuh dukungan
data dan informasi statistik yg akurat, lengkap, terkini, dan konsisten,”…. MoU ini juga merupakan
salah satu bentuk upaya dari Bekraf untuk mendukung pencapaian target pembangunan ekonomi
kreatif 2015-2019, yang mencakup kontribusi PDB sebesar 12 persen, serapan tenaga kerja 13 juta
orang, dan kontribusi ekspor sebesar 10 persen. “Ekonomi kreatif akan menjadikan Indonesia
sebagai pemain utama,” (Kepala BEKRAF) (19 Januari 2016,
https://www.bps.go.id/KegiatanLain/view/id/129)

Culinary Film Music Game & App Craft Fashion

Song
Tourism Tradable

Domestic
Festival Instrument
Circulation
Terima Kasih

MPKP FEUI