Modeling spatiotemporal urban spillover effect of

transportation infrastructure development

(preliminary analysis)
Satoshi Miyazawa
2018-02-15
The views expressed in this presentation are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), the Asian Development
Bank (ADB), its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences
of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.
 Concept

Spatial extension of
Spillover effect

Land price
Land cover / use
Night time light
Property tax revenue
Spillover effect spatial
extent estimation

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 Land use
Land utilization segmented
mesh (1 km)
– 1976,1987,1991,199
7,2006,2009,2014
– Area values (0 to
1000000) of each
class in each cell
– http://nlftp.mlit.go.jp/k
sj/gml/datalist/KsjTmpl
t-L03-a.html

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 Building area density

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 Building area density 1987

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 Building area density 1997

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 Building area density 2006

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 Building area density 2009

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 Building area density 2014

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 Land price
• Proxy for property tax revenue

• Data
– Publication of Land Price Data
– http://nlftp.mlit.go.jp/ksj/gml/datalist/Ksj
Tmplt-L01-v2_3.html
• Sample point data

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 Public Land Price 2017

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 Spatial interpolation

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 Questions
• Where and how does the spillover effect happen?
– Modeling the spatial extent
• Land use (cover) change -> tax revenue (land price)

• Where are the most impacted areas?

– Detecting clusters
– Aggregation with buffers
http://pro.arcgis.com/en/pro-app/tool-reference/analysis/buffer.htm
• How to scale the model?
– Prototyping using Kyusyu Shinkansen
– Scaling using global geospatial observation data

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 Appendix

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 Related work

Spatial land price modeling

• Kato, D. et al. (2014) ‘Study on Relativity of City Planning and Property Tax Revenue in Local City’, Journal of the City
Planning Institute of Japan, 49(3), pp. 837–842.
• Inoue, R. et al. (2009) ‘Visualization of Spatial Distribution and Temporal Transition of Land Price in Tokyo 23 Wards Based
on Spatio-Temporal Kriging Interpolation’, Theory and Applications of GIS, 17(1), pp. 13–24.

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 Related work

Infrastructure development -> Spatial spillovers on tax revenue and land price
• Kobayashi, H. and Asami, Y. (2015) ‘An empirical analysis of the chronological and spatial spillovers on land price by an urban redevelopment
in city center:A case study on Takamatsu Marugamemachi shopping street’, Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan, 50(2), pp. 239–245.
doi: 10.11361/journalcpij.50.239.
• Tsutsumi, M. and Seya, H. (2008) ‘Measuring the impact of large-scale transportation projects on land price using spatial statistical models’,
Papers in Regional Science, 87(3), pp. 385–401. doi: 10.1111/j.1435-5957.2008.00192.x.

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