Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Competence to develop:
Topics to develop:
The academic course consists of three (3) academic credits, whose field of training is the
discipline and has a professional nature- elective in the program of industrial engineering
that offer the UNAD; in addition, it is theoretical. After you understand and internalize the
knowledge of the three preliminary courses of operations research (linear programming
methods deterministic, probabilistic methods) and the support in the acquired knowledge
in statistics and probability and Statistical Inference, the student is able to start the course
of decision theory, where it seeks to understand the methods, operations and definitions
on the different techniques of application in the decisions that depend on the type and
quality of the information obtained.
Phase 6. Solve problems by applying the algorithms of Unit 3, taking into account the
following steps:
Stage 18. Individual activity: Individual review of the activity guide and bibliographical
references required and complementary for the development of the activity.
Group activities:
Stage 19. Discussion and analysis of the problems raised, revision of the algorithms to
be applied and development of the activities proposed in the Collaborative Learning
Environment.
Note: Collaborative activities must be developed individually to meet all the problems
solved, the team discusses, corrects, consolidates and presents the contributions of all
the participants in the activity. To divide among the members of the collaborative groups
the proposed problems is not a methodology of the course, as the qualification will be
done according to the contributions presented individually.
Stage 20. Development of practical activities, use of Excel Solver. Review of the guides
in the Practical Learning Environment
Stage 21. Individual e-portfolio solving in the evaluation and monitoring environment.
Stage 22. Consolidation of the final work and rise in the Evaluation and Monitoring
Environment.
Activities to develop
Stage 18. Individual activity: With the reading and analysis of the problem contained in
the integrated guide of activities which is in the Collaborative Learning Environment, the
scenarios are reviewed, preparing to discuss the solution of the problem.
Do not forget to gather the necessary information to learn new concepts, principles and
skills that will help you in the process. In the Collaborative Work forum and in the
discussion topic called Phase 4. Collaborative work 2, start the activity by calling
colleagues, identifying the roles and pointing out the one you will assume.
Stage 19. The team should use the knowledge they already have, the details of the
problems that are proposed and that will be discussed for its subsequent resolution. It
outlines the possible algorithms that will need to solve each of the decision problems
under risk environment. Generate a list of response methods group, then solve them
according to the following indications of the problem:
XYZ insurance company charges its customers according to their accident history. If you
have not had accidents the last two years will be charged for the new policy $ 1,580,000
(state 0); if you have had an accident in each of the last two years you will be charged $
2,150,000 (State 1); If you had accidents the first of the last two years you will be charged
$ 1,630,000 (state 2) and if you had an accident the second of the last two years will be
charged $ 1,550,000 (State 3). The historical behavior of each state is given by the
following cases of accident, taken in four different events.
In Colombia there are 5 main mobile operators such as Tigo, Comcel, Movistar, ETB and
Uff, which we will call states. The following chart summarizes the odds that each client
has to stay in their current operator or make a change of company.
The current percentages of each operator in the current market are for Tigo 0.25 for
Comcel 0.2, for Movistar 0.3, for ETB 0.1 and 0.15 for Uff (initial state).
In Colombia there are 6 main mobile operators such as Avantel, Tigo, Comcel, Movistar,
ETB and Uff, which we will call states. The following chart summarizes the odds that each
client has to stay in their current operator or make a change of company.
The current percentages of each operator in the current market are for Avantel 0.1, Tigo
0.15 for Comcel 0.15, for Movistar 0.35, for ETB 0.1 and 0.15 for Uff (initial state).
Problem 4. Markov chains (Initial state multiplication):
Suppose that 4 types of soft drinks are obtained in the market: Colombian, Pepsi Cola,
Fanta and Coca Cola when a person has bought Colombian there is a probability that they
will continue to consume 40%, 20% of which will buy Pepsi Cola, 10% that Fanta buys
and 30% that Coca Cola consumes; when the buyer currently consumes Pepsi Cola there
is a probability that he will continue to buy 30%, 20% buy Colombiana, 20% that Fanta
consumes and 30% Coca Cola; if Fanta is currently consumed, the likelihood of it
continuing to be consumed is 20%, 40% buy Colombian, 20% consume Pepsi Cola and
20% go to Coca Cola. If you currently consume Coca Cola the probability that it will
continue to consume is 50%, 20% buy Colombian, 20% that consumes Pepsi Cola and
10% that is passed to Fanta.
At present, each Colombian brand, Pepsi Cola, Fanta and Coca Cola have the following
percentages in market share respectively (30%, 25%, 15% and 30%) during week 3.
Suppose you get 6 types of Jeans brands in the Colombian market: Brand 1, Brand 2,
Brand 3, Brand 4, Brand 5 and Brand 6. The following table shows the odds that you
continue to use the same brand or change it.
At present, brand, have the following percentages in market share respectively (19%,
18%, 17%, 15%, 19% y 12%) during week 4.
PROPOSED STRATEGY
According to Table 1 by applying the Markovian processes, ie finding the transition matrix
and solving the respective equations of p * q, where p is the transition matrix and q the
vector [W X Y Z]. Answer:
a. What is the transition matrix resulting from proportionality according to the accident
history?
According to Tables 2 and 3 by applying the Markovian criteria, solve the multiplication of
the initial state vector (market share) by the probability matrix (transition matrix).
Answer:
c. Find the probability that each user stays with the mobile company for the next
period.
According to the data of problem 4 and 5 by applying the Markovian criteria, solve the
multiplication of the initial state vector (market share) by the probability matrix (transition
matrix). Answer:
Step 20. Enter the Practical Environment, in this space videos are presented for the use
of the WinQSB or the Excel Solver Plug-in and practical tutorials to develop the proposed
activities, remember to attach screenshots to your final collaborative work, the income
and results table for the problems raised. In this same space you can carefully review the
Guide for the use of educational resources.
Stage 21. Individually fill out the e-portfolio journal, so that it can verify the recording of
its difficulties and strengths with the activity of the practical environment, recognizing the
contribution for its professional life the use of the algorithms of the course, the which is
in the Evaluation and follow-up environment, to record what is identified in the e-portfolio
in the conclusions of the collaborative work that is found in the Collaborative Learning
environment and thus consolidate the definitive group work.
Step 22. The leader of the group should upload a single PDF file in the Evaluation and
Monitoring Environment, in the designated space called Phase 6. Collaborative Work 3.
Step 23. Individually fill in the Self-Assessment and Co-evaluation survey, which is in the
Evaluation and monitoring environment, this allows identifying the individual and group
strategies used for the development of activities.
Environment
Collaborative learning environment - Evaluation and monitoring
for the
environment
development
Individual:
None in this activity.
Collaborative:
Roles to perform by The students at the beginning of the course, in the space
the student in the destined to do so, will be recognized as participants of a
collaborative group collaborative group, they will be able to present their
strengths to the service of the group and they will define the
channels of communication (contact data, institutional and
personal email address, skype , social networking links.) of
which will be available to interact effectively and proactively.
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