POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 27TH APRIL 2018, 6 AM CST

Manitoba
Voter Intention Numbers
27th April 2018
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of
a survey conducted between April 16th to 18th,
2018 among a sample of 870 adults, 18 years
of age or older, living in Manitoba. The survey
was conducted using automated telephone
interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were
interviews on both landlines and cellular
phones.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and
random digit dialing. The part of the survey
that dialed from the directory was conducted
as a stratified dial of the following regions;
Winnipeg and the rest of Manitoba. In the
case of random digit dials, respondents were
asked the additional question of what region
of the province they resided in.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party.
The margin of error for the first survey is +/-
3.32% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all
three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
PALLISTER PCs WIDEN LEAD OVER NDP

27 APRIL 2018 (OTTAWA, ON) – Premier Brian Pallister and the Progressive
Conservatives have significantly widened their lead over the opposition NDP.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a

conglomeration of ten provincial polls. The poll surveyed 870 Manitobans
between April 16th and April 18th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.32 %
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“This is good news for Premier Pallister,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO
of Mainstreet Research. “The margin between the PCs and NDP stood at three
points in January, but the gap now stands at more than fifteen points.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the PC have 45.6% (+6% since January),
while the NDP are at 30.2% (-6.5%). The Liberals led by Dougald Lamond
currently enjoy 13% support (-0.3%), while the Greens led by James Bedomme
are at 7.8% (-2.6%).

“The PCs lead in every demographic – except among Manitobans aged 50 to

64 - and in all regions in the province,” continued Maggi. “This certainly bodes
well for Premier Pallister as his government shows no signs of mid-term blues
as his government approaches the midpoint of its mandate.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
 All Voters
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?

Progressive Conservatives 39.4%

Undecided 14.5%

Another Party 3%

Greens 6.6%

All Voters

Liberals 10.3%

Decided and Leaning Voters

NDP 26.2%

Another Party 3.3% Progressive Conservatives 45.6%

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens
Greens 7.8%

Another Party Undecided

Liberals 13%

Decided and Leaning Voters

NDP 30.2%

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens

Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Winnipeg Rest of MB
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister 39.4% 46.5% 32.5% 46.6% 32.3% 32.2% 47.2% 34% 48.2%
NDP led by Wab Kinew 26.2% 22.8% 29.4% 20.4% 19.9% 38.4% 26.8% 29.2% 21.1%
Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 10.3% 7.9% 12.6% 5.1% 12% 13.5% 11.8% 12.9% 6.1%
Greens led by James Bedomme 6.6% 6.1% 7.2% 8.9% 6.7% 5.5% 4.5% 7% 6.1%
Another Party 3% 5.7% 0.4% 4.3% 5.3% 0.8% 1.2% 1.7% 5.2%
Undecided 14.5% 11.1% 17.8% 14.6% 23.8% 9.7% 8.6% 15.2% 13.3%
Unweighted Frequency 870 442 428 100 130 245 395 542 328
Weighted Frequency 870 428 442 257 220 225 167 541 329

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Winnipeg Rest of MB
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister 41.8% 48.2% 35.6% 50.7% 35.1% 33.2% 48.4% 36% 51.4%
NDP led by Wab Kinew 27.4% 23.2% 31.5% 20.4% 23.4% 38.9% 28.1% 30.7% 22%
Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 11.7% 9.6% 13.8% 8.2% 12.7% 14.3% 12.5% 14.3% 7.5%
Greens led by James Bedomme 7.1% 6.1% 8% 10.2% 6.7% 5.5% 4.8% 7.7% 6.1%
Another Party 3% 5.7% 0.4% 4.3% 5.3% 0.8% 1.2% 1.7% 5.2%
Undecided 9% 7.2% 10.6% 6.2% 16.9% 7.3% 4.9% 9.7% 7.7%
Unweighted Frequency 870 442 428 100 130 245 395 542 328
Weighted Frequency 870 428 442 257 220 225 167 541 329

(decided and leaning voters)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Winnipeg Rest of MB
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister 45.6% 51.6% 39.7% 53.9% 42.1% 35.5% 50.8% 39.6% 55.4%
NDP led by Wab Kinew 30.2% 25.1% 35.2% 21.8% 28.2% 42.3% 29.7% 34.1% 23.9%
Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 13% 10.3% 15.7% 8.7% 15.5% 15.5% 13.2% 16% 8.3%
Greens led by James Bedomme 7.8% 6.6% 9% 11.1% 8.1% 5.9% 5% 8.5% 6.7%
Another Party 3.3% 6.3% 0.5% 4.4% 6.2% 0.9% 1.2% 1.9% 5.7%
Unweighted Frequency 807 415 392 94 109 228 376 501 306
Weighted Frequency 807 397 410 239 204 209 155 502 305
Full Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held What is your gender?
today, which party would you vote Male
for? Female
Progressive Conservative Party of
Manitoba led by Brian Pallister What is your age group?
New Democratic Party of Manitoba led 18 to 34 years of age
by Wab Kinew 35 to 49 years of age
Manitoba Liberal Party led by Dougald 50 to 64 years of age
Lamont 65 years of age or older
Green Party of Manitoba led by James
Bedomme
Another Party
Undecided

And which party are you leaning

towards? (only asked of respondents
who were undecided in previous
question)
Progressive Conservative Party of
Manitoba led by Brian Pallister
New Democratic Party of Manitoba led
by Wab Kinew
Manitoba Liberal Party led by Dougald
Lamont
Green Party of Manitoba led by James
Bedomme
Another Party
Undecided
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between April 16th,
2018 and April 18th, 2018, among a sample of 870 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in
Manitoba. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of Manitoba.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed
from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of two regions in Manitoba: Winnipeg
and the rest of Manitoba. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the
additional question of what region of the province they resided in. In both cases, respondents
were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.47% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.66%, Females: +/-
4.73%, 18-34 age group: +/- 9.8%, 35-49 age group: +/- 8.59%, 50-64 age group: +/- 6.26%,
65+ age group: +/- 4.93%, Winnipeg: +/- 4.21%, Rest of Manitoba: +/- 5.41%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.