Professional Documents
Culture Documents
August 1993
OTA-ISC-559
NTIS order #PB94-107612
GPO stock #052-003-01335-5
Recommended Citation:
U.S. Congress, Office of “kchnology Assessment, Proliferation of Weapons of Mass
Destruction: Assessing the Rish, OTA-ISC-559 (Washington, DC: U.S. Government
Printing Office, August 1993).
Foreword
T
hroughout history, human beings have been able to annihilate each other without
weapons of mass destruction. However, the development of such weapons has
greatly reduced the time and effort needed to kill, giving small nations and even
subnational groups the ability to destroy lives on a scale that few nations could
otherwise manage. Such mass killing does not require state-of-the-art technology; the basic
technologies underlying chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons date back to World
Wars I and II. Now, modern technologies—and the ever-increasing flow of goods,
information, and people across national borders-can place these deadly capabilities in
many more hands.
Occasionally, the United States may directly influence another state’s decision to
pursue weapons of mass destruction. More often, nonproliferation efforts of the United
States-together with other countries and international institutions such as the United
Nations and the International Atomic Energy Agency—must operate indirectly. By
establishing a system of obstacles, disincentives, rewards, and international norms or rules
of behavior, nonproliferation measures are intended to lessen the desire for and increase the
costs of acquiring these weapons. The challenge is to accomplish this objective in a world
where states still threaten one another, and where military power is still viewed as the
ultimate guarantor of national survival. Even so, several recent international trends offer us
hope that proliferation might be slowed or even reversed.
OTA has been asked by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the Senate
Committee on Governmental Affairs, with the endorsement of the House Committee on
Foreign Affairs, the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, and the Senate
Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, to assist Congress in its efforts to
strengthen and broaden U.S. policies to control the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction. This report describes what nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons can do,
analyzes the consequences of their spread for the United States and the world, and
summarizes technical aspects of monitoring and controlling their production. (A separate
background paper analyzes the technologies underlying nuclear, chemical, and biological
weapons and delivery systems in greater depth.) This report also explains the array of policy
tools that can be used to combat proliferation, identifying tradeoffs and choices that
confront policymakers. A forthcoming report will analyze specific sets of nonproliferation
policy options in detail.
OTA gratefully acknowledges the contributions of many individuals, firms, and
government agencies who assisted its research and writing for this report.
NOTE: OTA appciates and is grateful for the valuable assistance and thoughtful critiques provided by the advisory panel
members. The panel does not, however, necessarily approve, disapprove, or endorse this report. OTA assumes full responsibility
for the report ~d the accuracy of its contents. - --
Iv
—
Preject Staff
Peter Blair Gerald L. Epstein ADMINISTRATIVE STAFF
Assistant Director, OTA Project Director
Energy, Materials, and International Jacqueline Robinson Boykin
Security Division Thomas H. Karas Office Administrator
v
Additional Reviewers
Steve Fetter Joseph Pilat John Steinbruner
University of Maryland Center for National Security Director, Foreign Policy Studies
College Park, MD Studies Program
Los Alamos National Laboratory The Brookings Institution
Thomas W. Graham Los Alamos, NM Washington, DC
International Security program,
Rockefeller Foundation Lawrence Sequist Victor A. Utgoff
New York, NY Office of the Secretary of Defense Deputy Director-Strategy, Forces,
Washington, DC and Resources Division
Institute for Defense Analyses
Alexandria, VA
NOTE: OTA appreciates and is grateful for the valuable assistance and thoughtful critiques provided by the reviewers. l%e panel
does not, however, necessarily approve, disapprove, or endorse this report. OTA assumes full responsibility for the report and
the accuracy of its contents.
vi 1
c ontents
3 Policy Background 83
Imposing Obstacles to Proliferation 84
Disincentives to Proliferants 93
Rewards for Abstention 98
When Nonproliferation Fails 109
Special and Urgent: Limiting Proliferation
From the Former Soviet Union 111
Appendix 3-A-Costs and Benefits of Onsite
Inspections for Nonproliferation Regimes 113
Index 117
vii
Introduction
and
Summary 1
* Nuclear weapons detonated at high attitude can also generate powerful radio waves (catled ‘electromagnetic pulse’ that canwreakhavoc
with electronic equipmen~ but do not pose a direct human health risk.
2
In principle, nations or groups could develop rudiofogicaf weapons whose effects are similar to those of fallout from a nuclear wezpon
(albeit over a far smaller area) without any of the blast effects or extreme temperatures that make nuclear weapons so devastating. Radiological
weapons disseminate highly radioactive material over an area using mechanical means or conventional explosives. They resemble chemical
weapons much more than nuclear weapons in their effects, since they contaminate territory and poison living organisms but do not destroy
physical structures. Conventional attacks on nuclear power plants could be tantamount to radiological warfare, as the accident at Chernobyl
suggests. ‘Ihe amount of fallout from such an attack could be massive, far greater than that from a “traditional’ radiological weapon that
disperses radioactive material directly.
Although there are as yet no documented cases of anyone trying to acquire radiologicalwmpons, the Geneva-based Conference on
Disarmarn ent has an ad hoc committee charged with concluding a convention on them. Sweden has proposed that attacks on nuclear facilities
be included, while the United States, France, and Germany favor dealing only with traditional radiological weapons.
4 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
their cost when armed with conventional war- U.S. territory, might become targets for weapons
heads, although they can have considerable polit- of mass destruction.
ical significance.) Combat aircraft also pose a The breakup of the Soviet Union presents
potent threat for delivery of mass-destruction immediate threats to the global nonprolifera-
weapons. They are much more widely available tion regimes. One possibility is that Ukraine,
than missiles, and efforts to control their spread Kazakhstan, or Belarus will renege on their
are greatly complicated by the multiple roles that commitments to return the nuclear weapons
aircraft play. Cruise missiles and other unmanned stationed within their borders to Russia and, in the
aerial vehicles could also be used as delivery case of Ukraine and Kazakhstan, to join the
methods, although such vehicles with the range Non-Proliferation Treaty as non-nuclear-weapon
and payload of typical combat aircraft or ballistic states. (Belarus has already ratified the WT.)
missiles are not yet widely available. Such actions would seriously undermine the
nonproliferation regime. Another danger is the
MAJOR FINDINGS leakage of nuclear weapon materials or actual
weapons to potential proliferants elsewhere in the
world if the nuclear custodial system in Russia
I The Proliferation Threat itself were to break down. Yet another concern is
Those states most actively working to de- the export from former Soviet republics of
velop weapons of mass destruction, although equipment, technology or expertise relevant to
limited in number, are for the most part producing weapons of mass destruction.
located in unstable regions of the world—the
Middle East, South Asia, and the Korean
peninsula. For at least the next decade, few if any I Prerequisites to Effective
of these states will be able to deliver such Nonproliferation Policy
weapons more than a thousand kilometers or so in If nonproliferation policy is to succeed, it
a reliable and timely manner. Therefore, the must receive substantial international cooper-
greatest threat posed by these states is to their ation. Cooperation is necessary because no nation
neighbors and to regional stability. Despite their or small group of nations by themselves can
current limitations in long-range military delivery prevent proliferation or contain its consequences.
systems, however, proliferant states-at least in Cooperation is possible because many countries
principle--can threaten any country on earth have come to recognize that the proliferation of
using unconventional means (e.g., covert or nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons poses
disguised delivery systems such as a ship or a genuine threat to all nations. However, since
truck). states will not always agree on nonproliferation
Proliferation poses dangers to all nations. It measures, maintaining and acting on an effective
poses particular problems for the United consensus will require each participating country
States. As a global power, the United States will to give up some freedom to act independently.
almost certainly retain allies and vital interests Some analysts argue that containing prolifera-
overseas that might be threatened by states tion in the long run will require a far deeper level
possessing weapons of mass destruction. Should of international cooperation than has been achieved
the United States need to defend its interests with to date, one that builds international institutions
military force--whether acting unilaterally or for a much more cooperative global security
under multilateral auspices such as those of the regime. Others argue that the international politi-
United Nations--U.S. armed forces, and possibly cal system is inevitably anarchic and that as a
Chapter 1–Introduction and Summary 5
result, the degree of cooperation needed to Strategies for inhibiting proliferation have
contain proliferation cannot be achieved. four broad elements, all of which contribute to
Whether or not either of these views proves existing nonproliferation regimes and form the
correct, the end of the Cold War has opened up basis for future ones. For the most part, these
new opportunities for cooperative nonprolifera- elements are mutually supportive, although as
tion policies. One promising sign is the revitaliza- described later in this chapter, tensions between
tion of the United Nations Security Council. them can arise. By emphasizing these elements in
Progress has also been made with the signing of different proportion, nonproliferation policies can
the Chemical Weapons Convention and the strength- be tailored to particular situations. These ele-
ening of various multilateral groups that have ments include:
formed for the purpose of controlling the spread ● obstacles to impede those working to ac-
of proliferation-sensitive technology: the Nuclear quire weapons of mass destruction, ranging
Suppliers Group, to control exports of nuclear from protection of weapon-related informa-
technology; the Australia Group, to control ma-
tion, to export controls, possibly all the way
terials useful for chemical and biological weap-
to preemptive military attack against produc-
ons; and the Missile Technology Control Regime,
tion or storage facilities;
to restrict traffic in missile systems and missile ● punitive measures to deter or punish prolif-
technology.
erants, including economic sanctions or
If U.S. nonproliferation policy is to succeed,
diplomatic isolation imposed on countries
the United States must give it high priority.
developing these weapons, and on states,
With its leadership role in the world community,
firms, or individuals who assist in such
the United States has the opportunity and the
developments;
ability to mobilize international nonproliferation
● rewards to increase the attractiveness of
efforts. Free of previously overriding Cold War
voluntarily forgoing these weapons, such as
security concerns, the United States can now
attach greater priority to nonproliferation. Doing development assistance (financial or techni-
so, however, is not without costs. Nonprolifera- cal) that is tied to nonproliferation; and
● global or regional security improvements
tion may conflict with economic goals, as export
promotion is balanced against export controls. to reduce the perceived needs for the weap-
Promoting openness, transparency, and verifica- ons.
tion of nonproliferation commitments, on the one The increasing international flow of techni-
hand, conflicts with maintaining the secrecy of cal knowledge, high-technology goods, and
national-security or proprietary information, on trained specialists is eroding the ability of the
the other. Nonproliferation will also likely con- United States and its allies to withhold technol-
flict with other foreign policy objectives such as ogies relevant to producing weapons of mass
maintaining relations with individual states. For destruction from states of proliferation con-
example, would the United States be willing to cern. Nevertheless, although technical capability
sacrifice its relationship with Israel-and possi- is necessary to develop weapons of mass destruc-
bly risk Israeli national survival-to pressure that tion, it is not sufficient, and it is certainly not
state to give up a nuclear arsenal it believes causal. A host of nontechnical factors such as the
essential to its security? How prominently should diplomatic, political, organizational, and eco-
nonproliferation figure in U.S. relations with nomic costs and benefits bear on a state’s decision
China, a regional power whose cooperation the to pursue such weapons.
United States seeks in other diplomatic or eco- In the long run, the most effective nonprolif-
nomic arenas? eration measure is to convince states that it is
6 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
in their own best interest to forgo weapons of can be fabricated indigenously by prolif-
mass destruction. Reducing the incentives for erants using equipment (e.g., machine tools)
seeking such weapons and raising the costs of that also has civilian applications.
doing so are both important. External obstacles ● Most of the equipment needed to produce
and disincentives can play an important role in chemical weapons has civilian applica-
raising the costs of proliferation to a state tions. Moreover, most of the same chemi-
considering it, possibly tipping the balance to- cals, or precursors, used to make chemical-
wards nonproliferation. Such coercive measures warfare (CW) agents are also used in com-
can also buy time for other diplomatic or political mercial products. Some agents (e.g., sulfur
measures to forestall the development of weapons mustard and the nerve agent tabun) could be
of mass destruction. However, they may not produced with widely available chemical-
always be sufficient to stop states determined to industry equipment. The most potent nerve
acquire weapons of mass destruction. agents (e.g., sarin, soman, VX) involve a
process step--the alkylation of phosphorous—
H Technical Aspects of Nonproliferation that is less common, but that nevertheless is
Policy used in a handful of commercial products
Trying to control proliferation through control- such as some pesticides and fire retardants.
ling exports or placing other obstacles in the way . Virtually all the equipment underlying
of potential proliferants requires technical analy- production of biological and toxin agents
sis of the production pathways for making these has civil applications and has become
weapons. Controls will not work if the target state widely available as fermentation technol-
can readily make controlled items indigenously, ogy, and the pharmaceutical and biotech-
find uncontrolled sources of supply, or develop nology industries more generally, have
alternatives. Technical analysis also underpins spread worldwide. Since militarily signifi-
measures to monitor the production of weapons of cant quantities of biological agents could be
mass destruction, measures that are needed to produced in a short time in small facilities,
evaluate potential threats as well as to formulate they could be used offensively without the
verification regimes by which states can assure need for long-term stockpiles. Crude dis-
each other that they are not pursuing such semination of biological agents in an aerosol
weapons. cloud can be performed with commercially
available equipment, such as an agricultural
ISSUES FOR CONTROLLING PROLIFERATION sprayer mounted on a truck, ship, or airplane.
. Obtaining fissionable nuclear weapon ma- However, developing reliable, efficient pro-
terial (enriched uranium or plutonium) jectile or missile warheads for precision
today remains the greatest single obstacle delivery of organisms over a target requires
most countries would face in the pursuit surmounting major technical hurdles. Even
of nuclear weapons. For this reason, theft or so, the United States overcame these hurdles
black market purchase of nuclear material or by the 1960s.
warheads from the former Soviet arsenal—
or collaboration between potential prolifer- MONITORING PROLIFERATION AND VERIFYING
ants whereby one provides nuclear materials COMPLIANCE WITH NON PROLIFERATION
to another-would be extremely troubling. AGREEMENTS
Although nuclear material production, weapon ● All facilities for producing weapon-grade
fabrication, and testing require specialized nuclear material have unique features
equipment, in many cases this equipment amenable to detection by intrusive onsite
Chapter 1–Introduction and Summary 7
inspection. Many have distinctive signa- work can be conducted under the guise of
tures that are detectable remotely, although defensive preparations. Identifying where
facilities needed for some approaches to to look for evidence of biological agent
material production might not be readily production is even harder than for chemical
detectable. agents. Several suggestive signatures of
● Production of chemical-warfare agents biological weapon production do exist, and,
can be detected through analysis of sam- if integrated effectively with each other and
ples taken during an onsite inspection. with other sources of intelligence, they
However, considerable access to production might make it possible to infer a weapon
facilities is required to collect appropriate production capability. However, the evi-
samples. Moreover, highly sensitive analyti- dence supporting such an inference may not
cal chemistry techniques that are decisive be sufficient to justify claims of treaty
under laboratory conditions might be less so violation before the international commu-
under some circumstances in the field, par- nity, either because it cannot be publicly
ticularly if the proliferant has been produc- released or because public allegations of
ing related legitimate chemicals (e.g., pesti- treaty violation typically require a substan-
cides) in the same facility and is willing to tially higher burden of proof than intelli-
expend time, effort, and resources to mask, gence assessments. Sensitive techniques exist
obscure, or otherwise explain away chemical to identify biological or toxin agents if
agent production activities. Such efforts, access to a suspect site is made available.
while not likely to eliminate grounds for However, such techniques alone do not
suspicion, could create ambiguities or other- ensure that an effective onsite inspection
wise complicate detection of chemical agent regime can be established to detect produc-
production during an inspection. tion of biological or toxin weapons.
3
One kiloton is the explosive blast generated by 1,000 tons of high explosive.
8 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
physical infrastructure of a large city and contam- clothing, shelters, and decontamination proce-
inate a much larger area with radioactive fallout. dures. Although these weapons can contaminate
Given this destructive power, nuclear weapons territory, they do not destroy infrastructure. If
have been developed for strategic use against a protective measures are taken in time-which
nation’s military infrastructure, its economic requires adequate warning-they can dramati-
base, and even its population. In addition, the cally reduce casualties, and hence the military and
nuclear powers have developed many tactical political implications, of a chemical or biological
nuclear weapons for a variety of battlefield attack. Nevertheless, such weapons can still have
missions. These weapons are particularly threat- military value against protected troops, since
ening to concentrations of military force such as forcing troops to don protective gear impairs their
tightly clustered naval groups, port or depot ability to function on the battlefield and lowers
facilities, troop concentrations, or massed forces their military effectiveness. Means for penetrat-
of tanks and other armored vehicles. ing protective gear would have serious implica-
tions for the military utility of chemical or
Unlike nuclear weapons, chemical and bio-
biological weapons. Although such means have
logical agents-if detected-can be defended
been examined, they have operational shortcom-
against through use of gas masks, protective
ings; moreover, defensive equipment is being
improved to mitigate that threat.
Biological weapons are so potent that under
conditions favorable to the attacker, they can kill
as many people as comparably sized nuclear
weapons, potentially making them extremely
dangerous as a strategic or terrorist weapon
against dense population centers. However, their
characteristics make them particularly difficult to
use on the battlefield. Except for some toxins,
biological agents act more slowly than chemical
or nuclear weapons, taking days or weeks to
achieve full effect. In addition, their effects are
much harder to control or predict than those of
nuclear weapons, since 1) individuals differ
markedly in their sensitivity to biological agents;
2) the lethal areas created by such agents, which
depend on wind and other weather conditions, are
hard to predict (indeed, such agents may even be
blown back upon the attacker by an unexpected
shift in wind direction during a battlefield engage-
ment); and 3) biological agents must be kept alive
through the dissemination process and long
enough afterward to infect the target personnel,
but not so long as to impede future use of the area.
On a pound-for-pound basis, chemical weap-
Gas masks and protective clothing can shield against ons are much less lethal than either nuclear or
chemical and biological weapons, but they impair biological weapons, and correspondingly greater
military @activeness. amounts would have to be delivered to have
Chapter 1–Introduction and Summary 9
comparable results. Indeed, it may not even be pathogens) and building the munitions and deliv-
appropriate to consider them to be weapons of ery systems needed to make those materials
‘‘mass destruction. ’ Yet they can still induce militarily functional.
terror, particularly among troops or civilians Since international norms remain and are being
without protective gear. strengthened against proliferation of these weap-
In some battlefield scenarios, chemical weap- ons, proliferants may very likely try to acquire
ons might be no more effective than the same them secretly. Concealing potential indicators of
weight of conventional high-explosive muni- the necessary activities adds to the expense and
tions, even when used against unprotected people. difficulty of acquisition. With enough effort and
Like biological weapons, their effects depend on resources, the magnitude and scope-and possi-
variable factors such as weather and terrain, bly even the existence-of a covert weapon
limiting their predictability. Nevertheless, chemi- program might well be successfully concealed;
cal weapons do have tactical applications. Persis- the burden will be on the suspecting parties to
tent chemical agents cart create local “no-man’ s- detect relevant indicators and to interpret their
lands’ in which restrictions would be imposed on meaning accurately. The background paper ex-
military operations of either side. Attacks using ties various ‘‘signatures’ that might indicate
nonpersistent agents could disrupt enemy de- the presence of a clandestine weapon program.
fenses but still permit attacking troops to overrun
the territory soon afterwards. Some chemical
agents can be used as incapacitants, either in lieu 1 Probability of Use
of lethal force or in conjunction with it. Nuclear weapons have been detonated on
adversaries only twice-against Hiroshima and
~ Ease of Acquisition Nagasaki in World War II. Biological weapons,
Barring a shortcut, such as the direct acquisi- despite their apparent ease of manufacture and
tion of nuclear materials usable in weapons, the their devastating effects, have not played a
infrastructure required to produce nuclear weap-
ons is considerably more difficult and expensive
to develop than that for either biological or
chemical weapons. It is also the most amenable to
limitation through control of international tech-
nology transfers. Mass production of lethal chem-
ical agents requires a greater investment than that
of biological weapons, but is not nearly as
expensive or challenging as production of nuclear
materials.
Table 1-1, drawn from the technical analyses in
a separate OTA background paper, compares the
relative difficulties involved in trying to produce
nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons in
several categories.4 Note that the table differenti- Kurdish victims of an Iraqi chemical attack on
ates between producing materials (nuclear ma- the Iraqi town of Halabja during the Iran-Iraq
terials, chemical warfare agents, and biological war.
4
OTA background paper on tccbnologies underlying weapons of mass destruction in press.
10 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
Table l-l—Technical Hurdles for Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapon Programs
Nuclear Biological Chemical
Nuclear materials or lethal
agents production
Feed materials Uranium ore, oxide widely Potential biological warfare a- Many basic chemicals avail-
available; plutonium and gents are readily available lo- able for commercial purposes;
partly enriched uranium dis- cally or internationally from nat- only some nerve gas precur-
persed through nuclear power ural sources or commercial sup- sors available for purchase,
programs, mostly under inter- pliers. but ability to manufacture them
national safeguards. is spreading.
Scientific and technical Requires wide variety of ex- Sophisticated research and de- Organic chemists and chemi-
personnel pertise and skillful systems velopment unnecessary to pro- cal engineers widely available.
integration. duce commonly known agents.
Industrial microbiological per-
sonnel widely available.
Design and engineering Varies with process, but spe- Widely published; basic tech- Widely published.
knowledge cific designs for producing niques to produce known agents Some processes tricky (Iraq
either of the two bomb-grade not difficult. had difficulty with tabun cyana-
nuclear materials can be diffi- tion, succeeded at sarin alkyla-
cult to develop: tion; however, sarin quality was
. Separation of uranium poor).
isotopes to-high-
Iy enriched uranium;
. Reactor production and
chemical processing to
produce plutonium.
Equipment Varies with different processes, Widely available for commer- Most has legitimate industrial
but difficulties can include fab- cial uses. applications.
rication, power consumption, Special containment and waste- Alkylation process is somewhat
large size, and operational treatment equipment may be difficult and is unusual in civil-
complexity: more difficult to assemble, but ian applications.
● Electromagnetic sepa- are not essential to production. Special containment and waste
ration equipment can
treatment equipment may be
be constructed from avail-
more difficult to assemble, but
able, multiple-use parts;
are not essential to production.
● Equipment for other proc-
esses is more special-
ized and difficult to buy
or build.
prominent role in wartime. 5 Chemical weapons, in kind.6 Iraq also used chemical weapons against
on the other hand, were heavily used in World its own Kurdish population. Although the threat
War I and have been employed several times of Iraqi chemical weapons loomed large over
since then in regional conflicts. Most recently, coalition military forces and civilians in sur-
Iraq used chemical weapons during the 1980- rounding countries during Operation Desert Storm,
1988 war with Iran, resulting in some 50,000 they were not in fact used during that conflict.
Iranian casualties, with Iran belatedly retaliating Nevertheless, if the past is any guide, chemical
S ~ world war II, Japan used biological agents including bubonic plague on an experimermd bk in occupied ~ reportedly MU
some hundreda of Chinese civilians but also causing thousands of illnesses among its own troops (see ch. 2). Biological weapons were not used
in any other theater of the war.
6
‘R@mony of R. James Wocdsey, Director of Central Intelligence, before the Senate Committee on Govemrnental Affairs, Feb. 25, 1993.
Chapter 1-Introduction and Summary I 11
Production equipment Much (e.g., machine tools) Must be tightly contained to Relatively simple, closely re-
dual-use and widely avail- prevent spread of infection, but lated to standard munitions pro-
able. the necessary equipment is not duction equipment.
Some overlap with conven- hard to build.
tional munitions production
equipment.
SOURCE: Office of Technology Assessment, 1993.
weapons are considerably more likely to be used that the states now working hardest to develop
in the future than either nuclear or biological weapons of mass destruction (see following
weapons. section) are for the most part located in unstable
regions of the world, where bitter and unresolved
IMPLICATIONS OF PROLIFERATION rivalries have erupted into war in the recent past
Mass killing of human beings is not new to and hold the prospect of doing so again. Not only
warfare, or even to this century. Nevertheless, might future wars lead to the actual use of
weapons of mass destruction compress the time weapons of mass destruction, but the deployment
and the effort needed to kill. Wars lasting only a of such weapons in these regions could increase
few days could now devastate populations, cities, tensions still further.
or entire countries in ways that previously took Even if these weapons are not used, they cast
months or years. Particularly ominous is the fact shadows that can affect interstate relations and
12 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
international balances of power. A few analysts, however, the existence of the Soviet nuclear
pointing to the role that nuclear weapons seem to arsenal strongly tempered U.S. views of which
have played in preventing war between the United ‘‘vital national interests’ were worth risking
States and the Soviet Union, argue that their nuclear war to defend. If additional countries
spread will actually increase international stabil- acquire the means to threaten U.S. allies, U.S.
ity. Most, however, consider such a view to be forces overseas, or even U.S. territory with
dangerously misguided. The Cold War was not nuclear weapons, the United States will be forced
without serious crises and close calls, such as the to reevaluate the conditions under which it is
Cuban Missile Crisis. In the Middle East, South willing to risk nuclear attack. Even though it
Asia, and the Korean peninsula, hostile powers might retaliate with its own nuclear arsenal, U.S.
share common borders, contest core values retaliation may not compensate for U.S. or allied
and vital national interests, and lack both the
losses.
mutual learning experience and the technical
Plausible scenarios for the current set of
safeguards that have helped the superpowers
suspected proliferants to threaten U.S. territory
come to live with the mortal threat each poses
the other. with nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction
Proliferation, therefore, poses real dangers are difficult to devise. None possess missiles or
from the point of view of international security aircraft with sufficient range to reach the United
and human welfare. Moreover, in addition to its States, nor are potentially hostile powers likely to
global consequences, it poses particular problems develop such systems in the next 10 years (see
for the United States. As a global power, the next section). Nevertheless, a state that badly
United States will almost certainly retain allies wanted to wreak destruction on a U.S. city
and vital interests overseas that might be threat- could probably do so, whether it had advanced
ened by states possessing weapons of mass delivery systems or not—and whether the
destruction. Should the United States need to United States had effective defenses against
defend its interests and principles with military such advanced delivery systems or not.
force—whether acting unilaterally or under mul-
tilateral auspices such as those of the United
Nations—U.S. armed forces or territory might
PROLIFERATION THREATS AND
become targets for weapons of mass destruction.
PROSPECTS
The threat of nuclear attack is nothing new to Only five countries (the United States, Russia,
the United States. Having faced a massive Soviet the United Kingdom, France, and China) ac-
nuclear arsenal for decades, the United States has knowledge possessing nuclear weapon stock-
shown itself willing at least to contemplate the piles. 7 Three more-Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and
loss of many U.S. cities, and millions of Ameri- Belarus--have former Soviet strategic nuclear
can lives, to ensure its own survival and the weapons located within their borders (although as
survival of the states under its nuclear umbrella. yet they do not control them), and it is not yet
(Granted, this posture has always posed problems certain that they will give them up. Only three
for many who questioned what “national sur- states (United States, Russia, and Iraq) say they
vival’ means in the context of tens, let alone have chemical weapon arsenals, and all of these
hundreds or thousands, of nuclear weapons deto- weapons are in the process of, or are slated for,
nating on U.S. territory.) At the same time, destruction. No countries admit to active offen-
7 South Africa has acknowledged having assembled six nuclear weapons but says it has since destroyed them.
Chapter 1-Introduction and Summary I 13
sive biological weapon programs.8 Few countries, India, which tested a nuclear device in 1974 and
therefore, are overtly deploying or preparing to probably has stockpiles of nuclear weapon ma-
deploy weapons of mass destruction. The diffi- terial available, but has made no overt moves to
culty in assessing the extent of the proliferation develop a nuclear arsenal; and Pakistan, which is
threat lies in determinin g which states are doing cut off from U.S. military aid because the
so secretly. Merely counting the states that today President cannot certify that it does not possess a
are capable of mounting a program to produce nuclear explosive device.9 None of these coun-
weapons of mass destruction inflates the prolifer- tries is a member of the Nuclear Non-
ation threat considerably, just as counting only Proliferation Treaty. South Africa has admitted
the states acknowledging such production errs in to mounting a nuclear weapon program that
the opposite direction. culminated in the construction of six nuclear
This report names countries commonly cited in weapons, confirming suspicions that had in-
the public literature as having nuclear, chemical, cluded it in this threshold category. However,
or biological weapons, or as having programs to stating that it has destroyed those weapons, it has
acquire them. Consistent with the unclassified since joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
nature of this report, the estimates given here as a non-nuclear-weapon state and opened up its
are not based on classified sources and should nuclear facilities to international inspection. Lit-
in no way be considered authoritative or tle information has been released so far on the
indicative of official U.S. Government assess- results of those inspections, but to date (June
ments. Therefore, the tables in this report may 1993) they have not resolved ‘serious questions’
well disagree in some respects with the best that the United States has concerning South
intelligence information available to the U.S. Africa’s compliance with its NPT obligations.10
Government, which itself can be uncertain and A few other states reputed to have nuclear
incomplete. If an incomplete public understand-
weapon programs are apparently not as far
ing of the current extent of proliferation poses
advanced as the above four: Iran and Libya, both
problems for U.S. nonproliferation policy, it
NPT members; North Korea, which has given
behooves U.S. policymakers to ensure that the
and then retracted notice of its intent to withdraw
open literature better reflects the actual state of
from the NPT, and possibly Algeria, which is not
affairs.
an NPT member. North Korea appeared to have
taken steps to back away from its nuclear weapon
1 Keeping Score program, permitting inspection (after years of
Besides the five acknowledged nuclear powers delay) of facilities that clearly seem to have been
and the three non-Russian former Soviet repub- intended for nuclear weapon production. How-
lics that still have nuclear weapons on their ever, after having been caught attempting to
territory, only three “threshold states” appear to mislead international inspectors as to the extent of
possess nuclear weapons or have the ability to its nuclear program, it refused to open other
deploy them on short notice: Israel, which is suspicious facilities for inspection. Rather than
widely believed to have a clandestine arsenal; comply with its commitment under the NPT to
8 Ru~~ia ~ ~~~ tit the Soviet Ution’s Offmive biologic~ w~pon prog~ pe~isf~ titer the U.S.S.R. signed the Biological
Weapon Convention banning such work but insists that this program has since been halted.
9 ~ 1~, p~~>s FOr~@ s~~~ W= quoted u d~lm tit P~SW ~ w the p@ for a nuclw weapon. He subst!quen~y
retraeted this statement, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs claiming he had been misquoted.
1° “Adherence to and Compliance with Arms Control Agreements and the President’s Report to Congress on Soviet Noneomplianee with
Arms Control Agreements,” prepared by the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, Jan. 14, 1993, p. 18.
14 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
cooperate with such inspections, it gave notice of their delivery systems, figure 1-1 may understate
its intent to withdraw from the NPT, becoming the number of countries pursuing such systems.11
the first nation ever to do so. To many observers, Part of the discrepancy may be states that are
such actions confirm that North Korea not only pursuing delivery systems but not nuclear, chemi-
had been pursuing nuclear weapons all along, but cal, or biological weapons, which would not be
seeks to preserve the capability to do so. included in figure 1-1; the remainder might
Iraq is a special case. Although the 1991 Gulf indicate countries suspected by U.S. intelligence
War and its aftermath arrested and reversed Iraq’s of pursuing such weapons but not yet identified in
nuclear weapon program before it could come to open sources.
fruition, United Nations inspections showed the Most of the states listed in figure 1-1 have
program to have been much broader and more bought or developed simple ballistic missiles
advanced than Western intelligence agencies had with at least the capability of Scud missiles. All
suspected. Few observers doubt that the program have combat aircraft with characteristics that
will resume in the absence of the extraordinarily make them candidates for delivering weapons of
international monitoring efforts imposed upon mass destruction. None seems to have cruise
Iraq by the United Nations Security Council. missiles adapted to this purpose, but the spread of
Argentina and Brazil in the past had been applicable technologies makes cruise missiles a
thought to be pursuing nuclear programs, albeit threat to be concerned about in the future.
ones that were less advanced than those of the Three features stand out in the combined
threshold states. In recent years, however, they perspective offered by figure 1-1. First, the
have agreed to open up their nuclear facilities to estimate for the current number of states
bilateral and international inspection to assure actively pursuing nuclear weapons is small,
each other and the rest of the world that they are and smaller than it might have been a few
not developing nuclear weapons. years ago. Second, the set of countries trying to
Public reports of the extent of chemical and acquire nuclear weapons overlaps consider-
biological proliferation differ with each other more ably with the set suspected of having chemical
than do assessments of nuclear proliferation. OTA and biological weapon programs. Third, the
has reviewed several compilations of states sus- most immediate and serious threats (beyond
pected of pursuing chemical or biological weap- the potential threat posed by former Soviet
ons; those states appearing in a preponderance of republics) are concentrated in three regions of
these lists are identified in figure 1-1, together international rivalry: the Koreas, India-
with the states mentioned above as still suspected Pakistan, and the Middle East.
of pursuing nuclear weapons. (See ch. 2.) Longer term assessments of the extent of
In all, 14 countries are listed in figure 1-1 as proliferation are harder to make, although some
widely believed to possess or to be pursuing trends are clear. For example, for ‘at least another
nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons. Given decade,” only China, Russia, and possibly Ukraine,
official U.S. Government statements that ‘‘more Kazakhstan, and Belarus--all possessing weap-
than 25 countries . . . may have or may be ons that have long been capable of being targeted
developing” weapons of mass destruction and at the United States—will pose a ballistic missile
11 ~~ony Of R. J-es WOOlsey, Director of Central Intelligence, before the Senate Committee on Gvernmmtd M*S, Feb. w, 1993.
Although he gave some information on the activities of some countries, his testimony did not identify all of the states believed by the United
States to be pursuing weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems, much less specify which ones are pursuing which weapons.
Chapter I-Introduction and Summary 15
threat to the territory of the United States. 12 Figure l-l-Suspected Weapon of Mass
Projections of the future number of nuclear, Destruction Programs
chemical, or biological powers are more elusive.
It is hard to determine even the present status and
anticipated progress of existing programs. Even Prolifera;t 1
with the wealth of information that has been nuclear Algeria?
weapon India
uncovered about the Iraqi nuclear weapon pro- pr~gram Pakistan
\
gram, for example, experts disagree over how
long it would have taken the Iraqis to assemble a
working weapon. Moreover, extrapolating from
current trends can be misleading. We have
already noted several examples of apparent ‘roll-
back” in nuclear weapon programs. Further
Myanmar (Burma)
changes in the world situation, including those Vietnam
\ \ Chinal
that nonproliferation policies seek to bring about,
will affect the extent of future proliferation. ‘/ Chemical Biological
/
arsenal weapon
development
1 Trends Fostering Proliferation (probable or
possible) ‘(possible)
12 Row M. ~tcS, D~tO~ of c~~~ ~te]lig~e, wore tie Semte Gove~en~ ~~ COtitt&, J~. 15, 1992. Sti “W~pO~
Proliferation in the New World Order,” S. Hrg. 102-720, 102d Cong., 2d Sessiou Jan. 15, 1992, p. 7. Britain and France, with
submarine-launched ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States, are not considered to pose a threat.
16 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
13 fib ~ ~- disputes with ‘lhrkey, a NATO member, bave the potential to involve the United States directly.
14 For &~uSSiO~ of be spread of conventio~ fi~ ~~ology, see TJ,S. Co-ss, ~lce of khoIo~ Assessmen~ G/oh/ /h2.f
Trude, O’IA-ISC+60 (Washington, DC: U.S. Gov ernment Frinting Office, June 1991).
Chapter 1-Introduction and Summary I 17
RESISTANCE TO DISCRIMINATORY REGIMES 138 at the end of 1989 to 157 by January 1, 1993.
A few developing countries, most notably Two of the nuclear weapon states that did not
India, object to external attempts to deny them originally join the NPT (China and France) have
nuclear and missile-related technologies that are joined in the last two years, as did a hold-out state
accepted as legitimate for certain other countries, that has admitted having produced nuclear weap-
Nevertheless, most nations of the world have ons outside the NPT (South Africa). Although
been willing to live with the two-tiered, nuclear/non- three non-signatories are believed to have actual
nuclear structure of the NPT. This factor is not an or potential nuclear weapon capabilities (Israel,
issue with the Chemical Weapons Convention or India, and Pakistan), no states have declared
the Biological Weapons Convention, both of themselves to be nuclear powers since China in
which apply to all states without distinction. 1964. No non-nuclear members of the NPT have
‘‘gone nuclear,’ although a few have been trying.
WEAKENED TABOO AGAINST CHEMICAL The deep reductions in nuclear forces under-
WEAPON USE
taken by the United States and Russia mean that
The 1925 Geneva Protocol prohibits the use of
both countries are finally making visible progress
chemical and biological agents in warfare. This
on their NPT obligation to ‘‘pursue negotiations
ban was observed in most of the conflicts
in good faith on effective measures relating to
following its entry into force, including World
cessation of the nuclear arms race, ’ even though
War II (except the use by Japan, then a non-party,
they seem unlikely to seriously pursue the NPT
of chemical and biological weapons in China).
goal of “general and complete disarmament. ”
However, more recent instances of chemical
weapon use have weakened this international Progress in superpower nuclear arms reductions
norm. In particular, Iraqi use against Iran in the could undermine longstanding complaints about
1980s may have demonstrated to some defense the discriminatory nature of the NPT that might
planners that chemical weapons can be a useful otherwise have hurt the treaty’s chances for
military tool. renewal when it comes up for extension in 1995.
On the other hand, North Korea would deal the
nonproliferation regime a serious blow if it
I Trends Favoring Nonproliferation Efforts proceeds to withdraw from the NPT
Should Russia revert to a foreign policy that is and using it to build and operate other facilities
seriously threatening to Western interests, non- that are not open to international inspection or
proliferation will be set back. Granted, even controls.
during the Cold War, the Soviet Union took a
strong stance against nuclear proliferation, and an U.N. ACTIONS IN IRAQ
anti-Western Russia would likely do the same. Besides reversing Iraqi mass destruction weapon
But future efforts to contain the spread of all types programs, recent U.N. Security Council resolu-
of weapons of mass destruction will require tions make approving references to international
significant Russian-United States cooperation in nonproliferation and disarmament treaties, set-
support of nonproliferation norms, not just paral- ting useful precedents in demonstrating interna-
lel policies in limited areas (see ch. 3). tional resolve against weapons of mass destruc-
tion. The Security Council has also taken on both
RECENT REVERSALS OF NATIONAL POLICIES short- and long-term onsite monitoring tasks to
Reversals in the nuclear weapon programs of assure that its decisions mandating elimination of
Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, and (albeit invol- Iraqi weapons of mass destruction are carried out.
untarily) Iraq follow decisions in earlier decades
by Sweden, South Korea, and Taiwan to halt CHEMICAL WEAPONS DISARMAMENT AND
programs that had seemed directed at nuclear THE CHEMICAL WEAPONS CONVENTION
acquisition. Such reversals, however, are them- The two largest chemical weapon powers, the
selves reversible: despite some moves by North United States and Russia, have committed them-
Korea to open up to international inspection, its selves to the destruction of their chemical arse-
subsequent actions have given rise to serious nals, together with their development and produc-
doubts. tion facilities. The Iraqi chemical arsenal is being
dismantled under U.N. supervision. Most signifi-
GROWING COOPERATION IN EXPORT cantly, the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC),
CONTROL REGIMES signed by more than 140 states in early 1993, bans
Several multilateral groups have formed to for the first time the development, production,
control the export of equipment or materials that and possession of chemical weapons (in addition
might be used in the production of weapons of to their use) and reinforces the international norm
mass destruction or of missiles. These control against chemical weapons. Regardless of any
regimes have been strengthened in the past few doubts that may remain as to whether the CWC’s
years, both by covering additional items and by verification regime is adequate to the task and
expanding their membership. Particularly notable whether it will be stringently implemented, the
is the April 1992 decision of the 27-member Convention strengthens the international consen-
Nuclear Suppliers Group to require importers of sus that chemical weapons are illegitimate. If
nuclear technology to accept international moni- some nation were to use chemical weapons in the
toring (through the International Atomic Energy future, the international community may feel
Agency’s system of safeguards) over their entire committed to react more strongly than it did
nuclear programs, not just over the particular against Iraq’s use in the 1980s.
facilities built with imported technology. This
action leaves China as the only supplier of nuclear BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS CONVENTION
technology that does not require such ‘full-scope VERIFICATION
safeguards’ as a condition of sale. By requiring In the wake of the Russian admission that the
full-scope safeguards, exporters prevent states Soviet Union had violated the Biological Weap-
from acquiring expertise in safeguarded facilities ons Convention, the United States, the United
Chapter 1-Introduction and Summary 19
Kingdom, and Russia have agreed on a program knowledge; adopting export controls; taking dip-
to inspect each other’s biological facilities.15 lomatic or other action to stop exports by third
Although states that have joined the Convention parties; and acting to stop or discourage experts
disagree over the feasibility or desirability of a from providing assistance. Since the United
formal verification regime, an international Ad States is not the only source of technology,
Hoc Group of Governmental Experts on Verifica- knowledge, or other support that might be
tion (VEREX) is considering potential verifica- useful to a proliferant, such measures must be
tion measures. imposed multilaterally to be effective. At the
In sum, despite some dangerous trends and same time, however, U.S. leadership is neces-
many uncertainties, the world community has sary to mobilize effective international cooper-
significant new opportunities to curtail, and ation.
perhaps roll back, the spread of weapons of mass If, despite these barriers, a proliferant nation
destruction. manages to acquire facilities for a weapon pro-
gram that another country or countries deem to
THE NONPROLIFERATION POLICY pose an intolerable security threat, the ultimate
CONTEXT recourse might be to impose another kind of
The United States and other countries con- obstacle: destroying the facilities by military
cerned about the proliferation of weapons of mass attack. However, such an approach is fraught with
destruction have instituted measures seeking to legal, political, and operational difficulties, and
impose obstacles to the acquisition of weapons of must be considered at most as a last resort.
mass destruction; to create disincentives in order
to deter states from developing such weapons or EXPORT CONTROLS
to persuade them to reverse course; to offer Export controls are intended to block the most
benefits to states that agree to forgo such straightforward paths to developing weapons of
attempts; and to develop security improvements mass destruction and to raise the price and the
to reduce the perceived needs for the weapons. time required for alternate approaches. They can
These measures have been implemented to date also provide information valuable for monitoring
through three primary mechanisms: national programs to develop weapons of mass destruc-
policies and laws governing states’ actions with tion. Export controls will remain an important
respect to others that are developing or assisting component of nonproliferation policy for years,
in the development of weapons of mass destruc- especially in the nuclear area. However, control
tion; multinational agreements to restrict ex- regimes can be defeated if their targets can
ports of certain technologies or to take action “invent around” restricted technologies or prod-
against those states found to be violating interna- ucts, if controls are attempted on goods that are
tional nonproliferation norms; and international too widely available, or if some potential suppli-
treaties and institutions open to all states who ers are not included. Moreover, it is very difficult
agree to subscribe to their principles. to control the education of scientists and engi-
neers in one country who may later return or
I Imposing Obstacles to Proliferation migrate to another to develop weapons of mass
Obstacles that can be put in the way of states destruction.
trying to acquire weapons of mass destruction In the United States, export controls are estab-
include using secrecy to restrict the flow of lished by a number of public laws and regulations
15 ‘CJOint u.s.~.K,~USSi~ Statement on Biological weapons,’ Sept. 14, 1992, reproduced in The Arms Control Reporter (Cambridge,
MA: Institute for Defense and Disarmament Studies, 1992), vol. 11 (1992), p. 701 .D.l
20 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
(see ch. 3), and they are also formally or infor- Military action involves very high risk. Opera-
mally coordinated with those of other states. They tionally, the attacking country or group of coun-
now cover a range of technologies related to tries must contend with questions about the
nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, as well quality of its intelligence, how well the attack can
as ballistic missiles and conventional armaments. be executed, and how badly the attack will
damage the proliferant state’s weapon program.
SANCTIONS AGAINST SUPPLIERS As the Israeli raid showed, military attack is not
The United States can impede weapon pro-
a permanent solution. Strategically, a potential
grams in proliferant states by helping foreign
attacker must consider the degree of international
governments block aid that their own citizens or
backing it is likely to expect and the prospect of
corporations may be providing such programs. If
retaliation (military, diplomatic, or terrorist).
U.S. intelligence uncovers foreign plans to pro-
Military action that is not explicitly sanctioned by
vide such assistance, the United States can
request the government having jurisdiction over the international community risks damaging con-
such activities to stop them. In addition, U.S. laws sensus on future cooperative nonproliferation
can impose sanctions directly against foreign policies and might even build sympathy for the
individuals or companies, including criminal victim of the attack.
penalties, debarment from U.S. Government pro-
curement, and denial of access to the U.S. market B Disincentives and Sanctions Against
(see ch. 3). Should a foreign government itself be
Proliferants
aiding proliferation, the United States can take
Mechanisms exist in U.S. law—but are not laid
diplomatic measures against it such as denial of
out in international law—to punish states found to
trade preferences, arms transfers, or financial
have used weapons of mass destruction or to have
assistance.
engaged in activities related to their development
MILITARY ACTION (see ch. 3). At the international level, enforcement
In extreme cases, the United States, another of international nonproliferation commitments
nation, or a multinational coalition might feel falls to the United Nations Security Council,
compelled to attack facilities, equipment, or which has the authority to respond to ‘‘threats to
materials believed to be connected to weapons of international peace and security” by imposing
mass destruction. However, if not authorized by measures such as sanctions, severance of travel
the United Nations Security Council, such an and communication links, diplomatic isolation, or
action would generally be viewed as contrary to even military action under Chapter VII of the
international law unless it could be shown to be United Nations charter.16 Actions of the Security
required for national self-defense, and unless Council are binding upon all U.N. members.
other means short of attack had been exhausted. Security Council enforcement of existing nonpro-
(Although they made precisely those arguments, liferation commitments such as the Nuclear
the Israelis were unable to convince the world Non-Proliferation Treaty and the 1925 Geneva
community that their 1981 raid against Iraq’s Protocol could deter further proliferation and
Osirak nuclear reactor was justified.)
16 BY ~emelves, ~~~tio~ org~~tions involved with nonproliferation such as the hNerrMtiOnd Atomic mewAFcy, ~i~Y ~
take no punitive action stronger than expelling members found to have violated their commitments to the organization. However, the IAEA
can refer evidence of violations to the United Nations Security Council for further action. It did so for the first time in APIN 1993, when it found
North Korea in violation of its safeguards agreement.
.—
IT me 1925 ~nev~ Protwol bans use, but not development, production or stockpiling, of chtictd ~d ‘ ‘b=teriolo@d” w~om. my
states ratifying it reserved the right to retaliate in kind against chemical or biologicalattack or considered it binding only with respect to other
signatories. ‘Iherefore, it effectively became a ‘‘nofwst use” agreement. Moreover, no attempts have ever been made to enforce it against
violators. Signatones who have since acceded to the Chemical and the Biological Weapons Conventions, which unconditionally ban those
weapons, have rescinded their reservations to the Geneva Protocol.
.-
political or military needs can be met in some weapons of others. This deal underlies regional or
other way. global arms control arrangements such as the
Although it is not likely to sway a determined Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Chemical
proliferant, financial, technical, and other devel- Weapons Convention, the Biological Weapons
opment assistance can be offered to states forgo- Convention, the Latin American Nuclear-Free
ing the development of weapons of mass destruc- Zone (Treaty of Tlatelolco), and the South Pacific
tion. 18 Exemptions from export controls on dual- Nuclear-Free Zone (Treaty of Rarotonga). These
use items, or preferential access to international treaties codify the international norms against
aid organizations, might also be offered. The weapons of mass destruction and have value for
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), for in- that reason alone. Beyond that, however, most of
stance, promises technical assistance in the peace- them are also associated with verification regimes
ful uses of atomic energy, including medical and intended to permit parties to assure each other that
agricultural applications. Note, however, that they are in compliance (see box l-A).
such assistance can be a double-edged sword, Nonproliferation treaties involve a “free-
since familiarity with nuclear technology can rider” problem: states that remain outside the
contribute to military as well as peaceful goals. regime can sometimes enjoy the benefit of
The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) of- reducing the threat to themselves without having
fers more in the way of incentives than the NPT, to pay the price of giving up their own weapon
19
promising not only access to chemical technology options. Moreover, the NPT—which permits
but also various assurances to parties who find the United States, Russia, Britain, France, and
themselves threatened or attacked with chemical China to retain their nuclear arsenals--does not
weapons. Members of the CWC envisage that eliminate the potential nuclear threat that member-
chemical weapon-related export controls will be states may believe these nations to pose. (It does,
relaxed against member-states judged to be in however, commit the nuclear weapons states to
compliance. The Biological Weapons Conven- pursue nuclear disarmament and to assist non-
tion (BWC) makes similar provisions for promot- nuclear states in their peaceful nuclear programs.)
ing transfers of biotechnology to member-states, The long-run success of nonproliferation pol-
although these have never been implemented. icy is likely to depend, at least in part, on the
reduction of the security threats used to just@
1 Security Benefits To Reduce the Demand acquisition of weapons of mass destruction. The
for Proliferation security problems in each region of proliferation
Technical assistance notwithstanding, the cen- concern are different; each will require specially
tral bargain of consensual nonproliferation agree- tailored arrangements if parties are to trust one
ments is that states give up their own rights to another enough to halt or reverse their military
acquire weapons of mass destruction on the competitions. Such arrangements may consist of
condition that they will not be needed to deter the combinations of political accommodations, eco-
18 ~tead of s- -y as an ~centive to adopt other nonproliferation policies, development assistance could itself be a
nonproliferation measure to the extent that lack of developmen~ economic deprivation, and competition for economic resources are a source
of conflict. Similarly, policies that alleviate international tensions resulting from demographic trends, differing political systems, ideology, and
resource pressures can also be considered nonproliferation measures. Analysis of such policies, however, goes outside the scope of this
assessment.
19 For this r~o% tie Treaty of ‘rlatelolco contains a provision that keeps it ~rn coming into force until all states ill the region beCOme
members. Twenty-three of the Treaty’s parties have waived this provision accepting the Treaty’s obligations. Brazil and Chile, which had not
previously waived the provisioq and Argentina and Cub% which had not entered the TrtXy at all, have recently said they will join the Treaty
or permit it to enter into force for them.
...
1 S* office of T~nology Assessment, The Chernlca/ Wbapons ConventIon: Effecfs on the U.S. Cht?mM
/ndustry, OTA-BP-ISC-1O6 (Washington DC, U.S. Government Printing Office, August 1993).
(Continued on nextpag8)
24 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
z TIW ~r~ IMNW Of ttw aioiogld Wapons Convention k the “Convention on the Prohibition of the
i)eveioprnm~ Production and $tookpiiing of Bactedoiogkai (Bioiogioai) and Toxin Weapons and on Their
Destruction.”
nomic measures, military confidence-building a potential threat to their neighbors that will make
measures, and arms control. They may also it harder to resolve the regional security situation.
involve security guarantees provided to regional Some analysts go so far as to assert that a
states by powers outside the region (positive transformation of the whole basis of global
security assurances), or assurances from extra- security will be required to have any chance of
regional powers that military force-or weapons inducing restraint among many of the states that
of mass destruction-will not be used against might otherwise turn to weapons of mass destruc-
regional states (negative security assurances). tion. Proliferation cannot be controlled, they
Regional security measures and nonprolif- argue, unless the international political system is
eration policies have to proceed in tandem. fundamentally changed from one in which states
States lacking confidence in regional security assure their own security through their military
arrangements may be unwilling to forgo develop- forces and alliances, to a “cooperative security”
ment of weapons of mass destruction, thus posing regime in which states do not maintain forces
Chapter 1-Introduction and Summary 25
sufficient to conduct aggression in the first place. dilemmas. The established nuclear powers may
With the Cold War over, these analysts believe it conclude that if additional states are going to
is now possible to move towards such a world. develop and deploy nuclear weapons anyway, it
would be prudent to minimize the risk that those
weapons might actually be used. Therefore, they
~ When Nonproliferation Fails
might wish to help the emerging nuclear powers
The United States cannot assume that all those
develop stabilizing doctrines of deployment and
states now acquiring or possessing weapons of
mass destruction will soon renounce them, nor deterrence, and implement appropriate technical
that future nonproliferation policies will be 100 safeguards against accidental or unauthorized
percent effective. It must therefore consider use. However, this would be tantamount to
measures to mitigate the consequences of prolif- admitting these states into the nuclear club,
eration for U.S. and international security. showing that proliferation can lead not to interna-
Modifying U.S. military force structure and tional condemnation but to legitimacy and even
operational planning to cope with prolifera- enhanced status.
tion is unquestionably an important task for
U.S. policy makers. If they prove technically CONFLICTING OBJECTIVES
feasible, actions such as improving intelligence Many of the choices to be made in designing
capabilities or adopting passive and active de- and implementing nonproliferation policies are
fenses might improve U.S. military capabilities
between potentially conflicting objectives; that is,
without interfering with nonproliferation objec-
the extent to which nonproliferation should take
tives. Indeed, by lessening the military value of an
precedence over other objectives of U.S. policy
opponent’s weapons of mass destruction, such
when they cannot both be pursued simultane-
actions can simultaneously serve to deter an
ously. Certainly the end of the Cold War has
opponent from acquiring such weapons, and to
removed one such conflict, eliminating what had
deter or militarily counter their use if acquired
been an overriding concern and permitting non-
anyway.
proliferation to take much greater priority. Yet
Other preparations to mitigate the conse-
tensions between nonproliferation and other pol-
quences of proliferation, however, might exac-
icy objectives continue to force tradeoffs.
erbate the process of proliferation. For exam-
ple, the existing nuclear powers might wish to Many conflicts between competing goals are
deter or even to prevent chemical or biological mirrored in the organizational structure of the
attack by holding out the prospect of using U.S. Government, with particular agencies pursu-
nuclear weapons. Giving nuclear weapons this ing missions that at times conflict with each other.
mission, however, could increase their perceived With the possible exception of the Arms
utility and status, weakening nuclear nonprolifer- Control and Disarmament Agency, whose com-
ation efforts. Moreover, advertising a willingness plete agenda in the post-Cold War organiza-
to use even conventional force to preempt or to tion of the U.S. Government is still evolving, no
respond to proliferation may persuade some single agency has nonproliferation as its pri-
countries not to forgo weapons of mass destruc- mary mission. The other agencies that have the
tion, but instead to seek them as a counter- greatest roles in nonproliferation policy-the
deterrent. Departments of State, Defense, Energy, and Com-
Other measures short of military force might merce—are all charged with pursuing other goals
lessen the chances that proliferation will lead to that can compete with nonproliferation, some of
use of nuclear weapons, but these pose serious which are described below.
26 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
[
Nonproliferation <“ ‘- -
“ – — - - - -
— — > Other foreign policy objectives
Exporl controls G- ‘- ‘ - -
-’~ Export promotion
The pairings depicted in figure 1-2 and summa- nuclear and ballistic missile arsenal. Even if
rized below are not discrete alternatives, but Israeli weapons of mass destruction are not
rather opposite poles of a continuum. Intermedi- themselves deemed to threaten the United States
ate positions are certainly possible, but seeking or U.S. interests, however, their implicit accep-
one goal will generally imply lessening emphasis tance complicates nonproliferation policy. Other
on the other. These choices must be made on a states condemn U.S. policy as reflecting one
case-by-case basis, since the appropriate balance standard for friends and another for all other
between conflicting objectives varies depending countries, hampering attempts to build interna-
on the individual situation. tional consensus behind nonproliferation policies.
U.S. policy towards China also illustrates
tensions among conflicting objectives. U.S. poli-
9 Nonproliferation v. Other Foreign
cymakers have sought to stop Chinese sales of
Policy Objectives nuclear and missile technology. At the same time,
U.S. relationships with other states involve a they must also take note of China’s overall
host of objectives, both generic and country-
strategic importance in the Pacific region, its
specific. For example, the U.S. Government may growing economic clout, the need to gain China’s
wish to maintain favorable relations with other agreement (or at least its acquiescence) in U.N.
states, encourage them to support U.S. positions Security Council actions, and the desire to pro-
in international fora, restrain their conventional mote human rights and democratization within
arms buildups, promote exports, support human China. Threatening to revoke China’s “most-favored-
rights, and work towards common environmental
nation” (MFN) status potentially provides the
goals. Expending limited U.S. influence to stress United States considerable leverage over China,
nonproliferation goals may mean losing a target
just as threatening to withhold the U.S. commit-
state’s cooperation on other matters, or even
ment to Israeli security provides leverage over
provoking its hostility.
Israel. In both cases, however, other factors that
Consider the cases of Israel and China. Israel outweighed nonproliferation have so far kept
has a very strong, longstanding relationship with these threats from being executed.
the United States, one in which nonproliferation
has never figured prominently. Ensuring the
security of a democratic ally threatened by hostile # Export Controls v. Export Promotion
neighbors has outweighed whatever concern the The push to improve U.S. economic perform-
United States has had over Israel’s apparent ance, increase jobs, and rectify the trade imbal-
_
m M. Grmger Morg~ ad ~tchel B. w~erste~ ‘‘controlling the I-I@ Technology Militarization of the D=elopti worlds” J~es
Goodby, cd., Bipolarity Revisited: Problems in North-south Security Relations Ajier the Cold War, (Oxford University Press, in press).
28 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
unilateral initiatives play in shaping multilateral weapons are given a prominent role in ensuring
consenses. Multilateral control regimes aimed at the security of the United States and its allies--
different weapons of mass destruction and deliv- particularly against threats from non-nuclear
ery systems have evolved separately; they have powers-it becomes harder to make the case that
differing memberships, procedures, and objec- other countries should not be able to address their
tives. Participating governments may wish to security concerns in similar ways. Granted, reten-
examine the existing structure of these multilat- tion by the United States of its nuclear arsenal is
eral regimes to see if tighter coordination, or very unlikely to be the sole factor inducing
consolidation, is desirable or feasible. another state to pursue nuclear weapons. How-
ever, U.S. decisions involving continued nuclear
1 Monitoring Others v. Avoiding the weapon development and testing, continued pro-
Costs of Being Monitoring duction of nuclear weapon materials, or reliance
Nonproliferation regimes are strengthened by on nuclear threats against nonnuclear attack, will
empowering international nonproliferation or- certainly influence nuclear nonproliferation norms.
ganizations to make intrusive onsite inspections Some argue that in the long run, there is no way
of suspect activities (see box l-A). Yet states will to sustain a stable world order in which some
not easily accept such inspections unless other states possess nuclear weapons but all others are
states do likewise.21 If the United States expects forbidden to acquire them. In such a view,
other states to provide access to outside inspec- stopping nuclear proliferation is impossible with-
tors, it may have to open itself up to inspection as out a universal prohibition against national nu-
well. Such inspections have costs that must be clear arsenals, with all nuclear weapons either
weighed against their nonproliferation benefits. placed in the hands of a supranational organiza-
In addition to the disruption of normal activities, tion or banned entirely. However, such a world
U.S. Government or industrial facilities exposed still seems remote.
to foreign inspections must incur costs to protect
classified or proprietary information unrelated to 1 Preventing Proliferation. Preventing Use
the purpose of the inspection. Even greater costs As discussed above, some measures to reduce
might be incurred by failing to protect such the risk that nuclear weapons might be used—
information, or by inadvertently disclosing se- measures that would require the acknowledge-
crets that might actually aid a proliferant’s own ment of new nuclear powers—would actually
weapon programs. conflict with controlling proliferation by other
states in the longer term.
1 Nuclear Nonproliferation v. Nuclear This conflict arises only in the case of nuclear
Deterrence weapons, since the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
One way to reduce the appeal of nuclear Treaty prohibits not their existence but their
weapons is to reemphasize the role they play in spread beyond the five acknowledged nuclear
international relations. But to do so would mean powers. Although it would be extremely contro-
that the nuclear powers must rely on them less, versial, one could imagine a change to the nuclear
weakening the credibility and utility of U.S. nonproliferation regime that legitimized nuclear
nuclear deterrent threats--especially those in- arsenals in additional states. The challenge would
tended to deter military actions short of nuclear be to assure that such a change would not lead to
attack. Conversely, to the extent that nuclear further proliferation, and further admissions to the
21 ~ unit~ Nations inspwtioxIs of Iraq, which have the right to go anywhere at any time, are part of a regime @Kxed upon a defeated
power and cannot be considered a precedent for inspection provisions that states would accept voluntarily.
Chapter 1-Introduction and Summary 29
nuclear club, in future years. In the case of the planner, all such weapons in the hands of poten-
Chemical and Biological Weapons Conventions, tial adversaries-mass destruction or conven-
which impose global bans, exceptions that legiti- tional-make it more difficult to deter war or to
mized the chemical or biological arsenals of one prevail should war erupt. Elements within the
or more countries would be totally incompatible Pentagon now define proliferation as “the desta-
with the treaties themselves. bilizing spread, especially to countries of concern
in key regions, of a wide array of dangerous
CONFLICTING APPROACHES military capabilities, supporting capabilities, al-
In addition to choices between nonproliferation lied technologies, or know-how,” placing weap-
and other policy objectives, balances must also be ons of mass destruction at one end of a consider-
struck between conflicting approaches to nonpro- ably broader spectrum of concerns.22 Such a view
liferation policy. Like the preceding set, these argues for an integrated strategy in response.
approaches--summarized in figure 1-3--do not Other linkages between weapons of mass
represent diametrically opposed positions, but destruction and conventional weapons also exist.
rather indicate opposing tensions that must be A given delivery system might be adapted to carry
balanced against each other. either class of weapon, linking a state’s conven-
tional military power with its capability to deliver
B Scope of Control Efforts weapons of mass destruction. Similarly, one
As noted in the beg inning of this chapter, the state’s conventional forces can motivate an oppo-
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction nent to seek nuclear, chemical, or biological
takes place within the context of the proliferation weapons in response, linking a state’s conven-
of military capability more generally. Low- tional military forces with its opponent’s mass-
technology weapons, advanced conventional weap- destruction weapons. As stated earlier, some
ons, and the command, control, communications, analysts go so far as to argue that weapons of mass
and intelligence infrastructure needed to use these destruction cannot be controlled in the long run
weapons most effectively are all spreading around without effective limitations on other aspects of
the world. From the point of view of a military military power as well.
22 Under s~re~ of Defense for Policy-Transition Worhg pap% “Spezial Transition Ropotiounterproliferation Strategy, ”
Counterproliferation Initiative, Feb. 2, 1993.
30 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
A contrasting view notes that weapons of mass such cases, the United States will have to decide
destruction differ markedly from other military whether to preserve consensus, at the risk of not
systems in terms of international legitimacy. taking what it sees to be appropriate action, or to
Whereas the pursuit of nuclear, chemical, and proceed unilaterally, at the risk of disrupting
biological weapons can be deemed violations of international consensus.
international norms, conventional arms have long Those analysts emphasizing consensus typi-
been accepted as legitimate and necessary to a cally stress that proliferation should be treated as
state’s self-defense. No objective standards exist a violation of international norms of behavior.
to differentiate acceptable levels of conventional They argue that nonproliferation policies with
military capability from levels that pose threats to widespread international legitimacy will be much
“international peace and security. ” Therefore, more effective than ones viewed primarily as
those extending nonproliferation policy to in- furthering the objectives of the United States or
clude conventional armed forces cannot avoid any other single power. This approach empha-
basing their decisions at least in part on their sizes the role of international institutions, as
individual national interests-interests that may opposed to individual states, because such institu-
not be shared by other nations. Mobilizing tions provide a greater degree of international
effective international nonproliferation efforts support. However, a drawback of this approach is
will therefore become that much harder. More- that unless each nation places high priority on
over, those who see the proliferation of weapons nonproliferation, each will have reason to
of mass destruction as far more dangerous than downplay it at times (see above discussion on
the spread of conventional, or even advanced conflicting objectives). Therefore, the cases in
conventional, weapons, would not wish to divert which consensus for international action can be
effort away from the more serious threat. reached might be considerably fewer than many
The linkages between conventional arms and states individually might wish. At the same
weapons of mass destruction can give rise to time-and largely for the same reason-nations
paradoxes. In the past, one policy measure have traditionally been reluctant to cede authority
employed by the United States to reduce a state’s to international bodies that might later act in
(e.g., Pakistan’s) motivation to acquire nuclear opposition to their own interests. Thus, even
weapons had been to provide it with conventional when an international institution is able to iden-
arms (e.g., F-16 aircraft) in order to address its tify a consensus position, it may not be able to do
security needs. However, such planes can serve much.
multiple roles, conceivably including the delivery Proponents of an ‘‘internationalist’ approach
of Pakistan’s purported nuclear weapons. Thus, envision a world in which civilized nations agree
conventional arms transfers intended to reduce a on strong norms against the development, acqui-
state’s demand for weapons of mass destruction sition, production, threat, or use of weapons of
may actually have the effect of increasing its mass destruction, possibly excepting some resid-
capability to deliver them. ual nuclear capability in the nuclear weapon
states. States unwilling to subscribe to these
norms, or found to be violating them, would be
1 Balancing Unilateral and International considered by the others as pariahs. Such norms
Approaches can come about if-and only if-a very large
International cooperation is necessary for non- number of individual nations see them as compat-
proliferation to be successful. However, other ible with their own national interests. In that case,
nations will not always agree with the United states may be willing to use international institu-
States on either the problem or the solution. In tions for real enforcement, based on information
Chapter 1-Introduction and Summary 31
submitted by individual states or acquired di- in the long run, they can help raise the costs of
rectly. such programs and so discourage states from
Proponents of a more unilateral approach see pursuing them. In the near term, consensual
proliferation as a threat to U.S. national interests policies may not be accepted by those states most
against which the United States must take its own likely to develop or deploy weapons of mass
steps, whatever other nations may think or do. destruction. In the long run, however, the most
Although they would agree that nonproliferation effective nonproliferation measures are those in
policies are more effective if implemented multi- which states decide that it is in their own best
laterally, they argue that the United States should interest to forgo weapons of mass destruction.
not restrict its actions to cases where consensus Like the case of unilateral and multilateral
can be reached. In this view, international regimes approaches, coercive and consensual measures
strong enough to implement a consistent multilat- can be mutually supportive. Yet states may
eral approach are unlikely to emerge; at any rate, respond to coercion with defiance, refusing to
the United States should not put itself in the join nonproliferation regimes. Conflicts between
position of having to rely on them. Through the coercive and consensual measures may become
use of ad hoc coalitions, such as that assembled particularly relevant in cases where potential
for the Gulf War, the United States could gain the proliferants are in a position to export proliferation-
benefit of a group response while still preserving sensitive technology. Punitive measures aimed at
some freedom of independent action. The draw- discouraging the development of weapons of
back of U.S. action in the absence of international mass destruction in such states may make it
backing, however, is that it may antagonize other difficult to elicit their cooperation in forgoing
states whose cooperation will be needed to proliferation-sensitive exports.
implement a more effective multilateral policy.
Moreover, if a proliferant state can portray itself
not as an international pariah but instead as a 9 Balancing Targeted and Universal
victim of superpower bullying, it can encourage Approaches
other countries to withhold support from--or The targets of coercive U.S. nonproliferation
even to undermine--U.S. nonproliferation pol- policies such as export controls and sanctions can
icy. be chosen in one of two ways. In a targeted
approach, the United States applies these meas-
ures to specific countries determined to be of
1 Balancing Coercive and Consensual particular proliferation concern. In a universal
Policies approach, the target countries are not specified by
Nonproliferation policies include both coer- name, but rather consist of all states that meet
cive measures, imposed to frustrate efforts by given criteria such as violation of, or refusal to
states to develop weapons of mass destruction, join, international nonproliferation treaty regimes.
and consensual ones that invite states to voluntar- Given that the motivations for and the conse-
ily forgo such developments. Coercive measures quences of developing weapons of mass destruc-
tend to be directed against particular states. tion vary greatly from country to country, the
Consensual ones, on the other hand, typically targeted approach provides greater flexibility and
involve actions—such as joining treaty regimes— discretion for tailoring nonproliferation policy. In
that any state is free to take, and they therefore particular, it permits the United States to treat
avoid the need to single out targets. In the near states not considered security threats differently
term, coercive measures can impede progress from states judged to be particularly dangerous to
towards developing weapons of mass destruction; their neighbors or hostile towards U.S. interests.
32 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
For exactly this reason, however, targeted poli- new technologies. They also describe the level of
cies are harder than universal ones to justify and effort, commitment, and resources required for
implement multilaterally. Identifying some states any state to mount such developments, thereby
and not others as causes for concern unavoidably indicating the relative effects of increasing these
leads to charges of discrimination and double costs, for example, by export controls. Neverthe-
standards. 23 Moreover, the states implementing less, a country-by-country analysis of potential
multilateral nonproliferation policies will proba- proliferants’ indigenous technical expertise and
bly not agree on who the problem countries are. industrial infrastructure is beyond the scope of
this study. So, too, is a political assessment of the
1 Balancing Collection and Use of incentives facing each of these states, or a
Intelligence thorough discussion of the many other nontechni-
Much of the information available to the U.S. cal factors that would influence their ability to
Government pertaining to proliferation is classi- pursue weapons of mass destruction.
fied. Acting on classified information+. g., by The bottlenecks or ‘chokepoints’ identified in
exposing a state’s actions to international atten-
the background paper—steps that are particularly
tion, or by shutting down a covert supplier
time-consuming or difficult for proliferants to
network-risks compromising the sources and
master without outside assistance-might be
methods by which the information was originally
exploited to control proliferation. Conversely,
collected, possibly shutting off access to such
steps that are relatively easy, or that make use of
information in the future. Therefore, tensions
widely available know-how and equipment, make
exist between collecting intelligence information
and making effective use of it. poor candidates for control efforts. It is important
A related problem is that to the extent that to understand the extent to which “dual-use”
relevant information must remain classified, pub- technologies or products, which also have legiti-
lic debate and discussion—and to some extent, mate civil applications, are involved in the
international negotiations and actions-will be development of weapons of mass destruction,
conducted on the basis of incomplete informa- since both the feasibility of controlling dual-use
tion. items and the implications of doing so depend on
the extent of their other applications.
TECHNICAL BASIS FOR MONITORING AND Monitoring the proliferation of weapons of
CONTROLLING PROLIFERATION mass destruction, or conversely monitoring com-
The various weapons of mass destruction pliance with nonproliferation agreements, de-
addressed in this report are based on very pends on detecting and identifying various indi-
different technical principles and require distinct cators or signatures associated with the develop-
sets of industrial capabilities. A separate back- ment, production, deployment, or use of weapons
ground paper explores the technical pathways by of mass destruction. Unilateral intelligence col-
which states might acquire nuclear weapons, lection efforts can seek to exploit these signatures
chemical weapons, biological weapons, and de- with the use of remote or covertly placed instru-
livery systems. Those analyses are intended to ments; multilateral verification regimes—
identify opportunities for monitoring and, if typically operating within the framework of a
possible, controlling proliferation, as well as to negotiated treaty-can make provision for states
note the potential implications of certain old and to voluntarily open their facilities to cooperative
23 TJM u.S. State Dep~ent’S list of states supportingttzrori!nq for example, is often WCUSd Of refkthg pditkd tdts, rabr - firm
intelligence analysis.
— .
24 ~ tie .s~at%ic ~ ~on~~l ~r~=~ ~~=n the United stat~ ~d the Soviet Union, e~h side agr~ not to impede the otk side’s
‘‘national technical means of verii7cation, “ in effect legitimizing the collection of intelligence pertinent to the treaty.
. -. .
deed, the possibility of black-market sales of surplus of some 70 tomes of safeguarded, sepa-
weapon-usable materials may represent one of the rated reactor-grade plutonium-the type pro-
greatest proliferation dangers now being faced. duced by commercial nuclear reactors in normal
Even the covert acquisition of low-enriched operation-will likely continue to grow through
uranium, which can fuel nuclear reactors but is the 1990s by more than 10 tonnes per year.
not directly usable for nuclear weapons, could be Reactor-grade plutonium is more radioactive and
advantageous to a proliferant by enhancing the more difficult to handle than weapon-grade
capacity of its isotope separation plants. plutonium, which is produced specifically for use
This ominous prospect notwithstanding, nu- in nuclear weapons, but it can still be used to
clear materials suitable for weapon purposes make a crude nuclear weapon of significant
have to date been extremely difficult to obtain (though probably less predictable) yield. Never-
from countries that already possess them. theless, the states that have sought nuclear
There is no reliable evidence that any militarily weapons have gone to great lengths to produce
significant quantities of nuclear weapon material weapon-grade materials--either highly enriched
have been smuggled out of the former Soviet uranium or weapon-grade plutonium-rather than
Union. The vast majority of nuclear material in reactor-grade plutonium. (Note that some types of
nonnuclear weapon states is safeguarded by a nuclear power reactors, including ones in India,
comprehensive system of material accountancy South Korea, and North Korea, can produce either
and control administered by the International reactor-grade or weapon-grade plutonium, de-
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). These safe- pending on how they are operated.)
guards are not perfect, but they provide high
levels of confidence that significant quantities of OTHER TECHNICAL BARRIERS
nuclear material have not been diverted from Unlike chemical and biological weapons, whose
safeguarded nuclear reactors. Diversion would be lethality is roughly proportional to the amount of
more difficult to detect from facilities such as fuel agent dispersed, nuclear weapons will not pro-
fabrication plants, uranium enrichment plants, duce any yield at all unless certain conditions are
and plutonium reprocessing facilities that process met: a minimum ‘‘critical mass’ of nuclear
large quantities of nuclear material in bulk form, materials must be present, and that material must
as opposed to handling it only in discrete units be brought together with sufficient speed and
such as fuel rods or reactor cores. At present, precision for a nuclear chain reaction to take
however, there are no large facilities of this type place. A proliferant must master a series of
under comprehensive IAEA safeguards in coun- technical hurdles in order to produce even a single
tries of particular proliferation concern.25 At least working weapon.
in the short run, the diversion of safeguarded Nuclear weapons are so destructive that they
materials poses less of a threat to the nonprolif- place few requirements on the accuracy of deliv-
eration regime than the black-market pur- ery systems for any but the most protected targets.
chase or covert indigenous production of nu- Most proliferants would likely be able to design
clear materials. first-generation nuclear weapons that were small
Under current European and Japanese plans for and light enough to be carried by Scud-class
reprocessing and limited reuse of plutonium from missiles or small aircraft. Given additional tech-
commercial reactor fuel, the current worldwide nical refinement, they might be able to reduce
u Br~l has a m~i~-sized fiel fabrication facility under IAEA safeguards, and South African enrichment facilities are CO- Waler
safeguards with South Africa’s announced destruction of itsnuclar weapons and its accession to the IWPT Neither state is considered an active
proliferation threat at present.
Chapter 1-Introduction and Summary 35
,
warhead weights to the point where the 500 kg
(l,100 pound) delivery threshold originally estab-
lished by the Missile Technology Control Regime
no longer provides a reliable barrier to nuclear-
capable ballistic or cruise missiles.26
Although nuclear weapons were first devel-
oped 50 years ago and the basic mechanisms are H
26 B~~~&.fig is fmu~, tie ~ssile ~c~ology con~l Regime IIOW covers XI&NflCS capable of delivering chfical ~d biological WtXipOllS
as well aa those that could be used (o deliver nuclear weapons. Consequently, the payload threshold of 500 kg has been removed.
27 me excqtion t. ~s s~tement would ~ unsafe~d~ facilities dedi~ted to military purposes unrelated to nuclear weapons, suchm
naval nuclear propulsion. Such uses are not prohibited by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. They fall outside IAEA jurisdiction however,
since IAEA safeguards pertain only to peaceful-e. g., nonmilitary-applications of nuclear power. See Ben Sanders and John SimpsoQ
Nucfear Submarines and Non-Proliferation: Cause for Concern, PPNN Occasional Paper Two (Southampton England: Centre for
International Policy Studies, University of Southampton for the Prograrnme for Promoting Nuclear Non-Proliferation 1988).
—
tion, ease of producing highly enriched uranium, literature and follow from standard chemical
and potential availability of equipment from the engineering principles. Unlike nuclear prolifera-
former Soviet Union. Modem, state-of-the-art tion, where the mere existence of an unsafe-
centrifuges could lead to even smaller, more guarded nuclear facility in an NPT member state
efficient, and relatively inexpensive facilities that is often sufficient evidence of intent to produce
would be most difficult to detect remotely. weapons, many legitimate chemical facilities
In the longer run, laser isotope separation could have the ability to produce chemical agent.
techniques and aerodynamic separation may Intent cannot be inferred directly from capa-
have serious proliferation potential as means of bility.
producing highly enriched uranium for nuclear
weapons. Openly pursued by more than a dozen AGENT AND WEAPON PRODUCTION
non-nuclear-weapon states, laser enrichment tech- Certain chemical agents such as mustard gas
nologies use precisely tuned laser beams to are very simple to produce. Synthesis of nerve
selectively energize the uranium-235 isotope agents, however, includes some difficult process
most useful for nuclear weapons and separate it steps involving highly corrosive or reactive ma-
from the more common uranium-238 isotope. terials. A sophisticated production facility to
Laser facilities would be small in size and could make militarily significant quantities of one class
enrich uranium to high levels in only a few stages. of nerve agents might cost between $30 and $50
They could therefore prove to be difficult to million, although dispensing with modem waste-
detect and control if successfully developed as handling facilities might cut the cost in half. Some
part of a clandestine program. Nevertheless, of the equipment needed may have distinctive
considerable development work remains to be features, such as corrosion-resistant reactors and
done before this method can be made viable or pipes and special ventilation and waste-handling
can compete with existing enrichment technolo- equipment, but these can be dispensed with by
gies. Even for the advanced industrialized coun- relaxing worker safety and environmental stand-
tries, constructing operational facilities will re- ards and by replacing hardware as it corrodes.
main very difficult. Some aerodynamic techniques— Moreover, production is easier if a proliferant
which use carefully designed gas flows to sepa- country is willing to cut comers on shelf-life,
rate the lighter uranium-235 from the heavier seeking only to produce low-quality agent for
uranium-238-require fairly sophisticated tech- immediate use.
nology to manufacture large numbers of precision Chemical-warfare agents can be produced
small-scale components, but they do not other- through a wide variety of alternative routes, but
wise pose technical challenges beyond those of relatively few routes are well suited for large-
other enrichment approaches. scale production. Just because the United States
used a particular production pathway in the past,
however, does not mean that proliferant countries
B Chemical Weapons would necessarily choose the same process.
The technology used to produce chemical In general, commercial pesticide plants lack
weapons is much harder to identify unambiguously the precursor chemicals (materials from which
as weapons-related than is that for nuclear materi- chemical agents are synthesized), equipment,
als production technology, and relevant know- facilities, and safety procedures required for
how is much more widely available. Although nerve-agent production. Nevertheless, multipur-
production techniques for major chemical weapon pose chemical plants capable of manufacturing
agents involve some specialized process steps, organo-phosphorus pesticides or flame retardants
detailed examples can be found in the open could be converted in a matter of weeks or months
—
Z8 Ni@ogen musmds have some use in cancer chemotherapy, andphosgene and hydrogen cyanide haveindustiid applications.
38 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
ical agent exposure (including that due to acci- duce large numbers of casualties, although it is
dental leaks) in plant workers or in plants and much more difficult to develop munitions that
animals living in the vicinity of a suspect facility. have a predictable or controllable military effect.
Nevertheless, the utility of specific signatures
depends on how a given weapon program oper- AGENT AND WEAPON PRODUCTION
ates, including the choice of production process The global biotechnology industry is information-
and the extent of investment in emission-control intensive rather than capital-intensive. Much of
technologies. Detection capabilities that are deci- the data relevant to producing biological agents is
sive under laboratory conditions may be rather widely available in the published literature and
inconclusive in the field—particularly if the virtually impossible for industrialized states to
proliferant has been producing related legitimate withhold from potential proliferants. A wide-
chemicals (e.g., organophosphorus pesticides) in spread support infrastructure of equipment manu-
the same facility and is willing to expend time, facturers has also arisen to serve the industry.
effort, and resources to mask, obscure, or other- Therefore, producing biological agents would
wise explain away chemical agent production be relatively easy and inexpensive for any
activities. Testing of chemical agents and training nation that has a modestly sophisticated phar-
troops in their use might be masked by experi- maceutical industry. Moreover, nearly all the
ments with or training for the use of smoke equipment needed for large-scale production of
screens. A robust inspection regime must there- pathogens and toxins is dual-use and widely
fore comprise an interlocking web of inspections, available on the international market.
declarations, notifications, and data fusion and
analysis, all of which a cheater must defeat in
order to conceal his violations. Focusing monitor-
ing efforts at a single point--even one thought to
be a crucial chokepoint--would allow the cheater
to focus his efforts on defeating them.
Keeping a production program covert forces
other tradeoffs. Some of the simplest production
pathways might have to be avoided since they use
known precursors or involve known production
processes. Purchasing equipment from multiple
suppliers to avoid detection, or jury-rigging
facilities from used equipment, might increase
hazards to the workforce and nearby populations.
I Biological Weapons
Biological-warfare agents are easier to produce
than either nuclear materials or chemical-warfare
agents because they require a much smaller and
cheaper industrial infrastructure and because the
necessary technology and know-how is widely United Nations inspectors assessing the biological
available. Moreover, it would not be difficult to weapon potential of Iraqi fermenters and other
spread biological agents indiscrimin ately to pro- bioprocess equipment.
Chapter 1-Introduction and Summary 39
One technical hurdle to the production of kilograms can be militarily significant. Since
biological weapons is ensuring adequate contain- large amounts of agent can be grown up from a
ment and worker safety during agent production freeze-dried seed culture in a period of days to
and weapons handling, although the difficulty of weeks, large stockpiles of agent are not required,
doing so depends on the level of safety and although some stocks of the munitions to be filled
environmental standards. A government that with these agents would be.
placed little value on the safety of plant workers There are no signatures that distinguish clearly
or the civilian population might well take mini- between the development of offensive biological
mal precautions, so that a biological weapon agents and work on defensive vaccines, since
production facility would not necessarily be both activities require the same basic know-how
equipped with sophisticated high-containment and laboratory techniques at the R&D stage.
measures. Another challenge is ‘‘weaponizing’ Moreover, almost all the equipment involved in
the agents for successful delivery. Since micro- biological and toxin weapon development and
bial pathogens and toxins are susceptible to production is dual-use and hence will not typi-
environmental stresses such as heat, oxidation, cally indicate weapons activity. Indeed, the
and dessication, to be effective they must main- capacity to engage in illegal military activities
tain their potency during weapon storage, deliv- is inherent in certain nominally civilian facili-
ery, and dissemination. ties. Some legitimate biological facilities can also
A supply of standard biological agents for convert rapidly to the production of biological
covert sabotage or attacks against broad-area warfare agents, depending on the degree of
targets would be relatively easy to produce and sophistication of the plant and on the required
disseminate using commercially available equip- scale of production, level of worker safety, and
ment, such as agricultural sprayers. In contrast, environmental containment. At the same time,
the integration of biological agents into precise, however, legitimate applications of biological or
reliable, and effective delivery systems such as toxin agents (e.g., vaccine production and the
missile warheads and cluster bombs poses com- clinical use of toxins) are relatively few at
plex engineering problems. Nevertheless, the present. With the exception of a few vaccine
United States had overcome these problems by production plants, such activities are largely
the 1960s and had stockpiled biological warfare confined to sophisticated biomedical facilities not
agents. normally found in developing countries, and
these facilities generally do not engage in produc-
MONITORING BIOLOGICAL WEAPON tion except on a small scale. Moreover, given that
PRODUCTION the global biotechnology industry is still in its
Detection and monitoring of biological and infancy, the number of legitimate activities--
toxin agent production is a particularly chal- from which the illegitimate ones would have to be
lenging task. Even use of biological weapons distinguished-is still relatively small.
could in some cases be difficult to verify un- Sensitive analytical techniques such as poly-
ambiguously, since outbreaks of disease also take merase chain reaction (PCR) analysis or use of
place naturally. Thanks to advances in biotech- monoclinal antibodies can identify trace quanti-
nology, including improved fermentation equip- ties of biological agents and might be able to do
ment as well as genetic engineering techniques, so even after the termination of illicit activities.
biological and toxin agents could be made in However, the existence of such sensitive labora-
facilities that are much smaller and less conspicu- tory techniques does not necessarily translate into
ous than in the past. Moreover, the extreme a negotiated verification regime that might be
potency of such agents means that as little as a few instituted to monitor compliance with the Biolog-
40 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
ical Weapons Convention. Other factors that must radiation). Biological agents might also be genet-
be assessed in establishing such a regime include ically modified to make them more difficult to
the likelihood of detecting clandestine production detect by immunological means and insusceptible
sites, the ability to distinguish prohibited offen- to standard vaccines or antibiotics. At the same
sive activities from permitted defensive efforts, time, genetic engineering techniques could be
and the risk of divulging sensitive national- used to develop and produce protective vaccines
security or proprietary information during inspec- more safely and rapidly.
tions of U.S. facilities.29 Cloning toxin genes in bacteria makes it
Because of the difficulty of detecting clandes- possible to produce formerly rare toxins in
tine biological and toxin weapon development kilogram quantities. Moreover, molecular engi-
and production, effective tracking of such pro- neering techniques could lead to the development
grams will require integrating data from many of more stable toxins. Even so, for the foreseeable
sources, with a particular emphasis on human future, toxin-warfare agents are unlikely to pro-
intelligence (agents, defectors, and whistle- vide dramatic military advantages over existing
blowers). Some weaponization signatures (stor- chemical weapons. It is possible that bioregula-
age of bulk agents, preparation of aerosol dispens- tors and other natural body chemicals (or syn-
ers, field testing, etc.) would probably be easier to thetic analogues thereof) might be developed into
detect than production signatures, but many such powerful incapacitants, but means of delivering
signatures could be concealed or masked by such agents in a militarily effective manner would
legitimate activities such as biopesticide R&D or
first have to be devised. Moreover, if warning o f
use. Production and storage of components for
their use were provided, chemical weapon protec-
BW munitions might also be masked by activities
tive gear would blunt their impact.
associated with conventional weapons, such as
production of high explosives, bomb casings, or
artillery shells. Since excessive secrecy might 1 Delivery Systems
itself be indicative of offensive intent, greater Although military delivery systems such as
transparency would tend to build confidence in a ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and combat
country’s lack of offensive intentions. aircraft are not essential to deliver weapons of
mass destruction, they can do so more rapidly,
IMPLICATIONS OF NEW TECHNOLOGY more controllably, and more reliably than rudi-
Genetic engineering is unlikely to result in mentary means such as suitcases, car bombs, or
‘‘supergerms" significantly more lethal than the civilian ships or planes. Controlling the spread of
wide variety of potentially effective biological advanced delivery systems by no means would
agents that already exist, nor is it likely to eliminate the dangers posed by weapons of mass
eliminate the fundamental uncertainties associ- destruction, particularly in terrorist applications.
ated with the use of microbial pathogens in However, limiting the availability of these deliv-
warfare. However, gene-splicing techniques might ery systems would make it harder for states to use
facilitate weaponization by rendering microor- weapons of mass destruction for military pur-
ganisms more stable during dissemination (e.g., poses, particularly against well-defended, fore-
resistant to high temperatures and ultraviolet warned adversaries.
29 mmited stiws m akidy determined that inspection procedures under the Chernieal Weapons Convention which allow the inspected
party to negotiate the level of access to be provided to international inspectom, are sufilcient to proteet national-security information and trade
secrets. However, it is not necessarily the case that the same inspection procedures would be suitable for the Biologicsl Weapons Convention
should a formal verifkation regime be instituted.
Chapter 1-Introduction and Summary 41
Unlike nuclear, chemical, or biological weap- for acquiring ballistic missiles-prestige, diversi-
ons themselves, which are not traded openly due fying one’s forces, their psychological value as
to treaty constraints or international norms, deliv- terror weapons, lack of trained pilots, and tech-
ery systems such as aircraft and short-range nology transfer and export opportunities-will
antiship cruise missiles are widely available on continue to make missile technology very attrac-
international arms markets, Since the late 1980s, tive for several countries of proliferation concern.
the United States and other Western industrial-
ized countries have had some success at delegit- BARRIERS TO MISSILE AND AIRCRAFT
imizing the sale of longer range ballistic and PROLIFERATION
cruise missiles by creating the Missile Technol- The spread of ballistic missiles around the
ogy Control Regime (MTCR), the participants in world was greatly facilitated by the export in the
which refrain from selling ballistic or cruise 1970s and 1980s of Scud-B missiles from the
missiles with ranges over 300 kilometers, or with former Soviet Union. With an increasing number
any range if the seller has reason to believe that of countries abiding by the MTCR, the number of
they may be used to carry weapons of mass potential missile suppliers has declined dramati-
destruction. However, missiles with ranges up to cally. Of the principal missile exporters, only
300 km-and to a lesser extent, up to 600-1,000 North Korea has not agreed to comply. However,
km-are already deployed in many Third-World Ukraine poses future export concerns, since it
countries. Combat aircraft are possessed by al- contains much of the former Soviet missile
most all countries of proliferation concern. Cruise production infrastructure, yet has not agreed to
missiles or other unmanned aerial vehicles with comply with the MTCR. Moreover, additional
ranges much over 100 km are not yet widespread countries have learned to copy, modify, extend
outside the acknowledged nuclear weapon states, the range of, and produce their own missiles, and
but large numbers of cruise missiles, including a small number have developed long-range sys-
antiship missiles, are available at lesser ranges. tems-often in conjunction with space-launch
In terms of payloads that can be carried to programs and foreign technical assistance. Even
specified ranges, the combat aircraft of virtually so, MTCR constraints can slow the acquisition by
all countries of proliferation concern far surpass developing countries of technologies associated
their missile capabilities. However, aircraft and with more advanced missiles-those having ranges
missiles have different relative strengths—
particularly in their ability to penetrate defenses— s
and the two systems are not fully interchangeable.
Piloted aircraft have significant advantages over
other delivery systems in terms of range, payload,
accuracy, damage-assessment capability, and dis-
persal of chemical or biological agents. They can
be used many times, usually even in the presence
of significant air defenses. Missiles, however, are
harder to defend against, and they offer distinct
advantages for a country wishing to deliver a
single nuclear weapon to a heavily defended area.
Since missiles are not restricted to operating from
airfields, they are also easier to hide from United Nations inspector measuring an Iraqi Al-
opposing forces. The wide range of motivations Husayn (modified Scud) missile in Baghdad.
42 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
in excess of 1,000 km or guidance errors of less Glonass system, or commercial equivalents. Inex-
than roughly 0.3 percent of their range. pensive, commercially available GPS receivers
Given the complex set of technologies and are becoming available to provide unprecedented
expertise used in advanced aircraft, especially navigational accuracy anywhere in the world.
high-performance jet engines, it remains virtually Although GPS receivers would have only limited
impossible for developing countries to acquire utility to emerging missile powers for ballistic
these systems without assistance. However, no missile guidance, they could be used to reduce
internationally binding restrictions limit trade in uncertainty in the launch location of mobile
combat aircraft, and such arms transfers continue missiles.
to be used as an instrument of foreign policy.
Moreover, overcapacity in Western defense in- MONITORING DELlVERY VEHICLES
dustries, and the economic difficulties facing Although individual missiles can be very
newly independent Soviet republics and Eastern difficult to detect, a program to develop ballistic
European states, provide great incentive to de- missiles is much more visible. Test firing and
velop arms export markets. Therefore, states can launching ballistic missiles can be readily seen.
and probably will continue to acquire high- Development of intermediate and long-range
performance aircraft easily without having to ballistic missiles requires extensive flight testing,
build them. Moreover, other options short of making it particularly noticeable. Although states
buying aircraft or building them from scratch are pursuing both military and civil space technology
available to states wishing to acquire or modify may wish to hide their military programs, civilian
combat aircraft, such as engaging in licensed space-launch programs are usually considered a
production. 30 source of national prestige and proudly adver-
If they have sufficient payload and range-and tised.
if they can be procured despite export controls— Even a purely civilian space-launch program
commercially available unmanned aerial vehicles provides technology and know-how useful for
can be adapted to deliver weapons of mass ballistic missiles. The most important aspects of
destruction without much difficulty. Developing a missile capability for weapons of mass destruc-
cruise missiles requires greater technical capabil- tion—range and payload-can usually be in-
ity. Even so, technologies for guidance, propul- ferred from a civil program. (A civil space-launch
sion, and airframes are becoming increasingly booster does not need to have high accuracy, but
accessible, particularly with the spread of li- neither does a missile carrying weapons of mass
censed aircraft production arrangements to many destruction for use against populations.) On the
parts of the world. The most difficult technical other hand, certain attributes desired for military
challenges to developing cruise missiles— applications, such as reliable reentry vehicles,
propulsion and guidance--do not pose much of a mobility, and ease of operation in the field,
hurdle today. The highest performance engines suggest distinct technical approaches for military
are not required for simple cruise missiles, and and civil applications. Although solid-fueled
many sources are available for suitable engines. boosters are in some ways more difficult to
Guidance requirements can be met by satellite develop and build than liquid-fueled boosters,
navigation services such as the U.S. Global they are easier to use in mobile and time-urgent
Positioning System (GPS), possibly the Russian applications. Liquid-fueled boosters were the first
30 me ~outti “~ou~ ~~te~ ~o~d tie world ~ve ~en to develop defe~e ~dustri~, inclutig aircraft industries, ~ diSCUSSd h U.S.
Congress, OffIce of ‘Ikchnology Assessment, Global Anns Trude, OTA-ISC-460 (T%.shingtou DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, June
1991).
Chapter 1--Introduction and Summary 43
used in military applications and are still more detect. Several types of unmanned aerial vehicles
common. (The seemingly ubiquitous Scud mis- are being developed and marketed for civil
sile and its modifications, such as were launched purposes, and without inspection rights it will be
by Iraq against targets in Israel and Saudi Arabia, difficult to discern whether such vehicles have
are liquid-fueled.) been converted to military purposes. Therefore,
Since combat aircraft are widely accepted as monitoring of delivery systems capable of
integral to the military forces even of developing carrying weapons of mass destruction will
countries, there is no reason to hide their exis- continue to be an uncertain exercise, having
tence. Individual planes, however, can be hidden. most success with missiles and highly capable
Moreover, modifications made to aircraft to carry aircraft. Nevertheless, the risk posed by other
weapons of mass destruction, or training given to
delivery systems cannot be dismissed. The full
pilots for their delivery, might be difficult to
range of delivery technology must be taken
detect without intrusive inspections.
into account when evaluating a country’s
Of the three delivery systems, cruise missile
overall proliferation capabilities and behavior.
development and testing will be the hardest to
—— —-
Assessing
the
Risks 2
11
A
weapons kill and maim, but those commonly referred
to as “weapons of mass destruction ’’-nuclear, chemi-
cal, and biological-an do so on an especially large
scale. What is more, many of these weapons can cause
not just instant death or mutilation, but lingering disease and
suffering. This chapter begins with a review of the basic
characteristics of the devices of mass destruction. It also
identities various ways these weapons might be delivered. The
next section of the chapter then compares the destructive effects
and possible military uses of these weapons. This overview of the
weapons, their effects, and their uses serves two purposes. First,
it illustrates why the weapons have been singled out for particular
opprobrium and special efforts at control. Second, it indicates
why states (and sometimes nonstate organizations) might come
to believe that the weapons would be useful additions to their
c
arsenals. :@
The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is both a
general and a particular problem. In the long term, dealing with
the problem will require strengthening international norms
against the weapons and fostering a political order that makes
them unattractive. In the nearer term, however, proliferation
problems are particular: the weapons are spreading to specific
nations that have decided, for one reason or another, that the
existing international norms against further proliferation should
not apply to them. The third part of this chapter identifies states
suspected of trying to acquire one or more types of weapon of
mass destruction. This discussion leads to the conclusion that the
immediate proliferation threats, as now understood, are serious
but still limited in scope. Many more nations are economically
and technically capable of building weapons of mass destruction
than are actually trying to do so. All this is not to suggest
45
46 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
complacency about the dangers of proliferation: Table 2-1 surveys the destructive agents dis-
rather, it suggests that national and international cussed in this report. Table 2-2 identifies factors
nonproliferation policies actually have some pros- that can affect just how lethal these agents may be
pect of containing the problem. when used. To do their deadly work, these agents
The fourth part of ch. 2 discusses what differ- of mass destruction have to be incorporated into
ences it may make to the international community weapons (e.g., an aerial bomb, a ballistic missile
in general, and to the United States in particular, warhead, an artillery shell, or a even a suitcase)
when weapons of mass destruction spread. This and then delivered. Table 2-3 lists the kinds of
analysis underscores the strong interest in con- weapons that have been, or in principle could be,
taining the threat of proliferation that the United designed for nuclear explosives or chemical or
States shares with all civilized nations. biological agents. During the Cold War, the
With ch. 1 having reviewed trends in the United States and the Soviet Union developed
international arena that nonproliferation policies every type of nuclear weapon listed in the
must take into account, the final section of this chart. 4
chapter calls special attention to the multifari- The easiest course for nuclear proliferant
ous problems posed by the breakup of Soviet nations would be to try to build aerial bombs first,
Union. because these need not be as light or compact as
other weapon types. The bomb dropped on
Hiroshima weighed about 4,400 kg (9,700 lb), but
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION proliferants should be able to do much better than
“Mass destruction” is a relative term. Allied that on their first try.5 The countries currently
fire bomb attacks on Dresden during World War suspected of nuclear weapon ambitions also have
II killed between 130,000 and 200,000 people ballistic missile programs; even if they succeed in
with 1,400 aircraft sorties over 2 days. 1 A single developing heavier aerial bombs sooner, they
atomic bomb killed about 68,000 people and seem likely to pursue missile-capable nuclear
injured another 76,000 in Hiroshima. 2 A 1- explosives in the longer run. Iraq appears to have
megaton hydrogen bomb exploding over Detroit been trying to make its first nuclear weapon light
might kill 470,000 and injure 630,000 more.3 enough for a missile warhead.
Thus, a single weapon of mass destruction can do Chemical weapons were frost used extensively
damage equivalent to that of hundreds or thou- in World War I. Initially, gaseous agents, such as
sands of ‘conventional’ high explosive or incen- chlorine and phosgene, were released from ground-
diary weapons. This report addresses the spread based tanks as airborne clouds; later, liquids such
of three broad types of weapon meeting that as sulfur mustard were delivered in artillery
criterion of killing more with less: nuclear, shells. Aerial bombing and spraying methods
biological, and chemical. How do these weapons appeared between the two World Wars. During
injure and kill? the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet
1 Science Applications Inc.,EvaZuatims of CoZZareraJ Damuge (La Jolla, CA: SAIC, Nov. 15, 1976), p. 131,
2
Samuel Glasstone and Philip J. DoIan, (eds.), The Eflects of NucZear Weapons, Third Ed”tion (Washington DC: U.S. Department of
Defense and U.S. Department of Energy, 1977), p. 544.
3
U.S. Congress, Offke of ‘Rdmology Assessment The Eflects ofNuclear War (Washington, DC: U.S. Gov ernment Printing office, 1979),
p. 37.
4
In the aftermath of the Cold War (and even before), both superpowers begsn to withdraw from service most of their so-called tactical
nuclear weapons.
S The United States and the Soviet Union had already deployed much lighter weapons by the 1950s.
— .
Nuclear:
fission and fusion Hiroshima fission bomb= 12.5 Blast (overpressure) Bleeding and rupture; violent
kt (1 kt = 1 , 0 0 0 t o n s T N T ) ; displacement; blows or crush-
fusion bomb, e.g., largest U.S. Thermal radiation ing by debris
test = 17 Mt (1 Mt = 1,000,000
tons TNT) Nuclear radiation (immediate) flash burns, blinding, burning
or suffocation from building fires
Nuclear radiation (delayed
effects and fallout effects) Vomiting, diarrhea fever, bleed-
ing, infection, circulatory fail-
ure, respiratory failure, brain
swelling
Biological:
viruses Venezuelan equine encephalitis Inhaled or ingested infectious A variety of debilitating or poten-
diseases tially fatal illnesses
Toxins: 2 Botulin, ricin, animal venoms Inhaled or ingested poisons A variety of toxic effects, often
fatal
Chemical:
Blistering (Vesicants) Mustard, Iewisite Skin and tissue destruction on Skin blistering, blindness, po-
contact or inhalation tentially fatal lung damage
Choking Chlorine, Phosgene, PFIB Lung damage on inhalation Fluid build-up leading to fatal
choking
Blood Cyanogen chloride, hydrogen Blocking of blood oxygen on Anoxia (severe oxygen starva-
cyanide inhalation tion of body tissues)
Nerve Tabun (GA), Sarin (GB), Soman Nervous system disruption on Convulsions, paralysis leading
(GD), GF, VX contact or inhalation to death
1 Somechemical and biological agents maycauseirritation, illness, or behavior changes, butmaynotnormally be fatal; weapons using th=eagents
may incapacitate people for hours, days or weeks, but cannot be accurately said to inflict mass destruction. Other agents can destroy livestock
or crops, having great potential for economic warfare but (except for the possibility of causing mass starvation) not leading immediately to
widespread human injury.
2 Toxins are nonliving, ~ionous ~hemica~, first produ~d in biological proc~ses. k w= therefore r~onable to cxmsider them to& biological
weapons, and they are covered in the international treaty banning biological weapons. However, as toxic chemical (nonliving) substances, they
are also categorized as “chemical’ ’weapon agents-andthey are so considered in the Chemical Weapons Convention banning chemical weapons.
Delivery modes Higher altitude burst increases Aerial spraying produces wider Aerial spraying produces wider
lethal area, decreases fallout; lethal area than explosive bomb lethal area than explosive bomb
Lower altitude increases cen- or missile warhead or missile warhead
tral blast and fallout Explosive dispersion may also Persistent agents can injure or
kill agent organisms kill additional victims as they
pass through a contaminated
area
Terrain
Open, flat Increases exposure to thermal Maximizes lethal dispersion of Maximizes lethal dispersion of
and ionizing radiation agent agent
Decreases injuries from debris,
collapsing structures
Hilly Redirects blast effects Atmospheric turbulence im- Atmospheric turbulence im-
May shield from thermal and pedes even distribution and pedes even distribution and
ionizing radiation increases vertical dilution of increases vertical dilution of
agent, reducing casualties agent, reducing casualties
City Supplies material for injurious Atmospheric turbulence im- Atmospheric turbulence im-
debris pedes even distribution and pedes even distribution and
increases vertical dilution of increases vertical dilution of
Masonry may shield from blast, agent, reducing casualties agent, reducing casualties
debris, and radiation
Building collapses increase in- Buildings partially shelter from Buildings partially shelter from
juries agent agent
Weather Wind, rain patterns may either Wind may blow agent away Wind may blow agent away
increase or decrease lethal dis- from or toward targets from or toward targets
tribution of radioactive fallout Air temperature and tempera- Air temperature and tempera-
ture gradient affect dispersal ture gradient affect dispersal
Union deployed the gamut of chemical delivery the most part have been well concealed. 7 But
systems from spray tanks6 to chemical warheads apparently weapon designs have included spray-
for short-range ballistic missiles, rockets, land tanks, bombs, cluster bombs, and bomblet dis-
mines, bombs, and artillery. The Iraqi chemical pensers. 8 Like chemical weapons, biological agents
arsenal included artillery shells, bombs, and some are best dispersed as low-altitude aerosol clouds.
ballistic missile warheads. (Moreover, explosive methods of dispersion may
If any live biological weapons have been used destroy the organisms.) Ballistic missile war-
in the twentieth century, their characteristics for heads that can effectively generate aerosols are
Table 2-2--(Continued)
Factor Nuclear Biological Chemical
Weather (continued) High winds disperse farther, High winds disseminate far-
but may dilute lethal concen- ther, but may dilute Iethal con-
trations sooner centrations sooner
Rains may clear air, wash away Rains may dear air, wash
deposited agent away some types of deposited
agent
Sunlight or drying rapidly de-
stroys some agents Cold weather prevents evapo-
ration, reducing concentrations
in air but lengthening period of
ground contamination
Defensive measures Shelters offer varying degrees Immunization possible if agents Antidotes for some agents can
of protection outside central known in advance, but mas- be effective if administered soon
destructive area of bomb sive exposures can overwhelm enough after exposure; limited
immunity preventive treatment also pos-
With ample preparation and
sible for nerve agents
warning, evacuation the best Depending on agent, early med-
protection ical treatment can reduce mor- Early decontamination and med-
tality rate ical treatment can reduce mor-
tality
With adequate detection and
warning, special masks and With adequate detection and
clothing or buildings or vehi- warning, special masks and
cles with filtered, positive inter- clothing or sealed buildings or
nal air pressure can protect vehicles with filtered, positive
effectively internal air pressure can pro-
tect effectively
Surfaces can be decontami-
nated Surfaces can be decontami-
nated
With ample preparation and
warning, evacuation the best With ample preparation and
protection warning, evacuation the best
protection
SOURCE: Office of Technology Assessment, 1993.
technically challenging to design, although the The biological agents usually considered for
United States had done so by the 1960s. Long- warfare have been infectious (multiplying within
term storage of missile or artillery warheads filled the infected person) but not contagious (spreading
with live or freeze-dried biological or toxin agent from one person to another). A nation contemplat-
is difficult (except for anthrax spores); even if ing the military use of contagious agents would
refrigerated, most of the organisms have a limited have to consider the following problems:
lifetime. Small, unmanned aerial vehicles carry- ● the spread of the disease might be so slow as
ing spray tanks might become an appealing to dilute the military impact;
option for third-world countries seeking inexpen- ● there would be a risk that the disease would
sive weapons of mass destruction.9
spread back to the attacker; thorough vacci-
9
See W. Seth Carus, “ ‘The Poor Man’s Atomic Bomb?’ Biological Weapons in the Middle East” (Washington DC: The Washington
Institute for Near East Policy, Policy Papers No. 23, 1991), p. 11.
50 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
Table 2-3--Weaponizing Agents of Mass Destruction: Actual and Possible Methods of Delivery
Actual Cases d
Theoretical possibility (poss.)
nation of one’s own troops and population delivery. This section introduces the primary
would be very difficult; and kinds of vehicles by which these weapons might
. many nations not at war with, and perhaps be delivered. Following sections address possible
even allied to, the attacker might also suffer uses. As table 2-2 illustrates, properly configured
from the epidemic, exposing the attacker to weapons of mass destruction can be delivered by
unnecessary sanctions or retaliation. many kinds of military delivery systems, and at
A clandestine terrorist might not care about these ranges from a few to thousands of kilometers.
problems. A nation with an advanced biotechnol- Depending on the scenario, such weapons can be
ogy program might try to create a contagious highly threatening even without sophisticated
organism that was both difficult to treat and military delivery systems. A nuclear device
susceptible to a vaccine uniquely available to the planted by terrorists or commando squads, or
nation’s own population. These conditions would delivered by disguised cargo ships, aircraft, or
be difficult to achieve, as well as to implement even small pleasure craft, could kill just as many
covertly on a nationwide scale, but cannot be people as one delivered by an ICBM; a given
dismissed as impossible (see the OTA back- quantity of lethal microorganisms effectively
ground paper on technologies underlying weap- spread by human agents might kill even more than
ons of mass destruction, in press).
one delivered by missile.
Thus, the absence of advanced delivery sys-
9 Means of delivery tems does not mean that states or sub-national
How nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons
groups could not use weapons of mass destruc-
are incorporated into weapons will depend both
tion. Even though few proliferant states (with the
on their purposes and on the available means of
Chapter 2–Assessing the Risks 51
possible exceptions of India, Israel, and China)10 may fly at speeds of 1,000 to 2,000 km/hr or
have---or are likely soon to acquire-military more.
delivery systems capable of directly reaching the Ballistic missiles carry both fuel and oxidizer
United States, unconventional delivery methods and (except for very short-range systems) fly part
could still put U.S. territory at risk. U.S. allies of their trajectory outside the atmosphere. They
abroad or deployed U.S. forces are already usually reenter the atmosphere hypersonically, at
threatened by shorter range systems. In the cases speeds of thousands of km/hr, and carry smaller
of rival states bordering one another, nuclear, payloads than aircraft. They are likely to delivery
biological, or chemical weapons mounted on weapons less accurately than aircraft, but high
even very short-range means of delivery can pose accuracy is unnecessary for delivering nuclear
a major threat. weapons on many kinds of missions.
Nevertheless, states possessing considerable Cruise missiles or other unpiloted aerial vehi-
numbers of advanced longer range systems equipped cles share some characteristics with piloted air-
with these weapons can more reliably threaten craft and some with ballistic missiles. Like
more nations with higher levels of destruction airplanes, these missiles fly nonballistic trajecto-
than those only possessing short-range systems. ries within the atmosphere and are powered
Every state currently of proliferation concern has throughout their flight. (Ballistic missiles, in
combat aircraft in principle capable of delivering contrast, are powered only at the beginning o f
weapons of mass destruction; most of those states their trajectories, coasting to their targets once
also own or have programs to acquire ballistic their final rocket motor stages burn out.) Unpi-
missiles. loted aerial vehicles range from simple, un-
Partly for these reasons, the discussions of manned drone aircraft used for target practice, to
delivery systems in this OTA report and its short- and medium-range (10 to 100 km) antiship
associated background paper deal primarily with missiles widely available around the world, to
11
advanced systems. Another reason is a more highly sophisticated, longer range, autonomously
practical one: because advanced systems de- guided missiles such as the U.S. Tomahawk. Like
signed to penetrate enemy defenses are in many ballistic missiles, they do not require as extensive
cases technically more demanding, there is greater a training and support infrastructure as do piloted
hope (than there is for short-range systems) of aircraft.
imposing international controls on their further Since cruise missiles can be launched from air,
proliferation. sea, and underwater as well as from land, their
The three principal types of advanced delivery own range is extended by that of their carrier
vehicle are aircraft, ballistic missile, and cruise (airplane, ship, or submarine). Like other aircraft,
missile. Aircraft (in the sense used here) are they can be shot down once detected and identi-
piloted, air-breathing (usually jet) airplanes; the fied. However, small size (and radar cross-
combat aircraft of many of the world’s air forces section), low-altitude flight, and circuitous courses
can deliver payloads of several thousand pounds can make them hard to find. Like ballistic
to distances of hundreds of kilometers (or more, missiles, they are expendable, eliminating the
if they are equipped for aerial refueling) 12; they need to risk a pilot (and avoiding the possibility
10 DW~~ nuclW.weaPn states are not considered nUCleW ‘Profimants. ‘‘ China, although a declared nuclear-weapon state, is suspected
of being a chemical and biological weapon proliferant.
11 Backgomd Pqa on technologies underlying weapons of mass deswctio~ in press.
12 conve~~ ~ago ~m~t or long-rmge bomber ~c~t (if avai~ble) cm fly ~ousands of kilometers without refhe~g.
52 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
of pilot error while forfeiting the potential for WEAPON EFFECTS COMPARED
pilot improvisation if something goes wrong).
With the worldwide availability of high-
1 Destructive Effects
precision navigation services such as that pro-
Figures 2-1 and 2-2 illustrate some rough
vided by the U.S. Global Positioning System
estimates for the effects of comparable amounts
(GPS), a simple cruise missile can in principle be
of chemical, nuclear, and biological weapons.
made more accurate than even a sophisticated
These are based on somewhat arbitrary assump-
ballistic missile. A piloted aircraft, on the other
tions, but they do give a basis for relative
hand, has abetter chance than a cruise or ballistic
comparison of the weapon types.
missile of delivering chemical or biological
weapons onto mobile military targets and of These comparisons suggest the following gener-
adjusting bombing or spraying patterns to the alizations:
● nuclear weapons remain the most massively
weather.
An analysis comparing the relative advantages destructive weapons that can be built: unlike
chemical and biological weapons, nuclear
of aircraft and ballistic missiles for nuclear
weapons also threaten massive destruction
weapon delivery concludes:
of property (civilian or military);
Ballistic missiles are of principal concern to ● in principle, biological weapons efficiently
the degree they are coupled to the delivery of delivered under the right conditions against
nuclear and, to a somewhat lesser extent, chemi- unprotected populations would, pound for
cal weapons. But advanced-strike aircraft can be
pound of weapon, exceed the killing power
effective in delivering nuclear weapons and can
of nuclear weapons; on the other hand, if
be more effective than ballistic missiles for
warning is provided, effective civil defense
delivering conventional or chemical ordnance.13
measures are considerably easier to take
On the other hand, to deliver weapons at interconti- against chemical and biological weapons
nental range, developing and building intercontinen- than against nuclear weapons;
tal ballistic missiles may be easier than acquiring ● for maximum physical effect, chemical and
long-range bombers and refueling capabili- biological weapons are more efficiently de-
ties. 14 livered by aircraft or artillery barrages than
Since biological warfare agents are, like chem- by high-speed missiles; missile attacks, how-
ical ordnance, best disseminated in an aerosol ever, may be useful as instruments of terror;
over a wide area, aircraft and cruise missiles are ● chemical weapons must be delivered in great
better for delivering them than are ballistic quantities to approach the potential lethality
missiles. In addition, it is more difficult (but not of nuclear and biological weapons; against
impossible) to develop ballistic missile warheads well-protected troops or civilians, they will
in which live biological agents can survive the be less lethal than even conventional explo-
stresses of space flight and atmospheric reentry. sives; and
13 ~nta for ~tmtio~ sec~~ md Arrns Control, Stanford University, Assessing Ballistic Missile Proliferation and Its COnPOl
(Stanford, CA: CISAC, November 1991), p. 7.
14 See ~wad ~~~ foreword to Seti Carus, Ballistic Missiles in Modern Conflict (hkw York NY: ~eger, 1~1) P. vii
Chapter 2–Assessing the Risks 53
xii 60-200
Scale & - -— — — - ——— j
10 km
3
Anthrax spores, 30 kg, O 1 mg-min/m
:....9”” ‘“’” ;.
78 k m2
..,:,,, ..,,. .<,.:”
23,000-80,000
x
xiii
..-!4
570,000-1,900,00
Figure shows the lethal areas of the agents delivered by a Scud-like missile with a maximum payload of 1,000 kg (note that the
amount of biological weapon agent assumed would weigh considerably less than this; since the lethality per unit weight is great,
the smaller amount considered here would still more than cover a large urban area). The estimates of lethal areas for chemical
and biological weapons were prepared using a model that takes account of postulated release height, wind velocity, deposition
velocity, height of temperature inversion layer, urban air currents, and residence time in air of the agent. The diagrams show
approximate outer contours of areas with sufficient concentrations of agent that 50 percent to 100 percent of the unprotected
people would receive fatal doses. Although some people within the defined area would survive, about the same number in the
outer, less lethal areas, would die; therefore, the defined areas give approximations of the total number of unprotected people who
could be expected to die in each scenario, With ideal (forlethalit y) population densities and weather, the chemical and biological
agents could kill more people than shown here; under worse conditions, they might kill many fewer. The atomic weapons (fission
and fusion) are assumed to be ah burst for optimum blast and radiation effects, producing little lethal fallout. The lethal area is
assumed to be that receiving 5 lb/in 2 of overpressure--enough to level wood or unreinforced brick houses.
SOURCE Office of Technology Assessment, 1993.
54 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
Scale ~. — - — - _ -— j
10 km
Clear, sunny day, Overcast day or
light breeze night, moderate wind Clear, calm night
Anthrax spores
c)
,.
\ /
/
140 km 2 , . ,. ,
km2
xii 130,00-460,000
la 420,000-1,400,000
xii 1,000,000-
3,000,000
Figure shows the lethal areas of single airplane-loads of chemical and biological weapons, assuming a highly efficientf line-source
delivery of the killing agents. The figure also assumes that the aircraft has a greater payload than the missile in figure 2-1, delivering
1,000 kg of sarin nerve agent or 100 kg of anthrax spores. (More anthrax would be inefficient in a city attack.) Given these two
factors, a single airplane delivering chemical or biological weapons can be considerably more lethal than a single
missile. For an anthrax attack, the diagram shows how fatalities could vary greatly under three different weather scenarios. In one
case, that of an overcast day or night with moderate wind, maximizing the lethal area would require distributing the agent in a 4.5
km by 34 km area, which would not be appropriate for most cities; therefore, the figure assumes a more rectangular distribution,
which would still generate a comparable number of casualties.
SOURCE: Office of Technology Assessment, 1993.
——..———
● because they are so dependent on weather applied tactically or strategically. From a strictly
and the degree of defensive protection, the military viewpoint, though, their utilities are not
consequences of chemical and biological equivalent because the consequences of using
weapons are much less predictable than each are different.
those of nuclear weapons; nevertheless, even
when military utility is questionable, chemi- TACTICAL USES
cal and biological weapons may terrorize The tactical uses of weapons of mass destruc-
civilian populations (and, particularly for tion may have both direct and indirect purposes.
terror uses, the attacker may be able to wait The direct purpose would be to destroy or disable
for optimal weather). specific military targets-bases, equipment, or
personnel. The indirect purpose would be to
I Military Utility compel the enemy to change his operations to
A principal-but by no means exclusive— cope with extraordinary threats. For example, the
motive for developing countries to acquire weap- threat of nuclear attack might force the dispersal
ons of mass destruction is for their potential of large troop or armor concentrations. Chemical
military utility. The symbolic, deterrent, or intim- weapon threats might require troop dispersals and
idating uses of these weapons may be dispropor- protective measures that reduce combat effective-
tionate to their actual effects on opposing military ness, while perhaps overburdening medical serv-
forces. 15 On the other hand, political inhibitions ices with injured personnel. Biological weapon
on using the weapons may render moot their threats would impose similar burdens.
purely military effectiveness. These cautions During the Cold War, the United States and the
noted, table 2-4 compares general military uses of Soviet Union each deployed thousands of ‘tacti-
the weapons (along with conventional explosive cal’ ‘ nuclear weapons (e.g., artillery, rockets,
weapons, for comparison). short-range ballistic missiles, aerial bombs). For
The nuclear age has generated special mean- the most part, these weapons would have been
ings for the terms strategic and tactical as applied aimed at military forces and installations more or
to weapons of mass destruction. The general less directly involved in battle. Their explosive
meaning of strategic military action in this yields reportedly ranged from less than 1 kiloton
context is the attempted destruction of the mili- (kt) of TNT to several hundred kt. 16 Limited use
tary infrastructure, economic base, and even the of these weapons in Europe would, at the very
population that enables the enemy nation to make least, have forced armies on both sides to alter
war. Tactical attacks, on the other hand, are those their tactics to avoid presenting large concentra-
more directly engaging the enemy’s frontline tions of troops and armor as targets. Used en
military forces, immediate reinforcements, or masse, these tactical weapons might have pro-
supply lines. As table 2-4 indicates, nuclear, duced damage to the population and the civilian
chemical, and biological weapons can each be infrastructure resembling that to be expected from
15 III some unuti cases, the uses may intend provocation, as opposed to deterrence or intimidation. The apparent intent Of kW’S use of
Scud missiles against Israel during the Gulf War was to lure Israel into military retaliation. Iraq might then have persuaded the Arab members
of the Coalition to change sides to avoid fighting on the same side as Israel. Thus, even though the Iraqi attack would probably have had little
direct military effect its political effect might have been enormous. (Iraq might have increased the chances of Israeli military action had it used
chemical warheads on its missiles; on the other hand, Iraq also had to consider the possibility that Israel would respond to such an attack with
nuclear weapons, an escalation Saddam Hussein probably wanted to avoid,)
16 See william M. &kin and RiCharci W. FiddhOUse, Nuclear Battlefields: Global Lirk in the Arms Race (Cambridge, m: Ball@r,
1985), pp. 57-58. By way of comparison the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima had a yield of 12.5 kt,
Table 2-4-Applications of Weapons of Mass Destruction Compared
Conventional explosives
Characteristics (for comparison with WMD) Nuclear Chemical Biological
Destructive effects Blast, shrapnel, fire Blast, fire, thermal radiation, Poisoning: skin, lungs, nerv- infectious disease or biochemi- 0
(See table 2-1) prompt ionizing radiation, ra- ous system, or blood cal poisoning
dioactive fallout1
Typical militarytargets Military bases and equipment; Similar to targets for conven- infantry concentrations, towed infantry concentrations, air bases,
Command-and-control installa- tional munitions (esp. targets artillery, air bases, ships, ports, ships, ports, staging areas, com- o
tions (e.g. command posts, ra- hardened against blast) staging areas, command cen- mand centers
ters =
dars); troop concentrations; Enemy nuclear or other WMD m
Cm
u)
ships2 facilities
Typical missions against Destruction of targets, person- Destruction of targets Unprotected personnel casual- Unprotected personnel casual-
military targets nel casualties Personnel casualties ties; disruption of operations by ties; disruption of operations by
requiring protective measures requiring protective measures
intimidation of personnel or decontamination
or decontamination
Disruption of operations by re-
Demoralization or panic of per- Demoralization or panic of per-
quiring dispersal of units. Dis- sonnel
sonnel
ruption of communications by
electromagnetic pulse effects
Drawbacks as military Small lethal radius requires ei- Potential for great "collateral Relatively large quantities re- Protective measures may re-
instrument ther many weapons or great damage” quired duce casualties
accuracy for most military mis-
Risk of retaliation and escalation Protective measures may greatly Most agents degrade quickly
sions
in kind reduce casualties With persistent spores, contam-
ination of ground that user may
Radioactive contamination of Leave buildings and equipment
wish to cross or occupy
ground that user may wish to reusable by enemy (but per-
cross or occupy sistent agents may require Leave buildings and equipment
decontamination) reusable by enemy (but persis-
ent spores may require de-
With persistent agents, chemi-
contamination)
cal contamination of ground
that user may wish to cross or Effects depend on weather and
occupy time of day; are delayed, un-
predictable, or uncontrollable
Table 2-4-Applications of Weapons of Mass Destruction Compared
Conventional explosives
Characteristics (for comparison with WMD) Nuclear Chemical Biological
Destructive effects Blast, shrapnel, fire Blast fire, thermal radiation, Poisoning: skin, lungs, nerv- Infectious disease or biochemi-
(See table 2-1) prompt ionizing radiation, ra- ous system, or Mood cal poisoning
dioactive fallout1
Typical military targets Military bases and equipment; Similar to targets for conven- Infantry concentrations, towed Infantry concentrations, air bases,
Command-and-control installa- tional munitions (esp. targets artillery, air bases, ships, ports, ships, ports, staging areas, com-
tions (e.g. command posts, ra- hardened against blast) staging areas, command cen- mand centers
dars); troop concentrations; ters
Enemy nuclear or other WMD
ships2 facilities
Typical missions against Destruction of targets, person- Destruction of targets Unprotected personnel casual- Unprotected personnel casual-
military targets nel casualties Personnel casualties ties; disruption of operations by ties; disruption of operations by
requiring protective measures requiring protective measures
Intimidation of personnel or decontamination or decontamination
Disruption of operations by re- Demoralization or panic of per- Demoralization or panic of per-
quiring dispersal of units. Dis- sonnel sonnel
ruption of communications by
electromagnetic pulse effects
Drawbacks as military Small lethal radius requires ei- Potential for great “collateral Relatively large quantities re- Protective measures may re-
instrument ther many weapons or great damage” quired duce casualties
accuracy for most military mis- Most agents degrade quickly;
Risk of retaliation and escalation Protective measures may greatly
sions
in kind reduce casualties with persistent spores, contam-
ination of ground that user may
Radioactive contamination of Leave buildings and equipment
wish to cross or occupy
ground that user may wish to reusable by enemy (but per-
cross or occupy sisent agents may require Leave buildings and equipment
decontamination) reusable by enemy (but persis-
ent spores may require de-
With persistent agents, chemi-
contamination)
cal contamination of ground
that user may wish to cross or Effects depend on weather and
occupy time of day; are delayed, un-
predictable, or uncontrollable
WI
-1
58 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
a‘ ‘strategic” nuclear war.17 Moreover, they were poorly protected throughout, but apparently only
deployed in the context of superpower arsenals by 1986 did the Iraqis learn to use their chemical
containing thousands more strategic nuclear weap- weapons in coordinated and effective ways,
ons aimed at each other’s homeland. preventing Iranian troops from massing and
New nuclear powers are likely to have any- counterattacking with conventional forces. In
where from one to a few hundred nuclear weap- 1988, Iraq used chemical weapons in an offensive
ons, most likely of explosive yields equivalent to mode, weakening Iranian forward positions and
a few tens of kilotons of TNT. These new nuclear limiting rear operations. Iraq reportedly also used
powers might intend to use their limited numbers a combination of mustard and nerve agents on
of weapons against isolated military targets for Kurdish civilian villages and rebel encamp-
tactical purposes, or they might seek to achieve ments. 19
maximum economic damage and psychological Pelletiere and Johnson point out that, as was the
effects by directly attacking cities. The decision case in World War I, the ratio of deaths to injuries
would probably depend on the military and from chemicals seems to have been low in the
political context, including whether the adversary Iran-Iraq war, and that therefore chemical weap-
or its allies also had nuclear arms, and, if so, how ons should not be thought of as ‘‘a poor man’s
many. nuclear weapon. ’20 Anthony Cordesman con-
During World War I, both sides used large cludes that although the contribution of chemical
amounts of chemical weapons. Japan used chemi- weapons to Iraqi success in any one battle is hard
cal and biological weapons against China in to estimate, and although they produced less than
World War II. Since then, the world has had some 5 percent of the more than 1 million Iran-Iraq war
further experience with use of chemical weapons: casualties,
Egypt (reportedly) in Yemen in 1967 and 1968;
Nevertheless, [they] had a critical effect on
Iraq against Iran during the 1981-1988 war, Iran Iranian military and civilian morale by late 1987,
against Iraq, and Iraq against some of its own and during the Iraqi counter-offensives and ‘‘war
Kurdish population. During its war with Iran, Iraq of the cities” in 1988. Sheer killing power is not
used aerial bombardment and artillery to deliver the key measure of success: it is rather the
mustard and nerve agents against Iranian infantry strategic, tactical, and psycho-political impact of
and ‘‘human wave’ attacks and against support the use of such weapons. Even when troops are
18
troops and staging areas. Iranian troops were equipped with defensive gear, they often feel they
17 rnd~, full application of the conventional f~epower deployed in Europe might have had consequences nearly as ternbk+which -Y
be one reason why NATO allies were willing to rely so heavily on nuclear deterrence against a Soviet attack.
18 See Steven C. Pefletiere and Douglas V. Johnson II, femons Learned: The lnm-lra~ JVar (Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Smdies
Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1991), “Appendix B: chemical Weapons,” pp. 97-101; and Anthony H. Cordesq Weapons of Muss
Destruction in the Midde East (Ixmdon: Brassey’s (UK), 1991), pp. 85-93. The following discussion is drawn primarily from these sources.
19 Si@ of mW@d, Deme, ~ blood agents were reported found in Kurdish areas in statements of Ro~rt Cook-Deg~ ad of Debo~
Lief-Dienstag and supporting documents (given in U.S. Congress, Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs, Permanent Subcommittee on
Investigations, Global Spread of Chen”calandBiological Weapons, Hearings, IOlst Cong,, 1st sess., S. Hrg, 101-744 (WashingtorL DC: U.S.
Government Printing OffiIce, 1990), pp. 242-266). There is geneml agreement that Iraq used the mustard and nerve agents. Some authors argue
that Iraqis also delivered cyanide on the village of Halabjalq but Corde_ ibid., concludes that Iranians were the likelier source.
Gordon Burck argues that the cyanide could have come from ill-manufactured Iraqi nerve agent (“The Geneva Protocol: Selective
Enforcement” in Lessons of the Guf War: Me&”ation and Conflict Resolution, AAAS, Proceedingsfiom an Annual Meeting Symposium, Feb,
17, 1990, New Orleans, Louisian& p. 17). Kenneth Timrne- on the other hand, charges that Iraqis were using purposely developed
hydrogen cyanide bombs; see The Death Lobby: How the West Armed Iraq (New Yom NY: Houghton Miffl@ 1991) p. 293. The UN Special
Commis sio% however, did not report finding hydrogen cyanide weapons in the Iraqi arsenat.
m S= Pelletiere ~d Johnsoq op. Cit., footnote 18, p. 100, T@J ~port tit ~though 27.3 ~r~nt of ~ American cmlldti~ ill World W~
I were gas-generated, and 31,4 percent of wounds were gas-related, the death rate among gas victims was only 2 percent.
Chapter 2–Assessing the Risks 59
Even if chemical weapons did not inflict large-scale casualties, they could seriously interfere with military.
operations. These pictures were taken during a 1988 exercise at Eglin Air Force base. On the left, an airman dons
cumbersome protective gear. Top right, a simulated casualty is carried away from the airfield. On the bottom
right, an aircraft is decontaminated by spraying and scrubbing with neutralizing chemicals.
are defenseless and break and run after limited or days. Thus, an attack on an infantry position
losses. Populations which fear chemical attacks might use a volatile agent like GB, while a
may well cease to support a conflict.21 viscous, persistent agent like VX might be
On the other hand, chemical weapons used applied to an airbase or a strip of territory. Table
against troops in World War I did not appear to 2-5 indicates approximate quantities of those two
damage civilian morale. Nor can it be shown that types of agent that might be needed for some
chemical weapons clearly affected civilian mo- representative military missions. Although a few
rale in the Iran-Iraq war. drops of nerve agent can kill, the fact that
Chemical weapons may be used in tactical chemical agents are usually disseminated as a
warfare either to kill or terrorize instantly, or to wind-borne aerosol or spray means that many
impose operational difficulties on the enemy by tons may be needed to produce many battlefield
contaminating key areas or equipment for hours casualties. The military utility of attacks on troops
21 Cordesw OD.
,’
cit.. foomote 18. D. ~.
,
,.
60 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
Mission Quantity
would depend greatly on how effectively they freed defensive positions in long wars of attri-
were protected with gas masks, clothing, and tion. 24 Another analyst argues that suitable tacti-
shelters .22 cal targets for biological weapons might include
For biological weapons, there is little docu- reserve combat units, formations massing in
mented experience with military use. 23 O n e preparation for an offensive, air force squadrons,
analyst speculates that, for surprise attacks or for and rear area support units:
repelling immediate attacks by others, biological Thus, it would appear that biological weapons
weapons would be too slow and unpredictable to could be militarily useful in situations when
be militarily attractive. He argues, however, that immediate results are not required and where the
they might be useful on the front lines against danger to friendly forces is minimal. Thus, even
~ acm.icaI w~orl researchers very likely have in the past studied methods of penetratinggas maaks with chemi~ w~~ agm~.
23 Japmrepo~y ~ biologi~ w~~e ag~t China&fore and during World War II, with konchsive reSUltS. Although ~ J~~e
Army performed field trials in which bombs canying plague-infested fleas were dropped on at least 11 Chinese cities, the weapons wcxe not
reliable and had little military impact-although they claimed an estimated 700 civilian lives. Conlamination of
Chinese
o territory with plague
also caused thousands of unintended casualties among Japanese troops. See “Japan’s Germ Warfare: The U.S. Cover-Up of a War Crime,”
BuZletin of Concerned Asian Schofars, vol. 12, October-December 1980, pp. 2-17; John W, Powell “A HiddaI Chapter in History,” Bdletin
of the Atmi”c Sciem”sts, vol. 37, No. 8, October 1981, pp. 44-52; and Peter Williams and David Wallace, UnJ”t 73J: Japan’s Secret BioZogicaf
Warfare in Worfd Wur H (New York NY: Free Ress, 1989).
u ~~ond A, ~~~, “Biologic~ wiu-fm~d tie Third World,” Politics andthe Li~e Sciences, vO1. 9, No. 1, A-t 1990, PP. 59-76.
—
ons into their military forces, the primary role of civilians may kill many more unprotected people
the weapons was not to win wars but to back (e.g., thousands) than would equivalent amounts
threats. of high explosives. On the other hand, the many
This terroristic component to strategic warfare uncertainties involved in dispersing chemical
with weapons of mass destruction makes it agents efficiently-as well as the effectiveness of
difficult to analyze just what would constitute relatively simple civil defense measures (e.g.,
‘‘rational’ or ‘‘irrational’ use by proliferant wearing gas masks and remaining inside living
states. When leaders threaten to use the weapons spaces that are sealed off during attack)--could
(whether in an initial or a retaliatory attack), they keep casualties relatively low. Contamination of
must decide what level of threat will be suffi- certain areas by persistent chemical agents might
ciently intimidating. In some cases, conveying slow down industrial activities for days or weeks,
the impression that one could assemble a nuclear but for the most part chemical weapons would
bomb in 2 weeks might seem enough; in other leave the economic infrastructure of cities intact.
cases, the threat to launch a nuclear missile attack Enclosed military facilities are even more likely
in 1 hour might not. to be protected and to continue functioning.
A leader actually ordering a strategic attack Biological—Like chemical weapons, biolog-
must subjectively predict its psychological im- ical weapons would leave the material (as op-
pact on the other side’s population and govern- posed to human) economic and military infra-
ment, not just calculate the physical effects of the structure relatively untouched. 28 Like nuclear
weapons on the other side’s war machine. The weapons, they have the potential in modest
attacker must also estimate what kind of retalia- amounts (e.g., a few kilograms of agent), properly
tion to expect, and whether he would be willing delivered, to kill and disable many thousands of
to accept it. Alternatively, the leader may be urban residents and to seriously impair war-
ordering a retaliatory attack, either in pure re- supporting activities. On the other hand, biolog-
venge or to warn against further escalation of the ical weapons (except for some toxins) act more
conflict. In sum, this section’s discussion of the slowly than chemical or nuclear weapons, taking
physical suitability of the weapons for strategic days or weeks to achieve full effect. Moreover,
warfare is only part of the story. their effects are much harder to predict than those
Threatening both population and property, of nuclear weapons: weather, time of day, local
nuclear weapons are the most dangerous strategic terrain, and civil defense measures could all act to
weapons. While civil defense measures can miti- reduce casualties (as with chemical weapons).
gate their effects somewhat, within a certain Unlike nuclear and chemical weapons, the use
radius (dependent on the explosive yield) they of biological weapons might not be attributed to
promise certain destruction of all but deeply enemy attack, since outbreaks of disease can
buried blast shelters. Despite the great uncertain- occur naturally. The problems of protecting
ties in calculating the precise consequences of civilian populations against biological attack are
nuclear war, the impact of even a ‘‘small’ or similar to those cited above for protecting troops:
“limited” nuclear attack would be enormous. 27 immediate detection and protection are likely to
Chemical—Medium- to large-scale attacks be difficult, and effective advance vaccination
with chemical weapons (e.g., tens of tons) on may be infeasible.
29 me wee non-Russian s~tes have at ]east a political veto over launch of the weapons on their territory, but apparently hey do not cmntlY
have the technicalmeans to launch them independently.
JO OTA repofl on nonproliferation pOllCitX, in prepmation.
31 convention on the PrOhlbltiOn of the Dey,elopment, p~od~~fi~n and stockpiling ofBacterio[og;Cal (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and
on Their Destruction.
64 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
Middle East/ Algeria Possibly interested in nuclear weapons, but currently lacks facilities; has agreed
North Africa to IAEA inspection of formerly secret, Chinese-supplied nuclear reactor; not a
party to the NPT.
Iran Reportedly pursuing nuclear weapons, but little public evidence of progress; CIA
testimony estimated production unlikely before the end of the decade without
foreign assistance.
Iraq Massive program uncovered after Gulf War; United Nations has required
destruction of most infrastructure, but knowledgeable personnel still in country.
South Asia India Exploded a nuclear device in 1974; probably has sufficient materials for several
weapons.
Pakistan Undoubtedly has nuclear weapon program, probably successful. U.S. President
no longer certifies to Congress that Pakistan does not possess a nuclear device,
suggesting high likelihood that it does.
East Asia North Korea Suspicious reactor and reprocessing laboratory; submitted to some IAEA
inspections in 1992 and 1993, but refused others; in March 1993, denied IAEA
access to suspected reprocessing waste sites and declared its intention to
withdraw from NPT (since rescinded).
Latin America Argentina in agreement with Brazil, seems to have ceased weapons program. No disclosure
of progress towards weapons, but suspected of having developed clandestine
enrichment plant, a key step towards weapons.
Brazil In agreement with Argentina, has apparently ceased weapons program. in 1987,
revealed it had developed the ability to enrich uranium. (Brazil has also had a
nuclear power submarine program requiring highly enriched uranium fuel.)
Africa South Africa Widely suspected to be very near nuclear-weapon capability, South Africa
declared in March 1993 that it had in fact constructed 6 nuclear weapons, but
dlsmantledthem in 1990. The South African president promised that South Africa
would cooperate fully with the IAEA to assure the world that it was complying with
the NPT. Joined NPT in 1991, placed declared weapons grade uranium under
IAEA inspection, and presumably dropped nuclear weapon ambitions,
SOURCE: Leonard S. Speotor and Jacqueline R. Smith, Nucfear AmbWons: 7he Spread of Nuc/ear Wapons 1989-19SW (Boulder, CO: Westview
Press, 1990) and Nuclear Non-Proliferation Project, “Nuclear Proliferation Status Report July 1992,” (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, July 1, 1992). The latter report aiso: names Libya as “presumed to be seeidng N-weapons,” but does not cite evidence of
indigenous nuclear weapon facilities; and names Synia as identified by a U.S. officiai as having a “nuckar program with suspicious intentions,” but
no suspicious facilities have been publicly cited.
on this list now appear to have halted, or even Independent States. Each of the three govern-
reversed, their programs. In a class by them- ments has pledged to abide by the START I
selves are three republics of the former Soviet agreement and to join the NPT as a non-nuclear-
Union—Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. weapon state (so far, Belarus has ratified both
On the territory of each are former Soviet strategic treaties, Kazakhstan the START I Treaty). Should
nuclear weapons. These weapons are nominally any of them fail to abide by that promise, it would
under the joint control of the Commonwealth of become a de facto nuclear-weapon state, although
Chapter 2–Assessing the Risks 65
Middle East
Libya x
Egypt x >
Israel — — — x
Syria x
Iraq x
Iran — x >
Saudi Arabia x
Yemen x
South Asia
India — — — x
Pakistan x >?
East Asia
Taiwan — — — )@?
North Korea — — x >?
South Korea — )(b >
Southern Africa
South Africa — )(? >?
Latin America
Argentina — — )(? — >
Brazil — — * >
NOTES:
a ‘t[n~pient” means some capability to modify existing Scuds, but little else. “Intermediate” means the capability to
reverse-engineer Scud-like missiles, to introduce changes, and to make solid-propellant short-range missiles.
“Advanced” means capable of making missiles comparable to those producact by the United States in the mid-1960s
(including intercontinental ballistic missiles and space launch vehicles).
b South Korea COUM be characterized as “Advanced” although it has only demonstrated capabilities for reverse-
engineering. Largely because of diplomatic efforts by the United States since the 1970s, Taiwan and South Korea do not
appear to be aggressively pursuing either ballistic or space-launch missile programs at the present time, although they
would have the technological capability to do so if they chose. Brazil’s space-launch rocket program is in abeyance for
financial reasons, but its technological capability gives it missile-making potential.
—> Indicates estimated potential for progress over next 10 years.
? Indicates greater uncertainty.
SOURCE: Adapted by OTA from Stanford Center for International Security and Arms Control,Assessing Ba//istjc Missi/e
Proliferation and ks Control, November 1991, pp. 153, 15. See OTA background paper on technologies underlying
weapons of mass destruction, in press.
has long had that capability. Israel and India, both As shown in table 2-9, countries of prolifera-
suspected nuclear powers, have space launch tion concern vary widely in their ability to
vehicles in principle adaptable as missiles that produce missiles, extend their capabilities, or
could deliver weapons to intercontinental ranges. design new types. Whereas several developing
Both have also tested ballistic missiles that could nations have essentially no indigenous capability,
reach the territory of other nuclear powers (e.g., others match that of the United States in the
Russia, in the case of Israel, and China, in the case mid-to-late 1960s. Practically all, however, de-
of India), posing an implicit nuclear threat and pend on assistance or at least purchases of
possibly provoking counter-threats in return. supplies from abroad; outside the most industri-
..
F-4 Mig-29
Egypt +
Iran F-16 +
Israel + Iran
,- S. Korea Israel Syria
Egypt Egypt
Pakistan Libya
S. Korea N. Korea
Mirage F-1 ~
+
Iraq
prithvi Scud B
A A . . . . . .+.
Mirage-5 Mirage 200 )
‘“ ---.--1
Scud C “ ‘ +-
India Iran Egypt
Syria 4 Iran Egypt
N. Korea Libya India
Egypt 1 [
Libya ~Pakistan
200 N. Korea
. -—
600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
Maximum range (km)
This figure shows nominal ranges and payloads of selected aircraft and missile systems of countries (beyond the 5
nuclear-weapon states) suspected of having or trying to acquire weapons of mass destruction, The graph is not Intended to be
exhaustive, but only to indicate that each country already possesses aircraft or missile systems of one kind or another that could
be adapted to deliver weapons of mass destruction.
SOURCE: Office of Technology Assessment, 1993.
ally advanced countries, only Israel, India, and using foreign-licensed technology, but many
China might be argued to be independent in have been able to import them. Figure 2-4 shows
missile design and production. 34 For a more some of the types of combat aircraft owned by
detailed breakdown of missile possessions and proliferate countries listed in figure 2-3. Scud
programs, see the background paper to this report. missiles, the Iraqi-modified Scud, and the Indian
Few nations can produce advanced fighter Prithvi missile are included for comparison.
aircraft indigenously; some produce them locally
—
~ J-e E. Nolaq Trappings Of power: Ballistic Missiles in the Third World (WSshingtom DC: Brookings ~timtio~ 1991), P. 18. me
rewewer of the literature on ballistic missile proliferation has concluded:
. . . it is possible to show that the rmssile programs of almost all countries have been exaggerated in the literature. A careful
scmtiny of the data shows that as of early 1992, only six or seven countries of the [author’s] list of twenty-two had a meanin@d
ballistic missile program or capability. That includes India and Israel, the countries with the most developed programs; Brazil,
Argen@ and possibly South Africaj which have meaningfd indigenous launcher development programs but not yet
operational ballistic missiles; and North Korea and Iraq which possess (in the case of Iraq did possess) the indigenous capability
to produce Scuds. All of the other countries have either purchased missiles (mostly Frogs or Scuds or have indigenous efforts
which does [sic] not look promising.)
Matthias Dembinski, “Ballistic Missile Proliferation and the New World Order: A Critical Survey of the Literature, ” CSIA Discussion paper
92-07, Kennedy School of Oovernmeng Harvard University, July 1992, p. 6.
Chapter 2–Assessing the Risks 169
More than 40 developing countries possess The following sections explore the conse-
antiship cruise missiles, with ranges typically quences of proliferation from two perspectives.
under 150 km. 35 So far, there have been n o First, considering the broader concerns of the
publicly identified programs among proliferant global political system and human welfare, what
nations to develop cruise missiles for delivering might be the consequences for the world? Second,
weapons of mass destruction. Rather than buy or from the narrower Perspective of U.S. deterrence
indigenously develop long-range cruise missiles, and potential uses of force, what might be the
proliferant states seeking them will most likely consequences for U.S. foreign and military poli-
attempt either to attach warheads to nonmilitary cies?
systems (such as small aircraft) or to retrofit
missiles originally equipped with conventional
warheads (see delivery systems chapter of the 1 The International Community
background paper on technologies underlying
weapons of mass destruction). NATURE OF WARFARE
Since both nuclear and biological weapons Destruction of human beings on a large scale is
carry so much destructive potential in such small not new to warfare, or even to this century.
packages, they are both suitable for small scale
Nevertheless, weapons of mass destruction com-
attacks by unconventional methods-e. g., smug-
press the amount of time and effort needed to kill.
gling and secret emplacement, or delivery by
Wars lasting a few hours could now devastate
small boat or light aircraft. Politically and techni-
cally plausible scenarios for the current set of
populations, cities, or entire countries in ways
that previously took months or years. Nuclear or
suspected proliferants to threaten U.S. territory
with nuclear or other weapons of mass destruc- biological wars among proliferant nations may
tion, however, are difficult to devise. None have not match the scope of a U.S.-Soviet exchange of
missiles or combat aircraft with sufficient range thousands of thermonuclear weapons, but the
to reach the United States. But since strategic damage to their people could still be catastrophic.
warfare with these weapons would be so much a Even in a conventional war, high-explosive or
matter of psychology, it is also difficult to rule it incendiary bombing attacks on nuclear, chemical,
out. A state that badly wanted to wreak or biological facilities could release harmful
destruction on a U.S. city could probably do so, substances into the environment. In this way, a
whether it had advanced delivery systems or countrys own weapons of mass destruction could
not (and whether the United States had effec- be turned against it. In a war in which only one
tive antiaircraft or antimissile defenses or not). side had and used weapons of mass destruction,
the other might retaliate by attacking nuclear
IMPLICATIONS OF PROLIFERATION reactors, possibly causing mass casualties (from
If more nations do acquire nuclear, chemical, or radioactive fallout) and economic disruption com-
biological weapons, what will be the effect on parable to those it had suffered.
international security? Since there are important
differences in the effects and the military utilities
of each of the three types of weapons, the CHANCES OF WAR
consequences of their proliferation will not be the Some scholars have argued that, at least under
same. They may, however, be interrelated. the right circumstances, further nuclear prolifera-
35 w. se~ cm~, cm~~e ~i~~ile proliferation in rhe 1990 $ (w~~gto~ X: Center for Smategic and International Studies, 1992), p. 2;
and Eric Arnett, Sea-bunched Cruise Missiles and U.S. Secun-ry (New York, NY: Praeger, 1991), p. 28.
70 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
36 See Kenneth N, Waltz-, ‘The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More my Be Better,’ Adelphi Paper 17Z (_I.mdon: International Institute for
S@ategic Studies, 1981) and John J. Weltmaq “Nuclear Devolution and World Order,” World Politics, vol. 32, January 1980, pp. 169-193,
arguing although that considerable nuclear proliferation is inevitable, regional balances of nuclear power could emerge and be no less stable
than the superpower balance; the latter author was only slightly less optimistic in “Managing Nuclear Multipolarity,’ International Secun”ty,
winter 1981/82, vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 182-194. See also John Mearsheimer, “Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War, ”
International Security, summer 1990 (vol. 15, No. 1), pp. 5-56. Mearsheimer advocates that
. . . the United States should encourage the limited and carefully managed proliferation of nuclear weapons in Europe. The best
hope for avoiding war in post-Cold-War Europe is nuclear deterrence; hence some nuclear proliferation is necessary to
compensate for the withdrawal of the Soviet and American nuclear arsenals tiom Centrat Europe. Idealty, as I have argued,
nuclear weapons would spread to Germany, but to no other state. (p, 54)
He does not explain how proliferation can be “carhlly managed” and confined only to German Y, or, indeed, only to Europe.
Another author argues not so much that nuclear proliferation will be stabilizing, but that it is inevitable, He therefore concludes that
the U.S. must learn to adjust to the situation. While it may be possible tofocus some policy efforts on temporarily delaying proliferation to
some “unstable or brutal anti-American dictatorships,’ for the most part the U.S. should give up ‘a non-proli.kation system that is becoming
less and less viable.” TM Galen Carpenter, “A New proliferation Policy,” The National Interest, summer 1992, pp. 63-72,
ST pmap~u~ from Mearsheimer, Op cit., footnote 36, pp. 37-38.
Chapter 2–Assessing the Risks 71
● whether Saudi Arabia would have agreed to Pacific affairs to weakening. Japan also might
participate in a coalition to drive Iraq from question its own renunciation of the weapons.
Kuwait,
● whether other Arab states within range of Erosion of norms
Iraqi missiles or aircraft would have joined, Iraq’s use of chemical weapons has already
● whether the United States and European weakened the international taboo attached to
nations would have been willing to send them. The frost large-scale use of biological
their troops into the region, or weapons would be shocking, the next less so, and
● what role U.S. nuclear capabilities might so on. Moreover, a single successful application
have played in building coalition consensus. of a biological weapon might inspire non-state
Nor do we know what coalition reactions would terrorists to try the same thing. Although a small
have been if Iraq had threatened to respond with nuclear war might mobilize the international
nuclear or biological attacks on European cities. community into action to prevent a recurrence, it
A more dangerous Iraqi threat might have caused might instead show that outside powers will try to
coalition participants to think twice. On the other keep their distance.
hand, they may have come to feel all the more
strongly that it was better to stop Iraqi aggression Increase of supply
sooner, rather than later when its ambitions and More states in the business of making nuclear,
power had grown even larger. The United States, chemical, or biological weapons could also mean
for its part, might have considered additional more potential suppliers of means of production
long-range bomber or cruise missile attacks as or actual weapons to still other parties-perhaps
alternatives to large ground-troop concentrations. states, perhaps terrorist groups. Even if prolifer-
ant states did not intentionally transfer these
goods, they might become targets for illicit
FALLING DOMINOES
foreign purchasers and smugglers.
38 See U.S. con~ess, offke of Technology Assessment, Technology Against Terrorism: Sfrucwing Securify, OTA-lsC-s 11 ~~~to~
DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, January 1992).
. —- -
not be as successful as the owners of nuclear, competition for its adversaries, feeding regional
chemical, or biological weapon facilities have arms races. Nations pay for these arms races at the
been so far. Indeed, it is still too early to be certain cost of their peoples’ welfare.
that Russia will successfully gain and keep stable,
central control over all the weapons of the former Safety and environmental effects on proliferants’
and their neighbors’ populations
Soviet Union.
The United States and the former Soviet Union
face monstrous clean-up operations: radioactive
Increased risk from political fragmentation elements and hazardous chemicals contaminate
Disintegration of national political authority, the soil, sediments, surface water, and ground-
regional secession, or civil war could deliver water at most or all of the sites where nuclear
weapons of mass destruction into the hands of weapons were manufactured.39 To complete the
groups that, at best, would be poorly equipped to U.S. cleanup could cost hundreds of billions of
manage the weapons safely, or at worst, would dollars. Little is known about the public health
use them irresponsibly. Again, the republics of consequences if this mess is not cleaned up-as,
the former Soviet Union, perhaps including in the former Soviet Union, it seems unlikely to
Russia, seem vulnerable to this risk. be. Production-and destruction--of chemical
weapons also poses environmental risks. Neither
the United States nor Russia has developed
Diversion of economic resources
politically acceptable plans (let alone built the
The start-up costs of a nuclear weapon program
facilities) to destroy their chemical weapon stock-
are great. Iraq probably spent about $10 billion piles according to the 10-year schedule specified
before its efforts were interrupted. A narrower in the CWC.40
program than Iraq’s might cost less, but could still There is little reason to think that developing
cost billions. Acquisition programs for chemical nations manufacturing weapons of mass destruc-
and biological weapons cost much less. Despite tion will allocate much of their scarce resources
the expense, some countries may see weapons of to environmental health and safety. One might
mass destruction as substitutes for larger, even take as an indicator the recklessness with which
more expensive, conventional forces (the United the Iraqi chemical weapon program handled toxic
States decided in the 1960s that nuclear weapons chemicals (as reported by U.N. Special Commis-
were a way of getting ‘‘more bang for the buck’ ‘). sion inspectors).
At the same time, those in charge of conventional Infectious biological agents eventually die, and
forces may feel that spending on weapons of mass toxins are biodegradable. But some spore-
destruction diverts resources from more usable forming microorganisms, in particular anthrax
military instruments. Nevertheless, in most cases bacteria, can persist in the environment for many
the quest for weapons of mass destruction is years. Moreover, biological weapon programs
usually embedded in an across-the-board arms themselves can pose a threat to public health, as
competition. Each country’s possession of such a apparently happened when anthrax spores were
weapon will inevitably increase the stakes of the accidentally released in 1979 from a biological
39 Se. U.S. conge~~, ~lce of ~c~olo~ Assessment, compl~ cleanup: The Environmental kgacy of Nuclear Weapons Production,
OTA-O-484 (Washington DC: U.S. Government Printing OffIce, February 1991) for an assessment of the scope of the U.S. problem; the
situation in the former Soviet Union is unquestionably fm worse.
m See us, ConPess, Offlce of ~holon Ass~sment, Disposal of Chemical Weapons: Alternative Technol+vlw backgro~d PaWrS
OTA-BP-O-95 (Washington, DC: OffIce of lk.chnology Assessment June 1992).
—— —
weapon research facility in the Soviet city of the calculus of U.S. intervention would have been
Sverdlovsk, triggering a deadly epidemic.41 even more different.
The nature of U.S. decisions might have
I U.S. Political-Military Policies depended in part on whether U.S. leaders believed
U.S. military forces are likely to continue to be that the Iraqi rulers would have themselves been
called to deter or combat military actions abroad, deterred from escalating to the use of nuclear
whether unilaterally or as a member of an weapons by U.S. nuclear retaliatory capabilities.
international coalition. Future aggressor states (To the extent that U.S. military forces will be
having weapons of mass destruction will change used in conjunction of those of other states, the
the context for U.S. decisions about when and dynamics of building and sustaining coalitions in
how to threaten or use force. the face of threats from weapons of mass destruc-
tion will also be important; this topic is discussed
below.)
DETERRENCE
We now know of one historical case in which
the proliferant country hoped to use its nuclear
Deterrence oft he United States weapon not to deter U.S. military intervention,
The United States acted to protect its national but to cause it. Although South Africa kept its
interests against challenges from a Soviet Union nuclear weapon program secret,
heavily armed with nuclear, chemical, and possi-
bly biological weapons aimed at U.S. territory, The strategy was that if the situation in
U.S. forces abroad, and U.S. allies. Nevertheless, southern Africa were to deteriorate seriously, a
confidential indication of the [nuclear] deterrent
the risk of direct conflict with the Soviet Union
capability would be given to one or more of the
clearly constrained U.S. definitions of its national major powers, for example the United States, in
interests, its policies for defending those interests, an attempt to persuade them to intervene.42
and its strategies and tactics for managing clashes
with Soviet international policies. Thus, South Africa hoped to engage in a kind of
Would other, though vastly smaller, nuclear (or reverse nuclear blackmail.
biological or chemical) powers be able to deter
the United States from regional interventions to Deterrence by the United States
protect its interests? Possibly, depending on To some extent, the U.S. and Soviet nuclear
whether U.S. leaders perceived the stakes to be arsenals neutralized each other; the two nuclear
worth the risks. In the case of Iraq, for example, superpowers never engaged in direct military
the United States was concerned about, but not conflict with one another at least in part because
deterred by, the known Iraqi chemical arsenal and of the risk of escalation to mutual annihilation.
the possibility of a biological weapon threat. The Even in much more one-sided confrontations, the
United States would have had a different problem availability of nuclear weapons to the greater
if Iraq had had nuclear weapons. If Iraq could power did not deter, for example, the North
have credibly threatened to use a few nuclear Vietnamese from engaging the United States or
weapons against U.S. cities or those of U.S. allies, the Mujaheddin in Afghanistan from taking on the
41 U.S. ~iciom abut u event WCre _ Officiall confirmed by the RUSSkUM in 1992. !k R. Jefiy smith “Ycltsti B1=CS “79
y
Anthrax On GeMI Warfare Efforts, ’ Washington Post, June 16, 1992, pp. Al, A2. For a Russian Komsomolskaya Pravah report with details
on the inciden~ see Foreign Broadcast Information Service, JPRSReport: Prolz~eration, JPRS-TND-92-022, July 10, 1992, pp. 19-24. See also
Milton Leitenberg, “Anttuax in Sverdlovsk: New Pieces to the Puzzle,” Arms ControZ Today, April 1992, pp. l&13.
AZ presideylt F.W. deWer~ speech to joint session of South Afrkanparliamen4 h- bed from JoharmedmrgRadio South AfiicaNetworlq
Mar. 24, 1993 (JPRS-TND-93-009, Mar. 29, 1993, p. 2).
74 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
Soviet Union. Nor did the nuclear stand-off deter MILITARY OPERATIONS
the superpowers from arming each other’s ene- In preparing for war in Central Europe, U.S.
mies in those two conflicts. In these cases, the forces had to take account of the possibility that
lesser powers had good reason to believe that the they would confront Warsaw Pact nuclear or
nuclear superpowers were very unlikely to use chemical weapons. They could probably learn to
their nuclear weapons-both because of the prepare to operate under such threats elsewhere in
opprobrium that would come from such a dispro- the world. Even so, having to cope with weapons
portionate use of violence and because of the risk of mass destruction would make U.S. foreign
of escalation of conflict with the victim’s nuclear- interventions costlier and more difficult. Nuclear
armed ally. or biologica1 43 weapons (to a greater extent than
Emerging nuclear powers that avoid direct chemical) would increase the risk of casualties.
attacks on the United States may justifiably doubt For Operation Desert Shield (preceding Desert
whether the United States would unleash nuclear Storm), the U.S. had to move in large quantities
weapons on them for conventionally armed acts of troops and supplies through a few ports and
of aggression elsewhere. Thus, U.S. nuclear airfields. An effective nuclear, chemical, or bio-
deterrence, already a small factor in such situa- logical threat against vital transportation nodes or
tions, might not be much affected by nuclear staging areas would have caused great difficulty
proliferation. for the Coalition. (An alternative strategy might
U.S. conventional military threats may have have been to rely on still more intensive long-
deterred less industrialized countries from attack- range cruise-missile and bombing attacks than
ing U.S. interests abroad. Would further prolifera- were used in Desert Storm; this strategy, how-
tion of weapons of mass destruction weaken such ever, would still leave the problem of occupying
deterrence in the future? The issue in this case is territory on the ground.)
not just whether U.S. leaders decide that U.S. During the Cold War, part of U.S. preparedness
interests at stake justify deploying conventional in the European theater was based on the assump-
forces in the face of the risks to them posed by tion that the United States would retaliate in kind
weapons of mass destruction: it is also whether against Soviet nuclear (and possibly against
the nation to be deterred would believe that its chemical) attacks; tither, the United States did
own threats would counter-deter the United not foreclose the possibility that it would initiate
States, leaving itself free to act without fear of the use of nuclear weapons if it were losing a
U.S. intervention. For the next several years, such conventional battle. On the other hand, much of
a counter-deterrent threat might take the form of the world would probably see U.S. first use of
either limited unconventional attacks on U.S. nuclear weapons in the developing world as
cities, or somewhat larger, but still limited, grossly disproportionate to any conceivable U.S.
attacks on U.S. forces intervening abroad. interests there.44
43 ~ me a- of ~=tive m- of detection that would allow soldiers to don PI’OteCtivt? g= soon emllgh.
44 U.S. decisionmakers may have already internalid such concerns. Ixwis Dunn notes that
. . . war games on this subject have fiquently revealed a reluctance of players from the Washington national security elite to
use nuclear weapons against third-world countries, even in nxaliation for nuclear use.
Contairu”ng Nuclear Proliferation, A&lphi Papers 263 @mdorx Brassey’s for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1991), p. 73,
note 1-4S.
—— .—— —
45 For ~m &U~~ion of ~esoWces from the former Sotiet Ufion tit co~d ~d nucl~ prol~~tio~ ~ ZhCky Davis ~d JOXE@UI
Medal~ Nuclear Proliferation From Russia: Options for Control, Report 92-310 INR (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Semice,
Mar. 30, 1992). See also Kurt M. CarnpbeL Ashton B. Carter, Steven E. Miller, and Charles A. ZrakeL Soviet Nuclear Fission: Conrrol of
the Nuclear Arsenal in a Disintegrating Soviet Union (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Center for Science & International Affairs, Studies
in International Security, No. 1, November 1991); and Graham Allison et al., Cooperative Denuclearizan”on: From Pledges to Deed
(Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Center for Science & International Affairs, Studies in International Security, No. 2, January 1993).
. ...
Federation. The question of whether the Russian 9 Export of Critical Information, Equipment
Federation itself will fragment, or whether the or Materials
custodial system for the thousands of former The most immediate risk may lie here. The
Soviet nuclear weapons and hundreds of tons of major areas of concern are dual-use technologies,
nuclear weapon materials (enriched uranium and critical dual-use materials, and fissile materials.
plutonium) will break down, still seems unsettled. Russia and the other former Soviet republics face
One can imagine either successor states attempt- severe shortages of hard currency. They are trying
ing to become nuclear powers, or non-state to establish market systems of production and
groups seizing and exploiting weapons or materi- trade, but the legal infrastructure to regulate those
als. activities is not yet fully developed. It is possible
that some exporting enterprises may be unaware
of the proliferation risks of particular goods;
1 Export of Weapons or of Weapon
others may intentionally take advantage of poorly
Components
enforced or corruptly administered export control
Press reports indicate the smuggling of all
laws. A Ukrainian firm reportedly has already
kinds from the former Soviet Union is a growing
exported tens of tons of hafnium and zirconium,
problem. Despite some rumors, there is as yet no
metals on the Nuclear Suppliers Group list of
serious evidence that Soviet nuclear weapons
restricted dual-use items.46
have been sold to other countries. There have
In its need for foreign trade, a government itself
been no reports of the export of chemical or
may disagree with other nations’ judgments about
biological weapons, but the possibility that it
which exports constitute a proliferation risk. For
might happen cannot yet be entirely excluded.
example, Russia has declared its intent to pro-
Much will depend on the continued integrity of
ceed, over U.S. objections, with sale to India of
the Russian nuclear weapon custodial system
cryogenic rocket motor technology for space
under conditions of economic hardship and politi-
launch vehicles. The United States, declaring the
cal confusion.
sale to be in violation of the Missile Technology
Control Regime constraints that the Russians had
1 Emigration of Technical Personnel voluntarily adopted, has suspended U.S. trade
There is also no clear evidence yet that former with both the Russian and Indian organizations
Soviet technical personnel with knowledge of involved.
how to build weapons of mass destruction have Fissile materials might in one way or another
emigrated to other countries. There have been be diverted from former Soviet weapon stockpiles
reports of some attempts at recruitment. Although or from production facilities. The possibility of a
such scientists or technicians might not be essen- breakdown in the Russian custodial system for
tial to a third-world country’s weapon program, weapons is mentioned above. A similar break-
they might be able to provide useful guidance down in the control of material production
about what works and what doesn’t work, thus facilities, leading to theft and export of fissile
speeding the development of weapons.
46 S* William c. Potter, “Nuclear Exports From the Former Soviet Uniom What’s New, What’s T?ue,’ Arms Control T*,
January/February 1993, p. 3.
Chapter 2–Assessing the Risks 77
48
materials, is also conceivable. Outside Russia, weapon programs. Unlike other new prolifer-
some important former Soviet production facili- ants, such countries might inherit, rather than
ties remain; of particular concern is a fast breeder have to import, some critical weapon technolo-
reactor, capable of producing over 100 kg of gies. Given the current economic conditions
weapon-grade plutonium per year, at Aktau, throughout the former Soviet Union, new nuclear
Kazakhstan. 47 weapon programs do not seem to be an immediate
threat. Chemical or biological weapons would be
I Indigenous Weapon Development easier to develop. Kazakhstan has inherited chem-
A longer term possibility is that some former ical and biological weapon facilities from the
Soviet republics might utilize their own expertise, former Soviet military complex; Uzbekistan has
equipment, or materials to develop indigenous inherited test ranges for both types of weapons.
47 rbid., p. S. StX dso wilti C. Potter, Nuclear Profiles of the Soviet Successor States (Monterey, CA: CIS Nonpmli.femtion ~oJ~4
Monterey Institute of International Studies, April 1993) for more detailed listings of former Soviet nuclear-related facilities.
48 sw CenM htelfigen~ Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, The Dgfense Indusm”es of the Newly Independent States of Eurasia, ~
publication number OSE-93-10001, January 1993.
Appendix 2-A
Sources on Tables
Listing Countries of
Chemical and Biological
Weapon Concern
T
ables 2-7 and 2-8 list countries reported in various published sources to have, or to be trying
to acquire, chemical or biological warfare capabilities. As indicated in the chapter text, the lists
provided there are in no way to be considered authoritative or comprehensive. OTA has merely
recorded the countries listed in two-thirds or more of the cited publications. The following
tables show not only the countries making this arbitrary cut-off line, but also the other countries
mentioned in fewer than two-thirds of the sources. In the case of the chemical warfare program list, this
appendix also details the sources cited in the International Handbook on Chemical Weapons
Proliferation and utilized in the OTA table.
79
——
77
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 >7-7
7 - 7 7 7 > 7 7 7 7 7 > v
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
7 7 7 - 7 7 7 7 7 *
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
7 7 7 7 7 7 77>77 -?
7 7 7 7 7 - 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 - 7 7 7 *.+.
.—
Appendix 2-A-Sources on Tables Listing Countries of Chemical and Biological Weapon Concern 81
Sources and Commentary from Gordon Burck and Charles C. Flowerree, International Handbook on Chemical
Weapons Proliferation (New York, NY: Greenwood Press, 1991), pp. 164-171:
DNI( 1989: Director of Naval intelligence, Rear Admiral Thomas Brooks, prepared testimony for the
Seapower and Strategic and Critical Materials Subcommittee, House Armed Services
Committee, Feb. 22, 1989, pp. 38-39.
Harris 1989/1 990: Elisa Harris, “Chemical Weapons Proliferation in the Developing World,” WSLBrassey’s
Yearbook 1989 (kndon: Brassey’s Defence Publishers, 1989), p. 74.
NY Times 1989: Stephen Engelberg, “Chemical Arms: Third V@rld Trend,” /Vew York Thnes, Jan. 7,1989 (not
a complete listing). (Source given as U.S. administration officials; ?—France is not
mentioned in the article).
Time 1989: Jill Smolowe, ‘The Search for a Poison Antidote,” Tjme, Jan. 16, 1989, p. 22 (source given
as SiPRi).
USN 1989: Joseph L. Gailoway et al., “Bad Chemical Reactions,” U.S. News & Wfx/cf Report, Jan. 16,
1989, p. 30 (sources for a table that also contains other information are given as ArmsContmi
Associaiton, Federation of American Scientists, and Senate Armed Services Committee).
Knight 1989: Knight-Ridder news services, James McCartney, “U.S. Sees Threat of Chemicals,”
Phi/ade/phia /nquirer, Jan. 8,1989, p. F1 (also named Japan, Netherlands and Switzerland-
a historical possessor and two states that probably have never possessed CW weapons,
making this list unusually unreliable).
Chi Trib 1989: Thoma Shanker, “West Underwrites Third VWrld’s Chemical Arms,” Chicago Tribune, Apr.
3, 1989, pp. 1,6; and “Lack of Candor Blocks Chemical Arms Treaty,” Apr. 4, 1989, pp. 1,
6 (source given as U.S. Government officials).
McGeorge 1989: Harvy J. McGeorge, “Chem ical Addict ion,” Defense& Fore/gn Affairs, April 1989, pp. 16-19,
32-33.
McCain 1989: Senator John S. McCain, “Proliferation in the 1990s: implications for U.S. Policy and Force
Planning,” table 1, Congressional Record, Nov. 1, 1989, p. S14605; “Estimates are Based
on a Variet y of Sources, including unclassif ied testimony by CiA Director William H. WWster,
Seth Carus, David Goldberg, Elisa D. Harris and others and donot reflect the estimates of the
U.S. Government.” Also published as “Proliferation in the 1990s: implications for U.S.Poiicy
and Force Planning,” Strategjc Review, summer 1989, p. 11.
Additional sources:
Harris 1991: Elisa D. Harris, ‘Towards a Comprehensive Strategy for Haiting Chemical and Biological
Weapons Proliferation,” Arms Control: Contemporary Security Po/icy, vol. 12, No. 2,
September 1991, p. 129, which cites statements of U.S. Government officials listing suspect
countries.
FiS 1993: Russian Federation Forejgn Inkdh’gence Serv/ce Report: A New Cha~~enge After the Cold
War: Pru/iferation of 14bapons of Mass Destruction, JPRS-TND-93-O07.
— ——
SOURCE: Compiled by Office of Ttinology Assessment, 1993, from various source. See text below.
Detailed listing of sources for table 2-A-1: David Fairhall, “Eleven Countries Defying Ban on Germ
Weapons,” The Guardian (London), Sept. 5, 1991, p. 1.; Elisa Harris, “Towards a Comprehensive
Strategy. . .,” op. cit., p. 129; Seth Carus, “ ‘The Poor Man’s Atomic Bomb’?’. . .,” op. cit., p. 25; and
Harvey J. McGeorge, “Chemical Addiction,” Defense and Foreign Affairs, April 1989, p. 17; Russian
Federation Foreign Intelligence service, op. cit., and U.S. Arms Control and Disarmamentt Agency,
“Adherence to and Compliance with Arms Control Agreements and The President’s Report to Congress
on Soviet Noncompliance with Arms Control” (Washington, DC: ACDA, January 14, 1993).
-——
Policy
Background 3
T
his chapter surveys the range of policy measures,
present and possible, that can be applied to the problem
of limiting the spread of weapons of mass destruction.
The chapter will also show that if these measures are to
have a chance of success, meeting two conditions will be
increasingly important. First, policymakers must engage the
greatest possible international cooperation for nonproliferation.
Second, as a prerequisite to obtaining that cooperation, they must
act to strengthen international norms, or rules of acceptable
behavior, against the acquisition and use of weapons of mass
destruction. To meet those two conditions, policymakers must
give the goal of nonproliferation higher priority than they did
during the Cold War.
It is by no means certain that the levels of international
cooperation needed to contain proliferation can be achieved.
Indeed, some analysts have argued that the inherently anarchic
nature of the international political arena will make nonprolifera-
tion efforts futile.1 Others agree that the levels of cooperation
needed to stop proliferation entail a transformation of interna-
tional politics, but they believe that with the end of the Cold War,
such a transformation has become feasible. 2
83
84 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
What follows is a menu from which the . actions to stop or discourage experts from
components of a coherent nonproliferation giving assistance.
strategy are likely to be chosen. The menu does If a proliferant nation nevertheless manages to
not attempt to organize the policy measures acquire or build facilities for a weapon program,
discussed into such a strategy, nor to assess another kind of obstacle is still possible, although
their feasibility y or promise. The second report of fraught with legal, political, and operational
this study will specify and analyze selected difficulties: taking military or other actions to
options in greater detail. disrupt or destroy the facilities.
Table 3-1 lists the primary international agree-
ments and U.S. national laws that underpin the
current nonproliferation regimes. The sections
9 Secrecy
Limiting the spread of nuclear-weapon knowl-
below summarize the measures already in effect
in these regimes and identify measures that could edge through secrecy has been a tool of U.S.
intensify or broaden them. The measures are policy since the first weapons were created during
discussed under four broad categories: World War II. Today, although the basic princi-
ples of nuclear materials production and nuclear
● imposing obstacles to those trying to acquire
weapon design and manufacture are well known
the weapons,
throughout the world, important engineering de-
● imposing disincentives to deter proliferants,
tails and technical shortcuts are still classified by
● offering rewards to increase the attractive-
the current nuclear powers. (Despite this secrecy
ness of voluntarily forgoing the weapons, and policy, nuclear-weapon states have at various
● offering global or regional security improve-
times helped other states develop the weapons:
ments to reduce perceived needs for the the United States cooperated in the development
weapons. of the British nuclear weapon program; the Soviet
An additional section addresses the special, Union helped China before the Sine-Soviet split
urgent problems posed by the breakup of the in 1959; French nuclear assistance may have
Soviet Union. advanced the Israeli weapon program; China
reportedly helped Pakistan; Israel reportedly
IMPOSING OBSTACLES TO helped South Africa, although in admitting its
PROLIFERATION past nuclear weapon program, South Africa has
Proliferant nations, particularly the less indus- denied this.)
trialized ones, generally need materials, equip- The basic knowledge needed to produce chem-
ment, and knowledge from abroad to acquire ical and biological weapon agents is much more
weapons of mass destruction. 3 Therefore, block- accessible than that for nuclear weapons. Secrecy
ing their access to such supplies can hinder their may help protect important details of incorporat-
progress. Methods of blocking access might ing the agents into more effective delivery
include: systems, but will not be of much use in blocking
proliferation of simpler weapons.
● use of secrecy to restrict the flow of knowl-
edge;
. export controls adopted by supplier nations; E National and Multilateral Export Controls
. diplomatic, military, or other actions to stop The potency of export controls as an obstacle
exports by third parties; or to proliferation depends on the degrees of:
s Assuming, of course, that they cannot simply buy complete weapona outright. No state yet is known to have bought a complete nuclear
weapo~ but with the breakup of the Soviet Union, this possibility has become a more pressing concern.
Chapter 3-Policy Background 85
Nuclear Nuclear Non-Proliferation Zangger Committee (Nuclear Ex- lnternational Atomic Energy Agency
Act, 1978 (NNPA) porters Committee), 1971 Statute, 1957
Foreign Assistance Act, 1961 London Club (adherents to Nu- Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Export Administration Act clear Suppliers Guidelines), 1976 (NPT), 1970
(EAA), 1979 (1990 version ve- Coordinating Committee on Multi- Treaty of Tlatelolco, 1968 (Latin
toed, provisions then sustained lateral Export Controls (CoCom), American nuclear-free zone)
by Executive Order, Act later 1949 Treaty of Rarotonga, 1986a (South
reinstated as interim measure) Pacific nuclear-free zone)
Atomic Energy Act, 1954
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Control Act of 1992
Iran-Iraq Non-Proliferation Act of
1992
Freedom Support Act of 1992 (aid
to former Soviet republics)
Chemical EAA Australia Group, 1984 Geneva Protocol for the Prohibi-
Chemical and Biological Weapons CoCom tion of the Use in War ofAsphyxiat-
Control and Warfare Elimina- ing, Poisonous or Other Gases,
tion Act, 1991 and of Bacteriological Methods
Weapons of Mass Destruction Con- of Warfare, 1925
trol Act of 1992 Chemical Weapons Convention
Iran-Iraq Non-Proliferation Act of (CWC), 1993
1992
Missiles Arms Export Control Act, 1976 Missile Technology Control None
EAA Regime (MTCR), 1987
Missile Technology Control Act,
1990
Weapons of Mass Destruction Con-
trol Act of 1992
Iran-Iraq Non-Proliferation Act of
1992
a The IJn/t~ States is not party to this treaty.
SOURCE: Congressional Research Service and OTA. For a more comprehensive listing of relevant U.S. legislation, see Zachary S. Davis and
Warren H. Donnelly, Non-Proliferation: A Compilation of Basic Dowments on the International, U.S. Statutory, and U.S. Executive Branch
components ofNon-Pro/iferat/on Po//cy(Washington, DC: Library of Congress, Congressional Research service, Dec. 18, 1990), CRS Report 91-85
RCO. See also Zachary S. Davis, Non-Pro//ferat/on Regimes: Po/&ies To Contro/ the Spread of Nuclear, Chem/ca/, and Bio/og/ca/ Wsapons and
A.f/ssi/es(Washington, DC: Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service, Feb. 18, 1993), CRS Report 93-237-ENR. See also Leonard S.
Spectorand Virginie Foran, Preventing kVeapons/+o/iferation; Shoukfthe Regimes be Combhwd?(Muscatine, IA: The Stanley Foundation, 1992).
8 6 Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
● proliferants’ dependence on outside resources share to foreign competitors under less stringent
(and their ability to work around blockages controls. In such cases, not only do the U.S. firms
of those resources); lose business, but other suppliers obviate any
● controllability of supplies having valid civil nonproliferation benefits that the blockage or
applications, but also usable for producing delay of sales might have had.
weapons of mass destruction; Another cost of controls may be imposed on
● participation in controls by all suppliers; and international development policy: tighter control
● effectiveness of each nation’s monitoring on dual-use technologies may not only hinder
and enforcement of controls. weapons proliferation, but it may also stunt the
As more nations advance technologically, the peaceful technological advancement of the im-
frost three of these factors are likely to decay. This porting countries. On the other hand, if controls
is especially the case for chemical and biological are narrowly targeted to countries of serious
technologies, which are already widely available. proliferation concern, countries that cooperate
In the case of nuclear technologies, although the with nonproliferation regimes should not find
number of potential suppliers has been growing, their peaceful development hindered.
many states have also been strengthening and
broadening their export control policies. There- NATIONAL EXPORT CONTROLS
fore, changes in the net availability of technology Export controls have been a major tool of U.S.
useful for nuclear weapon programs are hard to nonproliferation policy since the Atomic Energy
assess. Act of 1946 (superseded by the Atomic Energy
Despite the global spread of technology, export Act of 1954, itself amended several times since
controls will remain an important nonprolifera- then). Table 3-2 summarizes U.S. laws and
tion policy tool for many years, especially in the regulations directed at restricting exports from the
nuclear area. In addition to impeding prolifera- United States (or re-export of U.S.-originated
tion, export controls also supply information items) that could contribute to the proliferation of
important for detecting and monitoring it. Never- weapons of mass destruction or of missiles. Other
theless, both tightening export controls and ap- legislation, likely to be introduced in the 103rd
plying sanctions against foreign violators can
Congress, would further restrict proliferation-
have economic as well as political costs. These
related exports. A later table (3-4) describes
costs may be deemed worth the return in interna-
sanctions established under U.S. law against
tional security, but they should be acknowledged.
countries or companies that violate export laws
First, controls can somewhat restrict international
and regulations.
trade. Although the number of export denials is a
small fraction of all international transactions,
many transactions must be screened in order to MULTILATERAL EXPORT CONTROLS
detect those that ultimately are denied. Conse- The United States can help limit proliferation
quently, a wide range of businesses must keep by controlling its own exports and by trying to
informed about and comply with complex regula- block aid from other countries to proliferants.
tions and licensing procedures. Individual com- Nevertheless, there are too many possible foreign
panies may find themselves losing significant sources of materials, equipment, and knowledge
legitimate sales and the other business opportuni- for unilateral U.S. policies to control the problem
ties that might have followed those sales. More alone. Imposing restraints on proliferants re-
seriously in terms of U.S. jobs and exports, U.S. quires multilateral cooperation to have a
firms may also find themselves losing market chance of being effective. The United States has
—. —— ..
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Act of 1978 Tightens export controls by requiring IAEA full-scope safeguards as a condition
for exports of nuclear fuel and reactors.
Seeks to establish U.S. as reliable supplier for nuclear reactors and fuels to
nations adhering to nonproliferation policies.
Seeks to strengthen international controls over transfer and use of nuclear
materials and technology.
Directs the President to seek agreement from all exporting nations to require
recipients of nuclear technology and materials to accept lnternational Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) “full-scope” safeguards on all peaceful nuclear
activities.
Further specifies legal guidelines for regulation of nuclear commerce and
technical assistance.
Directs the President to publish procedures for the Commerce Department to
control U.S. exports of “dual-use” items that could be used for nuclear
explosives.
Defines jurisdiction of Departments of State, Energy, Defense, and Arms
Control and Disarmament Agency over nuclear exports.
Export Administration Act of 1979 and Commerce Department, after insulting with State and Defense, issues Export
Executive Order 12735 (Nov. 16, 1990) on Administration Regulations; its Bureau of Export Administration administers
Chemical and Biological Weapons Prolif- export licenses on controlled commodities (including nuclear, chemical, or
eration biological weapons-related or missile-related, as well as other items con-
trolled for national security or foreign policy purposes). Authority extends
primarily over dual-use goods.
EAA of 1979, the primary authority for U.S. export controls, expired Sept. 30,
1990; President Bush vetoed successor act but extended export control
authority by executive order under emergency power (conferred by the
International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977). In 1992 Congress
passed an interim renewal of the 1979 Act.
Chemical and Biological Weapons Con- Amended EAA to require Secretary of Commerce to establish and maintain “a
trol and Warfare Elimination Act of 1991 list of goods and technology that would directly and substantially assist a
foreign government or group in acquiring the capability to develop, produce,
stockpile, or deliver chemical or biological weapons” if licensing them would
be effective, and then keep a list of countries for which exporters must obtain
validated export licenses.
Arms Export Control Act of 1976 Authorizes State Department (through its Center for Defense Trade) to control
by licenses items (including chemical and biological warfare agents and
missiles) covered by International Traffic in Arms Regulations and U.S.
Munitions List. In contrast to Export Administration Regulations (above),
authority of this act extends mainly over sales of conventional weapons and
weapon components.
1 Many other IaWS ~r~s nonproliferation issues; this list only covers the m@r OneS.
SOURCE: OTA and Congressional Research Service (see table 3-1.)
88 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation Nuclear weapon state parties (now Including China, France, Russia, United Kingdom and
of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) (en- United States) agree not to transfer nuclear devices to any recipient, nor to assist any
tered Into force Mar. 5, 1970) non-nuclear-weapon State to make or acquire them,
All state parties agree not to transfer nuclear materials or related equipment to any
non-nuclear-weapon state unless the latter will accept International Atomic Energy
Agency safeguards (monitoring) over the materials.
Nuclear Suppliers’ Guidelines: To strengthen and better implement NPT export restrictions, seven NPT members who
Nuclear Exporters Committee were major nuclear suppliers (the Zangger Committee) agreed Informally in 1971 on a
(Zangger Committee) and Lon- list of nuclear technology items, the transfer of which would trigger application of IAEA
don Suppliers Group (London safeguards to ensure that the items were not used to develop nuclear explosives.
Club) Forming the “London Club,” in 1976,8 more nuclear supplier nations (including France,
not then an NPT member) joined those on the Zangger Committee and agreed on a set
of Nuclear Suppliers’ Guidelines, under which “trigger list” exports would further require
physical security for transferred items, acceptance of safeguards on facilities replicated
from London Club member designs, and prohibitions against retransfer of Items to third
parties; suppliers also agreed to “exercise restraint” in transfer of nuclear-sensitive
facilities, technologies, and weapons-usable materials.
Total of 27 nuclear suppliers agreed In April 1992 to an additional list of 65 categories of
dual-use items to be controlled.
Participating nations have adapted these controls voluntarily. There is no international
mechanism for monitoring and enforcement, but a Japanese-administered secretariat
in Vienna is now overseeing the application of the dual-use guidelines.
Australia Group Group of Industrialized nations agreed in 1984 to establish national controls on chemical
weapon agents and precursor chemicals that could be used to make them.
Group, then with 22 members, agreed in March 1992 to add to the control list organisms,
toxins, and equipment that might be used to make biological weapons.
Has no formal coordination, monitoring, or enforcement, but does have informal
agreements to share intelligence and notice of export denials.
Eleven other states apply some or all Australia group standards.
attempted to enlist other supplier countries in United States laws and regulations provide for
nonproliferation export controls. Table 3-3 sum- sanctions (e.g., criminal penalties or government
marizes the results of these efforts. procurement embargoes) against U.S. and foreign
companies that violate U.S. export regulations.
Short of criminal indictments, the United States
1 Blocking Exports From Third Countries
may also impose trade sanctions on foreign firms
The purpose of sanctions against suppliers to
that it believes are violating internationally agreed
proliferant nations is primarily deterrence, not
export controls.4 Some of the laws also provide
revenge. The hope of the policymakers is that
for trade sanctions against foreign individuals or
potential suppliers will not want to risk U.S.
companies that export items of types restricted by
sanctions just to get the business of the prolifer-
the United States (whether they are U.S. goods or
ants.
not) when the parties know that their exports
4
For example, the United States det ermined in 1992 that the Russian company Glavkosmos was violating the terms of the Missile
‘Ikehnology Control Regime by agreeing to sell cryogenic rocket motors to IndiIx it then imposed U.S. export and import sanctions both on
Glavkosmos and on the Indian Space Research Organhtion.
Chapter 3-Policy Background 89
Missile Technology Control Group of supplier nations agreed in 1987 not to transfer complete rocket systems or
Regime (MTCR) subsystems, or production facilities for them. Group now consists of 23 states, plus 2
“partners”; other states, including Argentina, Israel, Russia, and China, have separately
promised United States that they will abide by MTCR constraints.
Members also agree to restrain exports of other components, material, or technology that
would be useful in missile production.
Applies to missiles of range over 300 km; also applies to any missiles which the member
government judges to be intended for use with weapons of mass destruction.
Agreement is subject to no formal coordination, monitoring, or enforcement.
Coordinating Committee on Group of U.S. allies in 1949 agreed not to export listed items (including some related to
Multilateral Export Controls, missiles and weapons of mass destruction) to Communist countries.
(CoCom) Controls have been relaxed after collapse of the Soviet bloc.
CoCom is unique among supplier agreements in attempting to establish common
standards of enforcement of national export controls among the members; however, it
is ill-suited to control proliferation-sensitive technology because the very states that
were its targets-Communist and former-Communist states—would have to be
members of any nonproliferation export control regime.
CoCom might serve as model for other agreements.1
U.S.-foreign bilateral As noted above, in some cases the United States obtains bilateral agreement with
arrangements individual nations to abide by supplier group restraints.
State Department also issues diplomatic demarches, urging individual foreign govern-
ments to impose controls on specific exports of concern discovered by the United
States.
~ ~ IJnit~ States General A~unting Office, Export Corrtrok: rnu/ti/atera/ efforts to improve WIfOfCWXWf: /?e/10rf tO the sUbCO/?7~itkW ofl
/nterrrafiona/ Economic Policy and Trade, Committee orI Foreign /7e/ations (Washington, DC: GAO/NSlAD-92-167, May 18, 1992).
SOURCE: OTA and Congressional Research Service (see tabie 3-1 ).
contribute to proliferation. Some other supplier ● denial of most-favored nation trade status,
nations have legal sanctions comparable to those ● forfeiture of property and assets,
of the United States. ● denial of assistance from international insti-
In some cases, the U.S. laws provide for aid or tutions in which the United States partici-
trade sanctions (e.g., cutoffs of economic aid, pates,
military aid, or nuclear cooperation) against denial of arms transfers from the United
countries, rather than just companies or persons, States,
that supply the wherewithal for proliferation to ● denial of U.S. Export-Import Bank credits,
other countries. Finally, the President may also ● termination of codevelopment and copro-
nations, not just “persons’ ’-contained in legis- from sanctioned countries in U.S. ports.
lation proposed in the 102nd Congress and likely T h e President can already take several of these
to be reintroduced in the 103rd ares: actions at his own discretion under his powers to
5
See U.S. Congress, Congressional Research Service, Foreign Affairs and National Defense Divisiou Weapons Nonproliferation Policy
and Legislation: Z02nd Congress, 92-429 F (Washingto% DC: Congressional Research Service, July 3, 1991, Updated May 5, 1992).
90 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
Atomic Energy Act Requires cutoff of nuclear cooperation with states that transfer U.S.-supplied
nuclear materials or technology without U.S. permission.
Requires cutoff of nuclear cooperation with nuclear-weapon states that assist,
encourage, or induce a non-nuclear-weapon state to engage in activities that
involve nuclear materials and are significant for the making or acquisition of
a nuclear explosive device.
Glenn (1977) and Symington (1977) amend- Require President (unless he issues waiver) to cut off economic and military aid
ments (sections 669 and 670) to Foreign to countries that supply the wherewithal for enriching uranium or extracting
Assistance Act of 1961 (FAA) plutonium from spent nuclear fuel when all the recipient’s nuclear facilities are
not under IAEA safeguards.
Chemical and Biological Weapons Con- Requires President (unless he issues waiver) to deny U.S. Government
trol and Warfare Elimination Act of 1991 procurement or any U.S. imports from ‘foreign persons’ (individuals or firms)
knowingly and materially contributing to chemical or biological weapons
proliferation through the export of goods or technologies either covered by the
Act, or that would be covered by the Act if they were produced in the United
States.
MissileTechnology Control Act, 1990 (Title Denies U.S. Government contracts or export licenses to U.S. or foreign persons
XVII of the FY 1991 National Defense who improperly export missiles or major components;
Authorization Act, which added a chapter Denies U.S. Government missile-related contracts or export licenses to those
to the Arms Export Control Act and sec- who improperly export missile components, materials, or test and production
tions to the Export Administration Act of equipment;
1979) Provides for Presidential waivers of sanctions.
Iran-Iraq Nonproliferation Act of 1992 (A Extends sanctions to Iran that already apply to Iraq: a variety of sanctions
section of the FY 1993 Defense Authoriza- against individuals, companies, and countries who knowingly assist Iran or
tion Act ) Iraq to acquire weapons of mass destruction.
SOURCE: Adapted by OTA from Congressional Research Service, 1992 (See table 3-l),
conduct foreign policy. In November 1990, Presi- experts is another. Proliferants may hire the
dent Bush vetoed the revised Export Administra- services of foreign experts to work directly on
tion Act (since reinstated on an interim basis) that their weapon programs, to advise their own
would have mandated sanctions in some circum- personnel, or to train their own experts. Alterna-
stances. He nevertheless announced, in an Execu- tively they may send their own scientists and
tive Order dealing with chemical and biological engineers abroad for education and training
weapon proliferation, that the United States applicable to weapon programs.
would implement trade sanctions against viola- Supplier nations have some possibilities for
tors of U.S. law. In December 1990, the Bush control over such transfers of expertise. They can
administration issued its Enhanced Proliferation enforce secrecy laws that make it illegal for those
Control Initiative, which (among other things) with classified knowledge to transfer the infor-
formalized the President’s commitment to impose mation. They can make it illegal to aid or abet
sanctions without a statutory requirement to do proliferants (e.g., only since the Foreign Trade
so. and Payments Act of 1992 have German courts
been able to impose prison sentences on German
E Hampering Transfer of Expertise engineers abroad whose activities promote the
Exports of equipment and blueprints are one development or manufacture of nuclear, biologi-
way to transfer weapon technologies; export of cal, or chemical weapons; the U.S. Atomic
Chapter 3-Policy Background 91
Energy Act has long prohibited U.S. nationals Such a policy, however, would require putting
from sharing nuclear technology with others.) nonproliferation above other concerns about rela-
Another way to restrict the outflow of experts tions with those countries-it would amount to
is not to punish, but to reward. For example, treating those states as international pariahs.
Western nations are attempting to establish sci-
ence and technology centers to employ some of
the unemployed or underemployed former Soviet 9 Forcible Interference
weapon scientists who might otherwise be tempted
Perhaps the first clear example of a military
to emigrate to proliferant countries to work on
response to a proliferation threat was the Israeli
weapons of mass destruction.
bombing of the Iraqi Osirak nuclear reactor in
It is much more difficult to limit education of
foreigners in disciplines that could in principle be 1981. This step set back the Iraqi nuclear weapon
program but did not end it. The bombing did
applied to weapon development. For example,
nuclear physics, chemical engineering, and bio- cause Iraq do a better job of concealing it. In 1991,
chemistry may be useful for nuclear, chemical, or as part of Operation Desert Storm, the U. N.-
biological weapon programs, but they also have backed coalition against Iraq attacked and de-
fully legitimate civilian applications. Indeed, the stroyed facilities believed to be connected to Iraqi
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the Chemical mass-destruction weapon programs. The U.N.
Weapons Convention (CWC), and the Biological Security Council, as part of the cease-free it
Weapons Convention (BWC) all stress the obli- imposed on Iraq, required elimination of all such
gation of advanced countries to extend peaceful facilities (see below).
technical training to less developed countries. Other types of forcible interference besides
Brains are multiuse instruments. To bar foreign direct military attack might include:
nationals from educational institutions on the
grounds that they might someday work on weap-
ons would exact a high cost: it would damage the
openness in which scholarship thrives, and it
would deprive developing countries of legitimate
technical advancement. 6 On the other hand,
somewhat less draconian policies might be con-
sidered. First, governments could record and
analyze the subjects of research and study of
foreigners to see if suspicious patterns emerge for
particular countries. Such a measure might yield
additional information about proliferation activi-
ties, even if it did not itself serve as a means of
control. Second, the citizens of specific countries
could be singled out for denial of educational
In the wake of Operation Desert Storm, the U.N.
services if their countries were suspected of Security Council ordered the destruction of Iraqi
developing weapons of mass destruction, or if facilities connected with weapons of mass destruction.
their countries failed certain criteria, such as A nuclear facility at Al-Atheer was demolished on May
joining and adhering to the NPT or the CWC. 31, 1992.
s Since a sigrifkant proportion of U.S. college engineering teachers are of foreign origiQ U.S. education might also pay a price for such
a policy.
92 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
● sabotage of equipment or materials before the victim, ultimately lessening the obstacles to
transfer, either on the territory of its supplier his weapon program.
or in transit; Whether such an attack were internationally
● military interdiction of equipment or ma- sanctioned or not, it would also risk retaliation or
terial; even full-scale war by the target country against
● sabotage of equipment or materials after either the attacking nations or their allies.
import; or It seems unlikely that international authorities
● assassination of key personnel (explicitly will ever sanction covert activities like sabotage,
forsworn by the United States). let alone assassination, as means of nonprolifera-
While the latter measure is not appropriate for the tion. Almost by definition, covert actions are ones
United States, it is not unheard-of in international that states are unable or unwilling to defend
affairs. Canadian ballistics expert Gerald Bull, before the international community. Countries
who helped Iraq design its ‘‘supergun," was may decide to take such measures for the same
murdered in Brussels in 1990. Later, when U.N. compelling reasons they would use military force
inspectors requested the names of people in the unilaterally. In doing so, however, they risk
Iraqi nuclear program, Iraqi officials refused, exposure and loss of credibility as members of an
saying they feared these people might be targeted international community that opposes prolifera-
for assassination. tion on grounds of the common good.
The U.N. Security Council declared in January
1992 that the proliferation of weapons of mass
1 Imposing Obstacles: The Special Case of
destruction “. ., constitutes a threat to interna-
Iraq
tional peace and security. ” This phrasing, refer-
Export controls and other nonproliferation
ring to a key clause in the United Nations Charter,
makes it conceivable that sometime the Council measures-at least as administered in the 1980s—
might approve the use of military force to destroy failed to prevent Iraq from deploying and using
facilities for producing or storing weapons of chemical weapons or from trying to develop
mass destruction. Even so, such authority is likely nuclear and biological weapons as well as indi-
to be highly circumscribed, lest states interpret it genously produced ballistic missiles. In the wake
as license to attack others with impunity. More- of the war to liberate Kuwait, the United Nations
over the necessary steps of deliberation, approval, Security Council undertook to reverse the prolif-
and preparation would likely give considerable eration of these weapons to Iraq. As a condition
advance notice to the targeted state. Such an of cease-free, the Security Council decided that
internationally sanctioned strike would therefore Iraq should:
be poorly suited for missions requiring surprise. ● give up all chemical and biological weapons,
As a result, states believing their vital interests all stocks of agents, and all related subcompo-
to be at stake may decide to take unilateral nents, as well as all related research, devel-
military action against some cases of prolifera- opment, support and manufacturing facili-
tion. However, if such actions are not sanctioned ties;
by the international community-at least after the ● give up all ballistic missiles with a range
fact—they risk damaging the international con- greater than 150 km as well as related major
sensus on cooperative nonproliferation efforts. parts and repair and production facilities;
Nations committing the action may find them- ● agree not to acquire or develop nuclear
of mass destruction seem less than worthwhile. matic exchanges, he can encourage other nations
Should a country move toward acquiring the to restrain their exports. Likewise, he can threaten
weapons, or violate provisions of agreements not potential proliferants with economic or other
to acquire them, other countries may apply sanctions under his foreign policy powers. For
sanctions in an attempt to enforce compliance example, U.S. diplomatic initiatives played a
with nonproliferation norms.8 major role in the 1970s in persuading South Korea
Current U.S. laws and regulations stress eco- and Taiwan to reverse what seemed to be nascent
nomic, rather than other, sanctions toward poten- nuclear weapon programs. On the other hand, the
tial proliferants. The Treaty on the Non- effectiveness of legislated export controls and
Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non- sanctions depends on conscientious executive
proliferation Treaty, or NPT) implies a mild form branch enforcement; moreover, the laws usually
of economic sanction by tying cooperation in allow the President to waive sanctions at his
civilian nuclear technology for non-nuclear na- discretion. 9
tions to membership in the Treaty. In general, the In addition to his diplomatic responsibilities,
multilateral agreements attempting to limit prolif- the President also manages the U.S. intelligence
eration do not contain enforcement mechanisms, agencies. Intelligence plays a key role in identi-
except for referral to the U.N. Security Council. fying which nations should be subject to
In the case of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, special export limitations, in discovering the
however, the United States and the United Na- actual end uses of exported goods, and in
tions have gone well beyond the provisions of the monitoring the exports of other nations to
multilateral nonproliferation regimes in which potential proliferants. Along with Presidential
abstinence is voluntary. management, congressional oversight can help
Table 3-5 summarizes legislative bases for set U.S. intelligence priorities in these areas. (See
U.S. sanction policies against proliferant nations. box 3-A for discussion of the implications of
using intelligence in nonproliferation policy.)
Although the above discussions center on
the legislative bases for sanctions against sup-
pliers and proliferants, the executive branch 9 Stronger Diplomatic and Military
has wide latitude for discretion and leadership Responses
(or default) on those matters. In addition, the Beyond the economic sanctions listed above
President can act to mobilize international coop- (which could be applied to proliferant nations as
eration on nonproliferation. For example, only well as to suppliers), disincentives might include
one (the NPT) of the international, proliferation a variety of threatened responses that would make
related agreements listed in table 3-3 is a formal owning and using weapons of mass destruction
treaty subject to Senate advice and consent; the seem less attractive. The effectiveness of many
others are essentially executive agreements. of these threatened actions will depend, like
Through executive branch powers to conduct other nonproliferation measures, on the de-
foreign aid and trade policies, the President can gree of international cooperation behind them.
selectively apply what amounts to export controls The presence of a strong international norm
to specific countries. Through bilateral diplo- against acquiring or using the weapons will be
8
The IAEA Statute, the CWC, and the BWC all explicitly invite members to bring treaty violations to the attention of the U.N. Security
council.
9
See Carroll J. Doherty, “Foreign Policy Rules Riddled With Presidential Loopholes, ” Congressional Quarterly, Dec. 5, 1992, pp.
3753-3758. Presidents have frequently vetoed legislation that they believed infringed on their foreign policy prerogatives by limiting their
discretion.
— — — .
Solarz Amendment to FAA, 1985 Requires President (unless he issues waiver) to cut off aid to any country that
illegally exports, or attempts to export, from the United States nuclear
wherewithal that would “contribute significantly” to the ability of a country to
construct a nuclear device.
Pressler Amendment to the FAA, 1985 In the 1980s, Presidents Reagan and Bush waived (as allowed by congres-
sional amendments to the Act) the requirements of the Foreign Assistance
Act to cut off aid to Pakistan because of its nuclear weapons program;
In 1985, Congress added an amendment requiring the President to cut off aid
to Pakistan unless he declared in writing that “Pakistan does not possess a
nuclear explosive device and that the proposed U.S. assistance program will
reduce significantly the risk that . . . [it will]”; in 1990, the President stopped
such certifications, and aid stopped (although commercial military sales
continued).
Chemical and Biological Weapons Con- Requires President, on request of Chairman of House Foreign Affairs Commit-
trol and Warfare Elimination Act of 1991 tee or Senate Foreign Relations Committee, to report whether a specified
government has used chemical or biological weapons;
If use determined, mandates sanctions including: foreign aid cutoff, arms sales
and military financing cutoff, cutoff of U.S. Government credit or other
financial aid, cutoff of exports of any controlled national security goods and
technology;
If, within 3 months, President does not certify that country has ceased using the
weapons, provided assurance that it will refrain in the future, and allowed
outside inspections, additional sanctions are at least three of the following:
U.S. opposition to multilateral financial or technical aid, prohibition of U.S.
bank loans, ban on all exports (except agricultural), ban on imports originating
in the country, downgrading of diplomatic relations, suspension of aviation
rights;
Presidential waivers of the sanctions are possible.
SOURCE: Office of Technology Assessment, 1993.
especially important to getting that cooperation in ● adversaries equipping themselves with com-
the cases of those more severe measures. parable weapons or with effective defenses
Preparations to carry out such measures maybe against them,
● countervailing military alliances,
seen as efforts not only to deter further prolifera-
● diplomatic isolation,
tion, but to manage the consequences of prolifera-
● trade embargoes,
tion when it occurs (see section below, ‘‘When ● bilateral or multilateral promises to defend
Nonproliferation Fails”). Coercive--or threat-
or assist victims of aggression or use of
ened—responses to proliferant states include: weapons of mass destruction,
-—
Acquiring weapons of mass destruction is usually a clandestine activity. National intelligence agencies,
particularly those of the United States, are Iikely to have the most complete information on who is trying to get what
and who is selling what. However, publicly revealing this information increases the chances that the sources
supplying it will be shut off. This principle has several implications for formulating nonproliferation policy:
● it increases the temptation to emphasize unilateral or bilateral steps to block specific U.S. exports or foreign
transfers, as opposed to multilateral action, which requires broad sharing of information;
. it challenges intelligence agencies and policy makers to find ways to share findings with multilateral
organizations that monitor proliferation (e.g., the U.N. Special Commission on Iraq and the International
Atomic Energy Agency);
● itplaces a premium on increasing the transparency of international transactions and national weapons
programs by means of agreements among nations to report their actions to international bodies;
● itrequires establishing the ability of international bodies to synthesize and act upon the data coming from
transparency reports, unclassified sources, and individual national intelligence agencies;
● itforces intelligence agencies constantly to develop new sources of information when old sources are
compromised by the overt use of their product; and
● it necessitates the development of unclassified sources of information that can be used in international fora.
weapons.
In 1991, U. S., Coalition, and U.N. actions
toward Iraq illustrated a range of possible military
responses to proliferation. (Although eliminating
Iraqi weapons of mass destruction was not a direct
cause of the Coalition military intervention, that
goal did become an objective of the war and a
condition of cease-fire.) As noted in the section
above on imposing obstacles, one military re-
Under some circumstances, the international
community may impose economic sanctions on a sponse to proliferation is to attempt to destroy the
proliferant nation. The United Nations imposed an means of production of the weapons before they
embargo on Iraq after its invasion of Kuwait. Here, the can be fabricated and deployed. A second is to
Navy’s U.S.S. Pratt (in distance) has stopped a Turkish attempt to destroy weapons already built before
cargo ship bound for Iraq. The ship was found to they can be used. A third is to employ defensive
contain only foodstuff and was allowed to proceed,
measures to try to neutralize the weapons (either
Chapter 3-Policy Background I 97
10 N@~e]ess, tie rates of spread of, and the potential effectiveness of export controlsOIL necessary technolozes for nucleti, che~~,
and biological weapons, and for ballistic missiles vary. See Aaron Karp, Controlling Weapons Proliferation in the 1990s: The Role of Export
Conrrols (3%enhausen, Germany: Stiftung Wissenschaft und PolitK Forschungsinstitut Fuer Internatiomde Politik und Sicherheit, September
1992). See OTA background paper on technologies umicrlying weapons of mass destruction for discussions of the relevant technologies.
98 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
contain the indigenous forces of technology in the fruits of science to those who genuinely want to
Third World.ll use them for peaceful purposes.13
Moreover, coercive attempts to block prolifera- The best chance for nonproliferation in the
tion maybe perceived as unfair challenges, not as long term lies in building a consensus among
programs to promote international peace and potential proliferants that it is in their interests
stability. A Pakistani diplomat has complained to refrain jointly from acquiring the weapons.
that U.S. sanctions against Pakistan unfairly
single out his country but bring no pressure to
bear on India. He went on to threaten that REWARDS FOR ABSTENTION
sanctions could have the opposite of their in- Imposing obstacles to proliferation and threat-
tended effect: ening to punish potential proliferants are essen-
tially coercive strategies. Another strategy is
To add insult to injury, some elements in consensual: offer benefits in exchange for self-
Congress are focusing on the perfectly legitimate -restraint. One such trade-support of peaceful
commercial sale of military spare parts to Paki-
applications of atomic energy in exchange for
stan. Achieving this short-sighted objective would
cripple the operational functioning of the Pakistan forgoing nuclear weapons-was promised in the
armed forces and might impel the government of NPT. Benefits offered in return for consent not to
Pakistan to pursue other military purchases and acquire weapons of mass destruction might in-
resume development of its nuclear program.12 clude economic inducements, such as:
(It should be noted that there are no indications ● financial assistance,
that Pakistan has suspended its nuclear program, . technical assistance, and
which has very likely already produced weapons, ● exemptions from nonproliferation export
1 I Brahma Chelaney, ‘‘South Asia’s Passage to Nuclear Power, “ International Security, vol. 16, No. 1, summer 1991, p. 53.
12 M S=U N~~ &pUty chief of mission of Embassy of PakistaQ letter to the Washington Post, July 16, 1992, p. A-23.
13 Gh~~@~ tat of s~hof ~y25, 1~, ~m theP&~tun Ti~s of ~y26, 192, pp. 1-2, u mpfited fiJPRS-TND-92-017,
June 3, 1992, p. 12.
Chapter 3–Policy Background 99
● broader regional or global arms control ingly a political one. The choice will turn on
arrangements that reduce conventional weapon whether a nation views the possession of such a
threats, capability as being, on balance, in its national
● foreign commitments to come to the defense interest.14
of or otherwise assist a nation if it is attacked The conclusion that, in the long run, motivations
(with or without weapons of mass destruc- are key still holds true. It applies even more
tion), strongly to chemical and biological weapons than
● regional security arrangements that more to nuclear weapons, because technologies for the
broadly reduce the chances of war with local former are so much more accessible. Ultimately,
adversaries, or nonproliferation policies will have to find ways
● global security arrangements that reduce the of showing leaders still desiring weapons of
chances of attack from regional or extrar- mass destruction either that their goals can be
egional adversaries. met in other ways or that the price of the
weapons route is too high.
Following a general discussion of the question
Factors that make it difficult to persuade some
of addressing motivations for proliferation, this
nations to forgo weapons of mass destruction
chapter section addresses each of these measures
include:
in turn.
● the perceived value of the weapons,
has been partially successful in the past. More ● the entrenchment of proliferation in conven-
14 U.S. Cowess, Oftlce of lkchnology Assessment (Washington DC: U.S. GPO, 1977), P. 11.
100 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
15 Rwmt n~cle~ prol~er~(s ~Ve alSO found it prudent to remain secretive about their weaponprO~u, Wtile Cle@ @@ pfide ~ tie
nuclear technology underlying those programs.
lb h a spech on Apr. 2, 1990, Hussein declared:
Whoever threatens us with the atomic bomb, we will annihilate him witlh the binary chemical. . .we will make the fire eat up
half of Israel if it tries to do anything against Iraq.
Baghdad INA, translation in FBIS-NEW-9M64, Apr. 3, 1990, p. 36.
When Western countries criticized this threa~ many Arab spokesmen came to Hussein’s defense, saying that Britain and the United States
were trying to deny Iraq legitimate means of seLf-defense. For example, the Kuwaiti foreign ministry was quoted as saying:
Kuwait while deploring this campaign and its exposed intentions, sides with brotherly Iraq in the right to defend its safety and
security of its people using all available means.
Kuwait KUNA quoting Kuwait News Agency, FBIS-NES-9M69, Apr. 10, 1990, p. 21.
17 see w. se~ c~$ “ ‘The Poor Man’s Atomic Bomb?’ Biological Weapons in the Middle East” (Washington, DC: The Washington
Institute for Near East Policy, Policy Papers No. 23, 1991), p. 11.
Chapter 3-Policy Background I 101
ments of military advantage for dominating on all their nuclear facilities (fill-scope safe-
military rivals. guards), both have refused to join the NPT
Among delivery systems, ballistic missiles are because it is discriminatory. On the other hand,
perceived as another symbol of technological and the overwhelming majority of the world’s nations
military prowess. The chances seem slim of have been willing to accede to the NPT as
building an international consensus that the status non-nuclear-weapon states.
of current ballistic missile powers should be The international community reached an un-
‘‘grandfathered’ like that of nuclear-weapon usual consensus on the unfitness of Iraq to own
states but that further missile proliferation should nuclear weapons. But neither Iraq nor India nor
be illegitimate, More likely, although not a most other nations accept what they see as the
near-term prospect today, would be a global ban
18
implication that all but the five acknowledged
on these delivery systems. If they are instituted nuclear powers are immature nations unqualified
at all, voluntary agreements to forgo or reduce to handle the responsibilities of nuclear guardian-
ballistic missiles will probably be in the context ship. 20 Thus, the nuclear aspirants are not likely
of regional security and arms control arrange- to be persuaded by arguments to the effect that
ments rather than in a global nonproliferation only grown-ups should have nuclear weapons.
regime. A second perception of double standards stems
from the variability of past U.S. nonproliferation
DOUBLE STANDARDS policies. From the U.S. point of view, failing to
One problem in persuading aspiring ballistic make serious efforts to block Israeli acquisition of
missile owners to forgo them is that they are being nuclear weapons or to enforce sanctions against
asked to accept an international double standard: Pakistan in the 1980s in response to its nuclear
the advanced powers now deploying ballistic program reflect the dilemmas of conflicting
missiles have the right to do so, but newcomers to policy objectives. From the point of view of some
the club are not welcome. 19 Nuclear nonprolifera- other countries, however, it reflects a willingness
tion efforts suffer to some extent from the same to look the other way when the proliferant is a
problem. India has complained the most vigor- friend of the United States—to select what
ously that it is hypocritical of the United States proliferation is acceptable.
and the other nuclear powers to deny the rights of The history of double standards, real or per-
non-nuclear nations to acquire the weapons with- ceived, will in some cases be an obstacle to
out giving up their own. Although Argentina and international consensus on nonproliferation. F u r -
Brazil are moving toward participation in the thermore, enhancement of the nuclear nonpro-
Treaty of Tlatelolco (making Latin America a liferation regime may see the emergence of a
nuclear-free zone) and have accepted Interna- triple standard: a way must be found to deal
tional Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards with the three undeclared nuclear powers,
18 For a detail~ propos~ of such a b~ see FA.S. Public Intere$t Report, vol. 45, No. 3, May/June 1992, pp. 1-18. SW dso Wton Frye.
“Zero Ballistic Missiles,” Foreign Policy, fall 1992, pp. 3-20.
19 in addition, curbs on missile technology are complicated by its relationship to space technology. India, fOr example, tis boti space-launch
and ballistic missile programs. It has expressed strong resentment at U.S, attempts to block foreign exports to its space program that might also
be useful to its missile program.
ZO ~ a Speech to P&ktani nuclw scientists and engineers, the President of pakistiuI noted tit
The bombs that devastated Hiroshima and flattened Nagasaki were not hatched by the “unstable countries” and the
“irresponsible minds’ of the Third World. .
From text of speech by President Ghulam Ishaq Khan in The Pakisrtzn Times, May 26, 19!92, pp. 1-2, reprinted in JPRS-TND-92-017, June
3, 1992, p. 11.
102 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
India, Pakistan, and Israel. Will they be nuclear option themselves because they enjoyed
treated as de facto nuclear states, or will they the nuclear protection of the United States. Not
be asked to disarm themselves of weapons they enjoying such an explicit commitment, Israel
do not admit having? developed its own nuclear deterrent against its
vastly more numerous (and Soviet-armed) Arab
DOMINO EFFECTS adversaries. North Korean nuclear nonprolifera-
Proliferation occurs in the context of interna- tion negotiations, stalled as of this writing, had
tional conflict. China wanted nuclear weapons been taking place in the context of a broader
because the United States and the Soviet Union political and military modus vivendi between
had them. India pursued them because China had North and South Korea.
them. Pakistan, aided by China, developed them Considering the special dangers that weapons
to counter the Indian threat. Israel’s adversaries of mass destruction present, it might be desirable
want to catch up with Israel. In the latter case, to treat their proliferation separately from other
Israel’s adversaries also have pursued chemical, political and security issues. In the current regions
and probably biological, weapons in part to try of proliferation concern, this compartmentaliza-
counter the Israeli nuclear advantage-as illus- tion may not be possible. Agreements to forgo
trated by Saddam Hussein’s April 1990 threats to weapons of mass destruction may depend on
use his “binary” weapon. Iran sought chemical complementary agreements to reduce perceived
weapons in response to Iraqi attacks during their conventional military threats.
war, and it may be seeking nuclear weap-
ons.
In short, some countries might not be talked out
1 Economic Incentives To Forgo Weapons
of pursuing one kind of weapon of mass destruc- of Mass Destruction
tion unless they are convinced that their enemies
will verifiably renounce not only that kind, but FINANCIAL AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE
others as well. (In some cases, even that may not Linking technical or financial assistance to
suffice: even if Israel’s adversaries were to nonproliferation began with President Eisen-
renounce chemical and biological weapons, it hower’s 1953 Atoms for Peace Plan. That plan
seems unlikely that Israel will give up its nuclear proposed the creation of the International Atomic
weapons unless its general military security is Energy Agency, whose mission would be to make
assured.) peaceful applications of atomic energy globally
available while ensuring that nuclear materials
CONVENTIONAL MILITARY RIVALRIES were not diverted to weapons. In the NPT, parties
Weapons of mass destruction are frequently agree to foster peaceful applications of nuclear
seen as potential compensation for inferior con- energy for peaceful purposes, “especially in the
ventional military firepower or personnel. This territories of non-nuclear-weapon States Party to
was the case for the United States and NATO the Treaty, with due consideration for the needs of
during most of the Cold War. 21 Some vulnerable the developing areas of the world”; they also
countries-such as Germany, Japan, and South undertake to ensure availability of the benefits of
Korea--clearly found it easier to forgo the peaceful nuclear explosions to non-nuclear-
ZI me idea that w~tem superiority in conventional military technology-rather than U.S. nuclear w~pom+odd counter W-W Wt
numerical advantage was emphasized mainly in the later years of the Cold War, especially as discomfort with the idea of extended nuclear
deterrence grew. Until the very end, the United States declined to follow the Soviet example (however disingenuous it might have been) of
declaring that it would not be the fiist to use nuclear weapons.
Chapter 3-Policy Background 103
22 pea=~ nuclew explosiom (PNE) were once a major bone of contention in nonproliferation debates, since there is no difference iII
principle between a device that could create a peaceful nuclear explosion and one that would create a destructive one. There now appears to
be little political support in the world for maintaining the PNE option.
23 me BWC Second Review Conference in 1986 recommended measures for increasing such cooperation. However, the aUthOr of a 1991
book on the BWC asserts that no concrete results have been obtained:
The recommendations [of the Second Review Conference] have served only as a formal recognition of the preoccupations of
developing countries at the review conference.
Barend ter Haar, The Future of Biological Weapons (New York, NY: Praeger, 1991), p. 37
— —
24 ‘f’he T~~~ of R~~t~nga creates a nuclem.free zone in tie Souti Pacific. ~ 1993, Waler I-J.N. auspices, a groUp Of eXpWtS k tO Chft a
treaty for the ‘denuclearization’ of Africa. This effort seems to have a better chance of success than proposals, previously studied by the United
Nations, for a Middle East nuclear-weapon-free zone. See Jon Brook Wolfsthal, “Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones: Coming of Age?,” Arms
Control To&y, vol. 23, No. 2, March 1993, pp. 3-9.
25 For discussion of confidence-building measures and roll-back, see Gregory F. Gk “Nuclear Proliferation Contingency Planning:
Ensuring Global Ordedr In a More Proliferated World,” CNSN Paper, vol. 4, No. 2 (McLeaxL VA: The Center for National Security
Negotiations (SAID)).
Chapter 3-Policy Background 105
free zone; in November 1992 the U.N. General that it would not use nuclear weapons against any
Assembly again overwhelmingly endorsed this non-nuclear-weapon state party to the NPT (or a
proposal, but India voted against it.26 India has comparably binding international agreement) ex-
repeatedly stated that it will consent to limits on cept in the case of an attack on the United States
its own nuclear weapon program only in the or its forces or allies by such a state allied to a
context of global nuclear disarmament. nuclear-weapon state or associated with one in the
Onsite verification measures, such as those attack.
provided for under the CWC, maybe necessary to In the NPT, the parties (including nuclear-
build sufficient confidence in compliance among weapon states) agreed to ‘‘. . pursue negotiations
the participants
27
in mutual nonproliferation re- in good faith on effective measures relating to
gimes. Efforts to strengthen verification of cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date
compliance with the NPT or the BWC will have and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on
to take into account the difficulties of balancing general and complete disarmament . . .’ The
costs and possible benefits from onsite inspec- United States and Russia have each declared that
tions. For further discussion of the issues, see the they have removed most tactical nuclear weapons
appendix to this chapter. from deployment and that they will destroy most
of those; they have also agreed to deep reductions
ASSURANCES FROM EXISTING OWNERS in their strategic nuclear forces; they have contin-
In 1968 the U.N. Security Council passed a ued a moratorium on nuclear testing; the United
resolution recognizing that nuclear aggression or States has ceased production of new nuclear-
the threat of nuclear aggression would create a weapon material and Russia has indicated it will
situation requiring immediate action by the Secu- do likewise. Other proposed measures for cutting
rity Council, notably its permanent members. In back the weapon programs of the nuclear-weapon
addition, the United States, the Soviet Union, and states have included a comprehensive nuclear test
the United Kingdom declared that they each ban and formal, verified cessation of production
intended to seek immediate Security Council of nuclear weapon fissile materials.
action to assist any non-nuclear-weapon state If the spirit of cooperation between the two
party to the NPT that was the object of nuclear nuclear superpowers continues, even more dra-
aggression or threats. Such positive security matic steps are conceivable. The United States
assurances could be strengthened in various and Russia might engage in yet another round of
ways. For example, the permanent members of nuclear force reductions, this time bringing
the Security Council could each promise to seek France, Britain, and China into the process. All
Security Council action not only in cases of the nuclear powers might put even their weapons
nuclear aggression, but also in cases involving into “trust’ for the United Nations, pledging
chemical or biological weapons. Or, the Security never to use them except in a case approved by the
Council could formally promise in advance to Security Council. Although the nuclear genie
come to the aid of victims of such aggression. may never be fully rebottled, radically new
In 1978 the United States issued a policy institutions for containing it are no longer un-
statement providing negative security assurances: thinkable.
26 For fimssion of a r~e of South Asian nuclear arms control proposals that would address situations anywhere from denuclti=tion
to ambiguity to declared nuclem weapon status, see Steven Philip Coheu “Policy Implications, ‘‘ in Cohe% cd., Nuclear Proliferation in South
Asia: the Prospects for Arms Conrrol (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991), pp. 339-371.
27 Such m~ms might also build over-cotildence: successful concealment of violations at (or away from) inspected sites co~d mislmd
states to conclude that others are complying with an agreement when they are not.
106 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
There are other examples of assurances from resolved by placing all nuclear weapons in the
owners. The United States in 1969 voluntarily hands of a supranational organization and estab-
eliminated its own biological weapons; several lishing a universal prohibition against national
other nations followed suit. The Convention on nuclear arsenals. However, such a world order
the Prohibition of the Development, Production, still seems remote. Some argue the nuclear
and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) proliferation problem cannot be solved unless
and Toxin Weapons and their Destruction (Bio- nuclear disarmament is taken even further-to
logical Weapons Convention, or BWC) became total elimination of all nuclear weapons.28
effective in 1975. Parties to the Geneva Protocol Threatening to respond to chemical weapon
of 1925 agreed not to use ‘‘asphyxiating, poison- attacks with nuclear retaliation would foster the
ous, or other gases” or ‘‘bacteriological meth- idea that nuclear weapons are legitimate instru-
ods” in warfare. (The United States ratified the ments of war, and that those lacking them are less
Protocol in 1975, at that time reserving the right than full players in the international arena.
to retaliate with chemical weapons against states Attempting such deterrence would also have the
not observing the Protocol; it has rescinded that effect of elevating the perceived significance of
reservation, effective with the signing of the chemical weapons, implying that they are in some
CWC in January 1993.) The United States and way equivalent to nuclear weapons as instruments
Russia have agreed to destroy their stocks of of mass destruction. At the same time, a nation
chemical weapons and, under the CWC, agree to contemplating the use of chemical weapons might
forgo such weapons permanently. not believe that the United States would actually
resort to so disproportionate a response as nuclear
REDUCING THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF retaliation.
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION Biological weapons, effectively administered,
Nuclear nonproliferation policy entails per- could turn out to kill as many people as nuclear
suading non-nuclear countries that they do not weapons. Nevertheless, retaining a nuclear retali-
need nuclear weapons. One way to reduce the atory option against their use could have effects
appeal of nuclear weapons is to retire them to the akin to those of trying to use nuclear weapons to
background of international relations, to dissoci- deter chemical weapon use: that is, trying to apply
ate them from perceptions of power and status. nuclear deterrence to biological weapons could
This is likely to be a difficult task for those who reinforce the idea that they are the ‘‘poor man’s
already possess the weapons. In the U.S. case, atomic bomb,” and it might just as well stimulate
de-emphasizing the international role of nuclear as discourage some countries from trying to
weapons would logically mean weakening the acquire them.
credibility and utility of U.S. nuclear deterrence.
That result might in turn prompt calls in some BROADER ARMS CONTROL
nations to reconsider their decisions to rely on As noted in ch. 2 and earlier in this discussion
U.S. deterrence rather than acquire their own of nonproliferation incentives, nations now sus-
nuclear weapons. On the other hand, in a world of pected of seeking one type of weapon of mass
generally lower perceived nuclear threat, such destruction are engaged in arms competitions
nations may now feel less dependent on U.S. with neighbors seeking not just the same type of
nuclear deterrence for their security. In the long weapon, but sometimes other types and some-
run, the nuclear deterrence paradox could be times conventional weapons; this is true in the
28 s=, for ~~ple, Jowph Rotblat, et al., (eds.), A Nuclear-Weapon-Free World: Dem”rable? Feasible? (Boulder, CO: %’estview mss,
1993).
Chapter 3-Policy Background 107
Middle East, South Asia, and the Koreas. Limit- DEFENSE COMMITMENTS
ing external threats of whatever character may U.S. alliance commitments to Germany and
reduce incentives for acquiring weapons of mass other NATO countries technically capable of
destruction. For example, North and South Korea building nuclear weapons, as well as to Japan and
have discussed verification of non-nuclear status South Korea, probably contributed to their deci-
in the context of wider arms control arrangements sions not to acquire nuclear weapons. In the
between the two sides. future, the United States, alone or in concert with
The choices are among trying to negotiate other nuclear powers, might continue to offer a
regimes that limit various combinations of: conventional or a nuclear deterrent umbrella to
help persuade some countries to forgo the nuclear
● a single type of weapon of mass destructions,
option. Offering a credible conventional deter-
● all types,
rent, however, may be complicated by the world-
● delivery systems, and
wide reduction and return to the United States of
● conventional armaments and troop levels.
U.S. military forces due to the Cold War’s end.
Casting the arms control net more narrowly may Offering a nuclear umbrella implies maintaining
simplify negotiations. Argentina and Brazil seem deployed nuclear forces that could credibly be
to be an example of two nations arriving at used in retaliation for a nuclear attack on a third
reciprocal decisions not to develop nuclear weap- party .29 It also would expose the United States to
ons and to agree to some verification measures for the risk that the state it retaliated against would
mutual reassurance. Elsewhere—for example the escalate to a nuclear attack against the United
Middle East—the pursuit of weapons of mass States. Another problem with the maintenance of
destruction may be too deeply embedded in the such forces is that doing so would underscore the
regional security problem and consequent across- special status that nuclear weapons confer, and
the-board arms competition: renunciation of nu- may contradict efforts to lower the profile of
clear or chemical arms may not come without nuclear weapons in international politics. The
reductions in conventional military threats. existence of either conventional or nuclear de-
An important stimulus for limiting regional fense commitments by the United States also
arms races could be collective agreements by risks persuading some countries of the need to
the major suppliers of conventional weapons develop their own nuclear forces as a counter-
to restrain their exports. The United Nations has deterrent to external intervention in regional
established an international registry of arms affairs. 30
transfers, in the hope that greater transparency
will lead to greater restraint. The five permanent REGIONAL SECURITY AND ARRANGEMENTS
members of the U.N. Security Council, who also The long-run success of nonproliferation ef-
account for the great majority of global m forts is likely to depend in part on the reduction of
sales, have held talks to discuss the possibility of security threats used to justify acquisition of
limiting sales to the Middle East, but have weapons of mass destruction. Some analysts
reached no agreement. (In the fall of 1992, China argue that regional conflicts are the ‘‘root cause’
withdrew from these talks to protest the U.S. sale of proliferation, and therefore that settling re-
of F-16 aircraft to Taiwan.) gional security problems is a sine qua non for
29 Some analysts arWe that START-reduced U.S. strategic nuclear forces will more than suffke fOr this purpose, while otiers believe tit
smaller yield tactical nucleax weapons would be more credible.
30 some ~ve ~W~ tit ~ Ufited States sho~d develop nucl~ w~po~ spec~y ~or~ for limited rnilitaly pUpOSeS h OthelWiSC3
conventional conflicts; however, arguments that the United States is entitled to special, advanced nuclear weapons, while others should have
none at all, are not likely to have wide international appeal.
108 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
containing it. The security problems in each safeguards in 1992. It allowed some inspections
region of proliferation concern are different; each in 1992, but in March 1993 it denied further IAEA
will require specially tailored arrangements if the access and announced its withdrawal from the
parties are to trust one another enough to halt or NPT. After discussions with the United States in
reverse their military competitions. Such arrange- June 1993, North Korea agreed to postpone its
ments may consist of combinations of political NPT withdrawal, but at that time had not yet
agreements, economic steps, military confidence- agreed to the special inspections requested by the
building measures, and arms controls. IAEA.
Middle East—Achieving a nuclear-weapons- Former Soviet Union and Europe—
free zone in the Middle East would probably Ukrainian officials have promised in principle to
entail extensive peace arrangements between give up the former Soviet nuclear weapons on
Israel and its Arab neighbors. The current Middle their territory. But recently they have tied imple-
East peace process aims in this direction. Israelis menting that promise to, among other things, the
may see their undeclared nuclear weapons as the kinds of security guarantees they have from (or
ultimate guarantor of Israeli deterrence against against) their neighbors (chiefly Russia). See
elimination of their vulnerably small nation by its chapter 2 for discussions of concerns surrounding
more populous neighbors. At least some Arab the breakup of the Soviet Union and see below in
states may see Israeli nuclear and other weapons this chapter for a range of policies for limiting
of mass destruction as fully sufficient justifica- proliferation from that region. Several European
tion for obtaining the same.31 As the Iran-Iraq war states are technically capable of producing nu-
and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait show, disputes clear weapons, but have renounced the right to do
among several Middle East states go beyond the so. In the long run, their adherence to their
Arab-Israeli conflict. decisions may depend on their trust in regional
South Asia—Pakistan and India have both security arrangements in a post-Cold-War world.
ethnic and territorial disagreements with one
another. China and India, beyond their own GLOBAL SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS
territorial disputes, rival one another as regional In many cases, regional groupings have been
great powers. As noted above, Pakistan has unable to establish workable security arrange-
proposed a South Asian nuclear-free zone, but ments on their own. The United Nations could
India insists not only that China would have to step in either instead of, or in support of, regional
participate, but that all nuclear powers would organizations-as it has recently in the Middle
have to complete nuclear disarmament. East, Cambodia, and Africa. Realization of last-
Northeast Asia—Until recently North and ing security arrangements in the other regions
South Korea seemed to be making some progress mentioned above will depend on cooperation
toward reconciliation between their deeply hos- from extraregional nations. In some cases, agree-
tile regimes. At the end of 1991, they signed a ment not to interfere might be enough; in others,
“Joint Declaration for a Non-Nuclear Korean agreement to provide collective security 32 assur-
Peninsula.” In that context, North Korea (a 1985 ances may be necessary. Such cooperation will
signatory of the NPT) finally concluded an require that the world’s great powers—
overdue agreement with the IAEA for nuclear particularly the permanent members of the U.N.
31 For discussion of the ~d~e &t nuclm problem, see United Nations, Establishment of a Nuclear Weapons-Free ~ne in the Region
of the Middle East, Report of the Secretary-General A/45/435, Oetober 1990.
32 ~ ~ ~ontm~ c ~m~wtive security” implies the response of the international eannmnity to aggression by one of its members, not simply
an allianm of some states against other states.
Chapter 3-Policy Background I 109
3 3 some IE3VC propoaed that the ~t m~ “p of the Security Council be enlarged to include other great pow~ ecially
~Y, JapU ad Nti. On the one hanL such an expanded membership would add legitimacy to Seeurity Council actions; on the other,
the larger the Council beeomcs, the more unwieldy will be its opcratiom impairing its ability to respond rapidly to emerging crises Should
the veto rights now held by the current pcamanent members be extended to new permanent membera, the Council might be less able to achieve
the unanimity of its permanent members requked for Council action.
~ ~ton B. ~, William J. Perry, and John D. Steinbruner, op. cit., footnote 2, p.7.
35 Ibid., pp. 3&37.
36 ~ ~m c~ter, op. cit., foomote 1.
110 ! Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
U.S. and international security .37 Modifying U.S. For example, the current nuclear states could
force plans and structures to cope with the implicitly or explicitly acquiesce in the deploy-
possible further proliferation of weapons of ment of nuclear weapons by India, Pakistan,
mass destruction is unquestionably an impor- Israel, or Ukraine. They could then offer the
tant task for U.S. policymakers. Recognizing newcomers to the nuclear club help in developing
this fact, the Department of Defense has plans to stabilizing doctrines of deployment and deter-
create a new office of Nuclear Security and rence. The help might be technical assistance to
Counterproliferation to be headed by an Assistant reduce the vulnerability of their nuclear forces to
Secretary of Defense. a disarming first-strike from others. Or, it might
As noted above in the section on creating take the form of technology for tightening cen-
disincentives for proliferants, some policies can tralized control over the weapons themselves and
simultaneously serve the purposes of deterring for preventing unauthorized use, theft, or acci-
acquisition of the weapons in the first place and dents. Promoting safer deployment of weapons of
of deterring or militarily countering their use mass destruction would be inconsistent with a
when nonproliferation fails. It is important to stated goal of a global ban on possession-as in
note, however, that some preparations to mitigate the cases of chemical and biological weapons.
the consequences of proliferation might also But in the case of nuclear weapons, the policy
exacerbate the process of proliferation. might ‘‘grandfather’ nuclear arms deemed to be
One can make deterrent counter-threats to irreversibly deployed, as the NPT does those of
dissuade the proliferant from using his weapons. the United States, Russia, Britain, France, and
Analysts have variously hypothesized that Iraq China.
failed to use its chemical weapons against coali- A policy of acceptance might mitigate postpro-
tion troops because it feared U.S. retaliation in liferation risks, but it would also tend to encour-
kind, U.S. resort to nuclear weapons, or escalation age further proliferation by showing that success-
of the conventional attack to the point of eliminat- ful evasion of the obstacles to proliferation can
ing the Hussein regime; others suggest Iraq just eventually lead to legitimacy as a member of the
calculated that there was no useful application nuclear club.38 Technical assistance on safety
available for chemical weapons. Some argue that and security measures could also lead the new
the possibility of Israeli nuclear retaliation de- nuclear power to integrate its weapons more
terred Iraq from using Scud missiles with chemi- tightly into its military forces, keep them at higher
cal warheads against Israel. levels of alert, and think of them as more usable
Noncoercive measures to try to manage the instruments of force. And making the weapons
consequences of proliferation are also conceiva- more secure from preemptive first strikes from
ble. Given a case in which weapons of mass their neighbors would also make them more
destruction are deployed despite U.S. wishes to secure from a U.S. or multinational preemptive
the contrary, it would be in U.S. interests to strike.
minimize the resulting dangers.
37 For discussion of boti nonprowe~tion measures and proliferation mitigation m&WIR s, see Giles, op. cit., foomote 25.
36 @ mer @ ~e problem of encouraging further proliferation would be to permit a one-time-only expansion of the nucl= club. ‘f’he
U.N. Security Council could set a deadline for states to declare themselves nuclear-weapon states, after which it would treat all further nuclear
proliferation--including any existing but undeclared programs-t o be a threat to international peacs jus@ing a Council inspection and
eliminau“on program. See David Kay, ‘‘The IAEA-How Can It Be Strengthened?, ’ Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars,
Conference, “Nuclear Proliferation in the 1990s: Challenges and Opportunities,” Dec. 1-2, 1992.
—.
39 Several of the additional steps listed below were advocated by Senators Nunn and Lugm in December 1992; s~ Sm NW ad Richd
Lugar, “Still a Soviet l%rea~” Washington Post, Dec. 22, 1992, p. A-21. For a comprehensive collection of policy options for dealing with
the nuclear risks posed by the breakup of the Soviet UnioU see GTaham AllisorL Ashton B. Carter, Steven E. Miller, and Philip Zelikow, (eds.),
Cooperative Denuclean”zacion: From Pledges To Deeds, CSIA Studies in International Security No. 2 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University,
Center for Science and International Affairs, 1993); for discussion of U.S. nongovernmental efforts toward verified dismantlement of nuclear
weapons, see Federation of American Scientists and Natural Resources Defense Council, Report of the Fourth lnrernafional Workshop on
Nuclear WarheadElim”nution and Nonproliferation, held in wmhingto~ D. C., Feb. 26-27, 1992 (Washington DC: Federation of American
Scientists, 1992); see also Christopher Paine and Thomas B. CochrarL “Ver@ing Dismantlement” Arms Control Today, VO1. 22, No. 1,
January/February 1992, pp. 15-17.
112 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
● The United States could propose internation- otherwise be tempted to accept foreign weapons
40
ally monitored storage or disposition of work to earn a living. Joint projects between
highly enriched uranium and plutonium U.S. and former Soviet laboratories and firms
from dismantled nuclear weapons in both the might be another contribution to that goal.
former Soviet Union and the United States. Efficient enforcement of laws and regulations
● The United States could urge accelerated may help.41 Overall improvement in the econo-
implementation of START strategic nuclear mies of the states that emerged from the former
arms reductions; it could ratify promptly the Soviet Union is probably the best hope for
START II agreement and also urge rapid discouraging this kind of emigration.
implementation of those reductions.
● The United States and others can offer
diplomatic support and, where appropriate, ~ Controlling Export of Critical Information,
financial assistance to help settle ethnic and Equipment, or Materials
regional conflicts and promote regional se- The Russian Government has issued specific
curity regimes. regulations on the export of goods that might be
used to make weapons of mass destruction.
1 Preventing Export of Weapons or of Information about the regulations of other former
Weapon Components Soviet republics is still spotty .42 But former
If weapons of mass destruction remain under Soviet military enterprises, new companies, and
effective central Russian control, their export local and regional governments are striving to
seems unlikely. But the same sorts of civil earn foreign hard currencies through exports of all
disorder and governmental breakdown that could kinds. In the transition to a market economy, there
lead to weapons or key components falling into is reason to question how effectively controls on
illegitimate hands could also foster the sale either declared exports or smuggled goods will be
abroad of such goods. With or without coopera- administered. Western governments with greater
tion from officials in the former Soviet states, experience in export regulations may be able to
U.S. and other foreign intelligence services may offer technical assistance. U.S. and other intelli-
be able to help monitor and stop illicit transac- gence agencies may be able to track questionable
tions. exports and direct the attention of authorities in
the former Soviet republics to specific problems.
H Inhibiting Emigration of Technical A private U.S. org anization 43 is working with
Personnel groups in the former Soviet Union on a project on
The United States and other nations have “Building Communities of Nonproliferation Spe-
supported creation in Moscow and Kiev (Ukraine) cialists in the Former Soviet Union. ’ If such
of International Science and Technology Centers, communities can be established, they may con-
intended to help establish meaningful, nonmili- tribute to more rigorous implementation of non-
tary work for scientists and engineers who might proliferation policies in the former Soviet Union.
Efforts to strengthen verification of compli- judgments about how high a price to pay for
ance with the NPT or the BWC will have to take enhanced verification regimes is the fact that
into account the difficulties of balancing costs increments of intrusion and expense will not
and possible benefits from onsite inspections. necessarily lead to correspondingly higher confi-
Costs include the following: dence in compliance. The United States, for
● Costs of inspecting: inspection teams, equip- example, in negotiating the CWC, judged that
ment, and operations, whether they are ‘‘anywhere, anytime’ challenge inspections would
nationally supplied or work for international not bring sufficient returns in verification to
organizations, cost money. justify the costs (primarily the third category of
● Costs of being inspected: personnel of the
vantages.
Costs of onsite inspection are one issue in assessing
The costs in the frost category are not too difficult the net value of verification regimes for
to calculate; those in the second category are more nonproliferation agreements. Pictured here is an x-ray
difficult to estimate; those in the third are nearly fluorescence spectrometer used to analyze samples
impossible to quantify. Further complicating from nuclear inspections in Iraq.
113
114 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
costs above: endangered military and intelligence indeed any kinds of weapons) have generally
secrets).1 acknowledged that no verification regime will be
Other verification enhancements also impose perfect: a nation that wants to cheat badly enough
costs. For example, improved international export can probably get away with it at some level.
reporting to monitor flows of dual-use technolo- Therefore, they suggest as a practical standard
gies could compromise legitimate competitive that verification measures should be able to detect
advantages for some of the companies involved. “militarily significant” violations. The follow-
A multilaterally conducted verification regime ing two examples indicate how the Reagan
carries yet another risk: that the information administration framed this concept in its support
collected by an international organization might of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty. Based
prove useful to potential proliferants within the on Cold War strategic calculations, these example
organization. This risk is greatest in the nuclear do not directly pertain to the consequences of
field, where significant weapons know-how is violating nonproliferation commitments. But they
still difficult to acquire. Thus, in gathering details do illustrate issues important to any arms control
about the Iraqi nuclear weapons program, the agreement.
IAEA has tried to restrict the information to At that time presidential arms control adviser
members of the organization already possessing Paul Nitze said that the administration. . . .
nuclear weapons. . . . would consider the standard to be whether or
To be weighed against the above costs is the not the Soviet Union could covertly deploy a
question of how much verification is enough. force which would be militarily significant and
Beyond the issue of the symbolic or psychic whether we could find that out. . .in a timely
benefits of various verification measures, poli- fashion, so that we could take offsetting actions
cymakers need to judge arms control regime ourselves in a timely manner.2
verification requirements (e.g., those for the In written responses to questions, Secretary of
projected Chemical Weapons Convention) in at State George Schultz outlined factors that would
least three dimensions: go into a determination of military significance:
● the significance of potential violations, ● the quantitative level and overall threat
. the verification measures that would be presented to the United States and NATO;
required to deter or detect significant viola- ● qualitative factors, including kinds of weap-
complex, subjective, and open to debate: no the cheater make cheating forces redundant
conclusive technical criteria will be possible. or add significant capability;
The discussion below shows why this is so. ● the extent to which existing U.S. or allied
1 The Chemical Weapons Convention has the most extensive onsite inspection regime of any international nonproliferation cmnmitment.
For an analysis of some of the costs of implementing such a regime, see U.S. Congress, Ofilce of ‘khnology Assessment The Chenu”cal
Weapon.t Conven#”on: Effects on the U.S. Chemical hdh.rtry, OTA-BP-ISC-1O6 (Washington DC: U.S. Government Printing ~lce, August
1993).
z Ambassador Paul Nitze in U.S. Congress, Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, The fNF Treaty, Hearings, Part 1, Serial Number
100-522, Pt. 1, 1988, p. 301,
—....— ———. — . .
Appendix 3-A-Costs and Benefits of Onsite Inspections for Nonproliferation Regimes I 115
. the overall political and military situation significant quantities of agents points out that
surrounding discovery of cheating (e.g., estimates might depend on whether chemical
relative stability or tension).3 weapons are being used in covert sabotage
In other words, even in the limited case of operations, mass destruction of civilian popula-
long-range theater nuclear forces, the actual tions, or battlefield situations. The analysts in that
number of illegal missiles would be only one study settled on tactical battlefield employment
factor in a judgment of the military significance as their base case. They point out that in that
of a potential arms control violation. setting, military significance could depend on:
In the nonproliferation context, the problem of ● the toxicity of the agent,
defining militarily significant levels of violation ● the degree of incapacitation or mortality
is even more difficult. For example, while the
possession of 10 illicit nuclear weapons might sought,
mean nothing between the United States and
● weather conditions,
Russia, who each have thousands more, the same ● the degree of protection of the target troops,
number might appear overwhelmingly decisive in ● the delivery systems used, and
a contest between, say, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. ● the size of the target region.
In addition, when weapons of mass destruction These analysts then decided that a possibly
are to be employed as instruments of threat or militarily significant attack would be one against
terror, how can one determine what is a militarily 10 battalions in a 100 km 2 area. In that case,
significant capability? In the case of biological significant quantities might be 30 tons of VX
weapons, for example, a small quantity of agent nerve agent or 1,000 tons of mustard gas. They
(much less than a ton), properly delivered, could
caution, however, that ‘‘these values cannot at
kill hundreds of thousands of people; if used
this point be equated with detection goal quanti-
against protected troops, the same weapons might
ties associated with treaty monitoring.”4
have little military effect.
Chemical weapons present comparable prob-
lems. One systematic attempt to assess militarily
3
Ibid., pp. 470-471.
d Mark F. Mullem Kenneth E. Apg and William D. Stanbro, Criteria jior Monitoring a Chenu”caZ Arms Treaty: Implications for the
Verification Regime (Los Alamos, NM: Los Alamos National Laboratory Center for National Security Studies, Report No. 13, December 1991),
pp. 5-7.
—.
Index
Ad Hoc Group of Governmental Experts on Verification (of monitoring delivery vehicles, 42A13
Biological Weapons Convention), 19 proliferant’s delivery systems, 14,68-69
Advanced delivery systems, 34,51-52,69. See also specific proliferation motivations, 101
types by name in suspected proliferant nations, 46, 66-68
Aerodynamic separation techniques, 36 Belarus. See also Former Soviet republics
Africa, 64. See also specific coun~ies by name control of weapons in, 111
Agents of mass destruction risks from breakup of Soviet Union, 4, 75
biological weapons, 6,38-39 weapons of mass destruction in, 12, 63-65
chemical weapons, 6, 36-37 Benefits offered to forgo weapons of mass destruction. See
lethality of, 46,48-49 Rewarding nonproliferation; Security improvements
surveyed, 47 as nonproliferation incentive
Aircraft Biological weapons
as advanced delivery systems, 3-4,41-42, 51-52 characteristics of, 2-3, 8-9, 47-50
detection of development and testing, 43 delivery of, 6, 39AI0, 50-52
proliferant’s delive~ systems, 68-69 destructive effects of, 4748,52-56
Algeria, 13,64,66 dual-use technologies and, 6,38-40
Approaches to nonproliferation policy environmental effects, 72-73
coercive v. consensurd policies, 31 implications of new technology, 40
intelligence collection v. use, 32 institutional bases of nonproliferation regime, 85
scope of control efforts, 29-30 militarily significant levels of violation for, 115
targeted v. universal approaches, 31-32 military utility of, 56-57,60-61,62-63
unilateral v. international approaches, 30-31 monitoring production, 39-40
Arab nations. See also specific countries by name onsite inspections and, 7
nuclear weapons in the Mideast and, 70, 71, 102, 108 production, 9-11,38-39
regional conflicts and, 16, 109 proliferation motivations, 100-101
Argentina reducing international role of weapons, 106
delivery systems in, 67-69 strategic uses of, 62-63
policy reversals, 18 in suspected proliferant nations, 14-15, 63-66
nuclear weapon program in, 14, 64 tactical uses of, 55-61
and Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, 101 technical basis for monitoring and controlling prolifera-
reducing incentives for weapons, 107 tion, 38-40
Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, 25 unconventional delivery systems and, 69
Arms Export Control Act, 85,87 U.S. military O~mtiOnS and, 74
Arms races, 71, 106-107 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC)
Atomic Energy Act, 85-87,90,95 institutional bases of nonproliferation regime, 85
Australia Group, 5, 85, 88 international norms and, 2
linking assistance to nonproliferation, 103
Ballistic missiles monitoring compliance, 40
as advanced delivery systems, 3-4, 41-42 proliferation motivations and, 99
detection of development and testing, 42A3 rewarding nonproliferation, 22
indigenous production capabilities for, 67 security benefits as nonproliferation incentive, 104-106
117
118 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks
Index I 119
Iraqi facilities, monitoring of, 93, 114 seizure of Soviet weapons by non-Russian authorities,
nuclear safeguards, 18, 23, 34, 101, 108 75-76
international Atomic Energy Agency Statute, 85 weapons of mass destruction in, 12, 63-65
International community Korean peninsula, 4, 12. See also North Korea; South Korea
cooperation among necessary for nonproliferation, 4-5
domino effect and proliferation, 71, 102 Laser isotope separation, 36
double standards and proliferation, 101 Latin America, 64, 67-69. See also specific countries by
norm against proliferation, 17 name
prerequisites to effective nonproliferation policy, 4-6 Latin American Nuclear-Free Zone Treaty. See Treaty of
proliferation costs and risks, 71-73 Tlatelolco
proliferation, implications for, 11-12,69-73 Legal sanctions. See Sanctions against suppliers
reducing international role of weapons, 106 Mhality of weapon agents
and military action against proli.ferants, 20,92 factors affecting, 46,48-49,53-54
International norms nuclear weapons, 34-35
erosion of, 17, 71 weapon characteristics and comparisons, 7-9
importance of for nonproliferation objectives, 1-2, 17,21, weapon effects, 52-55, 61
30,94-96 Libya, 13,65-69
unilateral and international policy approaches, 30 London Club. See Nuclear Suppliers Group
International Science and Technology Centers, 112 Long-range delivery systems. Seespecific types of system by
International security arrangements, 22-25, 107-109 name
‘‘Internationalist’ approach to policy, 30-31
Iran Middle East. See also specific countries by name
delivery systems in, 67-69
delivery systems in, 66-69
weapon of mass destruction programs in, 13, 64-66 reducing incentives for weapons, 107
regional security concerns, and, 16, 107-108
Iran-Iraq Non-proliferation Act, 85,90
weapon of mass destruction programs in, 4,64-66,70-71,
Iran-Iraq WW, 17,58-59,64-66
102, 108
w Militarily si~lcance of treaty violations, 114-115
costs of nuclear weapon program, 33, 72
Military delivexy systems, 50-51. See also Advanced deliv-
delivery system programs in, 66-69 ery systems
environmental effects of weapon of mass destruction Military operations
program, 72 as responses to proliferation, 19-20, 25, 84, 91-92, 94-97
international response to, if nuclear-armed, 70-71 proliferation implications for U.S., 12,74
militaty response to proliferation, illustration of, 91, %-97 U.S. defense commitments as nonproliferation incentive,
monitoring of facilities in, 93, 114 107
proliferation motivations, 100 Military rivahies, proliferation motivations and, 102
U.N. Security Council cease-fro agreement, 18,91,92-93 Military utility of weapons of mass destruction, 7-9,55-63.
U.S. political-military policies and, 73 See also Strategic uses of weapons of mass destruc-
weapons of mass destruction, use by Gulf War, 10,61, 110 tion; Tactical uses of weapons of mass destruction
weapon of mass destruction programs in, 12-13, 15,63-66 Missile Technology Control Act, 85,90
Israel Missile lkchnology Control Regime, 35,4142, 66,76, 85,
conflicting U.S. policy objectives with nxpect to, 26 89
delivery systems in, 66-69 Missiles. See also Ballistic missiles; Cruise missiles
difficulty of bringing into nuclear nonproliferation regime, institutional bases of nonproliferation regimes, 85
104 Monitoring and controlling proliferation. See also Onsite
proliferation motivations, 102 inspections
regional security concerns, 16, 108 monitoring others v. avoiding costs of being monitored, 28
weapon of mass destruction programs in, 13, 17, 64-66, monitoring proliferation and verifying compliance with
104 agreements, 6-7
technical basis for, 32-43
Japan, 34, 107 Motivations for proliferation
domino effect and, 71, 102
Kazakhstan. See also Former Soviet xepublics international double standards and, 101-102
control of weapons in, 111 military rivalries and, 102
indigenous weapons production and development, 77 perceived value of weapons, 99-101
production facilities in, 77 MTCR. See Missile ‘lkchnology Control Regime
risks from breakup of Soviet Union, 4 Multi-use technologies. See Dual-use technologies
Index 1121
Multilateral export control groups, 5,18,85. See also specific Nuclear Suppliers Guidelines, 85, 88
groups by name Nuclear tests
Multilateral export controls, 86-89 detection of, 35
Myanmar, 65-66 lack of need for, 35
Nuclear weapons
National export controls, 86-87 ballistic missile programs and, 46
Near-term proliferation threats. See Suspected proliferant characteristics of, 2-3, 7-8, 47-50
nations costs to mount weapon program, 33, 72
Nitze, Paul, 114 delivexy systems, 50-52
Nonproliferation policy. See also Detemence policies; Policy destructive effects of, 52-56
choices and tradeoffs institutional bases of nonproliferation regimes, 84-85
categories of, 5, 83-84 likelihood of use, 9, 28-29,69-70, 110
disincentives and sanctions against proliferants, 5, 20-21, militarily significant levels of violation for, 115
93-98 militaxy utility of, 55-62
failures of nonproliferation, 25, 109-111 noncoercive measures to manage proliferation, 110
former Soviet republic situation, 111-112 production, 9-11, 33-35
imposing obstacles to proliferation, 5, 19-20, 84-93 proliferation motivations, 99-101
institutional bases of nonproliferation regimes, 84-85 reducing international role of weapons, 106
rewards for abstention, 5, 21-22, 98-104 regional conflicts and, 16, 108
security benefits, 5, 22-25, 104-109 secrecy as obstacle to proliferation, 84
SUII_UTIUy, 4-6, 83-84 strategic uses of, 61-62
North AtYica, 64. See also specific countries by name in suspected proli.ferant nations, 14-15, 63-66
North Korea tactical uses of, 55-61
delivery systems in, 66-69 technical basis for monitoring and controlling prolifera-
missile exports, 41 tion, 33-36
and Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, 13-14, 108 unconventional delivery systems and, 69
policy reversals, 18 U.S. military operations and, 74
reducing incentives for weapons, 107
regional security concerns, 4, 16, 108 Objectives of nonproliferation policy, conflicts among,
weapon of mass destruction programs in, 13-14, 17,64-66 export controls v. export promotion, 26-28
Northeast Asia, 97, 108, See also specific countries by name monitoring others v. avoiding costs of being monitored, 28
NTPT. See Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty nuclear deterrence v. nuclear nonproliferation, 28
Nuclear deterrence policies, 28,73-74 preventing proliferation v. preventing use, 28-29
Nuclear Exporters Committee (Za.ngger Committee), 85,88 Obstacles to proliferation
Nuclear materials, 6, 10,23, 33-36, 76-77 export controls, 19-20, 84-88
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Act, 85,87,95, 103 forcible interference, 19-20,25,84,91-92,94-97
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty hampering transfers of expertise, 90-91
adherence to by former Soviet republics, 4, 75-76, 111 Iraq and, 92-93
background, 1 sanctions against suppliers, 20, 88-90
ban on unsafeguarded nuclear facilities, 35 StXP3Cy, 84
central bargain of, 22, 104-106 summary, 4-5
disc rirninatoxy nonproliferation regimes issue, 17, 101 Onsite inspections, 105, 113-115, See also Monitoring and
and export controls, 88 controlling proliferation
increasing membership of, 17 Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, 23
institutional bases of nonproliferation regimes, 85
and the International Atomic Energy Agency, 23 Pakistan
international norms and, 2, 17 delive~ systems in, 30,67-69
linkage of technical assistance to nonproliferation, 22,98, difficulty of bringing n nuclear nonproliferation regime,
102-103 104
mo@ing to accommodate additional nuclear powers, proliferation motivations, 102
28-29 regional security concerns and, 16, 108
security improvements as nonproliferation incentive, 104- weapon of mass destruction programs in, 13, 17, 64-66,
106 104-105
technical training obligations and, 91 Perceived value of weapons, 99-101
treaty status of suspected proliferant nations, 13-14, 64 Plutonium, material production and, 33-34
veriilcation regime, 22-25, 113 Policy, See Nonproliferation Policy
Nuclear Proliferation and Safeguards, 99 Policy choices and tradeoffs
Nuclear Suppliers Group, 5, 18, 76,85, 88 conflicting approaches to policy, 29-32
122 I Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks