Autofacts®

2010 Automotive Review

Global Automotive Outlook

1 G
 lobal summary 7 Regional overview 61 Pure electric vehicles

75 L
 eading alliance 259 Summary powertrain data
group data
Contents

Global summary 1

Regional overview 7
North America – market overview with sales and assembly

European Union+EFTA – market overview with sales and assembly

East Europe – market overview with sales and assembly

Asia Pacific developed – market overview with sales and assembly

Asia Pacific developing – market overview with sales and assembly

South America – market overview with sales and assembly

Additional content 61

Pure electric vehicles: a long-term solution to sustainable transportation?

Leading alliance group data 75

Assembly

Capacity

Summary powertrain data 259

© 2010 PricewaterhouseCoopers. All rights reserved. “PricewaterhouseCoopers” and “PwC” refer to the network of member firms
of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited (PwCIL). Each member firm is a separate legal entity and does not act as agent
of PwCIL or any other member firm. PwCIL does not provide any services to clients. PwCIL is not responsible or liable for the acts
or omissions of any of its member firms nor can it control the exercise of their professional judgment or bind them in any way. No
member firm is responsible or liable for the acts or omissions of any other member firm nor can it control the exercise of another
member firm’s professional judgment or bind another member firm or PwCIL in any way. DT-10-0069
Market Summary
East Europe

East Europe
Despite a recent history of strong
growth, East Europe has proved no
more resilient to the global decline
in vehicle demand than any other
region. The region, which had
posted an average annual assembly
growth rate of 10% between 2000
and 2008 (peaking at 25% in 2004),
saw a decline in assembly of more
than 46% in 2008.
This development came against
a background of rapid change in
the economies that constitute the
region. To some extent, all the
major assembling countries of East
Europe (Russia, Turkey and Ukraine)
had enjoyed the fruits of economic
stability, low interest rates, access
to credit and the benefits of
global trade (e.g. exports of both
consumer goods and raw materials
and energy). All this changed during
the latter half of 2008, as the effects
of the global slowdown began
to affect the economies of East
European countries: Credit began to
dry up, and exports declined.
In Russia, the market had
benefitted from economic growth
driven by access to easy credit
and the booming revenues from
Russia’s raw materials and energy
exports. These fed into a rising
economy: GDP grew 8.1% in 2007.
However, during 2008 the economy
began to contract and grew only
5.6%, then fell by 7.9% in 2009.
New car sales, which began to
decline from May 2008 and fell
dramatically throughout 2009,
reflected the economic contraction.
Indeed 2009 sales, at fewer than

East Europe light vehicle assembly

2008 vs. 2009 by quarter
1,000 100%

800 80%

600 60%

400 40%

200 20%

0 0%

-200 -20%

-400 -40%

-600 -60%

-800 -80%

-1,000 -100%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2008 2009 % Change (R-axis)

Source: PwC Autofacts 2010 Q2

PricewaterhouseCoopers I 27
Market Performance
EU+EFTA

EU+EFTA car sales were slightly Taking WE first (EU15+EFTA), the

2009’s gain will be ahead of initial expectations in Q1
2010’s loss. 2010, increasing by 9.5%, because
of a number of factors. Those
markets where scrappage schemes
The extent of 2009’s were in place but ending, such as
volatility is clearly seen by Italy and the United Kingdom, saw
the SAAR range of over strong growth as people rushed
4m units compared to a to benefit from the incentives.
normal range of 1–1.5m Germany saw a smaller-than-
units. Whilst 2010 is expected contraction following
unlikely to see a repeat, the ending of its scheme last year,
suggesting the overall market
volatility is still likely to contraction in 2010 may be less
be higher than normal as than initially feared. Finally, many
scrappge schemes end. markets which were not distorted
Overall, we expect EU LV by scrappage schemes in 2009
registrations of 14.98m got off to a strong start, illustrated
units in 2010. by Belgium (+12.1%), Denmark
(+12.8%), Sweden (+34.6%) and
Norway (+57.4%).
second half of 2009 was extremely
strong, with the SAAR recovering
to near-normal levels, because of
the rush to benefit from the German
scrappage scheme before funds ran
out combined with the increasing
impact from the UK and Spanish
schemes, which did not start
until midyear. Following a drop in
January 2010, primarily because of
the removal of the scrappage boost
from Germany, the SAAR recovered
strongly in February and especially
March. However, we do not
anticipate this level of demand to
be sustained, currently forecasting
new car sales of about 12.7m units
in WE.

WE (EU15+EFTA) annual and SAAR forecast

2003–2010 (Millions)
17

16

15

14

13

At present the upside potential appears

12 to be outweighing the downside risk,
with post scrappage scheme falls appearing
11 less severe than anticipated and other WE
market growth starting strongly.

10
Jan 03
May 03
Sep 03
Jan 04
May 04
Sep 04
Jan 05
May 05
Sep 05
Jan 06
May 06
Sep 06
Jan 07
May 07
Sep 07
Jan 08
May 08
Sep 08
Jan 09
May 09
Sep 09
Jan 10
May 10

SAAR Annual Sales

Sales Forecast

Source: ACEA, Autofacts 2010 Q2

PricewaterhouseCoopers I 19
 Pure Electric Vehicles:
The long-term solution to
sustainable transportation?

Introduction Twizy and Zoe, as well as Daimler’s

Pure electric vehicles (PEVs) have
received plenty of public attention
lately. The 2009 Frankfurt Motor
Show hosted many electric vehicles,
such as Renault’s zero emission fleet
consisting of the Fluence, Kangoo,
Blue Zero vehicles including plug-
in hybrid (PHEV), PEV and fuel cell
variants. Furthermore, the 2010
North American International Auto
Show had its own “Electric Avenue”
to showcase PEV developments by
various suppliers and automakers.

Global EV assembly scenario forecast

1.000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Scenario range
Baseline

Source: PwC Autofacts 2010 Q2

PricewaterhouseCoopers I 61
 Renault-Nissan: Assembly (000s) East Europe

Platform Brand Nameplate Code Plant Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013

1111 Lada Oka 1111 Serpukhov Russia 4.9 1.3

1117 Lada Kalina 1117 Togliatti #1 Russia 93.1 136.2 41.2
124 Lada Nova/Zhiguli 124 Argun Russia 0.1 0.8
124 Lada Nova/Zhiguli 124 Izhevsk Russia 21.9 20.9 4.3
124 Lada Nova/Zhiguli 124 Kremenchug Ukraine 5.4 0.6
124 Lada Nova/Zhiguli 124 Lutsk Ukraine 12.3 17.4
124 Lada Nova/Zhiguli 124 Togliatti #1 Russia 212.1 203.2 53.0
2108 Lada 110 110 Cherkasy Ukraine 5.4 5.4
2108 Lada 110 110 Kremenchug Ukraine 8.0 2.2 1.6
2108 Lada 110 110 Lutsk Ukraine 3.8 4.5
2108 Lada 110 110 Togliatti #1 Russia 121 38.4 0.9
2108 Lada Priora 2170 Togliatti #1 Russia 72.9 172.3 94.1
2108 Lada Samara 2108 Ilichevsk Ukraine 32.7 22.8 3.5
2108 Lada Samara 2108 Togliatti #1 Russia 193.9 207.3 75.7
2108 Lada Samara 2108 Ust-Kamenogorsk Kazakhstan 1.6 0.9 1.0
2121 Lada Niva 2121 Lutsk Ukraine 0.8 0.8
2121 Lada Niva 2121 Togliatti #1 Russia 42.9 44.2 32.1
2121 Lada Niva 2121 Ust-Kamenogorsk Kazakhstan 3.4 1.0 0.9
D Nissan Teana J32 Vyborg Russia 1.5
F-ALPHA Nissan Pathfinder P61B Astana Kazakhstan 0.8
X65 Renault Clio Symbol L65 Bursa Turkey 75.4 46.0
X65 Renault Symbol L35 Bursa Turkey 23.9 60.7
X84/C Nissan X-Trail X84/C Astana Kazakhstan 0.4
X84/C Nissan X-Trail X84/C Vyborg Russia 1.3
X84/C Renault Fluence L38 Bursa Turkey 9.6
X84/C Renault Megane X84 Bursa Turkey 85.3 65.4 22.0
X84/C Renault Megane LC B32 Bursa Turkey 0.4
X85/B Renault Clio X85 Bursa Turkey 102.9 151.4 170.8
X85/B Renault Logan X90 Moscow Russia 72.8 72.6 52.9
Total 1,167.0 1,238.8 635.0 857.6 874.6 1,200.4

PricewaterhouseCoopers
I
115
Autofacts® I 2010 Automotive Review
Engine fuel type
Consumption of engines by fuel type is subject to regional variation. The share of diesel engines has been and will
be the highest in the EU, accounting for more than 50% of the total consumption volume. Moreover, the share of
alternative fuels will be comparatively low even in 2013.

Asia-Pacific Middle East & Africa

100% 40 100% 10

75% 30 75%

50% 20 50%

25% 10 25%

0% 0 0% 0
2009 2013 2009 2013

East Europe European Union

100% 10 100% 20

75% 75%

50% 50%

25% 25%

0% 0 0% 10
2009 2013 2009 2013

North America South America

100% 20 100% 10

75% 75%

50% 10 50%

25% 25%

0% 0 0% 0
2009 2013 2009 2013

Diesel Gasoline Hybrid Total volume (R-axis in millions of units) Source: PwC Autofacts 2010 Q2

PricewaterhouseCoopers I 259
 Regional Automotive Practice Lead Partners

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International Limited (PwCIL). Each member firm is a separate legal entity and does not act as agent of PwCIL or
any other member firm. PwCIL does not provide any services to clients. PwCIL is not responsible or liable for the
acts or omissions of any of its member firms nor can it control the exercise of their professional judgment or bind
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can it control the exercise of another member firm's professional judgment or bind another member firm or PwCIL
in any way.'

Our Automotive Practice

More than 1,500 skilled PwC professionals comprise our global Automotive network, which is driven by eight
Centres of Excellence to provide guidance, offer analysis, and deliver solutions to firms across the entire
automotive industry value chain. Autofacts, PwC’s industry-differentiating service offering, includes a global
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Regional Automotive Practice Lead Partners

Global Europe Central & Eastern Europe
Richard Hanna Harald Kayser Matthew Pottle
richard.hanna@us.pwc.com harald.kayser@de.pwc.com matthew.pottle@cz.pwc.com
North America South America Asia Pacific
David Breen Marcelo Cioffi Alan Yam
david.j.breen@us.pwc.com marcelo.cioffi@br.pwc.com alan.yam@cn.pwc.com
Assurance Services Tax and Legal Services Global
Global Automotive Global Automotive Pricewaterhousecoopers
Assurance Leader Tax Leader Autofacts Leader
Rick Hanna Horst Rättig Calum MacRae
richard.hanna@us.pwc.com horst.raettig@de.pwc.com calum.j.macrae@uk.pwc.com

Visit our website at www.pwc.com/auto

PricewaterhouseCoopers
© 2010 PricewaterhouseCoopers. All rights reserved. “PricewaterhouseCoopers” and “PwC” refer to the network of member firms
of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited (PwCIL). Each member firm is a separate legal entity and does not act as agent of
PwCIL or any other member firm. PwCIL does not provide any services to clients. PwCIL is not responsible or liable for the acts or
omissions of any of its member firms nor can it control the exercise of their professional judgment or bind them in any way. No member
firm is responsible or liable for the acts or omissions of any other member firm nor can it control the exercise of another member firm’s
professional judgment or bind another member firm or PwCIL in any way. DT-10-0069