Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

South China Sea: Implications of
China’s Seamless 9-Dash Line
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 4, 2018

Q1. In the context where China has been seeking to turn its nine-dashed line in
the South China Sea to a seamless line, what did those activities demonstrate?
ANSWER: At the moment the impetus to turn the nine-dash line into a continuous
line with precise coordinates is the initiative of a group of Chinese scientists and not
the central government.
In reality China is enforcing its clams to sovereignty over all the features (rocks) and
adjacent waters within the nine-dash line. It stations Coast Guard vessels throughout
the area to enforce Chinese jurisdiction. China's military regularly challenges foreign
military flights and naval ship passages through the waters that it claims.
And with reports that China has deployed mobile electronic jamming
equipment, anti-ship cruise missiles and surface to air missiles, China has developed
the capacity not only to identify the movement of military ships and aircraft in the
region, but the ability to shoot down aircraft and destroy surface targets should it
choose to do so. The so-called new 1951 map is mere window dressing for China's
current activities.
Q2. What do you think Vietnam should do next to protect its rights in the sea
area?
ANSWER: Vietnam can only continue to do what it has been doing already. It must
continue to modernise its military and create a modest deterrent force for the South
China Sea. Vietnam must also continue to encourage and support the presence of
naval ships and aircraft from the major maritime powers including the United States,
Japan, India, France, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia.
Vietnam needs to adopt a tough position within ASEAN as its ten members negotiate
a Code of Conduct with China. Since these negotiations are conducted on the basis
of consensus Vietnam should not let pressure from other ASEAN members sway it
from standing up for its rights or entitlements under international law.
But there are real limits on how Vietnam can bring its influence to bear. Last year
and this year it had to yield to Chinese pressure and terminate oil exploration in the
waters near Vanguard reef (Tu Chinh).


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Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “South China Sea: Implications of China’s

Seamless 9-Dash Line,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 4, 2018. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
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other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
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