Ejercicios Practicas Mercado

ANALISIS DE LA DEMANDA ACTUAL
CONS CARNE INGRESO

AÑO P/HABIT P/HABIT ( ∑ Y ) ( ∑ X 2 ) −( ∑ X )( ∑ XY )
1987 25 300 a= 2
1988 26 320 N ( ∑ X 2 ) −( ∑ X )
1989 27 320
1990 26 330
1991 29 340 N ( ∑ XY ) − ( ∑ X ) ( ∑ Y )
1992 31 360 b= 2
2
1993 30 370 N ( ∑ X ) −( ∑ X )
1994 34 380
1995 35 400
1996 34 420
a=YPROM−bXPROM
CONS CARNE Y INGRESO X X

2
AÑO P/HABIT LOG C P/HABIT LOG Y
1987 25 1.39794001 300 2.47712125 6.13612971
1988 26 1.41497335 320 2.50514998 6.27577641
1989 27 1.43136376 320 2.50514998 6.27577641
1990 26 1.41497335 330 2.51851394 6.34291247
1991 29 1.46239800 340 2.53147892 6.40838551
1992 31 1.49136169 360 2.55630250 6.53468248
1993 30 1.47712125 370 2.56820172 6.59566010
1994 34 1.53147892 380 2.57978360 6.65528341
1995 35 1.54406804 400 2.60205999 6.77071620
1996 34 1.53147892 420 2.62324929 6.88143684
14.69715729 25.46701117 64.87675953
y PROMEDIO 1.46971573 2.54670112
a= -1.31730529 b= 1.0943652
logc logy
1.39794001 2.477121255
1.41497335 2.505149978 antilog a = 0.0048160912
1.43136376 2.505149978
1.41497335 2.51851394
1.46239800 2.531478917
1.49136169
1.47712125
2.556302501
2.568201724
i y=
√
9 420
300
−1=0 . 038093444
1.53147892 2.579783597
i y=
√
9 420
300
−1=0 . 038093444
1.54406804 2.602059991 1
1.53147892 2.62324929 Y 97=420 [ 1+0.038093444 ]
1997 35.4199153893 435.9992448
1998 36.8991295681 452.6079559
1999 38.4401190158 469.8493499
2000 40.0454635982 487.7475279
∑ Y ) ( ∑ X 2 ) −( ∑ X )( ∑ XY )
2
N ( ∑ X 2 ) −( ∑ X )
( ∑ XY ) −( ∑ X ) ( ∑ Y )
2 2
N ( ∑ X ) −( ∑ X )
YPROM−bXPROM
XY Y
2
3.46286691 1.95423627 Dependent Variable: CONS

3.54472045 2.00214958 Method: Least Squares
3.58578090 2.04880223 Date: 05/16/06 Time: 16:41
3.56363010 2.00214958 Sample: 1987 1996
3.70202970 2.13860790 Included observations: 10
3.81237163 2.22415970
3.79354535 2.18188720 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic
3.95088419 2.34542767
4.01775768 2.38414613 C -1.317305 0.320844 -4.105753
4.01745098 2.34542767 INGPER 1.094365 0.125965 8.687869
37.45103790 21.62699392
R-squared 0.904168 Mean dependent var
a= -1.317305287 ls logc c logy Adjusted R-squ 0.892189 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regress 0.017767 Akaike info criterion
Sum squared re 0.002525 Schwarz criterion
Log likelihood 27.23062 F-statistic

Durbin-Watson 2.544027 Prob(F-statistic)
0
−1=0 . 038093444 1. 0943652
[ ]
yT
0
C97 =34
y0
0
−1=0 . 038093444 1. 0943652
[ ]
yT
0
420 [ 1+0.038093444 ]
1 C97 =34 función Eviews
y0 1.3935698 1.3935699513
1.42424346 1.4242436096
1.42424346 1.4242436096
1.43886851 1.4388686641
1.45305693 1.4530570834
1.48022299 1.4802231491
1.49324508 1.4932452444
y x
CONS PESCADOCARNE INGRESO
AÑO P/HABIT logy P/HABIT logx
1997 50 1.69897000 600 2.77815125
1998 52 1.71600334 640 2.80617997
1999 57 1.75587486 645 2.80955971
2000 50 1.69897000 660 2.81954394
2001 63 1.79934055 680 2.83250891
2002 48 1.68124124 690 2.83884909
2003 46 1.66275783 700 2.84509804
2004 76 1.88081359 780 2.89209460
2005 82 1.91381385 790 2.89762709
2006 85 1.92941893 795 2.90036713
Prob.
0.0034
0
1.469716
0.05411
-5.046124
-4.985607
75.47907
0.000024
CONSUMO INGRESO Dependent Variable: LOGC
logC logY Method: Least Squares
1.69897 2.77815125 Date: 03/22/08 Time: 10:08
1.71600334 2.80617997 Sample: 1997 2006
1.69897 2.81954394
1.79934055 2.83250891 Variable Coefficient Std. Error
1.68124124 2.83884909
1.66275783 2.84509804 C -3.72853 1,410,037
1.88081359 2.8920946 LOGY 0.93605 0.496094
1.91381385 2.89762709
1.92941893 2.90036713 R-squared 0.655621 Mean dependent var
Adjusted R-s 0.612574 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regre 0.062823 Akaike info criterion
Sum squared 0.031574 Schwarz criterion
Log likelihood 1,460,066 F-statistic
Durbin-Watson 1,541,022 Prob(F-statistic)
Dependent Variable: LOGC

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 10:08
Sample: 1997 2006
Included observations: 10
Variable Coefficient Std. Error
C -3,728,531 1,410,037
LOGY 1,936,051 0.496094
R-squared 0.655621 Mean dependent var
Adjusted R- 0.612574 S.D. dependent var
squared
S.E. of 0.062823 Akaike info criterion
regression
Sum 0.031574 Schwarz criterion
squared
resid
Log 1,460,066 F-statistic
likelihood
Durbin- 1,541,022 Prob(F-statistic)
Watson stat
DEMAN 95 76.107
DEMAN 96 77.042
0.00018684
t-Statistic Prob.
0,00018684 Y 1,9360514
-2,644,279 0.0295
3,902,591 0.0045
Mean dependent var 1,773,720

S.D. dependent var 0.100931
Akaike info criterion -2,520,132
Schwarz criterion -2,459,615
1,523,021
Prob(F-statistic) 0.004528
t-Statistic Prob.
-2,644,279 0.0295
3,902,591 0.0045
Akaike info criterion -2,520,132
Schwarz criterion -2,459,615
F-statistic 1,523,021
años demanda
año x Y Y cuadrado xy
1987 -5 10 ls y c x $b 100.00 -50
1988 -4 20 400 -80 proyección
1989 -3 30 900 -90 1998
1990 -2 45 2025 -90 1999
1991 -1 70 4900 -70 2000
1992 0 90 8100 0 2001
1993 1 125 15625 125 2002
1994 2 150 22500 300 2003
1995 3 180 32400 540 2004
1996 4 220 48400 880 2005
1997 5 270 72900 1350
1210 208250 2815
METODOS DE PROYECCION DE MERCADO
1. EXTRAPOLACION DE LA TENDENCIA HISTORICA DEL CONSUMO TOTAL
AÑO AÑO CONSUMO

1990 0 66.6
1991 1 84.9 Dependent Variable: CONS
1992 2 88.6 Method: Least Squares
1993 3 78 Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:2
1994 4 96.8 Sample: 1990 2000
1995 5 105.2 Included observations: 11
1996 6 93.2
1997 7 111.6 Variable
1998 8 88.3
1999 9 117 C
2000 10 115.2 X
proyeccion
R-squared
2001 11 118.714554 Adjusted R-
2002 12 122.660918 S.E. of regr
2003 13 126.607282 Sum squared
2004 14 130.553646 Log likeliho
2005 15 134.50001 Durbin-Wats
2010 20 154.23183
Y cuadrado XY AÑO AÑO CONSUMO Dependent Variable: CONS

4435.56 -333 1990 -5 66.6 Method: Least Squares
7208.01 -339.6 1991 -4 84.9 Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:2
7849.96 -265.8 1992 -3 88.6 Sample: 1990 2000
6084 -156 1993 -2 78 Included observations: 11
9370.24 -96.8 1994 -1 96.8
11067.04 0 1995 0 105.2 Variable
8686.24 93.2 1996 1 93.2
12454.56 223.2 1997 2 111.6 C
7796.89 264.9 1998 3 88.3 X
13689 468 1999 4 117
13271.04 576 2000 5 115.2 R-squared
101912.54 434.1 proyeccion 1045.4 Adjusted R-
S.E. of regr
2001 6 118.714544 Sum squared
2002 7 122.660908 Log likeliho
2003 8 126.607272 Durbin-Wats
2004 9 130.553636
2005 10 134.5
Se= 94.26807151 2010 15 154.23182
AÑO CONSUMO Dependent Variable: CONS

1990 66.6 Method: Least Squares
1991 84.9 Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:4
1992 88.6 Sample: 1990 2000
1993 78 Included observations: 11
1994 96.8
1995 105.2 Variable
1996 93.2
1997 111.6 C
1998 88.3 X
1999 117
2000 115.2 R-squared
proyeccion Adjusted R-
S.E. of regr
2001 118.715364 Sum squared
2002 122.661728 Log likeliho
2003 126.608092 Durbin-Wats
2004 130.554456
2005 134.50082
2010 154.23264
EJERCICIO 1 7 7
X Y X x CUADR XY
AÑO CONSUMO AÑO
1 4.8 1 1.00 4.80
2 5.6 2 4.00 11.20
3 6.5 3 9.00 19.50
4 7.3 4 16.00 29.20
5 8.1 5 25.00 40.50
6 8.5 6 36.00 51.00
7 9.1 7 49.00 63.70
8 9.8 8 64.00 78.40
9 10.4 9 81.00 93.60
10 11.9 10 100.00 119.00
82.00000000 55.00000000 385.00 510.90
y PROMEDIO 8.20000000 5.50000000
a= 4.20666667 b= 0.7260606 a=
X Y
AÑO CONSUMO
1 4.8
2 5.6
3 6.5
4 7.3
5 8.1
6 8.5
7 9.1
8 9.8
9 10.4
10 11.9
EXTRAPOLACION EXPONENCIAL
√
n Cn
Q n =Q 0 ( 1+ i ) i=
n−1
−1
C0
para el ejemplo anterior
i=
√
n−1 115,2
66,6
−1=0,056
Q2010 =115 ,2(1+0,056)10 =198,60

3. PRACTICA población CONSUMO
CONSUMO TOTAL EN EL AÑO 2000 170
POBLACION 2000 38.500
TASA HISTORICA DE CRECIMIENTO DE LA POBLA 2.2
TASA DE CREC EN EL PERIODO DE PROY. 2.6
TSA DE CREC DEL CONSUMO GLOBAL 5.8
RESOLUCION
DEMANDA POR HABIT 2000 4.42
TASA HIST DE CREC DEL CONS POR HABIT iq 360.00%
calculo del consumo por habitante 2001 4.5745454545 39.501 180.70
AÑO CONS
Se= 18.593871003
demanda Intervalos
6 263.54546 226.34546 300.74546
7 289.13637 252.34546 326.74546
8
9
10
2
153,147,891,704,226 ###
Adjusted R-squ 0.892189 S.D. dependent var

S.E. of regress 0.017767 Akaike info criterion
Sum squared re 0.002525 Schwarz criterion
Log likelihood 27.23062 F-statistic
Durbin-Watson 2.544027 Prob(F-statistic)
Dependent Variable: CONS

Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:26
Sample: 1990 2000
Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
75.30455 5.476701 13.74998 0

3.946364 0.925731 4.262968 0.0021
0.668788 Mean dependent var 95.03636

0.631986 S.D. dependent var 16.00477
9.709154 Akaike info criterion 7.546981
848.409 Schwarz criterion 7.619326
-39.5084 F-statistic 18.1729
2.957856 Prob(F-statistic) 0.002102

Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:28
Sample: 1990 2000

95.03636 2.92742 32.46421 0
3.946364 0.925731 4.262968 0.0021

0.631986 S.D. dependent var 16.00477
-39.5084 F-statistic 18.1729

Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:46
Sample: 1990 2000
-7777.959 1846.837 -4.211504 0.0023

3.946364 0.925731 4.262968 0.0021

0.631986 S.D. dependent var 16.00477
-39.5084 F-statistic 18.1729
Y CUADRADO AÑO CONS

Se= 0.2571
23.04 proyección demanda Intervalos
31.36 11 12.193333333
42.25 12 12.919393939 12.4154779394 12.919393939
53.29
65.61
72.25
82.81
96.04
108.16 2
141.61
716.42
4.2066666667

Date: 05/16/06 Time: 17:42
Sample: 2001 2010
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 4.206667 0.17566 23.94773 0

X 0.726061 0.02831 25.64658 0
R-squared 0.987983 Mean dependent var 8.2

Adjusted R-squar 0.986481 S.D. dependent var 2.211586
S.E. of regression 0.25714 Akaike info criterion 0.298468
Sum squared resi 0.52897 Schwarz criterion 0.358985
Log likelihood 0.507661 F-statistic 657.747
Durbin-Watson sta 1.482912 Prob(F-statistic) 0
CONSUMO
Dependent Variable: Y
Date: 04/19/06 Time: 15:39
Sample: 1987 1997 ( ∑ Y ) (∑ X
a=
N (∑
C 110 5.606265 19.62091 0 N ( ∑ XY )

X 25.59091 1.772857 14.43484 0 b=
N (∑ X
R-squared 0.958595 Mean dependent var 110
kaike info criterion -5.046124
a=YPRO
Schwarz criterion -4.985607
75.47907
r2=
[ N (∑ XY
[ N ∑ X −( ∑
2
1 4.9327272727 4.9327272727 4.93272727
2 5.6587878788 5.6587878788 5.65878788
3 6.3848484849 6.3848484849 6.38484848
4 7.1109090909 7.1109090909 7.11090909
5 7.836969697 7.836969697 7.8369697
6 8.563030303 8.563030303 8.5630303
7 9.2890909091 9.2890909091 9.28909091
8 10.0151515152 10.0151515152 10.0151515
9 10.7412121212 10.7412121212 10.7412121
10 11.4672727273 11.4672727273 11.4672727
11 12.1933333333 12.1933333333 12.1933333
12 12.9193939394 12.9193939394 12.9193939
13 13.6454545455 13.6454545455 13.6454545
14 14.3715151515 14.3715151515
15 15.0975757576 15.0975757576
EJERC HECTOR
años demanda
año x Y
1987 0 10 ls y c x Dependent Variable: Y
( ∑ Y ) ( ∑ X 2 ) −( ∑ )( ∑
X )
XY1988 1 20 Method: Least Squares
a= 2 1989 2 30 Date: 04/19/06 Time: 15:50
N ( ∑ X 2 ) −( ∑ ) X
1990 3 45 Sample: 1987 1997
1991 4 70 Included observations: 11
1992 5 90
N ( ∑ XY ) −( ∑ )( ∑ )
X Y 1993 6 125 Variable Coefficient
b= 2 1994 7 150
2
N ( ∑ X ) −( ∑ X )
1995 8 180 C -17.95455
1996 9 220 X 25.59091
a=YPROM −bXPROM
2
r2=
[ N (∑ XY )− (∑ X )(∑ Y ) ]
2 2
[ N ∑ X −(∑ X ) ][ N ∑ Y −( ∑ Y ) ]
2 2
2.- PRACTICA DIRIGIDA
demanda
año Y
1987 15
Time: 15:50 1988 26
1989 34
1990 42
1991 65
Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 1992 86
1993 98
10.48836 -1.711854 0.1211 1994 105
1.772857 14.43484 0 1995 120
AÑO
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
AÑO CONS
Dependent Variable: CONS 1987 654,545,454,268
Method: Least Squares 1988 217,090,909,069
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 10:37 1989 368,727,272,711
Sample: 1987 1997 1990 520,363,636,353
Included observations: 11 1991 671,999,999,994
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 1992 823,636,363,636
C -30123.60 1,389,362 -2,168,160 0.0000 1993 975,272,727,278
X 15.16364 0.697470 2,174,091 0.0000 1994 112,690,909,092
R-squared 0.981315 Mean dependent var 8,236,364 1995 127,854,545,456
Adjusted R- 0.979239 S.D. dependent var 5,076,864 1996 14,301,818,182
squared
S.E. of 7.315129 Akaike info criterion 6,980,732 1997 158,181,818,185
regression
Sum 4,816,000 Schwarz criterion 7,053,077 1998 173,345,454,549
squared
resid
CONSUMO
66.6
84.9
88.6
78
96.8
105.2
93.2
111.6
88.3
117
115.2
CONS CONSF CONSFSM RESID X XSM
15 654,545,454,268 654,545,454,268 845,454,545,732 1987 1987
26 217,090,909,069 217,090,909,069 429,090,909,313 1988 1988
34 368,727,272,711 368,727,272,711 -287,272,727,106 1989 1989
42 520,363,636,353 520,363,636,353 -100,363,636,353 1990 1990
65 671,999,999,994 671,999,999,994 -219,999,999,944 1991 1991
86 823,636,363,636 823,636,363,636 363,636,363,636 1992 1992
98 975,272,727,278 975,272,727,278 0.472727272176 1993 1993
105 112,690,909,092 112,690,909,092 -769,090,909,202 1994 1994
120 127,854,545,456 127,854,545,456 -785,454,545,621 1995 1995
145 14,301,818,182 14,301,818,182 19,818,181,796 1996 1996
170 158,181,818,185 158,181,818,185 118,181,818,154 1997 1997
173.345 1998
AÑO CONS
Se= 7.315129
demanda Intervalos
1998 173.345 159.007802 187.683107
1999 #REF! #REF! #REF!
2000 #REF! #REF! #REF!
EJERC HECTOR
años demanda
año Años X demanda Y X Y cuadrado xy
1987 -5 10 -5 $b 100.00 - 50.00
1988 -4 20 -4 400 - 80.00
1.4149733 2.50515
1.4313638 2.50515
1.4149733 2.51851
1.4623980 2.53148
1.4913617 2.55630
1.4771213 2.56820
1.5314789 2.57978
1.5440680 2.60206
1.5314789 2.62325
AÑO AÑO CONSUMO

1990 0 66.6
1991 1 84.9
1992 2 88.6
1993 3 78
1994 4 96.8
1995 5 105.2
1996 6 93.2
1997 7 111.6
1998 8 88.3
1999 9 117
2000 10 115.2
proyeccion
2001 11 118.714554
2002 12 122.660918
2003 13 126.607282
2004 14 130.553646
2005 15 134.50001
Y cuadrado XY AÑO AÑO CONSUMO
4435.56 -333 1990 -5 66.6
7208.01 -339.6 1991 -4 84.9
7849.96 -265.8 1992 -3 88.6
6084 -156 1993 -2 78
9370.24 -96.8 1994 -1 96.8
11067.04 0 1995 0 105.2
8686.24 93.2 1996 1 93.2
12454.56 223.2 1997 2 111.6
7796.89 264.9 1998 3 88.3
13689 468 1999 4 117
13271.04 576 2000 5 115.2
101912.54 434.1 proyeccion 1045.4
2001 6 118.714544
2002 7 122.660908
2003 8 126.607272
2004 9 130.553636
2005 10 134.5
Se= 94.2680715111
AÑO CONSUMO
1990 66.6
1991 84.9
1992 88.6
1993 78
1994 96.8
1995 105.2
1996 93.2
1997 111.6
1998 88.3
1999 117
2000 115.2
proyeccion
2001 118.715364
2002 122.661728
2003 126.608092
2004 130.554456
2005 134.50082
x cuadrado xy AÑO CONS
$b 25.00 -50 Se= 18.593871
$b 16.00 -80 proyección demanda Intervalos
1.4149733 2.50515 Date: 10/19/07 Time: 15:45
1.4313638 2.50515 a=
∑
(N Y ) (∑
(∑ (∑
XYX) 2−) − (∑
Sample: ∑1990
XX))(( ∑ a=YPROM−bXPRO
XY
Y )1999
)
b= 22
1.4149733
1.4623980
2.51851
2.53148
NN( ∑( ∑XX22))− ∑
−(Included
∑ XX) )observations: 10
1.4913617 2.55630 Variable Coefficient
1.4771213 2.56820
1.5314789 2.57978 C -1.317305
1.5440680 2.60206 Y 1.094365
1.5314789 2.62325
R-squared 0.904168
Adjusted R-s 0.892189
S.E. of regre 0.017767
Sum squared 0.002525
Log likelihood 27.23062
Durbin-Watson 2.544027

Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:26
Sample: 1990 2000
C ### 5.476701 13.74998 0

X ### 0.925731 4.262968 0.0021

Adjusted R-s 0.631986 S.D. dependent var 16.00477
S.E. of regre 9.709154 Akaike info criterion 7.546981
Sum squared 848.409 Schwarz criterion 7.619326
Log likelihood -39.5084 F-statistic 18.1729
Durbin-Watson 2.957856 Prob(F-statistic) 0.002102
Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:28
Sample: 1990 2000
C 95.036360 2.92742 32.46421 0

X 3.946364 0.925731 4.262968 0.0021


Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:46
Sample: 1990 2000
C -7777.959 1846.837 -4.211504 0.0023

X 3.946364 0.925731 4.262968 0.0021

Dependent Variable: Y
Time: 15:45 Date: 04/29/07 Time: 11:31
=YPROM−bXPROM Sample: 1990 1999
Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
0.320844 -4.105753 0.0034 C -1,330,041 0.324328 -4,100,915 0.0034

0.125965 8.687869 0 LOGY 1,099,293 0.127348 8,632,223 0.0000
Mean dependent var 1.469716 R-squared 0.903048 Mean dependent var 1,469,200
S.D. dependent var 0.05411 Adjusted R-s 0.890929 S.D. dependent var 0.054352
Akaike info criterion -5.046124 S.E. of regre 0.017950 Akaike info criterion -5,025,560
Schwarz criterion -4.985607 Sum squared 0.002578 Schwarz criterion -4,965,043
F-statistic 75.47907 Log likelihood 2,712,780 F-statistic 7,451,528
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000024 Durbin-Watson 2,539,184 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000025
EJERC HECTOR
años demanda
año x Y
III PROYECCION DE LA DEMANDA CONSIDERANDO LOS EFECTOS DEL CRECIMIENTO DE LA POBLACION Y LA INF
DEL CONSUMO POR HABITANTE DE LOS CAMBIOS EN LOS INGRESOS EN LOS PRECIOS O AMBOS SIMULTANEAM
REGRESION MULTIPLE
DEMANDA INGRESO PRECIO

64 57 8 Dependent Variable: DEM
71 59 10 Method: Least Squares
53 49 6 Date: 11/02/08 Time: 11:30
67 62 11 Sample: 1 12
55 51 8 Included observations: 12
58 50 7
77 55 10 Variable Coefficient Std. Error
57 48 9
56 52 10 C 3,651,216 1,616,781
51 42 6 ING 0.854610 0.451664
76 61 12 PREC 1,506,332 1,414,266
68 57 9
753 643 106 R-squared 0.708554 Mean dependent var
62.75 53.5833333 8.83333333 Adjusted R-s 0.643789 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regre 5,363,215 Akaike info criterion
Sum squared 2,588,766 Schwarz criterion
Log likelihood -3,545,593 F-statistic
Durbin-Watson 1,770,908 Prob(F-statistic)
METODO PRESUPUESTO DEL CONSUMIDOR
INGRESO CONSUMO NUMERO FR CONSUMO CONSUMO

ESTRATOS FAMILIAR TOTAL FAMILIAS FAMILIAR PONDERADO
ESTRATO 1 1000 3000 300 0.25210084 10 2.5210084034

1500 3500 280 0.23529412 12.5 2.9411764706
1700 3600 300 0.25210084 12 3.025210084
2000 4000 310 0.2605042 12.9032258 3.3613445378
14100 1190 1 11.848739496
ESTRATOII 2500 5000 250 20
tasa de crecimiento el ingreso 0,025

E1
Y 1,t
CE 1,t =CE 1,0
( )
Y 1,0 1
Y 1=1554 , 9(1+0, 025 ) =1593 ,77
0, 736
1593 , 77
CE 1,1 =11, 85 (
1554 , 62 )
años demanda
CE1,1 =12,067 año
1987
x
-5
Y
10
1988 -4 20
1989 -3 30
1990 -2 45
1991 -1 70
1992 0 90
1993 1 125
1994 2 150
1995 3 180
1996 4 220
1997 5 270
Metodo Series de Tiempo

AÑO Invierno Primavera Verano
1987 2 3 4
1988 5 6 7
1989 7 10 10
1990 10 17 16
1991 13 20 28
1992 19 34 34
1993 27 39 48
1994 26 44 58
1995 38 51 70
1996 44 67 81
1997 51 79 107
Promediol promedio M. Indice

Año Estación Demanda movil centrado Estacional
1987 Invierno 2
Primavera 3
Verano 4 2.5 2.88 1.39
Otoño 1 3.25 3.63 0.28
1988
Invierno 5 4 4.38 1.14
Primavera 6 4.75 4.88 1.23
Verano 7 5 5.25 1.33
Otoño 2 5.5 6.00 0.33
1989
Invierno 7 6.5 6.88 1.02
Primavera 10 7.25 7.38 1.36
Verano 10 7.5 7.88 1.27
Otoño 3 8.25 9.13 0.33
1990
Invierno 10 10 10.75 0.93
Primavera 17 11.5 11.38 1.49
Verano 16 11.25 11.63 1.38
Otoño 2 12 12.38 0.16
1991
Invierno 13 12.75 14.25 0.91
Primavera 20 15.75 16.63 1.20
Verano 28 17.5 18.25 1.53
Otoño 9 19 20.75 0.43
1992
Invierno 19 22.5 23.25 0.82
Primavera 34 24 23.25 1.46
Verano 34 22.5 23.50 1.45
Otoño 3 24.5 25.13 0.12
1993
Invierno 27 25.75 27.50 0.98
Primavera 39 29.25 30.25 1.29
Verano 48 31.25 31.13 1.54
Otoño 11 31 31.63 0.35
1994
Invierno 26 32.25 33.50 0.78
Primavera 44 34.75 36.13 1.22
Verano 58 37.50 39.00 1.49
Otoño 22 40.50 41.38 0.53
1995
Invierno 38 42.25 43.75 0.87
Primavera 51 45.25 45.13 1.13
Verano 70 45 45.75 1.53
Otoño 21 46.5 48.50 0.43
1996
Invierno 44 50.5 51.88 0.85
Primavera 67 53.25 54.13 1.24
Verano 81 55 55.88 1.45
Otoño 28 56.75 58.25 0.48
1997
Invierno 51 59.75 63.00 0.81
Primavera 79 66.25 66.88 1.18
Verano 107 67.5
Otoño 33
A POBLACION Y LA INFLUENCIA
O AMBOS SIMULTANEAMENTE.
datos INGRESO
1 57
2 59
3 49
4 62
5 51
t-Statistic Prob. 6 50
7 55
0.225832 0.8264 8 48
1,892,136 0.0910 9 52
1,065,098 0.3146 10 42
11 61
Mean dependent var 6,275,000 12 57
S.D. dependent var 8,986,100
Akaike info criterion 6,409,322
Schwarz criterion 6,530,549
1,094,027
ESTRATOS
INGRESO ESTRATO 1
PONDERADO ELASTICIDAD FRXELAST
252.10084034 0.500 0.1260504202

352.94117647 -0.300 -0.0705882353
428.57142857 0.427 0.1075268817 ESTRATOII
521.00840336 2.200 0.5731092437
1554.6218487 0.7360983103
METODO PRESUPUESTO
ESTRATOS
ESTRATO 1
ESTRATOII
Dependent Variable: DEMAN
Date: 10/18/15 Time: 08:49 1987
Sample: 2000 2010 1988
Included observations: 11 1989
1990
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 1991
1992
C 110 5.606265 19.62091 0 1993
TIEMP 25.59091 1.772857 14.43484 0 1994
1995
R-squared 0.958595 Mean dependent var 110 1996
Adjusted R-squa 0.953994 S.D. dependent var 86.6891 1997
S.E. of regressio 18.59388 Akaike info criterion 8.846508 1998
Sum squared res 3111.591 Schwarz criterion 8.918852 1999
Log likelihood -46.65579 Hannan-Quinn criter. 8.800904 2000
F-statistic 208.3647 Durbin-Watson stat 0.495462 2001
Prob(F-statistic) 0 2002
Otoño
1 10
2 20
3 30
2 45
9 70
3 90
11 125
22 150
21 180
28 220
33 270
0.2752296103
Invierno Primavera Verano Otoño

1987 1.39 0.28
1988 1.14 1.23 1.33 0.33
1989 1.02 1.36 1.27 0.33
1990 0.93 1.49 1.38 0.16
1991 0.91 1.20 1.53 0.43
1992 0.82 1.46 1.45 0.12
1993 0.98 1.29 1.54 0.35
1994 0.78 1.22 1.49 0.53
1995 0.87 1.13 1.53 0.43
1996 0.85 1.24 1.45 0.48
1997 0.81 1.18 SUMA DE
TOTAL 9.10498 12.80321 14.3609 3.4459 PROMEDIOS
PROMEDIO 0.91050 1.28032 1.43609 0.34459 3.97151
0.2292575802 0.3223764968 0.3615993465 0.0867665765 1 FR
0.9170303209 1.2895059873 1.4463973859 0.347066306 4 4
COMO SUMA DEBE SER 4, ENTONCES LA SUMA 3,97151 DEBE AJUSTARSE.
SUMA DE FRECUENCIA NUEVOS

PROMEDIOS RELATIVA VALORES
0.91050 0.2292575802 0.9170303209
1.2803206923 0.3223764968 1.2895059873
1.4360945359 0.3615993465 1.4463973859
0.3445941139 0.0867665765 0.347066306
3.97151 1 4
Proyectando para el año 1998

La demanda global proyectada es de 263,540 unidades entonces:
263,540/4 = 65.885
Estación Deman/estación FR Deman X FR

Invierno 65.885 0.9170303209 60.419
Primavera 65.885 1.2895059873 84.959
Verano 65.885 1.4463973859 95.296
Otoño 65.885 0.347066306 22.866
263.540
4. PRACTICA 5.- PRACTICA DIRIGIDA.
INGRESOS CANTIDAD DEMANDA
AÑOS POR PERSONA DEMANDADA Población 129
POR PERSONA 139
Precios ctes. (x) Unidades (y) Nº Hab (z) 109
1995 110 220 4.009 138
1996 118 240 4.113 114
1997 121 250 4.220 119
1998 127 255 4.330 146
1999 134 262 4.442 125
2000 140 265 4.558 119
2001 147 280 4.676 105
2002 154 285 4.798 147
2003 162 290 4.923 128
2004 169 300 5.051
PROYECCION EN BASE AL PRESUPUESTO DEL CONSUMIDOR
INGRESO CONSUMO NUMERO FR CONSUMO CONSUMO INGRESO

FAMILIAR TOTAL FAMILIAS FAMILIAR PONDERADOPONDERADOELASTICIDA
6 85 150 0.29069767 0.5666667 0.16472868 1.74418605 1.41176471

8 110 132 0.25581395 0.8333333 0.21317829 2.04651163 0.10322581
10 106 124 0.24031008 0.8548387 0.20542636 2.40310078 0.31732419
12 100 110 0.21317829 0.9090909 0.19379845 2.55813953 2.25
401 516 1 0.77713178 8.75193798
14 115 92 1.25
METODO PRESUPUESTO DEL CONSUMIDOR

INGRESO CONSUMO NUMERO FR CONSUMO CONSUMO INGRESO
FAMILIAR TOTAL FAMILIAS FAMILIAR PONDERADOPONDERADO
SEGMENTO
1 20 37.5 75 0.2697842 0.5000 0.1349 5.3957
2 30 49.5 76 0.2733813 0.6513 0.1781 8.2014
3 40 49.6 72 0.2589928 0.6889 0.1784 10.3597
4 50 49.5 55 0.1978417 0.9000 0.1781 9.8921
186.1 278 1 0.6694 33.8489
55 46 46 1.0000
cons en el año 1 e
C 1,1 =C 1,0
[ ]
Y 1,1
Y 1,0
proyecciones
-5 -17.9545455
-4 7.63636364
-3 33.2272727
-2 58.8181818
-1 84.4090909
0 110
1 135.590909
2 161.181818
3 186.772727
4 212.363636
5 237.954545
6 263.545455
7 289.136364
8 314.727273
9 340.318182
10 365.909091
INGRESO PRECIO Dependent Variable: CONS
117 20 Method: Least Squares
115 20 Date: 03/22/08 Time: 12:29
98 15 Sample: 1995 2004
146 22 Included observations: 10
125 18 Variable Coefficient Std. Error
114 15 C 95.1954 1,214,332
128 20 ING 1.22652 0.087076
98 19 R-squared 0.961241 Mean dependent var
118 23 Adjusted R- 0.956396 S.D. dependent var
94 18 squared
S.E. of 5.142370 Akaike info criterion
regression
126 24 Sum 2,115,517 Schwarz criterion
squared
128 19 Log -2,944,881 F-statistic
resid
likelihood
Durbin- 1,181,650 Prob(F-statistic)
Watson stat
FRXELAST
0.41039672
0.0264066
0.0762562
0.47965116
0.99271068
ELASTICIDA FRXELAST
0.60526316 0.16329042
0.17306397 0.04731245
1.22580645 0.31747505
1.1111111111 0.21982414
0.74790207
CONS CONSF AÑOS CONSFSM
220 230,112,226,173 1995 230
240 239,924,360,592 1996 237
250 243,603,910,999 1997 247
255 250,963,011,813 1998 252
t-Statistic Prob. 262 25,954,862,943 1999 258
7,839,321 0.0001 265 266,907,730,244 2000 266
1,408,554 0.0000 280 275,493,347,861 2001 274
Mean dependent var 2,647,000 285 284,078,965,478 2002 283
S.D. dependent var 2,462,632 290 293,891,099,897 2003 292
Akaike info criterion 6,289,762 300 302,476,717,513 2004 302
Schwarz criterion 6,350,279 2005 311
F-statistic 1,984,025 2006 320
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001 2007 329
respuesta 4
ING INGSM computadora lineal exponencial
110 110.0000 1995 i= 1,0488697 i=1,026003955
118 116.0000 1996
121 123.9312 1997
127 127.6720 1998
134 132.7571 1999
140 139.4993 2000
147 145.8798 2001
154 153.0015 2002
162 160.3257 2003
169 168.5876 2004 proy pobla

176.1092 2005 167.385 177.259 5182 1,612,619
183.3504 2006 173.870 185.922 5317 1,701,853
190.5916 2007 180.355 195.008 5455 1,794,472
Dependent Variable: ING

Date: 03/22/08 Time: 12:52
Sample: 1995 2004
C -12828.25000 3,320,916 -3,862,866 0.0000

X 6.48485 0.166087 3,904,485 0.0000
R-squared 0.994780 Mean dependent var 1,382,000

Adjusted R-squared 0.994127 S.D. dependent var 1,968,530
S.E. of regression 1,508,561 Akaike info criterion 3,837,047
Sum squared resid 1,820,606 Schwarz criterion 3,897,564
Log likelihood -1,718,523 F-statistic 1,524,501
Durbin-Watson stat 1,003,359 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
respuesta 5
DEMAN
Dependent Variable: DEMAN 129
Method: Least Squares 139
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 13:52 109
Sample: 2001 2012 138
Included observations: 12 114
119
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 146
125
C 39.72687000 2,671,200 1,487,229 0.1711 119
ING 0.390906 0.246639 1,584,932 0.1474 105
PREC 2,108,466 1,336,169 1,577,993 0.1490 147
128
Adjusted R-s 0.444133 S.D. dependent var 1,393,818
S.E. of regre 1,039,181 Akaike info criterion 7,732,232
Sum squared 9,719,083 Schwarz criterion 7,853,459
Log likelihood -4,339,339 F-statistic 5,394,452
Durbin-Watson 1,718,619 Prob(F-statistic) 0.028853

Date: 03/22/08 Time: 13:52
Sample: 2001 2012
C 39.72687 26.71200 1.487229 0.1711
ING 0.390906 0.246639 1.584932 0.1474
PREC 2.108466 1.336169 1.577993 0.1490
Adjusted R-squared 0.444133 S.D. dependent var 13.93818
AÑOS
DEMANF DEMANFSM ING INGSM PREC
127,632,211,815 1995 127,632,211,815 117 117 20
126,850,399,342 1996 128,348,873,248 115 118,833,333,333 20
109,662,664,402 1997 128,975,678,694 98 120,151,485,068 15
14,318,542,424 1998 128,489,307,232 146 118,799,231,041 22
126,542,530,139 1999 129,463,240,877 125 12,287,463,784 18
115,917,164,186 2000 129,821,407,774 114 125,059,757,599 15
131,932,180,416 2001 129,433,376,914 128 12,558,848,068 20
118,096,527,538 2002 12,961,207,079 98 12,732,602,569 19
134,348,515,403 2003 129,025,314,739 118 124,929,384,132 23
114,424,436,808 2004 129,103,029,191 94 123,947,402,034 18
139,584,231,079 128,140,938,987 126 11,949,494,894 24
129,823,714,632 128,305,146,689 128 118,312,385,909 19
128,217,316,813 117,911,420,149
128,083,956,473 1,167,354,937
127,950,596,134 115,559,567,251
Prob.
0.1711
0.1474
0.1490
126.5000
13.93818
exponencial
PRECSM DEMANDA logdeman INGRESO loging PRECIO
20 129 2.11058971 117 2.06818586 20
20 139 2.14301480 115 2.06069784 20
20 109 2.03742650 98 1.99122608 15
20 138 2.13987909 146 2.16435286 22
20 114 2.05690485 125 2.09691001 18
20 119 2.07554696 114 2.05690485 15
20 146 2.16435286 128 2.10720997 20
20 125 2.09691001 98 1.99122608 19
20 119 2.07554696 118 2.07188201 23
20 105 2.02118930 94 1.97312785 18
20 147 2.16731733 126 2.10037055 24
20 128 2.10720997 128 2.10720997 19
20
20
20
logprec logdeman loging logprec Dependent Variable: LOGDE
1.30103000 2.11058971 2.06818586 1.30103000 Method: Least Squares
1.30103000 2.14301480 2.06069784 1.30103000 Date: 03/22/08 Time: 14:20
1.17609126 2.03742650 1.99122608 1.17609126 Sample(adjusted): 1 12
1.34242268 2.13987909 2.16435286 1.34242268 Included observations: 12 aft
1.25527251 2.05690485 2.09691001 1.25527251
1.17609126 2.07554696 2.05690485 1.17609126 Variable
1.30103000 2.16435286 2.10720997 1.30103000
1.27875360 2.09691001 1.99122608 1.27875360 C
1.36172784 2.07554696 2.07188201 1.36172784 LOGING
1.25527251 2.02118930 1.97312785 1.25527251 LOGPREC
1.38021124 2.16731733 2.10037055 1.38021124
1.27875360 2.10720997 2.10720997 1.27875360 R-squared
Adjusted R-s
S.E. of regre
Sum squared
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson
Depende
Method:
Date: 03
Sample(
Included
V
LO
LO
R-square
Adjusted
Dependent Variable: LOGDEM
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 14:20
Sample(adjusted): 1 12
ncluded observations: 12 after adjusting endpoints LOGDEM LOGDEMF
211,058,971 210,581,671,934
Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 21,430,148 210,295,120,122
20,374,265 203,800,466,746
0.914896 0.387791 2,359,247 0.0427 213,987,909 215,532,710,464
0.382680 0.222004 1,723,756 0.1188 205,690,485 210,275,955,672
0.307039 0.197178 1,557,165 0.1539 207,554,696 206,313,864,228
216,435,286 212,075,047,949
0.562546 Mean dependent var 2,099,657 209,691,001 206,952,600,178
0.465334 S.D. dependent var 0.048115 207,554,696 212,586,776,276
0.035182 Akaike info criterion -3,644,245 20,211,893 205,539,055,617
0.011140 Schwarz criterion -3,523,019 216,731,733 21,424,448,905
2,486,547 F-statistic 5,786,793 210,720,997 211,391,075,763
1,746,683 Prob(F-statistic) 0.024221
Dependent Variable: LOGDEM

Date: 03/22/08 Time: 14:20
Sample(adjusted): 1 12
Included observations: 12 after adjusting endpoints
C 0.914896 0.387791 2.359247 0.0427
LOGING 0.382680 0.222004 1.723756 0.1188
LOGPREC 0.307039 0.197178 1.557165 0.1539
Adjusted R-squared 0.465334 S.D. dependent var 0.048115
LOGDEMSM LOGING LOGINGSM LOGPREC LOGPRESM
210,581,671,934 206,818,586 206,818,586 130,103 130,103
210,830,567,937 206,069,784 207,468,987,833 130,103 130,103
211,039,424,411 199,122,608 20,794,016,278 117,609,126 130,103
210,728,378,539 216,435,286 207,379,812,839 134,242,268 130,103
21,106,603,903 209,691,001 208,596,559,716 125,527,251 130,103
211,152,517,734 205,690,485 209,319,680,615 117,609,126 130,103
210,908,764,794 210,720,997 209,501,327,728 130,103 130,103
210,945,697,324 199,122,608 210,093,221,252 12,787,536 130,103
210,637,401,611 207,188,201 20,919,449,874 136,172,784 130,103
210,634,539,539 197,312,785 208,806,646,087 125,527,251 130,103
210,172,703,418 210,037,055 207,086,947,007 138,021,124 130,103
210,219,088,775 210,720,997 206,549,617,377 12,787,536 130,103
210,190,302,213 206,340,122,878 130,103
210,114,653,751 205,838,663,092 130,103
21,003,900,529 205,337,203,305 130,103
LOGDEMSM
2.1058167193
2.1083056794
2.1103942441
2.1072837854
2.1106603903
2.1115251773
2.1090876479
2.1094569732
2.1063740161
2.1063453954
2.1017270342
2.1021908878
2.1019030221 126.44540
2.1011465375 126.22534
2.1003900529 126.00566
A B
AÑOS MOLIENDA MOLIENDA DIFERENC
A MANO GRANDE IAL
0 36,750 90,500 -53,750

1 36,750 17,195 19,555
2 36,750 17,195 19,555
3 36,750 19,457 17,293
4 36,750 19,457 17,293
5 36,750 22,172 14,578
6 36,750 22,172 14,578
VAN Mrg.
van 11% $192,222.27 $172,002.62 $20,219.65
van 25% $145,214.83 $146,269.95 ($1,055.12)
VAN Mrg 11% $20,219.65

TIR Mrg 24.0893%
Se tienen dos proyectos alternativos

Una pequeña irrigación y una gran irrigación
con los sgtes flujos de fondos
A B
AÑOS MOLIENDA MOLIENDA DIFERENC
A MANO GRANDE IAL
0 -10,500 -2,200 -8,300

1 1,260 540 720
2 1,680 720 960
3 1,680 720 960
4 2,310 990 1,320
5 2,310 990 1,320
6 3,360 1,440 1,920
7 3,360 1,440 1,920
8 3,360 1,440 1,920
VAN Mrg.
van 11% ($2,084.00) $1,406.86 ($3,490.86)
van 25% ($4,972.72) $168.83 ($5,141.55)
VAN Mrg 11% ($3,490.86)

TIR Mrg -3.4366%
1. Se tiene dos proyectos Alternativos, una gran empresa textil y una pequeña empresa textil con los
AÑO GRAN PEQUEÑA

EMPRESA EMPRESA
TEXTIL TEXTIL
0 -45000 -8000
1 6300 1085
2 8100 1395
3 8100 1395
4 11700 2015
5 11700 2015
6 15300 2635
7 15300 2635
8 15300 2635
Si el costo de capital es 12,5% se pide calcular el VAN,TIR,

TIR Mg,VANMg, B/C Mg.De acuerdo a ello decidir cuál de los proyectos se debería ejecutar.
ueña empresa textil con los sgtes flujos.
se debería ejecutar.
CANTIDAD INGRESO
AÑOS DEMAN/PERS POR PERS. Y=97.53147+1.211366X
1990 220 110 PROYECCION
1991 240 116 CONS POT 97 284.081834
1992 250 121
1993 255 127 CONS 2000 312.4883667
1994 262 134 CONS 2001 323.236211535
1995 265 140 CONS 2002 334.5214486118
1996 280 147 CONS 2003 346.3709475423
1997 285 154 CONS TOT 2000 318738134.034
1998 290 162 CONS TOT 2001 336294954.481
1999 300 169 CONS TOT 2002 354996837.4384
CONS TOT 2003 374923052.9095
Date: 06/27/06 Time: 12:50
Sample: 1990 1999
C 97.5314700 12.12442 8.044214 0

INGRES 1.211366000 0.087046 13.91646 0

POBLACION TOTAL
POBLACION MILLONES POBLACION
AÑOS ESTRATO A ESTRATO B ESTRATO C TOTAL
1 0.10 1 2 3.10
2 0.11 1.1 2.24 3.45
3 0.12 1.21 2.51 3.84
4 0.14 1.33 2.81 4.28
5 0.14 1.46 3.15 4.75
6 0.15 1.61 3.52 5.28
7 0.16 1.77 3.95 5.88
8 0.48 1.95 4.12 6.55
9 0.20 2.14 4.95 7.29
10 0.25 2.36 5.55 8.16
1. ANALISIS DE CORRELACION Y REGRESION LINEAL DE LA TENDENCIA HISTORICA DE

AÑOS TOTAL Method: Least Squares
1 4.8 Date: 03/17/08 Time: 21:55
2 5.6 Sample: 2001 2010
3 6.5 Included observations: 10
4 7.3
5 8.1 Variable Coefficient
6 8.5
7 9.1 C 4,206,667
8 9.8 X 0.726061
9 10.4
10 11.9 R-squared 0.987983
Adjusted R-squar 0.986481
S.E. of regression 0.257140
Sum squared resi 0.528970
Log likelihood 0.507661
Durbin-Watson sta 1,482,912
2. ANALISIS DE CORRELACION Y REGRESION LINEAL DE LA SERIE HISTORICA DEL CO
POBLACION CONSUMO Dependent Variable: CONS

TOTAL TOTAL Method: Least Squares
3.1 4.8 Date: 03/17/08 Time: 22:10
3.45 5.6 Sample: 2001 2010
4.28 7.3
4.75 8.1 Variable Coefficient
5.28 8.5
5.88 9.1 C 1,418,667
6.55 9.8 POB 1,289,717
7.29 10.4
8.16 11.9 R-squared 0.973323
Adjusted R-squar 0.969989
S.E. of regression 0.383129
Sum squared resi 1,174,305
Log likelihood -3,479,841
Durbin-Watson sta0.661466
3.- VERIFICACION DE LA CORRELACION DOBLE LOGARITMICA CON LOS DATOS CONOCIDOS
POBLACION LOG P CONSUMO LOG C

TOTAL TOTAL
3.1 0.49136169 4.8 0.68124124
3.45 0.53781910 5.6 0.74818803
3.84 0.58433122 6.5 0.81291336
4.28 0.63144377 7.3 0.86332286
4.75 0.67669361 8.1 0.90848502
5.28 0.72263392 8.5 0.92941893
5.88 0.76937733 9.1 0.95904139
6.55 0.81624130 9.8 0.99122608
7.29 0.86272753 10.4 1.01703334
8.16 0.91169016 11.9 1.07554696
LOG P LOG C
Dependent Variable: LOGC
0.49136169 0.6812412374 Method: Least Squares
0.5378191 0.748188027 Date: 03/17/08 Time: 22:22
0.58433122 0.8129133566 Sample: 2001 2010
0.67669361 0.9084850189
0.72263392 0.9294189257 Variable
0.76937733 0.9590413923
0.8162413 0.9912260757 C
0.86272753 1.0170333393 LOGP
0.91169016 1.0755469614
R-squared
Adjusted R-square
Q=1,9666 P0,864 S.E. of regression
Sum squared resi
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson sta
4. PROYECCION Y EXTRAPOLACION DE LA TENDENCIA HISTORICA
r= 0,1131
PROYECION DE LA POBLACION TOTAL Y CONSUMO APARENTE
AÑO POBL TOT Q=4,21+0.726t
t 11 9.06 12.19
Pt =Po (1+0,113) 12 10.05 12.92
13 11.16 13.65
0.11353318 14 12.39 14.37
15 13.75 15.10
0.1111111111 16 15.26 15.82
17 16.94 16.55
18 18.81 17.28
19 20.87 18.00
20 23.17 18.73

Date: 03/17/08 Time: 22:58
Sample: 2001 2010
C 4,206,667 0.175660 2,394,773 0.0000

X 0.726061 0.028310 2,564,658 0.0000

Adjusted R-s 0.986481 S.D. dependent var 2,211,586
Log likelihood0.507661 F-statistic 6,577,470
Durbin-Watson 1,482,912 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
PROYECCION ING PROY POBLAC
53147+1.211366X 2000 177.45 1020000
2001 186.32 1040400
2002 195.64 1061208
2003 205.42 1082432
INGRESO FAMILIAR CONSUMO APARENTE

A B C A B
30 14 3.5
34.5 15.7 3.9
39.7 17.6 4.2 0.95 4.4
45.6 19.7 4.7
52.5 22 5.1
60.3 24.7 5.6
69.4 27.6 6.2
79.9 30.9 6.8
91.3 34.7 7.5
105.5 38.8 8.3 1.15 9.2
AL DE LA TENDENCIA HISTORICA DEL CONSUMO APARENTE

Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
0.175660 2,394,773 0.0000

0.028310 2,564,658 0.0000

Akaike info criterion 0.298468
Schwarz criterion 0.358985
EAL DE LA SERIE HISTORICA DEL CONSUMO APARENTE Y LA POBLACION TOTAL
Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
0.415003 3,418,453 0.0091

0.075489 1,708,473 0.0000

Akaike info criterion 1,095,968
Schwarz criterion 1,156,485
CON LOS DATOS CONOCIDOS

ndent Variable: LOGC
od: Least Squares
03/17/08 Time: 22:22
le: 2001 2010
ed observations: 10
0.293726 0.037130 7,910,677 0.0000

0.863632 0.052071 1,658,554 0.0000

0.968207 S.D. dependent var 0.123411
0.022005 Akaike info criterion -4,618,244
0.003874 Schwarz criterion -4,557,727
2,509,122 F-statistic 2,750,800
TAL Y CONSUMO APARENTE 0,864

Q=1,9666 P
Q=1.418667+1,2897 exponencial
13.08 13.17
14.40 14.45
15.87 15.85
17.50 17.38
19.82 19.06
21.34 20.91
23.59 22.94
26.09 25.16
28.88 27.60
31.99 30.27
RESULTADOS PROY Eviews

obs CONSF CONSFSM POBLA POBLASM
2001 5.41679027702 5.41679027702 3.1 3.1
2002 5.86819129789 5.97910697731 3.45 3.536
2003 6.37118100687 6.31959231877 3.84 3.8
2004 6.93865657596 6.87417071584 4.28 4.23
2005 7.54482366113 7.50613214506 4.75 4.72
2006 8.22837377845 8.15099074631 5.28 5.22
2007 9.00220409995 8.91192389578 5.88 5.81
2008 9.86631462562 9.77603442145 6.55 6.48
2009 10.8207053555 10.7304251513 7.29 7.22
2010 11.9427593216 11.7750960853 8.16 8.03
2011 13.0648132878 9.03
2012 14.186867254 9.9
2013 15.3089212201 10.77
C TOTAL
4.8
5.6
1.15 6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
2.55 11.9
POBLA POBLASM
3.1 3.1
3.45 3.536
3.84 3.8
4.28 4.23
4.75 4.72
5.28 5.22
5.88 5.81
6.55 6.48
7.29 7.22
8.16 8.03
9.03
9.9
10.77

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ANALISIS DE LA DEMANDA ACTUAL

CONS CARNE INGRESO

CONS CARNE Y INGRESO X X

y PROMEDIO 1.46971573 2.54670112

3.46286691 1.95423627 Dependent Variable: CONS

R-squared 0.904168 Mean dependent var

a= -1.317305287 ls logc c logy Adjusted R-squ 0.892189 S.D. dependent var

S.E. of regress 0.017767 Akaike info criterion

Sum squared re 0.002525 Schwarz criterion

Log likelihood 27.23062 F-statistic

Dependent Variable: LOGC

Mean dependent var 1,773,720

Akaike info criterion -2,520,132

Schwarz criterion -2,459,615

AÑO AÑO CONSUMO

Y cuadrado XY AÑO AÑO CONSUMO Dependent Variable: CONS

AÑO CONSUMO Dependent Variable: CONS

para el ejemplo anterior

Q2010 =115 ,2(1+0,056)10 =198,60

Adjusted R-squ 0.892189 S.D. dependent var

Dependent Variable: CONS

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

75.30455 5.476701 13.74998 0

0.668788 Mean dependent var 95.03636

Dependent Variable: CONS

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

0.668788 Mean dependent var 95.03636

Dependent Variable: CONS

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

-7777.959 1846.837 -4.211504 0.0023

0.668788 Mean dependent var 95.03636

Y CUADRADO AÑO CONS

Dependent Variable: CONS

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 4.206667 0.17566 23.94773 0

R-squared 0.987983 Mean dependent var 8.2

C 110 5.606265 19.62091 0 N ( ∑ XY )

AÑO AÑO CONSUMO

Dependent Variable: CONS

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C ### 5.476701 13.74998 0

R-squared 0.668788 Mean dependent var 95.03636

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 95.036360 2.92742 32.46421 0

R-squared 0.668788 Mean dependent var 95.03636

Dependent Variable: CONS

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -7777.959 1846.837 -4.211504 0.0023

R-squared 0.668788 Mean dependent var 95.03636

0.320844 -4.105753 0.0034 C -1,330,041 0.324328 -4,100,915 0.0034

DEMANDA INGRESO PRECIO

METODO PRESUPUESTO DEL CONSUMIDOR

INGRESO CONSUMO NUMERO FR CONSUMO CONSUMO

ESTRATO 1 1000 3000 300 0.25210084 10 2.5210084034

tasa de crecimiento el ingreso 0,025

Metodo Series de Tiempo

Promediol promedio M. Indice

252.10084034 0.500 0.1260504202

Invierno Primavera Verano Otoño

SUMA DE FRECUENCIA NUEVOS

Proyectando para el año 1998

Estación Deman/estación FR Deman X FR

PROYECCION EN BASE AL PRESUPUESTO DEL CONSUMIDOR

INGRESO CONSUMO NUMERO FR CONSUMO CONSUMO INGRESO