Professional Documents
Culture Documents
fig. 01 / Waiting for the downturn? — fig. 02 / Slowly, but surely, equities are losing momentum
Global* real M1, y/y% three-month average, six months adv (Left) Global* real M1, y/y% three-month average, 2nd derivative, six months adv (Left)
JPM Global composite PMI (Right) MSCI World, y/y%, 2nd derivative
16 60
24 Forecast assumes year-over-year returns decline to 1 by 120
59 October 2018. It would imply a 2.7% downside from current
14 58 21 levels, to a end-Jan price on the MSCI world of $2040. 100
57 18
12 80
56 15
55 60
10 12
54
9 40
53
8
52 6 20
6 51 3 0
50
0
4 49 -20
48 -3
-40
2 47 -6
* U.S., China, EZ and the U.K.; latest monthly data. 46 -9 -60
* U.S., China, EZ and the U.K.; latest monthly data.
0 45
-12 -80
Jun 09 Jul 10 Aug 11 Oct 12 Nov 13 Jan 15 Feb 16 Mar 17 May 18 Jun 19
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 18 19
fig. 03 / The trend that won’t stop — fig. 04 / Patiently waiting for the signal
U.S. vs EZ interest rate differentials, two-year yields, (Left) U.S. yield curve, five-year yields less two-year yields, %
U.S. vs EZ interest rate differentials, rate futures*, (Right) 1.8
3.5 3.5
* Dec 2019 expectations, using ERZ9 and EDZ9 1.6
3.0 1.4
3
1.2
2.5
1.0
2.5 0.8
2.0
0.6
1.5
2 0.4
1.0 0.2
1.5 0.0
0.5
-0.2
0.0 1 -0.4
14 15 16 17 18 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 18