Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

South China Sea (Air Defence
Identification Zone, US-China
Trade Off, & Vietnam and
China) and Malaysia-Singapore
Relations
June 4, 2018
We request your input on a number of issues to be discussed in future reports.
Q1. As a result of recent moves by China in the South China Sea, when do you think
China would set up an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIC) over the South China- in
2019 or in 2020? Does China presently have the capacity to set up an ADIZ over the
South China Sea? If not, what does it lack?
ANSWER: First, China is unlikely to declare an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ)
over the South China Sea this year or next because it does not have the air power and
supporting services in place to support an ADIZ. While China has airfields and hangars
on three features in the Spratlys it does not yet have the operational experience to
sustain enforcement of the ADIZ. China could quickly land fighter aircraft on Fiery
Cross, Subi and Mischief reefs but it does not yet have the maintenance and support
personnel in place to sustain operations.
Second. China is likely to act cautiously after the U.S. Secretary of Defense James
Mattis reaffirmed that there would be consequences as a result of recent efforts by
China to militarize the South China Sea. If China declared an ADIZ and attempted to
enforce it, this would precipitate a confrontation with the United States.
At the same time, U.S.-China trade issues and denuclearization on the Korean
peninsula command higher priority. These two issues would act as constraints on
China’s behaviour.
Third, many defense analysts say that China would need to occupy and construct
facilities on Scarborough Shoal in order to establish radar coverage to achieve
complete maritime domain awareness over the South China Sea.
Q2. Prime Minister Mahathir has returned to office in Malaysia. Do you think Malaysia
will have a good relationship with Singapore as current ASEAN Chair for 2018? Why
and why not?
ANSWER: The re-election of Mahathir as prime minister of Malaysia has already been
greeted by Singapore. Lee Kuan Yew has also passed from the scene so their personal
rivalry will not affect bilateral relations. Prime Minister Mahathir has immense
domestic issues to contend with and he needs international support. He will give
priority to domestic issues. Singapore’s role as ASEAN Chair will not be a problem for
 2

Malaysia. In the past irritants were bilateral and driven by a clash of personalities. This
is no longer the case.
Q3. The U.S. and China have recently agreed with each other to scale down their
potential trade conflicts. Do you think that they now agree with each other on issues
like North Korea and South China Sea? Why?
ANSWER: The trade issues facing China and the United States have yet to be resolved.
There is no sign that the two have reached any spin off agreement over the Korean
nuclear issue or the South China Sea. In fact, there are clear differences between
Beijing and Washington. President Trump attributed North Korea’s recent criticism of
Trump Administration officials to Xi Jinping’s influence on Kim Jong-un after his second
meeting with Xi.
There are clear signs that tensions are rising between China and the U.S. over the
South China Sea. China is reacting to stepped up U.S. freedom of navigation
operational patrols, and the U.S. is responding to increased militarization by China
(electronic jammers, the installation of anti-ship cruise missiles and surface to air
missiles, and the landing of nuclear capable bombers on Woody Island for exercises).
Q4. Some observers have stated that the U.S. says something 'strong' verbally without
any concrete action on the South China Sea issue. This is because China has promised
to buy a lot of American goods. Do you see any linkage?
ANSWER: Secretary of Defense JamesMattis approved an annual program of U.S.
freedom of navigation operational patrols (FONOPS) in May last year. Ten patrols have
been conducted; the most recent involved two U.S. warships while all the previous
FONOPS conducted by the Trump Administration have been by a one naval ship.
The U.S. also conducts continuous bomber presence patrols by B-52s and recently one
flew from Guam to the east coast of China. The U.S. withdrew its invitation to China
to participate in this year’s Rim of the Pacific multinational exercise in response to the
landing of a Chinese nuclear bomber on Woody Islands. Secretary Mattis termed this
a minor consequence and promised more serious consequences in future. So there
has been no China-U.S. quid pro quo over the South China Sea.
China’s offer to buy more U.S. goods has not prevented the U.S. from threatening
further action such as more tariffs. Trade issues are a major unresolved issue between
Washington and Beijing.
Q5. What would be you advice the Vietnamese government, particularly after the
Shangri-La Dialogue where China is said it would ignore all critics and statements on
its moves on South China Sea?
ANSWER: Vietnam should be reassured that Secretary Mattis has reaffirmed the U.S.
commitment to provide leadership to assist regional states build up their maritime
security capacity. China may well continue to ignore the ruling by the Arbitral Tribunal
but the U.S. is likely to not only step up its presence in the South China Sea but enlist
the support of its allies.
This is a potentially dangerous time as President Trump has staked his prestige on
achieving results on trade with China just as the United States prepares to conduct
mid-term elections. Trump will want to be seen as a strong leader; this could mean
 3

more economic pressure by Washington and a push back by the U.S. Indo-Pacific
Command in the South China Sea.
Vietnam should step up defence engagement with the United States and quietly
welcome and support an increased naval presence in the South China Sea by the U.S.
and its allies.
The Vietnamese Navy has been invited to the Rim of the Pacific multilateral exercises;
it should accept this invitation and participate. The U.S. is looking to change
regulations to make arms and defense technology sales easier such as trainer aircraft.
Vietnam should explore these opportunities.
Vietnam should also strive to make its strategic partnership with the Philippines more
vibrant through military exchanges, joint naval patrols and friendly ship visits.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “South China Sea (Air Defence Identification
Zone, US-China Trade Off, & Vietnam and China) and Malaysia-Singapore Relations,”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June, 2018. All background briefs are posted on
Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type,
UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.