6/20/2018

Maritime Security:
South China Sea and
Developing a Code of Conduct

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to
Australia-Vietnam 1.5 Track Dialogue
East Hotel, Kingston, A.C.T.
June 19, 2018

Everyday Challenges to Maritime Security

• Illegal Unreported Unregulated (IUU) Fishing
• Piracy and armed robbery at sea
• Chinese Coast Guard seize fish from Filipino fishermen near Scarborough
Shoal (May incident)
• Chinese threats regarding oil exploration
• Repsol (2017) and Repsol (2018)
• China challenges to transit of military aircraft and ships in its “security
alert zone”
• No substantial threats to commercial shipping in South China Sea

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Conceptualizing Militarization
To give a military To make preparations
character to… for war

Dual civil-
military

Piers, wharfs and

helipads

Facilities on three Chinese features

Red Line?
could house 2,400 military personnel

Recent Chinese Militarisation 2018

• Military Cargo Aircraft
• Xian Y-7 and Shaanxi Y-8 transport
• Mobile Electronic Jammers
• Mischief Reef
• Anti-ship Cruise Missiles
• YJ-62 anti-ship cruise missile
• Surface-to-Air Missiles
• HQ-9 long range active radar homing
• Surface-to-Air Missiles, Woody Island

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Chinese Naval
Exercises/Combat
Drills off Hainan
Island
Late March 2018
Chinese anti-
aircraft naval drills
June 2018

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Recent Chinese Militarisation

May 18, 2018

Chinese H-6K
nuclear bomber

Woody Island, Paracels

Chinese H-6K
nuclear
bombers have
3,500 km
combat radius
covering all of
South China
Sea, Vietnam
and most of the
Philippines

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U.S. Admiral Philip S. Davidson

• “Once [artificial islands are] occupied, China will be able to extend its
influence thousands of miles to the south and project power deep
into Oceania…
• “The PLA will be able to use these bases to challenge US presence in
the region, and any forces deployed to the islands would easily
overwhelm the military forces of any other South China Sea-
claimants…
• “In short, China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in
all scenarios short of war with the United States.”
• Testimony to U.S. Senate Armed Services Subcommittee, April 2018

US FONOPs Under the Trump Administration

1
USS Dewey (DDG-105) May 24, 2017 Mischief Reef and other artificial islands

2
USS Stethem (DDG-63) Jul 2, 2017 Triton Island

3
USS John S. McCain (DDG-56) Aug 10, 2017 Mischief Reef

4
USS Chafee (DDG-90) Oct 10, 2017 Paracel Islands

5
USS Hopper (DDG-70) Jan 17, 2018 Scarborough Shoal

6
USS Mustin (DDG-89) March 2018 Mischief Reef

7 UK and
USS Higgins (DDG-76) and USS May 27, 2018 Tree, Woody, Triton and Lincoln islands,
France in
Antietam (CG-54) Paracels
future?

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Most Recent US FONOP – May 27, 2018

USS Higgins (DDG-76) USS Antietam (CG-54)

Hypothetical Sea Maneuvering by U.S. Navy

Three U.S. Aircraft Carrier Battle Groups Deployed

February-March 2018

USS Carl Vinson CVN-70

USS Ronald Reagan CVN-76

USS Theodore Roosevelt CVN-71

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U.S. Continuous Bomber Presence Patrols
U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis
Shangri-La Dialogue, Singapore, June 2, 2018
• China's militarization of artificial
features in the South China Sea
includes the deployment of anti-ship
missiles, surface-to-air missiles,
electronic jammers, and more
recently, the landing of bomber
aircraft at Woody Island.
• Despite China's claims to the contrary,
the placement of these weapons
systems is tied directly to military use
for the purposes of intimidation and
coercion.
6/20/2018
• I think there are consequences to
China ignoring the international
community…
• Nothing wrong with competition,
nothing wrong with having strong
positions, but when it comes down to
introducing what they have done in
the South China Sea, there are
consequences…
• So, there are consequences that will
continue to come home to roost, so to
speak, with China if they do not find
the way to work more collaboratively
with all of the nations who have
interest.
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Implementing the
Declaration on Conduct of Parties
• China Insists Full Implementation of the DOC is a
Prerequisite for a Code of Conduct

• a. marine environmental protection;

• b. marine scientific research;
• c. safety of navigation and communication at sea;*
• d. search and rescue operation; and
• e. combating transnational crime, including but not limited
to trafficking in illicit drugs, piracy and armed robbery at
sea, and illegal traffic in arms.

• *Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, Hot Lines

Developing a Code of Conduct

Will Be a Protracted Process
Issues
• Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
• Individual member states or unified group of ten
states?
• Geographic scope
• Legally binding
• Adjudication of disputes
• Enforcement
• Interests of non-claimant user states

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Maritime Security:
South China Sea and
Developing a Code of Conduct

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to
Australia-Vietnam 1.5 Track Dialogue
East Hotel, Kingston, A.C.T.
June 19, 2018