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Effects of Rising Eustatic Sea Level on Earthquake Frequency along Shelf Areas of
Pakistan

Article · September 2011

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American Journal of Scientific Research
ISSN 1450-223X Issue 20(2011), pp.76-81
© EuroJournals Publishing, Inc. 2011
http://www.eurojournals.com/ajsr.htm

Effects of Rising Eustatic Sea Level on Earthquake

Frequency along Shelf Areas of Pakistan

Muhammad Usman
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Bahria University
Islamabad, Pakistan
E-mail: usman727@yahoo.com

Kashif Adeel
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Bahria University
Islamabad, Pakistan
E-mail: kashif-noor@hotmail.com

Masood Ali Khan

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Bahria University
Islamabad, Pakistan
E-mail: makgeophysics@gmail.com

Sehrish Wali
Comsats Institute of Information and Technology Abbotabad, Pakistan
E-mail: sehrish_wali@yahoo.com

Najeeb Ahmad Amir

Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) Islamabad, Pakistan
E-mail: najeeb_seismic@yahoo.com

Abstract

In this paper the study is made to observe the effects of rising eustatic sea level on
earthquake frequency along the shelf areas of Pakistan. The seismic data is of duration
1961 to 2008 and it has been provided by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
Pakistan’s continental shelf shows an increasing trend in earthquake frequency
which can be correlated to rising sea level in same duration, caused by extensive glacier
melting as a result of global warming. The study shows that the earthquakes of magnitude
3-3.9 show increasing trend with the passage of time. The same magnitude range was also
found to be increasing in the northern Pakistan. It leads to infer that the rising temperature
is enhancing the earthquake frequency in the glacial and shelf areas as the load (in the form
of water and debris) is being removed from glacial areas and is being deposited on the
shelf. So both the areas are responding in the form of earthquakes of magnitude 3 to 3.9.
Further study shows that the depth affected by the increased stresses in the off coast area of
Pakistan is probably no more than 40 km.

Keywords: Global Warming; Glacier Melting; Rise in Eustatic Sea Level; Increase in
Seismic Activity in Shelf Areas.
Effects of Rising Eustatic Sea Level on Earthquake
Frequency along Shelf Areas of Pakistan 77

1. Introduction
Throughout the world the glacier melting and subsequent rise in sea level has been reported. The main
cause for these phenomenons is thought to be the global warming. In the recent decades, there is a
trend towards increasing seismic activity throughout the world. Some studies suggest that all over the
world, the last twenty years data shows a noticeable increase in the number of earthquakes per year.
This is because of tremendous increase in number of seismograph stations and the improved global
communications [1]. In our previous researches it has been proved that the seismic activity in the
northern Pakistan has been increasing where the source, station and seismographs have remained same
during the period 1961 to 2005. In this area the temperature has been increased by 0.52 0C [2]. So, the
main cause for enhanced seismic activity is thought to be the temperature. The rising temperature
might be causing the glaciers of the area to melt which are releasing pressure on the Earth and the
Earth may possibly rebound to cause Earthquakes [3]. The total depth affected by this process is
probably no more than 160 km [2] and magnitude may fall in the range of 3-4.9 “in press” [4].
Seasonal studies show that, in the northern Pakistan, winters are more earthquake prone than the
summers [5].
When the glaciers melt, the load is deposited in the ocean in the form of water and debris and
may create pressure on oceanic lithosphere and can become the cause of increased seismic activity in
the oceans, especially along the shelf areas. So, in this paper the research has been carried out to study
the off cost area of Pakistan and to find out the effect of rising sea level and Earthquake frequency
along the shelf. Pakistan’s continental shelf extends to 200 nautical miles (370 km) to the baseline
from which the breadth of territorial sea is measured [6] (Fig. 1). United Nation Environment Program
(UNEP) has included Pakistan in the group of countries which are vulnerable to the impact of rising
sea level [7]. The sea level along Karachi coast is rising at 1-2mm/year, if present rise in sea level
continues than in next 50 years the sea level along Pakistan coast will be 50mm (5cm) [8]. Moreover
when the glaciers melt the load is deposited on ocean in the form of water and debris. Recently,
throughout the world, the loss in mass of glaciers and subsequent rise in sea level is reported. Changes
in eustatic sea level since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) create a differential load across coastlines
globally. The resulting plate bending in response to this load alters the state of stress within the
lithosphere [9]. These stress perturbations may perceptibly alter the seismic cycle of major plate
boundary faults, but such effects are more likely to be observed on nearby secondary faults with a
lower tectonic stress accumulation rate. In the specific instance of rapid sea level rise at the Black Sea,
the seismic cycle of the nearby North Anatolian fault was likely significantly advanced [9].

Figure 1: The area bounded within red line shows the estimated boundary for Pakistan’s continental shelf
which is the study area (modified Google Earth image)
78 Muhammad Usman, Kashif Adeel, Masood Ali Khan, Sehrish Wali and Najeeb Ahmad Amir
Figure 2: This figure shows the rising trend in the Arabian Sea along the coast of Karachi [3]

The annual melt water of 135 million m3 for Hinarche Glacier in Bagrot Valley shows the
magnitude of glacier runoff in such environments [10]The earth’s climate model projections suggest
that global surface air temperature will considerably increase in future due to radiative effects of
atmospheric gases [11]. This may lead to extensive glacier melting and rise in sea level in response.

2. Material and Methods

The duration of seismic data, used in this study, is 1961 to 2008. The seismic data is provided by
Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). The study has been made by calculating and comparing
the decadal and eight year averages of earthquake frequency. To study the magnitude wise variations,
Mb parameter (body wave magnitude) has been selected. The decadal variations for various magnitude
ranges of 3-3.9, 4-4.9 and 5-5.9 have been studied. No earthquakes for the magnitudes of <3 and 5.9<
have been reported by PMD in the shelf area of Pakistan during period 1961 to 2008. Depth wise study
has been made by dividing it into two depth ranges of 0-40km and 41-80km. The earthquake frequency
for the depth >80km has been neglected as it does not show any significant increase with the passage
of time.

Table 1: This table shows the average earthquake frequency for various depth ranges.

Depth 0-40 km (Depth) 41-80 km (Depth)

Total No. of Cumulative
No. of Avg. Avg. No. of
Earthquakes Avg. Freq.
Duration Earthquakes Frequency Frequency Earthquakes
1961-70 7 0.7 1 0.1 8 0.8
1971-80 11 1.1 1 0.1 12 1.2
1981-90 12 1.2 0 0 12 1.2
1991-00 17 1.7 3 0.3 20 2
2001-08 24 3 1 0.1 25 3.13
Total 71 1.48 6 0.13 77 1.60
Effects of Rising Eustatic Sea Level on Earthquake
Frequency along Shelf Areas of Pakistan 79

Table 2: This table shows the average earthquake frequency for various magnitudes

Magnitude 3-3.9 (Magnitude) 4-4.9 (Magnitude) 5-5.9 (Magnitude)

Total No. of Cumulative
No. of Avg. No. of Avg. No. of Avg.
Earthquakes Avg. Freq.
Duration Earthquakes Frequency Earthquakes Frequency Earthquakes Frequency
1961-70 0 0 5 0.5 3 0.3 8 0.8
1971-80 0 0 5 0.5 1 0.1 6 0.6
1981-90 1 0.1 9 0.9 1 0.1 11 1.1
1991-00 2 0.2 9 0.9 2 0.2 13 1.3
2001-08 7 0.88 7 0.88 0 0 14 1.76
Total 10 0.20 35 0.72 7 0.14 52 1.08

Figure 3: Shows cumulative average earthquake Figure 4: Shows the average earthquake frequency
frequency along shelf area of Pakistan for the depth 0-40km along shelf area of
Pakistan

3.5 3.5

Av erage Eathquake Frequency

Cumula tive Av . Earthquake

3 3
2.5 2.5
Frequency

2 2

1.5 1.5

1 1

0.5 0.5

0 0
1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-08 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-08
Duration Duration

Figure 5: Shows the average earthquake frequency Figure 6: Shows the average earthquake frequency
for the depth 41-80km along shelf area of for the magnitude 3-3.9 along shelf area of
Pakistan Pakistan
Av erage Earthqua ke Frequency

0.35 1
Av erage Eathquake Frequency

0.9
0.3
0.8
0.25 0.7
0.6
0.2 0.5
0.4
0.15
0.3
0.1 0.2
0.1
0.05 0
0 196 1- 1 971- 198 1- 1991 - 20 01-
19 61-70 197 1-80 19 81-90 199 1-00 2 001-0 8 70 80 90 00 08
Duratio n Durati on
80 Muhammad Usman, Kashif Adeel, Masood Ali Khan, Sehrish Wali and Najeeb Ahmad Amir
Figure 7: Shows the average earthquake frequency Figure 8: Shows the average earthquake frequency
for the magnitude 4-4.9 along shelf area of or the magnitude 3-3.9 for northern
Pakistan Pakistan [4]

1 60
Av erage Earthqua ke Frequency

Av erage Earthqua ke Frequency

0.9
0.8 50
0.7 40
0.6
0.5 30
0.4
0.3 20
0.2 10
0.1
0 0
1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-08 196 1-70 1 971-8 0 198 1-90 1 991-0 0 20 01-08
Duration Duration

3. Results and Discussion

Changes in eustatic sea level since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have created a differential load
across coastlines globally. The resulting plate bending in response to this load alters the state of stress
within the lithosphere [9]. These stress perturbations may perceptibly alter the seismic cycle of major
plate boundary faults, but such effects are more likely to be observed on nearby secondary faults with a
lower tectonic stress accumulation rate. In the specific instance of rapid sea level rise at the Black Sea,
the seismic cycle of the nearby North Anatolian fault was likely significantly advanced [9]. The
increase in sea level along Karachi coast has been observed from 1860 (Fig. 2) and presently it is rising
at 1-2mm/year [8].This rising sea level is adding stresses on the shelf area of Pakistan. The gradually
increasing pressure is probably resulting in enhanced seismic activity along various fault zones in the
Arabian Sea. The Owen fault zone is a transform fault in the Arabian Sea that is associated with active
tectonic boundary of Indian and Arabian plates [12]. The large earthquakes near Owen Fault zone are
infrequent but have potential for generating earthquakes [12]. The shelf area of Pakistan shows
increasing trend in earthquake frequency (Fig. 3) from 1961-2008. This enhancing earthquake
frequency can be correlated to rise in sea level by the addition of fresh water and debris in response to
the glaciers melting as a result of global warming. However from 2001 to 2008 the data from PMD has
intrusions of various seismic sources like International Seismic Center (ISC), National Earthquake
Information Center (NEIC) and New Delhi Indian Meteorological Department (NDI). So, the increase
in earthquake frequency from 2001-08, may be contributed not only by eustatic sea level rise but can
also be the result of extensive data sharing between these sources.
Table 1 and Fig. 4, 5 show the average earthquake frequency for various depth ranges. It is
clear that the earthquake frequency having foci < 40 km are increasing with the passage of time.
Further study indicates that the earthquakes having magnitude 3-3.9 show increasing trend with the
passage of time (Table 2 and Fig. 6). Surprisingly, this magnitude correlates with the increasing
earthquake frequency magnitude in the northern Pakistan (Fig.6 and 8). As the temperature of northern
Pakistan has increased by 0.52 0C [2] so, it is thought that the increasing temperature is causing the
glaciers of northern Pakistan to melt and they are releasing pressure on the earth below which possibly
rebounds causing earthquakes [3]. The load which is removed from northern Pakistan is ultimately
deposited in the Arabian Sea. The level of Arabian Sea is rising in response to glacier melt resulting
not only from northern Pakistan but also from other parts of the world. This sea level rise is increasing
stress on the lithosphere which is responding in the form of earthquakes.
 Effects of Rising Eustatic Sea Level on Earthquake
Frequency along Shelf Areas of Pakistan 81

The earthquakes for the magnitude 4-4.9 show sudden rise in their frequency from 1971 to
1980 period. However, after 1980 their frequency is approximately consistent (Fig. 7). The earthquakes
for the depth 41-80km do not show any increase in their frequency (Fig. 5).

4. Conclusions
Pakistan’s continental shelf shows an increasing trend in earthquake frequency which can be correlated
to rising sea levels in same duration caused by extensive glacier melting as a result of global warming.
The increase in earthquake frequency probably lies in the magnitude 3-3.9 and in depth range from 0 to
40 km.

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