International Journal of Information Technologies and Systems Approach, 5(1), 1-18, January-June 2012 1

The Information System for

Bridge Networks Condition
Monitoring and Prediction
Khalid Aboura, University of Technology Sydney, Australia
Bijan Samali, University of Technology Sydney, Australia

ABSTRACT
This paper introduces an information system for estimating lifetime characteristics of elements of bridges
and predicting the future conditions of networks of bridges. The Information System for Bridge Networks
Condition Monitoring and Prediction was developed for the Roads and Traffic Authority of the state of New
South Wales, Australia. The conceptual departure from the standard bridge management systems is the use
of a novel stochastic process built out of the gamma process. The statistical model was designed for the
estimation of infrastructure lifetime, based on the analysis of more than 15 years of bridge inspection data.
The predictive curve provides a coherent mathematical model for conducting target level constrained and
funding based maintenance optimization.

Keywords: Bridge Reliability, Gamma Process, Information Systems, Statistical Estimation, Structural
Deterioration, Support System

INTRODUCTION contracting to two consulting companies and

In the past two decades, a large effort went into
the development of maintenance optimization
systems for bridge management purposes. With
road networks mostly completed and bridges
aging, a systematic approach was needed in
keeping the infrastructure maintained. Several
systems have been developed, the most notable
one being Pontis, a bridge management system
(BMS) developed in the United States at the
request of the U.S. Federal Highway Admin-
istration (FHWA). Pontis was developed via
DOI: 10.4018/jitsa.2012010101
in collaboration with six U.S. states. After a
trial implementation in California and testing
in several states, the system was adopted by the
Association of American State Highway and
Transportation officials (AASHTO) (Golabi &
Sheppard, 1997). In 1991, the U.S. Congress
mandated that state Departments of Transpor-
tation develop and implement comprehensive
bridge management systems. Since the national
bridge inventory was to be based on Pontis,
many states elected to adopt it as their BMS.
Pontis was designed along the lines of Ka-
mal Golabi’s proposal, and Golabi was asked to
head the team that developed Pontis. In March

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2 International Journal of Information Technologies and Systems Approach, 5(1), 1-18, January-June 2012
1988, at the suggestion of Bill Hyman of the Ur-
ban Institute, Kamal Golabi and Dan O’Connor,
an official with the U.S. Federal Highway
Administration, started a series of meetings to
discuss the modeling and the optimization ap-
proach to bridge management that Golabi had
been advocating for a number of years (Golabi
& Sheppard, 1997). Golabi had developed a
pavement management system for the State of
Arizona to produce optimal maintenance poli-
cies for the 7,400-mile network of highways
(Golabi, Kulkarni, & Way, 1982). At the heart
of the system is a Markov decision model. In
a similar approach, a Markov chain was made
to drive the Pontis bridge management system
(Golabi & Shepard, 1997; Thompson, Small,
Johnson, & Marshall, 1998). In the Markov
model of Pontis, the deterioration takes discrete
states observed visually and the transitions
from one state to the other are modeled with a
Markov chain. The transition probabilities are
determined from expert judgment and empirical
observations. The Markov model formulation
is appealing because it provides a framework
that accounts for the uncertainty and the opti-
mal policies can be obtained by solving simple
programming problems (Thompson, Neumann,
Miettinen, & Talvitie, 1987; van Winden &
Dekker, 1998; Golabi & Pereira, 2003). How-
ever, a number of criticisms have been made
against the usefulness of the model (Madanat,
Mishalani, & Ibrahim, 1995; Frangopol, Kong,
& Gharaibeh, 2001). Among the issues raised,
the Markov chain has a restrictive stationarity
assumption by which the time effect is not
introduced effectively.
The Roads and Traffic Authority (RTA) of
the Australian state of New South Wales manag-
es more than 5000 bridges in its network. These
bridges were built over the last 125 years using
various materials and technology and for various
loading standards. The structures are exposed to
different environments and subject to different
volumes of vehicle traffic. In order to manage
these bridges and ensure their safety, the RTA
has established a systematic condition rating
procedure. Since 1992, the RTA has condition
rated its bridge stock and recorded the data in
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its corporate Bridge Information System (BIS).
A collaborative effort between the RTA and the
University of Technology Sydney (UTS) was
initiated to make full use of the condition rating
information and capture the statistical behavior
of the deterioration of the bridge elements in a
mathematical model for assessment and predic-
tion. In this article, we describe the approach,
different from that of Pontis. After a review of
all conceptual approaches and the analysis of
data, we adopt an approach based on the use of a
stochastic process we develop out of the gamma
process for modeling deterioration. In recent
years, researchers applied a stochastic process
to the deterioration of civil infrastructure (van
Noortwijk, 2009). A stochastic process such as
the gamma process is an infinite collection of
probability distributions, correlated in a manner
suitable for modeling wear and degradation over
time. The advantage of the gamma process is
recognized and applied in many structural stud-
ies by van Noortwijk and co-authors (Pandey &
van Noortwijk, 2004; van Noortwijk, Kallen, &
Pandey, 2005; Pandey, Yuan, & van Noortwijk,
2007). We recognise the applicability of the
stochastic process and use it in the problem.
A system is developed as a research platform
for the prediction of the condition of bridge
elements, bridges and network of bridges and
as a support system for the lifetime assessment
and monitoring of assets. In the following sec-
tions we introduce the theoretical foundation
of the predictive approach and the assessment
and monitoring methodology and describe the
associated software.
STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY
The Roads and Traffic Authority of the state of
New South Wales is faced with the dual aspects
of public safety and maintenance cost in the man-
agement of bridges and road structures within its
jurisdiction. The interest is on predicting bridge
element condition in a group of structures,
predicting the future condition of a network
of bridges and assessing the performance of a
selection of bridges. An RTA bridge consists of
International Journal of Information Technologies and Systems Approach, 5(1), 1-18, January-June 2012 3
8 to 12 major elements and up to 57 elements
including joints, railing and other components.
Since 1992, the RTA collected over 270,000
inspection records for 5058 bridges against 115
element types. The RTA bridge condition rating
system rates the quantity of each bridge element
in different condition states. It applies in much
the same way as the discrete condition rating
scale adopted by the U.S. Federal Highway
Administration and the Pontis software. There
are 5 condition states for steel elements, 4 for
concrete and timber elements and 3 states for
other ancillary elements. Since July 2007 this
system has been changed to 4 condition states
for all elements. Condition state 1 represents
the ‘as new’ condition, no-deterioration state,
while condition states 2…, n mark increasing
levels of deterioration. For example a concrete
deck slab (CDSL) could have 60% in condition
1, 20% in condition 2, 15% in condition 3 and
5% in condition 4, condition 4 being the worst
condition (Aboura, Samali, Crews, & Li, 2009).
An element on a bridge is divided in a number
of units. For example, a CDSL on some bridge
may have a total surface of 1358m2. The ele-
ment CDSL is said to have a quantity of 1358
units on that bridge. The quantities for each
element are measured either in square meters
(m2) if it is a surface, in meters (m) for some
elements such as railing and joints, or units (ea)
for timber elements. All quantities are recorded
as integers. It is a practical approximation that
facilitates the visual estimation of damage. A
unit of quantity of an element is either 1m2, 1m or
1 unit. Upon inspection, the units of an element
are judged to be in one of the n states, n=3, 4 or
5, depending on the element before July 2007
or n=4 since. Condition state 1 represents the
‘as new’ condition, no-deterioration state, while
condition states 2..., n mark increasing levels of
deterioration. The records go back to 1992. Each
record corresponds to an element of a particular
structure on a scheduled inspection. Among
the recorded entries are q, the total quantity of
the element, q1 the quantity in condition state
1, q2 the quantity in state 2, to qn the quantity
in condition state n. For example, the concrete
post-tensioned girder on some bridge, on some
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inspection, was found to have q1= 590 m2, q2= 2
m2, q3= 0 m2 and q4= 0 m2 for a total quantity q=
592 m2. In the course of the years the database
spans, an element was inspected a number of
times, roughly every two years. Each element
in each structure is classified as subject to one
of three degrees of environmental stress; light,
moderate and severe. Approximately two thirds
of the records show a moderate environmental
stress, with most of the remaining third being
light stress. An inspection record contains
another 4 entries identifying the element, the
bridge it is on, the inspector’s initials and the
date of the inspection.
The Condition Index as a
Univariate Measure
Deterioration is most likely to suit the measuring
model of a continuous variable. At any inspec-
tion time t, the data for a bridge element is the
condition data (q1 …, qn), as described above.
This condition data (q1…, qn) of an element is
converted to a univariate measure C(t), using
the notion of Condition Index. The percentage
of the undamaged quantity of the element is
q1/q 100%. C(t)=100 q1/q is a possible condi-
tion index formulation. This index provides a
first level of information on the condition of
the element. Usually, the severity of the defects
is introduced in an additive manner into the
equation. Since q2..., qn represent the quanti-
ties in various damaged states, using carefully
chosen parameters α2, …, αn, C(t)=100/(1-(α2q2
+ ... + αnqn)/qαn) is a possible condition index
formulation. Another possible formulation may
consider introducing a severity factor in the
form of an additive component S=[1/(n-1)]q3/
qd+...+[(n-2)/(n-1)]qn/qd, where the quantity of
deteriorated element is qd=q2+…+qn. The index
is then C(t)= 100/(1-(qd+λS)/q) with parameter
λ. Sensitivity analysis showed that these mea-
sures display similar trends in the element con-
dition in most cases and differ mostly in scale.
With a bit of mathematical manipulation, they
can be related to the California bridge health
index (Shepard & Johnson, 1999). Often, several
types of measures were tried out until one was
4 International Journal of Information Technologies and Systems Approach, 5(1), 1-18, January-June 2012
adopted, as in the case of the California bridge
health index, a ranking system that takes values
in [0,100]. The California Department of Trans-
portation was involved in the development and
implementation of Pontis. In our case, several
mathematical models were developed and the
California Bridge Health Index was chosen as
a model already tested and used. A condition
index has two functions; (1) its use in a condi-
tion analysis where the condition history of a
structure is estimated with the inspection data
of its elements, through the use of a weighted
sum of the conditions of the elements (Shepard
& Johnson, 1999), and (2) its use in the study
of deterioration by modeling the univariate
measure as a stochastic process in time.
Extracting the Deterioration
Information
One of the major problems in modeling bridge
lifetime is the lack of data at high deterioration
levels. This difficulty prohibits the piecing
together of the history of deterioration. In this
study, we requested that the RTA make avail-
able to us all the data in their database. The
hope was that we will be able to find enough
relevant information to construct a model. We
set out to analyze the data of 15 years and ex-
tract the deterioration information. In turning
the vector of quantities q1…, qn into a single
value C(t) where t is time, the dimensionality
of the problem is reduced and one can apply
mathematically tractable models. The element
condition is a value between 0 and 100%, 100%
being the ‘as new’ condition (no deterioration)
state. An element can be in one of 11 states at
an inspection time. If we denote C its current
condition and Cp its condition at the previous
inspection, then there are 11 possible states and
they are; (S1) the element condition is C=100
and Cp=100 at the previous inspection, (S2)
0<C<100 and Cp=100, (S3) C=0 and Cp=100, (S4)
0<C=Cp<100, (S5) 0<Cp<C<100, (S6) C=100
and 0<Cp<100, (S7) 0<C<Cp<100, (S8) C=0 and
0<Cp<100, (S9) C=Cp=0, (S10) 0=Cp<C<100, and
(S11) Cp=0 and C=100. The 11 states are mutu-
ally exclusive and exhaustive events, defined
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using two consecutive element conditions.
In the study of a stochastic process, we look
for points of renewal in which the process is
restarted, hence using the information from the
previous inspection. For descriptive purposes,
transition frequencies for these 11 states were
estimated from the data. These statistics provide
information as to how the element is coping in a
set of structures. We define the deterioration as
the variable Z=100-C. Z1, Z2, Z3, Z7 and Z8 are
the amounts of deterioration corresponding to
states S1, S2, S3, S7 and S8. These variables are
of relevance when studying the deterioration
process, along with their inter-inspection times.
The time at which a deterioration increase dZ in
a time interval dt occurs is also important. The
pairs (dt,dZ) for dZ>0 and the time at which
dt starts is sufficient information to estimate
the parameters of a stochastic process such as
the gamma process. The questions at this point
are; (1) is the gamma process a good candidate
and (2) is there enough relevant deterioration
information to estimate properly the parameters
of a chosen model.
Gamma Process as a
Deterioration Model
In recent years, researchers applied a stochastic
process to the deterioration of civil infrastructure
(van Noortwijk, 2009). A stochastic process
such as the gamma process is an infinite col-
lection of probability distributions, correlated
in a manner suitable for modeling wear and
degradation over time. We recognised the theo-
retical superiority of the stochastic process in
modeling bridge element deterioration. Using
the 15 years of data, we checked the different
assumptions of the gamma process. While
obviously some are hard to check, such as the
independence of incremental deterioration, the
data provided ample evidence of a good distribu-
tional fit (Aboura, Samali, Crews, & Li, 2009).
The study of fit was done with the analysis of
the distribution of the deterioration variables
Z2 and dZ7, the increase associated with Z7. To
conduct the analysis, we needed data that occur
at the same time. In practice, inspections are
International Journal of Information Technologies and Systems Approach, 5(1), 1-18, January-June 2012 5
not always strictly periodic and the inspection
times are often not the same as an inspector will
take turn inspecting several structures. Having
the entire database helped. Looking at all the
inter-inspection times, we were able to group
them together by adjusting times, making it
possible to study the probabilistic behavior of
deterioration as a random variable at different
times. The adjustment was made through round-
ing off the inspection times. Judgment was used
in eliminating data for inspection time intervals
that exceed 4 years. Beyond 4 years, the data
start thinning. The distributions of Z2 at differ-
ent points in time characterize the stochastic
process. In the case of most of our elements,
the probability distribution showed a good fit
to the gamma distribution. This agrees with the
properties of the gamma deterioration process,
where the distributions of incremental deterio-
rations are gamma distributed (van Noortwijk,
2009). This was observed for the concrete and
steel elements, as well as railing and joints and
some timber elements. The lognormal was also
found to be a good fit. In the gamma process,
not only is the distribution a gamma distribu-
tion when measured from the start of time, but
any incremental distribution is also a gamma
distribution. That is, if taking an interval in
time and measuring the difference (increase)
in the quantity of interest, the distribution of
such an increase is also a gamma distribution.
In addition, the increases in non-overlapping
time intervals are independents. This makes
for a number of assumptions to be checked. We
observed that whenever dZ7 data are abundant
enough, the stochastic process assumptions
can be accepted. For the purpose of building
a statistical model, the observations promote
the use of the gamma process. To illustrate
the gamma process, we apply it to a concrete
element and observe a steep deterioration rate
(Figure 1). Two data points are used; (15.81
years, 99.69%) and (17.75 years, 95.46%) with
the renewal at year 13.92 years since the start
of the database.
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The Gamma Process
The gamma process can be found in its modern
application to structures in the late 90s by van
Noortwijk (1998) and van Noortwijk and Klat-
ter (1999). Empirical studies showed that the
expected deterioration in some cases followed
the power lawat b , where t is the time. This
function of time is incorporated into the gamma
process and used to model structural deteriora-
tion. The advantage of the gamma process is
recognized and applied in many structural stud-
ies. van Noortwijk (2009) provides a compre-
hensive overview of the use of the gamma
process in the maintenance of structures. In the
context of structural deterioration, the gamma
process is defined as follows: Let v(t) be a
non-decreasing, right continuous, real-valued
function for t > 0 , with v( 0) = 0 . The
gamma process with shape function v(t) > 0
and scale parameter u > 0 is a continuous-time
stochastic process Z(t) , t > 0 with the follow-
ing properties;
• Z( 0) = 0 with probability 1,
• Z( t ) - Z(t) ~ G(v( t ) - v(t),u) and
• Z(t) has independent increments,
where G(z | v,u) = u v z v −1e −uz / Γ(v) is the
gamma probability density function defined
for z > 0 . The process can be parameterized.
Letting v(t) = µ2 t q / σ 2 and u = µ / σ 2 ,the
mean and variance of the deterioration Z(t)
are
E(Z(t)) = mt q
and
V(Z(t)) = s 2 t q
Given a set of observations of the deterio-
n n
ration process Z(t) , {z i }i=1 for times {ti }i=1 ,
the maximization of the likelihood function
provides estimates of the parameters (q, µ, σ ).
This involves the search, q fixed, for the zero
of a function, where ŝ is solution of
6 International Journal of Information Technologies and Systems Approach, 5(1), 1-18, January-June 2012

Figure 1. Gamma process as a deterioration model

n 
 µˆ2 
 zn curve, the higher the observed deterioration,

ψ( 2 wi ) − log δi 
∑w i
 σ
 = tn log( q 2 )

q
the better the theoretical process mean is es-
i =1 
 
 t nσ
timated. The importance of such estimation is
apparent in the execution of the final exercise,
the maintenance optimization. In estimating
di = z i - z i -1, wi = tiq - tiq-1, i = 1,...,n , at what time the condition of an element will
z 0 = 0 with t0 = 0 and mˆ = z n / tnq . y is the reach a target level, and the ensuing economic
consequences of corresponding maintenance
digamma function (Abramowitz & Stegun,
times, the accuracy is of significant importance.
1972).
It is illustrated in Figure 2, where two different
We experimented with the process using
condition paths lead to two very different times
simulation and estimating the parameters with
to reach the 20% deterioration target. There is
the maximum likelihood approach. With few
approximately a 2 years difference between
data points, the model can capture the dete-
the two maintenance times, which can be of
rioration process efficiently. The lower some
significant difference in maintenance cost.
data points are along the curve, the better the
estimation. The high deterioration points for Aggregating Data
an element of a bridge are not many and the
few that are observed do not provide good The exercise of estimating the process mean
estimates for the Markov chain transitions to curve is at the heart of the maintenance opti-
high deterioration states. However, few of these mization problem. While the decision model
data points provide a good estimation when requires the declaration of costs, a non trivial
used in a gamma process model. For an element part, estimating properly the condition curve is
whose deterioration behaves in time according the essential part of the problem. The data for
to a gamma process, any information on the each element on an individual bridge aren’t
condition path leads to a better estimation. The enough to estimate the parameters (q , µ, σ )
deeper that information is along the condition n
properly. Often, the path {z i }i=1 for times

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International Journal of Information Technologies and Systems Approach, 5(1), 1-18, January-June 2012 7

Figure 2. Time to reach target level

{ti }i=1 does not extend beyond n=1 or 2, before The Deterioration Information
n

the element is brought back to the full condition
state. One way around this problem is to ag-
gregate the data by dividing the bridges into
similarity classes. Bridges are grouped through
the identification of major elements. Then
within the classes of similar bridges, a second
stratification occurs according to influencing
factors; traffic load, age, region and environ-
mental stress. The approach of aggregating data
is the one taken in most models. Regardless of
the statistical model, be it the Markov chain or
a stochastic process such as the gamma process,
one is often forced to pull information about
an element type from different bridges and
estimate to predict the deterioration. But in the
gamma process, the approach provides an ef-
ficient estimation procedure. While few data
points for high deterioration provide at best
weak estimates for the transition probabilities
to the corresponding states in the Markov
model, in the gamma process, they help pin
down the deterioration curve more accurately.
The second question we asked was whether
there will be enough deterioration information
to sustain the use of some statistical model. In
the RTA BIS, we found a wealth of reliable
information regarding the deterioration of ele-
ments. While there wasn’t much information
about recently introduced bridge elements,
those found in rare quantities, or those found on
new structures, many elements have condition
histories that offer valuable information about
their deterioration. The process for extracting
information regarding the deterioration process
of an element is the following:
• For the element on each structure, we
compute the condition index over time
• Using this condition path, we look for
renewal points. These are points in time
where the condition of the element is back
to 100%, coming up from a deteriorated
condition, due to repair or replacement.
• We follow the condition path over time,
until it is either truncated (right censored)

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8 International Journal of Information Technologies and Systems Approach, 5(1), 1-18, January-June 2012

due to reaching the last inspection, or until information relevant to deterioration, fed into
it meets a repair or replacement. a statistical model for the estimation of the
deterioration process.
This extraction process ensures the collec-
tion of all information from the data relevant The Probability Model
to the estimation of the deterioration of the
At this point, a probability model is needed to
considered element. When we pulled data for
conduct a statistical analysis of the data. There
an element at a time, we were pleased to find
are two ways one can proceed. A rigorous ap-
a lot of these paths. In some cases, the same
proach would be to use a stochastic process to
structure would offer up to 3 paths were the
model the extracted paths. A realization of the
element renews. Often also, the right censoring
stochastic process would start at the 100%, full
occurs, still providing valuable information.
condition level and stay at that level for some
Figure 3 shows the example of a typical con-
time then start degrading, as seem to be done
dition path of an element on a structure. The
by the condition of the elements. The model
condition path has 9 points.
would take the paths as data and render an es-
Figure 4 shows the path we extract for the
timated path process. The gamma process does
element condition index.
not apply in this case or rather it does not seem
With the current span of the database and
to apply. The gamma process assumes positive
depending on the element, we can extract as
increment in deterioration in intervals of time
many as three paths from an element condition
even if the augmentation in deterioration is very
history on a bridge. The extraction process is
small. For estimation purposes, two following
repeated until all the deterioration paths for an
deterioration levels that are equal would create
element are extracted from its condition over
a problem in the computation of the likelihood
time on the different structures it exists on.
function. The data we use is an observed ap-
Upon a study of the element, one stratifies the
proximation due to visual inspection and most
data, as done for example in Figure 5 where
likely the deterioration of an element starts im-
only the paths taken from structures of one
mediately with its implantation on the bridge.
geographic region are shown on the left, and
This makes the gamma process a theoretical
then further reduced to only one bridge type in
candidate. However, that initial deterioration
that region.
might be very small and not easily observable, if
These paths are the important part of the
at all, hence the possible periods of time in full
data as long as a deterioration study is concerned.
condition. To handle this difficulty, we can apply
Figure 6 displays some of the paths showing
a stochastic process as a mixture of a distribu-
different shapes often encountered.
tion that accounts for the time in full condition
We call these curves deterioration paths
and a deterioration process such as the gamma
while in fact they are condition paths extracted
process. The rigorous approach would be to
for a deterioration study. As one can see, they
(1) construct the theoretical stochastic process,
can be right censored, of a concave shape,
(2) derive the estimators of the parameters of
convex shape or a mixture. These are curves
the probability model then (3) estimate using
taken at discrete points, with some degree of
the data. We leave this approach for possible
approximation in the condition assessment of
future research as there is no guarantee that one
the corresponding inspections weighted accord-
can derive mathematically tractable results.
ing to a mathematical model based on engineer-
The approach we adopt is based on reversing
ing knowledge. These curves do not reflect the
some steps and building a stochastic process
real path of the condition of an element, except
differently. We did observe the fit of the gamma
at the sampling points. The shapes give us only
process to the data after it leaves the full condi-
an empirical appreciation of the behavior of the
tion. We therefore keep that part in the model.
element. As sample data, the paths are ‘pure’

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International Journal of Information Technologies and Systems Approach, 5(1), 1-18, January-June 2012 9

Figure 3. Condition path of an element on a structure

We then apply a distribution for the time the
process stays in full condition. We use the data
to estimate the two parts of the model. We fi-
nally use the laws of probability to combine the
distribution in full condition with the gamma
process for the deterioration part, arriving at
a stochastic process that can be considered to
be a novel model. While from the theoretical
point of view the creation of this model is not a
major accomplishment, its creation within a real

Figure 4. Extracted process information

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10 International Journal of Information Technologies and Systems Approach, 5(1), 1-18, January-June 2012

Figure 5. Element deterioration paths

context makes it a valuable contribution. The Estimating the Gamma Process

model is derived for an element. It is extended
to a bridge and a network of bridges. In the estimation of the deterioration part using
a gamma process, we pull information for an
element from several structures. This part is

Figure 6. Deterioration path shapes

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International Journal of Information Technologies and Systems Approach, 5(1), 1-18, January-June 2012 11

crucial and must be done taking into account

that an independence assumption is made. We
assume that the same element has independent
lifetimes on structures of a same class. The fact
that the structures are in the same class provides
further the same distributional characteristics.
The independence assumption is not always an where zi,j is the cumulative amount of deterio-
easy one to make. For example, in the context of ration at the ith inspection time ti,j for the jth
the maintenance of a bridge, a reliability based element, di , j = z i , j - z i -1,j is the ith deterioration
approach was developed by which a structure
is modeled as a coherent system (Estes & Fran- increment for the jth element, wi , j = tiq, j - tiq-1,j
gopol, 1999). The assumption of independence , y is the digamma function (Abramowitz &
of the lifetimes of elements of bridges is a hard Stegun, 1972), and
one to make in the application of the theory of
coherent systems to bridge lifetime modeling. m nj

The reliability method provides a maintenance ∑ ∑δ

j =1 i =1
i,j

solution but it was shown that the optimum µˆ = nj

.
m
maintenance cost is strongly dependent on the
system model used to represent the structure.
∑ ∑w
j =1 i =1
i,j

Independence assumptions must be made

with care. In our problem, our independence
assumption is weaker than that for elements
on a bridge. We pull data for the same type of
element from several bridges and we choose
those bridges with a similar environment and
load to the element. It remains an assumption,
as all bridges are unique. But for the purpose of
solving a maintenance problem, we believe it is
acceptable in the context of a proper selection
of bridges. The same approximating technique
is made in other solutions.
The estimation solution for the gamma
process in this context exists through the
Maximum Likelihood Estimation method
(Nicolai, Dekker, & van Noortwijk, 2007).
Considering m independent elements, j = 1…
Although ŝ is not provided in a closed
form solution, it is relatively easy to solve the
one dimensional equation if a good starting
value is fed into the search algorithm.
The Method of Moments provides good
estimates of m and s for q fixed. They were
derived in the case of a single path by Cinlar,
Bazant, and Osman (1977). van Noortwijk and
Pandey (2004) provide the derivation. We ex-
tend the derivation to the case of several ele-
ments and several deterioration paths. The
Method of Moments estimates for the general
case are:
nj
m

m, for which nj inspections are performed that ∑ ∑δ

j =1 i =1
i,j

result in nj independent deterioration incre- µˆ = nj

and
m
ments, the maximization of the likelihood ∑ ∑w i,j
function provides estimates of the parameters j =1 i =1

(q, µ, σ ). This involves the search for q fixed, m nj

for the zero of a function, where ŝ is solution ∑ ∑ (δ i,j − δ wi , j )2

of σˆ2 =
j =1 i =1
where
m nj

∑ ∑ (w
j =1 i =1
i,j − w )

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12 International Journal of Information Technologies and Systems Approach, 5(1), 1-18, January-June 2012
δ = µˆ and
nj
m
∑ ∑w
j =1 i =1
i,j
2
w = nj
. Γ(µ2t q / σ 2 , z µ / σ 2 )
m
∑ ∑w
j =1 i =1
i,j
These estimates are easy to compute for
any set of deterioration paths. The computations
of the MLE for the parameters ( µ, σ,q ) require
the application of an algorithm that uses search
methods. The algorithm proceeds by fixing
q ,determining ( µˆ(q ), σˆ(q ) ), computing the
likelihood function value for (q, µˆ(q ), σˆ(q ) ).
The q value that provides the maximum likeli-
hood value is the MLE estimate q̂ with corre-
sponding MLE estimates µˆ(ˆ), q .
q σˆ(ˆ)
Similarly to the case of the Markov chain
model, once the estimation is conducted satis-
factorily, the prediction becomes straightfor-
ward. In the case of the Markov model, the
prediction is done through the t-step transition
matrix P(t) = Pt. The state vector for any time
t, Qt, can be obtained by the multiplication of
initial state vector Q0 and the transition prob-
ability matrix P raised to the power t =
1, 2, …,.Qt = Q0P t . P is the matrix whose
entries are to be estimated. In the case of the
gamma process, once q , m and s are esti-
mated properly, the distribution of the deterio-
ration at time t, X(t) is a gamma distribution
with mean and variance functions of the esti-
mated parameters (van Noortwijk, 2009).
The time to target is an important predic-
tive component and an input to maintenance
optimization models. Determining the time to
reach any given condition is an essential part
of the predictive methodology for element
deterioration. Once the element starts deterio-
rating, its condition decreases in accordance to
a gamma process. An element is said to have
reached target or failed when its deterioration,
denoted X(t) here, at time t, goes above 100
minus the condition target level. For example,
if the condition target level is 80%, then failure
occurs when the deterioration passes the z=20%
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mark. Due to the gamma-distributed nature of
the stochastic process considered, the lifetime
distribution can then be written as:
F (t, z ) = P (X (t ) ≥ z ) =
Γ(µ2t q / σ 2 )
∞
Γ(a, x ) = ∫ z a −1e −z dz is the incomplete
z =x
Gamma function. The probability density func-
tion of the time to target is derived by Park and
Padget (2005).
Predicted Condition
Following the analysis of the RTA bridge inspec-
tion data, and after extracting all relevant condi-
tion information, taking into account renewals in
the maintenance process, it is observed that all
elements follow a time period where they stay
in full condition then start deteriorating. Statisti-
cal investigations in both parts of the process,
the full condition period and the deterioration
period, resulted in two statistical models. One
is a probability distribution for the time in full
condition and the other is the gamma process.
The amalgamation of the two parts creates a
new stochastic process.
Let C(t) be the condition of an element at
time t after a renewal, 0≤ C(t) ≤ 100, C(0)=100
(%). Let Td be the time to the start of deteriora-
tion, from a renewal. The time to the start of
deterioration is not an observable. There is no
way around this difficulty unless one applies
constant monitoring on all parts of a bridge. Td
is taken to be the last inspection time before a
deterioration is observed. Td is an observable
whose data can be used in the inferential pro-
cedure. A renewal is a point in time at which
the element is brought back from a deterio-
rated state to a full condition. Time t is then
reset to zero. Td has a probability density func-
tion f(td), where 0 < td <∞, estimated from the
data. The deterioration part of the element, Z(t)
= 100 − C(t), is modeled with a gamma process.
The noticeable part in the application of this
International Journal of Information Technologies and Systems Approach, 5(1), 1-18, January-June 2012 13

stochastic process in the case of our study is
that the process starts at time Td. In this case,
we consider Z(t−Td) as a deterioration amount
for t ≥ Td. The condition of the element is C(t|
Td, Z(∙)) = 100 if 0≤ t ≤ Td and C(t| Td, Z(∙)) =
100 − Z(t−Td) if t ≥ Td. Using the laws of prob-
Similar to the element condition curve, a
variance is derived. Considering N, the network
of the n bridges, the prediction for the overall
network is:
mi

a b i l i t y, w e d e r i v e t h e m e a n CˆN (t ) = ∑ riCˆBi (t )
Cˆ(t ) = E (C (t | Td , Z (⋅))) and the variance
j =1

V (C (t )) = Var (C (t | Td , Z (⋅))) of this new

stochastic process. We shown that where ri ranks the importance of ith bridge in
the network. The corresponding variance is also
t derived.
Cˆ(t ) = 100 − ∫ m(t − td )q f (td )dtd , and
0
t ASSESSMENT AND
V (C (t )) = ∫ {σ (t − t )
2
d
q
+ [µ(t − td )q ]2 }f (td )dtd MONITORING
0
t
−[ ∫ µ(t − td )q f (td )dtd ]2 The California Bridge Health Index was chosen
0 as a model for the element condition index. The
element condition index (ECI) has the follow-
ing formulation:
From these results, we derive the predicted
condition for a bridge and a network of bridges
along with the respective variances. Let N be a Element Condition Index =
network of n bridges, B1, …, Bn. ±1q1 + ±2 q 2 + ±3 q 3 + ±4q 4 + ±5 q 5
Let the predicted condition curve for each q1 + q2 + q3 + q 4 + q5
bridge be CˆBi (t ) , i = 1, …, n. Each bridge Bi
has mi elements, with corresponding weights where q1, q2, q3, q4 and q5 are element quantities
li , j . These weights have been assessed accord- in condition states 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 respectively
ing to the procedure described in the next sec- and α1, α2, α3, α4, α5 are factors accounting
tion. These weights are independent of the for significance of the condition states. Two
bridge and could be refined to be specific not separate bridge condition indices (BCI) were
only to the element type but also to the bridge established; (1) BCIR - a BCI for strength or
or a region. However, at the moment, the weights risk of structural failure and (2) BCID - a BCI
apply only to the element type. In this case, for durability. Each index was derived based on
since the elements on a particular bridge are the significance of the elements in a bridge to
relabeled thought an ordering from 1 to mi, then the performance in a specific category:
the corresponding weights are relabeled li,1 ,
…, l , for i = 1, …, n. Letting Cˆ (t ) be the BCIR or BCID =
i ,mi i,j

predicted condition curve for the j element, th a1(ECI 1 ) + a2 (ECI 2 ) + ...... + an(ECI n )
the bridge predicted condition is obtained ECI 1 + ECI 2 + .......+ ECI n
through the expected value of the weighted
combination and is: where a1, a2,…, an are factors assigned to indi-
vidual elements to account for their importance
mi
. and influence in defining the specific functional
CˆBi (t ) = ∑ li , jCˆi , j (t ) aspect of the condition of the bridge. The values
j =1
for factors a1, a2, …, an were chosen by practic-
ing bridge engineers with a confidence level of

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14 International Journal of Information Technologies and Systems Approach, 5(1), 1-18, January-June 2012
Figure 7. The condition indicators
95% for BCIR and 65% for BCID. The Network
Condition Index (NCI) is derived in a similar
weighted scheme (Figure 7).
The condition of a selected network of
bridges is estimated through the analysis of the
condition of the bridges in the network. The
condition of each bridge/structure in the network
is estimated over time using a risk or mainte-
nance model and included in the network
condition model. To compute the NCI, the BCIs
are computed. They are then divided per fiscal
year and a statistical model applied to them.
The mean of the model is the NCI. Although
the statistical model for the data in each year
is applied and provides information about any
particular year, the mean of the model is an
empirical statistic making the NCI an indicator
free of statistical modeling. This point is im-
portant. It makes the assessment and monitor-
ing process acceptable to all managers and
engineers. Statistical models are applied for the
distribution of condition in any particular fiscal
year. They allow the user to communicate to
an audience not only a point estimate but also
an estimation of the spread of the condition of
bridges in the network around the NCI. To
compute the Element Network Condition Index
(ENCI), the ECIs of the element on the bridg-
es of a selected network are computed. The
ECIs are then separated per fiscal year and a
statistical model applied to them, in a similar
manner to the NCI. The resulting mean of the
model is the ENCI. Although the statistical
model for the data in each year is applied and
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provides information about any particular year,
the mean of the model is an empirical statistic
making the ENCI an indicator free of statistical
modeling. This part of the study, coupled with
statistical modeling for the graphical display
of the annual condition of an element in a se-
lected network of bridges and the condition of
any selected network of structures, provides
the basis for the assessment and monitoring of
bridge networks conditions.
THE SUPPORT SYSTEM
The support system is a main program connected
to 6 programs with the following functions:
• Read, format and store the inspection data
• Conduct a Bridge Condition Analysis
• Conduct a Network Condition Analysis
• Conduct an Element Condition Analysis
• Study an Element Condition under different
data stratification
• Make a Network Condition Prediction
◦◦ Read, convert and store the in-
spection data: The program checks,
formats and stores data. The RTA BIS
is used to extract the required informa-
tion in a predetermined format. The
bridge inspection records are fed into
the software which checks the data
for a number of conforming formats,
cleans any unfit record, converts some
entries, divides the data into element
and bridge related information, stores
International Journal of Information Technologies and Systems Approach, 5(1), 1-18, January-June 2012 15
all needed information and allows the
program to continue. This operation
does not need to be repeated at each
use of the program, but only when
the bridge information system, or
database, is downloaded for update.
In between downloads, the programs
are used upon an almost instantaneous
reading of the stored information.
◦◦ Bridge Condition Analysis: This
program runs the analysis of a single
bridge. The condition of each element
(ECI) on the structure is estimated
over time and included in the bridge
condition estimation (BCI).
◦◦ Network Condition Analysis: This
program runs an analysis of a network
of bridges. Any group of bridges can
be selected, either individually or ac-
cording to some criteria. Stratification
of data can be implemented. The condi-
tion of each structure in the network
of bridges is estimated over time and
included in the network condition
estimation (NCI).
◦◦ Element Condition Analysis: This
program runs the analysis of an ele-
ment on a network of bridges. Any
group of bridges that has the element
can be selected, either individually
or according to some criteria. Strati-
fication of data can be implemented.
The condition of the element on each
structure in the network is estimated
over time and included in the overall
condition estimation (ENCI).
◦◦ Study an Element Condition under
different data stratification: This
program provides the the predictive
model for an element on a network
of bridges. Any group of bridges that
has the element can be selected, either
individually or according to some
criteria. Similarly to the ‘Element
Condition Analysis’, the possibility of
several levels of stratification of the
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data is offered to the user through the
selection of a network of structures:
▪▪ Physical / Engineering: Bridge
Type or Road
▪▪ Affecting factors: Region, Road
Type, Age, Environment
◦◦ Network Condition Prediction: This
program provides the predicted con-
dition for a network of bridges. Any
group of bridges can be selected, either
individually or according to some
criteria. The network can be selected
manually or using any of the criteria
used for data stratification. Several
types of graphical plots are offered,
including that of the predicted curves
of all bridges surrounding the network
predicted curve.
This information system is enveloped in a
Graphical User Interface (GUI) of which one
screen is shown in Figure 8. Figure 8 shows the
plot of a network condition prediction curve. It
shows a condition prediction model as it typical-
ly appears in all cases. It has a concave starting
curvature which flexes into a convex tail. This
characterizing shape is not particularly revealing
or restraining as it can capture all situations. It
is simply interesting to note this characteristic
form of the new stochastic process. The shape
is similar to that of the reliability function in the
case of a univariate lifetime distribution. Figure
8 shows an example for a network whose data
spans a period of 16 years. The Maintenance
Network Condition Index (NCI) distribution
is shown in the boxplot. Figure 8 also shows
the Network Condition Index for the case of
an element. The GUI has visualization tools,
graphic routines, printing of lists and figures,
data storing capabilities, results saving and
display abilities. The GUI is menu driven, with
drop down menus, menu icons, popup menus
and push buttons. The software is event driven,
real time execution and self contained. Although
simple in its architecture and design, it does
handle large amounts of data and computations
16 International Journal of Information Technologies and Systems Approach, 5(1), 1-18, January-June 2012
Figure 8. Graphical user interface
in real-time. All relevant information is saved
and is accessible with little effort.
CONCLUSION
Pontis methodology has taken hold in the United
States and subsequently elsewhere. However,
not only academics have criticized the predic-
tive theory of Pontis but so have some states
and bridge engineers. Pontis offers an elegant
solution. But the stationarity assumption is
questioned and so is the estimation of the transi-
tion probabilities of the Markov chain through
subjective assessment. Bridges are often the
ownership of local and federal governments.
Government analysts do not accept a subjective
input when it comes to safety and funding. We
introduce a new method. The support system we
showcase implements a theory that rivals that
of existing bridge management systems. The
main driving force in the work is the fact that
a stochastic process is better suited for bridge
lifetime assessment. We followed the work by
van Noortwijk and others (van Nortwijk, 2009)
in modeling deterioration in civil infrastructure
and found support for their approach in our
data. We extend some results and develop a new
stochastic process for modeling deterioration
based on inspection data.
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18 International Journal of Information Technologies and Systems Approach, 5(1), 1-18, January-June 2012

Khalid Aboura is a researcher with a master of science and a doctorate of science in operations
research, with minor in statistics, from the George Washington University, Washington D.C, USA.
His research interests include topics in Operations Research, Stochastic Modeling, Structural
Deterioration, the development of Information and Management Systems, probabilistic solutions
in Image Analysis, Spatio-Temporal Estimation, the foundations of Statistics and the meaning
of Probability. Dr Khalid Aboura has consulting experience with industry and participated in
research projects supported by government and research labs. He served as the chairman of the
Statistical Computing Section of the Washington Statistical Society.

Bijan Samali is head of the school of civil and environmental engineering at the University of
Technology Sydney and has a personal chair in structural engineering. He is the director of
the Centre for Built Infrastructure Research at the University of Technology Sydney. His main
research interests lie in the general area of structural dynamics including wind and earthquake
engineering with special emphasis on structural control, dynamic measurement and analysis
of buildings and bridges, damage detection and structural health monitoring, and use of smart
materials in engineering applications. He has over 24 years of academic experience and en-
gagement with industry.

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