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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 366
Are we officially in a bear market now? Index fell 20 percent from the peak.
In barely two weeks’ time, the bullish tone of Bloomberg saw 18 out of 24 currencies
financial institutions and finance media dropping. The worst hit emerging countries
suddenly turned bearish. include China, Philippines, Brazil, Pakistan,
Dubai and Turkey. Jonathan Garner, Morgan
“Goldman Sachs: Weak stock market returns
Stanley’s Chief Asia and Emerging Markets
are ahead even with booming earnings” –
Strategist concluded, “This is a dangerous
CNBC
market. We now think we’re heading to an
“Investors are fleeing the financials at the outright bear market.”
highest rate in years” – CNBC
How does a stock market crash affect
“Bear Market in Stocks, Weak Yuan Show property prices?
China Problems Piling Up” – Bloomberg
Blame it on the World Cup. It is a big
“Trade War Hits Stocks as $8 Trillion in Bear distraction from the financial market. In 2014,
Market: Inside EM” – Bloomberg the European Central Bank found a 45
In Singapore, stocks tumbled to 9-month low percent drop in trading volume during
after Trump and Xi exchanged new tariff matches. It fell 55 percent when the home
threats. The Hong Kong stock market was team was playing.
more seriously hit. The Shanghai Composite
Blame it on the trade war. Who knows the two most popular investment tools. If stock
actual scale of economic impact on the rest of prices continue to slide, investors have to
the world when the two biggest countries are cover their margin calls and pay back the
trying to impose more tariffs on each other? stock brokers. They have to dispose their
properties to cover the losses in stocks.
There are more factors to blame: Fed rate
hikes, escalating oil prices, rising US budget Selling a property requires considerable time
deficit … to find a buyer. After that, there is another 12
weeks to complete the sale transaction.
But these are only immediate causes to
That’s why there is a lead time of 3 to 6
shoulder the blame.
months between the stock market crash and
The underlying reasons, as I pointed out in the slump of property prices.
my blog post “When is the next market
Are you infected by the optimism of
crash?”, are higher interest rates putting high
vested stakeholders?
pressure on the borrowers and the Fed’s
unwinding of its sizable bond portfolio in the Be it equities or real estate, there is nothing to
open market. worry about if you are not overleveraged in
your investments. Especially when you are
How would it affect the property market?
constantly reminded in this blog “to be fearful
In Singapore, equities and properties are the when others are greedy”.
Amid mixed property market signals, I hope prophecies come up once again in the
you still stay sensible to tell real facts from market.
wild predictions.
How did they tell you their best kept
We can give licences to property agencies secret?
and their agents. But we cannot regulate the
It’s nothing creative. They keep repeating
fortune telling industry. There are many
three sayings to sell you rare investment
untrained fortune tellers in this market. They
opportunities and hidden gems in this market.
are free to approach customers and speak to
the media about their market forecast based “Secret” #1 – Prices will continue to go up
on gut feel and confirmation bias. This time it’s going to be different. Prices
Unfortunately, the media is always the worst won’t come down and will only go up higher
predictor of what is going to happen next. But for many years to come.
since fortune tellers are not certified by any Is there anything in this world that will forever
authority, no one will be held responsible for go up and never go down?
any consequences.
Try saying this to children queuing for the
Time passes and things look up again, with giant rollercoaster or passengers preparing to
mishaps of the victims bygone and mistakes board a flight. You sure can scare the hell out
of fortune tellers forgotten. The same of them.
Remember, the only thing in this world that Singaporeans like to believe in luck: I am
won’t go down is: your age. Let me add one lucky. They are lucky. You can be lucky too.
more thing: the growing number of Let’s all jump on the bandwagon and make
speculators before a market crash. money together.
For speculators, history doesn’t have any The fact is: Ordinary people have limited luck
educational value. They suffer big losses but like to believe that they are lucky. The
every time the market crashes. market is a monster that makes unlucky
people feel they are lucky this time, not
“Secret” #2 – This is the best thing to buy
knowing that they are going to be broke soon.
now
The market tends to make us look foolish
Everyone understands the importance of
most of the time, doesn’t it?
making hay while the sun shines and to do
the right thing when the tide is in your favor. “Secret” #3 – This is going to take over
the world in the future
You believe the analysts have the right set of
data, have done their research and made Many scammers are making use of our
logical conclusions. The developer, agency worship of fashionable technologies to talk us
and your agent are all telling you that this is into buying a highly profitable future product.
the property to buy now. Who cares to look at It is sad to see powerful future technologies
the raw data, run your independent analysis invented for a good cause are being
and come up with your own conclusion? manipulated into an engine of speculation.
Cryptocurrency is a great concept before blockchain platforms may be used for criminal
speculators rushed to join the craze that activities.
resulted in a big price correction. (Read my
Fintech is an indispensable word in any new
earlier post on “Lessons learned from the fall
financial start-up. KPMG said fintech funding
of bitcoin”.)
in Singapore hit a record US$229 million last
Crowdfunding is an excellent financing year. In early December, around 1,000 people
platform to raise funding from like-minded lost millions to local fintech start-up SixCapital
people to accomplish meaningful projects. or SixCap that promised returns up to 18
But con artists are taking advantage of the percent a year.
unregulated market to run scams and ponzi
When will investors share their genuine
schemes that profit their own pockets.
best kept secret?
Blockchain will definitely take over in the
I said this in my book No B.S. Guide to
future. Last year, two proptech companies
Property Investment and let me repeat it
FundPlaces and Reidao used blockchain
again here:
platforms to create property-backed
tokens. The Monetary Authority of Singapore “Till this day I have yet to know anyone who
immediately issued “buyer beware” warnings really became a millionaire by joining any
to caution investors that such property-related unproven get-rich-quick program or investing
in any high-return overseas venture.
And I personally have not met any successful Reason #2: When they themselves are also
investor who lets slip of what new business following the herd, like parrots repeating what
opportunity he is currently exploring, except everyone is saying.
for the few partners he trusts.”
Reason #3: When they are being possessed,
So don’t come and ask me what I am not by the bank after declared a bankrupt, but
researching to invest in next. In my blog, I will by some supernatural force or evil spirits.
only warn you all the hidden traps in this
Any more best kept secret to share in this
market. Like other savvy investors,
market?
investment opportunities and hidden gems
are very personal and we exchanged notes By guest contributor Property Soul, a
with very close investor friends only. successful property investor, blogger, and
author of the No B.S. Guide to Property
Let me summarize three reasons why people
Investment.
won’t hold back their best kept “secret” and
voice it in public.
Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Jul 9 – Jul 13