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Comal Demographic

Independent Update
School Spring 2018
District

Learn from Yesterday…


Understand Today…
Plan for Tomorrow
Economic Conditions – San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA (December 2017)

3.4% 11,082
37,594 new jobs Unemployment 994 more
National rate 1.2% starts than 4Q16
Rate

Job Growth U.S. 3.9% Annual


Texas 3.7% Home Starts
San Antonio MSA 3.0%
New Braunfels 3.0%

-0.5%

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Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy
District Home Sales
2017 Home Sales by Transaction Type

Foreclosures
REO Sales
1.32%
3.02%

New Home Sales


27.96%
2017 District
Home Sales
by Type
Existing Home Sales
67.70%

• In 2017, Comal ISD had more than 5,150 home sales, and roughly 28% were new homes
• The average new home sale price within Comal ISD in 2017 was $315,217
• The average existing home sale price within Comal ISD in 2017 was $275,300

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District Home Price Analysis
Average home sale price analysis, 2010 - 2017

Avg New vs Existing Home Sale Price, 2010 - 2017


$350,000

$300,000

$250,000

$200,000

$150,000

$100,000

$50,000

$0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Avg New Home Avg Existing Home

Avg New Avg Existing


Home Home
2010 $233,534 $215,297
• Between 2010 and 2017, the average new
2011 $250,261 $224,830 home price within Comal ISD has risen
2012 $255,921 $233,191 35%, or $81,680
2013 $269,339 $240,601 • Since 2010, the average existing home
2014 $276,656 $246,392 sale price within the district has risen
2015 $315,986 $253,909
28%, or more than $60,000
2016 $326,965 $262,953
2017 $315,217 $275,300 4
San Antonio New Home Ranking Report
ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 4Q17

Annual Annual
Rank District Name VDL Future
Starts Closings
1 Northside ISD 3,778 3,555 5,802 33,227
2 Comal ISD* 1,782 1,730 3,515 23,761
3 Judson ISD 1,071 974 1,679 5,731
4 Schertz-Cibolo U City ISD 708 705 1,439 6,314
5 Boerne ISD 641 618 1,805 10,925
6 New Braunfels ISD 750 616 1,132 8,352
7 Medina Valley ISD 526 515 863 14,964
8 East Central ISD 497 454 647 4,219
9 North East ISD 339 426 866 6,300
10 Southwest ISD 302 326 292 5,158
11 San Antonio ISD 158 116 211 2,810
12 Seguin ISD 146 110 90 1,791
13 Southside ISD 90 95 112 9,819
14 Navarro ISD 102 84 87 1,238
15 Alamo Heights ISD 80 60 89 68
*Figures based on additional TD Research

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New Housing Activity
Comal ISD
600
Starts Closings

500

400

300

200

100

Starts 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Closings 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1Q 235 307 362 374 358 446 1Q 167 273 263 334 439 362
2Q 274 332 372 346 447 465 2Q 234 268 318 388 376 473
3Q 344 325 417 415 424 458 3Q 278 345 373 375 429 416
4Q 264 288 399 406 376 413 4Q 246 306 340 347 362 479
Total 1,117 1,252 1,550 1,541 1,605 1,782 Total 925 1,192 1,294 1,444 1,606 1,730

• Comal ISD had 1,782 new home starts in 2017, the most annual starts
in more than 11 years
• The district closed more than 1,700 new homes in 2017, the most
annual closings since 2005
• New home inventory is at a healthy 7.2 month’s supply 6
Annual Closings Distribution
Top 10 Subdivisions - 4Q17 (Ranked by Annual Closings)
Annual Quarter
Rank Subdivision Closings Closings VDL Future
1 ZCE-Vintage Oaks at the Vineyard 147 53 161 1,698
2 Johnson Ranch 111 19 263 229
3 Avery Park 110 25 55 90
4 Highland Grove 100 21 149 243
5 ZCE-River Chase 93 32 36 472
6 Elley Crossing 85 15 4 128
7 Kinder Ranch 78 18 300 2,045
8 Magnolia Springs 77 29 105 0
9 West Village at Creekside 71 24 131 137
10 Indian Springs 66 14 92 40
TOTALS 938 250 1,296 5,082

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Vacant Developed Lots Distribution
Top 10 Subdivisions - 4Q17 (Ranked by VDL Inventory)
Annual
Rank Subdivision Closings VDL Future
1 Kinder Ranch 78 300 2,045
2 Johnson Ranch 111 263 229
3 ZCE-Timberwood Park 39 163 370
4 ZCE-Vintage Oaks at the Vineyard 147 161 1,698
5 Highland Grove 100 149 243
6 Hidden Trails 11 140 1,680
7 West Village at Creekside 71 131 137
8 Cloud Country 63 126 207
9 Sterling Ridge 0 122 306
10 Ventana 0 118 553
TOTALS 620 1,673 7,468

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Future Lots Distribution
Top 10 Subdivisions - 4Q17 (Ranked by remaining Future Lots)
Annual
Rank Subdivision Closings VDL Future
1 Kinder Ranch 78 300 2,045
2 ZCE-Vintage Oaks at the Vineyard 147 161 1,698
3 Hidden Trails 11 140 1,680
4 Meyer Ranch 0 0 1,601
5 ZCE-Mystic Shores 43 97 1,411
6 Bracken Ranch 0 0 1,300
7 Cibolo Valley Ranch/Bulverde 0 0 961
8 Chapel Creek 0 0 681
9 Friesenhahn Tract 0 0 676
10 Heather Glen 0 0 625
TOTALS 279 698 12,678

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Overall Housing Data
By Elementary Attendance Zone

ELEMENTARY Annual Quarter Annual Quarter


Inventory VDL Futures
ATTENDANCE ZONE Starts Starts Closings Closings
ARLON SEAY 52 6 59 9 32 52 411
BILL BROWN 209 50 179 58 156 255 5,177
CLEAR SPRING 172 27 231 51 60 172 2,094
FRAZIER 33 9 38 11 19 64 625
FREIHEIT 151 46 106 38 72 183 847
GARDEN RIDGE 151 37 151 52 77 335 759
HOFFMANN LANE 127 38 149 47 75 76 1,635
INDIAN SPRINGS 75 24 77 14 52 93 40
JOHNSON RANCH 191 59 126 34 151 494 3,459
KINDER RANCH 115 22 120 27 80 347 2,135
MORNINGSIDE 154 29 144 40 88 247 847
MOUNTAIN VALLEY 0 0 0 0 1 4 32
OAK CREEK 149 39 145 44 69 284 1,031
RAHE BULVERDE 35 3 37 15 26 182 1,152
REBECCA CREEK 65 9 47 8 52 121 1,625
SPECHT 9 3 21 2 11 172 811
STARTZVILLE 7 0 9 4 4 32 378
TIMBERWOOD PARK 87 12 91 25 45 402 703
TOTALS 1,782 413 1,730 479 1,070 3,515 23,761

Highest activity in the category

Second highest activity in the category

Third highest activity in the category 10


• Comal ISD has 3,500 lots available
District Housing Overview to build on
• The district has more than 23,700
future lots planned
• Of those futures, groundwork is
underway on 1,165 lots
• Also included in the futures are
about 4,700 lots with streets in and
are available for custom home
building with no timeline

Active Development
Future Development
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Residential Activity Saengerhalle Crossing
Rezoning request submitted
for 280 future SF lots
Waiting on traffic analysis
and master plan submission
Dauer Ranch
Master plan approved
in January 2018 for
365 future SF lots

Rippen Ranch
Rezoning request
approved January 2018
for 219 future SF lots

Weltner Farms
Master plan approved for
186 future SF lots in 2016
Final plats for Phase 1&2
approved December 2017

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Residential Activity

August Fields
309 total future lots Saengerhalle
Development agreement
approved December 2017 85 total lots
Groundwork underway on 35 homes occupied
Phase 1 with 93 lots 16 homes under construction
Homes starting by early 2019 Built out by the end of 2018
$205K - $255K

Copper Run
80 total future lots
Groundwork underway
Bailey’s Pond Homes starting mid to late 2018
139 total future lots
Planned Development District
approved April 2017

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Residential Activity
Arroyo Verde
126 total lots
Ph 1 with 52 lots delivered
Homes starting March 2018
$270K - $350K

Wasser Ranch
303 total lots
Ph 1 with 78 lots delivered
First homes under construction
Building 35 – 40 homes in 2018
$280K - $400K

Creekside Ranch
215 total future lots
Future rental home community
Groundwork underway
First move ins by summer 2019
AHV Community 14
Residential Activity

Heather Glen
625 total future lots
Phase 1&2 with 209 lots ~480 future
delivering spring 2018 MF units
Multi-family site with approx.
480 future MF units planned
$240K - $285K

~340 future
MF units

Solms Landing
Future mixed-use development
182 future SF lots
Phase 1 with 60 SF lots starting
groundwork by summer 2018
340 future MF units

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Residential Activity

Chapel Creek
Master plan submitted for 681 future
SF lots and 200 future MF units
SUP waivers granted, no plats
submitted at this time
Groundwork could start by mid
2018 pending city approval

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Residential Activity

Meyer Ranch
Master plan submitted for approx.
1,600 future SF lots. Groundwork
underway on first phase; anticipate
homes starting by late 2018. Mid to Vintage Oaks
high $200s

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Braken Ranch
Residential Activity Master development plan
for 1,300 future SF lots,
and 300 MF units
approved Nov 2016
Indian Creek Farm
Master plan approved
December 2017 for 31
future SF lots

Hidden Trails
1,880 total lots
11 homes occupied
32 homes U/C
Building ~60 homes a year
$230K - $400K

Johnson Ranch
933 total lots
358 homes occupied Diamante Ranch
49 homes U/C Master development plan
Building 120 homes a year for 342 future SF lots,
$275K - $900K approved August 2017
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Residential Activity

Ventana
681 total lots
10 homes started in 2017
118 VDL
Building ~20 homes in 2018
$280K - $400K

Monteola
46 total lots
6 homes occupied
Private gated community
with lots for individual sale
$750K+
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Residential Activity

Kinder Ranch
2,810 total lots
416 homes occupied
21 homes U/C
Building 75 homes a year
$300K - $645K

Highland Estates
192 total lots
Phase 1 with 57 lots
delivered with first homes
under construction
$480K - $725K

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Highland Grove
Residential Activity 768 total lots
327 occupied
26 U/C
Building 80 – 100
homes a year
$230K - $300K

Highland Gardens
Master plan for 160
future SF lots approved
December 2017

Morningside Trails
Master plan for 444
future SF lots approved
August 2017

Parklands
505 total lots
Phase 1 with 113 lots delivering
by March 2018
First homes starting by May 2018
Building ~40 homes in 2018
$215K - $400K 21
Birth Rate Analysis

Comal Kindergarten Enrollment vs. District Births


2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
(2011/12) (2012/13) (2013/14) (2014/15) (2015/16) (2016/17) (2017/18)

Kindergarten Enrollment District Births

Kindergarten District
Ratio
Enrollment Births
2006 (2011/12) 1,287 1,575 0.82
2007 (2012/13) 1,364 1,855 0.74
2008 (2013/14) 1,489 2,052 0.73
2009 (2014/15) 1,438 2,111 0.68
2010 (2015/16) 1,470 2,061 0.71
2011 (2016/17) 1,626 2,091 0.78
2012 (2017/18) 1,610 2,109 0.76

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Ten Year Forecast
By Grade Level
Total %
Year EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth Growth
2013/14 384 1,489 1,454 1,443 1,493 1,516 1,538 1,502 1,531 1,499 1,576 1,418 1,426 1,231 19,500
2014/15 392 1,438 1,585 1,527 1,531 1,572 1,590 1,552 1,574 1,602 1,656 1,531 1,421 1,356 20,327 827 4.2%
2015/16 403 1,470 1,572 1,660 1,621 1,583 1,646 1,687 1,613 1,638 1,711 1,649 1,550 1,359 21,162 835 4.1%
2016/17 385 1,626 1,618 1,710 1,766 1,704 1,670 1,704 1,751 1,686 1,772 1,701 1,671 1,469 22,233 1,071 5.1%
2017/18 420 1,610 1,714 1,677 1,786 1,876 1,812 1,743 1,748 1,839 1,810 1,713 1,715 1,566 23,029 796 3.6%
Feb 2018 422 1,622 1,717 1,696 1,797 1,897 1,812 1,740 1,743 1,834 1,784 1,687 1,643 1,550 22,944
2018/19 420 1,706 1,790 1,842 1,792 1,893 1,984 1,913 1,796 1,841 1,909 1,782 1,718 1,656 24,042 1,013 4.4%
2019/20 420 1,809 1,886 1,937 1,954 1,912 2,015 2,064 1,988 1,897 1,908 1,889 1,813 1,657 25,149 1,107 4.6%
2020/21 420 1,931 2,006 2,046 2,053 2,077 2,033 2,103 2,147 2,102 1,950 1,874 1,906 1,753 26,401 1,252 5.0%
2021/22 420 2,009 2,121 2,152 2,163 2,179 2,187 2,158 2,226 2,284 2,168 1,929 1,895 1,839 27,730 1,329 5.0%
2022/23 420 2,075 2,187 2,249 2,261 2,283 2,300 2,299 2,281 2,379 2,329 2,126 1,952 1,840 28,981 1,252 4.5%
2023/24 420 2,151 2,277 2,338 2,360 2,392 2,408 2,420 2,426 2,435 2,411 2,280 2,148 1,894 30,360 1,379 4.8%
2024/25 420 2,231 2,352 2,424 2,461 2,499 2,521 2,512 2,536 2,566 2,481 2,364 2,301 2,083 31,751 1,391 4.6%
2025/26 420 2,302 2,438 2,504 2,548 2,598 2,639 2,670 2,659 2,704 2,606 2,434 2,389 2,230 33,141 1,390 4.4%
2026/27 420 2,386 2,519 2,602 2,636 2,689 2,739 2,751 2,795 2,814 2,750 2,556 2,461 2,314 34,432 1,291 3.9%
2027/28 420 2,461 2,608 2,683 2,732 2,788 2,835 2,875 2,903 2,977 2,862 2,694 2,584 2,384 35,806 1,374 4.0%
*Yellow box = largest grade per year
*Green box = second largest grade per year

• Comal ISD will enroll more than 25,000 students by 2019


• 5 year growth = 5,952 students
• 2022/23 enrollment = 28,981 students
• 10 year growth = 12,777 students
• 2027/28 enrollment = 35,806 students

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Ten Year Forecast
By Elementary Campus
Classroom 90% HISTORY PEIMS Feb ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Campus Name Capacity Capacity 2016/17 2017/18 2018 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28
Clear Spring Elementary 854 769 729 756 761 797 817 850 877 896 919 948 974 991 1,010
Freiheit Elementary 766 689 551 669 676 720 772 801 842 874 890 905 927 962 1,007
Garden Ridge Elementary 832 749 742 785 796 835 842 941 1,007 1,039 1,102 1,143 1,181 1,214 1,241
Morningside Elementary 876 788 698 723 719 761 799 818 872 920 967 1,007 1,038 1,075 1,102
Goodwin Frazier Elementary 898 808 594 576 585 623 663 691 735 752 750 759 756 756 762
Hoffmann Lane Elementary 876 788 727 768 785 815 862 906 959 996 1,025 1,059 1,085 1,107 1,128
Oak Creek Elementary 766 689 549 529 534 557 604 655 708 758 804 848 900 942 975
Mountain Valley Elementary 744 670 422 429 448 456 476 487 501 535 533 537 534 532 538
Rebecca Creek Elementary 898 808 516 540 543 555 540 553 562 571 579 584 595 606 619
Startzville Elementary 876 788 437 450 430 440 461 497 512 515 528 532 542 548 551
Bill Brown Elementary 832 749 659 673 673 701 745 800 871 928 994 1,061 1,129 1,195 1,257
Indian Springs Elementary 832 749 787 800 804 817 830 845 879 886 895 916 932 946 960
Johnson Ranch Elementary 854 769 358 400 410 475 541 607 655 718 788 858 929 1,010 1,087
Specht Elementary 832 749 709 739 740 747 765 776 792 798 816 825 839 849 853
Kinder Ranch Elementary 832 749 597 614 608 622 668 718 780 842 926 1,012 1,100 1,183 1,273
Rahe Bulverde Elementary 854 769 399 401 400 416 419 443 466 500 547 605 648 687 719
Seay Elementary 876 788 336 378 383 395 409 418 436 456 471 486 507 535 565
Timberwood Park Elementary 832 749 669 665 667 695 720 760 777 791 812 823 833 853 880
ELEMENTARY TOTALS 15,130 13,617 10,479 10,895 10,962 11,427 11,933 12,566 13,231 13,775 14,346 14,908 15,449 15,991 16,527
Elementary Growth 4,276 416 532 506 633 665 544 571 562 541 542 536
Elementary Percent Growth 68.93% 3.97% 4.88% 4.43% 5.30% 5.29% 4.11% 4.15% 3.92% 3.63% 3.51% 3.35%
*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds 90% of stated classroom capacity

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Ten Year Forecast
By Secondary Campus
Classroom 90% HISTORY PEIMS Feb ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Campus Name Capacity Capacity 2016/17 2017/18 2018 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28
Canyon Middle School 1,075 967 1,146 1,187 1,184 874 980 1,100 1,183 1,256 1,346 1,444 1,535 1,598 1,653
Church Hill Middle School 1,124 1,011 991 1,053 1,058 887 937 947 961 1,002 1,055 1,108 1,134 1,156 1,198
Danville Middle School 1,150 1,035 0 0 0 599 661 719 787 822 858 896 949 988 1,033
Mountain Valley Middle School 924 832 741 748 737 745 765 790 807 774 806 855 900 915 919
Pieper Ranch Middle School 1,150 1,035 0 0 0 1,294 1,360 1,425 1,458 1,527 1,547 1,574 1,644 1,726 1,831
Smithson Valley Middle School 1,025 923 1,179 1,194 1,198 602 679 769 857 926 991 1,060 1,152 1,212 1,312
Spring Branch Middle School 1,137 1,023 1,074 1,138 1,123 539 557 592 605 642 668 667 709 755 799
Comal Discipline Center (6-8) 10 10 18 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 7,585 6,825 5,141 5,330 5,318 5,550 5,949 6,352 6,668 6,959 7,281 7,614 8,033 8,360 8,755
Middle School Growth 203 189 220 399 403 316 291 322 333 419 327 395
Middle School Percent Growth 4.11% 3.68% 4.13% 7.19% 6.77% 4.97% 4.36% 4.63% 4.57% 5.50% 4.07% 4.72%
Canyon High School 2,450 2,205 2,586 2,635 2,556 2,727 2,801 2,900 3,072 3,260 3,474 3,669 3,884 4,096 4,305
Canyon Lake High School 1,375 1,237 1,012 1,023 1,010 1,017 1,043 1,032 1,018 1,063 1,068 1,082 1,100 1,115 1,160
Memorial Early College H.S. 400 360 293 324 313 357 367 375 384 400 400 400 400 400 400
Smithson Valley High School 2,450 2,205 2,641 2,758 2,692 2,900 2,992 3,112 3,293 3,460 3,727 4,014 4,211 4,406 4,595
Comal Academy 51 34 51 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34
Comal Discipline Center (9-12) 30 30 42 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 6,675 6,007 6,613 6,804 6,664 7,065 7,267 7,483 7,831 8,247 8,733 9,229 9,659 10,081 10,524
High School Growth 344 191 261 202 216 348 417 486 496 430 422 443
High School Percent Growth 5.49% 2.89% 3.84% 2.86% 2.97% 4.64% 5.32% 5.89% 5.68% 4.66% 4.37% 4.39%
DISTRICT TOTALS 29,390 26,449 22,233 23,029 22,944 24,042 25,149 26,401 27,730 28,981 30,360 31,751 33,141 34,432 35,806
District Growth 4,823 796 1,013 1,107 1,252 1,329 1,252 1,379 1,391 1,390 1,291 1,374
District Percent Growth 27.7% 3.6% 4.4% 4.6% 5.0% 5.0% 4.5% 4.8% 4.6% 4.4% 3.9% 4.0%
*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds 90% of stated classroom capacity

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Summary

• New Braunfels’ unemployment rate is 3.0%.

• Roughly 28% of total district home sales are new homes.

• The average new home sale price within Comal ISD has risen more
than $80,000 since 2010.

• Within Comal ISD, there were more than 1,700 new home starts
and closings in 2017, the most district housing activity since 2006.

• Comal ISD will open two middle schools in the fall of 2018.

• CISD can expect an increase of approximately 5,900 students


during the next 5 years.

• 2022/23 enrollment projection: 28,981 students.

• Comal ISD is projected to have more than 35,800 students for the
2027/28 school year.

www.tdemographics.com 26

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