University of Dhaka

Department of International Business

Course Code: EIB - 508

Course Title: International Financial Management

Term paper
On
The Effect Of Foreign Lending On Domestic Loans: A
Study On Bangladesh

To:
Associate Professor & Chairman
Mohammad Rakib Uddin Bhuiyan
Department of International Business
University of Dhaka

Prepared By
Turjo Mazumder
ID No: 801723031,
Department of International Business
University of Dhaka
 Letter of Transmittal
Aug 8th, 2018
To,
Mohammad Rakib Uddin Bhuiyan
Department of International Business
University of Dhaka

Subject: Submission of term paper on “The Effect Of Foreign Lending On Domestic

Loans: A Study On Bangladesh.”

Dear Sir,
It is an immense pleasure for me to submit you the assignment titled “The Effect Of Foreign
Lending On Domestic Loans: A Study On Bangladesh,” as we all know bad debts in
Bangladesh banking sector is rising year after year and Bangladesh government is taking more
foreign loan to address the liquidity crisis. This is creating a negative impact in our economy
and social life of the general people. This report helped me to know the valuable knowledge
and insights about upcoming challenges all the corporates will face and help me to prepare
myself for the future.

I am thankful to all those persons who provided me important information and gave me
valuable advices. I would be happy if you read the report carefully.

I have tried my level best to complete this assignment meaningfully and correctly, as much as
possible. I hope the report will give a fair idea on the concerned issue. I wish that you would
be very pleased to accept my report and oblige thereby.
Yours Sincerely,

Turjo Mazumder
ID No. 801723031,
Department of International Business
University of Dhaka
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Table of Contents

Letter of Transmittal ............................................................................................................................... 2

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 4

Foreign Debt And Its Impact On Bangladesh .......................................................................................... 5

Debt Analysis of Bangladesh ................................................................................................................... 6

Remedies To Overcome External Debt ................................................................................................... 8

Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 9

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Introduction
Almost every country around the world has some sorts of debts. These debts can be a good if
it is for the infrastructural or economical development which will generate and fixed long-term
income source for the country. The foreign loan can be short term or long term based on the
project or to tackle some sorts of crisis.

However, when it comes to Bangladesh the foreign loan which are been taking from other
nations its not for the economical or infrastructural development rather, to tackle liquidity crisis
the banking sector facing over a long period of time. This report is address how Bangladesh
came to such a scenario, how it can be mitigate, what is the possible worst outcome if it
continues.

In case of Bangladesh it has many problems like savings investment gap, budget deficient and
so on and they borrow from internal and external sources to fill up gap. In fiscal year 2010-
2011 total external debt of amount USD 21347.44 million that is 24.24% of GDP. Each year a
major portion of its budget expenditure get expanded interest payment so the interest payment
impact on growth negatively. From survey for unstable Exchange rate and overseas debt
increased the countries per capita debt liability the by about $2.3 a year on average (2010). In
2008-2009 per capita debt obligation rises $151.21 where in 2003-2004 is $136.92 Zaid Bakth
said that the debt obligation was rising without the citizens knowing why or how the loans are
taken.

On top of all that, the total bad debt in the Bangladesh banking sector grew by 23% in the 12
months to the end of September as the country’s financial institutions continue to struggle with
default loans. At the end of September last year, the bad debt stood at Tk65,731 crore but a
year later, the figure has swollen to more than Tk80,307 crore, data released by the Bangladesh
Bank. In the last three months alone, the amount has increased by Tk6,159 crore. Banks in
Bangladesh granted loans of Tk7,52,730 crore until September 30 this year. Of this amount,
Tk80,307 crore or 10.67% are bad loans, the data showed. Until June this year, the defaulted
loan stood at Tk74,148 crore - or 10.13% of the disbursed amount.

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Foreign Debt And Its Impact On Bangladesh
Foreign debt is an outstanding loan or set of loans that one country owes to another country or
institutions within that country. Foreign debt also includes obligations to international
organizations such as the World Bank, Asian Development Bank or Inter-American
Development Bank. Total foreign debt can be a combination of short-term and long-term
liabilities. Also known as external debt, these outside obligations can be carried by
governments, corporations or private households of a country

External debt has an impact of growth. External debt fulfills the deficit of developing countries
and has negative effect the growth. The basic reason of negative effect is the restriction of
donor agencies. In many other countries the effect is positive because the external debt will
increase capital inflow and it is used for investment and can increase the growth. It will not
only the accumulation of capital it also managerial, technological, technics experts for
economic growth. In 1990 many policymakers and researcher increased their concern about
high external debt in many developing countries limited growth. Many researchers also find
out a non-linear relationship between growth and external debt. And this type of analysis
increased the policy makers’ attention about the impact of debt on growth.

In the past war period developing countries were diversify their economy from agriculture to
industrial and they borrow a lot of finance. But industrial policy gave them poor return and at
the same time agricultural price fall and leading to lower tax revenue. Another reason is oil
crisis and oil price for borrowing. During last 50 years the external debt is a problem faced by
developing countries. On the other hand, external debt is related to many other economic
components statistics show how it is growing and how it is affecting any other components. A
high-level debt can cripple the government operations because debt burden is long term cost
that cannot be reduce times of fiscal stress. According to the IMF Bangladesh ranked as the
47th largest economy in the world in 2010 in PPP terms and 57th largest in nominal terms with
a gross domestic product of US$ 269.3 billion in PPP terms. But improvement outcomes are
not quite good. Because Bangladesh has low savings, low investment depends on external
sources, low income, depends on import goods, low export, political instability, unsustainable
development

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The people of Bangladesh will begin their new fiscal year 2017-18 on July 1 with per capita
debt Tk. 46,000, which was Tk. 40,000 in the fiscal year 2016-17. The size of budget is
increasing every year but internal resource is not increasing. As a result, the government takes
loan from external and internal sources to meet the deficit, according medium-term
macroeconomic policy published on June 1.

The gross debt will stand at Tk. 761,930 crore, of which external loan Tk. 290,430 crore, at the
end of the next fiscal year, which is 34.5 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP),
according to Finance Ministry data. The country has a loan of Tk. 659,390 crore as on June 30
of the running 2016-17 fiscal year, the data show. Bangladesh’s loan dependency is increasing
day by day because of deficit budget every year, according to experts. The country faces a great
challenge because of the loan, as it has to pay a large amount of money as interest, which could
be spent in education and health sectors

Debt Analysis of Bangladesh

Bangladesh total debt service on external debt in US dollar. Bangladesh was last measured at
2017, according to World Bank. Total debt service is the sum of principal repayments and
interest actual paid in foreign currency, goods, or services on long-term debt, interest paid on
short –term debt and repayment to the IMF. The portion of country’s debt that was borrowed
from foreign lenders, these loans including interest must usually be paid in the currency in
which the loan was maid .in order to earn the currency the borrowing country may sell and
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export goods to the lenders country. External debt is borrowed from outside of the country. The
external debt is a powerful tool if it is used prudently in investment or development of a
country. It can enhance investment levels and increase growth rate in the economy, If the debt
servicing cost is low from the returns of the investment .if the cost is high it is slow down the
growth. These loans and interests are paid in the currency in which the loan was received. if
the debtor country have a strong currency , this does not post a significant threat. This country
will be able to pay the debt and service by successfully export goods. On the other hand external
debt is too much burden for a weak economy with weak currency. Developing country cannot
accumulation capitals as they needs to develop.

Currently based on 2017 data the total external debt is now at $28.57 billion dollar and it seems
like nothing is able to stopping it.

From Figure-2, it is observed that the net

borrowing from banking system was
negative in July, FY18. But, Govt.
borrowing from banking system was
positive during July-August, FY18. After
that, the net borrowing through banking
system decreased successively. Govt.
borrowing from the banking system
decreased by Tk. 21141.5 crore during July-
May, FY18. On the other hand, non-bank
govt. borrowing (net) stood at Tk. 44515.4
crore during JulyMay, FY18. As a result,
govt. borrowing (net) from the domestic
sources during July-May, FY18 stood at Tk. 23373.9 crore. The movement in net govt.
borrowing from different domestic sources during July-May, FY18 is demonstrated in Figure-
2.

Figure-3 shows the monthly movement of government net domestic borrowing during JulyMay
of FY18. During the month of May, 2018, Govt. domestic borrowing sharply increased by Tk.
8560.1 crore (borrowed Tk. 295.2 crore from BB, Tk. 4619.6 crore from SBs and Tk. 3645.3

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 crore from non-bank respectively)
which is Tk. 8592.9 crore higher
than that of the month of April,
2018. In the budget of FY18, Tk.
60352.0 crore has been fixed for
borrowing from domestic sources
by the government of which Tk.
28203.0 crore and Tk. 32149.0
crore have been targeted to borrow
from banking and non-banking
sources respectively. During July-
May of FY18, the net repayment and holding of cash balances with Bangladesh Bank stood at
Tk. 2322.2 crore. In addition, the net repayment and holding of cash balances with scheduled
banks stood at Tk. 18819.3 crore during the same period.

Remedies To Overcome External Debt

The government can take many initiatives to reduce such huge external debt. Due to the lack
of monitoring of commercial banks the bad debts for the last 5 years has increased significantly.
Therefore, government has to ensure to reduce corruption and ensure proper monitoring policy
of all commercial banks. Secondly, the loan sanctions to a company should go through proper
channel and the company will only be allowed to avail loan after full and complete audit in
terms finance & operations.

On top, the government also need to ensure the foreign loan need to be invested only on
infrastructural and economical development which will increase long term revenue of a nation.
Furthermore, all loan defaulter and bad debts holders all assets are required to be seized and
put exemplary capital punishment so in near future if anyone people dare to try to swindle
money.

Lastly, the government has to create an independent agency to tackle white collar crimes and
a special tribunal will be required to fast track justice system. In order to ensure proper
judgement been set to right individuals.

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Conclusion
Assessments of both donors and recipients suggest that Bangladesh achieved mixed results in
loan effectiveness, although the country’s performance in utilizing loan seemed to have
improved significantly in recent years. The mixed success of Bangladesh can be traced to
shared failures on the part of both the government and donors.

The governance issues notwithstanding, Bangladesh has attained a measure of success in many
areas of the economy, thanks to entrepreneurial spirits and abilities of the ordinary people and
the dynamism of a vibrant civil society. However, past success is no guarantee for future
success. The requirements of governance vary from one stage of development to the next, and
many aspects of governance that were unimportant in the past are likely to become more critical
as the economy makes the transition from a rural agricultural economy to an urban industry-
cum- service economy. In making the transition, the country has to overcome the serious
infrastructural challenges facing the economy and create an environment that fosters rapid
private sector growth. In infrastructure development, both foreign loan and foreign investment
can play a critical role, but for both, governance matters. With respect to foreign loan, there are
serious concerns on the part of the donors on such matters as financial accountability, contracts
and procurements and fiduciary oversight. Unless these issues are resolved, attracting new
investments to infrastructure is likely to be difficult, thereby jeopardizing the prospects of
further accelerating economic growth in future.

However, one hopes that given the tremendous political pressures that the government faces at
the moment from the general public regarding various types of infrastructure bottlenecks—
particularly, electricity, the government will be catapulted to action to redress these problems.
If this forces the government to start paying attention to the various types of governance issues
that thwart industrial progress that may usher in a new beginning. In that changed context,
foreign loan can be an enormous catalyst for economic development and poverty reduction.
However, if the government dithers and fails to act, that may erode the hard-earned economic
gains achieved by the country and lead to a path of unthinkable human tragedy that the early
prognosticators of doom had imagined. The country is really on the razor edge.
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We have a sophisticated result that shows that external debt stock adversely affect the GDP
growth. So the external debt needs special care about taken. Debt is need for development and
growth in Bangladesh but it is urgent to be more concern about its uses and the services of debt.
In our study we find the external debt costs heavily to the poor people. But in this country the
peoples need a healthy and prosperous life. A healthy life can promote development and
development brings welfare and faster growth. For MDGs target every year Bangladesh need
extra finance. This amount is more than aid and loans. If Bangladesh achieve the MDG then
the debt is more effective. Every year debt service has major allocation in budget but
Bangladesh needs more allocation in education and health sector. So Bangladesh need must
debt relief and writes-off. Because of increasing trend of external debt is a mirror of increasing
of burden. It impact growth adversely. Many international and domestic organizations suggest
debt cancellation is must for Bangladesh. Bangladesh govt. should attention to their citizen’s
development. The poor development poverty makes the debt unsustainable. It hampers the
growth negatively. Being a low-income country Bangladesh hasn’t more resources to pay debt
service. It is a great burden for the country. It reduces the investment and as well as job
opportunity and ultimately reduce the growth. Our analysis result also shows that there is a
significant impact of debt on growth. The debt stock is effect a negative effect. The debt service
affects the economic growth of Bangladesh because the infrastructure sector is very poor and
it takes a long time to implement the main objective of debt. And the debt service payment is
collect from another sector. It is clear that high-level external debt discourage the economic
growth. Capital formation and employed population have positive affect on the economic
growth. Bangladesh hasn’t effective debt management and utilization of external debt.
According to this paper some recommendation is provided to solve the negative impact of
external debt on growth. External debt policy in Bangladesh should be long-term and effective
and exports should be diversified for foreign currency.

The debt management should find out the optimum return sector of debt. The savings should
be properly invested it is a best option of alternate of debt. Bangladesh should reduce
dependency on impact and use the nation’s resources properly. More research should be done
for best use or policy of external debt. Debt management should take policies and make several
strategies to ensure sustainable debt. In addition, Bangladesh should ensure basic needs of
people. Then equal distribution of resources, strong infrastructure, reduces poverty, achieving
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MDG. Some policy can be undertaken to attract FDI and Bangladesh should create favorable
environment for investment of foreigners. Country has to mobilize and channelize their private
investment and resources to these productions that can help to boost up the amount of exports.
The Govt. of Bangladesh has to pay attention to collect debt management data and its item of
expenditure. Nations should have to focus on to increase domestic savings for higher
investment. Especially in Bangladesh political stability is must needed. On the other hand, the
corruption should reduce by close monitoring. The country needs to channelize their external
debt in a way that can create new opportunity of investment and attract more investors in
country or fully debt cancellation to achieving the MDGS.

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