Climate Change and

Food Security in India

Dr. N. Chattopadhyay
Director
India Meteorological
Department
International Symposium on Climate
Change India Meteorological
and Food Security in South Asia Department, Government of
India
August 25-30, 2008 Dhaka, Bangladesh
 Topics of the Presentation
• Indian Agriculture & Its linkage to Weather
• Signals of Climate change based on
historic data
• Projection of climate change in India
• Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
• Adaptation to Climate Change
• Mitigation to Climate Change
 Indian Agriculture
&
Its linkage to Weather
 Indian Agriculture – Strengths and Challenges

ƒ Strong strides made in increasing the production in the past 50 years,

mainly due to adoption of HYVs and other technological developments
ƒ Subsistence agriculture with small land holdings and skewed distribution
of land
ƒ Wide variation in regional productivities
ƒ Majority still depend on rainfed agriculture
ƒ Frequently affected by extreme weather events such as droughts and
cyclones
o Stagnation/decline in yields
o Diversification
o Quality and quantity of water resources
o Increasing population leading to higher (and quality) demand of food
o Increasing urbanization
o Increasing rural migration
o New technologies
Factors influencing agriculture
and food security

ƒ Increasing population
ƒ Growing urbanization
ƒ Decreasing crop land
ƒ Continuing crop loss
ƒ Declining crop production
ƒ Declining bio-diversity
Climate Induced vulnerability of
Agriculture
• Plateau in Agriculture Productivity
• Fluctuating Rabi Productivity
• Kharif v/s Rabi (Rainfed v/s Irrigated)
• Contribution of Agricultural Growth in GDP
• FAO Assessment on Agricultural Productivity in India
• IPCC assessment on Ag. Productivity in India
– 2020 (2.5 to 10%)
– 2050 (5 to 30%)
Multi-decadal changes in Break days during
Monsoon
NUMBER OF BREAK DAYS DURING

PERIOD JULY AUGUST

01-10 11-20 21-31 1-10 11-20 21-31

1888-1917 46 49 53 43 84 26

1918-1947 14 36 21 55 54 25

1948-1977 22 44 64 21 33 41

1978-2003 23 32 39 6 14 37

Data of past 50 years show that number of Break days are more
in July as compared to August
Press Report on Drought
Rise in Extreme
Weather Events
• Frequency of intense
rainfall events has
increased over past
53 years. Extreme
rainfall events also
increased over the
west coast of India
(Analysis of 100
years of data; 1901-
2000).
Observed impacts in South Asia
Intense Rains and Floods
ƒ Serious and recurrent floods in Bangladesh,
Nepal and N-E India in 2002, 2003 and 2004
ƒ Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million
people lost their homes

Droughts
ƒ 50% of droughts associated with El Niño
ƒ Droughts in Orissa (India) in 2000-2002: crop
failures, mass starvation affecting 11 million
people
Cyclones / Typhoons
ƒ Increasing intensity of cyclones formation in Bay
of Bengal and Arabian Sea since 1970
ƒ Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, 2008: 100, 000 deaths
Signals of Climate change
based on historic data
 Climate Change Studies in India (1901-90)

Annual temp. of India. Thick line-five year
running mean
Linear trend expressed as a percentage
of normal per 100 years, 1971-84 for
monsoon rainfall. Hatched areas
indicates negative trend & stipped areas
indicates significance at 5% level
Linear trend of mean annual
temp. (oC/100years). Shaded
areas indicates significance at
95% level
ƒThe temperatures are showing a decreasing trend in almost all the northern parts of the country (north of 23oN) and a rising trend in southern parts (south of
23oN).

ƒAtmospheric pressure shows a fall between second and third decades but does not indicate any significant change after
1930.

ƒSurface air temperature are found to be increasingly at the rate of 0.21oC per 100 years.

ƒMaximum temperature - Trend in maximum termperature show warming by 0.4oC per 100 years based on all the 475
stations.

ƒMinimum temperature - Trend in minimum temperature indicates an overall increase of 0.1oC/100 years
Linear trend(oC/decade) in mean temp. for 1940-90 Linear trend(oC/decade) in diurnal temp.range for
for different seasons over India based on 27 1940-90 for different seasons over India based on
stations (dots) Dot size is related to trend 27 stations (dots). Dot size is related to trend
Annual Ep anomalies (mm/day) between 1961 & 1992 wrt to the
1961-92 mean for three stations & for four seasons. Dashed
lines show best-fit linear trend

Regionally averaged annual Ep anomalies(mm/day) for the period 1961-92

wrt the 1976-90 mean for different seasons over India. Number of stations
is ten between 1961-75 and 1991-92 and 19 between 1976 &1990 . Dashed
lines show best-fit linear trend
Mean linear trend (mm /day/decade) in Ep for
Mean linear trend(mm/day/decade) in PE for1976-90
1940-90 for different seasons over India based on
for different seasons over India based on 10
19 stations (dots). Dot size is related to trend
stations (dots). Dot size is related to trend
Climate Change Studies in India (1901-2003)

Anomaliesof average land surface maximum and minimum air temp. (oC)relative to their respective
mean (1901-2003) values in the two halves of the year over the whole of India. The smoothed curve is
obtained using 21-point binomial filter
Anomaliesof average land surface maximum and minimum air temp. (oC) relative to their
respective mean (1901-2003) values over northern parts of India. The smoothed curve is
obtained using 21-point binomial filter
Time series of rainfall in India during monsoon months of June-
September. The soild straight line indicates trend significant at
99% level
• Analysis of meteorological measurements in India
indicates large difference in trends in the minimum
temperature and cloud amounts between North and
South India.
• There is also asymmetry in the increasing temperature
trends between different seasons in a year.
• These observations along with the occurrence of
extreme weather events leads to the importance of
regional climate changes.
• The interplay between the aerosols, clouds and
mesoscale flows around Indian mountains in global
warming atmosphere may play a crucial role in the
regional climate in future.
 Projection
of climate change in
India
 Climate Projections
Av. Surface temperature : Increase by 2 - 4°C during 2050s
Monsoon Rainfall : Marginal changes in monsoon months (JJAS)
: Large changes during non-monsoon months
No. of rainy days : set to decrease by more than 15 days
Intensity of rains : to increase by 1-4 mm/day
Cyclonic storms : Increase in frequency and intensity of cyclonic
storms is projected

Calculated change (%) in mean seasonal PE for 1oC of
global warming for the CCC experiment. Shaded boxes are
those selected for analysis of the energy and
aerodynamices components of Penman PE
Calculated change (%) in mean
seasonal PE for 1oC of global
warming for the UKTR experiment
Calculated change (%) in mean seasonal PE
for 1oC of global warming for the GFDL
experiment
Number of GCM experiments which
yield an increase in P/PEratio for
each season. Maximum number is
six. Areas of agreement in the sign
of the change between all six GCMs
are shaded
Impact of Climate Change
on
Agriculture
 Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture
in
India

• Agriculture represents a core part of the Indian economy

and provides food and livelihood activities to much of the
Indian population.
• While the magnitude of impact varies greatly by region,
climate change is expected to impact on agricultural
productivity and shifting crop patterns.
• The policy implications are wide-reaching, as changes in
agriculture could affect food security, trade policy,
livelihood activities and water
• Conservation issues, impacting large portions of the
population.
 AR4 WG II - IMPACTS
REGIONAL EFFECTS: Asia

Freshwater Availability:
Decreased river flows after glaciers recede; will decrease.

Floods:
Glacier melt in Himalayas; sea level rise in deltas

Crop yield:
Increase up to 20% in E and SE; decrease up to 30% in S and
central Asia by 2050; hunger risk high
 Impacts on Indian Agriculture –Literature

ƒ Sinha and Swaminathan (1991) – showed that an increase

of 2oC in temperature could decrease the rice yield by
about 0.75 ton/ha in the high yield areas; and a 0.5oC
increase in winter temperature would reduce wheat yield
by 0.45 ton/ha.
ƒ Rao and Sinha (1994) – showed that wheat yields could
decrease between 28 to 68% without considering the CO2
fertilization effects; and would range between +4 to -34%
after considering CO2 fertilization effects.
ƒ Aggarwal and Sinha (1993) – using WTGROWS model
showed that a 2oC temperature rise would decrease wheat
yields in most places.
ƒ Saseendran et al. (2000) – showed that for every one
degree rise in temperature the decline in rice yield would
be about 6%.
 Continued
ƒDecrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in
different parts of India - For example a a 2°C increase in
mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by about
0.75 ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06
ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions.

ƒMajor impacts of climate change will be on rain fed crops

(other than rice and wheat), which account for nearly 60% of
cropland area. In India poorest farmers practice rain fed
agriculture.

ƒThe loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and

25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5°C.
Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat
Production in India
80

75

70
Production , Mtons

65

60

55

50

45

40
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Year

Source: Aggarwal et al. (2002)

Climate Change Scenarios for India
Year Season Increase in Change in
o
Temperature, C Rainfall, %
Lowest Highest Lowest Highest
2020s Rabi 1.08 1.54 -1.95 4.36
Kharif 0.87 1.12 1.81 5.10
2050s Rabi 2.54 3.18 -9.22 3.82
Kharif 1.81 2.37 7.18 10.52
2080s Rabi 4.14 6.31 -24.83 -4.50

Kharif 2.91 4.62 10.10 15.18

Source:
Source:
Aggarwal,
Lal etIARI
al., 2001
Boundary changes for Productivity of
Irrigated Wheat
 Predicted climate change impacts on agriculture
Wheat Production

ƒThe study found that increase in temperature (by about 20C) reduced
potential grain yields in most places. Regions with higher potential
productivity (such as northern India) were relatively less impacted by
climate change than areas with lower potential productivity (the reduction
in yields was much smaller).

ƒClimate change is also predicted to lead to boundary changes in areas

suitable for growing certain crops.
ƒReduction in yields as a result of climate change are predicted to be more
pronounced for rain fed crops (as opposed to irrigated crops) and under
limited water supply situations because there are no coping mechanisms
for rainfall variability.

ƒThe difference in yield is influenced by baseline climate. In sub tropical

environments the decrease in potential wheat.
 Predicted climate change impacts on
agriculture
Rice production

ƒ Overall, temperature increases are predicted to reduce rice

yields. An increase of 2-40C is predicted to result in a
reduction in yields.

ƒ Eastern regions are predicted to be most impacted by

increased temperatures and decreased radiation, resulting in
relatively fewer grains and shorter grain filling durations.

ƒ By contrast, potential reduction in yields due to increased

temperatures in Northern India are predicted to be offset by
higher radiation, lessening the impacts of climate change.

ƒ Although additional CO2 can benefit crops, this effect was

nullified by an increase of temperature
The Study clearly indicates that the yield of wheat,
mustard, barley and chickpea show sign of
stagnation or decrease following rise in
temperature at all the four northern states.
However, the extent of decrease was different for
crops as well as their locations. As a result of
temperature rise
There is growing need to qualify the effects of
rising temperature on yield of crops in different
agroecologies and agri-production
environments.
Similarly, various climate change scenarios
need to be evaluated for these regions and the
specific adoption strategies be evolved.
Simulation models may help a long way in
linking other bio-physical and socio-economic
drivers of agri-production with climate change.
Predicted climate change impact on water
The hydrological cycle is predicted to be
more intense, with higher annual average
rainfall as well increased drought.
There is a predicted increase in extreme
rainfall and rainfall intensity in all three river
basins towards the end of the 21st century .
Number of rainy days decreases in the
western parts of the Ganga basin, but with
increases over most parts of the Godavari
and Krishan basins
Thus, surface water availability showed a
general increase over all 3 basins (though
future populations projections would need
to be considered to project per capita water
availability.
Impacts on food production
ƒ Crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia
ƒ Crop yield decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by 2050.
ƒ In India, wheat yields could decrease by 5-10% per 10C rise in
temperature
Impacts on water resources
ƒ Glacier melt projected to increase flooding, rock avalanches and to
affect water resources within the next two to three decades.
ƒ Salinity of groundwater especially along the coast, due to increases in
sea level and over-exploitation.
ƒ In India, gross per capita water availability will decline from 1820
m3/yr in 2001 to 1140 m3/yr in 2050
 Impacts on coastal areas
ƒ Coastal erosion and inundation of coastal lowland as sea level
continues to rise, flooding the homes of millions of people
living in low lying areas.

ƒ In India, potential impacts of 1 m sea-level rise include

inundation of 5,763 km2. Significant losses of coastal
ecosystems, affecting the aquaculture industry, particularly in
heavily-populated mega-deltas.

ƒ Simulation models show an increase in frequencies of tropical

cyclones in the Bay of Bengal particularly intense events are
projected during the post-monsoon period.

ƒ Sea level rise is projected to displace populations in coastal

zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal areas, loss of crop
yields from inundation and salinization.
Simulated
Forestry
¾ 77% and 68% of the forested grids in India are
likely to experience shift in forest types

¾ Indications show a shift towards wetter forest

types in the northeastern region and drier
forest types in the northwestern region in the
absence of human influence.

¾ Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and

Projected climate warming could also result in a 50 to
70% increase under the B2 scenario

Dry savannah
Xeric Shrub land
Xeric woodland
Tropical Seasonal
Forest
Boreal Evergreen
Tundra
Adaptation to Climate Change
Adaptive capacity to multiple
stressors in India

District-level vulnerability
Lowest Double exposed
Low Urban districts
Medium Missing data
High
Highest
 Response of Farming System
ƒ Crops have to cope with increased variability of
weather, extreme events, and changing climate
patterns throughout the growing season.
ƒ Agriculture may learn to adapt to climate change
but climate variability needs to be combated.
ƒ The frequency of occurrence of extreme climate
conditions dictates the response of agriculture to
climate variability/change.
 Agriculture to Combat Increased
Variability in Weather & Climate
• Heat / Cold Wave

• More variable R/F

• Increased Extremes Weather

Events

• Erratic Onset, advance and

retrieval of Monsoon

• Shift in Active/break cycles

• Intensity and frequency of

Monsoon Systems
Combating climate change risk
ƒ Adaption- a response to actual or expected
effects, that will reduce risk posed to life and
livelihood

- Moderating the adverse impact

- Promoting resilience among vulnerable people
- Local to global

ƒ Mitigation-reducing emissions of GHGs and

sequestering/ storing carbon(ST0)

- Making development choices to curb emissions (LT)

- Creating more C sink
- Taking into account CC damages, sustainability, cobenefit,
partnering, equity and attitudes to risk
 Adaptation
ƒ Intensity farm production
ƒImprove land management practices-soil
&nutrients
ƒ Increase water management
ƒ Reduce inefficiency in water use
ƒPreserve and enhance plant and animal
genetic resources
ƒAdjust food consumption patterns
ƒMaintain dietary quality and diversity
ƒPromote eco-friendly energy use
 Adaptation (contd.)
ƒ Adopt ecosystem based approachs of risk management/
adaptation-

ƒ Shift to different cropping patterns

ƒ Adopt integrated farming system & Integrated agro forestry

systems

ƒ Shift to different fishing practices

ƒ Promote small scale forestry based enterprises for local

income diversification
Vigorous adaptation measures
¾ Improve resilience of vulnerable communities in
the next few decades- implementation of
adaptation through:

ƒ Vulnerability assessments;
ƒ Finacial needs assessments;
ƒ Capacity building and response strategies;
ƒ Integration of aaadaptation actions into sectoral and
national
planning;and
ƒ The development of risk management and risk
reduction
strategies, including insurance, and disaster reduction
strategies.
The broad areas where adaptation programme have been
developed include:

Crop Improvement

Risk financing

Drought Proofing

Disaster Management
Adaptations to Climate Change

• New varieties: drought/heat resistant

• New farm management practices
• Change in land use
• Watershed management
• Agri-insurance
 Agromet Advisory
Services
The Agromet services provide a very
special kind of inputs to the farmer as
advisories that can make a tremendous
difference to the agriculture production by
taking in time actions against extreme
weather events.

This has a potential to change the face of

India in terms of food security and poverty
alleviation.
 TIER 1
Plan For Integrated AAS
Apex Policy Planning
Body

TIER 2
National Agro Met
Service HQ (Execution)

TIER 3
State Agro Met Centres~28
coordination/monitoring

TIER 4
AMFUs
Agro Climatic Zone Level ~ 127 Drivers of Integration-
Need for Crop specific
TIER 5 District Level Advisory
District Level Extension & Training and Village Level Outreach.
Input management as advisory
 Jodha (1989) using observations of adoption and technological
response in post-independent Indian agriculture estimated
response time of 5-15 years for items such as productive life of
farm assets, crop rotation cycles, and recovery from major
disasters.
Broad categories of responses - some of which could be beneficial
regardless of how or whether climate changes - include:

ƒ Improved training and general education of populations dependent

on agriculture.
ƒ Identification of the present vulnerabilities of agricultural systems.
ƒ Agricultural research to develop new crop varieties.
ƒ Food programs and other social security programs to provide
insurance against supply changes.
ƒ Transportation, distribution, and market integration to provide the
infrastructure to supply food during crop shortfalls.
ƒ Removal of subsidies, which can, by limiting changes in prices,
mask the climate change signal in the marketplace.
Immediate task in Preparation for Adaptation to Climate Change
ƒ Improve existing climate scenario projections and the sectoral
impact assessments
ƒ Develop socio economic scenarios in conjunction with India’s
developmental path
ƒ Carry out studies at identified climatically hotspot areas
ƒ Institute an integrated approach to understand the inter-sectoral
linkages affecting the physical and socio economic vulnerabilities at
local levels
ƒ Carry out analysis to formulate adaptation frameworks at these scales
which can provide inputs for the development of a national adaptation plan
for combating the adverse effects of climate change.
Steps Facilitating Adaptation at National and Local Level
• Strengthen policies for food security, forests, manage disasters and
infrastructure development
• Appropriate allocation of funds for National Development Programme
Implementation
• Step up observation systems & technology development and
dissemination
• Strengthen Institutional mechanisms as instruments of adaptation at
local level
• Arrangement of funds for adaptation
• Mainstream climate change concerns and hence adaptation in the
planning process
• Consider Development as one of the pathways for adaptation
 Adaptation Strategies:
Agri-Insurance

ƒ Protection against risk of production loss

due to drought, floods, etc.
ƒ State sponsored so far
ƒ Covers risk for the entire insured area
Need for Designing Improved Agri-
Insurance Scheme
ƒ Premium based on risk profile of the
region and crops
ƒ Objective, independent assessment of
loss using systems research tools such
as GIS, remote sensing and models
ƒ Quick settlement of claims:
reconstructing past using models
Mitigation to Climate Change
 Mitigation
ƒReducing emissions of carbon
dioxide
ƒReducing emissions of methane and
nitrous oxide
ƒSequestering carbon
ƒClean development mechanism
Gobindarampur:
village benefiting from the campaign

Bani and her friends run and

maintain the charging station

Solar lanterns are used in livelihood

activities such as betel leaf
cultivation, coaching centres, and
Solar lanterns have helped shops
families in their daily activities
 Mitigation of Climatic Change/ Feedbacks
on Environment : Information Needs
ƒ Can alternate land use systems such as plantation
crops and agroforestry increase carbon
sequestration and yet meet food demand?
ƒ How much area can be taken out from agriculture for
forestry; where and what policy measures would be
needed?
ƒ How much carbon is conserved by limited tillage
options? For how long and in which regions?
ƒ What policies and technologies would encourage the
farmers to enrich organic matter in the soil and thus
improve soil health?
Mitigation of Climatic Change/
Feedbacks on Environment
ƒ Agro-forestry systems
ƒ Resource conservation technologies
ƒ Enriching soil organic matter
ƒ Biofuels