Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb

UVOZNA ZAVISNOST HRVATSKOG TURIZMA / THE IMPORT DEPENDENCE OF CROATIAN

TOURISM
Author(s): Ljubo Jurčić
Source: Acta Turistica, Vol. 12, No. 1 (lipnja 2000), pp. 3-17
Published by: Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/23235196
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IZVORNI ZNANSTVENI CLANAK ORIGINAL SCIENTIFIC PAPER
UDC/UDK 338.48:339.562>(497.5)

Dr .sc. Ljubo Jurcic*

UVOZNA ZAVISNOST HRVATSKOG TURIZMA

THE IMPORT DEPENDENCE OF CROATIAN TOURISM

SAZETAK: Hrvatski turizam je jedan od znacajnijih sektora hrvatske privrede. Zbog

istrazivanje utjecaja njegovog poslovanja na ostale privredne sektore i komponente bruto
proizvoda znacajna. U ovom radu analizirana je njegova uvozna zavisnost. Za analizu je ko
put-output metoda, koja jedina u ekonomskoj analizi omogucuje, pored direktne, procjenu i i
uvozne zavisnosti. Na temelju procjene direktne i indirektne, odnosno ukupne uvozne ovisno
skog turistickog sektora, odreden je i njegov neto-devizni priljev.
KLJUCNE RIJECI: turizam, uvozna zavisnost, direktna uvozna zavisnost, ukupna uvoz
snost, neto devizni priljev.

SUMMARY: Croatian tourism is one of the key sectors of the Croatian economy. In th
the import dependence of tourism in Croatia is analysed. The input-output method used in
sis is the only method of economic analysis which allows for an estimate of indirect as well
rect import dependence. On the basis of the estimation of the direct and indirect, or total,
pendence of the Croatian tourism sector, its net-currency inflow is determined.
KEY WORDS: tourism, import dependence, direct import dependence, total import dep
net-currency inflow.

Dr.sc. Ljubo Jurcic, asistent naEkonomskom fakultetu Zagreb.

D.sc. Ljubo Jurcic, Assistant lecturer at the Faculty of Economics Zagreb.

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 Acta turistica, Vol 12 (2000), No 1, pp 1-76

METODOLOSKE NAPOMENE METHODOLOGICAL NOTES

Strukturu uvozne zavisnosti pojedinih

The structure of the import depend
of individual
segmenata privrede i pojedinih tokova pro segments of the econom
of individual flows in the process of
cesa reprodukcije moze se najpotpunije
analizirati metodama input-output production
analize.can most comprehensively be
Ova metoda omogucuje utvrdivanje analysed ne
by using an input-output analysis.
samo direktne, nego i indirektneThrough
uvozne zamethod, we can establish not
this
visnosti svakog pojedinog privrednog sekto
only the direct but also the indirect import
ra ili skupine sektora, kao i svake kompo
dependence of each individual sector of the
nente finalne potrosnje. Input-output
economyanaliza
or of a group of sectors, as well as
bazira se na input-output tablicama1.
the dependence of each component of final
Ako neki privredni sektor za ostvariva The input-output analysis is
consumption.
based on iznos
nje svoje proizvodnje trosi odredeni input-output tables.'
neposredno uvezenih reprodukcijskih mate
If an individual sector of the economy,
rijala, onda se odnos izmedu vrijednosti
in order tog
to achieve production, uses a
uvoza i vrijednosti ostvarene proizvodnje
certain amount of directly imported primary
definira kao direktna uvozna zavisnost
material, tog
then the relation between the value
sektora. Medutim, u utrosenim reprodukcij
of that import and the value of realised
skim proizvodima domaceg porijekla production sadr
is defined as the direct import
zan je odredeni iznos uvoza kojidependencesu utrosiliof the given sector.
domaci proizvodaci-isporucitelji pri proiz
However,
vodnji tih proizvoda, kao i dio uvoza koji su the used intermediate products
of
opet domaci snabdjevaci ovih isporucitelja domestic origin contain a certain compo
nent
utrosili u svojoj proizvodnji. Ove uvozne of imports employed by the domestic
manufacturer-supplier
proizvode koji se ugraduju u domaci finalni in making these
products,
proizvod ili uslugu, a koji su isporuceni as well as part of the imports
kroz reprodukcijske proizvode domacih which the domestic suppliers of the manu
proizvodaca, defmiramo kao indirektnu facturer used in the production process.
uvoznu zavisnost. Zbrajanjem direktnog These imported products which are built
uvoza sa sumom indirektnih uvoznih utro into the final domestic product or service,
saka reprodukcijskih proizvoda koji suand which were supplied as part of the in
ugra
termediate
deni u finalni proizvod ili uslugu, dobiva se products of the domestic manu
ukupna uvozna zavisnost promatranog facturers, can be defined as examples of in
direct
sektora. Pokazatelj ukupne uvozne ovisnosti import dependence.
ili uvozni multiplikator nekog sektora By adding direct imports to the sum of
predstavlja s gledista citave privrede thezna
indirect consumption of imported
cajnu velicinu, jer pokazuje kako ce primary
se po or intermediate products which are
vecanje njegove proizvodnje odraziti di into the final product or service, the
built
rektno i indirektno na uvoz cijele privrede.
total import dependence of the observed
Ako promatrani sektor dio svojih proizvoda
sector is obtained. The index of total import

1 Detaljnije o osnovnim input-output tablicama i metodama vidi: Juriic, Lj, Multiplikativni efekti lirvatskog
turiznui, ACTA TURISTICA, br.2/98. str: 128.
See more about basic input-output tables and methods in Jurcic, Lj, Multiplikativni efekti hrvatskog turizma (The
Multiplying Effects of Croatian Tourism), ACTA TURISTICA, No.2/98, p. 128.

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Dr.sc. Ljubo Jurfiic: Uvozna zavisnost hrvatskog turizma

i usluga plasira u inozemstvo, onda nam in dependence or the import multiplier of a

put-output analiza omogucuje najtocniji iz particular sector represents, from the point
raCun njegova neto deviznog priljeva, odno of view of the entire economy, a significant
sno njegov utjecaj na stanje u bilanci placa means of measurement, because it shows
nja. To je zbog jednostavnog razloga zato how an increase in this sector's production
sto pored deviznog odljeva koji je rezultat will directly and indirectly be reflected in
direktnog uvoza promatranog sektora, ova the imports of the economy as a whole. If
metoda ukljucuje i zbroj deviznih odljeva the observed sector markets part of its
kojima se placa uvoz proizvoda koji su mu products and services abroad, then the
indirektno, kroz domace reprodukcijske input-output analysis gives the most precise
proizvode isporuceni. Pored toga, ukupni calculation of its net-currency inflow, or of
uvozni koeficijent nam omogucuje preciz its effect on the balance of payments.
niju analizu utjecaja promjene tecaja nacio
The reason for this is that, apart from
nalne valute, carinskih stopa, uvoznih cijena
currency outflow, which is the result of the
itd. na relativni ekonomski polozaj proma
direct imports in the observed sector, this
tranog sektora i na cijene njegovih proizvo
method also includes the sum of currency
da i usluga.
outflows with which the import of goods
Input-output analiza pored utvrdivanja
that have been supplied indirectly, through
direktne i indirektne, odnosno ukupne uvoz
domestic intermediate products, had been
ne ovisnosti, omogucuje i procjenu uvoza
paid. Furthermore, the total import coeffi
svakog pojedinog sektora koji je uvjetovan
cient enables us to carry out a more precise
proizvodnjom analiziranog sektora.
analysis of the effects of changes in national
currency exchange rates, in tariff rates, in
DIREKTNA UVOZNA OVISNOST import prices, etc, on the relative economic
position of the observed sector, and on the
Direktna uvozna ovisnost u input-outputprices of its goods and services.
analizi izrazena je uvoznim tehnickim koe
Input-output analysis, apart from
ficijentom. Uvozni tehnicki koeficijenti po
establishing direct and indirect, or total,
kazuju koliko je za jedinicu proizvodnje
import dependence, also enables an estimate
sektora j potrebno direktno iz uvozatointer
be made of the imports of each individual
medijarnih proizvoda koji su klasificirani u
sector which are conditioned by the
sektor i.
production of the analysed sector.
Moze se reci da uvozni tehnicki koefi
cijent pokazuje koliki uvoz proizvoda svr
DIRECT IMPORT DEPENDENCE
stanih u sektor i direktno uzrokuje jedinica
proizvodnje sektora j. Iz input-output tabli
ce2 uvozni tehnicki koeficijent se dobije In input-output analysis, direct impo
tako da se vrijednost uvoznih proizvodadependence is expressed by the import t
nical coefficient. Import technical co
svrstanih u sektor i, Xypodijeli s vrijednoscu
proizvodnje sektora j,_Xj. Ako se to napravi cients show how many directly importe
za sve sektore, i tako dobiveni koeficijenti termediate products, which have been cl
postave na odgovarajuca mjesta u matrici, fied in sector i, are necessary for a uni
dobije se uvozna komponenta tehnoloske production in sector j. We can say that
matrice. Elementi ove matrice omogucujuimport technical coefficient shows w

2 Vidi: Juriic, Lj. Shema 1. op.cit. str. 132.

See: JurCic, Lj. Fig. 1. op. cit. p. 132.

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 Acta turistica, Vol 12 (2000), No 1, pp 1-76

kvantitativno utvrdivanje velicine i strukture amount of imports of products classified in

direktne uvozne zavisnosti svakog pojedi
nog sektora, jer svaki njezin element a,y"
predstavlja direktan utrosak uvoznih proiz
voda klasificiranih u sektor i po jedinici
proizvodnje sektora j. Zbog toga j-ti (svaki)
stupac uvozne komponente tehnoloske ma
trice pokazuje velicinu i strukturu direktne
uvozne zavisnosti tog sektora.
UKUPNA UVOZNA OVISNOST
The elements of this matrix enable the ex
sector i is caused by a unit of production in
sector / The import technical coefficient is
calculated by using the input-output table2,
so that the value of the imported products
classified in sector i, Xjj is divided by the
value of production of sector j,_Xj. If this is
done for all sectors, and if the obtained co
efficients are placed in the appropriate posi
tion in the matrix, the result is the import
component of the technological matrix.

Kao sto je prije receno, direktnitent and structure of the direct import de
uvozni
koeficijenti nisu potpuno mjerilo pendence
uvozne of each individual sector to be es
tablished
zavisnosti sektora j, jer su u utrosenim inter quantitatively, because each of
medijarnim proizvodima domace these proizvod
elements a,y" represents the direct con
nje takoder sadrzane odredene kolicine
sumption of imported products classified in
uvoza, sto sacinjava indirektnu uvoznu
sector i,ovi
per unit of production of sector j.
snost toga sektora. Ovu indirektnuTherefore,
uvoznu the j-th (each) column of the im
ovisnost mozemo na jednostavan nacin pro
port component of the technological matrix
racunati oslanjajuci se na interpretaciju
shows the extent and structure of the direct
sektorskog multiplikatora3 r,,. Prema toj
import dependence of the sector.
interpretaciji r,, pokazuje ukupni (direktni i
indirektni) utrosak domacih intermedijarnih
TOTAL IMPORT DEPENDENCE
proizvoda sektora i po jedinici proizvodnje
sektora j. Za pojedine sektore privrednog
As pro
sustava ukupni utrosci intermedijarnih stated above, direct import coeffi
izvoda porijeklom iz svih sektoracients are not a precise measurement of the
sadrzani
import
su, prema tome, u stupcima matricnog mul dependence of sector j, because the
tiplikatora (I - A'1)" consumed intermediate products of domestic
production also contain a certain quantity o
Ako za sve direktne i indirektne utroske imports, which makes up the indirect d
domacih intermedijarnih proizvoda u sekto pendence of this sector. This indirect impor
ru j uzmemo u obzir uvoz koji je utrosendependence
u can be calculated in a simple
manner, by relying on the interpretation of
njihovoj proizvodnji, a koji je definiran nji
hovim uvoznim tehnickim koeficijentom, the sector multiplier3 r,;. According to this
dobije se ukupna uvozna ovisnost. Koristeci
interpretation, r,; shows the total (direct and
matricni racun, ukupan uvoz svakog sektoraindirect) consumption of domestic interme
koji je uvjetovan jedinicom proizvodnje j products of sector i per unit of produc
diate
tog sektora dobije se mnozenjem uvozne
tion of sector j. For individual sectors in the
komponente tehnoloske matrice s matricnim
economic system, the total consumption of
multiplikatorom. Tako dobivena matricaintermediate products originating from all
najcesce se oznacava slovom G. the sectors are therefore contained in the
columns of the matrix multiplier (I - A'1)'

' Vidi: Jurcic.Lj. op cit. str. 137.

See: Jurcic.Lj. op cit. p. 137

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Dr.sc. Ljubo JurCic: Uvozna zavisnost hrvatskog turizma

G = Au (I - A'1)"1 (1) If, for all direct and indirect consump

Svaki stupac G matrice prikazuje ukup
nu velicinu i strukturu uvoza svakog pojedi
nog sektora koja je uvjetovana jedinicom
proizvodnjey'-tog sektora.
Razlika izmedu G matrice i Au matrice,
odnosno izmedu njihovih odgovarajucih
elemenata (ili vektora) daje indirektnu uvoz
nu ovisnost.
STRUKTURA UVOZNE
ZAVISNOSTI
HRVATSKOG TURIZMA
tion of domestic intermediate products in
sector j, the imports which were used in
their production are taken into considera
tion, and which are defined by their import
technical coefficient, the result will be the
total import dependence. By using matrix
calculus, the total imports of each sector,
which are conditioned by a unit of produc
tion in the y'-th sector, is obtained by multi
plying the import component of the techno
logical matrix by the matrix multiplier. The
matrix obtained in this manner is usually
marked by the letter G:

Analizu strukture uvozne zavisnosti hr

G = A" (I - Ad)"' (1)
vatskog turizma izvrsili smo na temelju pro Each column of matrix G shows the total
cjene domaceg bruto proizvoda za 1998.
size and structure of the imports of each
godinu4 i input-output tablica Hrvatske pri
individual sector, which is conditioned by a
vrede za 1987. godinu5. Buduci da za kasni
production unit of the j-th sector.
je godine u Hrvatskoj nisu radene input
output tablice, izvrsili smo procjenu tehnic The difference between matrix G and
matrix Au, that is, between their
kih koeficijenata za 1998. godinu, na teme
lju podataka o strukturi hrvatskog bruto corresponding elements (or vectors) gives
domaceg proizvoda za 1998. godinu i po the indirect import dependence.
modu biproporcionalne RAS metode. Ovu
metodu procjene tehnickih koeficijenata za
THE STRUCTURE OF THE
kasnija razdoblja na temelju originalno
IMPORT DEPENDENCE OF
snimljene input-output tablice za neko pret
CROATIAN TOURISM
hodno (bazno) razdoblje, razvili su pocet
kom sezdesetih godina konstruktori modela
We carried out the analysis of the
privrednog rasta za Veliku Britaniju6. Ova
metoda je, zbog svoje velike pouzdanosti,structure of the import dependence of
Croatian tourism on the basis of an
uz neke dogradnje postala opce prihvacena
u input-output analizi. Od njenih brojnihevaluation of GDP for 199 84 and the inp
primjena u novije vrijeme navodimo dvije:output tables of the Croatian economy fo
Linden & Dietzenbacher u primjeru Europ 19875. Since, in Croatia, input-output tabl
for later years have not been done, a

4 *** Statistiiki Ijetopis 1999. Republika Hrvatska, Dr2avni zavod za statistiku, Zagreb, listop
*** Statistical Yearbook 1999, Republic of Croatia, State Bureau of Statistics, Zagreb, Octo
5 Medusobni odnosi privrednih djelatnosti SR Hrvatske u 1987. godini, DrZavni zavod za statisti
Medusobni odnosi privrednih djelatnosti SR Hrvatske u 1987. godini,(Inter-industry relations
in 1987). State Bureau of Statistics, Zagreb, 1990.
6 O biproporcionalnoj metodi vidi: Stone,R., Brown A., A Computable Model of Economic G
Hall, London, 1962.
See more on the biproportional method in Stone, R„ Brown A., A Computable Model of E
Chapman & Hall, London, 1962.

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 Acta turistica, Vol 12 (2000), No 1, pp 1-76

ske Unije,7 i Gilchrist & St Louis u primjeru
Kanadske privrede.8 Od najnovijih teorij
skih doprinosa razvoju RAS metode navo
dimo: Mesnarda9 i Toha.10 Toh je ujedno
primijenio ovu metodu kod procjene Singa
purske input-output tablice.
RAS metoda se temelji na pretpostavci
da na promjenu svakog tehnickog koefici
jenta" u odredenom vremenskom razdoblju
utjecu dva istovremena utjecaja: efekt sup
stitucije i efekt "fabrikacije". Efekt supstitu
cije i*j pokazuje u kojoj se mjeri neki inter
medijarni proizvod zbog tehnickog napret
ka, promjene relativnih cijena i drugih fak
tora supstituira drugim. Efekt "fabrikacije"
Sj pokazuje promjenu strukture vrijednosti
proizvodnje nekog sektora (j-tog), odnosno
promjenu udjela materijalnih troskova i do
dane vrijednosti u njegovoj ukupnoj vrijed
nosti proizvodnje. Zadatak je metode da
procjeni velicinu oba ova efekta s kojima
treba pomnoziti tehnicki koeficijent a^- iz
baznog razdoblja, kako bi se dobila procjena
novog tehnickog koeficijenta aijy koji je na
stao kao rezultat istovremenog utjecaja ovih
efekata:
estimate of technical coefficients for 1998
was carried out based on the data on the
structure of Croatian GDP for 1998, and
with the help of the biproportional RAS
method. This method for estimating the
technical coefficients for later periods on the
basis of an original input-output table for
one of the preceding (base) periods was
developed at the beginning of the 60s by the
constructors of the model of economic
growth for Great Britain6. This method, due
to its extensive reliability, but with some
adaptations, has become generally accepted
in input-output analysis. Just to mention two
of its numerous recent applications: Linden
& Dietzenbacher in the example of the
European Union,7 and Gilchrist & St Louis
in the example of the Canadian economy.8
One of the most recent theoretical
contributions to the development of the RAS
method was made by Mesnard9 and Toh.10
Toh also applied this method when
estimating the Singapore input-output table.
The RAS method is based on the
assumption that two simultaneous effects
influence the change of each technical
coefficient" in a determined period of time
the substitution effect and the "fabrication"
effect. The substitution effect r( shows to
what extent a particular intermediat
product, due to technological development,

7 Linden, J. A. Dietzenbacher, E. (1995) The determinants of structural change in the European

application ofRAS, SOM Research Report 95D36, University of Groningen.
Linden, J. A. Dietzenbacher, E. (1995) The determinants of structural change in the European
application ofRAS, SOM Research Report 95D36, University of Groningen.
8 Gilchrist, D.A., St Louis, L.V. (1999) Completing input-output tables using partial inform
aplication to Canadian data, u Economic Systems Research, 11. str. 185-193.
Gilchrist, D.A., St Louis, L.V. (1999) Completing input-output tables using partial informa
application to Canadian data, in Economic Systems Research, 11, pp. 185-193.
9 Mesnard, L. (1997) A biproportional filter to compare technical and allocation coefficient variation
Regional Science, 27. str. 541-564.
Mesnard, L. (1997), A biproportional filter to compare technical and allocation coefficient varia
of Regional Science, 27, pp. 541-564.
Toh, M.H. (1998) The RAS approach ill updating input-output matrices: an instrumental variable in
and analysis of structural change, Economic System Research, 10. str. 63-78.
Toh, M.H. (1998) The RAS approach in updating input-output matrices: an instrumental variable in
and analysis of structural change, Economic System Research, 10, pp.. 63-78.
" Definiciju tehnickog koeficijenta vidi: JurCic, Lj. (1998), op. cit. str. 134.
For a definition of the technical coefficient see: Jurcic, Lj. (1998), op. cit. p. 134.

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Dr.sc. Ljubo JurCic: Uvozna zavisnost hrvatskog turizma

a a = r, a,j* s, (2) changes in relative prices and other factors,

is substituted by another. The "fabrication"
odnosno za citavu matricu tehnickih koefi effect Sj shows the change in the structure of
cijenata: the production value of an individual (/-th)
sector, or the change in the participation of
A=R A* S (3) material costs and added value in its total
production value. The aim of this method is
to estimate the extent of both these effects
Metoda zahtijeva minimum osnovnih in by which the technical coefficient a,,- from
formacija: the basic period must be multiplied, in order
to obtain an estimate of the new
- matricu tehnickih koeficijenata A* za
ranije (bazno) razdoblje. technological coefficient which has bee
derived as a result of the simultaneous
- vektor (stupac u matrici) ukupne influence of both these effects:
proizvodnje intermedijarnih aij = r, a,/ Sj (2)
proizvoda u sadasnjem razdoblju,or for the whole matrix of technical
koji se dobije ako se od vektoracoefficients:
ukupne proizvodnje oduzme vektor
finalne potrosnje, i
A=R A* S (3)
This method requires a minimum of
- vektor ukupne potrosnje basic information:
intermedijarnih proizvoda u - the matrix of technical coefficients A
sadasnjem razdoblju, koji se dobije
for the previous (base) period
ako od vektora ukupne proizvodnje
- the vector (column in the matrix) of the
odbije vektor dodane vrijednosti
total production of intermediate products
(domaceg proizvoda).
in the current period, which is derived if
we subtract the vector of final
Prije navedene vektore, za analizu uvoz
consumption from the vector of total
ne zavisnosti hrvatskog turizma u 1998. go
production, and
dini, izveli smo iz strukture bruto dodane
the vector of total consumption of
vrijednosti po NKD12 i bruto domaceg
intermediate products in the current
proizvoda u tekucim cijenama za 1998. go
dinu.13 period, which is derived if we subtract
the vector of added value (of the
domestic product) from the vector of
U ovoj analizi koristena je input-output
total production.
tablica dezagregirana na 20 sektora. Iako
postoje i tablice s 48-sektorskom klasifika We have derived the mentioned vectors

cijom koja daje vise podataka, odlucili smo for the analysis of the import dependence of
se za 20-sektorsku klasifikaciju, jer se svi Croatian tourism in 1998 from the structure
sektori koji su direktno i indirektno poveza of gross added value according to the
ni sa sektorom "turizam" nalaze i u 20-sek National Classification of Activities
torskoj klasifikaciji. U ovim tablicama turi (NKD)12, and the Gross Domestic Product
zam je 16. sektor14. U ovom sektoruat current prices for 1998.13

12 Nacionalna klasifikacija djelatnosti

National classification of industrial activities

1:1 SUH-99, str. 179.

14 Puni naziv sektora je "Ugostiteljstvo i turizam"

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 10 Acta turistica, Vol 12 (2000), No I, pp 1-76

klasificirane su usluge nocenja, ishrane

An input-output table disaggregated i
into
pica, kao i druge ugostiteljske
20 sectors wasiused turisticke
in this analysis.
usluge. Although there are also tables with a 48
sector classification that provide more
Rezultati procjene direktne i ukupne information, we decided on a 20-sector
uvozne zavisnosti hrvatskog turizma, izvr classification, because all the sectors that are
sene pomocu prije navedenih metoda, pri directly and indirectly linked with the
kazani su u tablici 1. U prvom stupcu ove "tourism" sector can be found in the 20
tablice navedeni su sektori isporucitelji hr sector classification. In these tables, tourism
vatskom sektoru turizam, odnosno prvi stu is the 16lh sector.14 This sector includes the
pac ove tablice pokazuje u koje su sektore services of overnight stays, food and drinks,
klasificirani uvozni proizvodi koje hrvatski and all other catering and tourism services.
turizam koristi u realizaciji svoje usluga.
The results of the estimate of the direct
Drugi stupac ove tablice, koji pokazuje veli
cinu i strukturu direktne uvozne ovisnosti and total import dependence of Croatian
turizma, je 16-i stupac uvozne komponente
tourism, carried out using the above
methods, are shown in Table 1. The first
tehnoloske matrice (A") hrvatske privrede.
column of this Table shows the sectors
Treci stupac tablice 1. koji prikazuje ukupnu
uvoznu ovisnost je 16-i stupac G matrice, which supply the Croatian tourism sector. In
izracunate pomocu modela (1). other words, the first column of this table
shows in which sectors the imported
Kod tumacenja rezultata ove analizeproducts used by Croatian tourism in order
to provide its services are classified. The
treba imati u vidu ogranicenja koja proizla
second column of this table, showing the
ze iz samih input-output tablica i iz primije
njenih input-output metoda. U input-outputextent and structure of the direct import
dependence of tourism, is the 16th column of
tablicama su knjizene transakcije koje pri
the import component of the technological
vredne jedinice svrstane u sektor turizam
matrix (Au) of the Croatian economy. The
obavljaju s privrednim jedinicama svrstanim
third
u ostale privredne sektore. Eksterni efekti column of Table 1, which shows the
total
turizma na poslovanje ostalih sektora i na import dependence, is the 16th column
njihov uvoz nije moguce procijeniti na of tematrix G, calculated through model (1).
melju konstrukcijskog oblika (sadrzaja) po When interpreting the results of this
stojecih hrvatskih input-output tablica.analysis, we should bear in mind the limita
Primjerice, u tablicama su iskazane samotions which derive from the input-output ta
knjizene transakcije izmedu poduzeca
bles themselves and the applied input-output
svrstanih u sektor turizam i poduzeca svr
methods. The input-output tables contain the
stanih u sektor trgovine. Direktna kupovina
recorded transactions that the economic
turista u prodavaonicama ne knjizi se u tran
units classified in the tourism sector carry
sakcije s turistickim sektorom u input-out
out with the economic units classified in
put tablicama. Obrtnicke usluge popravka other sectors of the economy. The external
automobila, odjece i slicno, pruzene direkt
effects of tourism on the business of other
no turistima, takoder se ne knjize u transak
sectors and on their imports cannot be esti
cije turistickog sektora sa sektorom obrtni
mated on the basis of the constructional
cke usluge.
form (content) of the existing Croatian in
put-output tables. For instance, the tables
show only the recorded transactions be
tween companies classified in the tourism
The full name of this sector is "Catering and Tourism"

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Dr.sc. Ljubo JurCic: Uvozna zavisnost hrvatskog turizma 11

Mnoga turisticka poduzeca sector

u svojoj
and companies classified in the trade
djelatnosti obavljaju i poslovesector.
trgovine,
The direct purchase by tourists in
proizvodnje prehrambenih proizvoda i
shops is not registered as transactions with
druge djelatnosti. Prema principima izgrad
the tourism sector in the input-output tables.
nje input-output tablica, svako poduzece
Consumer services like the repair of cars,
mora se svrstati samo u jedan sektor, zbog
clothes, etc., provided directly for tourists,
cega poduzeca koja obavljaju nekoliko djeas transactions between
are not registered
latnosti unose odredenu nepreciznost u inand the consumer services
the tourism sector
put-output podatke. Medutim,sector.
ta nepreciz
nost bitnije ne iskrivljuje prikazane medu
Many tourism companies also carry out
sobne odnose privrednih sektora.
trade and take part in the production of food
products and other activities as part of their
Sve ove primjedbe bitnije ne umanjuju
business activity. According to the princi
vrijednost input-output metoda, koje su jos
ples of the construction of the input-output
uvijek najbolje u ekonomskoj analizi u pro
tables, every company must be classified in
cjenjivanju razlicitih meduzavisnosti u pri
only one sector. For this reason, companies
vredivanju.
which carry out several activities cause cer
tain inaccuracy in input-output data. How
ever, this inaccuracy does not distort signifi
cantly the shown interrelations in the eco
nomic sector.

Tablica 1. Direktni i ukupni uvozni koeficijenti hrvatskog turizma za 1998. godinu

Uvozna zavisnost
Sektor
Direktna Ukupna
1. Energetika 0,012201 0,046570
2. Metalurgija 0,000147 0,004248
3. Proizvodnja i prerada nemetala 0,001764 0,003587
4. Prerada metala 0,005586 0,016288
5. Proizvodnja kemijskih proizvoda i papira 0,002499 0,015097
6. Prerada drveta 0,000441 0,001397
7. Proizvodnja tekstila koze i gume 0,002205 0,004733
8. Proizvodnja prehrambenih proizvoda i duhana 0,135240 0,161112
9. Ostala industrija 0,001470 0,001999
10. Poljoprivreda i ribarstvo 0,005145 0,026107
11. Sumarstvo 0,000000 0,000191
12. Vodoprivreda 0,000000 0,000103
13. Gradevinarstvo 0,000882 0,001441
14. Promet i veze 0,004557 0,008938
15. Trgovina 0,020286 0,023843
16. Ugostiteljstvo i turizam 0,000000 0,000000
17. Obrtnicke usluge i popravci 0,001176 0,001867
18. Komunalne djelatnosti 0,000000 0,000103
19. Ostale proizvodne usluge 0,001029 0,002440
20. Stari materijal i otpaci 0,000000 0,000147
UKUPNO UVOZ 0,194628 0,320210
VRIJEDNOST PROIZVODA 1,000000 1,000000
Izvor: Proracnn na temelju Input-output tablice i bruto domacegproizvoda za 1998. god. SLJH-99.

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 12 Acta turistica, Vol 12 (2000), No I, pp 1-76

Table I - Direct and total import coefficients o

Import dependence
Sector
Direct Total

I. Enei'gy 0.012201 0.046570

2. Metallurgy 0.000147 0.004248

3. Production and Processing of Non-Metals 0.001764 0.003587

4. Processing of Metals 0.005586 0.016288
5. Manufacture of Chemicals and Paper 0.002499 0.015097
6. Manufacture of Woods 0.000441 0.001397
7. Manufakture of Textiles, Leather and Rubber 0.002205 0.004733
8. Manufakture of Food Products and Tobacco 0.135240 0.161112
9. Miscellaneous Manueacturing Industries 0.001470 0.001999

10. Agriculture and Fisheries 0.005145 0.026107

11. Forestry 0.000000 0.000191
12. Operation of Irrigation system. Water works and supply 0.000000 0.000103
13. Construction 0.000882 0.001441
14. Transport and Communications 0.004557 0.008938
15. Trade 0.020286 0.023843
16. Tourism 0.000000 0.000000
17. Arts and Crafts Services and Repairs 0.001176 0.001867
18. Public Utilities 0.000000 0.000103
19. Other Productive Services 0.001029 0.002440
20. Scrap and Waste 0.000000 0.000147
TOTAL IMPORT 0.194628 0.320210
PRODUCT VALUE 1.000000 1.000000

Source: The estimation based on the Input-Output Table and GDP for 1998 SLJH-99

All these comments do not significantly

Podaci iz tablice 1. pokazuju dajedinica
impair the value of input-output methods,
vrijednosti turistickih usluga u Hrvatskoj
which remain the best methods of economic
uvjetuje direktan uvoz od 0,19 jedinica. U
analysis in estimating different inter
novcanim pokazateljima to znaci da 100
dependencies in business operations.
milijuna kuna pruzenih turistickih usluga u
Hrvatskoj uvjetuje direktan uvoz ovogThe sekdata in Table 1 show that a unit of
value
tora od 19,462 milijuna kuna ili 19,462 %.of tourism services in Croatia causes
Kao sto se iz tablice vidi, u direktnom the direct import of 0.19 units. In financial
indices, this means that 100m kuna of
uvozu turizma najvise sudjeluju proizvodi
klasificirani u sektor Proizvodnja prehram tourism services provided in Croatia causes
benih proizvoda i duhana s 13,52%. Na dru direct imports in this sector to the amount of
gom mjestu su usluge uvoza sektora trgovi 19.462m kuna, or of 19.462%. As can be
ne s 2,02 %, a trece mjesto zauzimaju pro seen in the Table, the products classified in
izvodi iz uvoza klasificirani u sektor Ener the food and tobacco sector have the largest
getike s 1,22%. share with 13.52%. In second place are the
import services of the trade sector with
Treci stupac Tablice 1. pokazuje struktu
2.02%, while third place is taken by
ru ukupne uvozne zavisnosti jedinice turisti
cke usluge hrvatskog turizma u 1998.imported
go products classified in the energy
dini. Slicno kao i kod direktne uvozne ovis sector with 1.22%.

nosti, sektor turizam uvjetuje najveci ukupni The third column of Table 1 shows the
uvoz proizvoda svrstanih u prehrambene istructure of the total import dependence of a
duhanske, 16,11%. To je samo za 19,2%unit of tourism services of Croatian tourism

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Dr.sc. Ljubo JurCic: Uvozna zavisnost hrvatskog turizma 13

vise od direktne uvozne zavisnosti. Taj

in 1998. po
Similarly to direct import depend
datak ukazuje da najveci dio proizvoda ence, the tourism sector causes the largest
svrstanih u sektor proizvodnje prehrambe total import of products classified as food
nih proizvoda i duhana uvoze poduzeca koja and tobacco (16.11%). This is only 19.2%
su svrstana u sektor turizam. Medutim, uku more than direct import dependence. This
pni uvoz proizvoda svrstanih u sektor ener datum indicates that the largest part of prod
getike je 3,8 puta veci od direktnog uvoza ucts classified in the food and tobacco sec
proizvoda ovog sektora. tor are imported by companies classified in
Suma indirektnih utjecaja na uvoz rela the tourism sector. However, the total im
tivno je najveca kod proizvoda poljoprivre port of products classified in the energy sec
de i ribarstva. Turizam uvozi direktno tor is 3.8 times larger than the direct import
0,0051 ovih proizvoda za jedinicu svojih
of products in this sector. In relative terms,
usluga, dok ona ukupno iz uvoza koristi
the largest sum of indirect influences on im
ovih proizvoda 0,026 ili 5 puta vise nego
ports is borne by the products of agriculture
direktno. and fisheries. The tourism industry imports
Jedinica turisticke usluge u 1998. directly
godini 0.0051 of these products per unit of
uvjetovala je ukupan uvoz (direktnoitsi services,
indi whereas it uses a total of 0.026
of these
rektno) od 0,32 jedinice. Drugim rijecima, u products, which is 5 times more
than it imports directly.
prihodu hrvatskog turizma od 100 milijuna
kuna, uvozni proizvodi su ukupno (direktno
A unit of tourism services in 1998
i indirektno) sudjelovali s 32 milijuna caused total imports (direct and indirect) to
kuna15. Iz ovog se moze jednostavno izracu the amount of 0.32 units. In other words, i
nati i neto devizni priljev od turizma. Pri the revenue of Croatian tourism to the
mjerice, ako je devizni priljev od turizma 1 amount of 100m kuna, imported products
milijarda US$ tada treba od njega oduzeti accounted for, in total (directly and
ukupnu vrijednost uvoznih roba i usluga indirectly), 32m kuna.15 From this, we can
koji su sudjelovali u stvaranju tog priljeva, u also calculate the net-currency inflow from
nasem slucaju to je 320 milijuna US$ (ili tourism. For example, if the currency inflow
32%) sto daje 680 milijuna dolara cistog from tourism is US$1 bn, then we have to
deviznog prihoda od turizma. Uzimajuci u subtract from this sum the total value of
obzir prije navedene napomene, tofinije de
imported goods and services which
finicija ovog priljeva bila bi: neto devizni contributed to this inflow, which, in our
priljev sektora turizam. Devizne priljeve
case, is the sum of US$320m (or 32%),
koje su od turista direktno ostvarili ostali
which gives $680m of net-currency revenue
privredni sektori u ovom iznosu nisu iska
from tourism. Keeping in mind what has
zani. U procjeni ukupnog utjecaja sektora
been stated, a more precise definition of this
turizam na stanje u bilanci placanja treba
inflow would be the net-currency inflow of
neto deviznom priljevu sektora turisticke
the tourism sector. The currency inflows
privrede dodati i eksterne efekte ovog sekto
realised directly from tourists by other
ra na neto devizni priljev ostalih sektora.
industrial sectors have not been included in
this amount. If we want to estimate the total

15 U input-output tablicama vrijednost uvoznih proizvoda ukljufiuje cijenu franco hrvatska granica uvecanu za
carinu i ostale uvozne pristojbe. Transport od hrvatske granice do konaCnog odrediSta knjizi se u sektor promet
i veze.
In the input-output tables, the value of imported goods includes the price franco Croatian border, increased by
the customs duty and other import charges. Transport from the Croatian border to the final destination is
recorded in the transport and communication sector.

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14 Acta turistica. Vol 12 (2000), No 1, pp 1-76

influence ofsthe
Usporedujuci ove podatke tourism sector
istim poda on the
cima za 1987. godinu vidljivo je da je doslo
balance of payments, we have to add the
do porasta vrijednostiexternal effects that thiskoeficije
navedenih sector has on the
nata. Do ovog je doslonet-currency
najvecim inflow dijelom
of other sectorsizto the
dva razloga: net-currency inflow of the tourism sector.
When these data are compared with the
1) Direktni uvozni koeficijent same data for 1987,hrvatskog
it is evident that there
turizma bio je 1987.hasgodine been a growth0,0042.16
in the value of the stated
Buduci da je tada Hrvatska bila u coefficients. This was caused in part by two
sastavu bivse drzave Jugoslavije, kupfactors:
nje roba i usluga u ostalim republikama 1) The direct import coefficient of Croatian
i pokrajinama tada su spadale u domacu tourism in 1987 was 0.004216. Since at
kupovinu, a ne u uvoz. Udio roba i that time Croatia was part of the former
usluga iz ostalih republika i pokrajina u state of Yugoslavia, the purchase of
jedinici vrijednosti hrvatske turisticke goods and services from the other
usluge sudjelovali su s 0,1298, ili s republics and provinces was treated as a
12,98%.17 To znaci da je direktna domestic purchase, and not an import.
uvozna zavisnost hrvatskog turizma
The share of goods and services from the
1987. godine, racunajuci i "uvoz" iz other republics and provinces in a unit of
ostalih republika i pokrajina, bila value of Croatian tourism services was
13,40%. Ukupna (direktna i indirektna)
0.1298, or 12.98%.17 This means that the
uvozna zavisnost hrvatskog turizma
direct import dependence of Croatian
1987. godine bila je 0,21784, ili 21,784
tourism in 1987, including "imports"
%18, sto je u odnosu na 0,320210 (1998.
from the other republics and provinces,
godine) bilo 32,1% manje.
was 13.40%. The total (direct and
Osamostaljenjem Hrvatske, transakcije
indirect) import dependence of Croatian
s ostalim republikama i pokrajinama
tourism in 1998 was 0,320210 or 32,0%,
bivse zajednicke drzave spadaju u
which meant, when compared with
kategoriju inozemnih. Ovdje je doslo
0,21784 or 21,78% in 198718, a increase
do "efekta supstitucije" jer su domaci
of 32.1%. When Croatia gained its inde
proizvodi supstituirani s uvoznim.
pendence, trade with the other republics
2) Udio reprodukcijske potrosnje u ukup and provinces of the former common
nom prihodu turistickog sektora je po
state entered the category of foreign
transactions. There was now a "substitu
rastao od 1987. do 1998. godine. Uz isti
udio uvoznih proizvoda u reprodukcij tion effect", because domestic products
skoj potrosnji a uz porast udjela repro were substituted by imported ones.
dukcijske potrosnje u ukupnom priho2) The share of intermediate consumption
in the total revenue of the tourism sector
du, povecava se i udio uvoznih proiz
voda u ukupnom prihodu. U ukupnoj grew in the period from 1987 to 1998.
vrijednosti pruzenih turistickih usluga, With the same share of imported
products in intermediate consumption,

lfiJur£ic,Lj. (1998). op. cit. str. 142. Tablica2. stupac4.

17 JuriSic.Lj. (1998). op. cit. str. 142. Tablica2. stupac 5.
'* JurCic, LJ. (1997). Strukturna analiza uvozne ovisno.iti hrvatske privrede, Doktorska disertacija, Ekonomski
fakultet, Zagreb, str. 154. i str. 156.
JurCic, Lj. (1997) Structural Analysis of the Import Dependence of the Croatian Economy Doctoral
Dissertation, Faculty of Economics, Zagreb, p. 154 and p. 156.

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Dr.sc. Ljubo JurCic: Uvozna zavisnost hrvatskog turizma 15

reprodukcijska potrosnja je sudjelovala

and apart from a growth in the share of
1987. godine s 40,78 %19, dok sereproductive
ta vri consumption in total
jednost u 1998. godini popela na 53%.
revenue, the share of imported products
in the
Ovdje se radi o "efektu fabrikacije" tj.total
o revenue also increased. In
promjeni strukture vrijednosti proiz
1987, reproductive consumption had a
vodnje, koja pokazuje da se u ukupnoj
share in the total value of provided
realizaciji hrvatskog turizma povecao
tourism services of 40.78%,19 whereas
udio reprodukcijske potrosnje a this
smanji
value grew to 53% in 1998. In this
la se dodana vrijednost u razdoblju
case, the "fabrication effect" was active,
1987.-1998. godina. that is, the change in the structure of the
Pored svih navedenih promjena, udio value of production, which shows that in
uvoznih proizvoda u vrijednosti hrvatske tu the total realisation of Croatian tourism
risticke usluge ostao je ispod prosjeka hr in the period of 1987-1998, the share of
vatske privrede. Udio uvoza u bruto doma reproductive consumption grew, while
cem proizvodu Hrvatske 1998. godine bio je added value decreased.
49%.20 Ako bi se ovom iznosu na odgovara
In spite of all these changes, the share of
juci nacin dodala uvozna zavisnost domace
imported products in the value of Croatian
proizvodnje, ukupna uvozna zavisnost hr tourism services remained below the aver
vatske privrede bila bi znacajno veca od na
age for the Croatian economy. The share of
vedenog podataka. Ovi podaci ukazuju na
imports in the GDP of Croatia in 1998 was
relativno malu uvoznu ovisnost hrvatskog
sektora turizam.
49%.20 If we add the import dependence of
domestic production to this amount, the total
import dependence of the Croatian economy
ZAKLJUCAK would be significantly higher than the stated
data. These data indicate a relatively small
Struktura uvozne zavisnosti sektora turi import dependence of the Croatian tourism
zam u ovom radu je analizirana pomocu sector.
in
put-output metode. Izvor podataka za ovu
analizu bila je input-output tablica hrvatske
CONCLUSION
privrede za 1987. godinu. Na temelju ove
tablice i pomocu RAS metode i bruto doma
The structure of the import depende
ceg proizvoda za 1998. godinu, procijenjena
je input-output tablica za 1998. godinu. of the tourism sector has been analyse
this work using the input-output met
Rezultati istrazivanja pokazuju relativno
The source of information for this ana
malu direktnu i ukupnu uvoznu zavisnost
was the input-output table of the Croa
ovog sektora. Jedinica turistickih usluga
economy for 1987. On the basis of
uvjetuje direktan uvoz od 0,1946 jedinica
table, and with the help of the RAS me
uvoza. U direklnom uvozu najvise sudjeluju
and GDP figures for 1998, an input-ou
proizvodi svrstani u sektor proizvodnja pre
table for 1998 was constructed.
hrambenih proizvoda i duhana s 13,52% u
ukupnoj vrijednosti hrvatske turisticke uslu The results of this research show a rela
tively small direct and total import depend
ge. Od ostalih proizvoda i usluga u poslova
ence in this sector. A unit of tourism
nju sektora turizam, uvozne usluge sektora

" lzra£unato na temelju input-output tablica hrvatske privrede za 1987. godinu.

Calculation based on the input-output tables of the Croatian economy for 1987.
20 *** (2000) Bilten, br.48. travanj 2000, Hrvatska narodna banka, Zagreb, str. 5.

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16 Acta turistica, Vol 12 (2000), No 1, pp 1-76

trgovine sudjeluju direktno

services scauses
2,02%, a import of 0.1946
the direct
proizvodi sektora energetike
units s
of1,22%.
imports. Products classified in the
Ukupna uvozna ovisnostsector food and
jedinice tobacco have the largest
turisti
share in direct
ckih usluga je 0,32 jedinice, odnosno uvozni imports, with 13.52% of the
total value of Croatian tourism services.
proizvodi u poslovanju hrvatske turisticke
privrede sudjeluju ukupno Among other products
(direktno and services, the im
i indi
port services
rektno) s 32,02 %. Slicno kao i kod of the trade sector participate
direktne
uvozne ovisnosti, proizvodidirectlyprehrambene
with 2.02%, and the products of the
energy
industrije iz uvoza direktno sector with 1.22%.
i indirektno naj
vise sudjeluju u stvaranju The
jedinice
total import vrijed
dependence of a tour
nosti turistickog proizvoda: 16,11%.
ism-service unit is 0.32Proiz
units, that is, im
vodi iz uvoza svrstani u ostale sektore ne
ported goods have a total share (direct and
sudjeluju vise od 5%. indirect) of 32.02% in the business activities
Neto-devizni priljev hrvatskog turistic
of the Croatian tourism industry. Similar to
kog sektora je 68% ukupnog deviznog pri import dependence, imported food
direct
ljeva. Eksterni efekti turizma na devizne
products, directly and indirectly, have the
priljeve ostalih sektora u ovoj analizi greatest
nisu share in making a unit of value of a
procjenjivani. tourism product: 16,11%. Imported products
from other sectors make up no more than
5%. The net-currency inflow of the Croatian
tourisrfi sector amounts to 68% of the total
currency inflow. The external effects of
tourism on the currency inflows of other
sectors have not been estimated in this

analysis.

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Dr.sc. Ljubo JurCic: Uvozna zavisnost hrvatskog turizma 17

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