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EARTHQUAKES AND

SEISMIC HAZARD

Maria Pia Boni

Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale


Politecnico di Milano

Lecco 01-03-2018
WHAT IS AN EARTHQUAKE?

EARTHQUAKES GENERATION PROCESS

ü plates movement

ü crust deformation

ü rupture

ü waves propagation
EARTH STRUCTURE

(USGS)
TECTONIC PLATES
TECTONIC PLATES THEORY

Link to representation of tectonic plates in google earth:


http://www.google.it/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&ved=0CEUQFjAG&url=http%3A%2F%2Fearthquake.usgs.gov%2Flearn%2Fplate-
boundaries.kmz&ei=L5IJVaj6MMfaaO6xglA&usg=AFQjCNG4JkSNNEaVvdvHSyQL2oOraP6Slw&cad=rja
EARTHQUAKES 1990-2005

https://ingvterremoti.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/earthquakes-mondo.gif
“RING OF FIRE”

Long horseshoe-shaped
seismically active belt of
earthquake epicenters,
volcanoes, and tectonic
plate boundaries that
fringes the Pacific basin

Figure source: https://www.britannica.com/place/Ring-of-Fire


TECTONIC PLATES THEORY: PLATE BOUNDARIES

Divergent boundaries
Divergent boundaries occur along spreading centers where
plates are moving apart and new crust is created by magma
pushing up from the mantle.
TECTONIC PLATES THEORY: PLATE BOUNDARIES

Convergent boundaries
Continental vs. Continental
Plates are moving toward each other, and
sometimes one plate sinks (is subducted)
under another. The location where sinking
of a plate occurs is called a subduction
zone.
The type of convergence that takes place
between plates depends on the kind of
lithosphere involved.
Continental vs. oceanic Oceanic vs. oceanic
TECTONIC PLATES THEORY: PLATE BOUNDARIES

Transform boundaries

Crust is neither produced nor


destroyed as the plates slide
horizontally past each other.

Most transform faults are


found on the ocean floor

(e.g. San Andreas fault zone)


FAULTS

Fractures in the rocks of the Earth’s crust, where compressional or tensional


forces cause relative displacements of the rocks

Faults classification

Normal fault Reverse fault Strike-slip fault

In practice: is common to have some combination of fault movements occurring


together.
For example, along California's San Andreas strike-slip fault system, about 95%
of the movement is strike-slip, but about 5% of the movement is reverse faulting
in some areas (source: USGS)
Active faults
known in the
central Italy area
affected by the
2016 august
earthquake
FOCUS AND EPICENTER

The point of sudden energy release is the earthquake focus


The point on the Earth's surface directly above the focus is the epicenter

http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/10m.html
HOW TO MEASURE THE EARTHQUAKES

Macroseismic Intensity, based on: effects on people,


constructions and natural environment

Magnitude, based on: seismometric records

Other parameters (eg.: Peak ground acceleration, response


spectra, etc.) based on: accelerometric records
INTENSITY: MACROSEISMIC SCALES

§ MCS scale (Mercalli, Cancani, Sieberg) used in Italy


§ MSK scale (Medveedev, Sponhauer, Karnik) used in Europe
§ MM scale (Modified Mercalli) used in United States
§ EMS-98 scale (European Macroseismic Scale) actually used
in Europe

§ Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) scale


§ ….
MACROSEISMIC SCALES: comparison

Macroseismic scales
Grado
Grade MCS MSK MM
I not felt - seismometers not felt - seismometers seismometers - felt (few)
II felt (many)
felt (many) felt (many) - effects on
III effect on objects
objects
IV felt (many) - effects on felt (most), effects on
objects objects and constructions
V
felt (most), effects on felt (most), effects on
VI
objects and constructions objects and constructions
VII
effects on objects,
VIII effects on objects, constructions and
constructions and environment effects on objects,
IX
environment constructions and
X
environment
XI
XII
MACROSEISMIC SCALES: EMS-98 (short form )
EMS
Definition Description of typical observed effects (abstracted)
intensity
I Not felt Not felt.
II Scarcely felt Felt only by very few individual people at rest in houses.
III Weak Felt indoors by a few people. People at rest feel a swaying or light trembling.
Felt indoors by many people, outdoors by very few. A few people are awakened. Windows, doors
IV Largely observed
and dishes rattle.
Felt indoors by most, outdoors by few. Many sleeping people awake. A few are frightened.
V Strong Buildings tremble throughout. Hanging objects swing considerably. Small objects are shifted. Doors
and windows swing open or shut.
Many people are frightened and run outdoors. Some objects fall. Many houses suffer slight non-
VI Slightly damaging
structural damage like hair-line cracks and fall of small pieces of plaster.
Most people are frightened and run outdoors. Furniture is shifted and objects fall from shelves in
large numbers. Many well built ordinary buildings suffer moderate damage: small cracks in walls,
VII Damaging
fall of plaster, parts of chimneys fall down; older buildings may show large cracks in walls and
failure of fill-in walls.
Many people find it difficult to stand. Many houses have large cracks in walls. A few well built
VIII Heavily damaging
ordinary buildings show serious failure of walls, while weak older structures may collapse.
General panic. Many weak constructions collapse. Even well built ordinary buildings show very
IX Destructive
heavy damage: serious failure of walls and partial structural failure.
X Very destructive Many ordinary well built buildings collapse.
Most ordinary well built buildings collapse, even some with good earthquake resistant design are
XI Devastating
destroyed.
Completely
XII Almost all buildings are destroyed.
devastating
INTENSITY MAPS

Intensity map of the Irpinia earthquake - 1980 (da http://emidius.mi.ingv.it)


ISOSEISMAL MAP
DERIVED QUANTITY

Epicentral intensity
observed intensity in the area of maximum damage

Epicentral coordinates
coordinates of the center of the area of maximum
damage (may be different from the coordinates derived
from seismograms)
SEISMOGRAPH

In the modern seismographs the pen and the paper are substituted by digital
systems that capture the electrical signals transmitted by an electromagnetic
sensor placed inside the seismometer fixed to the ground
ITALIAN NETWORKS

RAN: 528 digital stations provided with an accelerometer,


RSN: more than 300 stations working a digitizer, a modem/router with antenna to transmit
in real time, connected to the INGV computerized data via GPRS, a GPS receiver to associate
the UTC universal time to the shake and to obtain the
center in Rome station latitude and longitude (at 2014)
RSN station and INGV seismic control room (Roma)

INGV Roma
Example of station
TYPE OF WAVES

P Waves
volume waves

compression waves (primary waves):


from the source in all directions with a
succession from compressions to
expansions

S Waves
shear waves (secondary waves): cause
shifts in the orthogonal direction to the
direction of propagation of the wave
itself
and S waves with the earth's surface
consequence of the interaction of P

Love Waves
surface waves

in the upper layers horizontal


displacements in the direction
perpendicular to the propagation;

Rayleigh Waves
ellipsoid motion in the vertical plane
containing the direction of propagation
Amplitude SEISMOGRAMS

P waves S waves
Surface waves

SATURATION
P-waves and S-waves graph

Differences in arrival times of P and S waves


Time since the beginning of the earthquake (min)

S Wave

P Wave

Distance from epicenter (Km)


RAPID LOCATION OF THE EPICENTER

1500 km

8600 km
MAGNITUDE: definition of ML

RICHTER SCALE (1935)

It’s a logarithm scale, each whole number increase in magnitude represents


a tenfold increase in measured amplitude
ML = log10 A - log10 A0
• A is the max. semi-amplitude of the considered earthquake recorded by
the “standard” seismograph
• A0 is the corresponding size for the earthquake having ML=0;

The “zero” value of that scale is conventionally defined as the semi-


amplitude measure equal to 0.001 mm made by a “standard” seismograph
(Wood-Anderson) located 100km far from the epicenter

Used for distance ≤ 600 km


MAGNITUDE: A0 values related to distances
MAGNITUDE: construction of a graphic scale

1. An arbitrary scale on the magnitude axis (0, 1, 2,…) and a point corresponding to the
distance of 100Km on the distances axis (point “D”) are fixed
2. The intersections among the amplitude axis ad the lines connecting the point “D” with
the point of the magnitude scale (0,1,2,…) identify the amplitude values 0.001, 0.01,
0.1, etc..
3. The values of A0 related to different distances (see table) are identified on the
amplitude axis. The distance scale is built by the lines connecting these points with the
“0” of the magnitude axis (e.g.: A0=0.0001mm ð d=300 km)

Distance
Magnitude

Amplitude (mm)
MAGNITUDE: use of a graphic scale

1. From the graph of the arrival time differences between the S and P
waves the distance from the epicenter is obtained
2. Connecting in the graph the values of the max recorded amplitude and
the distance from the epicenter, the approximated value of the magnitude
is obtained

Amplitude (mm)
Magnitude
Distance
MAGNITUDE: definition of Mb

Mb body-wave Magnitude

Suitable for earthquakes having distance between 600 and 2000km

Mb = log (A/T) + Q(D,h)

• A amplitude of ground motion (in microns);


• T corresponding period (s) restricted to 0.1 ≤ T ≤ 3.0
• Q(D,h) correction factor that is a function of distance, D (degrees),
between epicenter and station (D >= 5°), and focal depth, h (km), of the
earthquake
MAGNITUDE: definition of Ms

Ms surface-wave Magnitude

Ms = log (A/T) + 1.66 log D + 3.3

• A maximum ground amplitude in micrometers (microns) of the vertical


component of the surface wave within the period range 18s ≤ T ≤ 22s
• T period in seconds.
• D distance in geocentric degrees (station to epicenter) and 20° ≤ D ≤ 160°

No depth corrections are applied, and Ms magnitudes are not generally


computed for depths greater than 50 kilometers.

Used for distance greater than 2000 km IASPEI formula


MAGNITUDE: definition of Md

Md duration Magnitude

Suitable for small local earthquakes, is based on the measure of the


duration of the record

Md = A*Log(t) + B*d + C

• t duration of the record


• d distance hypocenter- station
• A,B,C correction parameters
MAGNITUDE: definition of Mw

Mw Moment Magnitude

Is based on the physical meaning of seismic moment Mo


Mw = 2/3 log Mo – 10.7
The seismic moment [N*m] is a measure of the size of an earthquake based
on the area of fault rupture, the average amount of slip, and the force that was
required to overcome the friction along the fault planes. Seismic moment can
also be calculated from the amplitude spectra of seismic waves.
Mo= μ A D
μ = rigidity module of the rock [Pa]
A = L*W = area [m2]
D = average displacement
during rupture [m]
RECORDED ACCELEROGRAMS

2
acc [m/s ]
2

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

-1

-2

-3

t [s]
PRINCIPAL PARAMETERS FROM ACCELEROGRAMS

PGA (m/s2) = max [a(t)] maximum value of the acceleration


in the entire record (peak ground
acceleration)

p tf 2
Arias Intensity (m/s) Ia =
2g ò0
a ( t )dt

2p ò
tf
a 2 ( t ) dt
Destructive potential (m) pd =
0

2g n. a.
RESPONSE SPECTRUM

MOTION
EQUATION

&x& + 2nwx& + w 2 x = -a (t )

circular frequency w2 = k/m


w = 2p/T
natural period T
damping factor ν = b/2ωm

1 degree of freedom oscillator Spectral displacement


Stiffness k Sd = xmax
x = displacement
x& = velocity Spectral pseudo-acceleration
and pseudo-velocity
x&& = acceleration
Sa ≈ wSv ≈ w2Sd
Damping b Mass m
RESPONSE SPECTRUM (Pseudo-acceleration)
RESPONSE SPECTRUM (Pseudo-velocity)

1.6

1.4

1.2

1
0
Sv (m/s)

0.02
0.8 0.05
0.1
0.2
0.6

0.4

0.2

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Periodo proprio (s)
SPECTRAL INTENSITY

Integral from 0.1 to 0.5 s of the pseudo-velocity


response spectrum (damping 5%)
0 .3
P s e u d o v e lo c ità [

0 .2

0 .1

0
0 0 .5 1 1 .5 2 2 .5
P e r io d o p r o p r io [s ]

0.5
SI = ò Sv (T ,0.05) dT
0.1
RESPONSE SPECTRUM (displacement)

0.06

0.05

0.04

0
0.02
Sd (m)

0.03 0.05
0.1
0.2

0.02

0.01

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Periodo proprio (s)
INTENSITY, MAGNITUDE, MAX. ACCELERATION

Empirical relationships
ü epicentral intensity = f (magnitude, focus depth)
ü acceleration = f (intensity)
ü acceleration = f (magnitude, distance)
SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT
AND SEISMIC SCENARIO
SEISMIC SCENARIO AND SEISMIC HAZARD

DETERMINISTIC PROBABILISTIC
V
U
L
SEISMIC SCENARIO N SEISMIC HAZARD
E
R
LOCAL A LOCAL
EFFECTS B EFFECTS
I
L
DETAILED SEISMIC I
LOCAL HAZARD
SCENARIO T
Y

DAMAGE SEISMIC
SCENARIO RISK
HAZARD ASSESSMENT: different approaches

PROBABILISTIC APPROACH (PSHA)


Procedures: methodologies based on probabilistic analysis of the past events
under specific hypotheses

Results: in a site, the probabilities to be affected by an event higher than given


severities in given periods of time. The base result is the distribution function of the
events affecting a site and, consequently, the calculation of the hazard parameters;
e.g.: maximum acceleration (Amax) having a return period of “Tr” years, or, Amax
having exceedance probability of “x”% in “Dt” years

DETERMINISTIC APPROACH (seismic scenario)


Procedures: methodologies based on the evaluation of the propagation in a given
area of a single, specifically chosen, event

Results: seismic scenario: distribution of the seismic parameters in a specific area,


or site, due to the occurrence of a single event
PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT
(PSHA)

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is a procedure that has


the aim of calculating the expected ground motion level in a
given area/site.
To obtain the result, knowledge of structural geology and historic
and recent seismicity is necessary

It’s a characteristic of the area/site, it doesn’t depend on the


structures built there

There are different seismic parameters to measure the hazard.


It’s frequent the use of parameters related to a specific return
period (e.g. ground acceleration, ag, spectral acceleration).
PROBABILISTIC APPROACH: procedure

Approach due to Cornell* (1968) or “Method of the source zones”


ü Internationally most used: simple and can be applied also with a limited
amount of data
ü Based on two restrictive and “strong” hypotheses

Hypotheses
1. Stationary process - Poissonian distribution of the events occurrence:
given a period of time Δt, the average number of
events in Δt doesn’t change at any time you
consider it

2. Uniform spatial distribution - partitioning a source zone in sub-zones,


the occurrence probability of an event in each sub-
zone is the same, independently on the considered
sub-zone
*Cornell C.A., Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bulletin of Seismic Society of America,
58, 1968, pp. 1583-1606
PROBABILISTIC APPROACH: procedure
PROBABILISTIC APPROACH

BASIC ELEMENTS

ü Earthquake Catalogue
ü Seismic Sources
ü Attenuation Laws
EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUE (Italian CPTI04)

N Tr Y M D H Min Sec AE Rt Np Imx Io TL Lat Lon TL

1 DI -217 6 Etruria CFTI 2 100 100 43.250 11.250 A


2 DI -174 Sabina CFTI 1 100 100 42.250 12.670 A
3 DI -100 Picenum CFTI 1 85 85 43.170 13.500 A
4 DI -99 Norcia CFTI 2 90 80 M 42.800 13.100 A
9 DI 17 Reggio C.-Sicilia CFTI 2 85 85 37.800 15.200 A

10 DI 62 2 5 Pompei CFTI 4 90 85 40.780 14.420 A


11 DI 79 8 25 7 Area vesuviana CFTI 6 80 80 40.800 14.380 A

Maw Daw TW Mas Das TS Msp Dsp ZS9 TZ Ncft Nnt Ncpt

6.56 0.27 6.56 0.27 6.56 0.27 921 G 9 1


6.60 0.30 6.60 0.30 6.60 0.30 920 G 13 2
5.84 0.14 5.80 0.21 5.80 0.21 918 G 20 3
5.57 0.19 5.40 0.28 5.55 0.28 923 G 21 4
5.14 0.24 4.76 0.35 4.95 0.32 929 A 40 9
5.87 0.13 5.84 0.19 5.84 0.19 928 G 43 10
5.77 0.15 5.69 0.22 5.69 0.22 928 G 48 11
EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUE (Italian CPTI04)

Cod Description Cod Description


N Order number of record TL Localization code (A) automatic macroseismic, (M)
Tr Kind of record (param. Calculated from macroseismic manual macroseismic, (S) strumental
data or keep from parametric catalogs) Maw Moment Magnitude
Y Origin time:year Daw Error in the evaluation of Maw
M Origin time: month
Tw Determination code of Maw (observed)
D Origin time: day Mas Surface waves Magnitude
H Origin time: hour Das Error in the evaluation of Mas
Min Origin time: minute TE Determination code of M for the “Etnea” zone
Sec Origin time: second Msp Magnitude to be used with the attenuation law
EA Name of the epicentral area “Sabetta Pugliese”

Rt Code of the referring document Dsp Error in the evaluation of Msp

Np Number of intensity data point ZS9 Assigned Source zone of the event

Imx Max Intensity (MCS scale) TZ Source zone assignment code

I0 Epicentral Intensity (MCS scale) Ncft Order number in the catalog CFTI2

TL Kind of determination of I0 Nnt Order number in the catalog NT4.1.1

Lat Epicentral Latitude Ncpt Order number in the catalog CPTI99


Lon Epicentral Longitude
CATALOGUE CPTI04: CRITERIA

ENERGETIC TRESHOLDS
- sections pre-1980: Io ≥ 5/6 ; MCS o Ms ≥ 4.0 (used before in CPTI99 and NT4.1.1)
- sections post-1980: Ms ≥ 4.15
- Etnea zone Ms ≥ 3.0
CRONOLOGIC LIMITS
Events between 217 b.C. and 2002 AD

SEQUENCES ELABORATIONS
There are no aftershocks (events within 90 days and 30 km from the one identified as
“main event”)

GEOGRAFIC LIMITS
Italian events and, if in the boundaries, or near areas, but significantly felt in the
Italian territory

CHOICE OF THE REFERENCE MATERIAL

Gruppo di lavoro CPTI (2004).


Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani, versione 2004 (CPTI04), INGV, Bologna.
SEISMIC SOURCES: sismogenic zones in Italy

Areas that can be considered


homogeneous from a geological,
structural and cinematic point of
view

For each seismogenic zone, an


estimation of the average depth of
earthquakes and prevalent faulting
mechanism was made

Each seismogenic zone is


characterized by a proper
average seismicity defined by the
events distribution and severity
COMPLETNESS OF THE CATALOGUE DATA

The catalogues are not totally complete Þ in a procedure of hazard


assessment, limits must be fixed in the choice of the events to be considered
The probability of a catalogue incompleteness increases considering the
events occurred in a remote past having low severity Þ going back in the
past, the limits (in terms of severity: M, I) must be higher
2000
G1 G2 931
1900

1800

1700

1600
years

1500

1400

1300

1200

1100

1000 Example of completeness


4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 intervals for different
Msp seismogenetic zones in Italy
EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE: MODELS

Estimation of the annual rate of earthquakes related to the magnitude values


(M≥ threshold) in a source zone.
There are various models to estimate/calculate those rates, as examples:
• the frequency-magnitude relationship due to Gutenberg and Richter (1956),
log10N = a - bM;
where N is the number of earthquakes with magnitude ≥ M, and a and b are
constants to be defined for each source zone (is then possible to calculate the
rates related to the single M intervals, non cumulated)
• individual rates (AR): dividing the «real»
number of events of the catalogue, by the
related number of years derived for each M
value considering the correspondent
completeness interval

Each model has limits and advantages to


be considered in the choice in the PSHA
study
Example of rates for some source zones in Italy
Gutenberg, B., Richter, C.F., 1956. Magnitude and energy of earthquakes. Ann. Geofis. 9, 1–15
(republished in Annals of Geophysics, 53, 7–12, 2010).
ATTENUATION LAWS

An attenuation law describes the propagation of seismic parameters, as


ground acceleration or intensity, with the distance from the epicenter or
hypocenter (considering also other parameters, like soil type etc.)
1.000
5 6 7

0.100
a/g

0.010

Example of
attenuation law:
acceleration Vs
0.001 distance,
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 depending on
magnitude
Distance [km]
ATTENUATION LAWS: Sabetta-Pugliese ‘96

log10(Y) = a + bM + clog10(R2+h2)1/2 + e1S1 + e2S2 ± s


velocity response spectra, PGA and PGV for horizontal component and fault distance
Freq. Const. Term Mag. Coeff. Dist. Coeff. Site Coeff. Site Coeff.
(Hz) a b c e1 e2 h s
5% damped 0.25 raw -2.409 0.684 -1 0 0.111 2.7 0.303
PSV (cm/sec) smooth -2.500 0.725 -1 0 0.100 2.6 0.319
0.33 raw -2.146 0.675 -1 0 0.109 2.7 0.344
smooth -2.250 0.715 -1 0 0.108 3.0 0.319
• Y: strong motion parameter to be 0.50 raw -2.082 0.706 -1 0 0.157 3.4 0.320
predicted smooth -1.900 0.687 -1 0 0.150 3.6 0.319
0.67 raw -1.647 0.654 -1 0 0.165 4.4 0.270
• M: magnitude
smooth -1.647 0.660 -1 0.010 0.175 4.0 0.315
• R: is the distance (fault or epicentral) 1.00 raw -1.297 0.605 -1 0 0.209 4.2 0.271
in kilometers smooth -1.280 0.612 -1 0.050 0.208 4.4 0.308
1.33 raw -1.006 0.557 -1 0.120 0.208 4.4 0.278
• e1S1 ed e2S2: related to the site smooth -1.000 0.570 -1 0.120 0.190 4.7 0.303
classification (e1S1 is for shallow soils, 2.00 raw -0.650 0.498 -1 0.249 0.124 5.1 0.301
while e2S2 is for deep soils) smooth -0.595 0.500 -1 0.230 0.124 5.0 0.290
2.50 raw -0.281 0.442 -1 0.219 0 4.8 0.285
• a, b, c, coefficients estimated through smooth -0.281 0.445 -1 0.222 0.078 5.2 0.280
nonlinear multiple regression 3.33 raw 0.202 0.354 -1 0.147 0 5.5 0.260
analysis, (c is set equal to –1 and smooth 0.100 0.377 -1 0.185 0.020 5.4 0.260
5.00 raw 0.296 0.326 -1 0.126 0 5.8 0.238
does not vary because it represents
smooth 0.296 0.323 -1 0.161 0 5.7 0.234
the energy decay due to geometric 6.67 raw 0.222 0.311 -1 0.161 0 5.8 0.220
spreading) smooth 0.222 0.310 -1 0.161 0 5.9 0.220
10.00 raw -0.019 0.304 -1 0.194 0 6.3 0.214
• h, is the pseudo-depth determined by
smooth -0.019 0.304 -1 0.161 0 6.2 0.208
regression 15.00 raw -0.312 0.304 -1 0.137 0 6.5 0.194
• s standard deviation of the logarithm smooth -0.312 0.304 -1 0.161 0 6.3 0.200
25.00 raw -0.817 0.336 -1 0.174 0 4.7 0.195
of Y
smooth -0.817 0.330 -1 0.161 0 4.7 0.195
PGA (g) -1.845 0.363 -1 0.195 0 5.0 0.190
PGV (cm/sec) -0.828 0.489 -1 0.116 0.116 3.9 0.249
ATTENUATION LAWS: Ambraseys ‘96

1.600
7.5 7 6.5 6 5.5
1.400 5 4.5 4

1.200

1.000
PSA 5Hz (g)

0.800

0.600

0.400

0.200

0.000
1 10 100
Distanza [km]

Example of attenuation law: spectral ordinates vs distance, depending on magnitude


ATTENUATION LAWS

0
1
2
Io - Ii
3
4
5
6

Distanza (km)

Example of attenuation law: diff. Intensity Vs distance depending on Intensity


PROBABILISTIC APPROACH: procedure

1. Count of the average annual number of events grouped in classes of


magnitude, for each seismogenic zone N(Mi) earthquakes occurrence
2. Partition of each zone (area=A) in k sub-zones (“sufficiently small”,
area=Ak). Considering the hypothesis 2 (uniform spatial distribution), the
number of events in each sub-zone is Nk(Mi) = N(Mi) * Ak / A
3. Determination of the significant events for the studied site: by the
application of an attenuation law to each class of events in each sub-zone
(for all of the zones), the events having, at the site, a severity above a
minimum threshold (e.g. in terms of acceleration/g, named “y”), are
obtained
4. Count of the average annual number of the significant event for the site,
grouped in classes based on acceleration values
5. Calculation of the annual number of events having acceleration ≥ yi, N(yi),
and total number of events per year: λs=N(y1)
6. Calculation of the exceedance probability distribution (1-F(y)) Þ
N(y)=λs [1-Fy(y)]
PROBABILISTIC APPROACH: RESULTS

Results at the site

ü average annual number of events for Amax≥ y: N(y)

ü total average annual number of events per year: λs

ü cumulative distribution function: F(y)

ü exceedance probability distribution: 1 – F(y)


1 1
ü return periods for the acceleration values: Tr = =
N ls[1 - Fy(y)]
ü exceedance probability of the acceleration in Δt years: p
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY IN Δt YEARS

Due to the Poissonian distribution of the events occurrence it’s possible


to express the relation:
- Dt / Tr
p = 1- e
Relation between the exceedance probability “p” of the acceleration
in “Δt” years and the correspondent return period “Tr”
(e.g.: p=10% in Δt =50 years Þ Tr=475 years)

Given “p” in a fixed Δt (= given a return period), using the relation


between the return period and the distribution 1-F(y)
the related acceleration value can be determined
1 1
Tr = =
N ls[1 - Fy(y)]
PROBABILISTIC APPROACH: example of result

1.E+00
Average annual n° of events for Amax classes

1.E-01

1.E-02

1.E-03

1.E-04

1.E-05

1.E-06

1.E-07

1.E-08
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1 1.05 1.1 1.15 1.2 1.25

Amax (g)
PROBABILISTIC APPROACH: example of result

1.E+00

1.E-01

1.E-02

1.E-03
1- F(y)

1.E-04

1.E-05

1.E-06

1.E-07
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3
y (g)
Example of exceedance probability in 50 years

1E+00
in 50 years

1E-01
di Ag in 50 anni
of the acceleration

1E-02
di eccedenza

1E-03
Probability

1E-04
ExceedanceProbabilità

1E-05

1E-06
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3

Ag (g)
LOGIC TREE TO OBTAIN THE AMAX VALUES

Total
weight
HAZARD MAPS IN ITALY

Maximum ground
acceleration with
exceedance probability
10% in 50 years
(Tr = 475 years)

Tr=475 years Tr=2475 years Tr=101 years


DETERMINISTIC APPROACH: procedure

The steps to calculate a seismic scenario are:

ü Choice of the event

ü Application of an attenuation law depending also on the


hazard parameter required

ü (Representation of the parameter obtained)


DETERMINISTIC APPROACH: choice of the event

Criteria:
ü use of the scenario: planning emergency activity for
§ moderate and relatively frequent events
§ violent and relatively rare events
§ maximum credible event
ü type of method

Needed data:
ü Earthquake catalogue
ü Knowledge of the geological structures
DETERMINISTIC APPROACH: methods

physical

simplified
1.000
5 6 7

0.100

+ a/g
0.010

0.001
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Distance [km]
DETERMINISTIC APPROACH: example of result
DETERMINISTIC APPROACH: example of result

GARGNANO GARGNANO

VOBARNO VOBARNO
TOSCOLANO TOSCOLANO
MADERNO MADERNO

rda
GARDONE rda GARDONE
Ga

Ga
di

di
RIVIERA RIVIERA
go

go
La

La
0.55 VILLANUOVA ROE` VILLANUOVA ROE`
SUL CLISI VOLCIANO SUL CLISI VOLCIANO

SALO` SALO` r
2.75
2.65 2.55
2.25
GAVARDO GAVARDO 2.45 2.35 2.15 2.05
1.85
1.95 1.75 1.65
1.55 1.45
1.35 1.25 1.15 1.05 0.95
0.85

0.65 0.75 0.85 0.95 1.05

Amax (m/s2)
COMPARISON OF THE TWO APPROACHES

Probabilistic approach:
• definition of seismic actions for technical codes
• base for risk assessment
• base for prevention policies (e.g.: seismic municipalities
classification in Italy)

Deterministic approach:
base to construct seismic damage scenario for:
• pre earthquake emergency planning
• post earthquake estimate of situation (number of collapsed
buildings, number of victims, number of injured people)