BENJAMIN CENTER [SUNY NEW PALTZ Memorandum To: Richard Gerentine, Chairman Ways and Means Committee Ulster County Legislature From: Gerald Benjamin Director the Benjamin,Center Re: Proposed Line Item Changes Ulster County 2019 Executive Budget Dated: November 15,2018 In response to your request, we have prepared a list of potential line item changes (attached) for the 2019 Ulster County Budget. These are offered in the context of a proposed lower appropriated fund balance, a regularly rising unappropriated fund balance and a reasonable expectation that sales tax revenues for 2018 will exceed expectations. Our analysis indicates that the revenue projections provided by the County Executive are conservative estimates, and there is room for their adjustment. Additionally there were areas of the proposed budget where budgeting increased expenditures would be prudent. The net effect of these proposed revenue and spending changes leaves a total of $620,160 to cover any additional expenditures that legislators may wish to add to the budget this year. Revenues: Our analysis indicates that the 2018 sales tax revenues will likely exceed the projected revenues, and that even with slowing growth in consumer spending next year, the sales tax revenue projection is conservative. We recommend increasing this revenue projection to $124,000,000. By utilizing the monthly gambling revenue data available from the state we calculated and annualized projected average monthly receipts for this revenue source. Based on this, we recommend increasing the gambling revenue projection by $110,000. After examining the Hotel/Motel tax, we conclude that the projected revenues in the executive recommendation are modest given expectations of capturing more revenue from AIRbnbs. We recommend increasing the revenue projection by $75,000. ‘The current executive budget does not include matching fund revenues from the state for the implementation of the countywide shared services plan. Based upon projections provided by the county to the state government, these funds will amount to $567,090, and should be included in the budget. THE BENJAMIN CENTER FOR PUBLIC POLICY INITIATIVES AT SUNY NEW PALTZ 1 Hav Drive - New Paliz, NY 12561-2443 (645) 257-2001- Fax (48) 287-6018 - www newpaltz-edulberimincentrPage 2 of 2 ‘The $75,000 charged to local municipalities for emergency communications unnecessarily shifts the burden for these services on to municipal governments that are less resourced. It ‘must still be borne by county taxpayers. As a form of mandate relief, we recommend that the county eliminate this surcharge. ‘There are three areas, Day Care, Child Care, and the Committee on Special Education, where State and Federal aid funds much of the function, and expenditures for those divisions are inextricably tied to revenues. Based upon a review of past spending patterns and projections, ‘we recommend increases in expenditures in these areas to support conditions that will encourage seeking employment by less affluent county residents, and meet the needs of the children of Ulster County. As noted, the increased expenditures in these areas will partially be offset by increased revenues from State and Federal aid. These are calculated employing proportions derived from the proposed executive budget. The remainder will be more than covered by the projected increases in various revenue streams. Because of the previously mentioned increases in revenues, it would be prudent and fair to taxpayers of Ulster County to reduce the property tax levy by an additional $1,000,000 for 2019. Expenditures: Since we recommend an increase in the sales tax revenues, an increase in the sales tax distribution is necessary. This would amount to an additional $226,888, ‘The intergovernmental collaboration implementation grant funding has a partner share to the municipal governments estimated at $196,324. This should also be included in the budget. Inan effort to reduce overtime in the jail, it would be prudent to fill the vacant corrections officer line that is currently in the budget, and add an additional corrections officer position. ‘The added position (including benefits) would necessitate a $75,000 increase, but would permit a $100,000 decrease in overtime expenditures. Net Outcome: ‘The net result of the adjusted revenue projections and expenditures is a balance of $620,160 to cover any additional expenses that the legislature may wish to recommend for the 2019 budget. 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