Draft Report

PESHAWAR BUS RAPID TRANSIT CORRIDOR PROJECT

REPORT ON SEISMIC HAZARD STUDIES

1. GENERAL

The proposed Project consists of the development of a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)
corridor with a total length of 30 km, to be constructed on a phase wise basis in
Peshawar city about 160 km west of Islamabad. The Scheme will help develop a
sustainable urban transport system in Peshawar, through the delivery of the city’s first
integrated BRT corridor, directly benefiting a population of 0.75 million (Figure-1).
The Project area is in the proximity of the collisional zone between the north moving
Indian Plate and the Eurasian Plate which is over-riding the Indian plate. The collision
tectonics has resulted in the development of series of faults on the Indian plate on
which the Project region is located. This collisional tectonic has resulted in the
occurrence of frequent earthquakes. It is therefore imperative that in accordance with
the guidelines of Building Code of Pakistan (2007), site specific analysis of the
seismicity and hazard due to earthquakes in this region be evaluated and the Project
structures be designed for safety against this hazard.

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Figure-1. Peshawar Bus Rapid Transit (Metrobus) Route Map.

For the Seismic Hazard Studies (SHS), an assessment of regional geological and
tectonic information collected from the available literature and maps has been carried
out. The available geological maps and literature published by Geological Survey of
Pakistan (GSP) have been consulted. The research done by and National Center for
Excellence in Geology (NCEG) and University of Peshawar on geology/tectonics of
the Peshawar basin has also been consulted. The historical and instrumental
earthquake data has also been compiled from the available record. On the basis of this
data, the critical tectonic features affecting the Project area have been identified and
Seismic Hazard Studies (SHS) has been conducted using Probabilistic approach for
selecting the seismic design parameter for the Project in accordance with the Building
Code of Pakistan, Seismic Provisions (2007).

2. SEISMOTECTONIC SETTING OF PAKISTAN

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The accretion of the Indian Plate after north-directed subduction of oceanic crust with
the Kohistan Arc/Asian Craton occurred about 20 Ma ago along a suture stretching
from western Europe through the Alps, Greece, Pakistan, the Himalayas, China before
turning south towards Indonesia. This continental collision zone has since changed
character into a fold-and thrust belt e.g. in the Pakistan region the continent–continent
collision produced several major thrusts and associated strike-slip fault zones.
Structural geometry shows that the duplex stacks in nappe structures became younger
away from the suture zone in the opposite direction that the footwall plate is moving.
Thus, for the Pakistan region the older thrusts are near the Main Mantle Thrust or
suture zone (MMT) and the youngest further down south along the Salt Range Thrust
well within the India plate (Figure-2).

The three major geotectonic provinces are:

• Eurasian Plate (containing the Northern Karakorum Tethyan Zone, The

Karakorum Batholith, Volcanic and Metasediments south of Karakorum
Batholith).
• Kohistan Island Arc.

• Indian Plate.

All provinces have distinctly different lithologies and tectonic settings and are
separated by two major branches of the Indus suture, the Main Karakoram Thrust
(MKT) and Main Mantle Thrust (MMT), [Figure-2]. Both sutures are marked by the
occurrence of a mélange including ultramafic rocks, the southern one also having a
wedge of garnet granulites, the second largest such occurrence in the world.

The geotectonic setting of northern Pakistan is characterized by the occurrence of

ancient island arcs known as the Kohistan Arc and the Ladakh Arc, divided by the
Nanga Parbat Haramosh Massif (NPHM). This region is seismically one of the most
seismically active intercontinental regions in the world.

The last 100 years alone include the 1945 Makran coast earthquake with magnitude
above 8.0, the Mach earthquake in August 1931, Mw 7.3, the Quetta earthquake Mw
7.4 in 1935, the Pattan earthquake Mw 6.3 in 1974, and the recent disastrous

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Kashmir-Hazara earthquake of October 2005, Mw 7.6, which has shaken the entire
region in many ways.

Figure-2. Tectonic Map of Northern Pakistan showings major faults in Northern

Part of Pakistan (After Ahmad Hussain et al.2004).
Many seismically active faults exist in Northern and Southern areas of Pakistan and
more than half of the total population are living with earthquakes and will have to
continue doing that. The geodynamics of northern Pakistan is characterized by the
collision and coalescence of Eurasian and Indian Continental Plates, which were once
detached by the oceanic domains and creation of Kohistan island arc in late
Cretaceous in the collision zone of these plates.

The collisional process started in the late Eocene to early Oligocene with the
formation of the Himalayan Ranges and this process still continues. Relative to
Eurasia, the Indian Plate is still moving northwards at a rate of about 4 cm/year. The
subduction of Indian plate beneath the Eurasian plate has resulted in folding and
thrusting of the upper crustal layers near the collisional boundary (Figure-2).

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The Central Axial Belt likewise marks a zone of subduction of the western part of the
Indo-Pakistan continent under Eurasian Plate. The contact is a westward directed
thrust which has got a surficial expression of 10-15 km width. The former thrust
constitutes the southern suture zone (Tahirkheli et al., 1979), whereas the latter after
encircling the Kabul block on its east in Afghanistan reappears in Pakistan along
Kuner River in the southern periphery of Chitral. It extends in the east as a part of the
Northern Megashear (Tahirkheli et al., 1979), which has afterwards been named Main
Karakorum Thrust (MKT) by Mattauer et al., (1979) along which the ancient
Kohistan island arc has been welded with the Eurasian plate. The compressional
forces being experienced in the NW Himalayan fold and thrust belt are believed to be
a result of the ongoing collision of the Eurasian and Indo-Pakistan plates that took
place in the late Eocene to Early Oligocene. The Indo-Pakistan plate, relative to the
Eurasian plate is still moving northwards at a rate of about 2 mm/year.

The Main Mantle Thrust and the Central Axial Belt constitute two suture zones along
which the Indo-Pakis tan Plate has been juxtaposed with the Kohistan island arc on
the north and Afghan Block of the Eurasian Plate on the west respectively. The
thrusting has been depicted from north to south in the shape of MKT (Main
Karakoram Thrust), MMT (Main Mantle Thrust), MBT (Main Boundary Thrust) and
SRT (Salt Range Thrust), the locations of which are shown in Figures - 2 and 3.

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Figure-3 Tectonic Map of Northern Pakistan showings major faults in Northern

Part of Pakistan (After DiPettero et al. 2008).

2.1 Regional Tectonic Features

The Project area is located in the western Himalayas south of the boundary between
the Indian plate and the Kohistan island arc which is sandwiched between the Indian
and the Eurasian plates. The major faults of the Project region include, from north to
south, the Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT), Kohistan Fault, Main Mantle Thrust
(MMT), Panjal Khairabad Fault and Main Boundary Thrust (MBT). The general trend
of these faults is predominantly east-west with change in trend at the syntaxial bends
(Figures - 2 & 3). The general description of these major faults is as follows:-

Main Karakorum Thrust (MKT): This is the major regional fault representing the
suture zone between the two colliding plates. This fault represents the northern
boundary of the Kohistan island arc and runs eastward to join Indus suture zone in
upper Himalayas and terminates at its junction with Karakoram fault. In the Chitral
and Gilgit area, the rocks of Karakoram Batholith are thrusted over the rocks of
Kohistan Batholith along Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT).

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The Main Karakorum Thrust (MKT) is a regional thrust separating the Asian mass
from Kohistan Island Arc (Figures - 2 & 3). This fault also dips towards the north.
Significant seismic activity, including the earthquake in 1943 with magnitude 6.8, is
associated with this branch of this fault. There is ample neotectonic evidence of its
activity including clear offsets of glacial moraine deposits. It is considered that a
rupture along this feature could involve long portions of the fault system, because it is
comparatively straight over significant distances.

Kohistan Faults: In the Geological Map of NWFP (2006) published by Geological

Survey of Pakistan (GSP in Figure-3), the contact between Kamila Amphibolite
Complex and Indus Suture Melange are shown as Kohistan faults. The Kohistan
Oceanic Arc is bounded in the north by the Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT) and in the
south by the Main Mantle Thrust (MMT). Along these faults, the rocks of Kamila
complex are thrusted over Indus Melange rocks. The Kamila belt is dissected by a
number of small shear zones and is bounded to the north (adjacent to the Chilas
Complex) by a major shear zone, the ‘Kamila Shear Zone’. The boundaries of major
Lithological units within the Kohistan Island Arc (KIA) area are known to be faulted
based on geological mapping. The average rupture length of potential earthquake
faults in the Kohistan province is considered to be in the range of 100 km, based on
examination of map trace lengths and field observations of features during
neotectonic investigations.

Main Mantle Thrust (MMT): Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) is a northward dipping
regional thrust, which separate the Indian Plate from the Kohistan Island Arc. It
extends from Nawagai (Mohmand Agency) in the west to the north of Narran
(Kaghan Valley) in the east where it takes a north eastward bend towards the east of
Bunji and gets truncated by Raikot Fault.

The MMT marks the northern boundary of the NW Himalayan Fold and Thrust Belt
which here is mostly described by a metamorphic and magmatic terrain categorized
by thick stacks of nappes, thrust sheets and mylonitised shear zones (Figure-4). It also
marks the northern collisional boundary of the Indo-Pak plate with the Kohistan
Island Arc and is also known as the Indus Suture.

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Figure-4. Geological Map for part of KPK (GSP, 2006)

Seismicity studies shows different segments of this major fault to be active. It is a

multifaceted fault zone with width varying up to several tens of kilometers and
comprising of a number of thrust sheets that dip between 35 0 and 500 towards the
north. Mostly it divides the mafic and ultramafic rocks of the Kohistan Island Arc
from the sialic rocks of the Indo-Pakistani plate. Metamorphism has affected the
rocks to variable degree with high-pressure.

The Main Mantle Thrust was originally defined as the tectonic boundary between the
metamorphic shield and platform rocks of the Indian plate hinterland and dominantly
mafic and ultramafic rocks of the Kohistan-Ladakh arc complex in Pakistan suggest
that MMT fault contact can be defined as a series of faults, of different age and
tectonic history that collectively define the northern margin of the Indian plate in
Pakistan. On this basis, the faults that define the MMT vary in age from Quaternary
to possibly as old as Late Cretaceous.

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Disjointed lenses of ophiolite mélange that overlie the MMT fault contact and which
intervene between the Indian plate and the Kohistan arc are considered to be part of
the MMT zone that is equivalent with the Indus suture zone.

In areas east of Kharg in Indus Kohistan, where large ophiolite slices are absent, the
MMT would be characterized by the Kohistan-Raikot Fault system and by faults and
mylonite zones that define the northern and eastern flanks of the Nanga Parbat-
Haramosh massif. West of Kharg, the MMT would be represented by the Shergarh
fault at Kharg, the Kohistan fault in the Indus syntaxes, the Kishora fault in Swat, the
Kohistan fault near Chakdara, the Nawagai fault along the west side of the Malakand
slice, imbricate faults along the northern margin of the Dargai melange, the Dargai
fault at Qila and Nawe Kili, and the Nawagai fault to the Afghan border. West of
Kharg, the MMT (Indus Suture) zone would be bounded on the north side by the
Kohistan fault and on the south side by the Shergarh-Kishora-Dargai-Nawagai fault
system.

Indus Kohistan Seismic Zone (IKSZ): On the basis of a micro-earthquake survey

in this region during 1973–1974, a wedge-shaped NW trending structure was
recognized by Armbruster et al. (1978) who named it as the IKSZ. Later workers
confirmed the presence of this 100-km long feature between the HKS and the MMT.
This 50-km-wide zone of seismicity has a nearly horizontal upper surface and a NE
dipping lower surface. Ni et al. (1991), on the basis of relocated hypocenters, have
identified two seismic zones within the IKSZ: a shallow depth zone extending from
the surface to a depth of 8 km and a more pronounced midcrustal zone lying at depths
of 12 to 25 km. The upper boundary at a depth of about 12 km is considered to
represent a decollement surface that decouples the sediments and metasediments from
the basement.

The IKSZ is predominantly a thrust fault with a NW-striking and NE-dipping plane
parallel to the general trend of the MBT to the SE of Muzaffarabad. The FMS of
aftershocks and the Kashmir Hazara earthquake are strongly suggestive of a NW–SE
trending, NE dipping thrust fault, about 90 km in length.

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Some 35 km of this proposed fault follows the NW–SE trending Balakot–Bagh Fault.
The remaining portion of the fault extends beyond the HKS, towards the MMT,
through the crystalline nappe zone where the presence of the BBF has not been
reported. The main shock occurred within the HKS, whereas the major concentration
of the aftershocks lies between the HKS and MMT.

Therefore, it is concluded that the IKSZ is seismically active and was the source of
the Kashmir Hazara earthquake. This is also evident by the occurrence of the second
strongest earthquake of the area, known as 1974 Patten earthquake, having magnitude
of 6.0 and focal depth of 15 km. The FMS of this earthquake is also a NW–SE
striking thrust with minor right-lateral strike slip component. Pennington (1979),
following Armbruster et al. (1978), proposed that the IKSZ extends from the MMT
(near Pattan) to the edge of the HKS.

Panjal-Khairabad Fault: Panjal Thrust is an important active tectonic feature of

regional significance. It runs northwards and parallel to the Main Boundary Thrust on
the western side of Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxes. Both the faults while coming gradually
closer to each other join together about 5 km north of Balakot (Calkin et al., 1975,
Bossart et al., 1984 and Greco, 1991).

A left lateral strike slip fault cuts across both the Panjal Thrust and MBT
approximately 6 km south of Balakot, from where onwards the Panjal Thrust
continues its independent journey southwards. It is traceable up to Garhi Habibullah
from where onward it gets concealed under the Quaternary deposits. In this reach, the
thrust comprises several segments having accumulated length of about 130 km.
Towards west this fault runs nearly east-west after passing through the Gandghar
range near Haripur and joins Khairabad fault located on the northern sideways of
Attock-Cherat range, hence it is referred as Panjal-Khairabad fault. Further west, this
fault is inferred to be concealed under the southern part of the Peshawar basin and
extends further west parallel to MBT towards Afghanistan border (Figures - 3 & 4).

The geologic positioning and seismicity associated with Panjal-Khairabad fault

renders it as active regional tectonic feature capable of generating large earthquake.

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Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis (HKS): is an anomalous folded structure which emanates

from the Pir-Panjal Range in Kashmir and extends northward till Balakot where its
western limb takes a loop to southwest and extends with this trend towards
Muzaffarabad. Calkin et al (1975) had reported a reversal movement on the faults
along the western limb of the Syntaxis. He suggested that the amplified southwest
pressure from the Himalayan boundary faults on the eastern limb of the Syntaxis is
responsible for this reversal. This tectonic scenario in the Syntaxis point out to the
main compressional movements which are shifting to the west and northwest and
stresses generated are stimulating its western limb, which is the abode of the Main
Boundary Thrust (MBT).

The earlier Muzaffarabad Fault, a terminal branch of MBT and the recent mega
Kashmir-Hazara earthquake of October 08, 2005 are located on the western limb of
HKS and are the product of release of energy stored in this zone by east-west
convergence of the HKS. Based on the migration of the epicenters the rupture created
by the devastating event is geologically extended between Bagh and Balakot in
Kashmir. The latest information in hand reveals that seismologically this rupture is
gradually extending towards northwest at shallow depth and resulted in eruption of
over four thousand aftershocks of magnitude 3 to > 5 which are concentrating on the
northern ebb of the HKS.

Main Boundary Thrust (MBT): is one of the youngest among the three mega shears
of the Himalayas which runs all along its length for about 2500 km and in depth it is
shallower than the others. MBT with its tangled roots in the Detachment, one of the
Himalayan Boundary Faults well netted in the Himalayan orogeny will remain a
major threat capable of generating earthquakes of October 08, 2005 level anytime and
anywhere in the region which comes under its fold. It is competent to generate major
events with large ruptures. Its seismic history reveals several great events spread all
along its course in the Himalayan domain. To mention a few, Kangra (1905) and
Bihar (1934) in the Middle and Eastern Himalayas are the ones which had generated
magnitude > 8 level earthquakes. Some of the major towns which come under the
seismic shadow of the MBT in Pakistan are Balakot, Muzaffarabad, Islamabad,
Nathiagali, Murree, and Fateh Jhang and across the Indus is Kohat.

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MBT is the main frontal thrust of Himalayan Range, which runs along the Himalayan
arc for almost 2500 km from the Assam in the east to Kashmir and Parachinar in the
west. MBT along with other associated thrusts forms a sharp conspicuous Hazara-
Kashmir Syntaxis (HKS). This syntaxial bend is the most dominant tectonic feature
of the area as all local major fault systems and geologic structures follow its trend. On
the west side of syntaxial knot, the MBT initially follows a rather southwest trend and
then extend westward reaching Parachinar.

Near its surface trace, the MBT dips northward at a steep angle, which becomes sub-
horizontal with depth. Islamabad-Rawalpindi area is located at a close distance south
of the western limb of the MBT.

A number of large to major earthquakes have occurred along Himalayan Arc east of
the Hazara-Kashmir syntaxes during the last two centuries, which places it amongst
the most active regions of the world. A proportion of seismicity recorded during the
last century is associated with surface and subsurface extensions of MBT and other
associated thrusts. Based on this data, Seeber et al. (1981) have shown that great
earthquakes occurring along Himalayan Arc are probably related to slips taking place
along this quasi-horizontal surface (detachment).

Established on the above, the MBT is considered active having seismic potential
sufficient enough to generate large to major earthquakes.

2.2 Local Tectonic Features

The Project area falls in tectonically active zone due to its location near the collisional
zone between the two tectonic plates. It is situated close to the western boundary of
the Peshawar basin which is bounded by Main Mantle Thrust in the north and
Khairabad/Hissartang Faults in the south (Figures - 3 and 4).

In absence of recorded instrumental monitoring, the seismic hazard of the regions

adjoining the major faults is generally evaluated by historical and recent earthquake
data in those regions, and occasional inspection of general topographic, geological
and tectonic features of the surroundings by the geologists.

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For Peshawar region some studies have been carried out by Geological Survey of
Pakistan and by the Geophysicists of other Agencies, for example Richard C.
Quittmeyer et.al and Ali Hamza Kazmi. These studies however are insufficient for the
assessment of the Seismic Hazard of an area. All significant earthquakes hitting
Peshawar region originate from the Hindu Kush region of Afghanistan or Northern
Pakistan, the local tectonic faults seem to have a meager role in the seismicity of the
city. Moreover, the instrumented earthquake record of the United States Geological
Survey (USGS) for the last fifty years shows that earthquakes of magnitude less than
4.5 and 5.0 have occurred near Peshawar.

As discussed in the Section 2.1, the Nawagai fault and Dargai fault represents the
MMT zone north the Project area (Figure-4). The Nawagai fault is exposed along the
western flank of the Malakand slice where it consistently dips westward structurally
above the Malakand slice (DiPietro et al., 2000). The fault can be traced southward
where it occupies the higher elevation and appears to truncate the Malakand fault.

Further west, the Nawagai fault truncates the Dargai mélange around a series of folds
and then continues to Afghan border where marble forms the hanging wall block
structurally above the Saidu Formation. The Nawagai fault is interpreted as a south to
southeast-directed, syn-metamorphic fault roughly contemporaneous with, but
younger than, the Malakand fault. It is possible that the Nawagai fault actually
represents a series of faults that collectively form the base of the Nawagai mélange.

On the south of the Project area, the inferred trace of east-west trending Panjal-
Khairabad fault appears to pass south of Peshawar and about 6 km south of the project
site. Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) is passing parallel to the Panjal-Khairabad fault
also in the south of the Project site. The Hissartang fault falls in between MBT and
Panjal-Khairabad Fault in Attock-Cherat range.

A subsurface section showing the subsurface geology of the region south of Peshawar
basin (McDougall et al., 1993) is presented in Figure- 5. This section shows that all
the faults of the Attock-Cherat and Kalachitta Ranges dip towards north and pass
below the Peshawar basin and therefore could be critical in the evaluation of seismic
hazard for the Project.

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Figure-5 Subsurface Section (north-south) from Peshawar Basin in north to Kohat

Plateau in south.

In both the northern and southern portions of the Project, complex faulting and thrust
are present. Evidences available suggest that both compressional and extensional
structural features occur with the later predominating.

The evidence of late Quaternary faulting has been reported in areas near Nowshera
(Manki and Ghari Chandan) on the northern side of Cherat range and east of
Peshawar. All these tectonic features may therefore be considered seismically active.

3. EARTHQUAKE RECORD

3.1 General

Earthquakes are generated by tectonic process in the upper part of the earth called
lithosphere that is divided into several rigid parts called as “Plates”. Due to movement
of these plates, stress build-up takes place and results in the deformation of the crustal
mass. This energy accumulation gives birth to seismic events.

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More than a million earthquakes rattle the world each year. The contact zones
between adjacent plates are, therefore, considered as most vulnerable parts from the
seismic hazard point of view. Most of the earthquakes felt at Peshawar have their
origin in the Hindu Kush region of Afghanistan or Northern areas of Pakistan.

The information about earthquakes in this region is available in two forms i.e.
historically recorded and instrumentally recorded earthquakes. The instrumentally
recorded earthquake data is available only since 1904. Before this, the source of
earthquake information is through the historical records and published literature.

3.2 Historical Earthquake Data

A comprehensive historical earthquake catalogue is one of the main inputs and

considerations while carrying out Seismic Hazard Assessment (SHA) of a certain
region and other related seismic studies. In this study, considerable attention has been
paid to this very task of compilation the comprehensive historical seismic data
catalogue for Pakistan.

The catalogue had been compiled using different data sources while keeping the
historical catalogue prepared by National Engineering Services of Pakistan
(NESPAK) during 2006-7 for the Building Code of Pakistan as major source of data.

It was updated and refined by using different data sources. These data sources were
earlier compiled different catalogues, Bulletins, Journals, Research and Newspapers,
History books and other official different documents etc. The missing parameters in
the source catalogues have been identified. Equivalent Moment magnitudes were
evaluated using different empirical relationships. The parameters of catalogue include
Date, Location, Magnitude and description of major earthquakes.

The resulting historical catalogue presented in Appendix-A is the most comprehensive

and updated catalogue for Pakistan. From Appendix-A, it reflects that northern
Pakistan as a whole has remained a house of damaging earthquakes. Taxila (25 A.D.)
event is probably the most conspicuous one that changed style of building-
construction out- rightly in this region.

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3.3 Instrumental Earthquake Data

For the present phase of the study a composite list of seismic events that occurred in
the Project region and adjoining areas has been prepared. It is based upon earthquakes
reported by International Seismological Center (ISC), United States Geological
Survey (USGS), Micro Seismic Monitoring System (MSMS) of WAPDA at Tarbela,
Micro Seismic Observatory of WAPDA at Mangla, Micro Seismic Study Program of
PAEC and Pakistan Meteorological Department.

From this composite list, events bounded within an area between latitudes 32° to 36°
and longitudes 69° to 74° have been selected for the seismic studies of Peshawar BRT
Project. The area confined by those latitudes and longitudes is mentioned as Peshawar
Region in this report/studies. This composite earthquake catalogue for the Peshawar
Region is presented in Appendix-B.

This catalogue comprises 4020 events of different magnitudes. The above mentioned
reporting agencies have reported a variety of magnitudes viz. Body-wave magnitude
(mb), Surface-wave magnitude (MS), Richter/Local magnitude (ML) or Duration-
magnitude (MD) etc.

Since attenuation relationships are based on magnitude of given type, a single type
must be selected. For data to be used in seismic hazard analysis, all the magnitudes
were therefore converted to moment magnitude (MW) by the following equations.
Conversion from MS and mb to MW was achieved through latest equation suggested by
Scordilis (2006):

MW = 0.67 MS + 2.07 for 3.0< MS < 6.1 (1)

MW = 0.99 MS + 0.08 for 6.2< MS < 8.2 (2)
MW = 0.85 mb + 1.03 for 3.5< mb < 6.2 (3)

For ML up to 5.7, the value of M L was taken equal to MW as suggested by Idriss

(1985) and supported by operators of local networks in Pakistan. Conversion of ML to
MW beyond magnitude 5.7 was done by using the following equations suggested by
Ambraseys and Bommer (1990) and Ambraseys and Bilham (2003):

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0.82 (ML) – 0.58 (MS) = 1.20 (4)

Log Mo = 19.09 + MS for MS < 6.2 (5)
Log Mo = 15.94 + 1.5 MS for MS > 6.2 (6)
MW = (2/3) Log (Mo) – 10.73 (7)

Where mb is body–wave magnitude, MS is surface-wave magnitude, ML is local

magnitude, MW is moment magnitude and Mo is seismic moment. All available types
of magnitudes in the catalogue were converted into a uniform magnitude-scale i.e. MW
(Moment magnitude) and given in Appendix-B. MW represents area source rather than
a point source and the same type of magnitude is mostly being used in the seismic
hazard analysis.

3.4 Analysis of Earthquake Data

The root cause of most seismic events can be related to tectonic processes in the upper
portions of the earth crust. The earth crust is divided into several plates. Buildup of
strain/strain within these plates or margins are due to the deformations taking place as
results of movements along or relative to the interfaces or margins of the plates. The
Northern parts of Pakistan are near to the collisional boundaries of Eurasian and
Indian plates margins and therefore seismically very active. The seismicity of the
Peshawar Region observed during last hundred years and presented in Appendix-B is
plotted on Figure-6 through the help of GIS software.

This plot shows the presence of seismic activity in east, north and south of the Project
area which could be associated with faults present in this region. The cluster of
seismicity in the north of Peshawar is related to the active Hindukush Seismic Zone
(HSZ) and Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT). The cluster of seismicity east of
Peshawar is related to earthquake activity along the Indus Kohistan Seismic Zone.
This cluster of seismic events also includes the aftershocks of mega Kashmir Hazara
earthquake of October 08, 2005. In the south of the Project area, the seismic activity is
low to moderate.

However, within the Peshawar basin, observed seismicity is relatively low and do not
consist of higher magnitude events.

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This implies that the regional tectonic features in the Peshawar Region are seismically
active at moderate to high level due to stresses developed as a result of collision of the
tectonic plates.

Figure 6 Map showing seismicity recorded during last hundred years in the Project
region.

4. SEISMOTECTONIC MODEL

From the available tectonic and seismic data of the Project region presented above, a
preliminary understanding about the seismotectonic set up of the Project a
Seismotectonic Map was developed (Figure-7) through the help of GIS software.

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Based on this understanding and guidelines contained in the Building Code of

Pakistan (2007), the main seismogenic features which are located near the Project site
and may influence the seismic hazard of the Project are:

 Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) in the north,

 Panjal- Khairabad Fault and
 Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) on the south

Figure-7. Seismotectonic Map of the Project region showing seismicity and faults.

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Most of the located seismic events are aligned along the mapped seismotectonic
features present within the Peshawar Region (Figure-7). However, still many seismic
events may not be attributed to known faults.

The available seismic and tectonic data provides several evidences of the seismic
activity along all these faults and therefore seismicity associated with these faults is
considered for the evaluation of seismic hazard.
The concentration (clustering) of epicenters observed east-northeast of Peshawar may
be associated with the seismic activity along the Indus Kohistan Seismic Zone
(IKSZ). However, many of these events are the aftershocks of the mega Kashmir-
Hazara Mw 7.6 earthquake felt widely in the region on October 08, 2005.

5. SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS

The seismic hazard analysis refers to the estimation of some measure of the strong
earthquake ground motion expected to occur at a selected site. This is necessary for
the purpose of evolving earthquake resistant design of a new structure or for
estimating the safety of an existing structure of importance. The term “Seismic
Hazard” in engineering practice refer specifically to strong ground motions produced
by earthquakes that could affect engineered structures, such that seismic hazard
analysis often refers to the estimation of earthquake-induced ground motions having
specific probabilities over a given time period.

The study of strong earthquake ground motions and associated seismic hazard and
risk plays an important role for the sustainable development of societies in earthquake
prone areas. Using the hazard estimates produced by seismology, risk analysis yields
probabilistic estimates of the expected losses of property and lives from earthquakes
hazard estimation and vulnerabilities of structures, facilities, and people distributed
over the area.

5.1 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)

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Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been carried out for the seismic
studies of Peshawar Bus Rapid Transit Corridor Project, keeping in view the
guidelines contained in the Building Code of Pakistan, Seismic Provisions (2007).
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is conducted because there is a
perceived earthquake threat: active seismic sources in the region may produce a
moderate-to-large earthquake. The analysis considers a multitude of earthquake
occurrences and ground motions, and produces an integrated description of seismic
hazard representing all events. PSHA is denoted by the probability that ground motion
(acceleration) reaches certain amplitudes or seismic intensities exceeding a particular
value within a specified time interval. Inverse of the probability of exceedence is
known as the return period for that acceleration and is used to define the seismic
hazard.

In Probabilistic Hazard Evaluation, the seismic activity of seismic sources (line or

area) is specified by a recurrence relationship, defining the cumulative number of
events per year versus their magnitude. For design, analysis, retrofit, or other seismic
risk decisions a single "design earthquake" is often desired wherein the earthquake
threat is characterized by a single magnitude, distance, and perhaps other parameters.
This allows additional characteristics of the ground shaking to be modeled, such as
duration, non-stationarity of motion, and critical pulses. This study describes a
method wherein a design earthquake can be obtained that accurately represents the
uniform hazard spectrum from a PSHA.

There is a great deal of uncertainty about the location, size, and resulting shaking
intensity of future earthquakes. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) aims
to quantify these uncertainties, and combine them to produce an explicit description
of the distribution of future shaking that may occur at a site.

The primary advantage of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) over

alternative representations of the earthquake threat is that PSHA integrates over all
possible earthquake occurrences and ground motions to calculate a combined
probability of exceedance that incorporates the relative frequencies of occurrence of
different earthquakes and ground-motion characteristics.

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Modern PSHA also considers multiple hypotheses on input assumptions and thereby
reflects the relative credibility of competing scientific hypotheses. These features of
PSHA allow the ground-motion hazard to be expressed at multiple sites consistently
in terms of earthquake sizes, frequencies of occurrence, attenuation, and associated
ground motion. As a result, consistent decisions can be made to choose seismic design
or retrofit levels, to make insurance and demolition decisions, and to optimize
resources to reduce earthquake risk vis-a-vis other causes of loss.

5.1.1 PSHA Methodology

A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) combines seismic source

zoning, earthquake recurrence and the ground motion attenuation to produce “hazard
curves” in terms of level of ground motion and an associated annual frequency of
being exceeded. In Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), the seismic
activity of seismic source (line or area) is specified by a recurrence relationship,
defining the cumulative number of events per year versus the magnitude.
Distribution of earthquake is assumed to be uniform within the source zone and
independent of time.

The principle of the analysis, first developed by Cornell (1968) and later refined by
various researchers, is to evaluate at the site of interest the probability of exceedance
of a ground motion parameter (e.g. acceleration) due to the occurrence of a strong
event around the site. This approach combines the probability of exceedance of the
earthquake size (recurrence relationship), and probability on the distance from the
epicenter to the Project site.

Each seismic source zone is split into elementary zones at a certain distance from the
site. Integration is carried out within each zone by summing the effects of the various
elementary source zones taking into account the attenuation effect with distance.
Total hazard is finally obtained by adding the influence of various sources. The
results are expressed in terms of a ground motion parameter associated with return

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period (return period is the inverse of the annual frequency of exceedance of a given
level of ground motion).

Based on the guidelines of BOP (2007), the seismic hazard model used in the present
analysis was developed based on findings of the seismotectonic synthesis. The
seismic hazard model relies upon the concept of seismotectonic zones and does not
include linear or discrete fault sources. Each seismic source zone is defined as a zone
with homogenous seismic and tectonic features, inferred from geological, tectonic
and seismic data. These zones are first defined, and then a maximum earthquake and
an earthquake recurrence equation are elaborated for each zone.

The seismic parameters attached to the various seismic source zones are: a
recurrence relationship relating the number of events for a specific period of time to
the magnitude; the maximum earthquake giving an upper bound of potential
magnitude in the zone; and an attenuation relationship representing the decrease of
acceleration with distance.

The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) requires a detailed study of

distribution of observed seismic data to the seismic sources, determination of b-value
and activity rate of each seismic source and assigning maximum magnitude potential
to each source.

5.1.2 Source Modeling – Area Source Zones

For any seismic hazard assessment to be carried out, seismotectonic zonation is

considered to be an essential prerequisite. In order to establish the seismotectonic
zones a number of factors related to seismological characteristics, geology and
geophysics of the region of interest are taken into consideration. For the definition of
seismic sources, either line (i.e. fault) or area sources can be used for source
modeling. Because of uncertainty in the epicenters location, it is not possible to
relate the recorded earthquakes to the faults and to develop recurrence relationship
for each fault and use them as exponential model.

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According to Udias (1999), the characteristics of the occurrence of earthquakes in

relation to regional tectonics and general geodynamic conditions form part of
seismotectonic studies. This includes geographic distribution of epicenters,
magnitude, depth, focal mechanism solutions and their correspondence to various
types of faults, stress orientations and kinematic aspects of tectonics.

The Project region was therefore divided into seven area source zones (area sources)
based on their homogeneous tectonic and seismic characteristics, keeping in view the
geology, tectonics, seismicity and fault plane solutions of each area source zone.

These area seismic source zones of the Peshawar Region are shown in Figure-8.

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Figure-8. Seismic Source Zones (SSZ) used for PSHA.

Distribution of earthquakes is assumed to be uniform within the seismic source zone

and independent of time. Each of these area sources was assigned a maximum

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magnitude based on recorded seismicity and potential of the faults within the zone
and a minimum magnitude based on threshold magnitude observed in the magnitude-
frequency curve for the zone. As the shallow earthquakes are of more concern to
seismic hazard, the minimum depth of the earthquakes is taken as 5-10 km for all area
sources, except for Hindukush Seismic Zone (SSZ) for which it is taken as 70 km.
The seismic source zone parameters used in probabilistic hazard analysis are given in
Table-1.
Table - 1 Area Source Parameters for Probabilistic Analysis

No. of Minimum Activity Maximum

Zone Seismic Earthquakes Magnitude Rate b-Value Magnitude
No. Source Zone above Min. Mw /Year Mw
Magnitude

1 Hindukush 738 4.0 12.947 0.80 8.0

2 Kohistan 318 4.1 5.579 1.14 7.5

3 Eastern
Himalayas 190 4.2 3.333 1.03 8.0

Western
4 Himalayas 284 4.1 4.982 1.31 7.5

Salt Range-
5 Kohat-Potwar 181 4.2 3.175 1.26 6.5

6 Punjab Plain 31 4.1 0.544 1.29 6.5

7 Western
Transform 152 4.5 2.667 1.25 7.0
Boundary

5.1.3 Earthquake Recurrence Model

A general equation that describes earthquake recurrence may be expressed as follows:

N (m) = f (m, t) (8)

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Where N (m) is the number of earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than m,
and t is time period.

The simplest form of equation (8) that has been used in most engineering applications
is the well-known Richter’s law which states that the cumulated number of
earthquakes occurred in a given period of time can be approximated by the
relationship:

Log N (m) = a–bm (9)

Equation (9) assumes spatial and temporal independence of all earthquakes, i.e. it has
the properties of a Poisson model. Coefficients ‘a’ and ‘b’ can be derived from seismic
data related to the source of interest. Coefficient ‘a’ is related to the total number of
events occurred in the source zone and depends on its area, while coefficient ‘b’
represents the coefficient of proportionality between log N (m) and the magnitude.

The composite catalogue of earthquakes prepared for the BRT Project Region
(Appendix-B) provided the necessary database for the computation of b-value for
each area source zone. The composite earthquake list contains limited number of
earthquakes prior to 1960 and only few of these earthquakes have been assigned
magnitude values. Due to installation of WWSSN, the earthquake recording in this
region improved and a better and complete recording of earthquake data are available
after 1961. A basic assumption of seismic hazard methodology is that earthquake
sources are independent. Thus, catalogues that are used to estimate future seismic
activity must be free of dependent events such as foreshocks and aftershocks. To the
extent possible such events were also eliminated, as there are insufficient data to
apply rigorous procedures such as that of Gardner and Knopoff (1974) to eliminate
foreshocks and aftershocks from the composite catalogue.

The completeness analysis of the overall data for the region showed that earthquake
data up to about magnitude 4.0 is complete after 1960. The converted moment
magnitude for the period between 1961 and 2016 was therefore used in the PSHA
after excluding the aftershocks.

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A separate list of earthquakes occurring in each seismic area source zone was
prepared through GIS software and magnitude-frequency curves were made for each
seismic area source. The b-value for each seismic area source zone was calculated
using linear regression through least square method. The minimum magnitude for
each area source zone was selected from the magnitude-frequency curve based on
completeness checks suggested by Woeffner and Weimer (2005).

The b–values, minimum magnitude and the activity rates for the seven area source
zones used in the probabilistic analysis have been presented in Table-1.

5.1.4 Maximum Magnitude

To each area source zone, a maximum magnitude potential was assigned based on the
maximum observed seismicity in the historical seismic record and enhancing by 0.5
magnitude the maximum observed magnitude in the seismic record for that area
seismic source zone or determining the maximum magnitude of the longest active
fault in the area using Well & Coppersmith equation (1994).

The maximum potential magnitude selected for each seismic area source zone is also
given in Table-1.

5.1.5 Attenuation Relationships

The strong-motion attenuation relationship depicts the propagation and modification

of strong ground motion as a function of earthquake size (magnitude) and the distance
between the source and the site of interest. Because of lack of sufficient strong–
motion data covering a larger range of magnitudes and distances, attenuation
relationships for the South Asian Region cannot be developed.

A number of attenuation equations have been developed from strong motion data
collected in other parts of the world. As shallow earthquakes are of more concern for
hazard analysis of the Project site, attenuation equations developed for shallow
tectonic environment were considered for use in the hazard analysis.

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For Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), of BRT Peshawar Project the
latest available NGA equations developed under Pacific Earthquake Engineering
Research (PEER) Centre by Abrahamson & Silva (2008), Boore & Atkinson (2008),
and Campbell & Bozorgnia (2008) were used as these equations are valid for
tectonically active regions of shallow crustal faulting worldwide. All the equations
were given equal weightage.

5.1.6 Site Foundation Condition

The boreholes drilled for geotechnical investigations along the BRT Peshawar route
have shown that alluvial deposits are present up to 30 meters depth. For the Project
area, shear wave velocity data is not available. However, Standard Penetration Testing
(SPT) data is available for 48 boreholes drilled for geotechnical investigations along
the route of BRT. From the analysis of SPT data it is inferred that soil profiles types
SC, SD and SE are present along the BRT route. The PSHA was therefore carried out
for the three different foundation conditions (1) V s30=400 m/sec (SC type soil), (2)
Vs30=300 m/sec (SD type soil) and (3) Vs30=175 m/sec (SE type soil).

5.1.7 Results of PSHA

The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) was carried out using single site
EZ-FRISK software developed by Fugro Engineering Consultants, USA. The
program calculates the earthquake hazard at a site under certain assumptions specified
by the user. These assumptions involve identifying where earthquakes will occur,
what their characteristics will be, and what will be the ground motions generated.
These capabilities allow a wide range of seismic hazard problems to be solved, with
straightforward specification of input. Its easily allows in identifying the critical
inputs and decisions affecting seismic hazard evaluations.

All the parameters defined in Table-1 were incorporated in the area seismic source
models.

As described above in Section (5.1.6) three mean total hazard curves were obtained
by giving equal weighting to all the attenuation equations used. The total mean hazard

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curves obtained for the Project are shown in Figures-9, 10 and 11. Hazard curves for
each of the three attenuation equations used for PSHA are also presented in Figures 9,
10 and 11.

These curves shows the annual frequency of exceedance (inverse of return period) of
the peak ground acceleration expected at the Project area.

Figure-9. Seismic Hazard Curve obtained from PSHA for SC soil sites.
(Vs 30 is taken as 400 m/sec)

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Figure-10. Seismic Hazard Curve obtained from PSHA (for SD soil sites).
(Vs 30 is taken as 300 m/sec)

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Figure-11. Seismic Hazard Curve obtained from PSHA (for SE soil sites).
(Vs 30 is taken as 175 m/sec)

The peak horizontal ground accelerations for different return periods (inverse of the
annual frequency of exceedance) obtained for the Project area are also summarized in
Tables – 2, 3 and 4.

Table -2. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for different return periods
Obtained through Probabilistic Analysis. (Vs 30 is taken as 400 m/sec).

Return Period (Years) PGA (g)

475 0.28
975 0.34
2,500 0.43

Table -3 Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for different return periods

Obtained through Probabilistic Analysis. (Vs 30 is taken as 300 m/sec).

Return Period (Years) PGA (g)

475 0.30
975 0.36
2,500 0.46
Table -4 Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for different return periods
Obtained through Probabilistic Analysis. (Vs 30 is taken as 175 m/sec).

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Return Period (Years) PGA (g)

475 0.34
975 0.40
2,500 0.50

6. SEISMIC DESIGN PARAMETERS

6.1 Peak Ground Accelerations

As per Building Code of Pakistan Seismic Provisions (2007), ground motion having
10% probability of exceedance in 50-year period (i.e. a return period of about 475
years) is required to be used for design of buildings.

The total hazard curves (Figures – 9, 10 and 11) obtained from probabilistic seismic
hazard analysis gives a horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) of 0.28g for 10%
Probability of Exceedance in 50 years (i.e. a return period of 475 years) for S C soil
foundation condition, a horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) of 0.30g for 10%
Probability of Exceedance in 50 years (i.e. a return period of 475 years) for S D soil
foundation condition and a horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) of 0.34g for
10% Probability of Exceedance in 50 years (i.e. a return period of 475 years) for S E
soil foundation condition

Therefore, the Project Structures should be designed for peak horizontal ground
acceleration of 0.28g for SC site foundation characteristics (with Vs30 of 400 m/sec),
for peak horizontal ground acceleration of 0.30g for SD site foundation characteristics
(with Vs30 of 300 m/sec) and for peak horizontal ground acceleration of 0.34g for S E
soil foundation characteristics (with Vs30 of 175 m/sec).

Since the main local tectonic features are away from the Project area (para 4),
therefore all the peak vertical ground accelerations will be taken as 2/3 of the all the
peak horizontal accelerations.

6.2 Response Spectra

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The uniform hazard response spectra for earthquakes of different return periods are
shown in Figures-12, 13 and 14 for SC, SD and SE soil condition respectively.

Figure-12. Uniform Hazard Response Spectra Obtained from PSHA for S C soil
sites (Vs 30 is taken as 400 m/sec).

Figure-13. Uniform Hazard Response Spectra Obtained from PSHA for S D soil
sites (Vs 30 is taken as 300 m/sec).

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Figure-14. Uniform Hazard Response Spectra Obtained from PSHA for S E soil
sites (Vs 30 is taken as 175 m/sec).

8. CONCLUSIONS

The seismic hazard studies for BRT Peshawar Project was carried out through a study
of all the available geological, tectonic and seismicity data of the region in which the
Project is located.

The recorded seismicity of the Project region is depicted mainly by small to large
earthquake activity. The main tectonic features contributing the seismic potential are
the Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) in the north, Panjal-Khairabad Fault and Main
Boundary Thrust Fault (MBT) on the south.

The historical earthquake data shows that a few damaging earthquakes have occurred
within 200 km radius from the Project area. The prominent recent one is the October
08, 2005 Kashmir-Hazara earthquake with magnitude Mw=7.6.

The total hazard curves (Figures – 9, 10 and 11) obtained from probabilistic seismic
hazard analysis gives a horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) of 0.28g for 10%

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Probability of Exceedance in 50 years (i.e. a return period of 475 years) for S C soil
foundation condition, a horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) of 0.30g for 10%
Probability of Exceedance in 50 years (i.e. a return period of 475 years) for S D soil
foundation condition and a horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) of 0.34g for
10% Probability of Exceedance in 50 years (i.e. a return period of 475 years) for S E
soil foundation condition.

Therefore, the Project Structures should be designed for peak horizontal ground
acceleration values given above in accordance with the soil foundation condition
encountered at a particular location according to SPT values of subsurface material up
to 30 meters depth.

These seismic design parameters are recommended to be used for the seismic resistant
design of the Project Structures in accordance with the foundation soil type as given
in Table 4.1 of Pakistan Building Code Seismic provisions (2007).

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