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Electrical Engineering in Japan, Vol. 153, No.

3, 2005
Translated from Denki Gakkai Ronbunshi, Vol. 124-B, No. 7, July 2004, pp. 937–946

Method to Estimate Long-Term Change of Heat and Electric Power Daily Load
Curves in Japan

TAKUYA ODA, ATSUSHI AKISAWA, and TAKAO KASHIWAGI


Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Japan

SUMMARY distributed generating systems. To make the installation of


CHP successful, it is essential to fully utilize waste heat
The rapid spread of CHP systems will put pressure from prime movers. The energy saving effect of CHP is
on the regional power system to require an examination of maximized when the heat-to-power ratios of the demand
the power and heat output of CHP systems. When consid- side and the system are balanced. Therefore, the annual
ering the countrywide potential of the CHP system, one trends of heat and power demands need to be understood
should examine such a system in coordination with the grid for the pervasion of CHP into society.
power system. It is essential to calculate the heat and power The spread of distributed generating systems affects
demand at end-use level. In this paper, annual heat and the grid power system from two paths. First, since part of
power demands of end-use sectors are forecast to the year the power demand is allocated to distributed generating
2025 based on 20-year data. Regression analysis is used. systems, the capacity of the grid power system can be
Estimated annual demands are divided into the seasonal contracted. Second, heat-driven air-conditioning systems
hourly demands considering demand characteristics. Daily effectively reduce the peak power demand, which strongly
load curves of heat and power demands are determined for influences the capacity of the grid power system. It is
the Japanese end-use sectors, and the annual changes of expected that the waste heat utilization for air-conditioning
such demands are shown by duration curves of heat-to- would increase in response to the promotion of CHP in
power ratios. Moreover, the grid power daily load curves residential and commercial use.
are computed numerically from the estimated heat and To study the coexistence of the grid power system and
power demands for the manufacturing, residential, and distributed generating systems, it is necessary to obtain
commercial sectors. Such load curves also consider self- information that satisfies the following requirements:
generated power for the manufacturing industry and self-
consumption of the grid power. Estimating heat and power 1. A model to describe mid/long-term grid power
demands allows for a joint analysis between the power composition
system and the future phasing in of CHP systems. © 2005 2. Daily load curves of heat and power demands to
Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electr Eng Jpn, 153(3): 18–30, examine the effect of cogeneration
2005; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www. 3. Demand data by end-use
interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/eej.20162
Most of the precedent researches on mid/long-term
demand forecasting dealt with the amount of electric power
Key words: daily load curves; long-term forecast- and the peak demand [3, 4]. Daily load curves were not
ing; electric power demand; heat demand; CHP. predicted except for short-term demand forecasting, for
example, demand curve of the next day. Kiyomoto and
colleagues [6] estimated power demand curve of house-
1. Introduction holds taking into consideration the lifestyle and electrical
equipment. Akisawa and colleagues [5] predicted the an-
Distributed generating systems are considered as one nual variation of energy load patterns in the residential and
of the promising measures to establish sustainable society commercial sectors by regression analysis. They were not
[1, 2]. Cogeneration, or CHP (Combined Heat and Power), sufficient, however, to examine the composition of the grid
is an important concept contributing to energy savings with power system.

© 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.


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The purpose of the study is the prediction of daily Table 1. Classification of demands into users and
load curves of heat and power demands in the mid/long end-use
term. In addition, a daily load curve of the grid power
supply is estimated from the demand side daily load curves.
The validity of the method is verified by comparing the
results with the forecasts of other research institutes. Fi-
nally, the heat and power load characteristics by users and
by end-use can be predicted in the mid/long term to show
the relation between distributed generating systems and the
grid power system.

2. Summary of the Daily Load Curve Prediction

There are two techniques of estimating daily load


curves of heat and power demands. One is the addition of
individual demands by end-use, and the other is the division
of the total demand into users and into end-use categories.
In the study, the daily load curves were estimated by the
latter method because the insufficiency of data by end-use
did not permit the use of the former method. The annual
demands were predicted by regression analysis, and then
were decomposed into hourly values. The daily load curve
of the grid power system was derived from the daily load load curve of the grid power system was estimated from the
curves of the demands by taking into account the particu- demand side daily load curves by taking into account the
larity of each demand. Consequently, the daily load curves
heating supply by electric equipment, the self-power gen-
of heat and power in the mid/long term could be forecasted
eration in the manufacturing sector, and the self-power
from both the demand side and the grid power system.
consumption by the grid power system.
Thus, the daily load curve of the grid power system
2.1 Demand classification was obtained by the combination of the heat and power
The prediction of energy demand was mainly focused
on four users from the manufacturing sector, five users from
the commercial sector, and households, which belongs to
the residential sector, as given in Table 1. The energy
demands were categorized as power, cooling, heating, and
hot water supply in the residential and commercial sectors,
and as power and steam in the manufacturing sector.
Four additional users were included to classify the
other power demand for the evaluation of the grid power
system composition, which were power consumption of
power plants on standby, pumping power for pumped stor-
age hydroelectric power plants, transmission and transfor-
mation losses, and residuals.

2.2 Forecasting process

Figure 1 shows a flowchart of the forecasting process


of daily load curves. First, the annual energy consumption
by end-use was acquired from energy statistics. The future
annual demands could be predicted by regression analysis
of the statistics. Then, the annual demands were decom-
posed into daily load curves by users and by end-use using
load patterns of existing investigations. Lastly, the daily Fig. 1. Forecasting flow of demand and load curves.

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demands. The method enabled an indirect evaluation of the
validity of a daily heat load curve by comparing the pre-
dicted values of the grid power system with the actual
values.

2.3 The period and the time interval

The forecasting was performed up to the year 2025,


based on the regression equation using the demand data for
every 5 years from 1980 to 2000. The daily load curves
consisted of the hourly values of demands in three seasons, Fig. 3. Estimates and forecasting results of annual
which were the summer season (July and August; 62 days), heating, cooling, and hot water supply load.
the winter season (January, February, and March; 90 or 91
days), and the medium season (April, May, June, Septem-
ber, October, November, and December; 213 days).
residential and commercial sectors, which included the heat
3. The Regression Analysis on the Annual Energy supplied by electric equipment, were obtained from the
Consumption estimation given in Ref. 9. The demand by each user in the
commercial sector was estimated from the total energy
3.1 The modeling of the annual energy consumption in the whole commercial sector because the
consumption data by users were not available.
The residuals represent the balance between the sum
Equation (1) gives the regression model for the an- of the demands considered in the study and the statistic of
nual energy consumption. The dependent variable, YD, was the grid power generation [16]. That included the power
a set of the energy consumption data by users shown in consumption for heat supply and the consumption by the
Table 1 for the year 1980 through the year 2000, which were users excluded from Table 1. The power consumption for
obtained from references. Two explanatory variables, X1 heat supply was estimated by COPs of equipment, which
and X2, were used for the analysis: will be described later in detail.
The demand data from the year 1980 to the year 2000
given in Figs. 2 through 4 were generated from the statistics
and the references described above.
(1)

where α and β denote the partial regression coefficients. 3.3 The explanatory variables

3.2 The statistical data used for the analysis Figure 5 shows the flow of the annual demand fore-
casting. The regression model used economic indices, pro-
The power and steam consumption by users in the duction, population, climate, and so on as the explanatory
manufacturing sector was taken from statistics [7]. The variables. One or two explanatory variables were allocated
power, cooling, heating, and hot water demands in the to the demand by each user as given in Table 2.

Fig. 2. Estimates, actual, and forecasting results of Fig. 4. Actual and forecasting results of yearly steam
annual electric power load. load.

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commercial use [9]. GDP and the private final consumption
expenditure [9] were used for the cement industry and the
other manufacturers, respectively. The population, the
number of households, wages per worker, the total floor
area of buildings in commercial use, heating and cooling
degree days, and kerosene wholesale price [9] were the
explanatory variables of the residential and commercial
sectors.

3.4 The results of the regression analysis and


the test

Table 2 gives the partial regression coefficients of


each regression model as well as the t-values and the
adjusted coefficients of determination (adjusted-R2). Most
of the models would be appropriate because the adjusted-R2
values were more than 0.8 in spite of the relatively small
number of dependent variable data. In addition, the signifi-
cance of the multiple regression model was confirmed by
Fig. 5. Schematic flow of annual energy demands the F-statistic test at the 5% level of significance except the
forecasting. models for the heating demand in the commercial sector
and the steam demands in the chemical, iron, and other
manufacturers. The commercial sector included different
users such as offices and stores, which resulted in the low
significance of the model and the low adjusted-R2. In the
Figure 6 shows the values given in the regression latter case, the reason for the low significance would be the
analysis up to the year 2000. Pulp & paper and chemical complexity of the manufacturing process that was impossi-
manufacturers used the production [9] as the explanatory ble to represent by a simple model.
variable. Iron manufacturers used the normal steel material The results of the regression analysis showed that the
production [18] and the total floor area of the buildings in energy consumption in the manufacturing sector was in

Table 2. Explanatory variables, adjusted-R2 estimated parameters of regression analysis for annual energy consumption

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Table 3. Sources of simulation assumptions

predicted by regression models using 27 data from 1975 to


2001. The regression model to obtain the explanatory vari-
ables is as follows:
(2)

where X1 and X2 are explanatory variables of the regression


model with α and β as the partial regression coefficients.
Two items were added to the explanatory variables
other than the items given in Fig. 6 and Table 3. The paper
and sheet paper production was kept at the maximum record
because the consumption of both has been saturated in
recent years. The ethylene production was estimated by the
Fig. 6. Actual and estimates of explanatory parameters
ratio of the ethylene consumption to the private final con-
for regression analysis.
sumption expenditure that was annually increased at a
constant rate of 0.03%.
Table 4 summarizes the results of the regression
response to the production, while that in the residential and
analysis. The adjusted-R2 was more than 0.98 except for the
commercial sectors was not directly related to the popula-
kerosene wholesale price (adjusted-R2 of 0.83). It could be
tion and the number of households. The wages per worker
concluded that the regression model was validated.
and the floor area of commercial buildings were chosen as Figures 2 through 4 show the annual energy demand
the explanatory variables, which implied that it would be forecasting after the year 2005. Each user would have a
necessary for the residential and commercial sectors to different trend of energy demand. In particular, the rise in
reform the structure of the social system to achieve substan- the commercial sector would be notably high.
tial energy savings.
3.6 The annual demand data by users
3.5 The forecasting of the annual energy
demand The annual energy consumption by users in the com-
mercial sector was estimated from the annual energy con-
The future energy demand was forecasted by the sumption in the whole commercial sector. The energy
regression model based on the values of the explanatory consumption of user i was assumed from the energy con-
variables after the year 2005 shown in Fig. 6. Table 3 also sumption per unit floor area by each user [13], qi, the total
gives the explanatory variables with the t-values. floor area of user i [9], Fi,y, and the annual energy consump-
For the future GDP, population, the number of house- tion of the whole commercial sector, Qy, by the following
holds, and the price of crude oil, the values in business as equation:
usual cases were taken from references. The floor area of
commercial buildings was determined in response to the
(3)
GDP. The averages in the past 20 years were used for the
future heating and cooling degree days [9]. The normal steel
material production was decreased annually by 0.4% [17]. where Qi,y denotes the annual total energy consumption of
The private final consumption expenditure, the paper user i. A prediction of the total floor area after the year 2005
and sheet paper production, the ethylene production, the was adopted from a data source [12], which is listed in Table
wages per worker, and the kerosene wholesale price were 3.

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Table 4. Results of regression analysis; explanatory variables, adjusted R2, and estimated parameters

4. Daily Load Curves of the Demands consumption and the steam demand. The hourly pattern of
the steam demand is the same in all seasons although the
value itself was varied in each season by multiplying the
4.1 A model for the computation of daily load
value by a coefficient.
curves
The hourly and seasonal load patterns of the other
Figure 7 shows the calculation flow for hourly energy manufacturers and the iron manufacturers were not avail-
demand. The annual energy demand is decomposed by able. Therefore, the average of the entire industry, which
season, by days, and by hours. The hourly demand can be was generated from Ref. 8, was used.
expressed as In the residential and commercial sectors including
households, the hourly pattern of the consumption ratio of
the power demand was unchanged throughout the year [13].
(4) It was assumed that the cooling demand occurred only in
the summer season, and the heating demand occurred only
where Q denotes demand and D denotes the number of in the winter season. The hourly pattern of the hot water
days. γ and δ are the consumption ratio by season and the supply was varied in each season [13].
consumption ratio by hour, respectively. The annual total of The residuals include mining, railway, street lights,
γ and the daily total of δ is equal to one. Subscripts i, s, and agriculture, and construction. It was impossible to deter-
t refer to user, season, and hour, respectively. mine the hourly patterns of the power demands by these
users because the sum of them accounted for only 50% of
the annual total power demand by the residuals [16]. There-
4.2 Parameters of the daily load curve
fore, those power demands were averagely distributed
computation among the night and early morning hours between 19:00
and 8:00.
The parameters for computing hourly energy demand The hourly load curve of the grid power system’s
are given in Table 5. The hourly pattern of the electricity consumption will be discussed in the next section.
demand in the manufacturing sector is the same throughout
all seasons.
The hourly pattern of the steam demand was replaced
by the hourly fuel consumption ratio [8]. It was confirmed Table 5. Parameters for computing hourly energy
that a good correlation was obtained between the fuel demand

Fig. 7. Calculation flow of hourly energy demand.

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4.3 Examples of the daily load curve

Figure 8 shows examples of daily electricity demand


curves by users. The electricity demand excluded the elec-
tricity consumption for air-conditioning and hot water sup-
ply.

4.4 Daily heat load curve in the residential


and commercial sectors

One of the purposes of the research was to obtain


daily heat load curve in the residential and commercial
sectors. Figure 9 shows daily load curves of heating, cool-
ing, and hot water demands, which were obtained by the
summation of the demands by users.
The heat is usually supplied on site because the
transmission of heat results in a large heat loss. It was,
therefore, difficult to obtain daily heat load curves on a
macro scale. The results illustrated daily heat load curves
in the residential and commercial sectors in Japan, which
were obtained from limited data and a simple model.
It was shown that the yearly variations of the heat load
patterns in the residential and commercial sectors were
different in each season. The peaks of the demands in the
winter and in the medium seasons appeared around the year Fig. 9. Changes of hourly total heat demand curves of
2010. On the other hand, the demand in the summer season commercial and residential sector.
kept slightly increasing after the year 2020. The results
implied that the different trends in the yearly variations of
heat demands would affect the operation of cogeneration
systems. season although the absolute values of the demand were
different. When the demand in the medium season was
4.5 Daily load curve of steam demand in the represented as 100, the demand in each hour was 92 in the
manufacturing sector summer season and 107 in the winter season. The difference
between the seasons was small. There was no drastic in-
Figure 10 shows the yearly variation of the steam crease in the steam demand after the year 2010.
demand in the manufacturing sector in the medium season. It should be noted that the adjusted-R2 of the other
The trend in the yearly variation was unchanged in each manufacturers in Table 2 was 0.16, and those of the others

Fig. 8. Hourly power demands of commercial and Fig. 10. Changes of hourly total steam demand curves
residential sector (F.Y.2000). of industrial sector (for reference).

24
were between 0.66 and 0.74. It was difficult to predict the where COP is the coefficient of performance of equipment
yearly variation of the steam demand accurately. to supply heat. µ denotes the ratio of the heat supplied by
electric equipment to the total heat demand. The subscript
5. Daily Load Curve of the Grid Power C&R denotes the residential and commercial sectors.

The daily load curve of the grid power system was (C) The power consumption of power plants on
generated from the daily load curves of the demands ob- standby
tained in the previous section. The power consumption of power plants that are on
standby can be computed by Eqs. (10) and (11):
5.1 The model of the daily load curve of the
grid power
(10)
The daily load curve of the grid power was modeled
by Eqs. (5) through (13). First, the hourly load of the grid (11)
power was determined as follows:
where ε is the availability factor of the plant excluding base
load hours. D is the number of days.
(5)
(D) The pumping power of the pumped storage
where P denotes the total power demand to the grid and E hydroelectric power plant
denotes each type of the power demand. Subscripts y, s, t,
and i represent year, season, time, and user, respectively. Equation (12) calculates the electricity consumption
The power demand and the heat demand supplied by elec- for pumping of the pumped storage hydroelectric power
tric equipment are denoted by the subscripts e and h, plants:
respectively. Stp, Hyd, and Lss represent power for standby,
hydro pumping, and transmission and transformation
losses, respectively. (12)
The terms on the right-hand side of Eq. (5) were
obtained by using the following equations. The first term
(E) The transmission and transformation losses
refers to the sum of the power demand by users, which was
composed of power demands by the manufacturing sector The transmission and transformation losses are cal-
and by the residential and commercial sectors. culated by Eq. (13):

(A) The grid power demand in the manufacturing


sector (13)

Equations (6) and (7) give the power demands, which


are supplied by the grid power, in the manufacturing sector: (A) The power demand in the manufacturing sector
includes self-power generation by users. Figure 11 shows
(6)
(7)
where λ denotes the ratio of the self-power generation to
total power demand. The subscript Mnf represents the
manufacturing sector.

(B) The grid power demand in the residential and


commercial sectors
Equations (8) and (9) give the power demands sup-
plied by the grid to the residential and commercial sectors:

(8)

(9) Fig. 11. Ratio of self-generated electric power in power


demands of manufacturing users.

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the ratio of self-power generation to the total power demand
[7]. The hourly values of the self-power generation were
estimated by multiplying the ratio and the power demand.
The ratio of self-power generation to the total power
demand after the year 2005 was assumed by taking into
consideration the pervasion of self-power generation in the
manufacturing sector. The ratios for the pulp & paper,
chemical, iron, and cement manufacturers were kept at the
present levels, while that of the other manufacturers was
linearly increased at the same rate as for recent years.
(B) The installed capacity of cogeneration systems in
Fig. 13. COP of electrical heat supply devices in
the residential and commercial sectors was far smaller than
commercial and residential sector.
the capacity of the grid power. Therefore, it was assumed
that all of the power demand was supplied by the grid
power, as given in Eq. (8). The power consumption of
[16]. The availability factor, ε, was estimated by assuming
devices to supply heat, such as air-conditioner and electric
that all of the power plants were in operation at the peak
water heater, were accounted by Eq. (9). The ratio of the
demand in the summer season. The hourly demand was
heat supply by electric equipment to the total heat demand
computed by Eq. (10). It was assumed that the power for
was obtained from Ref. 9, which is given in Fig. 12. The
standby would account for 4% after the year 2005.
ratios after the year 2005 were estimated by linear extrapo-
(D) The pumping power of the pumped storage hy-
lation.
Figure 13 shows the average coefficient of perform- droelectric power plant accounts for about 1.6% of the total
ance (COP) of electric equipment for heat supply taking power demand [16]. It was assumed that the pumping
into account the pervasion of the equipment. The cooling power was required equally between 1:00 and 8:00. The
COP of home air-conditioners was estimated to be 2.53 (in value in the year 2000 was used as the values after the year
the year 1990) in Ref. 15. The cooling COP used in the 2005 in consideration of the domestic water resources.
study was about 75% of that in the reference, which took (E) The transmission and transformation losses
into account the deterioration due to part load operation. amount to more than 5% of the total power demand [16].
The cooling COP of commercial-use air-conditioners was The losses were distributed to each hour in proportion to
estimated by a comparison with home air-conditioners. The the power consumption. The losses after the year 2005 were
heating COPs were assumed to be 1.0 for both the residen- estimated by a linear regression analysis of the past values.
tial and commercial sectors. The COP of electric water The losses in the year 2025 were predicted to be 4.7% of
heaters was assumed to be 0.8 because water heater was in the power consumption.
operation at night and stored hot water. The COP took into
account the heat loss from the hot water tank. Besides Eqs. 5.2 The forecasted annual power consumption
(8) and (9), it was assumed that the water heater produced
hot water evenly from 1:00 to 7:00. Figure 14 shows the forecasted annual power con-
(C) The electricity consumption of power plants on sumption compared with two other forecasts. CRIEPI [4]
standby amounts to about 4% of the total electricity demand

Fig. 12. Ratio of electrical heat supply in heat demands Fig. 14. Forecasted yearly grid power supply (with
of commercial and residential. CRIEPI and IEEJ estimated).

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forecasted the annual energy demand based on the transi-
tion of the population. IEEJ [3] used a macro economic
model for the forecast.
The explanatory variables, such as GDP growth rate,
population, and floor area, of our model corresponded to a
middle case of the forecasts by CRIEPI and IEEJ. The result
of our forecast was close to the low case of CRIEPI and the
base case of IEEJ. It was confirmed that the result did not
contradict the forecasts of existing researches on power
demand.

Fig. 15. Example results: comparing the actual grid


5.3 Reproducibility of daily load curves power generation data and the estimated loads at summer
in F.Y.1995.
The daily load curve produced by the model was
compared with the actual grid power data using summer
data in the year 1995. Figure 15 shows the forecasted and
the actual daily load curves of the power demand.* The
daily load curve of heat demand with the actual values by
coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.98. Figure 16 shows
comparing the predicted and actual daily load curves of the
the comparison in other years. The coefficient of determi-
grid power, which could be hardly practiced in direct meas-
nation was more than 0.8 for all of the cases, which vali-
ures.
dated the accuracy of the model.
A better correlation was obtained in the summer
season compared with those in the other seasons because 6. The Variation of Duration Curves of Heat to
the cooling supply would strongly depend on electric Power Ratio
equipment. In the winter season, the correlation was worst
among three seasons because the heating was less depend- It was shown in the previous sections that the yearly
ent on electric equipment. The correlation in the medium variations of daily load curves differed between heat and
season was better than that in the winter season because the power demands. It would affect the operation of CHP
influence of air-conditioning was small. because CHP could utilize all heat output only if the de-
The results confirmed that the average COP of air- mand-side heat-to-power ratio was larger than the ratio of
conditioning equipment used in the model, which is given output from the cogeneration plant. The duration curve of
in Fig. 13, was appropriate. the demand-side heat-to-power ratio (H/E) in the winter
season is depicted in Fig. 18.
Figure 18 presents the variation of the heat-to-power
5.4 The daily load curve of the grid power ratio for every 20 years from the year 1980. It is seen that
the heat-to-power ratio keeps decreasing although the dimi-
Figure 17 shows the forecasted daily load curve of
nution during the next two decades would be smaller than
the grid power by the model. It should be noted that Fig. 17
that during the last two decades.
illustrates a prediction of daily load curves for the case of
It was also found that the effect of the decrease in the
maintaining the current energy systems in the future. It is
demand-side heat-to-power ratio on fuel cells would not be
possible that the forecast will be revised due to the improve-
significant because the heat-to-power output ratio of fuel
ment of COP of home air-conditioners and heat pumps, and
cells is relatively low (H/E u 1.0).
the spread of cogeneration systems including fuel cells. The
variation of the air-conditioning space would also influence
daily load curves.
There is a correspondence between the heat demand
presented in Section 4 (Fig. 9) and the daily load curve of
the grid power, which was obtained in this section, because
they were derived from a single model of heat and power
demands. Therefore, the model indirectly compared the

*
The hourly average of the actual data in three seasons was used. The
winter data in 1990, 1995, and 2000 were generated by regression analysis
using actual power generation results from 1975 to 1995 and cooling and Fig. 16. Correlation (R2) of grid supply actual data and
heating degree days because of the lack of data. estimated loads.

27
Fig. 17. Estimated hourly grid power supply curves.

On the other hand, other CHP that have a high heat- demand to power demand for the years 2000 and 2020. It
to-power output ratio would result in a lower heat utilization was confirmed that the duration curve in 2020 was similar
rate. The waste heat temperature of those CHP equipment, to that in 2000. The result implied that cooling supply by
such as gas turbines and gas engines, is high. It is, therefore, heat-driven chillers would be more significant for CHP in
possible to operate absorption chillers with CHP. The the residential and commercial sectors.
authors obtained the duration curves of the ratio of cooling

7. Conclusions

The study predicted the daily load curves of heat and


power demands in order to analyze the coexistence of grid
power system and distributed generating systems. A regres-
sion model and hourly load patterns of demands were used
for the computation of daily load curves.
A part of the regression analysis was not verified by
the tests. Therefore, the sensitivity of the heating demand
in the commercial sector to the results shown in Figs. 9, 17,
and 18 was examined by recalculation with the increase rate
of the heating demand by 1%, which corresponded to the
increase rate in the 1990s. As a result, no significant differ-
ence was observed with the fluctuation of the heating
demand in the commercial sector.
The findings are summarized as follows.

1. A method to compute daily load curves of heat and


power demands simultaneously was proposed. The forecast
of the grid power demand was in good agreement with a
past actual value. It was confirmed that the method was
useful in obtaining daily load curves for a period of a few
decades.
2. The daily heat load curves in the residential and
commercial sectors in Japan were obtained for each season.
Unlike past research, we were able to clarify the case of the
whole image of heat demand. In the model, the heat load
curve was indirectly verified by the comparison between
the results of the model and the actual values of the grid
Fig. 18. Estimated heat-to-power ratio. power.

28
3. The daily load curves of the heat and power de- into account the lifestyle and IT facilities. Proc 21st
mands showed different yearly variations, which suggested Annual Meeting of Japan Society of Energy and
that the heat-to-power ratio also had a yearly variation. Resources, p 67–72, 2002. (in Japanese)
4. The demand-side heat-to-power ratio was pre- 7. Research and Statistics Department Ministry’s Sec-
sented as the duration curve because it would have a strong retariat MITI. The structural survey of energy con-
influence on the operation of CHP. It was shown that the sumption in commerce and manufacturing. (1980,
demand-side heat-to-power ratio tended to decrease. 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000). (in Japanese)
8. HPTCJ. Research and development of a super heat
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users regarding the demands were assumed to be un- of Energy Economics, Japan. Handbook of energy &
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1999. (in Japanese)
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AUTHORS (from left to right)

Takuya Oda (nonmember) joined Hitachi Zosen Corp. after completing his master’s course at Kyushu University in 1997.
He enrolled in a doctoral course at the Graduate School of Bio-Applications and Systems Engineering, Tokyo University of
Agriculture and Technology, in 2001, and obtained a doctoral degree in 2004.

Atsushi Akisawa (member) finished a master’s course in the Department of Electrical Engineering at the University of
Tokyo in 1987. While working for Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc., he completed a doctoral course at the same university as
his master’s course. As a lecturer (1995–1996) and as an associate professor (1996–) at Tokyo University of Agriculture and
Technology, he has devoted himself to academic activities including research on energy policy and technology, energy system
analysis, solar energy utilization, and optical concentration devices.

Takao Kashiwagi (nonmember) started a doctoral course at Tokyo Institute of Technology in 1975 after graduation from
a master’s course in 1972. He worked as an associate professor at Tokyo Institute of Technology. Since 1988, he has been a
professor at Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology. He was also a professor at Kyushu University in 1996. His research
field mainly includes energy and environmental systems, refrigeration and air conditioning as well as applied thermal
engineering.

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