Fuzzy Type-1 and Type-2 TSK Modeling with
Application to Solar Power Prediction
Saeed Jafarzadeh, Member, IEEE, M. Sami Fadali, Senior Member, IEEE,
Mehdi Etezadi-Amoli, Senior Member, IEEE
Abstract – The random nature of solar energy resources is an
obstacle to their penetration in power systems. The most
practical way to predict this renewable source of energy is to use
meteorological data. However, such data are usually provided in
a linguistic form that cannot be exploited using traditional
quantitative methods but which can be modeled using fuzzy
logic. This paper proposes type-1 and type-2 Takagi-Sugeno-
Kang (TSK) fuzzy systems for the modeling and prediction of
solar power plants. The paper considers TSK models with type-1
antecedents and crisp consequents, type-1 antecedents and
consequents, and type-2 antecedents and crisp consequents. The
design methodology for tuning the antecedents and consequents
of each model is described. Finally, input-output data sets from a
solar plant are used to obtain the three TSK models and their
prediction results are compared. The results show that type-2
TSK models with type2 antecedents and crisp consequents
provide the best performance based on the solar plant data.
Index Terms— Solar Power Plant, TSK Fuzzy Models, Type-2
Fuzzy Model.
I. INTRODUCTION
Although it has long been recognized that solar energy is
critical to meeting our energy needs [1], its exploitation has
been hampered by its intermittency and the difficulty of
predicting its availability. Thus, include solar energy as part of
our energy supply requires reliable prediction of its availability
for power generation. Lorenz et. al. [2] provided an approach
for irradiance forecasting based on the assumption that a
photovoltaic (PV) system is primarily influenced by solar
irradiance. Bacher et. al. [3] used 15-minute sampled
observations to obtain an autoregressive model of a PV system
with exogenous input. They used their model to obtain
predictions for its power output. Martin et. al. [4] compared
three models for the prediction of PV power output: an
autoregressive model, a neural network, and an adaptive-
network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). They studied
several scenarios and determined the appropriate model for
each scenario. Wu and Chan [5] proposed a hybrid model
which is a combination of an autoregressive and moving
average (ARMA) model and time delay neural network and
showed that the hybrid model gives better results than each
model separately. Recently, a self-organized map was
proposed to predict the solar power generation [6]. The
common property of these studies is the use of meteorological
predictions provided by local weather stations. Since
978-1-4673-2729-9/12/$31.00 ©2012 IEEE
meteorology is a complex and well established field, power
systems researchers must rely on the data provided by weather
stations. However, this exposes the solar power prediction to
the errors in the meteorological predictions. In other words, the
quality of the prediction depends on the quality of the weather
forecast provided by weather stations. Moreover, this
information is usually provided in linguistic terms and
characterized by qualitative knowledge. To exploit such
knowledge for modeling, one must use fuzzy logic theory. In
this paper we use forecasted temperature and irradiance to
obtain fuzzy logic models. To account for the uncertainty
inherent in solar generation and its prediction, we propose
using type-2 fuzzy models.
Liang and Mendel [7] discussed the strong modeling
capabilities of type-2 fuzzy systems. They compared type-2
and type-1 fuzzy models in time-series forecasting and
demonstrated the advantages of type-2 models. A black-box
methodology that can identify robust type-2 TSK models was
proposed in [8]. Celikyilmaz and Turksen [9] introduced a
type-2 fuzzy system for uncertainty modeling. Their type-2
fuzzy system used an evolutionary algorithm to obtain the
model. Yeh et. al. [10] proposed a methodology to obtain a
type-2 fuzzy model from a set of input-output data. In [11],
the authors used the approach of [12] to obtain type-2 models
with type-1 antecedents and consequents from experimental
data. Unfortunately, many of the modeling approaches that
have appeared in the literature so far are quite complex and
cannot be easily used in practical applications.
In this paper, we derive more general type-2 fuzzy models
based on the type-1 approach presented in [12]. We consider
TSK fuzzy multi-input multi-output (MIMO) systems viewed
as a set of multi-input single-output (MISO) fuzzy systems,
without loss of generality. We first present our method for
single-variable modeling, then discuss how it can be used to
obtain multivariable models.
Following [13], we refer to TSK system with type (i)
antecedents and type (j) consequents as A(i)-C(j). A1-C0, A1-
C1 and A2-C0 TSK systems are considered in this paper.
The paper is organized as follows. In Section II, we review
our type-1 fuzzy modeling approach. In Section III, we extend
our type-1 modeling approach to type-2 modeling. In Section
IV we discuss the use of presented methods for multivariable
modeling. In Section V, we apply the presented modeling
approaches to prediction of solar generation and compare the
 2

ressults obtained by each modeeling method. Conclusions and

a
sugggestions for future
fu work are given in Sectiion VI. (3)

II. A1-C0 (TYPPE-1) TSK MOD

DELING (4)
In [12] we prresented a sim mple approach h for modeling g a
funnction or a set of input-outpu ut data with a type-1
t TSK fuzzy
sysstem. The ap pproach uses the partial deerivatives of the
funnction, or of a polynomial fiit for experimeental data, to tu une
thee support of triangular membership function ns. The results are
genneral and coveer TSK modelss with polynom mial consequen nts.
Hoowever, they do not include type-2
t TSK mo odels. We pressent
thee main results of [12] witho out proof then n extend them m to
typpe-2 TSK mod dels. The compllete derivations of all the resu ults
aree available in [12].
[ Since the antecedent deesign is develop ped
forr a single varriable, we first present eacch method for a
funnction of single variable and d later discuss their extension n to
muultivariable fun nctions. To staate the modeliing results, so ome
preeliminary defin nitions are neeeded. We start with the typ pe-1
meembership funcctions and the fuzzy
f systems considered in this
t Figgure 1- Two neighhboring type-1 trianngular membershiip functions.
papper and their properties.
Triangular meembership funcctions (Figure 1) are the most m As itt can be seen from ( 2 ), has a key role in
poppular class of membership functions
f used
d in the literatu
ure.
determinning the upperr bound on thee error bound. In addition,
Wee consider trriangular mem mbership funcctions where this is tthe only adjusttable quantity in ( 2 ). Therefore a TSK
reppresents the center of thee fuzzy set.
s For norm mal, model ccan guarantee the approximaation error bouund , if the
connsistent and complete
c triang
gular memberrship functionss at centers of membershipp functions are chosen such that for any
moost two memb bership functiions are fired d simultaneously, two neiighboring mem mbership funcctions aand
nammely and . In this paaper, we assu ume we havee
ortthogonal [14] membership functions which w satisfy the
equuation 4 m
max min
∈ , ∈ ,
1, ∀
Thhis assumption n along with h normality, consistency and a
maxx m
min
commpleteness enssure that two ru ules are fired for
f any input. The
T ∈ , ∈ ,
typpe-1 systems co onsidered in th
his paper are TS SK fuzzy systeems (5)
deffined as follow
ws. To uuse this in moddeling, we seleect an error bouund and then
determinne centers of the membershhip functions successively
D
Definition 1: Type-1
T TSK Fuuzzy Systems subject to the constrraints ( 3 ), ( 4 ), and ( 5 ). This is
A TSK fuzzy system with orthogonal,
o connsistent, compllete accomp lished by proggressively incrreasing the vaariable and
andd normal triang
gular fuzzy setts has a rule base of the form evaluatiing the maximuum error ( 2 ) at each step uuntil the error
: bound is exceeded. The new cennter is the laast before
∈ , 1, … , exceedinng the error bbound. The proocess is repeaated over the
• range off to form thee set of membbership functionns. Once the
The output off the TSK sysstem of Definiition 1 is a crrisp memberrship functionns are formed,, we evaluate at the
nummber given byy centers oof the memberrship functionss to find the connsequents.
If thhe unknown function is oobtained usingg data with
boundedd error, then w
we use a polynoomial approxim mation of the
data wwith a knownn error bounnd . The polynomial
(1) approxim mation can bee differentiatedd to obtain thee derivatives
A
Assume that is a contin
nuous function of variable and
a needed for the methood. The error bounds for tthis case are
is a type-1 fuzzy TSK system which ap pproximates . given byy the sum of thhe fuzzy modeeling error bouund and the
Thhen for any ∈ , the app proximation errror is boundded polynommial approximaation error bouund [12].
by
1 III. A1-C1 TSK
K MODELING
max min
4 ∈ , ∈ ,
Fuzzyy models of pphysical systeems are usually based on
max min experim
mental data. Errrors in the ddata can be mmodeled with
∈ , ∈ , type-2 fuzzy systemss as uncertainnties in the anntecedent or
(2) consequuent membershhip functions. UUnlike type-1 systems, the
proovided that output oof a TSK typee-2 system is not a crisp vaalue without
 3

typpe reduction. This

T property is i desirable in particular for the use typee reduction onn the type-1 ooutput. The reesult of such
appplications in prediction. In suuch applicationns, type-2 mod dels type redduction is the same as the output of the type-1 TSK
cann provide a prredicted value as well as a range
r of probaable model oobtained usingg method of S Section II. In oother words,
vallues around it. Therefore the t main advaantage of typ pe-2 using A
A1-C1 TSK moodel, gives thee same crisp ouutput as A1-
moodels is that they
t can provvide a model with uncertaiinty C0 TSK K model but w with an uncerttainty bound oon this crisp
reppresentation. output.
Uncertainty due
d to measureement errors reesults in input and a
outtput uncertaintty was modeleed with A1-C1 1 TSK systemss in B
B. A2-C0
[111]. This model is similar to a Mamdani type-1 fuzzy systeem, In orrder to extend the results off Section II too obtain new
how wever in a Mamdani
M type-11 fuzzy systemm the output is i a modelinng methods forr A2-C0 (type--2) TSK system ms, we need
criisp number wh hile in A1-C1 ty put is a type-1 set.
ype-2 the outp to definne the type-2 mmembership fuunctions considdered in this
Thhis model doess not allow fo or uncertainty in the anteced dent paper. WWe limit our tyype-2 membersship functions to triangular
meembership funcctions. A2-C0 models provid de a more geneeral interval type-2 membeership functionns, which are ddefined based
reppresentation off uncertainty in
n terms of a lowwer bound and d an on theirr type-1 counteerparts. The foootprint of unccertainty of a
uppper bound on n the antecedeent membersh hip function. The
T type-2 mmembership fuunction is charracterized by its lower and
lowwer and upperr bound are reespectively kno own as the low wer upper mmembership fuunctions [15]. F For our trianggular interval
andd upper membership function ns [13]. type-2 mmembership fuunction, the uppper and lower membership
In this sectio
on we discuss A1-C1 and A2-C0A models for functionns are characterrized by
uncertain data. These results are extension ns of the typ pe-1 1
ressults of Section
n II.
1
A. A1-C C1 1
We extend thee results of Secction II to obtaain new modelling 1
meethods for A1--C1 TSK systeems. We assum me that lower and
a
uppper bounds on n the uncertainnty in the dataa are known. TheT
uncertainty can then be repreesented as a secondary typ pe-1 1
1
fuzzzy set with an interval membership
m fuunction with the
suppport bounded d by the low wer and upperr bounds of the where 0 1, 0 1 and 0 1 are parameters of
uncertainty in thhe data. In other words, if th he lower boun nd the foootprint of unncertainty. Suuch a type-22 triangular
memberrship function is illustrated inn Figure 2.
andd upper bound d on the uncertainty in thee collected dataa is
known, this unccertainty can be b represented d by the interrval
typpe-1 set ∈ , 1 . Under th hese
asssumptions the extension of thet results in Section II can n be
obttained by the following
f lemm
ma.
L
Lemma 1: Fo or a TSK mod del of Definition 1, adding an
intterval type-1 set ∈ , 1 to all the
connsequents resu ults in addingg this interal type-1 set to its
outtput.
Proof: The reesulting TSK fuzzy
f system has
h a rule basee of
thee form
:
∈ , 1, … ,
U
Using ( 1 ) an
nd extension principle the ou utput of this TSK
T
sysstem is a type-1 set
Figure 2- T ype-2 triangular m
membership functioon.
∈ , 1
The set of membeership functionns in the TSK K system of
Definitioon 1 is com mplete, consisstent and norrmal. These
, propertiies are not deefined for typee-2 membershiip functions.
Since oour type-2 TS SK system in this paper hhas a set of
• memberrship functionss with similar pproperties to our type-1 set
of memmbership functiions, we definee these propertties for a set
To obtain a TSK model for a set of inputt-output data withw of typee-2 membershhip functions and assume our type-2
intterval output uncertainty
u ∈ , , , we first
f memberrship functionss to have these properties.
usee the method ofo Section II to obtain a type--1 model and thhen
addd the type-1 seet to all the consequents. ThisT results in
n an Defin
nition 2: Comppleteness
A11-C1 model fo or the input-ou
utput data. Thee resulting mo odel Type--2 fuzzy sets , 1, … , in ⊂ are said to be a
hass an interval ty
ype-1 output. To
T obtain a crissp output one may
m complette partition on if for any ∈ , there is at least one
 4

fuzzzy set succh that the seecondary mem

mbership functtion 1 1
1
has a non
n-empty supporrt.
1 1
1
DDefinition 3: Normality
N
A set of type--2 fuzzy sets is normal if thee largest valuee in (7)
thee support of alll secondary meembership funcctions is unity. Note that the valuees of the lowerr and upper bouunds depend
on the values of the consequeents, parametters of the
DDefinition 4: Consistency
C memberrship functionss and .
A normal set of type-2 fuzzzy sets , 1, … , in ⊂ The eequations desccribing the bouunds are quite ccomplicated.
aree said to be a consistent
c on when ∀ ∈ if one second dary To sim
mplify these expressions w we make thee following
meembership funcction haas the unity vaalue in its support, assumpttions:
all other secondaary membership p functions at , i.e. , 1, … ,
1, … , , hav
ve the value zeero in their supp
port.
(8)
Thesee assumptions help us with thhree issues:
N
Now, we defin
ne our A2-C0 TSK
T system ussing the propertties
1. Using ( 8 ) we can show that for the
of type-2 membeership functionss.
denominnators in ( 6 ) and ( 7 ) arre unity. This will greatly
simplifyy the mathemattical derivationns.
D
Definition 5: Type-2
T TSK Fu uzzy Systems
2. The assumptiions in ( 8 ) m make the uncerrtainty in the
A
An A2-C0 TSK K fuzzy system m with consisteent, complete and
a
output cchange smoothhly when activve rules changge and avoid
norrmal triangularr type-2 fuzzy sets has a rule base of the forrm
discontiinuity in the moodel’s output.
: 3. The numbeer of param meters requireed for the
∈ , 1, … , characteerization of eaach membershhip function is reduced. In
• other w
words for each ttype-2 membeership functionn we only
In the system of Definition 5,5 for each inpuut two rules are
need to determine its center and its measure off uncertainty
fireed simultaneou usly. Consider the two neighhboring fuzzy sets
s
.
of Figure 3 (the common
c suppo mbership functions
ort of the mem
is shown). The rules
r associated wo fuzzy sets are
d with these tw Usingg assumptions ( 8 ) we can reewrite ( 6 ) andd ( 7 ) as:
givven as
1
:
:
(9)
1

( 10 )
interval type-22 membership functions, thee crisp (after
For in
type redduction) outpuut of the TSK K system is thee average of
these boounds.
Now that we now have a relatioonship betweenn the input
and thee bounds on the output off A2-C0 TSK K model, we
discuss how this reelationship cann be used foor modeling
purposee. Consider ann uncertain fuunction for whhich we can
evaluatee a lower and an upper bouund for any inpput. In other
Figure 3- Two
o neighboring typee-2 triangular mem
mbership functions.. words, the function iitself is not exxactly known and is only
characteerized by loweer and upper bbound functionns. To obtain
For an input ∈ ,
F thhe output of th
he A2-C0 systtem an A2-C C0 fuzzy moddel for such a bounded function, we use
the meethod of Secttion II for llower and uppper bounds
is a type-1 inteerval set ∈ , 1 . This
T simultanneously. Whenn any of the bounds violates tthe condition
intterval set can be characterrized by the upper
u and low
wer ( 5 ), w
we consider thee latest tested value of the iinput to be a
bouunds on its sup
pport [16] new cennter of thee membership functions. Theen we use ( 9
min , ) and ( 110 ) to evaluatee the consequeent and thee measure of
max , uncertaiinty for thhe new rule.
whhere
IV. MULTIVARIIABLE CASE
1 1 To uuse the modelling results foor a multivariiate function
1
, … , we obtainn the partial dderivative of
1 1 one variiable at a time and apply our results to eachh. The partial
1
derivativve with respecct to a particulaar variable is, in general, a
(6) functionn of all other vvariables. The data points prrovide a grid
 5

at wwhich the parttial derivatives are evaluated.. For example, for same foor all the rules. The predictionn results using A1-C1 TSK
we need the partial derivattive ⁄ , which
w depends on model aare shown in Fiigure 5.
, 1, … , . Inn this case while is fixed, , 2, … , are
nott. Therefore evaluation
e of the
t extrema in n ( 2 ) requirees a
seaarch over thee grid which results in more m membersship
funnctions. Hencee, a more co omplex modell is required for
muultivariable fun nctions. Once the membersh hip functions are
obttained, we caan form the rule base an nd determine the
connsequent of each rule using thet value of thee function at
thee centers of thee membership functions
f in thee rule.

V. APPLICATION TO SOLLAR GENERATIION PREDICTION

In this section we use the proposed TSK models
m to modeel a
75 kW solar plaant in Reno, Nevada
N and usse each modell to
obttain a predictiion for the power generation n. Measured data
d
froom this solar plant is used foor the purpose of modeling. The
T
meeasured data arre sampled at a rate of 1 saample/minute and a
incclude irradiatioon, temperaturre and the outpput power of the
plaant. We use thee measured datta and the meth hods of Sectionn II Figure 4- Prediiction results usingg the type-1 TSK m
model.
andd Section III with
w error boun nd 0.2 to obtain three TSK
T
moodels: A1-C0, A1-C1 and A2-C0. A These TSK models are
staatic models wiith irradiance and temperatu ure as inputs and
a
pow wer generation n as output. Eaach of these TSK models alo ong
witth weather forrecasts can prredict the pow wer output of the
sollar generation unit. Howeverr, the quality off the prediction
n is
maainly depends on o the weather forecasts.

Tablee 1- Rule base of th

he type-1 solar plaant model.
45
65 74 88 100
1
Very
V
Cold Mild Warm
W Hott
Cold
C
100
0 1.02 1.68 2.24 3
Daark Clouds
3539
3.78
23 24.95 25.74 26.57
2 27.62
2
Cloudy
5234
Mostly 35
5.06 36.04 37.21 39.04
3 40.93
3
Cloudy Figure 5- Prediction results usinng A1-C1 TSK moodel.
6872
46
6.04 47.84 48.01 50.12
5 51.24
4
Paartly Sunny
For a more generall uncertain moodel, we use a A2-C0 TSK
9237
Mostly 1.88
61 63.54 64.74 69.87
6 69.97
7 model. A2-C0 type-22 TSK modelss use the uncerrtainty in the
Sunny data to determine an uncertainty boound on their output. The
10000
67
6 68.24 69.13 69.8 70
rule basse for the A2-CC0 TSK system m is given in TTable 2. The
Sunny predictioon results usiing A2-C0 T TSK model arre shown in
Figure 66. These resullts show that iin addition to a forecasted
U
Using method d of Section III gives a typee-1 (A1-C0) TSK T power ggeneration, A22-C0 gives ann estimated rannge of valid
moodel with the ru ule base of Tabble 1. This mod del is used for the forecastt which is esseentially an unceertainty boundd on the crisp
preediction of pow wer generation n and the resu ults are compaared results.
witth the measu ured power generation
g in Figure 4. The T Finallly we comparee the error in thhe type-1 foreccast to that of
preediction horizo
on of these resuults is an hour and
a the predicttion the typee-reduced A1--C1 and the A A2-C0 forecast. Following
is updated every y 15 minutes. The type-1 fuzzy model can commonn practice for tthis comparisoon we use root mean square
b cannot provide any estim
proovide a satisfacctory forecast but mate error (R
RMSE) definedd by
of the accuracy of
o the forecast.
To compare th he performancce of the propo osed methods we 1
useed type-2 TSK K models to preedict the powerr generation of the , ,
sollar plant. The rule
r base of thee A1-C1TSK model m is the saame
as the A1-C0 model with a type-1 set
∈ 3,3 | 1 added to all the consequen nts.
Thhis type-1 set represents thee output uncerrtainty and is the
 6

Tab
ble 2- Rule base off A2-C0 solar plantt model. perform
mance of A2-C0 TSK models. These m models also
45 represennt the uncertainnty in the preddicted value byy an interval
63 79 91 100
1
0.1
115 type-1 sset in the outpuut.
0.131 0.259 0.116
0 0.24
4 Futurre work will exxtend our modeeling results to other type-2
Very
V
Cold Mild Warm
W Hott
Cold
C TSK syystems and exxplores TSK ssystems with membership
100 functionns other than trriangular.
0.408 0 1.45 2.06 2.46 3.71
1
Daark Clouds
3671
V
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This paper pro
oposes novel ap
pproaches for the design of A1-
A
C00, A1-C1 and A2-C0
A TSK models
m and shoows how they can
be used to preedict the available solar en nergy generattion
cappacity. A combbination of TSK
K models and weather forecaasts
is proposed forr solar poweer prediction. The predicttion
perrformances off A1-C0, A1-C C1 and A2-C0 TSK models are
com mpared. It is shown that A1-C1 and A2-C0 A are beetter
moodels for moree uncertain datta when comp pared with A1--C0
(tyype-1) models. The prediction
n results also show
s the superrior