6/20/2018 A Beginners Guide to Hypothesis Testing: Hypothesis Made Simple – Data Dojo: Data Analytics with Sunil Kappal

A Beginners Guide to Hypothesis Testing: Hypothesis

Made Simple
Posted on 23 Aug 2017 by skappal7

What is a hypothesis?

A hypothesis is a primary method in research. It is considered as an assumption for research work to

be tested. The main function of a hypothesis is to suggest new observations or experiments. A
hypothesis as a word is pretty interesting and has two concepts. Considering the fact that Hypothesis is
a combination of two Greek words, “Hypo” and “Thesis” it will be a great idea to look at these two
concepts in detail.

First Concept:

1. Hypo means “under” and “thesis” means “refer to place”, Therefore, it is anything under
consideration.

Second Concept:

2. Hypo means “less than” and thesis mean “generally held view”. Therefore, collectively looking at
these it means less than generally help view. This means “less “or “no” generalization of facts.

It will be worth mentioning some key extended definitions of a hypothesis by numerous scientists and
researchers.

1. Goode & Hall. It is a preposition which is pat to a test to determine its validity.
2. Lundberg. It is a tentative or systematic generalization, the validity of which remains to be tested.
3. Kerlinger. It is a causal relationship between two or more variables.

Therefore, based on the above definitions we can say that hypothesis is a relationship between two or
more variables, enabling the experimenter to test and give guidance to the research activity for further
analysis.

How to write a Hypothesis?

As we have understood from the above hypothesis definitions and the word “Hypothesis” itself. We can
say that most of the hypothesis can be divided into two sections, if and then. Therefore, it is even more
important for us to understand how to write these sections and also understand the dependent and
independent variables within the statement.

Independent Variable:

The condition be studied. It is controlled by the experimenter. Example: Knowledge

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Dependent Variable:

The condition affected by the independent variable. It can’t be can’t be controlled by the experimenter.
Example: Career Growth

Writing the “If” section of your Hypothesis

1. Start your sentence with the word “If”

2. Write down one of the variables
3. Connect statement with one of the following:
is related to
is affected by
causes
4. Write down other variables

Writing the “then” section of your Hypothesis

1. Make a comment on the relationship between those two variables.

Example: If section:

If knowledge is related to career growth,

Example: Then section:

Then the more knowledgeable an individual is, the better career growth he/she will have

Final “If / then” Statement

If knowledge is related to career growth, then the knowledgeable individual will have a better career
growth

Now that we have understood how to write a hypothesis statement, it is equally important for us to
understand the basics of hypothesis testing which is also called as significance testing. Before we
venture into the nuts and bolts of hypothesis testing, it will be beneficial for us to understand this
process in 5 simple steps.

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Type 1 and 2 Errors

With the analogy “an err to a human being” people can make mistakes when they perform hypothesis
testing while performing a statistical analysis. They can either make a Type I errors or Type II errors.
Therefore, it is very important to understand the difference between these two types or errors.
Considering the fact that there is some level of risk involved in making each type of error in every
analysis, and the amount of risk is under the experimenter’s control.

As a seasoned or a budding statistician we know that we begin any hypothesis test with the assumption
of the null hypothesis being correct and null hypothesis is a default position similar to “not guilty until
proven”.

It will be helpful to view these errors in a table which can be seen in almost all the statistical textbooks:

Reality Null (Ho) not rejected Null (Ho) rejected

Null (Ho) is true Correct Conclusion Type 1 error

Null (Ho) is false Type 2 error Correct Conclusion

Interpreting the above table:

We commit a Type 1 error if we reject the null hypothesis when it is true and we commit a Type 2 error
if we fail to reject the null hypothesis when it is not true.

Note: These errors related to the statistical concepts of risk, significance, and power.

Answering the bigger question, which type of error is worse?

Well, not to disappoint but there is no clear answer to the above question. In some instances, Type 1
error can cause a lot of risk compared to Type 2 and vice versa. However, based on several experts
opinions and suggestions using a table like below can help to decide the consequences of Type 1 and
Type 2 error.

Type 2 Error: Ho false, Not

Null Type 1 Error: Ho true, Rejected
Rejected

Medicine A Does not relieve Condition Medicine A relieves Condition

Medicine A does not
B, but is not eliminated as a treatment B, but is eliminated as a
relieve Condition B.
option. treatment option.

Result Patients with Condition B who receive A viable treatment remains

Medicine A get no relief. They may unavailable to a patient. Profit
experience side effects or even worst potential lost.
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6/20/2018 A Beginners Guide to Hypothesis Testing: Hypothesis Made Simple – Data Dojo: Data Analytics with Sunil Kappal

condition up to fatality. Possible

Litigation

Keep in mind that before testing a statistical hypothesis it is important to clearly state the nature of the
claim to be tested and since we assume the null hypothesis is true, we control for Type I error by
stating a level of significance. The level we set, called the alpha level (symbolized as a), is the largest
probability of committing a Type I error that we will allow and still decide to reject the null hypothesis.
This criterion is usually set at .05 (a = .05), and we compare the alpha level to the p value. When the
probability of a Type I error is less than 5% (p < .05), we decide to reject the null hypothesis; otherwise,
we retain the null hypothesis.

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