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Study on Economic Partnership Projects

in Developing Countries in FY2016

Pre-feasibility Study
for New Terminal Development Project
at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport
in the Republic of Kenya

Final Report

February 2017

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry


PREFACE

This Study Report was prepared by JGC Corporation in response to a request by the Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) for Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development
Project in Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (hereinafter, JKIA) in the Republic of Kenya as a
study on Economic Partnership Projects in Developing Countries in FY2016.

The re-based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Republic of Kenya (hereinafter, Kenya) figures
of USD 58.1 Billion in 2014 elevated Kenya to a Lower Middle Income Country, one of the largest
economies in Sub-Saharan Africa and amongst the fastest growing in the world. Additionally,
Kenya is located in the center of East Africa, and is expected the more economic growth as the
economic, commercial and logistical hub in East and Central Africa.

JKIA is a sole international airport at the capital city of Kenya as well as the gateway to East and
Central Africa. The number of passenger using JKIA decreased in 2008 and 2013 following
respective elections, however in later years it was increased smoothly, with the number of annual
international passengers reaching 3.9 million, domestic passengers 1.4 million and cargo volume 240
thousand tons in 2015.

Kenya aims at being a middle income providing high quality life for all citizens by the year 2030
Dec. in “Kenya Vision 2030", launched July, 2008. The modernization and expansion of JKIA is
considered as one of the most important projects that are central to economic development of Kenya.

Under the above circumstances, the Study Team conducted a Pre-feasibility study for the Project in
an effort to build world class airport, addressing technical, financial, economic, social and
environmental aspects.

The Study Team sincerely hopes that this report will be of help in realizing the Project and be useful
as well for the concerned parties of both countries.

February, 2017
JGC CORPORATION
MAP

Source: National online project


Abbreviation

2011M/P : National Airports System Plan 2011、2011 年マスタープラン


ACN : Aircraft Classification Number、航空機等級別番号
ADS : Automatic Dependent Surveillance、自動従属監視
ADP : Aéroports de Paris、パリ空港公団
AFD : Agence Française de Developpement、フランス開発庁
AfDB : African Development Bank、アフリカ開発銀行
AIP : Aeronutical Information Publication、航空路誌
ASDA : Accelerate Stop Distance Available、有効加速停止距離
ASECNA : Agence pour la Securite de la Navigation Aerienne en Afrique et a Madagascar、航
空保安会社
ATC : Air Traffic Control、航空交通管制
AU : African Union、アフリカ連合
CCTV : Closed Circuit Television、監視・防犯テレビ
CIP : Commercial Important Person、商業的重要人物
CNS/ATM : Communication, Navigation, Surveillance/Air Traffic Management、通信、航法、
監視および航空交通管理
CUTE : Common Used Terminal Equipment、供用ターミナル機器
EIE/EIA : Etude d’Impact Environnemental/Environmental Impact Assesment、環境影響評

FIR : Flight Information Region、航空情報区
GDP : Gross Domestic Product、国内総生産
GSE : Ground Services Equipment 、空港支援装備
IATA : International Air Transport Association、国際航空運送協会
ICAO : International Civil Aviation Organization、国際航空民間機関
ILS : Instrument Landing System 、計器着陸施設
JBIC : Japan Bank for International Cooperation、国際協力銀行
JETRO : Japan External Trade Organization、日本貿易振興機構
JICA : Japanese International Cooperation Agency、国際協力機構
JKIA : Jomo Kenyatta International Airport、ジョモ・ケニヤッタ国際空港
KAA : Kenya Airports Authority、ケニア空港会社
KCAA : Kenya Civil Aviation Authority、ケニア民間航空局
KES : Kenyan Shilling、ケニアシリング
KQ : Kenya Airways、ケニア航空
LDA : Landing Distance Available、有効着陸距離
LED : Light Emitting Diode、光放射ダイオード
MECIE : La Mise En Compatibilité des Investissements Avec L’Environnemen
(Environmental Compatibility and Investment) 、環境影響評価法
MOTI&HUD : Ministry of Transport, Infrastructure, Housing & Urban Development、ケニア運輸
インフラ省
MSL : Mean Sea Level、平均海面上
NACO : Netherlands Airport Consultant、オランダ空港コンサルタント
NDB : Non Directional Beacon、無指向性無線標識施設
NEMA : Natural Environmental Management Authority、ケニア環境省
O&M : Operation and Maintenance、運営維持管理
PAPI : Precision Approch Path Indicator、精密進入角表示灯
PAX : Passenger、旅客
PBX : Private Branch Exchange、個人用回線交換台
PCN : Pavement Classification Number、舗装等級番号
PHP : Peak Hour Passenger、ピーク時間旅客
PMU : Project Management Unit
PREE : Programme d’Engagement Environnemental (Environmental Management
Program) 、環境管理プログラム
R/W : Runway、滑走路
STD : Standard Time for Departure、標準出発時間
TODA : Take Off Distance Available、有効離陸距離
TORA : Take Off Run Available、有効離陸滑走距離
T/W : Taxyway、誘導路
UPS : Uninterrruptible Power System、無停電電源装置
VIP : Very Important Person、要人
VOR/DME : VHF omni Direction Ranging/Distance Measuring Equipment、VHF 全方位無線
標識
WB : World Bank、世界銀行
Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project in JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Draft Final Report

Table of Contents

Chapter 0 Summary

Chapter 1 Overview of Kenya and Kenyan Aviation Sector


1.1 Economical and Financial Condition in Kenya ...............................................................1-1
1.2 Overview of Aviation Sector in Kenya ............................................................................1-5
1.3 Condition of Project Area ................................................................................................1-9

Chapter 2 Survey Method


2.1 Objectives of Survey ........................................................................................................2-1
2.2 Survey Area......................................................................................................................2-1
2.3 Scope of Survey ...............................................................................................................2-2
2.4 Survey Schedule and Organization ..................................................................................2-4

Chapter 3 Outline of the Project and Technical Feasibility


3.1 Current Situation and Problems at the Airport .................................................................3-1
3.2 Basic Policy Related Project Component ......................................................................3-14
3.3 Necessary Technologies to be Considered for the Project .............................................3-24
3.4 Outline of the Project .....................................................................................................3-28
3.5 Effect of the Project on Stable Supply of Energy Sources to Japan ...............................3-33

Chapter 4 Environmental and Social Considerations


4.1 Analysis of Present Condition for Environmental and Social Considerations .................4-1
4.2 Outlines of Laws, Rules, and Regulations related to Environmental and Social
Considerations in Kenya, and Necessity Action for the Requirements ...........................4-3
4.3 Matters to be completed by Related Authorities including the Implementing Agency to
Realize the Projects..........................................................................................................4-6

4.4 Requests Related to Environmental and Social Considerations from the Implementing
Agency to the Japan Side .................................................................................................4-7

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Chapter 5 Financial and Economic Analysis


5.1 Project Cost Estimate .......................................................................................................5-1
5.2 Result of the preliminary financial and economic analysis ..............................................5-3

Chapter 6 Project Implementation Schedule


6.1 On-going Projects at JKIA ...............................................................................................6-1
6.2 Necessity of Detailed Master Plan (Revision of the Airport Master Plan) ......................6-4
6.3 Preconditions for Project Implementation Schedule ........................................................6-6
6.4 Project Implementation Schedule .................................................................................. 6-11
6.5 Future Action for the New PTB Construction................................................................6-13

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Summary
Table of Contents

Chapter 0 Summary........................................................................................................... 0-1

0.1 Overview of Kenya and Kenyan Aviation Sector ....................................................... 0-1


0.2 Overview of Aviation Sector in Kenya and the Project Site ..................................... 0-1
0.2 Survey Method................................................................................................................ 0-3
0.2.1 Objectives of Survey and Survey Area ....................................................................... 0-3
0.2.2 Survey Schedule and Organization ............................................................................. 0-3
0.3 Outline of the Project and Technical Feasibility ......................................................... 0-3
0.3.1 Background and Necessity of the Project................................................................... 0-3
0.3.2 Basic Policy Related Project Component ................................................................... 0-5
0.3.3 Necessary Technologies to be considered for the Project (Eco-Airport) ............... 0-5
0.3.4 Outline of the Project ..................................................................................................... 0-6
0.4 Environmental and Social Considerations .................................................................. 0-8
0.4.1 Analysis of Present Condition for Environmental and Social Considerations ....... 0-8
0.4.2 Matters to be completed by related authorities including the implementing agency
to realize the Projects ................................................................................................................ 0-8
0.5 Financial and Economic Analysis ................................................................................ 0-9
0.5.1 Premise, hypothetical condition ................................................................................... 0-9
0.5.2 Result of the preliminary financial and economic analysis .................................... 0-10
0.6 Project Implementation Schedule .............................................................................. 0-12
0.6.1 On-going Projects at JKIA........................................................................................... 0-12
0.6.2 Necessity of Detailed Master Plan (Revision of the Airport Master Plan) ............ 0-12
0.6.3 Preconditions for Project Implementation Schedule ............................................... 0-13
0.6.4 Project Implementation Schedule .............................................................................. 0-15
Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Chapter 0 Summary

0.1 Overview of Kenya and Kenyan Aviation Sector

Kenya is the hub of economy, commerce and logistics in East and Central Africa, and Kenya can be
an excellent destination for investment. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Kenya has increased,
and Kenyan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) occupies the 40% of GDP in the East Africa region.
Therefore, Kenya is likely to be the most hopeful economic country in the East African region.

In late years, the Kenyan GDP shows around 5% of steady growth. According to the Kenya
National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) report, Kenya is categorized in the Lower Middle Income
Country by the World Bank (WB) with 5.6% of GDP annual average growth rate and 1,340 USD of
Gross National Income (GNI) per capita.

0.2 Overview of Aviation Sector in Kenya and the Project Site

Kenya has a country area of approximately 1.5 times in Japan, and the air transportation takes an
important role for the movement of people.

Kenya has around 55 airports totally, and most of the airport facilities are managed and operated by
the Kenya Airports Authority (KAA) and the air traffic control services are provided by the Kenya
Civil Aviation Authority (KCAA), that are affiliated with the Kenya Ministry of Transport,
Infrastructure, Housing and Urban Development (MOTI&HUD).

Figure 0-1 Location of Main Airports in Figure 0-2 International Flight Network of JKIA
Kenya

Source: Study Team Source: Study Team

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) is the sole international airport in Capital Nairobi with
6.8 million passengers in 2015. The air passenger volume in Kenya has been increased steadily
with an annual average growth rate of 3.7%, and the around 75% of Kenyan whole air passenger
volume is occupied by JKIA, that shows JKIA is the right hub airport for international and domestic
flights in Kenya.

Figure 0-3 Air Traffic Passenger Amount in Kenya

10,000,000
Transit
9,000,000
Domestic
8,000,000
International
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
-
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: KAA

The city of Nairobi is characterized by undulating hilly topography with an elevation in a range of
1,460 m to 1,920 m. Nairobi is the largest city in Kenya, and also one of the most important
economic centres in East and Central African Regions. The Nairobi city accounts for 50 % of
formal employment in Kenya and generates over 50 % of the GDP.

JKIA is the capital airport located at about 13km south from the centre of Nairobi, the outline is
shown below.

Figure 0-4 Outline of JKIA

Source: Prepared by Study Team based on Google Earth

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

0.2 Survey Method

0.2.1 Objectives of Survey and Survey Area

The survey is carried out by the Survey Team based on the discussion with Kenyan Government and
each related authorities to establish a plan for the New Passenger Terminal Development Project
(hereinafter the Project) at JKIA. In addition, the Project is intended to be formed as a candidate of
yen-loan (ODA) agreement to introduce Japanese advanced technologies in it with “an Eco-airport”
concept. Survey area is at the JKIA site.

0.2.2 Survey Schedule and Organization

The survey was carried out from September 13, 2016 to February 28, 2017. The draft final report
was submitted at the end of January, 2017, and the final report is planned to be submitted at the end
of February, 2017.

The survey was carried out by the following 3 companies.

• JGC Corporation (Leader of the survey)


• Toyota Tsusho Corporation (Economic and Financial Analysis)
• Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. (Demand Forecast and Airport Plan)

0.3 Outline of the Project and Technical Feasibility

0.3.1 Background and Necessity of the Project

As an airport master plan, the Kenya National Airports System Plan (2011 M/P) was prepared by the
Louis Berger Group (LBG) in 2011, which covers the systems for Kenyan all airports and the details
for 10 major Kenyan airports including JKIA. The plan was intended to revise every 5 years, but it
was not revised in 2016.

After 2011, Kenyan civil aviation sector has been affected by politic, economic and social changes
with presidential elections, the outbreak of terrorism and so on in Kenya. Especially, at JKIA, with
the disappearance of the arrival lounge by the fire of August, 2013 at JKIA, the following
rehabilitation projects were planned.

• Rehabilitation of the Existing R/W, T/W and Apron (Parallel Taxiway Expansion)
• Rehabilitation of the Existing PTB (T1)
• Construction of the 2nd Runway
• Construction of the New Passenger Terminal Building (PTB)

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Figure 0-5 Layout Plan of Existing Facility

Source: KAA

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

0.3.2 Basic Policy Related Project Component

(1) Years to Be Developed Airport Facilities

2011 M/P was planned to complete in 2030. The target year of the Project is 2035 considering
5 years has been passed since 2011 M/P conducted.

(2) Demand Forecast

The air traffic demand is estimated with a forecasting model, which is developed by analyzing
the correlation between indicators of economy and air traffic demand. Among many
indicators, GDP is judged as eligible to be an independent variable for all of forecasting models.
As an economic indicator, the GDP provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was
applied to the air traffic demand forecast in this survey.

Table 0-1 Result of Passenger Forecast


Year 2015 (Actual) 2020 2025 2035
International 3,913,778 5,453,279 7,105,739 11,415,061
Domestic 1,403,009 2,070,295 2,941,946 5,215,058
Transit 1,163,638 1,475,457 1,804,918 2,664,093
Total Passenger 6,480,425 8,999,031 11,852,603 19,294,212
Source: Study Team

(3) Capacity of Airport Facilities of the Project

Based on the result of the passenger demand forecast, the annual passenger volume of JKIA
will be 19.3 million in 2035.

On the other hand, the annual passenger capacity of the existing PTB of JKIA is 7.5 million
(T1:5.0 million + T2:2.5 million) as of in 2017. According to KAA, the annual passenger
capacity of T1 will be increased to 8.0 million (+3.0 million) when the rehabilitation is
completed. And the existing terminal (T2) was built in 2015 in design life of ten years and
cannot anticipate the service after 2025.

Therefore, the new PTB should be designed and constructed with the annual passenger capacity
of 11.5 million (19.3 - 8.0).

0.3.3 Necessary Technologies to be considered for the Project (Eco-Airport)

In the new PTB construction, it is necessary to aim at the materialization of the “Eco-Airport" with
the latest energy-saving measures which are based on the week electric supply circumstances in
Kenya. Furthermore, the acquisition of the Silver Standard of LEED (Leadership in Energy &
Environmental Design) which is US environmental evaluation technique is declared in the JKIA
master plan.

In August 2003, the Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT)
established the “Eco-Airport Guidelines (1st edition)” to provide a basic structure for energy
conservation, recycling, and other environmentally-conscious endeavors in airports to mitigate
environmental impacts caused by the airport operations.
A lot of measures taken up from the above-mentioned guidelines could be applied to JKIA in order
to materialize the “Eco-Airport”.

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

0.3.4 Outline of the Project

The outline of the Project is as follows. Based on the air traffic demand forecast, the new PTB is
recommended to be complete the construction in 2023 and commerce the operation in 2024.

Q Design Target Year: 2035


Q Life of Facilities for Design: 12 years
Q Design Capacity: 11,500,000 passengers annually
Q Scope of the Project
- New PTB with total floor area of 20,000 m2 (including vehicular parking and
access road)
- New PTB apron with total paved area of 533,000 m2, Contact gate: 32, Remote: 8
- New connection taxiways
Q Total Project Cost: USD 6.98 million (excluding VAT and so on)

Figure 0-6 Relations between Air Traffic Demand Forecast and


Timing of Project Implementation

26
2017 2023 2035
24
Terminal Passenger (Million Persons)

Corrent Start of Common Use Goal


22
20
6 years 12 years 19.3 Mil.
18 Preparation: 3 years Design
16 Construction: 3 years

14
12
10
10.6 Mill.
8
6
4
2
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Year
Source: Study Team

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Figure 0-7 JKIA Layout Plan of Future Development Plan

Planed Location
Scope offor New
this PTB
Study

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Source: KAA
Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

0.4 Environmental and Social Considerations

0.4.1 Analysis of Present Condition for Environmental and Social Considerations

KAA have already conducted the environmental and social assessment (ESIA) for the
new PTB development, and the environmental license has been issued by the National
Environment Management Authority (NEMA). The license was issued in August 2014,
and expired in August 2016.

0.4.2 Matters to be completed by related authorities including the implementing agency


to realize the Projects

(1) Renewal of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) License

According to the interview with NEMA, re-licensing process and payment of the licensing fee
are not required. Only simple procedure to update the contents of the EIA report and payment
of the renewal fee are required for renewal of the license because of the following reasons:

• The new PTB development project will be conducted in the airport area.
• The environmental license was obtained and the licensing fee was paid once.

(2) Implementation of Strategic Environment Assessment (SEA)

In the Environmental (Impact, Audit and Strategic Assessment) Regulations enacted in 2009,
strategic environmental assessment (SEA) was newly stipulated. In the JKIA Master Plan in
the 2011M/P, SEA was conducted and summarized in Chapter 9. Even though the above
regulation of 2009 was already developed at that time, SEA rules had not been operated yet and
permission for the SEA of JKIA was not granted by NEMA. Therefore, KAA has acquired
environmental licenses for individual development projects at JKIA. However, it became
difficult for NEMA to review the overall development plan of JKIA, since individual
development projects are all located in the airport area and several contents to be considered in
each EIA are overlapping.
Hence, NEMA has requested KAA to conduct SEA for the overall development project of JKIA
first to acquire the permission, then to reacquire the environmental licenses for individual
projects. Prior to renewal of the environmental license for the GFT development project, KAA
needs to review and consider SEA for the overall development project of JKIA and conduct
supplemental survey to acquire permission of SEA by NEMA.

(3) Satisfaction of JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations

In case of utilizing financial supports by the Japan International Corporation Agency (JICA) for
the Project, it is required that the EIA report and relevant documents meet the requirements of
the JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations.
It was already confirmed in this study by the checklist in the JICA Guidelines that there were no
major issues on environmental and social considerations of the proposed project. However
further studies should be made in terms of noise and the mitigation measures.

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

0.5 Financial and Economic Analysis

0.5.1 Premise, hypothetical condition

Premise and hypothetical conditions for the financial and economic analysis of the new
PTB are as follows.

• Conduct construction cost estimate for the new PTB with maximum 11.5 million passengers /
year.
• Conduct estimation for aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenues and associated Operating
Expense (OPEX) to operate the new PTB thought the 30 years operation period. (2024~2053),
and generate cash flow model.
• Conduct a financial evaluation with using Internal Rate of Return (IRR) to assess the financial
feasibility and sensitivity analysis in order to assess the upside and downside scenario.
• Conduct financial evaluation under the PPP scheme in consideration of the direction of the
Government of Kenya to reduce external debt and also qualitative analysis to assess and
identify key issues regarding the PPP scheme

(1) Operating Expense (OPEX)

Labor cost, operation and maintenance cost, electricity cost, administration cost, interest,
depreciation and corporate tax are assumed to be incurred during the operation period.

(2) Capital Expenditure (CAPEX)

Construction costs as CAPEX are as follows.

Table 0-2 Construction Cost (CAPEX)


Item Cost in USD (,000)
1. Construction Cost 528,889
2. Contingency (1x20%) 105,778
3. Consultant Fee ((1+2))x10%) 63,467
698,133

(3) Number of Passenger handling in the new PTB

The existing PTB is assumed to be operated by KAA after the completion of the new PTB. In
other words, the third party (concessionaire) will operate only the new PTB in case of the
airport privatization in PPP scheme.
The maximum capacity of the existing PTB is estimated 10.5 million/year until 2024, and it
would reduce to 8.0 million/year after 2025 due to the closure of the T2, so the new PTB is
supposed to absorb the surplus passenger of the existing PTB.

(4) Revenue

As aeronautical revenues, the parking charge, the passenger service charge, the air bridge fee
and the fuel concession of JKIA are anticipated on the basis of the rules of KAA.
Based on the JKIA budget, the non-aeronautical revenues will be account for 36% of the
aeronautical revenues (excluding landing charge). The detailed contents of the expected
non-aeronautical revenues are the tenant fee, the catering service charge, the ground handling
charge, the advertisement fee and the car parking charge.

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

(5) Calculation period

Calculation period of the cash flow model is 1) construction period from 2020 to 2023 and 2)
operation period from 2024 to 2053 (30 years)

0.5.2 Result of the preliminary financial and economic analysis

Financial assessment and analysis is conducted to calculate IRR in consideration of CAPEX,


revenue, OPEX and interest which is required for the construct and operation of the Project about the
following 3 cases.

(1) Case 1: Construction project by ODA (STEP)

Following assumptions are used for the financial and economic assessment. The funding
scheme is based on the Japanese ODA loan (STEP). Assumptions shown in Table below are
used for the loan calculation.

Table 0-3 Loan assumptions


Interest Rate(yearly) Repayment period Grace period
0.1%(STEP) 30 years 10 years

IRR calculation is conducted with incorporating with assumptions set out in Table above. As
a result, the IRR for the project is 6.0% which exceeds the interest rate substantially; therefore
the financial feasibility is confirmed for the implementation of the Project.

(2) Case 2: Construction project by ODA (STEP) + PPP (Concession to the private sector
for the terminal operation)

The new PTB is constructed with financed by the Japanese ODA loan (STEP), and privatized
by the PPP scheme for operation.

(3) Case 3: Full private investment (PPP/BOT)

Construction, the operation of the new PTB is the case which a private company carries out
together. It becomes the BOT (Build, Operation and Transfer) contract by the PPP scheme

Table 0-4 Assumption of the case study and results


Case 1 Case 2
ODA(STEP)+PPP Full Private (PPP/BOT)
Loan conditions
・Debt/Equity Ratio 30/70%
・Repayment period 10 year
Same as ODA case
(Door to door)
・Interest rate 6%
Cost of Equity
・Equity Cost 20.0% 20.0%
・WACC N/A 15.8%

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Concession Fee
Fixed fee CAPEX×10% N/A
(1 time on commencement
of operation)
Variable fee Revenue×10% Revenue×10%
Result
Project IRR 4.4 % 4.4 %
Equity IRR 17.9% 4.7%
NPV (MM USD) -8 -336
Accumulated Concession
627 557
Fee(MM USD)

Based on the result above, it is revealed that the case-3 is not commercially feasible, since the IRR is
far below both equity cost and Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). Therefore, private firms
are not able to make an investment decision under this scenario.

On the other hand, the IRR of the case-2 is lower than ODA (STEP) case, however, IRR for the
equity shareholder is not far from the cost of equity and the KAA revenue through concession fee is
expected to reach certain amount for justifying this case. Therefore, this case could be feasible for
both of private and public sectors, since both parties will be able to enjoy certain benefit thought the
project. However, the detailed terms and condition should be carefully considered and studied
further in the next step.

The following matrix summarizes the features and the pro-cons for the considered three versions.

Table 0-5 Outline of the respective cases

Case Scheme Finance Pros/Cons


Case1: ODA Normal case:1.4% ○ Low interest loan
ODA(STEP) ODA Bid STEP:0.1% △ No change from current operation formation
Construction Operation

KAA KAA
Case2: ODA Foncession
After construction by ○ Low interest loan
ODA(STEP) ODA Bid Bid
ODA, operator is ○Utilizing private know-how
+Concession Construction Operation
selected by concession △Demarcation between existing and new PTBs
bid and undertake
KAA SPF operation
Case3: PrivaPe・AfDB Private investment ○Private know-how (World-class operator)
Private(PPP/ PPP Bid AfDB loan:6% △Private Company’s intention for participation
BOT) Construction Operation
(Feasible or Not)
△Demarcation between existing and new PTBs
SPF SPF

Source: Study Team

The focus of this report is to investigate the feasibility of the new PTB and assess both technical and
financial aspects. However, the demarcation (split of role) between existing PTB and the new PTB
would be one of the most critical issues for successful development of JKIA.

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

0.6 Project Implementation Schedule

0.6.1 On-going Projects at JKIA

Four major projects for rehabilitation and newly construction are now carried out at JKIA as showed
in the figure below.
Figure 0-8 Major On-going Projects at JKIA

Source: Study Team

In this report, the new PTB is described to be built in the location shown in the above figure, where
is based on the 2011 M/P. However the other location where is in the southeast direction of the
existing PTB for the new PTB (near the 2nd runway) is also recommendable with some advantages.

Such a relocation of one facility causes the other facilities to be moved. In other words it becomes
the billiards state. In order to avoid such a situation, the Airport Layout (Plot Plan) considering
expansion space has to be prepared carefully in the Airport Master Plan through the discussion with
the relevant parties.

0.6.2 Necessity of Detailed Master Plan (Revision of the Airport Master Plan)

The major 4 projects in JKAI are now carried out on the basis of the 2011 M/P issued in 2011.
Because the circumstances surrounding JKIA including the passenger volume decrease by the
terrorism outbreak in 2013 have changed after then in Kenya, the immediate revision of the Airport
Master Plan is required. For example, the air traffic demand forecasted curve described in the
Chapter 3 (forecasted in 2015) is changed in comparison with the demand forecasted curve in the
2011 M/P (forecasted in 2011) about five years late.

Several hierarchies can be thought about by an airport range to intend for the Airport Master Plan
shown in the figure below. The low-end Airport Master Plan is made for only one airport, which
composes it of (1) Current situation survey, (2) Demand forecast, (3) Facility requirements, (4)
Development plan (including airport layout), (5) Cost estimation and (6) Economic analysis.

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Figure 0-9 Contents of the Airport Master Plan

Source: Study Team

The reinforcement of the passenger capacity of JKIA is a very urgent issue. In this report, the early
revision of the Airport Master Plan for JKIA (JKIA Detailed Master Plan) is strongly requested, that
makes the mutual relations of major 4 on-going projects at JKIA clear and keeps them harmonized
with the unified ide and vision for the future of JKIA.

0.6.3 Preconditions for Project Implementation Schedule

(1) Proposed scheme for finance and operation for the new PTB

The following finance and operation schemes for the new PTB construction project become the
preconditions for preparing for the project implementation schedule in this report. (refer to
Phase 1 in the Figure below)

1) Construction of the new PTB is done by Japanese ODA (STEP) as its finance source.
2) Operation and maintenance for the new PTB are done by the third party (Concessionaire).
It is expected to increase the airport value by utilizing the world-class airport operator as
well as to obtain the latest know-how in the airport operation and maintenance.
3) Based on the JKIA Detailed Master Plan, the new PTB is well harmonized with the other
projects carried out at JKIA.

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Figure 0-10 Proposed scheme for finance and operation for the new PTB

Source: Study Team

(2) Pursuit of an eco-airport in the new PTB

In the privatization of the airport by the PPP scheme above mentioned, an example of airport
privatization in Japan serves as your good reference.

On the other hand, the Japanese Government promotes airports in Japan to materialize the
higher “Eco-Airport”. The expectation to the “Eco-Airport” is also very high in Kenya
especially it is aggressive to introduce the energy-saving technology considering the power
supply circumstances in Kenya. Therefore, the pursuit of the “Eco-Airport” based on the
cooperation of Kenya and Japan could expect the possibility of introducing the Japanese latest
eco-technologies into Kenya and combination research and development, ant it may be said that
there is the merit for two countries.

(3) Time limitation of each project based on the demand forecast

The current annual passenger capacity of JKIA is 7.5 million. The details are as follow.

T1-A : 2.5 million


T1-B/C/D/E : 2.5 million
(T1) : 5.0 million (+3.0 million by T1 rehabilitation, becomes 8.0 million)
T2 : 2.5 million (Design life is over in 2025)
(T1+T2) : 7.5 million

T2 that was built as the design life of 10 years in 2015 finishes the position quota in 2025.
Then, the passenger capacity of 2.5 million/year is decreased at JKIA.
Therefore, the annual passenger capacity of the existing PTB at JKIA has to be considered as
10.5 million (T1:8.0 + T2:2.5 million) by 2025, and only 8.0 million (T1:8.0 million) after 2025,
with adding 3.0 million increase to T1 by the rehabilitation.

According to the demand forecast described in the Chapter 3, the annual passenger volume
becomes approximately 10.5 million in 2023 that is equal to the total capacity of JKIA then.
Therefore, it is necessary to complete the construction and commerce the operation of the new
PTB at JKIA in 2023. KAA is requested to start both projects of T1 rehabilitation and the new
PTB construction in parallel as soon as possible in order to prevent the passenger capacity
excess at JKIA.

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In terms of the passenger capacity for the new PTB, it is planned based on 8.0 million of the
passenger capacity of the existing PTB after 2025 as a precondition. As mentioned in detail in
the Chapter 3, the new PTB should be available for the passenger demand until 2035.
Therefore, it is recommended to plan the new PTB at JKIA with the annual passenger capacity
of 11.5 million as phase 1 of the development. As a result, total annual passenger capacity
becomes 19.5 million (T1:8.0 + new PTB:11.5).

0.6.4 Project Implementation Schedule

(1) Time limitation of each project


Time limitations of the on-going projects at JKIA based on the air traffic demand forecast are
shown in the figure below.

Fig. 0-11 Time limitation of each Project at JKIA based on the PAX demand forecast

Source: Study Team

(2) Project Implementation Schedule and Future Action

As mentioned in a foregoing paragraph, it is necessary to complete the construction and


commence the operation on the new PTB at JKIA in 2023. In the project implementation
schedule, the commencement of the operation is made in 2024, and the completion of the
construction is assumed in 2023.

For the construction financed by the Japanese ODA (STEP), it is planned to take 3 years for the
construction, 1 year for the detailed design and 1 year for the preparatory study (basic design)
and 6 months for each consultants and contractor selections. As a result, this project has to be
started (consultant selection for the preparatory study) in the middle of this year (2017) at the
latest.

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On the other hand, for the operation of the new PTB by the third party (concessionaire), it must
be made based on the procedure determined in the Kenyan PPP law. The necessary work
activities such as preparatory study (PPP Feasibility Study) for basic design and PPP scheming,
preparation for concessionaire selection are referred to the Japanese procedure for the airport
privatization.

Fig. 0-12 Project Implementation Schedule

Source: Study Team

As for the passenger volume using JKIA, it is expected to be exceeded its passenger capacity in very
this year (2017), and expansion of passenger capacity of JKIA by the rehabilitation of the existing
PTB (T1) as well as by the construction of the new PTB are very urgent issues.

As described in the Chapter 5, the new PTB is recommended to be constructed by utilizing Japanese
ODA (STEP) finance, and operated by the third party (concessionaire) under the PPP scheme.

Reproduction
Prohibited

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Chapter 1

Overview of Kenya and Aviation


Sector in Kenya
Table of Contents

Chapter 1 Overview of Kenya and Kenyan Aviation Sector ..................................... 1-1


1.1 Economical and Financial Condition in Kenya ................................................................ 1-1
1.1.1 Overview of Kenyan Economy ................................................................................. 1-1
1.1.2 Major Economic Indicators in Kenya ....................................................................... 1-1
1.1.3 Public Finance in Kenya ........................................................................................... 1-3
1.2 Overview of Aviation Sector in Kenya ............................................................................. 1-5
1.2.1 Airports in Kenya ...................................................................................................... 1-5
1.2.2 Air Traffic Performance in Kenya ............................................................................. 1-6
1.2.3 Public Organizations and Airlines in the Aviation Sector in Kenya .......................... 1-8
1.3 Condition of Project Area ................................................................................................. 1-9
1.3.1 Overview of Nairobi City ......................................................................................... 1-9
1.3.2 Airports in Nairobi City .......................................................................................... 1-13
Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Chapter 1 Overview of Kenya and Kenyan Aviation Sector


1.1 Economic and Financial Condition in Kenya
1.1.1 Overview of Kenyan Economy
The scale of economy in Kenya is the biggest in East Africa and it has grown rapidly in
recent years. The Kenyan economy has advantages, such as:

Q Kenya hasan educated labour force .


Q Kenya has a hub port as logistics base to inland countries in East and Central Africa.
Q There is abundant wildlife and a vast and fascinating coastline.
Q The government has promised the implementation of economic reforms.

Kenya is the economic, commercial, and logistics hub in East and Central Africa, and is an
excellent destination for investment. The foreign direct investment (FDI) in Kenya has increased
over time, and the Kenyan gross domestic product (GDP) is 40% of the GDP in the East African
region. Therefore, Kenya is likely to be the most hopeful economic country in the East African
region.
In addition, compared with other countries, Kenya is the most diversified economic country
which does not export oils and gases.
Furthermore, development of modern railways, ports, airports, and geothermal plants have
accelerated the growth of the Kenyan economy. It also makes Kenya economically stable since the
country is a member of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and East
African Community (EAC) which include about a third the African population with about 400
million people.

1.1.2 Major Economic Indicators in Kenya


The GDP of Kenya has grown stably at 5% averagely. According to the Kenya National
Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), a growth rate of 5.6% is recorded mainly because of the improvement
of macroeconomic situation and the sectors of agriculture, construction, real estate, and financial and
insurance in 2015. The gross national income (GNI) per capita in 2015 is USD 1,340 and Kenya is
categorized as one of the lower middle income countries by the World Bank.

Table 1-1 Major Economic Indicators


Series Name 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Population, total 23.4 31.1 40.3 41.4 42.5 43.7 44.9 46.1
(million people)
Population growth (annual %) 3.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6
GNI, Atlas method (current billion USD) 8.8 13.2 40.4 42.9 46.5 51.6 58.2 61.8
GNI per capita, Atlas method (current 380 420 1,000 1,040 1,090 1,180 1,300 1,340
USD)
GDP (current billion USD) 8.6 12.7 40.0 42.0 50.4 55.1 61.4 63.4
GDP growth (annual %) 4.2 0.6 8.4 6.1 4.6 5.7 5.3 5.6
Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %) 10.6 6.1 2.1 10.8 9.4 5.4 8.0 9.1

Source: World Development Indicators, the World Bank

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According to the data in 2015, the biggest share in the Kenyan GDP is from agriculture,
which has at 30% of the total GDP. High quality cut flowers are the main export items. The second
biggest share is from manufacturing and at 10% of the total GDP. The service sector including
transport and storage, which has the third biggest share (around 8% of the total GDP amount), at
50% of the total GDP. While agriculture has grown from 23% of the total share in 2006,
manufacturing has declined from 14% of the total share in 2006.

Figure 1-1 GDP Share by Industrial Sectors

Source: Economic Survey 2016

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1.1.3 Public Finance in Kenya


The present condition of public finance was reported in the “Economic Survey 2016” by
KNBS and the main points are shown below.

(1) Overview
Q The fiscal plan in 2015/16 entailed a deliberate effort to continue exercising prudence in public
expenditure management with the principal goal of containing fiscal risks, gradually lower the
fiscal deficit, and contain growth of recurrent expenditures in favour of productive capital
spending.
Q The government endeavoured to accelerate spending in infrastructure, agriculture, security,
health, education, social protection, and youth empowerment. The overall objective of this will
be to realize sustainable, shared, and equitable growth that would in return lead to job creation.
Q The national government budget estimates for 2015/16 amount to KES 2,224.0 billion, an
increase from KES 1,950.7 billion spent in 2014/15. Total recurrent expenditure is estimated at
KES 1,238.2 billon, while development expenditure is expected to grow by 22.8% to KES
985.8 billion. On the other hand, the total recurrent revenue in 2015/16 is estimated to register a
26.6% growth to stand at KES 1,401.2 billion, out of which, tax revenue will account for
92.0%.
Q Total stock of debt as of the end of 2014/15 stood at KES 2,601.4 billion, of which, external
debt stock accounted for 54.7%.

(2) Key Fiscal Ratios


Q The ratio of public debt to GDP stood at 41.8 in 2014/15, increasing from 36.0 in 2011/12.

Table 1-2 Key Fiscal Ratios, 2011/12-2015/16

Source: Economic Survey 2016, KNBS

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(3) External Debt


Q The total stock of debt was KES 2,601.4 billion in 2014/15, of which, the external debt
amounted to KES 1,423.3 billion.
Q Bilateral external debt was KES 445 billion. The debt stock from the People’s Republic of
China grew significantly from KES 32.45 billion in 2011 to KES 252.0 billion in 2015 due to
infrastructural developments.

Table 1-3 National Government Outstanding Debt by Source, 2010/11-2014/15

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1.2 Overview of Aviation Sector in Kenya


1.2.1 Airports in Kenya
Kenya has a vast land area and air transportation plays an important role in the movement of
people. Some airports/aerodromes in Kenya are shown in Table 1-4. Kenya has a total of 55 airports
and most of them are managed and operated by the Kenya Airports Authority (KAA). In these
airports, the international airports are in four locations (Jomo Kenyatta, Eldoret, Kisumu, and Moi),
and the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) in Nairobi is the main airport in Kenya. Most of
the airports do not have scheduled flights. Wajir Airport is considered an international gateway as it
is used for screening of persons from Somalia into Kenya before terminating at JKIA and other
airports.

Table 1-4 Select Public Airports/Aerodromes in Kenya


Schedule Runway
No. City Name Airport Name IATA ICAO Operator Elevation
Flight Length Pavement
1 Amboseli Amboseli Airport ASV HKAM KCAA Public Yes 1,145m 1,001m Asphalt
2 Bamburi Bamburi Airport BMQ ---- KCAA Public 16m 976m Asphalt
3 Bungoma Bungoma Airport --- HKBU (KAA) Public 1,440m 900m Asphalt-partial
4 Bura Bura East Airport --- HKBR KCAA Public 105m 1,000m Unpaved
5 Busia Busia Airport --- HKBA (KAA) Public 1,216m 1,000m Unpaved
6 Eldoret Eldoret International Airport EDL HKEL KAA Public Yes 2,150m 3,475m Asphalt
7 Eliye Springs Eliye Springs Airport EYS HKES (KAA) Public 425m 900m Asphalt
8 Embu Embu Airport HKEM (KAA) Public 1,265m 990m Asphalt
9 Garba Tula Garba Tula Airport HKGT (KAA) Public 610m 1,000m Unpaved
10 Garissa Garissa Airport GAS HKGA (KAA) Public 145m 1,200m Asphalt
11 Hola Hola Airport HOA HKHO (KAA) Public 59m 900m Unpaved
12 Homa Bay Homa Bay Airport --- HKHB (KAA) Public 1,293m 1,200m Asphalt
13 Isiolo Isiolo Airport HKIS (KAA) Public 1,067m 1,390m Asphalt
14 Kakamega Kakamega Airport GGM HKKG (KAA) Public Yes 1,530m 1,280m Asphalt
15 Kalokol Kalokol Airport KLK HKFG (KAA) Public 379m 1,000m Asphalt
16 Kericho Kericho Airport KEY HKKR (KAA) Public 2,184m 1,185m Unpaved
17 Kilaguni Kilaguni Airport ILU HKKL (KAA) Public 840m 1,600m/1,600m Unpaved/Unpaved
18 Kimwarer Kimwarer Airport KRV (KAA) Public 1,433m 980m Unpaved
19 Kisii Kisii Airport HKKS (KAA) Public 1,493m 980m Asphalt
20 Kisumu Kisumu International Airport KIS HKKI KAA Public Yes 1,157m 3,300m Asphalt
21 Kitale Kitale Airport KTL HKKT (KAA) Public Yes 1,850m 1,450m Asphalt
22 Kiwayu Kiwayu Airport KWY (KAA) Public Yes 7m 920m Unpaved
23 Lake Baringo Lake Baringo Airport LBN LBN Baringo Public Yes ? ? ?
24 Lamu Manda Airport (Lamu Airport) LAU HKLU KAA Public Yes 6m 1,004m/931m Asphalt/Dirt+Grass
25 Lewa Lewa Airport --- ---- (KAA) Public 1,700m 1,200m Unpaved
26 Lodwar Lodwar Airport LOK HKLO KCAA Public Yes 523m 1,000m Asphalt
27 Loitokitok Loitokitok Airport --- HKLT (KAA) Public 1,622m 1,000m Unpaved
28 Loiyangalani Loiyangalani Airport LOY HKLY KCAA Public 364m 1,127m Bitumen
29 Lokichogio Lokichogio Airport LKG HKLK KAA Public Yes 64m 1,888m Asphalt
30 Lokitaung Lokitaung Airport --- HKLG KCAA Public 550m 750m Unpaved
31 Mackinnon Road Mackinnon Road Airport --- HKMR (KAA) Public 360m 1,130m Unpaved
32 Magadi Magadi Airport --- HKMG (KAA) Public 640m 1,750m Unpaved
33 Makindu Makindu Airport --- HKMU (KAA) Public 1,000m 910m Unpaved
34 Malindi Malindi Airport MYD HKML KAA Public Yes 23m 1,400m/1,082m Asphalt/Asphalt
35 Mandera Mandera Airport NDE HKMA (KAA) Public 231m 1,100m Asphalt
36 Maralal Kisima Airport --- HKMI (KAA) Public 1,811m 900m Unpaved
37 Marsabit Marsabit Airport RBT HKMB (KAA) Public 1,338m 1,104m Asphalt
38 Masai Mara Mara Serena Airport MRE (KAA) Public Yes 1,707m 1,050m Unpaved
39 Masai Mara Keekorok Airport --- HKKE (KAA) Public 1,768m 1,280m Unpaved
40 Meru Mulika Lodge Airport JJM HKMK (KAA) Public Yes 680m 1,000m/310m Asphalt partial/Unpaved
41 Mombasa Moi International Airport MBA HKMO KAA Public Yes 61m 3,350m/1,363m Asphalt/Asphalt
42 Moyale Moyale Airport OYL HKMY KCAA Public 850m 1,300m Asphalt
43 Mtito Andei Mtito Andei Airport --- HKMT (KAA) Public 731m 1,400m Unpaved
44 Nairobi Jomo Kenyatta International Airport NBO HKJK KAA Civil+Military Yes 1,624m 4,117m Asphalt
45 Nairobi Wilson Airport WIL HKNW KAA Public Yes 1,690m 1,462m/1,540m Asphalt/Asphalt
46 Naivasha Naivasha Airport HKNV (KAA) Public 1,936m 1,102m Asphalt
47 Nakuru Nakuru Airport NUU HKNK (KAA) Public Yes 1,900m 1,709m Asphalt
48 Nanyuki Nanyuki Airport NYK HKNY (KAA) Public Yes 1,905m 1,200m Asphalt
49 Narok Narok Airport HKNO (KAA) Public 1,850m 1,850m Asphalt
50 Nyeri Nyeri Airport NYE HKNI (KAA) Public 1,777m 1,230m Unpaved
51 Samburu Samburu Airport UAS HKSB (KAA) Public Yes 1,004m 810m Asphalt
52 Ukunda Ukunda Airport UKA UKA KAA Public Yes 30m 1,174m Tarmacadam
53 Vipingo Vipingo Airport VPG VPG Yes No data
54 Voi Voi Airport --- HKVO (KAA) Public 580m 1,280m Unpaved
55 Wajir Wajir Airport WJR HKWJ (KAA) Public Yes 235m 2,802m Asphalt

Source: Study Team

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

The location of the main airports in Kenya and the international flight network of JKIA are
shown in Figure 1-2 and Figure 1-3, respectively. Most of the international flights in Kenya are
concentrated in JKIA and they consist of flights for the main African countries (mainly East African
countries), Middle East, Europe, and Asia.

Figure 1-2 Location of Main Airports Figure 1-3 International Flight Network of JKIA
in Kenya

Source: Study Team Source: Study Team

1.2.2 Air Traffic Performance in Kenya


The number of air traffic passenger, aircraft movements, and air cargo in the airports
operated by KAA are shown in Figure 1-4, Figure 1-5, and Figure 1-6, respectively. The passenger
throughput has grown at 3.7% averagely. It can be understood that the domestic aircraft movements
is more than international movements, although the international passenger throughput is higher than
domestic passenger throughput because of the difference in the size of aircrafts and that only a
limited amount of air cargo traffic is operated domestically.

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Figure 1-4 Air Traffic Passenger Throughput in Kenya


10,000,000
Transit
9,000,000
Domestic
8,000,000
International
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
-
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: KAA

Figure 1-5 Aircraft Movements in Kenya


300,000
Domestic
250,000
International

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

-
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: KAA

Figure 1-6 Air Cargo Throughput in Kenya


350,000,000 Domestic

300,000,000 International

250,000,000

200,000,000

150,000,000

100,000,000

50,000,000

-
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: KAA

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

1.2.3 Public Organizations and Airlines within the Aviation Sector in Kenya
(1) Public Organizations
The organizations that are in-charge of the aviation sector are the Kenya Airports Authority
(KAA), the Kenya Civil Aviation Authority (KCAA), and the East African School of Aviation
(EASA), as shown in Figure 1-7. EASA is a semi-authorization division of KCAA. All these three
organizations are under the Ministry of Transport, Infrastructure, Housing and Urban Development
(MOTI & HUD). The Technological Department is a major stakeholder.

Figure 1-7 Public Organizations of within the Aviation Sector in Kenya

Ministry of Transport, Infrastructure, Housing and Urban Development)

Department for Transport Kenya Railways Corporation (KRC (Amendment) Act, 2005)

Kenya Railways Training School (KRC (Amendment) Act, 2005)


• Formed : 1991.
Department for Infrastructure • Location : JKIA
Kenya Ports Authority (KPA Act)
• Owner and Operator of 11 major civilian airports in
Kenya Airports Authority (KAA Act, 1991) Kenya, such as Jomo Kenyatta Inter. Airport.
Department for Housing & Urban Development • Number of Staff :
Kenya Civil Aviation Authority (KCAA (Amendment) ACT,2002)

East African School of Aviation (KCAA Amendment) ACT,2002)


Department for Maritime & Shipping Affairs
• Formed : 2002.
Transport Licensing Board • Location : JKIA
• Responsible for :
Department for Public Works Transport Licensing Appeals Board
- Regulating the aviation industry in Kenya
- Providing air navigation services in the Kenya flight
National Transport Safety Authority (NTSA
region
Kenya Ferry Services • Number of Staff :

LAPSSET Authority(Kenya Gazette Notice 51, No. 58 of 2013)

Kenya Maritime Authority

• Formed : 1954.
• Location : JKIA
• EASA is an ICAO Regional Training Centre of Excellence
(RTCE), an ICAO TrainairPLUS full member, an ICAO
Aviation Security training centre (ASTC).
• Number of Staff :

Source: Study Team

(2) Airlines
Several airline companies operate in the country. Some of which are shown in Table 1-5.
Kenya Airways is the largest airline in Kenya. It belongs to Sky Team, one of three alliances to
which airline belong.

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Table 1-5 Airlines in Kenya


Airline Code Country description Hub Airport Destinations Fleet Size Fleet Type
Kenya Ai rways KQ/KQ Kenya • Foundation: 1977 Jomo Kenyatta Inter./Dome: 62 Ci ti es 36 B787-8(1)
A • Fl a g Carrier of Kenya Moi As i a: Mumbai, Bangkok, Hanoi, B777-200ER(4)
• Al l iance: Sky Team (2010) Europe: Pa ris Amsterdam, B777-300ER(1)
• Pri va ti zed i n 1996 London B767-300ER(6)
• Sha reholders: Government of Kenya (29.8%), B737-800(5)
KLM (26.73%) B737-700(4)
B737-300(6)
Embra er 170LR(5)
Embra er 190(4)
Fl y 540 5H/FFV Kenya • Foundation: 2006 Jomo Kenyatta Domestic: 8 ci ties 6 CRJ100(3)
• LCC (Low-Cos t Carri er) International: 2 ci ti es CRJ200(2)
• Sha reholder: Fastjet (UK, 49%) ( South Sudan and Tanzania ) Da s h 8-100(1)
JetLi nk Express J0/JLX Kenya • Foundation: 2006 Jomo Kenyatta Domestic: 5 ci ties 5 CRJ100(3)
• Si gned MoU with Fastjet (UK) i n 2013 International: 2 ci ti es CRJ200(2)
( South Sudan and Tanzania )
Ja mbojet JX/-- Kenya • Foundation: 2013 Jomo Kenyatta Domestic: 7 ci ties 4 B737-300(3)
• LCC (Low-Cos t Carri er) DHC-8-Q400(1)
• Subs idiary of Kenya Ai rways
Fl y-SAX B5/EXZ kenya • Foundation: 2013 (farmer “East Afri can Safari Wi l son Domestic: 11 ci ties 7 CRJ200(1)
Ai r”) International: 3 i ti es DC-9(2)
• Subs idiary of Fl y540 ( Comoros , Somalia, Uganda ) Fokker F-28(1)
Beechcraft 1900(1)
Ces s na 208 Ca ravan(2)
Sa farilink F2/XLK • Foundation: 2004 Wi l son Domestic: 12 ci ties 12 Ces s na Caravan(10)
Avi a ti on • Regi onal Ai rline De Ha villand Twin Otter(1)
• Schedule d a nd Charter Flights operation De Ha villand Dash 8-100(1)
ALS - Ai rcra ft K4/-- • Foundation: 1985 Wi l son Domestic: 3 ci ties 27 Da s h 8-100(7)
Lea sing Servi ces • Scheduled and Charter Flights operation Embra er 135LR (2)
Beechcraft 1900D(3)etc.
Ai rkenya Express P2/XAK • Foundation: 1987 Wi l son Domestic: 11 ci ties 9 De Ha villand DHC-7-102(2)
• Scheduled and Charter Flights operation International: 1 ci ty (Ta nzania) De Ha villand DHC-6-300(3)
• Subs idiary of Kenya Express Ces s na Caravan C208B(3)
Ba ra cuda --/-- • Foundation: 2015 (Operated in 2016) Wi l son Domestic: 2 ci ties 1 Da s h 8-300(1)
Ai rwa ys

Source: Study Team

1.3 Condition of Project Area


1.3.1 Overview of Nairobi City
The city is bounded by Kajiado County to the south and southwest, Kiambu County to the
north and northwest, and Machakos County to the east and southeast. Nairobi City is characterized
by undulating hilly topography with an elevation ranging of 1,460 m to 1,920 m.

Nairobi is the capital and largest city of Kenya and also one of the most important economic
centers in East Africa. Nairobi City accounts for 50% of the formal employment in Kenya and
generates over 50% of GDP. The city plays an important role not only as a political center but also as
a model for economic and social development.

Urbanization within the outer area of Nairobi City had rapidly expanded in recent years.
Greater Nairobi is planned as part of the Nairobi Metropolitan in the Nairobi Integrated Urban
Master Plan.

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Figure 1-8 Nairobi City and Surrounding Area

JKIA

Source: The Project on Integrated Urban Development Master Plan for the City of Nairobi in the Republic of Kenya
(JICA, 2014)

The average population density excluding Nairobi National Park is 5,429 per km2. The
Central Division and Kamukunji Division have a much higher density than others. In Greater
Nairobi, Nairobi City had grown faster in the period from 1989 to 1999 when the city grew at 4.9%
and the environs outside the city at 3.0%. But from 1999 to 2009, the environs grew faster as it grew
at 4.1% and the city at 3.9%. The change seems to be a sign of urban expansion of Nairobi City. In
the city, Embakasi Division has the highest growth, while out of the city in Greater Nairobi, Ruiru
area to the north of the city and Mavoko and Kitengela areas to the south are the fastest growing.

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Figure 1-9 Population Density of Nairobi City

Source: 2009 Census

In “The Project on Integrated Urban Development Master Plan for the City of Nairobi in the
Republic of Kenya (2014)” done by JICA, the following issues on business aspects and directions
for their improvement are described:

Table 1-6 General Issues and Directions for Improvement of Industries in Nairobi City
General Issues Directions for Improvement
(i) Industrial structure
Lack of competitive Skill levels vary a lot. The informal light Nairobi needs a larger number of highly
skills manufacturing (Jua Kali) is yet to improve skilled and specialized small enterprises.
their product quality, therefore they cannot Improve the skills mainly through business
maintain the market share. linkages and by responding to market
needs.
High cost structure Extra costs are incurred due to costly Improve efficiency of the economic system
power, traffic congestion, and insecurity in including efficiency of labour,
addition to not-so-low labour costs. infrastructure, and utilities.
Lack of linkages Due to mismatch of quality, costs, etc, Deepen inter-business linkages as well as
inter-business linkages are weak. Line linkages with major buyers such as
agencies and the NCC should directly or government organizations and
indirectly support businesses of various supermarkets.
sizes.
Weak competitiveness Freer importation including in-flow of Overall efforts to strengthen
counterfeits is dominating the market and competitiveness and to find areas with
destroying local businesses. relative advantages, so that protectionism is
not necessary.
(ii) Basic and socio-economic conditions
Lack of available land Given the current land use and Efficient land use at select locations and
transportation conditions, the land in relocation of space-intensive functions to
Nairobi appears to be mostly saturated, the environs. Open up new spaces for
although a lot of spaces are underutilized. various business activities by such means as
vertical mixed use.

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General Issues Directions for Improvement


Lack of public safety Lack of safety and its reputation are A full set of measures ranging from
destroying Kenya's tourism potential. It immediate countermeasures to longer-term
also incurs extra costs and impedes many socio-economic bottom-up strategies.
business activities.
(iii) Infrastructure
Traffic congestion Traffic congestion wastes a huge amount A full set of measures ranging from
of time cost and fuel cost, deteriorating immediate countermeasures including traffic
Kenya's business climate. management by ICT to longer-term
structural measures such as shift to
multi-centric urban structure.
Unreliable and costly Unreliable power supply necessitates Power development can be regarded as a
power supply generators of each business incurring private business opportunity as PPP.
additional investment and operation costs. Develop new large and small energy sources
and optimize energy operation.
Insufficient waste Coupled with lack of public safety, wastes Clean Nairobi campaign linked with safe
management service has invaded many potentially attractive tourism development.
streets.
(iv) Institutional system
Lack of finance Small enterprises in need of financial Open up various financial channels at
support such as ICT entrepreneurs have various levels ranging from integration of
difficulties in obtaining loans with concern loan provision and consulting services for
about unpredictable outcome. micro, small and medium enterprises
(MSMEs) to PPP schemes for larger
enterprises.
Inefficient "An Investment Guide to Kenya" (2012) Improve the Doing Business Rank by
administrative points out that investors may face delays of efficient administrative, tax, and custom
procedure refunds of VAT, withholding taxes, and procedures, and also smooth inter-agency
customs clearance. Doing Business Rank collaboration to support businesses. NCC
of Kenya in 2013 is 121 in 185 economies. can play expanded roles in an efficient way.
Source: The Project on Integrated Urban Development Master Plan for the City of Nairobi in the Republic of Kenya
(JICA, 2014)

As mentioned in the above, Nairobi City has economically and demographically grown
rapidly in recent years. Therefore, the growth of aviation demand and increasing of further business
opportunities related with air transport can be expected in Nairobi. Especially, air traffic is the main
transport mode for tourism. Kenya has a high potential for tourism, and tourism movements in
Kenya is made based in Nairobi City. Therefore, the importance of the aviation sector in Nairobi will
be higher and higher.

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1.3.2 Airports in Nairobi City


(1) Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA)
Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) is the capital airport in Kenya located at around
18 km south from the center of Nairobi City. The number of annual passenger in 2015 was around
6.80 million, and the number of annual aircraft movements was around 0.1 million. The outline of
JKIA is shown in Figure 1-10.

Figure 1-10 Outline of JKIA

Name : Jomo Kenyatta International Airport(NBO/HKJK) 1958 : Opened.


Type : Joint (Civil and Military) 1978 : Further expansion (new Passenger Terminal Building(2.5 mppa), Cargo Terminal
Elevation : 1,624m Building, new Taxiway, police and fire station, access road) by World bank’s fund
Distance : 18km to Nairobi downtown (Opened in 1978)
Runway : 06/24 4,117m X 45m (Asphalt) ILS(YES) 2013 : Fire destroys central international arrival building
Statistics : Movement 87,337 (2010, ACI) 2015 : Open new temporary passenger terminal building (T2) (2.5 mppa, with 10-year
(Annual) Passenger 5,485,771 (2010, ACI) design life), Open T1A Departure (Capacity 2.5 mppa)
Cargo 229,850 (2010, ACI) 2016 : Open T1A Arrival and TIE Arrival
Detailed design of the 2nd Runway in progress (funded by AfDB)

Termianl 1 Termimal 2

Source: Prepared by the Study Team based on Google Earth

The ratio of flights to and from JKIA by destination is shown in Figure 1-11. Most of the
international flights in JKIA are to African countries. The ratio of international flights for Europe and
Middle East is second to that for African destinations. The flights for Asia are fewer and currently
there are no flights to North and South America. In addition, the number of cargo flights are low.

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Figure 1-11 Ratio of Flights and seats to and from JKIA by Destination
Domestic Movement Total Movement International Movement
by Destination by Destination

Domestic Seat Capacity Total Seat Capacity International Seat Capacity


by Destination by Destination

Source: Study Team

The ratio of flights to and from JKIA by airlines is shown Figure 1-12. Over half of the
international flights in JKIA are by Kenya Airways; introduction of foreign airlines has not been
conducted successfully.

Figure 1-12 Ratio of Flights and Seats to and from JKIA by Airline
Domestic Movement
by Passenger Airline by Passenger Airline
Qatar
Airways
Emirates Others
3%
3% 19%
RwandAir Kenya
4% Airways
Precision 59%
Air Ethiopian
7% Airlines
5%

International Seat Capacity


by Passenger Airline

Source: Study Team

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

(2) Wilson Airport


Wilson Airport is a small-scale airport located at 3-4 km south from the center of Nairobi
City. Flights operated from Wilson Airport are mainly by small size aircrafts for emergency
operation, government function, agricultural, training school, and charter flight (tourism). Some
international flights are also operated. The annual passenger throughput is around 0.33 million and
the number of annual aircraft movements is around 89,000.
The Study Team have got information about Wilson Airport as follows;
Q Wilson Airport has faced the problem of congestion
Q Master plan updated was conducted in 2015
Q Expansion to the south area has been planned
Q KAA has negotiated with University of Nairobi for 50 acre of land acquisition to the
south for establishment of hanger and more apron area for aircraft parking
Q A new terminal building to be established the north for centralized passenger
processing has been planned
Q A business park to be established to centralized landside operation located within
separate/individual small inefficient premises has been planned
The outline of Wilson Airport is shown in Figure 1-13.

Figure 1-13 Outline of Wilson Airport

Type: Civil Opened in 1933


Elevation: 1,690m Expansion is difficult due to lack of space change to rapid urbanization.
Runway: 07/25 1,462m X 22m (Asphalt) ILS(NO)
14/32 1,540m X 23m (Asphalt) ILS(NO)

Source: Prepared by the Study Team based on Google Earth

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Photo 1-1 Overview of Wilson Airport Photo 1-2 Aircraft Parking Apron

Source: Study Team Source: Study Team


Photo 1-3 Situation of Departure Area of Photo 1-4 Air Traffic Control Tower
Passenger Terminal Building

Source: Study Team Source: Study Team

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Chapter 2

Survey Method
Table of Contents

Chapter 2 Survey Method ................................................................................................. 2-1


2.1 Objectives of Survey ...................................................................................................... 2-1
2.2 Survey Area ..................................................................................................................... 2-1
2.3 Scope of Survey ............................................................................................................. 2-2
2.3.1 Basic Policy of the Survey ............................................................................................ 2-2
2.3.2 Contents of the Survey .................................................................................................. 2-2
2.3.3 Steps of the Survey ........................................................................................................ 2-3
2.4 Survey Schedule and Organization ............................................................................. 2-4
2.4.1 Survey Schedule ............................................................................................................ 2-4
2.4.2 Survey Organization ...................................................................................................... 2-4
Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Chapter 2 Survey Method


2.1 Objectives of Survey
The survey was carried out by the Survey Team based on discussions with Kenyan Government and
other related authorities to establish a plan for the New Terminal Development Project in JKIA,
which includes such studies as Air traffic demand forecast, Conceptual design, Cost estimation,
Project scheme and Environmental and Social considerations. In addition, the Project is proposed
to be formulated as a candidate of yen-loan (ODA) agreement as an option to introduce Japanese
advanced technologies in it with “an Eco-airport” concept.

2.2 Survey Area

Fig. 2-1 Survey Area

Source: prepared Study Team based on Google Earth

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

2.3 Scope of Survey


2.3.1 Basic Policy of the Survey
Basic policy of Survey is as follows.
(1) To review the latest Master Plan (2011 M/P), based on the current situation (status of airport
statistics data, terminal buildings, facilities and on-going projects and so on) of JKIA.
(2) To establish the development and rehabilitation plans for a new passenger terminal building
(PTB) and the related facilities, position JKIA as an international hub airport.
(3) To examine business scheme and contents (facility specification, construction method, etc.),
which can showcase Japanese and the other international advanced technologies.
(4) To determine other facilitating infrastructure to support operations within the airport, e.g.
ground access, car parking, utilities, etc.
(5) To recommend the most optimal location of the new PTB and other proposed development, e.g.
the special economy zone, airport city, green initiatives (in line with the Eco-airport concept),
etc.
(6) Base on the above, to determine the feasibility of the Project.

2.3.2 Contents of the Survey


Content of the survey is as follow.
(0) Preparation for study
To prepare an Inception Report which shows survey policy, plan and so on based on the prior
collected documents.
(1) Current Facility and master plan survey
To set the precondition for airport development plan with checking and reviewing the latest
master plan and the current facilities and their capacity.
(2) Airport facility requirement survey
To determine the aviation requirements based on the discussion with KAA and other
stakeholders.
(3) Air traffic demand forecast
To carry out air traffic demand forecast of JKIA as an international hub airport for East Africa
and beyond.
(4) Master plan review and update with specific recommendations.
(5) Conceptual design and cost estimation
- To carry out the conceptual design for new PTB and related facilities.
- To estimate the construction cost based on the above conceptual design.
- To propose energy-saving facilities for an eco-airport.
(6) Business scheme and business plan

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

From the findings above, to examine a business scheme and evaluate a business feasibility
through economic and financial analysis.
(7) Environmental and social considerations
To establish a study for environmental and social considerations based on relevant Kenyan laws
and regulations.
(8) Project promotion
To discuss with Kenyan Government, related authorities and companies regarding proposed
airport development project plan in JKIA, based upon the outcome of the master plan review
and the feasibility study.
(9) Final report preparation
To make and submit a Draft Final Report and a Final Report to Kenyan Government and related
authorities.
Fig. 2-2 Contents of the Survey

Source: Study Team

2.3.3 Steps of the Survey


Steps of the survey were as follow.
(1) The First home work (13 Sep. 2016 - 14 Oct. 2016)
Based on relevant data and information, an Inception Report was prepared after analyzing the
current status of several projects in JKIA, which shows procedure of the survey and so on.
(2) The First field work (17 Oct. 2016 – 28 Oct 2016)
Pertinent data and information were collected diligently and views were exchanged with the
stakeholders, Kenyan authorities and companies such as MOTI&HUD, KAA, KQ, etc. These

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

data covered such areas as airport civil engineering, architectural design, air traffic demand
forecast, economic and financial analysis, construction planning and cost estimation.
(3) The second home work (31 Oct. 2016 – 13 Jan. 2017)
Based on the collected documents and data, air traffic demand forecast, conceptual design and
cost estimation of the new PTB and economic and financial analysis were carried out.
(4) The second field work (16 Jan. 2017 – 24 Jan. 2017)
Prepare, present and discuss results of the second home work on air traffic demand forecast,
conceptual design and economic and financial analysis.
(5) The third home work (23 Jan. 2017 – 28 Feb. 2017)
Prepare, present and issue a Final report of the survey to Kenyan authorities.

2.4 Survey Schedule and Organization


2.4.1 Survey Schedule
The survey period is from September 13, 2016 to February 28, 2017, and the detailed schedule is as
shown below.
Fig. 2-3 Schedule of the Survey

Source: Study Team

2.4.2 Survey Organization


Organization of the Survey Team is shown below.
The survey was carried out by the following 3 companies.
- JGC Corporation (Leader of the survey)
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation (Economic and Financial Analysis)
- Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. (Demand Forecast and Airport Plan)

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Chapter 3

Outline of the Project


and
Technical Feasibility
Table of Contents

Chapter 3 Outline of the Project and Technical Feasibility ...................................... 3-1


3.1 Current Situation and Problems at the Airport .................................................................. 3-1
3.1.1 History ...................................................................................................................... 3-1
3.1.2 Outline of Airport Facilities ...................................................................................... 3-2
3.1.3 Airport Civil Facility................................................................................................. 3-5
3.1.4 Passenger Terminal Buildings ................................................................................... 3-8
3.1.5 Utilities .................................................................................................................... 3-10
3.1.6 Landside Facilities .................................................................................................. 3-10
3.1.7 Air Navigation Facility ........................................................................................... 3-13
3.2 Basic Policy Regarding Project Component ................................................................... 3-14
3.2.1 Target Years for Airport Facilities Development..................................................... 3-14
3.2.2 Demand Forecast .................................................................................................... 3-15
3.2.3 Capacity of Airport Facilities of the Project............................................................ 3-22
3.2.4 Comparison with Existing Master Plan................................................................... 3-22
3.3 Necessary Technologies to be Considered for the Project .............................................. 3-23
3.3.1 Eco-Airport ............................................................................................................. 3-23
3.4 Outline of the Project ...................................................................................................... 3-27
3.4.1 Construction Plan .................................................................................................... 3-29
3.4.2 Cost Estimate .......................................................................................................... 3-30
3.4.3 Necessary Consideration for Future Plan ................................................................ 3-31
3.5 Effect of the Project on Stable Supply of Energy Sources to Japan................................ 3-32
3.5.1 Energy Situations in Japan and Kenya .................................................................... 3-32
3.5.2 Effect on Stable Supply of Energy Sources ............................................................ 3-33

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Chapter 3 Outline of the Project and Technical Feasibility


3.1 Current Situation and Problems at the Airport
3.1.1 History
(1) Kenya National Airports System Plan
The Kenya National Airports System Plan (hereinafter referred to as 2011 M/P) was
conducted from 2008 to 2010 by Louis Berger Group (LBG) and Runji & Partners for all Kenyan
airports toward the target year 2030 as integrated development of the airport sector. The plan
consists of 11 volumes as follows:

Q Volume 1: National Airports System Plan


Q Volume 2: Master Plan of the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport
Q Volume 3: Master Plan of the Mombasa International Airport
Q Volume 4: Master Plan of the Eldoret International Airport
Q Volume 5: Master Plan of the Kisumu Airport
Q Volume 6: Master Plan of the Ukunda Airport
Q Volume 7: Master Plan of the Malindi Airport
Q Volume 8: Master Plan of the Lamu Airport
Q Volume 9: Master Plan of the Lokichogio Airport
Q Volume 10: Master Plan of the Wajir Airport
Q Volume 11: Master Plan of the Wilson Airport

The addendum of the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) was studied in 2011 to
consider the development plan of Kenya airports.

(2) Current Airport Development Project


From the issuance of the 2011 M/P up to now, Kenya’s political, economic, and social
situation has changed drastically highlighted by the Kenyan presidential election and a terror attack
in a shopping center.
Therefore, the Kenya Airports Authority (KAA) tried to modify the airport development
plan. Particularly, the fire accident on the arrival passenger terminal building in 2013 had a big
effect that KAA implemented the following projects mainly at the existing passenger terminal
building:

Q Pavement improvement (runway, taxiway, and apron);


Q Existing passenger terminal building improvement;
Q New passenger terminal building plan; and
Q Second runway plan.

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3.1.2 Outline of Airport Facilities


The outline of airport facilities and plan of the aerodrome are illustrated in Table 3-1, Table
3-2, and Source: Study Team.

Table 3-1 Existing Facility of JKIA (1)


Item Name Description
Principal Name Jomo Kenyatta International Airport
Feature International/Domestic International and domestic
Code ICAO: HKJK IATA: NBO
Location Lat: 01.19.09.267
Long: 36.55.39.992E
Access to airport 18 km from downtown of Nairobi, approximately 40
min by bus or taxi
Reference ground elevation 1624.5 m
Temperature 21 ºC
Operation 24 h
Operator Airport facility: KAA
Navigation facility: KCAA
Taxiway Direction 06/ 24
Length x width 4,117 m × 45 m
Pavement strength PCN 65/F/A/W/T, Asphalt Concrete
Inclination Average 0.35%
Clearway (CWY) 340 m (both ends of runway)
Runway Strip 4,361×300 m
TORA/ TODA/ ASDA/ LDA 4,117 m/ 4,457 m/ 4,178 m/ 4,117 m
Taxiway Length Exit Taxiway: 7
Width 23 m
Strength PCN 65/F/A/W/T
Aircraft Parking spot Apron 1: 17
Parking Apron Apron 2: 9
Apron 3: 10
Helipad: 1
Pavement Strength PCN 65/F/A/W/T Asphalt Concrete
Source: AIP

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Table 3-2 Existing Facility of JKIA (2)


Item Name Description
International Capacity/floor area Annual pax handling capacity: 7.5 million (T1+T2)
Passenger Terminal concept 1.5 stories pier (T1A), 1 story front linear (T1B, C, D)
Terminal
Passenger processing 1 story arrival building (T1E)
Floor concept 1 story remote gate (T2)
Baggage handling T1A: 5 belts, TIE: 5 bests, T2: 2 belts
equipment
Passenger Restaurant, banks, shops
amenity/service
Cargo Capacity/floor area Annual cargo handling volume: 240,000 tons(2015)/
Terminal Kenya Airways Cargo, Swissport, Africa Flight Services,
Siginon
Cargo handling system Incoming and outgoing cargo handled in individual spaces
Handling Company Swissport
Services Fuel AVGAS 100LL-KER (JET A1) 100/120, JETA1
Ground Service Vehicles Ladder car, electric power unit, small tractor, fuel servicer
Support
Equipment
(GSE)
Car Park Capacity Approximately 1,000 (multi-storey)
Ancillary Perimeter fence Entrance of airport boundary security check: 16 gates
Facilities Perimeter fence Chain-link fence
Utility Distribution by Kenya Power, power receiving center
(66,000 VA 2 Circuit), emergency generators (3.4 MVA)、
city water supply system by Nairobi Water, garbage and
sewage collected by Nairobi City Council
Air Navigation ILS, LLZ, Glide path, Middle marker, Outer marker,
DVOR/ DME,VHF A/G
Air Field APCH (06: PALS, 24: SIAL), THR (06/ 24 Green), PAPI (06: / 24 Left aisle of
Lighting RWY) RWY edge (06/ 24: Approximately 7.5 m form RWY edge), RWY End (R/W
06/ 24)Aerodrome beacon, Apron light
Source: AIP

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Figure 3-1 Layout Plan of Existing Facility

Source: Study Team

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

3.1.3 Airport Civil Facility


(1) Runway
The existing runway has a length of 4,117 m and width of 45 m and is paved with asphalt
concrete (without grooving). The existing runway surface was overlaid in 2016 and currently in
good condition based on a visible survey. The pavement strength is PCN 65/F/A/W/T according to
the Aerodrome Information Publication (AIP). The runway operation ratio by wind condition is more
than 90% in the 06 direction.
Figure 3-2 Airside Facility Layout

Source: AIP

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Photo 3-1 Runway Condition

Source: Study Team

(2) Taxiway
There are three different types of taxiway, i.e.: parallel taxiway which is connected to the
runway, four connect taxiways which link the runway, and aircraft parking apron. The pavement
strength (most of the aircrafts land at Runway 06 and take off at Runway 24) is PCN65/F/A/W/T.
These taxiways serve the apron for the existing terminal buildings and the freight buildings.
The center of the existing parking apron has a width of 22.5 m suited for B747 and two
narrow connection taxiways (10 m wide) for small aircrafts. The parallel taxiway length is around
3,000 m, although the runway length is more than 4,000 m. Therefore, there is a program that the
runway occupancy time becomes longer when a larger aircraft is landing. The 2011 M/P suggested
that it is necessary to expand the parallel taxiway length to as long as the runway and construct rapid
exit taxiway to reduce occupancy time.

(3) Parking Apron


There are three parking aprons as per the AIP, i.e.: Apron 1 in passenger terminals 1 and 2,
Apron 2 in the cargo terminal, and Apron 3 in the opposite side of the passenger terminal area
(Embakasi). Basically, the pavement type of the aircraft parking apron is cement concrete and that of
the taxing area is asphalt concrete. It is currently required to renovate to the rigid concrete pavement
instead of the previous interlocking block pavement type due to the aged and low performance
aircraft operation at the passenger terminal apron and the cargo apron. However, interlocking block
pavement type can still be seen in some areas. As per the AIP and site survey, the aircraft spot and
assignment are listed in Table 3-3.

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Figure 3-3 Aircraft Parking Apron Layout

Source: AIP

Table 3-3 Apron Assignment


Apron Name Spot Name Spot Assignment Remark
Apron 1 4 ~ 14 Code D x 1, Code E x 10
2A ~ 2C, 3A ~ 3C Code C x 6
G15 ~ G21 Code C x 2, Code D x 2, Code E x 3
J1 ~ J9 Code C x 4, Code E x 5
No specified name ① Code C x 10 Operation from 2015
No specified name ② 6 (not specified code) Expansion to No. 10 for future
plan
Apron 2 F1 ~ F9 Code E x 9 For cargo
Apron 3 1 ~ 10 10 (no specified code) For long stay parking
Source: KAA and AIP

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

The total number of aircraft parking spots is 68. According to the KAA staff interview
survey, there is shortage of aircraft parking apron spots due to the long stay and night stay of
aircrafts, and at least 40 aircrafts occupy the aircraft spots at night. Therefore, KAA is letting two
aircrafts park on a spot position or park in an open space not specified as an aircraft parking spot.
GFS personnel have transferred ~

Photo 3-2 Parking at Not Specified Area Photo 3-3 Two Aircrafts Parking at a Spot

Source: Study Team Source: Study Team

3.1.4 Passenger Terminal Buildings


(1) Overview
JKIA has two existing terminal buildings, namely, Terminal 1 (hereinafter referred to as T1)
and Terminal 2 (hereinafter referred to as T2). The T1 was constructed in March 1978 with a
capacity of 2.5 million passengers. It was divided into four blocks, namely: T1A, T1B, T1C, and
T1D, which are allocated to specific airline companies. The T1 building initially consisted of only
T1B, T1C, and T1D; and T1A was added in 2014 to form the present configuration. The T1A is used
exclusively by KLM and other Sky Team member airlines. The T1C is used for international flights
while T1D is for domestic flights. The T1A and T1D are used for both departures and arrivals
whereas T1B and T1C are for departures only. There is a temporary arrival terminal (T1E) to the
south of T1D, which is used by all international airlines except Sky Team members.
The T2 is a temporary terminal that opened in 2015 and used mostly by domestic and
international low-cost carriers.

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Figure 3-4 Terminal Area of Jomo Kenyatta International Airport

Cargo Area
T1

T1B T1C

T1A T1D

T1E
Chapter 3 Multi-
T2

storey
KAA Utility Center
parking

Source: Created by the Study Team based on Google Earth.

The KAA is in the process of renovating T1B,C & D to expand the floor area to 70,000 m2
and increase the handling capacity to about 8 million passengers (additional 3 million passengers)
with 14 permanent gates until 2017.
Airline companies assigned to each terminal block are shown in Table 3-4.

Table 3-4 Outline of Existing Passenger Terminal Buildings


Terminal Block Function Airlines Facility Outline
T1 T1A International departures/ Sky Team members: Three levels
arrivals Kenya Airways, KLM, China Southern Passenger handling capacity: 2.5 million
Airlines, Air Mauritius, Saudi Arabian passengers
Airlines, Precision Air, and Royal Air Check-in counters: 30
Maroc Departure gates: 12
Baggage carousel: 5
Baggage handling capacity: 640 bags per
hour
T1B International departures British Airways, Brussels, South Two levels
African Airways, Swiss International
Air Lines, Turkish Airlines, and
Emirates
T1C International departures Air Arabia, RwandAir, Qatar Airways, Common-use check-in system
Ethiopian Airlines, LAM Mozambique
Airlines, Lufthansa, EgyptAir, Saudi
Arabian Airlines, and Etihad Airways
T1D Domestic departures/ Kenya Airways, Jambojet, For domestic flights only
arrivals
T1E International arrivals British Airways, Emirates, Lufthansa, Prefabricated structure
Swiss, Ethiopia, South Africa, Qatar, Two levels
LAM Mozambique, Etihad, Air Arabia, Passenger handling capacity: 2.5 million
Turkish, Air Mauritius, EgyptAir, and Baggage carousels: 5
RwandAir
T2 International/ domestic Fly540, African Express Airways, Prefabricated structure
departures/ arrivals Fastjet, East African Safari Air, Opened in April 2015
Fly-SAX, and Jubba Airways Passenger handling capacity: 2.5 million
Check-in counters: 25
Source: Study Team

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3.1.5 Utilities
(1) Electricity
The existing substation facilities are situated within the utility center on the southwest side
of the terminals.
Electricity is supplied to the JKIA by Kenya Power and Lighting Company (KPLC) via two
66,000 V cables and is reduced to 1,100V at 14 substations. The present power consumption is 7.5
MW.
A non-utility generator system has two 2 MVA diesel generators installed in 2014, and one
each of 1 MVA and 1.4 MVA generators installed in 1970. Power outages occur frequently at a rate
of two to three times a week, and each lasting about three hours.

(2) Water Supply


Water from a public water supply system (Nairobi City Water) is fed to a 6,800 m3
underground water tank, from where it is pumped and distributed throughout JKIA. The airport
consumes 2,500 m3 of water per day, and about two days’ supply is stored in the tank. There is a 500
m3 elevated water tank, which is used when pumps are being inspected. There is a groundwater lift
pump as a backup; however, it is not normally used.

(3) Sewage Treatment


Wastewater generated in JKIA is discharged into the public sewage system at Ruai installed
by Nairobi City Water. Water plumbing is on the west side of the airport and connected with 525 mm
pipes. KAA constructed the sewage line between the airport and Ruai.

3.1.6 Landside Facilities


(1) Vehicle Parking
The vehicle parking in JKIA is shown in Figure 3-5. Each vehicle parking details are shown
in Table 3-5.

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Figure 3-5 Existing Vehicle Parking Location

Cargo Terminal
Passenger
Terminal 1A~D

Passenger Terminal
1E
(JKIA Staff Parking)

Multi Car Parking


Passenger
Terminal 2

Temporary
Parking

Source: Study Team

Table 3-5 Vehicle Parking Details


Parking Name Category Capacity Remark
Passenger Terminal 1 General vehicle 450 Including JKIA staff and registered
A to D Taxi 12
Bus 3
Passenger Terminal General vehicle 88 JKIA Staff Parking
1E Taxi 15
Bus 5
Multi-storey Car Park General vehicle 1,100 Original capacity is 1,500. Currently,
rooftop is used as office space.
Passenger Terminal 2 General vehicle 100
Taxi 6
Bus 2
Temporary Parking General vehicle 110
Taxi 120
Bus 20
Cargo Terminal General vehicle 300
Source: Study Team

The vehicle parking at T1 was located at curved arrival building before the fire incident in
2013. The multi-storey car park was used as temporary passenger terminal after the fire and KAA
built temporary and late permanent offices at the rooftop which is still closed for parking. In the near
future, KAA is in the process of restarting the multi-storey car park to solve the shortage of car
parking space. The total capacity of the multi-storey car park will be 1,100 due to the roof space
being taken up for office spaces.

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The temporary car park will be demolished to provide access road for the green field
passenger terminal project. The current car park has shortage of parking space. Also, the automatic
parking payment system is not yet installed causing frequent traffic jam.

Photo 3-4 Parking Area at Passenger Terminal


Photo 3-5 Multi-storey Car Park
1A to D

Source: Study Team Source: Study Team

Photo 3-7 Parking Area at Passenger Terminal2


Photo 3-6 Temporary Parking
(T2)

Source: Study Team Source: Study Team

(2) Airport Access Road


The existing airport access road is shown in Figure 3-6.

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Figure 3-6 Existing Airport Access Road

Security
Screening Gate

Bus Stop

Toll Station

Source: Study Team

The airport access road serves from Mombasa Road to JKIA’s T1, T2, and cargo terminal,
and other airport offices including KAA headquarters building. The monthly vehicle traffic is around
375,000, regular bus traffic is around 10,000, and other big trucks and trailers are around 9,000.
After Mombasa Road, there is a security screening gate as shown in Photo 3-8 to screen for
unauthorized objects inside vehicles and cargo trucks by X-ray. The security check is strict, and all
passengers besides the driver must get off to go through the metal detector. It takes around 10
minutes.
The 30 times daily bus services from Nairobi City to the airport are operated by three
companies, namely: City Shuttle, City Hoppa, and Double M. The location of the bus stop in front of
T1E is shown in Figure 3-6 and Photo 3-9. The bus departs to the city when full. Entrance fee is
charged according to vehicle type; traffic jams frequently occur at the toll station shown in Figure
3-6.

Photo 3-8 Security Check Gate Photo 3-9 Drop-off Area

Source: Study Team Source: Study Team

3.1.7 Air Navigation Facility


The Kenya Civil Aviation Authority (KCAA) manage and operates the air navigation
facility of JKIA. The air navigation facility shown in Table 3-6 is currently installed.

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Table 3-6 Major Air Navigation Facility of JKIA


Navigation Aid Aeronautical Lighting
Airport
VOR/ Approach Runway
ILS NDB HF VHF Surveillance PAPI
DME Light Light
Radar
CAT I PALS (20)
○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○
(06) SALS (06)
Source:Study Team
Figure 3-7 Aerodrome Beacon

Source:AIP

Currently, more than 90% of the approach direction is at 06; therefore, instrumental landing
system (ILS) such as ILS localizer, ILS glide path, and distance measuring equipment (DME) were
only installed at 06 side.
Major ILS locations are shown in Figure 3-8.

Figure 3-8 Location of ILS


Airport Surveillance Rader ILS (Glide Path/DME) ILS (Localizer) VOR/DME

Source: Study Team

3.2 Basic Policy Regarding Project Component


3.2.1 Target Years for Airport Facilities Development
The 2011 M/P is planned to be completed in 2030. The target year of this project is 2035
considering five years have passed since the 2011 M/P was conducted. The demand forecast will be
carried out based on the target year of domestic, international, and transit air traffics as shown below.

Q 2025: Completion of construction for the green field terminal project


Q 2035: Target year

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3.2.2 Demand Forecast


(1) Choice of Independent Variables for Forecasting Model
The air traffic forecast is estimated with a forecasting model, which is developed by
analyzing the correlation between indicators of economy and air traffic. Among many indicators, the
gross domestic product (GDP) of Kenya is judged as eligible to be an independent variable for all of
forecasting models the same as the LBG demand forecast policy. The GDP is not only an indicator of
the national economic situation and its value can also be more accurately forecasted since many
official entities show their perspectives of it. Other indicators might be applicable as independent
variables, but in the case of forecasting these values, the credibility is lower than that of GDP since
little sources for perspectives are available.

(2) Actual GDP of Kenya


In the analyses of forecasting model, the GDP of Kenya at a constant figure is introduced.
The annual value of GDP is shown in Table 3-7. The actual value of GDP is announced in 2016.

Table 3-7 GDP of Kenya as a Constant Figure (Base Year: 2016)


Real GDP Real GDP Real GDP Real GDP
Year Year Remarks
(KES 10 billion) (Growth Rate) (KES10 billion) (Growth Rate)
1996 1,938.86 1.0415 2008 2,772.02 1.0023
1997 1,946.83 1.0041 2009 2,863.69 1.0331
1998 2,004.89 1.0298 2010 3,104.30 1.0840
1999 2,048.98 1.0220 2011 3,294.03 1.0611
2000 2,056.09 1.0035 2012 3,444.07 1.0455
2001 2,137.90 1.0398 2013 3,640.16 1.0569
2002 2,148.20 1.0048 2014 3,834.25 1.0533
2003 2,211.54 1.0295 2015 4,050.85 1.0565
Forecasted
2004 2,314.05 1.0464 2020 5,503.55 1.0654
IMF
2005 2,445.13 1.0566 2021-2025 1.060 Forecasted by
2006 2,588.28 1.0585 2026-2030 1.055 MET team
2007 2,765.60 1.0685 2031-2035 1.050 based on IMF
Source: World Economic Outlook Database / Oct. 2016/IMF

(3) Air Traffic Data of JKIA


The air traffic data of JKIA until 2015 was collected from KAA as shown in Table 3-8.

Table 3-8 Air Traffic Data (1996 to 2015)


Year International Domestic Transit Total
1996 2,023,764 331,772 323,154 2,678,690
1997 1,935,134 361,890 253,948 2,550,972
1998 1,689,961 448,917 211,241 2,350,119
1999 1,907,407 546,079 214,731 2,668,217
2000 2,245,474 488,634 211,044 2,945,152
2001 2,274,540 506,942 186,941 2,968,423
2002 2,426,378 500,652 126,895 3,053,925
2003 2,706,067 606,503 138,544 3,451,114

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Year International Domestic Transit Total


2004 3,287,482 712,229 - 3,999,711
2005 2,706,601 629,326 903,020 4,238,947
2006 2,871,174 635,230 942,628 4,449,032
2007 3,060,469 850,085 951,152 4,861,706
2008 2,754,834 893,725 977,481 4,626,040
2009 2,727,911 940,380 1,004,404 4,672,695
2010 3,421,004 963,598 1,101,169 5,485,771
2011 3,526,958 1,054,185 1,091,395 5,672,538
2012 3,657,767 1,123,185 1,117,475 5,898,428
2013 3,828,724 1,213,363 1,151,560 6,193,646
2014 3,997,937 1,302,620 1,185,297 6,485,854
2015 4,186,775 1,402,230 1,222,947 6,811,951
Source: KAA

(4) Air Traffic Demand Forecast


The variation of passenger flow greatly depends on economic activities. The GDP elasticity
analysis on the demand forecast and passenger volume was performed in order to accurately estimate
the GDP growth rate in the future of Kenya. The demand forecasting value in a year is calculated by
multiplying the traffic growth rate of each year and actual traffic data. On the other hand, the traffic
growth rate (annual growth rate) is determined by the product of the real economic growth rate and
the GDP elasticity. The air traffic data provided by KAA has changed its trend since 2004; therefore,
two cases were studied, namely, 1996 to 2015 and 2005 to 2015. The result of the demand forecast is
shown below.

1) International Passengers
The following models are made by regression analyses with the actual number of
international passengers and GDP.

A. A log model with GDP as independent variable for 20 years (1996-2015)


International PAX= GDP of Kenya 1.0921 x 853.207
B. A log model with GDP as independent variable for 10 years (2005-2015)
International PAX= GDP of Kenya 0.8399 x 3,925.556
C. A standard linear model with GDP as independent variable for 20 years (1996-2015)
International PAX=1033.0121 x GDP of Kenya + 13,324.5
D. A standard linear model with GDP as independent variable for 10 years (2005-2015)
International PAX= 871.8276 x GDP of Kenya + 655,131.9

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Table 3-9 GDP Elasticity Analysis for International Passenger


A Log Model B Log Model C Linear Model D Linear Model
Period and Item
(1996-2015) (2005-2015) (1996-2015) (2005-2015)
Correlation 0.921 0.964 0.928 0.937
Coefficient of
0.849 0.930 0.861 0.878
Determination
Elasticity (Slope) 1.092 0.940 (1033.0) (871.8)
Evaluation Average Bad Average Good
Source: Study Team

The following are the result of the analysis of passenger demand:

・ Elasticity normally ranges from 1.0 to 2.0;


・ The elasticity of air traffic during initial stage is 1.5 to 2.0, which is high due to the
spread usage of aviation services and value of GDP growth rate;
・ In Kenya, elasticity must not constantly grow in the future and it is necessary to
consider that elasticity will gradually decline;
・ The country has a growing aviation market, so linear model gives near actual result;
and
・ Based on the correlation and coefficient of determination result as well as above
considerations, D is the highest evaluated.

According to the above analysis, the international passenger demand forecasts of 2025
and 2035 are shown in Table 3-10 and Figure 3-9.

Table 3-10 Result of International Passenger Forecast


(1,000/year)
Year 2015 (Actual) 2020 2025 2035
International Passengers 3,913,778 5,453,279 7,105,739 11,415,061
Source: Study Team
Figure 3-9 Transition Result of International Passenger Forecast

12
11 11,415,061
Terminal Passenger (Million Persons)

10
9
8 7,105,739

7
5,453,278
6
5
4
3 3,913,778

2
1
0

Year
Source: Study Team

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2) Domestic Passengers
The following models are made by regression analyses with the actual number of
domestic passengers and GDP.

A. A log model with GDP as an independent variable for 20 years (1996-2015)


Domestic PAX= GDP of Kenya 1.6833 x 1.263
B. A log model with GDP as an independent variable for 10 years (2005-2015)
Domestic PAX= GDP of Kenya 1.4694 x 7.064
C. A standard linear model with GDP as an independent variable for 20 years
(1996-2015)
Domestic PAX=459.8779 x GDP of Kenya − 460,666.4
D. A standard linear model with GDP as an independent variable for 10 years
(2005-2015)
Domestic PAX= 441.6448 x GDP of Kenya − 403,028.5

Table 3-11 GDP Elasticity Analysis for Domestic Passenger


(1,000/year)
A Log Model B Log Model C Linear Model D Linear Model
Period and Item
(1996-2015) (2005-2015) (1996-2015) (2005-2015)
Correlation 0.957 0.930 0.970 0.933
Coefficient of
0.917 0.866 0.940 0.871
Determination
Elasticity (Slope) 1.683 1.469 (459.8) (441.6)
Evaluation Average Average Good Average
Source: Study Team
The following are the result of the analysis of passenger demand:

・ Elasticity normally ranges from 1.0 to 2.0;


・ The elasticity of air traffic during initial stage is 1.5 to 2.0, which is high due to the
spread usage of aviation services and value of GDP growth rate;
・ In Kenya, elasticity must not be near 2.0;
・ The country has a growing aviation market, so linear model gives near actual result;
and
・ Based on the correlation and coefficient of determination result as well as above
considerations, C is the highest evaluated.

According to the above analysis, the domestic passenger demand forecasts of 2025 and
2035 are shown in Table 3-12 and Figure 3-10.

Table 3-12 Result of Domestic Passenger Forecast


(1,000/year)
Year 2015 (Actual) 2020 2025 2035
Domestic Passengers 1,403,009 2,070,295 2,941,946 5,215,058
Source: Study Team

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Figure 3-10 Transition Result of Domestic Passenger Forecast


12
Terminal Passenger (Million Persons) 11
10
9
8
7
6 5,215,058

5
4
2,070,295
3
1,403,009
2
2,941,946
1
0

Year
Source: Study Team

3) Transit Passengers
The following models are made by regression analyses with the actual number of
transit passengers and GDP:

A. A log model with GDP as an independent variable for 20 years (1996-2015, excluding
2004))
Transit PAX= GDP of Kenya 2.9903 x 0.00003
B. A log model with GDP as an independent variable for 10 years (2005-2015, excluding
2004)
Transit PAX= GDP of Kenya 0.5473 x 12,996.111
C. A standard linear model with GDP as an independent variable for 20 years
(1996-2015, excluding 2004)
Transit PAX=569.3043 x GDP of Kenya − 830,521.128
D. A standard linear model with GDP as an independent variable for 10 years
(2005-2015, excluding 2004)
Transit PAX= 173.8215 x GDP of Kenya + 518,821.7

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Table 3-13 GDP Elasticity Analysis for Transit Passenger


A Log Model B Log Model C Linear Model D Linear Model
Period and Item
(1996-2015) (2005-2015) (1996-2015) (2005-2015)
Correlation 0.847 0.817 0.875 0.774
Coefficient of
0.717 0.667 0.766 0.598
Determination
Elasticity (Slope) 2.99 0.55 (569.3) (173.8)
Evaluation Bad Bad Average Good
Source: Study Team

The following are the result of the analysis of passenger demand:

・ Data trend before and after 2004 is quite different; and the one before 2004 has
low reliability; therefore, the analysis excludes the 2004 data;
・ Elasticity normally ranges from 1.0 to 2.0;
・ Elasticity of air traffic during initial stage is 1.5 to 2.0, which is high due to the
spread usage of aviation services and value of GDP growth rate;
・ The country has a growing aviation market, so linear model gives near actual
result; and
・ Based on the result of correlation and coefficient of determination, C is evaluated.

However, when considering that 1) passengers after 2005 range from 900,000 to
1,200,00 and 2) the growth rate is around 2.6%, C has high validity.

Table 3-14 Result of Transit Passenger Forecast


Year 2015 (Actual) 2020 2025 2035
Transit Passengers 1,163,638 1,475,457 1,804,918 2,664,093
Source: Study Team

Figure 3-11 Result of Transit Passenger Forecast


12
11
Terminal Passenger (Million Persons)

10
9
8
7
6
5
4
2,664,093
3 1,475,457
1,163,638
2
1 1,804,918

Year
Source: Study Team

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4) Total Passengers
The total numbers of international, domestic, and transit passengers are shown in Table
3-15 and Figure 3-12.

Table 3-15 Result of Passenger Forecast


Year 2015 (Actual) 2020 2025 2035
International Passengers 3,913,778 5,453,279 7,105,739 11,415,061
Domestic Passengers 1,403,009 2,070,295 2,941,946 5,215,058
Transit Passengers 1,163,638 1,475,457 1,804,918 2,664,093
Total Passengers 6,480,425 8,999,031 11,852,603 19,294,212
Source: Study Team
Figure 3-12 Result of Total Passenger Forecast
21
20
19,294,212
19
Terminal Passenger (Million Persons)

18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11 8,999,031
10 11,852,603
9 6,480,425
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

Year
Source: Study Team

5) Annual Traffic to Peak Traffic


In order to estimate the scale of various airport facilities, the annual demand estimated
above should be broken down to estimate the peak day or peak hour demand. Peak traffic is
estimated from the forecasted annual traffic and the peak ratios. The results are summarized in
Table 3-16.

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Table 3-16 Breakdown of Annual Passenger to Peak Traffic


Year 2015 2025 2035
Annual aircraft movements a) 68,766 60,636 96,073
*1
Internation Design day ratio b) 1 / 330
al Aircraft movements at design day c) (= a) / b) ) 209 184 291
flights Formula for peak hour ratio of aircraft movements d) International = 1.05 / c) + 0.114*2
Aircraft movements at peak hours ( c) x d) ) 25 23 35
Annual aircraft movements e) 31,494 47,185 82,113
Design day ratio f) 1 / 330*1
Domestic
Aircraft movements at design day g) (= e) / f) ) 96 143 249
flights
Formula for peak hour ratio of aircraft movements h) Domestic = 1.51 / g) + 0.115*2
Aircraft movements at peak hours ( g) x h) ) 13 17 24
*1) Peak day ratio is applied based on the Japanese standard value (following ICAO Standard).
*2) Aircraft movements at peak hour formula is applied based on the Japanese standard (following ICAO
Standard).
Source: Study Team

3.2.3 Capacity of Airport Facilities of the Project


Based on the result of the passenger demand forecast, the annual total passenger is 19.3
million at 2035.
Currently, JKIA has an ongoing improvement project of airport facility including passenger
terminal building T1A. According to KAA, the existing terminal building will have a total capacity
of 8.0 million annually at the completion of remodeling. Therefore, the proposed new passenger
terminal capacity is 11.5 million (19.3 – 8.0). The current T2 (2.5 million/ year) at the east side is not
included in the existing capacity due to short lifetime of around ten years.
3.2.4 Comparison with Existing Master Plan
(1) Demand Forecast
There are several demand forecast analysis regardless of validity until now. Figure 3-13
shows the eight case studies done. The one done by LBG is compared with the latest study
conducted by Egis in June 2014 as reference.

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Figure 3-13 Result of Total Passenger Forecast


40
Millions

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
2011 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2034

INECO, 2003 NASP, 2008 KAA/LBG KAA/LBG


Original, 2012 02 KQ, 2012
KAA/LBG EGIS, 2011 KQ, 2013 Egis avia, 2014
03, 2012
Source: Egis

Table 3-17 Comparison of Past Forecasts


Year Actual LBG 2012 Egis 2015 METI 2016
2011 5,672,538 6,849,034
2012 5,898,428 8,247,618
2015 6,811,951 10,473,259 6,413,255
2020 12,947,243 8,580,089 8,999,030
2025 15,973,790 10,880,122 11,852,604
2030 19,483,149 13,496,123 15,271,928
2034 16,018,974
2035 19,294,212
Source: Study Team

As mentioned above, LBG conducted the forecast from 2012 to 2030 using the air traffic
data until 2010. Egis also conducted the forecast from 2015 to 2034 using the data until 2014. Since
both groups did not describe the detailed procedure and formula, comparison can be done based only
on the forecast results.
LBG and METI studies have almost similar trends (result) considering the five years
difference, i.e., 2030 forecast for LBG and 2035 forecast for METI. On the other hand, Egis and the
Study Team has about 400,000 passengers difference by the same manner of comparison.

3.3 Necessary Technologies to be Considered for the Project


3.3.1 Eco-Airport
(1) Overview
In August 2003, the Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
(MLIT) established the “Eco-Airport Guidelines (1st edition)” to provide a basic structure for energy
conservation, recycling, and other environmentally-conscious endeavors in airports to mitigate
environmental impact resulting from the operations of airports. In response to the recent changes in

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environment-related affairs and situations, the Guidelines were revised in March 2006 and revised
again as the 3rd edition in March 2014 by adding measures to meet the CO2 reduction targets and
promoting the use of renewable energy sources.
The basic concept of the “Eco-Airport Guidelines (3rd edition)” is shown in Table 3-18.

Table 3-18 Basic Concept of the Eco-Airport Guidelines


・ Environmentally-friendly airport (Eco-Airport) concept is as follows:
1) Is built with a global environment perspective in mind,
2) Coexists with the regional environment, and
3) Is sustainable and contributes to the formation of a society that is low carbon,
recycles, and lives in harmony with nature.
・ Accordingly, airport administrators and concession operators shall engage in activities
within the airport in compliance with the applicable environmental standards and by
actively promoting environmentally-responsible practices such as energy conservation,
3Rs (reduce, reuse, and recycle), and creation of a bio-diverse environment.
Source: Eco-Airport Guidelines (March 2014)

The Eco-Airport Guidelines provide policy and measures for the construction of airport
facilities, as well as their operations and administration.

(2) Technologies to be Considered for the Project


The possible technologies that can be introduced to the Project based on the Eco-Airport
Guidelines are outlined in Table 3-19. While not all of these technologies will be adopted by the
Project, they are considered for future reference.

Table 3-19 Possible Technologies for this Project


No. Applicable Field Proposed Technology Specific Approaches
1 Renewable energy Solar power generation Installation of a solar power system within JKIA to generate power for its own
source use and sell excess power to the national grid, which is allowed under the feed-in
tariff (FIT) policy adopted by the Kenyan government and will reduce CO2
emissions.
Solar panels will be installed on the rooftop and exterior walls of the terminal
structures to generate electricity. This technology can harness unused energy to
reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions, and is especially effective in
regions with high solar irradiance.
2 Geothermal power Due to Kenya’s abundant geothermal resources, binary cycle power generation is
generation now being considered.
Kenya’s largest geothermal power stations are situated in Olkaria, and Japanese
companies are deeply involved in their construction. Utilizing power generated
by these geothermal stations will reduce CO2 emissions.
3 Heat pump system Heat pump uses the earth or aquifer as a heat sink during hot months and as a
(using geothermal heat source during cold months. As it reduces the need for producing heat or
energy) cold for freezers, boilers, and heat transfer media, their capacities can be
decreased, leading to reduction in energy consumption.
4 Logistics Streamlining of cargo Aims to reduce energy consumption by streamlining operations by implementing
terminal operations inventory control and in-house logistics.
5 System optimization Big Date and Security Aims to enhance the convenience, safety, and environmental - friendliness of the
(BDS) / Internet of airport by adopting IoT.
Things (IoT)
Referential examples:

Aviation fuel
・ Use of IoT to check the fuel level when needed for efficient refueling.

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No. Applicable Field Proposed Technology Specific Approaches


・ Efficient use of renewable energy sources

Security
・ Management of faces, fingerprints, and movements for enhancing
security, inspection system with odor sensor (in lieu of police dogs), and
theft protection using tags.

Other
・ Management of tenants’ sales
6 Design optimization Application of Demand forecast
cutting-edge ・ Forecasts future demand accurately using Japanese analysis technology
technologies in the (from macroscopic perspective based on GDP and various economic
design stage of airport indices).

Flow line analysis


・ Optimizes the flows of goods and people as a design aid (flow line
simulation and congestion mitigation).
・ Further optimizes design by analyzing the flows of aircraft inside the
airport.

Building Information Modeling (BIM)


・ Efficient design by utilizing spatial information (3D data).
7 Quake protection / Advanced Japanese technologies for vibration control and disaster prevention
seismic isolation ・ Seismic isolation: the latest system to optimally control earthquake
motions based on seismic waves measured by sensors
8 Improvement of Human resource development and administrative work enhancement based on
airport Japanese airport administration techniques and know-how.
administration
9 Environmental Greening Systematic planting and growing of plants on the rooftop, exterior walls, and
considerations for inside the terminal building and other structures will enhance the environment
surrounding areas and improve energy efficiency. Plants absorb CO2, bring comfort, purify air, and
improve thermal insulation of buildings thereby reducing energy consumption.
10 Energy conservation Cogeneration system Constantly generates electricity within the site to supply power while recovering
waste heat (cooling water or exhaust gas) from the generator engine or turbine
for use as heat source for cooling/heating rooms and supplying hot water. Its
high overall efficiency (70 – 80%) will lead to energy saving, smaller substation
facilities, and reduction in contract power demand and energy cost.
11 Inverter drive Controls air flow or temperature of water with an inverter-driven HVAC fan or
cooling/heating pump for high efficiency operation. It can eliminate waste in
energy consumption and reduce CO2 emissions.
12 Reduction of thermal Loads on HVAC system can be reduced by adding insulation to exterior walls
loads on buildings and roofs and improving air-tightness and thermal performance of doors and
windows by sealing gaps and cracks and applying heat reflective film or paint to
control and block sunlight. Because of reduced heating/cooling loads, related
freezer, boiler, and heat transfer media can be of smaller capacities, leading to
the reduction in energy consumption throughout the life cycle of the building.
13 Passive system Lights and ventilates the passenger terminal and aircraft maintenance facilities
with natural lighting and natural ventilation by using outside air movement and
pressure differences (natural lighting, natural ventilation, non-powered
equipment, and natural-ventilation cooling tower). Use of natural light and
ventilation will reduce the consumption of electricity for lighting and motor
power.
14 Room temperature Optimizes the temperature setting of heated/cooled rooms by seeking balance
optimization between energy efficiency and comfort. It also minimizes energy consumption
while satisfying the demand side’s requirements for the temperature of hot/cold
water and the pressure of steam produced/supplied. Because of reduced
heating/cooling loads, related freezer, boiler, and heat transfer media can be of
smaller capacities, leading to the reduction in energy consumption throughout
the life cycle of the building.
15 Localized use Task ambient lighting, auto-off light control, and localized lighting and
air-conditioning of occupied zones within a large space of the terminal building
(zoning of space for lighting and air-conditioning) will reduce the consumption
of energy for lighting and air-conditioning.
16 Scheduled use Limits the time of use by motion-sensor light and scheduled lighting control that
turns off lights of office space during break time (scheduled lighting, auto on/off

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No. Applicable Field Proposed Technology Specific Approaches


(daylight sensor), motion sensor, and operation-time optimization of HVAC).
Energy consumption can be reduced by turning off lights and air-conditioners
either forcibly or by automatically detecting when they need to be turned on for
certain.
17 Renewable energy Wind power generation Installing wind-power generators on the rooftop of the structures and parking
source system garage in the terminal zone, as well as in the open space of the surrounding area,
will harness untapped energy to generate electricity and reduce energy
consumption and CO2 emissions. This will be especially effective in regions with
high average wind speed.
18 Heat pump system Seawater and river water are colder in summer and warmer in winter than
(using seawater, river outdoor air. Sewage water stays relatively warm during winter. This type of heat
water, or sewage pump uses these temperature differences for cooling in summer and for heating
water) in winter. Since it can recover thermal energy from untapped energy sources
inexpensively and efficiently, adoption of this system will reduce cost and CO2
emissions. Reduction in water consumption can also be expected where
municipal water is used as cooling water.
19 Heat pump system This system produces heat when it is most efficient and consumes it when
(using water or ice as needed. Typical examples are water-type and ice-type thermal storage systems
thermal storage) that produce chilled water or ice using the nighttime power for cooling during
the day. As they cut the peak demand, heat source devices can be operated with
smaller capacities and higher efficiencies at lower running cost due to the use of
nighttime power. These heat pumps have been adopted by the Chubu and Kansai
international airports, as well as Nagasaki, Okushiri, and Obihiro airports.
20 Recycling Use of rainwater Rainwater fallen on the buildings and ground within the site is collected, stored,
and minimally treated for use in flushing toilets, cooling tower, ambient water,
landscape, and other non-drinking purposes. This will reduce the use of
municipal water, easing the gap between supply and demand in regions where
water supply is scarce. It will also reduce the rainwater load on sewage systems.
21 Greywater reuse Excess water from cooling tower and discharge water from kitchen, toilet, and
system bathtub are treated properly for reuse as toilet flush, cleaning road surface, and
watering plants. This will reduce the use of municipal water, easing the gap
between supply and demand in regions where water supply is scarce. It will also
contribute to the preservation of water quality in rivers and other public water
systems.
22 Renewable energy Biomass energy system Collects gas or energy produced by fermenting food waste, human waste, and
source (biogas power other organic materials generated in the site. Liquid fertilizer from the process
generation) may be used for nurturing plants. Use of methane gas for power generation will
contribute to the mitigation of global warming.
23 Biomass utilization Composting of kitchen waste and food scraps for reuse will reduce discharge of
system (composting of organic waste and create a regional recycling system, in which food purchased
kitchen waste and food from the surrounding communities is returned to them as compost to preserve
scraps) the environment.
24 Waste heat recovering Generates power by recovering heat (thermal recycling) from waste incinerators,
power generation which is normally wasted in conventional systems. Recovered heat can also be
system (from utilized as heat source, and generated power may be sold to electric power
incinerators) companies, and factories in the surrounding communities.
25 Gasification power Waste is gasified and converted into fuel to generate power and melt ash to form
generation system slag. Certain types of furnaces can recover metals in an unoxidized state. The
system will make it possible to recover thermal energy and recycle metal and ash
materials that have been heretofore unused, buried, or disposed of. Unoxidized
metals are recyclable, and slag can be reused as aggregate in concrete work
within the site.

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

3.4 Outline of the Project


Based on the air traffic demand forecast, the outline of the Project is as follows:

Q Design Target Year: 2035


Q Life of Facilities for Design: 12 years
Q Design Capacity: 11,500,000 passengers annually
Q Scope of the Project
- New passenger terminal building with total floor area of 169,000 m2 (vehicular
parking and access road)
- New passenger terminal apron with total paved area of 533,000 m2, Contact gate:
32, Remote: 8
- New connection taxiways
Q Total Project Cost: USD 6.98 million (excluding VAT and so on)

Figure 3-14 Result of Air Traffic Demand Forecast and Relationship with Timing of
Project Implementation

26
2017 2023 2035
24
Terminal Passenger (Million Persons)

Corrent Start of Common Use Goal


22
20
6 years 12 years 19.3 Mil.
18 Preparation: 3 years Design
16 Construction: 3 years

14
12
10
10.6 Mill.
8
6
4
2
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Year
Source: Study Team

3-27
Scope of thi
Figure 3-15 Layout Plan of Future Development Plan

Planed Location
Scope offor New
this PTB
Study

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Source: KAA
Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

3.4.1 Construction Plan


(1) Topographical and Geological Condition of the Planned Area
The planned site of the new passenger
terminal building is situated in an area of almost Photo 3-10 Project Area
completely flat topography, although the surface
slopes run very gently towards the east and
northeast. The current situation of the site is mainly
the formed land after artificial excavation, and the
local is the original flat land. The vegetation is
mainly a small quantity of shrubs. The southern
side of the project area has a small stream of
rainwater drainage.
The excavated conditions which seem to
be done by another construction in some part.

Source: Study Team

Figure 3-16 Topographic Condition of the Planned Area of the Project

Source: KAA

Regarding the geology of this area, backfill soil and black cotton soil are found at the
surface of the land. However, they are not suitable to be utilized for construction works such as
foundation and filling material. On the other hand, phonolites soils are found uniformly, and they can

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

be used for construction uses. Therefore, it is mentioned that some sort of treatment is needed for
surface soil in the geotechnical investigation report in 2014 received from KAA.

3.4.2 Cost Estimate


Labor costs and local material costs collected by the Study Team were used. Costs and
prices of those not available in Kenya were estimated with reference to those of Japan. The same
goes true with regards the depreciation cost of construction equipment.
The cost is classified according to the following indicators of JICA:

Q Construction costs,
Q Contingency,
Q Consulting services,
Q Project management unit (PMU) cost,
Q Land acquisition cost,
Q Taxes, and
Q Interest during construction (IDC).

The cost is divided into local costs and foreign costs. The local costs are as follows:

Q Cost of construction materials in Kenya,


Q Wage of local labor, and
Q Indirect cost and profit of local contractor.

The foreign costs are as follows:

Q Cost of foreign-made construction material and equipment,


Q Lease cost of the imported construction equipment,
Q Cost of construction material and equipment produced at a factory in a foreign country
possessed by Kenya,
Q Wage of foreign labor, and
Q Indirect cost and profit of foreign constructor.

The rough construction cost for the Project is estimated as shown in Table 3-20.

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Table 3-20 Rough Construction Cost


Item Cost in USD (‘000)
1. Construction Cost 528,889
1-1 Civil Facility 129,595
1-2 Passenger Terminal Building 393,086
1-3 Utility Facility 6,208
2. Contingency (20%) 105,778
3. Consultant Fee (10%) 63,467
4. (1+2+3) 698,133
5. Administration Cost (PMU) 0
6. Land Acquisition 0
7. Taxes (VAT) 0
8. Project Cost 698,133
Source: Study Team

3.4.3 Necessary Consideration for Future Plan


The necessary considerations for the project planning regarding the construction plan and
cost estimation are shown as follows:

(1) Construction Plan


Q Because of the small stream at the southern side of the project area, consideration for
the diversion drainage system development plan is needed in case the project
construction area will include the stream.
Q Since the surface of the project site is mainly covered by soil which is not suitable as
construction material, consideration for the treatment plan of surface soil is needed.

(2) Cost Estimation


Q Survey for the procurement situation in Kenya such as construction equipment and
construction plant (quantity and unit rate).
Q Survey for the procurement possibility of construction equipment from other countries.

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

3.5 Effect of the Project on Stable Supply of Energy Sources to Japan


3.5.1 Energy Situations in Japan and Kenya
(1) Energy Situation in Japan
Purchase of energy sources accounts for 32% of the total import amount of Japan, whose
energy self-sufficiency rate is only 5% compared to those of the United States (75%) and Germany
(31%). Japan relies on imports for 90% of its primary energy sources, such as crude oil, natural gas,
and coal. In addition, after the Great East Japan Earthquake and the accident at the Fukushima
Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in March 2011, Japan’s energy situation changed dramatically and its
reliance rate on fossil fuels as energy source for power generation jumped from 60% to 90%. Most
of these fuels are imported via ocean carriers, which are facing security threats, as the issues of sea
pirates are becoming rampant recently in the Middle East, off the Somali coast, the Gulf of Aden, the
Strait of Malacca, and the Singapore Strait where most of the crude oil tankers heading for Japan
must pass through. Under these domestic and overseas circumstances, it is becoming a critical issue
for Japan to ensure stable supply of energy sources.

(2) Power Demand in Kenya


Power demand in Kenya has been increasing since 2004 along with economic development.
The peak demand rose from 899 MW in FY2004/2005 to 1,470 MW in FY2013/2014 and reached
1,512 MW in December 2014. It is projected to increase further to 3,400 MW in 2016 and 5,359
MW in 2018. To meet the growing demand, Kenya needs to increase its power generation capacity
by 5,000 MW to generate at least 6,600 MW in total by 2017. The annual output is also expected to
increase from 8,841 GWh in FY2013/20143 to 32,862 GWh in FY2016/2017. The peak demand in
2030 is estimated to be 18,000 MW while the power generation capacity in the same year will be
24,000 MW.

Table 3-21 Power Generation and Demand in Kenya


Power Generation Electricity Sales Peak Demand
Fiscal Year No. of Customers
(GWh) (GWh) (MW)
2004/05 5,347 4,379 899 735,144
2005/06 5,697 4,580 920 802,249
2006/07 6,169 5,065 987 924,329
2007/08 6,385 5,322 1,044 1,060,383
2008/09 6,489 5,432 1,072 1,267,198
2009/10 6,692 5,624 1,107 1,463,639
2010/11 7,303 6,123 1,194 1,753,348
2011/12 7,670 6,341 1,236 2,038,625
2012/13 8,087 6,581 1,354 2,330,962
2013/14 8,840 7,244 1,468 2,766,441
Source: National Energy and Petroleum Policy June 16, 2015, Ministry of Energy and Petroleum

(3) Power Generation Capacity and Cost in Kenya


As of October 2013, the total power generation capacity of Kenya is 1,664 MW, which is to
be increased to 5,000 – 6,762 MW by 2017. The country also intends to reduce its power generating
cost from USD 0.113 to USD 0.0741 by 2017, and the price of electricity for commercial and
residential customers from USD 0.1419 to USD 0.09 and from USD 0.1978 to USD 0.1045,
respectively.

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

(4) Energy Sources for Power Generation


As of the end of June 2015, renewable energy sources account for 68% of power generation
capacity in Kenya or 81.3% of the annual output.

Table 3-22 Installed Power Generation Capacity and Annual Output of Kenya
Installed Power Generation Annual Output
Power Generation Sources Capacity (December 2014) (2014/15)
(MW) % (GWh) %
Renewable Hydropower 821 37.8 3,466 36.8
energy Geothermal 593.5 27.3 4,060 43.1
Wind 25 1.2 37 0.4
Cogeneration 38 1.7 14 0.2
Import 79 0.8
Total 1,477.5 68.0 7,657 81.3
Fossil fuel Medium-speed
579.5 26.7 1,643 17.4
diesel
Gas turbine 60 2.8 4 0.0
High-speed diesel 25.8 1.2 36 0.4
Emergency plant 30 1.4 84 0.9
Total 695.3 32.0 1,767 18.7
Capacity/output of existing
2,173 9,424
sources
Source: National Energy and Petroleum Policy June 16, 2015, Ministry of Energy and Petroleum

3.5.2 Effect on Stable Supply of Energy Sources


(1) Possible Reduction in Power Consumption
If this Project does not adopt the eco-airport technologies, the estimated power demand of
the new terminal building will be 15 MW. It is projected that the adoption of the eco-airport
technologies will reduce energy consumption by 20% to 12 MW. The 3 MW difference will translate
into a 26 GWh savings on the annual consumption.
Assuming that a 2 MW solar power generating system using renewable energy will be
installed in the airport to supply part of its power demand, the annual output is estimated as follows.
The formula for calculating annual output is:

Ep = H × K × P × (365‐3) ÷ 1
= 5.0 × 0.73 × 2,000 × 362 ÷ 1≒2.6 (GWh/yr)

Where,
Ep = Estimated annual output (kWh/year)
H = Sunlight received by solar panel per day in yearly average: 5.0 (kWh/m2/day)
No. of days with no sunlight: 3 days
K = Loss factor: approximately 73%
・ Yearly average loss due to rise in temperature of solar cells: approximately 15%

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Preparatory Survey for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

・ Loss due to power conditioner: approximately 8%


・ Loss due to soling, etc. of cables and panels: approximately 7%
P = System capacity (kW)
No. of days per year: 365 – 3 = 362
1 = light intensity in normal conditions (kW/m2)

Combining the 26 GWh that can be reduced by introducing the energy-saving eco-airport
technologies with the 2.6 GWh to be generated by solar panels, an annual savings of approximately
29 GWh will be possible.

(2) Possible Reduction in Fuel Consumption


The 29 GWh reduction can be converted into a crude oil equivalent as follows:
For petroleum-based thermal power generation, 3.6 MJ of heat to generate 1 kWh of
electricity, 41,200 MJ per kℓ of crude oil, and a thermal efficiency of 37.2% are being assumed.

29 GWh = 29,000,000 kWh

Thermal energy needed to generate 29 GWh: 3.6 MJ × 29,000,000=104,400,000 MJ


Thermal efficiency of thermal power plant = 37.2%: 41,200 × 0.372 = 15,326 (MJ/kℓ)
104,400,000/15,326 = 6,812 kℓ

Therefore, 6,812 kℓ of crude oil can be saved per year (an equivalent of approximately JPY
300.04 million based on JPY 50,000 per 1 kℓ of crude oil).

(3) Effect on Japan


Kenya relies on fossil fuels for 18.7% of its energy sources for power generation. Based on
this figure, the Project will reduce the consumption of crude oil by 2,196 kℓ per year, contributing,
however small, to the reduction in crude oil demand in the international market, which could
consequently lower its cost. This will also contribute to the stable supply of energy sources to Japan,
which relies on fossil fuels for 90% of the energy sources for power generation.

3-34
Chapter 4

Environmental and Social


Considerations
Table of Contents
Chapter 3 Table of Contents

Chapter 4 Environmental and Social Considerations ............................................... 4-1


4.1 Analysis of Present Condition for Environmental and Social Considerations .................. 4-1
4.2 Outlines of Laws, Rules, and Regulations Related to Environmental and Social
Considerations in Kenya, and Necessary Action for the Requirements ........................................ 4-3
4.3 Matters to be Completed by Related Authorities Including the Implementing Agency to
Realize the Projects ....................................................................................................................... 4-5
4.4 Requests Related to Environmental and Social Considerations from the Implementing
Agency to the Japan Side .............................................................................................................. 4-6
Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Chapter 4 Environmental and Social Considerations

1
There was an existing development plan of proposed new Greenfield Terminal (hereinafter
referred to as GFT), of which the master plan was studied by the Louis Berger Group, Inc. in 2011
and the feasibility study was conducted by Pascall+Watson Architects Ltd. in 2012. Furthermore, the
environmental and social impact assessment (ESIA) had been done. In this chapter, the
environmental and social considerations of the proposed new passenger terminal building were
studied with reference to the ESIA of proposed GFT, and the necessary actions for realization of the
project were proposed.

4.1 Analysis of Present Condition for Environmental and Social Considerations


(1) Existing Studies and Environmental License
KAA had already conducted the ESIA for the proposed GFT, and the environmental license
had been issued by the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA). The license was
issued in August 2014, and expired in August 2016.
The present condition for the environmental and social considerations of the new passenger
terminal project was studied in this chapter with reference to two major existing reports of GFT’s
ESIA as listed below.

(2) Present Condition of Land Use around Project Area


JKIA is located at the southeast of Nairobi City and 10 km away from the city center. The
residential area, industrial area, and unused area are mixed around JKIA. The satellite image around
JKIA is shown in Figure 4-1 to illustrate the land use condition.
The airport area is bounded on the southwest by the Mombasa Road and on the northwest
by the Airport North Road - Eastern Bypass. Land developments are seen along both roads.
Residential areas with some remaining unused land are spreads at the northeast and southeast from
the airport area. The Nairobi National Park is in the southwest at the opposite side of the Mombasa
Road.
The existing facilities in the airport area are fenced, however, the fence around the proposed
project area is not complete, and thus allowing intrusion of wildlife, such as the giraffes. The
proposed area for development of new passenger terminal building was set at the center of the
airport area and is presently unused.

1
In 2012, KAA has appointed the Anhui Civil Engineering Group (ACEG) / China Aero-Technology
Engineering International Engineering Corporation (CATIC) Joint Venture (hereinafter referred to as
CATIC/ACEG JV) to design and build the new Greenfield Terminal (GFT).
Subsequently, Pascall+Watson Architects Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as PAW) has been appointed by the
CATIC/ACEG JV to carry out the architectural scheme design of the GFT and the Landside Interchange
and Forecourt (hereinafter referred to as LIF).
The Master Plan for the GFT has been carried out by LBG Consultants, which was retained as the project
manager. The site preparation work for the GFT commenced in December 2013. However, the project
was cancelled in March 2016 due to financial reasons.

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Fig. 4-1 Land Use around JKIA

Source: Prepared by the Survey Team using Google Earth

Picture 4-1 Proposed Project Area for New Passenger Terminal Building and Second Runway

Source: The Survey Team

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

4.2 Outlines of Laws, Rules, and Regulations Related to Environmental and Social
Considerations in Kenya, and Necessary Action for the Requirements
(1) Outlines of Relevant Environmental Laws, Rules, and Regulations in Kenya and
Necessity Action for the Requirements
1) Outlines of Relevant Environmental Laws, Rules, and Regulations in Kenya
The basic law on environment in Kenya is the Environmental Management and
Coordination Act (EMCA) enacted in 1999 and executed in 2000. Under the EMCA, detailed
enforcement regulations for pollution control were formulated such as for air pollution, water
contamination, waste and noise. Through the execution of the EMCA, it becomes a requirement
to attach an EIA prepared based on the EMCA when permit for usage of natural resource and/or
development are applied to the concerned authorities in charge of the usage of natural resources,
implementation of construction and/or construction of facilities. Based on the EMCA, the
Environmental Impact Assessment and Audit Regulation (EIAAR) was enacted in 2003. This
regulation stipulates the procedure for EIA and environmental audit (EA), and requirements for
acquisition of environmental license. In addition, strategic environmental assessment (SEA)
was legalized in this regulation in 2009.
The National Environment Council (NEC) as environmental management organization
and the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA) as executing agency were
established in 2003.

2) Necessity of Environmental License


The basic law related to environmental and social considerations is the aforementioned
EMCA. Second Schedule 2 to this act specifies projects of 15 fields that require environmental
license for implementation of the projects by undergoing environmental impact assessment
(EIA). Since the GFT project falls into “Transportation” in the 15 fields, the project is required
to get an environmental license.

3) Procedure for Environmental License


There are two cases to acquire the environmental license. Both cases are required to
submit a “Project Report” that describes contents of the project, the presence or absence of
impacts on environment and its degree.

a) Projects that Requires Only Project Report for Environmental License


If NEMA judges that the impacts caused by the project will be minor or non by
reviewing the Project Report, NEMA will issue the environmental license. Examination
period is within 45 days, including weekends, after the acceptance of the Project Report.

b) Projects Required to Conduct EIA Study and Prepare EIA Report for Environmental
License
If NEMA judges that the impacts caused by the project will be significant or not
small by reviewing the Project Report, NEMA will request the proponent to conduct an
EIA study. The proponent shall prepare the EIA report and submit it to NEMA for review.
Examination period is within three months, including weekends, after the acceptance of
the EIA report.

An Environmental Impact Assessment Expert certified by NEMA shall prepare the


Project Report and conduct EIA. Figure 4-2 shows the flow of the procedure to acquire
environmental license.

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Fig. 4-2 Flow Chart of Procedure for Acquiring Environmental License

Source: NEMA (2002), Environment Impact Assessment Guidelines and Administrative Procedures

4) Organizational Structure for Environmental Consideration


While supervisory authority for overall environment in Kenya is the Ministry of
Environment, Water and Natural Resources (MEWNR), NEMA under MEWNR is responsible
for environmental and social considerations and EIA.

Q National Environment Council (NEC): NEC is responsible for deciding the policy for
environmental protection and its priority. It is also responsible for setting national goals
and objectives related to environmental protection.
Q National Environment Management Authority (NEMA): NEMA was established as overall
coordinating agency for environmental protection in Kenya. Currently, based on the
“Constitution of Kenya 2010”, EMCA is being reviewed to address the issues on
environmental management that newly arises. In addition, NEMA is in the process of
delegating its responsibility to local authorities to conform to the Constitution of Kenya

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

2010. Some development projects in certain fields will be examined and issued the
environmental license by the local authorities, while NEMA still has responsibility for
issuing the environmental license for large-scale projects and coordinating with local
authorities for environmental management. In NEMA, there are five departments and one
branch office under the Directorate General, and 400 employees working therein.
Currently local offices oversee the review of EIAs and issuance of the environmental
license.
Q Public Complaints Committee: Under the EMCA, a Public Complaints Committee was
established to function as administrative mechanism related to environmental problems.
Members of the committee include representatives of the legal bar in Kenya, NGOs and
the business community. The committee investigates complaints related to environmental
devastation and deterioration.

5) Necessary Action for Requirements under the Relevant Law/Regulation of Environmental


Consideration
The environmental license for the development of proposed GFT was acquired in
August 2014 and then expired in August, 2016. Therefore, it is necessary to renew the
environmental license for development of proposed new passenger terminal.

(2) Necessary Action for Requirements under the Relevant Law/Regulation of Land
Acquisition and Involuntary Resettlement
Since the proposed new passenger terminal building is developed in the airport area, land
acquisition and involuntary resettlement is not required.

4.3 Matters to be Completed by Related Authorities Including the Implementing Agency to


Realize the Projects
(1) Renewal of Environmental License
Because the environmental license for the development of proposed GFT was expired in
August, 2016, it is necessary to renew the license. On the other hand, there is no stipulation in the
Environmental (Impact, Audit and Strategic Assessment) Regulations of 2009 regarding renewal of
the expired environmental license. According to the interview with NEMA, re-licensing process and
payment of the licensing fee are not required. Only simple procedure to update the contents of the
EIA report and payment of the renewal fee are required for renewal of the license because of the
following reasons:

Q The proposed new passenger terminal development project will be implemented within
JKIA boundary.
Q Environmental license was obtained and the licensing fee was paid once.

(2) Implementation of SEA


In the Environmental (Impact Assessment and Audit) Regulations enacted in 2003
(amended in 2009), Part VI section 43 mentions the process and content of a strategic environmental
assessment (SEA). In the master plan prepared by the Louis Berger Group as “National Airports
System Plan Vol. II, Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, Sep. 2010”, SEA was conducted and
summarized in Chapter 9. Even though the above regulation of 2009 was already developed at that
time, SEA rules had not been operated yet and permission for the SEA of JKIA was not granted by
NEMA. Therefore, KAA has acquired environmental licenses for individual development projects in
JKIA. However, it became difficult for NEMA to review the overall development plan of JKIA,

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

since individual development projects are all located in the airport area and several contents to be
considered in each EIA are overlapping.
Hence, NEMA has requested for KAA to conduct SEA for the overall development project
of JKIA first to acquire the permission, then to reacquire the environmental licenses for individual
projects. Prior to renewal of the environmental license for the proposed GFT development project,
KAA needs to review and consider SEA for the overall development project of JKIA and conduct
supplemental survey to acquire permission of SEA by NEMA.

(3) Satisfaction of JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations


If the Japanese government supports the Project, it is required that the ESIA report and
relevant documents meet the requirements of the JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social
Considerations (April 2010).
It was confirmed in this study by utilizing the checklist in the JICA Guidelines that there
were no major issues on environmental and social considerations of the proposed project. However
further study will be required such as about impact forecast of noise and mitigation measures for
noise.

4.4 Requests Related to Environmental and Social Considerations from the Implementing
Agency to the Japan Side
The implementing agency (KAA) requested the Japan side to include the items listed below
in the ESIA, by the letter of KAA/5/02/2 VOL. 5 (7). The next study in future should consider these
items as the study scope.
Q Water consumption/demand at the proposed new passenger terminal (during project
implementation and beyond 2035)
Q Waste management at the proposed new passenger terminal (during project
implementation and beyond 2035)
Q Land-use management plan around JKIA
Q Transfer of technology/extensive capacity building

4-6
Chapter 5

Financial and Economic Analysis


Table of Contents

Chapter 5 Financial and Economic Analysis.................................................................. 5-1

5.1 Project Cost Estimate .................................................................................................... 5-1


5.1.1 Assumptions.................................................................................................................... 5-1
5.1.2 CAPEX ............................................................................................................................. 5-3
5.2 Result of the preliminary financial and economic analysis ...................................... 5-3
5.2.1 Methodology.................................................................................................................... 5-4
5.2.2 Assumptions (Case-1: Japanese ODA loan (STEP)................................................. 5-4
5.2.3 Result of financial analysis............................................................................................ 5-7
5.2.4 Sensitivity analysis ......................................................................................................... 5-7
5.2.5 Study for PPP Scheme .................................................................................................. 5-8
Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Chapter 5 Financial and Economic Analysis


The objective of this chapter is to carry out financial evaluation of the new passenger terminal of the
JKIA.

The methodology of this evaluation is as follows:

(1) Conduct construction cost estimate for new passenger terminal with maximum 11.5 million
passengers / year.
(2) Conduct estimation for aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenues and associated OPEX to
operate the new passenger terminal thought the 30 years operation period. (2024~2053), and
generate cash flow model.
(3) Conduct a financial evaluation with using IRR to assess the financial feasibility and sensitivity
analysis in order to assess the upside and downside scenario
(4) Conduct financial evaluation under the PPP scheme in consideration of the direction of the
Government of Kenya to reduce external debt and also qualitative analysis to assess and
identify key issues regarding the PPP scheme

5.1 Project Cost Estimate


The content of the project cost is defined as follows:

(1) During Construction


Construction cost(CAPEX), Consultant fee and contingency.

(2) After operation commencement


It is assumed that following cost will incurred during operation period.
Labor cost, operation and maintenance cost, electricity cost, administration cost, interest,
depreciation and corporate tax.

5.1.1 Assumptions
The assumptions of the project cost are defined as follows:

(1) Capacity of the new passenger terminal: 11.5 million passengers /year

(2) Runway
Following runways is expected to be accessible during the operation.
1st Runway: Length 4.2 km, width 45m

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Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

2nd Runway: Length 5.5/5.6 km, width 60m

(3) CAPEX
The assumptions of the CAPEX are shown in Table 5-1 below:

Table 5-1 Assumptions of the CPAEX

US$
Code Works Quantity Unit
Rate Amount(thousand)
100 Civil Engineering Works 129,595
Airside
Commercial Apron 155 m2 572,000 88,660
Taxiways 155 m2 57,000 8,835
Taxiway Shoulder 75 m2 88,000 6,600
GSE Areas 100 m2 76,000 7,600
Landside
Vehicular Parking Areas 100 m2 123,000 12,300
PTB Access Road 100 m2 37,000 3,700
Airport Access Road 100 m2 19,000 1,900
200 Passenger Building Works 393,086
Basement (3011 m2) 1 Lot 7,527,500 9,664
Ground Floor (54748 m2) 1 Lot 73,912,000 94,887
First Floor (15376 m2) 1 Lot 38,440,000 49,349
Second Floor (53245 m2) 1 Lot 133,112,500 170,888
Special Equipment 1 Lot 19,638,332 25,211
BHS Outbound 1 Lot 13,422,000 17,231
BHS Inbound 1 Lot 2,141,000 2,749
Elevated Roadway 1 Lot 18,000,000 23,108
300 Utility Works 6,208
Power Receiving System 1 Lot 1,327,434 1,327
Power Supply System 1 Lot 823,009 823
Communication System 1 Lot 141,593 142
Water Supply System 1 Lot 508,396 508
Sewerage Treatment System 1 Lot 752,434 752
Solar Power System 1 Lot 2,654,867 2,655
400 Land Acquisition Costs

500 Compensation Works


Total 528,889

Project cost other than CAPEX is calculated as follows:


1) Contingency : CAPEX x 20%
2) Consultant fee : (CAPEX x Contingency) x 10%

(4) OPEX (During operation)


The assumptions of the OPEX are defined in Table 5-2 below:

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Table 5-2 Assumptions of the OPEX


No Item Assumption
1 Labor cost Calculate the unit labor cost based on JKIA budget 2016
and consider the inflation rate.
2 Operation and CAPEX x 1.0% with considering the inflation rate
maintenance cost
3 Electricity cost Tariff x Electricity demand
4 Administration cost No. 1~3 above ×15%(Based on current JKIA budget)
5 Interest 0.1%(STEP)
6 Depreciation 30 years straight years
7 Corporate Tax 30%

5.1.2 CAPEX
Following
Table 5-3 shows the CAPEX cost estimate.

Table 5-3 CAPEX

Item Cost USD (,000)


1.Construction cost 528,889
1-1 Civil works 129,595
1-2 Passenger Terminal Buiding 393,086
1-3 Utility facilities 6,208

2. Contingency (20%) 105,778

3.Consultant fee (10%) 63,467

4. (1+2+3) 698,133
5. Project management cost (KAA) 0
6. Land cost 0
7. Tax 0
8. Project Cost 698,133
9. Interset during construction 0
Total 698,133

5.2 Result of the preliminary financial and economic analysis

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5.2.1 Methodology
Financial assessment and analysis is conducted to calculate Internal Rate of Return (“IRR”) in
consideration of CAPEX, revenue, OPEX and interest which is required for the construct and
operation of the project.
In addition to above, sensitivity analysis is carried out focusing on the items such as revenue and
expenditure which is assumed to have a great impact on the project economics.

5.2.2 Assumptions (Case-1: Japanese ODA loan (STEP)


Following assumptions are used for the financial and economic assessment. The funding scheme is
based on Japanese ODA loan (STEP). This case is defined as Case-1 Japanese ODA loan (STEP).
On the other hand, the PPP scheme cases, which are described in 5.2.5 Study for PPP Scheme
below, are defined as follow: Case-2: Construction project (ODA STEP) + PPP (Concession to the
private sector for the terminal operation.
Case-3: Full private investment (PPP/BOT)

(1) CAPEX
Refer to 5.1.2 above.

(2) Loan assumptions


Assumptions shown in Table 5-4 are used for the loan calculation.

Table 5-4 Loan assumptions


Interest Rate(yearly) Repayment period Grace period
0.1%(STEP) 30 years 10 years

(3) Calculation period


Calculation period of the cash flow model is 1) construction period from 2020 to 2023 and 2)
operation period from 2024 to 2053 (30 years)

(4) PAX
Annual passenger forecast is based on following Table 5-5:

Table 5-5 Passenger forecast


2024 2035 2036∼
1)JKIA entire PAX

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International 6,740,611 11,415,061 11,953,057


Domestic 2,749,346 5,215,058 5,498,844
Transit 1,732,120 2,664,093 2,771,357
Total 11,222,076 19,294,212 20,223,259
2) PAX for New passenger terminal
International 433,720 6,682,010 6,797,132
Domestic 176,905 3,052,728 3,126,930
Transit 111,452 1,559,475 1,575,938
Total 722,076 11,294,212 11,500,000

Existing terminal is assumed to be utilized after the commencement of the new passenger
terminal operation. The maximum capacity of the existing terminal is estimated 10.5
million/year until 2024, and it would reduce to 8.0 million/year after 2025 due to the closure of
the T-2, so the new passenger terminal is supposed to absorb the surplus passenger of the
existing terminal. The new passenger terminal is expected to reach the full capacity on 2036
under the current assumption.

(5) Revenue
Revenue of the new passenger terminal is calculated as follows. The inflation of the revenue is
not considered

1) Aeronautical Revenue
ü Parking Charge = Number of parking aircraft(Total aircraft movement÷2)× unit rate
(weighted averaged)
Small size Middle size Large size
15/US$/time 40US$/time 90 US$/time

ü Passenger Service Charge:PAX ×Unit rate(US$/PAX) ÷2×85%(15% will be paid to


KCAA)
Domestic International
5.1 US$/PAX 42.5 US$/PAX

ü Air bridge fee = Unit rate (US$/PAX)×PAX


Unit rate is calculated based on the JKIA budget (2016) for the air bridge fee and
multiplied by PAX

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Unit Rate
0.19 US$/PAX

ü Fuel concession = Unit rate (US$/PAX)×PAX


Unit rate is calculated based on the JKIA budget (2016) for the air bridge fee and
multiplied by PAX
Unit Rate
0.39 US$/PAX

Landing charge is excluded from the revenue calculation, since it is expected not to
be paid to new passenger terminal directly.

2) Non-Aeronautical Revenue
Based on the JKIA budget, the non-aeronautical revenue will be account for 36% of the
aeronautical revenue (excluding landing charge).
The contents of the expected non-aeronautical revenue are tenant fee, catering service
charge, ground handling charge, advertisement fee, and car parking charge.

3) Summary of the revenue stream


Aeronautical revenue Non-aeronautical revenue
・Parking fee ・Tenant
・Passenger Service Charge ・Catering service charge
・Air bridge fee ・Ground handling charge
・Fuel Concession ・Advertisement fee
・Car parking charge

(6) OPEX (During operation)


OPEX are defined in Table 5-6 below:

Table 5-6 OPEX


No Item Assumption
1 Labor Cost Base Cost: 15,000US$/year-person(@2015) × 1,177
personnel (Max case) = Approx.18MM US$

Unit Rate: Calculate the unit labor cost based on JKIA


budget 2016 in consideration of the inflation rate.

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Number of personnel: Based on the current personnel


number, but regarding the security personnel, we assumed
that new passenger terminal can reduce 30% of the security
personnel by installation of the newly effective and efficient
security system.
2 Operation and Base Cost:6MM US$/ year
maintenance cost CAPEX x 1.0% with considering the inflation rate
3 Electricity cost Base Cost:18MM US$/year
0.2US$/kwh ×10MW
4 Administration cost No. 1~3 above ×15%(Based on current JKIA budget)
5 Interest 0.1%(STEP)
6 Depreciation 30 years straight years
7 Corporate Tax 30%

5.2.3 Result of financial analysis


IRR calculation is conducted with incorporating with assumptions set out in Table 5-6 above. As a
result, the IRR for the project is 6.0% which exceeds the interest rate substantially; therefore the
financial feasibility is confirmed for the implementation of the project.

5.2.4 Sensitivity analysis


Sensitivity analysis for the A) Upside case and B) Downside case is conducted with changing the
several assumptions shown in Table 5-7 below:

Table 5-7 Result of the sensitivity analysis


A) Upside case

a. PAX increase b. CAPEX c. OPEX a-c


(Economic growth + ) - 10% - 5% Combination
IRR 6.9% 6.6% 6.8% 8.5%
(Delta) (+0.9 %) (+0.6%) (+0.8%) (+2.5%)
B) Downside case
a. PAX decrease b. CAPEX c. OPEX a-c
(Economic growth - ) + 10% + 5% Combination
IRR 4.8% 5.4% 4.2% 2.0%
(Delta) (▲1.2%) (▲0.6%) (▲2.8%) (▲4.0%)

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5.2.5 Study for PPP Scheme


During the 1st on-site investigation, study team was requested from several Kenyan officials to carry
out the assessment under the PPP scheme.
In accordance with this request, following two potential PPP scheme were analyzed and evaluated.

Case 1. Construction project (ODA STEP) + PPP (Concession to the private sector for the terminal
operation.
Case 2. Full private investment (PPP/BOT)

Following assumptions shown in Table 5-8 are input to evaluate the case 1, 2 above.

Table 5-8 Assumption of the case study and results


Case 1 Case 2
ODA+PPP PPP/BOT
Loan conditions
・Debt/Equity Ratio 30/70%
・Repayment period 10 year
Same as ODA case
(Door to door)
・Interest rate 6%
Cost of Equity
・Equity Cost 20.0% 20.0%
・WACC N/A 15.8%
Concession Fee
Fixed fee CAPEX×10% N/A
(1 time on commencement
of operation)
Variable fee Revenue×10% Revenue×10%
Result
Project IRR 4.4 % 4.4 %
Equity IRR 17.9% 4.7%
NPV (MM US$) -8 -336
Accumulated Concession
627 557
Fee(MM US$)

Based on the result above, it is revealed that the case-3 is not commercially feasible, since the IRR is
far below both equity cost and WACC. Therefore, private firms are not able to make an investment

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decision under this scenario.

On the other hand, the IRR of the case-2 is lower than ODA case, however, IRR for the equity
shareholder is not far from the cost of equity and the KAA revenue through concession fee is
expected to reach certain amount for justifying this case. Therefore, this case could be feasible for
both private sector and public sector, since both parties will be able to enjoy certain benefit thought
the project. However, the detailed terms and condition should be carefully considered and studied
further in the next step.

For reference, the following matrix summarizes the features and the pro-cons for the considered
three cases.
Table 5-9 Outline of the respective cases

Case Scheme Finance Pros/Cons


Case1: ODA Normal case:1.4% ○ Low interest loan
ODA(STEP) ODA Bid STEP:0.1% △ No change from current operation formation
Construction Operation

KAA KAA
Case2: ODA Foncession
After construction by ○ Low interest loan
ODA(STEP) ODA Bid Bid
ODA, operator is ○Utilizing private know-how
+Concession Construction Operation
selected by concession △Demarcation between existing and new PTBs
bid and undertake
KAA SPF operation
Case3: PrivaPe・AfDB Private investment ○Private know-how (World-class operator)
Private(PPP/ PPP Bid AfDB loan:6% △Private Company’s intention for participation
BOT) Construction Operation
(Feasible or Not)
△Demarcation between existing and new PTBs
SPF SPF

The focus of this report is to investigate the feasibility of the new passenger terminal and assess both
technical and financial aspects. However, the demarcation between existing terminal and new
passenger terminal would be one of the most critical issues for successful development of JKIA.

Considering the situation above, there is another option for the concession scheme where the
concessionaire would operate both existing and new passenger terminal subject to the further
assessment and consideration of the Government of Kenya. It is expected that multi-operators for
one airport will force the JKIA to be put in a difficult situation to optimize the entire JKIA operation.
Therefore, one-operator for one airport is recommendable solution in order to avoid the scenario
above.

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Chapter 6

Project Implementation Schedule


Table of Contents

Chapter 6 Project Implementation Schedule .................................................................. 6-1


6.1 On-going Projects at JKIA............................................................................................. 6-1
6.1.1 Rehabilitation of the Existing R/W, T/W and Apron (Parallel Taxiway Expansion) 6-1
6.1.2 Rehabilitation of the Existing PTB (T1) ....................................................................... 6-1
6.1.3 Construction of the 2nd Runway ................................................................................... 6-2
6.1.4 Construction of the New PTB ....................................................................................... 6-2
6.2 Necessity of Detailed Master Plan (Revision of the Airport Master Plan) .............. 6-4
6.2.1 Hierarchies of Airport Master Plan ............................................................................... 6-4
6.2.2 Contents of Airport Master Plan ................................................................................... 6-5
6.2.3 JKIA Detailed Master Plan ............................................................................................ 6-6
6.3 Preconditions for Project Implementation Schedule ................................................. 6-6
6.3.1 Proposed scheme for finance and operation for the new PTB................................ 6-6
6.3.2 Pursuit of an eco-airport in the new PTB .................................................................... 6-7
6.3.3 Time limitation of each project based on the demand forecast ............................... 6-8
6.4 Project Implementation Schedule .............................................................................. 6-11
6.5 Future Action for the New PTB Construction ........................................................... 6-13
Pre-feasibility Study for New Terminal Development Project at JKIA in the Republic of Kenya

Chapter 6 Project Implementation Schedule


6.1 On-going Projects at JKIA
Four major projects for rehabilitation and newly construction are now carried out at JKIA as showed
in the figure below.
Fig. 6-1 Major On-going Projects at JKIA

Source: prepared by Study Team based on KAA Document

6.1.1 Rehabilitation of the Existing R/W, T/W and Apron (Parallel Taxiway Expansion)
The maintenance and necessary rehabilitation of the airport basic facilities in the air-side is the most
important elements which is very essential to the safe and stable take-off and landing of the aircraft.
At JKIA, the shorter parallel taxiway than the runway length and no rapid exiting taxiway cause it
longer occupancy time of the aircraft on the runway.
Kenya Airport Authority (KAA) is now planning to expand the parallel taxiway that is aiming at the
increase of the runway capacity as well as to shorten the time for aircraft movement between the
runway and the passenger terminal (Taxing time).

6.1.2 Rehabilitation of the Existing PTB (T1)


At JKIA, the entry formalities for some international passengers are operated in a temporary
terminal (T1-E) after the disappearance of the arrival lounge by the fire of August, 2013. (refer to
Fig. 6-2)
The rehabilitation of Existing PTB (T1) reviving the airport functions destroyed by the fire is also
intended to increase the passenger capacity, as well as is expected to improve the convenience and
the level of service to the passengers by the higher efficiency of the airport operation.

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The design of the rehabilitation is now planned to be carried out by Netherland NACO (Netherlands
Airport Consultants) by finance of the World Bank (WB), and the increase of the passenger capacity
by the rehabilitation is expected to be 3.0 million per annual. Therefore, the annual passenger
capacity of the Existing PTB (T1) becomes 8.0 million from the current capacity of 5.0 million.

Fig. 6-2 Current situation of the Existing PTB (T1)

Source: prepared by Study Team based on KAA Document

6.1.3 Construction of the 2nd Runway


The construction project of the 2nd runway aims at the reinforcement of stable take-off and landing
functions of the aircraft with two runways from the viewpoint of the runway maintenance, rather
than the increase in the runway capacity.
The detailed design of the 2nd runway construction is now carried out by French ADPi (Aéroports de
Paris) by finance of the AfDB (African Development Bank).

6.1.4 Construction of the New PTB


The annual passenger volume using JKIA was totally 6.8 million in 2015. In contrast, the annual
capacity of the existing PTB at JKIA is totally 7.5 million (T1: 5.0 million + T2: 2.5 million).
Based on the air traffic demand forecast described in Chapter 3, JKIA will fall into a lack state of the
passenger capacity in 2017. Therefore, the increase of the passenger capacity of JKIA by the new
PTB construction is a very urgent issue.

KAA is planning to reinforce the passenger capacity of JKIA, and aiming at the airport of the
world-class in passenger services to secure the firm position as a gateway to the East Africa, and also

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intending to establish a higher eco-airport with regard to the power supply circumstances in Kenya.

(1) Location of the new PTB (Alternative)


In this report, the new PTB is assumed to be built in the northeast direction of the existing PTB
(location of PTB (1) in the figure 6-3), that is based on an airport layout in the Airports Master Plan
issued in 2011. However, the other location where is in the southeast direction of the existing PTB
for the new PTB (location of PTB (2) in the figure 6-3) is also recommendable with some
advantages, when the proposed site has not already fixed and occupied by the other development
plans.
Fig. 6-3 Locations of the new passenger terminal at JKIA (Alternative)

Source: prepared by Study Team based on KAA Document

In case of the original PTB (1), the new PTB is built in the almost center in the airport site, and the
location is reasonable with the similar distances for the aircraft taxing from both of the existing and
the planned new runways. On the other hand, the movement distance for passenger between the
existing and the new PTBs becomes longer compared with the PTB (2). As a result, accessibility
led to passenger service might be lower especially for transit passengers.

In case of the alternative PTB (2), passenger’s movement distance between the existing and the new
PTBs becomes shorter, and the access distances from the airport entrance to both PTBs are almost
same, it is more convenience for passenger to come and find his check-in counter. And, the
distance between the new runway and the new PTB becomes shorter to save the taxing time. On
the other hand, the several facilities such as the cargo complex, commercial mall and so on

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positioned in the Airports Master Plan issued 2011 need to be relocated by the necessary
coordination with the relevant parties.

(2) Location of the cargo complex and Airport Layout (Plot Plan)
In case of the PTB (2) mentioned above, the location for the cargo complex planned in the Airport
Master Plan (CTB in the figure 6-3) might be relocated to the other place, or the shape of the new
PTB might be considered to change to rectangular type and so on for saving the space.
Necessary space for the new cargo complex have to be secured considering with the future
expansion, because the existing cargo complex is located in the southwest end of the airport site with
less space for expansion. The capacity and location of the new cargo complex have to be designed
based on the air cargo demand forecast, and considered the better location that is advantageous to
conveyance of the cargo by freighter as well as the cargo by passenger aircraft (belly cargo).

As described above, relocation of one facility causes the other facilities to be moved. In other
words it becomes the billiards state. In order to avoid such a situation, the Airport Layout (Plot
Plan) considering expansion space has to be prepared carefully through the discussions with the
relevant parties.

6.2 Necessity of Detailed Master Plan (Revision of the Airport Master Plan)
The major 4 projects in JKAI are now carried out on the basis of the Airport Master Plan (Kenya
National Airports System Plan) issued in 2011 made by the US Louis Berger Group, Inc., etc.
Because the circumstances surrounding JKIA including the passenger volume decrease by the
terrorism outbreak in 2013 have changed after then in Kenya, the immediate revision of the Airport
Master Plan is required. For example, the air traffic demand forecasted curve described in the
Chapter 3 (forecasted in 2015) is changed in comparison with the demand forecasted curve in the
Airport Master Plan (forecasted in 2011) about five years late. More proper capacity and the time
limit of each facility rehabilitation and construction should be revised based on the latest demand
forecast.

6.2.1 Hierarchies of Airport Master Plan


Several hierarchies can be thought about by an airport range to intend for the Airport Master Plan
shown in figure 6-4.
The high-end Airport Master Plan shows a policy, concrete measures and so on about the airport
safety and security, the air traffic control system and the airline network (criteria of each airport) for
all Kenyan airports. The low-end Airport Master Plan is made for only one airport, which shows
the detailed rehabilitation and development plan including the airport layout.

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Fig. 6-4 Hierarchies of the Airport Master Plan

Source: Study Team

6.2.2 Contents of Airport Master Plan


The low-end Airport Master Plan is made in a procedure of (1) Current situation survey, (2) Demand
forecast, (3) Facility requirements, (4) Development plan, (5) Cost estimation and (6) Economic
analysis. This report covers the domain of a red dotted line for JKIA shown in figure 6-5.

Fig. 6-5 Contents of the Airport Master Plan

Source: Study Team

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6.2.3 JKIA Detailed Master Plan


The reinforcement of the passenger capacity of JKIA is a very urgent issue. In this report, the early
revision of the Airport Master Plan for JKIA (JKIA Detailed Master Plan) is strongly requested, that
makes the mutual relations of major 4 on-going projects at JKIA clear and keeps them harmonized
with the unified vision for the future of JKIA. For revising JKIA Detailed Master Plan, some
preconditions and constraints have to be clarified by well understanding the project status,
requirements and specification of 4 on-going projects at first.

Additionally in the JKIA Detailed Master Plan, with the increase of future air traffic demand, it is
expected to be made a concrete and clear policy that is including the optimization of the airport
layout (plot plan) of JKIA, the enhancement of safety and security measures, the realization of the
higher eco-airport, and so on. And it is necessary to firm the position of JKIA as a gateway for the
East Africa based on "Kenya Vision 2030 which was devised as a long-term development strategy by
the Kenyan Government in July, 2008. (refer to Figure 6-6)

Fig. 6-6 Issues of JKIA Detailed Master Plan

Source: Study Team

6.3 Preconditions for Project Implementation Schedule


6.3.1 Proposed scheme for finance and operation for the new PTB
The following finance and operation schemes for the new PTB construction project become the

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preconditions for preparing for the project implementation schedule in this report. (refer to Phase 1
in the Figure 6-7)
(1) Construction of the new PTB is done by Japanese ODA (STEP) as its finance source.
(2) Operation and maintenance for the new PTB are done by the third party (Concessionaire).
It is expected to increase the airport value by utilizing the world-class airport operator as well as
to obtain the latest know-how in the airport operation and maintenance.
(3) Based on the JKIA Detailed Master Plan, the new PTB is well harmonized with the other
projects carried out at JKIA.

Fig. 6-7 Proposed scheme for finance and operation for the new PTB

Source: Study Team

6.3.2 Pursuit of an eco-airport in the new PTB


In the privatization of the airport by the PPP above mentioned, an example of airport privatization in
Japan serves as your good reference. (refer to Figure 6-8) It can be recommended to discuss with
the Japanese Government and privatized airport persons concerned, on the occasion of the drafting
of the privatization plan at JKIA and the other airports in Kenya.

On the other hand, the Japanese Government promotes airports in Japan to materialize the higher
“eco-airport”. The expectation to the “eco-airport” is also very high in Kenya especially it is
aggressive to introduce the energy-saving technology considering the power supply circumstances in
Kenya. Therefore, the pursuit of the “eco-airport” based on the cooperation of Kenya and Japan
could expect the possibility of introducing the Japanese latest eco-technologies into Kenya and
combination research and development, and it may be said that there is the merit for two countries.

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Fig. 6-8 Privatization of the major airport in Japan and realization of the eco-airport

Source: Study Team

6.3.3 Time limitation of each project based on the demand forecast


Time limitations of the major 4 on-going projects at JKIA based on the air traffic demand forecast
described in the Chapter 3 are as follows. The details are referred to Figure 6-9 “Project
Implementation Schedule based on the demand forecast (time limitation)”.

(1) Parallel Taxiway Expansion (Rehabilitation of the existing R/W, T/W and Apron)
This project aims at the increase of the runway capacity. The passenger capacity is expected
to increase indirectly through the increase of number of aircraft movement. Therefore, the
time limitation of this project based on the passenger traffic demand forecast cannot be shown
clearly. However, possible early expansion is required, considering the needs to invite the
large aircraft.

(2) Rehabilitation of the Existing PTB (T1)


This project is expected to increase the annual passenger capacity of the existing PTB (T1)
form 5.0 million to 8.0 million. The current annual capacity at JKIA is totally 7.5 million (T1:
5.0 million + T2: 2.5 million) and based on the demand forecast described in the Chapter 3,
JKIA will fall into a lack state of passenger capacity within this year (2017). Therefore, it is
necessary to carry out this project as soon as possible.

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(3) Construction of the 2nd Runway


This project aims at the establishment of the more stable aircraft take-off and landing conditions
with 2 runways. Therefore, early enforcement is expected.

(4) Construction of the new PTB


The current annual passenger capacity of JKIA is 7.5 million. The details are as follow.

T1-A : 2.5 million


T1-B/C/D/E : 2.5 million
(T1) : 5.0 million (+3.0 million by T1 rehabilitation, becomes 8.0 million)
T2 : 2.5 million (Design life is over in 2025)
(T1+T2) : 7.5 million

T2 that was built as the design life of 10 years in 2015 finishes the position quota in 2025.
Then, the passenger capacity of 2.5 million/year is decreased at JKIA.
Therefore, the annual passenger capacity of the existing PTB at JKIA has to be considered as
10.5 million (T1:8.0 + T2:2.5 million) by 2025, and only 8.0 million (T1:8.0 million) after 2025,
with adding 3.0 million increase to T1 by the rehabilitation.

According to the demand forecast described in the Chapter 3, the annual passenger volume
becomes approximately 10.5 million in 2023 that is equal to the total capacity of JKIA then.
Therefore, it is necessary to complete the construction of the new PTB at JKIA in 2023. KAA
is requested to start both projects of T1 rehabilitation and the new PTB construction in parallel
as soon as possible in order to prevent the passenger capacity excess at JKIA.

In terms of the passenger capacity for the new PTB, it is planned based on 8.0 million of the
passenger capacity of the existing PTB after 2025 as a precondition. As mentioned in detail in
the Chapter 3, the new PTB should be available for the passenger demand until 2035.
Therefore, it is recommended to plan the new PTB at JKIA with the annual passenger capacity
of 11.5 million as phase 1 of the development. As a result, total annual passenger capacity
becomes 19.5 million (T1:8.0 + new PTB:11.5).

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Fig. 6-9 Time limitation of each Project at JKIA based on the PAX demand forecast

Source: Study Team

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6.4 Project Implementation Schedule


The project implementation schedule regarding the major 4 on-going projects at JKIA is made and
recommended based on the preconditions stated in a foregoing paragraph. (refer to Figure 6-10)

(1) Rehabilitation of the existing PTB (T1) and Expansion of the air-side facilities
It is recommended that the projects for T1 rehabilitation, parallel taxiway expansion and the 2nd
runway construction are commenced as soon as possible.
The figure 6-10 on the next page shows the each project implementation schedules based on the
acquired information in the survey carried out in October, 2016.

(2) Construction and Operation of the new PTB


As mentioned in a foregoing paragraph, it is necessary to complete the construction of the new
PTB at JKIA in 2023. In the project implementation schedule, the commencement of the
operation is made in 2024, and the completion of the construction is assumed in 2023.
For the construction financed by the Japanese ODA (STEP), it is planned to take 3 years for the
construction, 1 year for the detailed design and 1 year for the preparatory study (basic design)
and 6 months for each consultants and contractor selections. As a result, this project has to be
started (consultant selection for the preparatory study) in the middle of this year (2017) at the
latest.

On the other hand, for the operation of the new PTB by the third party (concessionaire), it must
be made based on the procedure determined in the Kenyan PPP law. The necessary work
activities such as preparatory study (PPP Feasibility Study) for basic design and PPP scheming,
preparation for concessionaire selection are referred to the Japanese procedure for the airport
privatization.

(3) JKIA Detailed Master Plan


As described in 6.2.3, early revision of the KJIA Detailed Master Plan is required. With some
on-going projects at JKIA, it is strongly recommended that the selection of the consultant is
made immediately and the revision works are started in the middle of this year (2017).
Additionally, the other scenario is recommendable that both studies of JKIA Detailed Master
Plan and the new PTB (Basic Design) are done by the 1 consultant group expecting to void the
duplicated works and shorten the time to the construction.

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Fig. 6-10 Project Implementation Schedule

Source: Study Team

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6.5 Future Action for the New PTB Construction


As for the passenger volume using JKIA, it is expected to be exceeded its passenger capacity in very
this year (2017), and expansion of passenger capacity of JKIA by the rehabilitation of the existing
PTB (T1) as well as by the construction of the new PTB are very urgent issues.
As described in the Chapter 5, the new PTB is recommended to be constructed by utilizing Japanese
ODA (STEP) finance, and operated by the third party (concessionaire) under the PPP scheme.

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