SSA Annual Meeting

SSA 2015 Annual Meeting Announcement
Seismological Society of America

Technical Sessions
21--23 April 2015
Pasadena, California
IMPORTANT DATES
Meeting Pre-Registration Deadline 15 March 2015
Hotel Reservation Cut-Off (gov’t rate) 03 March 2015
Hotel Reservation Cut-Off (regular room) 17 March 2015
Online Registration Cut-Off 10 April 2015
On-site registration 21--23 April 2015
PROGRAM COMMITTEE
This 2015 technical program committee is led by co-chairs Press Relations

Pablo Ampuero (California Institute of Technology, Pasadena Nan Broadbent
CA) and Kate Scharer (USGS, Pasadena CA); committee Seismological Society of America
members include Domniki Asimaki (Caltech, Mechanical 408-431-9885
and Civil Engineering), Monica Kohler (Caltech, Mechanical nan0604@msn.com
and Civil Engineering), Nate Onderdonk (CSU Long Beach,
Geological Sciences) and Margaret Vinci (Caltech, Office of
Earthquake Programs)
TECHNICAL PROGRAM
Meeting Contacts
The SSA 2015 technical program comprises 300 oral and 433
Technical Program Co-Chairs poster presentations and will be presented in 32 sessions over
Pablo Ampuero and Kate Scharer 3 days. The session descriptions, detailed program schedule,
2015Program@seismosoc.org and all abstracts appear on the following pages. Seachable
abstracts are at http://www.seismosoc.org/meetings/2014/
Abstract Submissions abstracts/.
Joy Troyer
Seismological Society of America
510.559.1784
joy@seismosoc.org LECTURES
Registration
Sissy Stone President’s Address
Seismological Society of America The President’s Address will be presented by Lisa Grant
510.559.1780 Ludwig at the Annual Luncheon, Tuesday 21 April.
registration@seismosoc.org
Exhibits Joyner Lecture

Noach Dzmura The Joyner Lecture will be presented by Paul Somerville at 5:15
Seismological Society of America pm Wednesday 22 April. His talk is entitled, “Geoscientists’
510.559.1783 Capacity to Supply Engineers’ Demands for Seismic Hazard
ssa2015exhibits@seismosoc.org Inputs.”
doi: 10.1785/0220150017 Seismological Research Letters Volume 86, Number 2B March/April 2015 533
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TOWN HALL MEETING Tuesday 5:55--7:00 PM, Wednesday 7:30--8:25 AM, and
Wednesday 2:15--3:15 PM
On Tuesday, 21 April 7:30--9:00 pm we will hold a Town Hall The midterm elections are over, the new Congress is in
Meeting titled “The Future of Earthquake Hazard Mitigation: place and we face the same issues as before: a contentious
How earthquakes impact Southern California...come meet the legislative environment, declining budgets, and sequestration
experts.” This is open to the public and will feature talks from impacts. In this environment, every scientist needs to know
4 experts: how to make the best case for their science. Come for an
informative session and learn more on the inner workings of
1. Challenges of lifeline mitigation - Craig Davis, LADWP the US Congress, how laws are made, and what to do to become
2. Earthquake Faults in SoCal - Kate Scharer, USGS an effective advocate for science.
3. Earthquake Monitoring of Smart Buildings - Monica Elizabeth brings over 20 years of business, political and
Kohler, Caltech advocacy experience and will inform you how to speak to
4. Earthquake Early Warning - Doug Given, USGS representatives to get your message heard, how to establish
productive relationships with elected officials and their offices,
and how to best impact legislation in Congress, even in this
political environment.
PRE-MEETING CAREER WORKSHOP
“Career Game-Changers: Strategic Avenues to Landing the WALKING TOUR

Right Job and Finding Success in Science,”
Monday, 20 April, 1--5 PM “Earthquake Engineering 101 Walking Tour of Pasadena
Facilitated by Alaina Levine Structures”
Alaina asks the big questions early-mid career scientists Walking Tour led by Melvyn Green and Janah Risha
and engineers often have the most difficulty answering. Thursday 23 April 5:30 PM and 6:00 PM
Participants will leave the workshop and their one-on-one This is an engineer-led walking tour of existing and retrofit
career consulting session with the skills necessary to understand buildings in Old Town Pasadena. After visiting a variety of
and utilize their own value, to maximize their potential, and to venues, the group will end at a local pub for dinner (meal not
achieve their career goals both in the short and long term. included).
Specifically targeted towards graduate students, postdocs,
and early career professionals, this workshop will focus on
the current and expanding crisis in the job and career FIELD TRIP
market for scientists, and how early-career scientists can best
prepare for this challenge. We will specifically address career “Past Earthquakes and Active Structures of the L.A.
planning strategies for international scholars, and touch on Region”
opportunities both in and outside of academia. Field trip is led by James Dolan, Kate Scharer, Doug Yule and
Jerry Treiman
One-on-One Career Consulting Sessions Friday 24 April 8 AM--6 PM
After the workshop, Alaina will meet with workshop This fieldtrip will focus on major faults of the northern
participants about career issues. As a neutral, external, third- Los Angeles metropolitan region, including the geologic effects
party, she can be a completely confidential and objective of the earthquakes that they generate. We plan to take a
resource who can provide advice specifically for your situation. passenger bus to the following locations: (1) Griffith Park
Consultations will be approximately 20 minutes long and Observatory. From here one can see the breadth of the LA
will be offered to the first 36 who sign up for the course. Basin, looking south, at uplift along the Newport-Inglewood
Participants meet to discuss any career-related issues they have fault and looking north, at fold and thrust systems stacked
including: career planning and searching, CV/resume writing; up under the San Gabriel Mountains. This first stop will
cover letter writing, professional development, professional provide a framework for the types of geologic structures that
etiquette, networking, negotiation, etc. Participants are pose a hazard to LA infrastructure and communities, as well
encouraged to bring their CV/resume, cover letter, or any as a detailed discussion of the Puente Hills and Compton
other item they wish to have evaluated. thrusts, two major blind thrust faults that underlie much
of the metropolitan region. (2) Hollywood fault. This fault
was recently designated as an Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault
GOVERNMENT RELATIONS WORKSHOP Zone by the California Geologic Survey. At this stop we will
discuss approaches for collecting geologic data on active faults
How Congress Works & How You Can Work Congress in urban areas. (3) Historic reverse fault earthquakes in the
Workshop Presenter: Elizabeth Duffy, President of the San Fernando Valley. This stop will discuss the seismologic
Federal Affairs Office, Washington, D.C. and government and geologic effects of the 1994 Northridge and 1971 Sylmar
affairs coordinator for SSA earthquakes. (4) Time permitting, we will have a final stop
534 Seismological Research Letters Volume 86, Number 2B March/April 2015

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on the central Sierra Madre fault north of Pasadena to discuss Thursday, 23 April
what we know (and don’t know) about this major reverse fault Technical Sessions (8:30 AM--5:00 PM)
lurking beneath the northern edge of the metropolitan region. Lunch (12:00 PM--1:00 PM)
Some walking will be required, so comfortable shoes and a Walking Tour of Old Town Pasadena (est. 5:30 PM--7:30 PM)
hat are recommended. -- Leaving from Pasadena Convention Center
SCHEDULE Friday, 24 April

Field Trip (est. 8:00 AM--6:00 PM) -- Leaving from Sheraton
Most conference events will be held at the Pasadena Pasadena
Convention Center in Pasadena, California. Some events are
at the nearby Sheraton Pasadena Hotel. This schedule is subject to change.
Preliminary Schedule
HOTEL AND TRAVEL INFORMATION
Monday, 20 April
Board of Directors Meeting (9:30 AM--5:00 PM) -- Sheraton The conference will be held at the Pasadena Convention
Pasadena Center at 300 E. Green Street, Pasadena, California
Career Workshop (1:00 PM--5:00 PM) -- Sheraton Pasadena 91101. SSA has room blocks at two nearby hotels
Registration (3:00 PM--8:00 PM) this year, Sheraton Pasadena and Westin Pasadena.
Icebreaker (6:00 PM--8:00 PM) Rates and reservation links are available online at
http://www.seismosoc.org/meetings/2015/hotel.php
Tuesday, 21 April
Technical Sessions (8:30 AM--6:00 PM)
Annual Luncheon (12:00 PM--2:00 PM) EXHIBITORS, SPONSORS, AND ADVERTISERS
Student Reception (5:45 PM--7:30 PM)
Early Career Reception (5:45 PM--7:30 PM) Information for organizations wishing to register as
Reception to honor Susan Newman’s 45 years as Executive exhibitors, sponsor events at the meeting, or advertise
Director (5:45 PM--7:30 PM) in the meeting program is on the SSA website at
Town Hall Meeting (7:30 PM--9:00 PM) http://www.seismosoc.org/meetings/2015/exhibit/.
Wednesday, 22 April
Technical Sessions (8:30 AM--5:00 PM)
Lunch (12:00 PM--1:00 PM)
Joyner Lecture (5:15 PM--6:15 PM)
Joyner Reception (6:15 PM--7:30 PM)
Seismological Research Letters Volume 86, Number 2B March/April 2015 535

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Technical Sessions
2014 National Seismic Hazard Mapping Updates: Hazard metrics for source inversion validation, and to help build
Changes and Influence on Seismic Risk more realistic dynamic models of the earthquake rupture
The U.S. Geological Survey publishes new seismic hazard maps process. In addition, we welcome contributions that highlight
every six years. These maps display probabilistic estimates developments towards "as-automatic-as-possible" finite-fault
of earthquake ground shaking across the United States at inversion, as such procedures will greatly facilitate the
various recurrence intervals. The maps are applied in seismic validation process of source inversions.
provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, risk Conveners : Paul Martin Mai (martin.mai@kaust.
assessments, and other public policy. Effective communication edu.sa), Lingsen Meng (meng@ess.ucla.edu), Shengji
of the seismic hazard maps, associated uncertainties in hazard Wei (shjwei@gps.caltech.edu), Jean-Paul Ampuero
estimates, and their updates over time could pose a serious (ampuero@gps.caltech.edu) and Danijel Schorlemmner
challenge. The session aims to pool together certain key (ds@gfz-potsdam.de)
stakeholders from the variety of end-users of these maps,
and examine how the changes introduced through different Advances in High-frequency Ground Motion and
versions have influenced their decision-making. To begin, we Attenuation
will discuss some of the key changes that were introduced Ground motion at high frequencies (1-30 Hz) has recently
during the 2002, 2008, and 2014 cycles of National seismic been a core issue in large seismic hazard assessment projects,
hazard maps and how they have influenced our understanding following the Fukushima accident. While existing critical
of earthquake hazards throughout the nation. In addition, the facilities and concrete dams are being reassessed in view
session will also highlight some of the implications of changes of high-frequency response and attenuation, broadband
in hazard in terms of measures such as human exposure, simulations are attempting to reach unprecedented high
annualized earthquake loss/risk estimates, changes in design frequencies. This session welcomes all contributions related to
criteria, and insurance pricing. high frequency ground motion, with emphasis on attenuation.
Conveners : Kishor Jaiswal (kjaiswal@usgs.gov), Topics of interest include: how physics-based and other
Doug Bausch (Douglas.Bausch@fema.dhs.gov), Nilesh broadband simulation techniques handle high-frequency
Shome (nilesh@stanfordalumni.org) and Mark Petersen attenuation; crustal attenuation studies; anelastic attenuation
(mpetersen@usgs.gov) and scattering effects at high frequencies; spectral analysis
studies where results (Q, stress drop) may be subject to
Advances in Earthquake Source Inversion trade-offs between kappa and source, path and site effects in
Earthquake source inversion and high-frequency rupture that frequency range; studies of hard-site amplification and
imaging provide time-dependent information on earthquake rock site characterization; adjustments of ground motion
rupture processes, but a synoptic view of the origin and prediction equations (GMPEs) and host-to-target techniques
impact of the resulting uncertainties on the estimated source that take into account high-frequency attenuation; new
parameters has not been fully developed. Furthermore, the generation GMPEs explicitly accounting for kappa; results
optimal integration of various datasets, and the combination and experiences from PSHA projects for critical infrastructure
of source inversion and source imaging, to derive a complete that account for high-frequency attenuation; and work on the
understanding of the kinematic rupture evolution in space and estimation, components, and physical interpretation of kappa
time, still pose many open questions. In this context, reliable and fmax.
near-real-time finite-fault parameter estimation are needed, as Conveners : Olga-Joan Ktenidou (olga.ktenidou@ujf-
well as high-fidelity rupture-history inversions. grenoble.fr), Norman A. Abrahamson (abrahamson@
This session aims at highlighting recent advances and berkeley.edu), Kim Bak Olsen (kbolsen@mail.sdsu.edu) and
comparative studies in finite-fault earthquake source inversion, Ralph Archuleta (archuleta@ucsb.edu)
including the development of innovative inversion and
imaging methods and the rigorous estimation of model Applications of Tsunami Science: Working with States
uncertainties. We also invite contributions that integrate and Communities to Improve Tsunami Resilience
observational earthquake seismology with earthquake physics Effective tsunami mitigation programs benefit from an
and tectonics, with potential applications in ground motion infusion of new research and technologies into practical
prediction and early warning studies, to motivate new mitigation and preparedness efforts at the community and
developments in source characterization, to define new regional level. Historical and paleo-tsunami information helps

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determine the impact and recurrence of large tsunamis for Site effects have been documented extensively in the literature
a particular source or region and provides physical evidence and have been studied through experiments, analytical,
for rare events that enriches outreach efforts. Improvements numerical and empirical methods. In practice, site effects are
made in source and numerical tsunami modeling provide accounted through semi-empirical GMPEs, which capture
communities with enhanced tsunami hazard and risk products the average net site effect (primarily from soil amplification)
used for evacuation and preparedness planning, and improved conditional on the site parameter that is used (typically
response during a tsunami event, including development of Vs30 and basin depth), but ignore higher-dimensional (3D)
real-time products for communities. Lessons learned from the site effects such as topographic amplification. The purpose
2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami are now being applied in tsunami of this session is to facilitate the dissemination of recent
mitigation programs worldwide. advances in the understanding, monitoring, simulation and
This session will focus on application of techniques and parameterization of 3D site effects in ground motion. Specific
technologies into mitigation and education efforts and their topics include recent advances in the mapping and inference
effect on community resilience. This includes: 1) advances in of site parameters (Vs30, basin depth and beyond), semi-
tsunami engineering, vulnerability, and risk analysis products; empirical models for 3D site effects, simulation-based models
2) tools to help with scenario-specific tsunami preparedness and experimental studies on 3D site-specific response effects,
and real-time response; and 3) improved planning and and procedures to account for 3D site effects in seismic code
educational resources. provisions.
Conveners : Rick Wilson (Rick.Wilson@conservation. Conveners : Domniki Asimaki (domniki@caltech.edu),
ca.gov) and Lori Dengler (Lori.Dengler@humboldt.edu) Adrian Rodriguez-Marek (adrianrm@vt.edu), Jonathan
Stewart (jstewart@seas.ucla.edu) and Alan Yong (yong@
The August 24, 2014 South Napa, CA Earthquake: Science usgs.gov)
Results, Impacts and Lessons Learned
The M6.0 South Napa earthquake continues to be a scientific Central Coastal California Tectonics
surprise: extensive, distributed surface rupture coupled with Earth science data collected in central coastal California since
spatially varying, large magnitude post-seismic slip have the 2003 San Simeon and 2004 Parkfield earthquakes have
challenged our notions of the relationship between fault significantly added to the understanding of the tectonics and
slip at depth and static and dynamic ground motions and seismic hazard of the region. In particular, the application
their associated hazards. In addition, in part because of its of new technologies (e.g., differential GPS, GIS, multibeam
proximity to a major population center, and in part because bathymetry, airborne and marine magnetics, low energy
of the concurrent maturation of new technology, this event 2D/3D seismic reflection, and autonomous seismograph
has been studied and imaged by myriad new systems and nodes) through cooperative public-private sector research has
platforms with exceptional spatial and temporal density. We enabled high-resolution geophysical imaging of the central
encourage a broad range of contributions to this session that California coastal region and has helped reduce the uncertainty
will highlight what we have learned from this earthquake and for a number of seismic hazard significant parameters
how this will be applied in practice in order to mitigate the This session will feature results from the PG&E-
damaging effects of future earthquakes on society. Suggested sponsored Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging
topics include the application of new technologies to post- Project – a multidisciplinary offshore/onshore study of
earthquake response, application of remote sensing techniques crustal structure, marine paleoseismology, and seismic hazard
to detect ground failure, results from, and integration of, near the Irish Hills. In addition, this session will highlight
LiDAR and field mapping, geodesy, performance of earthquake cooperative geologic and geophysical research efforts including
early warning systems, geology, seismology, ground motions, the PG&E /USGS Central California Cooperative Research
site response, performance of buildings and infrastructure, and and Development Agreement (CRADA) and the California
post-earthquake coordination activities. Seafloor Mapping Program. We welcome independent
Conveners : Gareth Funning (gareth@ucr.edu), research submissions that focus on the tectonics and seismic
Benjamin Brooks (bbrooks@usgs.gov) and Timothy hazards of the central California coast.
Dawson (Timothy.Dawson@conservation.ca.gov) Conveners : Stuart Nishenko (spn3@pge.com), Neal
Driscoll (ndriscoll@ucsd.edu) and Janet Watt (jwatt@
Capturing Site Effects in Strong Ground Motion usgs.gov)
Site effects on strong ground motions include the effects
of surface and sub-surface topography, stratigraphic Characterizing Ground Motions and Active Faults in Urban
discontinuities, and soil layering. These three-dimensional Areas
(3D) effects are known to affect the amplitude, frequency Shallow materials can result in significant ground motion
and duration of ground motion through mechanisms of amplification or ground failure during earthquakes, and
ground response (including impedance and resonance effects), determining whether active faults lie beneath cities is a key
basin effects (e.g., preferential focusing, and/or trapping parameter for seismic hazard analyses. However, characterizing
of seismic energy), and topographic effects (resonance of a the effects of shallow deposits and active faults beneath
topographic feature, energy reverberations in confined space). urban areas can be hampered by the built environment

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and high levels of ambient noise. This session solicits (wald@usgs.gov), Paul Somerville (paul.somerville@
contributions describing methodologies for characterizing urs.com) and Ting Lin (ting.lin@marquette.edu)
urban earthquake hazards. We encourage contributions that
include the estimation of ground motion variations from Earthquake Processes and Multiscale Modeling and
natural and anthropogenic soils, basin-scale site response, and Characterization of Fragmentation and Damage Patterns
identification and characterization of active faults. Topics of in Fault Zones
particular interest are descriptions of methodologies suitable The brittle portion of the crust contains structural features
for rapid assessments of ground conditions and subsurface such as faults, jogs, joints, bends and cataclastic zones that
imaging throughout large urban areas, and studies using dense span a wide range of length scales. These features have
arrays of measurements. a profound effect on earthquake nucleation, propagation
Conveners : Lee Liberty (lliberty@boisestate.edu) and and arrest mechanisms. They also contribute to prestress
Thomas Pratt (tpratt@usgs.gov) heterogeneity and complexity of ground motion patterns.
The feedback between seismic/aseismic slip and these
Characterizing the Potential Impacts of Surface Fault geometric features leads to (1) different slip modes that
Rupture on Transportation Systems ranges from extremely localized to widely distributed, (2)
The linear nature of terrestrial transportation systems such activation and de-activation of many of these geometric
as highways, railroads and product conveyance systems is features during the seismic cycle, and (3) different spatio-
such that crossings of active faults cannot always be avoided. temporal distributions of aftershocks and nucleation sites.
Consequently, critical elements of transportation systems such This session solicits contributions in the broad area of
as bridges, tunnels and other structures must sometimes be multiscale modeling and characterization of fragmentation
designed for surface fault rupture hazards. Reliable estimates and damage generation in fault zones. Possible topics include,
of the magnitude, sense and distribution of surface fault but not limited to: (i) constitutive modeling of rate dependent
rupture displacement is critical for a robust design. Methods damage accumulation and healing in rocks, (ii) fault zone
for performing deterministic and probabilistic analysis of fault topology evolution through strain and strain rate dependent
rupture displacement are evolving, aided by an ever-increasing grain size evolution, (iii) strain localization in fault gouge
empirical dataset. Empirical observations on the performance and its influence on off-fault damage generation, (iv) field
of structures subject to fault rupture offset provide important investigations of spatiotemporal distribution near fault
insight into the behavior of such systems. This session will surfaces, (v) computational earthquake models that account
incorporate presentations on recent advancements in this explicitly for inelastic processes on and off the faults.
field, including research on surface fault rupture hazard Conveners : Ahmed Elbanna (elbanna2@illinois.edu)
characterization and in the application of research in the design and Harsha Bhat (bhat@ipgp.fr)
of transportation projects.
Conveners : Zia Zafir (zzafir@kleinfelder.com), Engineering and Public Safety Concerns Raised by
Jonathan Bray (jonbray@berkeley.edu) and James Gingery Seismic Hazard Assessment Methods
(jgingery@kleinfelder.com) Observed hazards and structural performances in recent
earthquakes such as the 2014 Napa earthquake (Northern
Earthquake Hazards and Risk: Drivers and Consumers of California), 2009 L’Aquila and 2012 Emilia earthquakes
Earthquake Research (Italy), 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Japan), etc. raised concerns
Early earthquake hazard models date back to the 1960’s about public safety and estimated hazard and risk for future
whereas the first earthquake risk models were proposed circa events. The session is an open discussion on various aspects
the 1990’s. Both the motivation and methodologies for these on seismic hazard assessment (SHA) approaches as it directly
models have evolved substantially since. In particular, recent relates to engineering and public safety applications. So far
advances in ground motion prediction equations, probabilistic there have been basically two differing assessment approaches
source modeling, inventory compilation, computational (viz., deterministic and probabilistic) used by scientists.
engines and vulnerability studies have led to improved hazard Recently, the enhanced deterministic, neo-deterministic SHA
and risk modeling advances. Yet, significant gaps and large has been proposed. A goal of this session is to provide balanced
uncertainties remain. In this session, we invite hazard and risk information to the public by its proponents.
professionals—particularly those in the user community—to The discussion will involve the concept and practicality
describe their challenges and their needs in this field for of the approaches with respect to data, theory, assumptions,
focused research and future products. Our hope is to motivate analysis, costs/benefits, results, experience, purpose/objective,
discussion between hazard and risk disciplines including those track record, and history. Important practical questions for
among academia, and practicing professionals, modelers, and the session include: Do we have the confidence that we can
the related user communities. Topics including how to address do better with one or the other methodology? Do we have
the complexity of earthquake sequences, scenario development reasonable and adequate data available at this time, as required
and use, and loss and risk modeling are encouraged. by each of the respective approaches, especially for engineering
Conveners : Delphine Fitzenz (delphine.fitzenz@ and public safety applications? Do we have any method for
rms.com), Edwin Apel (Trey.Apel@rms.com), David Wald assessing adequacy of SHA performances? Do we have any

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objective assessment of the costs and benefits related to over- geodetic modeling and seek to document past earthquake
and under-estimated SHA’s? What should be done for the activity and/or improve our understanding of why, where, and
future when actual events exceeded hazard estimates by a when earthquakes occur in CENA.
particular approach as noted in several recent instances? Is it Conveners : Robert Williams (rawilliams@usgs.gov),
necessary or not, to relate design or useful life of structures to Oliver Boyd (olboyd@usgs.gov) and William Levandowski
seismic hazard level and how realistic are those life determined? (wlevandowski@usgs.gov)
Are we prepared for the largest potential events?
Conveners : Lalliana Mualchin (mualchin@hotmail. How Reliable Are Reconstructions and Models of
com), Antonella Peresan (aperesan@alice.it), Vladimir Surface-Rupturing Earthquakes?
Kossobokov (volodya@mitp.ru) and Jens-Uwe Klügel Historic surface-rupturing earthquakes have demonstrated a
(jkluegel@msn.com) potential for complex, discontinuous rupture traces. With
this in mind, how well do reconstructions and models of
Engineering Seismology and Ground Motion Prediction past ruptures from paleoseismology, geomorphologic slip-rate
This session addresses progress in the development of studies, or finite fault models and forecasts of future surface-
ground motion prediction equations, and advances in the rupturing earthquakes [e.g. UCERF3 (CA), WGUEP (UT), J-
quantification of earthquake impact on engineering structures SHIS (Japan)] realistically describe the complexity of surface
and other induced hazards such as landslides. ruptures? Are earthquake magnitudes and rupture lengths
Conveners : Praveen Malhotra (Praveen.Malhotra@ from empirically-based models consistent with individual
StrongMotions.com) and Yousef Bozorgnia (yousef@ field-based observations (e.g. timing, displacement) of past
berkeley.edu) events? This session will highlight advancements in earthquake
science that improve our understanding of fault segmentation,
Expanding our Understanding of Explosion rupture dynamics, distributed deformation, along-strike and
Phenomenology Through Analysis and Modeling of down-dip fault-slip gradients, and related seismic hazard
Seismic Observations and Complementary Data Types topics. We welcome abstracts from a wide spectrum of
A thorough understanding of explosion-related phenomena scientists, including paleoseismologic studies of Quaternary-
requires a synthesis of many observables, modeling techniques active structures, detailed studies of modern ruptures, and
and analysis methods. Determination of details such as dynamic or simulator models of rupture scenarios. We invite
explosive yield, source radiation pattern, depth-of-burial or discussion of new, innovative approaches that characterize
height-of-burst, etc., is often not possible with seismic active structures and earthquakes using field-based techniques,
data alone. Physical constraints can be applied from the computer modeling, and remote sensing. The goal of this
fields of infrasound, materials testing, hydro-acoustics, remote session will be to consider ways to improve the documentation
sensing, geology, and electromagnetic signals, among others. of past earthquakes and to advance our estimates of earthquake
This session will highlight examples and techniques of probabilities.
multi-disciplinary explosion-source studies. We also invite Conveners : Scott Bennett (sekbennett@usgs.gov),
submissions about advancements in any individual field that Katherine Scharer (kscharer@usgs.gov) and Julian Lozos
extends our understanding of underground and subaerial (jlozos@stanford.edu)
explosions and their effects.
Conveners : Robert Abbott (reabbot@sandia.gov), Induced Seismicity
Charlotte Rowe (char@lanl.gov) and Brian Stump Induced seismicity particularly due to oil and gas activities
(bstump@smu.edu) has garnered worldwide attention. Several countries in North
America and Europe have now reported likely cases of induced
From Newspapers to Numerical Analyses: Documenting seismicity that were felt by the nearby population. Recent
and Understanding Earthquakes in Central and Eastern damaging earthquakes of M >= 4 in Oklahoma, Colorado,
North America Ohio, Texas, and Arkansas have renewed considerable
Relative to western North America finding young faults in attention in induced seismicity in the U.S. Given these
central and eastern North America (CENA) is a rare, but occurrences of damaging earthquakes and an increase in
much appreciated, achievement. Because it is difficult to seismicity rate in the U.S. in the past 12 years, it is of critical
find faults and get direct paleoseismic data from a trench importance that induced earthquakes are better monitored
across faults in CENA, a wide variety of research must and understood such that their hazards may be mitigated.
be employed to reveal the earthquake history. Further, the Topics of interest to address these issues include: (1) what are
relative paucity of recent and historic earthquakes in much the mechanisms of induced earthquakes; (2) what methods
of CENA stymies an appreciation of the temporal and spatial can be used to distinguish natural and induced earthquakes;
pattern and origins of seismicity. We seek contributions from (3) how can the hydrologic regime be modeled to assess the
the spectrum of approaches that can provide insight into effects of injection and pore pressure increases; (4) what are
earthquake occurrence in low-strain settings. For example, the seismic source parameters of induced earthquakes; (5)
approaches may include historical accounts, sand blow and what are the geologic characteristics of injection sites that
speleothem studies, geomorphic analyses, crustal imaging, and have undergone induced earthquakes; (6) can fluid-injection

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induced earthquakes be controlled; and (7) how to estimate invite contributions to this session from all of these areas
the hazard associated with already developed and new fluid of microseismic interest. The goal is the cross-fertilization of
injection fields. We invite papers on all forms of induced ideas and techniques that can potentially advance the both
seismicity but particularly those associated with waste water- the science and the industrial application of microseismic
injection, hydraulic fracturing, geothermal production, and technology.
carbon sequestration. Papers from industry are particularly Conveners : Clifford Thurber (thurber@geology.
welcome to better inform the research community on the state wisc.edu), Stephen Wilson (stephen.wilson@
of knowledge and practices within the community. seismogenic.com) and Giovanni Grasselli (giovanni.
Conveners : Ivan Wong (ivan.wong@urs.com), grasselli@utoronto.ca)
Justin Rubinstein (jrubinstein@usgs.gov), Thomas
Braun (thomas.braun@ingv.it) and T.H.W. Goebel Numerical Modeling of Earthquake Ground Motion,
(tgoebel@gps.caltech.edu) Rupture Dynamics and Seismic Wave Propagation
Advances in numerical modeling methodology in seismology
Linking Ground Motion and Earthquake Source Variability are not only driven by emerging requirements in observational
(SSA/ESC Joint Session) seismology (e.g., the advent of very dense seismic arrays;
Over the past decades, it has been increasingly recognized that demand for near-real-time simulations; the multi-scale, multi-
the adequate quantification and understanding of earthquake physics modeling of seismic phenomena; etc.), but also by
ground motion variability plays a key role for reliable seismic developments in the mathematical sciences, and through the
hazard assessment, in particular for critical structures and adaptation of methods originating in other scientific fields.
long return periods. New earthquake and wave propagation Moreover, future methods for very large scale simulations will
simulation codes are nowadays sophisticated enough to provide be increasingly influenced by (and may in turn influence) the
realistic simulation of the earthquake rupture and associated evolution of computer architectures and programming models.
low frequency ground-motion for a given set of input This session is a forum for presenting advances in
parameters. We now need to provide probability distributions numerical methodology, whether the principal context is
of simulation input parameters and to take into account the observational, mathematical/numerical, or computational.
potential correlations between these parameters. One of the We invite contributions focused on development,
key challenge of seismology is then to be able then to calibrate verification and validation of numerical-modeling methods,
and analyze the physical factors that control the earthquakes and methodologically important applications especially
and the ground-motion variability. For example, it has been to earthquake ground motion and rupture dynamics.
noticed that the variability of classically determined stress Contributions on the analysis of methods, fast algorithms,
drop estimates is significantly larger than implied from the high-performance implementations, large-scale simulations,
analysis of the between-event variability of ground motion non-linear behavior, multi-scale problems, and confrontation
prediction equations (GMPEs). This observation may have of methods with data are especially encouraged.
profound implications, since stress drop is an important Conveners : Peter Moczo (moczo@fmph.uniba.sk),
input parameter for ground motion prediction, and leads Steven Day (sday@mail.sdsu.edu) and Emmanuel Chaljub
to the questions whether the variability of seismologically (Emmanuel.Chaljub@ujf-grenoble.fr)
determined earthquake source parameters is overestimated
and, in more general terms, how strongly the physics of the Objective Testing of PSHA & Earthquake Forecast Models
source reflect in ground motion variability. We encourage While there has been considerable debate in recent
submissions dealing with the link between earthquake source scientific literature as to the validity and usefulness of
physics and ground motion variability, such as studies of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) results,
GMPE between-event variability and their relation to source their application is almost ubiquitous as a fundamental
parameter variability, analysis of source parameters probability input to international building codes and major civil and
distributions, dynamic rupture effects on ground motions, and infrastructure developments. Recent destructive earthquakes
the importance of this link for hazard and risk assessment. around the world have stimulated discussions about testability
Conveners : Ralph Archuleta (ralph.archuleta@ of seismic hazard assessments. A new wealth of data provides
ucsb.edu), Fabrice Cotton (fabrice.cotton@obs.ujf- an opportunity for researchers and practitioners to ensure that
grenoble.fr) and Adrien Oth (adrien.oth@web.de) we use state-of-the-art methods and appropriate input models
informed by testing and based on thorough and objective
Microseismics in Academia, Government and Industry decision-making. Owing to the long time periods involved
Government and academic scientists have pursued the study in hazard forecasts, PSHAs will not yield a fully testable
of microseismicity for many decades, primarily in the context model in our lifetime. Furthermore, as modelling techniques
of monitoring and imaging fault zones and volcanoes. Industry become more sophisticated, how can we determine whether
involvement in microseismic studies has a similarly long history "improvements" are truly "improvements" in skill and not
in mining and geothermal settings. In the last decade, there just additional complexities? New developments in hazard
has been an explosion in interest in microseismics related to assessment are striving to build partial testability into the
the exploitation of unconventional gas and oil reservoirs. We models. In the realm of PSHA, as with any science, testing

on 09 October 2018
is not only about model validation, but is a tool to learn that affect seismic hazard estimates of onshore and offshore
about strengths and weaknesses of a model. Furthermore, faults in southern California, including fault structure, slip rate,
modern evaluation techniques can support future model paleoseismology, and Neogene tectonic evolution.
improvements. Initiatives such as the Collaboratory for the Conveners : Nate Onderdonk (nate.onderdonk@
Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) aim to develop csulb.edu) and Robert Francis (rfrancis@csulb.edu)
standardized methods and models to forecast the occurrence
and hazard resulting from future earthquakes. However, Rethinking PSHA
do these methods provide useful and practical input into The core methods behind probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
helping understand the forecast skill of PSHAs? We invite (PSHA) were first formalized by Cornell in 1968. Since that
presentations on any of the above topics, including: short-term time, the fundamental components have largely remained
earthquake forecasts, earthquake forecast model testing, unchanged in most applications: 1) a source model, often made
hazard model testing, ground-motion prediction testing up of zones of expected activity, or an active fault model
(GMPE & Simulation) and testing metric development. coupled with a smoothed seismicity model based on catalog
We also solicit submissions that aim to test the usefulness data, and; 2) empirically based ground motion prediction
of current assumptions in all elements of PSHA, including: equations that are based on several basic parameters, such as
seismic sources (fault and areal), earthquake recurrence, moment magnitude and distance. The development of the
maximum magnitude, ground motions, logic trees, and final individual components has become increasingly complex in
hazard outputs. recent years, however the basic structure has largely remained
Conveners : Danijel Schorlemmer (ds@usc.edu), unchanged. In this session we invite presentations that explore
Matthew Gerstenberger (m.gerstenberger@gns.cri.nz), some of the key assumptions currently used in PSHA and
Max Werner (max.werner@bristol.ac.uk), Trevor Allen their implications for hazard, or alternative PSHA methods
(tallen@nrcan.gc.ca), Thomas Jordan (tjordan@usc.edu) that might provide different insight into the hazard. Some
and Fabrice Cotton (fcotton@gfz-potsdam.de) examples might be the improved quantification of uncertainty
in the source modelling, and moving beyond the typical
Observing Infrasonic Sources from Ground to Space Poisson-based formulations. The development of PSH models
Seismo-acoustic sources, such as (but not limited to), volcanic is challenged by the independence of fault and catalog datasets.
eruptions, earthquakes, meteor air blasts, lightning, wind Can hybrid models be used to improve the forecasting skill
farms, and chemical explosions, are being studied using high- of PSHA? How can we best incorporate GMPEs into PSHA
density ground-based sensor networks. Such sources can when the models are becoming increasingly complex, and all
also be studied at higher altitudes using direct (pressure parameters need to be specified in advance? Are there viable
sensors on balloons or unmanned aerial vehicles) and indirect modeling alternatives for PSHA (e.g., an integrated source
(monitoring electromagnetic fluctuations in the ionosphere or model) that can improve current best-practice?
airglow emissions) measurements of the infrasonic (acoustic) Conveners : Matthew Gerstenberger (m.gerstenberger@
field, enabling new insights of source and propagation gns.cri.nz), Mark Stirling (m.stirling@gns.cri.nz) and Mark
phenomenology. This session highlights research on the Petersen (mpetersen@usgs.gov)
development and utilization of new and existing ground, high-
altitude, and space instrumentation for infrasound sensing, Seismic Imaging and Monitoring of Near-surface, and
the description and analysis of new seismo-acoustic datasets, Crustal and Global Scales: Recent Advances and Future
and the interpretation of modeling results. New theoretical Directions
and numerical developments such as seismo-acoustic waveform This session will highlight leading-edge theoretical and
modeling are also of interest for this session. practical developments in seismic imaging and monitoring
Conveners : Omar Marcillo (omarcillo@lanl.gov), applied on different scales (e.g., the meter-scale in near-surface
Stephen Arrowsmith (arrows@lanl.gov) and Lucie Rolland seismology up to the kilometer-scale in crustal seismology)
(lrolland@lanl.gov) using both active and passive seismic data. This session includes
presentations on various techniques inferring the structure
Recent Advances in Understanding the Onshore and of the Earth as well as velocity and attenuation models
Offshore Southern California Fault System derived at local, regional, and global scales, for example,
Despite being one of the best-studied fault systems in the world, ambient noise tomography and coda-wave interferometry. We
important characteristics of many active faults in southern invite both methodological studies, which are demonstrating
California remain poorly understood. These include basic the applicability of new methods, as well as studies aimed
characteristics such as fault structure, slip rate, and slip history at developing new instrumentation to contribute to this
of offshore structures and poorly exposed faults in the Los session. We welcome innovations and advances in 3D
Angeles Basin and Mojave Desert. A clearer understanding of traveltime tomography, waveform tomography, surface wave
fault behavior such as variations in slip rate through time, strain inversion, joint inversion of multiple geophysical observations
distribution across parallel faults in both space and time, and as well as multi-repeated observations of geophysical data
connectivity between fault zones is also needed. This session to detect temporal variations of large-scale environments
seeks contributions that present new data and interpretations as well as smaller structures such as volcanoes, fault zones

on 09 October 2018
and landslides. We also invite contributions highlighting the of early warning systems; incorporation of new datasets such
physical understanding of the related wave-field composition as geodetic data, gravity observations, and data from low-cost
and phenomena at different scales, its variability over space and instruments; proposed new methodologies; and related real-
time and its statistical treatment. Discussions on the pitfalls time earthquake response issues such as tsunami early warning,
and limitations of such methods and potential remedies are also damage assessment, and public communication.
welcomed. Conveners : Sarah Minson (minson@gps.caltech.edu)
Conveners : Marco Pilz (pilz@gfz-potsdam.de) and Nori and Egill Hauksson (hauksson@caltech.edu), Thomas
Nakata (nnakata@stanford.edu) Heaton (heaton@caltech.edu)
Seismic Networks, Instrumentation and Products Structural Health Monitoring and Earthquake Damage
This session presents recent advances on seismic networks, Detection in Structures
seismic instrumentation, new datasets, seismic data products Strong and even moderate nearby earthquakes can cause
and services. Poster Only significant damage to structures such as buildings, bridges,
dams, power plants and pipelines, which may result in loss
Seismic Sources and Seismicity Studies of life and injuries as well as direct and indirect monetary
This session focuses on observational studies of seismic sources, losses. Assessment of the structural health and integrity during
tectonic or not, and on studies of seismicity patterns, including or soon after the earthquake, before physical inspection is
development and enhancement of data analaysis methods to possible, may assist making timely decisions on evacuation.
enable such studies. Timely evacuation of a weakened structure would help avoid
Conveners : Christine Ruhl (cruhl@unr.edu) and Vaclav loss of life and injuries caused by a potential collapse of a
Vavrycuk (vv@ig.cas.cz) weakened structure from shaking from aftershocks. Timely
decision not to evacuate a healthy structure would avoid
Slow Earthquakes: Diversity in Fault Motion and Their needless evacuation and the costly consequences of loss of
Implications in Earthquake Dynamics function. Many methods have been developed over the years,
Earthquake faults show a variety of motion – from slow slip such as, e.g., modal, wave, performance based and statistical
and associated tremor to supershear rupture. Slow earthquakes pattern recognition methods. Such methods are generally
emerge as a major player in releasing and redistributing applicable to other disasters and to longer term condition
stress over much of the seismic cycles. They are observed monitoring. This session aims to present new developments
globally over multiple spatial and temporal scales. A unifying and findings on all aspects of the problem, from basic studies on
theory connecting this diversity and its implications on the mechanics of damage and nonlinear response of structures
the fault dynamics, however, remains elusive. Moreover, the to sensing technologies, methodologies and decision systems,
factors (fault properties, rheology, frictional and material relevant for a variety of structures and infrastructure systems.
heterogeneity etc.) controlling varied fault slip behaviors and Conveners : Maria Todorovska (mtodorov@usc.edu) and
their interplay are poorly understood. We invite abstracts that Philippe Gueguen (philippe.gueguen@ujf-grenoble.fr)
highlight different aspects of this broad spectrum of fault slip
including, but not limited to, slow earthquakes and associated Using Dense Seismic Array to Image the Subsurface and
phenomena. We are interested in slow earthquakes in all forms Monitor Earthquake Activity
and sizes – from episodic tremor and slip in the subduction Dense seismic arrays that record continuously have the
zones to seismic swarms operating in smaller scales. Studies potential to dramatically increase the resolution of subsurface
encompassing multiple styles of fault slip (slow and fast) and imaging, and they can also be used to monitor micro-seismicity.
their interactions in space and time are encouraged. We solicit However, the sensors that are used in these arrays usually
new observations and analyses from all tectonic settings using lack the low-frequency response of conventional earthquake
seismology, geodesy, numerical simulations, laboratory and monitoring networks, and are often deployed at the surface in
field experiments. noisy environments. This presents challenges for extracting the
Conveners : Abhijit Ghosh (aghosh.earth@gmail. signal from the noise. We invite scientists who have used these
com), Christodoulos Kyriakopoulos (christodoulos. types of data or have developed algorithms to work with these
kyriakopoulos@ucr.edu) and Hongfeng Yang arrays to present their work in this session.
Conveners : Robert Clayton (clay@gps.caltech.edu) and
Status and Future of Earthquake Early Warning Brandon Schmandt (bschmandt@unm.edu)
Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been built in
select parts of the world, and are currently being developed The Where, When and Why of Uncharacteristic
in several more regions including the west coast of the Earthquakes
United States. While all of these systems aim to use data Unexpectedly large and/or complex historic earthquakes, such
obtained near to the earthquake source to warn population as the 1920 Haiyuan, 1960 Chile, 1988 Spitak, 1992 Landers,
centers of imminent shaking, there is great diversity in the 2011 Tohoku, 2012 Indian Ocean quakes, among others, beg
methodologies and data types used. We invite contributions the questions: where might the next uncharacteristic event
from all areas related to EEW, such as performance reviews occur, and have geoscientists underestimated the maximum

on 09 October 2018
size and rates of these type of events? These uncharacteristic record of and processes controlling regular versus atypically
earthquakes all ruptured through hypothesized segment large events on fault systems. We welcome abstracts utilizing
boundaries that appear to impede rupture during typical the geologic record, geophysical data, crustal deformation
earthquakes on these fault systems. Southern California models and dynamic rupture models to shed insight into the
contains a number of world-class examples of complex fault behavior of these potentially devastating large earthquakes.
systems – the southern San Andreas fault system, the Eastern Conveners : Doug Yule (doug.yule@csun.edu),
California Shear Zone, and the Transverse Ranges oblique- Richard Heermance (richard.heermance@csun.edu),
thrust system – that may spawn the next surprisingly large Elizabeth Madden (ehmadden@geo.umass.edu), Michele
earthquake. With this meeting surrounded by these examples, Cooke (cooke@geo.umass.edu) and Jack Loveless
we seek contributions that provide global insight into the (jloveles@smith.edu)

on 09 October 2018
Overview of Technical Program
ORAL SESSIONS
Tuesday, 21 April
Ballroom B Ballroom C Ballroom F Ballroom G Ballroom H

8:30–9:45 AM Objective Testing Numerical The August 24, Linking Ground Structural Health
of PSHA & Modeling of 2014 South Napa, Motion and Earth- Monitoring and
Earthquake Earthquake CA Earthquake: quake Source Vari- Earthquake
Forecast Models Ground Motion, Science Results, ability (SSA/ESC Damage Detection
Rupture Dynamics Impacts and Joint Session) in Structures
and Seismic Wave Lessons Learned
10:45 AM–noon Propagation
2:15–3:30 PM Rethinking PSHA Using Dense From Newspapers Characterizing Expanding our
Seismic Array to to Numerical Ground Motions Understanding of
Image the Analyses: and Active Faults Explosion
Subsurface and Documenting and in Urban Areas Phenomenology
Monitor Understanding Through Analysis
Earthquake Earthquakes in and Modeling of
Activity Central and Seismic
Eastern North Observations and
America Complementary
4:30–5:45 PM Data Types
Wednesday, 22 April

8:30–9:45 AM Seismic Imaging Earthquake Hazards The Where, When Advances in Seismic Sources and
and Monitoring of and Risk: Drivers and and Why of High-frequency Seismicity Studies
Near-surface, Consumers of Uncharacteristic Ground Motion
10:45 AM–noon Crustal and Global Earthquake Research Earthquakes and Attenuation Applications of
Scales: Recent Tsunami Science:
Advances and Working with States
Future Directions and Communities to
Improve Tsunami
Resilience
1:30–2:45 PM Engineering and How Reliable Are Slow Earthquakes:
Public Safety Reconstructions Diversity in Fault
Concerns Raised by and Models of Motion and Their
Seismic Hazard Surface-Rupturing Implications in
Assessment Methods Earthquakes? Earthquake
Dynamics
3:45–5:00 PM 2014 National Engineering
Seismic Hazard Seismology and
Mapping Updates: Ground Motion
Hazard Changes and Prediction
Influence on Seismic
Risk
5:15–6:15 PM Joyner Lecture – Conference Center, Lower Level

on 09 October 2018
Thursday, 23 April

8:30–9:45 AM Induced Seismicity Observing Infrasonic Central Coastal Characterizing the Earthquake Processes
Sources from Ground California Potential Impacts of and Multiscale
to Space Tectonics Surface Fault Modeling and
Rupture on Characterization of
Transportation Fragmentation and
Systems Damage Patterns in
Fault Zones
10:45 AM–noon Microseismics in Central Coastal Capturing Site
Academia, California Effects in Strong
Government and Tectonics Ground Motion
Industry
1:30–2:45 PM Status and Future of Recent Advances Advances in
Earthquake Early in Understanding Earthquake Source
3:45–5:00 PM Warning the Onshore and Inversion
Offshore Southern
California Fault
System
POSTER SESSIONS
Exhibit Hall A
Tuesday r Characterizing Ground Motions and Active Faults in Urban Areas
r Expanding our Understanding of Explosion Phenomenology Through Analysis and Modeling of Seismic
Observations and Complementary Data Types
r From Newspapers to Numerical Analyses: Documenting and Understanding Earthquakes in Central and Eastern
North America
r Linking Ground Motion and Earthquake Source Variability (SSA/ESC Joint Session)
r Numerical Modeling of Earthquake Ground Motion, Rupture Dynamics and Seismic Wave Propagation
r Objective Testing of PSHA & Earthquake Forecast Models
r Rethinking PSHA
r Seismic Networks, Instrumentation and Products
r Structural Health Monitoring and Earthquake Damage Detection in Structures
r The August 24, 2014 South Napa, CA Earthquake: Science Results, Impacts and Lessons Learned
r Using Dense Seismic Array to Image the Subsurface and Monitor Earthquake Activity
Wednesday r 2014 National Seismic Hazard Mapping Updates: Hazard Changes and Influence on Seismic Risk
r Advances in High-frequency Ground Motion and Attenuation
r Applications of Tsunami Science: Working with States and Communities to Improve Tsunami Resilience
r Earthquake Hazards and Risk: Drivers and Consumers of Earthquake Research
r Engineering and Public Safety Concerns raised by Seismic Hazard Assessment Methods
r Engineering Seismology and Ground Motion Prediction
r How Reliable Are Reconstructions and Models of Surface-Rupturing Earthquakes?
r Seismic Imaging and Monitoring of Near-surface, Crustal and Global Scales: Recent Advances and Future
Directions
r Seismic Sources and Seismicity Studies
r Slow Earthquakes: Diversity in Fault Motion and Their Implications in Earthquake Dynamics
r The Where, When and Why of Uncharacteristic Earthquakes

on 09 October 2018
Thursday r Advances in Earthquake Source Inversion
r Capturing Site Effects in Strong Ground Motion
r Central Coastal California Tectonics
r Characterizing the Potential Impacts of Surface Fault Rupture on Transportation Systems
r Earthquake Processes and Multiscale Modeling and Characterization of Fragmentation and Damage Patterns in
Fault Zones
r Induced Seismicity
r Microseismics in Academia, Government and Industry
r Observing Infrasonic Sources from Ground to Space
r Recent Advances in Understanding the Onshore and Offshore Southern California Fault System
r Status and Future of Earthquake Early Warning

on 09 October 2018
Program for 2015 SSA Annual Meeting
Presenting author is indicated in bold.
Tuesday, 21 April
Time Ballroom B Ballroom C Ballroom F Ballroom G Ballroom H
Objective Testing Numerical The August 24, Linking Ground Structural Health
of PSHA & Modeling of 2014 South Napa, Motion and Monitoring and
Earthquake Earthquake CA Earthquake: Earthquake Source Earthquake
Forecast Models Ground Motion, Science Results, Variability Damage Detection
Session Chairs: Rupture Dynamics Impacts and (SSA/ESC Joint in Structures
Danijel and Seismic Wave Lessons Learned Session) Session Chairs:
Schorlemmer, Propagation Session Chairs: Session Chairs: Maria Todorovska
Matthew Session Chairs: Gareth Funning, Ralph Archuleta, and Philippe
Gerstenberger, Max Peter Moczo, Steven Benjamin Brooks Fabrice Cotton and Gueguen (see page
Werner, Trevor Day and Emmanuel and Timothy Adrien Oth (see 603)
Allen, Thomas Chaljub (see page Dawson (see page page 599)
Jordan and Fabrice 591) 595)
Cotton (see page
587)
8:30 INVITED: Some Hybrid Algorithm Seismotectonic INVITED: STUDENT: Damage
AM Thoughts on for Numerical Setting of the West Components of the Detection in
Testing Probabilities Simulation of Napa Fault and Variability of High-rise Buildings
and its Critical Seismic Wave Challenges in NGA-W2 Ground Using Dense Arrays
Importance for Propagation in Characterization for Motion Prediction of Seismic Sensors.
Science. Marzocchi, Complex Models: Seismic and Surface Models. Alatik, L. Massari, A., Kohler,
W., Jordan, T. H. Anisotropy, Faulting Hazards. M., Clayton, R.,
Attenuation, Dawson, T. E. Heaton, T., Guy, R.
Small-Scale
Heterogeneities.
Kostin, V., Lisitsa,
V., Reshetova, G.,
Tcheverda, V.,
Vishnevsky, D.
8:45 INVITED/STUDENT: Coupled Finite INVITED: Extent INVITED: Insights INVITED:
AM Data-Driven Element Simulation and Distribution of on Source Identification of
Generation of of Earthquakes and Surface Faulting Variability from Dynamic
Ground-Motion Tsunami Inception: from the M6.0 Combinations of Characteristics of a
Backbone Models A Case Study of the South Napa Theoretical Models Tall Building:
for the Logic Tree. 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake of Aug. for Fourier and Modal Analysis and
Haendel, A., Earthquake and 24, 2014. Ponti, D. Response Spectral Seismic
Kuehn, N. M., Tsunami. Karaoglu, J., Dawson, T. E., Ordinates and Interferometry.
Specht, S., H., Bielak, J. Schwartz, D. P., Advanced Mixed Fletcher, J. B.,
Scherbaum, F. Brooks, B. A., Effects Models. Ulusoy, H. S.,
DeLong, S. B., Stafford, P. J. Kalkan, E., Wen,
Hecker, S., Hudnut, W., Baker, L. M.
K. W., Kelson, K. I.,
Lienkaemper, J. J.,
Prentice, C. S., Rosa,
C. M., Rubin, R. S.,
Seitz, G. G., Sickler,
R. R., Wesling, J. R.

on 09 October 2018
Tuesday, 21 April (continued)
Objective Testing Numerical The Aug 2014 Linking Ground Structural Health
of PSHA . . . Modeling . . . Napa, CA EQ. . . Motion . . . Monitoring . . .
9:00 Revision of A New Discrete Differencing of INVITED: Stress Wave Propagation
AM Earthquake Representation of Airborne Laser Drop Variability in Buildings as
Catalogues on Heterogeneous Scanning Data and its Relationship Periodic Structures:
Probabilistic Terms: Medium for the Acquired Before and to Variability in Timoshenko Beam
Consequences on Finite-difference After the 2014 South GMPEs. Baltay, A. with Slabs Model
PSHA Validation. Modeling of Seismic Napa Earthquake. S., Hanks, T. C. and its Application
Mucciarelli, M. Wave Propagation Hudnut, K. W., to Structural System
and Earthquake Glennie, C. L., Identification and
Motion. Kristek, J., Brooks, B. A., Health Monitoring.
Moczo, P., Chaljub, Arrowsmith, J. R., Todorovska, M. I.,
E., De Martin, F., Nissen, E., Oskin, M. Ozmutlu, A.,
Kristekova, M., E., Kellogg, L. H., Ebrahimian, M.
Galis, M. Crosby, C., Delong, S.,
Dawson, T. E.,
Hoirup, D. F.,
Ericksen, T.
9:15 Finding Where 3D Simulations of Co- and Post-Seismic Magnitude System
AM Forecasts Fail. M9 Cascadia Near-field Dependence of Identification,
Michael, A. J., Earthquakes: Deformation Stress Drop: Insights Model Calibration,
Llenos, A. L. Sedimentary-Basin Associated with the from the Observed and Damage
Amplification and 2014 M6.0 South Magnitude Scaling Detection in
Ground-Motion Napa Earthquake of Ground-Motions. Layered Systems by
Variability. Frankel, Surface Rupture. Derras, B., Cotton, Using Transfer
A. D., Stephenson, Brooks, B. A., F., Drouet, S. Matrix Formulation.
W. J. Glennie, C. L., Safak, E.,
Minson, S. E., Murray, Kocakaplan, S.,
J., Hudnut, K., Kaya, Y.
Ericksen, T. L.
9:30 Retrospective Optimal Initiation INVITED: Earthquake INVITED: Southern INVITED:
AM Evaluation of of Dynamic Early Performance in California Development of
Time-Dependent Ruptures in the M 6.0 South Napa Earthquake Scaling Regional
Earthquake Forecast Numerical earthquake: UCB’s from Stable Event Earthquake Early
Models during the Simulations. Galis, algorithms ElarmS Ratio Levels. Warning System
2010-12 Canterbury, M., Pelties, C., and GlarmS. Hellweg, Mayeda, K., Walter, with Structural
New Zealand, Kristek, J., Moczo, M., Allen, R. M., W. R., Yoo, S. Health Monitoring
Earthquake P., Ampuero, J. P., Henson, I., Johanson, function toward
Sequence. Werner, Mai, P. M., Duru, K. I., Neuhauser, D., Real-time
M. J., Gerstenberger, Grapenthin, R. Earthquake
M. C., Liukis, M., Information
Marzocchi, W., Navigation.
Rhoades, D. A., Motosaka, M.,
Taroni, M., Zechar, J. Ohno, S., Mitsuji,
D., Cattania, C., K., Wang, X.
Christophersen, A.,
Hainzl, S.,
Helmstetter, A.,
Jimenez, A., Steacy,
S., Jordan, T. H.

on 09 October 2018
9:45–
10:45 Break
AM
10:45 Testing and Nonlinear Complexity in the Statistical Properties INVITED:
AM Evaluation of Simulations of Coseismic Fault of Strss Drop Predetermined
Seismic Hazard Spontaneous Geometry and in the Estimates from the Earthquake Damage
Models for Long Rupture on the Postseismic Slip Generalized Spectral Scenarios (PEDS)
Return Periods with Southern San Distribution of the Inversion of Strong for Structural
Fragile Geologic Andreas Fault. South Napa Ground Motions Health Monitoring.
Features. Stirling, Roten, D., Cui, Y., Earthquake, from Observed by K-Net, Trifunac, M. D.
M., Rood, D., Olsen, K. B., Sentinel-1a Insar KiK-Net, and the
Barrell, D., Day, S. M. and Near-Field GPS JMA Shindokei
Zondervan, A. Data. Funning, G. Network in Japan.
J., Floyd, M. A., Nakano, K.,
Walters, R. J., Kawase, H.,
Elliott, J. R., Wright, Matsushima, S.
T. J., Marinkovic, P.,
Larsen, Y.
11:00 INVITED: Testing From Stiffness to INVITED: How Do Nonlinear
AM Probabilistic Seismic Strength in Coseismic and Earthquake Stress Dynamics Induced
Hazard Estimates Large-Scale Ground Postseismic Drop Variations in a Structure By
Against Deformation Deformation Reflect in Strong Seismic and
Observations, Forecasting. Shi, J., History of the Motion Intensity Environmental
Application Asimaki, D. August 2014 Mw Observations? Oth, Loading. Gueguen,
Examples. Beauval, 6.0 South Napa A., Miyake, H., P., Johnson, P. A.,
C., Tasan, H., Earthquake Bindi, D. Roux, P.
Helmstetter, A. Measured with
InSAR Time Series.
Fielding, E. J.,
Milillo, P.,
Bürgmann, R.,
Samsonov, S., Yun,
S. H., Brooks, B.,
Hudnut, K.,
Lienkaemper, J.,
Agram, P.
11:15 INVITED: Direct Surface-Wave INVITED: Macroseismic Application of
AM Verification of Propagation Modes Finite-Source Intensity Rotation Rate
Seismic Hazard in the Valley of Modeling of the Distributions: Sensors in Structural
Maps. Mak, S., Mexico: Insights South Napa Robust Indicators of Health Monitoring
Schorlemmer, D. from Realistic 3D Earthquake. Dreger, Stress Drop? of Building
Earthquake D. S., Woodell, K. Hough, S. E. Structures.
Simulations. E., Huang, M. H. Zembaty, Z., Bobra,
Sanabria, J. D., P., Kokot, S.
Cruz-Atienza, V.
M., Tago, J.,
Chaljub, E., Virieux, J.

on 09 October 2018
11:30 INVITED: Metrics, STUDENT: INVITED: INVITED: Recipe System
AM Bayes, and Evaluation of Three-Dimensional for Predicting Identification of a
BOGSAT: How To Attenuation Models Ground Motion Strong Ground 5-Storied
Assess And Revise (Q-Vs Simulations of the Motion from Steel-Frame
Earthquake Hazard Relationships) used 2014 South Napa Subduction Structure based on
Maps. Stein, S., in Physics-Based Earthquake using Earthquake Natural Frequency
Brooks, E., Ground-Motion the USGS Scenarios. Miyake, Deviation with
Spencer, B. Earthquake Geologic/Seismic H., Koketsu, K., Known Mass
Simulation. Model and Various Irikura, K. Loading.
Khoshnevis, N., Source Models. Hatakeyama, N.,
Taborda, R. Rodgers, A. J., Kawase, H.,
Pitarka, A., Dreger, Matsushima, S.
D. S., Aagaard, B. T.
11:45 STUDENT: Progress of the Ground-Motion Anatomy of Non-Stationary vs.
AM Assessing the Southern California Simulations of 3-D Near-Field Nonlinear Effects
Long-term Earthquake Center Basin Effects for Ground-Shaking Recorded During
Performance Technical Activity Aftershocks from Generated by Earthquakes on
Earthquake Hazard Group on Ground the 2014 South Dynamic Rupture Monitored
Maps. Brooks, E., Motion Simulation Napa Earthquake. Simulations. Buildings.
Stein, S., Validation. Aagaard, B. T., Cauzzi, C., Dalguer, Ditommaso, R.,
Spencer, B. D. Rezaeian, S., Rodgers, A. J., L., Baumann, C., Mucciarelli, M.,
Luco, N. Pitarka, A. Giardini, D. Ponzo, F. C.
Noon–
2:15 Lunch
PM

on 09 October 2018
Rethinking PSHA Using Dense Seismic From Newspapers to Characterizing Expanding our
Session Chairs: Array to Image the Numerical Analyses: Ground Motions Understanding of
Matthew Subsurface and Documenting and and Active Faults Explosion
Gerstenberger, Mark Monitor Earthquake Understanding in Urban Areas Phenomenology
Stirling and Mark Activity Earthquakes in Session Chairs: Lee Through Analysis
Petersen (see page Session Chairs: Central and Eastern Liberty and Thomas and Modeling of
589) Robert Clayton and North America Pratt (see page 601) Seismic
Brandon Schmandt Session Chairs: Observations and
(see page 593) Robert Williams, Complementary
Oliver Boyd and Data Types
William Levandowski Session Chairs: Robert
(see page 597) Abbott, Charlotte
Rowe and Brian
Stump (see page 605)
2:15 Rethinking PSHA: STUDENT: Wave Quantifying Urban Hazard Map Effect of
PM the Next Steps With Gradiometry and its Interactions among Pilot Study For The Geomechanical
the New Zealand Link with Helmholtz Gravity-derived Stress, Charleston, SC Properties Anisotropy
National Seismic Tomography Applied Far-field Quadrangle. on the Near-field and
Hazard Model. to USArray. Liu, Y., Compression, and Cramer, C., Jaume, the Far-field Seismic
Gerstenberger, M. Holt, W. E. Inherited Structures S., Levine, N., Braud, Responses due to
C., Stirling, M. W., in the Central United A., Chapman, M. Underground
McVerry, G., States. Levandowski, Explosions. Vorobiev,
Rhoades, D. A., W. B., Boyd, O. S. O. Y., Ezzedine, S. M.,
Harte, D., Van Antoun, T. H., Glenn,
Dissen, R., Nicol, A., L. A.
Christophersen, A.,
Fry, B., Zhao, J.
2:30 INVITED: Comparison of the Exploring STUDENT: Modeling
PM UCERF3: Lessons Ray Ansatz and Full Paleoseismic Signals Near-Surface, Near-Source
Learned. Page, M. Wave Field Solution from Caves in the Site-Specific, and Phenomenology with
T., Field, E. H., for Wave Central and Eastern Frequency- a Novel Visco-Plastic
Milner, K. R. Gradiometry in the USA. Tinsley, J. C., Dependent Continuum Model
SAFOD Borehole. Paces, J. B., Amplification of and its Implications
Langston, C. A., Panno, S. V. Seismic Strong on Close-In Seismic
Ayele, M. Ground Motions in Observables. Rougier,
Taipei Basin. E., Knight, E. E.,
Young, B. A., Yang, X., Patton, H. J.
Chen, K. C., Chiu, J.
M., Langston, C. A.
2:45 INVITED: Basic Wave Are Intraplate Faults Fault Kinematics Shear Release from
PM Observations on Propagation Results Accruing Strain? Beneath the Explosive Loading at a
UCERF3 and Its from a Highly-Dense Calais, E., Craig, T. J. Southern Puget Jointed Test Site.
Applications to Seismic Array on the Lowland, Steedman, D. W.,
Site-Specific PSHA. San Jacinto Fault Washington State: Bradley, C. R.
Biasi, G. P. Zone. Ben-Zion, Y., Strain Partitioning
Vernon, F., Ozakin, in the Northern
Y., Zigone, D., Ross, Cascadia Forearc.
Z., Meng, H., White, Pratt, T., Liberty, L.
M., Reyes, J., Hollis,
D., Barklage, M.

on 09 October 2018
Rethinking PSHA Using Dense From Newpapers Char Ground Expanding
Seismic Array . . . to Num . . . Motions . . . Understanding . . .
3:00 Is There Evidence Determining Near STUDENT: Noise or Depth-dependent Numerical
PM for the Basic Surface Structure in Signal? Trying to Soil Amplification Investigation of the
Assumption for the the Los Angeles Understand GPS Model for Georgia Impact of the
Standard Basin Using Velocity Basin in Greater Geological and
Probabilistic Seismic Correlation of Uncertainties in Vancouver, British Geomechanical
Hazard Assessment? Dense Arrays. Central-Eastern Columbia, Canada. Properties on the
Wyss, M. Clayton, R., Tsai, V. North America. Kim, B., Seyhan, E. Seismo-Acoustic
Dmitrieva, K., Responses of
Segall, P. Underground
Explosions.
Ezzedine, S. M.,
Vorobiev, V. Y.,
Rodgers, A., Pitarka,
A., Glenn, L. A.,
Antoun, T. H.
3:15 Seismic Efficiency: STUDENT: Active Crustal Structure STUDENT: STUDENT:
PM Mechanisms and Faulting in Below the Southern Geomorphic Seismoacoustics of
Global Perspectives. Long-Beach, CA, Appalachian Blue Mapping and Explosions at
LaForge, R., from Dense Array Ridge and Valley Geophysical Studies Varying Scaled
Ostenaa, D., Addo, Data. Inbal, A., and Ridge to Assess the Seismic Depth of Burial.
K., Lawrence, M. Clayton, R., Provinces: Hazard along the Bowman, D. C.,
Ampuero, J. P. Implications for North Boqueron Lees, J. M.,
National Seismic Bay-Punta Montalva Taddeucci, J.,
Hazard Maps. Fault Zone: A Graettinger, A. H.,
Powell, C. A. Capable Fault Sonder, I.,
System In Valentine, G.
Southwestern
Puerto Rico.
Adames, R.,
Asencio, E.
3:30–
4:15 Break
PM
4:30 INVITED: Localizing and The Source of the San Andreas Fault Effect of the Cavity
PM Project’17: A Monitoring 1886 Charleston Surface Gas Volume on
Collaboration of Coherent Earthquake: Deformation Seismic Coupling
Probabilistic Seismic Phenomena in an Similarities of Modeling for for Underground
Hazard Analysis Urban Current Seismicity Protection of Explosions.
(PSHA) Modelers Environment. in the Epicentral Southern California Stroujkova, A.
and Users to Riahi, N., Area with the Critical
Develop Ground Gerstoft, P. Aftershocks of the Infrastructure. de
Motion Maps for M 5.8 Mineral, Lamare, R. G.,
the 2024 Virginia Earthquake Weldon, R. J., Yule,
International of 2011. Chapman, J. D., Hammond,
Building Code. M. C., Hardy, A. C., W. C., Freeman, S.
Luco, N., Tong, M., Beale, J. A., Wu, Q. T., Rodriguez, A. J.
Hamburger, R.,
Schneider, P.,
Rezaeian, S.

on 09 October 2018
Rethinking PSHA Using Dense From Newpapers Char Ground Expanding
Seismic Array . . . to Num . . . Motions . . . Understanding . . .
4:45 INVITED: Event Matched Filter STUDENT: Surface and Body International
PM Characterization for Detection of Coulomb Stress Wave Active Source Monitoring System
Risk Models: from Microseismicity in Changes due to the Imaging with a Correlation
Segment-Centered to Long Beach with a 2011 Mw 5.8 Multicomponent Detection at the
a Regional 5200-station Dense Mineral, Virginia Land Streamer: a North Korean
Perspective. The Case Array. Peng, Z., Li, Earthquake. Wu, New Approach to Nuclear Test Site at
of NZEQ. Fitzenz, D. Z., Meng, X., Inbal, Q., Chapman, M. C. Urban Earthquake Punggye-ri with
D., Nyst, M. A., Hollis, D., Hazard Insights from the
Ampuero, J. P. Assessments. Source Physics
Liberty, L. M., Experiment. Ford,
Gribler, G. S. R., Walter, W. R.,
Dodge, D. A.,
Hauk, T. F.
5:00 Canada’s 5th Detection and Using Modern Near-Surface Fault Fusing Multiple
PM Generation Seismic Location of Geophysical Data to Trace Identification Geophysical
Hazard Model for the Microseismic Events Look for an Active Using Guided-Wave Signatures to Detect
2015 National at Mt St Helens Fault at the Site of PGV and Small Chemical
Building Code of from Dense Nodal an Historic CEUS Tomographic Explosions At Local
Canada. Allen, T. I., Data. Hansen, S. Event: The 1727 Vp/Vs Ratios. Distances.
Adams, J., Halchuk, M., Schmandt, B., Newburyport, MA Catchings, R. D., Carmichael, J. D.,
S., Rogers, G. C. Levander, A., Earthquake. Goldman, M. R., Arrowsmith, S. J.,
Kiser, E. Ebel, J. E. Rymer, M. J., Nemzek, R. J., Setnz,
Sickler, R. R., Criley, K., Anderson, D. N.
C. J., Chan, J. H.
5:15 The Roadmap for STUDENT: Precise Great Bay UAVSAR Remote Exploring
PM Updating the Italian Relative Earthquake Lineament: Cause of Sensing Method for Correlation
Seismic Hazard Depth the 1755 Cape Ann, Determining Methods of
Model. Meletti, C., Determination Massachusetts, Few-Mm Surface Identifying
Marzocchi, W., Using Array Earthquake? Fracture Slip. Explosions. Walter,
D’Amico, V., Faenza, Processing Marple, R. T., Parker, J. W., W. R., Ford, S. R.,
L., Martinelli, F., Techniques. Florez, Altamura, R. J., Donnellan, A., Dodge, D., Pyle, M.,
Roselli, P., Taroni, M., M. A., Prieto, G. A. Hurd, J. D. Glasscoe, M. T., Hauk, T.
Visini, F. Stough, T. M.,
Pierce, M., Wang, J.
5:30 STUDENT: Very Low Velocity Ground Motion UAVSAR P-coda and Ms U
PM Operational Anomaly Detected Prediction Observation of Calibration for
Earthquake by Analysis of CCF Equations for Active Structures Improved Event
Forecasting in in a Dense Network. Eastern North Associated with the Identification.
California: A Iglesias, A., America Using a 2014 M 5.1 La Napoli, V., Russell,
Prototype System Córdoba-Montiel, Hybrid Empirical Habra Earthquake. D., Yoo, S.,
Combining Ucerf3 F., Hjörleifsdóttir, Method. Pezeshk, Donnellan, A., Mayeda, K.
and Cybershake. V., Singh, S. K. S., Zandieh, A., Parker, J. W., Grant
Milner, K. R., Jordan, Campbell, K. W., Ludwig, L., Rundle,
T. H., The Working Tavakoli, B. J. B., Hauksson, E.
Group on California
Earthquake
Probabilities and The
CyberShake
Collaboration

on 09 October 2018
Tuesday, 21 April Poster Sessions 15. The December 1, 2014 Flagstaff, Arizona Earthquake
(Mw4.7). Brumbaugh, D., Young, J.
Characterizing Ground Motions and Active Faults in 16. Damage Features and Strong Ground Motion
Urban Areas (see page 608) Characteristics of Ludian Ms6.5 Earthquake in Yunnan
Province, China. Qiao, S., Liu, A. W., Chen, X. L., Wen,
Z. P., Cui, J. W.
1. STUDENT: Characterizing the Recent Behavior of the
Ventura Blind Thrust Fault: Results from the Brookshire
Avenue, Ventura, Study Site. Grenader, J. R., Dolan, J. Expanding our Understanding of Explosion
F., McAuliffe, L. J., Rhodes, E. J., Shaw, J. H., Pratt, T. L., Phenomenology Through Analysis and Modeling of
Hubbard, J. Seismic Observations and Complementary Data Types
2. Lidar and Geophysical Mapping of the Rodgers Creek- (see page 611)
Healdsburg Fault Through Santa Rosa, California.
Hecker, S., Langenheim, V. E., Williams, R. A.,
Hitchcock, C. S., DeLong, S. B.
3. Lidar identifies source for 1872 earthquake near Chelan, 17. Geologic Cross Sections Constructed Along Five
Washington. Sherrod, B. L. Geophone Lines in Place for Source Physics Experiment
4. Enhanced Seismic Monitoring for British Columbia’s Shots at the Nevada National Security Site. Huckins-
North Coast. Brillon, C., Allen, T. I. Gang, H. E., Reed, D. N., Mercadante, J. M., Drellack,
5. Shear-Wave Velocity in the Seattle Basin Characterized S. L., Prothro, L. B., Townsend, M. J.
Through KRSPAC: Insights from a New Approach to 18. Developing a 3-D Seismic-Attribute Framework Model
Basin-Scale Vs Imaging. Stephenson, W. J., Odum, J. K., of Yucca Flat, Nevada National Security Site. Prothro,
Asten, M. W., Frankel, A. D. L. B., Townsend, M. J., Huckins-Gang, H. E., Drellack,
6. Surface Wave Velocity Measurements in the San S. L., Reed, D. N., Kincaid, T. R., Day, K. E.
Francisco Bay Delta Region. Craig, M. S., Hayashi, K., 19. Representation of Damage Zones Associated with
Shuler, S., Jones, M., Roughley, C., Galvin, J. Underground Nuclear Explosions in a 3-D Seismic-
7. A Local Seismicity Study at the Central Part of the Attribute Model of Yucca Flat, Nevada National
Magdalena Shelf, in the Pacific Margin of Baja California Security Site. Townsend, M. J., Prothro, L. B., Drellack,
Sur, Mexico. Munguía, L., González, M., Navarro, M., S. L.
Valdez, T., Mayer, S., Aguirre, A., Wong, V., Luna, M. 20. Synthesis of Geologic and Historical Seismic Data from
8. Investigating the Historical Seismicity of the Indonesian Nuclear and Chemical Explosions to Characterize the
Archipelago using Macroseismic Intensity Observations. Source Physics Experiment Dry Alluvium Geology Site.
Martin, S. S., Bradley, K., Hubbard, J., Hananto, N. D., Rodgers, A. J., Wagoner, J., Pitarka, A., Helmberger, D.
Sieh, K., Singh, S. C. V., Harben, P., Prothro, L.
9. Preliminary Results of Crustal Structure Beneath 21. Well Log Correlation of the Source Physics Experiment
Nasiriyah and Basra Areas, Southern Iraq, Using (SPE) Phase I Test Bed. Snelson, C. M., Coblentz, D.,
Inversion of Fundamental Mode Rayleigh Wave Townsend, M. J., Prothro, L.
Dispersion Curves. Mahdi, H., Al-Mohaned, R., Al- 22. Introducing PAsTA: A Statistical Framework for
Zubairi, Z., Gok, R. Association of Multi-Phenomenologies. Euler, G.
10. Ground Motion Simulation in Azerbaijan. Gok, R., G., Blom, P. S., Arrowsmith, S. J., Anderson,
Pitarka, A., Kazimova, S., Yetirmishli G., G. D. N.
11. What’s Shaking in DC?: Measuring the Variations in 23. STUDENT: The Effects of 3D Heterogeneity on
Earthquake Ground Motions in Washington, DC. Pratt, Regional Moment Tensor Source-Type Discrimination.
T. L., Hough, S. E., Horton, J. W., Chapman, M. C., Chiang, A., Dreger, D. S., Pitarka, A., Ford, S. R.
Beale, J. N. 24. Locating the Origin of Scattered Waves By Simulating
12. Seismic and Liquefaction Hazard Maps For the St. Time Reversal of the Seismic Wavefield. Myers,
Louis Metropolitan Area. Cramer, C., Williams, R., S. C., Pitarka, A., Simmons, N. A., Sjogreen, B.,
Boyd, O., Bauer, R., Voigt, V., Pierce, L., Chung, J., Johannesson, G.
Rogers, D. 25. Pn Spreading and Attenuation around Korean Peninsula
13. STUDENT: Passive Source Study in the San Gorgonio Constrained with Observations from the North Korean
Pass, CA. Tarnowski, J. M., Ghosh, A., Oglesby, D. D. Nuclear Tests. Zhao, L. F., Xie, X. B., Tian, B. F., Chen,
14. Towards Constructing “Visible” Disaster Mitigation Q. F., Hao, T. Y., Yao, Z. X.
Community Network in Yokohama, Japan. Kim, A., 26. Coupling Hydrodynamic and Wave Propagation
Uematsu, H., Iwamoto, S., Sasaki, A., Hoshino, Y., Modeling for Waveform Modeling of SPE. Larmat, C.
Takeuchi, T. S., Steedman, D. W., Rougier, E., Bradley, C.

on 09 October 2018
27. Source Time Function and RDP of Nuclear/Chemical 42. Peverly Brook Scarp and Lineament of Southeastern
Explosions Using Time-Domain Convolution. Saikia, New Hampshire, USA: A Late Pleistocene or Younger
C. K., Woods, M., Dwyer, J. J. Fault Scarp? Marple, R. T., Altamura, R. J., Hurd, J. D.
28. Sensitivity Analysis of the Far-Field Motion From the 43. New Faults Imaged Beneath the Daytona Beach Sand
SPE3 Underground Chemical Explosion. Pitarka, A., Blow Lineament near Marianna, Arkansas. Odum, J. K.,
Ezzedine, S. M., Vorobiev, O. Y., Antoun, T. H., Glenn, Tuttle, M. P., Williams, R. A., Stephenson, W. J., Al-
L. A., Mellors, R. J., Walter, W. R. Shukri, H. J.
29. Regional Attenuation of Southern Nevada Using
Multiphase Inversion. Pyle, M. L., Walter, W. R.,
Pasyanos, M. E. Linking Ground Motion and Earthquake Source
30. An Expanded Feature Set for Regional Seismic Variability (SSA/ESC Joint Session) (see page 617)
Discrimination. MacCarthy, J. K., Hartse, H. E.,
Anderson, D. N. 44. STUDENT: Do We Need to Consider Off-Fault Material
Heterogeneities in Dynamic Rupture Simulations?. Ma,
X., Elbanna, A. E.
From Newspapers to Numerical Analyses: Documenting 45. Broadband Ground Motions from Dynamic Models
and Understanding Earthquakes in Central and Eastern of Rupture on the Northern San Jacinto Fault, and
North America (see page 614) Comparison with Precariously Balanced Rocks. Lozos,
J. C., Olsen, K. B., Brune, J. N., Takedatsu, R., Brune, R.
31. New Research and Monitoring Opportunities with the J., Oglesby, D. D.
Central and Eastern United States Seismic Network. 46. Quantifying the Variability of Finite Earthquake Source
Sumy, D. F., Woodward, R. L., Frassetto, A. M., Busby, Processes with 1-Point and 2-Point Statistics. Song, S. G.
R. W. 47. Hybrid Broadband Ground Motion Simulation Using
32. Sharpening the Focus: Possibilities and Pitfalls of New Both Dynamic and Stochastic Methods: Application to
Madrid Earthquake Historical Research. Moran, N. K. the Central Marmara Fault (Turkey). Herrero, A. F.,
33. STUDENT: Regression Relationships Between Modified Aochi, H., Akinci, A.
Mercalli Intensities and Ground Motion Parameters. 48. Kinematic Rupture Characterization for Ground
Ogweno, L. P., Cramer, C. H. Motion Simulation of Shallow Crustal Earthquakes.
34. Development of GMPEs with Multiple Region-Specific Graves, R. W., Pitarka, A.
Random Effects: the PEER NGA-East Example. Kuehn, 49. Variability of Long-Period Ground Motions from M7
N. M., Hollenback, J., Goulet, C., Abrahamson, N. Earthquake Simulations on the Salt Lake City Segment,
35. STUDENT: Hybrid Empirical Ground-Motion Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah. Moschetti, M. P., Hartzell,
Prediction Equations for the Gulf Coast Region. Haji- S. H., Ramirez-Guzman, L., Angster, S., Frankel, A.
Soltani, A., Pezeshk, S., Zandieh, A. 50. STUDENT: Focal Mechanism Dependence of Radiated
36. STUDENT: Anisotropy Beneath the New Madrid Seismic Energy for Moderate and Large Earthquakes.
Seismic Zone – A Study of Shear Wave Splitting. Kiuchi, R., Mori, J. J.
Nyamwandha, C. A., Powell, C. A. 51. The Global SCARDEC Source Database to Constrain
37. Lithospheric Structure Beneath Northern Mississippi Ground Motion Simulation Input Parameters and their
Embayment from Joint Inversion of Surface Wave Variability. Courboulex, F., Causse, M., Vallee, M.,
Dispersion and Receiver Functions. Su, H., Herrmann, Chounet, A., Alfonso-Naya, V.
R. B., Guo, H. 52. Subduction Interface Fault Scaling Relationships
38. Joint Inversion of Surface Wave Dispersion and Receiver to Facilitate Rapid Ground-Shaking and Impact
Functions for Crustal Structure in Oklahoma. Guo, H., Assessments. Allen, T. I., Hayes, G. P.
Herrmann, R. B., Su, H.
39. Structure of the Moho in Northern New York and New
Numerical Modeling of Earthquake Ground Motion,
England Using Seismic Refraction and Receiver Function
Rupture Dynamics and Seismic Wave Propagation (see
Observations. Cipar, J.
page 619)
40. Comparison of Magnitude Scales at Very Short
Distances: The Charlevoix, Quebec, Seismic Zone. Bent,
A. L., Vadnais, F. 53. Comparisons of Kinematic Rupture Models Generated
41. Crustal Structure of the St. Lawrence Corridor from With an Asperity Modeling Technique and GP2014
Teleseismic Receiver Functions and a Temporary Method. Pitarka, A., Graves, R., Somerville, P., Irikura,
Broadband Array. Bent, A. L., Kao, H. K., Miyake, H.

on 09 October 2018
54. STUDENT: Seismic Source Spectra and Estimated Stress 67. New Empirical Ground-Motion Prediction Equations
Drop from Complex Faulting Behaviors. Wang, Y., Day, for East Malaysia and Borneo Island. Adnan, A. B.,
S. M., Shearer, P. M. Harith, N. S., Shoushtari, A. V.
55. STUDENT: SCEC Broadband Platform Simulations for 68. Seismic Excitation and Modeling of Precarious Rocks
the PEER NGA-East Project. Bayless, J. R., Goulet, C. near Los Alamos, New Mexico. Menq, F., Macfarlane, E.,
A., Hollenback, J. Stokoe, K., Schultz-Fellenz, E., Lee, R.
56. STUDENT: Near-Field Rotational Strong Ground 69. Testing of Earthquake and the Resulting Ground-
Motion Simulation Using an EGF Methodology and a Motion forecasts: A Difficult Task. Wang, Z.
New 6DOF Data Set. Yin, J., Nigbor, R., Chen, Q. 70. Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability
57. 3D Numerical Simulations of Earthquake Ground - Global Activities. Schorlemmer, D., Gerstenberger, M.
Motion in Sedimentary Basins: Verification and C., Hirata, N., Jordan, T. H., Liukis, M., Marzocchi, W.,
Comparison of Methods. Chaljub, E., Moczo, P., Rhoades, D. A., Tsuruoka, H., Werner, M., Zechar, J.,
Kristek, J., Maufroy, E., De Martin, F., Kristekova, M., The CSEP Working Group
Cipciar, A., Hollender, F., Bard, P.-Y., Klin, P., Priolo, E., 71. Current Status of the Collaboratory for the Study of
Zhang, Z., Zhang, W., Chen, X. Earthquake Predictability. Liukis, M., Werner, M.,
58. Modeling of 1D Wave Propagation in Nonlinear Soils Schorlemmer, D., Yu, J., Maechling, P. J., Zechar, J.,
using the Elasto-plastic Iwan Model by Four Numerical Jordan, T. H., The CSEP Working Group
Schemes. Mercerat, E. D., Bonilla-Hidalgo, F., De 72. A New Way to Calculate Static Stress Change: Improved
Martin, F., Delavaud, E., Gelis, C., Glinsky, N., Kristek, Aftershock Forecasting. Segou, M. S., Parsons, T. P.
J., Moczo, P., Oral, E., Santisi, M.P. , Richterova, A.
59. Modeling Long-period Seismic Waves in the Gulf Region
from Distant Large Earthquakes. Cakti, E., Sesetyan, K., Rethinking PSHA (see page 623)
Madariaga, R., Harmandar, E.
60. Near-Field Coseismic Tilt Motions Measured By
Collocated High-Rate Gps and Accelerometers During 73. Improved Regression Relations for Earthquake Source
the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake Parameters. Wells, D. L., Youngs, R. R.
and Their Comparison to Synthetics Predicted With 74. Ranking of Scaling Relations. Leonard, M.
Kinematic Source Models. Geng, J., Bock, Y., Crowell, 75. Scaling Relationships for Partially Creeping Faults.
B. W., Goldberg, D. E., Melgar, D., Wang, R., Zhang, Y. Hough, S. E., Page, M.
61. Effect of Varying Dip Angle on the Dynamic Rupture 76. Impact from Magnitude-Rupture Length Uncertainty
of the Mw 7.2 El-Mayor Cucapah Earthquake, April 4, on Seismic Hazard and Risk in the Central and Eastern
2010. Kyriakopoulos, C., Oglesby, D., Funning, G. J. United States. Apel, E., Nyst, M., Kane, D.
62. The 1927 Jericho Earthquake Revisited – Comparison 77. Estimating Magnitudes of Large Earthquakes from
with Numerical Results Using the Distributed Slip Rupture Length of Faults with Low Slip Rates.
Model. Shani-Kadmiel, S., Tsesarsky, M., Gvirtzman, Z. Anderson, J. G., Wesnousky, S. G., Biasi, G. P.
63. Homogenization of the Wave Equation for Interaction 78. Revisiting the Fault Magnitude Frequency Distribution
between Explosive Source and Local Heterogeneities. for Site-Specific PSHA. Biasi, G. P., Thompson, S.,
Burgos, G., Capdeville, Y., Guillot, L. AbramsonWard, H.
64. On Adequacy of Plane-Wave Approximation for 79. Segmenting the Aleutian Megathrust. Porto, N. M.,
Evaluating Near-Field Seismic Rotational Ground Fitzenz, D. D.
Motion: Case of SH Source. Singla, V. K., Gupta, V. K. 80. Implementing the Effect of the Rupture Directivity
65. STUDENT: Virtual Quake: The Software Formerly on PSHA Maps: Application to the Marmara Region
Known as Virtual California. Schultz, K. W., Sachs, (Turkey). Akinci, A., Spagnuolo, E., Herrero, A.,
M. K., Heien, E. M., Yoder, M. R., Turcotte, D. L., Pucci, S.
Donnellan, A., Rundle, J. B. 81. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments for Taiwan.
Wang, Y. J., Chan, C. H., Lee, Y. T., Ma, K. F., Shyu, J.
B. H.
Objective Testing of PSHA & Earthquake Forecast 82. Off-Fault Strain-Rate Estimation and Application to the
Models (see page 621) Seismic Hazard Analysis. Zeng, Y., Shen, Z. K., Petersen,
M. D.
83. Impact of Catalog Declustering Approach on Hazard
66. Spectral Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for and Risk in Mexico. Kane, D., Woessner, J., Apel, E.,
Sumatran Subduction Interface Earthquakes based on Nyst, M.
Recorded Data in Peninsular Malaysia. Adnan, A. B., 84. Functional PSHA. Powers, P. M.
Shoushtari, A. V., Harith, N. S. 85. GMPE Space. Chiou, B.

on 09 October 2018
86. Selecting and Weighting of GMPEs for PSHA based on 97. Development of an Active Source Field Calibration
High-Dimensional Visualization Tools. Kuehn, N. M., System. Zeiler, C. P.
Abrahamson, N. 98. Installation of High-Frequency Array and Broadband
87. Role of Seismic Zonation of the Northern Apennines, Seismic Stations in South Central Iraq. Al-Shukri, H.,
GMPEs and hazard software for PSHA evaluation in Mahdi, H., Abd, N., Chlaib, H., Ramthan, A., Gok, R.
Emilia-Romagna, Italy. Mucciarelli, M., Santulin, M.,
Tamaro, A., Rebez, A., Sandron, D., Slejko, D., Martelli,
L., Sani, F., Bonini, M., Corti, G.
88. A Contemporary Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Structural Health Monitoring and Earthquake Damage
Assessment (PSHA) Framework for Iraq and Detection in Structures (see page 628)
Neighboring Regions. Onur, T., Gok, R., Abdulnaby,
W., Shakir, A. M., Numan, N., Mahdi, H.,
Al-Shukri, H. 99. Earthquake Damage Estimation of the Building
Inventory in the Valley of Mexico based on Semi-
coupled Long Period (T>1s) Large Scale 3D Earthquake
Seismic Networks, Instrumentation and Products (see Simulations and Building Models. Quiroz-Ramirez, A.,
page 626) Ramirez-Guzman, L.
100. Data-Driven Post-Earthquake Rapid Structural Safety
89. Compilation of an Earthquake Catalog for Iraq and Assessment. Goulet, J. A., Michel, C., Der Kiureghian, A.
Neighboring Regions. Onur, T., Gok, R., Dodge, D. A., 101. STUDENT: A New Paradigm for Structural Health
Abdulnaby, W., Mahdi, H. Monitoring and Post-Disaster Damage Assessment of
90. Caltech/USGS Southern California Seismic Network Civil Structures. Ebrahimian, H., Astroza, R., Conte, J.
(SCSN): Operations and Future Plans. Bhadha, R., P.
Andrews, J., Guiwits, S., Hauksson, E., Watkins, M., 102. Multi-sensor, Multi-scale Structural Health Monitoring
Crummey, J., Thomas, V. I. of Damage to the Watts Towers. Abazarsa, F., English,
91. Products and Services Available from the Southern J., Nigbor, R., Preusser, F., Taciroglu, E.
California Earthquake Data Center. Yu, E., Acharya, 103. STUDENT: A Seismogeodetic Approach to Building
P., Bhaskaran, A., Chen, S., Chowdhury, F., Hutton, K., Monitoring Using Low-Cost MEMS Accelerometers.
Hauksson, E., Clayton, R. W. Saunders, J. K., Bock, Y., Fleischman, R., Geng, J.,
92. The ANSS Station Information System: A Centralized Goldberg, D. E., Haase, J. S., Melgar, D., Nema, A.,
Station Metadata Repository for Populating, Managing Offield, D. G., Restrepo, J., Squibb, M., Zhang, Z.
and Distributing Seismic Station Metadata. Yu, 104. STUDENT: Time-Wave Velocity Analysis for Early
E., Chowdhury, F., Acharya, P., Kientz, S., Earthquake Damage Detection in Buildings: Application
Thomas, V. to a Damaged Full-Scale RC Building. Rahmani, M.,
93. Latest Web Service and Data Product Developments At Ebrahimian, M., Todorovska, M. I.
the IRIS DMC. Trabant, C., Hutko, A., Van Fossen, M., 105. STUDENT: Is Ambient Excitation as Effective as the
Ahern, T., Weekly, R., Bahavar, M. Larger Amplitude Earthquake Excitation for Detecting
94. Tracking Station Noise Characteristics in Alaska Using Earthquake Damage in Full-Scale Structures? Some
IRIS MUSTANG Web Services. Bruton, C. P., Ruppert, Results Based on Shake Table Tests of a Full-Scale 7-
N. A., Frassetto, A. Story Building Slice. Ebrahimian, M., Todorovska, M. I.
95. Challenges and Solutions for Placing a Seismometer on 106. Using Structural Health Monitoring Techniques to
Mars. Hurst, K. J., Lognonne, P., Laudet, P., Banerdt, Determine the Effect of Infill Walls on Dynamic
W. B., de Raucourt, S., Deleuze, M., Ijpelaan, F., Kerjean, Behavior of Steel Structures. Sumer, Y., Boru, E.,
L., Perez, R., Pont, G., Sylvestre-Baron, A., Verdier, Agcakoca, E., Aktas, M., Kuyuk, H. S.
N., Bahandari, P., Denise, R., Ervin, J., Feldman, J., 107. The Feasibility Examination of Extracting Story-by-
Hagman, M., Klein, K., Mikellides, I., Lin, J., Onufer, story Shear-wave Velocity From Microtremor Records
N., Trebi-Ollennu, A., Umland, J., Giardini, D., Zweifel, of High-rise Buildings. Wang, X., Masaki, K., Irikura,
P.,Bramanti, C., Pike, W.T., Calcutt, S., Mimoun, D., K., Motosaka, M.
Bierwirth, M., Christensen, U. and the SEIS/InSight 108. STUDENT: Maximum Response Evaluation of
Instrument Team. Traditional Wooden Buildings based on Seismic
96. STUDENT: Development of the Next Generation of Observation and Experimental Result. Sugino, M.,
Seismological Instrumentation for Polar Environments. Ohmura, S., Hayashi, Y.
Winberry, J. P., Huerta, A. D., Bernsen, S. P., Parker, 109. Low Price Seismic and Structural Response
T., Carpenter, P., Woodward, R., Beaudoin, B., Bilek, S., Measurement Method Using Smart Devices. Dang, J.,
Anderson, K. Wang, X., Shrestha, A., Kikuchi, Y.

on 09 October 2018
110. Significant Change Detection from Airborne Lidar Point J. R., Jo, M., Manipon, G. J., Agram, P., Moore, A. W.,
Clouds. Jalobeanu, A., Kim, A. M., Runyon, S. C., Jung, H., Webb, F. H., Milillo, G., Rosinski, A
Olsen, R. C., Kruse, F. A. 124. Rupture History of 2014 Mw 6.1 South Napa Valley
111. Experimental Period-Height Relationships vs. Building Earthquake and Its Impact to the Practice of Ground
Code Provisions In EU and USA. Gallipoli, M. R., Strong Motion Prediction. Ji, C., Archuleta, R. J.,
Gueguen, P., Masi, A., Mucciarelli, M., Perrault, M. Twardzik, C.
112. Seismic Response of Bridge Foundations Considering 125. Ambient Noise-Based Monitoring of Seismic Velocity
Nonlinear Soil Structure Interaction Effect. Kirtel, O., Changes Associated with The 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa
Celebi, E., Aktas, M., Kuyuk, H. S. Earthquake. Taira, T., Brenguier, F., Kong, Q.
126. STUDENT: Understanding the Lithospheric Structure
Beneath the California Margin Using the Aug 24, 2014
The August 24, 2014 South Napa, CA Earthquake: South Napa Earthquake. Lai, V. H., Wei, S., Li, D., Lui,
Science Results, Impacts and Lessons Learned (see page S. K. Y., Graves, R. W., Helmberger, D.
631) 127. Multiple Holocene-Age Events on the Easternmost
Surface Rupture of the August 24, 2014 South Napa
Earthquake. Seitz, G., Ryan, K., Rosa, C.
113. Coseismic and Postseismic Deformation Due to the
128. Acquisition, Management, and Mapping of Data from
South Napa Earthquake Inferred from Geodetic Data.
the August 24, 2014 M6.0 South Napa Earthquake.
Murray, J. R., Svarc, J., Pollitz, F., Floyd, M., Funning,
Julius, A., Ortiz, M., Tremayne, H., Blair, J. L.
G., Johanson, I., Brooks, B.
129. PG&E Earthquake Response: A Case Study from
114. Unusual Downhole and Surface Free-Field Records Near the 2014 South Napa Earthquake. Madugo, C. L.,
Carquinez Bridges During 24 August 2014 M6.0 South
Steinberg, S. M., McClaren, M. K., Ferre, K. S.
Napa, CA, Earthquake. Celebi, M.
130. California Earthquake Clearinghouse Activation for
115. Rates and Patterns of Coseismic and Postseismic Surface August 24, 2014, M6.0 South Napa Earthquake.
Deformation from the South Napa Earthquake as
Rosinski, A., Ortiz, M., Tremayne, H.
Measured by Terrestrial Laser Scanning. DeLong, S. B.,
131. Ambient Tremor Activity Triggered by the 24 August
Lienkaemper, J. J.
2014, M6.0 South Napa Earthquake in the Parkfield-
116. Aftershock Statistics of the 2014 South Napa
Cholame Region of California. Nadeau, R. M.
Earthquake. Yikilmaz, M. B., Shcherbakov, R.,
132. Post-Earthquake Rupture Characterization and Analysis
Turcotte, D. L., Kellogg, L. H., Rundle, J. B.
of Pipeline Deformation near the Southern End of the
117. Forecasting the (Un)Productivity of the 2014 M6.0
24 August 2014 West Napa Fault Rupture. Lutz, A. T.,
South Napa Aftershock Sequence. Llenos, A. L., Hitchcock, C. H., Hart, J. D., Wade, A. M.
Michael, A. J.
133. Shallow Geophysical Investigations following the South
118. The 2014 Mw6.1 South Napa Earthquake: an Energetic
Napa Earthquake. Turner, J., Trench, D., Protti, B.,
Event with Shallow Asperity and Rapid Afterslip. Wei,
Brossy, C., Mayo, Z.
S. J., Barbot, S., Graves, R., Lienkaemper, J., Wang, T.,
134. Virtual California, Etas, and Openhazards Web
Hudnut, K., Fu, Y., Helmberger, D. V.
Services: Responding to Earthquakes in the Age of
119. UAVSAR Observations of Co And Postseismic Slip of
Big Data. Yoder, M. R., Schultz, K. W., Heien, E.
The M 6.0 South Napa Earthquake. Donnellan, A.,
M., Rundle, J. B., Turcotte, D. L., Glasscoe, M. T.,
Parker, J. W., Grant Ludwig, L., Rundle, J. B. Donnellan, A.
120. Aftershock Observation and S-wave Velocity Surveys
using Portable Accelerometers on the Surface Rupture
of the August 24, 2014 South Napa, CA Earthquake.
Hayashi, K., Roughley, C., Craig, M. Using Dense Seismic Array to Image the Subsurface and
121. An Analysis of Back Projection and Source Sensitivity Monitor Earthquake Activity (see page 636)
of the August 24th Napa Earthquake, Using 3D
Simulations. Aguirre, J., Ramirez-Guzman, L., Prado,
L. E. A. 135. STUDENT: Internal Structure of the San Jacinto Fault
122. Pre- and Post-Earthquake Paleoseismic Trenching on Zone at Jackass Flat from Earthquake Data Recorded by
the West Napa Fault. Rubin, R. S., Dawson, T. E., a Dense Linear Array. Qiu, H., Ben-Zion, Y., Ross, Z. E.,
Mareschal, M., Madugo, D., Madugo, C. Share, P. E., Vernon, F.
123. Use of Rapid Geodetic Observations for the M6.0 136. Imaging the Shallow Structure of the San Jacinto
August 24, 2014 South Napa Earthquake. Yun, S., Fault Zone with High Frequency Noise. Zigone, D.,
Owen, S. E., Hua, H., Milillo, P., Fielding, E. J., Hudnut, Ben-Zion, Y., Campillo, M., Hillers, G., Roux, P.,
K. W., Dawson, T., Barnhart, W., McCring, T., Murray, Vernon, F.

on 09 October 2018
137. STUDENT: Inversion of Inter-Station Attenuation from 142. Automatic Anthropogenic Transient Classification
Ambient Seismic Noise Recorded by a Linear Array. Liu, using Clustering Techniques. Riahi, N., Gerstoft, P.
X., Ben-Zion, Y., Zigone, D. 143. STUDENT: Teleseismic P-Waves Across the Long Beach
138. Fault Zone Trapped Noise and Fault Zone Array As Seen Through the Eyes of Wave-Gradiometry.
Reverberations from Cross-Correlations of Seismic Bockholt, B. M., Yang, Y., Langston, C. A.
Noise and Earthquake Waveforms. Hillers, G., 144. Seismic-Wave Gradiometry with a Dense Array in
Campillo, M., Ben-Zion, Y., Roux, P., Lecointre, A., Belmont County, Ohio. Barker, L., Langston, C. A.
Vernon, F. L. 145. Crust-Mantle Boundary Depth in the Sierra Nevada
139. STUDENT: Attenuation Properties of the Shallow San from Autocorrelations of Seismic Noise. Ramos, M.,
Jacinto Fault Zone From Data of Highly-Dense Seismic Tibuleac, I. M., Von Seggern, D.
Array. Ozakin, Y., Ben-Zion, Y., Share, P. E., Zigone, D., 146. CSN - Community Seismic Network. Clayton, R.,
Ross, Z., Vernon, F. Kohler, M., Massari, A., Guy, R., Heaton, T., Chandy,
140. STUDENT: Imaging Results from Dense Seismic Array M., Bunn, J., Cochran, E.
on the San Jacinto Fault Zone Generated By Besty Gun 147. Automatic Processing of Continuous Data in Active
Shots. Meng, H., Ben-Zion, Y. Seismic Region. Wu, F. T., Ross, Z., Okaya, D., Liang,
141. STUDENT: Natural Migration of Back-scattered Surface W. T., Kuo-Chen, H.
Waves Using Ambient-Noise Cross-correlations: Long 148. STUDENT: Earthquake Rupture and Hidden Events
Beach Dense Array and USArray Examples. AlTheyab, Detection for the 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique Earthquake. Li,
A., Workman, E., Lin, F. C., Schuster, G. T. B., Ghosh, A.

on 09 October 2018
Wednesday, 22 April – Oral Sessions
Seismic Imaging Earthquake The Where, When Advances in Seismic Sources
and Monitoring of Hazards and Risk: and Why of High-frequency and Seismicity
Near-surface, Drivers and Uncharacteristic Ground Motion Studies
Crustal and Global Consumers of Earthquakes and Attenuation Session Chairs:
Scales: Recent Earthquake Session Chairs: Session Chairs: Christine Ruhl and
Advances and Research Doug Yule, Richard Olga-Joan Vaclav Vavrycuk
Future Directions Session Chairs: Heermance, Ktenidou, Norman (see page 655)
Session Chairs: Delphine Fitzenz, Elizabeth Madden, A. Abrahamson,
Marco Pilz and Nori Edwin Apel, David Michele Cooke and Kim Bak Olsen and
Nakata (see page Wald, Paul Jack Loveless (see Ralph Archuleta (see
639) Somerville and Ting page 647) page 651)
Lin (see page 643)
8:30 Regionalization INVITED: INVITED: Future INVITED: High Two-Way
AM Based on Receiver Increasing Demand Earthquakes in Frequency Seismic Reverse-Time
Functions. Larmat, for Earthquake Areas of Low Strain Hazard Estimation Imaging for Seismic
C. S., Maceira, M., Research and Data Rate. Bilham, R. and Impacts on Sources. Nakata, N.,
Romanowicz, B., in the Insurance Seismic Performance Beroza, G. C.
Chai, C., Ammon, Industry. Evaluation for
C. J., He, R., Franco, G. Dams. Muto, M.,
Zhang, H. Duron, Z.
8:45 STUDENT: Receiver 20 Years of Using INVITED: From INVITED: Modeling STUDENT:
AM Wavefield Imaging Earthquake Stable to the Distance Persistent Seismicity
by 3D Reverse Time Scenarios in Risk Destructive: How Dependence of at Sheldon National
Migration of Reduction Practice. Creeping Fault Spectral Amplitude Wildlife Refuge,
Earthquake Body Rodgers, J. E., Segments Can Join and the Spectral Northwest Nevada.
Waves. Li, J., Shen, Tucker, B. E., Seismic Events. Decay Parameter Ruhl, C. J., Smith,
Y., Zhang, W. Tobin, L. T. Lapusta, N. (“kappa”) in K. D., Kent, G. M.,
Synthetic Rennie, T.
Seismograms by
Controlling the
Depth and
Frequency
Dependence of Q.
Anderson, J. G.,
Yagoda-Biran, G.,
McBean, K.
9:00 An Effective INVITED: Bi-Modal Behavior Kappa Issues and Large-Scale Analysis
AM Medium Theory for Challenges in of the North Correlations: of Global Seismicity
Three-Dimensional Earthquake Risk Anatolian fault. Insights from NGA Data for
Elastic Modeling from a Kozaci, O. Rock Sites. High-Precision
Heterogeneities. Reinsurer’s Ktenidou, O. J., Event Location.
Jordan, T. H., Perspective. Abrahamson, A. N. Waldhauser, F.,
Song, X. Kaeser, M. A. Schaff, D. P.

on 09 October 2018
Wednesday, 22 April (continued)
Seismic Imaging & EQ Hazards and The Where, When Adv in High-Freq Seismic Sources &
Monitoring . . . Risk and Why . . . Ground . . . Studies
9:15 Full-3D Putting Pager’s Time-Dependent On the Use and STUDENT: The
AM Tomography of Rapid Earthquake Coupling and Misuse of "Kappa" in Magnitude-
Crustal Structure in Loss Estimation Future Seismic the Stochastic Frequency
Central California. Capabilities to Use: Potential on the Simulation of Distribution of
Lee, E. J., Jordan, T. the Usaid/Ofda Subduction Ground Motion: Bucaramanga Nest
H., Chen, P., Scenario Efforts and Interfaces of Japan. Example Seismicity and its
Maechling, P. J., Post Earthquake Loveless, J. P., Applications Using Relationship to the
Boué, P., Denolle, Response-Related Meade, B. J. the Mechanism of
M., Beroza, G. C., Applications. EUROSEISTEST Intermediate-Depth
Eymold, W. K. Jaiswal, K. S., Database Records. Earthquakes.
Marano, K. D., Roumelioti, Z., Barrett, S. A.,
Wald, D. J., Hearne, Ktenidou, O. J., Beroza, G. C.
M., Lenon, C. P., Abrahamson, N. A.,
Mayberry, G. Pitilakis, K.,
Cotton, F.
9:30 STUDENT: Seismic INVITED: Inter-, Co-, and Incremental Site Iterative Joint
AM Noise Analysis to Synchronous Post-Seismic Fault Attenuation from Inversion for Stress
Constrain Shallow Rupture of the Slip Associated Garner Valley Array and Fault
Velocity Structure Wasatch and West With Recent Large Recordings. Kottke, Orientations from
in the Southern San Valley Fault Zones Megathrust A. R., Hashemi, A. Focal Mechanisms.
Andreas Fault in Northern Salt Earthquakes. Vavrycuk, V.
Region. Tsang, S., Lake Valley, Utah. Simons, M.,
Tanimoto, T. DuRoss, C. B., Duputel, Z., Riel, B.,
Hylland, M. D. Jiang, J., Owen, S.,
Moore, A., Jolivet,
R., Rivera, L.,
Ortega, F.,
Kanamori, H.,
Fielding, E.,
Samsanov, S.,
Norabuena, E.
9:45–
10:45 Break
AM

on 09 October 2018
Seismic Imaging & EQ Hazards and The Where, When Adv in High-Freq Applications of
Monitoring. . . Risk and Why. . . Ground. . . Tsunami Science:
Working with
States and
Communities to
Improve Tsunami
Resilience
Session Chairs: Rick
Wilson and Lori
Dengler (see page
656)
10:45 Monitoring and Spatio-Temporal INVITED: Evidence INVITED: Penultimate
AM Imaging the Patterns of for Non-Persistent Amplitude Predecessors of the
Response of Crustal Seismicity and Risk Rupture Modeling in the 2004 Indian Ocean
Materials to Various Models. Fitzenz, D. Terminations at Explosion Tsunami in Aceh,
Natural and D., Chang, C. Y. Central Wasatch Monitoring World. Sumatra:
Anthropogenic Fault Zone Segment Phillips, W. S., Stratigraphic,
Loading Boundaries, Utah. Fisk, M. D., Stead, Archeological and
Mechanisms of Bennett, S. E. K., R. J., Begnaud, M. Historical Evidence.
Different Gold, R. D., L., Yang, X., Sieh, K., Daly, P.,
Amplitude and DuRoss, C. B. Ballard, S. McKinnon, E. E.,
Periodicity. Pilarczyk, J., Chiang,
Hillers, G. H. W., Horton, B.,
Rubin, C., Shen, C.
C., Ismail, N.,
Vane, C.
11:00 Developing Design Ground Turning The Importance of INVITED:
AM Path-Dependent Motions for the Uncharacteristic Incorporating a Advisories for
Uncertainty Reconstruction of Earthquakes into Variable Q Model in Earthquakes and
Estimates for Use Christchurch. Expected Events: Ground Motion Tsunamis: An
With the Regional Somerville, P. Identifying Fault Prediction Emergency
Seismic Travel Time Geometry and Equations. Management
(Rstt) Model. Damage Pasyanos, M. E., Perspective.
Begnaud, M. L., Development Pitarka, A., Goltz, J. D.
Anderson, D. N., within Fault Steps as Baltay, A. S.,
Phillips, W. S., Key Characteristics Abrahamson, N. A.
Myers, S. C., of Segmented
Ballard, S. Systems. Madden,
E. H., Cooke, M. L.,
Savage, H.
11:15 Estimation of Risk Modeling A Case for STUDENT: Lg INVITED:
AM Time-Lapse Velocity Needs and Barriers Multi-Fault Rupture Attenuation of the Assessment of
Changes in the to Action: A Global in the Southern Contiguous United Nearshore Hazard
Earth by Full Study of Earthquake California States. Gallegos, A. due to
Waveform Inversion Safety Practitioners. Earthquake of C., Ranasinghe, N. Tsunami-Induced
of Repeating Seismic Moresco, J. C., December 8th, R., Ni, J. F., Sandvol, Currents. Lynett,
Events. Kamei, R., Peek, L., 1812. Lozos, J. C. E., Hearn, T. P., Ayca, A.,
Lumley, D. Tucker, B. E. Borrero, J., Wilson,
R., Eskijian, M.,
Miller, K.

on 09 October 2018
Seismic Imaging & EQ Hazards and The Where, When Adv in High-Freq Appl of Tsuami
Monitoring. . . Risk and Why. . . Ground. . . Science
11:30 On the Use of the Visualizing Seismic Uncharacteristic STUDENT: CODA INVITED:
AM Autocorrelation Hazards and Risk. Earthquakes and Quality Factor (Qc) Probabilistic
Function: the Nikbakht, H., Multi-Strand Sensitivity Kernels Tsunami Hazard
Constraint of Using Lin, T. Ruptures of the in Scattering and Mapping in
Frequency Band Southcentral San Absorbing Media. California. Thio, H.
Limited Signals. Andreas Fault Mayor, J., Margerin, K., Li, W., Wilson,
Pilz, M. P., System. Grant L., Calvet, M. R., Miller, K.
Parolai, S. P. Ludwig, L.
11:45 Non-Perturbational Automated Potential for Large STUDENT: INVITED: The New
AM Surface Wave Operational Earthquakes on the Estimation of Tsunami Design
Inversion: A Earthquake Risk Patton Escarpment, Quality Factor in Provisions of the
Dix-type Relation Assessment: Offshore Southern the Caribbean ASCE 7-2016
for Surface Waves. Challenges and California. Region Using Standard.
Tsai, V. C., Promise. Rundle, J. Legg, M. R. L g -wave Chock, G. Y. K.
Haney, M. M. B., Holiiday, J. R., Attenuation.
Graves, W. R., Haji-Soltani, A.,
Rundle, P. B., Pezeshk, S.,
Hannon, A., Hosseini, M.,
Rundle, D. E., Chapman, M.
Graves, C. R.
Noon–
1:30 Lunch
PM

on 09 October 2018
Seismic Imaging & Engineering and How Reliable Are Adv in High-Freq Slow Earthquakes:
Monitoring. . . Public Safety Reconstructions Ground. . . Diversity in Fault
Concerns raised by and Models of Motion and Their
Seismic Hazard Surface-Rupturing Implications in
Assessment Earthquakes? Earthquake
Methods Session Chairs: Dynamics
Session Chairs: Scott Bennett, Session Chairs:
Lalliana Mualchin, Katherine Scharer Abhijit Ghosh,
Antonella Peresan, and Julian Lozos Christodoulos
Vladimir (see page 649) Kyriakopoulos and
Kossobokov and Hongfeng Yang (see
Jens-Uwe Klügel page 657)
(see page 645)
1:30 High-Resolution How Seismic Can Recurrence k0: The Role of INVITED: The
PM Surficial Soil Hazard Assessment Models Explain the Intrinsic and Continuum of Slip
Velocity Models in Method and the Century-Long Scattering along the
the Canterbury, Rationale for Design Hiatus in California Attenuation. Subduction
New Zealand Basin. Criteria Determines Paleo-Seismic Parolai, S., Bindi, Megathrust:
Bradley, B. A., a Safe Outcome or Events? Jackson, D. D., Pilz, M. Observations and
McGann, C. R., Disaster. Mualchin, D., Understanding
Cox, B. R., L., Barosh, P. J. Richards-Dinger, K., Gained from the
Wotherspoon, L. Milner, K. Nicoya Seismic
M., Wood, C. M., Cycle Observatory.
Lee, R. L., Newman, A. V.,
Teague, D. P. Kyriakopoulos, C.,
Feng, L., Hobbs, T.
E., Dixon, T. H.,
Malservisi, R.,
Protti, J. M.
1:45 Potential of INVITED: Has INVITED/STUDENT: STUDENT: Spatial and
PM Ambient Seismic Performance Based How do Models of Broadband (0–8 Temporal
Noise Techniques to Engineering Broken Paleoseismic Hz) Ground Variations of Large
Monitor the St. the Power Law? Rupture Motion Variability Slow Slip Events at
Gallen Geothermal Heaton, T. H. Detectability Affect From Ensemble the Southcentral
Site (Switzerland). Estimates of Simulations of the Alaska Subduction
Obermann, A., Earthquake 1994 Mw 6.7 Zone. Fu, Y., Liu,
Kraft, T., Larose, E., Probabilities? Northridge Z., Freymueller, J. T.
Wiemer, S. Gilchrist, J. J., Earthquake
Dieterich, J. H., Including Rough
Richards- Fault Descriptions
Dinger, K. B. and Q(f). Withers,
K. B., Olsen, K. B.,
Shi, Z., Day, S. M.

on 09 October 2018
Seismic Imaging & Engineering & Pub How Reliable are Adv in High-Freq Slow Earthquakes
Monitoring. . . Safety . . . Reconst . . . Ground. . .
2:00 Investigating Effective Paleoseismic Speed STUDENT: STUDENT:
PM Geothermal Systems Scenario-Based Dating: Pushing the Inclusion of Analytical and
Using Virtual Seismic Risk Limits on Dating Nonstationary Coda Numerical Studies
Seismometers. Mitigation at Earthquakes and in Time and of Slow and Fast
Matzel, E., National and Local Re-thinking Inputs Frequency for Earthquakes on
Morency, C., Scale. Peresan, A., Used in OxCal Age Computing Faults with Mixed
Templeton, D., Magrin, A., Vaccari, Models. Streig, A. Synthetic Ground Velocity-Weakening
Pyle, M. F., Romanelli, F., R., Weldon, R. J., Motions from / Velocity-
Panza, G. F. Dawson, T. E., Earthquake Strengthening
Gavin, D., Scenarios. Rheology. Luo, Y.,
Guilderson, T. Crempien, J. G. F., Ampuero, J. P.
Archuleta, R. J.
2:15 Downhole Seismic INVITED: Seismic Dynamic Rupture Ground Motion PBO Strainmeter
PM Monitoring in the Hazard Assessment: Models of Historic Simulation for the Observations of
Istanbul/Eastern Sea A Difficult but and Recent August 23, 2011, Slow Slip Events in
of Marmara Region: Necessary Task for Paleoseismic Mineral, Virginia the Cascadia
The ICDP-GONAF Seismologists. Ruptures on the Earthquake Using Subduction Zone:
Project. Bohnhoff, Wang, Z. Northern and Physics-Based and Assessing Their
M., Dresen, G., Central San Jacinto Stochastic Implications for
Raub, C., Acarel, D., Fault. Lozos, J. C., Broadband Time-varying
Kilic, T., Kartal, R. Rockwell, T. K., Methods. Rezaeian, Earthquake
F., Kadirioglu, F. T., Onderdonk, N. W. S., Hartzell, S., Probability.
Nurlu, M., Bulut, F., Sun, X. Roeloffs, E. A.,
Malin, P.E. Beeler, N. M.
2:30 In-situ Assessment On the INVITED: Open Discussion on Crustal Shear Wave
PM of the G-γ curve for Development of the Paleoseismic High-frequency Anisotropy
Characterizing the Seismic Design Basis Evidence for the Ground Motion and Extracted from
Nonlinear Response of Critical System-Level Attenuation: Tremor along the
of soil: Application Infrastructures and Coordination of Moving Forward. Entire Cascadia
to the Garner Valley Lifelines. Large Earthquakes, Abrahamson, N. Margin in US.
Downhole Array Kluegel, J. U. Strain A., Ktenidou, O. J., Ghosh, A.,
(GVDA) and the “Super-Cycles”, and Olsen, K. B., Huesca, E.
Wildlife Temporally Variable Archuleta, R. J.
Liquefaction Array Fault Strength:
(WLA). Chandra, J., Behavior of the
Guéguen, P., Steidl, Garlock-Saf-Ecsz
J. H., Bonilla, L. F. System in Southern
California. Dolan, J.
F., McAuliffe, L. J.,
Rhodes, E. J.,
McGill, S. F.,
Sammis, C. G.
2:45–
3:45 Break
PM

on 09 October 2018
Seismic Imaging & 2014 National How Reliable are Engineering Slow Earthquakes
Monitoring. . . Seismic Hazard Reconst. . . Seismology and
Mapping Updates: Ground Motion
Hazard Changes Prediction
and Influence on Session Chairs:
Seismic Risk Praveen Malhotra
Session Chairs: and Yousef
Kishor Jaiswal, Bozorgnia (see page
Doug Bausch, 654)
Nilesh Shome and
Mark Petersen (see
page 646)
3:45 Near-vertical Multiple Earthquake Hazard INVITED: NGA-West2 INVITED:
PM ScS Phases and When the Rate is Distributed Ground Motion Very-low-frequency
Vertically Averaged Non-Stationary: Deformation and Models for Vertical Earthquakes in
Mantle Properties. The Challenge of Fault Slip in the and Vertical-to- Japan: Its
Kanamori, H., the U. S. Eastern California Horizontal Implications on the
Rivera, L. Midcontinent. Shear Zone. Evans, Response Spectra. Earthquake Physics
Ellsworth, W. L., E. L., Pollitz, F. F. Bozorgnia, Y., and Seismic Hazard.
Cochran, E. S., Campbell, K. W. Ito, Y.
Llenos, A. L.,
McGarr, A.,
Michael, A. J.,
Mueller, C. S.,
Petersen, M.,
Rubinstein, J. L.
4:00 SEIS/INSIGHT: The Overview of the Cryptic Strike-Slip Vertical GMPEs STUDENT:
PM 2016 Seismic Third Uniform Deformation in a Based on the Volcanic Deep
Discovery of Mars. California Region of Presumed NGA-W2 Database. Long-Period
Lognonne, P., Earthquake Rupture Normal Faulting: Gulerce, Z., Kamai, Earthquakes in
Banderdt, W. B., Forecast (UCERF3) The Washoe Shear R., Abrahamson, N. Japan. Aso, N.,
Giardini, D., Pike, W. – From Multi-Fault Zone, Reno Basin, A., Silva, W. J. Ohta, K., Ide, S.
T., Christensen, U., Ruptures to an Nevada. Briggs, R.
Mimoun, D., Clinton, Operational W., dePolo, C. M.,
J., Dehant, V., Earthquake Gold, R. D.,
Golombek, M., Garcia, Forecast. Reitman, N.
R., Johnson, C., Field, E. H.
Kobayashi, N.,
Knapmeyer-Endrun,
B., Mocquet, A.,
Panning, M., Smrekar,
S., Tromp, J.,
Wieczorek, M., Weber,
R.C., Beucler, E.,
Blanchette-Guertin, J.,
Daubar, I., Drilleau,
M., Kawamura,
S.Kedar, T., Murdoch,
N., Hurst, K., Laudet,
P. and the
InSight/SEIS Team.

on 09 October 2018
Seismic Imaging & 2014 Natl Seismic How Reliable are Engineering Slow Earthquakes
Monitoring. . . Hazard . . . Reconst. . . Seismology . . .
4:15 STUDENT: Using a INVITED: STUDENT: Lidar Summary of Tectonic Tremor
PM Joint Tomography Implications of Analysis of the Ground-motion Modulation by
Inversion to Improve Changes to Seismic Structurally Mature Prediction Intraslab Fluid
Models of Sierra Hazard Wairau and Immature Equations for Diffusion During
Negra Volcano, Characterization on Awatere Faults, New Subduction Zones Silent Earthquakes.
Galapagos. Tepp, G., Building Codes and Zealand: Evidence for based on Cruz-Atienza, V.
Ebinger, C., Seats, K., Engineering Progressive Strong-motion M., Villafuerte, C.,
Roecker, S. Applications. Geomorphic Records from Japan. Caballero, E.,
Kircher, C. A. Manifestation of Zhao, J. X. Kostoglodov, V.,
Distributed Husker, A.
Deformation and
Structural
Localization During
Fault Slip. Zinke, R.,
Dolan, J. F., Grenader,
J. R., Van Dissen, R.,
Rhodes, E. J.,
McGuire, C. P.,
Langridge, R. M.,
Nicol, A.,
Hatem, A. E.
4:30 Tracking Magmatism INVITED: New STUDENT: Refining Normalized Improved
PM At Active Volcanoes Audiences, New the Magnitude of Response Spectrum Understanding of
of the Aleutian Arc Products for the Shallow Slip Deficit. of Ground Motion. Moderate-size
Via Ambient Noise. USGS National Xu, X., Tong, X., Malhotra, P. K. Earthquake
Bennington, N. L., Seismic Hazard Sandwell, D. T., Sequences on the
Haney, M., De Maps. Perry, S. C., Milliner, C. W. D., San Jacinto Fault
Angelis, S., Thurber, Petersen, M. D. Dolan, J. F., Leprince, and Their
C. H., Freymueller, J., S., Ayoub, F. Relationship with
Larose, E. Deep Creep. Meng,
X., Peng, Z.
4:45 Potential Advantages Earthquake Risk in STUDENT: Is the Fault Rupture Relationship of a
PM of Continuous Data Conterminous Co-seismic Slip Hazard Very Long-Term
Collection in Active United States Using Distribution Fractal? Investigations in Slow Event to the
Source Experiments: the Usgs Milliner, C. W. D., California – 2011 Tohoku
Characterizing the Probabilistic Seismic Sammis, C., Allam, A., Arguments in Favor Earthquake.
Seismic Structure of Hazard Models. Dolan, J. F., of Changing the Koketsu, K.,
Basins and Upper Jaiswal, K. S., Hollingsworth, J. Alquist-Priolo Act. Kobayashi, H.
Crust of the Bighorn Petersen, M. D., Gonzalez, T.
Mountains Region in Bausch, D., Chen,
Northern Wyoming. R., Rukstales, K.,
Worthington, L. L., Leith, W.
Sheehan, A. F.,
Schmandt, B., Miller,
K. C., Harder, S. H.
5:15 Joyner Lecture - Conference Center
PM Geoscientists’ Capacity to Supply Engineers’ Demands for Seismic Hazard Inputs.
Paul G. Somerville

on 09 October 2018
Wednesday, 22 April – Poster Sessions 15. STUDENT: Lateral Variations of CODA Wave
Attenuation in the Alps. Mayor, J., Calvet, M., Margerin,
2014 National Seismic Hazard Mapping Updates: Hazard L., Traversa, P.
Changes and Influence on Seismic Risk (see page 660) 16. Hybrid-Empirical Ground Motion Models for Georgia.
Askan, A., Tsereteli, N.
17. STUDENT: Application of Broadband Simulation
Technique in Development of New Hybrid Empirical
1. Update of California Shaking Hazard Map
Ground Motion Model in Central and Eastern North
Incorporating Site Amplification. Chen, R., Wills, C.
America. Shahjouei, A., Pezeshk, S.
J., Branum, D. M., Petersen, M. D.
18. STUDENT: Broadband Strong Ground Motion
2. Modeling Earthquake Hazard and Risk for the Cascadia
Simulation for a Potential Mw7.0 Earthquake on
Subduction Zone. Nyst, M., Williams, C., Fitzenz, D. D.
The Enriquillo Fault in Haiti. Douilly, R., Calais, E.,
3. STUDENT: Site Response in the Central and Eastern
Freed, A. M.
United States. Yassminh, R., Sandvol, E. A.
19. The SCEC Broadband Platform: An Open-Source
4. STUDENT: Empirical Ground Motion Prediction
Platform for Strong Ground Motion Simulation and
Equations for Eastern North America with the Addition
Validation. Silva, F., Maechling, P., Callaghan, S.,
of Intensity Observations. Al Noman, M. N., Cramer,
Jordan, T.
C. H.
20. STUDENT: Broadband Synthetic Seismograms for
Normal-Faulting Earthquakes Using the Composite
Advances in High-frequency Ground Motion and Source Model. McBean, K. M., Anderson, J. G.
Attenuation (see page 660) 21. Ground-Motion Simulations from 3D Dynamic
Rupture Simulations of Dipping Rough-Fault Events.
Shi, Z., Day, S. M.
5. The Site Attenuation Parameter and its Variability for
22. STUDENT: Analysis of 3D Deterministic Broadband (0-
Rock Sites in New Zealand. Van Houtte, C., Holden, C.,
25 Hz) Ground Motions Generated by Models of Small-
Larkin, T., Ktenidou, O. J.
scale Crustal Heterogeneities and Q(f). Savran, W. H.,
6. STUDENT: Empirical Estimation of Kappa in the Low-
Olsen, K. B.
to-Moderate Seismicity Context of Southeastern France.
Perron, V., Hollender, F., Bard, P. Y., Gélis, C.,
Ktenidou, O. J., Hernandez, B.
7. Epistemic Uncertainty and Limitations of the Kappa0 Applications of Tsunami Science: Working with States
model for Near-surface Attenuation at Hard Rock Sites. and Communities to Improve Tsunami Resilience (see
Edwards, B., Ktenidou, O., Cotton, F., Abrahamson, N., page 664)
Van Houtte, C., Fäh, D.
8. Kappa in the Region of the Gulf of California, México.
Castro, R. R., Avila-Barrientos, L. 23. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to
9. Nonlinear Interaction of Strong S-Waves, Surface Implementation. Ross, S. L., Jones, L. M., Miller, K.,
Waves, P-Waves, and Near-Field Velocity Pulses in the Wilson, R. I., Bahng, B., Barberopoulou, A., Borrero,
Shallow Subface Leading to Nonlinear Attenuation. J. C., Brosnan, D. M., Bwarie, J. T., Cambpell, N. M.,
Sleep, N. H., Nakata, N. Geist, E. L., Johnson, L. A., Kirby, S. H., Knight, W. R.,
10. Towards the Definition of Reference Motions (1000< Long, K., Lynett, P., Mortensen, C. E., Nicolsky, D. J.,
VS <3000 m/s): Estimating Transfer Functions to Oglesby, D. D., Perry, S. C., Plumlee, G. S., Porter, K.
Correct KiK-net ’Rock’ Sites (500< VS 30 <1500 A., Real, C. R., Ritchie, L. A., Ryan, K., Suleimani, E.,
m/s) for Site Effects. Laurendeau, A., Foundotos, L., Thio, H. K., Titov, V. V., Wein, A., Whitmore, P. M.,
Hollender, F., Ktenidou, O. J., Hernandez, B. Wood, N. J.
11. STUDENT: Near-Surface QS and t* Estimation from 24. Tsunami Evacuation Park for Padang, West Sumatra.
Noise Cross Correlations. Haendel, A., Ohrnberger, M., Tucker, B. E., Cedillos, V., Kornberg, K. A., Deierlein,
Krueger, F. G. G., Di Mauro, M.
12. Using PGA and PGV Data to Easily Estimate Station 25. Time-dependent Geo-targeted Alerts and Warning
Specific Kappa. Baltay, A. S., Hanks, T. C. Enabled by Dense Observations of the 2011 Tohoku
13. Attenuation of 3-Component Ground Motion in Tsunami. Kohler, M. D., Ampuero, J. P., Sutton, J. N.,
Western Anatolia Horst-Graben System, Turkey. Bowden, D. C.
Kurtulmus, T. O., Akyol, N. 26. Examining Hikurangi Trench M9 Event Characterization
14. Accuracy of Estimated Quality Factors in the New for Tsunami Modeling. Williams, C. R., Nyst, M. C.,
Madrid Seismic Zone. Hosseini, M., Pezeshk, S., Haji- Farahani, R., Astill, S., Bryngelson, J., Lee, R., Wilson, P.,
Soltani, A. Molas, G.

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27. Specification of Tectonic Tsunami Sources along
the Western Alaska Peninsula for Inundation Engineering and Public Safety Concerns raised by
Mapping and Hazard Assessment. Suleimani, E., Seismic Hazard Assessment Methods (see page 668)
Nicolsky, D. J.
28. STUDENT: Assessment of Interseismic Coupling Models
to Estimate Tsunami Inundation and Runup. González-
38. How Long Time Will We Go with so Many
Carrasco, J., Aránguiz, R., Domínguez, J. C., González,
Uncertainties in Evaluation of Hazard and Seismic Risk?
G., Cienfuegos, R., Catalán, P., Urra, L.
Marmureanu, G., Cioflan, C. O., Marmureanu, A.,
29. STUDENT: Dynamic Models of Earthquakes and
Manea, E. F.
Tsunamis from Rupture on the Pitas Point and
39. Seismic Hazard Maps and Real Seismicity for the Italian
Lower Red Mountain Faults Offshore Ventura,
Territory. Peresan, A., Nekrasova, A., Kossobokov, V. I.,
California. Ryan, K. J., Geist, E. L., Barall, M., Oglesby,
Panza, G. F.
D. D.
40. Errors in Seismic Hazard Assessment are Creating Huge
30. Post- and Co-Tsunami Science Teams: Cascadia
Human Losses. Bela, J.
Planning, Northern California. Patton, J. R., Wilson,
41. Post-Tohoku Views of Seismic Hazard in Japan:
R., Rosinski, A., Falls, J., Dengler, L. A., Hemphill-
Implications for Loss Estimation and Risk Management.
Haley, E., Moley, K., Admire, A., Nicolini, T., Miller,
Thenhaus, P. C., Bolton, M. K., Campbell, K. W.,
K., McPherson, R. C., Leroy, T. H.
Gupta, N.
31. California’s Tsunami Preparedness Campaign. Miller,
42. Source Scaling Relations of Subduction Earthquakes
K., Siegel, J., Pridmore, C., Wilson, R.
for Strong Ground Motion and Tsunami Prediction.
32. New Tsunami Preparedness and Response Tools
Skarlatoudis, A., Somerville, P., Thio, H. K.
for California Communities. Wilson, R. I.,
43. Response Spectra Ground-Motion Prediction Equation
Miller, K. M.
Development Based on Empirical Fourier Amplitude
Spectra Model and Calibrated Duration Model: The
PEER NGA-East Example. Hollenback, J. C., Kuehn,
Earthquake Hazards and Risk: Drivers and Consumers of N., Goulet, C., Abrahamson, N. A.
Earthquake Research (see page 666) 44. The South American Strong-Motion Database in the
Framework of the GEM-SARA Project. Castellanos,
M., Castillo, L., Drouet, S., Marañon, G., Lozano, C.,
33. Reevaluation of Earthquake Losses in Istanbul and Minaya, E., Montalva, G., Morales, C., Pirchiner, M.,
of Implications for the Performance of the Turkish Carlos, J., Virachuca, C., Weatherill, G.
Catastrophe Insurance Pool. Cakti, E., Hancilar, U., 45. The 2015 Update of the New Zealand Strong Motion
Sesetyan, K. Database. Van Houtte, C., Kaiser, A., McVerry, G.,
34. Conditional Ground Motion Simulations for Near- Perrin, N., Bourguignon, S., Bannister, S., Holden, C.,
Real Time and Scenario Loss Assessments Using Wotherspoon, L., Gerstenberger, M., Behr, Y.
Shakemap. Horspool, N. A., Worden, C. B., 46. Graizer-14 Ground Motion Predication Equations for
Wald, D. J. The Central Eastern United States. Graizer, V.
35. Decision Support and Data Discovery Tools for Disaster 47. Update of the Graizer-Kalkan Ground-Motion
Response – E-DECIDER & GeoGateway. Glasscoe, M. Prediction Equation for Shallow Crustal Continental
T., Donnellan, A., Parker, J. W., Granat, R. A., Won, P., Earthquakes. Kalkan, E., Graizer, V.
Lyzenga, G. A., Pierce, M. E., Wang, J., Grant Ludwig, L., 48. Unexpected Low Damage in the 2013-4-20 Lushan
Eguchi, R. T., Huyck, C. K., Hu, Z., Chen, Z., Yoder, M. Earthquake, a Possible Reginal Effect in Magnitude
R., Rundle, J. B., Rosinski, A. Scaling. Lan, X., Zhao, J. X., Lu, M., Sun, X.
36. STUDENT: Using the Macro-Element Method to 49. An Updated Global Model for Prediction of Seismically
Assess the Seismic Vulnerability of Masonry Aggregates: Induced Landslides. Kim, B., Santha, R., Shome, N.
Large Scale Methodology. Seddiki, E., Serrhini, K., 50. STUDENT: An Empirical Global Model for Predicting
Maizia, M. Seismically Induced Landslides in Near Real-Time.
37. The L’Aquila Trial: Acquittal After Conviction. Nowicki, M. A., Hamburger, M. W., Wald, D. J.,
Braun, T., Amato, A., Cultrera, G., Demartin, M., Robeson, S. M., Hearne, M.
De Martini, P. M., Margheriti, L., Pondrelli, S., 51. STUDENT: A Complete Site-Specific Hazard Analysis
Todesco, M., Bonaccorso, A.,Cocco, M., Galadini, for a Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) Tank Station
F., Pantosti, D., Meltti, C., Nostro, C., Pacor, F., Considering Associated Uncertainties. Haji-Soltani, A.,
Quareni, F. Pezeshk, S., Hosseini, M.

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52. Can NGA-West2 GMPES Be Used In Europe?: Japan, Event Along the Northern Itoigawa-Shizuoka
Comparison of CB14 with ASB14 and Bea14. Tectonic Line is Not Characteristic. Okada, S.,
Campbell, K. W., Bozorgnia, Y. Ishimura, D., Niwa, Y., Toda, S.
64. STUDENT: The May 2014, Bay of Bengal Earthquake:
an Example for Activation of Ocean Bottom Hot Spot
Trails. Mallick, R., Rajendran, K.
How Reliable Are Reconstructions and Models of
65. STUDENT: Along-Strike Slip Profiles from a Global
Surface-Rupturing Earthquakes? (see page 671)
Dataset of Finite-Source Models. Donovan, J., Jordan, T.
H.
66. STUDENT: Variability of Earthquake Slip and Arresting
53. History of Six Surface-Faulting Holocene Earthquakes Depth in Fault Models With Depth-Dependent
At the Alpine Trench Site, Northern Provo Segment, Properties. Jiang, J., Lapusta, N.
Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah. Bennett, S. E. K., DuRoss, 67. Observed Maximum Earthquake Magnitude in
C. B., Gold, R. D., Briggs, R. W., Personius, S. F., Continental Strike-Slip Faults in relation to Cumulative
Reitman, N. G., Hiscock, A. I., Devore, J. D., Gray, H. Offset and Seismogenic Thickness. Martínez-Garzón,
J., Mahan, S. P., Bohnhoff, M., Ben-Zion, Y.
54. Multiple Holocene Surface-Faulting Earthquakes at the
Corner Canyon Trench Site on the Salt Lake City
Segment of the Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah. DuRoss, C.
B., Bennett, S. E. K., Personius, S. F., Gold, R. D., Briggs, Seismic Imaging and Monitoring of Near-surface,
R. W., Hiscock, A. I., Reitman, N. G., DeVore, J. D., Crustal and Global Scales: Recent Advances and Future
Mahan, S. A. Directions (see page 674)
55. Paleoseismology of the Northern Segments of the Great
Salt Lake Fault, Utah. Dinter, D. A., Pechmann, J. C.
56. Four Earthquakes in Four Thousand Years: Paleoseismic 68. STUDENT: Seismic Velocity and Attenuation
Results from the Kings Canyon Fault Zone, Carson City, Tomography of the Tonga Subduction Zone and Lau
Nevada, USA. Gold, R. D., dePolo, C. M., Briggs, R. W., Back-arc Basin. Wei, S. S., Wiens, D. A., Zha, Y., Webb,
Crone, A., Mahan, S., Amidon, W. S. C.
57. STUDENT: Establishing Early-Mid Holocene Slip Rate 69. STUDENT: Eikonal Noise-Based Tomography of the
Data for the Mojave Section of the San Andreas Fault. Southern California Plate Boundary Region. Qiu, H.,
Barr, M. A., Cowgill, E. S., Scharer, K. M. Zigone, D., Lin, F. C., Ben-Zion, Y.
58. Ages of Paleoearthquakes Along Four Faults (California 70. STUDENT: Improvement of the Shear Wave Velocity
Wash, Wildcat Wash, Black Hills and Pahrump) in Structure Beneath Bucharest (Romania) Using Non-
Southern Nevada. Taylor, W. J. Invasive Techniques. Manea, E. F., Michel, C., Fäh, D.,
59. Seismicity Statistics and Stress in Regions with High Poggi, V., Edwards, B., Cioflan, C. O., Radulian, M.,
Tectonic Complexity: A Comparative Study of the Balan, S. F.
Greater San Gorgonio and Ventura Regions in Southern 71. STUDENT: Rayleigh Wave Attenuation from Ambient
California. Goebel, T. H. W., Haukssom, E., Plesch, A., Noise Measurements in the Iberian Peninsula. Noriega,
Shaw, J. R., Moschetti, M. P., Ugalde, A., Villasenor, A.,
60. STUDENT: Full Source Tensors of San Jacinto Fault Contribution of the Team Consolider-Ingenio 2010
Zone Earthquakes Based on the gCAP Inversion Method TOPO-IBERIA (CSD2006-00041) project.
and 3D Velocity Model. Ross, Z. E., Ben-Zion, Y., Zhu, 72. STUDENT: Ambient Noise Tomography Across the
L., Graves, R. W. Alaskan Cordillera. Ward, K. M.
61. Complex Fault Structure in the Salton Trough and 73. STUDENT: Three-Dimensional P and S Wave-Velocity
Deformation During the 2010 M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Model of The Northern Mississippi Embayment
Earthquake from Geodetic and Seismic Data. Huang, Sediments. Mostafanejad, A., Langston, C. A.
M., Fielding, E. J., Sun, J., Dickinson, H. L., Freed, A., 74. Seismic Structure in Central California: Towards
Burgmann, R., Gonzalez-Ortega, A., Gonzalez-Escobar, Identifying the Tectonic Origin of the Isabella Anomaly.
M., Samsonov, S., Gonzalez-Garcia, M., Fletcher, J., Dougherty, S. L., Hoots, C. R., Hansen, S., Clayton, R.
Hinojosa-Corona, A. W., Schmandt, B.
62. Transtensional Tectonics of the Minto Flats Fault Zone 75. STUDENT: Characterization of the San Jacinto Fault
and Nenana Basin, Central Alaska. Tape, C., Silwal, V., Zone Northwest of the Trifurcation Area from
Ji, C., Hutchinson, L., West, M., Ruppert, N. Earthquake Data Recorded by a Dense Linear Array.
63. The First Surface-Rupturing Earthquake in 20 Years on Share, P., Ben-Zion, Y., Ross, Z. E., Qiu, H., Vernon,
a HERP Major Active Fault: Mw=6.2 2014 Nagano, F. L.

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76. STUDENT: Elucidating Fault Zone Structures in the Begnaud, M. L., Ballard, S., Young, C. J., Hipp, J. R.,
South-Central Transverse Ranges Area using Double Encarnacao, A. V., Maceira, M., Phillips, W. S., Chael, E.
Difference Tomography. Share, P., Ben-Zion, Y., P., Rowe, C. A.
Thurber, C. H. 95. A Synthetic Study into the Causes and Solutions for
77. Velocity Structure of the Iran Region Using Seismic the Non-Uniqueness in the Surface Wave Inversion.
and Gravity Observations. Maceira, M., Syracuse, E. M., Hosseini, M., Pezeshk, S.
Bergman, E., Phillips, W. S., Begnaud, M. L., Zhang, H. 96. Standardized Access to Seismic Velocity Models Using
78. Structures and Seismic Activity of the Xishancun the Unified Community Velocity Model (UCVM)
Landslide, Sichuan. Chu, R., Ni, S., Wei, Z., Bao, F., Ye, Software. Gill, D., Small, P., Taborda, R., Lee, E., Olsen,
L., Tang, C. K. B., Maechling, P., Jordan, T. H.
79. STUDENT: Seismic Imaging of the Eastern Pacific Plate. 97. STUDENT: Vp/Vs Ratios of the Source Region of
Cronin, Meagan, A., Brown Justin, R. West Bohemian Earthquake Swarms. Bachura, M.,
80. STUDENT: The Surface Wave, Shear Wave Splitting, Fischer, T.
and Higher Mode Seismic Anisotropy Comparison of 98. STUDENT: Attenuation of the Coda Waves in West
the Mexican Subduction Zone. Stubailo, I., Davis, P. M. Bohemia Earthquake Swarm Region. Bachura, M.,
81. Relating Seismic Subduction Images in Southern Peru to Fischer, T.
Mineralogy. Kim, Y., Clayton, R. W. 99. Seismic Interferometry Using Regional Earthquake
82. STUDENT: Joint Inversion of Body Wave Receiver Records. Juarez, A., Ramirez-Guzman, L., Rabade, S.
Function and Rayleigh Wave Ellipticity. Chong, J., 100. Joint Inversion of Seismic and Gravity Data for Velocity
Ni, S. Structure and Hypocentral Locations of the Colombian
83. Lateral Variations of P-Wave Velocity Gradient in the Subduction Zone. Syracuse, E. M., Maceira, M., Prieto,
Uppermost Mantle Under Eurasia. Yang, X. G. A., Zhang, H., Ammon, C. J.
84. STUDENT: Short-Period Surface-Wave Tomography 101. Distinguishing Artifacts of Earthquake Catalog Errors
from Ambient Noise: Alborz Mountain Region of Iran. from Genuine Seismicity Patterns. Zaliapin, I., Ben-
Crippen, A. G., Ferris, A., Priestly, K., Tatar, M. Zion, Y.
85. Shallow Crustal Discontinuities from High-Frequency 102. STUDENT: Earthquake Cluster Identification in the San
Waveforms of Swarm Earthquakes in West Jacinto Fault Zone. Zhang, Q., Shearer, P. M.
Bohemia/Vogtland Seismoactive Area. Vavrycuk, V., 103. STUDENT: Characterization of Seismic Swarms in Utah.
Hrubcova, P., Bouskova, A. Batchelor, C. E., Koper, K. D., Pankow, K. L.
86. Seismic Structures in Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii. Lin, G., 104. Earthquake Frequency - Magnitude Distribution and
Shearer, P. M., Amelung, F., Okubo, P. G. Fractal Dimension in Northern California. Karimi, S.,
87. STUDENT: 3 Dimensional Ray-Bending Seismic Baturan, D., Greig, W., Law, A.
Tomography of the Peruvian Andes Crustal Root and 105. STUDENT: Analysis on the Possibility of the
the Subducting Nazca Plate. Abatchev, Z., Davis, P. Independence Between the 2013 Lushan Earthquake
88. Development of a Low Cost Method to Estimate and the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake on Longmen Shan
the Seismic Signature of a Geothermal Field from Fault, Sichuan, China. Ke, K. J., Shiyong, S. Y. Z.,
Ambient Seismic Noise Analysis. Tibuleac, I. M., Jiancang, J. C. Z., Changsheng Jiang, C. S. J.
Pullammanappallil, S., McLachlan, H. 106. STUDENT: Gorda and Juan de Fuca Plate Seismicity
89. Comparison of Ambient Noise and Active Source Recorded by the Cascadia Initiative and Blanco
Analysis of Shallow Structures within an Urban Transform Fault Zone Seismic Arrays. Ghorbani, P.,
Environment along the Kapiti Coast New Zealand. Nabelek, J., Braunmiller, J.
Pancha, A., Tibuleac, I. M., Pullammanappallil, S., 107. Retrieving Source Time Functions of Regional Phases
Stern, T. and Coda Using Array Data. Xie, J.
90. A Test of a 13,000-kg Weight-Drop Seismic Source. 108. STUDENT: Recognition of Stick-Slip Surface Wave
Abbott, R. E., Preston, L. Signals from the Whillans Ice Stream: a Data Mining
91. STUDENT: Error Analysis and Temporal Variations of Approach Combining Subspace Detection and Random
Cross-Correlations of Ambient Noise. Liu, X., Ben- Forest Classification. Bernsen, S. P.
Zion, Y., Zigone, D. 109. Seismic Zones Regionalization of the Red Sea Region.
92. Multi-pathing of Rayleigh Waves Retrieved from Alamri, A.
Ambient Seismic Noises. Xia, Y. J., Ni, S. D. 110. Seismic Crisis at Chiles and Cerro Negro Volcanoes.
93. Co-Seismic Velocity Change Associated With the 2011 Torres Corredor, R., Cadena Ibarra, O., Gómez
M7.1 Van/Turkey Earthquake: Crustal Response to a Martínez, D., Ruiz, M., Prejean, S., Lyons, J., White, R.
Major Event. Acarel, D., Bulut, F., Bohnhoff, M. 111. Earthquakes Trigger True Polar Wander Over
94. Extending SALSA3D: Adding Secondary Phases to a Geological Times. Cambiotti, G., Wang, X., Sabadini,
Global 3D Model for Improved Seismic Event Location. R., Yuen, D. A.

on 09 October 2018
112. STUDENT: Multi-Decadal Analysis of Global Trends in Sequence. Kwong, K. B., DeShon, H. R., Thurber, C. H.,
Microseism Intensities: A Proxy for Changes in Storm Saul, J.
Activity and Oceanic Wave State. Anthony, R. E., Aster, 127. STUDENT: Interseismic Coupling on the Main
R. C., Rowe, C. Himalayan Thrust, Implications for Extreme
113. Seismic Unrest At the Chiles – Cerro Negro Volcanic Earthquakes. Stevens, V. L., Avouac, J. P. H.
Complex, Ecuador. Hernandez, S., Ruiz, M., Segovia, 128. Seismic Intensity Maps for Scenario Events on the
M., Viracucha, E. Eastern Segments of North Anatolian Fault Zone
of Turkey based on Simulated Ground Motion
Data. Karim Zadeh Naghshineh, S., Askan, A.,
Slow Earthquakes: Diversity in Fault Motion and Their Bilal, M.
Implications in Earthquake Dynamics (see page 683) 129. STUDENT: Continuing Geophysical Analysis of
Seismically Active Structures in the Matanuska-Susitna
Valley Region near Anchorage, Alaska. Glover, C. O.,
114. Shallow Up-Dip Deformation, Tremor, and Very-Low- Doser, D. I., Schinagel, S. M.
Frequency Earthquakes at an Erosional Margin: 6 130. The Yakutat Plate and Its Southcentral Alaska
Years of Data from the Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica. Megathrust Earthquakes. Reeder, J. W.
Schwartz, S. Y., Hernandez, S. 131. Seismicity, Strain and Hazards at the Mendocino Triple
115. STUDENT: A Multi-Method Systematic Search for Non- Junction, Northern California. McPherson, B. C.,
Volcanic Tremor near the San Jacinto Fault. Hutchison, Smith, S. W., Williams, T. B., Pryor, I., Patton, J. R.,
A. A., Ghosh, A. Rollins, J. C., Hemphill-Haley, M., Carver, G.
116. Challenges Detecting Ambient Tectonic Tremors in 132. Mismatch Between Interseismic Ground Deformation
Southern California. Brown, J. R. and Paleoseismic/Paleogeodetic Observations,
117. STUDENT: Quantify Slow-Slip and Tremor in Parkfield, Humboldt Bay, Northern California, Cascadia
CA. Delbridge, B., Bürgmann, R., Nadeau, R. M. Subduction Zone. Patton, J. R., Leroy, T. H., Williams,
118. Scaling Relation in Slip Deficit During Interseismic T. B., McPherson, R. C., Anderson, J. K., Burgette, R.,
Period from Numerical Simulations. Aochi, H., Ide, S. Hemphill-Haley, M., Weldon, R., Carver, G.C., Kelsey,
119. Identifying Episodic Tremor and Slip in the Pacific H. M.
Northwest from PBO GPS and Strainmeter Time Series. 133. Sedimentary Evidence for the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman
Puskas, C. M., Hodgkinson, K. M., Melbourne, T., Subduction Zone Earthquake. Patton, J. R., Goldfinger,
Phillips, D. A., Meertens, C. M. C., Djadjadihardja, Y., Udrekh,
120. A Study of Low Frequency Earthquake Magnitudes in 134. STUDENT: Dynamically Triggered Earthquakes and
Northern Cascadia. Bostock, M. G., Thomas, A. M. Tremor: A Look at Western North America Using Two
121. STUDENT: Source Mechanism and Tsunami Generation Recent Large Magnitude Events. Hatch, R. L., Polet, J.
of the 2013 Balochistan Earthquake. Parameswaran, R. 135. Radiated Seismic Energy of the 18 April 2014
M., Rajendran, K. Papanoa, Mexico Earthquake (Mw7.2), and its Principal
Aftershocks. Pérez-Campos, X., Singh, S. K.
136. Frequency of Plausible, Worst-Case Scenario
Earthquakes on the Southernmost San Andreas Fault.
The Where, When and Why of Uncharacteristic Yule, D., Scharer, K., Sieh, K., Wolff, L., Witkosky, R.,
Earthquakes (see page 685) McBurnett, P., Ramzan, S.
137. STUDENT: Using B4 Lidar and Crn Age Data to
122. STUDENT: Triggered Seismicity due to Barometric Constrain Slip Rates Along the San Andreas Fault
Pressure Changes. West, J. D., Garnero, E. J., Shirzaei, System At Millard Canyon, San Gorgonio Pass.
M. Desjarlais, I. C., Yule, J. D., Heermance, R. V.
123. Observations of Temporal Variations in Seismicity and 138. STUDENT: New High-Resolution Topographic Data
Crustal Properties. Delorey, A. A., Johnson, P. A. and Updated Tectonic Geomorphology at Wheeler
124. STUDENT: Dynamic Triggering in Yunnan Following Ridge, California. Kleber, E. J., Arrowsmith, J. R.,
the 2012 Indian Ocean Earthquake. Li, L., Peng, Z., DeVecchio, D. E.
Wang, B., Wu, J. 139. Analysis of the March 21, 2009 (M=4.8) Bombay Beach
125. STUDENT: Self-Sustained Dynamic Triggering of Small Earthquake Swarm. Simila, G., McStroul, G.
Local Earthquakes in the Himalayas. Mendoza, M. M., 140. Whatever Does a M5.8 Earthquake on the Low Angle
Ghosh, A., Rai, S. S. Normal Altotiberina Fault (Italy)? Braun, T., Caciagli,
126. STUDENT: Teleseismic Double-Difference Relocation M., Pucci, S., Batllo, J., Cesca, S.
of the 2012 Indian Ocean Intraplate Earthquake

on 09 October 2018
Thursday, 23 April Oral Sessions

Induced Seismicity Observing Central Coastal Characterizing the Earthquake
Session Chairs: Ivan Infrasonic Sources California Potential Impacts Processes and
Wong, Justin from Ground to Tectonics of Surface Fault Multiscale
Rubinstein, Thomas Space Session Chairs: Rupture on Modeling and
Braun and T.H.W. Session Chairs: Stuart Nishenko, Transportation Characterization of
Goebel (see page Omar Marcillo, Neal Driscoll and Systems Fragmentation and
689) Stephen Janet Watt (see page Session Chairs: Zia Damage Patterns
Arrowsmith and 697) Zafir, Jonathan Bray in Fault Zones
Lucie Rolland (see and James Gingery Session Chairs:
page 693) (see page 702) Ahmed Elbanna and
Harsha Bhat (see
page 706)
8:30 Geomechanical STUDENT: Joint Central Coastal INVITED: Towards STUDENT: Strain
AM Assessment of Inversion of Seismic California Seismic the Development of Localization and
Seismicity from and Barometric Imaging Project: An Design Curves for Efficiency of
Hydraulic Data for Overview. Characterising Initiating Strike-Slip
Fracturing. Surface-Pressure Nishenko, S., Strike-Slip Surface Faults in Wet
Maxwell, S. C. Source: Monitoring Greene, H. G., Fault Rupture Kaolin Experiments.
of the Decay of a O’Connell, D. R. H., Displacement: An Hatem, A. E.,
Hurricane Eyewall. Hogan, P., Unruh, Example from the Cooke, M. L.,
Lamontagne, A., J., AbramsonWard, 2010 Greendale Toeneboehn, K.
Tanimoto, T. H., McLaren, M. K. Fault Rupture, New
Zealand. Van
Dissen, R. J.,
Hornblow, S.,
Litchfield, N.,
Quigley, M.,
Villamor, P., Nicol,
A., Barrell, D. J. A.
8:45 STUDENT: The Shock Wave INVITED: The INVITED: Very A Comparative
AM Role of Fractures Velocity for the California Seafloor Near-Fault Strong Study of Seismicity
and Faults in 2011 Shimoe-dake, Mapping Program Ground Motions. Statistics in
Hydraulic Kirishima Eruption Documents Active Dreger, D. S., Laboratory
Fracturing: A of 1 February 2011. Faults Offshore Chopra, A. K., Yoo, Stick-Slip
Percolation Mori, J., Yamada, Central California. S. H. Experiments,
Perspective. Norris, M. Johnson, S. Y., Mining Operations
J. Q., Turcotte, D. Watt, J. T. and Nature:
L., Rundle, J. B. Implications for
Fault Mechanics.
Goebel, T. H. W.,
Kwiatek, G., Becker,
T. W., Sammis, C.
G., Dresen, G.

on 09 October 2018
Thursday, 23 April (continued)
Induced Seismicity Observing Central Coastal CA Char Potential Multiscale
Infrasonic Sources Tectonics Impacts . . . Modeling . . .
9:00 Application of INVITED/STUDENT: INVITED: INVITED: STUDENT:
AM Large-Scale Infrasound in the High-resolution Numerical and Multiscale,
Earthquake Stratosphere Neotectonic Physical Modelling Spontaneous
Simulations to Measured with a Investigation of the of Fault Rupture Stick-Slip Events in
Seismicity Induced Free Flying Acoustic San Gregorio Fault Propagation Rotary-Shear
by Fluid Injection. Array. Bowman, D. Zone, Offshore through Soil and Experiments as
Dieterich, J. H., C., Lees, J. M. Central California. Interaction with Analogous to
Richards-Dinger, K. Maier, K. L., Paull, Foundation- Earthquake
B., Kroll, K. A. C. K., Brothers, D. Structure Systems. Rupture. Zu, X.,
S., McGann, M., Anastasopoulos, I., Reches, Z.
Caress, D. W., Gazetas, G.
Lundsten, E. M.,
Anderson, K.,
Gwiazda, R.
9:15 Peak Rates and INVITED: INVITED: Slip Rates INVITED: STUDENT:
AM Largest Magnitude Ionospheric for the Hosgri and Addressing Fault Multicycle
Events in Volcanic Seismology: from Shoreline Fault Rupture Hazard for Simulations of
Earthquake Swarms. Earth Maturity to Zones Offshore Bridges across Earthquake Rupture
McNutt, S. R. Venus Dreams. Coastal Central California. in Regions with
Lognonne, P., California – Results Sojourner, A., Complex Fault
Rolland, L., Rakoto, of High-Resolution Ostrom, T. A., Geometry. Kroll, K.
V., Coisson, P., 3D Seismic Shantz, T. J., A., Oglesby, D. O.,
Khelfi, K., Drilleau, Reflection Surveys. Yashinsky, M. Richards-Dinger, K.
M., Makela, J., Greene, H. G., B., Dieterich, J. H.
Astafyeva, E., Nishenko, S.,
Occhipinti, G., Hogan, P.,
Garcia, R., Mimoun, AbramsonWard, H.
D., Smrekar, S.
9:30 Are Source INVITED: Stratigraphic INVITED: STUDENT:
AM Characteristics of Infrasound Framework of the Characterization Conditions
Fluid Driven Techniques for Central California and Mitigation of Governing
Hydraulic Fracture Investigating the Shelf for Assessment Surface Fault Supershear
Induced Interior Structure of of Quaternary Rupture Hazard for Transition on
Earthquakes Venus. Stevenson, Activity of Offshore a Light Rail Project. Nonplanar Faults.
Distinct from D. J., Mimoun, D., Faults. Gingery, J. R., Bruhat, L.,
Natural Tectonic Members of the AbramsonWard, Rugg, S. H., Bray, J. Dunham, E. M.,
Earthquakes? KISS Venus H., Lewandowski, D., Rockwell, T. K., Fang, Z.
Viegas, G., Seismology Study N., Gray, B., Zafir, Z.
Urbancic, T., Team (Cutts, J.) Hanson, K., Greene,
Baig, A. H. G., Nishenko, S.
9:45–
10:45 Break
AM

on 09 October 2018
Induced Seismicity Microseismics in Central Coastal CA Capturing Site Multiscale
Academia, Tectonics Effects in Strong Modeling . . .
Government and Ground Motion
Industry Session Chairs:
Session Chairs: Domniki Asimaki,
Clifford Thurber, Adrian
Stephen Wilson and Rodriguez-Marek,
Giovanni Grasselli Jonathan Stewart
(see page 694) and Alan Yong (see
page 703)
10:45 Are ENA INVITED: What Shoreline and INVITED: Effects of A 3D, Rotationally
AM Potentially Induced Can Microseismic Oceano Fault Zones’ Surface and Invariant Form of
Earthquakes Tell Us About Geometry and Slip Underground Crustal Stress
Different from Hydraulic Rate Constraints, Topography on Relaxation
Natural Fracturing? San Luis Obispo Ground Motion: an Equations with
Earthquakes? Maxwell, S. C. Bay, Offshore South Overview of Some Applications for
Cramer, C. H. Central Coastal Recent European Earthquake
California. Hogan, Collaborative Simulation and
P. J., Greene, H. G., Results. Bard, P. Y., Off-Fault Moment
Nishenko, S., Cultrera, G., Release Estimates.
Bergkamp, B. J. Theodoulidis, N., Smith, D. E.,
Pitilakis, K., Faeh, Dieterich, J. H.
D., Parolaiap, S.,
Moczo, P.,
EXTENDED
NERA WP11 team :
C. Cornou, E.
Chaljub, A. Imtiaz,
A. Rovelli, P.
Bordoni, F. Cara, G.
DiGiulio, G. Milana,
V. Pessina, M.
Pisciutta, A.
Savvaidis, K. Makra,
E. Riga, F. Gelagoti,
J. Burjanek, C.
Cauzzi, T.
Boxberger, J.
Kristek, F.
Hollender, C.
Guyonnet-Benaize,
A. Stambouli, D.
Zendagui and
B. Derras

on 09 October 2018
Induced Seismicity Microseismics . . . Central Coastal CA Capturing Site Multiscale
Tectonics Effects . . . Modeling . . .
11:00 A Comparison of Resolving Time INVITED: 3D A Numerical Study Bigger Aftershocks
AM Stress Drop Between Dependant Stress Subsurface of the Occur Farther
Tectonic and Variations Through Structural Imaging Source-Related Away. van der Elst,
Potentially Induced Analysis of of the Irish Hills, Variability of Site N. J., Shaw, B. E.
Earthquakes in the Microseismicity (M California, Using Effect in the
CEUS. Boyd, O. S., < 0) Recorded Active Seismic, Mygdonian Basin,
McNamara, D., During Hydraulic Gravity, and Greece. Maufroy,
Hartzell, S., Fracture Magnetic Data. E., Chaljub, E.,
Choy, G. Stimulations. Baig, O’Connell, D. R. Hollender, F., Bard,
A. M., Urbancic, T. H., Turner, J., P. Y., De Martin, F.,
I., von Lunen, E. Gooodman, J., Roumelioti, Z.,
Lajoie, L., Sowers, J., Theodoulidis, N.
Angell, M.,
Nishenko, S., Zhou,
D., Wang, W.,
Zhang, J., Brock, K.
11:15 Are Earthquakes INVITED: Tracking Structure of the Horizontal-to- Local Fault
AM Triggered By Fluid-Driven Irish Hills, Vertical Spectral Structures from
Hydraulic Earthquake Swarms California, From Ratios (HVR) for Directivity Analysis
Fracturing More in Long Valley Synthesis of Seismic Microtremors and of Small
Common Than Caldera, California Reflection, Earthquake Earthquakes at the
Previously using Massive Geophysical and Motions: Diffuse San Jacinto Fault
Recognized? Waveform-Based Geological Data. Field Interpretation Zone. Kurzon, I.,
Holland, A. A., Methods. Shelly, D. Unruh, J., Givler, of the Ratios of Vernon, F. L.,
Darold, A. P. R., Ellsworth, W. L., R., Goodman, J., HVR. Kawase, H., Astiz, L.
Montgomery- Turner, J., Mori, Y.,
Brown, E. K., Hill, O’Connell, D., Matsushima, S.,
D. P., Prejean, S. G., Nishenko, S. Nagashima, F.,
Mangan, M. T. Sánchez-Sesma, F. J.
11:30 INVITED: Seismic INVITED: Seismic Signs of a Subtle Understanding, A Multiscale Model
AM Monitoring and Monitoring of the Near-Coast Shear Parameterization for Shear flow of
Analysis of a Deep Aaknes Rockslide. Strain Rate Gradient and Simulation of Granular Materials
Geothermal Project Kühn, D., Fischer, Revealed by Three-Dimensional with Breakable
in St. Gallen, T., Roth, M. Application of New Topography Effects. Particles: Role of
Switzerland. Analysis Methods to Jeong, S., Force Chain
Edwards, B., Kraft, the Central Mohammadi, K., Instabilities and
T., Cauzzi, C., California Coast Asimaki, D. Implications for
Kästli, P., Ranges GPS Strain Localization,
Wiemer, S. Velocity Field. Grain Size
Thatcher, W., Evolution and
Murray, J. A., Energy Partitioning.
Simpson, R. Elbanna, A. E.

on 09 October 2018
Induced Seismicity Microseismics . . . Central Coastal CA Capturing Site Multiscale
Tectonics Effects . . . Modeling . . .
11:45 INVITED: Was INVITED: INVITED: STUDENT: STUDENT:
AM 2012 Brawley Double-Difference Preliminary Diffracted Modeling the LA
Swarm Triggered by Seismic Findings of the Wave-field and SF Repeating
Fluid Injection? Tomography: Independent Peer Decomposition and Sequences in
Wei, S. J., Avouac, Multiple Scales and Review Panel for Multi-dimensional Parkfield. Lui, S. K.
J. P., Hudnut, K. Joint Inversions. Seismic Hazard Site Effects in the Y., Lapusta, N.
W., Donnellan, A., Zhang, H., Studies at Diablo Argostoli Valley,
Parker, J. W., Thurber, C. H. Canyon. Wills, C. Greece. Imtiaz, A.,
Graves, R. W., Cornou, C., Bard, P.
Helmberger, D. V., Y., Hobiger, M.,
Fielding, E., Liu, Z, Cultrera, G.,
Cappa, F, Eneva, M. Boxberger, T.,
Theodoulidis, N.
Noon–
1:30 Lunch
PM
Induced Seismicity Status and Future Recent Advances in Capturing Site Advances in
of Earthquake Understanding the Effects. . . Earthquake Source
Early Warning Onshore and Inversion
Session Chairs: Offshore Southern Session Chairs: Paul
Sarah Minson and California Fault Martin Mai, Lingsen
Egill Hauksson, System Meng, Shengji Wei,
Thomas Heaton Session Chairs: Nate Jean-Paul Ampuero
(see page 695) Onderdonk and and Danijel
Robert Francis (see Schorlemmner (see
page 699) page 708)
1:30 INVITED: Changes INVITED: STUDENT: INVITED/STUDENT: STUDENT:
PM in the ShakeAlert Progress: Holocene Evolution The Influence of Complexities of
Characteristics of Implementing of Carpinteria Hard Rock Depth Interplate
Induced Seismicity Public Earthquake Marsh, Southern on Nonlinear Site Earthquakes of
due to long-term Early Warning for California: Evidence Response Analysis in Multiple Rupture
Fluid Injection at the U.S. Given, D., for Subsidence. the Eastern United Stages Revealed by
The Geysers West Coast Reynolds, L. C., States. Harmon, J., Back-Projection.
Geothermal Field: Earthquake Early Simms, A. R., Hashash, Y. M. A., Fan, W.,
Implications to Warning Rockwell, T. K., Nikolaou, S., Shearer, P. M.
Fracture Generation Development Team Peters, B. Pehlivan, M.,
Mechanism and Stewart, J. P., Rathje,
Seismic Hazard. E. M., Campbell, K.
Kwiatek, G., W., Silva, W. J.
Martínez-Garzón,
P., Bohnhoff, M.,
Dresen, G., Sone,
H., Hartline, C.

on 09 October 2018
Induced Seismicity Status & Future of Recent Adv in Capturing Site Adv in EQ Source
EQ Warning Understanding . . . Effects. . . Inversion
1:45 INVITED: Oilfield INVITED: A P-wave Interseismic Strain Vs30 for Site Effective 1D Model
PM Operations and Based, On-site Accumulation Response – Why, Inversion from
Earthquakes in the Method for Across Metropolitan When, and How? Teleseismic
Greater Los Angeles Earthquake Early Los Angeles: Deep Kamai, R., Empirical Green’s
Basin, Southern Warning. Slilp Along the Abrahamson, N. A., Functions. Yue, H.,
California: Colombelli, S., Puente Hills Thrust. Silva, W. J. Helmburger, D.
Analyzing a Century Caruso, A., Zollo, Argus, D. F.,
of Data, Including A., Festa, G., Agram, P.
Volume Changes Kanamori, H.
and Mmax.
Hauksson, E.,
Goebel, T. H. W.,
Ampuero, J. P.,
Cochran, E.
2:00 STUDENT: Joint Variations in Slip On the Accuracy of STUDENT:
PM Potential Induced Seismic-Geodetic Rate and Size of Vs30-based Site Back-Propagating
Seismicity in the Real-Time Finite Pre-Historic Response Rupture during the
Raton Basin, Fault Models for Earthquakes During Amplifications in 2014 Iquique Chile
Colorado and New Earthquake Early the Past 2000 years California. Earthquake.
Mexico, 2008-2009. Warning. Minson, on the Northern San Thompson, E. M., Okuwaki, R., Yagi,
Nakai, J. S., S. E., Böse, M., Jacinto Fault Zone Wald, D. J. Y., Hirano, S.
Sheehan, A. F., Felizardo, C., and Implications for
Weingarten, M., Heaton, T. H., the Lack of Major
Bilek, S. L. Hauksson, E. Historic
Earthquakes on the
Fault. Onderdonk,
N. W., McGill, S. F.,
Rockwell, T. K.
2:15 Wastewater Prediction of STUDENT: STUDENT: Source
PM Disposal, Hydraulic Ground Shaking Frictional Accounting for Characteristics of
Fracturing, and from Shaking Itself: Properties, Slip Impedance and the 23 October
Seismicity in Application of Rates, and Attenuation Effects 2011 Mw 7.2 Van
Southern Kansas. Numerical Shake Unknown Faults in on Input Ground Earthquake
Rubinstein, J. L., Prediction Method the Imperial Valley: Motions used in Site Sequence in SE
Ellsworth, W. L., for Various New Results from Response Analyses. Anatolia.
Benz, H., Walter, S., Frequency Bands. High-Resolution Cabas, A., Gorgun, E.
Llenos, A. Hoshiba, M., Geodesy. Lindsey, Rodriguez-
Aoki, S. E. O., Fialko, Y. Marek, A.

on 09 October 2018
2:30 Are There Relations Towards Real-Time New Constraints on Site Effects and A New Strategy to
PM between Basement Risk Reduction for Active Fault Ground Motion Compare Inverted
Geologic Features Strategic Facilities Architecture in the Variability: Rupture Models
and Seismicity in through Earthquake Inner California Traditional Spectral Exploiting the
Oklahoma? Early Warning: Borderlands, Ratios vs. GMPE Eigen-Structure of
Constraints from Summary of the Offshore Southern Residuals. the Inverse Problem.
Magnetic and REAKT Experience. California. Ktenidou, O. J., Gallovic, F.,
Gravity Anomaly Cauzzi, C., Sousa Bormann, J. M., Roumelioti, Z., Ampuero, J. P.
Maps. Shah, A. K., Oliveira, C., Kent, G. M., Abrahamson, N. A.,
Keller, G. R. Iervolino, I., Emolo, Driscoll, N. W., Cotton, F., Pitilakis,
A., Zollo, A., Kell, A. M., K., Hollender, F.
Zülfikar, C., Sahakian, V. J.,
Pitilakis, K., Harding, A. J.,
Vogfjord, K., Lai, C., Holmes, J. J.,
Sokos, E.,Erdik, M., Klotsko, S. A.,
Safak, E., Gasparini, Wesnousky, S. G.
P., Wiemer, S.,
Zschau, J., Behr, Y.,
Clinton, J., Esposito,
S., Colombelli, S.,
Picozzi, M.,
Karapetrou, S.,
Bindi, D., Zuccolo,
E., Parolai, S.,
Miranda, N.,
Ferreira, M.,
Jonsdottir, K., and
the WP7 end-user
community.
2:45–
3:45 Break
PM

on 09 October 2018
3:45 STUDENT: Optimizing High-Resolution INVITED: STUDENT:
PM Scientific Principles Earthquake Early Mapping of Two PRENOLIN Project: Resolvability Power
Affecting Protocols Warning Alert Lead Large-Scale a Benchmark on of Finite Fault
for Times in the Pacific Transpressional Numerical Simulation Inversions. Adams,
Site-characterization Northwest. Bodin, Fault Zones in the of 1-D Nonlinear Site M., Ji, C.,
and Risk Assessment P., Hotovec-Ellis, A. California Effect. 3 – Preliminary Archuleta, R.
Related to the J., Hartog, J. R., Continental Results from the
Potential for Kress, V., Vidale, J. Borderland: Santa Validation Phase on
Seismicity Triggered Cruz-Catalina Ridge Real Sites. Régnier, J.,
by Wastewater and Ferrelo. Legg, Bonilla, L. F., Bard, P.
Injection and M. R., Kohler, M. Y., Bertrand, E.,
Hydraulic D., Shintaku, N., Kawase, H.,
Fracturing. Walters, Weeraratne, D. S. Hollender, F., Marrot,
R. J., Zoback, M. D., M., Sicilia, D., & the
Baker, J. W., PRENOLIN
Beroza, G. C. participants:
Assimaki, D., Boldini,
D., Iai, S., Kramer, S.,
Foerster, E., Gélis, C.,
Gazetas, G., Gingery,
J., Hashash, Y.,
Moczo, P., Foti, S.,
Lanzo, G.,
Lopez-Caballero, F.,
DeMartin, F., Jeremic,
B., Nieto-Ferro, A.,
Santisi, M.P.,
Mercerat, D.,
Tropeano, G., Taibat,
M., Giannakou, A.
4:00 How Similar are the Confirming STUDENT: Imaging Non-Ergodic Site Finite Fault
PM Seismic Hazards Earthquakes in the Newport- Response using Kinematic Inversion
from Natural and Earthquake Early Inglewood/Rose Amplification with Regional Data
Fluid-Induced Warning Systems. Canyon Fault Zone; Derived from 1D and its Utility for
Earthquakes? Kuyuk, H. S., Implications with Analysis. Afshari, K., Tsunami
McGarr, A., Colombelli, S., Current Fault Stewart, J. P., Goulet, Inundation
Rubinstein, J., Zollo, A., Allen, R. Models. Sahakian, C. A. Prediction. Melgar,
Ellsworth, W. M., Erdik, M. O. V. J., Bormann, J. D., Riquelme, S.,
M., Klotsko, S. A., Geng, J., Allen, R.
Holmes, J. J., M., Bock, Y.
Driscoll, N. W.,
Harding, A. J.,
Kent, G. M.,
Wesnousky, S. G.

on 09 October 2018
4:15 Incorporating Use of Smart Phones Shear Zone Comparisons of Dynamic Rupture vs
PM Induced Seismicity for Resolving Evolution Within a Low-Strain Aseismic Slow-Slip:
in the 2014 United Frequency Content Widening Rift Amplification at the 2014 Iquique
States National of Artificial System: San Pedro Soft-Sediment, Earthquake
Seismic Hazard Non-stationary Basin fault – San Hard-Rock, Sequence. Meng, L.,
Models. Petersen, Synthetic Signal. Diego Trough fault, Topographic, and Huang, H.,
M. D., Mueller, C. Aktas, M., Kuyuk, Offshore Southern Fault-Zone Sites in the Burgmann, R.,
S., Moschetti, M. P., H. S. California. Francis, Hayward Fault Zone, Ampuero, J. P.,
Hoover, S. M., R. D., Legg, M. R., California. Catchings, Strader, A.
Rubinstein, J. L., Castillo, C. M. R. D., Strayer, L. M.,
Llenos, A. L., Goldman, M. R.
Michael, A.,
Ellsworth, W. L.,
Holland, A.A.,
Anderson, J.G.
4:30 Examination of the STUDENT: myShake The Palos Verdes The Interpacific STUDENT: Seismic
PM Strong Motion and - Building Fault Offshore Project: an Rupture of Oceanic
Broadband Data for Smartphone Seismic Southern California: International Strike-slip
Injection-Induced Network. Kong, Q., Late-Pleistocene to Cooperative Earthquakes.
Earthquakes in the Allen, R. Present Tectonic Benchmark for Aderhold, K.,
U.S. Wong, I., Bott, Geomorphology, Assessing Reliability Abercrombie, R. E.
J., Dober, M., Seascape Evolution and Accuracy of
Thomas, P. and Slip-Rate Invasive and
Estimate Based on Non-invasive Seismic
Auv and Rov Methods for Site
Surveys. Brothers, Characterization.
D. S., Conrad, J. E., Garofalo, F., Foti, S.,
Maier, K. L., Paul, Hollender, F., Cornou,
C. K., McGann, M., C., Bard, P. Y., Cox, B.
Caress, D. W. R., Dechamp, A.,
Ohrnberger, M., Sicilia,
D., Vergniault, C.
4:45 Shallow Earthquake Early STUDENT: Characteristics and Site STUDENT: The
PM Earthquakes and Warning and Rapid Quaternary Response Applications Depth-Dependent
Ground Shaking Characterization in Subsidence and of Measured 6DOF Potency of
near Newmont the Western U.S. Active Tectonics, Ground Motions at Subduction Zone
Mining and Barrick Using Insights from the GVDA. Yin, J., Earthquakes.
Goldstrike Facilities, Seismogeodesy. Submerged Marine Nigbor, R. L., Chen, Q. Nanjundiah, P.,
Carlin, Nevada. Goldberg, D. E., Terraces Barbot, S.
Smith, K., Bock, Y., Clayton, R., Surrounding Santa
Jamkhana, Z., Crowell, B. W., Fang, Catalina Island.
Ferland, P., Kent, G. P., Geng, J., Haase, J. Castillo, C. M.,
S., Mann, D., Klemperer, S. L.,
Mattioli, G.S., Francis, R. D., Legg,
Melgar, D., Mencin, M. R.
D., Offield, D. G.,
Saunders, J. K.,
Squibb, M. B., Walls,
C., Yu, E.

on 09 October 2018
Thursday, 23 April Poster Sessions (2012). Dujardin, A., Causse, M., Courboulex, F.,
Traversa, P.
Advances in Earthquake Source Inversion (see page 710) 15. STUDENT: Updating the Memphis Area Urban Seismic
and Liquefaction Hazard Maps. Dhar, M. S., Cramer, C.
1. The Self-Similarity and Heterogeneity of Slip H., Arellano, D.
Distribution on the Fault Surface. Lee, Y. T., Ma, K. 16. STUDENT: Seismic Amplification in the Los Angeles
F., Yen, Y. T. Basin Using Spectral Ratio Analysis: Preliminary Results
2. A Kinematic Rupture Model for the 2012 Costa from a Temporary Seismic Deployment. Ng, R.,
Rica Earthquake Derived with a Bayesian Inversion Barklage, M., Polet, J.
Approach. Zielke, O., McDougall, D., Mai, P. M., 17. STUDENT: Vs30, Topographic Slope, Z1: How Do Site-
Babuska, I. Condition Proxies Reduce Ground-Motion aAeatory
3. Green’s Function Calculation for Large and Complex Variability? Derras, B., Cotton, F., Bard, P. Y.
Ruptures –the SIV_in3 Experience. Zielke, O., 18. Investigation of the Ground Motion Variability
Okuwaki, R., van Driel, M., Pollitz, F., Yagi, Y., Associated with Site Response for Sites with Vs30 Over
Mai, P. M. 500 m/s. Yagoda-Biran, G., Anderson, J. G.
4. Effects of Three-Dimensional Crustal Structure and 19. Evaluation of Topographic Rock Sites as Reference Sites,
Smoothing Constraint on Earthquake Slip Inversions: Southeastern France: Application of the Frequency-
Case Study of the Mw6.3 2009 L’aquila Earthquake. Scaled Curvature Proxy. Maufroy, E., Perron, V.,
Gallovic, F., Imperatori, W., Mai, M. Hollender, F., Langlais, M., Cruz-Atienza, V. M.,
5. STUDENT: Slab Correction Operator. Bai, K., Li, D., Cotton, F.
Helmberger, D. 20. STUDENT: Improving the Understanding of the Link
6. Near Realtime, Multi-Approach Earthquake Source between Seismic Site Effects and the Geological Profile
Inversions, and an Extensive, Consistent Finite Fault for Sites in the United Kingdom. Tallett-Williams, S.,
Database. Hayes, G. P., Benz, H. M., Barnhart, W. D. Fenton, C.
7. Foreshocks and Nucleation Process of the Mw 6.3 21. Development of an Open-Source Hybrid Global Vs30
Northern Nagano Prefecture, Japan, Earthquake of Model. Worden, C. B., Wald, D. J., Sanborn, J.,
November 22, 2014. Noda, S., Ellsworth, W. L. Thompson, E. M.
8. STUDENT: A Systematic Investigation of the Relations 22. H/V Measurements to Determine Depth of Bedrock
Among Source Parameters for Earthquakes At and Vs30 in Boston, Massachusetts, a High Impedance
Intermediate Depths. Arce, A., Ji, C., Archuleta, R. J. Contrast Environment. Baise, L. G., Yilar, E.,
9. STUDENT: Focal Mechanisms of the 24 May 2014 Mw Ebel, J. E.
7.0 North Aegean Sea Earthquake Sequence. Gorgun, 23. Passive and Active Seismic Observations of Site and
B., Gorgun, E. Topographic Response on a Mesa near Los Alamos, New
10. STUDENT: Rapid Assessment of Earthquake Mexico. Stolte, A. C., Cox, B. R., Larmat, C. S., Stokoe,
Characteristics. Lui, S. K. Y., Yu, J., Wei, S., Graves, K. H., Lee, R. C.
R. W., Helmberger, D. V. 24. Site Effects in Alpine Regions through Systematic Site
Characterization of Seismic Stations and Empirical
Spectral Amplification. Michel, C., Edwards, B., Poggi,
Capturing Site Effects in Strong Ground Motion (see V., Burjanek, J., Cauzzi, C., Fäh, D.
page 712) 25. Clark County’s Earthquake Parcel Map: Comprehensive
Community Resilience for $20 per Household. Louie, J.
N., Pullammanappallil, S. K.
11. Quantification of the Spatially Variable Ground Motion
26. STUDENT: Mapping of Site Characteristics Using
and its Influence on the Linear and Non-linear Structural
HVSR on Cal Poly Pomona Campus. Ho, K. Y. K.,
Response of a Single Degree of Freedom. Application
Polet, J.
to the Shallow Sedimentary Valley of Argostoli, Greece.
27. Evaluation of Site Effect Features of Miocene Paleo-
Koufoudi, E., Cornou, C., Grange, S., Dufour, F., Imtiaz,
canyons in South Eastern France Using Ambient
A.
Vibration Methods. Hollender, F., Cushing, E. M.,
12. Site-Effects from the Observed Strong Ground Motions
Dussouillez, P., Nechtschein, S., Guyonnet-Benaize, C.,
in Western China. Rong, M., Wang, Z., Woolery, E. W.,
Bailly, T., Delavaud, E., Cornou, C., Bellier, O., Gelis, C.,
Lu, Y., Li, X.
Perron, V.
13. A Compilation of VS30 in the United States. Yong, A.,
28. Velocity Profile Characterization of French
Thompson, E. M., Wald, D. J., Knudsen, K. L., Odum, J.
Accelerometric Permanent Network Stations: Results,
K., Stephenson, W. J., Haefner, S.
Methodological Feedback and Implications. Hollender,
14. STUDENT: Simulation of the Basin Effects in the Po
F., Cornou, C., Dechamp, A., Renalier, F., Thomassin, S.
Plain During the Emilia-Romagna Seismic Sequence

on 09 October 2018
29. STUDENT: Aftershocks Recordings Since 2010 to 44. Revised Offshore Mapping of Fault and Fold
Highlight Site Effects in the Port-au-Prince Basin Deformation Associated with the Hosgri Fault Zone,
(Haiti). Comparison Between Spectral Ratio and 1D- the Point Buchon Fault and the Shoreline Fault, Central
Numerical Simulations. St Fleur, S., Courboulex, F., Coastal California. Angell, M., Buga, M., Turner, J.,
Bertrand, E., Deschamps, A., Mercier de Lepinay, B., Sowers, J., Nishenko, S.
Boisson, D., Hough, E. S. 45. Submarine Paleoseismic Slip Rate Constraints of
30. Improved Estimation of Site Response Using Random Hosgri Fault Zone from High-Resolution 3D Seismic-
Vibration Theory. Seifried, A. E., Toro, G. R. Reflection Data, Offshore Point Sal, Central Coastal
31. The Valley of Mexico Ground Motion: Regional, Local California. Hogan, P. J., Greene, H. G., Nishenko, S.,
and Soil-Infrastructure Interaction. Ramirez-Guzman, Bergkamp, B. J.
L. 46. INVITED: Advanced 3D Seismic Detection and
32. STUDENT: Effects of Site Geometry on Short-distance Visualization of Faults and Fluid Pathways along the
Spatial Coherency in Argostoli, Greece. Imtiaz, A., Hosgri Strike-Slip Fault Zone Offshore Point Sal,
Cornou, C., Bard, P. Y., Zerva, A. California. Kluesner, J., Brothers, D., Hogan, P., Greene,
33. Geophysical Characterization of Seismographic Station G., Nishenko, S., Watt, J., Johnson, S.
Sites in the Central and Eastern United States. Martin, 47. Restoring Fault Slip: Testing Alternative Correlations of
A. J., Stokoe, K. H., Salomone, L., Diehl, J. G. Faulted Channels Buried Beneath the Outer Continental
34. STUDENT: Site Amplification from Ambient Noise Shelf in Estero Bay and the Implications for Slip Rate
Wavefronts. Bowden, D. C., Tsai, V. C., Lin, F. C. of the Hosgri Fault. AbramsonWard, H., Lewandowski,
35. Determination of Vs30 at CGS Geotechnical Arrays N., Thompson, S., Hanson, K., Nishenko, S.
Using Strong-Motion Data. Haddadi, H., Shakal, A., 48. Shallow Subsurface 3D Structural Imaging Near Diablo
Huang, M. Canyon Power Plant, California, Using Active Seismic,
36. STUDENT: Updated Geospatial Liquefaction Model for Gravity, and Magnetic Data. Turner, J., Sowers, J.,
Global Use. Zhu, J., Baise, L. G., Thompson, E. M. Goodman, J., Lajoie, L., O’Connell, D., Nishenko, S.
Characterizing the Potential Impacts of Surface Fault

Central Coastal California Tectonics (see page 718)
Rupture on Transportation Systems (see page 721)
37. A Geologic Compilation Map of the Central California 49. INVITED: Engineering Consequences and Mitigation for
Coast Ranges West of the San Andreas Fault; Results, Surface Fault Rupture. Bray, J. D.
Challenges, and Potential Use in Seismic Hazard 50. Surface Fault Rupture Characteristics of Reverse Faults.
Analysis. Roberts, M. A., Graymer, R. W. Moss, R. E. S.
38. Geophysical Characterization of the Offshore Los Osos 51. Development and Applications of Probabilistic Fault
Fault Zone: Insights into Block Boundary Deformation. Displacement Hazard. Thio, H. K., Somerville, P.
Watt, J. T., Hardebeck, J. L., Johnson, S. Y.
39. Strike-slip Fault Structures Inferred from Seismicity in
Estero Bay, Central Coastal California. Hardebeck, J. Earthquake Processes and Multiscale Modeling and
L., Watt, J. T. Characterization of Fragmentation and Damage Patterns
40. A Propagating Half Graben Separates the Hosgri and in Fault Zones (see page 721)
San Simeon Fault Zones Offshore Cambria, California.
Rietman, J. D., Greene, H. G., Nishenko, S. P.
41. Fluid and Strong Ground-Motion Induced Slope 52. STUDENT: Dynamic Gouge Compaction and Dilatancy
Failures Along the Western Hosgri Fault Zone in as a Simple Mechanism for Fault Zone Weakening and
Northern Estero Bay Region, California. Greene, H. Short-Duration Slip Pulses. Hirakawa, E. T., Ma, S.
G., Rietman, J., Johnson, S. Y., Nishenko, S. 53. Characterization of Damage Structure and Heal of
42. PG&E Ocean Bottom Seismometer (OBS) Project: Rupture Zones by Fault-Zone Trapped Waves. Li, Y. G.
Initial Results from a Shallow Water Deployment, 54. Full Waveform Modeling of Regional and Fault-Specific
offshore Central California, 27 July 2013 to 1 April 2014. Seismic Phases Along the San Jacinto Fault Zone Using
McLaren, M. K. Realistic 3D Velocity Models. Allam, A. A., Tape, C.,
43. The Potential of a Seafloor Geodesy Network Off Ben-Zion, Y.
Central California to Constrain Present Day Hosgri 55. STUDENT: Shear-wave Anisotropy Near the San Jacinto
Fault Slip Rate. Ericksen, T., Chadwell, C. D., Brooks, Fault Zone, Southern California. Li, Z., Peng, Z., Ben-
B., Murray, J., Thatcher, W. Zion, Y., Vernon, F.

on 09 October 2018
56. STUDENT: Localized and Distributed Interseismic 71. Recurrence Analysis for Potentially Induced Earthquakes
Creep Along the Southern San Andreas Fault. in Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Raton Basin. Mueller, C.
Lindsey, E. O., Fialko, Y., Bock, Y., Sandwell, D. T., S., Moschetti, M. P.
Bilham, R. 72. The Conway Springs Earthquake of November 2014 –
57. STUDENT: How Do Free Surface Lateral Slip A Rare Moderate-Sized Earthquake in Kansas. Choy,
Distribution and Off Fault Plastic Strain on Strike G. L., Boyd, O. S., McNamara, D. E., Miller, R.,
Slip Faults Vary By Fault Surface Roughness? Yao, Q., Rubinstein, J.
Day, S., Shi, Z. 73. STUDENT: Characterization and Classification of
58. STUDENT: Scaling Properties of Foreshocks in Models Discrete Clusters of Earthquakes from 2008-2015
of Laboratory-Scale Rate-and-State Faults. Higgins, N., in North-Central Arkansas, Natural or Induced:
Lapusta, N. Illustrating Their Influence on the National Seismic
59. STUDENT: Source Geometry and Free Surface Hazard Maps. Ausbrooks, S. M., Horton, S. P.
Influence on Earthquake Rupture Characteristics in the 74. STUDENT: A 3D Model of Pore Pressure Diffusion
Subduction Zone off Mexico’s Pacific Coast. Carrillo- Associated with Induced Seismicity in Guy, Arkansas.
Lucia, M. A., Ramírez-Guzmán, L. Ogwari, P. O., Horton, S. P.
60. Imaging Supershear Laboratory Earthquakes with Ultra 75. Induced Seismicity in Western Alberta Due to Oil and
High-speed DIC. Rubino, V., Rosakis, A. J., Lapusta, N. Gas Activities. Wong, I., Bott, J., Nemser, E.
61. STUDENT: Towards Reconciling Magnitude-Invariant 76. Discrimination and Assessment of Potentially Induced
Stress Drops with Dynamic Weakening. Perry, S., Seismicity in Tectonic Active Zones – A Case Study from
Lapusta, N. California. Bachmann, C. E., Foxall, W.
77. Analysis of Seismicity Coincident with Hydraulic
Fracturing of a Well in Southern Oklahoma. Darold,
Induced Seismicity (see page 723) A. P., Holland, A., Gibson, A. R.
78. STUDENT: Towards Understanding Source Mechanism
of Hydraulic Fracturing Induced Earthquakes:
62. STUDENT: Statistical Properties of Induced and Sensitivity Analyses using a Constrained Focal
Triggered Earthquakes at The Geysers, California. Mechanism Inversion Method. Iida, S., Kim, A.
Hawkins, A. K., Turcotte, D. L., Yikilmaz, M. B., 79. Identification of Induced Seismicity Using the Theory of
Kellogg, L. H., Rundle, J. B. Records. Zhu, J., Baise, L. G., Vogel, R. M.
63. Magnitude-Frequency Distribution of Potentially 80. Fracture-Mechanics-Based Constraints of Maximum
Induced Earthquakes in the Guy, Arkansas Sequence. Magnitude of Induced Earthquakes. Galis, M.,
Huang, Y., Beroza, G. Ampuero, J. P., Mai, P. M.
64. STUDENT: Relative Contributions of Tectonic Strain 81. STUDENT: Source-Type Specific Inversion of Moment
and Pumping to Seismicity at California Geothermal Tensors. Nayak, A., Dreger, D. S.
Fields. Weiser, D. A., Jackson, D. J. 82. Statistical Properties of Microearthquakes Induced by
65. STUDENT: Detection of Induced Seismicity Due to Oil Hydraulic Fracturing. Maghsoudi, S., Eaton, D. W.,
and Gas Extraction in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, Davidsen, J.
USA. Fadugba, O. I., Ebel, J. E. 83. Preliminary Likelihood Testing of Earthquake Rate
66. Possible Effects of Geothermal Operations on Models from Induced Seismicity. Hoover, S. M.,
Earthquake Triggering Processes in the Salton Sea Moschetti, M. P., Petersen, M. D., McNamara, D. E.
Geothermal Field. Chen, X., McGuire, J. 84. Increased Earthquake Rates in the Central and Eastern
67. Improved Detection and Location of Microseismicity US Portend Higher Earthquake Hazards. Llenos, A.
During the 2005 Habanero EGS Stimulation in the L., Rubinstein, J. L., Ellsworth, W. L., Mueller, C. S.,
Cooper Basin of South Australia. Templeton, D. C., Michael, A. J., McGarr, A., Petersen, M. D., Weingarten,
Johannesson, G., Pyle, M., Matzel, E. M., Holland, A. A.
68. STUDENT: Characterizing Earthquake Clusters in 85. STUDENT: Combined Data Inversion for Full
Oklahoma Using Subspace Detection. McMahon, N. Moment Tensors of Small Earthquakes. Boyd, O. S.,
D., Benz, H. M., Aster, R. C., McNamara, D. E. Dreger, D. S.
69. Rupture Characteristics of Hydraulic Fracture Induced- 86. Cross-correlation Traffic Light Systems for Induced
Triggered Seismicity Using Wide-band Recordings from Seismicity. Friberg, P. A., Dricker, I. G.
0.1Hz to 1kHz. Urbancic, T. I., Baig, A. M., Bosman, K. 87. Surface Deformation Rates at the Southern Salton Sea:
70. STUDENT: Low Stress Drops Observed for the Ongoing Fault Slip or Geothermal Energy Production?
2011 M5.7 Prague, Oklahoma Earthquake Sequence. Barbour, A. J., Evans, E. L., Hickman, S. H., Eneva, M.
Neighbors, C., Sumy, D. F., Cochran, E. S., Atkinson, 88. STUDENT: Development of a Ground Motion
G. M., Keranen, K. M. Prediction Method for Carbon Dioxide Injection-

on 09 October 2018
Induced Earthquakes. Stone, I. P., Lee, R. C., Bradley, with One-dimensional Velocity Model Inversion. Li, Z.,
C. R., Larmat, C. S. Peng, Z.
89. STUDENT: Effects of the Earth Characteristics 105. STUDENT: Revised Pure-Python Phase Picker and 3D
on Induced Seismicity Potential. Hosseini, S. M., Event Associator. Chen, C., Holland, A. A.
Aminzadeh, F.
90. Monitoring Earthquakes Triggered by the Impoundment
of the La-Romaine-2 Reservoir, Quebec, Canada.
Lamontagne, M., Kara, R., Tournier, J. P., Noel, G., Observing Infrasonic Sources from Ground to Space (see
Lavoie, D. page 732)
91. Reservoir Induced/Triggered Seismicity: A Review.
Braun, T., Dahm, T., Kuehn, D.
106. Infrasound Observations From a Seismo-Acoustic
92. How to Mitigate Rockburst Induced Ground Excitations
Hammer Source at the Nevada National Security Site.
in Structural Design. Zembaty, Z., Kokot, S., Lai, C.
Jones, K. R., Abbott, R., Hampshire, J., White, R.,
93. Toward a Public Data Policy for Induced Seismicity in
Marcillo, O., Whitaker, R. W.
Italy. Priolo, E., Mucciarelli, M.
107. Simulation of Coupled Seismoacoustic Wave
Propagation in Three-Dimensions with a Summation-
by-Parts Finite Difference Method. Rodgers, A. J.,
Microseismics in Academia, Government and Industry Sjogreen, B., Petersson, N. A.
(see page 730) 108. A Statistical Framework for Inversion of Atmospheric
Winds using a Distant Continuous Infrasonic Source.
Blom, P. S., Arrowsmith, S. J.
94. 4D Tomography and Deformation from Microseismic 109. On the Array Processing of Wind-farm Infrasound
Data. Crowley, J. W., Baig, A. M., Urbancic, T. I. Signals. Marcillo, O., Arrowsmith,
95. Investigating the Relationship Between Velocity Model 110. On the Use of Microbarometers on Balloon Platforms to
Complexity and Earthquake Location Accuracy. Greig, Probe the Internal Structure of Venus. Arrowsmith, S.
D. W., Baturan, D., Law, A. J., Bowman, D., Rolland, L., Lees, J., Mimoun, D., Hall,
96. STUDENT: Complex Fault Structure Revealed with J., Blom, P., Marcillo, O., Whitaker, R.
Improved Earthquake Catalogs near the San Andreas 111. Radiation Patterns of Persistent Acoustic Sources
Fault Observatory at Depth Borehole Array. Walker, R. Investigated with Free-Flying Microphones. Lees, J. M.,
L., Okaya, D. A., Sumy, D. F. Bowman, D. C.
97. STUDENT: Exploring Differences between Epicenter 112. Spaced-Based Observations of Seismic-Infrasound-
locations from an Array of Surface Seismometers and Induced Ionospheric and Atmospheric Disturbances.
a Downhole Array of Geophones at The Napoleonville Yang, Y. -. M., Komjathy, A., Meng, X., Verkhoglyadova,
Salt Dome, Louisiana. Mousavi, S. M., Horton, S. O., Langley, R. B., Mannucci, A. J.
98. STUDENT: Study the Locations and Focal Mechanisms 113. Seismic and Ionospheric Signatures for Monitoring
of Micro-seismic Events Near a High Velocity Interface. the Initiation of a Tsunami. Rolland, L. M.,
Smith, T., Ji, C. Larmat, C.
99. STUDENT: Detection of Repeating Earthquakes Using
the Cascadia Initiative Amphibious Dataset. Morton, E.
A., Bilek, S. L., Rowe, C. A.
100. STUDENT: Automatic Detection and Picking of Direct Recent Advances in Understanding the Onshore and
P, S and Fault Zone Head & Trapped Waves. Ross, Z. Offshore Southern California Fault System (see page 733)
E., Ben-Zion, Y.
101. An Improved Algorithm for Automatic Picking of
Seismic S-wave Arrivals in Continuous Data with 114. An Active Northwest-Trending Normal Fault Zone in
Application to the San Jacinto Fault Zone. White, M., Santa Clarita, Transverse Ranges, Eastern Ventura Basin,
Ross, Z., Reyes, J., Vernon, F., Ben-Zion, Y. Southern California. Swanson, B. J.
102. STUDENT: Earthquake Detection in Central Virginia 115. STUDENT: Geodesy-Based Estimates of Loading Rates
Using a Dual Template and Autocorrelation Method. on Faults Beneath the Los Angeles Basin With a
Kelly, A. L., Brown, J. R. New, Computationally Efficient Method to Model
103. Automated P-wave Onset Time Detector based Dislocations in 3d Heterogeneous Media. Rollins, J. C.,
on Dissipated Damping Energy of SDF Oscillator. Landry, W., Barbot, S. D., Argus, D. F., Avouac, J. P.
Kalkan, E. 116. Identifying Surface Rupture Hazard Along the Northern
104. STUDENT: A Predict-and-Search Strategy for Picking Margin of the Los Angeles Basin. Treiman, J. A.,
P and S Phases: Signal-to-Noise Ratio Detector Joint Hernandez, J. L., Olson, B. P. E.

on 09 October 2018
117. Geomorphic Evaluation of the Santa Monica Fault Zone, Allen, R. M., Henson, I., Johanson, I., Neuhauser, D.,
Northwestern Los Angeles Basin, Southern California. Grapenthin, R.
Olson, B. P. E. 128. ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning in the Pacific
118. An Updated Evaluation of the Hollywood - Raymond Northwest. Hartog, J. R., Kress, V. C., Bodin, P.,
Fault Zones, Los Angeles, California. Hernandez, J. L., Henson, I. H., Neuhauser, D. S.
Olson, B. P. E. 129. Synthetic Testing of the Pacific Northwest Joint Seismic
119. Paleoseismology of the Southern Clark Strand of the San and Geodetic Earthquake Early Warning System.
Jacinto Fault Zone, Southern California. Buga, M. T., Crowell, B. W., Schmidt, D. A., Bodin, P., Vidale, J. E.
Rockwell, T. K., Owen, L. A. 130. Ground Motion Prediction Equations for Absolute
120. Strain Partitioning Along the Onshore Palos Velocity Response Spectra (1-10 s) in Japan for
Verdes Fault Zone: New Constraints on the Earthquake Early Warning. Dhakal, Y. P., Suzuki, W.,
Geometry, Distribution and Kinematics of Quaternary Kunugi, T., Aoi, S.
Deformation. Goodman, J. T., Ostenaa, D. A., Hogan, 131. Application of the Maximum Likelihood Earthquake
P. J., O’Connell, D. R. H., Turner, J. P. Location Method to Early Warning System in South
121. STUDENT: New High-Resolution 3D Imagery of Korea. Sheen, D. H., Seong, Y. J., Park, J. H., Lim, I. S.,
Deformation and Fault Architecture of the Newport- Chi, H. C.
Inglewood/Rose Canyon Fault in the Inner California 132. STUDENT: A Reality Check Algorithm Based on
Borderlands. Holmes, J. J., Driscoll, N. W., Sahakian, Waveform Envelopes in Early Warning. Karakus, G.,
V. J., Bormann, J. M., Kent, G. M., Harding, A. J., Heaton, T.
Wesnousky, S. G. 133. STUDENT: Apply Prior Information to Increase
122. Structure and Evolution of the THUMS-Huntington Warning Times for Earthquake Earning Warning. Yin,
Beach Fault, Offshore Southern California. Ishutov, S., L., Heaton, T.
Legg, M. R., Francis, R. D. 134. Refining Parameter Optimization for the Onsite
123. Structure and Evolution of the Eastern Boundary of the Earthquake Early Warning Algorithm. Andrews, J. R.,
California Outer Continental Borderland. De Hoogh, G. Cochran, E., Verrier, F., Hauksson, E., Felizardo, C.,
L., Nicholson, C., Sorlien, C., Francis, R. D. Boese, M.
124. Application of a New Event Detection Algorithm to an 135. CISN ShakeAlert: UserDisplay for Providing
Ocean Bottom Seismometer Dataset Recorded Offshore Earthquake Alerts to End-Users. Felizardo, C., Vinci,
Southern California. Kohler, M. D., Bunn, J. J., Chandy, M., Boese, M., Andrews, J., Hauksson, E., Heaton, T.
K. M., Weeraratne, D. S. 136. Implementation of GNSS-Constrained Real-Time
125. STUDENT: The ALBACORE OBS Array and a Finite Fault Modeling for Improved Earthquake Early
3D Seismic Velocity Model Offshore Southern Warning: Current Activities at USGS, Menlo Park.
California. Bowden, D. C., Kohler, M. D., Smith, D. E., Langbein, J. O., Murray, J. R., Guillemot,
Tsai, V. C. C., Minson, S. E.
137. Analysis of Spectral Characteristics of Pre-Earthquake
Ambient Seismic Noise for Advance Warning. Gupta, I.
Status and Future of Earthquake Early Warning (see page N., Schaff, D. P., Richards, P. G., Rastogi, B. K., Mahesh,
736) P., Mondal, P., Wagner, R. A.
138. Exploring the Readiness for Earthquake Early Warning
at Seismic Networks Across Europe. Behr, Y., Cauzzi, C.,
126. The Discrimination Filter to Avoid EEW Alerting Clinton, J. F., Jonsdottir, K., Comoglu, M., Erlendsson,
Triggered by Teleseismic Earthquakes using Geometric P., Marmureanu, A., Paraskevopoulos, P., Pinar, A.,
Distribution of Triggered Stations. Chi, H. C., Park, J. Salichon, J., Sokos, E.
H., Lim, I. S., Seong, Y. J. 139. STUDENT: Sensor-Cloud based Low Cost Wireless
127. ElarmS & GlarmS, UC Berkeley’s Earthquake Early Seismic Sensor for Earthquake Early Warning System,
Warning Algorithms in CISN ShakeAlert. Hellweg, M., QuickAlerT. Kuyuk, R. T., Kuyuk, H. S.

on 09 October 2018
SSA 2015
Abstracts of the Annual Meeting
Late changes will be reflected in the list of abstracts online at www.seismosoc.org/meetings/2015/abstracts/.
Presenting author is indicated in Underline.
that the mixture performs better than any of its component GMPEs, and that it
Objective Testing of PSHA & Earthquake Forecast Models performs comparable to a regression model that was derived for the same dataset.
Oral Session · Tuesday · 8:30 AM · 21 April · Ballroom B We believe that the mixture model approach might be useful to generate backbone
models in situations were the number of ground-motion data is insufficient to
Session Chairs: Danijel Schorlemmer, Matthew generate a region-specific GMPE. Furthermore, by using a Baysian framework it
Gerstenberger, Max Werner, Trevor Allen, Thomas Jordan becomes possible to automatically update a derived mixture as new data become
and Fabrice Cotton available allowing it to keep the ground-motion part of the logic tree up to date.
Revision of Earthquake Catalogues on Probabilistic Terms: Consequences on

Some Thoughts on Testing Probabilities and its Critical Importance for PSHA Validation
Science MUCCIARELLI, M., CRS-OGS, Trieste, Italy, mmucciarelli@inogs.it
MARZOCCHI, W., INGV, Rome, Italy, warner.marzocchi@ingv.it; JORDAN,
T. H., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, tjordan@usc.edu A previous work performed in the frame of the project SIGMA (SeIsmic Ground
Motion Assessment) concluded that the uncertainty on Mean Return Times
Recent years have been characterized by some of the harshest critics of the role caused by problems in intensity definition for site seismic histories is of the order
of Science as a distinctive enterprise of human activities, claiming that Science of 25-30%. The analysis of the rates from seismogenic zones suggest that the
does not have any peculiar feature with respect to other human activities like uncertainty due to epicentral intensity estimate is again about 25%, a relative error
Arts. The reaction of scientists has been nicely summarized by a report of the that will propagate in further steps of PSHA. This uncertainty could be reduced
largest scientific organization – the American Association for the Advancement of with a thorough revision of the catalogue in a probabilistic fashion, defining with
Science (AAAS) – that states “. . . the growing ability of scientists to make accurate the help of historians a “degree of belief” on each single intensity degree. In this
predictions about natural phenomena provides convincing evidence that we are study, the historical catalogue of the Po Plain has been revised on probabilistic
really gaining in our understanding of how the world works.” The term accurate terms, with an expert judgement that used probability to express the degree of
implicitly recalls the importance of model/hypothesis testing as further emphasized belief in different possible epicentral intensities. Mean return times were then
in the same AAAS document: “A hypothesis that cannot in principle be put to calculated from this new catalogue, and compared with the result of a standard
test of evidence may be interesting but it is not scientifically useful.” This talk approach that forces uncertain intensities on nearest integer values. The outcome
explores these themes in a seismological context, where the extreme complexity, showed that the variation in the estimate of MRT is ranging from 15 to 30% for
nonlinearities, limited knowledge, and large number of degrees of freedom of intensities comprised between VII and IX. The presence of this uncertainty should
the earthquake occurrence process make deterministic predictions difficult if not be considered in the validation activities of PSHA estimates.
impossible, and the evolution of such a system is estimated only probabilistically.
Yet, testing probabilities presents major challenges linked to, among several other
issues, the interpretation of the probability (frequency or degree of belief), the role Finding Where Forecasts Fail
of expert opinion, and the mixing/separation of aleatory variability and epistemic MICHAEL, A. J., USGS, Menlo Park, CA, michael@usgs.gov; LLENOS, A. L.,
uncertainty. We examine all these challenges in detail and we discuss a possible USGS, Menlo Park, CA, allenos@usgs.gov
conceptual framework that addresses them making any earthquake forecasting and
probabilistic seismic hazard models testable in a meaningful way. Finally, we show The 2008 National Seismic Hazard Map (NSHM) underestimates the current
how this framework works in real cases and how it avoids incorrect inferences and rate of seismicity in the central and eastern United States due to the increase
inapt comparisons among forecasts found in the recent literature. in seismicity in oil and gas-producing regions; although we note that the
NSHM model explicitly did not include induced seismicity. Specifically tying
the underestimate of the forecast to these regions requires identifying where the
Data-Driven Generation of Ground-Motion Backbone Models for the Logic forecast failed. Llenos et al. (Fall AGU, 2014) determined in which spatial bins
Tree the observed seismicity exceeds the forecast rate at a particular confidence level
HAENDEL, A., University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, ahaendel@uni- using a Poisson test. This approach treats each spatial bin independently, ignoring
potsdam.de; KUEHN, N. M., University of California, Berkeley, CA, kuehn@ the probability that with enough bins, some will exceed their forecast rate, at
berkeley.edu; SPECHT, S., GFZ Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, sspecht@uni- high confidence, simply due to random variability. Despite this simplification, it
potsdam.de; SCHERBAUM, F., University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, successfully identifies the most important regions of potentially induced seismicity.
fs@geo.uni-potsdam.de The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) log-
In probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, several empirically derived ground-motion likelihood tests are designed to determine if predicted seismicity rates, binned by
prediction equations (GMPEs) are commonly combined within a logic tree location and magnitude, successfully forecast the observed seismicity and include
framework to compute the ground shaking at a particular site. The selection of the random variability expected based on the set of forecasted rates. If a forecast
appropriate GMPEs is often a non-trivial task because the chosen set of models fails the CSEP tests, the N, M, and S tests help to determine if the problems are
needs to capture the whole range of ground-motion uncertainty. This is especially in the total rate, the magnitude-frequency distribution, or the spatial distribution,
the case for regions where strong-motion data are sparse and where no indigenous respectively. Unlike the Poisson test described above, these tests do not determine
model exists. In some recent hazard studies single high-quality GMPEs have exactly where the forecast has failed. We extend the CSEP tests to determine where
therefore been used as so called backbone models to represent the center of the the forecast is failing by determining the minimum mask required to remove bins
ground-motion distribution in the area of interest. These central models can been until the forecast succeeds. We compare the success of the Poisson test and the
scaled up or down to capture the corresponding epistemic uncertainty. We present extended CSEP tests in identifying regions that violate forecasts, to develop a
a novel approach in which several GMPEs are combined as weighted components preferred methodology for better understanding the strengths and weaknesses of
of a mixture model with the aim to infer a backbone model that is a better a particular forecast.
representative of the center of the ground-motion distribution. The combination
of models is inferred from observed ground-motion data of the target area. Retrospective Evaluation of Time-Dependent Earthquake Forecast Models
By combining models, information about ground-motion generation is partially during the 2010-12 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence
transferred from those regions for which the models have been developed to the WERNER, M. J., University of Bristol, Bristol, UK, max.werner@bristol.ac.uk;
region where the observations have been produced. The new approach is tested for GERSTENBERGER, M. C., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, m.
non-indigenous subduction zone GMPEs in Northern Chile. We are able to show gerstenberger@gns.cri.nz; LIUKIS, M., SCEC, USC, Los Angeles, CA, liukis@

on 09 October 2018
usc.edu; MARZOCCHI, W., INGV, Rome, Italy, warner.marzocchi@ingv.it; as very long observation time windows would be required (several hundreds of
RHOADES, D. A., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, D.Rhoades@ years at minimum). However, sampling in space can compensate short observation
gns.cri.nz; TARONI, M., INGV, Rome, Italy, matteo.taroni@ingv.it; time windows. In the present study, a methodology is proposed to compare the
ZECHAR, J. D., ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, jeremy.zechar@sed.ethz.ch; distribution of the expected number of sites with exceedance with the observed
CATTANIA, C., GFZ Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, camcat@gfz-potsdam.de; number, considering an acceleration threshold at a set of recording sites. The
CHRISTOPHERSEN, A., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, method is applied to France and Turkey. The French accelerometric database
A.Christophersen@gns.cri.nz; HAINZL, S., GFZ Potsdam, Potsdam, Berlin, (16 years duration) is used, as well as a synthetic dataset inferred from an
hainzl@gfz-potsdam.de; HELMSTETTER, A., ISTerre Grenoble, Grenoble, instrumental catalogue (duration 34 years) combined with a ground-motion
France, agnes.helmstetter@ujf-grenoble.fr; JIMENEZ, A., University of Ulster, prediction equation. Results can only be drawn for very low acceleration levels
Coleraine, UK, a.jimenez@ulster.ac.uk; STEACY, S., University of Adelaide, (below 40 cm.s-2) or short return period (smaller than 50 years). For such levels,
Adelaide, Australia, sandy teacy@adelaide.edu.au; JORDAN, T. H., SCEC, the two reference models for France (MEDD2002 and AFPS2006) seem to over-
USC, Los Angeles, CA, tjordan@usc.edu. estimate observations. For larger acceleration levels, there are few observations, if
any, and no conclusion can be drawn. In Turkey, the SHARE hazard estimates
The 2010 Mw7.1 Darfield, New Zealand, earthquake set off a complex, can be tested against ground-motion levels of interest in earthquake engineering.
devastating earthquake cascade that has increased the regional seismic hazard As the completeness issue is crucial, the recorded data at each station is analyzed
over the coming years and decades. The sequence provides a wealth of new to detect potential gaps in the recording. As most accelerometric stations are
data to study earthquake clustering and to evaluate the predictive skills of located on soil, accelerations at rock are estimated using a site-amplification model.
time-dependent forecast models. To this end, the Collaboratory for the Study Different minimum inter-site distances and station configurations are considered.
of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is conducting a retrospective evaluation of The observed numbers of sites with exceedance are well within the bounds of the
fourteen time-dependent forecast models that were developed by groups in New predicted distribution for accelerations between 103 and 397 cm.s-2. For higher
Zealand, Europe and the US. The statistical model group includes variants of the levels, no conclusion can be drawn.
Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model, non-parametric kernel smoothing
models and the Short-Term Earthquake Probabilities model. The physics-based Direct Verification of Seismic Hazard Maps
model group includes versions of the Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis MAK, S., GFZ German Research Centre, Potsdam, Germany, smak@gfz-
together with Dieterich’s rate-and-state formulation. Several new hybrid models potsdam.de; SCHORLEMMER, D., GFZ German Research Centre, Potsdam,
use aspects of the Coulomb model (e.g., the spatial pattern) within a statistical Germany, ds@gfz-potsdam.de
Omori-Utsu clustering formulation. We evaluated the forecasting prowess of
the models from the time just after the Darfield earthquake until February 2012 Verifying a nationwide seismic hazard assessment using data collected after the
using a variety of likelihood-based measures. Models generated forecasts of three assessment has been made (i.e., prospective data) is a direct consistency check
durations (1-year, 1-month and 1-day) to probe the relation between forecast of the assessment. We directly compared the predicted rate of ground motion
skill and horizon. Forecasts were updated immediately after the four strong exceedance by the four available versions of the USGS national seismic hazard
earthquakes of the sequence (incl. the February 2011 Christchurch quake). map (NSHMP, 1996, 2002, 2008, 2014) with the actual observed rate during
The best available data set of the sequence comprises 328 target earthquakes 2000-2013. The data were prospective to the two earlier versions of NSHMP.
greater than magnitude 3.95. We used these data as well as preliminary near- We used three sets of somewhat independent data, namely 1) the USGS "Did
real-time data as model input and tested whether the quality of forecasts would You Feel It?" (DYFI) intensity reports, 2) ShakeMap gridded ground motions, and
be affected systematically. In stark contrast to previous rigorous comparisons 3) instrumental ground motion records extracted from ShakeMap stations. The
between Coulomb stress models and statistical models, we present the first first two were not strictly observations but models calibrated by observations. The
quantitative evidence that physical and hybrid forecasting models can compete third was true observation but the amount of data is limited. Our results indicated
with and outperform statistical models at timescales of months to years. that for California, the predicted and observed hazards are very comparable.
Discrepancy lied generally on the safe side (i.e., predicted hazard not lower than the
Testing and Evaluation of Seismic Hazard Models for Long Return Periods observed one). The three sets of data gave consistent results, implying robustness.
with Fragile Geologic Features The consistency also encourages the use of DYFI and ShakeMap data for hazard
STIRLING, M., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, m.stirling@gns. verification in the central and eastern US (CEUS), where instrumental records
cri.nz; ROOD, D., Imperial College, London, UK, d.rood@imperial.ac.uk; are lacking. The result showed that the observed ground-motion exceedance was
BARRELL, D., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand; ZONDERVAN, A., larger than the predicted in CEUS, implying a possible underpredicted hazard. The
GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand primary value of this study is to demonstrate the usefulness of DYFI and ShakeMap
data, originally designed for community communication instead of scientific
The development of methods to test and evaluate seismic hazard models is a high- analysis, for the purpose of hazard verification. The large discrepancy between the
priority activity of seismic hazard research. Over the last two decades significant observed and predicted gorund-motion exceedance in CEUS implied that either
research has been undertaken to use the distribution and age of fragile geologic the ground motions were not described correctly by DYFI and ShakeMap for the
features (FGFs) to test and evaluate seismic hazard models for return periods of region, or the hazard was actually underestimated. Induced seismicity could be the
1000-100,000 years. We present the results of the very first application of FGFs to a cause of this underestimation.
major consultancy project in New Zealand. The Clyde Dam is the largest concrete
hydroelectric dam in New Zealand, and is currently the focus of a major seismic Metrics, Bayes, And BOGSAT: How To Assess And Revise Earthquake Hazard
hazard re-evaluation. The presence of FGFs in the surrounding schist peneplain Maps
landscape provides an opportunity to compare the constraints on ground motions STEIN, S., Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, seth@earth.
provided by the FGFs to the predicted ground motions of the safety evaluation northwestern.edu; BROOKS, E., Northwestern University, Evanston, IL,
earthquake (SEE) for the dam site. A total of six FGFs have been subjected to eddie@earth.northwestern.edu; SPENCER, B., Northwestern University,
cosmogenic (10Be) exposure age dating to determine the time elapsed since they Evanston, IL, bspencer@northwestern.edu
achieved their present fragile morphology, and field-based estimates of the degree
of fragility (threshold accelerations required to topple the FGFs) have also been Recent large earthquakes that did great damage in areas predicted to be relatively
made. Cosmogenic dating of toppled outcrops also provide a cross-validation to safe illustrate the need to assess how well earthquake hazard maps perform. At
the FGF ages, and a useful comparison to the local paleoseismic data. The FGF present, there is no agreed way of assessing how well a map performed and whether
data are finally used to choose the percentile level of ground motions for the SEE, one map performed better than another. The metric implicit in current maps, that
as opposed to the more arbitrary choice of mean or 84th percentile level usually during a time interval predicted ground motion will be exceeded only at a specific
made for dam sites. fraction of sites, is useful but permits maps to be nominally successful although they
significantly underpredict or overpredict shaking, or to be nominally unsuccessful
Testing Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Estimates Against Observations, but predict shaking well. We explore some metrics that better measure the effects
Application Examples of overprediction and underprediction and can be weighted to reflect the two
BEAUVAL, C., ISTerre, Grenoble, France, celine.beauval@ujf-grenoble.fr; differently and to reflect differences in populations and property at risk. Although
TASAN, H., ISTerre, Grenoble, France, hilal.tasan@ujf-grenoble.fr; no single metric fully characterizes map behavior, using several metrics can provide
HELMSTETTER, A., ISTerre, Grenoble, France, agnes.helmstetter@ujf- useful insight for comparing and improving maps. A related question is whether
grenoble.fr to regard larger-than-expected shaking as a low-probability event allowed by a
map, or to revise the map to show increased hazard. Whether and how much
Probabilistic seismic hazard models (PSHM) are used for quantifying the seismic to revise a map is complicated, because a new map that better describes the past
hazard at a site or a grid of sites. Testing PSHA at a given site is not possible may or may not better predict the future. The issue is like deciding after a coin

on 09 October 2018
has come up heads a number of times whether to continue assuming that the UCERF3: Lessons Learned
coin is fair and the run is a low-probability event, or to change to a model in PAGE, M. T., U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA, pagem@caltech.edu;
which the coin is assumed to be biased. This decision can be addressed using FIELD, E. H., U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO, field@usgs.gov; MILNER,
Bayes’ Rule, so that how much to change depends on one’s confidence in prior K. R., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA
model. Uncertainties are difficult to assess for hazard maps, which require
subjective assessments and choices among many poorly known or unknown Rather than the prescriptive approaches used to define rupture rates in hazard
parameters. However, even rough uncertainty measures for estimates/predictions models of the past, the 3rd Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast
from such models, sometimes termed BOGSATs (“Bunch Of Guys Sitting Around (UCERF3) uses an inversion method to derive rupture rates consistent with fault
Table”) by risk analysts, can give users useful information to make better decisions. slip rates, paleoseismic data, and regional seismicity rates. The inversion method
allows us to probe which areas of model parameterization and input data have
the most impact on the final model. We find that fault system connectivity in
Assessing the Long-term Performance Earthquake Hazard Maps
particular has a large impact on model rupture rates. This impact is not only local;
BROOKS, E., Northwestern University , Evanston, IL, eddie@earth.
in fact, state-wide magnitude distribution constraints can link event rates on a fault
northwestern.edu; STEIN, S., Northwestern University, Evanston, IL,
to connectivity assumptions made for faults elsewhere in the system. The inversion
seth@earth.northwestern.edu; SPENCER, B. D., Northwestern University,
is also quite sensitive to assumptions made about local magnitude distributions
Evanston, IL, bspencer@northwestern.edu
on faults. We were unable to construct a model that imposed a Gutenberg-
How good a baseball player was Babe Ruth? The answer depends on the metric Richter magnitude distribution on the major faults in California. This is because
used. In many seasons Ruth led the league in both home runs and in the number such a model cannot put enough moment on the faults to match the target
of times he struck out. By one metric he did very well, and by another, very slip rates without a) assuming significantly more fault connectivity and therefore
poorly. Similar issues arise in quantifying the performance of earthquake hazard raising the maximum magnitude, b) over-predicting historically observed seismicity
maps. We use several metrics to compare the predictions of both probabilistic and rates, and/or c) introducing significant b-value variation by lowering the b-value
deterministic hazard maps for Italy to a 2200-year-long historical intensity catalog. on major faults. Interestingly, UCERF3 is significantly less “characteristic” than
Both maps substantially overpredict the recorded shaking. The difference between UCERF2, both statewide (where rates are constrained to match the Gutenberg-
the two maps is smaller than either’s misfit to the data, and maps assuming uniform Richter distribution) and in smaller regions, due to the relaxation of segmentation
hazard for all of Italy performs better than either. The maps’ poor fits indicate and inclusion of multi-fault ruptures. Magnitude frequency distributions on faults
a problem with the data, maps, or both, but do not indicate which or why. It in UCERF3 turn out to have great importance in the algorithms used in the time-
is possible that some of the assumptions in the map making were biased toward dependent model currently under development, UCERF3-ETAS.
overpredictions. Alternatively, the catalog may underestimate the actual shaking,
perhaps due to difficulties with the historically inferred intensities, or suffer from a Observations on UCERF3 and Its Applications to Site-Specific PSHA
space-time sampling bias. BIASI, G. P., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, glenn@unr.edu
The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3;

Field et al., 2014, BSSA) represents a quantum advance in developing regional
earthquake rate forecasts. UCERF3 emphasized the use of objective data and
Rethinking PSHA methods in order to reduce reliance on hard-to-reproduce professional judgment
Oral Session · Tuesday · 2:15 PM · April 21 · Ballroom B and limited recent fault activity rates. A Monte Carlo-based global inversion is
Session Chairs: Matthew Gerstenberger, Mark Stirling and used to estimate state-wide earthquake rates. The smaller of the final UCERF3
rupture forecasts includes 253, 706 unique ruptures and long-term rates. Many
Mark Petersen potential users have found the rate forecast challenging to use because of its size
and complex geometry. We look briefly at how the model came to be so large,
Rethinking PSHA: the Next Steps With the New Zealand National Seismic and some of its unintuitive qualities. For example, because of how ruptures are
Hazard Model created, the number of ruptures input to the UCERF3 inversion increases with
GERSTENBERGER, M. C., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, magnitude. The size of the model also affects what qualities of the solution are
m.gerstenberger@gns.cri.nz; STIRLING, M. W., GNS Science, Lower well resolved and how resolution is achieved. Individual inversions for rupture
Hutt, New Zealand; MCVERRY, G., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand; rate fit the data using only 3-4.5% of ruptures; individual models are strongly
RHOADES, D. A., , Lower Hutt, New Zealand; HARTE, D., , Lower Hutt, New underdetermined. Among input ruptures that pass basic screening criteria, relative
Zealand; VAN DISSEN, R., , Lower Hutt, New Zealand; NICOL, A., University complexity is not considered. That is, ruptures with steps and bends in them are as
of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand; CHRISTOPHERSEN, A., , Lower likely at the outset as simple straight ruptures. A probability function we developed
Hutt, New Zealand; FRY, B., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand; ZHAO, based on rupture complexity reasonably predicts inversion rupture probabilities,
J., Southwest Jiatong University, Chengu, China suggesting that efficiencies for model inversion and convergence are possible. We
conclude with examples of how we have adapted UCERF3 results in support of
Since the early 1980s seismic hazard assessment in New Zealand has been based site-specific fault source characterization. Fault section participation rates provided
on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). The most recent version of with UCERF3 actually vary significantly along strike, making them of limited
the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model, a PSHA model, was published use for site-specific studies. An alternative subsection participation view has been
by Stirling et al, in 2012. This model follows standard PSHA principals and useful both for evaluating proximal site-specific hazard and to realize efficiencies in
combines a nation-wide model of active faults with a gridded point-source model calculating regional seismic source hazard.
based on the earthquake catalogue since 1840. These models are coupled with the
ground-motion prediction equation of McVerry et al (2006). Additionally, we have Is There Evidence for the Basic Assumption for the Standard Probabilistic
developed a time-dependent clustering-based PSHA model for the Canterbury Seismic Hazard Assessment?
region (Gerstenberger et al, 2014) in response to the Canterbury earthquake WYSS, M., International Centre for Earth Simulation, Geneva, GE, Switzerland,
sequence. We are now in the process of revising that national model. In this max@maxwyss.ch
process we are investigating several of the fundamental assumptions in traditional
PSHA and in how we modelled hazard in the past. For this project, we have three The basic assumption for the standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment
main focuses: 1) how do we design an optimal combination of multiple sources of (PSHA) is that the occurrence rate of large earthquakes can be estimated by
information to produce the best forecast of earthquake rates in the next 50 years: extrapolating from small earthquakes. In most regions, the earthquake catalog is
can we improve upon a simple hybrid of fault sources and background sources, too short for containing the maximum credible earthquake (MCE). Therefore,
and can we better handle the uncertainties in the data and models (e.g., fault the distribution of observed small earthquakes, LogN = a – bM (FMD), is used
segmentation, frequency-magnitude distributions, time-dependence & clustering, to extrapolate the probability of the MCE. This assumption means that during
low strain-rate areas, and subduction zone modelling)? 2) developing revised and the inter-event time the number of small earthquakes must accumulate as defined
new ground-motion predictions models including better capturing of epistemic by the above equation when N=1 for the MCE. For M(MCE)=8 and with
uncertainty – a key focus in this work is developing a new strong ground motion b=1 the fault segment rupturing in an M8 earthquake must produce 100,000
catalogue for model development; and 3) how can we best quantify if changes we M3 earthquakes. Although the data used are mostly from California, I do not
have made in our modelling are truly improvements? Throughout this process we comment on seismic hazard calculations in California, where strain accumulation
are working toward incorporating numerical modelling results from physics based rates are used. I am addressing the worldwide method used for critical facilities
synthetic seismicity and ground-motion models. and constructing the GSHAP map. I have tested the assumption for the following

on 09 October 2018
7 fault segments for which the recurrence interval is known from observation or the initial workshop of the Project ’17 planning committee, potentially eliciting
from repeats or paleo-seismology: Fort Tejon San Andreas Fault 1858, Denali Fault new thoughts on PSHA modeling and/or its use in ground motion mapping for
2002, Hayward Fault 1868, Parkfield 1966 and 2004 earthquakes, the Elsinore, building codes.
the San Jacinto and the Coachella Fault. The return periods calculated from the
declustered seismicity using the earthquakes within 5 km (California) and 10 km
(Alaska) from the fault traces, yield return periods of 62,000, 21,000, 870, 80, Event Characterization for Risk Models: from Segment-Centered to a
16,000, 950 and 8,000 years for the respective test cases. The discrepancy factors Regional Perspective. The Case of NZEQ.
between the estimates based on geological observations and the PSHA assumption FITZENZ, D. D., RMS, Newark, CA, delphine.fitzenz@rms.com; NYST, M.,
are 410, 37, 5.1, 3.3, 28, 4.4 and 45 (median 28) in the aforementioned cases, RMS, Newark, CA, marleen.nyst@rms.com
respectively. To my knowledge, there is no observational or theoretical evidence Recent years have seen a lot of debate on the characteristic earthquake hypothesis
for the assumption tested. In the face of these facts, the standard PSHA method on strictly segmented faults. Likewise, renewal models were put into question.
needs re-evaluation.
Experiments have been carried out to characterize seismic activity at the regional
scale using a purely unsegmented approach (e.g., UCERF3). Constraints for
Seismic Efficiency: Mechanisms and Global Perspectives Gutenberg-Richter (GR) frequency-magnitude relationships for individual faults
LAFORGE, R., Fugro Consultants, Inc., Lakewood, CO, r.laforge@fugro.com; were abandoned and only regional GR were enforced, allowing a characteristic
OSTENAA, D., Fugro Consultants, Inc., Lakewood, CO, d.ostenaa@ event-type relationship for individual faults. However the criteria used to
fugro.com; ADDO, K., BC Hydro, Burnaby, BC, Canada, kofi.addo@ unsegment the event set are still to be refined to comply with geologic observations.
bchydro.com; LAWRENCE, M., BC Hydro, Burnaby, BC, Canada, Also the correlation of event occurrences between nearby faults is ignored. In the
martin.lawrence@bchydro.com update to our New Zealand (NZ) risk model, we opted for 1) maintaining a mostly
segmented model to take full advantage of the detailed characterization of past
As part of the BC Hydro SSHAC Level 3 seismic source characterization, the events, 2) coupled with a relaxed assumption regarding recurrence models, in which
viability of using GPS observations of horizontal crustal strain rates to constrain we find the best combination of known functional forms that fit the data. This
or possibly determine seismicity rates was investigated. Although the use of GPS allows to have a significant component of short-term recurrence (Poisson-like or
data to infer or constrain earthquake occurrence rates was ultimately not adopted, even more clustered) as well as a main renewal-type optimum for time to failure. 3)
the investigation resulted in two useful outcomes: a compilation of global studies Those models were fitted to individual faults, but in densely faulted regions with
in which crustal strain rates were compared to seismicity rates, and a summary mature faults the regional pattern of occurrence of events was preserved. This is
of physical theories for aseismic deformation. Using the Kostrov (1974) formula particularly important since our model will be simulation-based. 4) Finally, we used
relating strain rate to seismic moment rate (and then to seismicity rate), direct the openSHA tool designed to create the event set in UCERF3, together with local
comparisons can be made. The ratio of seismic moment rate from seismicity expert knowledge on the various fault systems, to introduce a meaningful but in no
to that from crustal strain is termed seismic efficiency. Physical mechanisms way exhaustive set of multiple segment ruptures. Those rare large events are critical
that allow elastic strain to be released aseismically include afterslip, poro-elastic for risk assessment. The boolean response to the distance between segments was
rebound, and visco-elastic deformation (which are three types of post-seismic relaxed since long jumping distances were observed in NZ, the cumulative azimuth
deformation, or PSD), fault creep, metamorphic processes, post-glacial rebound, change was reduced and some structural barriers such as the Cook Strait Canyon
magma movement, water table changes, and ductile behavior of salt deposits. PSD were deemed more important than the jumping distance.
is known to “contaminate” non-secular crustal strain signals, and its effect scales
with magnitude, time and distance for large events. A literature search yielded
about 25 regional studies worldwide in which geodetic data was compared to Canada’s 5th Generation Seismic Hazard Model for the 2015 National Building
seismicity rates, and in some cases paleoseismic rates. Seismic efficiencies from these Code of Canada
studies were tabulated, and showed a wide range of values. Statistical fits to the data ALLEN, T. I., Natural Resources Canada, Sidney, BC, Canada,
yielded a range of 0.15 to 1.0 with a peak at 0.63 for a triangular distribution, and a tallen@nrcan.gc.ca; ADAMS, J., Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON,
similar range with a peak at 0.68 for a logistic distribution. Canada, jadams@nrcan.gc.ca; HALCHUK, S., Natural Resources Canada,
Ottawa, ON, Canada, shalchuk@nrcan.gc.ca; ROGERS, G. C.,Natural
Resources Canada, Sidney, BC, Canada, grogers@nrcan.gc.ca
Project ’17: A Collaboration of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
(PSHA) Modelers and Users to Develop Ground Motion Maps for the 2024 Canada’s 5th Generation seismic hazard model has been developed to generate
International Building Code seismic design values for the 2015 National Building Code of Canada
LUCO, N., United States Geological Survey, Golden, CO, nluco@usgs.gov; (NBCC2015). The model updates the earthquake catalog, consistently expresses
TONG, M., Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, DC, earthquake magnitudes in terms of moment magnitude, revises earthquake source
Mai.Tong@fema.dhs.gov; HAMBURGER, R., Simpson Gumpertz & Heger, San zones, and includes probabilistic treatment of Cascadia and other fault sources,
Francisco, CA, ROHamburger@sgh.com; SCHNEIDER, P., National Institute of so as to estimate mean ground shaking at the 2it takes advantage of newer
Building Sciences, Washington, DC, pschneider@nibs.org; REZAEIAN, S., US knowledge and replaces the 4th Generation ‘robust’ combination of alternative
Geological Survey, Golden, CO, srezaeian@usgs.gov models used for NBCC2010 by a fully probabilistic model. The ground-motion
models (Atkinson andAdams, 2013, Can. J.Civil Eng.) use a “reference suite”
Based on the 2014 National Seismic Hazard model (NSHM) developed by approach and represent a major advance over those used for the 4th Generation
United States Geological Survey (USGS), the Building Seismic Safety Council model. Seismic design values (mean-hazard on Soil Class C at VS30=450 m/s)
(BSSC) Provisions Update Committee, with funding from the Federal Emergency for PGA, PGV and for Sa(T) for T = 0.2, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, and 10.0 s will be
Management Agency (FEMA), recently developed updated ground motion maps used in NBCC2015. The NBCC2015 specifies new perioddependent soil factors
for the 2015 NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions for New Buildings and F(T) (replacing amplification factors Fa and Fv) related to a region-dependent
Other Structures. The updated maps are currently being considered for the 2016 PGA on reference rock. For locations in western Canada, the seismic hazard
American Society of Civil Engineers 7 Standard ; if adopted, they will then be at long periods has increased significantly for areas affected by the probabilistic
considered for the 2018 International Building Code (IBC) and other building Cascadia interface. In Haida Gwaii and the Yukon, the explicit inclusion of fault
code reference documents, just as previous versions of the maps have been. Planning sources has also affected the estimated hazard. At locations in eastern Canada,
for the development of maps that could be adopted into the 2024 IBC has already the estimated seismic hazard at long periods has generally increased while it has
begun, starting with a small workshop in February of 2015 of structural engineers decreased at short periodsŮin some places significantly. The NBCC2015 hazard
organized by the BSSC/FEMA and PSHA modelers from the USGS. The objective model is generally comparable to the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard
of the workshop is to identify issues and topics for potential proposals to change Maps (U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2014–1091) at border locations.
various aspects of the existing ground motion maps. Example topics include (i) Significant differences between the hazard estimates can often be explained in
ground motions for response spectral acceleration periods longer than 1.0 sec, terms of model implementation or judgement on the model inputs, reflecting a
and for relatively soft soils, with due consideration of sedimentary basin effects; different interpretation of the hazard.
(ii) utilization of physics-based simulations of ground motions; (iii) deterministic
ground motions; and (iv) uncertainties and update-to-update changes in the
mapped ground motions. Collectively, the anticipated efforts are being referred The Roadmap for Updating the Italian Seismic Hazard Model
to as Project ’17, as a sequel to Project ’97, which established the procedure for MELETTI, C., INGV, Pisa, Italy, carlo.meletti@ingv.it; MARZOCCHI, W.,
basing the ground motion maps in building codes directly on the USGS NSHM, INGV, Rome, Italy, warner.marzocchi@ingv.it; D’AMICO, V., INGV,
and to Project ’07, which reassessed the original procedure and introduced the Pisa, Italy, vera.damico@ingv.it; FAENZA, L., INGV, Bologna, Italy,
current “risk-targeted” maps. In this presentation, we summarize the outcomes of licia.faenza@ingv.it; MARTINELLI, F., INGV, Pisa, Italy, francesco.

on 09 October 2018
martinelli@ingv.it; ROSELLI, P., INGV, Rome, Italy, pamela.roselli@ingv.it; Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Novosibirsk, Russia,
TARONI, M., INGV, Rome, Italy, matteo.taroni@ingv.it; VISINI, F., INGV, kgv@sscc.nsc.ru; TCHEVERDA, V., Institute of Petroleum Geology and
L’Aquila, Italy, francesco.visini@ingv.it Geophysics, Novosibirsk, Russia, cheverdava@ipgg.sbras.ru; VISHNEVSKY,
D., Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics, Novosibirsk, Russia,
The Italian reference seismic hazard model (zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it) was released vishnevskydm@ipgg.sbras.ru
in 2004, but adopted for seismic zones definition in 2006 and for building code
only in 2009. The delay between the release of the model and its acknowledgment Numerical simulation of seismic wave propagation in realistic 3D isotropic ideal-
in the building code is the reason for the missing update of PSHA map, initially elastic media has become a common tool in seismic prospecting and monitoring
expected every 5 years. Now, the Seismic Hazard Center (Centro Pericolosità and seismology. Typically these simulations are performed by means of finite
Sismica – CPS) of INGV is in charge of coordinating the national community differences, as this method combines high efficiency with suitable accuracy, and,
with the aim of elaborating a new reference seismic hazard model, mainly finalized in particular, a standard staggered grid scheme (SSGS) is used. However, if a
to the update of seismic code. We are now defining the roadmap that will allow model is complicated by anisotropic and viscoelastic intrusions or small-scale
within 2 years the release of a significantly renewed model, not only in terms of heterogeneities, more computationally intense approaches are needed. To take
input elements, but also or mainly in terms of strategies to be followed in order to into account seismic attenuation, a generalized standard lines solid model is used,
obtain a shared and largely accepted PSHA. After 10 years, all the input elements where additional memory variables are introduced. As a result, the computational
are available in new versions: a new earthquake catalogue, covering the time period intensity of the algorithm doubles in comparison with an ideal-elastic medium. If
1000-2014, including most of the larger foreshocks and aftershocks; a significantly anisotropy presents in a model then advanced finite difference schemes such as
improved fault database; a new seismogenic zonation; an alternative seismic source Lebedev scheme or a rotated staggered grid scheme are needed. In this case, the
model based on geodetic information; finally, many new GMPEs are available. A number of variables per grid cell and the number of floating point operations is four
particular attention will be devoted to how assemble all this information into a times higher than those for SSGS used for isotropic elastic media. The presence of
single model that should be regarded as a consensus model of a wide community. small-scale heterogeneities brings about the necessity of using small enough grid
Some issues are of particular importance: do we have to use a declustered catalog, or steps to match the scale, which may dramatically increase the size of the problem.
do we have to adjust the seismicity rates for declustering? Is the logic tree a sound At the same time, the formations with the named properties are typically small, up
probabilistic tool to describe the epistemic uncertainty, or do we need to explore to 25 percent of the model, due to the geological conditions under which they were
different strategies, such as ensemble modeling? How do we have to define the formed. As a result it is reasonable to use the computationally intense approaches
weight of each single model, on the basis of quantitative performances or through locally and to apply the efficient SSGS elsewhere in the model. Note that the main
expert judgment? Which is the best strategy to test the final model? We think that numerical method used for all situations is explicit in time finite differences. Thus,
sharing opinions and discussing these and other similar topics is essential to achieve it can be efficiently parallelized by domain decomposition techniques. On the other
a consensus on best practices. hand, peculiarities of the coupling and imbalance in computational work loads
leads to strong inhomogeneity; thus requires a detailed study of the balancing and
Operational Earthquake Forecasting in California: a Prototype System scaling of the parallel algorithm.
Combining Ucerf3 and Cybershake
MILNER, K. R., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, kmilner@ Coupled Finite Element Simulation of Earthquakes and Tsunami Inception: A
usc.edu; JORDAN, T. H., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA; Case Study of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake and Tsunami
The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities and The CyberShake KARAOGLU, H., Insitut de Physique du Globe de Paris , Paris, France,
Collaboration haydarkaraoglu@gmail.com; BIELAK, J., Carnegie Mellon University,
Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative Pittsburgh, PA, jbielak@cmu.edu
information about time-dependent earthquake probabilities to help communities
We model the coupled nature of earthquakes and the resultant tsunamis through a
prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform
case study of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event. We achieve this by means of simulations
the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate
carried out using Hercules–the parallel octree-based finite element earthquake
seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from
simulator developed by the Quake Group at Carnegie Mellon University (Tu et al.,
days to decades. To attain this goal, OEF must provide a complete description
2006). As a recent improvement to Hercules, we have incorporated acoustic wave
of the seismic hazard—ground motion exceedance probabilities as well as short-
propagation in the ocean into our simulations to capture the generation and the
term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long-term forecasts of probabilistic
off-shore propagation of tsunami waves. Suboceanic earthquakes and the tsunamis
seismic hazard analysis. We have combined the Third Uniform California
triggered by seismic faulting are naturally coupled events. Yet, traditionally they
Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) of the Working Group on California
have been studied separately. Some recent studies have addressed the coupled
Earthquake Probabilities (Field et al., 2014) with the CyberShake ground-motion
nature of these two events mostly through weakly-coupled simulations in which
model of the Southern California Earthquake Center (Graves et al., 2011) into
the feedback from the ocean waves to the solid domain were ignored. Such feedback
a prototype OEF system for generating time-dependent hazard maps. UCERF3
can be significant, especially for the slow rupture events of which the 2011 Tohoku-
represents future earthquake activity in terms of fault-rupture probabilities,
Oki earthquake is a major example. Here, we focus primarily on the generation
incorporating both Reid-type renewal models and Omori-type clustering models.
and off-shore propagation of the tsunami waves and analyze the seismic velocity
The current CyberShake model comprises approximately 415,000 earthquake
model, which is a combination of the two publicly available seismic velocity models
rupture variations to represent the conditional probability of future shaking
of Japan.
at 285 geographic sites in the Los Angeles region (˜236 million horizontal-
component seismograms). This combination provides significant probability gains
relative to OEF models based on empirical ground-motion prediction equations A New Discrete Representation of Heterogeneous Medium for the Finite-
(GMPEs), primarily because the physics-based CyberShake simulations account difference Modeling of Seismic Wave Propagation and Earthquake Motion
for the rupture directivity, basin effects, and directivity-basin coupling that are not KRISTEK, J., Comenius University Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia,
represented by the GMPEs. kristek@fmph.uniba.sk; MOCZO, P., Comenius University Bratislava,
Bratislava, Slovakia, moczo@fmph.uniba.sk; CHALJUB, E., ISTerre, Grenoble,
France, Emmanuel.Chaljub@ujf-grenoble.fr; DE MARTIN, F., BRGM, Orleans,
France, F.DeMartin@brgm.fr; KRISTEKOVA, M., Slovak Academy of Sciences,
Numerical Modeling of Earthquake Ground Motion, Bratislava, Slovakia, kristekova@savba.sk; GALIS, M., KAUST, Thuwal, Saudi
Rupture Dynamics and Seismic Wave Propagation Arabia, Martin.Galis@kaust.edu.sa
Oral Session · Tuesday · 8:30 AM · 21 April · Ballroom C Sufficiently realistic models are necessary for numerical modeling of seismic wave
Session Chairs: Peter Moczo, Steven Day and Emmanuel propagation and prediction of earthquake motion. This is especially important
Chaljub in local surface sedimentary structures capable to produce anomalous earthquake
ground motion. It is also obvious that the realistic physical model has to be
sufficiently accurately represented by discrete grid models in the (spatial) domain
Hybrid Algorithm for Numerical Simulation of Seismic Wave Propagation in numerical methods such as finite-difference (FD) methods. Recent international
Complex Models: Anisotropy, Attenuation, Small-Scale Heterogeneities comparative exercises for a typical deep Alpine Grenoble valley, France, (ESG
KOSTIN, V., Intel, Novosibirsk, Russia, victor.i.kostin@intel.com; LISITSA, 2006) and a shallow sedimentary Mygdonian basin, Greece, (E2VP - Euroseistest
V., Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics, Novosibirsk, Russia, Verification and Validation Project 2008-2012) indicated that the existing FD
lisitsavv@ipgg.sbras.ru; RESHETOVA, G., Institute of Computational schemes do not reach sufficient accuracy if surface waves are locally induced and

on 09 October 2018
propagate along an interface with strong velocity contrast. Recent FD schemes numerical artifacts. Our results thus considerably help to efficiently initiate
represent a large variety of approaches with considerable differences in accuracy dynamic ruptures with minimal effects on the subsequent spontaneous rupture
and computational efficiency in realistic models with large velocity contrast propagation.
and complex geometry of material interfaces. This is mainly due to a level of
(in)consistency of the various discrete representations of the material interfaces
with the boundary conditions at the interfaces. The E2VP experience led us to Nonlinear Simulations of Spontaneous Rupture on the Southern San Andreas
improve the existing discrete representation of strong material heterogeneity. We Fault
ROTEN, D., San Diego Supercomputer Center, La Jolla, CA, droten@sdsc.edu;
have developed a new discrete representation which is even more accurate than that
presented by Moczo et al. (2002) while still consistent with the spatial distribution CUI, Y., San Diego Supercomputer Center, La Jolla, CA, yfcui@sdsc.edu;
of particle-velocity and stress-tensor components in the FD staggered-grid schemes. OLSEN, K. B., San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, kbolsen@
mail.sdsu.edu; DAY, S. M., San Diego State University, San Diego, CA,
We briefly present theoretical principles of the new discrete representation and
demonstrate its superior accuracy using stringent numerical tests against exact and sday@mail.sdsu.edu
reliable independent solutions. Physics-based numerical simulations of spontaneous rupture and wave propagation
provide a means to assess near-source ground motions resulting from large, rare
3D Simulations of M9 Cascadia Earthquakes: Sedimentary-Basin earthquakes, which are not sufficiently represented in observed data. Such models
Amplification and Ground-Motion Variability should account for plastic yielding to capture energy loss in the fault damage zone
FRANKEL, A. D., U.S. Geological Survey, Seattle, WA, afrankel@usgs.gov; and nonlinear behavior of shallow sedimentary deposits. Previous simulations of
STEPHENSON, W. J., U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO, wstephens@usgs.gov the M 7.8 ShakeOut earthquake scenario, performed using a kinematic source
description, have shown that such nonlinear material behavior may reduce ground
We have conducted finite-difference simulations of ground motions for M9 motion levels in the Los Angeles basin (LAB) by up to 30 - 70% with respect
earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone using a 3D model of the region to linear simulations. Here, we perform simulations of spontaneous rupture on
and a compound rupture model. The finite-difference synthetics are accurate up a planar, vertical fault roughly following the surface trace of the southern San
to 1 Hz and are combined with high-frequency stochastic synthetics to produce Andreas fault (SAF) between Indio and Lake Hughes. Drucker-Prager plasticity
broadband synthetic seismograms from 0-10 Hz. The compound rupture model is computed using the AWP-ODC finite difference code, which has been verified
consists of M8 high stress-drop sub-events superimposed on a background slip against six other methods in the framework of the SCEC/USGS spontaneous
distribution that has rise times of 5-20 s. It has been validated by modeling strong- rupture code verification project. Our dynamic rupture models represent M 7.8
motion records of the M9.0 Tohoku, Japan and M8.8 Maule, Chile earthquakes. events with a high stress drop (˜8 MPa), rupturing the southern SAF from SE
This compound rupture model is necessary to match the observed response spectral to NW similar to ShakeOut. The simulations include frequencies up to 1 Hz,
accelerations of the Tohoku and Maule earthquakes for frequencies up to 10 Hz. with a minimum shear-wave velocity of 500 m/s. We experiment with three
We have run Cascadia simulations for a variety of slip distributions, hypocenters, different cohesions models covering a broad range of possible rock strengths, basing
and sub-event locations. The broadband synthetics exhibit long durations of our choices on petroleum industry equations and published laboratory results. If
shaking and substantial peak accelerations at coastal sites. A key finding from sedimentary and crustals rocks are assumed to be nearly cohesionless, plasticity in
the simulations is the large amplification of low-frequency (< 1 Hz) ground the fault zone and in shallow deposits reduces LAB peak ground motion levels by
motions in the Seattle and Tacoma sedimentary basins. Spectral response values up to 50% (from 2.5 to less than 1.5 m/s). On the other hand, LAB ground motions
of the synthetics for non-basin sites are generally similar to published, empirical are only reduced marginally (<15%) and still exceeding 2 m/s for rock cohesions
ground-motion prediction equations. Large amplifications of a factor of about 4 above 10 MPa. These results suggest that ground motions are more sensitive to
found in the simulations for basin sites are a combination of amplification from the strength of crustal and sedimentary rocks than indicated by previous kinematic
the broader Puget Lowland and from the deep basins. The basin amplification simulations.
appears to be independent of the rupture history. However, large variations in
low-frequency spectral accelerations are caused by changes in hypocenter. When
rupture propagates up-dip away from Seattle, low-frequency ground motions in From Stiffness to Strength in Large-Scale Ground Deformation Forecasting
the Seattle basin are substantially reduced. Higher frequency ground motions SHI, J., Caltech, Pasadena, CA, jian.shi@caltech.edu; ASIMAKI, D., Caltech,
are largely controlled by the proximity to the M8 sub-events and the rupture Pasadena, CA, domniki@caltech.edu
directivity.
Earthquake simulations are nowadays producing ground motion time-series
intended for engineering design applications. Of particular significance to
Optimal Initiation of Dynamic Ruptures in Numerical Simulations engineers are simulations of near-field motions and large magnitude events, for
GALIS, M., King Abdullah University, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia, martin.galis@ which observations are scarce. Large ground deformations and ground failure
kaust.edu.sa; PELTIES, C., LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; KRISTEK, J., frequently manifest during these events and control the infrastructure damage,
Comenius University Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia, kristek@fmph.uniba.sk; particularly of distributed systems like pipelines and lifelines. Thus, site response
MOCZO, P., Comenius University Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia, moczo@ models implemented in ground motion simulations should have the capabilities to
fmph.uniba.sk; AMPUERO, J. P., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, predict realistic ground deformations. In this talk, we present a new constitutive
CA, ampuero@gps.caltech.edu; MAI, P. M., King Abdullah University, Thuwal, model that we have developed to bridge the gap between elastic-perfectly plastic
Saudi Arabia, martin.mai@kaust.edu.sa; DURU, K., Stanford University, solid mechanics models formulated on the basis of soil strength (e.g. Drucker-
Stanford, CA Prager) that are frequently used in seismology, and geotechnical engineering models
for cyclic soil response, formulated on the basis of field and laboratory data in
We present optimal parameters of the overstressed asperity for efficient initiation the low and medium strain range (i.e. stiffness). We implement the model in
of dynamic ruptures in numerical simulations. The overstressed asperity is
a finite difference one-dimensional site response code, and compare predictions
an artificial procedure often applied to initiate a rupture under linear slip- to observations at 30 downhole stations of the Japanese network KIK-Net that
weakening friction. The physical properties of the asperity, namely its shape, have recorded several strong events, including the 2011 Tohoku earthquake.
size and overstress, may have significant impact on the resulting dynamic We quantify the differences of ground surface predictions and observations
rupture propagation. We performed an extensive parameter study using numerical in terms of both seismological and engineering intensity measures, including bias
simulations of 3D dynamic rupture propagation assuming a planar fault. We ratios of peak ground response and visual comparisons of elastic spectra, and
determined the critical size and overstress of square, circular and elliptical initiation inelastic to elastic deformation ratio for multiple ductility ratios. We observe that
zones as a function of background stress. For a fixed overstress, we found that
PGV/Vs,30 — as measure of strain— is a better predictor of site nonlinearity
the area of the initiation zone is more important for the nucleation process than PGA, and discuss the implications of our findings on the parameterization of
than its shape. Having compared our numerical results with published theoretical nonlinear amplification factors in GMPEs, and on the extensive use of equivalent
estimates, we have found that the estimates by Uenishi & Rice (2004) are linear analyses in seismic hazard assessment and damage detection procedures on
applicable to configurations with high background stress and small overstress.
regional scales.
We therefore derived new equations for estimating the initiation zone size and
overstress in environments with low background stress. We also analyze numerical
artifacts caused by using asperity with super-critical size and/or overstress. Surface-Wave Propagation Modes in the Valley of Mexico: Insights from
The analysis revealed that super-critical parameters lead to shorter duration of Realistic 3D Earthquake Simulations
initiation but can also lead to strong numerical artifacts (for example, artificial SANABRIA, J. D., Universidad Industrial de Santander, Bucaramanga, Colombia,
super-shear transition). Therefore, we provide guidelines for choosing optimal jsanabri@uis.edu.co; CRUZ-ATIENZA, V. M., Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM,
asperity parameters that lead to significantly shorter initiation with minimized Mexico City, Mexico, cruz@geofisica.unam.mx; TAGO, J., Facultad de

on 09 October 2018
Ingenieria, UNAM, Mexico City, Mexico; CHALJUB, E., Institut des Sciences influence nonlinear building responses. A similar gauntlet by Rezaeian et al (2014)
de la Terre, Grenoble, France; VIRIEUX, J., Institut des Sciences de la Terre, proposes a set of validation metrics to characterize the evolution of intensity and
Grenoble, France frequency content of ground motion waveforms that influence most structural
responses and provide easily interpretable feedback to seismologists for updating
By means of a parallel hp-adaptive discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method (Etienne their simulation models. Finally, a third gauntlet under development by Stewart &
et al., 2010; Tago et al., 2012) we simulate viscoelastic wave propagation in Afshari (2014) is focused on GMSV for duration-sensitive geotechnical systems,
a 3D basin model of the Valley of Mexico. The model includes both the e.g. slope displacements and soil liquefaction, with an empirical model of duration
surface topography (with elevation differences of ˜3,000 m) and the intricate for this purpose.
3D geometry of the sedimentary layers with minimum wave speeds of 50 m/s.
The medium is discretized with a tetrahedral mesh where the elements size
and interpolation orders are locally adapted to the elastic properties (i.e., to
the minimum wavelength) so that the same numerical accuracy is guaranteed
everywhere (hp-adaptivity). A large set of earthquake simulations for local events Using Dense Seismic Array to Image the Subsurface and
show that: (1) sustained surface-wave trains are generated in the basin edges; Monitor Earthquake Activity
(2) first-overtone modes dominate their propagation in shallow regions of the
basin (i.e. less than ˜200 m thick, where most damages concentrated for past
Oral Session · Tuesday · 2:15 PM · 21 April · Ballroom C
earthquakes); and (3) the large intrinsic attenuation of the uppermost layers Session Chairs: Robert Clayton and Brandon Schmandt
(compressible clays with ˜50 m thick) is responsible for this propagation regime.
Our results are in accordance with borehole seismological observations and provide
physical insights to better understand the long duration of ground motions well Wave Gradiometry and its Link with Helmholtz Tomography Applied to
documented in the Valley of Mexico. USArray
LIU, Y., Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, johnny.lyy@gmail.com;
Evaluation of Attenuation Models (Q-Vs Relationships) used in Physics- HOLT, W. E., Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, william.holt@
Based Ground-Motion Earthquake Simulation stonybrook.edu
KHOSHNEVIS, N., The University of Memphis, Memphis, TN,
Wave gradiometry is a new technique utilizing the shape of seismic wavefield
nkhshnvs@memphis.edu; TABORDA, R., The University of Memphis,
captured by USArray transportable stations to determine fundamental wave
Memphis, TN, rtbrdros@memphis.edu
propagation characteristics. The amplitude, its time derivative and spatial gradient
The accurate solution of wave propagation problems requires the appropriate are linearly linked by two unknown coefficients. Spatial gradients are estimated
representation of energy losses due to internal friction in geomaterials. These losses from shifted displacement fields using bi-cubic spline interpretation [Beavan and
are important because their mischaracterization may lead to the over- or under- Haines, 2001]. With least square inversion, the coefficients are solved iteratively at
estimation of the amplification and duration of seismic waves in regions with each seismic station, which are then inverted for wave phase velocity, back azimuth,
high dissipative properties. Recent studies show that synthetics from physics-based radiation pattern and geometrical spreading [Langston, 2007]. However, the phase
simulations tend to attenuate with distance at different rates than observations, velocity here, depends not only on the medium, but also on the local geometry
thus suggesting that current approaches to modeling attenuation need to be revised. of the wavefield, which is referred as dynamical phase velocity. In order to find
In physic-based ground-motion simulation, the attenuation of seismic waves is the structural phase velocity determined by the properties of the medium only,
typically treated by means of viscoelastic models. Internally, the properties used an amplitude correction, involving the first and second derivatives of logarithmic
for these models are set based on the material’s quality factor Q. The value amplitude, is required [Wielandt, 1993]. We show that the two coefficients that
of Q for shear waves, Qs, for instance, is usually defined based on rules that we are solving for, actually correspond to the gradient of logarithmic amplitude
depend on the value of the shear wave velocity, Vs. Typical Qs-Vs relationships and the gradient of phase, respectively. Treating their vector fields in the same
are (piecewise) linear or polynomial functions. Several Qs-Vs relationships exist way that we treat displacement fields, the Laplacian of logarithmic amplitude
in the literature. There is, however, no consensus about the most appropriate and Laplacian of phase can be determined. This enables us to estimate pseudo-
one. In addition, other studies suggest that these relationships vary for P waves, structural phase velocities through solutions to the Helmholtz equation, assuming
and are dependent of depth. We perform a parametric study on different Qs- that the structure is smoothly inhomogeneous compared to the heterogeneity of
Vs relationships used in simulation. In this first stage, we limit our study to low the wavefield [Wielandt, 1993]. Furthermore, the density can be determined by
frequencies (0–1 Hz), to quantify the effect of different models independently of integrating in the direction of wave propagation, using also the first and second
higher frequencies, where attenuation becomes frequency dependent. We test the derivatives of the phase. Benchmarking experiments with two earthquakes from
different relationships through validation of synthetics with data from historical Lin and Ritzwoller [2011] are being conducted to test the algorithm stability. Our
events, and through comparison of intensity measures with empirical attenuation modification of the wave gradiometry method has been employed to more than
relationships (GMPEs). We present results from these comparisons and make 130 events to obtain structural parameters across the whole U.S.
suggestions about the use of existing Q-Vs rules, and provide parameters for the
relationships that best fit the data and empirical references. Comparison of the Ray Ansatz and Full Wave Field Solution for Wave
Gradiometry in the SAFOD Borehole
Progress of the Southern California Earthquake Center Technical Activity LANGSTON, C. A., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, clangstn@
Group on Ground Motion Simulation Validation memphis.edu; AYELE, M., , Houston, TX, mmayele03@gmail.com
REZAEIAN, S., USGS, Golden, CO, srezaeian@usgs.gov; LUCO, N., USGS,
Golden, CO, nluco@usgs.gov Wave gradiometry (WG) is generally applied using the ray ansatz where slowness
and geometrical spreading change (G’/G) is determined from the spatial gradient
Owing to the development of numerical source-excitation and wave-propagation of the wave field. We estimate WG parameters using data from a 2005 deployment
codes, deterministic and stochastic simulation methods now offer increasingly of a dense accelerometer array within the SAFOD borehole at three depths. Sensor
realistic models of strong ground motions. Nevertheless, to gain confidence for use spacing for each 80-element deployment is 15m and we examine wave propagation
in engineering applications, simulations must first be statistically validated against in the 10-30 Hz frequency band. Direct P waves from three checkshot explosions
available data. The development and implementation of validation methodologies at the surface are used to estimate P wave velocity and G’/G as a function of depth
requires collaboration between ground motion modelers and engineering users. in the borehole. Vertical displacement gradient is estimated using a second order
To facilitate this, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) maintains Taylor’s series expansion of the data and corrections are applied for changes in the
a Technical Activity Group (TAG) focused on Ground Motion Simulation borehole geometry with depth and orientation of sensors. The reducing slowness
Validation (GMSV), which was established in 2010 and has since coordinated method is iteratively applied to minimize the variance in WG slowness and G’/G
numerous GMSV-related projects. In this presentation, we summarize the progress estimates. Detailed analysis of the inferred velocity structure and G’/G using the
and future plans of this TAG. Most recently, results from several GMSV-related ray ansatz yields several interesting results. G’/G is strongly related to the depth-
projects were presented at a workshop during the 2014 SCEC Annual Meeting dependent impedance and weakly dependent on attenuation with depth. Using
and plans were made for a collaborative project that builds on the knowledge from the inferred velocity, density may also be determined. Application of WG on point
completed GMSV projects by implementing certain “validation gauntlets” in the source synthetic seismograms for vertically inhomogeneous structure shows that
SCEC Broadband Platform. Each validation gauntlet is designed for a specific the inferred velocity structure and impedance determination is a robust aspect of
engineering application. For example, a gauntlet developed by Burks & Baker WG analysis in the far field. However, a relation derived using ray theory for depth
(2014) is focused on GMSV for nonlinear response history analysis of 3D multi- dependent attenuation is not appropriate in detail but yields reasonable estimates
degree-of-freedom buildings with validation tests based on simple parameters that of attenuation when averaged over depth. Our conclusion is that application of

on 09 October 2018
WG through the ray ansatz yields appropriate, smoothed velocity models that in size distribution may suggest that the density of seismic patches decreases with
can be used as an end product or as a starting model for synthetic seismogram depth, or that the region surrounding the seismic asperities strengthens with
computations for data collected from dense borehole arrays. depth.
Basic Wave Propagation Results from a Highly-Dense Seismic Array on the Localizing and Monitoring Coherent Phenomena in an Urban Environment
San Jacinto Fault Zone RIAHI, N., UC San Diego, La Jolla, CA, nriahi@ucsd.edu; GERSTOFT, P., UC
BEN-ZION, Y., USC, Los Angeles, CA, benzion@usc.edu; VERNON, F., San Diego, La Jolla, CA, pgerstoft@ucsd.edu
UCSD, San Diego, CA, flvernon@ucsd.edu; OZAKIN, Y., USC, Los Angeles,
CA, ozakin@usc.edu; ZIGONE, D., USC, Los Angeles, CA, zigone@usc.edu; The Long Beach dense array offers an opportunity to study not only earth
ROSS, Z., USC, Los Angeles, CA, zross@usc.edu; MENG, H., , Los Angeles, CA, structure but also urban vibrational sources at frequencies that are relatively
haoranme@usc.edu; WHITE, M., UCSD, San Diego, CA, mcwhite@ucsd.edu; high by seismological standards. At such high frequencies strong medium
REYES, J., UCSD, San Diego, CA, jreyescolon@ucsd.edu; HOLLIS, D., Nodal heterogeneity distorts the wavefield beyond the point were plane wave or spherical
wave assumptions are valid: we observe that beamforming and back-projection
Seismic, Signal Hill, CA, dan.hollis@nodalseismic.com; BARKLAGE, M.,
Nodal Seismic, Signal Hill, CA, mbarklage@nodalseismic.com techniques fail to yield interpretable results at frequencies higher than about 5 Hz.
However, the eigenvalue distribution of the covariance matrix of a set of seismic
The properties and dynamics of the heavily damaged and weathered material in receivers can be used to detect coherent signals without recourse to a wave field
the top few hundred meters of the crust are understood only in general terms, model. This can be used to identify coherent phenomena in time, frequency, and
especially near fault zones, despite their great importance to observed seismic space. For the Long Beach dataset we find a host of coherent signals between 5-
motion, crustal hydrology, subsurface reservoirs and numerous other applications. 100 Hz at different locations across the array aperture. Those phenomena are quite
To address such issues, and augment larger scale results on source and structural diverse, being transient and stationary as well as narrow-band and wide-band. We
properties within and around the San Jacinto fault zone, we deployed for 4 weeks discuss the cause of the observed coherence as well as the factors controlling its
in 2014 a highly-dense Nodal array with 1108 vertical (10 Hz) geophones in about value. Our results point to possible applications in studying dynamic urban noise
650 m x 700 m box configuration (nominal instrument spacing 10-30 m) centered sources and remotely monitoring eigenmodes of built structures.
on the Clark branch of the fault zone south of Anza. The array recorded earthquake
and noise data continuously with useable frequencies up to 200 Hz. Additional Matched Filter Detection of Microseismicity in Long Beach with a 5200-
data were generated by Betsy gun shots near about 30 sites of the deployment. station Dense Array
Initial results include multiple manifestations of two low velocity zones producing PENG, Z., Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, zpeng@gatech.edu;
motion amplification, with one likely being a fault zone trapping structure, wave LI, Z., Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, zli354@gatech.edu;
reflections from horizontal and vertical interfaces, strong attenuation effects, and MENG, X., Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, xmeng7@gatech.edu;
space-time variations of noise with clear local correlations up to 200 Hz. Updated INBAL, A., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, ainbal@
results will be presented in the meeting. gps.caltech.edu; HOLLIS, D., NodalSeismic LLC, Signal Hill, CA, dan.
hollis@nodalseismic.com; AMPUERO, J. P., California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, CA, ampuero@gps.caltech.edu
Determining Near Surface Structure in the Los Angeles Basin Using
Correlation of Dense Arrays A 5200-station array was deployed over a 10x7 km area in Long Beach from
CLAYTON, R., Caltech, Pasadena, CA, clay@gps.caltech.edu; TSAI, V., 01/2011 to 06/2011 as part of a petroleum industry survey, which covers a 10 km
Caltech, Pasadenas, CA, tsai@caltech.edu segment of the active Newport-Inglewood fault system. This provides an excellent
opportunity to monitor microseismicity in this region, especially those small events
We use continuous recordings of dense oil-company seismic arrays in the Los (e.g., magnitude less than 0) that are below the detection threshold of Southern
Angeles Basin region to form virtual sources by correlation. Summing the virtual California Seismic Network (SCSN). In this study, we focus on the time period
sources with small source-side and receiver-side arrays creates gathers that enhance immediately before and after the occurrence of the 03/11/2011 Mw91 Tohoku-
the P-wave portion of the wavefield. These profiles show refracted waves including Oki earthquake. This event has triggered weak deep tremor along the San Jacinto
discontinuities related to faults that can be used to construct velocity models of the Fault in Southern California (Chao et al., 2013), as well as microearthquakes
sub-surface. A similar technique is used to enhance reflected waves with mid-point and swarms elsewhere around the world (Gonzalez-Huizar et al., 2012). Based
gathers. We also extend the spatial coverage of the models by correlating the dense on visual inspection of 5-Hz high-pass filtered waveforms, and events identified
arrays with the broadband SCSN stations in the LA Basin (20 stations). from a back-projection method (Inbal et al., submitted), we do not find any
statistically significant increase of high-frequency events beneath the array during
Active Faulting in Long-Beach, CA, from Dense Array Data and immediately following the Tohoku-Oki mainshock. This is in contrast with a
INBAL, A., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, ainbal@gps. recent study that shows relatively high triggering potential in the Los Angeles basin
caltech.edu; CLAYTON, R., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, (van der Elst and Brodsky, 2010). Our next step is to use waveforms of ˜120 SCSN
events within 50 km of the array as templates, and scan through the continuous
clay@gps.caltech.edu; AMPUERO, J. P., California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, CA, ampuero@gps.caltech.edu data around the Tohoku-Oki mainshock to detect additional microearthquakes.
Updated results will be presented in the meeting.
The Newport-Inglewood Fault (NIF) is one of the most seismically active faults in
the Los-Angeles basin. However, due to poor signal-to-noise ratio, its structure is Detection and Location of Microseismic Events at Mt St Helens from Dense
not as well resolved by the seismic network as that of other, less instrumented faults Nodal Data
in California. To monitor microseismicity along the NIF and to determine which HANSEN, S. M., University of New Mexico, NM; SCHMANDT, B., University
of the previously mapped faults are currently active, we analyze the recordings of a of New Mexico, NM; LEVANDER, A., Rice, ; KISER, E., Rice,
dense array installed in Long Beach (LB) during 2011, composed of 5200 vertical
sensors in an area of 7x10 km, with average spacing of 100 meters. The automatic Mt St Helens provides a natural laboratory for studying microseismicity due to
detection and location procedure, based on array techniques at frequencies as high the abundance of earthquakes resulting from tectonic and magmatic processes. An
as 10 Hz, consists of two stages: (1) downward-continuation of the data, and (2) excellent opportunity is provided by the Mt St Helens nodal deployment which
back-projection of high-frequency envelopes. The event magnitude is determined recorded data for two weeks in July 2014 and consisted of over 900 autonomous
by using an empirical calibration scheme. Remarkably, detected seismicity along seismometers located within 15 km of the summit crater. During the recording
the NIF is not correlated with the mapped fault trace or with drilling activity period, the PNSN permanent monitoring network detected 65 earthquakes within
in the LB Oilfield. Most of the events occur on sub-vertical to slightly dipping the array footprint, 45 of which were located directly beneath the summit at
faults located to the north and south of the NIF, at depths larger than 15 km, less than 10 km depth. The array temporarily increased spatial sampling of the
well below the commonly observed seismogenic depth in southern California. We wavefield in this area by roughly two orders-of-magnitude and thus offers the
analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of microseismicity in LB, and show that potential to significantly increase event detection. However, the scale of this
attributes common to earthquake populations in other tectonic environments are dataset also presents a challenge to many traditional data processing schemes
also present in the back-projection catalog. We determine aftershock rates from which often require substantial human intervention. In this study, several semi-
a composite catalog by stacking many mainshock-aftershock pairs, and find that automated event detection algorithms are investigated for their efficacy including
while aftershock rate decays according to the usual Omori law, aftershock duration subarray beamforming and continuous reverse-time imaging, which is particularly
is very short. The event size distribution obeys the Gutenberg-Richter law with a beneficial because it simultaneously detects and locates events but is relatively
b -value close to one at shallow depths, but larger at depth. The depth-transition computationally expensive. Initial efforts at earthquake detection focusing on the

on 09 October 2018
summit region resulted in a fivefold increase in events relative to the network extending north from American Canyon along the west margin of the Napa
catalog during the deployment. Development and tuning of the reverse-time Valley. Holocene activity has been identified along the southern-most 8 km of the
imaging algorithm is currently ongoing, but applying this approach continuously WNFZ and this section of the WNFZ is zoned for fault rupture hazard under
to a single day of data resulted in nearly 500 detections, which suggests a reduction the Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning Act (A-P). The WNFZ has also been
in detection threshold of approximately two magnitude units. included in regional estimates of seismic hazard, the most recent being the third
Uniform Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Geologic data such as average
Precise Relative Earthquake Depth Determination Using Array Processing recurrence, timing of past earthquakes, and slip rate are not yet available for the
Techniques WNFZ, complicating efforts to characterize this fault zone for seismic hazards.
FLOREZ, M. A., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, Additionally, many of the mapped strands are challenging to evaluate for A-P
mflorez@mit.edu; PRIETO, G. A., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, zoning purposes due to a lack of geomorphic expression and suitable deposits to
Cambridge, MA, gprieto@mit.edu demonstrate Holocene activity. UCERF3 used an assumed geologic slip rate and
three geodetically-based deformation models for a weighted average slip rate of 1.4
The mechanism for intermediate depth and deep earthquakes is still under debate. mm/yr. The modeled time-independent recurrence of M 6.7 or greater earthquakes
The temperatures and pressures are above the point where ordinary fractures on the WNF is about 1150 years. Due to a lack of recurrence data on the WNFZ,
ought to occur. Key to constraining this mechanism is the precise determination of there is no way to compare the modeled recurrence with paleoseismic data, and
hypocentral depth. It is well known that using depth phases allows for significant the lack of a well-constrained geologic slip rate makes it difficult to evaluate the
improvement in event depth determination, however routinely and systematically geologic data against the geodetic deformation models. New mapping efforts and
picking such phases for teleseismic or regional arrivals is problematic due to poor paleoseismic studies stimulated by the 2014 South Napa earthquake are underway
signal-to-noise ratios around the pP and sP phases. To overcome this limitation we and will aid in the preparation of regulatory zone maps and an improved seismic
have taken advantage of the additional information carried by seismic arrays. We source model for the WNFZ. However, the characterization of data-poor, poorly-
have used beamforming and velocity spectral analysis to precisely measure pP-P expressed faults remains an issue on other faults in California and exemplifies the
and sP-P differential travel times. These techniques are further extended to achieve need for detailed studies elsewhere prior to future, damaging earthquakes.
subsample accuracy and to allow for events where the signal-to-noise ratio is close
to or even less than 1.0. The individual estimates obtained at different subarrays
for a pair of earthquakes are combined using a double-difference algorithm in Extent and Distribution of Surface Faulting from the M6.0 South Napa
order to precisely map seismicity in regions where it is tightly clustered. We Earthquake of Aug. 24, 2014
PONTI, D. J., U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, dponti@usgs.gov;
illustrate this method using data from the recent Mw 7.9 intermediate depth
Alaska earthquake and its aftershocks, and provide evidence for a subvertical DAWSON, T. E., California Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, timothy.
faulting mechanism. In a similar way, but for regional distances, we systematically dawson@conservation.ca.gov; SCHWARTZ, D. P., U.S. Geological
analyze data from the Bucaramanga nest in northern South America. Our results Survey, Menlo Park, CA, dschwartz@usgs.gov; BROOKS, B. A., U.S.
suggest that the technique proposed here can be used to robustly identify internal Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, bbrooks@usgs.gov; DELONG, S. B.,
structures of clustered seismicity at depths of 70 Km or larger, using both regional U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, sdelong@usgs.gov; HECKER, S.,
and teleseismic arrivals. U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, shecker@usgs.gov; HUDNUT,
K. W., U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA, hudnut@usgs.gov; KELSON,
Very Low Velocity Anomaly Detected by Analysis of CCF in a Dense Network. K. I., U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Sacramento, CA, kikelson@gmail.com;
IGLESIAS, A., Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM, Mexico, DF, Mexico, arturo@ LIENKAEMPER, J. J., U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, jlienk@
usgs.gov; PRENTICE, C. S., U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA„
geofisica.unam.mx; CÓRDOBA-MONTIEL, F., Centro de Ciencias de
cprentice@usgs.gov; ROSA, C. M., U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA,
la Tierra, Universidad Veracruzana, Jalapa, Ver. Mexico, fcordoba@uv.mx;
crosa@usgs.gov; RUBIN, R. S., California Geological Survey, Menlo Park,
HJÖRLEIFSDÓTTIR, V., Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM, Mexico, DF, Mexico, CA, ron.rubin@conservation.ca.gov; SEITZ, G. G., California Geological
vala@geofisica.unam.mx; SINGH, S. K., Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM, Survey, Menlo Park, CA, Gordon.Seitz@conservation.ca.gov; SICKLER, R.
Mexico, DF, Mexico, krishna@ollin.igeofcu.unam,mx R., U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, rsickler@usgs.gov; WESLING,
Tomographic studies have been recently published showing a clear shallow-crust J. R., California Office of Mine Reclamation, Sacramento, CA, JohnWesling@
low-velocity anomaly close, but not below, to an active volcanic field called “Los conservation.ca.gov.
Tuxtlas” or Tuxtla Volcanic Field (TVF) in the east of Mexico. These studies The South Napa earthquake produced the largest and most extensive coseismic
show that the extension of anomaly has a radius of ˜100km and is detected in surface rupture of any documented California earthquake of similar magnitude.
tomographic images computed for periods between 5 and 10s. In this work we Over 900 field observations document that right-lateral surface faulting occurred
used data from VEOX experiment (an array of more than 40 broad-band stations NW of the epicenter along six NW-trending sub-parallel fault traces within a zone
deployed along the Tehuantepec Isthmus) and from the broad-band network of ˜2 km wide and up to 15 km long. Most of the rupture occurred on previously
the Mexican National Seismological Service (SSN). The vertical component of unmapped faults or along parts of mapped faults not recognized as Holocene
seismic noise was processed, in a standard way (e.g. Bensen et al., 2007), to obtain active, which has implications for future fault hazard assessments in California. The
cross correlation functions (CCF) between pairs of stations. The low-pass filtered primary faulting occurred on a rupture trace (A) at the west edge of the zone, and
CCF (< .1Hz) show a clear Rayleigh pulse propagating along the profile with was observed for at least 12.5 km from the Napa River at Cuttings Wharf NW
an approximate constant velocity; however the high-pass filtered CCF (> .1Hz) to beyond Alston Park in the city of Napa. UAVSAR interferograms produced
show strong differences especially in the region just to the south of TVF. By using by NASA suggest that faulting may have extended an additional 2.3 km to the
different structures, we made numerical simulations of seismic records, trying to SE and an additional 0.7 km to the NW, but tectonic displacements along these
explain the observed seismograms. trends could not be verified in the field. Initial coseismic slip was minimal close
to the epicenter and reached a maximum of 46 cm approximately 10 km to the
NW. Slip on A occurred both coseismically and as afterslip, with most of the total
The August 24, 2014 South Napa, CA Earthquake: Science displacement along its southern half occurring as afterslip. Afterslip was most rapid
in the middle third of A, increasing initial slip by =20 cm 1 day after the mainshock.
Results, Impacts and Lessons Learned The longest secondary rupture trace (C), extends ˜7 km SSE from the northern end
Oral Session · Tuesday · 8:30 AM · 21 April · Ballroom F of the rupture zone, where trace A appears to merge with it. Dextral offsets of =8
Session Chairs: Gareth Funning, Benjamin Brooks and cm were observed along C with no evidence for afterslip. The four other traces are
each <1.5 km in length and display minor, discontinuous offsets of =6 cm. Local
Timothy Dawson expressions of prior recent faulting, and post-earthquake trenching investigations
on some of these suggest that they may be part of an active, broad shear zone where
the amount of displacement and extent of rupture along each trace may vary from
Seismotectonic Setting of the West Napa Fault and Challenges in
earthquake to earthquake.
Characterization for Seismic and Surface Faulting Hazards
DAWSON, T. E., California Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, timothy.
dawson@conservation.ca.gov Differencing of Airborne Laser Scanning Data Acquired Before and After the
2014 South Napa Earthquake
The West Napa fault zone (WNFZ) is one of several strike-slip faults that HUDNUT, K. W., U. S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA, hudnut@
accommodates dextral shear in the San Francisco Bay Region and is mapped as usgs.gov; GLENNIE, C. L., University of Houston, Houston, TX,
a 45 km-long zone of multiple, sub-parallel fault strands, up to 2.6 km in width, clglenni@central.uh.edu; BROOKS, B. A., U. S. Geological Survey, Menlo

on 09 October 2018
Park, CA, bbrooks@usgs.gov; ARROWSMITH, J. R., Arizona State University, Berkeley, CA, ingrid@seismo.berkeley.edu; NEUHAUSER, D., University of
Tempe, AZ, ramon.arrowsmith@asu.edu; NISSEN, E., Colorado School California, Berkeley, CA, doug@seismo.berkeley.edu; GRAPENTHIN, R.,
of Mines, Golden, CO, enissen@mines.edu; OSKIN, M. E., University of New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM, rg@nmt.edu
California, Davis, CA, meoskin@ucdavis.edu; KELLOGG, L. H., University of
California, Davis, CA, kellogg@ucdavis.edu; CROSBY, C., UNAVCO, Boulder, ElarmS and GlarmS are UC Berkeley’s seismic and geodetic algorithms
CO; DELONG, S., U. S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA; DAWSON, T. contributing to the demonstration earthquake early warning system in California,
E., California Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA; HOIRUP, D. F., Department CISN ShakeAlert. In the August 24, 2014 South Napa earthquake, ElarmS’ first
of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA; ERICKSEN, T., University Hawaii, alert, with a magnitude of 5.7, was sent to the Decision Module of the ShakeAlert
Manoa, HI system 5.1 s after the rupture started. The alert was based on P-wave triggers from
four stations and took 3.3 s to produce after the waves arrived at the seismic station
Post-earthquake airborne laser scanning (ALS) data allow rapid and high- nearest to the epicenter (6.5 km). The latencies of the four stations contributing to
resolution analysis of fault ruptures and hazards. Differencing techniques used the first alert ranged from 0.27 to 2.62 s, contributing to a total delay of 2.3 s, with a
to quantify surface displacements along the rupture and associated secondary concommitant increase in the blind zone, the region with no warning. Overall the
effects including mass movements, liquefaction, and subsidence, also require pre- magnitude estimate and event location were stable from the initial alert onwards.
event reference data. Such data are increasingly likely to be available for surface Recent improvements to the configuration of ElarmS and the requirements on
rupturing earthquakes in the U.S. and Japan, where ALS covers many active earthquake early warning station density and data feeds now allow very rapid
deformation zones. We are exploring new ways to observe earthquake effects reporting of earthquake parameters for ShakeAlert. The geodetic module, GlarmS,
and ground deformation using laser scanning, which affords scale and resolution was running in testing mode at the time of the South Napa earthquake. It was
that complement other ground- and space-based methods imaging of coseismic triggered by the ShakeAlert Decision Module alert message and produced an
deformation. For the Aug. 24, 2014 South Napa earthquake, pre-earthquake estimated fault plane and magnitude 23 s after the origin. This earthquake is at
ALS data had been acquired over the Napa Watershed by NCALM in 2003 the lower size limit for geodetic analysis.
(http://dx.doi.org/10.5069/G9BG2KW9). These data present an opportunity
to create surface displacement fields, so DWR, CGS, USGS, PEER and GEER Complexity in the Coseismic Fault Geometry and in the Postseismic Slip
contracted to acquire ALS data on Sept. 9, 2014 (Hudnut et al., AGU Distribution of the South Napa Earthquake, from Sentinel-1a Insar and Near-
EOS 2014, Hudnut et al., USGS OFR 2014-1249, hddsexplorer.usgs.gov, and Field GPS Data
www.opentopography.org). We used both a standard open-source iterative closest FUNNING, G. J., University of California, Riverside, CA, gareth@ucr.edu;
point (ICP) differencing approach and newly refined ICP (with weighting scaled
by trajectory and scanning geometry) to analyze the co-seismic displacement field, FLOYD, M. A., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA,
and independently showed that it reaches a local maxima of ˜50 cm. We have mfloyd@mit.edu; WALTERS, R. J., University of Leeds, Leeds, UK, R.J.
checked point cloud density and calibrations, and identified and removed artifacts Walters@leeds.ac.uk; ELLIOTT, J. R., University of Oxford, Oxford,
across the project area. DEMs have been produced by several methods in support UK, johne@earth.ox.ac.uk; WRIGHT, T. J., University of Leeds, Leeds,
of fault hazard mapping by CGS and ground failure checks along levees by DWR. UK, T.J.Wright@leeds.ac.uk; MARINKOVIC, P., PPO.labs, The Hague,
In addition to these latest findings using the two data sets, we compare the Netherlands, petarmar@gmail.com; LARSEN, Y., Norut, Tromso, Norway,
performance of our refined and open-source ICP methodologies for determining yngvar.larsen@norut.no
surface displacements across this region of distributed fault rupture. The August 24, 2014 South Napa earthquake was among the first where pre-
event SAR data from the Sentinel-1A satellite, launched in April 2014, were
Co- and Post-Seismic Near-field Deformation Associated with the 2014 M6.0 available. Given repeat image mode acquisitions in the days and weeks following
South Napa Earthquake Surface Rupture the earthquake, and the 12 day repeat interval of Sentinel-1A, both coseismic and
BROOKS, B. A., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, bbrooks@usgs.gov; early postseismic deformation signals are well resolved spatially and temporally
GLENNIE, C. L., University of Houston, Houston, TX, clglennie@uh.edu; in InSAR time series. Here we present models of the fault responsible for the
MINSON, S. E., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, sminson@usgs.gov; observed deformation, and the distribution of coseismic and postseismic slip upon
MURRAY, J., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA; HUDNUT, K., US it, obtained through joint inverse modeling of our InSAR time series with near-
Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA; ERICKSEN, T. L., US Geological Survey, field GPS data collected over the same time period. The majority of the observed
Menlo Park, CA coseismic deformation can be explained by slip of up to 1.5 m along a zone ˜12
We measure near-field deformation associated with the surface rupture of the 2014 km long, in the depth range 0.5-5 km, on a fault with a location that agrees with
M6.0 South Napa earthquake from repeat mobile laser scanning (MLS) surveys. the main surface rupture mapped in the field, and that dips steeply westwards. We
Starting the day after the main shock, we carried out multiple scans over much of the additionally find that the large coseismic GPS displacements near the northern end
=12.5 km long principal rupture with simultaneously operating near (< 75m) and of the main surface rupture constrain secondary slip on a subparallel fault strand
intermediate (< 400m) field scanners. We performed three types of analyses: (1) NE of the main rupture, forming an extensional stepover geometry. Postseismic
surface displacement of built structures common to the MLS data and an airborne InSAR data for the first month after the mainshock show unequivocal evidence of
laser scan (ALS) survey from 2003; (2) surface displacement of cultivated vine a sustained displacement discontinuity across the main coseismic rupture, largest in
rows, deflected by co-seismic slip along the rupture; and (3) surface displacement amplitude to the southeast of the main coseismic slip zone. This is consistent with
of features (tree trunks, fence posts, vine rows) common to all MLS data sets and shallow frictional afterslip of up to 50 cm on the main fault plane at depths of 4 km
deformed by vigorous fault afterslip. The surface rupture has a bimodal distribution or less; perhaps unusually, compared with other cases of shallow afterslip seen in
between co-seismic and post-seismic slip. Co-seismic slip is concentrated in the California, no interseismic creep had been identified here before the earthquake. A
northern half of the rupture and reaches a maximum of ˜50cm. Post-seismic slip second, deeper region of slip can be distinguished downdip of this shallow region,
concentrates to the south and, by the end of 2014, had also reached values as large at depths of 6-8 km. Given its location, along-strike from the main coseismic zone,
as ˜50cm, apparently balancing the co-seismic slip deficit. The vine rows tend to and its greater depth, this may represent a triggered slow slip event.
be oriented at high angles to the fault rupture and afford an excellent datum with
which to explore near-surface faulting phenomena such as width of the fault zone, Coseismic and Postseismic Deformation History of the August 2014 Mw 6.0
depth of faulting, and near-surface slip distribution. We invert these data using South Napa Earthquake Measured with InSAR Time Series
elastic and layered elastic models and find that: (1) the fault zone must be narrow FIELDING, E. J., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
(less than 10m wide); (2) the uppermost tip of the rupture does not reach shallower Eric.J.Fielding@jpl.nasa.gov; MILILLO, P., University of Basilicata,
than 1-2m where coseismic slip dies off and expresses itself as at the surface as a Potenza, Italy, pietro.milillo@unibas.it; BÜRGMANN, R., University of
series of en echelon opening-mode steps; (3) slip must be relatively uniform from California, Berkeley, CA, burgmann@seismo.berkeley.edu; SAMSONOV, S.,
very near the surface to depths of 1-2 km. Via joint and independent inversions, Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada, Sergey.Samsonov@NRCan-
we also attempt to reconcile the near-surface slip distribution with the deeper slip RNCan.gc.ca; YUN, S. H., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
distribution constrained from space-geodetic methods. Sang-Ho.Yun@jpl.nasa.gov; BROOKS, B., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park,
CA, bbrooks@usgs.gov; HUDNUT, K., US Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA,
Earthquake Early Performance in the M 6.0 South Napa earthquake: UCB’s hudnut@usgs.gov; LIENKAEMPER, J., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA,
algorithms ElarmS and GlarmS jlienk@usgs.gov; AGRAM, P., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena,
HELLWEG, M., University of California, Berkeley, CA, peggy@seismo. CA, piyush.agram@jpl.nasa.gov
berkeley.edu; ALLEN, R. M., University of California, Berkeley, CA,
rallen@berkeley.edu; HENSON, I., University of California, Berkeley, The Mw 6.0 South Napa Earthquake struck Napa County of California on 24
CA, henson@seismo.berkeley.edu; JOHANSON, I., University of California, August 2014 with extensive surface ruptures mapped in the field and with satellite

on 09 October 2018
and airborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). The Italian Space Ground-Motion Simulations of 3-D Basin Effects for Aftershocks from the 2014
Agency’s (ASI) has been acquiring COSMO-SkyMedT M (CSKT M ) synthetic South Napa Earthquake
aperture radar (SAR) images of the Napa area since June 2013 with two different AAGAARD, B. T., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, baagaard@usgs.gov;
look directions (satellite moving south looking west, and satellite moving north RODGERS, A. J., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA,
and looking east). The Canadian Space Agency and partner MDA have been rodgers7@llnl.gov; PITARKA, A., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,
acquiring RADARSAT-2 (RS2) SAR images over the San Francisco area for several Livermore, CA, pitarka1@llnl.gov
years, with partial coverage of the southern part of Napa County. Preliminary
time series analysis of the CSK and RS2 SAR image time series before the 2014 We use 3-D ground-motion simulations of three M3+ aftershocks from the
earthquake shows moderate rates of surface deformation likely related to variations 2014 M6.0 South Napa earthquake to evaluate basin effects in the northern San
in ground water levels. By the end of October 2014, there were 9 CSK scenes on the Francisco Bay area. One of the aftershocks (M3.2) was recorded on 16 temporary
descending track (first on 27 August 02:08 UTC) and 5 scenes on the ascending stations deployed in and around the city of Napa. We model wave propagation
track (first on 3 September 13:55 UTC) acquired after the earthquake. We use at periods of 1.0 s and longer through both a regional 1-D seismic velocity model
GIAnT to extend the time series analysis across the time of the earthquake and (Stidham et al., 1999) and the USGS 3-D Bay Area Seismic Velocity Model
calculate a better estimate of the coseismic deformation as a step function in the (Aagaard et al., 2010). We approximate each aftershock rupture as a point source
time interval between the date of the last pre-quake scene and first post-quake and refine the moment tensor solutions reported by the Berkeley Seismological
scene, plus a postseismic deformation time function. We also performed separate Laboratory to improve the fit to local strong motions. The synthetics using the 3-
time series analysis on the postseismic scenes alone to better separate postseismic D seismic velocity reproduce complex features of the recorded motions consistent
from coseismic deformation. We observe rapid afterslip on both the ascending with sedimentary basin effects, including a sedimentary basin beneath the city of
and descending interferograms, concentrated at shallow depth (1–3 km) on the Napa. We quantify the fit between the synthetics and observations using time-
southern part of the main coseismic rupture, extending from about 4 km north frequency misfits (Kristeková et al, 2006) and examine the spatial variability of
to 2 km south of the NEIC epicenter. We compare the InSAR measurements to the errors. This will help guide future improvements to the USGS 3-D Bay Area
ground measurements at alinement arrays and with LiDAR systems, in addition to Seismic Velocity Model. Additionally, the misfit can be used to characterize the
airborne LiDAR. contribution of error from the earth structure in 3-D ground-motion simulations
of the mainshock.
Finite-Source Modeling of the South Napa Earthquake
DREGER, D. S., University of California, Berkeley, CA, ddreger@berkeley.edu;
WOODELL, K. E., University of California, Berkeley, CA, wooddell@
berkeley.edu; HUANG, M. H., University of California, Berkeley, CA,
From Newspapers to Numerical Analyses: Documenting
mong@berkeley.edu and Understanding Earthquakes in Central and Eastern
North America
On August 24 2014 an Mw 6.0 earthquake struck 10 km south-southwest of
the city of Napa, California. We have developed a preliminary kinematic finite- Oral Session · Tuesday · 2:15 PM · 21 April · Ballroom F
source model of the earthquake inverting seismic waveform data from the Berkeley Session Chairs: Robert Williams, Oliver Boyd and William
Digital Seismic Network (BDSN), GPS from Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) Levandowski
sites, and InSAR from the COSMO-SkyNet system (Dreger et al., 2015). This
model shows that the rupture initiated at 11 km and ruptured unilaterally to
the NW up-dip toward Napa, CA resulting in the generation of large damaging Quantifying Interactions among Gravity-derived Stress, Far-field
ground motions. The average and peak slips are 0.23 and 1.2 meter, and the slip is Compression, and Inherited Structures in the Central United States
predominantly right-lateral strike-slip. The scalar seismic moment was found to LEVANDOWSKI, W. B., USGS Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden, CO,
be 1.44e18 Nm corresponding to Mw 6.1. The preliminary model does show a wlevandowski@usgs.gov; BOYD, O. S., USGS Geologic Hazards Science Center,
change in rake at the northern end of the rupture where surface offsets indicate Golden, CO, olboyd@usgs.gov
a change in strike. The change in rake may therefore be an artifact of the overly
simple single-plane rupture model. In this study we will incorporate additional Most historical seismicity in the central and eastern United States clusters in
strong motion, GPS and InSAR data to provide better constraints on the kinematic failed rifts or along the rifted Atlantic margin. Nevertheless, earthquakes have been
model, and test multi-planar fault models to investigate possible complex rupture focused only in limited stretches of these physiographic regions, and some large
geometry. ancestral rifts are seismically quiet. This study quantifies the interactions among
inherited structures, the regional stress field, and body forces in two endmember
Three-Dimensional Ground Motion Simulations of the 2014 South Napa settings: the tectonically impressive but seismically quiet Midcontinent Rift
Earthquake using the USGS Geologic/Seismic Model and Various Source (MCR; Iowa and Minnesota) and the New Madrid seismic zone. In each region,
Models a 3D density structure—jointly derived from seismic velocity models, gravity,
RODGERS, A. J., LLNL, Livermore, CA, rodgers7@llnl.gov; PITARKA, A., topography, and heat flow—is used for finite element modeling of gravity-derived
stress tensors. Dense crust within the MCR results in ˜5 MPa of tensional stress
LLNL, Livermore, CA, pitarka1@llnl.gov; DREGER, D. S., University of
within the rift and minor (˜2 MPa) compressional stress on the NE–SW trending
California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, ddreger@berkeley.edu; AAGAARD, B. T.,
faults along its edges. Nevertheless, the region remains aseismic because these
USGS, Menlo Park, CA, baagaard@usgs.gov
structures are subparallel to the regional NE–SW maximum horizontal stress, so
We perform anelastic finite-difference simulations of the August 24, 2014, M6.0 body forces do little to complement or counteract principal plate-boundary and
South Napa earthquake to model the observed ground motions. The objective basal stresses. Conversely, the Reelfoot Thrust (RFT)—generally interpreted as a
of this effort is to evaluate the abilities of various rupture models and the restraining bend in a dominantly strike-slip system—strikes sub-orthogonally to
USGS 3D seismic velocity model to predict ground motions, including the local NE–SW compression, making it well suited to slip in the current stress regime.
strong motion records, regional broadband recordings and geodetic displacements. Further, the crust beneath the lower Mississippi embayment to the SW is thinner
Comparison of the RotD50 spectral accelerations (Boore et al., 2006) for local (˜25 km vs. ˜45 km), and mid to lower crust beneath the Illinois Basin to the
strong motions in the period range 1-10 seconds using the Dreger et al. (2014) NE is denser (by ˜50 kg/m3) than the crust beneath the RFT. These along-
rupture model indicates that the USGS 3D model better predicts the observed strike variations add ˜5 MPa to far-field stress on SW-dipping faults such as the
motions than the average regional GIL7 1D seismic velocity model (Stidham et RFT, localizing contraction. These two case studies suggest that in the presence of
al. (1999)). Regional trends in the RotD50 ratios (data/synthetic) identify paths antecedent structures striking NW–SE, large NE–SW gradients in crustal/upper
for which the rupture and/or structural model need improvement. We plan to mantle density may focus compressional strain.
evaluate other rupture models for the mainshock as well. Regional simulations
focusing on the longer range (up to 100 km), longer period motions (5-50 seconds), Exploring Paleoseismic Signals from Caves in the Central and Eastern USA
including Berkeley Seismic Digital Network broadband and Bay Area Regional TINSLEY, J. C., USGS, Menlo Park, CA, jtinsley@usgs.gov; PACES, J. B.,
Deformation Network and Plate Boundary Observatory continuous GPS, clearly USGS, Lakewood, CO, jbpaces@usgs.gov; PANNO, S. V., Illinois Geol. Survey,
indicate that the 3D velocity model is needed to predict the complex, late arriving Champaign, IL, s-panno@illinois.edu
recorded energy related to basin structure. This work was performed in part
under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore Field observations from 47 caves in the central and eastern USA (CEUS) show that
National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS- uranium-series dating of earthquake-damaged speleothems (cave formations) and of
665926 quake-triggered new speleothem growth can yield paleoearthquake chronologies in

on 09 October 2018
seismogenic areas where inter-event times may span 103 – 104 years. Conventional Maps. The CEUS hazard maps contain a background source model that takes
paleoseismic techniques (trenching to date disrupted strata or liquefaction effects into account possible future earthquakes in regions with little historical seismicity.
to identify prior earthquakes) work where faults rupture to the ground surface CEUS basement rock is divided into relatively undeformed craton and an outboard
and sedimentation preserves events. Other techniques are needed in the CEUS, region of crustal extension that includes the Valley and Ridge and Blue Ridge
where seismogenic faults tend not to daylight and lack prominent geomorphic provinces. According to the tectonic model currently in use, basement below these
expression. Caves are common in the CEUS; as landscape features, caves persist for provinces experienced rifting during the opening of the Iapetan (proto-Atlantic)
millions of years and contain speleothems that can be impacted by strong ground Ocean. Increasing seismological evidence indicates the presence of thick rather
shaking. Speleothems commonly incorporate 0.1-10 ppm 234U at deposition that than thin crust below these provinces and thick crust is also indicated by low
decays and produces a daughter, 230Th. With proper samples, U-series dating Bouguer gravity anomalies. The rifting model is based in large part upon the
can span 350K-500K years with precision of a few percent (comparable to 14C). presence of regions of elevated seismicity in the basement such as the Giles County
Reconnaissance of 10 caves in IL and IN and 14 caves between Knoxville, TN Virginia seismic zone. These earthquakes are explained by a new seismotectonic
and the Shenandoah Valley, VA shows speleothem breakage and new-growth model developed for the eastern Tennessee seismic zone involving reactivation of
initiation effects are common. Moreover, the sizes of broken speleothems and a Grenville-age shear zone in the basement and do not require reactivation of rift
sizes of post-breakage speleothem growth increase eastward from the Ozarks to faults. Reevaluation of the geologic and tectonic input into the background source
the Appalachians; we infer an eastwardly increase in inter-event times of major model and maximum magnitude values for the CEUS portion of the national
earthquakes. Despite challenges in dating speleothems with complex histories and seismic hazard maps is warranted in light of new revelations regarding the thickness
avoiding breakage owing to non-seismic causes, caves thatcontain time-synchronous and structural framework of the older Phanerozoic/Precambrian basement.
effects across geographic areas offer promise for recognizing paleoearthquakes where
conventional paleoseismology may not succeed. The Source of the 1886 Charleston Earthquake: Similarities of Current
Seismicity in the Epicentral Area with the Aftershocks of the M 5.8 Mineral,
Are Intraplate Faults Accruing Strain? Virginia Earthquake of 2011
CALAIS, E., Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France, eric.calais@ens.fr; CHAPMAN, M. C., Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, mcc@vt.edu; HARDY, A.
CRAIG, T. J., Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France, tim.craig@ens.fr C., Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, annacorellah@gmail.com; BEALE, J. A.,
Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, jnbeale@gmail.com; WU, Q., Virginia Tech,
We ask the question whether potentially seismogenic faults in intraplate settings Blacksburg, VA, wqimin86@vt.edu
are currently accruing strain at a rate consistent with the rate of strain release in
large earthquakes. A positive answer would imply that intraplate faults behave as Data collected from a 2011-2012 deployment of 8 temporary stations in the
very slow plate boundary faults and that hazard assessment methods used at plate epicentral area of the M 7 1886 Charleston, SC earthquake resulted in 134
boundaries apply to plate interiors, while a negative one would imply that either hypocenter locations and 65 well-constrained focal mechanisms. The hypocenters
tectonic loading rates or fault properties in plate interiors vary with time. We define a south-striking tabular seismogenic zone dipping 43 degrees to the west
investigate this issue using 15 years of continuous GPS data from a network of 200 in the upper 12 km, and 43% of the focal mechanisms indicate reverse faulting
sites in the central United States centered on the New Madrid and Wabash Valley on approximately N-S trending nodal planes. Those observations and our previous
seismic zones, embedded in a 1100-site network covering the North American analyses of reflection profiles in the Summerville, SC area lead us to propose that
plate east of the Rocky mountains. We find that all the high quality sites in the source of the 1886 earthquake was compressional reactivation of a south-
these regions show motions that are consistently within the 95% confidence limit striking Mesozoic extensional fault. The results bear some notable similarities
of zero deformation, except for continent-wide glacial isostatic adjusment and to those obtained from the aftershock sequence of the M5.8 2011 Mineral,
local hydrology-related motions. These results place an upper bound on tectonic Virginia, earthquake, which had a reverse mechanism and most moment release
strain accrual on faults of 0.2 mm/yr and 0.5 mm/yr in the New Madrid and at approximately 7.5 km depth. In both cases, hypocenter locations define a tabular
Wabash Valley Seismic Zones, respectively. For the New Madrid region, where seismogenic zone, with the majority of events at shallow depth (1 to 6 km). In both
a paleoseismic record is available for the past ˜5,000 years, we argue that strain cases, the focal mechanisms show considerable diversity. In the case of the Mineral
accrual – if any – does not permit the observed 500-900 year repeat time of paleoearthquake, more than half of the solutions exhibit reverse mechanisms with P-axis
earthquakes in the Upper Mississippi Embayment. These results, together with trends differing by more than 15 degrees from that of the mainshock mechanism.
increasing evidence for temporal clustering and spatial migration of earthquake The same is true for the South Carolina data set, in terms of the difference between
sequences in continental interiors, indicate that either tectonic loading rates or focal mechanism B-axis trend and the N186E strike of the seismogenic zone. These
fault properties vary with time in the NMSZ and possibly plate-wide. similarities suggest the possibility that in both cases, the seismicity following the
mainshock is largely controlled by Coulomb stress transfer, acting on minor faults
Noise or Signal? Trying to Understand GPS Velocity Uncertainties in Central- with a range of orientations, despite the fact that the hypocenter locations appear
Eastern North America to define at least part of a planar mainshock damage zone. This is certainly the
DMITRIEVA, K., Stanford University, Stanford, CA, dmitrieva@stanford.com; case for the Mineral, Virginia aftershocks. It appears this is also the case for the on-
SEGALL, P., Stanford University, Stanford, CA, dmitrieva@stanford.edu going seismicity in the epicentral area of the 1886 Charleston earthquake, despite
the passage of nearly 129 years since the mainshock.
Continuous GPS measurements of crustal deformation can provide insights in
strain accumulation and seismic hazard in an area. However, after two decades
of GPS observations in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), scientists are Coulomb Stress Changes due to the 2011 Mw 5.8 Mineral, Virginia Earthquake
still debating whether future large earthquakes are possible or all current seismic WU, Q., Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, wqimin86@vt.edu; CHAPMAN, M. C.,
activity is simply aftershocks of the 1811-1812 earthquakes. Even when statistically Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, mcc@vt.edu
significant velocities are reported in the NMSZ, they are still small in magnitude.
For such modest signals it is very important to estimate the velocity uncertainties The Mw 5.8, August 23, 2011 Mineral, Virginia earthquake, the largest shock
correctly. Underestimating the uncertainties can lead to unreasonable confidence known in the central Virginia seismic zone (CVSZ), was a complex reverse fault
in the results, while overestimating the velocity uncertainties can mask meaningful rupture at depths between 7 and 8 km. The aftershock sequence was well-recorded
deformations. In GPS position time series it is well understood that velocity by temporary stations installed by several institutions. A detailed investigation
uncertainties are dominated by time-dependent noise. In this presentation we of thousands of aftershocks resolves spatial details of the aftershock hypocenter
show how traditional methods of estimating noise in GPS time series may lead distribution within the previously recognized tabular zone of aftershocks that
to underestimation of the GPS velocity uncertainties. We demonstrate a method form a cluster near the mainshock. This tabular zone of aftershock hypocenters
we have developed for the estimating the velocity uncertainties more precisely for in the vicinity of the mainshock exhibits strike and dip similar to the main shock
networks of stations. We reassess levels of time-dependent noise in the GPS time nodal plane, despite the fact that focal mechanism of many of the aftershocks
series in NMSZ, compute uncertainties for strain rate and discuss the implications exhibit very different focal mechanisms. Significantly, other aftershocks illuminate
for NMSZ and Central-Eastern North America. a seismogenic zone several tens of kilometers to the northeast of the mainshock.
Focal mechanisms of several hundred aftershocks exhibit substantial variability
Crustal Structure Below the Southern Appalachian Blue Ridge and Valley and in the region near the up-dip terminus of the mainshock rupture, and inversions
Ridge Provinces: Implications for National Seismic Hazard Maps for the best-fitting stress field vary, depending on location with respect to the
POWELL, C. A., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, capowell@ mainshock rupture. We investigated the correlation between the Coulomb stress
memphis.edu change following the mainshock with the spatial distribution of aftershocks and
found that most aftershocks occurred in areas with an increase in Coulomb stress.
A new tectonic setting is proposed for defining the central and eastern United Also, we resolved Coulomb stress changes on aftershock nodal planes and found
States (CEUS) background source regions in the USGS National Seismic Hazard that most of them were brought closer to failure. The good correlation indicates

on 09 October 2018
the dominant role that Coulomb stress transfer appears to play in the aftershock rupture (R RU P ) as far as 1000 km. The GMPEs are developed for the 5%-damped
process of the Mineral earthquake. Presumably, the aftershock process of this event pseudo-acceleration response spectra for hard-rock sites with V S30 = 3000 m/sec.
is representative of other moderate to large shocks that have occurred and will Seismological parameters for ENA are adopted from the most recent research and
occur in central and eastern North America, and a better understanding of the published information in ENA (Yenier and Atkinson, 2015a; Chapman, et al.,
aftershocks of this event could shed more light on the state of stress in intra-plate 2014; Boore Thompson, 2015; Hashash, et al., 2014). To obtain the seismological
North America. parameters for western North America (WNA), we performed a set of point-source
inversions to match the median NGA-West2 GMPEs for M = 6.0, RRU P = 200
Using Modern Geophysical Data to Look for an Active Fault at the Site of an km, V S30 = 760 m/sec, strike-slip faulting, and sediment-depth parameters equal
Historic CEUS Event: The 1727 Newburyport, MA Earthquake to the default values recommended by each of the NGA-West2 developers. The
EBEL, J. E., Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA two new sets of ENA GMPEs are based on two approaches: (1) using HEM for
all magnitudes; and (2) using HEM for M = 6.0 and using the magnitude-scaling
In 1727 an earthquake of magnitude about 5.6 was centered in northeastern predicted by the NGA-West2 GMPEs for M > 6.0.
Massachusetts. This earthquake damaged chimneys, knocked down stone fences,
and collapsed some cellar walls in the epicentral region. Several instances of sand
blows and hillside failures were reported at Newburyport, MA and Hampton
Falls, NH. Paleoseismological investigations of the local sand blows revealed Linking Ground Motion and Earthquake Source
an earlier episode of strong earthquake shaking in this same area. Over the Variability (SSA/ESC Joint Session)
past few decades, modern regional seismic network monitoring combined with
a local microearthquake survey detected a number of small earthquakes in the Oral Session · Tuesday · 8:30 AM · 21 April · Ballroom G
Newburyport area, and these are interpreted to be aftershocks of the 1727 Session Chairs: Ralph Archuleta, Fabrice Cotton and Adrien
earthquake. Their locations may constrain the location of the 1727 fault. The Oth
focal mechanism of an M3.0 earthquake in 1999 shows thrust movement on
a northwest-oriented fault plane, and this fault orientation is interpreted to be
the same as that of the 1727 earthquake. All of the major faults that have Components of the Variability of NGA-W2 Ground Motion Prediction Models
been mapped in the Newburyport area are Paleozoic faults that are oriented ALATIK, L., San Francisco, CA, linda.alatik@gmail.com
northeasterly, perpendicular to the suspected 1727 fault trend. On the other hand,
an examination of gravity data from the Newburyport area suggests that there Empirical ground-motion prediction models use datasets of recorded ground-
might be a northwesterly oriented structure in the basement that has little or no motion parameters at multiple stations during different earthquakes and in various
exposure at the earth’s surface. This study supports the idea that the monitoring source regions to generate equations that are later used to predict site-specific
and analyses of small earthquakes in the central and eastern U.S. combined with ground motions. The standard deviation of ground motion prediction models,
modeling of potential field data can provide important information on potentially generally referred to as sigma (σ), exerts a very strong influence on the results
seismically active structures in this intraplate region. of probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). It is often assumed that the
variability in ground motion at a single site-source combination is the same as the
Great Bay Lineament: Cause of the 1755 Cape Ann, Massachusetts, variability in ground motion observed in a more global dataset. This practice is
Earthquake? referred to as the ergodic assumption. The key to reducing the aleatory sigma is
MARPLE, R. T., , Fort Irwin, CA, ronmarple@verizon.net; ALTAMURA, R. J., identifying the components of ground-motion variability at a single site that are
Consulting Geologist, State College, PA, raltamura@comcast.net; HURD, J. D., repeatable rather than purely random. These components can then be removed
University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, james.hurd_jr@uconn.edu from the aleatory variability and transferred to the quantification of the epistemic
uncertainty. The PEER NGA-W2 dataset compiled a large uniformly-processed
The integration of LiDAR, gravity, sonar, topographic, and surficial geologic ground motion database consisting of 21,336 three-component ground motion
data revealed the presence of a ˜200-km-long, northwest-trending lineament recordings from 599 shallow crustal events with magnitude ranging from 3.0 to
that extends from the Great Bay estuary in southeastern New Hampshire 7.9. The availability of well recorded ground motions at single sites from multiple
southeastward to ˜85 km east of Cape Cod in the western Atlantic Ocean. This occurrences of earthquakes in the NGA-W2 dataset allows the estimation of the
lineament, herein named the Great Bay lineament, is defined primarily by a ˜170- site-to-site variability and removing it from the aleatory variability. Tends of single-
km-long, linear positive gravity anomaly (interpreted from a USGS Free Air gravity station within-event standard deviations and standard deviation of the site-to-site
map illuminated from the northeast) that coincides with an ˜1-km-wide, ˜7-km- residuals are analyzed and compared to results from published studies.
long and ˜7-m-deep, linear depression in the sea floor located immediately offshore
and two northwest-trending submarine canyons located northeast of Cape Ann, Insights on Source Variability from Combinations of Theoretical Models
Massachusetts. The submarine canyons may have formed by increased glacial for Fourier and Response Spectral Ordinates and Advanced Mixed Effects
plucking and subaerial erosion along a brittle fault zone during late Pleistocene Models
time when sea level was low enough to expose these areas. The offshore gravity STAFFORD, P. J., Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom,
lineament is also collinear with a linear, ˜15-km-long, NW-trending topographic p.stafford@imperial.ac.uk
depression located onshore that is along and southeast of Great Bay, yielding a
total length of 200 km for the proposed fault zone. If the Great Bay lineament Ground-motion models traditionally partition the total observed variability
and associated features are fault-related, its proximity to the Boston area, as well in motions among components that reflect between-event and within-event
as its 200-km length, would make it a viable candidate for the source of the fault variability. This between-event variability is quantified by the variance of the
displacements that produced the M 5.9 Cape Ann earthquake of 1755. Based random effects that represent systematic differences in motions from events of a
on these interpretations and the relatively recent discovery of a late Holocene given magnitude. These differences are usually attributed to other characteristics
tsunami deposit in coastal New Hampshire, further studies should be undertaken of the earthquake source that are not represented in the moment magnitude,
to confirm the presence and nature of this proposed fault zone and its potential to such as the dynamic stress drop, the rupture velocity or the rise time. In practice,
produce large damaging earthquakes. stress drop is the parameter most commonly referred to as being responsible
for the between-event variability. In some cases, such as when the stochastic
Ground Motion Prediction Equations for Eastern North America Using a method is used to develop ground-motion models this thinking is formalised.
Hybrid Empirical Method That is, it is assumed that between event variability arises entirely from parametric
PEZESHK, S., The University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, spezeshk@ variability in the stress drop. The random effects approaches typically employed
memphis.edu; ZANDIEH, A., Lettis Consultants International, Inc., in ground-motion model development can be extended significantly in order
Boulder, CO, arash.zandieh@live.com; CAMPBELL, K. W., EQECAT to associate random effects with any parameter within a ground-motion model.
CoreLogic, Oakland, CA, kcampbell@corelogic.com; TAVAKOLI, B., Bechtel Stafford (2014) recently demonstrated how the use of these extended mixed-effects
Corporation, San Francisco, CA, btavakol@bechtel.com model formulations can be applied in ground-motion model development. Here
two ways of extending this approach to provide insight into the variability in
A hybrid empirical method (HEM) is utilized to develop two new ground- stress drop (or other source parameters) are discussed. In the first case, stochastic
motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for Eastern North America (ENA) using inversions of Fourier amplitude spectra are undertaken using an elaborate mixed
five new NGA-West2 GMPEs developed by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering model formulation. This approach allows random effects to be associated with the
Research center (Bozorgnia et al., 2014). The two new GMPEs are derived for physical parameters that are typically assumed to define the far-field spectrum of
a moment magnitude (M) range of 4 to 8 and shortest distances to the fault shear waves. In the second case, a theoretical model for response spectral ordinates

on 09 October 2018
is developed using common predictors such as magnitude and distance, as well same stations. This approach has a number of advantages over more traditional
as stress drop and kappa. These two approaches provide insight into how much corner frequency fitting, either in spectral ratios or individual spectra. First, if the
of the between event variability is actually associated with variability in the stress bandwidth of the spectral ratio is sufficient, the levels can be measured at many
drop. individual frequency points and averaged, reducing the measurement error. Second
the apparent stress (and stress drop) is related to the high frequency level to the 3/2
Stress Drop Variability and its Relationship to Variability in GMPEs power so the measurement uncertainty is not as amplified as when using the corner
BALTAY, A. S., USGS, Menlo Park, CA, abaltay@usgs.gov; HANKS, T. C., frequency. Finally, if the bandwidth is sufficiently broad to determine both the
USGS, Menlo Park, CA, thanks@usgs.gov spectral ratio low and high frequency levels, the apparent stress (or stress drop) ratio
can be determined without the need to use any other measurements (e.g., moment,
Earthquake stress drop largely controls ground motion at high frequencies (i.e., fault area), which of course have their own measurement uncertainties. For this
greater than the corner frequency) excited by crustal earthquakes. However, the study, we processed southern California earthquake sequences using stable, high-
considerable variability of stress drop is troublesome as it widens the tails of the resolution coda measurements and find strong evidence that in these sequences
ground motion distribution and thus increases ground motion levels in PSHA. stress scales with size in a non-self-similar manner, regardless of source model high
Also of concern is that stress drop should correlate with the between-event frequency falloff.
variability (event terms) in ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), yet
the standard deviation of stress drop is much larger than that of the event terms. Statistical Properties of Stress Drop Estimates from the Generalized Spectral
This apparent discrepancy leads us to revisit the relationship between stress drops
Inversion of Strong Ground Motions Observed by K-Net, KiK-Net, and the JMA
and GMPE event terms, using the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-West2 Shindokei Network in Japan
ground motion database and KikNet data from Japan. We compare two different NAKANO, K., Ando Hazama Corporation, Tsukuba, Japan,
metrics, including a novel application of the Arias intensity measurement, with
nakano.kenichi@ad-hzm.co.jp; KAWASE, H., Kyoto University, Uji,
peak ground acceleration (PGA) event terms from several of the NGA-West2 Kyoto, Japan, kawase@zeisei.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp; MATSUSHIMA, S., Kyoto
GMPEs. We find a dependence of stress drop on depth (increasing stress drop University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan, matsushima@zeisei.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp
with depth, albeit using uniform material parameters) and whether the event
is a mainshock or on-fault aftershock (with mainshocks showing larger average We investigated the characteristics of strong ground motions separated from
stress drops). Because many of the GMPEs already consider these dependencies, acceleration Fourier spectra of ground motions observed by K-NET, KiK-net, and
neglecting to account for these trends will necessarily increase the observed the JMA Shindokei Network in Japan using the generalized spectral inversion
variability in stress drop. After considering these secondary trends in stress drop, method. The separation method used the outcrop motions at YMGH01 as a
we find that the reduced variability of the PGA event terms is attributable reference. We included events with magnitude equal to or larger than 4.5 observed
to several factors, including excellent data quality and processing in the NGA from 1996 to 2011. Our results are in good agreement with previous results
database; reduced natural variability of PGA measurements as opposed to spectral regarding source, path, and site characteristics, but with higher stability thanks to
determination; and error propagation when calculating a Brune stress drop, the increased amount of data. We found that our frequency-dependent Q values
due to the cube of the corner frequency. Furthermore, the empirical Green’s are comparable to those of previous studies, and that the obtained Q values depend
function deconvolution approach (Baltay et al. 2010, 2011) shows similarly on the traveling regions. As for the geometric spreading factor n, we find that for
reduced variability, and may represent the most accurate method of determining plate boundary (type B) and intraplate (type I) earthquakes the value is close to
seismological stress drops. 1.0, but crustal (type C) earthquakes show apparent frequency dependence. From
the corner frequencies of the separated source spectra, we calculated Brune’s stress
Magnitude Dependence of Stress Drop: Insights from the Observed parameters and found a clear magnitude dependence, in which smaller (M<5.5)
Magnitude Scaling of Ground-Motions events tend to spread over a wider range while maintaining the same maximum
DERRAS, B., Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble, France; COTTON, F., GFZ, value. This means that stress drops for larger events would be maximal. We
Potsdam, Germany; DROUET, S., Observatório Nacional, Rio de Janeiro, confirmed that this is exactly the case for several mainshock-aftershock sequences.
Brasil The distribution of stress parameters for the mainshock and its aftershocks is
quite consistent to the scale dependence of the whole sequence of earthquakes; the
The behaviour of earthquake source scaling has been the topic of significant debate mainshock with the largest moment has the largest stress value in the sequence and
in the earthquake source community over the past two decades. Methodologies large deviation is seen in aftershock stress values, owing to many lower stress value
which have been adopted by a large number of source studies require corrections events. The average stress parameters are 5.1 MPa for type B, 6.0 MPa for type I, and
for source radiation pattern, path attenuation and site amplification that ultimately 0.8 MPa for type C, the large differences between which are found to be explained
introduce large uncertainties for stress-drop estimates. In this study we adopt primarily by their depth dependence. Note that if the depths are the same type B
a different strategy: we analyse directly the ground-motions (Y) and their and type I earthquakes share the similar average stress drop.
dependencies with magnitude (M). We first use simple stochastic models (e.g.
Boore 2003) comprised of a Brune (1970,1971) source spectrum and various How Do Earthquake Stress Drop Variations Reflect in Strong Motion Intensity
models of magnitude-dependent stress drops. We show that magnitude-dependent Observations?
stress-drops and constant stress-drops models lead to different scaling of ground-
OTH, A., European Center for Geodynamics and Seismology, Walferdange,
motions (dlogY/dM) with frequency. Using the results of Molkenthin et al. Luxembourg, adrien.oth@ecgs.lu; MIYAKE, H., Earthquake Research Institute
(2014), we then analyse the magnitude dependency of NGA2 ground-motions (ERI), Tokyo, Japan, hiroe@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp; BINDI, D., GFZ German
for source-site configurations where stress-drops are the key controlling factors of Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany, bindi@gfz-potsdam.de
ground-motions (moderate distances and rock-sites). The use of a neural network
method allow to obtain fully records-driven evaluations of (dlogY/dM) with The physical properties of the seismic source play a major role in the generation
frequency both for simulated and observed records. The comparison between of earthquake ground motions. One of the key parameters typically used in this
these observed and simulated (dlogY/dM) favours the constant stress-drop context is the so-called stress drop since it can be directly linked to the high-
model for small magnitude earthquakes (M<4.5). We do not observe strong frequency spectral level of ground motion, and it is an important input parameter
differences of the magnitude scaling of ground-motions between mainshocks and for ground motion modeling. At the same time, classically determined stress
aftershocks. drop estimates from moment-corner frequency analysis have been shown to be
extremely variable, and this to a much larger degree than might be expected
Southern California Earthquake Scaling from Stable Event Ratio Levels from the decomposition of ground motion variability into its between-event and
MAYEDA, K., Weston Geophysical Corporation, Berkeley, CA, within-event components following the random effects approach (Cotton et al.,
kmayeda@westongeo.com; WALTER, W. R., Lawrence Livermore National 2013). This discrepancy raises the question of whether classically determined
Laboratory, Livermore, CA, walter5@llnl.gov; YOO, S., Weston Geophysical stress drop variability is too large, which would have significant consequences
Corporation, Lexington, MA, syoo@westongeo.com for ground motion prediction for seismic hazard analysis. In this work, we use
the wealth of high-quality data available in Japan to further investigate this
A challenge with using corner frequency to interpret stress parameter scaling is that issue. Non-parametric ground motion models have been derived on these data as
stress drop and apparent stress are related to the cube of the corner frequency. reference models, and we investigate the relation between the between-event terms
In practice this leads to high levels of uncertainty in measured stress since the for the individual earthquakes from these regressions with stress drop estimates
uncertainty in measuring the corner frequency is cubed to determine uncertainty in determined nation-wide for crustal earthquakes. The analysis is carried out for
the stress parameters. We develop a new approach using the low and high frequency JMA equivalent seismic intensity, PGA and PGV data. Our results indicate a
levels of spectral ratios taken between two closely located events recorded at the clear correlation of the between-event terms with stress drops estimates, however

on 09 October 2018
with the interesting effect of the appearence of two major families of events with cyrill.baumann@zurich.com; GIARDINI, D., Institute of Geophysics at the
widely different stress drop, yet similar range of between-event terms. This effect ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, domenico.giardini@erdw.ethz.ch
is in agreement with the observation made by Cotton et al. (2013), namely that
the resulting between-event variability is significantly smaller than the stress drop We present in this contribution the key results obtained by parameterising a near-
variability. The potential reasons for these results as well as their implication will field synthetic waveform dataset based on 360 dynamic rupture models (Baumann
be discussed in the presentation. and Dalguer, BSSA 2014) in the moment magnitude range 5 < MW < 7.2
relevant for seismic hazard studies in central and western Europe. The dataset
was originally compiled with the aim of: a) overcoming the difficulties posed
Macroseismic Intensity Distributions: Robust Indicators of Stress Drop?
by the paucity of near-field data in the calibration datasets of empirical ground-
HOUGH, S. E., US Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA USA, hough@usgs.gov
motion prediction equations (GMPEs); b) expanding our understanding of source-
Seismologists have adopted moment magnitude as the best estimate of earthquake dominated ground-motion phenomena; c) investigating the characteristics of
size. Moment magnitude, which depends on shear modulus, rupture area and “noise-free” long-period ground motions. In the present study we identify the
average slip, does not provide a direct measure of radiated energy, which depends main predictors of near-field synthetic ground-motions by analysing the variation
on rupture details. While ruptures are complicated, dynamic stress drop provides of peak ground-shaking parameters and response spectral ordinates (for vibration
a single parameter that, together with scalar moment, describes to first order the period T > 1 s) as a function of selected source parameters in addition to source-
level of radiated energy. Dynamic stress drop has been notoriously difficult to to-site path terms. Our goal is to define alternative functional forms for near-field
estimate, conventionally derived from estimates of corner frequency or pulse width, ground-motion prediction based on the synthetic data. Emphasis is placed on: i)
which are then cubed. Studies commonly reveal variability of over three orders the effect of faulting style, with special reference to the oversaturation (Baumann
of magnitude, from roughly 0.1-100 MPa; uncertainties are rarely estimated. As and Dalguer, BSSA 2014; Graizer et al., EQS 2013) of peak-motion amplitudes
initially suggested by Hanks and Johnston (1992), macroseismic intensities, which apparent from our synthetics at distances smaller than the depth to the top of
generally reflect shaking between roughly 1 and 8 Hz, depend relatively weakly on rupture; ii) hanging-wall and directivity effects; iii) the effect of stress drop on the
moment and relatively strongly on stress drop. The U.S. Geological Survey “Did simulated ground motions.
You Feel It?” (DYFI) system now collects and systematically interprets reports
from felt earthquakes, using an algorithm to estimate intensity values. I analyze
DYFI data for 70 recent 3.9 = Mw = 7.1 earthquakes in California, and suggest
that stress drop variability is captured robustly by variability in effective intensity
magnitude, MIE , defined to be the magnitude that best fits observed CDI data Characterizing Ground Motions and Active Faults in
given a regional intensity-prediction equation. I further define an intensity stress Urban Areas
drop, which, for the set of events analyzed, varies by a factor of Ÿ5 assuming Oral Session · Tuesday · 2:15 PM · 21 April · Ballroom G
intensities are controlled by acceleration. This suggests that the variability of
conventionally determined dynamic stress drop values is indeed over-estimated, Session Chairs: Lee Liberty and Thomas Pratt
and that intensity stress drop might provide a more robust estimate. Consideration
of intensity stress drop, in addition to use of conventional energy magnitude
Urban Hazard Map Pilot Study For The Charleston, SC Quadrangle
estimates rather than Mw, might be an effective way to improve characterization
CRAMER, C., Univ. of Memphis, Memphis, TN, ccramer@memphis.edu;
of ground motion.
JAUME, S., College of Charleston, Charleston, SC; LEVINE, N., College of
Charleston, Charleston, SC; BRAUD, A., College of Charleston, Charleston, SC;
Recipe for Predicting Strong Ground Motion from Subduction Earthquake CHAPMAN, M., Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA
Scenarios
MIYAKE, H., University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, hiroe@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp; A pilot study for developing urban hazard maps for the Charleston, SC area
KOKETSU, K., University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, koketsu@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp; was conducted in 2014 and supported by a grant from the U.S. Geological
IRIKURA, K., Aichi Institute of Technology, Nagoya, Japan, irikura@geor.or.jp Survey. Urban seismic and liquefaction hazard maps include the effects of local
geology. In our study we have used published and available geological, geotechnical,
Broadband source modeling for predicting ground motions is a key role for and geophysical information to develop an initial 3D community model for the
seismic hazard assessment. Irikura and Miyake (2011) proposed a recipe for Charleston quadrangle (Jaume et al, 2014). The model includes four alternative
predicting strong ground motion from crustal earthquake scenarios, where a Quaternary soil profiles and a deep reference profile for the Tertiary (Cooper
characterized source model consists of characterized asperities (Somerville et al., Marl) to the Paleozoic bedrock. The South Carolina dynamic soil properties of
1999) and a surrounding background area. Broadband time histories on the Zhang et al. (2005, 2008) are used in the soil response analysis. Equivalent linear
engineering bedrock are simulated by the hybrid technique: Long-period ground and nonlinear soil response computer programs were evaluated for use in the
motions are from a deterministic approach of numerical simulations with 3-D Charleston urban-hazard mapping project. Site amplification distributions for the
Green’s functions, and short-period ground motions are from a semi-empirical ˜850 m soil column as a function of hard-rock input ground motion indicate
approach of the stochastic Green’s function method (Kamae et al., 1998) with significant deamplification at strong ground motion levels due to nonlinear soil
1-D site response. The source of the recipe is rather simpler than sources in the behavior. Probabilistic seismic hazard maps are generated using the approach
SCEC broadband platform. The first concept of the recipe is that anybody can of Cramer (2003, 2011). 2%-in-50-year probabilistic seismic hazard maps show
reproduce the same source definitively. The second concept is easy to simulate hazard levels of 0.25-0.35g for peak acceleration, 0.30-0.55g for 0.2 s spectral
damaging rupture directivity pulses that enhance response spectra seen in the 1992 acceleration (Sa), and 0.3-0.50g for 1.0 s Sa. An 1886 M7.0 scenario indicates 0.2
Landers, 1994 Northridge, and 1995 Kobe earthquakes. The third concept is the g for PGA, 0.25 g for 0.2 s Sa, and 0.3-0.4 g for 1.0 s Sa. Seismic hazard seems
characterized source calibrated by empirical Green’s functions including realistic correlated with Quaternary soil thickness (0-30 m) over the Tertiary Marl. At short
complexity of velocity structure and site response. Recent megathrust earthquakes periods increasing thickness correlates with decreasing hazard due to nonlinear soil
motivated us to establish a recipe for subduction earthquake scenarios. Based on behavior. At long periods increasing thickness correlates with increasing hazard due
slip inversions, scaling of source parameters and acceleration source spectral levels, to soil resonance. The liquefaction probability curves of Heidari (2011) are used to
we propose candidates for the broadband source of subduction earthquakes: Single- generate liquefaction hazard maps using the probabilistic approach of Cramer et
corner or double-corner characterized source models. The latter model, where the al. (2008). LPI>5 maps indicate low hazard (<40%) in the core of the Charleston
size and stress drop for short-period source patches are respectively 1/N times and Peninsula (Wando) and high hazard (>70%) near the edges (Qal and fill).
N times of those for long-period source patches, worked to reproduce broadband
ground motions for megathrust earthquakes. The short-period source patches
Near-Surface, Site-Specific, and Frequency-Dependent Amplification of
partly superimpose on the long-period source patches for M8-class, then shift to the
Seismic Strong Ground Motions in Taipei Basin
edge of the long-period source patches for M9-class earthquakes with increasing N
YOUNG, B. A., The University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, bayoung6@
value.
memphis.edu; CHEN, K. C., Institute of Earth Sciences, Nangang, Taipei,
Taiwan, chenkc@earth.sinica.edu.tw; CHIU, J. M., The University of
Anatomy of Near-Field Ground-Shaking Generated by Dynamic Rupture Memphis, Memphis, TN, jerchiu@memphis.edu; LANGSTON, C. A.,
Simulations CERI/The University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, clangstn@memphis.edu
CAUZZI, C., Swiss Seismological Service, Zurich, Switzerland, carlo.cauzzi@
sed.ethz.ch; DALGUER, L., formerly at SED-ETHZ, presenlty at swissnuclear, Data from the Strong Motion Downhole Array (SMDA) in Taipei Basin
Olten, Switzerland, luis.dalguer@swissnuclear.ch; BAUMANN, C., formerly at are examined and modeled to study near-surface, site-specific and frequency-
SED-ETHZ, presenlty at Zurich Insurance Company Ltd, Zurich, Switzerland, dependent amplifications. The SMDA is a 3D seismic array—32 triggered

on 09 October 2018
seismometers span eight sites; each site hosts one seismometer at the surface with VS30 > 700 m/s as input ground motions, as well as the records during
and two to four down co-located boreholes at increasing depths. Taipei the 2001 Nisqually subduction zone earthquake from COSMOS. We use the
Basin, home to the capital of Taiwan, is a half-graben comprised of thick, MRDF nonlinear soil model (Phillips and Hashash 2009) that employs frequency-
unconsolidated sediments overlying the tertiary basement. The silt-dominated independent damping at very small strain combined with hysteretic damping at
Sungshan formation, the youngest of the four major formations that make large strains, as implemented in DEEPSOIL. Based on the results of 1-D site
up Taipei Basin, is widely thought to be a major contributor to site-specific response simulations, we propose soil amplification models for various spectral
amplifications resulting in higher peak ground acceleration inside the basin periods for Georgia Basin that are dependent on VS30 , PGA of input motions
compared to outside. Observations from numerous local and regional events (PGAr ) and soil thickness. We compare the proposed model with the NGA-
show that acute amplification occurs at the near-surface and is primarily limited West2 models for shallow crustal earthquakes and select subduction zone models.
to narrow frequency bands that are site-specific. These site-specific "dominant
frequencies" are consistent with a model of quarter-wavelength constructive
interference of seismic waves within a waveguide bounded by the base of the Geomorphic Mapping and Geophysical Studies to Assess the Seismic Hazard
Sungshan silts (SS) and the free surface. A basin model by Wang, et al. (2004) along the North Boqueron Bay-Punta Montalva Fault Zone: A Capable Fault
and geologic well logs show that no amplification occurs at depths beneath System In Southwestern Puerto Rico
ADAMES, R., University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, PR, angel.adames1@
the base of the SS. Measurements of vertical slowness of seismic waves of each
site’s dominant frequencies match the average velocity of the SS. Additionally, upr.edu; ASENCIO, E., University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, PR, eugenio.
synthetic seismograms produced at a site with a well-constrained shallow crustal asencio@upr.edu
and basin model both reproduce the observed amplification and illuminate higher Geomorphic mapping and geophysical studies were undertaken to better
frequency modes in the recorded data. When the SS are removed from the model, understand the seismic hazard along of the North Boquerón Bay-Punta Montalva
no amplification effect occurs. We conclude that acute site-specific, frequency- Fault Zone (NBB-PMFZ) in southwestern Puerto Rico. Surficial Geomorphic
dependent amplification of strong ground motions occurs at the near-surface in mapping was completed on hillshades created from newly acquired remotely
Taipei Basin largely due to constructive interference of seismic waves within the sensed 10m x 10m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) partially derived from LIDAR
SS, whose thickness differs beneath each observation site. imagery.(NBB-PMFZ) bisects the town of Guanica, Puerto Rico from Punta
Montalva (on the western part of the town) to Ensenada Las Pardas on the
Fault Kinematics Beneath the Southern Puget Lowland, Washington State: south coast and possibly continues offshore. Topographic scarps and lineaments
Strain Partitioning in the Northern Cascadia Forearc are present across the (NBB-PMFZ) and a displaced stream suggests left lateral
PRATT, T., USGS, Reston, VA, tpratt@usgs.gov; LIBERTY, L., Boise State displacement of about 200 meters. The fault zone is buried by late Quaternary
University, Boise, ID, lliberty@boisestate.edu deposits at a small alluvial fan valley encroached by Sierra Montalva on the
north and Monte de la Brea on the south. No fault scarps were observed on the
The Cascadia forearc of the northwest U.S. is the locus of deformation and upper hillshade maps along the alluvial fan valley. However, we characterized potential
plate seismicity caused by strain associated with subduction of the Juan de Fuca paleoseismic trenching sites of Near-Surface Faults along the buried segments of
oceanic plate and northward motion of the Coast Range Block. Beneath the the (NBB-PMFZ) in Guánica, P.R., by using high resolution ground penetration
southern Puget Lowland region of this forearc, fault geometries are only poorly radar (GPR). The most important structural and stratigraphic features observed
known, but Holocene coseismic subsidence suggests that active faults threaten the on the GPR profiles suggests the following: (1) a 4-m thick sequence Quaternary
urban areas of the southern Lowland. Here we present seismic reflection data and deposits are folded and fault-tilted within a 35-m wide deformed zone. (2) GPRl
new P-wave tomographic inversion results to constrain the along-strike geometry data provides a reasonable interpretation of the presence of coseismic surface
of the Tacoma fault at the southern margin of the Seattle uplift. The results show rupture on NBB-PMFZ and might be a potential site for trenching.
a variety of fault geometries and orientations, and the characterization of the faults
provides a basis for further studies. The Tacoma thrust fault beneath southwest
San Andreas Fault Surface Deformation Modeling for Protection of Southern
Puget Lowland is a well-defined, north-dipping reverse fault that is presumably a California Critical Infrastructure
backthrust to the Seattle fault because the latter has the greater displacement. Our DE LAMARE, R. G., Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, Los
models, based on the shallow fault geometry and the tomographic images, along Angeles, CA, gdelamare@mwdh2o.com; WELDON, R. J., University of Oregon,
with previous studies, suggest the two faults intersect at ˜20 km depth near the
Eugene, OR, ray@uoregon.edu; YULE, J. D., California State University,
location of the 1995 M5.0 Point Robinson earthquake, with the focal mechanism Northridge, CA, Doug.Yule@csun.edu; HAMMOND, W. C., University of
of the earthquake being consistent with rupture of either the Seattle or Tacoma Nevada, Reno, NV, whammond@unr.edu; FREEMAN, S. T., GeoPentech,
faults. Whereas the Tacoma fault appears as a narrow fault zone west of Puget
Inc., Santa Ana, CA, tom_freeman@geopentech.com; RODRIGUEZ, A.
Sound, the southern edge of the Seattle uplift beneath Puget Sound is delineated J., Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA,
by the broad southwest-dipping strata of the Rosedale monocline. Farther east, we ajrodriguez@mwdh2o.com
observe a series of west- and northwest-trending, large-scale folds. The northeast-
trending shoreline of southern Puget Sound south of Tacoma coincides with a The Colorado River Aqueduct (CRA), power transmission and communication
series of steeply-dipping, down to the west faults that may control the eastern edge lines, gas pipelines, railroads, and Interstate-10 all cross strands of the San
of the Rosedale Monocline. This variety of fault trends beneath the southern Puget Andreas Fault System (SAFS) in the San Gorgonio Pass (SGP) region, the
Lowland could reflect the differing strain directions from the Cascadia subduction most complex and least understood SAFS reach. This has led to concerns about
zone and northward motion of the Coast Range Block. potential long-term disruption of these critical facilities due to a forecasted Mw
7.8 earthquake and the risks imposed on the millions of people dependent on
Depth-dependent Soil Amplification Model for Georgia Basin in Greater these key infrastructure systems. During the design and construction of the
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada CRA (1933–1941) accommodations were provided to mitigate the risk posed by
KIM, B., Risk Management Solutions, Newark, CA, Byungmin.Kim@rms.com; active fault traces. Since then, there has been considerable debate over alternative
SEYHAN, E., Risk Management Solutions, Newark, CA, Emel.Seyhan@rms.com interpretations of the tectonic characteristics of this reach of the SAFS, likely
fault displacements, and surface deformations associated with future seismic events.
The Late Cretaceous Georgia basin (GB) requires special attention for the seismic Recently, Coulomb 3.3 and geodetic block motion models of the SGP were
design because of its convergent tectonic setting (the oceanic Juan de Fuca plate developed to aid in re-assessing the seismic vulnerability of the CRA. These models
subducts beneath the continental North America Plate) and the existence of were developed using accumulated geologic, seismologic, and geodetic data to
metropolitan Greater Vancouver. In this study, we develop a soil amplification estimate surface fault displacements and ground surface deformations that could
model for Georgia Basin in Greater Vancouver, Canada. Although there are occur during more frequent Mw˜6 to ˜6.5 and less frequent Mw ˜7 to Mw ˜7.8
site amplification studies in this region, they were all limited to shallow soil events. An unlikely Mw 8.5 scenario was modeled to envelop speculated larger
deposits and the effects of deep soil deposits that might have significant influence events. The results are consistent between the different modeling techniques and
on amplifications at long periods are not well investigated up until now. We available paleoseismic and geomorphic data. An analysis of the CRA hydraulics
conduct 1-D site response simulations using DEEPSOIL (Hashash et al. 2011) to using the model results indicates that 80% of the flow can be maintained following
investigate the effects of deep soil deposits on site amplifications. We construct a Mw ˜7.8 event and after initial repairs are complete. However, blockage of the
generic VS profiles based on more than 300 VS profiles measured by GEOSCAN CRA’s Whitewater Tunnel 2 is possible if a hanging-wall splay of the Garnet
Canada (Hunter et al. 1998). Modulus reduction and damping curves developed by Hill Fault is assumed to rupture with the full displacement. Working with a
Darendeli (2001) and Menq (2003) are assigned to the soil profiles. We consider team of experienced tunnel repair contractors, we determined that the simulated
four depths (i.e., 50, 100, 200, 300m) to account for depth variations within the tunnel damage could be repaired within 6 months given some practical pre-event
basin. We utilize shallow crustal earthquake records from NGA-West2 database preparation.

on 09 October 2018
Surface and Body Wave Active Source Imaging with a Multicomponent Land jpl.nasa.gov; PIERCE, M., Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, marpierc@
Streamer: a New Approach to Urban Earthquake Hazard Assessments iu.edu; WANG, J., Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, wang208@iu.edu
LIBERTY, L. M., Boise State University, Boise, ID, lliberty@boisestate.edu;
GRIBLER, G., Boise State University, Boise, ID, gabegribler@u.boisestate.edu Silent or seismically induced surface fractures threaten urban infrastructure at
remarkably small levels, certainly at few-cm levels (such as in the 1963 Baldwin
We present shear wave velocity profiles to a depth of 30-50 m, p-wave and s- Hills disaster) and perhaps at the few-mm level. Large-scale on-site monitoring
wave reflection images to 100-200 m depth, and p-wave refraction results for appears impractical due the large scales involved, while remote sensing has not
the upper 10-20 m that were simultaneously acquired on city streets with a been widely exploited. While we would not expect to find small-slip fractures in
48-channel multicomponent seismic land streamer and weight drop system. By optical or other remote-sensing surveys, radar interferometry provides a highly
integrating surface and body wave data, we can rapidly estimate subsurface shear sensitive method. This interferometry does not directly image fractures, but is
wave velocity distribution (Vs30) every few meters in profile while characterizing highly sensitive to differential surface displacements between areas adjacent to
the depositional and/or tectonic setting. Our approach allows us to assess whether fractures. Computer vision techniques (the Canny method) can make this process
and where ground motions may be amplified by low velocity sediments or nearly automated, but interferograms in urban areas contain artifacts that interfere
shallow bedrock conditions. Also, we can locate and characterize active faults, with this nonlinear edge detection process, notably incoherent subregions where
identify the geometry of key stratigraphic boundaries, and identify zones of high the desired signal is ill-defined. We present improved preparation techniques
liquefaction potential by comparing shear wave and p-wave velocity (Vp/Vs) using bilinear interpolation and demonstrate their utility in surface fracture
measurements. The utilization of a land streamer allows us to acquire high quality characterization in desert, suburban and urban areas of southern California.
near surface seismic data with acquisition rates a few km/day. Multicomponent
data processing allows us to capture the elliptical Rayleigh wave particle motion UAVSAR Observation of Active Structures Associated with the 2014 M 5.1 La
to improve dispersion curve picks, to calculate horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) Habra Earthquake
spectral ratios, and perform component rotation to optimize p-wave and s-wave DONNELLAN, A., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
reflected signals. We show example data from a number of Idaho communities andrea.donnellan@jpl.nasa.gov; PARKER, J. W., California Institute of
with diverse geological settings where historical earthquakes have been recorded, Technology, Pasadena, CA, Jay.W.Parker@jpl.nasa.gov; GRANT LUDWIG, L.,
where a complex shear wave velocity distribution is present, and where shallow University of California, Irvine, CA; RUNDLE, J. B., University of California,
bedrock is common. We also compare our field results to numerical models to Davis, CA; HAUKSSON, E., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
show the wavefield effects of a high velocity road surface layer and how we ehauksson@gmail.com
utilize changes in elliptical surface wave motion to constrain shear wave velocity
models. We offer a data processing approach to multicomponent analysis and The March 28, 2014 M 5.1 La Habra earthquake epicentral region was observed
conclude that our land streamer system is a robust tool for earthquake site with UAVSAR two months before the earthquake and one week following
characterization. the earthquake. The UAVSAR products show uplift over the mainshock and
northward motion of the West Coyote Hills. Northward horizontal motion
of the West Coyote Hills was purely aseismic. No aftershocks occurred within
Near-Surface Fault Trace Identification Using Guided-Wave PGV and them. Inversion for fault slip indicates a main rupture plane consistent with the
Tomographic Vp/Vs Ratios seismicity. A second shallow low-angle fault plane fits the UAVSAR observations
CATCHINGS, R. D., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, catching@ for the West Coyote Hills. The numerous water pipe breaks in the West
usgs.gov; GOLDMAN, M. R., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, Coyote Hills are consistent with deformation gradients see in the UAVSAR
goldman@usgs.gov; RYMER, M. J., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, interferograms. A fault kink band at Trojan Way, more than one fault dimension
mrymer@usgs.gov; SICKLER, R. R., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, southwest of the mainshock, was clearly indicated in the UAVSAR data and
rsickler@usgs.gov; CRILEY, C. J., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, located in the field. Coseismic GPS displacements are larger farther field than
ccriley@usgs.gov; CHAN, J. H., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, would be expected and may be explained by a low angle decollement north of the
jchan@usgs.gov earthquake rupture.
The determination of near-surface fault locations and geometries is important

because assessment of ground rupture, strong shaking, geologic slip rates, and
rupture histories occurs at shallow depths. Locating such fault traces can be difficult Structural Health Monitoring and Earthquake Damage
where high sedimentation rates and long repeat intervals obscure the geomorphic
evidence. Such buried fault traces can pose considerable hazards to nearby buildings
Detection in Structures
and infrastructure. Within major fault zones, individual fault traces can be Oral Session · Tuesday · 8:30 AM · 21 April · Ballroom H
distributed over a zone ranging in width from meters to several kilometers. To Session Chairs: Maria Todorovska and Philippe Gueguen
more fully assess the seismic hazards and slip history of fault zones, all near-surface
fault traces should be identified and evaluated with paleoseismic methods. For most
fault zones, however, it is impractical to construct long (several km) paleoseismic Damage Detection in High-rise Buildings Using Dense Arrays of Seismic
trenches to evaluate the entire width of suspected surface-rupture zones or to Sensors
evaluate fault structures at depths greater than a few meters. A more practical MASSARI, A., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, amassari@
approach is to characterize fault zones using geophysical methods, followed by caltech.edu; KOHLER, M., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena,
targeted paleoseismic trenching. However, many geophysical methods encounter CA, kohler@caltech.edu; CLAYTON, R., California Institute of Technology,
difficulty when site conditions are less than ideal. In multiple recent studies, Pasadena, CA, clay@gps.caltech.edu; HEATON, T., California Institute of
we have utilized two highly effective geophysical methods, Vp/Vs tomographic Technology, Pasadena, CA, heaton@caltech.edu; GUY, R., California Institute
imaging and peak ground velocity (PGV) measurements of fault-zone guided of Technology, Pasadena, CA, rguy@gps.caltech.edu
waves, to locate near-surface fault traces. Our studies show that near-surface fault
traces are typically characterized by high Vp/Vs ratios (˜4 to 10) and guided- The Community Seismic Network has recently added a floor-by-floor
wave PGV values that are 5 to 20 times greater than background PGV values. accelerometer array in a 50+ story building in downtown Los Angeles. We
These methods, if routinely applied prior to paleoseismic trenching, better enable have also developed a linear finite element model for the building using the
evaluation of the slip history and rates and estimates of surface-rupture and ground- original construction documents. The model is being used as a proxy to perform
shaking potential for the entire fault zone. computational damage detection experiments. To vet the model, the predicted
accelerations were compared to the array data for recent small events, and the
results show excellent agreement in both the time and frequency domain. This
UAVSAR Remote Sensing Method for Determining Few-Mm Surface Fracture particular building has a dual system consisting of a concentrically braced steel
Slip. frame core with continuous outrigger moment frames. To simulate damage, we
PARKER, J. W., Jet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology, have implemented various forms of linear stiffness changes in the structure to
Pasadena, CA, Jay.W.Parker@jpl.nasa.gov; DONNELLAN, A., Jet mimic changes caused by a large seismic event. This includes multi-level brace
Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, element failure mechanisms as well as more discrete single-floor damage scenarios,
Andrea.Donnellan@jpl.nasa.gov; GLASSCOE, M. T., Jet Propulsion for which blind testing has shown sufficient resolution in the computational
Laboratory/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, Margaret. data to localize the damage to a single floor of the building. We are now in the
T.Glasscoe@jpl.nasa.gov; STOUGH, T. M., Jet Propulsion Laboratory/ process of testing various techniques to detect the changes with the dense array.
California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, Timothy.M.Stough@ These techniques include deconvolution with pre-earthquake reference events,

on 09 October 2018
radon transforms, and the detection of scattered waves. For a particular scheme building (Millikan library) and compare the results with those obtained by fitting
to be successful, it must demonstrate that the detected anomaly is above the noise a beam models.
level that we measure with the seismic array. This program offers several steps
forward in the fields of structural health monitoring and earthquake damage System Identification, Model Calibration, and Damage Detection in Layered
detection including: Demonstration of what low-cost arrays can accomplish, with Systems by Using Transfer Matrix Formulation
the aim of making large-scale structural monitoring more practical and affordable. SAFAK, E., Bogazici University, Uskudar, Istanbul, Turkey, erdal.safak@
Verification of linear elastic models for low-amplitude seismic input through boun.edu.tr; KOCAKAPLAN, S., University of Texas, Austin, TX,
proper modeling strategies. Implementation of various imaging techniques to kocakaplansedef88@gmail.com; KAYA, Y., University of British Columbia,
isolate damage location to a single floor which can aid inspectors after a large scale Vancouver, BC, Canada, kayaya@mail.ubc.ca
event.
In Earthquake Engineering, layered systems are those whose vibrations can be
Identification of Dynamic Characteristics of a Tall Building: Modal Analysis formulated as a one dimensional wave propagation problem, such as tall buildings
and Seismic Interferometry and layered soil media. Typically, the monitoring of such systems involves
FLETCHER, J. B., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, jfletcher@usgs.gov; installation of sensors at a limited number of locations, such as specific floors
ULUSOY, H. S., T.Y. Lin International Group, San Francisco, CA, in buildings or particular depths in layered soil media. This paper introduces a
hulusoy@usgs.gov; KALKAN, E., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, methodology for the identification, calibration, and damage detection of such
CA, ekalkan@usgs.gov; WEN, W., Harbin University, Harbin, China, systems from their vibration records. The methodology is based on the transfer
wenweiping.hit@gmail.com; BAKER, L. M., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, matrix formulation of dynamic response, and requires that vibration time histories
CA, baker@usgs.gov are known at every interface of the layered system (i.e., at every floor for buildings
and every layer interface for layered soil media). Since this is not the case in practical
Recently, the U.S. Geological Survey and the California Geological Survey applications, we first introduce a methodology to estimate vibration time histories
cooperated on instrumenting a 62-story tower in San Francisco—the tallest at non-instrumented layer interfaces from those recorded at the instrumented
all-residential building in California. This tower, whose design is based on interfaces, based on the assumption that the mode shapes of the layered system
performance-based seismic design including computer simulations, incorporates can be approximated as a linear combination of the mode shapes of a shear beam
engineering features such as buckling-restrained braces (BRBs), outrigger columns and a bending beam. Knowing the vibration time histories at every interface, we
and a tuned liquid damper to reduce the building’s dynamic response to wind and then present a new approach to identify the system based on the transfer matrix
earthquakes. The outrigger columns are coupled to the ductile concrete core by formulation of its dynamic response. It is shown that top-to-bottom spectral-
BRBs at two locations to stabilize the structure. The 50,000 gallon water tank at the ratios of accelerations at each layer are not influenced by any changes in the
top of the building acts as a tuned liquid damper to lessen sway due to wind loads. characteristics of the layers below. Thus, starting from the top layer, the individual
The seismic recording system has 72 uni-axial accelerometers that are deployed on frequency of each layer, and consequently the stiffness of each layer (assuming
26 different levels of the building. The recording system is broadband and has high that the mass of the layer is known or estimated) can be determined uniquely by
dynamic range. Modes of vibration were determined using acceleration data from matching the dominant frequencies of the spectral ratios. In addition to system
the Aug. 26, 2014 South Napa earthquake (M6.0, R = 47 km). The modes are the identification, the methodology presented can also be used for model calibration
eigenvalues of a cross spectral matrix at each frequency, and show a fundamental and damage detection. Numerical examples are presented to confirm the validity
frequency at about 0.27 Hz. The mode shapes are the corresponding eigenvectors. of the approach by using real and simulated records.
Five modes are apparent up to about 6 Hz. These are similar to modes determined
from ambient noise, but there are differences. For example, ambient noise show Development of Regional Earthquake Early Warning System with Structural
torsional modes whereas the data from the South Napa earthquake reveal bending Health Monitoring function toward Real-time Earthquake Information
modes only. Shear wave propagation throughout the building has been analyzed Navigation
using a deconvolution algorithm as well as cross correlations. The data are filtered MOTOSAKA, M., Tohoku University, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan, motosaka@
to isolate energy near the fundamental mode. Cross correlation results in smoother irides.tohoku.ac.jp; OHNO, S., Tohoku University, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan,
curves of travel times of shear waves propagating up the building. These curves ohno@irides.tohoku.ac.jp; MITSUJI, K., Yamagata University, Yamagata, Japan,
indicate relatively low velocities (low stiffness) below the lowest BRBs (below 28th mitu@e.yamagata-u.ac.jp; WANG, X., Tohoku University, Sendai, Miyagi,
floor), and higher values further up the structure. Similar curves, using broadband Japan, wang@irides.tohoku.ac.jp
data, can be seen in stacks of cross correlations using ambient data.
The authors have developed an integrated regional earthquake early warning
(EEW) system having on-line structural health monitoring (SHM) function,
Wave Propagation in Buildings as Periodic Structures: Timoshenko Beam
in Miyagi prefecture, Japan. The system makes it possible to provide more
with Slabs Model and its Application to Structural System Identification and
accurate, reliable and immediate earthquake information by combining the
Health Monitoring
national (JMA/NIED) EEW system, based on advanced real-time communication
TODOROVSKA, M. I., Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA,
technology. The EEW/SHM system comprises high sensitive sensors, data logger
mtodorov@usc.edu; OZMUTLU, A., Namik Kemal Univ., Tekirdag, Turkey,
with variable sampling rate/variable packet length, which is installed in each public
aydin.ozmutlu@gmail.com; EBRAHIMIAN, M., Univ. of Southern California,
building and software for EEW and SHM. All observation data are transferred
Los Angeles, CA, mebrahim@usc.edu
to the data server at IRIDeS, Tohoku University through Internet. The system
Simple beam models have been useful for understanding of wave propagation in development started from 2008 and got some important data during the 2008
building structures, as well as for structural system identification in the longer Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake and also the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake.
period range, where such models are valid. Such models are useful for detecting After the huge earthquake, the system extended to 15 buildings surrounding
overall changes in the structural stiffness. Detecting localized damage, however, Miyagi prefectural area. In the SSA session, the principal author will present
requires fitting more detailed models. The simplest model is shear beam, in which current status of system development and extension including basic conception.
wave propagation is not dispersive or lightly dispersive due to damping. Such Then some examples of the amplitude dependent dynamic characteristics based
models may be appropriate for frame structures. Next in complexity are models that on observation data during the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and also those
allow for bending deformation in addition to shear, such as, e.g., the Timoshenko before and after the huge earthquakes. Finally the author insists necessity of
beam model. In such a model, the phase velocity depends on frequency and two ŚNavigationŠ based on the EEW/SHM system based on the combination of the
propagating modes exist beyond the critical frequency. Such a model may be observation data and structural analysis for the next generation earthquake disaster
appropriate e.g. for buildings with shear walls and for some tall structures. We have prevention system.
considered in our past work uniform and piecewise uniform shear and Timoshenko
beam models, where the layers represent group of floors. Next model in complexity Predetermined Earthquake Damage Scenarios (PEDS) for Structural Health
is a Timoshenko beam with floor slabs in which the scattering of waves from the Monitoring
slabs is an additional cause for dispersion. We use such a model as a step forward TRIFUNAC, M. D., University of Southern California, Los Angeles CA,
towards understanding the wave dispersion in real structures for progressively trifunac@usc.edu
shorter wavelengths. We derive the dispersion relation considering the building as a
one dimensional periodic structure, and analyze the pass and stop bands as function It is shown that the damage scenarios for site-specific building models, responding
of the model dimensionless parameters. We also analyze the added complexity in in highly nonlinear manner to strong earthquake ground-motion pulses, can be
the transfer function, which may be helpful in interpreting the response of full-scale used in real-time health-monitoring systems. When it can be shown that such
buildings. Finally, we use this model for system identification of a 9-story full-scale predictions produce robust results and are not sensitive to the details of the

on 09 October 2018
complete time history of strong ground motion, the PEDS method can produce System Identification of a 5-Storied Steel-Frame Structure based on Natural
reliable predictions of the location(s) and the degree(s) of structural damage in Frequency Deviation with Known Mass Loading
essentially real time. It is shown that for a full-scale building, damaged during HATAKEYAMA, N., Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan, hatake.hatake.
the 1994 Northridge earthquake in California, PEDS based on one-dimensional hatake7@gmail.com; KAWASE, H., Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan, kawase@
wave propagation in the layered building model would have produced accurate and zeisei.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp; MATSUSHIMA, S., Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan,
realistic predictions of damage. In contrast to the vibrational health-monitoring matsushima@zeisei.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp
methods that track changes in the frequency and stiffness of the characteristic
functions, PEDS methods provide invaluable information for spatial and temporal To predict a response of a structure during an earthquake and to monitor any
identification of damage. Key words: Earthquake damage scenarios in buildings, resulting damage of that structure after a large earthquake, we need to identify
strain localization on buildings, structural health monitoring, nonlinear waves in the physical parameters (mass and stiffness) of the target structure in advance.
buildings. However, it is not easy to directly estimate the real mass and stiffness as a simplified
(equivalent) dynamic model since structures have many nonstructural elements.
In this study, first we observe microtremors (ambient vibrations) on each story
Nonlinear Dynamics Induced in a Structure By Seismic and Environmental of a five storied steel frame structure, and obtain the natural frequencies up to
Loading fifth modes. Then by loading an added mass of pre-determined amount (3 tons)
GUEGUEN, P., Université de Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France, philippe. to each story of the structure, we observe deviations of natural frequencies as
gueguen@ujf-grenoble.fr; JOHNSON, P. A., Los Alamos National Laboratory, independent information. Using these six cases of natural frequencies we identified
Los Alamos, NM, paj@lanl.gov; ROUX, P., Université de Grenoble Alpes, physical parameters of each story. The experiment was conducted from October
Grenoble, France, philippe.roux@ujf-grenoble.fr to December 2012 by putting weight first on the roof floor only, then move to
the fifth floor, then to the fourth floor, and so on, until on the second floor
Seismic wave perturbations, if strain amplitude is sufficiently large, can induce and remove entirely. In each mass loading experiment we measured microtremors
deformation in solids. The effect is a transient-induced disequilibrium, where and identified natural frequencies up to fifth modes by using conventional FFT
the material modulus decreases and the dissipation increases, and which may technique. Since we did independent measurement six times, we have 30 target
become permanent if deformations are large or frequent. Materials also commonly natural frequencies. First we used a simple shear spring-mass model (10 parameters)
exhibit a fascinating, slow dynamical recovery from disequilibrium to the original to reproduce observed natural frequencies but it turned out to be impossible to
or a new equilibrium of the system’s elastic properties when strong seismic explain observed values within a reasonable range of parameters. Then we assume
deformations terminate, observed both in the laboratory [Guyer and Johnson, a bending-shear spring model (15 parameters), together with the assumption of all
1998; Johnson and Sutin, 2005] and at the scale of the Earth’s crust [Peng the rotational inertia to be zero, and use the so-called hybrid heuristic method to
and Ben-Zion, 2006; Karabulut and Bouchon, 2007; Brenguier et al., 2008; Wu determine these parameters. As a result we can obtain reasonable parameters that
et al., 2009]. Between laboratory and crustal scales, we studied an intermediate can reproduce observed natural frequencies quite well. Modal shapes at resonant
scaled system: a civil engineering structure. Frequency and damping control its frequencies of observed microtremors are also well reproduced despite of not using
dynamic response and monitoring these values therefore enables the assessment them as constraints.
of rapid damage of the elastic nonlinear response of the structure, after an
extreme event [Clinton et al., 2006; Michel and Gueguen, 2010], or in a
situation of slow deterioration due to ageing [Kashima and Kitagawa, 2006]. In Non-Stationary vs. Nonlinear Effects Recorded During Earthquakes on
this contribution, the variations of elastic properties under dynamic and quasi- Monitored Buildings
static loading of several buildings are described related to the health of the DITOMMASO, R., Basilicata University, Potenza, Italy, roccoditommaso@
structures and providing new insights on the physical origin of frequency and hotmail.it; MUCCIARELLI, M., CRS-OGS, Trieste, Italy, mmucciarelli@
damping variations observed in building during earthquakes and environmental inogs.it; PONZO, F. C., Basilicata University, Potenza, Italy, felice.ponzo@
loading. unibas.it
Analyses of changes in the fundamental frequency of a building is considered

Application of Rotation Rate Sensors in Structural Health Monitoring of the simplest way to detect the onset of structural and non-structural damage.
Building Structures Several authors in the past proposed that the difference in periods that can be
ZEMBATY, Z., Opole University of Technology, Opole, Poland, z.zembaty@ observed among ambient noise, and earthquake weak-motion measurements, can
po.opole.pl; BOBRA, P., Opole University of Technology, Opole, Poland, also be attributed to transient non-linearity due to reversible modification of
p.bobra@po.opole.pl; KOKOT, S., Opole University of Technology, Opole, the building characteristic (e.g. the degree of coupling between frame and infills
Poland, s.kokot@po.opole.pl in reinforced concrete buildings). Damage to any structure alters its dynamic
properties; dynamic monitoring techniques enable the identification of damage
In some areas of modern Structural Health Monitoring (SHM), e.g. for the familiar by comparing key-parameters before and after the seismic excitation. Short term
civil engineering structures made of reinforced concrete or masonry, it is not variations of fundamental frequency observed during a seismic event can be
possible to monitor damages in form of simple, typical, local stiffness losses as attributed to either non-linearity (i.e. damage) or non-stationary phenomenon (a
is usually assumed in modal analysis of structures. Instead more difficult tasks particular combination of input and response). This fact may lead to erroneous
need to be undertaken to formally "re-construct” of spatially distributed stiffness conclusions attributing variations in frequency due to non-stationary phenomena
variations. Since, for some time, novel techniques emerged, which allow to measure to the presence of structural damage. Practically, it is possible to confuse
not only translations but also rotations [1], there is a possibility to test the new, apparent fundamental frequency variation, due to non-stationary effects, with real
rotation rate sensors by acquiring structural rotations, which may appear during fundamental frequency variations due to nonlinear effects. Then, it is necessary to
seismic vibrations [2]. Some, early stage, experiments proved particular efficiency provide simple criteria to discriminate non-stationary from nonlinear phenomena.
of these new measuring techniques [3, 4]. The presentation planned for the 2015 An innovative approach based on numerical and experimental experiences is
SSA Meeting in Pasadena will be devoted to report the latest results of small proposed: simple thresholds based on the amplitude of the fundamental frequency
scale, laboratory experiments aiming at further investigations of the efficiency of variation. Further work must be performed in order to fully validate this kind of
rotation rate sensors in SHM. In particular the latest laboratory measurements approach and to completely define these threshold for various structural forms and
of obtaining dynamic strains at the beam surface using rotation rate sensors will building typologies.
be presented. References [1] Lee W.H.K., Celebi M., Todorovska M.I. and Igel
H. Introduction to the Special Issue on Rotational Seismology and Engineering
Applications, BSSA., vol. 99, 2009, pp. 945–957. [2] Gicev V., Trifunac M. D.,
Rotations in a shear-beam model of a seven-story building caused by nonlinear Expanding our Understanding of Explosion
waves during earthquake excitation, Structural Control & Health Monitoring, Phenomenology Through Analysis and Modeling of
2009, vol. 16, pp. 460–82 [3] Zembaty Z., Kokot S. and Bobra P., Application of Seismic Observations and Complementary Data Types
rotation rate sensors in an experiment of stiffness ’reconstruction’, Smart Materials
& Structures, 2013, vol. 22, doi:10.1088/0964-1726/22/7/077001 [4] Schreiber Oral Session · Tuesday · 2:15 PM · 21 April · Ballroom H
K. U., Velikoseltsev A., Carr A. J., and Franco-Anaya R. , The Application of Fiber Session Chairs: Robert Abbott, Charlotte Rowe and Brian
Optic Gyroscopes for the Measurement of Rotations in Structural Engineering, Stump
BSSA, vol. 99, May 2009, pp. 1207-1214

on 09 October 2018
Effect of Geomechanical Properties Anisotropy on the Near-field and the Far- use the Abaqus Coupled Euler-Lagrange (CEL) code which allows simultaneous
field Seismic Responses due to Underground Explosions solving of an Eulerian domain to model the high-deformation source region with
VOROBIEV, O. Y., LLNL, Livermore, CA, vorobiev1@llnl.gov; EZZEDINE, S. a Lagrangian domain that includes the complex geology with explicit contact for
M., LLNL, Livermore, CA; ANTOUN, T. H., LLNL, Livermore, CA; GLENN, modeling joint behavior. Various simulations and comparisons to data provide
L. A., LLNL, Livermore, CA insight into the possible source of theoretically unexpected shear phenomena.
The effect of joints on radial shock propagation is demonstrated by comparing
The main goal of this study is to understand the nature of the shear motions results from both 1-D and 3-D simulations to recorded data. The simulations rely
recorded in the near-field at depth. Several hypotheses have been proposed: 1) on laboratory-determined response characteristics of both intact core and jointed
sliding on the joints, 2) wave conversion at the material boundaries and 3) non specimens. The joint model includes both normal compliance and tangential
sphericity of the source. We suggest another mechanism to be responsible for friction. The tangential model includes an “elastic slip” component to define small
shear wave generation that is polarization due to anisotropy of geomechanical recoverable joint displacement that can occur before exceeding Coulomb resistance
and geophysical properties. We have performed several high resolution simulations limits. This facilitates a build-up of shear energy which accommodates a sudden
of the source region using a massively parallel Lagrangian hydrocode GEODYN- release of the joints during the unloading phase after passage of the compressive
L. The simulations mimic the geological conditions of underground explosions shock wave. We hypothesize this to be a mechanism for introducing unexpected
conducted recently in jointed rock outcrop as part of the Source Physics shear content into regional seismic data that is not explained by theoretical
Experiment (SPE) campaign and the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). explosive source considerations. This abstract is approved for release under LA-
Wave polarization and splitting is a phenomenon that has received a lot of UR-14-29583.
attention primarily because of its connection with vertically aligned joints and
geological anisotropy within formations. In this study however, we distinguish
between the intrinsic anisotropy in the geomechanical material properties and the Numerical Investigation of the Impact of the Geological and Geomechanical
extrinsic (effective) anisotropy due to joints that are likely smaller that the seismic Properties on the Seismo-Acoustic Responses of Underground Explosions
wavelengths of interest, yet they effectively induce anisotropy in the geomechanical EZZEDINE, S. M., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore,
property of the medium. However, joints with length scale similar to the seismic CA, ezzedine1@llnl.gov; VOROBIEV, V. Y., Lawrence Livermore National
wavelengths of interest are explicitly depicted in the numerical simulation as it Laboratory, Livermore, CA, vorobiev1@llnl.gov; RODGERS, A., Lawrence
has been done in the previous works. We explored the effect of joint orientations Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, rodgers7@llnl.gov; PITARKA,
and their density on the overall development of the source itself and shear wave A., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, pitarka1@llnl.gov;
polarization and motions in the vicinity of the source. We compare our nonlinear GLENN, L. A., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA,
hydrocode results in the elastic region with numerical simulation using a high-order glenn5@llnl.gov; ANTOUN, T. H., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,
elastic anisotropic wave propagation code, SW4. Livermore, CA, antoun1@llnl.gov
We have performed 3D high resolution simulations of underground explosions

Modeling Near-Source Phenomenology with a Novel Visco-Plastic conducted recently in jointed rock outcrop as part of the SPE compaign being
Continuum Model and its Implications on Close-In Seismic Observables conducted at NNSS. The main goal of the current study is to investigate the
ROUGIER, E., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, effects of the structural & geomechanical properties on the spall phenomena due to
erougier@lanl.gov; KNIGHT, E. E., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los underground explosions and its subsequent effect on the seismo-acoustic signature.
Alamos, NM, knighte@lanl.gov; YANG, X., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Two parametric studies have been undertaken to assess the impact of different 1)
Los Alamos, NM, xyang@lanl.gov; PATTON, H. J., Los Alamos National conceptual geological models including a single layer and two layers model, with
Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, patton@lanl.gov and without joints and with and without varying geomechanical properties, and 2)
depth of bursts of the explosions and explosion yields. Through these investigations
The Source Physics Experiments (SPE) is funded by the U.S. Department of we have explored not only the near-field response of the explosions but also the far-
Energy at the National Nuclear Security Site and is composed of a series of field responses of the seismic and the acoustic signatures. The near-field simulations
underground explosive tests designed to study the generation and propagation were conducted using the Eulerian and Lagrangian codes, GEODYN and
of seismic energy from underground explosions in hard rock media, in this case: GEODYN -L, respectively, while the far-field seismic simulations were conducted
granite. Until now, three tests (SPE-1, -2 and -3) with yields ranging from 100 to using the elastic wave propagation code, WPP, and the acoustic response using
1000 kg have been conducted. The generation and propagation of seismic waves the Kirchhoff-Helmholtz-Rayleigh time-dependent approximation code, KHR.
is heavily influenced by the damage mechanisms occurring at different ranges from Though a series of simulations we have recorded the velocity field histories a) at
the explosive source. These mechanisms include pore crushing, compressive (shear) the ground surface for the acoustic simulations, and 2) on a source-box for the
damage, joint damage, spallation and fracture and fragmentation. Understanding seismic simulations. We first analyzed the SPE3 experimental data and simulated
these mechanisms and how they interact with each other is essential to the results, then simulated SPE4-prime and SPE5-7 to anticipate their seismo-acoustic
interpretation of close-in seismic observable characteristics. Recent observations responses given uncertainties. We have extended the parametric study to include
demonstrate that, for relatively small and shallow chemical explosions in granite other geological settings such alluvial formations. These parametric studies enabled
cavity formation is not the main mechanism responsible for the release of seismic us 1) investigating the geotechnical and geophysical key parameters that impact
moment. Shear dilatancy (bulking occurring as a consequence of compressive the seismo-acousticresponses of underground explosions and 2) ranking through a
damage) of the medium around the source has been proposed as an alternative gloglobal sensitivity analysis the most important key parameters to be characterized
mechanism to explain the seismic moment release observed in the experiments. In on site to minimize uncertainties in predictions and discrimination.
this work, the interaction between cavity formation and bulking is investigated via a
series of computer simulations for the SPE-2 event. The simulations are conducted
using a newly developed material model, called AZ_frac. AZ_frac is a continuum- Seismoacoustics of Explosions at Varying Scaled Depth of Burial
based-visco-plastic strain-rate-dependent material model. One of its key features BOWMAN, D. C., The University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill,
is its ability to describe continuum fracture processes, while properly handling NC, daniel.bowman@unc.edu; LEES, J. M., The University of North
anisotropic material characteristics. The implications of the near source numerical Carolina , Chapel Hill, NC, jonathan.lees@unc.edu; TADDEUCCI,
results on the close-in seismic quantities, such as reduced displacement potentials J., Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy,
and source spectra are presented. jacopo.taddeucci@ingv.it; GRAETTINGER, A. H., University at Buffalo,
Buffalo, NY, ahgraett@buffalo.edu; SONDER, I., University at Buffalo, Buffalo,
NY, ingomark@buffalo.edu; VALENTINE, G., University at Buffalo, Buffalo,
Shear Release from Explosive Loading at a Jointed Test Site NY, gav4@buffalo.edu
STEEDMAN, D. W., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM;
BRADLEY, C. R., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM Ground, airborne, and pole mounted infrasound and audio microphones recorded
the acoustic wave field from thirty two small (<0.5 kg) underground explosions
The Source Physics Experiments (SPE) is a series of various sized Sensitized Heavy with varying scaled depth of burial (SDOB). Near-epicenter accelerometers linked
ANFO (SHANFO) explosive sources detonated in a borehole in jointed granite. ground motion to acoustic signals, and a network of seismometers quantified
The cylinder-shaped shots are grouted in the borehole to couple the energy to energy partitioning between the atmosphere and the solid Earth. High speed
the rock. We demonstrate a suite of numerical simulations with a high-fidelity imagery constrained the temporal evolution of the blasts and also provided
site model that mimics the near-field velocity environment. This includes explicit estimates of ground acceleration. Three acoustic regimes were identified: ground
modeling of the cylindrical explosive and the grout-filled borehole as well as motion dominated (high SDOB), gas released dominated (low SDOB), and a
explicit modeling of the site joint sets. This approach is accommodated through transition zone between the two that was highly sensitive to small changes in

on 09 October 2018
SDOB. Spall slapdown signatures exist on accelerograms and acoustic records for address this challenge, we recorded coincident acoustic, seismic and radio-
certain blasts. Acoustic signals decreased in frequency and amplitude with each frequency emissions during the above-ground detonation of ˜2-12 kg solid
successive explosion at the same location and SDOB, suggesting that changes charges and assessed how waveform data could be fused to increase explosion-
in substrate properties also affect sound production. Very little source-related screening capability. Our data provided identifiable explosion signatures that
directional acoustic radiation was observed on horizontal and vertical microphone we implemented as template-events in multichannel correlation detectors to
arrays. Results from this study are relevant to yield and depth of burial estimation. search for similar signatures. However, we found that even these highly sensitive
We also discuss implications for volcanic eruption dynamics inferred from acoustic correlation detectors missed explosive events when applied separately to data
recordings in the field. streams heavilty contaminated with noise and clutter. By then adding the p-
values of these statistics through Fisher’s combined probability test, we correctly
Effect of the Cavity Gas Volume on Seismic Coupling for Underground identified the explosion signals at thresholds consistent with the false alarm rates
Explosions of the correlation detectors. This resulting Fisher test thereby provided high-
STROUJKOVA, A., Weston Geophysical Corp., Lexington, MA, ana@ probability detections, zero false alarms, and higher theoretical detection capability.
westongeo.com We conclude that inclusion of these fusion methods in routine monitoring
operations will likely lower both detection thresholds for small explosions, while
The effect of the amount of gaseous by-products from small chemical explosions reducing false attribution rates.
on seismic source signatures is investigated using the data collected during the
New England Damage Experiments (NEDE) in Barre, VT. Different types of Exploring Correlation Methods of Identifying Explosions
explosives used for blasting have various densities, burn rates and different energy WALTER, W. R., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA,
content per unit mass. In addition, they release gaseous by-products characterized walter5@llnl.gov; FORD, S. R., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,
by different amount and chemical composition. Analysis of the NEDE data Livermore, CA, ford17@llnl.gov; DODGE, D., Lawrence Livermore National
reveals that the spectral characteristics of the P-waves from these explosions Laboratory, Livermore, CA, dodge1@llnl.gov; PYLE, M., Lawrence Livermore
depend on the volume of non-condensable gases released in the cavity during National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, pyle4@llnl.gov; HAUK, T., Lawrence
explosive detonation. The amount of gas depends on the chemical composition Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, hauk1@llnl.gov
of the explosives as well as on the presence of other compounds in and around
the cavity that can vaporize or chemically decompose during the explosion (e.g. A number of recent studies have shown the tremendous potential of seismic
water, limestone). The low-frequency seismic amplitudes show strong correlation waveform correlation for lowering detection, location and identification
with the amount of gas produced by the explosions, which can be explained by thresholds for explosion monitoring (e.g. Schaff et al., 2012, Gibbons and Ringdal,
higher steady-state pressure in the cavity and subsequently higher static value of 2012; Zhang and Wen, 2015; Dodge and Walter, 2015). We show that in the
the reduced displacement potential. The amplitudes in the high-frequency band case of Source Physics Experiment (SPE) explosions, templates at local and near
around the corner frequencies (overshoot amplitudes) demonstrate correlation regional stations can detect, locate and identify very small explosions. What is
with the explosive yield. Thus, the increase in the low-frequency amplitudes and the much less well defined, and is an area of current research, is when and how these
corresponding decrease in overshoot parameter signify the increase of the amount methods break down. For example it is well known that as the template event
of cavity gas released during the detonation. and target events are increasingly separated spatially, their correlation coefficient
will diminish as the difference in the Green function between the two events
grows larger. This is related to the event separation in terms of wavelength, the
International Monitoring System Correlation Detection at the North Korean heterogeneity of the Earth structure, and the time-bandwidth of the correlation
Nuclear Test Site at Punggye-ri with Insights from the Source Physics parameters used, but this has not been well quantified. We are using the historic
Experiment dataset of nuclear explosions in southern Nevada to explore empirically where
FORD, S. R., LLNL, Livermore, CA, sean@llnl.gov; WALTER, W. R., LLNL, and how well these events correlate as a function of location, depth, size, time-
Livermore, CA, bill@llnl.gov; DODGE, D. A., LLNL, Livermore, CA, doug@ bandwidth and other parameters. We are examining local, regional and teleseismic
llnl.gov; HAUK, T. F., LLNL, Livermore, CA, terri@llnl.gov recordings. A goal is to develop more meaningful and physical metrics that go
beyond the correlation coefficient and can be applied to explosion monitoring
Correlation detection limits for events similar to the last two explosions at problems, particularly event identification.
the DPRK test site at Punggye-Ri are determined at the two closest CTBT
(Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty) International Monitoring System
(IMS) seismic arrays at Ussuriysk, Russian Federation (USRK) and Wonju, P-coda and Ms U Calibration for Improved Event Identification
Republic of Korea (KSRS), and the three-component GSN station at Mudanjiang, NAPOLI, V., Weston Geophysical Corp., Lexington, MA, vnapoli@
China (MDJ). Detections at each array and station are combined in a correlation westongeo.com; RUSSELL, D., Weston Geophysical Corp., Satellite Beach, FL,
score that normalizes for the site noise conditions, allowing multi-station detection dhrussell@westongeo.com; YOO, S., Weston Geophysical Corp., Lexington,
determinations and thereby improving the significance of a correlation detection. MA, syoo@westongeo.com; MAYEDA, K., Weston Geophysical Corp.,
A catalog of small events near the DPRK test site is created and the definition Lexington, MA, kevin.mayeda@gmail.com
of a spurious correlation is investigated using the statistics of seismicity in the
Punggye-Ri region. Examples of significant correlation at the Nevada National In order to improve discrimination of small explosions and earthquakes, we
Security Site are developed using the small explosions of the Source Physics have been developing a unified Rayleigh and Love wave magnitude scale (Ms U)
Experiment recorded at regional three-component stations and the IMS array that is designed to maximize available information from single stations and then
at Mina, USA (NVAR). These provide insight into where and how correlation combine magnitude estimates into network averages. A previous mb :Ms U study
can be used for CTBT monitoring. The results presented here will place the done in 2013 in the Korean Peninsula shows that the use of Ms U in place of
standard 20 second Ms leads to increased population separation and reduced
detection reported in Zhang & Wen (2015) in context. This work was performed
under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore scattering. In this current study we are developing an mb (P-Coda) magnitude
National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS- scale in addition to using Ms U because the properties of the coda will make
665983. sparse network mb (P-Coda) more robust and less variable than network mb (P)
estimates. The goals of a combined mb (P-coda):Ms U scale are reducing scatter,
being applicable at small magnitudes and spare networks and overall improving
Fusing Multiple Geophysical Signatures to Detect Small Chemical distribution for the mb :Ms U earthquake/explosion populations. To test this
Explosions At Local Distances method we are calculating mb (P-coda) and Ms U for a catalog earthquakes
CARMICHAEL, J. D., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, (3.21 < M < 5.08) located in the Korean Peninsula and Yellow Sea region
joshuac@lanl.gov; ARROWSMITH, S. J., Los Alamos National Laboratory, recorded at near-regional distances (50-600 km) and for the three North Korean
Los Alamos, NM, arrows@lanl.gov; NEMZEK, R. J., Los Alamos National nuclear tests (4.1 < M < 5.0). Compared to the aforementioned 2013 study,
Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, nemzek@lanl.gov; SETNZ, K., Los Alamos we expect to see greater separation in the populations and less scattering with
National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, ksentz@lanl.gov; ANDERSON, D. N., the inclusion of mb (P-coda) and with the implementation of additional filters
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, dand@lanl.gov for Ms U to improve signal-to-noise levels; this includes S-transform filtering for
polarization and off-azimuth signal reduction at regional distances. As we are
Comprehensive explosion monitoring requires the technical capability to building our database of mb (P-coda):Ms U measurements in the Korean Peninsula
identify certain signatures at low signal strengths. For particularly small, to determine the earthquake and explosion distribution, this research will address
evasively conducted explosions, conventional monitoring methods that use single the limitations and potential of discrimination of small magnitude events in sparse
geophysical phenomenologies may produce marginal or absent detections. To networks.

on 09 October 2018
Lidar identifies source for 1872 earthquake near Chelan, Washington
Characterizing Ground Motions and Active Faults in SHERROD, B. L., University of Washington, Seattle, WA, bsherrod@usgs.gov
Urban Areas One of the largest historic earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest occurred on
Poster Session · Tuesday · 21 April · Exhibit Hall A 15 December 1872 near the south end of Lake Chelan. Lack of recognized
surface deformation associated with this earthquake suggested that the earthquake
occurred on a blind, perhaps deep, fault. New LiDAR data reveal a NW-side-up
Characterizing the Recent Behavior of the Ventura Blind Thrust Fault: Results scarp along the north side of Spencer Canyon, ˜7 km SW of Entiat, WA. The scarp
from the Brookshire Avenue, Ventura, Study Site is ˜6 km long with a maximum height of 2.4 m. Two landslides in Spencer Canyon
GRENADER, J. R., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, impound small ponds; the larger of the two landslides obliterated the scarp,
grenader@usc.edu; DOLAN, J. F., University of Southern California, Los suggesting that the scarp predated the landslides. An historical account indicates
Angeles, CA, Dolan@usc.edu; MCAULIFFE, L. J., University of Southern that dead trees were visible in one pond in AD1884. Wood from a standing snag
California, Los Angeles, CA, lee.mcauliffe@gmail.com; RHODES, E. J., in the pond yielded a calibrated age of AD1670–1940. The oldest trees on each
University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom, erhodes@ess.ucla.edu; landslide are 130 and 128 years old. Hand-excavated trenches across the scarp
SHAW, J. H., Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, shaw@eps.harvard.edu; exposed a NW-dipping thrust fault. The Mule Deer trench exposed alluvial fan
PRATT, T. L., USGS, Reston, VA USA, tpratt@usgs.gov; HUBBARD, deposits, Mazama ash, and scarp colluvium cut by a single thrust fault. Three
J., Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, judith.a.hubbard@gmail. charcoal samples from a soil horizon buried during the last fault movement had
com calibrated ages between AD1680 and AD1940. The Chickaree Trench exposed
gneiss thrust over colluvium during at least two, possible three, fault movements.
Analysis of three new continuously cored boreholes and six new cone-penetrometer The younger of two charcoal samples collected below gneiss thrust over colluvium
tests (CPTs) from strata folded above the tipline of the eastern Ventura fault, during the last movement gave a calibrated age of AD1665– AD1905. Oxcal
together with a high-resolution seismic reflection profile acquired in 2010 along modeling of the age data suggests that the last movement was between AD1840
the same transect, reveal the geometry of these deposits and provide information and AD1890. From these observations I infer that the last movement on the newly
on incremental displacements during latest Pleistocene-Holocene on this major identified fault was during the 1872 earthquake. If correct, the 1872 earthquake
blind thrust fault. The locus of active folding above the thrust tipline is marked by was on a shallow thrust fault that ruptured the ground surface, thereby refining
a prominent 8-m-tall fold scarp at the Brookshire Avenue study site. Preliminary the location of the 1872 earthquake and reducing uncertainties in seismic hazard
analysis reveals 18 m of relief on a basal clay unit from which we recovered two analyses for the region.
organic clay samples from a charcoal-rich layer that both yielded a calendric age of
˜c.15 ka. This indicates an uplift rate of 1.2 mm/yr, which would imply a reverse
slip rate on the 50◦ North-dipping Ventura thrust ramp (Hubbard et al., 2014) of Enhanced Seismic Monitoring for British Columbia’s North Coast
˜2 mm/yr. These radiocarbon results suggest a similar sediment accumulation rate BRILLON, C., Natural Resources Canada, Sidney, BC, Canada, cbrillon@
of ˜3 mm/yr as that observed at our Day Road study site 1.4 km to the west. These nrcan.gc.ca; ALLEN, T. I., Natural Resources Canada, Sidney, BC, Canada,
observations, in combination with ongoing luminescence dating (ages pending) of tallen@nrcan.gc.ca
samples from the boreholes will provide incremental fault slip rates as well as the
timing and displacement in recent Ventura fault earthquakes. These results add In July 2014, Natural Resources Canada installed five, real-time, co-located
to a growing body of paleoseismic and structural information along the Ventura seismic and GPS stations in British Columbia’s North Coast region (BCNC)
fault that is changing our view of the hazard posed by this structure. In particular, in a bid to better quantify earthquake hazard for the region. Historically, the
evidence for large single-event displacements (5->10 m), a rapid fault slip rate, quantity and magnitude of earthquakes in the BCNC has been significantly less
and structural analyses documenting the interconnectivity of major reverse faults than neighboring areas, which has resulted in regionally sparse seismic and GPS
of the western Transverse Ranges demonstrate that the Ventura fault has the networks with a magnitude completeness of ML 2.1. Consequently, the permanent
potential to generate very large-magnitude (Mw >7.5) earthquakes involving network configuration in the BCNC has, until now, limited regional seismic
multiple faults in the western and central Transverse Ranges. The occurrence of hazard estimation. Data recorded at these stations will improve regional earthquake
such large magnitude earthquakes has important implications for seismic risk in detection capabilities, long-term crustal deformation studies, and ground-motion
the densely populated southern California region. investigations, which will be used to update Canada’s National Seismic Hazard
Model. Since installation, few local earthquakes have been recorded in the BCNC.
The majority of seismicity recorded on the new stations originates from offshore
Lidar and Geophysical Mapping of the Rodgers Creek-Healdsburg Fault Haida Gwaii. Although the GPS time series is too short to make any conclusions,
Through Santa Rosa, California what has been recorded thus far appears to agree with regional GPS observations.
HECKER, S., U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, shecker@usgs.gov; In addition to these new stations, efforts are underway to better characterize site
LANGENHEIM, V. E., U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, zulanger@ response in the town of Kitimat. Using a Micro-Med Tromino 3-component
usgs.gov; WILLIAMS, R. A., U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO, sensor, microtremor data were recorded at multiple sites in and around Kitimat.
rawilliams@usgs.gov; HITCHCOCK, C. S., InfraTerra, Inc., San Francisco, Horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSR) were used to estimate fundamental
CA, chitchcock@infraterra.com; DELONG, S. B., U.S. Geological Survey, periods (ranging from 0.72-2.00 s) and relative amplification in the area. Results
Menlo Park, CA, sdelong@usgs.gov of the HVSR analysis will be used to identify where supplementary geophysical
surveys are required to improve ground-motion estimations for the Kitimat area.
Airborne lidar topography reveals for the first time the complex trace of the This work will be used as a proxy for analogue areas along the British Columbia
Rodgers Creek-Healdsburg fault (RCHF) through Santa Rosa, the largest city in west coast. An overview of the augmented seismic and GPS networks in the BCNC
the northern San Francisco Bay area. Vertical deformation of the Santa Rosa Creek and HVSR analysis will be presented. Results of the first nine months of data
floodplain, expressed as small (< 1-m-high) scarps, results in a 0.4-km-wide pull- collection and future plans for the project will also be discussed.
apart basin beneath the urban cover that is part of a broader 1-km-wide right-
releasing bend in the fault. Subsurface structures interpreted from high-resolution
gravity, aeromagnetic, seismic-reflection and geotechnical data provide context for Shear-Wave Velocity in the Seattle Basin Characterized Through KRSPAC:
the complex surface pattern of faulting and for the distribution of seismicity and Insights from a New Approach to Basin-Scale Vs Imaging
possibly for spatial variation in creep behavior. We identify a small (˜1-km wide) STEPHENSON, W. J., U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO, wstephens@
dense, magnetic basement body subjacent to the pull-apart basin that we interpret usgs.gov; ODUM, J. K., U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO, odum@usgs.
as a strong asperity, likely part of a larger locked patch of the fault to the south. A gov; ASTEN, M. W., Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia,
local increase in frictional resistance to slip associated with the rock body appears to michael.asten@monash.edu; FRANKEL, A. D., U.S. Geological Survey, Seattle,
explain 1) development of the pull-apart basin above where the RCHF intersects WA, afrankel@usgs.gov
the body, 2) seismicity localized around the north end of the body, notably the
1969 M 5.6 and 5.7 Santa Rosa earthquakes and aftershocks, and 3) creep rates Characterizing earthquake ground motions through 3-D simulations is becoming
that are higher north of Santa Rosa than to the south on the Rodgers Creek standard practice for seismic hazard assessment in urbanized sedimentary basins.
fault. A major earthquake (M>6.7) on the RCHF is considered relatively likely However realistic ground motion prediction requires shear-wave velocity (Vs)
in the coming decades, and an earthquake associated with the inferred asperity data at depths that capture the extent of the sedimentary column (i.e., usually
could generate high-frequency ground motions in the Cotati basin beneath Santa greater than 30 m), which can be difficult to obtain. We acquired microtremor
Rosa, already known to produce amplified and damaging shaking from historical array data in Seattle basin, Washington State, and applied the wavenumber-
earthquakes. normalized spatial autocorrelation method (KRSPAC) to obtain Vs at depths as

on 09 October 2018
great as 2500 m within the basin. In contrast to a traditional SPAC approach, earthquake sequences occurred near San Carlos at different times. Before this
where modeling high wavenumbers within the SPAC spectrum requires array study, little was known on the seismicity of the zone due to lack of local seismic
symmetry, in the KRSPAC approach we transform observed coherency-versus- stations. Several of those micro earthquakes were felt and caused minor damage
frequency spectra to coherency-versus-kr (where k and r are wavenumber and and alarm among residents of San Carlos. This prompted the installation of
station separations, respectively), prior to Vs-versus-depth modeling. We acquired small temporary seismic arrays in the area. The relevance of the earthquakes that
microtremor data at 11 sites throughout the Seattle basin to characterize Vs at were recorded lies in that they occurred at more than 200 km west of the main
depths capable of delineating the Quaternary and upper Tertiary sedimentary boundary between the Pacific and North America plates. Results of our study show
deposits as well as the Quaternary boundary, which is typically less than 1000 m that most of the located epicenters correlate with the northwest segment of the
deep. We deployed seven-sensor nested irregular triangular arrays, with nominal Santa Margarita fault. Accordingly, the hypocenter depths increased northeast, in
interstation spacings that varied from about 300 m to 2000 m. From our consistency with a prepared composite fault plane solution that shows a significant
microtremor data we interpret Vs to depths over 2200 m. Comparison of component of normal faulting (east-side down). Further, this mechanism was quite
KRSPAC Vs results to previous interpretations from both regional S-wave and similar to CMT mechanisms for two Mw 5.4 and 5.3 events occurred in the area
ambient noise tomography suggests a broadly comparable Vs structure in the in 2004. Published mechanisms for other past earthquakes of the region also show
250 to 1000 m depth range. The average Vs to depths of 100 m, 500m and components of normal faulting. Thus, the seismicity reported here confirms the
1000m within the basin are 478 m/s, 580 m/s, and 770 m/s, respectively. existence of transtensional deformation at the Pacific margin of Baja California
At each site we interpret the base of Quaternary at the first boundary where Sur. It is also worth noticing that larger future events in the studied zone pose a
Vs increases above 700 m/s. Using this criterion, we find the depth of the seismic hazard of unknown levels to San Carlos.
Quaternary boundary is generally consistent with borehole data within the basin,
although we add important detail in boundary depth where the borehole data are Investigating the Historical Seismicity of the Indonesian Archipelago using
sparse. Macroseismic Intensity Observations
MARTIN, S. S., Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore,
smartin@ntu.edu.sg; BRADLEY, K., Nanyang Technological University,
Surface Wave Velocity Measurements in the San Francisco Bay Delta Region Singapore, Singapore, kbradley@ntu.edu.sg; HUBBARD, J., Nanyang
CRAIG, M. S., California State University, East Bay, Hayward, CA, Technological University, Singapore, Singapore, jhubbard@ntu.edu.sg;
mitchell.craig@csueastbay.edu; HAYASHI, K., Geometrics, San Jose, CA, HANANTO, N. D., Indonesian Institute of Sciences, Bandung, Indonesia,
khayashi@geometrics.com; SHULER, S., California State University, East nugroho.dwi.hananto@lipi.go.id; SIEH, K., Nanyang Technological University,
Bay, Hayward, CA, sshuler2@horizon.csueastbay.edu; JONES, M., California Singapore, Singapore, sieh@ntu.edu.sg; SINGH, S. C., Institut de Physique du
State University, East Bay, Hayward, CA, mjones92@horizon.csueastbay.edu; Globe de Paris, Paris, France, singh@ipgp.fr
ROUGHLEY, C., California State University, East Bay, Hayward, CA,
croughley@horizon.csueastbay.edu; GALVIN, J., California State University, Our understanding of seismicity along the Sunda-Java arc prior to the 21st century
East Bay, Hayward, CA, jgalvin4@horizon.csueastbay.edu has been largely shaped by palaeo-geodetic studies of sea-level changes, while recent
seismic activity, particularly in the decade since the great 2004-2005 earthquakes
Active and passive surface wave surveys were conducted at several locations in in Sumatra, has been investigated using modern seismic and geodetic networks.
the San Francisco Bay Delta region to measure shear wave velocity (VS ). Surveys However, seismicity during Dutch colonial rule between 1800 and 1942 is poorly
were conducted at Bethel Island and Sherman Island, at sites of previous and catalogued. Extant summaries for this period (Wichmann, 1877; Newcomb &
existing seismic stations. Active MASW (multichannel analysis of surface waves) McCann, 1987) are succinct and often lack data suitable for a critical qualitative
surveys were conducted using a 48-channel linear array and sledgehammer source. and quantitative analysis of shaking effects. We provide an improved macroseismic
Two types of passive surveys, utilizing ambient noise, were conducted: 1) a near- database of large and damaging earthquakes in Sumatra, Java and Bali between
surface survey using the same linear array that was used in the active MASW 1757 and 1938, based on archival materials from Dutch and British colonies. Using
survey, and 2) a deeper survey using the two-station spatial autocorrelation (SPAC) written descriptions of felt shaking and damage, we assigned intensities using the
method. VS was determined to depths of ˜ 20 m using the active survey with European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98). Our database contains 952 points of
linear array and ˜ 40 m using the passive survey with linear array. Maximum error-weighted intensity observations ranging from 2 to 9 EMS. It also provides
separation between stations in the two-station SPAC surveys was 1600 m at information on secondary seismic hazards such as seismically induced lahars and
Bethel Island and 1800 m at Sherman Island, providing coherent signal with areas of apparent site response. Our investigations detail for the first time, the
wavelengths in excess of 5 km and depth penetration of ˜ 2000 m at both impacts of several poorly known events. For example, for the 1907 earthquake off
sites. Data from each of the survey types were transformed into the frequency- the islands of Simeulue and Nias, we provide intensity data for the mainshock and,
velocity domain and fundamental-mode dispersion curves were picked. The three for the associated tsunami we estimate run-up heights and inundation distances.
methods provide usable data over different frequency ranges, with sufficient With this information we plan to constrain the location and style of the rupture on
overlap to allow the curves to confidently merged. Dispersion curves from the the megathrust by interpreting bathymetry and 2D seismic reflection lines near the
three methods were thus combined to produce a composite dispersion curve inferred epicenter. We also expand the record of seismicity on the Sumatran Fault
for each site. Each dispersion curve was inverted to provide VS profile, with System, identifying new events such as the 1873 Mandailing sequence. Interpreting
information for the upper few tens of m provided by the linear array measurements, our data in conjunction with newly mapped surface fault traces, we seek to obtain
and deeper information provided by the larger offset two-station SPAC a new perspective on rupture termination, earthquake triggering and historical
measurements. moment release rates on this fault system.
Preliminary Results of Crustal Structure Beneath Nasiriyah and Basra

A Local Seismicity Study at the Central Part of the Magdalena Shelf, in the Areas, Southern Iraq, Using Inversion of Fundamental Mode Rayleigh Wave
Pacific Margin of Baja California Sur, Mexico. Dispersion Curves
MUNGUÍA, L., CICESE, Ensenada, Baja California, México, lmunguia@ MAHDI, H., University of Arkansas, Little Rock, AR, hhmahdi@ualr.edu;
cicese.mx; GONZÁLEZ, M., CICESE, Ensenada, Baja California, México, ABDULNABY, W., University of Basra, Basra, Iraq, wgabdulnaby@ualr.edu;
mgonzale@cicese.mx; NAVARRO, M., CICESE, Ensenada, Baja California, AL-SHUKRI, H., University of Arkansas, Little Rock, AR, hjalshukri@ualr.edu;
México, mnavarro@cicese.mx; VALDEZ, T., CICESE, Ensenada, Baja ABD, N., University of Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq, naabd@ualr.edu; CHLAIB,
California, México; MAYER, S., CICESE, Ensenada, Baja California, México; H., University of Thi-Qar, Thi-Qar, Iraq, hkchlaib@ualr.edu; RAMTHAN,
AGUIRRE, A., CICESE, Ensenada, Baja California, México; WONG, V., A., University of Thi-Qar, Thi-Qar, Iraq; HANNINA, S., University of Basra,
CICESE, Ensenada, Baja California, México; LUNA, M., CICESE, Ensenada, Basra, Iraq; MAHDI, M., University of Basra, Basra, Iraq; AL-MOHANED, R.,
Baja California, México University of Basra; AL-ZUBAIRI, Z., University of Basra; GOK, R., Lawrence
Livermore National Laboratory
The seismic zone of this study locates along the Pacific coast of Baja California
Sur, at the central part of the Magdalena Shelf. This area includes San Carlos, a Four broadband seismic stations were installed in South-Central part of Iraq. In
town of around 5000 inhabitants. To the west of this shelf lies the Magdalena collaboration with Thi-Qar University and Basra University, three of them were
microplate, a remnant of the subduction process of the Farallon plate beneath installed in and around Nasiriyah city in June, 2014, and the fourth was installed
the North America plate. Major tectonic features that cut through the area are in Basra city in late August, 2014. Reporting, analyzing, and archiving of seismic
the Tosco-Abreojos and San Lázaro-Santa Margarita fault systems that trend data started on August, 2014. During the same month an earthquake swarm took
approximately north-northwest, dip to east and control the geometry of two place along the Iran-Iraq border. The recorded events show that this swarm started
asymmetric transtensional basins. Here, we present results of analyses of micro before August 17th. The highest number of events happed on August 18th, during

on 09 October 2018
which the largest magnitude of 6.2 struck the border region at 02:32 UTC, 238 km thickening wedge of ACP strata. Here we report preliminary results from the first
N of Basra, Iraq, leaving 60 people injured according to the local authority reports. five months of the deployment.
The swarm continued until August 26th when it subsided considerably. Recorded
Fundamental mode Rayleigh wave data (mainly from this swarm) were used to
calculate the group velocity dispersion curves. The dispersion values were then Seismic And Liquefaction Hazard Maps For The St. Louis Metropolitan Area
inverted to derive the S-wave crustal velocity models along the propagation paths CRAMER, C., Univ. of Memphis, Memphis, TN, ccramer@memphis.edu;
using CPS of Herrmann and Ammon, 2004 software package. Preliminary results WILLIAMS, R., USGS, Golden, CO; BOYD, O., USGS, Golden, CO; BAUER,
R., Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; VOIGT, V., MoDNR/MoGS, Rolla, MO;
of the velocity models for both areas exhibited a sedimentary column of about 10
km thickness while the Moho depth using Nasiriyah stations shows around 40 PIERCE, L., MoDNR/MoGS, Rolla, MO; CHUNG, J., Mo. Univ. Sci. & Tech.,
km and deeper than that for Basra station. Currently, data processing is still in Rolla, MO; ROGERS, D., Mo. Univ. Sci. and Tech., Rolla, MO
progress to refine our models. We also are collecting more teleseismic data for the Seismic and liquefaction hazard maps, that include the effects of local geology,
p-wave receiver function analysis in order to conduct the joint inversion of receiver have been completed for the greater St. Louis urban area. Geological, geophysical,
function and dispersion values to derive a more accurate and constraint velocity and geotechnical information for the 29 quadrangles of the study area were
models beneath the stations. provided by the Illinois State Geological Survey, the Missouri Geological Survey,
and the Missouri University of Science and Technology. This information includes
Ground Motion Simulation in Azerbaijan maps of surface geology and bedrock depth, and reference shear-wave velocity
GOK, R., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, gok1@ profiles and liquefaction probability curves keyed to the surface geology. Maps
llnl.gov; PITARKA, A., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, were generated using the approach of Cramer et al. (2004, 2006, 2008, 2014),
CA, pitarka1@llnl.gov; KAZIMOVA, S., Republic Seismic Survey Center- and were based on the 2014 update of the USGS national seismic hazard model
Azerbaijan National Academy of Sc, Baku, Azerbaijan; YETIRMISHLI G., G., (Petersen et al., 2014), including source models, attenuation relations, and weights.
Republic Seismic Survey Center-Azerbaijan National Academy of Science, The seismic and liquefaction hazard maps were developed on a 0.005 degree
(500 m) grid for peak ground acceleration (PGA), and 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, and
Azerbaijan is located in an active collision zone between Eurasia and Arabia that 2.0 s spectral acceleration (Sa). Liquefaction hazard maps are for Liquefaction
includes Greater/Lesser Caucasus, deep sedimentary south Caspian and Kura Potential Index (LPI) values exceeding 5 and 12. Both probabilistic and scenario
basins. The active tectonics causes a large number of earthquakes which is likely hazard maps have been created, with the probabilistic maps being generated
to result in high vulnerability in the country. We are investigating the effect of using the fully probabilistic methodology of Cramer (2003, 2014) and Cramer
large earthquakes on seismic hazard using ground motion simulation techniques. et al. (2008). Scenario hazard maps include results for a repeat of a M7.5
We start with using existing 2.5-D lithospheric model developed by Gok et al., earthquake on the northern segment of the New Madrid seismic zone and a
(2011). The model was obtained using data from national networks in Azerbaijan, hypothetical M5.8 earthquake beneath downtown St. Louis. Probabilistic seismic
Georgia and Turkey. The Republic Seismic Survey Center of Azerbaijan National and liquefaction hazard maps show moderate (0.1 – 0.25 g PGA) shaking hazard
Academy of Sciences recently deployed an additional 31 broad-band high-quality and low (LPI > 5 below 30% probability for the uplands) to high (LPI > 5
seismic stations in the country. We started testing our regional velocity model above 60% for Mississippi River flood plain) liquefaction hazard in the St. Louis
by simulating ground motion recorded during the Mw=5.6 Zaqatala earthquake area.
in the Greater Caucasus. The goodness-of-fit of recorded and simulated spectral
acceleration was used to test the quality of the proposed crustal model. Maps of
the simulated ground motion from different earthquake scenarios were then used Passive Source Study in the San Gorgonio Pass, CA
to analyze the impact of the underground structure and surface topography on TARNOWSKI, J. M., University of California, Riverside, CA, jtarn002@
wave propagation scattering and ground motion amplitudes for periods longer ucr.edu; GHOSH, A., University of California, Riverside, CA, abhijit.
than 3s. We are planning to improve the seismic velocity model by applying ghosh@ucr.edu; OGLESBY, D. D., University of California, Riverside,
ambient-noise correlation technique in the region using surface wave (phase and CA, david.oglesby@ucr.edu
group velocity) and receiver function data. We will then use this higher resolution
model in simulations and mapping of spectral acceleration from large scenario The San Gorgonio Pass (SGP) is a structurally complex region along the southern
earthquakes. California portion of the San Andreas fault system, with several thrust and strike-
slip faults dissecting the area. As a result, researchers have questioned whether
the area may serve as a rupture propagation barrier for earthquakes in the region,
What’s Shaking in DC?: Measuring the Variations in Earthquake Ground restricting their size. Despite the questions regarding the role of the SGP in
Motions in Washington, DC southern California seismic hazard, there is currently a lack of seismic data available
PRATT, T. L., USGS, Reston, VA, tpratt@usgs.gov; HOUGH, S. E., USGS, from within the SGP to understand fault behavior in the region. To address this
Pasadena, CA, hough@usgs.gov; HORTON, J. W., USGS, Reston, VA, gap, passive linear-array seismic data was collected over a course of 4 months in
whorton@usgs.gov; CHAPMAN, M. C., Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, the vicinity of the thrust-dominated San Gorgonio Pass fault zone in Banning,
mcc@vt.edu; BEALE, J. N., Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, jabeale@vt.edu CA. The array consists of thirty L-22 seismometer stations oriented roughly
perpendicular to the fault. We use additional data from nearby networks to
The M5.8 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake of 2011 caused substantial damage supplement the SGP network and systematically search for non-volcanic tremor
to buildings in Washington, DC, the level of which was surprising for a and fault-zone guided waves. If found, they may shed new light on the dynamics
moderate earthquake ˜130 km away. The Washington National Cathedral and and the structures of the faults in the SGP.
the Washington Monument are nationally prominent buildings that suffered
substantial damage, and numerous other buildings and monuments in the city
were affected. These included significant damage to some unreinforced buildings Towards Constructing “Visible” Disaster Mitigation Community Network in
as well as collapsed fireplaces and fallen or rotated cemetery monuments. The Yokohama, Japan
spatial variability of the damage raises the question of how much local amplification KIM, A., Yokohama City University, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan,
of ground motions varied in the city, especially in the areas of soft fill around ahyik@yokohama-cu.ac.jp; UEMATSU, H., Jupiter Radio Inc., Yokohama,
the National Mall and in the southern and eastern parts of the city that rest on Kanagawa, Japan; IWAMOTO, S., Yokohama City University, Yokohama,
a southeastward-thickening wedge of Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP) sedimentary Kanagawa, Japan; SASAKI, A., Yokohama City University, Yokohama,
strata. USGS “Did You Feel It?” reports suggest that areas of stronger shaking Kanagawa, Japan; HOSHINO, Y., Shenshu University, Kawasaki, Kanagawa,
occurred during the 2011 earthquake, but the data are not sufficiently detailed Japan; TAKEUCHI, T., Yokohama National University, Yokohama, Kanagawa,
to pinpoint underlying causes. To directly measure the variation in ground Japan
shaking, we installed 25 short-period seismometers throughout Washington DC
in November, 2014. The seismometers are broadly distributed geographically, As is well known, Japan is one of the most seismically active countries in
and they sit on geologic units ranging from Paleozoic crystalline bedrock of the the world. For this reason, government and a number of research institutes
Appalachian Piedmont province to ACP strata and artificial fill. To measure have been developed both basic and applied seismological researches extensively.
ground motions in the areas that suffered the most damage, some instruments However, along with these studies, to live in such country it is also important
are located near major buildings that were damaged, but not directly within these that each individual gets prepared to protect his/her home and family from future
structures where recordings would be dominated by building resonance. The goals disaster. For this purpose, it is necessary to promote disaster awareness of people.
of the study are to directly measure the amplitudes of ground shaking relative In addition, preparedness priority should vary by region and/or community.
to bedrock sites, to use analyses of ambient noise to determine shallow seismic Therefor, in this study we selected small community in Yokohama and developed
velocities, and to examine resonance peaks associated with the southeastward- a “visible” disaster mitigation network so that people in the community actively

on 09 October 2018
participate seismic monitoring and share information. Yokohama is located in Vegas, NV, reeddn@nv.doe.gov; MERCADANTE, J. M., National Security
the southern Kanto where the three plates meet, and there is no question about Technologies, Las Vegas, NV, mercadjm@nv.doe.gov; DRELLACK, S. L.,
suffering a devastating earthquake in the future. The selected area is reclamation National Security Technologies, Las Vegas, NV, drellasl@nv.doe.gov;
district and there are a number of old apartments where a big population of elderly PROTHRO, L. B., National Security Technologies, Las Vegas, NV,
person lives alone. So we utilized the network as home monitoring system for prothrlb@nv.doe.gov; TOWNSEND, M. J., National Security Technologies, Las
them as well. The network consists of a server located in the main office and Vegas, NV, townsemj@nv.doe.gov
distributed tiny sensor units. Each unit composed of QCN sensor provided by
Stanford University and Raspberry Pi. The size of unit is about 20 cm by 10 cm Detailed geologic cross sections were constructed along each of the five Source
by 10 cm and it is easily installed at houses and schools. Once the sensor detects Physics Experiment (SPE) geophone lines that radiate outward up to 20 kilometers
the ground motion, the data is sent to the server and calculate seismic intensity from the SPE source hole at Climax stock in northern Yucca Flat at the Nevada
and evaluate the status of building. In our presentation we will show how we utilize National Security Site. The lines cross a variety of geologic and topographic
the network in the community and demonstrate various applications developed for regimes, which complicates interpretation of seismic data recorded along the
people and school in the community. lines. Modelers have expressed a need for a better geological context along these
lines to improve interpretations of SPE results. Incorporating data from more
The December 1, 2014 Flagstaff, Arizona Earthquake (Mw4.7) than 50 years of geologic and geophysical investigations in the area, the cross
BRUMBAUGH, D., Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, david. sections provide important information on depth of weathering, depth and
brumbaugh@nau.edu; YOUNG, J., Arizona Geological Survey, Phoenix, AZ, character of lithologic units and unit contacts, and positions of nearby faults and
jeri.young@azgs.az.gov other structural features that could affect seismic wave propagation. Existing 3-D
hydrostratigraphic framework models constructed for a different project formed
At 05:57:35 UTC on December 1 a magnitude 4.7 earthquake located just south the basis for the cross sections, but detail was added, especially in the upper
of Flagstaff was strongly felt in the city and surrounding area. The December 1 kilometer, to enhance the cross sections for the purpose of aiding the interpretation
earthquake is the first to be felt in Flagstaff from a northern Arizona source since of seismic data. The detailed cross sections will also help in the development
the April 29, 1993 Mw 5.3 Cataract Creek earthquake. Minor damage was reported of 3-D seismic-attribute framework models being constructed for the Yucca
but no injuries occurred. The event was preceded by foreshocks and followed by a Flat region. This work was performed by National Security Technologies, LLC,
sequence of aftershocks. The main shock solution indicates that the strain release under Contract Number DE AC52-06NA25946 with the U.S. Department of
was by normal fault slip on a northeast trending surface. This is unusual since most Energy.
all of the previous fault plane solutions for northern Arizona earthquakes show
preferred northwest trending potential surfaces, such as the 1993 Cataract Creek
earthquake. Major faults in the area of the December 1st Mw 4.7 sequence, the Developing a 3-D Seismic-Attribute Framework Model of Yucca Flat, Nevada
Oak Creek fault (OCF) and the Munds Park fault (MPF) tend to have a N-S National Security Site
trend. There are at least two well-expressed NW-SE minor oblique faults within PROTHRO, L. B., National Security Technologies, Las Vegas, NV,
the asymmetrical graben bounded by the OCF and MPF faults on the west and prothrlb@nv.doe.gov; TOWNSEND, M. J., National Security Technologies,
east side, respectively. These subsidiary faults may accommodate motion between Las Vegas, NV, townsemj@nv.doe.gov; HUCKINS-GANG, H. E., National
the bounding faults. Analysis of tectonic data that will follow from this study Security Technologies, Las Vegas, NV, ganghh@nv.doe.gov; DRELLACK, S. L.,
will be based on available fault plane solutions, more detailed fault mapping, and National Security Technologies„ Las Vegas, NV, drellasl@nv.doe.gov; REED,
geodetic studies information to better constrain the configuration of the present D. N., National Security Technologies„ Las Vegas, NV, reeddn@nv.doe.gov;
stress system for northern Arizona. KINCAID, T. R., GeoHydros, Reno, NV, kincaid@geohydros.com; DAY, K. E.,
GeoHydros, Reno, NV, day@geohydros.com
Damage Features and Strong Ground Motion Characteristics of Ludian Ms6.5 Using data collected during underground nuclear testing in Yucca Flat at the
Earthquake in Yunnan Province, China Nevada National Security Site, an existing 3-D hydrostratigraphic framework
QIAO, S., Institute of Geophysics, Beijing, China, qiaosen@cea-igp.ac.cn; LIU, model (HFM) that was developed for groundwater modeling is being converted to
A. W., Institute of Geophysics, Beijing, China; CHEN, X. L., Institute of a 3-D seismic-attribute framework model (SFM). The resulting SFM can be used to
Geophysics, Beijing, China, chenxl@cea-igp.ac.cn; WEN, Z. P., Institute of better understand seismic wave propagation from underground chemical explosive
Geophysics, Beijing, China; CUI, J. W., Earthquake Administration of Yunnan tests planned for Yucca Flat as part of the Source Physics Experiment. The
Province, Kunming, Yunnan, China Yucca Flat HFM covers 1,250 square kilometers and depicts the distribution of
subsurface geologic units, called hydrostratigraphic units, according to their ability
A Ms6.5 earthquake occurred in Ludian Country of Yunnan Province on Aug. to transmit groundwater. Many of the rock properties and geologic structures that
3, 2014. The mainshock strong motion was recorded by 81 observation stations control groundwater flow also influence seismic wave transmission, so the team
of China Digital Strong Motion Network. Longtoushan Finance Office station reasoned that the HFM could be modified to create an SFM. Existing geologic
located in the meizoseismal area perfectly recorded throughout the whole event, and geophysical data, including interval velocity measurements from down-hole
and the PGA of this record in EW direction is 948.5cm/sˆ2, which is nearly 1g seismic surveys conducted in 188 holes across Yucca Flat, were used to evaluate
(981cm/sˆ2). The strength of the earthquake ground motion reflected by this the HFM and develop a 3-D velocity property model. The velocity model was
record was consistent with the real intensity. Ludian damage characteristics, such integrated with the HFM so that unit volumes within the HFM could be evaluated
as, large earthquake magnitude, epicenter shallow, densely populated, poor aseismic according to their seismic character. Results to date show, as anticipated, that
performance of buildings, casualties serious, etc. and strong ground motion most of the 3-D hydrostratigraphic unit volumes in the HFM can function as
characteristics, as the long axis of peak acceleration contours along the northwest seismic-stratigraphic unit volumes. Thus, with relatively minor modifications,
- southeast direction, are preliminarily summarized. In addition, based on the the HFM can be converted to an SFM. This work was done by National
site investigation, damage characteristic of transportation system, communication Security Technologies, LLC, under Contract No. DE AC52-06NA25946 with
system etc. are also summarized. Geological hazards and strong ground motion the U.S. Department of Energy, and supported by the Site-Directed Research and
are the main reasons for the damage of the lifeline engineering, while road Development Program.
interruption caused by landslides in alpine canyon terrain was the main damage
in transportation system.
Representation of Damage Zones Associated with Underground Nuclear
Explosions in a 3-D Seismic-Attribute Model of Yucca Flat, Nevada National
Expanding our Understanding of Explosion Security Site
Phenomenology Through Analysis and Modeling of TOWNSEND, M. J., National Security Technologies, Las Vegas, NV,
townsemj@nv.doe.gov; PROTHRO, L. B., National Security Technologies,
Seismic Observations and Complementary Data Types Las Vegas, NV, prothrlb@nv.doe.gov; DRELLACK, S. L., National Security
Poster Session · Tuesday · 21 April · Exhibit Hall A Technologies, Las Vegas, NV, drellasl@nv.doe.gov
Following historic underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) conducted in tunnels
Geologic Cross Sections Constructed Along Five Geophone Lines in Place for at the Nevada National Security Site changes in the geologic medium were
Source Physics Experiment Shots at the Nevada National Security Site frequently documented during post-shot mining and drilling. Explosion effects
HUCKINS-GANG, H. E., National Security Technologies, Las Vegas, NV, such as damage zones around shot points and collapse chimneys (rubble columns
ganghh@nv.doe.gov; REED, D. N., National Security Technologies, Las formed above the shot point region when the cavity made by a UNE collapsed),

on 09 October 2018
resulted in localized areas with properties different than those same rocks in their the effect of earth structures on source phenomenology and energy partitioning
undamaged state. These areas were characterized in various ways, including by in the source region, the transition of seismic energy from the near field to the
measurement of changes in medium velocity. Reductions in shear-wave velocities far field, and the development of S waves observed in the far field. To fully
are primary indicators of this damage, but changes in P wave velocities may also explore these problems, the SPE series includes planned explosions (with yields
be observed very close to the collapse chimney. Work is currently underway to that range from 100s to 1000s kg and depths of burials ranging from 15 to 100
develop a 3-D seismic-attribute model for Yucca Flat, where the next phase of m), which are conducted in the same hole and monitored by a diverse set of
Source Physics Experiments will be conducted. A potential complicating factor sensors recording characteristics of the explosions, ground-shock, seismo-acoustic
in modeling seismic wave propagation in Yucca Flat is the presence of clusters of energy propagation in both hard and soft rock geologic environments. The project
rubble chimneys and damage zones associated with historic UNEs. In addition comprises a number of activities, which range from characterizing the shallow
to volumes defined within the geologic section on the basis of rock seismic subsurface to acquiring new explosion data from both the near field (<100 m)
properties, this new seismic-attribute model will include representations of UNE and the far field (>100 m). This presentation focuses on the 3D visualization
damage zones and collapse chimneys, using information from historic studies of and analysis of the well logs acquired at the SPE Phase I test bed located within
these features. Modelers will be able to parameterize them to explore any possible the Climax stock granite using JewelSuiteT M (a reservoir modeling software
effect they may have on seismic wave propagation in the region. This work was package that builds and updates complex 3D geologic models). Logs acquired
done by National Security Technologies, LLC, under Contract No. DE AC52- include sonic, density, caliper, deviation, and gamma ray. The granite is highly
06NA25946 with the U.S. Department of Energy, and supported by the Site- fractured with several faults cutting across the test bed. The well log correlation will
Directed Research and Development Program. produce a high-resolution sub-surface structure map that can be used to inform the
hydrodynamic and velocity modeling of the test bed. This work was conducted
under Contract No. DE-AC52-06NA25946 with the U.S. Department of
Energy.
Synthesis of Geologic and Historical Seismic Data from Nuclear and
Chemical Explosions to Characterize the Source Physics Experiment Dry
Alluvium Geology Site
Introducing PAsTA: A Statistical Framework for Association of Multi-
RODGERS, A. J., LLNL, Livermore, CA, rodgers7@llnl.gov; WAGONER, J.,
Phenomenologies
LLNL, Livermore, CA, wagoner1@llnl.gov; PITARKA, A., LLNL, Livermore, EULER, G. G., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, ggeuler@
CA, pitarka1@llnl.gov; HELMBERGER, D. V., California Institute of lanl.gov; BLOM, P. S., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM,
Technology, Pasadena, CA, helm@gps.caltech.edu; HARBEN, P., LLNL, pblom@lanl.gov; ARROWSMITH, S. J., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los
Livermore, CA, harben1@llnl.gov; PROTHRO, L., National Security Alamos, NM, arrows@lanl.gov; ANDERSON, D. N., Los Alamos National
Technologies, Las Vegas, NV Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, dand@lanl.gov
The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) is moving to the Dry Alluvium Geology We present a statistical framework to associate detections from multiple
(DAG) Phase in Yucca Flat at the Nevada National Nuclear Security Site (NNSS). phenomenologies that relies on physics-based priors projected onto each
We will use the extensive archive of geological and geophysical data generated detection’s metrics to formulate association likelihoods between detection pairs.
during nuclear testing in Yucca Flat to build and test a three-dimensional (3D) These likelihoods are then segregated into sets using cluster analysis to allow
seismic model. We are building a 3D model of the region near the SPE-DAG formation of event hypotheses. This association approach is novel in separating
site, spanning a volume roughly 10 km cubed. The model includes Quaternary the association and location problems to make association simple, robust, and
and Tertiary alluvium, Tertiary volcanic rocks, and Paleozoic and Precambrian efficient. We are particularly focused on reducing analyst workloads in this
sedimentary rocks. These rocks are offset by normal faults. Physical properties area as automated association methods currently require significant manual
of the rocks are assigned using the hundreds of downhole borehole geophysical intervention from analysts in seismic or infrasound event catalog formation.
measurements. We collected seismic ground motions for a number of nuclear We present preliminary work testing this approach on a multi-phenomenology
and chemical explosions in the SPE-DAG site, digitized from paper records and dataset of a series of chemical explosions at Los Alamos National Laboratory site
reports. This includes the nuclear explosions: SUGAR (1.2 kt, 11/19/1951); Minie.
UNCLE (1.2 kt, 11/29/1951) and FLASK (105 kt, May 26/1970), as well as
large chemical explosions from the BUSTER-JANGLE series (1951). These shots
are all within 5 km of each other and were recorded by seismic stations within The Effects of 3D Heterogeneity on Regional Moment Tensor Source-Type
the ˜10 km model domain. To evaluate and improve the 3D seismic model, we Discrimination
will simulate ground motions for the recorded data. Particularly valuable are the CHIANG, A., University of California, Berkeley, CA, achiang@seismo.
three-component acceleration records from the FLASK explosion, which were berkeley.edu; DREGER, D. S., University of California, Berkeley, CA, dreger@
recorded by a ring of 11 stations circling the shot at roughly 4 km range. These seismo.berkeley.edu; PITARKA, A., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,
records show dramatic differences in peak amplitudes and complexity, presumably Livermore, CA, pitarka1@llnl.gov; FORD, S. R., Lawrence Livermore National
due to the geometry of the surface of the basement rocks and volumetric Laboratory, Livermore, CA, ford17@llnl.gov
structure in Yucca Flat Basin. This work was performed under the auspices of the
U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Waveform inversion to determine the seismic moment tensor can be used to
Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344, by National Security Technologies, LLC, under identify, or discriminate different types of seismic sources such as explosions,
Contract No. DE-AC52-06NA25946 with the U.S. Department of Energy and collapses, earthquakes, and geothermal and volcanic events. The approach to
supported by the Site-Directed Research and Development Program LLNL-ABS- compute Green’s functions, particularly in regions of low-seismicity where high-
665266 resolution velocity models are not available, is through waveform modeling of
regional earthquakes to produce calibrated 1D velocity models. However, the
1D velocity model assumption is the greatest source of error in the moment
Well Log Correlation of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Phase I Test tensor solution and has never been thoroughly investigated for source-type
Bed discrimination. As a result of the excellent coverage of the NSF EarthScope
SNELSON, C. M., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, transportable array, a number of high-resolution regional 3D Earth models have
snelsonc@lanl.gov; COBLENTZ, D., Los Alamos National Laboratory, been published. In addition, previous works by Ford et al. (2008, 2009, 2010)
Los Alamos, NM, coblentz@lanl.gov; TOWNSEND, M. J., National have investigated a variety of events, including nuclear and chemical explosions,
Security Technologies, Las Vegas, NV, TOWNSEMJ@nv.doe.gov; PROTHRO, mine collapse and earthquakes, using the moment tensor approach. We propose
L., National Security Technologies, Las Vegas, NV, PROTHRLB@nv.doe. to determine the effects of a 1D velocity model assumption through synthetic
gov studies, and applications to real nuclear explosions, cavity collapses and nearby
earthquakes. In the synthetic study we will produce waveforms with the effects
One of the current challenges in the field of monitoring and verification is of 3D heterogeneity using tomographic models for the western US. The effects
source discrimination of low-yield nuclear explosions from background seismicity, of the 1D velocity model assumption can then be interpreted via the difference
both natural and anthropogenic. Work is underway at the Nevada National between input and inverted solutions. We will also compute 3D Green’s functions
Security Site to conduct a series of chemical explosion experiments using a multi- for moment tensor analysis and compare them to the moment tensor solutions
institutional, multi-disciplinary approach. The goal of this series of experiments, obtained from 1D models to assess biases and uncertainties in the moment tensor
called the Source Physics Experiments (SPE), is to refine the understanding of due to assumed Green’s functions.

on 09 October 2018
Locating the Origin of Scattered Waves By Simulating Time Reversal of the peninsula.This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation
Seismic Wavefield of China (grants 41174048, 41374065).
MYERS, S. C., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA,
myers30@llnl.gov; PITARKA, A., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Coupling Hydrodynamic and Wave Propagation Modeling for Waveform
Livermore, CA, pitarka1@llnl.gov; SIMMONS, N. A., Lawrence Livermore Modeling of SPE
National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, Simmons27@llnl.gov; SJOGREEN, B., LARMAT, C. S., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, Sjogreen1@llnl.gov; carene@lanl.gov; STEEDMAN, D. W., Los Alamos National Laboratory,
JOHANNESSON, G., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, Los Alamos, NM, dwsteed@lanl.gov; ROUGIER, E., Los Alamos National
johannesson1@llnl.gov Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, erougier@lanl.gov; BRADLEY, C., Los Alamos
National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, cbradley@lanl.gov
The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) is a series of underground chemical
explosions at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) that are improving our The goal of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) is to bring empirical and
physical understanding how explosion sources generate seismic waves. Even at theoretical advances to the problem of detection and identification of underground
distances of a few kilometers from the SPE sources, seismic recordings include nuclear explosions. Improving the community’s confidence in verification and
arrivals of unknown origin that could originate as S-waves at the explosive source monitoring is essential and requires understanding of all the processes that affect
or from topographic and subsurface scatterers. Back propagation of time reversed seismic wave propagation from the hydrodynamic/plastic source region to the
seismograms has been used to determine the location of seismic events (e.g. Tromp elastic/anelastic far field. To completely understand this process, the prompt
et al., 2005; Larmat et al., 2006), and Myers et al. (2007) demonstrated that the processes that take place in the near source region must be joined/coupled to the
time-reversal method can be used to determine the origin of direct and scattered ones taking place later in time due to wave propagation in complex 3D geologic
waves in seismic simulations. In this study we identify the origin of distinct features environments. In recent years, significant progress has been made in the numerical
in synthetic seismograms that are generated by elastic, finite-difference simulations modeling arena, and the capabilities are now mature enough to address multi-
of seismic propagation from SPE explosions through a model that has been physics modeling comprising the coupling of different numerical tools. In this
developed specifically for the SPE. The SPE model includes 3-dimensional velocity paper, we report on results of first-principles simulations coupling hydrodynamic
discontinuities at geologic boundaries, as well as free-surface topography. Although simulation codes (Abaqus and CASH), with a 3D full waveform propagation code,
the largest arrivals in the synthetic seismograms originate at the explosion source, SPECFEM3D. Abaqus and CASH model the shocked, hydrodynamic region via
preliminary results suggest that much of the S-wave energy in the seismograms equations of state for the explosive, borehole stemming and jointed/weathered
originate as scattered energy from model discontinuities. Scattering sources in granite. SPECFEM3D is based on the spectral element method that is a direct
the SPE model that are needed in order to match synthetic seismograms to field numerical method for full waveform modeling with mathematical accuracy (e.g.
recordings of SPE shots will be identified. Conversely, model structures may be Komatitsch, 1998, 2002) due to its use of the weak formulation of the wave
removed if they result in disagreement between synthetic seismograms and field equation and of high-order polynomial functions. We will present waveforms
recordings. Ultimately, we plan to constrain the origin of prominent features in modeled for the three SPE tests conducted so far with yields of 100, 1000, and
field recordings of SPE shots by directly using the field recordings as inputs to ˜900kg.
time reversal simulations. Direct use of field recordings will require development
of methods that account for the uncertainty of the seismic model through which
time-reversed signals are propagated. Source Time Function and RDP of Nuclear/Chemical Explosions Using Time-
Domain Convolution
SAIKIA, C. K., AFTAC, Patrick, FL, chandanksaikia@gmail.com; WOODS,
M., AFTAC, Patrick, FL, mwoods@aftac.gov; DWYER, J. J., AFTAC, Patrick,
Pn Spreading and Attenuation around Korean Peninsula Constrained with FL, jdwyer@aftac.gov
Observations from the North Korean Nuclear Tests
We developed a new time function representing the Reduced Displacement
ZHAO, L. F., Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
Potential (RDP, PSI(t)) of a nuclear/chemical explosion for specified values of
Beijing, BJ, China, zhaolf@mail.igcas.ac.cn; XIE, X. B., University of California,
yield and depth of burial. This RDP time function, when convolved with a pressure
Santa Cruz, CA, xxie@ucsc.edu; TIAN, B. F., Institute of Geophysics, China
function associated with an explosion results in a time function which represents
Earthquake Administration, Beijing, BJ, China, bftian@gmail.com; CHEN,
the radial wavefield at the boundary of the transition from the inelastic to elastic
Q. F., Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
zone. This time function contains two terms, called "static" and "dynamic", and
Beijing, BJ, China, chenqf@mail.iggcas.ac.cn; HAO, T. Y., Institute of
has the interesting feature that the displacement spectra from the "static" term
Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, BJ, China,
dominate the spectra for frequencies less than the source corner. This characteristic
tyhao@mail.iggcas.ac.cn; YAO, Z. X., Institute of Geology and Geophysics,
feature is also observed in the empirical displacement spectra computed using the
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, BJ, China, yaozx@mail.iggcas.
SPE experiment data. We also verified a new formulation for PSI(t) by convolving
ac.cn
a radial accelerogram with a function exp(-a.t)H(t) where the parameter ’a’ is
Pn propagation characteristics are investigated in areas around the Korean defined by "C/R " , C being the P wave velocity at the source and R being the
peninsula based on seismograms from the North Korean nuclear tests recorded at radial distance, and by a two-time integration of the resulting trace. This approach
297 regional stations distributed in eastern China, South Korea, and Japan. The is simple and easy to implement. Source time function matches the close-in and
epicenter distance is between 143 and 1930 km. Due to no source complexity, regional P wave displacement spectra from both the Non Proliferation experiment
520 three-component seismograms, generated by three North Korean explosions, and the Hunter Trophy nuclear explosion at NTS. Displacement spectra predicted
provide us a good opportunity to understand both geometric spreading and from this time function for the SPE chemical explosions using their announced
attenuation of Pn phases in this region. For illustrating better construction for yield and depth of burial also matched empirical observations. We are currently
Pn-spectral dataset, we extract Pn waveforms by adopting four schemes, including analyzing regional and teleseismic P wave displacement spectra to probe the
using a 0.7 km/s group-velocity window around the IASP91 arrival times and presence of this characteristic feature. Preliminary analysis is quite encouraging.
a fixed 4 second window after the first arriving P wave, respectively based on In addition, we are computing RDPs of the SPE chemical and SALMON,
vertical-component records and incidence P seismograms which were obtained by STERLING and COWBOY nuclear explosions using near-field radial waveforms
twice rotations of the three-component observations according to back azimuth recorded at shot depth to invert for the source parameters, and will compare
and incident angle which computed using CRUST1.0 model. We collect the them against the announced values using the proposed time-domain convolution
noise in an equal-length time window before the first arriving P wave for four method.
cases above. By correcting Pn spectra with the noise, we obtain the source-station
amplitudes between 0.3 and 15.0 Hz. We investigate Pn geometric spreading Sensitivity Analysis of the Far-Field Motion From the SPE3 Underground
by using quadratic frequency-dependent power-law models. The resulted Pn Chemical Explosion
spreading and regional attenuation show amazing consistency for four Pn datasets, PITARKA, A., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA,
which suggesting that to investigate Pn propagation we can only collect vertical- pitarka1@llnl.gov; EZZEDINE, S. M., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,
component records and use the easily operated scheme for Pn-wave extraction Livermore, CA; VOROBIEV, O. Y., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,
with a 0.7 km/s group-velocity window. By removing the effects of the geometric Livermore, CA; ANTOUN, T. H., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,
spreading, we use both single- and dual-station Pn-spectra to construct a 0.3-15.0 Livermore, CA; GLENN, L. A., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,
Hz broadband uppermost mantle Pn attenuation model in areas around Korean Livermore, CA; MELLORS, R. J., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,

on 09 October 2018
Livermore, CA; WALTER, W. R., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,
Livermore, CA From Newspapers to Numerical Analyses: Documenting
Three dimensional numerical simulations of the motions generated by the Source and Understanding Earthquakes in Central and Eastern
Physics Experiments (SPE) of chemical underground explosions conducted at the North America
Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) have shown that the observed near-field Poster Session · Tuesday · 21 April · Exhibit Hall A
shear motion can be generated by sliding on the joints due to spherical wave
propagation. The numerical simulations were performed using GEODYN-L, a
highly parallelized Lagrangian hydrocode, while a stochastic approach was used in New Research and Monitoring Opportunities with the Central and Eastern
characterizing the properties of joints and source media. In this study we carried United States Seismic Network
the sensitivity analysis to far-field motion using a hybrid physics-based approach SUMY, D. F., IRIS Consortium, Washington, DC, danielle.sumy@iris.edu;
that combines hydro-regime modeling of the near-field source with the far-field WOODWARD, R. L., IRIS Consortium, Washington, DC, woodward@iris.edu;
elastic modeling of wave propagation. We analyzed the effect of the near-source FRASSETTO, A. M., IRIS Consortium, Washington, DC, andyf@iris.edu;
structural complexities on the simulated far-field motions. The simulations are BUSBY, R. W., IRIS Consortium, Washington, DC, busby@iris.edu
performed in the frequency range of 0.1-10 Hz. The near-field ground motions
simulated for several source realizations of the SPE3 explosion, using different Recent earthquakes, such as the 2011 M5.8 Virginia earthquake, raised awareness
equally probable joint realizations, were propagated out to far-field distances using of the comparative lack of knowledge about seismicity, site response to ground
an elastic wave propagation code, WPP. The simulated motions were used to shaking, and the basic geologic underpinnings in this densely populated region.
investigate wave scattering effects due to structural complexities. The underlying With this in mind, the National Science Foundation, United States Geological
far-field velocity model was constrained by available geological and geophysical Survey, United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and Department of Energy
data. In our model the wave scattering is a consequence of combined large-scale supported the creation of the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Network
and random small-scale structural features, and surface topography. Our numerical (CEUSN). These agencies, along with the IRIS Consortium who operates the
investigations suggest that depending on the degree of structural complexities network, recognized the unique opportunity to retain EarthScope Transportable
in the near-source region the wave scattering acts as an additional cause for Array (TA) seismic stations in this region beyond the standard deployment
shear motion generation. Wave conversions at geological model discontinuities duration of two years per site. Stations were selected using multiple criteria,
create distinguish waveform that are seen in the SPE data. Through simulations including proximity to known regions of seismic hazard, nuclear power plants,
we are investigating the effect of the uncertainty in the source and seismic and other critical facilities. The CEUSN mission is to produce data that enable
velocity model on the difference between the recorded and simulated far-field both researchers and federal agencies to better understand the basic geologic
motion. questions, background rates of earthquake occurrence and distribution, seismic
hazard potential, and associated societal risks. This multi-agency collaboration
is motivated by the opportunity to use one facility to address multiple missions
Regional Attenuation of Southern Nevada Using Multiphase Inversion and needs in a way that is rarely possible. The CEUSN will encompass 159
PYLE, M. L., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, broadband TA stations, more than 30 with strong motion sensors added, that
pyle4@llnl.gov; WALTER, W. R., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, are scheduled to operate through 2017. Stations were prioritized in regions
Livermore, CA, walter5@llnl.gov; PASYANOS, M. E., Lawrence Livermore of elevated seismic hazard that have not been traditionally heavily monitored,
National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, pasyanos1@llnl.gov such as the Charlevoix and Central Virginia Seismic Zones. The stations
Seismic event amplitude estimation plays an important role in a range of endeavors (network code N4) transmit data in real time, with broadband and strong
including the discrimination between earthquakes and explosions and seismic motion sensors sampling at 100 samples per second. The CEUSN, together
hazard estimation. In this study, we seek to improve amplitude estimation in with the existing backbone coverage of permanently operating seismometers in
the region around southern Nevada with an investigation of the attenuation the central and eastern United States, form a network of over 300 broadband
structure as part of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE). The SPE consists of stations.
a series of chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS)
designed to improve our understanding of explosion physics and enable better Sharpening the Focus: Possibilities and Pitfalls of New Madrid Earthquake
modeling of explosion sources. Phase I of the SPE is currently being conducted Historical Research
in the Climax Stock Granite and Phase II will move to a contrasting dry alluvium MORAN, N. K., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, nkmoran@
geology. Phase III is planned to be a direct earthquake-to-explosion comparison memphis.edu
in Rock Valley at the southern end of NNSS. For the Rock Valley experiment, a
chemical explosion would be placed at the hypocenter of a small shallow earthquake Historic research in our information age with vast increases of digital imaging,
and recorded at a common set of receivers. As part of a feasibility study for storage, and transmission has opened up new vistas of previously inaccessible
this phase of the SPE, LLNL, UNR and NSTec are working to improve our sources, the use of which has added needed data for Historical New Madrid
understanding of the region and the propagation of energy from sources in the Earthquake analysis. On-going efforts using this data promise to further clarify
area to local and regional stations in the western U.S. We simultaneously invert questions of magnitude and the extent of their felt area. Research by Moran has
regional phases Pn, Pg, and Lg (e.g. Pasyanos et al. 2009) to examine the crust and shown a systemic approach in research can lead to new insights. Many pre-internet
upper mantle attenuation structure, and our preliminary results agree generally collections are not digitized and run the risk of being lost due to space constraints at
with those from the continent-wide study by Pasyanos (2013). With additional their host institutions. These collections are vital untapped sources of information
data we are working to develop a more detailed and higher frequency model of that could be judged unnecessary in the present only to be realized as having been
the region in order to ensure that an explosion generated at a Rock Valley site will vital in future efforts. Source material must still be weighed against existing data
be large enough to be recorded at regional distances, and to aid us in all our SPE to ensure its’ accuracy. Searching new digitized material, due to the limitations
modeling efforts. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of search engines, optical character reading programs, etc. is not conclusive, and
of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52- these are volatile in nature and can easily be modified or disappear altogether.
07NA27344. Newly discovered information must still be weighed against existing archival data
to ensure its’ accuracy, fills in existing gaps in knowledge, and is vital in discovering
historic seismic activity.
An Expanded Feature Set for Regional Seismic Discrimination
MACCARTHY, J. K., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, Regression Relationships Between Modified Mercalli Intensities and Ground
jkmacc@lanl.gov; HARTSE, H. E., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Motion Parameters
Alamos, NM, hartse@lanl.gov; ANDERSON, D. N., Los Alamos National OGWENO, L. P., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, logweno@
Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, dand@lanl.gov memphis.edu; CRAMER, C. H., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN,
ccramer@memphis.edu
Classification of seismic signals has commonly relied on a relatively small set
of robust measurements, such body-wave and Rayleigh-wave magnitudes, phase Comparisons between the peak of the ground motions and intensities are based
amplitude ratios, and template correlation coefficients. In this study, we augment mainly on the regressions of intensity with peak ground acceleration (PGA),
this set with other waveform and source information/features, and explore the and in few cases, with the peak velocity, and with the maximum displacement.
efficacy of the expanded set in regional event discrimination, using different Using the next generation attenuation (NGA)-East and California databases, we
statistical and machine learning approaches. have updated and extended the relations of Dangkua and Cramer (2011). We

on 09 October 2018
developed magnitude and distance independent linear regression relationships Anisotropy Beneath the New Madrid Seismic Zone – A Study of Shear Wave
between Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) in the range of II = MMI = VII and Splitting
PGA, peak ground velocity (PGV), and twenty-one spectral accelerations (Sa) for NYAMWANDHA, C. A., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, cnymwndh@
Central and Eastern North America (CENA). We compare these results to those memphis.edu; POWELL, C. A., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN,
obtained from the California database at similar spectral periods. A log-linear-fit capowell@memphis.edu
of MMI to the median values of ground motion was used to determine ground-
motion intensity correlation equation (GMICE) for CENA. We also corrected We use the SplitLab processing environment to measure the shear wave splitting
for recently acknowledged differences between community internet intensities of teleseismic SKS phases recorded at seismic stations in the New Madrid seismic
(CII) and MMI (Hough, 2013, 2014) by adding to ENA CII the difference zone (NMSZ) from January 2011 to date and map the orientation and strength
between Bakun and Hopper (2004) and Atkinson and Wald (2007) intensity of the mantle fabrics beneath this region. Data are obtained from the Northern
prediction equations (IPEs) for MMI and CII respectively. We also performed Embayment Lithospheric Experiment (NELE), the USArray Transportable Array
residual analysis to evaluate whether there were any discrepancies and dependency (TA) and the Cooperative New Madrid Seismic Network (CNMSN) operated
of magnitude, distance and site terms with MMIs. Similarly for California, we by the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI). NELE is a
use the difference between Bakun and Wentworth (1997 – equation 6) and lithospheric-scale passive array experiment in the northern Mississippi embayment
Atkinson and Wald (2007) IPEs (MMI and CII respectively). A linear trend is composed of 6-month deployments of 6 flex array (FA) stations to fill in the TA
observed for all periods studied for the NGA-East database whereas the California grid stations over a period of two years (September 2011 to October 2013) in
database indicates a bilinear trend. The scatter associated with the ground motion 36 locations as well as a two-year deployment (July 2013 to June 2015) of 51
predictions from the MMI regression relations were within minus one point two broadband seismometers along three profiles with an average station spacing of 20
to one point five units in most cases. km.Wecompareresultsacrossdifferentterrainswithinthestudyregion.Preliminary
results indicate a complex pattern of anisotropy beneath the NMSZ. The most
recent detailed P wave velocity (Vp) and S wave velocity (Vs) models for this area
Development of GMPEs with Multiple Region-Specific Random Effects: the have also been determined by performing a joint local and teleseismic inversion.
PEER NGA-East Example A consistent low velocity anomaly is imaged in both the Vp and Vs tomography
KUEHN, N. M., Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, UC results with a concentration at about 200 – 300 km depth. Splitting results will
Berkeley, Berekely, CA, kuehn@berkeley.edu; HOLLENBACK, J., Pacific be combined with these new, detailed P-wave and S-wave velocity models for the
Earthquake Engineering Research Center, UC Berkeley, Berekely, CA, upper mantle associated with the NMSZ. Detailed knowledge of upper mantle
jhollenback@berkeley.edu; GOULET, C., Pacific Earthquake Engineering structure may further our understanding of the driving mechanism of the NMSZ
Research Center, UC Berkeley, Berekely, CA, goulet@berkeley.edu; intraplate earthquakes and allow us to better assess the associated seismic hazard.
ABRAHAMSON, N., University of California, Berekely, CA, Abrahamson@
berkeley.edu;
Lithospheric Structure Beneath Northern Mississippi Embayment from Joint
It has been recognized that the scaling of ground motion intensity measures Inversion of Surface Wave Dispersion and Receiver Functions
(e.g. PGA, PSA) with earthquake source, path and site parameters is region- SU, H., Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO, hansu@slu.edu; HERRMANN,
specific. However, the estimation of regional ground motion prediction equations R. B., Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO, rbh@eas.slu.edu; GUO, H., Saint
(GMPEs) often suffers from lack of data in a certain region. We present a Louis University, St. Louis, MO, guoh@slu.edu
hierarchical global GMPE that accounts for regional differences. For this purpose,
The northern Mississippi Embayment is characterized by relatively high seismicity
the scaling of ground motion intensity measures is assumed to be similar, but not
at the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Although many studies have focused on specific
identical in different regions. This is achieved by assuming a random-effects model,
earthquakes or on the structure at specific locations, the mechanism of the
where some coefficients are random effects, with different regions as the grouping
earthquake process has remained an enigma. As part of the Northern Embayment
factor. The coefficients are estimated by bayesian inference using a Markov Chain
Lithosphere Experiment, we focus on high resolution surface-wave tomography
Monte Carlo scheme. This allows one to estimate the epistemic uncertainty in the
of Love and Rayleigh, phase and group velocities for a study region bounded by
coefficients, and consequently in model predictions, in a principled way. The model
34-40 N latitude and 85-94 W longitude for periods from 2 to 50 seconds by
is estimated based on Fourier spectral data from different regions and tectonic
cross-correlating ambient noise from BH channels of the Transportable Array of
regimes. There are large differences in the number of earthquakes and records in
EarthScope. To test the usefulness of the dispersion, we perform a joint inversion
the different regions. However, due to the hierarchical nature of the model, regions
of dispersion and teleseismic P-wave receiver functions for stations in the region.
with only few data points “borrow strength “from other regions with more data.
At a few locations, we are able to test the resulting models by comparing predicted
This makes it possible to estimate a separate set of coefficients for all regions.
to observed broadband recordings of local earthquakes. At these few locations, we
The analysis shows differences between the scaling of ground-motion in different
find good agreement and also evidence that the Moho is a gradient rather than a
regions, in particular with distance. The models for all regions behave physically
sharp discontinuity.
sound, even if a given region only comprises a few earthquakes. We present a
summary of how this approach was used for the Pacific Earthquake Engineering
Research center (PEER) NGA-East project. Joint Inversion of Surface Wave Dispersion and Receiver Functions for
Crustal Structure in Oklahoma
GUO, H., Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; HERRMANN, R. B., Saint
Hybrid Empirical Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for the Gulf Coast Louis University, St. Louis, MO; SU, H., Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO
Region
HAJI-SOLTANI, A., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, hjsltani@ The surge in seismicity in Oklahoma in 2014 raises questions about the actual
locations of the earthquakes in the upper crust. The key to answering this is an
memphis.edu; PEZESHK, S., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, spezeshk@
improved crustal model that explains as many observations as possible: Love and
memphis.edu; ZANDIEH, A., Lettis Consultants International, Inc, Boulder,
Rayleigh wave phase and group velocity dispersion, teleseismic receiver functions
CO, arash.zandieh@live.com
and some unique transverse motions observed at distances less than 100 km that are
The main purpose of this study is to develop a new GMPE for the Gulf Coast characteristic of rays reverberating in a basin. The surface wave dispersion data set
using a hybrid empirical method. The Gulf is a wide sedimentary region which consists of over 300,000 Love/Rayleigh phase/group values obtained from ambient
is centrally located between the eastern Rocky Mountains (western side) and the noise cross-correlation of BH channels of the transportable Array of EarthScope
Appalachian Mountains (eastern side). It also includes the New Madrid seismic to periods as short as 2 seconds. Station coverage is dense enough to perform
zone within the Mississippi embayment. Considering western North America as tomography on a 25 x 25 km grid that should be able to image shallow geological
the host region, we will use five new NGA-WEST2 GMPEs developed by the structures. The 1-D velocity models derived by a joint inversion of dispersion and
Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research center. For the required seismological receiver This test also provides constraints on the earthquake depths in relation to
parameters in WNA, we will use Zandieh and Pezeshk (2015) results in which a the geological structure.
set of point-source inversions have been performed to match the median NGA-
West2 GMPEs for moment magnitudes less than 6.0 and rupture distances up to Structure of the Moho in Northern New York and New England Using Seismic
200 km for a NEHRP site class B/C. For ENA, we will use the most recent available Refraction and Receiver Function Observations
seismological parameters in the literature. A moment magnitude range of 4.0 to CIPAR, J., Boston College, Weston, MA, john.cipar@bc.edu
8.0 and rupture distances of up to 1000 km will be considered. The new GMPE
is derived for the 5%-damped pseudo-acceleration response spectra for a reference Despite 100 years of study, the nature of the boundary between the continental
hard-rock site with V s30 =3000 m/s. crust and underlying mantle (the Mohorovicic discontinuity or “Moho”) is

on 09 October 2018
problematical. In places, the boundary appears to be sharp while in other regions Algorithm inversion, which provides a more exhaustive search of the model space
modeling indicates that the boundary is a complex transition zone. Most workers and a quantitative ranking of the relative fits of the models tested. The best models
posit that the Moho is a chemical change from rocks that are predominantly for each station were then compared to the models for nearby stations. Regional
mafic composition in the lower crust to peridotite of the uppermost mantle. Many scale features including a crustal discontinuity at about 20 km depth and Moho
techniques have been used to investigate the Moho over the past century. Andrija at 35-40 km can be correlated from one station to another allowing for a pseudo-
Mohorovicic discovered the boundary by timing seismic waves generated by a 1909 3D model to be developed. These features are also seen in models developed via
Yugoslavian earthquake. Modern refraction and wide angle reflection studies have other methods. The structural models do not indicate any significant difference in
been carried out in numerous regions, and receiver function waveforms have been velocity structure between the seismic and aseismic regions. Small scale structural
modeled to determine the depth to the Moho and its reflection characteristics. differences cannot be completely ruled out.
In this paper, I will make use of two independent data sets to study the Moho
structure in northern New York and New England. The 1988 Ontario-New York-
New England Seismic Refraction experiment was conducted by the US Geological Peverly Brook Scarp and Lineament of Southeastern New Hampshire: A Late
Survey in order to study the transition between the Paleozoic Appalachian and Pleistocene or Younger Fault Scarp?
Grenville-age Adirondack mountain ranges. The refraction model indicates a sharp MARPLE, R. T., Fort Irwin, CA, ronmarple@verizon.net; ALTAMURA, R. J.,
Moho at 40 km depth beneath the Vermont Appalachians, and at 41 km beneath Consulting Geologist, State College, PA, raltamura@comcast.net; HURD, J. D.,
the Adirondacks (Hughes and Luetgert, 1991, 1992). EarthScope TA stations The University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, james.hurd_jr@uconn.edu
are currently installed at locations nearly coincident with the refraction profile,
and several permanent stations have operated close to the profile for many years, Digital enhancements of high-resolution light detection and ranging
providing a wealth of data. The crustal reverberation formulation of Haskell (LiDAR) airborne data in central New England has led to the discovery of a 30-km-
(1962) will be used to model the measured receiver functions to determine the long geomorphic lineament in southeastern New Hampshire trending ∼N10◦ E
character of the Moho at locations along the profile. The refraction profile can be that we have named the Peverly Brook lineament (PBL). The lineament is formed
used as a form of “ground truth” to constrain the depth to the Moho and seismic by the collinear alignment of a 12-km-long straight segment of the Piscataqua
velocities within the crust, thereby allowing inversion for the Moho structure. River, Peverly Brook just north of Great Bay and a 10-km-long linear drainage
pattern just south of Great Bay. A 3-km-long, east-facing scarp occurs along the
central part of the lineament just south of the Piscataqua River. This scarp appears
Comparison of Magnitude Scales at Very Short Distances: The Charlevoix, to be a late Pleistocene or younger fault scarp based on the apparent vertical
Quebec, Seismic Zone displacement of late Pleistocene-age shallow marine, glacial, and post-glacial water-
BENT, A. L., Geological Survey of Canada, Ottawa, ON Canada; VADNAIS, F., laid deposits, as well as a kettle hole. The scarp height ranges from about 3-5 m to
Université de Québec à Montréal, Montreal, QC, Canada, fvadnais@gmail.com the south to as much as ∼15 m near its northern end. If caused by faulting, then
this feature is the first late Pleistocene or younger fault scarp to be discovered along
In eastern Canada, the Nuttli (MN ) scale is the most commonly used magnitude
scale. The original Richter, ML , scale is used only when the Lg phase is non-existent the US Atlantic margin.
or highly attenuated, generally for earthquakes recorded at distances of less than 50 The Peverly Brook lineament traverses an apparent pull-apart basin at Great
km or earthquakes occurring in oceanic crust. In the Charlevoix, Quebec, Seismic Bay that we recently proposed to have formed by a right-step offset in the proposed
southwest continuation of the NE-trending South Portland fault zone. This spatial
Zone the station density is such that it is possible to routinely locate earthquakes
of magnitude 1.0 or smaller. Magnitudes for these smallest earthquakes are usually relationship suggests that the Peverly Brook lineament may represent the surface
ML . For some slightly larger earthquakes, the MN values are based on readings expression of a fault associated with the right-step offset. Although little historical
seismicity has occurred near this feature, further studies should be undertaken to
at a single station as the earthquakes may not be well-recorded at large distances.
Establishing a magnitude relation between MN calculated at appropriate distances determine if it is capable of generating large earthquakes.
and MN or ML calculated at close distances would enable more magnitude data
to be used for the small earthquakes and a magnitude recurrence relation to be New Faults Imaged Beneath the Daytona Beach Sand Blow Lineament near
established over a wider magnitude range. Using data from earthquakes occurring Marianna, Arkansas
within the Charlevoix Seismic Zone for which mn was reported as the preferred ODUM, J. K., U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO, odum@usgs.gov; TUTTLE,
magnitude we calculated ML and mN from stations at less than 50 km from the
epicenter and compared them to the official magnitudes. The MN values from M. P., M. Tuttle and Associates, Georgetown, ME, mptuttle@earthlink.net;
close stations were much closer to the expected magnitudes of the earthquake than WILLIAMS, R. A., U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO, rawilliams@usgs.gov;
were the ML values. ML underestimates the magnitude by about 1 magnitude unit STEPHENSON, W. J., U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO, wstephens@
whereas the mN (close) values were about 0.15 units larger than the presumed usgs.gov; AL-SHUKRI, H. J., University of Arkansas, Little Rock, AR,
magnitude suggesting that MN would be a better measure of the earthquake size hjalshukri@ualr.edu
even when calculated out of range. We also evaluated the effect of using hypocentral In June 2010, the USGS acquired high-resolution P-wave seismic-reflection data
distance instead of epicentral distance for earthquakes at less than 50 km but found to look for faults beneath a linear trend of early to mid-Holocene earthquake-
that the difference was not significant in most cases. induced sand blows south of Marianna, Arkansas. The Daytona Beach sand blow
deposits are located in east-central Arkansas about 75 km southwest of Memphis,
Crustal Structure of the St. Lawrence Corridor from Teleseismic Receiver Tennessee, and about 80 km south of the southwestern end of the New Madrid
Functions and a Temporary Broadband Array seismic zone. Previous studies of these sand blows indicate that they were produced
BENT, A. L., Geological Survey of Canada, Ottawa, ON Canada, abent@ between 5,350 and 10,150 years B.P. (before present). Based on their size and
nrcan.gc.ca; KAO, H., Geological Survey of Canada, Sidney, BC Canada, similarity to sand blows generated by the magnitude (M7+) 1811-1812 New
hkao@nrcan.gc.ca Madrid earthquakes, it has been speculated that they may have been caused by
earthquakes of similar magnitude outside of the New Madrid seismic zone. The
Three of the most active seismic zones in eastern Canada (Charlevoix, West seismic profiles reveal a previously unknown zone of near-vertical faults in the 100
Quebec and the Lower St. Lawrence) are located along the St. Lawrence River. to 1200 m depth range below the 10-17-km long sand blow trend. These faults
They are separated by regions of very low seismicity. The high level of activity along are expressed as vertical discontinuities with the largest displacement fault showing
the St. Lawrence corridor relative to adjacent regions is reasonably well understood about 40 m of west side up displacement at the top of the Paleozoic section at
but the variations in seismicity along the St. Lawrence are not. Whether the about 1100 m depth. There is about 20 m of folding on reflections within the
difference is physical or temporal has implications for seismic hazard assessment in Eocene strata at 400 m depth. The increasing displacement with depth suggests
this heavily populated region. To evaluate the former, several temporary broadband long-term recurrent faulting. Current field evidence suggests that the sand blow
seismometers were installed along the St. Lawrence River in the region from the lineament may be up to 17 km in length; the strike and precise orientation of
Charlevoix Seismic Zone, northeast of Quebec City, to Montreal to fill in gaps in the fault zone is still unknown. While ground shaking from these faults could
broadband coverage by the Canadian National Seismograph Network (CNSN). be the source of the sand blows along the lineament trace, it is not known if
Stations were installed for about two years and then moved to new locations. Data these faults are Holocene active. Other potential seismogenic structures in the
from these thirteen temporary sites and five stations of the US Transportable area could also be the source energy for the Dayton Beach sand blows. Imaged
Array, which were very close to the St. Lawrence River have been evaluated as faulting and the numerous sand blow features at this site add to a growing list of
were ten stations of the CNSN. The crustal structure beneath each station was potentially-active fault hazards discovered in the last two decades that are within
modeled using teleseismic receiver function analysis. Preliminary models obtained the Mississippi embayment region but outside of the modern New Madrid seismic
using a simple linear inversion were used as starting models for a Neighborhood zone.

on 09 October 2018
Quantifying the Variability of Finite Earthquake Source Processes with 1-
Linking Ground Motion and Earthquake Source Point and 2-Point Statistics
SONG, S. G., Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Daejeon,
Variability (SSA/ESC Joint Session) Korea, sgsong@kigam.re.kr
Poster Session · Tuesday · 21 April · Exhibit Hall A
Accurate prediction of ground motion intensity and its variability is an essential
element in seismic hazard assessment. Complex earthquake rupture processes can
affect ground motion characteristics significantly, particularly in the near-source
Do We Need to Consider Off-Fault Material Heterogeneities in Dynamic region for large events. I propose to quantify the variability of finite earthquake
Rupture Simulations? source processes with 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source
MA, X., University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, xiaoma5@illinois.edu; parameters. 1-point statistics is a marginal probability density function at a given
ELBANNA, A. E., University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, elbanna2@illinois. location on the fault. Both mean and standard deviation are two main representative
edu parameters in the Gaussian distribution. 2-point statistics is composed of both
auto and cross-correlation. Autocorrelation controls the heterogeneity of each
The velocity structure in the lithosphere is quite complex and is rarely source parameters while cross-correlation controls coupling between source
homogenous. Wave reflection, transmission, and diffraction from the different parameters. The correlation is an efficient metric in quantifying earthquake
inhomogeneities are expected to affect rupture propagation on embedded faults. source characteristics because they predominantly control the variability of the
Here, we report on our ongoing work on modeling dynamic rupture in an elastic source parameters in a multi-dimensional space. They also help to understand
domain with heterogeneous velocity structure with the objective of determining the effect of earthquake source on ground motion variability in a systematic
the conditions on the magnitude and distribution of heterogeneities that will and consistent way. In this presentation, I particularly emphasize the effect of
make them relevant to dynamic rupture propagation. We use the Finite Element fracture energy on source correlation statistics. I perform a set of spontaneous
method (Pylith) to simulate rupture on a 2D in-plane fault embedded in an dynamic rupture model simulations under the slip-weakening friction law, each
elastic full space. Absorbing boundary conditions are used around the edges of the with a different strategy in generating input fracture energy distributions. I
domain to simulate an infinite extension in all directions. The fault operates under find that the correlation structures of kinematic source parameters can be
linear slip-weakening friction law. First, we conduct a preliminary investigation significantly affected by the input fracture energy distribution because it plays
on the effect of an idealized single inclusion with a different velocity than an important role in controlling the temporal evolution of rupture process.
the surrounding bulk. Then, we generate a random field with three different These results imply that it is important to constrain the fracture energy stably
autocorrelation function Gaussian, Exponential and Von Karman. Our results by observational data, or at least to test a wide range of variability in generating
suggest that the orientation of the heterogeneity plays a key role. Inclusions fracture energy distributions in dynamic rupture modeling for source correlation
extending for a longer distance parallel to the fault strike have in general a studies.
larger influence on the rupture characteristics (including peak slip rate, rupture
speed, transition length to supershear) than those extending normal to the fault.
We have also found that isolated inclusions may lead to unexpected dynamical Hybrid Broadband Ground Motion Simulation Using Both Dynamic and
behavior including rupture propagation through the energetically forbidden zone, Stochastic Methods: Application to the Central Marmara Fault (Turkey)
defined by the Rayleigh and shear wave speeds, as well as transient propagation HERRERO, A. F., Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma,
in the supersonic regime. Our model predicts that dynamic propagation is less Italy, andre.herrero@ingv.it; AOCHI, H., Risks and Prevention Direction,
sensitive to velocity structures with short correlation length and features that are Bureau de Recherches Géologiques, Orléans, France, h.aochi@brgm.fr;
predominantly extending normal to the fault surface, Material heterogeneities with AKINCI, A., Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy,
larger correlation length which extend parallel to the fault surface may lead to a rich aybige.akinci@ingv.it
response
It is crucial to estimate quantitatively the ground motions for the expected
earthquake scenarios especially in the regions where the seismic potential in the
near future is highly recognized. Istanbul and its surrounding areas are warned
Broadband Ground Motions from Dynamic Models of Rupture on the Northern for the future high seismic risk in the Euro-Mediterranean region, especially
San Jacinto Fault, and Comparison with Precariously Balanced Rocks pronounced after the 1999 Izmit and Duzce earthquakes. The fundamental
LOZOS, J. C., Stanford University, Stanford, CA, jlozos@stanford.edu; question for this area and any other cases is that the probable rupture scenarios of
OLSEN, K. B., San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, kbolsen@ the target earthquake are uncertain, even if a seismic gap is relatively well identified.
mail.sdsu.edu; BRUNE, J. N., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, brune@ This is a critical problem in ground motion estimation. In this study we have
seismo.unr.edu; TAKEDATSU, R., San Diego State University, San Diego, simulated hybrid broadband ground motion scenarios in the Marmara region for
CA, rtakedatsu@sdsu.edu; BRUNE, R. J., , Costa Mesa, CA, richbrune@ the city of Istanbul. The calculations are conducted independently, but based on
sbcglobal.net; OGLESBY, D. D., University of Cailifornia, Riverside, CA, david. the common source parameters. The waveforms in the low frequency band (f<
oglesby@ucr.edu 1Hz) are modeled using the 3D Boundary Integral Equation – Finite Difference
Methods (BIEM/FDM) (Aochi & Ulrich, 2014). For the higher frequency band (f
Southern California’s San Jacinto Fault is geometrically complex, consisting of = 1Hz), we use the stochastic finite-fault model with a dynamic corner frequency
several major strands with smaller scale complexity within each strand. The two approach (Motazedian & Atkinson, 2005). The dynamic rupture simulations
northernmost strands, the Claremont and the Casa Loma-Clark, are separated by are carried out on a fault system consisting of non-planar multi segments. The
a 25-km long extensional stepover with an average of 4 km separation between results show a large variability in terms of source characteristics reflecting the
the strands. We use a combined modeling method to assess probable rupture resultant dynamically simulated scenarios. In order to generate the stochastic high-
and ground motion behaviors for this stepover. First, dynamic rupture modeling frequency ground motion simulations, we used region-specific spectral parameters
on geometrically complex fault strands embedded in a state-of-the-art 3D crustal from Akinci et al. (2006). The high frequency parts have been added only on events
velocity model is used to generate a series of scenario earthquakes. We then use with the higher magnitudes (M >7.0). The broadband ground motions computed
the resulting near-fault low-frequency (<1 Hz) ground motion time histories with this approach are validated by comparing peak ground acceleration (PGA),
to generate ensemble broadband synthetic seismograms with a hybrid approach. peak ground velocity (PGV), and spectral acceleration (SA) with recently proposed
These synthetics are then validated against leading Ground Motion Prediction ground motion prediction equations (GMPE).
Equations (GMPEs), and compared with a distribution of precariously balanced
rocks (PBRs) near the fault to constrain our results and assess shaking hazard for
the region surrounding the fault. Our dynamic models produce sources between Kinematic Rupture Characterization for Ground Motion Simulation of Shallow
M5.4 and M6.9, with rupture limits imposed by sharp contrasts in fault stress, or Crustal Earthquakes
by geometrical barriers. The main stepover serves as a primary barrier to rupture in GRAVES, R. W., U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA, rwgraves@usgs.gov;
our model, producing event sizes that are consistent with the historical behavior of PITARKA, A., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA,
the San Jacinto Fault. The largest broadband synthetics are consistent with GMPEs pitarka1@llnl.gov
and the distribution of PBRs, none of which experience accelerations that produce
toppling probabilities significantly higher than zero. Thus, while the PBRs do not Kinematic rupture characterizations prescribe earthquake slip as a function
rule out any of our model scenarios, they confirm that our models produce realistic of space and time without explicit consideration of the underlying physical
rupture extents and shaking. Our model results are in contrast to current seismic parameters. Advantages of the kinematic approach are computational efficiency
hazard maps for this area, which reflect peak ground accelerations that likely would and avoiding the need to specify poorly constrained physical parameters.
have toppled the PBRs. Drawbacks include 1) lack of knowledge on the ranges and possible correlations

on 09 October 2018
among the required kinematic parameters (e.g., slip, slip-rate, rupture speed), estimated focal mechanisms have uncertainies. For moderate earthquakes, we use
and 2) potential inconsistencies between the resulting kinematic models and the the S-wave of Hi-net data (the distance is less than 100km), and apply an EGF
underlying physics. Many of the recent advances in kinematic characterizations are method to them to remove the site and path effects. Using our improved method,
guided by dynamic simulations, which are utilized to develop simplified relations estimated radiated seismic energy for strike-slip earthquakes becomes smaller than
for determining and specifying the required parameters (e.g., the “pseudo-dynamic previous study, and the standard deviation of energy also decrease. It indicates our
approach”, Guatteri et al, 2004). Our approach follows these same basic principles new method can estimate radiated energy more stable. However, large strike-slip
and starts by generating a random slip distribution that has a roughly wavenumber- earthquakes have from 5 to 6 times larger radiated energy than dip-slip events as
squared falloff. The rupture speed is specified to average about 75-80% of the shown in some previous studies. In addition, we will show the result for moderate
local shear wave speed and the average slip rise time follows self-similar scaling. events, and discuss the focal mechanism dependence of radiated energy in both two
However, both of these parameters include significant local perturbations that are results.
partially correlated with slip. In addition, we incorporate shallow (< 5km) and
deep (> 15km) “weak” zones characterized by a decrease in rupture speed and
an increase in rise time, which are designed to represent velocity-strengthening The Global SCARDEC Source Database to Constrain Ground Motion
regions within the crust. Additional refinements currently being tested include Simulation Input Parameters and their Variability
the incorporation of geometric perturbations to the fault surface (e.g., Trugman COURBOULEX, F., Nice Sophia Antipolis University, Nice, France,
and Dunham, 2014) that are correlated with variations in rupture speed and rise courboulex@geoazur.unice.fr; CAUSSE, M., Université Joseph Fourier,
time. These perturbations act to increase the simulated level of shorter period Grenoble, France, mathieu.causse@ujf-grenoble.fr; VALLÉE, M., Institut de
(< 1 sec) ground motions, as well as homogenize radiation pattern effects in Physique du Globe, Paris, France, vallee@ipgp.fr; CHOUNET, A., Institut de
this same bandwidth; both of which move the simulations closer to the statistical Physique du Globe, Paris, France, chounet@ipgp.fr; ALFONSO-NAYA, V.,
characteristics of observed motions. Instituto Geofisica, Quito, Ecuador, vnaya@igepn.edu.ec
We use the new global database of Source Time Functions (STF) and focal
Variability of Long-Period Ground Motions from M7 Earthquake Simulations mechanisms proposed by Vallée (2013) using the automatic SCARDEC method
on the Salt Lake City Segment, Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah (Vallée et al, 2011) to constrain the earthquakes rupture duration and its
MOSCHETTI, M. P., US Geological Survey, Golden, CO, mmoschetti@ variability. This database has the advantage of being very consistent since all events
usgs.gov; HARTZELL, S. H., US Geological Survey, Golden, CO; RAMIREZ- with Mw> 5.8 that occurred during the last 20 years were reanalyzed with the same
GUZMAN, L., UNAM, Mexico City, Mexico; ANGSTER, S., Univ. of Nevada, method and the same station configuration. We analyze the shallow earthquakes
Reno, Reno, NV; FRANKEL, A., US Geological Survey, Seattle, WA only (prof < 35 km) and separate the ones that occurred in a subduction context
(subduction-events) from the other ones (non-subduction-events). We use high-
In support of the development of physics-based seismic hazard maps for the quality criteria for the STFs which results in the selection of 669 events (332
Wasatch Front, Utah, we investigate the long-period (T=1 s) ground-motion subduction-events, 338 non-subduction-events) with 5.9<Mw <8. We obtain
variability from ninety-six finite-element simulations of M7 earthquakes on the that for a given magnitude, STF duration is roughly log-normally distributed
Salt Lake City segment (SLCS) of the Wasatch fault zone. Our kinematic and that STFs are longer for subduction-events than for non-subduction ones.
rupture models employ a magnitude-invariant dynamic stress drop methodology, The resulting stress drop is 2.5 smaller. Moreover STF duration variability does
which produces ground motions that are consistent with observations from the significantly change with magnitude. We obtain a sigma value of the stress drop
NGA-W database. Variations in the realization and the correlation length of of about 1 (in natural log). This value is lower than the ones generally obtained
the slip field, hypocenter location, average rupture velocity and slip velocity are from corner frequency analyses with global databases (˜1.5) but still stronger
selected to be consistent with observed M7 normal-faulting earthquakes. Ground- than the sigma deduced from the between-event variability of ground motion
motion amplifications are greatest in the sedimentary basins to the north (Weber prediction equations (˜0.5). In a second part, we show how the constraints
basin) and south (Utah basin) of the SLCS, as is ground-motion variability. obtained on the duration of the STF and its variability can be directly used
The long-period ground motions (PGV and 3.5 and 7 s response spectral (without using the stress drop value) for ground-motion predictions using a point-
accelerations) are highly sensitive to the kinematic parameters used to construct source Empirical Green’s function method. As an example we show the results
the rupture models. On average, rupture velocity and the slip velocity have the of the simulation of a crustal earthquake in the Quito basin and compare the
greatest effect on earthquake ground motions, with the effects of slip velocity results obtained on the accelerometric network and its variability with GMPEs
showing a strong dependence on the measurement frequency. The slip-field predictions.
realization and hypocenter location contribute to substantial spatial variability in
the ground motions, with earthquakes rupturing to the north and south exciting
high ground motions in the Weber and Utah basins, respectively. Correlation Subduction Interface Fault Scaling Relationships to Facilitate Rapid Ground-
length perturbations also cause spatial variability in ground motions, though with Shaking and Impact Assessments
relatively reduced amplitudes compared to the slip realization and hypocenter ALLEN, T. I., Natural Resources Canada, Sidney, BC, Canada, tallen@
parameters. The significant sensitivity of the simulated earthquake ground motions nrcan.gc.ca; HAYES, G. P., U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO, ghayes@
to variations in the kinematic rupture parameters highlights the need for improved usgs.gov
knowledge about the earthquake source in order to properly capture ground-
motion variability for seismic hazard analyses. Alternative fault scaling relationships are developed for MW 7.0–9.6 subduction
interface earthquakes. The scaling applies width saturation for large-magnitude
Focal Mechanism Dependence of Radiated Seismic Energy for Moderate and earthquakes where the thermal profiles of subduction zones limit the depth of
Large Earthquakes seismogenic rupture, and consequently, the down-dip extent of significant ground-
KIUCHI, R., DPRI, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan, kiuchi@eqh. motion generation. The sensitivity of the scaling relationships is evaluated against
dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp; MORI, J. J., DPRI, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan, several variables to assess the need for correction factors, including: fault dip at the
mori@eqh.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp centroid, geographic region, and depth to the bottom of rupture. While regional
perturbations in fault scaling could be identified, preliminary analysis suggests that
Radiated seismic energy is defined as the total wave energy and can be used to there is little rationale for implementing correction factors based on the limited
understand the source physics. Up to now, a lot of researchers have tried to datasets in some regions. The utility of the interface-specific scaling relations for
estimate the radiated energy for a wide range of earthquakes, but the reason why both in-slab and outer-rise earthquakes is evaluated through hypothesis testing. A
the variation of estimated radiated energy exists is not understood. One of the process is also developed to use these scaling relations for the automatic generation
possibilities to find the factor of this variation is that large strike-slip events have of approximate finite rupture areas, projected onto a pre-defined suite of global
higher radiated energy than normal and thrust events from teleseismic P-waves subduction interface models (Hayes et al., 2012, Geophys. J. Int.). Ground-motion
(e.g., Choy and Boatwright, 1995; Perez-Campos and Beroza, 2001). However, fields are calculated using these scaling-relation-based “rapid fault models” as well
estimates of radiated energy from teleseismic P-waves can be unstable due to as both: 1) point sources and; 2) published fault models that are calculated in
the small values for radiation pattern with take-off angles near the nodes of the the hours, days, or even months following significant global earthquakes (Hayes
focal mechanisms. On the other hand, for small and moderate events, similar et al., this meeting). Relative to the point source-only estimates, the rapid fault
dependency have not been obtained ever. In this study, we explore about radiated models provide ground-shaking estimates that are in closer agreement to final
energy dependence on focal mechanism for moderate (M˜5) and large earthquakes ground motions calculated using published models in subduction environments.
(M>7). For large earthquakes, We use teleseismic waveform data recorded on the Consequently, automating this approach could provide improved preliminary
GSN and the method of Boatwright and Choy (1986) with our improved radiation assessment of potential earthquake impacts prior to the availability of models based
pattern correction. It considers a range of values for strike, dip and rake, because on more computationally expensive finite-fault inversions.

on 09 October 2018
that effect, a large validation exercise was completed for four methodologies
Numerical Modeling of Earthquake Ground Motion, implemented on the Southern California Earthquake Center Broadband Platform
(SCEC BBP). Through the validation process, the methodologies were further
Rupture Dynamics and Seismic Wave Propagation improved and deemed ready to be used for the development of magnitude scaling
Poster Session · Tuesday · 21 April · Exhibit Hall A relations for ground motions. To develop the magnitude-scaling models, we
perform simulations with the latest version of the BBP (14.10, with the most
recent updates for the EUS) for a set of forward scenarios, in order to assess how
Comparisons of Kinematic Rupture Models Generated With an Asperity the simulations scale with magnitude in FAS and PSA space; and to extrapolate
Modeling Technique and GP2014 Method to large M. We use 4 simulation methods and 16 randomized source realizations
PITARKA, A., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, for each scenario. The forward scenario events range from M5.0 to M8.0, with
pitarka1@llnl.gov; GRAVES, R., USGS, Pasadena, CA, rwgraves@usgs.gov; 3 depth to top of rupture (Ztor) cases each: 0, 5, and 10km. For each scenario,
SOMERVILLE, P., URS, Los Angeles, CA, paul.somerville@urs.com; recording stations are located in constant Rrup “half rings” on the foot wall side
IRIKURA, K., GeoResearch, Osaka, Japan, irikura@geor.or.jp; MIYAKE, of the fault. Stations are equally spaced along each half ring, at rupture distances
H., ERI University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, hiroe@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp in bands ranging from 5 to 100 km. In all, over 200,000 simulated time series
The kinematic rupture generator methodology based on a deterministic rupture are developed. We calculate ratios (in FAS and PSA space) for each scenario
asperity modeling approach has been widely used to model and simulate broadband relative to its M5.0 equivalent, and asses the scaling behavior of each simulation
ground motion using empirical or 3D synthetic Green’s functions (e.g. Irikura and method in multiple frequency bands and distance ranges, screening out models
Miyake, 2011). Its simplicity and efficiency at reproducing ground motion on a with un-physical behavior as necessary. The FAS ratios are fit to a M-scaling model
broad frequency range from earthquakes recorded in Japan makes it attractive to to obtain frequency- and distance-dependent scaling coefficients. Finally, these
developers and users of the Southern California Earthquake Center broadband coefficients are implemented in the PEER FAS-based models.
ground motion simulation platform. In our presentation we will show relevant
details of the rupture-modeling method, including computation of the stress Near-Field Rotational Strong Ground Motion Simulation Using an EGF
drop distribution and slip rate functions, inside and outside the asperity areas. Methodology and a New 6DOF Data Set
Comparisons of rupture models obtained with this method and GP2014 (Graves YIN, J., Tongji University, Shanghai, China, yjm_87@126.com; NIGBOR, R.,
and Pitarka, 2014) method will be used to illustrate the performance and University of California, Los Angeles, CA, nigbor@ucla.edu; CHEN, Q., Tongji
similarities of both techniques for simulating ground motion from a moderate Univeristy, Shanghai, China, chenqj@tongji.edu.cn
size earthquake in the frequency range of 0.05-1Hz. This work was performed
under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore Translational earthquake ground motions are well studied, but rotational ground
National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-06NA25946. Release Number: motions are largely ignored in both scientific and engineering ground motion
LLNL-ABS-665916 simulations. The rotational components could contribute significantly to strong
ground motions and to engineering structural response, especially in the near field.
For far-field earthquake ground motion, rotational components can be estimated
Seismic Source Spectra and Estimated Stress Drop from Complex Faulting
in terms of corresponding translational ground motion by using conventional
Behaviors
elastic wave theory. In the near field, a plane wave assumption will not apply and
WANG, Y., SDSU/UCSD, San Diego, CA, yow004@ucsd.edu; DAY, S. M., San
higher order terms dominate. Near-field rotations have been observed to be 10
Diego State University, San Diego, CA, sday@mail.sdsu.edu; SHEARER, P. M.,
to 100 times larger than those expected from classical theory. Simultaneous six-
IGPP/SIO/UCSD, La Jolla, CA, pshearer@ucsd.edu
component measurements are being accumulated at the Garner Valley Downhole
Earthquake source properties such as seismic moment and rupture extent are Array (GVDA), a very well-characterized and well-instrumented geotechnical array
routinely estimated from far-field body-wave amplitude spectra. Low-frequency in Southern California. Hundreds of six-degree-of-freedom ground motions with
spectral level, corner frequency, and the high-frequency spectral slope are often good signal quality and frequency range have been measured during past few years.
measured and combined to make inferences about physical parameters such This new 6DOF data set is used here for simulation of ground motions for large
as stress drop and radiated energy. Based on theoretical models (e.g., Brune, earthquakes. The Empirical Green’s Function (EGF) methodology, which has been
1970), some quantitative, but model-dependent, relations have been established widely used on translational earthquake simulation and strong ground motion
between far-field spectra and such physical parameters. Numerical simulations estimation, was extended to simulate the rotational strong ground motions in terms
of dynamic rupture, simplified to have specified constant rupture velocity of the weak rotational recording of small near-field earthquakes. The result was
(Madariaga,1976, Kaneko and Shearer, 2014), have extended the scope of available validated using a pair of moderate distance events, comparing both translational
models. Models with spontaneous propagation and stopping of rupture may and rotational components. The simulated rotational strong ground motions were
improve our understanding of the relationship between spectral parameters and analyzed to rationally study the characteristics of translations and rotations in time
the physical parameters of rupture. We use a simplified model of confined and frequency domains for simulated M5-M7 near-field earthquakes on the San
rupture, propagating and stopping spontaneously on a fault with self-similar Jacinto Fault near the GVDA site.
surface roughness (roughness amplitude-to-wavelength ratios α in the range 0.001
to 0.01), to investigate the relationship of spectral slope and corner frequency 3D numerical Simulations of Earthquake Ground Motion in Sedimentary
to physical parameters of the rupture. For rough-fault models, high frequencies Basins: Verification and Comparison of Methods
are radiated throughout the rupture process, rather than being controlled by CHALJUB, E., ISTerre, Grenoble, France, Emmanuel.Chaljub@ujf-
discrete stopping phases associated with artificially imposed edges of the rupture grenoble.fr; MOCZO, P., Comenius University Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia,
area, as in constant rupture-velocity models. The apparent spectral slope, as moczo@fmph.uniba.sk; KRISTEK, J., Comenius University Bratislava,
determined by standard methods used for fitting empirical spectra, increases with Bratislava, Slovakia, kristek@fmph.uniba.sk; MAUFROY, E., ISTerre, Grenoble,
roughness α. For low α, the slopes are around ˜ -2. Preliminary analysis of corner France, Emmeline.Maufroy@ujf-grenoble.fr; DE MARTIN, F., BRGM, Orleans,
frequencies indicates that the spontaneous model reduces the systematic azimuthal France, F.DeMartin@brgm.fr; KRISTEKOVA, M., Slovak Academy of Sciences,
dependencies produced by fixed-rupture-velocity models. We also explore the Bratislava, Slovakia, kristekova@savba.sk; CIPCIAR, A., Slovak Academy of
effect of fault roughness on the statistical relationships between source parameters Sciences, Bratislava, Slovakia, geofanci@savba.sk; HOLLENDER, F., CEA,
(e.g., average stress drop and radiated energy) and the spectral parameters.
Cadarache, France, fabrice.hollender@cea.fr; BARD, P.-Y., ISTerre, Grenoble,
France; KLIN, P., INOGS, Italy; Priolo, E., INOGS, Italy; ZHANG, Z., USTC,
SCEC Broadband Platform Simulations for the PEER NGA-East Project Hefei, China; ZHANG, W., USTC, Hefei, China; CHEN, X., USTC, Hefei,
BAYLESS, J. R., AECOM / UC Davis, Los Angeles, CA, jeff.bayless@ China
aecom.com; GOULET, C. A., University of California, Berkeley, CA, goulet@
berkeley.edu; HOLLENBACK, J., University of California, Berkeley, CA, Lessons learned from the SCEC and ESG2006 numerical exercises led to
jhollenback@berkeley.edu Euroseistest Verification and Validation Project focused on the challenging
sedimentary Mygdonian basin near Thessaloniki, Greece. Based on differences
Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) is coordinating between 3D numerical predictions for the most realistic available basin model, we
a comprehensive multidisciplinary program to develop Next Generation defined four canonical stringent models of sediments overlying an elastic halfspace
Attenuation Relationships for the Central and Eastern North-America region aiming to identify reasons for differences. Two models are 1D models: 1D-sharp
(NGA-East). Because the NGA-East ground motion database is limited to events with three homogeneous layers and 1D-smooth with smooth velocity distribution.
less than M6, the approach was to support the empirical ground motion model The 2D-sharp and 2D-smooth models are extensions of the 1D models to
development with physics-based broadband ground motion simulations. To an asymmetric sedimentary valley. In all cases, 3D wavefields include strongly

on 09 October 2018
dispersive surface waves in the sediments. We compared simulations by the Fourier Near-Field Coseismic Tilt Motions Measured By Collocated High-Rate Gps
pseudo-spectral method (FPSM), the Legendre spectral-element method (SEM) and Accelerometers During the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake
and two formulations of the finite-difference method (FDM-S and FDM-C) up to and Their Comparison to Synthetics Predicted With Kinematic Source
4Hz. The accuracy of individual solutions and level of agreement between solutions Models
vary with type of seismic waves and depend on the smoothness of the velocity GENG, J., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, CA, jgeng@
model. We found that an improper discrete representation of the interfaces can ucsd.edu; BOCK, Y., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, CA,
cause inaccurate numerical modelling of surface waves. Our study underlines need ybock@ucsd.edu; CROWELL, B. W., University of Washington, Seattle,
for further development and verification of the numerical methods. A code that WA, crowellb@u.washington.edu; GOLDBERG, D. E., Scripps Institution
is intended for numerical prediction of earthquake ground motion should be of Oceanography, San Diego, CA, degoldberg@ucsd.edu; MELGAR, D., UC
verified through stringent models that would make it possible to test the most Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, dmelgar@berkeley.edu; WANG, R., GFZ German
important aspects of accuracy. We present an interactive web interface for verifying Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany, wang@gfz-potsdam.de;
numerical-modeling methods in seismology – SISMOWINE: SeISmic MOdeling ZHANG, Y., Peking University, Beijing, China, zhang.yong@pku.edu.cn
Web INterfacE, http://www.sismowine.org/. With SISMOWINE, participants
can calculate solutions for the defined models using their numerical or analytical Although seismometers record both translational and rotational motions, these
computational method, and quantitatively and graphically compare the solutions cannot easily be separated. Coseismic rotations are normally presumed negligible
with those submitted by other participants. and removed through high-pass filtering. However, from dense seismic arrays (tens
of meters spacing), near-field rotations can actually be 10-100 times larger than
expected from classical elasticity theory. Furthermore, rotational seismometers
Modeling of 1D Wave Propagation in Nonlinear Soils using the Elasto-plastic are expensive and difficult to install in the field. We describe a more practical
Iwan Model by Four Numerical Schemes seismogeodetic approach where a high-rate GPS receiver is collocated with an
MERCERAT, E. D., CEREMA DTerMed, Nice, France, diego.mercerat@ accelerometer to separate tilt signals from translational motions. The resultant
cerema.fr; BONILLA-HIDALGO, F., IFSTTAR, Paris, France, luis- resolution in tilt is about 0.01 degrees, which is sufficient to capture near-
fabian.bonilla-hidalgo@ifsttar.f; DE MARTIN, F., BRGM, Orleans, field rotational signals from a large earthquake. The 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-
France, F.DeMartin@brgm.fr; DELAVAUD, E., IRSN, Paris, France, elise. Cucapah earthquake is such an example where we have available 14 seismogeodetic
delavaud@irsn.fr; GELIS, C., IRSN, Paris, France, celine.gelis@irsn.fr; collocations distributed between 80 and 200 km from the epicenter. One
GLINSKY, N., CEREMA IFSTTAR, Nice, France, nathalie.glinsky@ collocation at Pinon Flat Observatory consists of 3 accelerometers, which can
cerema.fr; KRISTEK, J., Comenius Univ, Bratislava, Slovakia, Jozef.Kristek@ deliver seismic array derived rotational motions. The 3 nearest collocations show
fmph.uniba.sk; MOCZO, P., Comenius Univ, Bratislava Univ, Peter.Moczo@ peak-to-peak tilts of up to 0.1 degrees in both North-South and East-West
fmph.uniba.sk; ORAL, E, IRSN, Paris France. elif.oral@irsn.fr; SANTISI, M. P. directions, and one of them manifests a static tilt of about 0.05 degrees. While
, Univ de Nice, France. msantisi@unice.fr; RICHTEROVA, A, Comenius Univ, tilt signals are more sensitive to local effects, a key question is whether and
Slovakia, Aneta.Richterova@fmph.uniba.sk how tilts carry extra information on the source. Therefore, several kinematic
source models, which are derived from near-field accelerograms, high-rate GPS
The international project PRENOLIN is focused on verification and validation displacements, and seismogeodetic waveforms, are used to predict the synthetic tilts
of numerical codes for ground motion simulations including nonlinear soil using a spherically symmetric Earth model. This comparison poses new insights on
rheologies. In this particular study, we present implementations of the elasto- whether and to what extent our current kinematic source modeling strategies can
plastic Iwan model (Iwan 1967) into numerical schemes based on finite-difference, accommodate tilts, and how this translates into improved strong motion maps. It is
finite element, spectral element and discontinuous Galerkin methods, and results expected that incorporating tilt waveforms into the source inversion might better
based on test numerical simulations. We study the amplification of ground motion constrain the rupture process and thus may improve our understanding of the
in a soft layer with nonlinear behavior overlying a half-space with linear behavior. source.
We assume a vertically incident plane SH wave with source-time function given
by a Gabor wavelet. We include different amplitude levels and frequency ranges.
Special attention is given to the hysteresis loops and the reversal points in the stress- Effect of Varying Dip Angle on the Dynamic Rupture of the Mw 7.2 El-Mayor
strain plane, and their effects on the computed seismograms and corresponding Cucapah Earthquake, April 4, 2010
transfer functions. We compare key aspects of the individual numerical schemes KYRIAKOPOULOS, C., UC Riverside, Riverside, CA, christos@ucr.edu;
and methods, and their advantages and disadvantages. OGLESBY, D., UC Riverside, Riverside, CA, david.oglesby@ucr.edu;
FUNNING, G. J., UC Riverside, Riverside, CA, gareth@ucr.edu
Modeling Long-period Seismic Waves in the Gulf Region from Distant Large The Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake represents a unique opportunity to
Earthquakes study the control that complex fault geometry has on rupture propagation. The
CAKTI, E., Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey, eser.cakti@boun.edu.tr; complex rupture pattern of this earthquake was expressed through a network
SESETYAN, K., Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey, karin@boun.edu.tr; of possibly connected fault segments with varying dip angles. In this work, we
MADARIAGA, R., Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris, France, madariag@ investigated the relation between rupture propagation and variable dip angle. Our
biotite.ens.fr; HARMANDAR, E., Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey, Finite Element (FE) model implements multiple fault segments with variable dip
ebru.harmandar@boun.edu.tr angles (from ˜45 degrees to vertical while moving from SE to NW) as constrained
by geodetic data inversions. The strike direction of the fault is constrained from
The Gulf region is surrounded by active earthquake source zones. In this study surface breaks collected in the field after the earthquake. To implement such
we construct a regional 3D velocity model and validate it by small to moderate a complicated fault surface, we are using an advanced FE mesh generator that
magnitude regional earthquakes recorded by the stations in the United Arab allows us to represent the changes in geometry and obtain smooth transitions
Emirates. The 3D velocity model extends from Qatar until the mid-Makran between individual fault segments. This method allows both along-strike and
zone in the east-west direction, and from the Saudi Arabian border in the south along-dip variations in fault geometry to be accurately reproduced. A precise
until the interior of the Zagros collision zone in the north. We identify major geometric characterization of the rupture surface is of fundamental importance for
regional earthquake sources, their seismo-tectonic characteristics and scenario an accurate investigation of the rupture dynamics. Using the 3D dynamic FE code
earthquakes based on seismological characteristics of past events. The simulation FaultMod, we perform a number of preliminary models of this earthquake. We
is carried out by code FD3D that uses the staggered-grid finite difference assume the nucleation point to be at the inferred hypocenter on the SE portion of
approach. A total of six earthquake scenarios representative of maximum credible our fault plane, as indicated by seismic data. We compare our final slip map with
earthquakes, are modeled for three major earthquake source zones in the Gulf previously existing slip distributions from geodetic models.
region, namely Makran, Zagros and Zendan-Minab. Two rupture scenarios for
each source zone are assumed: 2010 Chile and 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake The 1927 Jericho Earthquake Revisited – Comparison with Numerical Results
ruptures are adopted for the Makran zone; 1978 Tabas and 1985 Nahanni Using the Distributed Slip Model.
ruptures for the Zagros zone; and 1995 Kobe and 2004 Parkfield earthquake slip SHANI-KADMIEL, S., Ben Gurion University, Beer-Sheva, Israel,
models are used in the Zendan-Minab zone. A large number of three component kadmiel@post.bgu.ac.il; TSESARSKY, M., Ben Gurion University, Beer-
waveforms are produced from six rupture scenarios. All results are discussed Sheva, Israel, michatse@bgu.ac.il; GVIRTZMAN, Z., Geological Survey of Isral,
with particular attention paid to development long period waves that are critical Jerusalem, Israel
for high-rise buildings in the region, as very few buildings in the region and
elsewhere in the world are designed considering response spectral levels at long The Dead Sea Transform (DST) is the major seismic source in Israel and
periods. neighboring countries, with a proven seismic record: geological, archeological

on 09 October 2018
and historical. However, due to low seismicity rate strong earthquakes and their the shear-wave velocity of the medium. In particular, a combination of relatively
ground motions were not recorded in Israel. The last major earthquake on the longer source rise time, shallow source depth and high shear-wave velocity for
terrestrial part of the DST was the 1927 M 6.2 Jericho event, resulting in numerous vertically oriented fault planes can lead to severe underestimation of rotational
casualties and extensive structural damage. In absence of recorded ground motions motions. This is illustrated through numerical simulations for certain source
we concentrate our efforts on forward numerical modeling to estimate the ground functions.
motions during strong earthquakes. A reliable ground motion prediction must
account for site, path, and source effects. Assessment of site effect, which mainly Virtual Quake: The Software Formerly Known as Virtual California
depends on near-surface material, and assessment of path effect, that depends on SCHULTZ, K. W., University of California, Davis, CA, kwschultz@
the deeper geological structure, is constantly improved by geotechnical, geological ucdavis.edu; SACHS, M. K., University of California, Davis, CA, mksachs@
and geophysical investigations. Contrarily to these two effects, which remain ucdavis.edu; HEIEN, E. M., University of California, Davis, CA, emheien@
constant for a given area of interest, the earthquake rupture process and geometry ucdavis.edu; YODER, M. R., University of California, Davis, CA, mryoder@
varies from one earthquake to the other. To this end we have developed a generic, ucdavis.edu; TURCOTTE, D. L., University of California, Davis, CA,
physics based finite fault source with a smooth “pseudo-Gaussian” slip distribution dlturcotte@ucdavis.edu; DONNELLAN, A., California Institute of
on an elliptical rupture patch: the Distributed Slip Model (DSM). In this study Technology, Pasadena, CA, Andrea.Donnellan@jpl.nasa.gov; RUNDLE, J.
we compare the numerical ground motion predictions, using the DSM, with the B., University of California, Davis, CA, jbrundle@ucdavis.edu
intensity observations from the Jericho event. We calculate the Modified Mercalli
Intensity using the Wald et al., (1999) relations and compare our results with the Virtual Quake is an abstracted and improved version of Virtual California,
intensity data published by Avni et al., (2002) and Zohar and Marco (2012). This the boundary element code designed to explore the seismicity of today’s fault
task is a necessary step towards a reliable ground motion prediction in the state systems. Virtual Quake simulates any input fault network to produce seismic
of Israel and in other earthquake-prone areas with low seismicity rate and limited histories of 100,000 years or more. We illustrate the wide range of applications of
instrumental coverage. Virtual Quake by providing maps of co-seismic surface deformations, co-seismic
gravity changes, InSAR interferograms, in addition to a forecast of California
earthquake scenarios. Virtual Quake is now supported by the Computational
Homogenization of the Wave Equation for Interaction between Explosive Infrastructure for Geodynamics, is now available for download, and comes
Source and Local Heterogeneities with a user’s manual. We are preparing to release a suite of python tools for
BURGOS, G., French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission, analyzing and visualizing the simulation data. Virtual Quake download page:
Arpajon, France, gael.burgos@cea.fr; CAPDEVILLE, Y., Nantes Univeristy, <a href="http://geodynamics.org/software/vq/"> geodynamics.org/software/vq
Nantes, France, yann.capdeville@univ-nantes.fr; GUILLOT, L., French </a>
Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission , Arpajon, France,
laurent.guillot@cea.fr
We propose a new approach based on the homogenization method to take into

account the interactions between local heterogeneities and the seismic source. Objective Testing of PSHA & Earthquake Forecast Models
These interactions are one of the physical processes that can, in the case of an Poster Session · Tuesday · 21 April · Exhibit Hall A
explosive source, generate non-isotropic radiation. The homogenization technique
allows to take into account of the small-scales in the medium in an effective way,
for scales smaller than the minimum wavelength of the propagated wavefield, by Spectral Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for Sumatran Subduction
the computation of an upscaled medium and correctors for the source and the Interface Earthquakes based on Recorded Data in Peninsular Malaysia
receivers. The effect of small-scale heterogeneities near the source can be assessed ADNAN, A. B., University of Technology Malaysia, Johor Bahru, Johor,
through the source corrector. In this paper, we first analyze data from the Nevada Malaysia, azelan_fka_utm@yahoo.com, azlanadnan@utm.my; SHOUSHTARI,
Test Site (NTS) nuclear tests to quantify the relative contribution of isotropic and A. V., University of Technology Malaysia, Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia,
deviatoric parts in the radiation pattern of these explosions. Second, we conduct vsabdollah@gmail.com, abdollahvaezshoushtari@yahoo.com; HARITH,
a serie of 2-D and 3-D numerical simulations : the homogenization method is N. S., University of Technology Malaysia, Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia,
applied on various heterogeneous models to determine corrected sources. We harithsheena@gmail.com
use the Spectral Element Method as a solver of the wave equation to check the
accuracy of the homogenized solution by comparison to the reference solution. An appropriate estimation of seismic hazard of many parts of the world
We find that, for the NTS data, the deviatoric contribution to the seismic is significantly dependent on the selected spectral ground-motion prediction
moment is roughly equal to 35%. For various contrast in the elastic properties equations for both subduction interface and in-slab earthquakes that occur
of the heterogeneities, we show that the corrected sources computed by the in subduction zones of the earth. For example, the large magnitude, long
homogenization method contain a significant part of deviatoric contribution distance megathrust earthquakes along the Sumatran subduction interface region,
compared to the observations (30% for 30% of the 3-D elastic contrast of could affect the seismic hazard of Peninsular Malaysia remarkably. This study
heterogeneities). has attempted to develop new empirical spectral ground-motion prediction
equations (GMPEs) for distant Sumatran subduction interface earthquakes
based on the recorded ground-motions in Peninsular Malaysia. Since 2004,
On Adequacy of Plane-Wave Approximation for Evaluating Near-Field Malaysian Meteorological Department (MMD) has successfully installed a
Seismic Rotational Ground Motion: Case of SH Source network of seismic stations comprising of 28, three-component instrumentation.
SINGLA, V. K., Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh, India, Eleven seismic stations of this network are located on sandstone, granite, and
singlav.iitk@gmail.com; GUPTA, V. K., Indian Institute of Technology, rocky sites (National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site
Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh, India class B with shear-wave velocity values; 760 m/s < VS ≤ 1500 m/s) in
The adequacy of plane-wave approximation for evaluating seismic rotational Peninsular Malaysia. The response spectra database has been compiled from the
ground motions from translational motions in the near-field regions of earthquakes existing ground-motion recordings from Sumatran subduction interface events
is tested for the case of a simple, two-dimensional, kinematic dislocation SH (shear) of moment magnitude (M) 6.7-9.0 with hypocentral distance (Rhypo) of 491-
source buried in a homogenous elastic half-space. The translational motion for this 1013 km. The data from the large Sumatran megathrust earthquakes with
purpose is obtained from the exact solution to the kinematic dislocation problem. M ≥ 7.0 such as Aceh earthquake with M 9.0 in 2004, Nias earthquake
The rotational motion is then synthesized (from the computed translational in 2005 with M 8.6, and 2007 earthquake with M 8.5 near Bengkulu in
Sumatra Island, are included in the spectral database. The developed ground-
motion) by assuming that the translational motion results from plane-waves
incident at the free surface at an angle made by the line joining the source and motion relations were proposed to predict peak ground acceleration (PGA),
receiver with the vertical. The amplitudes of the synthesized motion are then peak ground velocity (PGV), and 5% damped pseudo-acceleration response
compared with those obtained from the exact solution of the kinematic dislocation spectrum (PSA) for rock sites-NEHRP site class B. The results of the present
study could be applicable to seismic hazard assessment projects of Peninsular
problem. The analyses are carried out in both frequency and time domain.
From the former analysis it is concluded that the plane-wave approximation can Malaysia.
underestimate rotational Fourier amplitudes by several orders in near-field regions
for the seismic waves having wavelengths of the same order or longer than the depth New Empirical Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for East Malaysia and
of source, particularly when the fault planes are vertically oriented. The results of Borneo Island
time domain analysis indicate that the adequacy of plane-wave approximation is ADNAN, A. B., University of Technology Malaysia, Johor bahru, Johor,
sensitive to the source function parameters, source geometry, source depth and Malaysia, azelan_fka_utm@yahoo.com, azlanadnan@utm.my; HARITH,

on 09 October 2018
N. S., University of Technology Malaysia, Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia, be valid, even wrong. For example, the Poisson model (i.e., time-independent)
harithsheena@gmail.com; SHOUSHTARI, A. V., University of Technology contradicts the generally accepted physical model (i.e., Reid’s elastic rebound
Malaysia, Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia, abdollahvaezshoustari@yahoo.com theory) although it is the most commonly used in the forecast. All these make it
difficult, even impossible, to test the forecasts of earthquakes and their resulting
East Malaysia, located in a stable continental region of Borneo Island, is within the ground-motion hazards. Recent earthquakes, particularly the 2008 Wenchuan,
triple junction convergence zones between the Philippine, Indian-Australian and China, 2009 L’Aquila, Italy, 2010 Haiti, 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand, and
Eurasian Plates. From the earthquake records, there have been a few occurrences 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquakes, demonstrated such difficulty. This presentation
of moderate earthquake activities across East Malaysia region that are able to cause will explore the issues as well as alternative approaches for forecasting earthquakes
casualties and damages to properties. The most critical task in seismic design of and their resulting ground motion hazards.
structures is on the development of design ground motion. Its probabilistic seismic
hazard analysis (PSHA) requires a reliable ground motion prediction equation Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability - Global Activities
(GMPE) to estimate earthquake ground motion parameters characterizing the SCHORLEMMER, D., University of Southern California/GFZ Potsdam, Los
earthquakes. Unfortunately, there is no GMPE derived previously for the Angeles, CA & Potsdam, Germany, ds@usc.edu; GERSTENBERGER, M. C.,
condition in East Malaysia and Borneo Island regions. The current available GNS Science, Avalon, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, m.gerstenberger@gns.cri.nz;
GMPEs from elsewhere may not be suitable in predicting the peak ground HIRATA, N., University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, hirata@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp;
accelerations (PGA) accurately for the low-to-moderate earthquake conditions in JORDAN, T. H., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA,
East Malaysia as the models may provide different estimations for the long distant tjordan@usc.edu; LIUKIS, M., University of Southern California, Los Angeles,
earthquakes. In certain cases, a large number of attenuation functions are necessary CA, liukis@usc.edu; MARZOCCHI, W., Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica
to illustrate the complex situation that may occur especially for a region such as e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy, warner.marzocchi@ingv.it; RHOADES, D. A.,
East Malaysia. In this study, the GMPEs are evaluated and the PGA results are GNS Science, Avalon, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, d.rhoades@gns.cri.nz;
investigated for their sensitivity to the area assigned. The GMPE for the maximum TSURUOKA, H., University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, tsuru@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp;
component of peak ground motion from strike slip earthquakes are derived for WERNER, M., School of Earth Sciences and Cabot Institute, University of Bristol,
East Malaysia region using a local dataset consists of corrected and processed Bristol, UK, max.werner@bristol.ac.uk; ZECHAR, J., Swiss Seismological
accelerograms of 39 records with distance of 100 to 1350 km for earthquakes Service, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, jeremy.zechar@sed.ethz.ch; The
between Mw 2.7 and 7.6. The new GMPE is compared with five widely used CSEP Working Group
GMPEs to estimate horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) representing stable
regions and shallow crustal tectonic environment. In conclusion, the new GMPE The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) aims to
model developed in this study seems to provide better estimates and corelates well improve our understanding about the physics and predictability of earthquakes
with the observed earthquake recorded for all range of magnitudes and distances. through rigorous and prospective testing of earthquake forecast models. The
system-science character of earthquake prediction research demands an open
and collaborative structure for experimentation in a variety of fault systems and
Seismic Excitation and Modeling of Precarious Rocks near Los Alamos, New tectonic regions. CSEP Testing Centers in California, New Zealand, Japan, and
Mexico Europe have been developed to provide adequate infrastructure for predictability
MENQ, F., University of Texas, Austin, TX; MACFARLANE, E., research. CSEP is currently running prospective, automated evaluations of more
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, emac@lanl.gov; than 400 models and model variations in various testing regions, e.g. California,
STOKOE, K., University of Texas, Austin, TX, k.stokoe@mail.utexas.edu; New Zealand, Japan, Italy, and globally. We present the evolution of CSEP since
SCHULTZ-FELLENZ, E., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, its inception in 2007 and discuss results from several types of CSEP experiments.
eschultz@lanl.gov; LEE, R., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM Finally, we describe how CSEP is expanding into other areas, including the
testing of earthquake early warning systems, geodetic transient detectors, intensity
As part of ongoing fault and site characterization activities, the Los Alamos prediction equations, ground-motion prediction models, and other types of
National Laboratory (LANL) is investigating the use of precarious rocks to hazard models, thereby moving towards an environment allowing for testing all
constrain ground motion exceedance probabilities related to the nearby hazard- contributions to seismic hazard.
controlling Pajarito fault system (PFS). LANL sits approximately 4 km east of the
PFS, a major down-to-the-east normal fault system on the western margin of the Current Status of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability
Rio Grande rift. Careful examinations were completed of several areas of precarious LIUKIS, M., Southern California Earthquake Center, USC, Los Angeles,
rocks in a range of geologic materials, geomorphic settings, and proximity to CA, liukis@usc.edu; WERNER, M., University of Bristol, Bristol, UK,
major splays of the PFS. Two localities were selected for geophysical testing and max.werner@bristol.ac.uk; SCHORLEMMER, D., German Research Centre
future detailed geomorphic mapping and dating of young geologic deposits. Three for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany, ds@gfz-potsdam.de; YU, J., Southern
precarious rocks, also known locally as “hoodoos”, were instrumented to monitor California Earthquake Center, USC, Los Angeles, CA, johnyu@usc.edu;
seismic excitation from ambient noise, hammer blows and a nearby controlled MAECHLING, P. J., Southern California Earthquake Center, USC, Los Angeles,
multi-directional shaking using a vibroseis owned by the University of Texas. CA, maechlin@usc.edu; ZECHAR, J., Swiss Seismological Service, ETH, Zurich,
A spectral response analysis of the precarious rocks was completed as well as Switzerland, jeremy.zechar@sed.ethz.ch; JORDAN, T. H., Southern California
development of engineering models of the structural response. Engineering models Earthquake Center, USC, Los Angeles, CA, tjordan@usc.edu; The CSEP
are used primarily to predict the behavior of other un-instrumented precarious Working Group
rocks. This paper presents a comparison of modeling and experimental results.
Several linear-fixed-base structural models were used to simulate the response of the The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) supports
precarious rocks. The models included single-degree and multi-degree-of-freedom a global program to conduct prospective and retrospective earthquake forecast
systems and involved simulated rocking motion of the peak of the precarious rock. experiments. There are now CSEP testing centers in California, New Zealand,
Modeling was performed using a general purpose finite element modeling program. Japan, and Europe, with 434 models under evaluation. In this presentation, we
We performed frequency analyses on each model to determine modal properties. describe how the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) testing center
These results are compared against field testing results. Ultimately, time-dependent has evolved to meet CSEP objectives and we share our experiences in operating
fragility models can be prepared for these objects and used to constrain ground the center. The SCEC testing center has been operational since September 1,
motion exceedance rates. 2007, and currently hosts 30-minute, 1-day, 3-month, 1-year and 5-year forecasts,
both alarm-based and probabilistic, for California, the Western Pacific, and a
Testing of Earthquake and the Resulting Ground-Motion forecasts: A Difficult global testing region. Using a quarterly software update process, we have reduced
Task testing latency, implemented prototype evaluation of M8 forecasts and developed
WANG, Z., University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, zmwang@uky.edu procedures to evaluate externally-hosted forecasts and predictions. These efforts
are related to CSEP support of the USGS program in operational earthquake
It is well understood that earthquakes and their resulting ground-motion hazards forecasting and a Department of Homeland Security project to register and
cannot be forecasted reliably because earthquake locations, magnitudes, recurrence test external forecast procedures from experts outside seismology. Retrospective
intervals, and the resulting ground motions have large uncertainties. For example, experiment for the 2010 Canterbury earthquake sequence formed an important
the estimated magnitudes for earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone range addition to the CSEP activities where the predictive skills of physics-based
from M 6.6 to M 8.0, and estimates of the recurrence interval range from 500 and statistical forecasting models are compared. We describe the open-source
to 50,000 years. Furthermore, the probability (mathematical) models, such as the CSEP software that is available to researchers as they develop their forecast
Poisson, empirical, Brownian passage time, and time-predictable ones, have to models (http://northridge.usc.edu/trac/csep/wiki/MiniCSEP). We also discuss
be introduced in order to make a forecast. However, all the models might not applications of CSEP infrastructure to geodetic transient detection and the

on 09 October 2018
evaluation of ShakeAlert system for earthquake early warning (EEW), and how SSA journals in the last decade. Most of these scaling relations were developed for
CSEP procedures are being adopted for intensity prediction and ground motion either a specific fault type (i.e. active continental strike-slip [SS]) or specific region
prediction experiments. or both. Almost all the scaling relations have been developed using a subset of the
available data. While using only the Mw˜A data is the most common approach,
A New Way to Calculate Static Stress Change: Improved Aftershock relations have also been developed using only D˜L or Mw˜L data. A few papers give
Forecasting the results for multiple relations. The relative accuracy of the different variables
SEGOU, M. S., GeoAzur, Valbonne, France, msegou@gmail.com; PARSONS, (e.g. Magnitude, Length, Width, Area, Displacement) used is rarely considered
T. P., USGS, Menlo Park, CA, tparsons@usgs.gov and the choice of the variables to be fitted rarely justified. In a recent paper
Stirling et al.(2013) undertook a qualitative assessment of over a dozen scaling
Using a dense 3D grid of static stress change estimates, we identify aftershocks in relations. This paper investigates a quantitative method for comparing scaling
the near-source and at the far-field of major seismic events, heretofore considered relations, using a recently published comprehensive dataset of earthquake faults in
either as “aftershocks of unknown triggering mechanism” or “background” events. the Mediterranean region. We estimate three earthquake parameters, Mw from L,
We follow an innovative approach considering the ambient and co-seismic stress Mw from A and W from L. We then calculate the Peterson’s Chi-squared value for
field in order to estimate potential-for-failure planes and the adjacent static stress the three sets of estimates. Four scaling relations are then compared using weighted
changes. Several approaches are presently used to estimate static stress changes combinations of the summed Chi-squares. The methods that use a single data type
based on approximating the receiver fault with a unique plane, which is either (e.g. Mw˜A) tend to fit that data type well but are a poorer fit to the Mw˜L data
similar to the causative fault or defined by the regional geological features or and a very poor fit to the L˜W data. The method that used multiple data types in
corresponds to an optimal plane, maximizing the Coulomb failure criterion. In this its derivation tended to have a good fit to all the data types. I conclude that when
study we estimate a range of potential-for-failure strike-slip, normal and reverse selecting or tuning scaling relations, the fit of the relation to a range of data types
faults for each grid location taking into consideration: the spatial and temporal is important and worth the extra effort. I also consider that the model of faults
variability of the ambient stress field and other sources of uncertainty. When increasing with constant aspect ratio until they become fault width limited and
we compare the potential-for-failure planes for earthquakes following the April then scaling only with length is a poor fit to the SS data and a very poor fit to the
4, 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah M7.2 main shock with the “observed” ones, taken DS data.
from the high-accuracy focal mechanism catalog of Southern California, the results
suggest that > 80% of seismic events in the broader area are static triggered. Scaling Relationships for Partially Creeping Faults
Especially across the Laguna Salada fault, the number of potential static triggered HOUGH, S. E., US Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA, hough@usgs.gov; PAGE,
earthquakes rises when considering the perturbed by the geothermal exploitation M., US Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA, mpage@usgs.gov
stress field at the Cerro Prieto area. Having identified a causal link between
activated faults planes and positive static stress changes at the near-source region, Scaling relationships that predict the magnitude of hypothetical future earthquakes
the mystery of earthquake occurrence in this previously thought stress-shadow given a rupture length (or fault area) are a key ingredient for probabilistic
zone may cease to exist. This new approach in static stress modeling in operational seismic hazard assessment. For faults that experience significant creep over part of
forecasting, based on the total stress field and not just the co-seismic one, comes their depth extents, the recent Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast
to solve the common problem of under-estimation of aftershock rates in stress- (UCERF-3) methodology includes applied area reductions whereby faulting areas
shadow zones on behalf of physics-based models. for future ruptures are reduced depending on the observed creep rates. In
some cases, slip rates are also reduced. The approach yields moment reductions
of 16%, 18%, and 40% for the Hayward north, south, and south extension
segments, respectively. For the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault, the
Rethinking PSHA approach developed to account for creep over-predicts known magnitudes of past
Poster Session · Tuesday · 21 April · Exhibit Hall A earthquakes (e.g., 2004, 1966) that are assumed to be characteristic for this fault
segment. In this study we consider a set of eight moderate earthquakes on partially
creeping faults in California, including the 1868 Hayward earthquake using a new
Improved Regression Relations for Earthquake Source Parameters estimate of its magnitude based on the detailed reconsideration of macroseismic
WELLS, D. L., AMEC Foster Wheeler, Oakland, CA, donald.wells@amecfw. data (Boatwright and Bundock, 2008). We show that, for earthquakes for which
com; YOUNGS, R. R., AMEC Foster Wheeler, Oakland, CA, bob.youngs@ reliable rupture lengths can be estimated, rupture length-Mw scaling for the
amecfw.com 1966 and 2004 Parkfield earthquakes does not differ significantly from scaling
suggested for other earthquakes on faults that experience significant creep. This
New regression analyses have been performed to assess empirical relationships in turn suggests that the Parkfield segment is not unique by virtue of its physical
for earthquake source parameters of magnitude, rupture area, rupture length, behavior, but rather because, in contrast to other faults, instrumentally constrained
and displacement. The analyses are based on an update of the 1994 Wells and magnitudes are available for past large earthquakes. For other faults that experience
Coppersmith database to incorporate source parameters from recent earthquakes significant creep, while the UCERF-3 prescription implies area or moment
and new data and parameters published for historical earthquakes. In addition reductions of less than a factor of two in most cases, seismic moments of six of the
to development of an expanded data base, specific emphasis of the work has eight earthquakes considered in this study are lower by factors of approximately
been to quantify the epistemic uncertainty in the source parameter estimates, to 4-10 than predictions from the average scaling relation.
assess the range of individual parameter estimates, and to assign quality ranking
to the source parameters. An additional emphasis of the data update is to assess
extent of rupture area as represented by aftershocks, geodetic models, and finite Impact from Magnitude-Rupture Length Uncertainty on Seismic Hazard and
fault models. Ordinary least squares regression analyses have been performed with Risk in the Central and Eastern United States
data sets that are about 50% larger than the 1994 data sets. New all-slip-type APEL, E., Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA, trey.apel@rms.com;
regressions for the larger data sets of magnitude and rupture area, surface rupture NYST, M., Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA, marleen.nyst@
length, and displacement all show similar trends and statistical results to the 1994 rms.com; KANE, D., Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA USA,
regressions. Regressions for smaller data sets where the source parameters are deborah.kane@rms.com
judged to be better constrained show improved statistical relationships, but the
regression relationships do not appear to be statistically different than those for In probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessments seismic sources are typically
the larger data sets. A preliminary conclusion of these analyses is that use of the divided into two groups: fault sources and background sources. Background
more limited data sets may not adequately represent the aleatory nature of the sources can be modeled as areas, points or pseudo-faults. When background
earthquake rupture processes. The increased data, particularly for large magnitude sources are modeled as pseudo-faults, magnitude-length or magnitude-area
earthquakes, results in increased reliability of the predictive relations. Additional scaling relationships are required to construct these pseudo-faults. However the
refinement of the data sets and fitting of regression models is being performed, uncertainty associated with these relationships is often ignored or discarded
and final regression models are expected improved fits to the data compared to the in hazard and risk models, particularly when faults sources are the dominant
preliminary ordinary least squares models. contributor. Conversely, in the Central and Eastern United States the hazard and
risk is driven primarily by background sources and these uncertainties are much
Ranking of Scaling Relations more significant. Stirling et al. (2013) showed that for a given suite of magnitude-
LEONARD, M., Geoscience Australia, Australia, mark.leonard@ga.gov.au rupture length relationships the variability can be quite large. In this study we test
the impact of using various relationships and the resulting epistemic uncertainties
In the last decade there has been a significant expansion in the number of fault on the seismic hazard and risk in the Central and Eastern United States. The
scaling relations developed, with at least nine separate scaling relations published in 2014 US National Seismic Hazard Maps (Petersen et al., 2014) used only one

on 09 October 2018
magnitude-rupture length relationship (Somerville, et al., 2001) in the Central and a subduction zone. The Aleutian Megathrust is one of the major sources of
Eastern United States and did not consider variability in the seismogenic rupture earthquake hazard for Alaska and for tsunami hazard throughout the Pacific. In
plane width. We use a suite of metrics to compare the USGS approach with these the past two iterations of the USGS hazard maps, several segment boundaries are
variable uncertainty models to assess 1) the impact on hazard and risk and 2) the used to define hazard along the Aleutian megathrust (Wesson et. al. 1999 & 2007).
epistemic uncertainty associated with choice of relationship. In areas where the In the current hazard maps, 7 segments are used to define the rate of earthquakes
seismic hazard is dominated by larger crustal faults (e.g. New Madrid) the choice above a magnitude 8, and to assign varying maximum magnitudes. In these maps,
of magnitude-rupture length relationship has little impact on the hazard or risk. some megathrust segments are modeled having no earthquakes larger than M8,
However away from the New Madrid region the choice of relationship is more and only 2 segments are allowed to rupture together. The segment boundaries
significant and may approach the size of the uncertainty associated with the ground are derived from: historic earthquakes, coupled/uncoupled zones, and geologic
motion prediction equation suite. data. Here, we present a complementary method for setting segment boundaries
(Le Goff & Fitzenz, 2012). We will use the historic earthquake catalog and a
Estimating Magnitudes of Large Earthquakes from Rupture Length of Faults Bayesian approach to examine seismotectonic zoning. This approach searches over
with Low Slip Rates a pre-defined region for contrasts in activity rates and retrieves both the marginal
ANDERSON, J. G., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, jga@unr.edu; probability density function (pdf) for the limit between zones of homogeneous
activity rates and the pdf for those rates. The method can be expanded to search
WESNOUSKY, S. G., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, wesnousky@unr.edu;
over multiple zones for a given region. The advantage of such an approach is
BIASI, G. P., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, glenn@unr.edu
that it is reproducible and results can be modified over time with additional
Anderson et al. (1996) examined whether the slip rate of an active fault could help earthquake catalog data. Whereas, current segmentation models use historic events
to improve estimates of the magnitude for a given rupture length. Based on 43 and geologic data, this method uses activity rates of earthquakes larger than M4.
earthquakes culled form the database of Wells and Coppersmith, they suggested Other types of datasets and quantitative or qualitative information can also be
the following relationship: MW=5.12+1.16 log L-0.20 log S, where L is the rupture incorporated as prior information on both the activity rates and the location of
length in units of km, and S is the slip rate in units of mm/yr. With funding segment boundaries. We will use this approach to examine the existing megathrust
from the US Geological Survey, we have initiated a project to re-evaluate this segment boundaries, and investigate whether these boundaries should be adjusted
relationship in the light of additional data. Our expanded database currently has 85 in future models.
events, approximately double the size of the initial study. Our preliminary model
uses bilinear relations to separately estimate magnitude from the rupture length Implementing the Effect of the Rupture Directivity on PSHA Maps: Application
of strike slip faults (58 events), reverse faults (15 events), and normal faults (12 to the Marmara Region (Turkey)
events). Residuals from this relationship are regressed against slip rate. For strike- AKINCI, A., Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy,
slip faults, the best-fit model is substantially improved by the additional slip rate aybige.akinci@ingv.it; SPAGNUOLO, E., Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e
information, and log(S) has about the same effect as in the previous model. The Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy, elena.spagnuolo@ingv.it; HERRERO, A., Istituto
reverse and normal faults in our data set span a narrower range of slip rate mostly Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy, andre.herrero@ingv.it;
overlapping with the low slip rate range of the strike-slip events. Our bilinear PUCCI, S., Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy,
relations to estimate magnitude from rupture length fall above the relation for the stefano.pucci@ingv.it
median strike-slip event, especially at rupture length under ˜60 km. However, slip
rate does not contribute significantly to improve these models over the median The fault rupture directivity is an important contribution to the azimuthal
bilinear magnitude-estimation model. variability of the ground motion spatial distribution affecting the hazard
assessment especially in near-source regions. Recent studies have pointed out that
Revisiting the Fault Magnitude Frequency Distribution for Site-Specific PSHA the seismic hazard in the city of Istanbul is mainly associated with two active
BIASI, G. P., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, glenn@unr.edu; THOMPSON, seismogenic areas: the Central Marmara Basin and the North Boundary Fault
S., Lettis Consulting International, Walnut Creek, CA, thompson@lettisci.com; which are located at about 20km south of Istanbul. In these regions the directivity
ABRAMSONWARD, H., Lettis Consulting International, Walnut Creek, CA, effect may contribute significantly to PSHA and should be considered for its
abramsonward@lettisci.com implication in the decision takings for mitigation actions in the region. In this
study we improved the probabilistic seismic hazard formulation for the Marmara
A key step in site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the Region through the introduction of the rupture directivity effect. We introduce
estimation of the magnitude-frequency distribution (MFD) for fault sources. This information about the fault segments and fault rupture characteristics following
process typically involves the selection of a functional form, whether exponential, the strategy proposed by Spagnuolo et al.(2012).They used the corrective factor
characteristic, or other, and a scaling of the functional form to a fault-specific MFD for directivity proposed by Spudich&Chiou (2008) which accounts for: (i) the
based on the fault’s dimensions, maximum or characteristic earthquake size, and surface available to rupture form the nucleation position to the site, (ii) rupture
slip rate. As fault source modeling for PSHA moves from isolated faults or fault direction relative to the site and (iii) radiation pattern. The corrective factor acts as
segments to alternative ruptures over networks of faults, individual fault MFDs an additive term to the GMPEs and thus enters the PSHA formulation adding one
are less able to represent the net size distribution of earthquakes that affect the integral and one probability density function in association with each new variable.
site. Faults in isolation may follow (or be imagined to follow) a simple model In particular directivity introduces the dependency on the nucleation position
MFD. However, once faults connect, the resulting joint MFD will not, in general, which we varied using both "ad-hoc" testing distributions and then the distribution
have any simple shape. We illustrate how the MFD for a site-specific study can resulting from deterministic dynamic models. Here we used two GMPES, the
be evaluated by replacing the concept of a fault MFD with MFDs at a point. Abrahamson&Silva (2008) and the Boore&Atkinson (2008); our results are given
Fault MFDs are readily mapped to their point MFD equivalents using a geometry- in terms of probability of exceedance of PGA and PSA values of 10% in 50 years
based reduction similar to what is used for seismic hazard estimation. Point MFDs on rock site condition We report a significate contribution to the percentage ratio
generated from faults in a seismic source characterization (SSC) can be combined between the seismic hazards computed using the directivity model respect to the
to view the net MFD affecting the point of interest and to gauge its semblance seismic hazard standard practice.
to more conventional MFD functional forms. Point MFDs from an SSC can also
be compared to benchmark projects such as the Uniform California Earthquake
Rupture Forecast v3 (UCERF3) by isolating UCERF3 rupture participation rates Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments for Taiwan
at single subsections – the small structures used to make UCERF3 faults. We find WANG, Y. J., Institute of Earth Sciences, Taiwan, wangzu885@gmail.com;
that the geologic MFDs for faults near the Diablo Canyon Power Plant in central CHAN, C. H., Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, chchan@ntu.
coastal California predicted by SSC methods share similarities with activity rates edu.sg; LEE, Y. T., National Central University, Taiwan, shine2530@gmail.com;
predicted by UCERF3, but that UCERF3 generally emphasizes larger, less frequent MA, K. F., National Central University, Taiwan, fong@earth.ncu.edu.tw;
earthquakes than our forward model or MFDs from standard functional forms. SHYU, J. B. H., National Taiwan University, Taiwan, jbhs@ntu.edu.tw
The team of Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) incorporates geologists,

Segmenting the Aleutian Megathrust seismologists and engineering seismologists to assess Taiwan seismic hazard. Based
PORTO, N. M., Risk Management Solutions, Newark, CA, Natanya.Porto@ on the scope of TEM, two models of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA)
rms.com; FITZENZ, D. D., Risk Management Solutions, Newark, CA, Delphine. for Taiwan were presented. The assessment of the first model is based on the source
Fitzenz@rms.com parameters for the 38 seismogenic structures obtained by geologists of TEM. The
other one is estimated based on the 33 active faults by the Central Geological
Source models often use a segmented approach to model subduction zone hazard. Survey (CGS) of Taiwan published in 2010. In addition to the fault sources, the
This allows for different maximum magnitudes and varying earthquake rates along background shallow seismicity and intra-/inter-slab seismicity in subduction zones

on 09 October 2018
were considered in the two models. The corresponding attenuation regulations the methodology has come to be applied to increasingly complex and non-
applicable for crustal and subduction (intra-/inter-slab) earthquakes were adopted. standard source and ground motion models. For example, the third Uniform
The hazard maps show the highest hazard in central-western Taiwan (e.g. California Earthquake Rupture Forecast upended the notion of discrete faults as
Taichung, Changhua, Nantou, Chiayi and Tainan regions) and the Longitudinal independent sources, and the USGS national seismic hazard model uses temporally
Valley. The ground motion with 10% in 50 years exceeds 1.5 g for the response clustered sources. Moreover, as the logic trees typically employed in PSHAs
spectral acceleration of 0.3 sec. Among the six municipalities, Taichung City has to capture epistemic uncertainty grow larger, so too does the demand for a
the highest seismic hazard for PGA and response spectral acceleration of various more complete understanding of uncertainty. At the USGS, there are additional
periods. Tainan City has higher hazard for short periods, but lower hazard than requirements to support source model mining, deaggregation, and map-making,
Taipei City for long periods. Because the fault sources published by the CGS have often through the use of dynamic web-applications. Typical implementations
shorter fault lengths that correspond to smaller magnitudes, the obtained hazards of the PSHA methodology iterate over all sources that influence the hazard
in some areas (e.g. Taipei, Chianan Plain and Ilan Plain) are smaller. at a site and sequentially build a single hazard curve. Such a linear PSHA
computational pipeline, however, proves difficult to maintain and modify to
Off-Fault Strain-Rate Estimation and Application to the Seismic Hazard support the additional complexity of new models, hazard products, and analyses.
Analysis The functional programming paradigm offers some relief. The functional approach
ZENG, Y., US Geological Survey, Golden, CO, zeng@usgs.gov; SHEN, Z. K., breaks calculations down into their component parts or steps, storing intermediate
UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, zhengkangshen@gmail.com; PETERSEN, M. D., US results as immutable objects, making it easier to: chain actions together; preserve
Geological Survey, Golden, CO, mpetersen@usgs.gov intermediate data or results that may still be relevant (e.g. as in a deaggregation);
and leverage the concurrency supported by many modern programming languages.
For the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), we developed I will review the structure of a functional PSHA computational engine and provide
a fault slip-rate model based on a combined inversion of GPS velocities and notes on performance, memory issues, and scalability.
geological slip-rate data for the Western United States (WUS). Although the
model estimates on-fault slip-rates and off-fault strain rates, the off-fault data was GMPE Space
not applied in the 2014 models but can provide supplementary data to constrain CHIOU, B., California Department of Transportation, Sacramento, CA,
background-seismicity rates. In this paper, we investigate the off-fault strain- brian_chiou@dot.ca.gov
rates from the combined inversion and explore its uncertainty and implication
for seismic hazard analysis. Our off-fault strain-rates are parameterized by two Epistemic uncertainty in median amplitude is an important component of the
components. The first is an interseismic strain-rate component computed across hazard uncertainty. In modern PSHA, alternative GMPEs are used to capture this
WUS by bringing deeply buried dislocations to the surface along boundaries of epistemic uncertainty. Given the relatively small number of applicable GMPEs, the
all major blocks in Zeng and Shen’s deformation model. The second are within- question of whether selected GMPEs capture the center, body, and range (CBR) of
block strain-rates obtained through fitting the residual GPS velocities that are the median amplitude is a critical issue that nearly every PSHA study must address. In
differences between the observed velocities and predictions from the combined the present study, the concept of GMPE space is introduced, motivated by that we
inversion. Our final off-fault strain rates are the sum of the two strain rates with a may use it as a tool to help address the above question and to improve, if needed,
total off-fault moment rate of 7.2x10ˆ18 and 8.5x10ˆ18 Nm/yr for California and the capturing of CBR of median amplitude. A key prerequisite for the construction
the rest of the WUS, respectively. Our resulting off-fault strain-rate distributions and estimation of theGMPEspace is that existing GMPEs (such as those from the
are consistent with overall regional tectonics. In order to estimate the standard PEER NGA-West2 project) can be accurately reexpressed by a common functional
deviation of the modeled off-fault moment rate, we used a Monte Carlo simulation form. By using a common form, the GMPE space is reduced to a probability
procedure. The estimated standard deviation for the total off-fault moment rate is space for common form’s coefficients. Under the normality assumption, the
estimated to be 1.4x10ˆ18 and 0.44x10ˆ18 Nm/yr for California and the rest of covariance matrix of the coefficients’ multivariate distribution can be estimated
the WUS, respectively. These values are about 19% of the total off-fault moment based on the available (sampled) GMPEs by mixedeffect regression, treating the
rate for California and only 5% of that for the rest of the WUS. Adding all other coefficients as random effects varying from GMPE to GMPE. Achieving the
sources of uncertainty, we expect a total moment-rate error of about 26% and 19% desirable accuracy entails a careful design of the common form. It requires not
for California and the rest of the WUS, respectively. only flexible functions for the scaling of median amplitude with magnitude and
distance but also the ability to bridge the fundamental differences in the selected
Impact of Catalog Declustering Approach on Hazard and Risk in Mexico predictors (such as distance measure and fault depth) between GMPEs. In this
KANE, D., RMS, Inc., Newark, CA, deborah.kane@rms.com; WOESSNER, J., study, the design of a robust functional form is discussed and its ability of achieving
RMS, Inc., Zurich, Switzerland, jochen.woessner@rms.com; APEL, E., RMS, a small misfit (less than 10 %) to the predicted medians of the original GMPEs is
Inc., Newark, CA, trey.apel@rms.com; NYST, M., RMS, Inc., Newark, CA, demonstrated. Finally, several potential utilities of GMPE space in seismic hazard
marleen.nyst@rms.com analysis are discussed, including its use in establishing an integrated probabilistic
distribution of median amplitude and a comparison with the statistics-based
Earthquake hazard and risk models assume that earthquake rates can be epistemic uncertainty developed by Al-Atik and Youngs (2014).
represented by a stationary Poisson process and that spatiotemporal clustering
in historical seismicity catalogs must be corrected before earthquake rates are Selecting and Weighting of GMPEs for PSHA based on High-Dimensional
estimated. Algorithms for classifying individual earthquakes as independent Visualization Tools
mainshocks or as dependent events (i.e., foreshocks and aftershocks) vary widely. KUEHN, N. M., University of California, Berkeley, CA, kuehn@berkeley.edu;
Declustering a single catalog can produce considerably different earthquake rates ABRAHAMSON, N., University of California, Berkeley, CA, abrahamson@
depending on the declustering method implemented. As these rates are propagated berkeley.edu
through hazard and risk models, the modeled results are impacted spatially due
to the assumptions implied by these choices. In Mexico, approximately 70% of A key aspect of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the quuantification
the modeled average annual loss is attributed to subduction zone sources where of epistemic uncertainty. One of the components that greatly contributes to this
event rates are primarily derived from large magnitude historical earthquakes. uncertainty is epistemic uncertainty in median ground-motion predictions. This is
The remaining ˜30% of average annual loss is caused by country-wide modeled usuallydealtwithbyplacingdifferentground-motionpredictionequations(GMPEs)
background seismicity. We derive background seismicity rates in Mexico using a on branches of a logic tree, with associated weights. However, it is questionable
historical catalog spanning 1577 – 2013 (Mw > 3.5), and then implement several whether existing adequately capture the center, body and range of median GMPE
different approaches to decluster and estimate the seismicity rate parameters. predictions. Furthermore, clear guidelines on selection and weighting GMPEs are
Because hazard and risk models typically apply to different spans of time (e.g., missing. In this work, we show how high-dimensional visualization techniques can
50 years vs. a single year), the changes to the magnitude-frequency distribution help in selecting and weighting GMPEs. Under the assumption that GMPEs are
introduced by declustering can have a large impact on one type of model while part of a larger model space, this model space can be represented as a map in two
having a minimal impact on another type of model. We explore and quantify the dimensions, where each point on the map corresponds to a physically plausible
effects of these choices and suggest some guidelines for when these choices will have GMPE. Selection and weighting can then be done on the map in a principled way.
the largest impact on model results. Basically, the map is a representation of a continuous model space, and the center,
body and range of viable median predictions can be defined on the map. We show
Functional PSHA how one can use the GMPE map as a basis to make an informed decision about
POWERS, P. M., USGS, Golden, CO, pmpowers@usgs.gov the range of acceptable GMPEs, by comparing the GMPEs on the map against
relevant data. We also show how one can partition the range on the map, and thus
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA; Cornell, 1968) is elegant in its the model space, to adequately capture the center, body and range with a small
relative simplicity. However, in the more than 40-years since its publication, number of GMPEs. Each selected GMPE then is representative of some subregion

on 09 October 2018
on the map (and in turn the model space). Weights for the selected GMPEs can be CA, gok1@llnl.gov; DODGE, D. A., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories,
calculated as expectations over their subregion with respect to likelihood and/or Livermore, CA; ABDULNABY, W., University of Basrah, Basrah, Iraq,
residuals of relevant data. This bases the weighting of GMPEs on an objective basis. wgabdulnaby@ualr.edu; MAHDI, H., University of Arkansas at Little Rock,
We illustrate the approach with a PSHA example from the western US. Little Rock, AR, hhmahdi@ualr.edu
A comprehensive earthquake catalog was compiled for Iraq and neighboring
Role of Seismic Zonation of the Northern Apennines, GMPEs and hazard areas as part of a broader probabilistic seismic hazard assessment project. The
software for PSHA evaluation in Emilia-Romagna, Italy Iraq Seismic Network (ISN) was established in 1976 and became operational
MUCCIARELLI, M., CRS-OGS, Trieste, Italy, mmucciarelli@inogs.it; in the early 1980s. However recording and reporting of seismic data has been
SANTULIN, M., CRS-OGS, Trieste, Italy; TAMARO, A., CRS-OGS, Trieste, intermittent in Iraq. Hence events were collected from various sources including
Italy; REBEZ, A., CRS-OGS, Trieste, Italy; SANDRON, D., CRS-OGS, Trieste, the ISN when available; ISC (International Seismological Centre); European-
Italy; SLEJKO, D., CRS-OGS, Trieste, Italy; MARTELLI, L., Servizio Geologico, Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC); USGS Centennial Catalog, Global
Sismico e dei Suoli, Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy; SANI, F., Università CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor) Catalog, and Ambraseys’ extensive work on
degli Studi di Firenze, Firenze, Italy; BONINI, M., Istituto di Geoscienze e cataloguing of instrumental era earthquakes in the Middle East (e.g. Ambraseys,
Georisorse, Italy; CORTI, G., Istituto di Geoscienze e Georisorse, Firenza, Italy 1978). In addition, moment magnitude solutions based on waveform modeling
The results of various sensitivity analysis in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and coda calibration technique were included when available. For many of the
indicate that the greatest impacting parameters in the computations are the choice of larger events in the catalog, more than one solution is available. Directly calculated
the seismic zonations and the ground motion prediction relations used; how many moment magnitudes (Mw) were favored, followed by mb obtained from the
zonations and which attenuation relations are used and how they are combined in ISC. Where no directly calculated Mw was available, other magnitude scales
the branches of a logic tree can strongly affect the hazard results. Recent events were converted to Mw using relationships compatible with the local catalog. The
in Italy highlighted unexpected large ground motions compared to the estimates resulting catalog covers the region bounded by 36E-51E longitudes and 26N-40N
obtained by probabilistic seismic hazard analyses represented by the national seismic latitudes, and includes more than 3,000 earthquakes of Mw4.0 or larger.
hazard maps MPS04 (Meletti et al., 2008). For this reason, a preliminary version
of a regional seismogenic zonation has been proposed (Martelli et al., 2014) for Caltech/USGS Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN): Operations and
the Emilia-Romagna area based on some new regional seismotectonic studies. The Future Plans
new zonation is intentionally more detailed if compared to the national one that BHADHA, R., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, rayo@gps.
has been conceived to cover the entire Italian territory. The introduction of two caltech.edu; ANDREWS, J., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
transfer zones cutting the trend of the Apenninic zones of the national zonation jrand@gps.caltech.edu; GUIWITS, S., California Institute of Technology,
represents the major novelty for the Emilia Romagna region. In both the zonations Pasadena, CA, steve@gps.caltech.edu; HAUKSSON, E., California Institute of
the boxes are characterized by homogeneous deformation informations inside (in Technology, Pasadena, CA, hauksson@caltech.edu; WATKINS, M., California
terms of rupture mechanisms and geometry of faults: depth range, strike and Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, watkins@gps.caltech.edu; CRUMMEY,
dip). A 3D geometry has been defined for the new zones by introducing some J., USGS, Pasadena, CA, jcrummey@usgs.gov; THOMAS, V. I., USGS,
seismogenic planes, i.e., 3D surfaces geometrically in agreement with the tectonic Pasadena, CA, vthomas@usgs.gov
style dominating in the zone. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has
been conducted aiming to compare the seismic hazard estimates, according to The SCSN monitors ground motions and seismicity to provide real-time
Cornell (1968) and using the software Crisis 2012 (Ordaz et al., 2012), obtained earthquake information products such as locations, magnitudes, ShakeMaps, and
with the new zonation and the national ones. The new hazard estimates, although others. The SCSN consists of ˜295 digital and 42 analog stations feeding real-
very preliminary, show interesting differences with respect to the national ones and time data to Pasadena. We use a variety of digital data communications, including
point out the influence of a 3D geometry joint with a proper attenuation model cell modems, USGS microwave, digital radios, satellite, and the Internet. We
in the expected ground motions on the surface. import real-time data from 119 partner stations and transmit waveform data (˜
325 stations) to several other partner networks. The SCSN records on average 256
events of M>=3.0 per year and one M>=6.0 every 3 years, including aftershocks.
A Contemporary Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) We distribute our products via multiple Internet pathways using custom USGS
Framework for Iraq and Neighboring Regions software as well as email, and SMS, to USGS, FEMA, Cal OES, local governments,
ONUR, T., Onur Seemann Consulting, Victoria, BC, Canada, onur.osc@ partner members, and other subscribers. Over 250k users subscribe to ENS rapid
gmail.com; GOK, R., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, Livermore, notifications of M=6 events, via email and cell phones. In addition, researchers
CA, gok1@llnl.gov; ABDULNABY, W., University of Basrah, Basrah, Iraq, and the public access the SCEDC, SCSN, and CISN web pages. We use non-
wgabdulnaby@ualr.edu; SHAKIR, A. M., University of Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq, proprietary, open source software like cacti and NAGIOS as well as SeisNetWatch,
ammar.shakir@outlook.com; NUMAN, N., University of Duhok, Duhok, Iraq, CISN Display and SWARM to monitor our network and computer systems and
nazarnuman@yahoo.com; MAHDI, H., University of Arkansas, Little Rock, AR, send alerts depending on the severity of the problem. Future plans include: -
hhmahdi@ualr.edu; AL-SHUKRI, H., University of Arkansas, Little Rock, AR, Public and Private Cloud computing - increasing the reliability, robustness and
hjalshukri@ualr.edu redundancy of our computer and network systems. We plan to acquire seismic data
directly into the cloud, process the waveforms, calculate locations, magnitudes, and
Iraq lies in the northern portion of the Arabian Plate bounded in the east and north other products, and dependably distribute earthquake alerts. - Social Media - in
by the Bitlis-Zagros Fold and Thrust Belt, where the convergent tectonic boundary addition to cloud computing we will use Social Media applications like Twitter,
between the Eurasian and Arabian plates generates intense earthquake activity. Facebook, Pinterest, to provide the latest quake information. - Upgrade telemetry
The rest of Iraq is largely located on Arabian Platform, away from major plate to include an expanded proprietary radio/microwave network. - Develop new
boundaries. The most recent Iraqi seismic design requirements were released in analysis tools to continuously monitor seismic station health and possibly offline
1997, including a seismic hazard and zoning coefficient to account for the variation stations for major problems.
of seismic hazard across the country. Although an update to this code is currently
underway, the underlying seismic hazard is not based on a thorough analysis of
seismic sources and ground motion characteristics specific to the region. This study Products and Services Available from the Southern California Earthquake
systematically compiles all available data on local seismicity, tectonics, and ground Data Center
motion attenuation characteristics of the region; and builds a flexible framework YU, E., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, eyu@gps.caltech.edu;
to enable a contemporary probabilistic seismic hazard assessment to be carried out ACHARYA, P., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, pacharya@
at this point of time and to be updated regularly in the future. gps.caltech.edu; BHASKARAN, A., California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, CA, aparnab@gps.caltech.edu; CHEN, S., California Institute of
Technology, Pasadena, CA, schen@gps.caltech.edu; CHOWDHURY, F.,
California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, faria@gps.caltech.edu;
Seismic Networks, Instrumentation and Products HUTTON, K., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, kate@gps.
Poster Session · Tuesday · 21 April · Exhibit Hall A caltech.edu; HAUKSSON, E., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
hauksson@caltech.edu; CLAYTON, R. W., California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, CA, clay@gps.caltech.edu
Compilation of an Earthquake Catalog for Iraq and Neighboring Regions
ONUR, T., Onur Seemann Consulting, VIctoria, BC, Canada, onur.osc@ The Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC) archives data
gmail.com; GOK, R., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, Livermore, recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) as well as GPS

on 09 October 2018
networks. In 2014 the SCEDC archived continuous data from 9202 data channels multiple data centers and a web service for accessing the catalog. Some of our
of 484 SCSN recorded stations, and event waveforms from 796 stations. Users can key data access software has been updated to use this new catalog service to
access these data through http://scedc.caltech.edu and through client applications perform client-side federation of data requests, making collection of seismic data
such as STP. We describe the most significant developments at the SCEDC in from multiple data centers a straightforward process. Recently we have released
the past year. New data holdings The SCEDC will be archiving seismogeodetic products related to aftershocks and global waveform stacks. In development is
waveforms and velocity waveforms produced by the California Real Time Network an open-source portable, desktop 3D Earth model viewer designed for use with
(http://sopac.ucsd.edu/projects/realtime). These waveforms are computed by models in our Earth Model Collaboration (EMC) repository, or other Earth
combining 1 sps real time GPS solutions with 100 Hz accelerometer data. They models in netCDF format. This viewer is Python-based and will run on various
are available in mseed and sac formats. This project is part of the NASA Advanced platforms with only a few extra modules needed. The goal of this viewer is
Information System Technologies program. A focal mechanism catalog using the to provide simple, interactive 3D visualization capabilities that bridge the gap
HASH method from 1981 to present is available at http://scedc.caltech.edu. between complex viewers (e.g. Unidata’s IDV and ParaView) and the EMC’s
The historical data are from Yang, Hauksson, Shearer (2011). A relocated existing 2D model slices. Also in development is a system to calculate synthetic
event location catalog from 1981-2013 using waveform relocation techniques seismograms on-demand. IRIS DMC Web Services: http://service.iris.edu/ IRIS
is available via STP and at http://scedc.caltech.edu. The source of the catalog DMC Data Products: http://ds.iris.edu/ds/products/
is based on Hauksson, Yang, Shearer, 2012. New distribution methods The
SCEDC has FDSN web services for event, waveform, and station metadata.
Users can either use the form or programmatically access via curl or wget. New Tracking Station Noise Characteristics in Alaska Using IRIS MUSTANG Web
infrastructure The SCEDC is in the progress of moving its Recent Earthquake Services
Map and static web pages into Amazon Web Services. This will enable the web BRUTON, C. P., Alaska Earthquake Center, Fairbanks, AK, cpbruton@
site to serve large number of users without competing for resources needed by alaska.edu; RUPPERT, N. A., Alaska Earthquake Center, Fairbanks, AK,
SCSN/SCEDC mission critical operations. The SCEDC is implementing the naruppert@alaska.edu; FRASSETTO, A., IRIS Consortium, Washington, DC,
Continuous Wave Buffer system, which will make continuous data available andyf@iris.edu
within minutes of real time and maximize the completeness of SCEDC waveform
The Alaska Earthquake Center (AEC) maintains over 120 broadband seismic
archives. This software is developed at the National Earthquake Information stations across Alaska, with varying vault design, instrumentation, and geographic
Center. and geological settings. Data recorded by these stations is utilized in regional
earthquake monitoring. The noise characteristic of a station is an important factor
The ANSS Station Information System: A Centralized Station Metadata for earthquake detection and other applications. Probability density functions
Repository for Populating, Managing and Distributing Seismic Station (PDFs) have been a useful tool for characterizing background noise at seismic
Metadata stations and comparing to standard microseismic noise models. Previously it has
YU, E., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, eyu@gps.caltech.edu; been cumbersome to examine changes in noise levels over time, but new IRIS web
CHOWDHURY, F., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, services have made PDF data more readily accessible. We have developed tools to
faria@gps.caltech.edu; ACHARYA, P., California Institute of Technology, automatically download, plot, and compare PDFs between stations and across time
Pasadena, CA, pacharya@gps.caltech.edu; KIENTZ, S., California Institute periods. Modular Utility for STAtistical kNowledge Gathering (MUSTANG) is a
of Technology, Pasadena, CA, suekientz@gmail.com; THOMAS, V., US system developed by the IRIS Data Services to calculate, archive, and access data
Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA, vthomas@usgs.gov quality metrics for the seismology community. AEC uses MUSTANG to obtain
probability density functions for seismic channels over short time windows and
Maintaining and archiving accurate station metadata is critical for seismic network then plot their medians over time. We can then examine how noise levels at various
operations. The Station Information System (SIS) is a repository of seismic frequencies change seasonally as well as after vault changes or station maintenance.
network field equipment, response and site information. It implements a web- For example, station COLD located in northern Alaska shows a decrease in high-
based user interface that enables manipulation of metadata. The system can track frequency noise during the winter months when the equipment is buried in snow.
the installation, maintenance, and removal of equipment from sites. SIS also Station CAPN in southern Alaska shows a decrease in noise after May 2014, when
computes the overall gain of a data channel by combining the response of the it was converted from a surface vault to a borehole installation as part of the
underlying hardware components. In turn, users can distribute this information ongoing Transportable Array (TA) deployment in Alaska. With the continuing
in standard formats such as FDSN StationXML and dataless SEED. SIS also TA rollout in Alaska, some regional sites will be targeted for instrumentation
manages field equipment that does not produce seismic data streams -such as upgrades and integration into the TA network. Noise characterization will help
power, telemetry or GPS - to give the network operator the most complete view us to identify the best performing sites. This study will demonstrate seasonal and
of site field work. One powerful advantage for SIS users is the ability to leverage regional variability of noise characteristics for stations from the Alaska Regional
the data already available in the repository. For example, users can assign a new Network.
instrument a response from the IRIS Nominal Response Library (NRL), or from
an instrument already in the inventory. This reduces the amount of time analysts
need to research the response when a new equipment model is introduced into their Challenges and Solutions for Placing a Seismometer on Mars
network. To date there are 180 different sensor models and 108 logger models in HURST, K. J., Caltech, Pasadena, CA, ken.hurst@jpl.nasa.gov; LOGNONNE,
SIS. Users are also able to copy equipment configurations in SIS, reducing the time P., IPGP, Paris France, lognonne@ipgp.fr; LAUDET, P., CNES, Toulouse,
required to enter metadata for a new station. In addition, SIS reporting capabilities France, Philippe.Laudet@cnes.fr; BANERDT, W. B., Caltech, Pasadena,
can be used to plan and maintain seismic networks. Queries such as how many CA, william.b.banerdt@jpl.nasa.gov; DE RAUCOURT, S., IPGP, Paris,
sensors of a certain model are installed or what equipment have active problem France, sebastien.deraucourt@gmail.com; DELEUZE, M., CNES,
reports are just a few examples of the types of information available to SIS users. Toulouse, France, Muriel.Deleuze@cnes.fr; IJPELAAN, F., CNES, Toulouse,
France, Frans.Ijpelaan@cnes.fr; KERJEAN, L., CNES, Toulouse, France,
laurent.kerjean@cnes.fr; PEREZ, R., CNES; PONT, G. ,CNES;SYLVESTRE-
Latest Web Service and Data Product Developments At the IRIS DMC BARON, A., CNES; VERDIER, N., CNES; BAHANDARI, P., JPL/Caltech;
TRABANT, C., IRIS Data Management Center, Seattle, WA, chad@iris. DENISE, R., JPL/Caltech; ERVIN, J., JPL/Caltech; FELDMAN, J., JPL/Caltech;
washington.edu; HUTKO, A., IRIS Data Management Center, Seattle, WA, HAGMAN, M., JPL/Caltech; KLEIN, K., JPL/Caltech; MIKELLIDES, I.,
alex@iris.washington.edu; VAN FOSSEN, M., IRIS Data Management Center, JPL/Caltech; LIN, J., JPL/Caltech; ONUFER, N., JPL/Caltech; TREBI-
Seattle, WA, mick@iris.washington.edu; AHERN, T., IRIS Data Management OLLENNU, A., JPL/Caltech; UMLAND, J., JPL/Caltech; GIARDINI, D.,
Center, Seattle, WA, tim@iris.washington.edu; WEEKLY, R., IRIS Data ETHZ; ZWEIFEL, P., ETHZ; BRAMANTI, C., ESA; PIKE, W.T., ICL;
Management Center, Seattle, WA, rtweekly@iris.washington.edu; BAHAVAR, CALCUTT, S., Oxford; MIMOUN, D., ISAE; BIERWIRTH, M., MPS;
M., IRIS Data Management Center, Seattle, WA, manoch@iris.washington.edu CHRISTENSEN, U., MPS; and the SEIS/InSight Instrument Team
The IRIS Data Management Center (DMC) hosts mature web service interfaces The InSight Mars mission will place a 6-component seismometer, a heat-flow
that allow easy access to the vast archive of data at the DMC. In addition to probe, a weather station, 2 cameras, and a precision tracking transponder on Mars
raw data, the DMC develops and distributes higher level data products. We will in late 2016. The seismometer consists of 3 oblique Very Broad Band (VBB, 1e-9
present several recently released services and data products offered by the DMC m/s2/vHz, 0.01-1 Hz) and 3 Short Period (SP, 1e-8 m/s2/vHz, 0.1-10 Hz) sensors.
and provide status updates for those in development. With an increasing number The seismometer is deployed from the deck of the spacecraft to the surface of Mars
of seismological data centers offering standardized web service interfaces, end using a robotic arm. A single camera on the arm is used to construct stereoscopic
users may access data across data centers using the same software. Leveraging 3D terrain maps of the area where the arm can place the sensor. To minimize
these compatible interfaces, the DMC has created a catalog of data holdings at thermal noise, the 24-bit analog-to-digital converters are located in the spacecraft

on 09 October 2018
thermal enclosure. To permit operation over the >30C diurnal temperature swing components behaved equal in all directions. The equidistant step-out provided a
inside the insulated sensor without daily recentering, the VBBs are outfitted with a method to determine maximum distance from sensor to source from which a usable
passive temperature compensation mechanism. The electrical cable connecting the signal could be obtained. While I expected to see a smooth decay of amplitudes I
sensor on the ground to the electronics in the spacecraft has over 200 conductors noted that the maximum vertical component did not reliable decay. These results
and can not be placed in a loop around the seismometer as done in terrestrial will be used to further test active sources at the PSRF and develop a methodology
installations. To mitigate the thermoelastic effect of the cable, we implemented a to incorporate into the field calibration procedures.
horizontal service loop. It is not possible to bury the sensor, so we implemented
a wind/thermal shield and an insulating blanket to minimize the environmental
noise. The mounting structure is designed to seismically couple the sensors to Installation of High-Frequency Array and Broadband Seismic Stations in
the expected sandy soil, and to accommodate scattered rocks. Adjustable legs can South Central Iraq
level the sensor assembly to within 0.1o when placed on slopes up to 15o. The AL-SHUKRI, H., University of Arkansas, Little Rock, AR, hjalshukri@ualr.edu;
acceleration of gravity (3.71 m/s2) of Mars is accommodated by selection of the MAHDI, H., University of Arkansas, Little Rock, AR, hhmahdi@ualr.edu;
spring and masses within the sensors. Testing on Earth of the VBB or SPZ involves ABD, N., University of Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq, naabd@ualr.edu; CHLAIB,
either adding a compensation mass or tilting the sensor such that the effective H., University of Thi-Qar, Thi-Qar, Iraq, hkchlaib@ualr.edu; RAMTHAN,
gravitational force along the sensitivity axis matches the force on Mars. The SPH A., University of Thi-Qar, Thi-Qar, Iraq, aliramthan@yahoo.com; GOK, R.,
can be fully tested when leveled on Earth. On-board software compresses data and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, gok1@llnl.gov
allows post-selection of events from Earth.
During the summer of 2014, the research team installed a seven element high-
frequency three-component array and four broadband seismic stations in the Al-
Development of the Next Generation of Seismological Instrumentation for
Rufai area about 240 kilometers southeast Baghdad, Iraq. The installation covers
Polar Environments an area of more than 50 kilometers in radius with an additional broadband station
WINBERRY, J. P., Central Washington University, Ellensburg, WA, winberry@ installed in Basra area. Recently, the area experienced a swarm of moderate size
geology.cwu.edu; HUERTA, A. D., Central Washington University, Ellensburg,
earthquakes that seems to continue until today. Many of the earthquakes that were
WA, huerta@geology.cwu.edu; BERNSEN, S. P., New Mexico Institute of strongly felt by the area’s residents were not reported by any monitoring agency
Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM, sbernsen@nmt.edu; PARKER, T., with few that were strong enough to cause some structural and non-structural
IRIS PASSCAL, Socorro, NM, tparker@passcal.nmt.edu; CARPENTER, P., damage. Although the installation was planned for a temporary period, increased
IRIS PASSCAL, Socorro, NM, pcarpenter@passcal.nmt.edu; WOODWARD,
interest in the high-quality data that was recorded, the research team elected to
R., IRIS Headquarters, Washington, DC, woodward@iris.edu; BEAUDOIN, continue with the recording for an indefinite period. In addition to the local events
B., IRIS PASSCAL, Socorro, NM, bruce@passcal.nmt.edu; BILEK, S., New that were monitored, a large number of regional and teleseismic events were also
Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM, sbilek@nmt.edu; recorded. Interestingly, the stations, both the high-frequency and broadband, were
ANDERSON, K, Socorro, NM, kent@iris.edu able to record a cluster of large number of events took place during August of 2014
Ice covered regions comprise >10% of Earth’s continental area; and include at the Iraqi-Iranian border approximately 150 kilometers to the east-northeast of
regions with poorly understood ice dynamics, ice shelf stability, hydrology, the installation site. The largest magnitude of these events was 6.2. According to
tectonic histories and basic geologic structure both deep and shallow. Scientific local authority, 60 people were injured by this event. Also large number of smaller
investigations of these regions are challenged by extreme weather, limited and events were not reported by any monitoring agency.
expensive logistics, and the physical conditions of the ice environment. We report
on the next development of a new NSF MRI-supported community seismic
capability for studying ice-covered regions– the Geophysical Earth Observatory for
Ice Covered Environments (GEOICE). This project is fundamentally motivated
by the need to densify and optimize the collection of high-quality data relevant to
key solid Earth and cryosphere science questions. The instrument capability will Structural Health Monitoring and Earthquake Damage
include a hybrid seismograph pool of broadband and intermediate elements, for Detection in Structures
observation of both long-period (e.g., long-period surface waves and slow sources) Poster Session · Tuesday · 21 April · Exhibit Hall A
and intermediate-to-short-period (e.g., teleseismic body waves local seismicity,
impulsive or extended glaciogenic signals). The GEOICE instrument, and its
power and other ancillary systems, will be specifically designed to both withstand Earthquake Damage Estimation of the Building Inventory in the Valley
conditions associated with icy environments, including cold/wet conditions and of Mexico based on Semi-coupled Long Period (T>1s) Large Scale 3D
high-latitude solar limitations, and to require minimal installation time and Earthquake Simulations and Building Models
logistical load (i.e., size and weight), while maximizing ease-of-use in the field, in QUIROZ-RAMIREZ, A., Instituto de Ingenieria, Mexico City, DF, Mexico,
data handling, and in telemetry compatibility. Key features will include a design AQuirozR@iingen.unam.mx; RAMIREZ-GUZMAN, L., Instituto de Ingenieria,
that integrates the seismometer and data logger into a single environmentally and Mexico City, DF, Mexico, LRamirezG@iingen.unam.mx
mechanically robust housing, very low power requirements (<˜1 watt) for the
intermediate-band systems, and advanced power/battery systems that optimize In this study, we investigate the potentially destructive effects on Mexico City’s
battery capacity and operational limits. The envisioned ˜125 element GEOICE infrastructure from earthquakes. The estimates are computed via large scale
instruments will nearly double the current polar inventory of stations and will be finite element earthquake simulations, using a recently developed Central Mexico
maintained and supported at the IRIS PASSCAL Instrument Center. region crustal and geotechnical 3D model, a detailed city model based on the
latest building inventory of Mexico City, and simplified interstory drifts damage
Development of an Active Source Field Calibration System criteria. Two historical scenarios, the Mw=8.0 September 19th 1985 Michoacan,
ZEILER, C. P., Boulder, WY, cleatz@yahoo.com and the Mw=5.8 June 16th Huitzuco earthquakes, together with a hypothetical
Mw=7.4 earthquake located in the Guerrero Gap, are simulated. The velocity
The Pinedale Seismic Research Facility (PSRF) has conducted seismic system model we employed incorporates results from geophysical experiments and detailed
testing and field calibration experiments for many years. Previous experiments geotechnical information within the Valley of Mexico. All computations are
relied on the ambient noise levels to establish the noise floor for the systems valid to 1.0Hz, with a minimum s-wave speed of 50m/s in the Valley, and
and large seismic events were used to confirm the system response. To further incorporate the city-soil effect using a simplified model of the city. The ˜1.5 million
enhance the calibration capability at the PSRF an active source weight drop was buildings used in our computations are derived from the available inventories
used to identify site-specific anomalies. Two testing methods, vertical drop and of the Mexican Federal District’s counties, LIDAR data, and empirical rules
forty-five degree drop, were employed during the experiment with two different to determine their equivalent elastic properties. Simulated ground motions and
configurations, a radial drop location and an equidistant step-out pattern. While intensity parameters at the base of the city’s simplified building models are used
some of the anomalies can be attributed to the rough terrain, key features of the to test the performance of structures in a neighborhood of Mexico City (La
source repeatability and system specific differences are highlighted. The source used Roma) via the evaluation of more detailed frame-based building models generated
was a one hundred pound nitrogen spring released mechanically using hydraulics. using an automated system we developed for this task. Interstory drifts for each
No operational or systematic difference was demonstrated in the data for the source building and scenario are computed and compared against the current local
and maximum amplitudes were within 10% of each other at each hit location. building code using simplified criteria. Maps highlighting the damaged structures
While the radial drop locations for each hit could not be precisely conducted are presented but no obvious pattern distribution is identified in this preliminary
equidistant from the sensor locations, the primary purpose was to verify the three study.

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Data-Driven Post-Earthquake Rapid Structural Safety Assessment the structural health monitoring expertise and resources to this problem for
GOULET, J. A., University of California, Berkeley, CA, james.a.goulet@ over two years. Data from accelerometers, inclinometers, an ultrasonic (dynamic)
gmail.com; MICHEL, C., Swiss Seismological Service, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland, anemometer, thermometers, and displacement sensors are continuously recorded
clotaire@sed.ethz.ch; DER KIUREGHIAN, A., University of California, at high (200 Hz) sample rates with 24-bit digital resolution using standard seismic
Berkeley, CA, adk@ce.Berkeley.edu dataloggers. Various system identification methods along with finite element
modeling were employed to explore detailed behavior of the structures. Laser
Earthquake prone cities are exposed to important societal and financial losses. scanning was used to create a point cloud model and then a finite element
An important part of these losses stems from the inability to use structures as model of the structures. Observations show that the structure’s fundamental
shelters or for generating economic activity after the event of an earthquake. The frequency,quasi-static deformation, and crack movement vary during a day due
inability to use structures is not only due to collapse or damage; it is also due to thermal changes. Thermal loading of finite element models of the main tower
to the lack of knowledge about their safety state, which prohibits their normal agrees with the observed behavior. The current data set shows that both small
use. Because a diagnosis is required for thousands of structures, city-scale safety earthquakes and moderate winds produce crack motions equaling thermal levels.
assessment requires solutions that are economically sustainable and scalable. Data- Structural monitoring continues to capture earthquakes and windstorms and to
driven algorithms supported by sensing technologies have the potential to solve this provide long-term health monitoring of this landmark. Results have and will
challenge. Several ambient vibration monitoring studies of buildings, before and inform the repair and conservation efforts.
after earthquakes, have shown that the extent of damage in a building is correlated
with a decrease in the natural frequency. However, the observed worldwide data
may not be representative of specific cities due to factors such as construction A Seismogeodetic Approach to Building Monitoring Using Low-Cost MEMS
type, quality, material, age, etc. In this paper we propose a framework that is able Accelerometers
to progressively learn the relationship between frequency shift and damage state SAUNDERS, J. K., UCSD, La Jolla, CA, jksaunde@ucsd.edu; BOCK, Y.,
as a small number of buildings in a city are inspected after an earthquake, and
to use that information to predict the safety state of uninspected but monitored UCSD, La Jolla, CA, ybock@ucsd.edu; FLEISCHMAN, R., University of
buildings. The capacity of the proposed framework to learn and perform prognosis Arizona, Tucson, AZ, rfleisch@email.arizona.edu; GENG, J., UCSD, La Jolla,
is validated by applying the methodology to a city with 1000 buildings having CA, jgeng@ucsd.edu; GOLDBERG, D. E., UCSD, La Jolla, CA, degoldberg@
simulated frequency shifts and damage states. This study is in press in the special ucsd.edu; HAASE, J. S., UCSD, La Jolla, CA, jhaase@ucsd.edu; MELGAR,
issue Earthquake Engineering and Structural Health Monitoring of Earthquake D., University of California, Berkeley, CA, dmelgar@berkeley.edu; NEMA, A.,
Engineering and Structural Dynamics. UCSD, La Jolla, CA, anema@ucsd.edu; OFFIELD, D. G.; Scripps Institution of
Oceanography, UCSD; La Jolla, CA; goffield@ucsd.edu; RESTREPO, J.; Jacobs
School of Engineering, UCSD; La Jolla, CA; jrestrepo@ucsd.edu; SQUIBB, M.;
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD; La Jolla, CA; msquibb@ucsd.edu;
A New Paradigm for Structural Health Monitoring and Post-Disaster Damage
ZHANG, Z.; University of Arizona; Tucson, AZ; zhangz@email.arizona.edu
Assessment of Civil Structures
EBRAHIMIAN, H., UCSD, La Jolla, CA, hebrahim@ucsd.edu; ASTROZA, R., Building response monitoring in seismically active areas requires accurate strong
UCSD, La Jolla, CA, rastroza@ucsd.edu; CONTE, J. P., UCSD, La Jolla, CA, motion recordings in order to reliably assess building damage after an earthquake.
jpconte@ucsd.edu We describe a method that captures in real time building motion, both
translational and rotational displacements, during a seismic event using high-
This work presents the development and numerical validation of an innovative and
rate GPS observables enhanced by collocated accelerometer observations through
advanced structural health monitoring (SHM) and damage identification (DID)
a Kalman filter. Our seismogeodetic solution combines the low frequency
methodology derived by integrating high-fidelity mechanics-based nonlinear finite
information from the GPS with the high frequency response of accelerometers for
element (FE) structural modeling and analysis techniques with the Bayesian
a larger bandwidth of recorded coseismic motion compared to either instrument
inference approach. Recognizing structural damage as the manifestation of material
alone. Since large-scale deployment of seismogeodetic stations is limited by the
nonlinearity, this methodology can be employed for rapid damage identification
high cost of observatory-grade accelerometers, we tested a low-cost alternative
(detection, localization, classification, and quantification of damage) in critical
MEMS accelerometer package built at SIO. GNSS (GPS+GLONASS) geodetic
civil structures after catastrophic events (such as earthquakes, hurricanes, blast,
receivers collocated with MEMS accelerometers were installed on the foundation
etc.). In this methodology, batch or recursive Bayesian estimation methods are
and roof of a four-story structure on the NEES Large High Performance Outdoor
utilized to update the nonlinear FE model of a civil structure (such as a building,
Shake Table at UC San Diego for testing of an inertial force-limiting anchorage
bridge, dam, etc.) using the input-output or output-only dynamic data recorded
system to improve seismic building response. Two of the locations were also
during a potentially damage-inducing event. Capable of capturing the complex
equipped with an observatory-grade Episensor accelerometer. We measure the
damage mechanisms in the structural system, the updated nonlinear FE model
instrument response of the MEMS accelerometer and assess the sensitivity to
can then be interrogated to rapidly and accurately evaluate the state of health
different levels of shaking. The asymmetric design of the structure induced large
or damage and the remaining useful life of the structure after the damage-
rotations and tilts of the building, allowing for testing of the anchorage system
inducing event. This new methodology is capable of real-world applications and
in two lateral components even though the shake table input was in only one
can provide vital information to guide emergency response management and
direction. We assess the performance of the seismogeodetic solutions using both
reduce the risk of fatalities during the critical period of time following a disastrous
types of accelerometers. We further show that seismogeodetic solutions with the
event and therefore, will result in significant improvements in the areas of disaster
MEMS accelerometers are capable of measuring permanent and dynamic coseismic
management, risk mitigation, and public safety.
displacements and investigate the ability to estimate tilt. Reliable measurements
of drift on the rooftop are important for assessing the probability of building
damage.
Multi-sensor, Multi-scale Structural Health Monitoring of Damage to the
Watts Towers
ABAZARSA, F., UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, abazarsa@gmail.com; ENGLISH,
J., UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, engtribe@ucla.edu; NIGBOR, R., UCLA, Los Time-Wave Velocity Analysis for Early Earthquake Damage Detection in
Angeles, CA, nigbor@ucla.edu; PREUSSER, F., LACMA, Los Angeles, CA, Buildings: Application to a Damaged Full-Scale RC Building
fpreusser@lacma.org; TACIROGLU, E., UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, etacir@ RAHMANI, M., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA,
ucla.edu mrahmani@usc.edu; EBRAHIMIAN, M., University of Southern California,
Los Angeles, CA, mebrahim@usc.edu; TODOROVSKA, M. I., University of
The Watts Towers are a National Historic Landmark consisting of 17 Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, mtodorov@usc.edu
interconnected structures built by one artist, Simon Rodia, between 1921 and
1955. The two tallest towers are 100 feet high. Cracking of the plaster covering An algorithm for time-velocity analysis of building response is presented, which
the structural elements, and environmental degradation of the internal steel, has identifies the wave velocity of vertically propagating waves through the building
always been a problem for this cultural resource. Conservation scientists from the and detects their changes. The algorithm is intended for use in structural health
Los Angeles County Museum of Art are studying the structures and are developing monitoring systems for rapid assessment of the structural health and integrity
a long-term conservation strategy. An important part of this development is to following an earthquake. The velocities are identified by an interferometric
understand and monitor the behavior of this complex structural system. Potential algorithm, which involves least squares fit of pulses in impulse response functions.
causes of the cracking damage are thermal, wind, and earthquake loading. These An important feature of this method is that it is not sensitive to the effects
have very different time scales and measurement needs. UCLA has contributed of soil-structure interaction. The algorithm is applied to a 12-story reinforced

on 09 October 2018
concrete building in Los Angeles, lightly damaged by the San Fernando, 1971 The Feasibility Examination of Extracting Story-by-story Shear-wave Velocity
earthquake. The results of the time-velocity analysis are critically compared with From Microtremor Records of High-rise Buildings
results of analysis of input power, interstory drift and instantaneous frequency. WANG, X., Tohoku University, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan, wang@irides.
The identified average vertical wave velocity was initially ˜140 m/s for the NS and tohoku.ac.jp; MASAKI, K., Aichi Institute of Technology, Toyota, Aichi,
˜110 m/s for the EW response, and reduced by ˜26% and 32% respectively. The Japan, masaki@aitech.ac.jp; IRIKURA, K., Aichi Institute of Technology,
detected reduction of the fundamental frequency of vibration was larger (˜44% Toyota, Aichi, Japan, irikura@geor.or.jp; MOTOSAKA, M., Tohoku University,
for the NS and 48% for the EW response). The difference is interpreted to be Sendai, Miyagi, Japan, wang@irides.tohoku.ac.jp
due to softening of the soil-foundation system, to which the identified frequency
of vibration is sensitive. The change was larger in the lower half of the building During the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, due to the long-period and
(˜31% for the NS and ˜37% for the EW response) as compared to the upper half -duration ground motions, many high-rise buildings initiated large relative
(˜24% for the NS and ˜27% for the EW response), consistent with the observed displacement. After the earthquake, early alert of damage and state-of-health
damage. monitoring of high-rise buildings becomes significant consideration. Because the
response of high-rise buildings are very complicated, the damage parts are difficult
to predict, especially for buildings with reinforced members and damper devices.
Therefore, the health monitoring of high-rise buildings should be performed
Is Ambient Excitation as Effective as the Larger Amplitude Earthquake intensively to each story. The wave propagation method is a desired approach to
Excitation for Detecting Earthquake Damage in Full-Scale Structures? Some evaluate the response property of each story with simple measurement device. In
Results Based on Shake Table Tests of a Full-Scale 7-Story Building Slice order to examine the feasibility of extracting shear-wave velocity, we use three
EBRAHIMIAN, M., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, models. The model 1 is a normal case, all the stories vibrating in bending-
mebrahim@usc.edu; TODOROVSKA, M. I., University of Southern California, shear mode. The model 2 and model 3 present buildings whose lower stories
Los Angeles, CA, mtodorov@usc.edu and internal stories vibrate in pure bending mode, respectively. We analyzed the
shear-wave propagation using two methods, the impulse response method and
Earthquake response records and ambient and forced vibration tests data have the deconvolution method (i.e., deconvolution with the response of the top of
been used for structural system identification and health monitor of full-scale buildings), and compared them. Aligning the deconvolved wave obtained at every
structures. These three types of excitation differ in amplitude and nature. Rarely floor, the up-going wave from the base and the down-going wave reflected from
there have been opportunities to compare directly their effectiveness for health the top are clearly distinguished, although the interference of up-going waves and
monitoring. The experiment of a full-scale slice of a 7-story reinforced concrete down-going waves reflected by the inter floors slightly confuse the extraction of the
(RC) building carried out on the UCSD-NEES shake table presents such an impulse propagation. Shear-wave velocity of stories vibrating in pure bending mode
opportunity. Data is available on NEES website (Panagiotou et al. 2013 on cannot be extracted using both these two methods. We extracted story-by-story
https://nees.org/). The specimen is a slice of a RC building, consisting of two shear-wave velocity from microtremor records measured at two high-rise buildings,
perpendicular shear walls. It was shaken by four earthquakes of increasing intensity Building-A (29 story) and Building-B (25 story). The story-by-story shear-wave
which progressively damaged the structure. Ambient vibration and white noise velocities from the 9th to the top floors at Building-A are clearly obtained, but the
excitation tests of two intensities were carried out before and after each earthquake shear-wave velocity at stories lower than the 9th floor cannot be extracted because
test. We compare the changes in two damage sensitive parameters, the fundamental of the change of the vibration mode. The shear-wave velocities of all the stories at
frequency of vibration (f1) and the compressional wave velocity (cL), identified the Building-B can be extracted, and shear-wave velocities in the two axes are also
for each damage state and each of the four types of excitation (ambient, white very similar.
noise and earthquake). We identified f1 from the peak frequency in the transfer
function, and cL by least squares fit of a uniform Timoshenko beam model by
matching low pass filtered impulse response functions. The specimen behaves
like Rayleigh beam. Analysis of the values of the identified f1 and cL indicate Maximum Response Evaluation of Traditional Wooden Buildings based on
softening for larger amplitude excitation. Analysis of their changes with increasing Seismic Observation and Experimental Result
damage state shows that measurable and comparable changes were detected for all SUGINO, M., Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan, rp-sugino@archi.kyoto-u.ac.jp;
types of excitations. In f1, changes were the largest for the earthquake excitation, OHMURA, S., Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan, rp-ohmura@archi.kyoto-u.ac.jp;
while in cL changes were generally similar in magnitude. Comparison of the HAYASHI, Y., Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan, hayashi@archi.kyoto-u.
changes in f1 and cL shows that the changes are similar for the ambient and ac.jp
white noise excitations, while, for the earthquake excitations, the changes in
f1 are larger than the changes in cL (by about 25% for the higher levels of There are many traditional wooden buildings forming a historical townscape in
damage). Japan. We have conducted seismic observation and microtremor measurement to
such traditional wooden buildings. The equivalent natural frequency of traditional
wooden buildings is calculated easily from the Fourier transform of the response
acceleration which is obtained from seismic observation. It has been reported
Using Structural Health Monitoring Techniques to Determine the Effect of that the equivalent natural frequency of traditional wooden buildings decreases
Infill Walls on Dynamic Behavior of Steel Structures as the maximum deformation angle of buildings increases during an earthquake.
SUMER, Y., Sakarya University, Sakarya, Turkey, ysumer@sakarya.edu.tr; Nevertheless, the equivalent natural frequency at a large deformation angle is
BORU, E., Sakarya University, Sakarya, Turkey, eorak@sakarya.edu.tr; unknown because there have been few seismic observation results of which
AGCAKOCA, E., Sakarya University, Sakarya, Turkey, elifd@sakarya.edu.tr; traditional wooden buildings deform over 1/1000 rad. In this study, the equivalent
AKTAS, M., Sakarya University, Sakarya, Turkey, muharrema@sakarya.edu.tr; natural frequency from about 1/1000 rad to 1/10 rad was obtained from shaking
KUYUK, H. S., Sakarya University, Sakarya, Turkey, serdarkuyuk@gmail.com table test and static lateral loading test of various traditional wooden frames.
We evaluated this amplitude dependency of the equivalent natural frequency
Infill walls are assumed as non-structural elements in structural frame systems by a simple regression equation. It was found that the maximum deformation
consisting beams and columns. On the other hand, these infill walls are effective in angle of traditional wooden buildings against expected ground motion was easily
a building by means of increasing stiffness, bearing capacity, period and damping estimated by applying the natural frequency which was obtained from microtremor
ratio under both the seismic and vertical loads. Since finite element modeling measurement and the equation of amplitude dependency of the equivalent natural
of infill walls requires various assumptions, numerical results will include some frequency to capacity spectrum method. This is because the equation of amplitude
uncertainties. Thus, effects of infill walls can only be determined by the approach dependency of the equivalent natural frequency can express seismic capacity of
of structural health monitoring. Here, 3-story steel building with 4.5 m floor height buildings without the skeleton curve of restoring force characteristics. Therefore,
and floor plan of 35.6m x 39m is examined by instrumenting with eight Capacitive it is possible to estimate the maximum deformation angle of buildings easily soon
Force Micromachined (with 32-bit high resolution, and 120 db dynamic range) after an earthquake if microtremor measurement has been conducted before the
strong motion sensors at two stages: same structure with and without infill walls. earthquake.
The effects of infill walls are investigated by employing operational modal analysis
on the records obtained under ambient vibration condition. Enhanced Frequency
Domain Decomposition method is employed to determine dynamic characteristics
such as natural frequency, and mode shape of structure at both stages. Both data are Low Price Seismic and Structural Response Measurement Method Using
compared to see the effect of infill walls on the definition of dynamic characteristics Smart Devices
of the structure. These results will also help to model infill walls in finite element DANG, J., Saitama University, Saitama City, Japan, dangji@mail.saitama-
studies. u.ac.jp; WANG, X., Tohoku University, Saitama City, Japan, wang@irides.

on 09 October 2018
tohoku.ac.jp; SHRESTHA, A., Saitama University, Saitama City, Japan, mismatch between US database and Goel and Chopra relationship is around 20%
s14me121@mail.saitama-u.ac.jp; KIKUCHI, Y., Saitama University, Saitama as expected according the difference between elastic and yield periods. On the
City, Japan, s11tc019@mail.saitama-u.ac.jp other side, the mismatch between EU database and EC8 relationship increases
with the height of the building up to 60%. We investigated possible reasons for this
This study proposed a low price vibration measurement method using differences, and the role of the infills seems at the moment the most important.
commercially available smart devices, such as smart phones or tablets. This
technique can be used for dense seismic observation or structural seismic response
monitoring with extremely low initial and maintenance cost. Measurement Seismic Response of Bridge Foundations Considering Nonlinear Soil
application programs are developed for acceleration measuring, recording, data Structure Interaction Effect
storing inside the devices and data synchronizing with cloud server through KIRTEL, O., Sakarya University, Sakarya, Turkey, okirtel@sakarya.edu.tr;
wifi internet connection. The reliable arrange of using these low cost devices CELEBI, E., Sakarya University, Sakarya. Turkey, ecelebi@sakarya.edu.tr;
in structural vibration measuring are evaluated by shake table tests. The AKTAS, M., Sakarya University, Sakarya. Turkey, muharrema@sakarya.edu.tr;
feasibility of using Smart Devices to conduct micro tremor survey is also KUYUK, H. S., Sakarya University, Sakarya. Turkey, serdarkuyuk@gmail.com
attempted. The problem and usability are summarized for the proposed
method. Because, recent studies proved that soil structure interaction is crucial in the
dynamic response of structures, soil-foundation system should also be considered in
structural health monitoring. There are two approaches to consider soil- structure
Significant Change Detection from Airborne Lidar Point Clouds interactions: direct method and sub structure method. However; most studies does
JALOBEANU, A., BayesMap Solutions, LLC, Castro Valley, CA, andre. not consider nonlinear soil behavior in these analysis. Here, seismic response of
jalobeanu@gmail.com; KIM, A. M., Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, bridge is determined by using substructure method employing both linear and
amkim@nps.edu; RUNYON, S. C., Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, non-linear dynamic impedance functions, which are obtained for strip foundation
scrunyon@nps.edu; OLSEN, R. C., Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, considering Adapazari—Turkey soil conditions. Super structure is modeled as
olsen@nps.edu; KRUSE, F. A., Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, a bridge pier with strip foundation considering rigid, linear and non-linear soil
fakruse@nps.edu behavior. Variations of period and base shear force of the soil-structure system are
compared under these soil behaviors. Dynamic foundation impedance functions
Remote sensing technologies have become increasingly important for are calculated considering design spectrum given in Turkish Earthquake code.
characterization of natural disasters such as earthquakes. Pre- and post-event Moreover, relative deflection at the top of the structure is achieved at time domain
LiDAR data can be used to identify and quantify changes to topography, such by using 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake acceleration records. Results of the study showed
as co-seismic deformation and structural damage. However, a major difficulty that the period of the system is increased when non-linear foundation impedance
consists of producing reliable change maps that reflect actual height variations, functions are used. On the other hand, base shear force acting on the structure is
not artifacts due to noise or differences in collection conditions. Indeed, the decreased. Relative displacement at the top of the structure is also decreased when
newest scan usually has higher accuracy and density than the reference dataset. both linear and non-linear impedance functions are included in the analysis.
We developed a method that accounts for various sources of uncertainty such
as measurement noise, differences and fluctuations in point density, different
acquisition geometries, georeferencing errors and geometric discrepancies. It
enables us to compute statistically significant change detection maps. The method
is automated, as the user only has to choose a significance level. The technique uses The August 24, 2014 South Napa, CA Earthquake: Science
Bayesian inference to estimate a spatial distribution of uncertainty directly from
the point clouds. Taking into account uncertainties enables a change detection Results, Impacts and Lessons Learned
that is robust to random noise, systematic geometric errors, as well as terrain Poster Session · Tuesday · 21 April · Exhibit Hall A
roughness and vegetation. The approach was validated using small-scale models
scanned with a terrestrial LiDAR scanner in a laboratory setting. It was then
applied to real airborne data of the Monterey Peninsula, CA, having different Coseismic and Postseismic Deformation Due to the South Napa Earthquake
point densities and some mis-registration errors. Sparse changes were detected Inferred from Geodetic Data
and interpreted as construction, maintenance and landscape evolution. A new, MURRAY, J. R., U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, jrmurray@usgs.gov;
fast and robust point cloud alignment method had to be developed to correct the SVARC, J., U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, jsvarc@usgs.gov;
largest geometric discrepancies so the comparison could be done automatically, POLLITZ, F., U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, fpollitz@usgs.gov;
even without initial co-registration. This technique, used locally, should be able FLOYD, M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, mfloyd@
to estimate the horizontal ground displacement; we are currently testing it on El mit.edu; FUNNING, G., U.C. Riverside, Riverside, CA, gareth@ucr.edu;
Mayor-Cucapah earthquake data collected by NCALM. JOHANSON, I., U.C. Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, ingrid@seismo.berkeley.edu;
BROOKS, B., U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, bbrooks@usgs.gov
Experimental Period-Height Relationships vs. Building Code Provisions In EU Deformation due to the 24 August 2014 M6 South Napa earthquake was
and USA recorded by continuous GPS (CGPS) sites of the Plate Boundary Observatory,
GALLIPOLI, M. R., National Research Council - IMAA, Tito Scalo, PZ, Bay Area Regional Deformation, and USGS networks. Survey-mode GPS (SGPS)
Italt, mariarosaria.gallipoli@imaa.cnr.it; GUEGUEN, P., ISTerre, Université measurements were carried out following the event to densify the spatial coverage
de Grenoble -Alpes, CNRS/IFSTTAR, Grenoble, France, philippe.gueguen@ujf- and record postseismic motion. Earthquake offsets determined from time series of
grenoble.fr; MASI, A., School of Engineering, Basilicata University, Potenza, average positions estimated at five minute intervals are ˜70% (median value) those
Italy, angelo.masi@unibas.it; MUCCIARELLI, M., CRS-OGS, Trieste, Italy, found from daily average positions (with the 24 August position calculated from
mmucciarelli@inogs.it; PERRAULT, M., ISTerre, Université de Grenoble - only post-earthquake data), demonstrating that postseismic deformation occurred
Alpes, CNRS/IFSTTAR, Grenoble, France immediately following the coseismic slip. Both horizontal and vertical postseismic
motion are evident, but the postseismic displacement is smaller relative to the
The fundamental period of vibration is a parameter needed both in design of new coseismic and dies off more quickly than has been observed for recent earthquakes
buildings and in assessment of existing ones. These periods can be determined on creeping faults of the San Andreas system. We fit the daily position time series
through empirical relationships (e.g. simplified period-height expressions), for sites within ˜35 km of the epicenter with a combination of coseismic offset and
numerical simulations (eigenvalue analysis) and experimental measurements a simplified Omori decay (Langbein et al., 2006) that begins immediately after the
(ambient vibration or earthquake recordings). Here we report the comparison event. The cumulative displacement from 25 August 2014 to 24 November 2014
between elastic fundamental period estimates for two data sets: an US database, is ˜35% (median value) of that estimated for 24 August. The spatial pattern of GPS
consisting of 318 RC buildings and an European Union database of 244 RC displacements suggests that postseismic slip was shallower than the coseismic slip
buildings. The experimental period-height relationships are compared with the and stronger along the southeast half of the rupture trace. Results from an inversion
formula used in seismic design codes, i.e. Goel and Chopra formula for US and of GPS data for coseismic slip and a joint inversion of GPS and InSAR for coseismic
EC8 provisions for EU. The two empirical relationships are quite different, with and postseismic slip both show >1 meter of slip above 5 km depth, highlighting
US buildings returning a much higher period for the same heights of EU RC a possible discrepancy with the smaller (<0.5 meter) surface offsets measured at
buildings. Moreover, we have calculated the mismatch between the EU database the fault trace. Imperfect separation of coseismic and postseismic signals in the
with EC8 relationship and the US database with Goel and Chopra formula. The time series analysis may contribute to the discrepancy, but other factors including

on 09 October 2018
unmodeled source geometry complexity or postseismic processes in addition to eight times as many aftershocks at Parkfield as at South Napa. We discuss the
afterslip may be important as well. observed differences in terms of the much larger recurrence interval for South
Napa earthquake. We also focus our attention on the largest “aftershock” of the
South Napa earthquake, a triggered m Ÿ 4.38 event at The Geysers geothermal
Unusual Downhole and Surface Free-Field Records Near Carquinez Bridges field. There is a high level of induced seismicity at The Geysers associated with large
During 24 August 2014 M6.0 South Napa, CA, Earthquake scale injections of cold water for enhanced geothermal recovery. There were some
CELEBI, M., USGS, Menlo Park, CA, celebi@usgs.gov 30 events with m > 1.5 in the hour after the triggered earthquake. These events
were a combination of secondary aftershocks of the large triggered earthquake and
Unusually high-amplitude ground motions from the Mw 6 South Napa earthquake other triggered events. We compare the statistics of these events with the statistics
on June 24, 2014, were recorded at a pair of geotechnical arrays located at the of a reference Geysers m = 4.48 earthquake that occurred on 01/12/2014. This
south ends of a pair of parallel bridges crossing the Carquinez Strait, about 19 earthquake had some 70 aftershocks with m > 1.5 in the hour after the mainshock.
km from the epicenter (Shakal et. al., 2014). One site recorded a PGA of ˜1g
(PGV 22 cm/s), and the other recorded a PGA of ˜0.42 g (PGV 20 cm/s). These
motions are much higher than the maximum ground motions of 0.15g and 0.09g Forecasting the (Un)Productivity of the 2014 M6.0 South Napa Aftershock
at both the suspension and the cantilever truss bridges. The maximum structural Sequence
motions on the two bridges were 1.09 g and 0.79 g, respectively, but neither bridge LLENOS, A. L., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, allenos@usgs.gov;
was damaged. In contrast, there was significant damage in the city of Napa, near MICHAEL, A. J., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, michael@usgs.gov
the epicenter, where peak ground motions ranged up to 0.6 g (pga) and 93 cm/s
(pgv). Spectral ratios computed from amplitude spectra of horizontal accelerations The M6.0 August 24 2014 South Napa mainshock produced fewer aftershocks
at the surface and at the deepest borehole (at -45.7 m at Geotech Array 1 and at than expected for a California earthquake of its magnitude. In the first 4.5 days,
-125 m for Geotech Array 2) indicate that at frequencies higher than 1.5 Hz (the only 59 M=1.8 aftershocks had occurred, the largest of which was a M3.9 that
significant fundamental frequencies of either bridge are <1Hz) there is significant happened a little over two days after the mainshock. In contrast, during the same
amplification at both sites. Thus, the large peak accelerations at the surface of the time period the 2004 M6.0 Parkfield earthquake had over 220 M=1.8 aftershocks,
geotechnical arrays are due to site effects at the south end of the bridges. 6 of which were M=4. We investigate the aftershock productivity and other
sequence statistics of the South Napa sequence and compare it with other M=5.5
California mainshock-aftershock sequences. The b-values of the magnitude-
Rates and Patterns of Coseismic and Postseismic Surface Deformation from frequency distributions all fall in the 0.6-0.8 range for the northern California
the South Napa Earthquake as Measured by Terrestrial Laser Scanning sequences, slightly lower than the b-value of ˜1 typical of southern California
DELONG, S. B., U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, sdelong@usgs.gov; seismicity. Also, northern California strike-slip mainshocks generally have fewer
LIENKAEMPER, J. J., U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, aftershocks than strike-slip events further south, although the productivities vary
jjlienk@usgs.gov widely in both regions. An Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model
(Ogata, JASA, 1988) fit to Napa seismicity from 1980-August 23 2014 describes
The 2014 M6.0 South Napa Earthquake, despite its moderate magnitude, caused the sequence well and suggests that low-productivity sequences are typical of this
significant damage to the Napa Valley in northern California. Surface rupture area. Utilizing spatial variations in these parameters could improve operational
occurred along several mapped and unmapped faults. Field observations following earthquake forecasting (OEF), by improving the model used immediately after
the earthquake indicated that the magnitude of postseismic surface slip was likely the mainshock. We show this by comparing the daily rate of M=2 aftershocks to
to approach or exceed the maximum coseismic surface slip and as such presented forecasts made with the generic California model (Reasenberg and Jones, Science,
ongoing hazard to infrastructure. Using a laser scanner, we monitored postseismic 1989), the ETAS model based on pre-mainshock seismicity, and ETAS models
deformation in three dimensions through time along 0.5 km of the main surface updated daily following the mainshock. All ETAS models forecast the aftershock
rupture. A key component of this study is the demonstration of proper alignment rates more accurately than the generic model. Robust models where only the
of repeat surveys using point-cloud based methods that minimize error imposed by productivity is updated provide better forecasts than those where all or none of
both local survey errors and GNSS georeferencing errors. Using solid modeling of the parameters are updated. Forecasts using localized initial parameters and rapidly
natural and cultural features, we quantify lateral postseismic slip at several hundred updating the productivity may be better for OEF than using the generic model
points near the main fault trace. We also quantify total lateral slip of initially and/or updating all parameters.
straight cultural features. Total right-lateral slip from both coseismic slip and the
first 2.5 days of postseismic slip ranges from 22 to 29 cm. These values increased
to 33 to 42 cm at 59 days post-earthquake. Furthermore, we are able to map up The 2014 Mw6.1 South Napa Earthquake: an Energetic Event with Shallow
to 15 cm of vertical deformation in the first 2.5 days post-earthquake which then Asperity and Rapid Afterslip
increased by ˜2 cm by 59 days post-earthquake. This vertical change is not expressed WEI, S. J., EOS-NTU, Singapore, shjwei@gmail.com; BARBOT, S., EOS-
as a distinct step or scarp at the fault trace but rather is expressed as a broad up- NTU, Singapore, sylbar.vainbot@gmail.com; GRAVES, R., USGS, Pasadena,
to-the west zone of increasing elevation change spanning the fault trace over a CA, rwgraves@usgs.gov; LIENKAEMPER, J., USGS, Menlo Park, CA,
˜50 m width. Integrating these analyses provides three-dimensional mapping of jlienk@usgs.gov; WANG, T., KAUST, Saudi Arabia, Teng.Wang@kaust.edu.sa;
surface deformation, and identifies spatial variability in slip along the main fault HUDNUT, K., USGS, Pasadena, CA, hudnut@usgs.gov; FU, Y., JPL,
trace that we attribute to distributed slip via subtle block rotation. These results Pasadena, CA, yfu@alaska.edu; HELMBERGER, D. V., Caltech, Pasadena, CA,
indicate the benefits of 3D surveys along active faults, and demonstrate that fine helm@gps.caltech.edu
scale variability in fault slip have been missed by traditional earthquake response
methods. The 2014 South Napa Earthquake is the largest inland event in northern California
since the 1989 Mw6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. The earthquake was well recorded
by seismic and geodetic (i.e., InSAR and GPS) instruments as well as field
Aftershock Statistics of the 2014 South Napa Earthquake observations, which provide excellent data sets to investigate the kinematic rupture
YIKILMAZ, M. B., UC Davis, Davis, CA, mbyikilmaz@ucdavis.edu; process and postseismic deformation. Our analysis indicates that the rupture
SHCHERBAKOV, R., Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada, rshcherb@ occurred on two abutting fault segments, each dipping about 82◦ to the northeast,
uwo.ca; TURCOTTE, D. L., UC Davis, Davis, CA, dlturcotte@ucdavis.edu; with strikes of 338◦ and 351◦ , respectively. The northeast dip of the fault is
KELLOGG, L. H., UC Davis, Davis, CA, lhkellogg@ucdavis.edu; RUNDLE, J. consistent with our relocation of the mainshock epicenter and the mapped surface
B., UC Davis, Davis, CA, john.b.rundle@gmail.com rupture. Our strong-motion inversion result indicates that the rupture propagated
unilaterally to the northwest and most of the co-seismic slip occurred along the
In this study we consider the aftershock statistics of the 8/24/2014 mw = 6.02 shallow portion of the northern fault segment about 10 km along strike from the
South Napa earthquake and compare them to the aftershock statistics of the epicenter. Relatively little slip occurred in the hypocentral region of the fault. Our
9/28/2004 mw = 6.0 Parkfield earthquake. Unlike the Parkfield earthquake, the static-slip inversion using InSAR data shows two strong asperities located along the
frequency magnitude scaling of the South Napa aftershocks is in relatively poor shallow portion of each fault segment, corresponding to two peaks in the moment-
agreement with Gutenberg-Richter (GR) scaling. There appears to be a systematic rate function. The northern asperity is consistent with the location and strength
lack of larger m > 2.5 aftershocks during the first day. The decay rates of aftershock of that determined in our strong-motion inversion; however, the southern asperity
activity after the South Napa earthquake are in good agreement with Omori’s law. is located in a region having relatively little co-seismic slip in the strong motion
However, the productivity is quite low. The difference between the mainshock model. This apparent discrepancy is resolved by accounting for the contribution
magnitude and the magnitude of the largest inferred aftershock (modified Båth’s of afterslip in the static inversion model, and is supported by alignment array
law) is Δm* = 1.88, at Parkfield it was Δm* = 1.00. Thus, there were about observations, which indicate that substantial postseismic deformation occurred

on 09 October 2018
along the southern fault segment in the hours and days following the mainshock the source process. We test the back projection method using the array and
rupture. compare qualitatively our results against finite fault models derived for the scenario.
Additionally, we present preliminary 3D long period (T > 1s ) simulations of the
event using the 3D Velocity Models of the San Francisco Bay region using different
UAVSAR Observations of Co And Postseismic Slip of The M 6.0 South Napa source models and discuss the sensitivity of ground motion parameters used in loss
Earthquake and damage estimations.
DONNELLAN, A., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
andrea.donnellan@jpl.nasa.gov; PARKER, J. W., California Institute of
Technology, Pasadena, CA, Jay.W.Parker@jpl.nasa.gov; GRANT LUDWIG, L., Pre- and Post-Earthquake Paleoseismic Trenching on the West Napa Fault
University of California, Irvine, CA, lgrant@uci.edu; RUNDLE, J. B., University RUBIN, R. S., California Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, ron.rubin@
of California, Davis, CA, john.b.rundle@gmail.com conservation.ca.gov; DAWSON, T. E., California Geological Survey,
Menlo Park, CA, Timothy.Dawson@conservation.ca.gov; MARESCHAL,
The M 6.0 South Napa earthquake occurred on 24 August 2014. Several UAVSAR M., California Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, Maxime.Mareschal@
swaths were flown in May 2014 and about 1 week after the event. The images conservation.ca.gov; MADUGO, D., Earth Consultants International, Tustin,
show slip on several ruptures and extensive disruption in the center of the rupture CA; MADUGO, C., Pacific Gas and Electric, San Francisco, CA
zone, north of the earthquake epicenter. The multiple ruptures are mostly located
east of the zone of aftershocks. Inversion of GPS and UAVSAR data suggests that This poster presents preliminary results of two paleoseismic investigations along
multiple faults ruptured near the surface, but that a single fault can explain most of the West Napa fault (WNF) in 2014, one before the 8/24/14 South Napa
the regional deformation from the event. The geodetic moment is equivalent to a Earthquake (SNE), and one after. The first indicates a previously mapped
M 6.1 event, suggesting a component of aseismic slip to the rupture. The eastern geomorphic feature is not fault-related. The second trench crossed the SNE
ruptures likely represent superficial slip that does not contribute to the overall rupture, and indicates previous rupture events have occurred within the fault zone.
moment release. Imagery collected in the one week to two months after the event In eastern Alston Park a previously mapped trace of the WNF was trenched. The
shows substantial afterslip, but that it is confined to a single fault. It is likely that trench crossed a prominent escarpment interpreted by others to represent evidence
the postseismic slip extends the main rupture upward to the surface following the of Holocene fault activity based on a ˜1-m-deep natural exposure. Our trench was
earthquake. located ˜3 m from this exposure. Faults were not encountered in the trench, and
are precluded by unbroken depositional contacts. We interpret the escarpment is
the result of fluvial and differential erosion rather than faulting based on channels
Aftershock Observation and S-wave Velocity Surveys using Portable encountered in the trench, and geomorphology associated with local drainages. The
Accelerometers on the Surface Rupture of the August 24, 2014 South Napa, SNE surface rupture occurred ˜800 m west of our trench site, at the nearest point.
CA Earthquake The ruptured faults were largely un-mapped before the SNE and have variable
HAYASHI, K., Geometrics, San Jose, CA, khayashi@geometrics.com; geomorphic expression. This study illustrates the value of subsurface investigation
ROUGHLEY, C., California State University„ Hayward, CA, croughley@ in assessing the origin of geomorphic features. At the South Avenue site a trench
horizon.csueastbay.edu; CRAIG, M., California State University, Hayward, CA, was excavated across the SNE rupture. Locally, co-seismic rupture was ˜10-20 cm
mitchell.craig@csueastbay.edu of right lateral displacement. The fault has little or no geomorphic expression at the
site and to the south; however, an ˜1-km-long pre-existing scarp is coincident with
A M6.0 earthquake occurred in Napa, CA on August 24, 2014. We the rupture ˜0.5 km to the north. Within the trench, the SNE rupture can be traced
recorded aftershocks and conducted S-wave velocity (VS) surveys using portable up to the ground surface. Pleistocene alluvium is displaced an unknown amount
accelerometers at three sites in Napa. The accelerometers were deployed at three across the fault zone. Due to limited deposition since the late Pleistocene, the
sites on the day after the mainshock; on the east and west sides of Napa Valley number of events and their ages prior to the SNE rupture are poorly constrained;
and at Stone Bridge School (SBS), which is located directly on the line of however, the recognition of several faults and the geologic juxtaposition indicates
surface rupture. The accelerometers recorded continuous data for two weeks. We repeated offsets have occurred prior to SNE.
reviewed the data at BS and identified at least 500 aftershocks during a one-
week period starting the day after the mainshock. There are approximately 90
aftershocks cataloged in the USGS Earthquake Archive during the same period. Use of Rapid Geodetic Observations for the M6.0 August 24, 2014 South Napa
The magnitude of the aftershocks was estimated from S-P time and maximum Earthquake
vertical velocity amplitude (Watanabe, 1971) from a single station. Estimated YUN, S., Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, shyun@jpl.nasa.gov;
magnitudes range between -0.6 and 3.9. Based on the magnitude-frequency OWEN, S. E., Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, Susan.E.Owen@
relationship, we appear to have detected all aftershocks with magnitude larger jpl.nasa.gov; HUA, H., Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, Hook.
than 0.0, while the aftershocks contained in the USGS Earthquake Archive are Hua@jpl.nasa.gov; MILILLO, P., University of Basilicata, Potenza, Italy,
complete above magnitude 1.0. The S-P time of most aftershocks ranges from 1.4 pietro0milillo@gmail.com; FIELDING, E. J., Jet Propulsion Laboratory,
to 2.0 s. The minimum S-P time is ˜ 1.0 s. A passive surface wave survey using the Pasadena, CA, Eric.J.Fielding@jpl.nasa.gov; HUDNUT, K. W., US
two-station spatial autocorrelation (2ST-SPAC) method was conducted at three Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA, hudnut@usgs.gov; DAWSON, T., California
observation sites. A pair of identical accelerometers was used for data acquisition. Geological Survey, Sacramento, CA, Timothy.Dawson@conservation.ca.gov;
One remained at a fixed location, while the other was placed at a series of offsets BARNHART, W., US Geological Survey, Golden, CO, wbarnhart@usgs.gov;
ranging from 5 to 2000 m. The vertical component of ambient noise was used in MCCRING, T., California Geological Survey, Sacramento, CA, TimMcCrink@
the SPAC analysis to calculate dispersion curves. Phase velocities to a frequency conservation.ca.gov; MURRAY, J. R., US Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA,
of 0.3 Hz were obtained at SBS. VS profiles were estimated by inversion of the jrmurray@usgs.gov; JO, M., Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, mjowen009@
dispersion curves. Depth to bedrock with VS higher than 3000 m/s appears to be gmail.com; MANIPON, G. J., Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA,
at least 2000 m at SBS. The S-P time from the bedrock calculated based on the Geraldjohn.M.Manipon@jpl.nasa.gov; AGRAM, P., Jet Propulsion Laboratory,
VS profile is approximately 1 s. The VS profile obtained by the survey is generally Pasadena, CA, Piyush.Agram@jpl.nasa.gov: MOORE, A. W., Jet Propulsion
consistent with aftershock observation. Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, Angelyn.W.Moore@jpl.nasa.gov; JUNG, H.,
University of Seoul, Seoul, Korea, hsjung@uos.ac.kr; WEBB, F. H., Jet
Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, Frank.H.Webb@jpl.nasa.gov: MILILLO,
An Analysis of Back Projection and Source Sensitivity of the August 24th G., Italian Space Agency (ASI), Matera, Italy, giovanni.milillo@asi.it;
Napa Earthquake, Using 3D Simulations ROSINSKI, A., California Geological Survey, Sacramento, CA, Anne Rosinski@
AGUIRRE, J., Instituto de Ingeniería, Mexico City, D. F., Mexico, joagg@ conservation.ca.gov
pumas.iingen.unam.mx; RAMIREZ-GUZMAN, L., Instituto de Ingeniería,
Mexico City, D. F., Mexico, LRamirezG@iingen.unam.mx; PRADO, L. E. A., A magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck southern Napa county northeast of San
Instituto de Ingeniería, Mexico City, D. F., Mexico, LPradoM@iingen.unam.mx Francisco, California, on Aug. 24, 2014, causing significant damage in the
city of Napa and nearby areas. One day after the earthquake, the Advanced
A temporal dense array of stations more than 2000 km away, located in Veracruz, Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) team produced and released observations of
Mexico (Gulf of Mexico) recorded the August 24th Napa event. The 21 stations coseismic ground displacement measured with continuous GPS stations of the
with 30s broadband seismometers were deployed in a regular net, based on Plate Boundary Observatory (operated by UNAVCO for the National Science
equilateral triangles with 600 m sides. Even though the stations were relatively Foundation) and the Bay Area Rapid Deformation network (operated by Berkeley
close to each other, the waveforms have noticeable differences that are unlikely Seismological Laboratory). Three days after the earthquake (Aug. 27), the Italian
to be related to the local structure, and might reflect some features related to Space Agency’s (ASI) COSMO-SkyMed§(CSK§) satellite acquired their first post-

on 09 October 2018
event data. On the same day, the ARIA team, in collaboration with ASI and Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; LUI, S. K. Y., California Institute of
University of Basilicata, produced and released a coseismic interferogram that Technology, Pasadena, CA; GRAVES, R. W., U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena,
revealed ground deformation and surface rupture. The depiction of the surface CA; HELMBERGER, D., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA
rupture – discontinuities of color fringes in the CSK§interferogram – helped
guide field geologists from the US Geological Survey and the California Geological While most tomographic images suggest little variation in the Uppermost Mantle
Survey to features that may have otherwise gone undetected. Small-scale cracks (UMM) velocity crossing the California coast, SS-S waveform modeling reveals a
were found on a runway of the Napa County Airport, as well as bridge damage relatively fast lid layer (UMM) developing westward from the San Andreas Fault.
and damaged roads. ARIA’s response to this event highlighted the importance Based on regional shear waveform modeling, Melbourne and Helmberger (2001)
of timeliness for mapping surface deformation features. ARIA’s rapid response suggests a fast lithospheric layer varying in thickness from 55 km along the coast
products were shared through Southern California Earthquake Center’s (SCEC) to 0km inland. The recent Napa Valley earthquake (Mw 6.0) and the 2014/03/10
response website and the California Earthquake Clearinghouse. Finite fault slip Mendocino earthquake (Mw 6.8), along with the expansion of Trinet array in
models constrained from CSK§interferograms and continuous GPS observations California, provide much more information about the lithospheric structure.
reveal a north-propagating rupture with well-resolved slip from 0-10.5 km depth. Processing these data with the Cut-and-Paste (CAP) methodology indicates even
We also measured along-track coseismic displacements of about -30 to 30 cm, along stronger effects which is evident in the travel-time delay spider diagrams for the
the main surface rupture, using multiple aperture interferometry. Pnl, Rayleigh and Love waves with over 10s difference from west (early) to east
(late). Most of these recordings do not rotate into P-SV vs SH systems along
Rupture History of 2014 Mw 6.1 South Napa Valley Earthquake and Its Impact the Great Circle Path (GCP). Evidence of multi-pathing is abundant as well as a
to the Practice of Ground Strong Motion Prediction strong westward deviation of Pnl arrivals from the GCP at 9.5o on average, with
JI, C., UCSB, Santa Barbara, CA, ji@geol.ucsb.edu; ARCHULETA, R. J., several outliers exhibit deviation exceeding 20o. Preliminary waveform modeling
results confirm the above results indicating that the faster and stronger Pacific
UCSB, Santa Barbara, CA, archuleta@ucsb.edu; TWARDZIK, C., UCSB, Santa
plate is controlling the deformation of local continental margin suggested by
Barbara, CA, cedrict@ucsb.edu
GPS-determined strain rates with considerable 3D structure near the southern
Preliminary analysis of the strong motion observation of the 2014 Mw 6.0 San Andreas region.
south Napa Valley earthquake highlighted the fact that relative to the NGA
ground motion prediction equation of Boore and Atkinson [2008], this event Multiple Holocene-Age Events on the Easternmost Surface Rupture of the
had high peak ground accelerations (PGAs) and peak ground velocities (PGVs) August 24, 2014 South Napa Earthquake
within the near-fault region that decayed relatively rapidly with distance. Many SEITZ, G., California Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, Gordon.
of these near-fault outliers are associated with the double pulses observed at Seitz@conservation.ca.gov; RYAN, K., Ryan Geological Consulting, Inc.,
stations south of the epicenter. Here spatiotemporal rupture history of the Napa Orinda, CA, kevin@ryangeologicalconsulting.com; ROSA, C., US Geological
earthquake is constrained using close-fault velocity records. An aggressive source Survey, Menlo Park, CA, crosa@usgs.gov
parameterization with 1372 0.4 km by 0.4 km subfaults has been adopted to
match the SH signals with frequency up to 4 Hz. The result reveals that the The 12.5 km long surface rupture of the August 24, 2014 Mw 6.0 South
Napa earthquake initiated at a depth of 9.84 km and propagated mainly to north- Napa Earthquake was unusually complex, involving surface slip on at least five
northwest and reached the surface at about 4.5-5 s. The slip mainly occurred on distinct semi-parallel fault traces distributed across a 2 km-wide zone. Similar sized
one dominant slip patch, which has a length about 12 km. But it is the rupture earthquakes generally produce surface slip on only one fault trace or no rupture
of one secondary and isolated slip patch, which has small moment magnitude of at all. Postearthquake observations of a consultant’s trench excavated across the
4.8 but high stress drop (>14 MPa), excited the second of the double pulses. easternmost 2 km long rupture trace demonstrate that prehistoric earthquakes
Our kinematic model further reveals (with limited resolution) the rupture of this have occurred on this fault trace. Along this surface trace the right lateral slip
patch has a “encircling pincer movement” kinematic pattern, similar to what was was about 6 cm, with fairly consistent 1-2 cm vertical down dropping to the east.
reported for the 1984 Mw 6.2 Morgan Hill earthquake [Beroza and Spudich, The 3 m deep exposure shows an approximately 1 m deep and 5 m wide fault
1988]. Taking such small rupture barriers into the consideration is then crucial for graben. The August 24, 2014, deformation is a difficult to observe simple crack that
developing future ground motion prediction equations, particular for the strike- extends to the surface. However, at depth the fault zone is much more extensive
slip earthquakes in Northern California. with multiple breaks, and the faulted sediments show increasing displacement with
depth. At least three paleoearthquakes were identified. C-14 and OSL dating of
Ambient Noise-Based Monitoring of Seismic Velocity Changes Associated these events is pending. Based on soil development the section is Holocene in
with The 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa Earthquake age. These observations indicate that prior fault ruptures have had larger amounts
TAIRA, T., Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, taira@ of slip and therefore reflect a much longer rupture length than what occurred in
berkeley.edu; BRENGUIER, F., Institut des Sciences de la Terre, Grenoble, 2014. One interpretation is that the 2014 deformation here, is merely the result of
France; KONG, Q., Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Berkeley, CA triggered slip from the main surface rupture 2 km to the west, whereas the greater
older deformation is the result of primary ruptures on this fault trace. This may
We perform an ambient noise-based monitoring to explore temporal variations be the case along other rupture traces and suggests that minor surface slip in an
in seismic velocity associated with the 24 August 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa individual earthquake is not representative of each fault trace’s primary earthquake
earthquake. Using MSNoise [Lecocq et al., 2014, SRL], we systematically analyze behavior. It also highlights the value of minor ruptures, often only observed as
continuous waveforms collected at 10 seismic stations that locate near the epicenter discontinuous cracks, to locate active faults. Future paleoseismic studies promise
of the 2014 South Napa earthquake to obtain the time history of velocity change to constrain the seismic hazard of the fault traces that slipped in 2014, as well as on
(dv/v). We determine the reference Green’s function (GF) for each station pair as other Quaternary faults comprising the WNFZ.
the average of 1-day stacks of GFs obtained in the time interval, January through
July 2014 and measure the delay times between 30-day stacks of GF and reference Acquisition, Management, and Mapping of Data from the August 24, 2014 M6.0
GF. Following Brenguier et al. [2008, Science], our analysis focuses on waveforms South Napa Earthquake
in the vertical at a frequency range of 0.1-0.9 Hz. Our result indicates the velocity JULIUS, A., Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Oakland, CA, alex@
reduction of about 0.06% immediately after the 2014 South Napa earthquake. By eeri.org; ORTIZ, M., Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Oakland, CA,
combining the static and dynamic stress estimates, the velocity reduction obtained
maggie@eeri.org; TREMAYNE, H., Earthquake Engineering Research Institute,
is most likely due to an increase of opening cracks by ground shaking from the Oakland, CA, heidi@eeri.org; BLAIR, J. L., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park,
2014 South Napa earthquake. Following the 2014 South Napa earthquake, the CA, lblair@usgs.gov
time evolution of dv/v shows a postseismic healing process (i.e., increase of dv/v).
This healing process, however, is interrupted about three months after the 2014 During the South Napa Earthquake, the Earthquake Engineering Research
South Napa earthquake. In other words, we observe another temporal reduction of Institute (EERI) led reconnaissance data sharing and collaboration efforts to
velocity. The onset of this velocity reduction seems to be correlated with the onset aid coordination of field investigators and share real-time observations online.
of intense rainfall. We speculate that an increase of fluid saturation by heavy rain is EERI staff at the California Clearinghouse physical location, instructed field
the primarily mechanism of this temporal velocity reduction. investigators on three data collection tools that allowed submission of geotagged
and non-geotagged photos and notes taken in the field. The tools included:
Understanding the Lithospheric Structure Beneath the California Margin The Clearinghouse Fieldnotes Application, the EERI Photo Upload Map, and
Using the Aug 24, 2014 South Napa Earthquake the EERI Batch Photo Upload Tool. Together these tools provided individuals
LAI, V. H., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, vlai@caltech.edu; methods for collecting and sharing geotagged and non-geotagged data while in the
WEI, S., Earth Observatory of Singapore, NTU, Singapore; LI, D., California field or once back in the office. Data collected from these tools were compiled

on 09 October 2018
into an online data map. Also, KMZ and KML data layers from individuals Center and other Clearinghouse partners; holding nightly briefings with field
were manually added to the map. Immediately after the earthquake, the map investigators that were accessible to remote participant; and by posting regular
served as a situational awareness tool. Based on the experience in South Napa, updates to the Virtual Earthquake Clearinghouse website. The Clearinghouse
improvements to the map and the data collection tools have refined the procedures coordination efforts resulted in two overflights and a multi-agency, state-federal,
for future data collection and visualization. Tool updates, including a new desktop cost-sharing agreement to acquire airborne LiDAR of the affected region. The
interface for Clearinghouse Fieldnotes, allow users to make corrections to data physical location remained active through August 26, 2014, during which time
submitted in the field. Standardization of symbology by discipline resulted in it drew the participation of over 100 experts from more than 40 different
clearer data visualization and increased usability. The map and data are now part organizations.
of the FEMA GeoPlatform, which increases reliability and load speed. The data
compilation map contains thousands of data points in the following categories:
aerial imagery, geologic maps, structural, transportation, geotechnical, ground Ambient Tremor Activity Triggered by the 24 August 2014, M6.0 South Napa
deformation, ground motion, instrumentation, seismology, lifelines, and social Earthquake in the Parkfield-Cholame Region of California
impacts. Going forward, the map will serve as a repository for scientific and NADEAU, R. M., University of California, Berkeley, CA, nadeau@berkeley.edu
engineering data and as a template that will streamline the visualization of data The rate of ambient tremor activity in the Parkfield-Cholame (P-C) area of
after future earthquakes. California increased by ˜10-fold beginning ˜12 hours after the Napa earthquake
and remained this elevated for ˜48 hours. Despite the ˜340km distance separating
PG&E Earthquake Response: A Case Study from the 2014 South Napa the Napa and P-C areas, this increase exceeded the tremor rate increase following
Earthquake the 2004 Parkfield M6.0 earthquake, located only ˜15 km from the tremor zone.
MADUGO, C. L., PG&E Geosciences, San Francisco, CA, c7m0@pge.com; No other comparable increases in tremor rates have been observed in the ˜9
STEINBERG, S. M., PG&E Geosciences, San Francisco, CA, S0S7@pge.com; year period between the Parkfield and Napa events. This suggests an increased
MCCLAREN, M. K., PG&E Geosciences, San Francisco, CA, mkm2@pge.com; sensitivity to external stressing in the critical P-C deep tremor zone, located
FERRE, K. S., PG&E Geosciences, San Francisco, CA, KSF1@pge.com beneath the northwest end of the locked Cholame segment of the San Andreas
Fault (SAF) that last ruptured in the 1857 Ft. Tejon M7.8 earthquake. Following a
Quickly assessing the likelihood and location of damage following an earthquake 5-day post-seismic period, the tremor rate in the P-C zone reduced to ˜2-3 times the
is essential for mounting effective post-seismic response. The PG&E Incident pre-seismic rate and remained in this range for at least 100-days (i.e., through Dec.
Command System (ICS) provides a framework for technical experts to 6, 2014; time of last analysis). Delayed dynamic triggering of deep creep (Shelly et
help coordinate and prioritize emergency response with field personnel and al., NatGeo, 2011) by the Napa event is a mechanism that could explain the delayed
communicate to upper management. Following a significant earthquake, PG&E triggering and increased rates observed. Such a mechanism would imply an ˜ 8-fold
Geosciences aggregates available data from public and internal sources to increase in inferred deep creep rate relative to pre-seismic rates during the 5-day
help the Hydro, Gas T&D, Electric T&D, Nuclear and Corporate Real post-seismic period and an ˜2-3-fold in increase in creep-rate over the subsequent
Estate (CRESS) lines of business prioritize their response. DASH (Dynamic ˜ 100 days. Though counter-intuitive, rates of seismicity overlying the tremor zone
Automated Seismic Hazard), a next-generation emergency response program, decreased ˜2-fold during the 105 day period following Napa. Such anti-correlated
provides automated reports of peak ground accelerations for a subset of assets tremor and seismicity rates have been observed before in the P-C area (i.e., for over
within minutes of an earthquake, with updated reports reviewed by Geosciences 44 tremor episodes; Guilhem et al., EPSL, 2012), and they suggest an unrecognized
personnel issued within about 60 minutes. ICS and DASH protocols successfully mechanism relating seismogenic and deeper SAF zone processes. This presentation
focused PG&E’s response to the 2014 South Napa Earthquake. Based on their will include monitoring results tracking the ongoing tremor activity up through the
proximity to the area of greatest shaking, two CRESS buildings, several electrical week prior to the SSA meeting, and it will compare this activity with the ongoing
substations, and two gas transmission lines were prioritized for inspection. Neither seismicity in the region.
building was damaged, and one substation suffered minor damage. Although
the gas transmission lines in the epicentral area were not compromised by the
earthquake, field mapping by PG&E consulting geologists revealed that the Post-Earthquake Rupture Characterization and Analysis of Pipeline
lines deformed horizontally and vertically due to movement of a strand of the Deformation near the Southern End of the 24 August 2014 West Napa Fault
West Napa fault (Lutz et al., this meeting). Detailed rupture mapping provided Rupture
input for deformation modeling to develop design criteria for replacement LUTZ, A. T., InfraTerra, Inc., San Francisco, CA, alutz@infraterra.com;
of damaged pipeline sections across the fault. Ongoing efforts to improve HITCHCOCK, C. H., InfraTerra, Inc., San Francisco, CA USA,
PG&E earthquake preparedness and response include a program to assess the chitchcock@infraterra.com; HART, J. D., SSD, Inc., Reno, NV USA,
condition and anticipated deformation for gas pipeline fault crossings and TIER1 jim.hart@ssdinc.com; WADE, A. M., Fugro Consultants, Inc., Walnut Creek,
improvements to the DASH program to integrate better with all PG&E business CA, a.wade@fugro.com
lines. We performed detailed mapping along 1.3 km of surface rupture between
Cuttings Wharf and CA-12 to characterize the location, width, orientation,
California Earthquake Clearinghouse Activation for August 24, 2014, M6.0 amount, direction, and kinematics of permanent ground deformation produced
South Napa Earthquake in the hours, days, and weeks following the 24 August 2014 M6.0 South Napa
ROSINSKI, A., California Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, Anne. earthquake. These data were important inputs to emergency repair design of
Rosinski@conservation.ca.gov; ORTIZ, M., Earthquake Engineering Research two large diameter steel pipelines crossed by the surface rupture. Surface rupture
Institute, Oakland, CA, maggie@eeri.org; TREMAYNE, H., Earthquake near Los Carneros Avenue produced multiple right-stepping, 337◦ -striking
Engineering Research Institue, Oakland, CA intervals roughly 2 to 6 m wide and 30 to 60 m long. The dextral component
of displacement produced localized transpressional strain and formed narrow
Shortly after 3:20 a.m., on August 24, 2014, the California Earthquake pressure ridges 15 to 20 cm high and 0.5 to 1.5 m wide. Each of these right-
Clearinghouse managing partners: the California Geological Survey, the stepping reaches were composed of smaller-scale (0.3 to 8 m long) left-stepping
Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, USGS, the California Office of en echelon fractures striking 355◦ to 030◦ . In addition to pressure ridges the
Emergency Services, and the California Seismic Safety Commission, officially deformation field exhibited a broad, west-up sense of vertical displacement.
authorized activation of a virtual Clearinghouse and a physical Clearinghouse The average direction of dextral displacement was 330◦ ± 5◦ along this reach.
location. The Clearinghouse’s principal function is to provide State and Federal Deformation analysis of a large-diameter steel pipeline indicates that 30.5 cm
disaster response managers and the scientific and engineering communities with of dextral displacement was accommodated within a 7.5-m-wide zone over
prompt information on ground failure, structural damage, and other consequences five days. Surface rupture near Los Carneros Creek was expressed as a series of
after a significant seismic event. Within eight hours of the earthquake, the physical left-stepping, N20◦ W-striking intervals roughly 1.5 to 4 m wide and 40 to 70 m
Clearinghouse location near downtown Napa was operational. The California long. Each interval was composed of smaller-scale (4 to 6 m long) left-stepping
Geological Survey, which serves as the permanent, lead coordination organization en echelon fractures striking 000◦ to 015◦ . Multiple measurements indicate
for the Clearinghouse, coordinated with the State to acquire all resources required a gradual southward decrease in the amount of dextral surface displacement
for the Clearinghouse activation. The Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, from about 12 ± 2 cm near Las Amigas Road to about 7.5 ± 1.5 cm near Los
which serves as Vice-Chair of the Clearinghouse, staffed the Clearinghouse Carneros Creek by early October. The average direction of dextral displacement
physical location, facilitated individual and team field investigations, and was 325◦ ± 5◦ along this reach. Deformation analysis a large-diameter steel
maintained the Virtual Clearinghouse website. Throughout the activation, pipeline indicates that 19.5 cm of dextral displacement and 4 cm of west-down
the Clearinghouse led coordination efforts among organizations, teams and vertical displacement were accommodated within an 8-m-wide zone over
individuals by conducting three briefing calls each day with the State Operations 57 days.

on 09 October 2018
Shallow Geophysical Investigations following the South Napa Earthquake Angeles, CA, benzion@usc.edu; ROSS, Z. E., University of Southern California,
TURNER, J., Fugro Consultants, Lakewood, CO, j.turner@fugro.com; Los Angeles, CA, zross@usc.edu; SHARE, P. E., University of Southern
TRENCH, D., Fugro Consultants, Walnut Creek, CA, d.trench@fugro.com; California, Los Angeles, CA, pshare@usc.edu; VERNON, F., University of
PROTTI, B., Fugro Consultants, Lakewood, CO, b.protti@fugro.com; California, La Jolla, CA, vernon@epicenter.ucsd.edu
BROSSY, C., Fugro Consultants, Walnut Creek, CA, c.brossy@fugro.com;
MAYO, Z., Fugro Consultants, Walnut Creek, CA, z.mayo@fugro.com We analyze seismograms recorded in the San Jacinto Fault Zone at Jackass Flat
(JF), southeast of the trifurcation area, by a dense linear array crossing the fault
In response to the M 6.0, 24 August 2014 South Napa Earthquake, California, (SW to NE) with ˜20-30 m spacing between instruments. Data of M > 1.0
shallow shear wave (Vs) IMASW data and acoustic wave (Vp) 2D tomography events recorded in 2012-2014 are used to search for fault zone head and trapped
data were acquired at nearby seismic stations and locations with mapped waves. Time delays between phases generated by 2400 earthquakes are utilized to
surface rupture. Vs data will be used to develop 1D depth-averaged 30 meter estimate velocity variations across the array. We use automatic P picks for each
(Vs30) measurements and 0.5m resolution Vs-depth profiles for each alignment. source-receiver pair to calculate the ratio of each station pick to the array-wide
These site-specific Vs data provide constraints on recorded ground motions and average pick. Statistical analysis of all data indicates an initial increase followed
calibration of ground conditions at seismic instrumentation sites in support of by flattening and then decrease of relative slowness from SW to NE. The results
California’s statewide compilation of Vs30 data for mapped geologic units. These suggest that all stations of the JF array are inside the fault damage zone. We
data could be used to improve attenuation relationships for this region. 2D perform systematic search for fault zone head waves using automatic detection
Vp tomography data provide a high-resolution subsurface map of Vp structure algorithm and visual inspection. A cluster of events shows a clear moveout between
along each 92 meter alignment, and can be used to map the depth to water head and direct P waves within the JF array with increasing moveout from SW
table and identify subsurface faulting based on juxtaposed velocity structure. Vs- to NE. However, data generated by different events and observed at a given
based NEHRP site classification criteria combined with Vp constraints on water station show no moveout with increasing source-receiver distance, implying that
table depth provide inputs to inform liquefaction susceptibility mapping. For this the head waves are generated by a local interface (perhaps edge of the damage
investigation, Vs and Vp data were acquired at Green Valley (ID NGVB), Huichica zone or basin) rather than a deep fault interface. Fault zone trapped waves are
Creek (NHC), and No. 3 Napa Fire Station (ID 1765) seismic monitoring identified with automatic detection scheme and visual inspection. The generating
stations. The Green Valley Road site provides a Vs30 measurement of the Sonoma events have broad spatial distribution, implying a relatively shallow trapping
Volcanics, a widespread volcanic unit in the North Bay area, which is identified structure. The trapped waves are observed clearly only by a few stations on the
by the CGS as a key data gap in the statewide geologic unit-Vs30 dataset. Data SW part of the array where the relative slowness is near maximum. Sets of
were acquired with 4 m spacing using a 24-channel acquisition unit, 4.5 Hz waveforms recorded across the entire array, with candidate-trapped waves at the
geophones, with a hammer and strike plate active source. Data processing is SW stations, are inverted with a genetic algorithm for fault zone parameters.
currently in progress; Vs processing is being completed using the IMASW approach The results indicate a trapping structure with depth of 4-5 km, width of 100-
(O’Connell and Turner, 2011), and Rayfract software for the Vp 2D tomography 200 m, Q value of 10-20, and velocity reduction of 40-50% from the host
processing. Preliminary results show Vs-depth is well-constrained to 60 m at the rock.
Fire Station Site, to 100 m at Huichica Creek, and 50-100 m at Green Valley.
Virtual California, Etas, and Openhazards Web Services: Responding to Imaging the Shallow Structure of the San Jacinto Fault Zone with High
Earthquakes in the Age of Big Data Frequency Noise
YODER, M. R., University of California, Davis, CA, mark.yoder@gmail.com; ZIGONE, D., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, zigone@
SCHULTZ, K. W., University of California, Davis, CA; HEIEN, E. usc.edu; BEN-ZION, Y., University of Southern California, Los Angeles,
M., University of California, Davis, CA; RUNDLE, J. B., University of CA, benzion@usc.edu; CAMPILLO, M., Institut des Sciences de la Terre,
California, Davis, CA; TURCOTTE, D. L., University of California, Davis, Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble, France, michel.campillo@ujf-grenoble.fr;
CA; GLASSCOE, M. T., NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA; HILLERS, G., Institut des Sciences de la Terre, Université Joseph Fourier,
DONNELLAN, A., NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA Grenoble, France, gregor.hillers@ujf-grenoble.fr; ROUX, P., Institut des Sciences
de la Terre, Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble, France, philippe.roux@ujf-
The age of “Big Data” is upon us. The response to the 2014 m=6 Napa earthquake grenoble.fr; VERNON, F., Scripps Institute of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA,
showcased new data driven services and technologies that aided first responders flvernon@ucsd.edu
and decision makers to quickly assess damage, estimate aftershock hazard, and
efficiently allocate resources where where they were most needed. These tools Recent tomography studies using local earthquakes and up to 1 Hz seismic noise
have been developed from fundamental research as part of a broad collaboration – provided detailed images of the region around the San Jacinto Fault Zone (SJFZ),
facilitated in no small party by the California Earthquake Clearinghouse, between with nominal horizontal resolution of 1-2 km over the depth interval 0.5-15 km
researchers, policy makers, and executive decision makers and practiced and honed (Allam & Ben-Zion 2012; Allam et al. 2014; Zigone et al. 2015). To obtain
during numerous disaster response exercises over the past several years. On 24 high resolution information on local structures at the shallower crust, we cross
August 2014, and the weeks following the m=6 Napa event, it became evident correlate ambient seismic noise between 10 Hz and 70 Hz recorded by several
that these technologies will play an important role in the response to natural linear arrays across the SJFZ with typical inter-station distances in the range 25-
(and other) disasters in the 21st century. Given the continued rapid growth 50 m. Pre-processing involving earthquakes removal and whitening on 15 minutes
of computational capabilities, remote sensing technologies, and data gathering time windows is followed by calculations of 9-component correlation tensors for
capacities – including by unpiloted aerial vehicles (UAVs), it is reasonable to expect all station pairs. The obtained cross correlations exhibit coherent waves up to 30-
that both the volume and variety of data available during a response scenario will 40 Hz that travel between the station pairs. Polarization and dispersion analyses
grow significantly in the decades to come. Inevitably, modern Data Science will be show that both body and surface waves are reconstructed, with average Rayleigh
critical to effective disaster response in the 21st century. In this work, we discuss the group velocity around 450 m/s. After rejecting paths without sufficient signal to
roles that earthquake simulators, statistical seismicity models, and remote sensing noise ratios, we invert the Rayleigh group velocity measurements using the Barmin
technologies played in the the 2014 Napa earthquake response. We further discuss et al. (2001) approach on a 20 m grid size. The obtained maps reveal low velocity
“Big Data” technologies and data models that facilitate the transformation of raw damage zones near the surface fault traces, with variations along strike reflecting
data into disseminable information and actionable products, and we outline a various faulting behavior in different branches of the SJFZ. Three-dimensional
framework for the next generation of disaster response data infrastructure. images of shear wave speeds, derived with the inversion method of Hermann &
Ammon (2002), show local flower-type damage structures in the top 200 m. The
imaged Vs values at 30 m depths are around 250-300 m/s in agreement with
Using Dense Seismic Array to Image the Subsurface and available Vs30 results. Additional work is in progress using ambient noise up
to 200 Hz recorded by a dense rectangular array with 1108 vertical-component
Monitor Earthquake Activity seismometers separated by 10-30 m. Updated results will be presented in the
Poster Session · Tuesday · 21 April · Exhibit Hall A meeting.
Internal Structure of the San Jacinto Fault Zone at Jackass Flat from Inversion of Inter-Station Attenuation from Ambient Seismic Noise Recorded
Earthquake Data Recorded by a Dense Linear Array by a Linear Array
QIU, H., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, LIU, X., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, liuxine@
hongruiq@usc.edu; BEN-ZION, Y., University of Southern California, Los icloud.com; BEN-ZION, Y., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA,

on 09 October 2018
benzion@usc.edu; ZIGONE, D., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, fault zone using data generated by about 30 "Betsy" gun shots and recorded by a
CA, zigone@usc.edu highly-dense rectangular array with 1108 vertical-component nodes (instrument
spacing 10-30 m) centered on the Clark branch of the fault zone south of Anza.
We study inter-station seismic attenuation from ambient noise cross-correlation We estimate Q-values in different paths between the shots and stations using
functions between stations of linear arrays. Based on theoretical derivations the following steps: (i) obtaining an average body-wave velocity near each shot
on amplitude decay of ensemble-averaged cross-correlation due to attenuation, by fitting a line to auto-picked first arrivals at the stations within 200 m, (ii)
we measure amplitude information from either the causal or anti-causal part determining the median energy of each body-wave arrival at each station within
of cross-correlation within a narrow frequency band. Taking the difference of 0.2 sec after the calculated arrival time, (iii) fitting first an inverse square function
the logarithmic amplitude decay curves, we form linear least-square inversions for geometrical spreading and then an exponential decay function for attenuation
for inter-station Q values applied to triplet of stations in linear arrays. The to the median energy distribution as a function of distance from the shot (iv)
background attenuation between the noise sources and receivers can be effectively using the parameters obtained from the fit at (iii), velocities obtained from (i)
canceled with this method, and the site amplification factor is approximated and peak dominant frequencies calculated for each window at each station to
as constant in a narrow frequency band of interest. The noise wave field is calculate a Q value for each station within 200 meters of the shot for each shot.
assumed stationary, such that the amplitude decay curves do not vary greatly at The initial results of stacked Q values from all the shots are in the range of 2-
different times. The inter-station distances should be greater than the wavelength. 12. Updated Q values for the shallow fault zone material will be presented in the
The inversion scheme to retrieve attenuation and phase velocity dispersion meeting.
curves is validated with synthetic cross-correlations computed using ambient
noise generated by ray-theory-based calculations with heterogeneous attenuation
Imaging Results from Dense Seismic Array on the San Jacinto Fault Zone
and homogenous velocity structure. The method is then applied to triplets
Generated By Besty Gun Shots
of stations from a dense linear array and regional stations in the San Jacinto
MENG, H., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, haoranme@
Fault zone region. The results indicate Q values in the ranges 6-12 and 20-
usc.edu; BEN-ZION, Y., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA,
200 within and outside the immediate vicinity of the San Jacinto Fault zone,
ybz@usc.edu
respectively.
We analyzed the records of a dense seismic array on the San Jacinto fault zone
Fault Zone Trapped Noise and Fault Zone Reverberations from Cross- generated by 33 besty gun shots to study the near surface structure. Clearly fault
Correlations of Seismic Noise and Earthquake Waveforms zone trapped wave have been observed from the records which indicate a linear
HILLERS, G., Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble, France, gregor.hillers@ujf- damage zone with around 200 m width. Additionally, the preliminary results
grenoble.fr; CAMPILLO, M., Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble, France, indicate considerable velocity contrast between inside and outside area of the
michel.campillo@ujf-grenoble.fr; BEN-ZION, Y., University of Southern damage zone.
California, Los Angeles, CA, benzion@usc.edu; ROUX, P., Université Joseph
Fourier, Grenoble, France, philippe.roux@ujf-grenoble.fr; LECOINTRE, Natural Migration of Back-scattered Surface Waves Using Ambient-Noise
A., Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble, France, albanne.lecointre@ujf- Cross-correlations: Long Beach Dense Array and USArray Examples
grenoble.fr; VERNON, F. L., Scripps Institute of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, ALTHEYAB, A., King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Saudi
flvernon@ucsd.edu Arabia, abdullah.altheyab@kaust.edu.sa; WORKMAN, E., University of Utah,
Salt Lake City, Utah, workman.eli@gmail.com; LIN, F. C., University
We analyze cross-correlation functions constructed from data recorded by a of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, u0919412@utah.edu; SCHUSTER, G.
dense linear array consisting of three-component stations crossing the Calico T., King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Saudi Arabia,
fault located in the eastern California shear zone. Fault zone trapped noise gerard.schuster@kaust.edu.sa
is inferred from symmetry and coherency properties of noise correlations that
differ systematically between stations located within and outside the 1-2 km Empirical Greens functions computed from the stacking of correlated ambient
wide trapping structure associated with the low velocity damage zone. Small noise traces contain both direct and back-scattered surface-waves, where the latter
station spacing (50 m) facilitates the reconstruction of a near-field focal spot can be migrated to image sharp velocity contrasts at and below the recording
from the collapsing, isotropic in-fault surface-wavefield. Application of different array. Traditional migration approaches use approximate Green’s functions that
temporal normalization techniques (1-bit vs. std-clipping) prior to correlation are numerically computed from prior knowledge of the background medium
enhances significant fault zone reverberations. These are strong, coherent arrivals and the simplified physics of wave propagation. Such approaches often fail with
that emerge in the correlation coda between in-fault stations as a result of back-scattered surface-waves due to the inaccurate reconstruction of the actual
multiple reflections within the trapping low velocity zone. Importantly, stacks Green’s functions. With passive seismic data recorded on a dense recording
of correlation functions constructed from 25 regional earthquake waveforms array, the virtual Green’s function at each station can be computed and used as
exhibit the exact same features, suggesting fault zone reverberations are excited the traditional migration kernel instead of the numerically computed Green’s
by both the background noise field and transient scattered earthquake waves. function. Therefore, no prior knowledge of the medium is required and no crude
We extend our analysis to noise data collected by a highly-dense Nodal array approximations (e.g. the Born approximation) are needed. This imaging approach
with 1108 geophones centered on the San Jacinto fault zone south of Anza. We is referred to as natural migration. Here, we present the result of natural migration
quantify waveform similarity of noise correlation surface wave arrivals. Application for passive data recorded by the dense Long Beach array and the USArray.
of several spectral and time domain measurements yield similarity estimates of The migration images highlight known discontinuities from tomography and
windowed arrivals at negative and positive correlation lag times, which allow correlate well with some of the prominent geological boundaries at two different
conclusions on distributions of noise propagation directions and hence potential scales: (1) the tectonic scale such as the edge of the Atlantic Plain Province in
trapping structures. The resulting spatial distributions are expected to yield southeastern US and (2) the regional scale structure under Long Beach, California.
images of wavefield coherency zones—indicating regions over which propagation The migration images provide complementary information to the surface-wave
directions are near-isotropic, or zones over which coherency is low, which would tomographic images and can be used to refine the tomographic models.
be indicative of reflecting boundaries. Updated results will be presented in the
meeting. Automatic Anthropogenic Transient Classification using Clustering
Techniques
Attenuation Properties of the Shallow San Jacinto Fault Zone From Data of RIAHI, N., UC San Diego, La Jolla, CA, nriahi@ucsd.edu; GERSTOFT, P., UC
Highly-Dense Seismic Array San Diego, La Jolla, CA, pgerstoft@ucsd.edu
OZAKIN, Y., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA,
ozakin@usc.edu; BEN-ZION, Y., University of Southern California, Los Most of the geophones in the Long Beach seismic array are located in the immediate
Angeles, CA, benzion@usc.edu; SHARE, P. E., University of Southern vicinity of a road: besides being a seismic exploration dataset the array is therefore
California, Los Angeles, CA, pshare@usc.edu; ZIGONE, D., University of also a large seismic traffic data repository. What traffic information can be obtained
Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, zigone@usc.edu; ROSS, Z., University of from vibrations recorded near the curb? The transient seismic waveforms caused by
Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, zross@usc.edu; VERNON, F., University passing vehicles are shaped by many (unknown) factors: vehicle type and trajectory,
of California San Diego, San Diego, CA, flvernon@uscd.edu road surface, road bed structure, and near-surface medium properties. When
studying recordings from a fixed location, however, vehicle type and trajectory
Seismic energy decays during propagation exponentially with coefficients given become the main variable factors. We hypothesize that similarity in seismic
by Q-values that characterize the structure and provide limits to the recorded responses will be associated with similarity in vehicle type and trajectory and
information. Here we derive Q-values for the shallow material in the San Jacinto therefore study the issue of clustering analysis of anthropogenic seismic transients.

on 09 October 2018
We first select the transients using an STA/LTA detector applied to seismic power Function reflection component. For this purpose, we have updated an existing,
time series and the perform the cluster analysis on feature vectors derived from comprehensive seismic database in the Sierra Nevada area, including P/S seismic
the frequency-time signature of these transients. We discuss the aspects of feature velocity models and receiver functions, from publicly available information. We
selection, data reduction, and choice of clustering algorithm in the context of urban report results from application of ambient-seismic noise autocorrelations to
seismic data. available sensors in the study area, along previous COCORP transects, with the
purpose to identify, extract and analyze the P/S reflection component of the
Teleseismic P-Waves Across the Long Beach Array As Seen Through the Eyes Green’s Functions and to compare the results to previous analyses. We estimate
of Wave-Gradiometry to the first order new crustal models using waveform modeling; and future
BOCKHOLT, B. M., Center for Earthquake Research and Information, work includes statistical comparison with receiver function and other model
Memphis, TN, bbckholt@memphis.edu; YANG, Y., Center for Earthquake estimates.
Research and Information, Memphis, TN, yyang14@memphis.edu;
LANGSTON, C. A., Center for Earthquake Research and Information, CSN - Community Seismic Network
Memphis, TN, clanstn@memphis.edu CLAYTON, R., Caltech, Pasadena, CA, clay@gps.caltech.edu; KOHLER,
Wave-gradiometry (WG) relates the spatial gradient of the displacement to the M., Caltech, Pasadena, CA, kohler@caltech.edu; MASSARI, A.,
Caltech, Pasadena, CA, amassari@caltech.edu; GUY, R., Caltech,
displacement of the wavefield via two coefficients. These two coefficients produce
four parameters which have been titled the WG parameters. This array processing Pasadena, CA, rguy@gps.caltech.edu; HEATON, T., Caltech, Pasadena,
technique requires high spatial sampling to properly and accurately calculate the CA, heaton@caltech.edu; CHANDY, M., Caltech, Pasadena, CA,
spatial gradient. The 5200 element Long Beach Array is ideal for this technique kmchandy@gmail.com; BUNN, J., Caltech, Pasadena, CA, Julian.Bunn@
and fortuitously recorded a number of teleseismic events, including the MW 9.0 caltech.edu; COCHRAN, E., USGS, Pasadena, CA, ecochran@usgs.gov
Tohoku earthquake of 2011. We investigate different ways of calculating the The CSN has now expanded to 500 stations in the Los Angeles region. The goal
spatial gradient based on a Taylor Series expansion of the spatial derivative and of the network is to produce a map of strong shaking immediately following a
show that a third order Taylor Series expansion is both stable and accurate. Using a major earthquake as a proxy for damage and a guide for first responders. We are
small subset of stations from the Long Beach array, we show that the calculated also conducting research on the state of health of buildings following a major
azimuth and slowness are in good agreement with the great circle azimuth and earthquake. We have densely instrumented a number of buildings, including a 52-
estimated slowness for teleseismic P-waves seen across the array. We than calculate story office structure in downtown Los Angeles, with at least one three-component
the WG parameters for 4 different teleseismic events using each element of the sensor per floor. We have also started a pilot project to expand spatial coverage
Long Beach array as a center station. This produces measurements of the four of the network by placing sensors in 30 out of 1200 campuses of the Los Angeles
WG parameters as a function of time and position. Viewing the parameters Unified School District. In addition, we are placing 110 sensors in free-field and
as a time-lapse image shows interesting wave propagation effects. In particular, building locations on the 1 km-square area of Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). The
a large scattering event, which can be clearly seen in the wavefield, is seen as JPL project will serve as a model of an instrumented city as well as function as one
an abrupt change in the slowness and azimuth implying a change in the soure component of an array of dense arrays. The CSN utilizes a number of technologies
location and speed of the wave. We present these results and preliminary results that will likely be important in building robust low-cost networks. These include:
from other large arrays such as the Sweetwater array and the US Transportable Distributed computing – the sensors themselves are smart-sensors that perform
Array. the basic detection and size estimation in the onboard computers and send the
results immediately (without packetization latency) to the central facility. Cloud
Seismic-Wave Gradiometry with a Dense Array in Belmont County, Ohio computing – the central facility is housed in the cloud, which means it is more
BARKER, L., University of Memphis, Houston, TX, labarker@hess.com; robust than a local site, and has expandable computing resources available so that
LANGSTON, C. A., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, clangstn@ it can operate with minimal resources during quiet times but still be able to exploit
memphis.edu a very large computing facility during an earthquake. Low-cost/low-maintenance
sensors – the MEMS sensors are capable of staying onscale to +/- 2g, and can
Data from a dense, 376-station array in Belmont County, Ohio was analyzed measure events in the Los Angeles Basin as low as magnitude 3 at a distance of
with seismic-wave gradiometry to examine how two of the wave parameters, phase 100 km. CSN and the Quake Catcher Network (QCN) are now in the process of
slowness and propagation azimuth, varied with position in the array. The sources integrating data their data streams.
were 1-kg dynamite shots at varying azimuths around the array. We analyzed
29 of those shots in this study. In addition to the typical wave gradiometry
procedure, we introduce an amplitude correction, cell creation method, reducing Automatic Processing of Continuous Data in Active Seismic Region
slowness, and a unique look at the wave parameters by presenting a plot of WU, F. T., SUNY Binghamton/USC, Binghamton, NY, wu@binghamton.edu;
slowness-azimuth vectors. The resulting wave parameters of phase slowness and ROSS, Z., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, zross@usc.edu;
propagation azimuth are not consistent for unmoved stations when comparing OKAYA, D., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA,
shots of varying azimuths, but the parameters are relatively similar for similar- okaya@usc.edu; LIANG, W. T., Inst of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica,
azimuth shots indicating that there is a great deal of scattering going on. The Nankang, Taiwan, wtl@earth.sinica.edu.tw; KUO-CHEN, H., National
array was in a heavily coal mined region which created a lot of small-scale velocity Central University, Chungli, Taiwan, kuochen@ncu.edu.tw
heterogeneity which affected the waves. Wave gradiometry results are compared
against frequency-wavenumber results for the top and bottom halves of the array Dense station coverage and abundant seismicity are highly desirable in studying
as well as the whole array and we show that the two processing techniques produce active tectonics. The massive data processing necessary is labor intensive, however,
comparable answers. This also indicates that the large variation in parameters is and the picking of S arrivals can be difficult and inconsistent. Recently developed
not a processing artifact of gradiometry but rather a consequence of a complicated methodologies in auto-picking of both P and S waves the task allow for this process
wavefield. to be handled efficiently. During the TAIGER experiment in and around Taiwan,
we have deployed a land-based “onshore/offshore” network whose primary purpose
was to record airguns from R/V Langseth. With the recorders in continuous mode
Crust-Mantle Boundary Depth in the Sierra Nevada from Autocorrelations of the network obtained a large number of earthquake seismograms. The network
Seismic Noise contains 295 stations along three nearly E-W transects at 2 km interval and two
RAMOS, M., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, marlonramosjr@hotmail.com; island-parallel lines at about 5 km interval; they recorded for about three months,
TIBULEAC, I. M., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, imtseismic@yahoo.com; from March to June, 2009. Combining Antelope’s automatic event association
VON SEGGERN, D., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, vonseg1@sbcglobal.net with our recently developed P and S polarization pickers, more than 8000 events
were initially identified and located. Small (M1) events clustering near the linear
The goal of this project is to apply a new method for crust-mantle boundary arrays and a few significant groups of epicenters, in areas of little known seismicity,
analysis, which, in contrast to receiver functions, does not depend on large were found. We relocated all events with hypoDD and found that many of the
recorded seismic events. Also, in contrast to current reflection/refraction seismic linear features determined in previous research using multi-year Central Weather
studies, the new method is applied locally at all available seismic sensors, providing Bureau catalogs are identified in our results. Some of the features have not been
unprecedented resolution. We aim to estimate and interpret new, independent previously observed. Among these is a well-defined narrow vertical zone parallel to
depth models of the crust – mantle boundary (Moho discontinuity) across the the structural trend between the western and eastern Central Range. Such a zone
Sierra Nevada, through analysis of the body wave component (P and S) of Green’s is important in the understanding of Taiwan orogeny. The additional 50,000+ S
Functions extracted from ambient noise autocorrelations. We use ambient- picks available from this work will enhance the Vp/Vs tomography of the Central
noise seismic interferometry to extract the crust-mantle boundary Green’s Range.

on 09 October 2018
Earthquake Rupture and Hidden Events Detection for the 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique ZHANG, W., University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China,
Earthquake zhangwei.zw@gmail.com
LI, B., University of California, Riverside, CA, bli017@ucr.edu; GHOSH, A.,
University of California, Riverside, CA, abhijit.ghosh@ucr.edu Receiver functions are routinely used in common conversion point stacking to
image the earth structure under the assumption that interfaces are smooth and sub-
The earthquake rupture process is fundamental for our understanding of fault horizontal. This assumption breaks down in places with dipping, discontinuous
systems and earthquake hazards. It can provide us information about the source or scattering structures. With dense 2D seismic arrays and 3-component seismic
properties, rupture directivity, earth structures, aftershocks, disaster assessment, records, it is possible to overcome the limitations of traditional receiver function
risk mitigation, etc. We apply back-projection technique using US Array to image imaging with reverse time migration of earthquake body waves. In this study, we
the rupture of the 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique earthquake and analyze foreshock and develop a 3D passive source reverse time migration method based on the study of a
aftershock activities. The earthquake rupture propagated slightly to the southeast 2D case by Shang et al. (2012). Pseudo stations are constructed by interpolating
of the epicenter at the beginning of the event and then propagated backwards, the wavefield at the sparse and uneven seismic stations on to regular grids.
towards the epicenter (opposite the initial rupture direction). After that, the The 3-component seismic records on the surface are back propagated through a
rupture direction changed to the northeast and finally moved to the northwest. reference velocity model by solving the elastic wave equation with a finite difference
Following the nucleation of the mainshock, seismic energy radiation began to method. Then the receiver wavefield is projected into the P- and S-wavefields
increase and reached a peak around 30s before it started to decrease. Two and the correlations of the two wavefields are stacked to generate the image of
energy peaks appeared around 90s since the mainshock initiation, which indicated velocity discontinuity interfaces and scatters. Combining the images generated
the occurrence of a different earthquake (aftershock) to the northeast of the with different sources suppresses random and artificial noise and enhances the
mainshock. The ability to differentiate between multiple earthquakes occurring converted wave signal. Various synthetic models are used and the results show
relatively close in time shows that back-projection can be used to detect early that the reverse time migration method has advantages in imaging steeply dipping
aftershocks, which usually remain undetected by the arrival of various seismic structures such as subducting slabs and upwelling mantle plumes, and is applicable
phases immediately following giant earthquakes. We extended our detection without knowledge of the earthquake source mechanism.
period to few days both before and after the mainshock. Most of the earthquakes
in the current global earthquake catalogue are detected. Additionally, dozens of An Effective Medium Theory for Three-Dimensional Elastic Heterogeneities
hidden foreshocks and hundreds of hidden aftershocks that are not recorded JORDAN, T. H., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, tjordan@
in the catalog were also recorded. It greatly improves the completeness of the
usc.edu; SONG, X., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA,
current catalog and enables us to better study stress dynamics and earthquake
xinsong@usc.edu
characteristics. It also provides a way to detect, locate and study earthquakes in the
region where only limited seismic station coverage is available. We use the Born approximation to develop a self-consistent theory for the
effective elastic parameters of a stochastic medium with a three-dimensional
(3D) distribution of small-scale heterogeneities. The theory is accurate to second
order in the elasticity fluctuations, which we represent by a spatially stationary
Seismic Imaging and Monitoring of Near-surface, Crustal autocovariance function. We derive closed-form expressions of the effective
and Global Scales: Recent Advances and Future Directions elasticity tensor for a class of stochastic models in which the heterogeneity is
Oral Session · Wednesday · 8:30 AM · 22 April · Ballroom B transversely isotropic and its second moments are characterized by a scale-invariant
horizontal-to-vertical aspect ratio η. Where medium is locally isotropic, the
Session Chairs: Marco Pilz and Nori Nakata expressions for the anisotropic effective moduli in the limit η→∞ reduce to
Backus’s (1962) second-order expressions for a 1D stochastic laminate; in the
Regionalization Based on Receiver Functions isotropic limit η → 1, they provide a second-order description of the (isotropic)
LARMAT, C. S., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, moduli reduction due to wave scattering. For nearly Gaussian media, the effective
carene@lanl.gov; MACEIRA, M., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los anisotropy is well predicted by the second-order theory for root-mean-square
Alamos, NM, mmaceira@lanl.gov; ROMANOWICZ, B., University of fluctuations in the moduli as large as 40%. We also formulate a model where
California, Berkeley, CA; CHAI, C., The Pennsylvania State University, the elastic properties are locally anisotropic with hexagonal symmetry, specified
University Park, PA, cxc754@psu.edu; AMMON, C. J., The Pennsylvania State by a stochastic vector field that is transversely isotropic and has a scale-invariant
University, University Park, PA, cja12@psu.edu; HE, R., Institute of Geology, horizontal-to-vertical orientation ratio ξ. If ξ<1, the distribution of the symmetry
Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, China; ZHANG, H., University axes is vertically biased (bipolar distribution); if ξ>1, it is horizontally biased
of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China, hzhang.ustc@gmail.com (girdle distribution). The self-consistent theory provides closed-form expressions
for the dependence of the effective moduli on 0=ξ<∞ and 0=η<∞. These
Regionalization is classically performed through the identification of tectonic formulae show that, in the long-wavelength limit, the scattering from anisotropic
or structural elements. Lekic & Romanowicz (2011) proposed a new approach heterogeneity can substantially increase the effective anisotropy above the Voigt
based on geophysical information in which regionalization is performed through a average. We briefly explore the implications of the theory for the interpretation of
cluster analysis of tomographic velocity models instead. Here, we present a similar seismic data on crustal and mantle structure.
clustering analysis for regionalization but based on P-wave receiver-functions.
Clustering results of receiver functions display a high degree of dispersion,
Full-3D Tomography of Crustal Structure in Central California
requiring us to explore other metrics than L2 as measure of distance and
LEE, E. J., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, rickli92@
resampling of the time-series. Coherence and association with known tectonic and
physiographic features and/or established geophysical information is tested for the gmail.com; JORDAN, T. H., University of Southern California, Los Angeles,
two regions studied. We first focus on western US where several datasets of receiver CA, tjordan@usc.edu; CHEN, P., University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY,
functions were available to us allowing the validation of our clustering technique. pochengeophysics@gmail.com; MAECHLING, P. J., University of Southern
A first set of 483 time series was built by stacking EARS receiver functions for California, Los Angeles, CA, maechlin@usc.edu; BOUÉ, P., Stanford University,
each available station across all azimuths and with a Gaussian filter width of 2.5 Stanford, CA, pboue@stanford.edu; DENOLLE, M., University of California
Hz and small ray parameters (0.038 to 0.05 s/km). The second dataset was built , San Diego, CA, mdenolle@ucsd.edu; BEROZA, G. C., Stanford University,
by interpolation of the receiver function wavefield (Chai et al, GRL, in review). It Stanford, CA, beroza@stanford.edu; EYMOLD, W. K., University of Southern
consists of 6 sets of receiver functions per station (2 Gaussian widths and 3 ray- California, Los Angeles, CA, eymold@usc.edu
parameter bins). The agreement with geological and tectonic regions of western Recent results for Southern California have demonstrated the efficacy of full-
US is better for the second dataset. China remarkable instrumentation efforts 3D tomography (F3DT) in providing high-resolution models of crustal structure
open the door to high-resolution tomography studies at the continental scale. Our needed for more reliable seismic hazard analysis (Lee et al., JGR, 119, 6421).
collaborators at China provided us with teleseismic P-wave receiver functions for Here we report on the extension of our F3DT modeling into Central California.
785 stations. Preliminary clustering results are encouraging, and we will show our A starting model was constructed by combining the most recent Southern
first attempts of regionalization based on this information. California F3DT model, CVM-S4.26, with a 3D velocity model of Northern
California obtained by embedding the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Bay Area
Receiver Wavefield Imaging by 3D Reverse Time Migration of Earthquake Velocity Model Version 08.3.0 into Lin et al.’s (2010) California statewide
Body Waves seismic velocity model. Our F3DT procedure iteratively uses Cui et al.’s (2010)
LI, J., University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI, jiahang_li@my.uri.edu; highly optimized staggered-grid finite-difference code, AWP-ODC, to simulate
SHEN, Y., University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI, yshen@gso.uri.edu; seismic wave propagation through 3D structures, frequency-dependent phase

on 09 October 2018
misfit measurements to capture the waveform differences between observed and Los Alamos, NM, dand@lanl.gov; PHILLIPS, W. S., Los Alamos National
synthetic waveforms, the scattering integral (SI) method to calculate the Fréchet Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, wsp@lanl.gov; MYERS, S. C., Lawrence Livermore
sensitivity kernels, and a highly optimized LSQR algorithm to solve the linear National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, myers30@llnl.gov; BALLARD, S., Sandia
system. Our initial inversions have been applied to Rayleigh wave data from the National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, sballar@sandia.gov
vertical-component ambient-field correlagrams among more than 200 permanent
and temporary stations in the Northern and Southern California, and we are in The Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) tomography model has been developed
the process of incorporating earthquake waveform data as well as more ambient- to improve regional travel time phase predictions (Pn, Sn, Pg, Lg) in order to
field data into the inversions. The first two F3DT iterations reduced the variance increase seismic location accuracy and precision even when regional and teleseismic
of phase delay measurements by over 30% relative to the starting model, and the data are combined. Travel time uncertainty estimates for RSTT are determined
changes in both vp and vs, which are perturbed independently, have begun to using phase-specific one-dimensional, distance-dependent error models, that have
heal the velocity artifacts inherited from starting model. Many features revealed the benefit of being very fast to use in standard location algorithms, but do not
in the model are consistent with independent geophysical observations in Central account for path-dependent variations in uncertainty, and structural inadequacy
California, including controlled-source tomography, gravity anomalies, and the of the RSTT model (e.g., model error). While the RSTT error models provide
locations of active faults. reasonable estimates of the travel time prediction error in regions of the world
that were well sampled by the data used in tomography, they likely severely
Seismic Noise Analysis to Constrain Shallow Velocity Structure in the underestimate the errors in poorly calibrated regions. We are developing and
Southern San Andreas Fault Region investigating a new covariance matrix for RSTT phase arrivals by mathematically
TSANG, S., UCSB, Santa Barbara, CA, sdtsang@umail.ucsb.edu; deriving a multivariate error model directly from a unified model of RSTT
TANIMOTO, T., UCSB, Santa Barbara, CA, toshiro@geol.ucsb.edu embedded into a statistical random effects model that captures the residual as
distance, path and model error effects. Initial work has been the development of
The seismic velocity structure in the southern San Andreas Fault region is a two-dimensional error model using path-distributed residuals, partitioned by
characterized by a known, distinct velocity contrast on opposite sides of the distance/turning depth. Even with the added complexity, the goal for a new RSTT
fault, with a thick sedimentary region on the west side (Salton Sea area). In this uncertainty method is to be readily usable to the standard user.
particular region, the amplification and duration of ground motions might be
enhanced. Consequently, the seismic wavefields in relatively, far-away and densely
populated areas like Los Angeles and San Diego could potentially be affected (e.g. Estimation of Time-Lapse Velocity Changes in the Earth by Full Waveform
sufficiently strong reverberation in the the Salton Sea region that could act as long- Inversion of Repeating Seismic Events
lasting, secondary sources of seismic waves). Therefore, improvement and further KAMEI, R., University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia, rie.
understanding of the 3D structure in the southern San Andreas Fault region is kamei@uwa.edu.au; LUMLEY, D., University of Western Australia, Crawley,
especially crucial. We measured Rayleigh-wave ellipticity of continuous broadband WA, Australia, david.lumley@uwa.edu.au
data from 2013 and 2014 for 35 stations within the Southern California Seismic Passive seismic monitoring of natural or induced seismicity can provide important
Network (SCSN). Measurements of Rayleigh-wave ellipticity were computed as information about time-variant subsurface phenomena, especially concerning fluid
the ratio between the vertical and horizontal amplitudes, otherwise referred to flow and stress-strain conditions. Traditional monitoring focuses on locating
as the “ZH ratio.” Preliminary examination of regional variations in ZH ratio seismic events, and interpreting the results in terms of changes to subsurface
measurements at frequencies of 0.10 Hz up to and including 0.40 Hz illuminate properties. Instead, we directly estimate the subsurface velocity changes, which
small ellipticity values (i.e. horizontal elongation in Rayleigh-wave particle motion) can be more quantitatively related to changes in fluid and stress states via rock
across the entire frequency band in the regions specific to the thick sedimentary physics and geomechanical relationships. The expected velocity changes are often
region. In this region, minimum ellipticity values (<0.20) observed at 0.10 Hz, so small that conventional traveltime tomography has difficulty in providing
0.15 Hz, and at 0.20 Hz show a gradual increase (up to 0.60) between 0.25 Hz to reliable detailed estimates. Our method is based on full waveform inversion (FWI)
0.40 Hz. In most areas exterior to the thick sedimentary region, ellipticity values are of the seismic data. FWI estimates a high-resolution subsurface model by fitting
generally constant across the frequency band and are relatively higher (>0.90). The waveforms in the data domain based on a numerical solution to the wave equation.
observed, small ellipticity values, which are characteristic of a slow velocity layer at We evaluate the performance of our FWI by using a synthetic set of repeating
shallow depths (upper 5-10 km), could have significant implications on the S-wave events recorded at a surface array of sensors. We use a realistic complex velocity
velocity structure. model which includes fine-scale heterogeneity, and consider the case where fluid
pore pressure has changed the stress state leading to a small (1-2%) velocity increase
Monitoring and Imaging the Response of Crustal Materials to Various in two distinct thin layers. We assume that we have reasonable estimates of the
Natural and Anthropogenic Loading Mechanisms of Different Amplitude and event locations and the background velocity model before starting the inversion.
Periodicity We use a bootstrapping technique, and iteratively update the velocity models
HILLERS, G., Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble, France, gregor.hillers@ujf- before and after the stress change (such that the method is applicable to non-
grenoble.fr repeating events). FWI retrieves the correct velocity change with excellent accuracy
at a high spatial resolution less than one wavelength. This is due to the ability of
We present results from multiple noise-based seismic monitoring studies that
FWI to invert the full waveform data including the coda, rather than traveltime
investigate in situ seismic velocity changes and noise correlation waveform
arrivals only. We analyse the inversion sensitivity kernels and show that the spatial
decorrelations in response to a variety of internal and external, natural and
resolution improves, and the required density of the sensor array reduces, for
anthropogenic loading mechanisms. Systematic variations in crustal material
velocity changes nearer to the seismic source location.
properties are observed analyzing data sets collected by several seismic networks
and arrays using various analysis techniques. The observed responses to natural
loadings cover a range of temporal and spatial scales, including velocity changes On the Use of the Autocorrelation Function: the Constraint of Using Frequency
governed by precipitation, thermoelastic strain, tides, and aseismic transients. We Band Limited Signals
focus on the effect of multiple, simultaneously acting loading mechanisms, and PILZ, M. P., German Research Center for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany,
discuss strategies to separate associated different contributions to obtained velocity pilz@gfz-potsdam.de; PAROLAI, S. P., GFZ - German Research Center for
change measurements for better sensitivityestimates. We consider biasing influences Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany, parolai@gfz-potsdam.de
of wavefield changes governed by variable excitation patterns, and discuss methods
that help to separate spurious from genuine velocity change estimates. Extending Correlations of seismic noise are commonly used to monitor temporal variations of
the range of natural to anthropogenic loading mechanisms, we show an application seismic velocity with a precision of 0.01 to 0.1%. However, measuring such small
of noise-based analysis concepts to a data set collected before, during, and after differences can be significantly biased by temporal variations of the properties of
a hydrothermal reservoir stimulation. The detection, resolution, monitoring, and the noise sources within the corresponding frequency band. Using synthetic data
imaging of an aseismic deformation transient of ˜35 days duration beginning we show that apparent velocity variations might appear only due to changes in
with the onset of the 2006 geothermal reservoir stimulation in Basel, Switzerland, the amplitude and frequency content caused by characteristic source variations.
demonstrate advantages of passive analysis tools in the context of geotechnical Removing such unwanted effects by applying narrow band pass filters in the
applications. preprocessing restricts the high-resolution analysis of any signal due to Gabort’s
uncertainty limit, i.e. the correlation function will suffer a limited resolution to
Developing Path-Dependent Uncertainty Estimates for Use With the Regional time delay estimates for small correlation times, low frequency ranges and for
Seismic Travel Time (Rstt) Model narrow frequency bands. Hence, it is important to account for these parameters to
BEGNAUD, M. L., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, diagnose the uncertainty and a failure to do so will deny the correct interpretation
mbegnaud@lanl.gov; ANDERSON, D. N., Los Alamos National Laboratory, of the mapped velocity variations.

on 09 October 2018
Non-Perturbational Surface Wave Inversion: A Dix-type Relation for Surface National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, templeton4@llnl.gov; PYLE, M., Lawrence
Waves Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, pyle4@llnl.gov
TSAI, V. C., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, tsai@
caltech.edu; HANEY, M. M., United States Geological Survey Volcano Microseismicity is inherently associated with geothermal systems. Thousands of
Science Center, Anchorage, AK, mhaney@usgs.gov microquakes are often associated with an active site. When processed using novel
geophysical techniques, these microquakes effectively illuminate the subsurface,
We extend the approach underlying the well-known Dix equation in reflection and can be used to monitor plume growth and identify otherwise hidden structures.
seismology to surface waves. Within the context of surface wave inversion, the Dix- The virtual seismometer method (VSM) is a technique of seismic interferometry
type relation we derive for surface waves allows accurate depth profiles of shear that provides precise estimates of the Green’s Function (GF) between earthquakes.
wave velocity to be constructed directly from phase velocity data, in contrast to It is very sensitive to the source parameters (location, mechanism and magnitude)
perturbational methods. The depth profiles can subsequently be used as an initial and to the Earth structure in the source region. Using VSM, we are able to
model for nonlinear inversion. We give 2 examples of the Dix-type relation for focus sharply on the cloud of microseismicity. We can monitor the evolution of
under-parameterized and over-parameterized cases. In the under-parameterized seismicity over time, measure changes in the style of faulting and sort microseisms
case, we use the theory to estimate crustal thickness, crustal shear wave velocity, by location and magnitude. Our ultimate intent is to use it to image structures
and mantle shear wave velocity across the Western U.S. from phase velocity maps within the microseismic cloud in an attempt to identify previously un-observed
measured at 8, 20, and 40 s periods. By adopting a thin-layer formalism and an fault zones. In simple terms VSM involves correlating the waveforms from a pair
over-parameterized model, we show how a regularized inversion based on the Dix- of events recorded at an individual station and then stacking the results over all
type relation yields smooth depth profiles of shear wave velocity. In the process, we stations to obtain the final result. In the far-field, when most of the stations in a
quantitatively demonstrate the depth sensitivity of surface wave phase velocity as a network fall along a line between the two events, the result is an estimate of the GF
function of frequency. between the two, modified by the source terms. In this geometry each earthquake
is effectively a virtual seismometer recording all the others. When applied to
High-Resolution Surficial Soil Velocity Models in the Canterbury, New microquakes, this alignment is often not met, and we also need to address the
Zealand Basin effects of the geometry between the two microquakes relative to each seismometer.
BRADLEY, B. A., University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand, Nonetheless, the technique is quite robust, and highly sensitive to the microseismic
brendon.bradley@canterbury.ac.nz; MCGANN, C. R., Washington State cloud. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of
University, Pullman, WA, christopher.mcgann@wsu.edu; COX, B. R., Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-
University of Texas, Austin, TX, brcox@utexas.edu; WOTHERSPOON, 07NA27344
L. M., University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand, l.wotherspoon@
auckland.ac.nz; WOOD, C. M., University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, Downhole Seismic Monitoring in the Istanbul/Eastern Sea of Marmara
cmwood@uark.edu; LEE, R. L., University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Region: The ICDP-GONAF Project
Zealand, robin.lee@pg.canterbury.ac.nz; TEAGUE, D. P., University of Austin, BOHNHOFF, M., GFZ Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, bohnhoff@gfz-
Austin, TX USA, dptea422@gmail.com potsdam.de; DRESEN, G., GFZ Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, dre@gfz-
potsdam.de; RAUB, C., GFZ Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, craub@gfz-
This presentation summarizes the development of high-resolution surficial soil potsdam.de; ACAREL, D., GFZ Potsdam.de, Potsdam, Germany; KILIC,
velocity models in the Canterbury, New Zealand basin. Shallow (<30m) shear T., AFAD, Ankara, Turkey, tugbay.kilic@afad.gov.tr; KARTAL, R. F.,
wave velocities were primarily computed based on a combination of a large database AFAD, Ankara, Turkey, recai.kartal@afad.gov.tr; KADIRIOGLU, F. T.,
of over 15,000 cone penetration test (CPT) logs in and around Christchurch, and a AFAD, Ankara, Turkey, filiztuba.kadirioglu@afad.gov.tr; NURLU, M.,
recently-developed Christchurch-specific empirical correlation between soil shear AFAD, Ankara, Turkey, murat.nurlu@afad.gov.tr; BULUT„ F., AFAM Aydin
wave velocity and CPT. Large active-source testing at 22 locations and ambient- University, Istanbul, Turkey, bulu.fati@gmail.com; MALIN, P.E., IESE,
wavefield surface wave and H/V testing at over 80 locations were utilized in Auckland, New Zealand, pem.asir@outlook.com
combination with 1700 water well logs to constrain the inter-bedded stratigraphy
and velocity of Quaternary sediments up to depths of several hundred meters. As part of the ICDP-GONAF project (Geophysical Observatory at the North
Finally, seismic reflection profiles and the ambient-wavefield surface wave data Anatolian Fault) geophone arrays are being installed in 300 m deep boreholes
provide constraint on velocities from several hundred meters to several kilometres. around the eastern Sea of Marmara. The objectives of GONAF are to (1) monitor
At all depths, the high resolution data illustrates the complexity of the soil the NAFZ transition from the 1999 Izmit rupture to the Princes Islands offshore
conditions in the region, and the developed 3D models are presently being used Istanbul, where a M ˜ 7 earthquake can reasonably be expected to occur and
in broadband ground motion simulations to further interpret the observed strong (2) to determine ground-motion amplification and near-surface properties at
ground motions in the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence. the GONAF sites. Five geophone arrays are fully operational while two more
are being completed in Spring 2015. The vertical arrays consist of one 1 Hz
Potential of Ambient Seismic Noise Techniques to Monitor the St. Gallen 3C Mark Products L4 seismometer at the surface, three 1 Hz vertical Mark
Geothermal Site (Switzerland) Products L4 seismometers at 75 m depth-spacings, and 1 Hz, 2 Hz and 15 Hz
OBERMANN, A., SED/ETH, Zürich, Switzerland, anne.obermann@ 3C seismometers at 288 m depth. The 1Hz MARK 3C seismometer has been
sed.ethz.ch; KRAFT, T., SED/ETH, Zürich, Switzerland, toni.kraft@ redesigned, gimble-mounted and deployed downhole to operate under low-noise
sed.ethz.ch; LAROSE, E., CNRS, ISTerre, Grenoble, eric.larose@ujf-grenoble.fr; conditions for the first time. During April-May 2013 the GONAF-Tuzla array in
WIEMER, S., SED/ETH, Zürich, stefan.wiemer@sed.ethz.ch eastern Istanbul recorded a microearthquake swarm located ˜ 3.5 km epicentral
distance east of the site. By cross-correlating the continuous Tuzla data with the
The potential for the use of deep geothermal energy is enormous. However, there only swarm event detected by the regional network (20th of April 2013, Md
are still scientific and technical hurdles to overcome. As illustrated by the failures 1.6) we retrieved an additional of 113 events confirming the expectations of a
of the 2006, Basel, and 2013, St. Gallen, experiments in Switzerland, one of the substantially lowered magnitude-detection threshold allowing for unprecedented
key challenges is to control the risk of inducing felt and potentially hazardous fault-zone characterization along the Princes island fault segment offshore of
seismic events during the development and operation of the heat exchangers. In this Istanbul.
context, we examine the potential of ambient noise techniques to monitor reservoir
dynamics related to the 2013 geothermal project in St. Gallen. On July 14th, 2013 In-situ Assessment of the G-γ curve for Characterizing the Nonlinear
an injection test was conducted at St. Gallen, followed by two acid injections Response of soil: Application to the Garner Valley Downhole Array (GVDA)
on July 17th. No significant micro-seismicity was observed in relation to these and the Wildlife Liquefaction Array (WLA)
tests. On July 19th a sudden gas release into the well occurred. The well control CHANDRA, J., Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France,
operations lead to a ML3.5 earthquake. In the present study we demonstrate the johanes.chandra@ujf-grenoble.fr; GUÉGUEN, P., Université Grenoble Alpes,
value of ambient noise techniques to monitor the geothermal site of St. Gallen. Grenoble, France, philippe.gueguen@ujf-grenoble.fr; STEIDL, J. H., UCSB,
We observe a strong perturbation of the seismic waveform in the coda of the cross Santa Barbara, CA, jamie.steidl@ucsb.edu; BONILLA, L. F., Université Paris,
correlations in response to the injections that we relate to local perturbations of the Paris, France, luis-fabian.bonilla-hidalgo@ifsttar.fr
medium.
We analyze the nonlinear and near-surface geological effects of two NEES@UCSB
Investigating Geothermal Systems Using Virtual Seismometers instrumented sites, the Garner Valley Downhole Array (GVDA), and the Wildlife
MATZEL, E., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, Liquefaction Array (WLA). The seismic interferometry by deconvolution method
matzel1@llnl.gov; MORENCY, C., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, is applied to earthquake data recorded by the multi-sensor vertical array between
Livermore, CA, morency1@llnl.gov; TEMPLETON, D., Lawrence Livermore January 2005 and September 2013. Along the cross-section, local shear wave

on 09 October 2018
velocity is extracted by estimating travel time between sensors. The S-wave velocity of: (i) single-station seismic analysis methodology, performed with data of only
profiles are constructed and compared with classical in-situ geophysical surveys. We one Earth station.We demonstrated the capability to retrieve the origin time and
show that velocity values change according to the amplitude of the ground motion epicentral distance of the events within the accuracy of the shortest surface wave
and we find anisotropy between EW and NS directions at the GVDA site. Ratio period used and to produce mantle velocity structure relatively close to the Earth
between average peak particle velocity v* and local S-wave velocity Vs* between two reference model (PREM). (ii) pre-launch estimation of the seismic and station-
boreholes is tested as a deformation proxy. Using average peak particle acceleration generated noise. This has led to a complete noise model, enabling better estimation
a*, the a* vs. v*/Vs* curve is used to represent the stress-strain curve for observing of the expected SNR and operational constraints, and to noise reduction strategies
the site nonlinear responses under different levels of excitation. Nonlinearity is using measurements taken by complementary sensors on the lander (especially for
observed from quite low shear strain levels (˜10-5) and a classic hyperbolic model is pressure and magnetic noise). (iii) estimation of the amplitude and frequency of
derived. v*/Vs* proves to be a good deformation proxy. Finally, the shear modulus signals generated not only by quakes but also by other non-seismic sources (impacts,
degradation curves are constructed for each depth and test site, and they are atmospheric hum and Phobos tide).
similar to previous laboratory measurements or in-situ geophysical surveys. Simple
comparison regarding nonlinear behavior between GVDA and WLA is performed. Using a Joint Tomography Inversion to Improve Models of Sierra Negra
Volcano, Galapagos
Near-vertical Multiple ScS Phases and Vertically Averaged Mantle TEPP, G., University of Rochester, Rochester, NY. USA, gtepp@pas.
Properties rochester.edu; EBINGER, C., University of Rochester, Rochester, NY,
KANAMORI, H., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, cynthia.ebinger@rochester.edu; SEATS, K., Stanford University, Stanford, CA,
hiroo@gps.caltech.edu; RIVERA, L., Université de Strasbourg CNRS, seatskj@gmail.com; ROECKER, S., Renssalaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY,
Strasbourg, France, luis.rivera@unistra.fr roecks@rpi.edu
Near-vertical multiple ScS phases are among the cleanest seismic phases traveling The rapidly deforming ocean island volcanoes in the western Galapagos are
over several thousand km in the Earth’s mantle and are useful for constraining an ideal subject for studying the plumbing systems of shield volcanoes. Our
the average attenuation and shear wave speed in the whole mantle. However, the previous work using local body-wave arrival-time tomography to image the
available multiple ScS pairs are limited. We took advantage of the recent dramatic western Galapagos volcanoes, particularly the Sierra Negra volcano, found that the
increase in the number of global broad-band stations, and made a thorough magmatic plumbing system is similar to the systems in Hawaii and other parts of
computer-assisted search for high-quality data of multiple ScS pairs. We could find the world. The results, however, were limited by the velocity model resolution, and
220 station-event pairs which provided us with robust local estimates of average Q only the Vp model was reliable. Here, we improve our velocity models by jointly
and 2-way shear wave travel times. With the assumption that geometric focusing inverting ambient noise data with the local body-wave data. The ambient noise data
caused by lateral velocity heterogeneity does not seriously affect the amplitude acts to constrain the S-wave velocities in the inversion, leading to a more robust S-
measurements, the Q values exhibit strong short-range lateral variations, with very wave velocity model overall and a more reliable model of Vp/Vs at shallow depths
high and low Q regions closely adjacent to each other. The mantle beneath KIP, (less than about 5.5 km). While local body-wave tomography typically has good
Hawaii, has normal Q and shear wave speed, which supports the result of earlier lateral resolution, it has poor depth resolution which is a strength of ambient noise
studies. The mantle beneath AFI, Samoa Islands, has a very high Q, possibly larger tomography. By jointly inverting the two, we retain and improve the good lateral
than 1400, and the slowest shear wave speed. The stations on the upper plate of resolution of the body-wave tomography models while also improving the depth
the Tonga and Japan subduction zones yield average to low Q values. In contrast, resolution. Using this joint inversion method, we improve our understanding of
the stations on the trenchward side of the upper plate of some subduction zones, the Sierra Negra magmatic plumbing system by generating a broad, whole island
e.g., LVC, Chile, and PET, Kamchatka, indicate high Q values, larger than 1000. model and a local model focused on the caldera, for which the improved resolution
We found no obvious correlation between Q and shear wave speed, which suggests permits. All data was recorded on a 15-station temporary array between July 2009
that different factors like temperature, composition, anisotropy, etc are controlling and June 2011. Initial results suggest a similar Vp model to that of our previous
these properties in the mantle of different tectonic environments. local body-wave work. The major difference is more high-velocity zones, especially
near the caldera.
SEIS/INSIGHT: The 2016 Seismic Discovery of Mars Tracking Magmatism At Active Volcanoes of the Aleutian Arc Via Ambient
LOGNONNE, P., Univ. Paris Diderot, Paris, France, lognonne@ipgp.fr; Noise
BANDERDT, W. B., CalTech, Pasadena, CA, william.b.banerdt@jpl.nasa.gov; BENNINGTON, N. L., University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, ninfa@
GIARDINI, D., Swiss Federal Institute of Technology , Zurich, Switzerland, geology.wisc.edu; HANEY, M., Alaska Volcano Observatory, Anchorage,
domenico.giardini@erdw.ethz.ch; PIKE, W. T., Imperial Collegue, London, AK, mhaney@usgs.gov; DE ANGELIS, S., U. Liverpool, Liverpool, United
UK, w.t.pike@imperial.ac.uk; CHRISTENSEN, U., Max Planck Institute, Kingdom, S.De-Angelis@liverpool.ac.uk; THURBER, C. H., University of
Göttingen, Germany; MIMOUNM, D., ISAE, France; CLINTON, J., ETHZ, Wisconsin, Madison, WI, thurber@geology.wisc.edu; FREYMUELLER, J., U.
Switzerland; DEHANT, V., ORB, Belgium; GOLOMBEK, M., JPL-Caltech; Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, jeff.freymueller@gi.alaska.edu; LAROSE, E.,
GARCIA, R., ISAE, France; JOHNSON, C., UBC, Canada; KOBAYASHI, N., Institute of Earth Science, Grenoble, France, eric.larose@ujf-grenoble.fr
ISAS, Japan; KNAPMEYER-ENDRUN, B., MPS, Germany; MOCQUET, A.,
LPGN, France; PANNING, M., Univ. FL; SMREKAR, S., JPL-Caltech; TROMP, Augustine is one of the most active volcanoes in Alaska’s Cook Inlet and lies only
J., Princeton; WIECZOREK, M. , IPGP-Sorbonne Paris Cité, Univ. Paris, 300 km away from more than half of Alaska’s population. Veniaminof and Okmok
France Diderot, lognonne@ipgp.fr; WEBER, R.C., NASA-MSFC; BEUCLER, volcano, are two of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian Arc. Frequent and
E., LPGN, France; Blanchette-Guertin, J., IPGP-Sorbonne Paris Cité, Univ. Paris, at times unpredictable activity at these volcanoes pose major hazards to the heavily
France Diderot; Daubar, I., JPL-Caltech; DRILLEAU, M., IPGP-Sorbonne Paris trafficked north Pacific air routes that overly them, local people, oil production
Cité, Univ. Paris, France Diderot,;, KAWAMURA, T., IPGP-Sorbonne Paris facilities, and shipping activity. For these reasons, it is imperative that we improve
Cité, Univ. Paris, France Diderot,;, KEDAR, S., JPL-Caltech; MURDOCH, N. our ability to detect precursory activity leading to active volcanism at Augustine,
, ISAE, France; HURST, K., JPL-Caltech; LAUDET, P., CNES, France; and the Veniaminof , and Okmok volcanoes. Recently, permanent GPS instruments at
InSight/SEIS Team, IPGP-Sorbonne Paris Cité, Univ. Paris, France Diderot Okmok volcano indicated rapid inflation occurring within its caldera. Seismic
interferometry using ambient noise was performed in order to probe the subsurface
InSight (Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat and determine temporal changes in seismic velocity associated with this rapid
Transport) is the next Discovery mission, selected by NASA in 2012. It will be inflation event. Our investigation revealed a continual decrease in seismic velocity
launched in March 2016 for a landing by the end of September 2016. Science from August until December 2013 for intra-station paths that traverse the caldera
operation will start in January 2017. The payload is a complete geophysical and individual stations located within the caldera. Such decreases in seismic
observatory, with a seismometer (SEIS), an heat flux experiment (HP3), a geodesy velocity likely represent the production, and possibly intrusion, of magmatic
experiment (RISE), a magnetometer and a suite of at-mospheric sensors measuring fluids into the shallow magma reservoir. Using the distribution of seismic velocity
wind, atmospheric temperature, and pressure. SEIS is the primary instrument of decreases, we infer that this rapid inflation event is occurring within the geometric
the mission and consists of a 3-axis very-broad-band (VBB) instrument and a 3-axis center of the caldera. Our future work will focus on identifying temporal changes
short period (SP) instrument. Its technical description is detailed in a a compagnon in seismic velocity leading to active volcanism at Augustine and Veniaminof
abstract (K.Hurst et al, SSA 2015). SEIS is expected to provide the very first seismic volcanoes. We will determine temporal changes in seismic velocity from pre-
records of Mars. Thus implementation of the science goals is very challenging due through post-eruption, specifically for the 2006 Augustine and 2002 through 2013
to the almost complete lack of information on the deep seismic interior structure of Veniaminof eruptions. Given the dense seismic network at Augustine, a natural
Mars, as well as its level of seismic activity and surface seismic noise. Efforts of the extension of this work will include spatial mapping of temporal changes in seismic
SEIS science team were concentrated in three areas, associated with the challenges velocity from pre- through post- 2006 eruption.

on 09 October 2018
Potential Advantages of Continuous Data Collection in Active Source 20 Years of Using Earthquake Scenarios in Risk Reduction Practice
Experiments: Characterizing the Seismic Structure of Basins and Upper Crust RODGERS, J. E., GeoHazards International, Menlo Park, CA, rodgers@
of the Bighorn Mountains Region in Northern Wyoming geohaz.org; TUCKER, B. E., GeoHazards International, Menlo Park, CA,
WORTHINGTON, L. L., University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, tucker@geohaz.org; TOBIN, L. T., GeoHazards International, Menlo Park, CA,
lworthington@unm.edu; SHEEHAN, A. F., University of Colorado, Boulder, lttobin@aol.com
CO, anne.sheehan@colorado.edu; SCHMANDT, B., University of New
Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, bschmandt@unm.edu; MILLER, K. C., Texas GeoHazards International (GHI) has used earthquake scenarios as tools to
A&M University, College Station, TX, kcmiller@tamu.edu; HARDER, S. H., communicate risk, raise awareness and motivate action in vulnerable communities
University of Texas, El Paso, TX, harder@geo.utep.edu since 1992. We pioneered using scenarios to reduce risk in emerging countries
during projects in Ecuador, Nepal, Bhutan, India, Indonesia and Asia Pacific
We characterize the seismic velocity structure of the basins and upper crust of the Economic Cooperation economies, and held a first-of-its-kind workshop in 1993
Bighorn Mountains region of northern Wyoming using traditional active-source to agree on good practices for such scenarios. GHI used scenarios with varying
wide-angle reflection and refraction techniques combined with ambient noise depth and technical detail, with different input from earth and social scientists,
surface wave tomography from the Bighorn Arch Seismic Experiment (BASE). engineers, and policy specialists. Scenarios range from detailed city scenarios
Travel-time data from 21 lithospheric shots recorded on approximately 1500 to short judgment-based narratives describing impacts on a hospital. Scenarios
vertical component 4.5 Hz geophones (Texans) along two profiles was used to often are risk communication tools, not technical exercises. GHI’s experience
construct a high-resolution P-wave velocity model of the crust. A 30 km single- provides four lessons for those using scenarios and those developing underlying
fold reflection section constructed across the Bighorn Arch images mid-crustal science and engineering information. First, rigor should not be the enemy of the
events and Moho. In addition to conventional active and passive source seismic effective. Scenarios used to communicate or motivate need not be data-intensive,
data acquisition, BASE included deployment of 850 Texans approximately 1 km costly loss estimation exercises—they must describe consequences of shaking on
spacing for two weeks of continuous recording. We determine group velocities community values. Scarce risk reduction funds are typically better used to develop
of surface waves in the Bighorn and Powder River Basins using cross-correlation and implement solutions, rather than on more detailed analyses. Keeping the
of ambient noise data from the continuous Texan deployment decimated to 40 scenario’s intended use in mind is essential. Second, involve highly experienced
samples/second. Preliminary results show the most distinct events at filter bands practitioners and local professionals who can ensure major findings agree with
of 0.1-0.3 Hz and 0.2-0.4 Hz when the data was analyzed separately for each of ground realities, can recommend solutions to problems uncovered, and bring
the basins and the Bighorn Arch. The two basins show slightly different velocity credibility. The process of diagnosing consequences and developing solutions with
structure at 0.1-03 Hz, with the dominant energy centered at 2.2 km/s for the those who will implement recommendations is more important than scenario
Bighorn Basin and 1.7 km/s for the Powder River Basin. We use the high- results. Third, select the scenario earthquake based on sound earth science and
resolution surface wave model in order to (1) characterize shallow structure and (2) intended use. A worst case doesn’t necessarily motivate people or help uncover
examine affects on velocity-depth tradeoffs in mid-crustal and Moho imaging from the main risk problems, but is useful for emergency planning and critical facilities.
the active source analysis. This analysis is especially useful at the edges of the active Finally, communicate compellingly using good graphics and plain language, with
source profiles where there is limited ray coverage and, therefore, fewer constraints the end user in mind.
on near surface velocity structure.
Challenges in Earthquake Risk Modeling from a Reinsurer’s Perspective

KAESER, M. A., MunichRe, Munich, Germany, mkaeser@munichre.com
Earthquake risk modeling is a fundamental prerequisite for the reinsurance

Earthquake Hazards and Risk: Drivers and Consumers of industry to calculate adequate insurance prices. Despite the fact that earthquake
Earthquake Research risk and, in particular, earthquake hazard modeling has gone through years of
Oral Session · Wednesday · 8:30 AM · 22 April · Ballroom C steady improvements, there are still enormous challenges to be solved. Looking
at recent experiences of earthquake events, it seems that not only the occurred
Session Chairs: Delphine Fitzenz, Edwin Apel, David Wald, losses but even the earthquakes themselves and their characteristics have come as
Paul Somerville and Ting Lin a surprise. Considering the risk modeling process as a work-flow that typically
involves the three major part of hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and
exposure analysis, the problems can be split into two categories: (1) data availability
Increasing Demand for Earthquake Research and Data in the Insurance or data quality and (2) modeling techniques and uncertainty treatment. Hazard-
Industry related data availability and quality varies for different regions and often entire
FRANCO, G., Guy Carpenter, London, United Kingdom, Guillermo.E. earthquake hazard models already exist. Sometimes several views on seismic hazard
Franco@guycarp.com are published, while in other regions no data on seismic hazard is available and even
basic information like earthquake catalogues, soil characteristics, ground motion
Over the last three decades, insurers and reinsurers have progressively become large estimates, or secondary effects is scarce. Concerning vulnerability information of
consumers of earthquake research, sometimes accessing it directly from academic buildings, contents or business interruption the situation often is even worse.
sources but mostly through the earthquake risk models they use to estimate their Similarly, the delivery of exposure data with a satisfying granularity in the sense of
potential losses. The sector is now poised to rapidly become an even larger and geographical location, building type, building age, etc., is only slowly improving in
much savvier consumer than ever before due to recently adopted changes in the many parts of the world. However, such data is crucial to transform seismic hazard
regulatory environment that will require a much stricter validation of probabilistic into risk. Different modeling techniques can provide results with substantial
models than has been undertaken thus far. As these numerical tools are deeply deviations. In such cases it is extremely tedious to find out where these deviations
rooted in complex scientific assumptions, their validation will require scientific come from and what are the main drivers of earthquake risk. Furthermore,
datasets with which companies can benchmark them. The backbone of Guy uncertainties inherent to the entire risk modeling process and there potential
Carpenter’s scientific testing protocols for earthquake models will be presented correlations are treated very differently in the reinsurance industry and cause a huge
in the context of its Model Suitability Analysis (MSA) initiative. Lessons learned range of possible views on seismic risk.
from multiple scientific collaborations have shown that the fraction of knowledge
“visible” to most of the (re)insurance sector and embedded in existing models, while
most often reasonable, is also often narrow and many, equally valid and reasonable, Putting Pager’s Rapid Earthquake Loss Estimation Capabilities to Use:
alternative assumptions tend to remain in the shadows. The information contained the Usaid/Ofda Scenario Efforts and Post Earthquake Response-Related
in these “shadows” is of critical importance to the industry since uncertainty Applications
is costly in (re)insurance operations. A large standard deviation on financial JAISWAL, K. S., USGS/Synergetics Inc, Golden, CO, kjaiswal@usgs.gov;
outcomes tends to penalize solvency scores of companies. Therefore, there is
MARANO, K. D., USGS, Golden, CO, kmarano@usgs.gov; WALD, D. J.,
value in knowing both where the adopted view of risk falls within the existing
USGS, Golden, CO, wald@usgs.gov; HEARNE, M., USGS, Golden, CO,
uncertainty as well as the level of epistemic uncertainty itself. The creation and
mhearne@usgs.gov; LENON, C. P., Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO,
deployment of benchmark datasets will have to be efficient so that their acquisition
clenon@mymail.mines.edu; MAYBERRY, G.,USGS/OFDA, Washington,DC,
costs are reasonable. As scientific validation processes become more uniform and
gmayberry@usaid.gov
widespread, it is foreseeable that standards of information interchange between
research institutions and the industry will emerge. Suggestions for these standards The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)’s Prompt Assessment of Global
will be presented. Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system has automatically generated over

on 09 October 2018
2,500 earthquake shaking-based impact alerts. These alerts have been publicly of clustering implied by source models in current risk models of independent
circulated within 20 to 30 minutes of any earthquake M=5.5 worldwide events. Then 2) we investigate how to infer joint probabilistic recurrence models
and M=4.0 within the United States. An overwhelming proportion of these for systems of nearby faults from trench and catalog data and how that might
earthquakes, regardless of their size (magnitude) or location, were correctly complement current forecast techniques that aim for a medium-term to long-
estimated by the PAGER system to be low impact earthquakes. Despite a number term applicability. 3) Although it is obvious how important those spatio-temporal
of challenges associated with rapid loss estimation as well as the large uncertainties informations would be for risk models, to assess the accessibility of a region (e.g.,
associated with each estimate, the PAGER system was appropriately able to alert for lifeline-related business interruption, supply-chain studies, mobility of people
its users about most of the large and consequential earthquakes within minutes and resources), optimal reconstruction strategies, etc., we show the challenging
of their occurrence. That said, the accuracy of the projected range of losses feedback loops that would be required to fully take advantage of them. Using
from the initial automated PAGER alert version improved during subsequent OEF beyond cat-response would in addition introduce events formally labelled
revisions. In this presentation we summarize the PAGER real-time performance aftershocks, and would require even finer models for progressive damage, valuation
while also presenting an overview of non-real time PAGER uses in generating of buildings, reconstruction and re-zoning polices to lead to quantitative and time-
earthquake scenarios for select at-risk global cities (e.g., Kathmandu, Nepal; varying probabilistic risk estimates. Do we need a more comprehensive suite of risk
Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; Cape Haitian, Haiti; Lima, Peru). The later effort has been products? Could we use OEF in short-term studies of a region after a mainshock,
focused on developing countries in order to help improve the U.S. Agency for focusing on lifelines and accessibility more than on building damage?
International Development, Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster AssistanceŠs response
contingency planning. The scenario results are presented in a summary Fact Design Ground Motions for the Reconstruction of Christchurch
Sheet that includes the ShakeMap and the PAGER outputs, secondary hazards SOMERVILLE, P., URS, Los Angeles, CA, paul.somerville@urs.com
and impact estimates, customized engineering reports on the building stock
at risk, and exposure/loss visualization products. In addition to the scenario Approximately 90% of the buildings in the Christchurch Central Business District
development efforts, the PAGER team is working towards producing country- have been demolished in the aftermath of the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake
specific engineering reports that detail a list of the dominant country-specific sequence, and new buildings are now being designed to replace them. This
building types, information on building practices, dangers posed by the current presentation discusses some issues that arise in the development of design ground
building stock, and typical failure modes, as well as information about building motions for the rebuilding of Christchurch. Christchurch is one of the few
performance from historic earthquakes, where applicable. These reports will cities that have recorded ground motions at or above design level, providing an
eventually be produced automatically for large consequential earthquakes in order opportunity to include location-specific ground motion characteristics that are
to aid urban search and rescue operations. usually unavailable. The ground motions recorded during the earthquake sequence
are potentially influenced by both event terms and by site amplification effects, and
Synchronous Rupture of the Wasatch and West Valley Fault Zones in Northern assumptions may be required in order to separate these effects. Christchurch is also
Salt Lake Valley, Utah one of the few instances in which an aftershock has been much more damaging than
DUROSS, C. B., U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO, cduross@usgs.gov; the mainshock. This has given rise to the development of an earthquake forecast
HYLLAND, M. D., Utah Geological Survey, Salt Lake City, UT, mikehylland@ for the Canterbury region having time-varying hazard level. Aftershock sequences
utah.gov are not ordinarily included in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, and inclusion
of a time-dependent model having a large contribution from smaller aftershock
The Salt Lake City segment (SLCS) of the Wasatch fault zone and the events can give rise to high short-period ground motion levels that have limited
antithetic West Valley fault zone (WVFZ) form a large, intrabasin graben in damage potential. Deaggregation of the hazard for the development of ground
northern Salt Lake Valley, Utah. These faults have evidence of Holocene, surface- motion time histories for use in design shows that earthquakes of the kind that
faulting earthquakes, and questions remain regarding whether the WVFZ ruptures occurred during the 2010 -Ű 2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence do not make
simultaneously with the SLCS, or is a separate, independent source of earthquakes. a major contribution to the seismic hazard for mid-rise or base isolated buildings;
To investigate the interaction of the SLCS and WVFZ, we integrate previous this level is instead dominated by larger, more distant earthquakes because of their
paleoseismic data with new data from recent trench investigations and compare much greater frequency of occurrence. The level of design ground motions used in
earthquake timing and displacement data for both faults. We find significant the reconstruction of Christchurch may impact financial aspects of reconstruction
overlap in the timing of several SLCS and WVFZ earthquakes. On the SLCS, including insurance.
at least nine earthquakes postdate the time of the Lake Bonneville highstand
(˜18 ka). At least six post-Bonneville-highstand earthquakes ruptured the WVFZ;
Risk Modeling Needs and Barriers to Action: A Global Study of Earthquake
however, the record may be incomplete because of distributed faulting and
Safety Practitioners
limited paleoseismic data. Five WVFZ earthquakes have time distributions that
MORESCO, J. C., Risk Management Solutions, Newark, CA, justin.
overlap with those of SLCS earthquakes. One WVFZ earthquake lacks a temporal
correlation with a SLCS earthquake, but it occurred during a period for which moresco@rms.com; PEEK, L., Colorado State University, Fort Collins,
the SLCS chronology may be incomplete. Per-event vertical displacements for the CO, Lori.Peek@colostate.edu; TUCKER, B. E., GeoHazards International,
WVFZ (˜0.5 m) are less than half of those for the SLCS (˜1.2–1.9 m), consistent Menlo Park, CA, Tucker@geohaz.og
with displacements predicted by previous kinematic modeling of antithetic faulting This paper provides an overview of risk modeling needs of earthquake safety
triggered by slip on a listric master fault. We conclude that large WVFZ practitioners in 11 earthquake-prone cities in seven countries around the globe.
earthquakes are likely synchronous with, or triggered shortly after, SLCS surface- The purpose of the study was to better understand the current tools and
faulting earthquakes. Although structural models suggest a greater likelihood for resources that earthquake safety practitioners in developing and high-income
synchronous rupture, earthquake-timing uncertainties preclude determining an countries already have and the tools and resources that practitioners say that
unequivocal coseismic link between the SLCS and WVFZ. Ultimately, these results they need to more effectively promote earthquake risk reduction activities. The
help reduce uncertainties in the rupture behavior of the SLCS and WVFZ and study included in-depth interviews and surveys with more than 100 practitioners
have important implications for how antithetic fault pairs are treated in earthquake from government, business, health care, education and grassroots groups. The
hazard models. practitioners represent diverse professional backgrounds and risk assessment
experiences. They include mayors, city planners, emergency managers, business
Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Seismicity and Risk Models continuity managers, hospital emergency management coordinators, school
FITZENZ, D. D., RMS, Newark, CA, delphine.fitzenz@rms.com; CHANG, C. principals, community organizers and church leaders. Risk assessment experts—
Y., RMS, Newark, CA, Ching-Yee.Chang@rms.com such as academic researchers or professional cat modelers—were purposely omitted
from the study, in order to focus on the needs of these other professionals who are
A lot of attention was given to earthquake sequences in the past few years, in also necessary participants in building community resilience. The study found that
particular due to the 15 loss-causing events (EQC) of the Canterbury sequence. 40% or fewer of the practitioners already have any one of 21 key risk assessment
This hinted at a need beyond the long-term view of earthquake risk in which resources, such as maps of earthquake fault lines or projected economic losses. Some
all events are independent provided by current models. A big effort is underway of the expressed needs varied based on the context where the practitioners were
in Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF), with many models developed and located, with those from higher-income countries (e.g., the U.S., New Zealand,
tested, that learn from past catalogs and are used to forecast event rates at some and Turkey) expressing fewer immediate needs than those from the lower-income
predefined time horizon. Most methods rely heavily on statistical seismology countries in the sample (e.g., India, Bhutan, Peru, and Indonesia). The paper also
techniques applied to point processes and only recently have attempted to include analyzes the barriers to action that practitioners face and identifies nine barrier
mapped active faults. A lot of the forecast events are aftershocks, which are not meta-themes. Only one of these meta-themes—“technology, information, and
routinely used in risk models. In this contribution we aim to 1) assess the level messaging barriers”—can be directly mitigated by traditional risk assessment tools.

on 09 October 2018
Visualizing Seismic Hazards and Risk protecting the public. The deterministic considers magnitudes of the largest
NIKBAKHT, H., Marquette University, Milwaukee, WI, hamed.nikbakht@ potential or Maximum Credible Earthquakes (MCE) and shows the full hazard,
marquette.edu; LIN, T., Marquette University, Milwaukee, WI, ting.lin@ whereas the probabilistic shows the likelihood of earthquakes and presents the risk.
marquette.edu The rationale for design criteria are also different; deterministic criteria are set to
withstand effects from the MCE and probabilistic to withstand impacts of some
Earthquake research in the last few decades has led to considerable advances in probability level not to be exceeded over a certain time period. The deterministic
seismic hazard and risk modeling across academia, industry, and government. grew out of the concern to protect critical structures at all times, because the time
Technological advances such as high performance computing and visualization can of an MCE cannot be predicted. It is straightforward, based on geologic research
further facilitate earthquake hazard and risk research. This work utilizes the CAVE and expressed in actual values. The probabilistic came from the philosophy of why
of the Marquette Visualization Laboratory to visualize seismic hazards and risk by prepare for large earthquakes that are too far into the future to be of concern with
integrating hazard characterization, structural modeling, and emergency response. increased cost. It is complex and based on statistics. The flaw is that earthquakes
Building upon the framework of performance-based earthquake engineering, site- can happen at any time with disastrous costly consequences. Long experience in
specific ground motions, which link seismic hazards to structural responses, serve California supports the deterministic approach as do the available strong motion
as loading inputs to structural models. The resulting structural responses can then records in southern California, but not the probabilistic. The same holds true
be translated into damage states of building elements in the immediate room for the eastern U.S. The probabilistic approach has had a high rate of failure in
environment based on fragility functions. To illustrate, we display a map of the hazard assessment, including those impacted by the great Tohoku earthquake in
Los Angeles region with ground motions for the Mw7.8 ShakeOut scenario, create Japan, the moderate earthquakes at L’Aquila, Italy, Central Virginia and Napa,
a virtual room in a residential building subjected to such earthquake shaking, California among others. These disasters could have been greatly mitigated had the
and simulate emergency response in this immersive environment. The illustrative deterministic results been used.
visualization can be extended to various scenarios and help communicate site- and
structure-specific hazards and risk to the general public.
Has Performance Based Engineering Broken the Power Law?
HEATON, T. H., Caltech, Pasadena, CA
Automated Operational Earthquake Risk Assessment: Challenges and
Promise The Gutenberg-Richter law is a power-law in which the majority of tectonic
RUNDLE, J. B., University of California, Davis, CA, jbrundle@ucdavis.edu; deformation comes from the largest earthquakes. In contrast, most probabilistic
HOLIIDAY, J. R., Open Hazards Group, Davis, CA, jrholliday@ seismic hazard analyses (psha) imply that extreme events are too infrequent to
openhazards.com; GRAVES, W. R., Open Hazards Group, Davis, CA, significantly affect the overall hazard. Near-source ground motions are a concern
graveswr@gmail.com; RUNDLE, P. B., Open Hazards Group, Davis, CA, for building collapse. I show that high-frequency near-source ground motions are
p.b.rundle@gmail.com; HANNON, A., Open Hazards Group, Davis, CA, log-normally distributed. Log-normal statistics describe independent events such
otters7@juno.com; RUNDLE, D. E., Open Hazards Group, Davis, CA, daniel. as auto accidents. In contrast, low-frequency ground motions are a difficult-to-
e.rundle@gmail.com; GRAVES, C. R., Open Hazards Group, Davis, CA, characterize power law. Epidemics are described by power-law statistics. I show
gravescr@gmail.com that the collapse of tall buildings can be predicted from peak ground velocity
and displacement (pgv, pgd). For 20-story steel-moment-frame buildings, pgd’s
According to statistics compiled by the California Earthquake Authority, only > m combined with pgv’s > m/s can cause collapse. While tall buildings have
10% of California homeowners carry earthquake insurance, presumably due to the not experienced these conditions; they will in the future. Simulations of the 1906
cost and limited options available. A recent CEA proposal (dated 10/23/2014) San Francisco earthquake indicate a strong potential for collapse in urban parts
to dramatically expand the options available for homeowners would replace the of the Bay Area. That 1906-like earthquakes will collapse tall buildings seems
current limited rate structure of 10% or 15% deductibles with a much larger range. incompatible with the belief that these systems are designed to withstand the largest
This raises an important question: How is the homeowner to know what rate shaking in a millennium. I show how current use of 5% damped sa in psha produces
and deductible to choose? Since earthquake insurance is typically sold for yearly this incorrect conclusion. Currently, psha measures the size of earthquakes using
intervals, frequent changes in seismic risk will have a real-time impact on the magnitude, but (pgv, pgd) is poorly described by magnitude. The amplitude of
decision of whether to purchase earthquake insurance, and if so, how much. An fault slip is a better parameter; doubling slip, doubles long-period motions. Slip
automated system for evaluating and managing personal risk from seismic activity distributions are best described by power-laws. Current use of log-normal statistics
is one solution to the problem of how to choose an appropriate level of earthquake is significantly underestimating the probability that long-period buildings will fail
insurance. Such a system needs to compute an earthquake forecast, to propagate in future large earthquakes.
the ground motion from the earthquake source to the structure, and finally to
evaluate the structural integrity of a residence when subjected to seismic shaking.
Since earthquake hazard can change rapidly in time, the earthquake forecast must Effective Scenario-Based Seismic Risk Mitigation at National and Local
be updated on demand or at least daily using a real-time catalog. In this talk Scale
we describe a system of this type that has been operating for over 4 years at PERESAN, A., DMG University of Trieste and ICTP, Trieste, Italy,
http://www.openhazards.com and via the iOS mobile app Quakeworks. The tools aperesan@units.it; MAGRIN, A., DMG University of Trieste, Trieste,
used to compute this type of automated personal earthquake risk assessment are Italy, amagrin@units.it; VACCARI, F., DMG University of Trieste and ICTP,
built using the best science taken from the peer reviewed literature. An operational Trieste, Italy, vaccari@units.it; ROMANELLI, F., DMG University of Trieste
system must also take account of challenges relating to the expected capabilities of and ICTP, Trieste, Italy, romanel@units.it; PANZA, G. F., DMG University of
the user base, which place strong constraints on the nature and functions of the Trieste and ICTP, Trieste, Italy
system. The tradeoffs we have considered in designing the system will be discussed A single hazard map cannot meet requirements from all different end-users
here, and the result can be seen at the URL listed previously. and a single ground motion parameter (i.e. PGA) is not sufficient for the due
analysis of the seismic response of buildings and infrastructures. A scenario-
based Neo-deterministic approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA)
Engineering and Public Safety Concerns raised by Seismic is available and provides flexible information for engineering analysis and is
more effective in predicting real ground shaking than traditional probabilistic
Hazard Assessment Methods maps. NDSHA approach considers a wide range of possible seismic sources,
Oral Session · Wednesday · 1:30 PM · 22 April · Ballroom C eventually including the maximum-credible earthquake (MCE), as the starting
Session Chairs: Lalliana Mualchin, Antonella Peresan, point for deriving scenarios by means of full waveforms modeling. Based on
the possibility to efficiently compute synthetic seismograms in realistic laterally
Vladimir Kossobokov and Jens-Uwe Klügel heterogeneous anelastic media, a set of scenarios of ground motion can be
defined, either at national and local scale. The method does not make use of
How Seismic Hazard Assessment Method and the Rationale for Design empirical attenuation models (GMPE) and naturally supplies realistic time series
Criteria Determines a Safe Outcome or Disaster of ground shaking (i.e complete synthetic seismograms), readily applicable to
MUALCHIN, L., International Seismic Safety Organization (ISSO), Arsita (TE), complete engineering analysis and other mitigation actions. Intensive usage of
Italy, mualchin@hotmail.com; BAROSH, P. J., International Seismic Safety advanced computational infrastructures enables the implementation of parametric
Organization (ISSO), Arsita (TE), Italy, pjbarosh@fullchannel.net studies to characterize the related uncertainties. NDSHA can provide the temporal
information eventually needed for risk assessment by using appropriate statistical
The two seismic methods used to assess the danger, deterministic and probabilistic, models, supported by data; in fact, it naturally allows for the generation of
define earthquake potential very differently and have different outcomes in ground shaking maps at specified return periods, as well as for time-dependent

on 09 October 2018
ground shaking scenarios that can be submitted to a rigorous validation process. intended purpose of underpinning seismic design used seismicity rates that are
Operational issues are discussed, addressing basic comments on treatment of consistent with the entire historic record. Both the developers of the Map and its
uncertainties and probabilities of earthquake occurrence, including cost/benefits. critics acknowledge that the remarkable rise of seismicity in Oklahoma and nearby
NDSHA has been applied for seismic risk assessment of schools, strategic buildings, states must be addressed if we are to assess the hazard in both space and time.
lifelines and cultural heritage sites, and for the purpose of seismic microzoning in The key issues were addressed in a November 2014 workshop held in Midwest
several urban areas worldwide. City, Okla., cohosted by USGS and the Oklahoma Geological Survey. The 150+
participants from regulatory agencies, petroleum industry, academic researchers
Seismic Hazard Assessment: A Difficult but Necessary Task for Seismologists and users of hazard models provided clear advice that short-term (˜1 year) and
WANG, Z., University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, zmwang@uky.edu frequently updated (<< 1 year) hazard models are needed. Here we discuss
the development of a logic tree approach that addresses short-term changes in
Recent earthquakes, particularly the 2008 Wenchuan, China, 2009 L’Aquila, seismicity rates. A key challenge is to develop an operational earthquake forecasting
Italy, 2010 Haiti, 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand, and 2011 Tohoku, Japan, capability that anticipates where activity may either initiate or shut-off in response
earthquakes, have renewed debates among seismologists on seismic hazard to changing forcing functions. Forecasting more than “last year’s earthquakes” will
assessment. These debates highlighted that seismic hazard assessment is not only require a deeper understanding of the physical processes and conditions that link
a difficult task, but also a necessary one. Seismic hazard assessment is difficult human perturbations to the Earth system to its response in seismic events.
because there are large uncertainties inherent in the location, magnitude, and
recurrence interval of earthquakes and the resulting ground motion. Seismic Overview of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast
hazard assessment is also necessary because society demands the information (UCERF3) – From Multi-Fault Ruptures to an Operational Earthquake Forecast
for mitigation. The initial sentencing of imprisonment for six Italian scientists FIELD, E. H., USGS, Golden, CA, field@usgs.gov
following the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake demonstrates this demand. A record
number of special sessions (at least five) accepted for the 2015 SSA annual We present an overview of the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture
meeting also illustrates that seismic hazard assessment is an important issue for Forecast (UCERF3), developed by the ongoing Working Group on California
seismologists. Thus, it is critical for seismologists to quantify and communicate Earthquake Probabilities. Topics to be covered include a review of how we relaxed
seismic hazards in a transparent, scientifically defensible, and understandable way. segmentation and included multi-fault ruptures in the time-independent model
This presentation will explore the issues and present more practical approaches for (UCERF3-TI), and how we applied Reid’s elastic-rebound theory in the long-
quantifying and communicating seismic hazards. term, time-dependent model (UCERF3-TD). We will also discuss the main results
and implications, including comparisons with the previous model (UCERF2), as
On the Development of the Seismic Design Basis of Critical Infrastructures well as resources available to those wishing to implement the model. In addition,
and Lifelines we will present progress on adding a spatiotemporal clustering component to
KLUEGEL, J. U., NPP Goesgen-Daeniken, Daeniken, Switzerland, jkluegel@ UCERF3, where an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model has been
msn.com merged with the finite-fault, elastic-rebound-based framework (UCERF3-ETAS).
Notably, inclusion of elastic-rebound turns out to be critical in terms of replicating
Recent large earthquakes and the tremendous consequences regarding human life realistic spatiotemporal clustering statistics (otherwise ˜85% of large triggered
and financial losses have clearly demonstrated the inappropriateness of currently events simply re-rupture the same fault, which we don’t see in nature). Finally, we
in use probabilistic and risk-based methods for the development of the seismic will discuss additional steps needed to deploy UCERF3-ETAS as an operational
design basis of critical infrastructures. This provides the motivation to develop earthquake forecast for California.
meaningful alternatives. The procedure for the development of the seismic design
basis of critical infrastructures proposed in the paper is based on proven physical Implications of Changes to Seismic Hazard Characterization on Building
and engineering sciences taking into account uncertainties in decision making Codes and Engineering Applications
as well as the lessons from past disasters caused by natural hazards. The key KIRCHER, C. A., Kircher & Associates, Palo Alto, CA USA, cakircher@aol.com
elements of the procedure, robust hazard analysis and the key elements of a
performance based engineering design process are presented. The significantly While changes to the seismicity of the earth tend to occur gradually over long
increased robustness of the hazard analysis is achieved by the use of safety factors periods of time, every five or six years the National Seismic Hazard Mapping
with a sound statistical basis. The robustness is demonstrated by applying insights Program of the USGS publishes new seismic hazard maps that reflect changes to
from the mathematical theory of records and of the statistics of super-heavy tail seismic source characterization, ground motion predictive equations and seismic
distributions. The procedure proposed can also be used for the validation of the hazard analysis methods that can be quite significant. Changes to the USGS seismic
seismic design basis of existing critical infrastructures like nuclear power plants as hazard maps directly affect the seismic design criteria of the NEHRP Provisions
will be discussed on examples from Western U.S.A and Europe and ASCE 7 which adopt these maps for seismic design and indirectly affect
building codes such as the International Building Code whose earthquake loads
are based on ASCE 7 seismic criteria and the International Residential Code
2014 National Seismic Hazard Mapping Updates: Hazard whose Seismic Design Category maps are derived from USGS seismic hazard maps.
Changes to the USGS seismic hazard maps appropriately reflect earth science
Changes and Influence on Seismic Risk advancements and an improved understanding of earthquake ground motions, but
Oral Session · Wednesday · 3:45 PM · 22 April · Ballroom C pose challenges for seismic code committees and engineering practitioners who
Session Chairs: Kishor Jaiswal, Doug Bausch, Nilesh Shome find it difficult to explain to societal stakeholders and clients why the earthquake
regulations of the building code have changed (again) and why, for example, their
and Mark Petersen building(s) which have may have been recently constructed no longer comply with
the earthquake regulations of the new building code. Changes to the USGS seismic
Earthquake Hazard When the Rate is Non-Stationary: The Challenge of the U. hazard maps resulting from some physical phenomenon such as a recent major
S. Midcontinen earthquake or discovery of a new active source can be understood by stakeholders,
ELLSWORTH, W. L., U. S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA; COCHRAN, but changes without a physical basis such as including or excluding certain faults
E. S., U. S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA; LLENOS, A. L., U. S. Geological from the hazard calculation simply because of a change in published research or
Survey, Menlo Park, CA; MCGARR, A., U. S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA; judgmental revisions of hazard modeling methods are problematic and generate a
MICHAEL, A. J., U. S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA; MUELLER, C. S., lack of confidence by stakeholders in the science which seems to change every five
U. S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO; PETERSEN, M., U. S. Geological Survey, or six years even for those regions such as coastal California for which stakeholders
Golden, CO; RUBINSTEIN, J. L., U. S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA have been led to believe the science is solid and reasonably settled.
In July 2014, the U. S. Geological Survey released an update of the 2008 National New Audiences, New Products for the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps
Seismic Hazard Map for the coterminous U. S. The Map provides guidance for PERRY, S. C., USGS, Pasadena, CA, scperry@usgs.gov; PETERSEN, M. D.,
the seismic provisions of the building codes and portrays ground motions with a USGS, Golden, CO, mpetersen@usgs.gov
2% chance of being exceeded in an exposure time of 50 years. Over most of the
midcontinent the hazard model is derived by projecting the long-term historic, The USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHM) contain information that
declustered earthquake rate forward in time. However, parts of the midcontinent could be valuable to many risk reduction efforts, but only a limited number
have experienced increased seismicity levels since 2009 – locally by 2 orders of of experts (primarily engineers) understand the current maps. Thus the USGS
magnitude – which is incompatible with the underlying assumption of a constant- convened a workshop that united USGS scientists with risk communication
rate Poisson process. The 2014 Map acknowledged this problem, and for its experts from social and behavioral sciences, social design, and marketing to

on 09 October 2018
discuss how to develop new NSHM products for new audiences. Workshop problems impede the identification of these low-probability earthquakes (the
attendees agreed that the NSHM face communication challenges, as they search area is larger than for readily identifiable pending plate boundary
have highly technical information, use probabilities, and involve events that earthquakes, prolonged inter-event erosion can mask evidence for previous fault
happen in long time frames with uncertainty of occurrence. Aspects of human activity, and a subset of earthquakes occur on blind faults), the consequences of a
nature and literacy levels can limit understanding and use of NSHM maps. future damaging earthquake near large populations or critical facilities, can justify a
Fortunately, decades of research and practice in risk communication reveal ways focused evaluation of evidence for infrequent earthquakes. Several areas in India
to meet those challenges and also provide guidelines for making products that a clearly qualify for such study- ancient mid continent rift zones, and reactivated
targeted audience can understand and will use. The guidelines are summarized faults on passive margins, and the marginal fold-and thrust belts in Pakistan.
in these six steps: 1. Define your goals. What do you want to Examples from India’s western coast (the Vijaydurg fault), Kachchh and the
communicate, to whom? What do you want the audience to do with your Narbada rift are exemplified by major faults recognizable from Holocene surface
information? To what benefit? How do you define success? 2. Know your scarps that may have slipped in major earthquakes. Uplift along the northern edge
audience. User concerns, goals, needs, expectations, literacy, experience, of the Shillong plateau occurred in 1897 in response to 25 m of reverse slip in an
beliefs, risk perception, demographics and cultural characteristics all play roles Mw=8.1 blind thrust earthquake. Moreover, numerous potential great ruptures
in the understanding and interpretation of information. 3. Meet people have recently been identified at the east and western end of the central Himalayan
where they are. Work with users throughout the product development decollement that appear to have not slipped in more than five centuries.
process. Build from their understanding and viewpoints, not yours. Use clear,
plain language. 4. Employ design thinking. Be inclusive, open to new From Stable to Destructive: How Creeping Fault Segments Can Join Seismic
ideas, collaborative. Avoid pre-conceptions and be willing to change your plans. 5. Events
Evaluate early and often. The evaluation process will help you achieve LAPUSTA, N., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, lapusta@
the other guidelines. 6. Iterate. Repeat every aspect of the process. caltech.edu
This talk will focus on key communication challenges facing the NSHM and the
workshop’s recommended solutions. Rate-and-state fault models associate creeping regions with rate-strengthening
(VS) friction, suggesting that they act as barriers to earthquakes since their strength
Earthquake Risk in Conterminous United States Using the Usgs Probabilistic increases with their slip rate. Indeed, earthquakes often arrest at the boundaries
Seismic Hazard Models of creeping regions. However, experimental and theoretical studies reveal that
JAISWAL, K. S., USGS/Synergetics Inc., Golden, CO, kjaiswal@usgs.gov; several weakening mechanisms, such as thermal pressurization of pore fluids, can
PETERSEN, M. D., USGS, Golden, CO, mpetersen@usgs.gov; BAUSCH, be activated at high seismic slip rates. As earthquake penetrates into the VS fault
D., FEMA, Denver, CO, douglas.bausch@fema.dhs.gov; CHEN, R., areas, it significantly increases slip rates there, potentially activating the additional
CGS, Sacramento, CA, rui.chen@conservation.ca.gov; RUKSTALES, K., co-seismic weakening and turning the stable fault areas into seismogenic ones. We
USGS, Golden, CO, rukstales@usgs.gov; LEITH, W., USGS, Reston, VA, have explored such behavior in a numerical model with fault properties measured
wleith@usgs.gov using rock samples obtained from the Chelungpu fault, the site of the 1999 Chi-
Chi earthquake (Noda and Lapusta, 2013). The model reproduces a number of
The analysis of the 2014 NSHMs as well as recent LandScan population and both long-term and coseismic observations about faults that hosted the 2011
infrastructure data reveals that approximately 142 million people are exposed to Tohoku-Oki and 1999 Chi-Chi earthquakes. Moreover, only models in which
potentially damaging ground motions (peak ground accelerations at or above 0.1g) the largest earthquakes rupture a creeping region can reproduce the 1000-year
in the conterminous United States. About 28 million may experience 0.1g level recurrence interval proposed for the Tohoku-Oki-like events (Cubas et al, in
of shaking at relatively frequent intervals (annual rate of 1 in 72), 57 million may revision, 2015). In short, it is physically plausible for a creeping fault region to
experience this level of shaking at moderately frequent intervals (annual rate of 1 in sustain dramatic seismic slip, and this may have occurred in the 2011 Tohoku-
475), and 142 million may experience such shaking at relatively infrequent intervals Oki and 1999 Chi-Chi earthquakes. After seismic slip, such regions would stay
(annual rate of 1 in 2,475). The analysis also shows that there is a significant locked for a while, but eventually accumulate enough stress to start creeping again,
number of critical infrastructure facilities located in high (MMI VII and above obscuring the evidence of their violent past. Hence using only the relatively short
with moderately frequent recurrence interval) earthquake-hazard areas. Further, recorded seismic and geodetic history for estimating seismic hazard is inadequate,
we make use of the most recent NSHMs (the years 2008 and 2014 cycles), updated and we need to study creeping regions, such as the one on the San Andreas Fault,
census data on population, and economic exposure estimates of general building for evidence of past seismic events and susceptibility to dynamic weakening.
stock to quantify annualized earthquake loss (AEL). The AEL analyses were
performed using the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Hazus Bi-Modal Behavior of the North Anatolian fault
software, which facilitated a systematic comparison of the influence of the 2014 KOZACI, O., Fugro Consultants Inc., Walnut Creek, CA, o.kozaci@fugro.com
NSHMs in terms of annualized loss estimates in different parts of the country.
The North Anatolian fault is one of the best studied dextral strike slip faults in
While the losses from an individual earthquake could easily exceed billions of
the world. Combination of multiple investigation methods; such as traditional
dollars, the long-term value of earthquake losses within the conterminous U.S. on
paleoseismic excavations, archeoseismology, dendroseismology, mapping and
an average basis would be $4.5 billion per year, roughly 80% of which would be
dating of offset geomorphic features, and geodetic observations performed
attributed from California, Oregon and Washington states.
along the 1200km-long fault over the past decade yield new insights into the
spatio-temporal behavior of the North Anatolian fault. Integration of such
complementary methods helped us reduce the uncertainties on interpretations,
The Where, When and Why of Uncharacteristic revise our early measurements, and enhance our understanding of the fault
Earthquakes behavior. Paleoseismic data suggest that the majority of the North Anatolian
Oral Session · Wednesday · 8:30 AM · 22 April · Ballroom F fault may rupture in short (about a century long) sequences with less than
approximately 300 year recurrence intervals as well as occasional 600 year or longer
Session Chairs: Doug Yule, Richard Heermance, Elizabeth interseismic periods followed by long, single co-seismic ruptures involving multiple
Madden, Michele Cooke and Jack Loveless segments. The generally accepted maximum co-seismic displacement per event for
the North Anatolian fault is approximately 5 meters. However, integration of
geologic slip rate sites and nearby paleoseismic trench sites suggest that the 20th-
Future Earthquakes in Areas of Low Strain Rate century rupture displacements (approximately 4-5 meters) may not be “typical”
BILHAM, R., University of Colorado - Boulder, Boulder, CO, roger. and the approximately 8-10 meter 1939 Erzincan earthquake rupture may not be
bilham@colorado.edu that extraordinary. These observations will likely have implications on both our
scientific understanding on fault behavior from a strain accumulation and stress
A characteristic of several recent damaging earthquakes (Chengdu, Bhuj,
release cycle perspective and also on seismic hazard assessment studies.
Christchurch etc.) is their occurrence sometimes hundreds of km from a plate
boundary in regions where low (less than 10E-8/year) geodetic strain rates Time-Dependent Coupling and Future Seismic Potential on the Subduction
prevail. In that, before their occurrence, slow strain rates and the absence of a Interfaces of Japan
previously documented historical earthquake, has characterized these earthquakes LOVELESS, J. P., Smith College, Northampton, MA, jloveles@smith.edu;
as unexpected, their occurrence has led to a subsequent search that has confirmed MEADE, B. J., Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, meade@fas.harvard.edu
the earthquake should not have been unexpected: liquefaction, ancient surface
scarps, synchronous landslides, tsunami deposits, or a causal hitherto unrecognized Several recent subduction zone earthquakes, including the 2010 MW 8.8 Maule
active subsurface structure. It follows that future similar earthquakes will occur (Chile), 2011 MW 9.0 Tohoku-oki (Japan), and 2012 MW 7.6 Nicoya (Costa
in many parts of the world hitherto considered aseismic. Although formidable Rica) events, ruptured portions of the plate interface that were inferred to have

on 09 October 2018
been partially to strongly coupled in the preceding interseismic period. Such spatial paleoseismic data have been interpreted to support single-segment ruptures during
correspondence encourages the ongoing monitoring of coupling distributions large (M=7.0) earthquakes, but uncertainties in earthquake timing permit longer
on seismogenic faults worldwide, with hopes of anticipating the location and ruptures that span segment boundaries. To improve our understanding of WFZ
magnitude of future earthquakes. Using retrospective analysis of GPS position ruptures, we analyzed lidar data, conducted paleoseismic trenching, and evaluated
time series from the GEONET array in Japan, we estimate coupling on the Japan long-term WFZ exhumation. First, we analyzed high-resolution (8 pts/m2)
Trench, Sagami Trough, and Nankai Trough subduction interfaces over four airborne lidar to characterize WFZ traces and estimate vertical slip rates at segment
approximately 3-year intervals from 1996–2011. We find that concentrations boundaries from offset Lake Bonneville shorelines. A low slip rate of =0.5 mm/yr
of coupling, and hence rupture areas of future potential earthquakes, vary in at the Brigham City-Weber segment boundary is consistent with a local WFZ
space through time, influenced in part by the occurrence of nearby subduction slip deficit, a recently documented spillover rupture, and possibly repeated rupture
zone earthquakes, associated postseismic deformation, and interpreted aseismic termination at this boundary. The cumulative slip rate at the Provo-Nephi segment
transients. For example, a concentration of coupling offshore the island of boundary is similar to typical WFZ rates (1–2 mm/yr), suggesting that the overall
Hokkaido in northernmost Japan persisted until 2003, when the MW 8.2 Bonneville-age slip rate does not diminish here, but is distributed across the
Tokachi-oki earthquake occurred there. Following this great earthquake, coupling overlapping faults. Paleoseismic data from within this segment boundary allows
persisted, albeit at a lower magnitude, and has shifted to the northeast toward us to identify single-segment ruptures and several earthquakes that may have
the Kuril Islands, suggesting the potential of a great earthquake adjacent to ruptured various distances across this boundary, consistent with non-persistent
the Tokachi-oki rupture area. On the Nankai Trough interface, transient slow location of rupture terminations. Earthquakes that involve two full fault segments
slip events near the base of the seismogenic zone may temporarily reduce the are permissible but temporal correlation is non-unique. At the Salt Lake City-
area yet increase the intensity of coupling concentrations farther updip. Current Provo segment boundary, geochronologic results from two trenches will constrain
concentrations of coupling exist on the Nankai interface beneath the island of earthquake chronologies and test for through-going ruptures. Finally, we use
Shikoku, the Kii Peninsula, and the Tokai region; on the Sagami interface offshore mountain front exhumation to infer that long-term (Myr) slip decreases at some,
Tokyo, and on the Japan Trench interface at the southeast and northeast extents but not all segment boundaries, supporting both persistent and non-persistent
of Hokkaido. rupture. In summary, these findings provide evidence of complex, single- and multi-
segment WFZ ruptures.
Inter-, Co-, and Post-Seismic Fault Slip Associated With Recent Large
Megathrust Earthquakes Turning Uncharacteristic Earthquakes into Expected Events: Identifying
SIMONS, M., Caltech, Pasadena, CA, simons@caltech.edu; DUPUTEL, Fault Geometry and Damage Development within Fault Steps as Key
Z., IPG Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France, zacharie.duputel@unistra.fr; Characteristics of Segmented Systems
RIEL, B., Caltech, Pasadena, CA, briel@caltech.edu; JIANG, J., Caltech, MADDEN, E. H., University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, betsymadden@
Pasadena, CA, jjle@gps.caltech.edu; OWEN, S., JPL/Caltech, Pasadena,
gmail.com; COOKE, M. L., University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA,
CA, susan.e.owen@jpl.nasa.gov; MOORE, A., JPL/Caltech, Pasadena, CA, cooke@geo.umass.edu; SAVAGE, H., Columbia University, Palisades, NY,
angelyn.w.moore@jpl.nasa.gov; JOLIVET, R., Cambridge University, Cambridge, hsavage@ldeo.columbia.edu
UK, jolivetinsar@gmail.com; RIVERA, L., IPG Strasbourg, Strasbourg,
France, luis.rivera@unistra.fr; ORTEGA, F., U. of Chile, Santiago de Earthquakes that rupture across steps between fault segments challenge seismic
Chile, Chile, ortega@dgf.uchile.cl; KANAMORI, H., Caltech, Pasadena, hazard assessments. However, considering fault segmentation as typical and
CA, hiroo@gps.caltech.edu; FIELDING, E., JPL/Caltech, Pasadena, CA, studying its key characteristics is turning these unexpected events into those for
eric.j.fielding@jpl.nasa.gov; SAMSANOV, S., CCRS, Ottawa, ON, Canada, which we can identify the relative seismic potential. Compilations of rupture
sergeysamsonov@nrcan-rncan.gc.ca; NORABUENA, E., IGP, Lima, Peru, data and numerical models suggest that certain segment geometries promote
enorab@nazca.igp.gob.pe slip continuation across fault steps. In addition, faulting and damage within
steps may play a critical role in promoting rupture. For example, the Landers-
The April 1, 2014 (Mw 8.2) Pisagua Earthquake occurred in Northern Chile, Kickapoo Fault, within a releasing step between major faults along the 1992
within a long-recognized seismic gap in the Central Andean region. Tide-gauge
Landers earthquake rupture, was critical to slip continuation (Madden et al.,
observations of trans-Pacific tsunami observations from large earthquakes in the 2013). Though previously unknown, trenching after the earthquake showed prior
same region (1868, 1877, 1995, 2001 and 2014) indicate that the 2014 event slip. A dense cluster of Landers aftershocks and the 1979 Homestead Valley
is an order of magnitude smaller than those in 1868 and 1877. We find no earthquake sequence, centered on this step, also suggest extensive damage here.
robust evidence in regional GPS data for transient slow fault slip lasting several
We investigate how the geometry of segmented faults, and damage and faulting
weeks and spanning the same period as that of increased seismicity preceding within steps, affects earthquake ruptures using 2D numerical models. First, we
the mainshock. We obtain estimates of distributed fault slip during the different compare the potential for ruptures across releasing and restraining steps. Both
phases of the seismic cycle using an internally consistent Bayesian unregularized allow continuous slip at short distances between faults, but only releasing steps
approach. The use of such an approach maximizes the spatial resolution with which do so at long distances. Second, we allow coseismic tensile damage to develop over
we can interrogate the physics of slip on subsurface faults. We find negligible repeated ruptures to assess if and when slip continues across the steps. We find
spatial overlap between regions of co-seismic and post-seismic slip and that the that damage within releasing steps promotes continuous slip. Third, we compare
combined regions inferred to slip during these two time periods agree remarkably
the influence on rupture potential of tensile damage and of fault growth into
well with regions that are not creeping during the inter-seismic period. We the step from the tips of the pre-existing faults over multiple earthquakes. Fault
show a similar relationship between co-seismic, post-seismic and inter-seismic growth leads to systems that are efficient at transferring slip, but may require
deformation for other recent large earthquakes including the 2003 Tokachi-Oki, many earthquakes and be influenced by tensile damage. This suite of models
2005 Nias, 2010 Maule and 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquakes. Within the resolution reveals that segment geometry, tensile damage, and fault propagation are key
of the present kinematic models, regions that slide in stick-slip fashion and those characteristics of segmented fault systems that are critical to assessing their seismic
that slide aseismically appear to be mutually exclusive. These observations are hazard.
consistent with simple models of fault slip on the megathrust where heterogeneity
in slip behavior is dominantly controlled by intrinsic spatial variations in material
properties. When considered in the context of Northern Japan, these models, A Case for Multi-Fault Rupture in the Southern California Earthquake of
as well as conventional kinematic coupling estimates, suggest the potential for December 8th, 1812
a large earthquake updip from the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake offshore of LOZOS, J. C., Stanford University, Stanford, CA, jlozos@stanford.edu
Hokkaido.
The earthquake of 8 December 1812 is known to have ruptured the San Andreas
Fault from Cajon Pass to at least as far north as Wrightwood (Jacoby et al, 1988;
Evidence for Non-Persistent Rupture Terminations at Central Wasatch Fault Fumal et al, 2002). A paleoseismic event consistent with the 1812 rupture has
Zone Segment Boundaries, Utah been identified in trenches at Burro Flats to the south (Yule and Howland, 2001).
BENNETT, S. E. K., US Geological Survey, Golden, CO, sekbennett@usgs.gov; However, the lack of such a record at the Plunge Creek site, between Cajon Pass
GOLD, R. D., US Geological Survey, Golden, CO, rgold@usgs.gov; DUROSS, and Burro Flats (McGill et al, 2002), is a complication to the interpretation of
C. B., US Geological Survey, Golden, CO, cduross@usgs.gov the 1812 event as a straightforward San Andreas rupture. I use dynamic rupture
modeling to investigate what physical processes may have led to this gap in the 1812
We present paleoseismic and geomorphic constraints on the extent of recent surface rupture. In addition to the San Andreas Fault, I include the northern San
(<20 ka) surface ruptures and evidence for non-persistent rupture terminations Jacinto Fault in these scenarios, as it has a large early 19th century paleoseismic
at segment boundaries along the central Wasatch fault zone (WFZ). WFZ event that has not been attributed to a specific historic earthquake (Onderdonk

on 09 October 2018
et al, 2013; Kendrick and Fumal, 2005). I find that the scenario that produces the escarpment suggest that segmentation of the interface may produce smaller (M7)
best explanation of the data is a rupture that begins with northward propagation events.
on the San Jacinto Fault, jumps to the San Andreas Fault in Cajon Pass, and
propagates bilaterally from there. This promotes continued energetic northward
rupture on the San Andreas, due to a combination of directivity and stress transfer
from the initial rupture reaching the end of the San Jacinto. However, this stress How Reliable Are Reconstructions and Models of
transfer also places the region south of Cajon Pass in a localized stress shadow,
which results in a lower energy rupture that may be inhibited from reaching the Surface-Rupturing Earthquakes?
surface at Plunge Creek. While it cannot be definitively said that this, or any Oral Session · Wednesday · 1:30 PM · 22 April · Ballroom F
other, rupture progression is what actually occurred in 1812, joint San Andreas- Session Chairs: Scott Bennett, Katherine Scharer and Julian
San Jacinto rupture is consistent with paleoseismic and historical data. This has
considerable implications for interpretation of other paleoseismic events in regions Lozos
of complex fault interactions, as well as for the possibility of future multi-fault
rupture within the San Andreas system.
Can Recurrence Models Explain the Century-Long Hiatus in California Paleo-
Seismic Events?
JACKSON, D. D., UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, david.d.jackson@ucla.edu;
Uncharacteristic Earthquakes and Multi-Strand Ruptures of the Southcentral
San Andreas Fault System RICHARDS-DINGER, K., UC Riverside, Riverside, CA, keithrd@ucr.edu;
GRANT LUDWIG, L., University of California, Irvine, CA, lgrant@uci.edu MILNER, K., USC, Los Angeles, CA, kmilner@usc.edu
Mid-1980s paleoseismic data from the southcentral San Andreas fault (SAF) A comprehensive and well-reviewed summary of paleo-seismic data, prepared for
provided a framework for development of the characteristic earthquake model the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, shows no events at
(Schwartz and Coppersmith, 1984), which became the foundation for the any of the 32 included sites for almost a century. The long-term rate of paleo-
Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment. When the expected Parkfield events reported at one or more sites is about 4 or more per century, so the
earthquake did not occur within the prediction time window, I highlighted recent hiatus is surprising. For a Poissonian ensemble sequence the probability of
emerging paleoseismic evidence of complex rupture patterns and “uncharacteristic such an open interval is around one percent, and for quasi-periodic occurrence
earthquakes on the San Andreas fault” (Grant, 1996) which might partially the probability is even less. Published data for individual sites suggests quasi-
explain results of the prediction experiment. Newer paleoseismic data, plus periodic recurrence, but that reduces the probability of longer-than-average
reinterpretation of older data, and insights from other data types such as intervals. Using statistical and physics-based simulation, we explore the possibility
precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) lend support to a model of uncharacteristic that clustering at individual sites or fault-to-fault interactions among sites may
earthquakes and multi-strand ruptures of the southcentral SAF. In the Carrizo conspire to shorten some ensemble intervals so that a few longer intervals
Plain, dates of paleoearthquakes and patterns of slip suggest complex rupture survive.
patterns along the main strand of the SAF. In addition, new high resolution LiDAR
images led to the discovery and subsequent excavation of a subsidiary strand of How do Models of Paleoseismic Rupture Detectability Affect Estimates of
the SAF system, informally named the Bidart fault (Grant Ludwig and Akciz, Earthquake Probabilities?
2014). Uncertainties in radiocarbon dating are too large to determine whether the GILCHRIST, J. J., UC Riverside, Riverside, CA, jacquelyn.gilchrist@
Bidart fault and SAF ruptured concurrently in the historic 1857 AD earthquake, email.ucr.edu; DIETERICH, J. H., UC Riverside, Riverside, CA, dieterichj@
or prior prehistoric events, but observations indicate the Bidart fault ruptures less ucr.edu; RICHARDS-DINGER, K. B., UC Riverside, Riverside, CA, keithrd@
frequently than the main SAF strand. Near the southern termination of the 1857 ucr.edu
rupture, clusters of PBRs exist anomalously close to the SAF in locations where
ground motions have been insufficiently strong to topple them. Complex rupture Paleoseismic records are necessarily incomplete because events become increasingly
patterns through Cajon Pass, where the SAF and San Jacinto fault merge, have been difficult to detect as slip decreases, and large earthquakes may be missed if the
proposed to explain the persistence of relatively low ground motions. In summary, rupture did not pass through the trench or the sedimentation rate was not
paleoseismic data from the SAF suggests that uncharacteristic earthquakes involve conducive to preserving ruptures. It is also difficult to differentiate between
multi-stranded ruptures of a fault system, rather than repetition of single-stranded events that occur very close in space and time. We strive to test the effects of
characteristic earthquakes. different models of detectability in paleoseismic studies on the probabilities of large
earthquakes in California. We employ the 3D boundary element code RSQSim
with a new California fault model, based on the UCERF3 report, to generate
Potential for Large Earthquakes on the Patton Escarpment, Offshore Southern synthetic catalogs with millions of events. The simulations incorporate rate-state
California fault constitutive properties, in complex, fully interacting fault systems. These
LEGG, M. R., Legg Geophysical, Inc., Huntington Beach, CA, mrlegg@ long, simulated catalogs allow us to compute probabilities of large earthquakes in
verizon.net California. Our UCERF3 catalogs are tuned to match the recurrence intervals
for the paleoseismic sites in the UCERF3 report by making adjustments to
The 14 December 2012 M6.3 earthquake located west of the Patton Escarpment the normal stress in the model. To test the effects of rupture detectability on
shows that Borderland-induced drag on the adjacent Pacific Ocean crust may earthquake probabilities, we compare earthquake probabilities at paleoseismic sites
be seismogenic. The subduction megathust beneath the Patton Escarpment is using catalogs that were thinned, prior to tuning, based on different models of
presumed extinct after establishment of the PAC-NAM plate boundary and event detectability. The first catalog was tuned assuming 100% detectability. The
activation of the San Andreas-Gulf of California transform fault system. Inferred second catalog was thinned using the UCERF3 [Appendix I] probability model of
microplate capture and vertical-axis rotation of the Western Transverse Ranges detection, which is based on amount of observed slip at each site. The third catalog
(WTR) crustal block suggest that a low-angle detachment surface above the was thinned based on a model of detectability that assumes fewer detectable events
subducted oceanic crust remained active during mid-Miocene Borderland rifting. than given by the UCERF3 model.
The WTR, mantle root, and San Andreas restraining bend impede northwest-
directed transport of the eastern Pacific Ocean lithosphere. Incomplete coupling
of the Borderland crust to the underlying oceanic lithosphere may produce Paleoseismic Speed Dating: Pushing the Limits on Dating Earthquakes and
unexpected large earthquakes that allow Pacific lithosphere to slip past the WTR Re-thinking Inputs Used in OxCal Age Models
obstruction. Rather than typical subduction thrust mechanisms, these events STREIG, A. R., Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, streig@coas.
could include combinations of low-angle oblique-extension and local thrust or oregonstate.edu; WELDON, R. J., University of Oregon, Eugene, OR,
oblique-reverse components at fault irregularites along the Patton Escarpment. ray@uoregon.edu; DAWSON, T. E., California Geological Survey, Menlo Park,
Alternatively, high-angle strike-slip faults may form along the former trench to CA, Timothy.Dawson@conservation.ca.gov; GAVIN, D., University of Oregon,
accommodate the differential motion between the Pacific lithosphere and the Eugene, OR, dgavin@uoregon.edu; GUILDERSON, T., Lawrence Livermore
Baja California microplate. Large unexpected strike-slip earthquakes with complex National Laboratory CAMS, Livermore, CA, guilderson1@llnl.gov
rupture patterns, similar to the Indian Ocean intraplate events subsequent to
the great Sumatra subduction event of 26 December 2004. Based on the length Earthquakes large enough to produce surface rupture pose great hazard to
of the Patton Escarpment (˜500 km) and estimated eastward extent of the populations living on active plate margins. Because instrumental earthquake
detachment (˜50 km in brittle crust), earthquakes exceeding M8 may be possible. chronologies are too short to determine the frequency of hazardous earthquakes,
Outer Borderland morphology and a major bend at the southern end of the paleoseismic studies that determine the age and size of past surface ruptures

on 09 October 2018
have become a high priority. Intervals between surface ruptures on faults span rate data and published paleo-earthquake ages from the central Garlock fault
decades to thousands of years, and uncertainties in estimates of surface rupture indicate that during a 0.5-2 ka cluster of four earthquakes the fault was slipping
timing have a large impact on our understanding of the variability of earthquakes at >12.5±1.5 mm/yr, twice as fast as the long-term average rate. This elevated
at a point on a fault, and our ability to correlate prehistoric ruptures between late Holocene rate must be balanced by periods of slow/no slip such as that
sites. Radiocarbon is frequently used to date pre-instrumental ruptures but can during the c. 3300-yr-long seismic lull preceding the cluster. Moreover, whereas
have combined contextual and analytical uncertainty on the order of decades to paleoseismic data suggest that Garlock earthquakes are triggered by periods of rapid
centuries, especially in the past 300 years. Paleoseismologists often add information SAF Mojave slip or very large-slip events, the “on-off” behavior of the Garlock
to reduce uncertainty stemming from radiocarbon ages; this includes removal suggests that the strength of the ductile part of the fault varies over millennial
of apparently inconsistent radiocarbon samples, incorporating historical records, time scales, in keeping with most models of the geodetic velocity field, which
dendrochronology (and similar annual records), the presence or absence of yield rates of elastic strain accumulation that are much slower than the average
biomarkers like non-native pollen, and Bayesian statistical modeling. Excessive Garlock slip rate of 6.5±1.6 mm/yr. These observations imply the occurrence of
ordering constraints in earthquake age models, especially constraints based on strain “super-cycles” on the Garlock fault that span multiple earthquake cycles
stratigraphically inconsistent detrital charcoal samples and the timing of the first and that are likely controlled by variations in relative strength of the various
appearance of non-native pollen, have produced earthquake chronologies that are faults in the SAF-Garlock-ECSZ fault system, and which may be associated with
almost certainly incorrect. We apply high-precision dating techniques (wiggle- large variation in the rate of elastic strain accumulation and release along these
matching) to push the limit on dating recent earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault faults.
at Hazel Dell in the southern San Francisco Bay Area, CA. We demonstrate that
3 surface rupturing earthquakes occurred in the historic period since ˜1800 (with Distributed Deformation and Fault Slip in the Eastern California Shear Zone
less than a decade uncertainty), and are recorded in sediments that lack non-native EVANS, E. L., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, eevans@usgs.gov;
biomarkers. Our findings increase the number of surface rupturing earthquakes on POLLITZ, F. F., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, fpollitz@usgs.gov
the SAF during early European settlement three-fold.
Discrepancies between geologically and geodetically estimated slip rates in the
Dynamic Rupture Models of Historic and Recent Paleoseismic Ruptures on eastern California shear zone (ECSZ) have led to the hypothesis that distributed
the Northern and Central San Jacinto Fault or continuous deformation accommodates a portion of the strain. Differentiating
LOZOS, J. C., Stanford University, Stanford, CA USA, jlozos@stanford.edu; between deformation due to earthquake cycle processes and off-fault deformation
is essential for accurate modeling and forecasting of earthquakes because off-
ROCKWELL, T. K., San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, trockwell@
fault deformation may not contribute to accumulated earthquake moment. Such
mail.sdsu.edu; ONDERDONK, N. W., California State University, Long Beach,
distinctions can be a challenge due to the diversity of possible seismogenic faults
CA, nate.onderdonk@csulb.edu
in the ECSZ and the potentially overlapping strain accumulation signals of
The recent historic behavior of the northern and central San Jacinto Fault has closely spaced locked faults. We use block models to address the potential role
been limited to moderate earthquakes. However, paleoseismic data indicate that of distributed deformation and fault system geometry in the ECSZ. These block
all three major strands of this portion of the fault have experienced multiple models are constrained by geologic slip rate estimates and by horizontal GPS
large ruptures, with an average of 2.5 to 3 m slip on the Claremont strand observations, which have been corrected for visco-elastic postseismic deformation
(Onderdonk et al., 2014) and 3 to 3.5 m slip on the Clark strand (Rockwell et transients. First, we approximate distributed deformation processes with block
al., 2014). Using the 3D finite element method, we model dynamic ruptures on models incorporating homogeneous internal strain. A second class of models
the northern and central San Jacinto Fault in an attempt to replicate both historic uses total variation regularization (TVR), an L1 regularization method, to
and paleoseismic rupture behaviors. Our models incorporate a fault geometry algorithmically assess the best-fitting fault system geometry from a dense initial
based on field mapping, a realistic velocity structure, and a stress orientation model containing 62 ECSZ blocks. We reduce the number of active faults with
based on seismicity literature. We vary initial stress amplitudes on the fault to see TVR to identify a block model geometry that is more consistent with geologic and
which conditions are necessary to produce events similar to the large paleoseismic geodetic observations than with block models that allow for internal strain. Some
ruptures, as well as which changes to those conditions are required to accommodate discrepancies between geologic and geodetic slip rates may therefore be attributed
smaller historic earthquakes. We are able to produce model ruptures that are to fault geometry alone, and a distributed deformation process is not necessarily
consistent with the San Jacinto Valley earthquakes of 1899 and 1918 in terms required to describe ECSZ deformation.
of magnitude and ground motion distribution, as well as model events consistent
with any of several poorly-located earthquakes near Cajon Pass in the 1890s. We
also match the average surface displacement for 1918. All of these models require a Cryptic Strike-Slip Deformation in a Region of Presumed Normal Faulting:
low stress drop. However, this stress drop may be incomplete, implying that some The Washoe Shear Zone, Reno Basin, Nevada
stored stress may remain for larger events. We are unable to produce a model event BRIGGS, R. W., Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden, CO, rbriggs@
consistent with the 1923 San Bernardino earthquake; this, along with damage and usgs.gov; DEPOLO, C. M., Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology, Reno, NV,
felt reports, suggests that the 1923 event may not have ruptured the San Jacinto eq_dude@sbcglobal.net; GOLD, R. D., Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden,
Fault. Using a higher stress drop, we are able to produce model ruptures that match CO, rgold@usgs.gov; REITMAN, N., Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden,
the average ˜2.5 m slip per event on the entire Claremont strand. An even higher CO, nreitman@usgs.gov
stress drop has proven necessary to match the average ˜3 m slip per event on the full
The strike-slip tectonics of the Walker Lane belt are poorly understood in the
Clark strand.
Reno, Nevada region. The largest earthquake in recent history (2008 Mw 5
Mogul event) had northwest-directed, nearly pure right-lateral strike-slip motion,
Paleoseismic Evidence for the System-Level Coordination of Large in good agreement with geodetic models that suggest 0.6 ± 0.2 mm/yr of NW-
Earthquakes, Strain “Super-Cycles”, and Temporally Variable Fault Strength: directed shear strain is accumulating across the basin. Prevailing tectonic models,
Behavior of the Garlock-Saf-Ecsz System in Southern California however, place active deformation on north-striking normal faults in this area.
DOLAN, J. F., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, dolan@ We are re-evaluating the Quaternary fault systems in the Reno Basin using field-
usc.edu; MCAULIFFE, L. J., USC & Conocophillips, Los Angeles, CA & based reconnaissance mapping, detailed topographic maps derived from RTK GPS,
Anchorage, AK, lmcaulif@usc.edu; RHODES, E. J., UCLA & University of mapping based on low-sun angle airphotos, airborne lidar data, and digital elevation
Sheffield, Los Angleles, CA & Sheffield, UK, erhodes@ess.ucla.edu; MCGILL, models derived from historical (1948) airphotos. We have identified a series of
S. F., Cal State University, San Bernardino, CA, smcgill@csusb.edu; SAMMIS, NW-striking fault scarps and related features that extend over 16 km from the
C. G., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, sammis@usc.edu Steamboat Hills, northwestward across the Mt. Rose fan and potentially through
the northern end of the Carson Range into the Mogul earthquake area. This
The basic controls on the occurrence of large earthquakes in space and time zone is collectively called the Washoe shear zone. Geomorphic features consistent
remain poorly understood. In particular, the relative importance and potential with right-oblique displacement on the Mt. Rose fan include linear and uphill-
causes of emergent behaviors such as earthquake clustering, transient strain facing fault scarps, laterally offset stream channels and margins, left-stepping scarps
accrual and release, and the potentially coordinated waxing and waning of slip and lineaments, fault-bound ridges, springs, and vegetation lineaments. Along
on mechanically complementary fault systems are neither readily explained by the northern Carson Range rangefront, escarpments in Quaternary alluvium and
our present understanding of earthquake mechanics nor accounted for in current colluvium along previously mapped northwest-striking bedrock faults and stream
seismic hazard analyses. Yet there is increasing evidence suggestive of a wide capture and deflections may indicate late Quaternary faulting. The 2008 Mogul
range of coordinated behaviors, including clustering of large earthquakes on single earthquake occurred along the northern part of the Washoe shear zone, where
faults and regional fault networks, as well as large temporal variations in slip NW-striking faults bound uplifted granitic bedrock hills that disrupt the Miocene
rate spanning multiple earthquake cycles. For example, new incremental slip basin sediments. These observations suggest that distributed, poorly-expressed

on 09 October 2018
strike-slip systems in the basins of the Walker Lane accommodate regional shear, Is the Co-seismic Slip Distribution Fractal?
and moreover, represent an underappreciated contribution to seismic hazard in the MILLINER, C. W. D., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA,
region. milliner@usc.edu; SAMMIS, C., University of Southern California, Los Angeles,
CA, sammis@usc.edu; ALLAM, A., University of Alaska Fairbanks?, Fairbanks,
AK, aaallam@alaska.edu; DOLAN, J. F., University of Southern California,
Lidar Analysis of the Structurally Mature Wairau and Immature Awatere Los Angeles, CA, dolan@usc.edu; HOLLINGSWORTH, J., ARUP, London,
Faults, New Zealand: Evidence for Progressive Geomorphic Manifestation of United Kingdom, hollingsworth.jc@gmail.com
Distributed Deformation and Structural Localization During Fault Slip
ZINKE, R., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, rzinke@usc.edu; Along-strike slip variability is widely observed for many surface-rupturing events
DOLAN, J. F., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, as revealed by field and high-resolution geodetic measurements. However, co-
dolan@usc.edu; GRENADER, J. R., University of Southern California, seismic slip variability remains a poorly understood phenomenon. Key unanswered
Los Angeles, CA, grenader@usc.edu; VAN DISSEN, R., GNS Science, questions include: What are the characteristics and underlying causes of slip
Lower Hutt, New Zealand, R.VanDissen@gns.cri.nz; RHODES, E. J., variability? Do the properties of slip variability change from fault-to-fault or
University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom, Ed.Rhodes@sheffield.ac.uk; at different scales? Using the program COSI-Corr to measure the surface
MCGUIRE, C. P., University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, deformation of the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers and 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector Mine
mcguire.cp@gmail.com; LANGRIDGE, R. M., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New earthquakes in high-resolution, we produce the co-seismic slip profiles from
Zealand, R.Langridge@gns.cri.nz; NICOL, A., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New over 1,000 displacement measurements from each event and observe consistent
Zealand, A.Nicol@gns.cri.nz; HATEM, A. E., University of Southern California, along-strike slip variability. A spectral analysis reveals that the slip distributions
Los Angeles, CA, a.hatem@usc.edu are indeed self-affine fractal, i.e., slip exhibits a consistent degree of irregularity
at all observable length scales, with a ‘short-memory’ and is not random. We
We use high-resolution lidar topographic data to examine patterns of surface find a fractal dimension of 1.58 and 1.75 for the Landers and Hector Mine
faulting expressed in flights of geologically identical, similar-aged fluvial terraces earthquakes, respectively, indicating that slip is more variable for the Hector Mine
at the well-known Branch River and Saxton River sites along the Wairau (Alpine) event. Fractal slip is consistent with both dynamic and quasi-static numerical
and Awatere faults, South Island, New Zealand. The fault-related damage patterns simulations that use non-planar faults, and we attribute the observed fractal slip
expressed in the topography at these sites show that faulting along the higher- to fault surfaces of fractal roughness. As fault surfaces are known to smooth over
displacement (470 km), structurally hyper-mature Wairau fault is significantly geologic time due to abrasional wear and fracturing, we also test whether the
less structurally complex (i.e., straighter and narrower) than along the Awatere fractal properties of slip distributions varies between earthquakes from immature
fault (˜17-20 km total slip). This provides direct evidence that faulting becomes to mature fault systems. We will present results that test this hypothesis by
structurally simpler as a function of increasing cumulative geologic offset. We using the optical image correlation technique to measure historic, co-seismic slip
also examine the degree to which distributed, off-fault deformation (OFD) is distributions of earthquakes on structurally mature, large cumulative displacement
expressed in the landscape at the Saxton River site along the less structurally faults, and compare these slip distributions to those from immature fault
mature Awatere fault. Significantly greater amounts of OFD are discernible as systems. Our observations have fundamental implications for understanding the
a wide damage zone (˜500 m fault-perpendicular width) in the older, more- behavior of the rupture process, as well as for paleoseismic reconstructions of slip
displaced (64 to 74 m) fluvial terrace treads than in the younger, less-displaced profiles.
terraces; no OFD is discernible in the lidar data on the least-displaced (< 35 m)
terraces. From this, we infer that OFD becomes progressively more geomorphically
apparent over multiple earthquake cycles. These observations imply that: (1) the
processes that accommodate OFD are active during each earthquake, but may Advances in High-frequency Ground Motion and
not be evident in deposits that have experienced relatively small displacements; Attenuation
(2) structures accommodating OFD will become progressively geomorphically
clearer with increasing displacement; (3) geomorphic measurements of overall Oral Session · Wednesday · 8:30 AM · 22 April · Ballroom G
fault zone width taken in deposits that have experienced small displacements Session Chairs: Olga-Joan Ktenidou, Norman A.
will be underestimates; and (4) because additional fault slip is accommodated as Abrahamson, Kim Bak Olsen and Ralph Archuleta
OFD, fault slip rates based on geomorphic surface offsets will be underestimates
for immature faults if based solely on measurements along the high-strain fault
core. High Frequency Seismic Hazard Estimation and Impacts on Seismic
Performance Evaluation for Dams
MUTO, M., Southern California Edison, Rosemead, CA, matthew.
Refining the Magnitude of Shallow Slip Deficit
muto@sce.com; DURON, Z., Harvey Mudd College, Claremont, CA,
XU, X., University of California, San Diego, San Diego, CA,
ziyad_duron@hmc.edu
xix016@ucsd.edu; TONG, X., University of Washington, Seattle, Seattle, WA,
xitong@u.washington.edu; SANDWELL, D. T., University of California, San Southern California Edison (SCE) Dam & Public Safety has adopted a risk-
Diego, San Diego, CA, dsandwell@ucsd.edu; MILLINER, C. W. D., University informed approach to decisions regarding its large hydropower dams in the Sierra
of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, milliner@usc.edu; DOLAN, J. Nevada Mountains. For many concrete dams, this requires a better understanding
F., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, dolan@usc.edu; of both the estimation of high-frequency (5 - 20 Hz, or even higher in some
LEPRINCE, S., California Institute of Technology, Los Angeles, CA, cases) ground motions and high-frequency structural behavior. In recent seismic
leprincs@caltech.edu; AYOUB, F., California Institute of Technology, hazard evaluations of dams located on rock sites, SCE has used amplification
Los Angeles, CA, fayoub@gps.caltech.edu factors associated with the shallow crustal damping factor kappa. It became
immediately apparent that selection of kappa has a huge impact on seismic
Geodetic inversions with slip versus depth for several major (Mw>7) strike-slip
hazard estimates of high-frequency motions. SCE collaborated with PEER to
earthquakes (e.g. 1992 Landers, 1999 Hector Mine, 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah)
obtain site-specific estimates of kappa that greatly changed our understanding
show a 10% to 60% reduction in slip near surface (depth < 2 km) compared to
of ground motions compared to initial analyses using assumed values of kappa,
the slip at deeper depths (4 to 6 km). This has been named as the shallow slip
indicating the value of collecting region-specific kappa values rather than just
deficit (SSD). The large magnitude of this deficit has been an enigma since it
using a kappa value based on the correlation of kappa and VS30. We show
cannot be explained by shallow creep during the interseismic period or by triggered
examples of how the changes in the high-frequency spectrum for different kappa
slip from nearby earthquakes. One potential explanation for the SSD is that the
values affects the structural response and the evaluation of the performance of
previous geodetic inversions used incomplete data that do not go close to fault
concrete dams, and how new field testing techniques confirm the importance of
so the shallow portions of the slip models were poorly resolved and generally
high-frequency ground motions to understanding seismic performance of these
underestimated. In this study we improve the geodetic inversion, especially at
structures.
shallow depth by: 1) refining the InSAR processing with non-boxcar phase
filtering, model-dependent range corrections, more complete phase unwrapping
by SNAPHU assuming a maximum discontinuity; 2) including near-fault offset Modeling the Distance Dependence of Spectral Amplitude and the Spectral
data from optical imagery and SAR azimuth offsets; 3) using more detailed fault Decay Parameter (“kappa”) in Synthetic Seismograms by Controlling the
geometry; 4) and using additional campaign GPS data. We refined the evaluation Depth and Frequency Dependence of Q
on these three earthquakes and come to conclusion the SSD in previous study is ANDERSON, J. G., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, jga.seismo@gmail.com;
overestimated. YAGODA-BIRAN, G., Geological Survey of Israel, Jerusalem, Israel, gonyb@

on 09 October 2018
gsi.gov.il; MCBEAN, K., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, kmcbean@unr. and the distance to the earthquake source, and present examples of the possible
edu effect of such scatter in simulated ground motion. Finally, we compare this scatter
with observed variability from Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs).
Realistic models to generate synthetic strong motion accelerograms at short
distances, for the purpose of engineering applications, should ideally reproduce
the distance-dependence of the shape and amplitude of the Fourier amplitude Incremental Site Attenuation from Garner Valley Array Recordings
spectrum, including the evolution of spectral shape throughout the entire duration KOTTKE, A. R., Bechtel, San Francisco, CA, albert.kottke@gmail.com;
of the seismogram. As a part of the SCEC Broadband Platform effort and related HASHEMI, A., Bechtel, San Francisco, CA, sahashem@bechtel.com
projects, this study seeks to achieve this objective in the context of synthetic
seismograms generated using a frequency-wavenumber algorithm in a flat-layered Seismologists have characterized the high-frequency attenuation of very low
velocity structure. This presentation will focus particularly on modeling the intensity recorded ground motions using the site attenuation parameter (κ0) as
spectral decay parameter (κ), which characterizes the first-order shape of the proposed by Anderson and Hough (1988). In site response studies, κ0 can be
Fourier amplitude of acceleration, above the corner frequency as expˆ{-π*κ*f}. separated into two components: 1) the reference rock condition for a ground
The average distance-dependence of κ, and it’s zero-distance value (κ0 ), can motion model (κ0,ref), and 2) the site column portion (Δκ0), where κ0 = κ0,ref
be modeled in the context of an ω −2 source spectrum combined with low + Δκ0. For 1D wave propagation, the Δκ0 is related to characteristics of the
values of Q in shallow layers, consistent with those measured by Assimaki et site profile, specifically the wave travel time (i.e., shear-wave velocity) and the
al. (2008), coupled with very high values of Q in the crustal waveguide, as small-strain damping. Previous studies have used borehole arrays to investigate
proposed for instance by Hough and Anderson (1998). This presentation will the behavior of κ0 and Δκ0, and these studies have focused on leveraging large
discuss how to reconcile these calculations with independent observations of Q, numbers of observations. Instead, this study will focus on the Garner Valley
and show examples of the application of this model in California, Israel, and Array (GVA) is located narrow valley within the Peninsular Ranges of Southern
Japan. California. The array site includes multiple instruments within the 88 m of
silty sand and weathered granite with additional instrumentation that penetrate
Kappa Issues and Correlations: Insights from NGA Rock Sites intact granite to depth of 501 m below the ground surface. The extensive site
KTENIDOU, O. J., Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, olga. characterization and instrumentation offers a unique ability to measure the Δκ0
at a site profile and identify how the ground motion is attenuated through the site
ktenidou@ujf-grenoble.fr; ABRAHAMSON, A. N., Pacific Gas & Electric, San
profile. This study evaluates how Δκ0 changes with depth and ground motion
Francisco, CA, abrahamson@berkeley.edu
intensity using time series recorded at the GVA. The Δκ0 will be compared with
In May 2013, the NGA-West2 project published a flatfile for data from shallow estimates of Δκ0 established from small-strain damping, which govern Δκ0 in
active regions worldwide. In October 2014, the NGA-East project published a geotechnical site response analyses.
similar flatfile for data from Central-Eastern North America. Those data are
important for the creation or updating of current ground motion prediction
models (GMPEs). In future, however, it is likely that GMPEs may incorporate Amplitude Modeling in the Explosion Monitoring World
additional parameters. Firstly, Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) may allow a better PHILLIPS, W. S., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM; FISK,
fit to the data than response spectra. Secondly, it may be possible to better describe M. D., ATK, Newington, VA; STEAD, R. J., Los Alamos National Laboratory,
high-frequency ground response by accounting for κ0, i.e. the site-specific high- Los Alamos, NM, stead@lanl.gov; BEGNAUD, M. L., Los Alamos National
frequency attenuation factor of Anderson and Hough (1984). The first part of Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, mbegnaud@lanl.gov; YANG, X., Los Alamos
this contribution describes κ0 estimation for NGA sites, focusing on hard rock National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, xyang@lanl.gov; BALLARD, S., Sandia
(Vs30>1900 m/s), short-distance records. For rock sites, the knowledge of κ0 is National Laboratory, Albuquerque, NM, sballar@sandia.gov
particularly critical in view of updating existing GMPEs to better capture high-
frequency site response, and also in view of adjusting them to regions with different The explosion monitoring community develops theory and techniques to locate,
κ0 conditions. Despite the known importance of κ0, current approaches for discriminate, and characterize sources of small seismic signals. High frequency
GMPE adjustments assume all of the measured κ0 is due to attenuation. The amplitudes, in particular, are used for discrimination and yield estimation.
second part of this contribution raises the concern that the total κ0 measured Amplitude models feature attenuation and site terms, and source spectra are
from records may incorporate additional effects that are not directly related to determined by the tomographic imaging procedure. These results may be of
attenuation, but which may affect the apparent measured values. Such effects interest to the Hazards community, keeping in mind the following points: site
include shallow site resonances, stress drop, and other factors. This may cause terms represent small motions as we ignore non-linear effects, site terms are
overestimation of the actual attenuation effect on ground motion, and lead to biased towards competent sites, Q results are currently phase based and represent
possible overcorrections in GMPE adjustments. This notion is exemplified by average crustal or upper mantle properties without regard to their distribution
the study of GMPE within-event residuals (δW) against κ0 values computed in with depth, and earthquakes are parameterized with simple time function, omega-
different ways: following the classical approach (κ0_AS ), and the inverse random 2 models. Data processing for input to tomography includes quality control and
vibration theory approach (κ0_IRV T ). The stronger dependency of the residuals stacking based on relative channel site effects, relative site terms within station
on κ0_IRV T indicates that κ0_AS may include additional effects. clusters, and relative source terms for event clusters. For current global models,
stacking procedures yield 2596 40-km station clusters, and 14,032 60-km event
clusters from which we produce 1.6 million summary amplitudes. Tomographic
On the Use and Misuse of "Kappa" in the Stochastic Simulation of Ground inversion includes source constraints from independently determined moments
Motion: Example Applications Using the EUROSEISTEST Database Records and corner frequencies. Data coverage is best for Eurasia and North America
ROUMELIOTI, Z., Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece, and our variable grid (http://www.sandia.gov/geotess) reduces to ¡◦ in those
zroum@auth.gr; KTENIDOU, O. J., Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German areas. 2-D maps show that Q is highly correlated with regional geology and heat
Res. Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany and ISTerre, Grenoble, France, flow. Anisotropic effects can be strong in certain areas. Stress drop patterns are
olga.ktenidou@ujf-grenoble.fr; ABRAHAMSON, N. A., Pacific Gas & Electric, clouded by high scatter, but small scale (1-200 km) variations are visible. Lateral
San Francisco, CA, abrahamson@berkeley.edu; PITILAKIS, K., Aristotle Q changes may only be important to hazards work under extreme conditions at
University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece, kpitilak@auth.gr; COTTON, short distance ranges; however, we have seen interest from the community in the
F., Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Res. Centre for Geosciences, high-resolution maps of low versus high Q regions, likely driven by regulatory
Potsdam, Germany, fabrice.cotton@gfz.potsdam.de considerations.
Kappa (κ) has always been an important input parameter in most codes commonly
used for the stochastic simulation of strong ground motion. It is the one parameter The Importance of Incorporating a Variable Q Model in Ground Motion
controlling the decay of the high-frequency part of the seismic spectrum and, Prediction Equations
although still debated, it is most frequently related to the site. In the present study, PASYANOS, M. E., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA,
we use the lower-magnitude earthquake records in the EUROSEISTEST database pasyanos1@llnl.gov; PITARKA, A., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,
(http://euroseisdb.civil.auth.gr) to compute site-specific κ and then predict larger- Livermore, CA, pitarka1@llnl.gov; BALTAY, A. S., US Geological Survey, Menlo
magnitude earthquake records through stochastic simulations. We emphasize the Park, CA, abaltay@usgs.gov; ABRAHAMSON, N. A., Pacific Gas and Electric,
proper use of κ when it is combined with empirical transfer functions that San Francisco, CA, abrahamson@berkeley.edu
have resulted from Standard Spectral Ratios (SSR) or Horizontal-to-Vertical
Spectral Ratios (HVSR), as these functions already include part of the κ effect. Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) can be significantly improved
Furthermore, we discuss the scatter in κ measurements in relation to the site class by including the effect of anelasticity and scattering through the use of path-

on 09 October 2018
specific attenuation, particularly at long distances (Pasyanos, 2015). Currently, absorption play an important role if the ballistic tail is included in the analysis
most GMPEs predict ground motion given only the source-to-site distance and window. An appropriate choice of coda window should therefore facilitate the
large-scale regional adjustments (i.e. California vs. Taiwan). Over the past several independent mapping of absorption and scattering. In the case of absorption, we
years, we have developed lithospheric attenuation models for North America and find that the Qc kernel possesses both negative and positive sensitivity zone, the
other regions of the world from 0.5 Hz up to >10 Hz, using weak ground motions. latter being concentrated around the direct ray path. Our results clarify the physical
These models allow us to adjust 1-D GMPEs developed for broad regions and interpretation of Qc and lay the groundwork for an absorption tomography based
make them more applicable by taking into account the specific high-frequency on the decay of coda waves. References: Aki, K., & Chouet, B. (1975). Origin of
attenuation appropriate for specific host-to-target paths. In this work, we briefly coda waves: source, attenuation, and scattering effects. J. Geophys. Res., 80, 3322-
discuss the development of our multi-phase attenuation method that inverts for 3342. Mayor, J., Margerin, L. & Calvet, M. (2014). Sensitivity of coda waves to
the Qp and Qs structure of the crust and upper mantle. We highlight the large- spatial variations of absorption and scattering : radiative transfer theory and 2-D
scale differences between, for example, the central and eastern US (CEUS), and examples, Geophys. J. Int., 197, 1117-1137.
the western US (WUS), as well as the large variations within these regions. We
consider, for instance, how the large attenuation contrast between onshore and
offshore earthquakes can affect observed ground motions. We then use observed Estimation of Quality Factor in the Caribbean Region Using Lg -wave
ground motions from the 2014 M6.0 Napa earthquake to demonstrate that Attenuation
even the smaller differences between the attenuation of northern and southern HAJI-SOLTANI, A., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, hjsltani@
California, which are easy to incorporate, can result in improved ground motion memphis.edu; PEZESHK, S., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, spezeshk@
estimates, and potentially reduce the variability of these predicted ground motions. memphis.edu; HOSSEINI, M., URS Corporation, Los Angeles, CA, mehrdad.
Hazard sensitivity studies have shown that path effects are the largest contributor hosseini@urs.com; CHAPMAN, M., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State
to epistemic uncertainty for hazard at low probability levels required for critical University, Blacksburg, VA, mcc@vt.edu
structures in regions with mature source models such as California.
The frequency-dependent quality factor for the Caribbean region is estimated
using the L g portion of waveforms from 116 earthquakes. Considered earthquakes
Lg Attenuation of the Contiguous United States have moment magnitude ranging from 4.6 to 7.0 which were occurred between
GALLEGOS, A. C., New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, 2006 and 2013. Waveforms with a signal-to-noise ratio of 5 or better were used
agall@nmsu.edu; RANASINGHE, N. R., New Mexico State University, Las and their Fourier amplitudes were derived at 12 distinct frequency bands (0.1 to
Cruces, NM, nrana001@nmsu.edu; NI, J. F., New Mexico State University, Las 12.8 Hz). Only events with hypocentral distances greater than 100 km are used
Cruces, NM, jni@nmsu.edu; SANDVOL, E., University of Missouri, Columbia, and a spectral amplitude decay of R −0.5 is assumed for geometrical spreading
MO, sandvole@nmsu.edu; HEARN, T., New Mexico State University, Las function. The geometric mean of the horizontal components of the records and the
Cruces, NM vertical components are processed separately in the regression model to estimate
Q H (f) and Q V (f). Quality factor values for horizontal components are estimated
Lg waveforms recorded by EarthScope’s Transportable Array (TA) are used as Q H = 310 f 0.54 and for vertical components are estimated as Q V = 235 f 0.65 .
to estimate Lg attenuation in the contiguous United States. In particular, Lg Estimated quality factor values for the Caribbean region are close to those reported
attenuation is determined using filtered Lg spectral amplitudes. These amplitudes by McNamara et al. (2012).
are filtered at several bandwidths in order to determine the frequency dependence
of Q. The two-station and reverse two-station techniques are used to calculate the
Q values. Approximately 451 events occurring from 2005 to 2014 and ranging k0: The Role of Intrinsic and Scattering Attenuation
from magnitude 3 to magnitude 6 are used in this study. The geometric spreading PAROLAI, S., Helmholtz Center Potsdam , Potsdam, Germany, parolai@gfz-
term can be determined by using a three-dimensional linear fit of the amplitude potsdam.de; BINDI, D., Helmholtz Center Potsdam , Potsdam, Germany,
ratios versus epicentral distances to two stations. The slope of this line provides bindi@gfz-potsdam.de; PILZ, M., Helmholtz Center Potsdam , Potsdam,
the geometric spreading term value that we use to calculate the Lg Q values. The Germany, pilz@gfz-potsdam.de
relative site responses, which can be used to improve hazard estimates, are also
determined. These site responses can be determined using the reverse two-station Knowledge of the acceleration spectral shape is important for the prediction of
method. A positive correlation between high heat flow, recent tectonic activity, ground motion. At high frequencies, the rapid decrease of the spectral amplitude,
strain rate and Q is observed. Areas with low heat flow, thin sediment cover, which controls the peak values, has been modelled by the spectral decay factor
and no recent tectonic activity are observed to have consistently high Q. The k, allowing an estimate of the apparent attenuation and which constitutes today
Gulf Coastal Plain acts as a boundary that effectively blocks the Lg propagation. a basic input parameter for the generation of stochastic ground motion and
We think the cause of the blockage could be due to S wave leakage into the the calibration of ground motion prediction equations. Based on numerical
mantle near the coast, where the crust thins drastically. Our new Lg attenuation simulations of ground motion, we investigate the role of intrinsic and scattering
models provide a comparison with previous studies and better constrain regions attenuation in determining the high-frequency decay of earthquake-induced
with high attenuation. These new attenuation constraints and site response values ground motion. We show that the attenuation term related to scattering depends
will help to improve high frequency ground motion predictions for future large non-linearly on the intrinsic one, meaning that the commonly used explanation
earthquakes and improve overall understanding of the structure and assemblage of for the high-frequency decay spectrum parameter might not be appropriate when
North America. analyzing signal windows of several seconds’ width.
Broadband (0–8 Hz) Ground Motion Variability From Ensemble Simulations of

CODA Quality Factor (Qc) Sensitivity Kernels in Scattering and Absorbing the 1994 Mw 6.7 Northridge Earthquake Including Rough Fault Descriptions
Media and Q(f)
MAYOR, J., Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France, Jessie.Mayor@ WITHERS, K. B., San Diego State University/ University of California San
irap.omp.eu; MARGERIN, L., Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France, Diego, San Diego, CA, quantumkylew@aol.com; OLSEN, K. B., San Diego State
Ludovic.Margerin@irap.omp.eu; CALVET, M., Université de Toulouse, University, San Diego, CA, kbolsen@mail.sdsu.edu; SHI, Z., San Diego State
Toulouse, France, Marie.Calvet@irap.omp.eu University, San Diego, CA, zshi@mail.sdsu.edu; DAY, S. M., San Diego State
University, San Diego, CA, sday@mail.sdsu.edu
Since its introduction by Aki and Chouet (1975), the coda quality factor of
shear waves has become a very popular parameter to characterize the attenuation With the recent addition of realistic fault topography in 3D simulations of
properties of the crust worlwide. In spite of this success, the physical interpretation earthquake source models, ground motion can be deterministically calculated
of Qc has remained controversial. In particular, the connection between this more realistically up to higher frequencies. However, the earthquake source is not
empirical parameter and the scattering and absorption properties of the lithosphere the only source of complexity in the high-frequency ground motion; there are
has not been fully clarified yet. Elaborating upon the recent work of Mayor et also scattering effects caused by small-scale velocity and density heterogeneities
al. (2014), we use radiative transfer theory to calculate scattering and absorption in the medium that can affect the ground motion intensity. Here, we model
sensitivity kernels of the coda quality factor Qc in 2 dimensions. The calculation of dynamic rupture propagation for blind thrust scenario earthquakes matching
these kernels requires the complete knowledge of the spatial, temporal and angular the fault geometry of the 1994 Mw 6.7 Northridge earthquake up to 8 Hz
dependence of the energy flux, which is obtained by analytical and/or numerical using a support operator method (SORD). We extend the ground motion up
solution of the radiative transfer equation. The role of the time window defining to 50 km from the fault by converting the output to a kinematic source for the
the coda is investigated in details. Preliminary results indicate that the value of Qc finite difference anelastic wave propagation code AWP-ODC, which incorporates
is mostly controlled by absorption at long lapse time, while both scattering and frequency-dependent attenuation via a power law above a reference frequency in

on 09 October 2018
the form Q0fn. We model the region surrounding the fault with and without small- GMPEs shows similar fall-off with distance for all three models and GMPEs, with
scale medium complexity, with varying statistical parameters, in both a 1D layered comparable amplitudes for the physics-based and stochastic site-based models, and
model characteristic of southern California and a 3D medium extracted from the systematically lower amplitudes for the stochastic source-based model.
SCEC CVM-S4. We compare our synthetic ground motions with GMPEs and
find that the spectral acceleration at various periods from our models are within Open Discussion on High-frequency Ground Motion and Attenuation: Moving
1 interevent standard deviation from the median GMPEs. We model additional Forward
realizations of the scenario by varying the hypocenter location in the dynamic ABRAHAMSON, N. A., Pacific Gas & Electric, San Francisco, CA,
rupture simulations. We analyze the aleatory variability by calculating the inter- abrahamson@berkeley.edu; KTENIDOU, O. J., Helmholtz Centre Potsdam,
event and intra-event variance of the resulting ground motion. Our results for the Potsdam, Germany, olga.ktenidou@ujf-grenoble.fr; OLSEN, K. B., San Diego
rough-fault simulations show that the intra-event variability of our simulations State University, San Diego, CA, kbolsen@mail.sdsu.edu; ARCHULETA, R. J.,
in the CVM is typically larger than that for the observations. However, this University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, ralph@eri.ucsb.edu
discrepancy tends to decrease when small-scale heterogeneity in the medium is
included in the simulations, suggesting the need for a highly complex velocity The final slot of our session will host an open discussion with questions, comments,
model to fit ground motion variability. thoughts, as well as priorities for the future: how do we move forward in what
concerns attenuation at high frequencies?
Inclusion of Nonstationary Coda in Time and Frequency for Computing
Synthetic Ground Motions from Earthquake Scenarios
CREMPIEN, J. G. F., University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, Engineering Seismology and Ground Motion Prediction
crempien@ucsb.edu; ARCHULETA, R. J., University of California, Santa
Barbara, CA, ralph@eri.ucsb.edu Oral Session · Wednesday · 3:45 PM · 22 April · Ballroom G
Session Chairs: Praveen Malhotra and Yousef Bozorgnia
At frequencies above 1Hz, ground motion is stochastic in nature due to
heterogeneities in the source process but also due to heterogeneities in the crust
that scatter seismic waves. The effect of scattering is clearly evident in the duration NGA-West2 Ground Motion Models for Vertical and Vertical-to-Horizontal
of ground motion produced by small magnitude earthquakes, where the source Response Spectra
duration is a second or less, but ground motion duration can last many seconds. BOZORGNIA, Y., PEER, UC, Berkeley, CA, yousef@berkeley.edu;
Duration is an important ground motion intensity measure for engineering CAMPBELL, K. W., CoreLogic EQECAT, Oakland, CA, kcampbell@
purposes. With efforts to use Fourier amplitude spectra as a metric for ground corelogic.com
motion prediction equations emphasizes the need to realistically model scattering
effects when computing ground motion for earthquake scenarios. Mayeda and We developed a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for the vertical
Walters (1996) show that at different frequency bands, the coda energy envelopes components of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV),
exhibit different durations. We make use of these observed coda properties to and 5%-damped elastic pseudo-absolute acceleration response spectral ordinates
simulate synthetic scatterograms based on the theory of sigma oscillatory processes (PSA) at vertical periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 sec. In the development of
(Priestley, 1965). This model assumes that a stochastic signal can be represented this GMPE, we used the extensive PEER NGA-West2 ground motion database
as a nonstationary process both in time and frequency. We add stochastic coda recorded in shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic domains. We also
realizations to our Green’s functions after the first S-arrival, where the synthetic developed GMPE for the vertical-to-horizontal (V/H) ratio. The V/H model
envelopes are chosen depending on the distance and frequency band. With these includes the median prediction of the V/H ratio and its aleatory within-event,
modified Green’s functions, we use the representation theorem to compute ground between event, and total standard deviations. Both vertical and V/H ground
motion with the UCSB method (Schmedes et al., 2013; Crempien and Archuleta, motion models incorporate period-dependent magnitude saturation, style-of-
2015). We validated our synthetic ground motion model by computing the bias faulting effects, hypocentral depth and fault dip effects, geometric attenuation,
between spectral acceleration of recorded and synthetic ground motions for the regionally dependent anelastic attenuation and site response, hanging-wall effects,
1994 Northridge earthquake. Our results show negligible bias in both period and magnitude-dependent between-event and within-event aleatory variability.
and distance. We also computed evolutionary Arias intensity and cumulative Both vertical and V/H ground motion models are considered valid for worldwide
absolute velocity (CAV). The least squares value between recorded and synthetic shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic domains for magnitudes ranging
evolutionary measures is small, which indicates that our model replicates well from 3.3 to as large as 8.5, depending on the style of faulting, and distances as far as
ground motion duration at different distances from the fault. 300 km from the source. Summary results and characteristics of these two ground-
motion models are presented.
Ground Motion Simulation for the August 23, 2011, Mineral, Virginia
Earthquake Using Physics-Based and Stochastic Broadband Methods Vertical GMPEs Based on the NGA-W2 Database
REZAEIAN, S., USGS, Golden, CO, srezaeian@usgs.gov; HARTZELL, S., GULERCE, Z., METU, Ankara Turkey, zyilmaz@metu.edu.tr; KAMAI,
USGS, Golden, CO, shartzell@usgs.gov; SUN, X., USGS, Golden, CO, R., Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Israel, rkamai@bgu.ac.il;
xsun@usgs.gov ABRAHAMSON, N. A., Pacific Gas & Electric Company, San Francisco,
CA, abrahamson@berkeley.edu; SILVA, W. J., Pacific Engineering and Analysis,
The Mw 5.8 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake on August 23, 2011 is one of the largest El Cerrito, CA, pacificengineering@juno.com
instrumentally recorded earthquakes in the central and eastern U.S. (CEUS). Since
recorded ground motions for moderate to large magnitude events are rare in CEUS, Empirical ground-motion models for the vertical component from shallow crustal
simulations can be of great utility in this region. We use three different broadband earthquakes in active tectonic regions are derived using the PEER NGA-West2
simulation methods to develop models and generate synthetic ground motions for database. The model is applicable to magnitudes 3.0-8.5, distances 0-300 km,
the Mineral earthquake and compare our results with the observed recordings. and spectral periods of 0.01-10 sec. The model input parameters are the same as
The methods include a physics-based model by Hartzell et al. (2005), a stochastic used by Abrahamson et al. (2014) with the following exceptions: the nonlinear
site-based model by Rezaeian and Der Kiureghian (2012), and a stochastic source- site response and depth to the bedrock effects are not incorporated. Regional
based model by Boore (2009). Our ground motion dataset consists of 40 stations differences in large distance attenuation and site amplification scaling between
within 23 to 600 km of the epicenter. Several approaches are used to validate California, Japan, China, Taiwan and Italy are included. The scaling for the
the simulations including: 1) comparison of time-series characteristics; 2) overall hanging-wall effect is improved using constraints from numerical simulations
bias of response spectra and Fourier spectra (from 0.1 to 10 Hz); 3) spatial by Donahue and Abrahamson (2014). The standard deviation is magnitude
distribution of residuals for peak ground acceleration and velocity, and spectral dependent with smaller magnitudes leading to larger standard deviations at short
ordinates at various periods; and 4) comparison with existing ground motion periods but smaller standard deviations at long periods.
prediction equations (GMPEs). Our results show that: 1) the physics-based model
produces realistic synthetic waveforms and provides satisfactory overall bias (0.1- Summary of Ground-motion Prediction Equations for Subduction Zones based
10 Hz); 2) the stochastic site-based model also yields realistic synthetic waveforms on Strong-motion Records from Japan
and performs best for higher frequencies (>1 Hz); 3) the stochastic source-based ZHAO, J. X., Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, China, j.zhao@
model has the largest bias at lower frequencies (<0.5 Hz) and cannot reproduce gns.cri.nz
the varying frequency content in the time domain. The spatial distribution of
residuals shows no obvious pattern with distance in the simulation bias, but Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) derived from strong-motion
there is some pattern with azimuth. The comparison between synthetics and records in Japan are presented. The earthquakes were divided into four tectonic

on 09 October 2018
categories: shallow crustal, upper mantle, subduction interface and subduction slab and the implications these decisions have on developers and homeowners. Several
events. They were classified using earthquake locations from ISC-EHB catalogue projects in the southern California area will be used as case studies.
for events before 2005 and mainly JMA catalogue for events since 2005 and a
new subducting interface model from Slab1.0 in the USGS website. The shallow
crustal and the upper mantle (SC-UM) events were combined as one group, and
a set of three GMPEs were derived for the SC-UM, subduction interface and Seismic Sources and Seismicity Studies
subduction slab events, respectively. The GMPEs were based on a set of simple
geometric attenuation functions. A linear magnitude scaling was adopted for large Oral Session · Wednesday · 8:30 AM · 22 April · Ballroom H
earthquakes with MW = 7.1, with the scaling rates for large events being much Session Chairs: Christine Ruhl and Vaclav Vavrycuk
smaller than those for the smaller events. The models included nonlinear site
terms, most of which did not vary from one model to another. The site terms
were site classes based on site period, and nonlinear site terms based on 1-D Two-Way Reverse-Time Imaging for Seismic Sources
modelling adjusted by GMPE elastic site terms were used. Most strong-motion NAKATA, N., Stanford University, Stanford, CA, nnakata@stanford.edu;
records in the dataset are from stations with a measured shear-wave profile down BEROZA, G. C., Stanford University, Stanford, CA, beroza@stanford.edu
to bedrock. A small number of strong-motion records are from strong-motion
stations with inferred site classes and we tested the effect of site information quality Location and characterization of seismic sources provides insight into the physics
by using/excluding the data from sites with inferred site class. The site information of earthquakes and fault zones. Time reversal is a powerful tool to image
quality made a significant difference for nearly all spectral periods. We modelled directly both earthquake location and mechanism. This technique assumes seismic
the effect of volcanic zones by using an anelastic attenuation coefficient applied velocities in the medium and propagates time reversed observations of ground
to a horizontal portion of the seismic wave travel distance (along a straight line motion at each receiver location. Assuming an accurate velocity model, and
between the closest point of a fault plane and a recording station) within volcanic adequate array aperture, the waves will focus at the source location. Because we
do not know the location and the origin time a priori, we need to scan the
zones. The attenuation rates through the volcanic zone differed significantly from
one GMPE model to another. entire 4D image (3D in space and 1D in time) to find focusing, which makes
reverse time migration computationally demanding. We propose a new approach
to reverse-time imaging that reduces the scanning dimensions from 4D to 3D
Normalized Response Spectrum of Ground Motion (no time). We first select one receiver as a reference and individually extrapolate
MALHOTRA, P. K., StrongMotions Inc., Sharon, MA, Praveen.Malhotra@ wavefields, we then cross-correlate the reference wavefields and back-projected
StrongMotions.com wavefields from all other receivers. This crosscorrelation creates another imaging
condition, and the focusing of the seismic wavefields occurs at the zero time lag
The response spectrum provides valuable information regarding the ground of the correlation. Through this approach, we can reduce the number of scanning,
motion. It allows an engineer to estimate forces and deformations in structures and hence the computational requirements, from 4D to 3D. An added benefit is
due to ground shaking. The spectral values at short-, intermediate- and long-
that this procedure mitigates unwanted side lobes generated by the conventional
periods correlate well with the peak ground acceleration PGA, peak ground time-reversal imaging. Our proposed imaging uses the conventional combination
velocity PGV, and peak ground displacement PGD, respectively. PGA, PGV and of time-reversed wavefields and reference wavefields, as is typically done in two-
PGD are the fundamental strong-motion parameters (intensity measures). The way imaging in reflection seismology, and we can interpret the imaging condition
response spectrum relative to PGA, PGV and PGD is known as the normalized as a extension of seismic interferometry. An added benefit is that, in contrast
response spectrum. In the past, the number of records has not been sufficient to conventional one-way time-reverse migration, two-way imaging has potential
to conclusively establish the normalized spectrum and to study its sensitivity to to be used to retrieve velocity information by using time and/or space lags of
various factors. In this study, the normalized spectrum is derived from 17,354
crosscorrelation similar to what is done in active-source imaging.
strong-motion records. It is shown that the shape of the normalized spectrum
is sensitive only to the normalized velocity PGV/(PGAPGD)1/2. For the same
normalized velocity, earthquake magnitude, distance, and local soil conditions
have practically no effect on the normalized spectrum. For the same normalized Persistent Seismicity at Sheldon National Wildlife Refuge, Northwest
velocity, the direction of motion (horizontal or vertical) has practically no effect Nevada
on the normalized spectrum. The shape of normalized spectrum is rooted in RUHL, C. J., Nevada Seismological Laboratory, Reno, NV, cruhl@unr.edu;
structural dynamics; hence it should be preserved in ground motion prediction SMITH, K. D., Nevada Seismological Laboratory, Reno, NV, ken@
equations. Keywords: strong-motion, response spectrum, normalized spectrum, seismo.unr.edu; KENT, G. M., Nevada Seismological Laboratory, Reno,
ground motion prediction equations NV, gkent@unr.edu; RENNIE, T., Nevada Seismological Laboratory, Reno, NV,
tom@seismo.unr.edu
Fault Rupture Hazard Investigations in California – Arguments in Favor of
Changing the Alquist-Priolo Act Long-duration, moderate magnitude (often M4–5) earthquake sequences are
GONZALEZ, T., Earth Consultants International, Santa Ana, CA, a common feature of seismicity in Nevada. These swarm sequences include
tgonzalez@earthconsultants.com foreshocks that gain in intensity leading to one or more larger events (e.g. M5.1
2008 Mogul earthquake sequence near urban Reno, NV; M4.7 2011 Hawthorne,
In California the hazard of surface fault rupture is generally addressed in NV earthquake sequence). They are distinct from mainshock sequences in Nevada
conformance with the Alquist-Priolo (AP) Earthquake Fault Zoning Act. Faults (e.g. M6.0 2008 Wells, NV; M5.1 2013 Columbus Marsh, NV) and elsewhere. The
that have moved in the Holocene are considered active. Habitable structures most recent swarm is the ongoing (as of Feb. 2015) sequence near the Sheldon
cannot straddle an active fault, or be within a given distance from the fault, National Wildlife Refuge in far northwest Nevada. This sequence began in Jul.
typically interpreted as 50 ft. Existing buildings on a fault cannot be modified if 2014 and has included (to-date) 157 and 15 earthquakes greater than magnitudes
the changes exceed 50% of the structure’s value. Although the law means well, 3 and 4, respectively. Moment tensor solutions have been determined for more
its implementation is often difficult or flawed, leading to conflict among the than 60 events. Poor station coverage limits the quality of locations, however,
involved parties, at great cost to the property owner, and with no clear benefit a temporary real-time site was installed in mid-November near the source area.
to the public’s health, safety and welfare. The level of risk permissible under the This deployment improved depth control. HypoDD relocations coupled with
AP Act is far more conservative than that applied to other natural hazards (e.g., moment tensor solutions suggest that the sequence involves normal motion on
100-yr flood zone), and the expected lifetime of buildings. Should a fault not one or more NNE-striking faults, consistent with splaying faults at the southern
likely to rupture for ˜3,000 or more yrs define the location of a building that will end of the Guano Valley fault zone. At least five sequences (including Sheldon)
be demolished in 50 to 100 yrs? The prescriptive nature of the AP Act means have been recorded along the western Basin and Range and Walker Lane regions
that all zoned Holocene faults are treated equally regardless of their recurrence since 2008. These sequences range in total moment magnitude from 2.9 to 5.3,
interval, earthquake history, and thus probability of rupturing during the lifetime with 28 to more than 4000 located events. The addition of temporary stations
of the proposed structure. Different mitigation standards are applied to faults for the three largest sequences was necessary for precise hypocenter locations and
within an AP Zone compared to unzoned active faults: for faults within an AP improved detection thresholds. The Sheldon earthquake sequence occurred in a
Zone, avoidance is the only permissible mitigation measure, whereas active faults rural area, but still provides a valuable dataset to investigate indicators of swarm
not within a zone, if investigated at all, may be mitigated through engineering behavior that can be provided to the public and emergency responders as activity
solutions. This talk will address several problems with the implementation of the progresses. We compare five sequences in Nevada with respect to earthquake rate
AP Act, from the establishment of the zones of required study by the State, to the changes, frequency-magnitude relations, moment tensor solutions, moment rates,
prescriptive interpretation of the law by practicing geologists and local reviewers, and spatial and temporal evolution.

on 09 October 2018
Large-Scale Analysis of Global Seismicity Data for High-Precision Event by the inversion were close to the principal fault planes delineated by foci clustering.
Location The overall friction on faults was estimated to be 0.75 and 0.85 for the central Crete
WALDHAUSER, F., Columbia University, Palisades, NY, felixw@ and West Bohemia data, respectively.
ldeo.columbia.edu; SCHAFF, D. P., Columbia University, Palisades, NY,
dschaff@ldeo.columbia.edu
We present results from our global-scale earthquake relocation effort using the
combined seismic archives of parametric data for the years 1964 to present from the Applications of Tsunami Science: Working with States
ISC and the USGS (EDR), and waveform data from IRIS. We employed iterative, and Communities to Improve Tsunami Resilience
multistep relocation procedures that initially correct for the large errors present Oral Session · Wednesday · 10:45 AM · 22 April · Ballroom H
in standard earthquake catalogs, followed by a simultaneous inversion of pick and
cross-correlation derived delay times formed from regional and teleseismic first and Session Chairs: Rick Wilson and Lori Dengler
later arriving phases. An efficient multi-scale double-difference (DD) algorithm
is used to solve for relative event locations to the precision of a few km or less,
Penultimate Predecessors of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami in Aceh,
while incorporating constraints on absolute hypocenter locations from catalogs
Sumatra: Stratigraphic, Archeological and Historical Evidence
such as EHB and GEM. We are building up a comprehensive correlation delay
SIEH, K., Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, sieh@ntu.edu.sg;
time database for all pairs of events that are within 100 km of their relocated
DALY, P., National University, Singapore, usppd@nus.edu.sg;
position. The current gDD catalog includes close to one million earthquakes,
MCKINNON, E. E., Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore,
equivalent to approximately 70% of the number of events initially selected for
uluneezen@gmail.com; PILARCZYK, J., Rutgers University, New Brunswick,
relocation. The relocations sharpen the view of seismicity in many active regions
NJ, jpilar@marine.rutgers.edu; CHIANG, H. W., Nanyang Technological
around the world, in particular along subduction zones where event density is
University, Singapore, hwchiang@ntu.edu.sg; HORTON, B., Rutgers
high, but also along mid-ocean ridges where existing hypocenters are especially
University, New Brunswick, NJ, bphorton@marine.rutgers.edu; RUBIN,
poorly located. For example, relocations along the Aleutian arc clearly delineate
C., Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, cmrubin@ntu.edu.sg; SHEN,
the subduction interface and reveal detailed seismicity structures within both the
C. C., National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, river@ntu.edu.tw; ISMAIL,
subducting and the overriding plates. The majority of correlated events along the
N., Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, Indonesia, nazlisma@yahoo.com;
arc locate within the middle part of the seismogenic zone, suggesting that brittle
VANE, C. British Geological Survey, Notthingham, UK, chv@bgs.ac.uk
failure near the up-dip and down-dip ends are more complex. The new data offers
the opportunity for investigating earthquake processes and fault structures along We present stratigraphic, archeological and historical evidence for two closely
entire plate boundaries at the ˜km scale, and provides a common framework that timed predecessors of the giant 2004 tsunami on the northern coast of Aceh,
facilitates analysis and comparisons of findings across different plate boundary northern Sumatra. This is the first direct evidence that a tsunami played a role
systems. in a 15th-century cultural hiatus along the northern Sumatran portion of the
maritime silk route. One seacliff exposure on the eastern side of the Lambaro
The Magnitude-Frequency Distribution of Bucaramanga Nest Seismicity and headlands reveals two beds of tsunamigenic coral rubble within a small alluvial fan.
its Relationship to the Mechanism of Intermediate-Depth Earthquakes Radiocarbon and Uranium-Thorium disequilibrium dates indicate emplacement
BARRETT, S. A., Stanford University, Stanford, CA, sabarrett@stanford.edu; of the coral rubble after 1344±3 CE. Another seacliff exposure, on the western
BEROZA, G. C., Stanford University, Stanford, CA, beroza@stanford.edu side of the peninsula, contains evidence of nearly continuous settlement from ˜
1240 to soon after 1366±3 CE, terminated by tsunami destruction. At both sites,
The Bucaramanga nest is a small region of intense seismicity in the Andean the tsunamis are likely coincident with sudden uplift of coral reefs above the Sunda
subduction zone beneath Colombia at ˜150-160 km depth. As with other megathrust 1394±2 CE, evidence for which has been published previously. The
intermediate-depth earthquakes, the depth of the nest poses a fundamental source tsunami (or tsunami pair) appears to have destroyed a vibrant port community and
problem: pressures and temperatures at these depths are too high to support led to the temporary re-centering of marine trade dominance to more protected
brittle-shear failure. Recent studies of earthquake scaling behavior suggested that locations farther east. Nonetheless, re-establishment of vibrant communities
these earthquakes are a result of thermal shear instability. The size distribution along the devastated coast within a century or so set the stage for the 2004
of this seismicity may offer another constraint on the physical mechanism. In disaster.
particular, we hypothesize that because the degree of thermal runaway is slip
dependent, there ought to be fewer small earthquakes than would occur under
dehydration embrittlement, which is the leading alternative mechanism and is Advisories for Earthquakes and Tsunamis: An Emergency Management
not slip dependent. We use the Colombian Seismic Network (RSNC) catalog to Perspective
examine this possibility and find that the number of earthquakes in the nest drops GOLTZ, J. D., California Office of Emergency Services (Retired), South Pasadena,
dramatically below M ˜2. The lack of small events could also be due to the limited CA
ability to detect events. We discriminate between these two possibilities using
A recent exchange of views in Seismological Research Letters regarding operational
a combination of the empirical subspace detection method (to create the most
earthquake forecasting (Jordan, 2013; Wang and Rogers, 2014; Jordan et al., 2014)
complete catalog of events possible) and probabilistic magnitude of completeness
highlighted the issue of appropriate response to anomalous seismic activity that
analysis (to determine how many events are missing due to incomplete detection).
may increase the probability of large damaging earthquakes, including earthquakes
that could generate tsunamis. The debate centers on whether scientists have a
Iterative Joint Inversion for Stress and Fault Orientations from Focal duty to issue short-term low-probability forecasts for large damaging events that
Mechanisms may follow various potential precursors such as earthquake swarms, moderate-size
VAVRYCUK, V., Institute of Geophysics, Prague, Czech Republic earthquakes, or slow slip events in subduction zones. Opponents contend that
public preparedness should not vary from day to day, that the public cannot be
Stress inversions from focal mechanisms require knowledge of which nodal plane expected to deal effectively with uncertainty or fluctuating forecasts, nor can such
is the fault. If such information is missing, and faults and auxiliary nodal planes forecasts provide effective guidance for mitigation actions such as the evacuation
are interchanged, the stress inversions can produce inaccurate results. It is shown of vulnerable buildings (Wang and Rogers; 2013). Proponents of operational
that the linear inversion method developed by Michael (1984) is reasonably forecasting contend that it is indeed a duty of scientists to “inform the decisions
accurate when retrieving the principal stress directions even when the selection that people and organizations make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for
of fault planes in focal mechanisms is incorrect. However, the shape ratio is more potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades” (Jordan
sensitive to the proper choice of the fault and substituting the faults by auxiliary etal., 2014). Further, proponents say that response to forecasts can vary along a
nodal planes introduces significant errors. This difficulty is removed by modifying broad spectrum of mitigation actions, that information vacuums can lead to ill-
Michael’s method and inverting jointly for stress and for fault orientations. The considered predictions and misinformation (as occurred in the L’Aquila situation)
fault orientations are determined by applying the fault instability constraint and and that the public is not as prone to maladaptive behavior as opponents suggest.
the stress is calculated in iterations. As a byproduct, overall friction on faults is The California Earthquake Advisory Plan has guided operational earthquake
determined. Numerical tests show that the new iterative stress inversion is fast and forecasting for the state since 1990, providing a template for action in seismic
accurate and performs much better than the standard linear inversion. The method situations characterized by low probability and high potential consequences.
is exemplified on real data from central Crete and from the West-Bohemia swarm Emergency managers tend to be proponents of operational earthquake forecasting
area of the Czech Republic. The joint iterative inversion identified correctly 36 of because it provides important information regarding a potentially evolving seismic
38 faults in the central Crete data. In the West Bohemia data, the faults identified sequence that could result in damage and loss of life.

on 09 October 2018
Assessment of Nearshore Hazard due to Tsunami-Induced Currents Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) is performed to achieve a
LYNETT, P., University of Southern California, ; AYCA, A., University of consistent reliability standard of structural performance. PTHA generates large
Southern California, ; BORRERO, J., eCoast, ; WILSON, R., California probabilistic catalogs of tsunami waveforms directly from the source mechanisms
Geological Survey, ; ESKIJIAN, M., California State Lands Commission, ; in accordance with logic tree probabilities for each possible subduction source
MILLER, K., California Emergency Management Agency, mechanism consistent with their estimated plate convergence rates, and propagates
these waveforms to the offshore regimes of the coastlines. The Tsunami Design
The California Tsunami Program coordinated by CalOES and CGS in Zone is the area vulnerable to being inundated by the Maximum Considered
cooperation with NOAA and FEMA has begun implementing a plan to increase Tsunami, which is taken as having a 2% probability of being exceeded in a
awareness of tsunami generated hazards to the maritime community (both ships 50-year period, or a 2,475 year mean recurrence interval. Such tsunami events
and harbor infrastructure) through the development of in-harbor hazard maps, would affect multiple states simultaneously and result in disasters of national
offshore safety zones for boater evacuation, and associated guidance for harbors significance.
and marinas before, during and following tsunamis. The hope is that the maritime
guidance and associated education and outreach program will help save lives and
reduce exposure of damage to boats and harbor infrastructure. Findings will be used
to develop maps, guidance documents, and consistent policy recommendations
for emergency managers and port authorities and provide information critical Slow Earthquakes: Diversity in Fault Motion and Their
to real-time decisions required when responding to tsunami alert notifications. Implications in Earthquake Dynamics
The goals of the study are to (1) evaluate the effectiveness and sensitivity of
existing numerical models for assessing maritime tsunami hazards, (2) find a Oral Session · Wednesday · 1:30 PM · 22 April · Ballroom H
relationship between current speeds and expected damage levels, (3) evaluate Session Chairs: Abhijit Ghosh, Christodoulos Kyriakopoulos
California ports and harbors in terms of tsunami induced hazards by identifying and Hongfeng Yang
regions that are prone to higher current speeds and damage and to identify regions
of relatively lower impact that may be used for evacuation of maritime assets, and
(4) determine ‘safe depths’ for evacuation of vessels from ports and harbors during The Continuum of Slip along the Subduction Megathrust: Observations and
a tsunami event. We will present details of a new initiative to evaluate the future Understanding Gained from the Nicoya Seismic Cycle Observatory
likelihood of failure for different structural components of a harbor, leading to the NEWMAN, A. V., Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA,
identification of high priority areas for mitigation. This presentation will focus on anewman@gatech.edu; KYRIAKOPOULOS, C., University of California,
the results from California ports and harbors across the State, and will include Riverside, CA, christos@ucr.edu; FENG, L., Earth Observatory of Singapore,
feedback we have received from discussions with local harbor masters and port Singapore, lfeng@ntu.edu.sg; HOBBS, T. E., Georgia Institute of Technology,
authorities. Atlanta, GA, tiegan.hobbs@gmail.com; DIXON, T. H., University of South
Florida, St. Petersburg, FL, thd@usf.edu; MALSERVISI, R., University
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Mapping in California of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL, rocco@usf.edu; PROTTI, J. M.,
THIO, H. K., AECOM, Los Angeles, CA, hong.kie.thio@aecom.com; LI, W., Observatorio Vulcanológico y Sismológico de Costa Rica, Heredia, Costa
AECOM, Los Angeles, CA; WILSON, R., California Geological Survey, Rica, marino.protti@gmail.com
Sacramento, CA; MILLER, K., California Governor’s Office of Emergency
Services, San Francisco, CA After approximately two decades of seismic and geodetic observations of the
late-interseismic coupling behavior along the Nicoya segment of the Middle
For a number of years, we have been working towards the development of America Trench subduction megathrust in Costa Rica, an anticipated MW 7.6
probabilistic tsunami hazard maps for the State of California, and the first maps earthquake was geophysically “captured” in late 2012. The earthquake followed an
for the six southern and the two most northern counties are in the process of being approximately 50-year recurrence of mid-magnitude 7 events that continued since
finalized. These maps can be used for multiple types of planning, ranging from at least 1853. Because the Nicoya Peninsula sits atop the seismogenic portion of
design and construction to land-use and risk evaluation, and there are a number the megathrust, the growing GPS network of 24 campaign and 20 continuous sites
of potential users of these products lined up. Our concept is to develop one set was able to observe the full range of interface slip there. Detailed inversions for
of these maps at different probability levels (return periods) to provide these end- interseismic slip range from apparent constant creep over about half of the zone,
users with consistent and accurate products. We will discuss the development to episodic slow slip over another quarter. The remaining zone appeared locked
process of these maps and will present the draft maps themselves. The not only until being released by the 2012 earthquake and afterslip in the hours to weeks that
quantify the inundation hazard, but also flow velocities and momentum (flux), followed. High-rate GPS captured dynamic rupture propagation, and sub-hour
which may of particular interest for engineering purposes and port oprations. Since processing revealed rapid afterslip in the first day. Some portions that appeared
these maps are used in the same regulatory framework as the national (and state) weakly coupled before the earthquake appeared similarly weak during the event,
seismic hazard maps, it is paramount that the input models for these maps are appearing to slip coseismically. While a previously locked region immediately updip
consistent. We will also discuss these issues, in particular with respect to the logic of the coast remained locked during the event, it slipped substantially as afterslip.
tree model for Cascadia. Because of fortuitous timing, these maps are developed in At present, the Nicoya megathrust is beginning to recouple and return to the early
close coordination with the ASCE 7-16 tsunami Design Zone maps, and we will inter-seismic behavior. Major questions remain about what we expect to find as
discuss the relationships between these two efforts, as well as the similarities and we complete the seismic cycle. Will the pre-2012 interface locking pattern return?
differences. If so, how long will it take? If not, what changed and why? What is the role of
non-Newtonian relaxation during the recovery period, and can its effect on surface
The New Tsunami Design Provisions of the ASCE 7-2016 Standard deformation be completely isolated from that due to postseismic afterslip along
CHOCK, G. Y. K., American Society of Civil Engineers, Honolulu, HI, the megathrust? Ultimately, the observations gained through the Nicoya Seismic
gchock@martinchock.com Cycle Observatory will lead to a richer understanding of fault-zone behavior and
improved, time-dependent earthquake forecasts.
The Tsunami Loads and Effects Subcommittee of the American Society of Civil
Engineers/Structural Engineering Institute has developed a new chapter on Spatial and Temporal Variations of Large Slow Slip Events at the Southcentral
tsunami loads and effects for the 2016 edition of the ASCE/SEI 7 Standard, Alaska Subduction Zone
Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other Structures. This new chapter FU, Y., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, Yuning.Fu@
will become the first national, consensus-based standard for tsunami resilience jpl.nasa.gov; LIU, Z., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
for use in the states of Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii. , Zhen.Liu@jpl.nasa.gov; FREYMUELLER, J. T., University of Alaska Fairbanks,
which are tsunami-prone regions due to tsunamigenic subduction earthquakes. Fairbanks, AK, jeff.freymueller@gi.alaska.edu
In these states, mitigation of tsunami risk to public safety requires a combination
of emergency preparedness for evacuation and structural resilience of the critical We identify and study a Slow Slip Event (SSE) in the southcentral Alaska
facilities necessary for immediate response and economic / social recovery, and subduction zone during 2009-2013 using continuous GPS measurements. This is
the structural engineering profession and the affected communities needed a the second large SSE in this region since modern geodetic measurements became
comprehensive consensus engineering standard. The lesson of recent catastrophic available in 1993. This SSE occurs downdip of the main asperity that ruptured in
tsunamis is that historical records alone do not provide a sufficient measure of the 1964 Alaska earthquake, on the same part of the subduction interface as the
the potential heights of future tsunamis. Engineering design must consider the earlier 1998–2001 SSE. The average slip rate of this SSE is ∼4–5 cm/yr, with a
occurrence of events based on the underlying seismicity of subduction zones. cumulative moment magnitude of Mw 7.5. An initial study [Fu and Freymueller,

on 09 October 2018
2013] divided this SSE into two phases according to their transient displacement Crustal Shear Wave Anisotropy Extracted from Tremor along the Entire
time evolution; their slip distributions are similar to each other but slip rates Cascadia Margin in US
are slightly different. Now, we use the extended network inversion filter [Liu et GHOSH, A., University of California, Riverside, CA, aghosh.earth@gmail.com;
al., 2010] to model time-variable GPS deformation at the southcentral Alaska HUESCA, E., University of California, Riverside, CA, ehuesca@gmail.com
subduction zone. This time-dependent inversion strategy efficiently distinguishes
spatially coherent transient slip signals from incoherent motions. Our new results Shear wave anisotropy in the crust provides valuable information including
indicate the SSE started at shallow part of the interface, and gradually propagated structure, state of stress, and segmentation in the crust. Typically, crustal
into the deep. Within the southcentral Alaska subduction zone, the SSEs occur on earthquakes are used to extract splitting time and the azimuth of the fast direction,
a transitional section of the subduction plate interface between the fully locked two important parameters defining anisotropy. In Cascadia Subduction Zone,
updip part and the freely slipping deeper part. During the 1964 earthquake, crustal anisotropy remains largely unknown owing to the low level of crustal
slip on the region of the SSE was much lower than slip in the updip region. seismicity. Measurements of shear wave anisotropy from crustal earthquakes in a
Based on this observation and the repeated SSEs, we conclude that this part large part of the Cascadia margin are virtually non-existent. We use non-volcanic
of the interface slips repeatedly in SSEs throughout the interseismic period tremor in the Cascadia to extract anisotropic parameters of the shear waves in
and does not build up a large slip deficit to be released through large slip in the crust. Tremor occurs along the entire margin of the Cascadia near the plate
earthquakes. interface at the base of the seismogenic zone. This offers a unique opportunity
to measure crustal anisotropy even in the areas where crustal earthquakes are
absent. We analyzed several years of tremor signal during episodic tremor and
Analytical and Numerical Studies of Slow and Fast Earthquakes on Faults slip events, perform polarization and splitting analyses to measure shear wave
with Mixed Velocity-Weakening / Velocity-Strengthening Rheology anisotropy of the crust over the tremor zone along the entire Cascadia margin in
LUO, Y., Caltech, Pasadena, CA, luoyd@caltech.edu; AMPUERO, J. P., US. Splitting time ranges between 0.1 and 0.4s, consistent with typical magnitude
Caltech, Pasadena, CA, ampuero@caltech.edu of crustal anisotropy found in other regions. Splitting time is generally higher in
the southern part of the Cascadia. The fast directions show interesting alongstrike
Geological observations of exhumed melange fault zones, in which competent pattern with some variability. It is generally EW in the north (Washington State),
(brittle) and incompetent (ductile) materials intermingle, suggest that material and changes abruptly to orient NS near the border of Washington and Oregon.
heterogeneities may have an important effect on fault behavior. However, the It coincides with the boundary between western Washington block and coastal
distribution of heterogeneity length scales shows no systematic depth dependence, Oregon block. It also coincides with an area of reduced tremor activity occurring
hence it remains unclear what is its role on the transitions between long period and near the plate interface. Our results indicate that crustal anisotropy obtained using
short period slip, and seismic and aseismic slip as a function of depth. We conduct tremor may reveal segmentation along the Cascadia margin and its implications
analytical and numerical studies of heterogeneous faults with mixed velocity- on the processes operating near the plate interface. Tremor signal provides
weakening (VW) and velocity-strengthening (VS) rheology. In our analytical a new avenue to investigate crustal structure where conventional sources are
studies, we examine via Linear Stability Analysis the slip behavior of a periodical absent.
two-degree-of-freedom spring-block system with mixed VW / VS properties, and
compare the results with a further simplification assuming stress drop balance.
We find that the spatial average of (b-a)*sigma value (frictional properties and
effective normal stress) is an adequate predictor of the criticalness of the fault (i.e. of Very-low-frequency Earthquakes in Japan: Its Implications on the
whether or not it generates spontaneous transient slip events). We further support Earthquake Physics and Seismic Hazard
our analytical results by conducting quasi-dynamic simulations of mixed VW / VS ITO, Y., Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan, ito.yoshihiro.4w@kyoto-u.
continuum faults. The system produces a rich family of behaviors, from slow slip ac.jp
events and complex tremor migration patterns to mega earthquakes and its slow Very-low-frequency earthquakes have been detected at two different depths along
nucleation like the 2014 Pisagua earthquake. The model shows that transitions of the Nankai subduction zone, southwest Japan. One of the earthquakes, which is
slip behavior in a heterogeneous fault can be controlled by spatial transitions of the referred to as an shallow very-low-frequency earthquake (sVLFE) occurs at ˜10
relative strength of competent and incompetent materials, even if the geometrical km depth near the Nankai trough. The other, which is referred to as a “deep very-
distribution of asperities is uniform. low-frequency earthquake (dVLFE) occurs on the subducting plate interface with
a depth of 35–40 km. Historical data suggest that megathrust earthquakes with
PBO Strainmeter Observations of Slow Slip Events in the Cascadia seismic moment magnitudes exceeding 8 occur periodically in this region on ˜100
Subduction Zone: Assessing Their Implications for Time-varying Earthquake year time scales. The sVLFEs are distributed at the up-dip end of the rupture zone
Probability of the megathrust earthquake, while the deep VLF earthquake is distributed at the
ROELOFFS, E. A., U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, WA, evelynr@usgs.gov; down-dip end. The deep VLF earthquakes are distributed in the transition zone
BEELER, N. M., U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, WA from the locked to the stable sliding region at the deep portion of the Nankai
subuduction zone. They showed that the migration of the VLFEs was accompanied
Transient slow slip events (SSEs) preceding subduction megathrust earthquakes by slow-earthquake activities, such as tectonic tremor and slow slip events. The
have been identified retrospectively in Japan and Chile. The Cascadia subduction sVLFE are distributed at a depth of ˜10 km near the subducting plate interface
zone is seismically quiet, but Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) GPS and and within 50–70 km landward of the trough axis. Stress drops of sVLFE are in the
borehole strainmeter (BSM) networks have detected numerous SSEs since 2003. range of 0.1–10 kPa, which corresponds to 0.1–1% of the stress drops of ordinary
Could we prospectively assess whether an unusual SSE indicates an impending earthquakes. The sVLFE probably occurs within the transition zone of a stable
Cascadia earthquake? Cascadia SSEs recorded to date represent a few cm slip on the sliding to locked region at the shallow portion of the Nankai subduction zone as
subduction interface over days to weeks. SSEs recur all along the forearc at depths well as the dVLFE. The monitoring of both VLFEs occurring at both up-dip and
down-dip of the megathrust locked zone. During an SSE, shear stress is transferred down-dip ends of the rupture zone of the megathrust event may be useful to assess
up-dip at an above-background rate. If the locked zone ruptures immediately the stress accumulation on the rupture zone of a megathrust earthquake, because
at a threshold failure stress, then earthquake probability is elevated during an the shear stress on the rupture zone of the megathrust earthquake may be increased
SSE. Or, rate-weakening locked-zone rheology could delay rupture, and elevated by slow earthquakes occurring in the subduction zone. VLFEs occurring on the
probabilities, until after the SSE ends. In all conceptual models, an SSE with more plate interface are also useful indicators for estimating the stress condition toward
net slip and/or shallower up-dip extent is more able to destabilize a locked zone. to the anticipated megathrust earthquake.
To date, Cascadia SSEs have varied primarily in length and propagation speed.
Tide gauge and leveling data indicate an incompletely-locked Cascadia "transition
zone" extending 10-15 km down-dip from the fully-locked zone. SSEs recorded Volcanic Deep Long-Period Earthquakes in Japan
so far have been deeper than this transition zone. In contrast, SSEs before the ASO, N., University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, aso@eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp; OHTA,
1944 and 1946 Nankai M8, the 1960 M9 Chile, and the 2011 M9 Tohoku K., University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, ohta@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp; IDE, S.,
earthquakes occurred adjacent to hypocentral regions. Transition-zone effective University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, ide@eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp
stress might be too high to permit tremor, but PBO BSMs near the Cascadia
coast could detect transition-zone slip. Numerical simulations show how SSEs Deep long-period earthquakes (DLPs) are deep (˜10–45 km) earthquakes that
could slip to progressively shallower depths, reaching higher effective stress where radiate long-period (˜2–8Hz) seismic waves in spite of their small magnitude
shear heating can destabilize slip. Other models predict that, as a great earthquake (M<2). As well as low-frequency earthquakes on plate interface (tectonic
approaches, SSEs could become more frequent, propagate further, and/or slip LFEs), DLPs widely observed in volcanic regions (volcanic DLPs) are potentially
faster. Identifying such patterns might help recognize developing pre-seismic important to understand the slow deformation processes in various tectonic
conditions. settings. While tectonic LFEs are recognized as slip events, the physical mechanism

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of volcanic DLPs has not been well understood. Volcanic DLPs occur around the exists. Most previous studies [e.g., Wdowinski, 2009] used standard SCSN or
Moho not only beneath worldwide volcanoes but also far from active volcanoes relocated catalog [Hauksson et al., 2012] to investigate the relationship between
[Aso et al., 2011, 2013; Vidale et al., 2014]. Some events have considerable deep creep and microearthquakes. However, Kilb et al. [2007] have shown that
non-double-couple components [Nakamichi et al., 2003; Aso and Ide, 2014]. a significant fraction of early aftershocks was missing following the 2001 M5.1
While the tectonic effect of plate movements is limited there, thermal strains Anza earthquake. To obtain complete aftershock sequences, we apply a recently
produced by a cooling magma body are suggested as a driving force [Aso and developed matched filter technique to all 5 moderate-size earthquake sequences.
Tsai, 2014]. Secondary triggered resonant oscillation may produce harmonic As a result, we detect ˜10 times more aftershocks than existing local catalogs for
waveforms, which commonly characterize volcanic DLPs. Accurate determination each sequence. We then compare the aftershock areas among 5 sequences. The 3
of cluster shapes and focal mechanisms is essentially important for understanding events that iniated in the deeper part of the seismogenic zone (i.e., 2001 M5.1,
their source process. We first determined fine shape of 28 clusters in 22 major 2005 M5.2 and 2010 M5.4) all have an elongated aftershock area along the SJF
regions of DLPs in Japan using the NCC relocation method [Ohta and Ide, (i.e., ˜15 km long), longer than aftershock regions for events of similar sizes in other
2008, 2011]. Then, we determined source mechanisms at four clusters where regions. The 2013 M4.7 event, which is ˜12 km in depth, has a smaller aftershock
either linear or planar structure is observed. Based on a waveform similarity area (i.e., ˜8 km long). The shallowest event, the 2010 M4.9 event, has the smallest
among stations, we assumed their stacked waveform as the source acceleration aftershock area of ˜2 km along strike. The positive association between focal depth
function. As a result, CLVD mechanisms were dominant in E. Shimane, Kirishima, and aftershock area supports the hypothesis that deep creep process along the SJF
and Yakedake, although an event in S. Mt. Iwate seems to be a slip event. The may drive the aftershock sequence and hence cause a much larger aftershock area for
orientation of the CLVD tends to be parallel to the lineation of a linear cluster or deeper events. We are in the process of extending the same analysis to other recent
perpendicular to the plane of a planer cluster. These observations are consistent sequences with smaller mainshock magnitudes. Updated results will be presented
with the cooling magma model, although the polarity of CLVD is not well at the meeting.
determined.
Relationship of a Very Long-Term Slow Event to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

KOKETSU, K., University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, koketsu@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp;
KOBAYASHI, H., University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, khiro@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Tectonic Tremor Modulation by Intraslab Fluid Diffusion During Silent
Earthquakes A large slow event has been found in the Japan Trench subduction zone (JTSZ)
CRUZ-ATIENZA, V. M., Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM, Mexico City, Mexico, with duration of nine years leading up to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, from
cruz@geofisica.unam.mx; VILLAFUERTE, C., Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM, the horizontal deformation records observed at GEONET stations (Yokota and
Mexico City, Mexico; CABALLERO, E., Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM, Mexico Koketsu, 2015). This is not only the first finding of a long-term slow slip event
City, Mexico; KOSTOGLODOV, V., Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM, Mexico in the JTSZ, but also its duration is longer than any reported previously in the
City, Mexico; HUSKER, A., Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM, Mexico City, Mexico world. Here we refine the source model of this very long-term slow event (VLSE)
by adding vertical deformation data and examining various source geometries.
Observations in different subduction zones have suggested that overpressured We then compute changes in Coulomb failure function (ΔCFFs) for the refined
fluids close to the plate interface may be related to the origin of sustained tectonic source model and 2011 Tohoku earthquake, to obtain their relationship. We
tremors (TT) and low frequency earthquakes (LFE). One condition for a causal also derive the contributions of other interseismic phenomena in the JTSZ, that
relationship to exist between fluids and such seismicity is their spatial collocation. are slip deficits and M 7-class earthquakes. We then construct the source models
Fluids at nearly lithostatic pressures within the top few kilometers of the oceanic of these phenomena and compute their ΔCFFs. We finally compare the the
crust have been inferred in several subduction zones, including the province of ΔCFFs of the VLSE, the slip deficits, and the M 7-class earthquakes for considering
Guerrero, Mexico. In this work, we report TT relocations and mechanisms using interrelationships among the three. For further confirming the relationship of the
the TREP method (Cruz-Atienza et al., JGR, 2014) from a 3-year-catalog in VLSE to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, we next conduct numerical simulations
Guerrero that includes the period of the Slow Slip Earthquake (SSE) of 2006. of megathrust earthquake cycles (seismic supercycles) using two-dimensional
Unlike earlier investigations, most TT hypocenters lie at 43 km depth (i.e., slightly mechanical models and the method for media under the rate- and state-dependent
below the plate interface) and have subparallel rake angles to the Cocos plate friction law (Kato and Yoshida, 2011). The simulation results for the four
convergence direction. These results are consistent with independent locations mechanical models, which are constructed following Yokota (2013), indicate that
and mechanisms of LFE in the region. Poroelastic modeling of fluid transport a VLSE can occur leading up to a megathrust earthquake. However, the temporal
during the 2006 SSE with a sealed plate interface show that fluids migrate towards occurrence pattern is different model by model, and we cannot conclude that every
the spots where this seismicity occurs (e.g., the Sweet Spot) with maximum VLSE always leads up to a megathrust earthquake. In the busiest case, several VLSEs
velocities about 10-3 km/day, which are more than 3 orders of magnitude smaller occur during a supercycle including the period just before a megathrust earthquake,
than the TT migration speeds. However, Coulomb Failure Stresses including the while, in the idlest case, only a VLSE occurs just before every two megathrust
pore pressure evolution (through the effective stresses) within the top 3 km of earthquakes.
the slab (i.e., below the plate interface) are consistent with the time-dependent
occurrence-frequency of LFEs in the region, provided that permeability of the
fluid saturated rocks increases as a function of the SSE strain field. We concluded
that: (1) fluid diffusive transport during the SSE is not directly responsible of
the TT and LFE migration, (2) TT and LFEs occur within the subducted slab
rather than the plate interface, and (3) the occurrence-frequency of LFEs is Joyner Lecture
modulated by the effective pressure due to the slab damage produced by the SSE Oral Session · Wednesday · 5:15pm · 22 April · Conference
train.
Center
Geoscientists’ Capacity to Supply Engineers’ Demands for Seismic Hazard

Inputs
SOMERVILLE, P.G., AECOM, Los Angeles, CA, paul.somerville@aecom.com;
Improved Understanding of Moderate-size Earthquake Sequences on the San SKARLATOUDIS, A., AECOM, Los Angeles, CA, USA, andreas.
Jacinto Fault and Their Relationship with Deep Creep skarlatoudis@aecom.com
MENG, X., Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, xmeng7@gatech.edu;
PENG, Z., Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, zpeng@gatech.edu Engineers usually require probabilistic expressions of seismic hazard, which require
extensive knowledge of earthquake phenomena from geoscientists. The physical
Wdowinski [2009] hypothesized that the deeper part of the seismogenic zone causes of the remarkably large degree of predictable variability in earthquake
(i.e., 10-17 km) beneath the San Jacinto Fault (SJF) marks a transition zone ground motions are explored, and their representation in design ground motions
between the locked shallow part and ductile crust, where the stored elastic strain in the spectral and time domains is described. Progress in the understanding
is released by microearthquakes and creeping. Since 2011, 5 earthquakes with and quantification of seismic hazards for application in engineering practice is
M4.5-5.5 occurred near the Anza gap along the SJF. The evolution of their documented in case histories which date back to early applications of modern
aftershock sequences may shed light on the deep creep process along the SJF if theoretical seismology and plate tectonic theory.

on 09 October 2018
Site Response in the Central and Eastern United States
YASSMINH, R., University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, ry6d9@mail.
missouri.edu; SANDVOL, E. A., University of Missouri, Columbia, MO,
Sandvole@missouri.edu
Understanding high frequency local and regional wave propagation within the
central and eastern U.S (CEUS). is very important to being able to estimate ground
2014 National Seismic Hazard Mapping Updates: Hazard motions from future large events in this region. Estimation of site response will help
Changes and Influence on Seismic Risk in improving seismic hazard assessments that can mitigate the effect of earthquakes;
Poster Session · Wednesday · 22 April · Exhibit Hall A however, the relative lack of seismic station coverage and sparse seismicity has made
this difficult in the CEUS. The recent increase in seismicity combined with the
deployment of the USArray, however, has made it possible to greatly enhance
Update of California Shaking Hazard Map Incorporating Site Amplification our understanding of site amplification. The goal of our study is to estimate the
CHEN, R., California Geological Survey, Sacramento, CA, rui.chen@ site response using several techniques and evaluate the correlation between site
conservation.ca.gov; WILLS, C. J., California Geological Survey, Sacramento, response factors such as the shear wave velocity for upper 30m, sediment thickness
CA, chris.wills@conservation.ca.gov; BRANUM, D. M., California Geological and topography. We used 7950 seismograms recorded on Transport Array (TA)
Survey, Sacramento, CA, dave.branum@conservation.ca.gov; PETERSEN, M. component of USArray, from 40 earthquakes with epicentral distances between
D., U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO, mpetersen@usgs.gov 20 and 2000 km. J-sesame software was used to calculate the horizontal to vertical
spectral ratio (HVSR). A positive correlation between the site amplification and
CGS published the map of “Earthquake Shaking Potential for California” in 1999, the fundamental frequency was found along the Appalachian Highlands whereas
revising the map following each revision of the National Seismic Hazard Maps a negative correlation was found along the Mississippi embayment. We find
(NSHM). Similar to the NSHMs, the earthquake shaking potential maps depict a negative correlation between site amplification and Vs30m throughout most
expected short period (0.2 s) and intermediate period (1 s) ground motions with of the Central and Eastern USA. We also tested the dependence of the site
2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Unlike the NSHMs, California earthquake amplification on distance and frequency. We found that as the frequency increased,
shaking potential maps incorporate anticipated amplification of ground motions the site amplification was reduced approximately linearly. We are also working on
by local soil conditions. We update the “Earthquake Shaking Potential Map for extracting regional site amplification as a function of frequency for the regional
California” (California Geological Survey Map Sheet 48) based on the 2014 phase Lg using a reverse two station method. We will compare this approach to the
NSHMs developed by the USGS. We incorporate site amplification in the amplification terms we have obtained using the HVSR method.
new shaking potential maps based on a new site-conditions map for California
developed by Wills and others (in progress), and a new semi-empirical nonlinear
Empirical Ground Motion Prediction Equations for Eastern North America
site amplification model developed by Seyhan and Stewart (2014). The effect of site
with the Addition of Intensity Observations
conditions on ground motions are approximately accounted for using the average
AL NOMAN, M. N., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, malnoman@
shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m of the earth’s surface (VS30). Wills and
memphis.edu; CRAMER, C. H., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN,
others developed a new VS30 map for California using more detailed geologic maps
ccramer@memphis.edu
and new categories of young alluvium. To more accurately depict ground motion
amplification due to near surface materials, we interpolate hazard curves for the The Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) East database of ground motions
USGS 2014 NSHMs, on an approximately 5 km grid spacing, with a uniform VS30 for eastern North America (ENA) contains 6048 records (GMRotd50 values)
of 760 m/s to a grid of approximately 50 m spacing. The spatially interpolated from 77 earthquakes in the magnitude range M2.2-6.8. In this study we develop
hazard curves at each grid point are amplified using the VS30 value at that point. empirical GMPE’s by adding ground motion estimates from intensity observations
Peak ground acceleration and peak spectral accelerations at 0.2-s and 1.0-s periods of large historical earthquakes to the NGA-East database to better constrain the
with 2% exceedance probability in 50 years are interpolated from amplified hazard predictions for M>6. For a given historical earthquake, we use the new intensity
curves and mapped to show their geographical distribution. The maps for long vs. ground motion relations of Ogweno and Cramer (2014) to estimate ground
period ground motions depict a much more complex and less smooth distribution motion values for a given observation of MMI. For historical earthquakes without
than ground motion maps with uniform site condition and correspond well with instrumental magnitudes (the 1811-1812 New Madrid and 1886 Charleston
the site conditions map. earthquakes) we use the moment magnitudes from Cramer and Boyd (2014).
The prediction equations are for peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground
Modeling Earthquake Hazard and Risk for the Cascadia Subduction Zone velocity (PGV), and 5% damped pseudo-absolute acceleration spectra (PSA) at
NYST, M., Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA USA, 21 periods between 0.1 sec to 10 sec. Including historical intensity observations
mnyst@rms.com; WILLIAMS, C., Risk Management Solutions, Inc., ; improves our observation-based understanding of ENA magnitude, distance and
FITZENZ, D. D., Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Vs30 scaling and thus better constrains the empirical ground motion predictions
above M6. In particular, the addition of the intensity observations to the NGA
The Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) is the main source of earthquake hazard East ground motion dataset has little effect on the predictions for M<6, but
and risk in the Pacific Northwest in the US and British Colombia in Canada. The significantly reduces predictions at distances less than 100 km. At periods for which
USGS recently updated the US national seismic hazard maps with a revision of the there is no 2001 M7.6 Bhuj ground motion observations, the addition of intensity
CSZ hazard compared to the previous 2008 version. All aspects of the CSZ model observations significantly reduces predictions at all distances for large magnitudes
were modified and especially rupture geometry underwent significant change. (M>6).
Differing perspectives on time-dependent and rupture behavior were incorporated
in a weighted logic tree approach. The Geological Survey of Canada implemented
the CSZ in a deterministic manner in their 2005 hazard maps, but moved on
to a probabilistic model in their upcoming hazard map version. Main standard
components that build up a probabilistic seismic risk model are hazard, building Advances in High-frequency Ground Motion and
response, and a financial loss model. In this paper we investigate the impact of Attenuation
changes in the new USGS hazard model and the differences between the GSC and
most recent USGS model on seismic risk. We’ll quantify in terms of risk metrics
Poster Session · Wednesday · 22 April · Exhibit Hall A
the impact of updated recurrence, time-dependent rupture behavior, characteristic
rupture length and variable magnitude-frequency along the zone from north to The Site Attenuation Parameter and its Variability for Rock Sites in New
south. We implement newly gained insights into generation (segmentation) and Zealand
maximum magnitude of mega-thrust earthquakes. Considered risk metrics include VAN HOUTTE, C., University of Auckland, Lower Hutt, New Zealand,
simple scenario calculations, where we model regional damage and loss due to one c.vanhoutte@gns.cri.nz; HOLDEN, C., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New
worst-case scenario earthquake and several, more probable earthquakes with higher Zealand, c.holden@gns.cri.nz; LARKIN, T., University of Auckland, Auckland,
return periods. We compare average annual loss, an annualized expected loss level New Zealand, t.larkin@auckland.ac.nz; KTENIDOU, O. J., GFZ, Potsdam,
used by insurers to set their premium rates, and the loss exceedance probability Germany, olga.ktenidou@gmail.com
curve used by insurers to manage their solvency and portfolio risk. We analyze risk
profiles in areas with large population density and compare risk of different types The site attenuation parameter, k0, is an important parameter in rock-site
of structures, like well-built high-rise buildings in central business districts, older ground-motion prediction, and is included in multiple ground-motion prediction
unreinforced masonry buildings and typical residential wood buildings. frameworks, such as stochastic simulations and ground-motion prediction

on 09 October 2018
equation (GMPE) adjustments. Recently, it has been suggested that considering k0 could also be related to frequency-dependent attenuation effects. In our second
in empirical GMPEs may improve rock-site predictions. Before k0 can be reliably step we investigate the robustness of the near-surface attenuation parameter κ0
used in forward prediction, its behaviour must be well-defined in its intended and the influence of constraints, such as assuming a value for the regional crustal
region of application. This study presents k0 values for 34 rock-sites in GeoNet’s attenuation Q while using a variety of fitting methods. Starkly different κ0 values
New Zealand National Seismic Network, and correlates these values with local were found depending on whether we allowed for a data-driven Q, or whether
geology, tectonic setting and existing crustal attenuation (Q) studies. k0 in the we forced Q to be consistent with existing simulation models or GMPEs valid
low-to-moderate seismicity Otago region of New Zealand ranges from 0.004 for the wider region. The epistemic uncertainty in κ (both κr and κ0) was
– 0.010 s, while values in the active East Coast subduction forearc range from found to be normally distributed, with σ(κ0)=0.0083±0.0014s. The hardest-
0.038 – 0.058 s. The aleatory uncertainty of the k0 data at an individual station is rock station LLS (Vs30=3000m/s), with negligible amplification, had σ(κ0)=
modelled using a truncated normal distribution. Quantifying the regional aleatory 0.0062.
variability of k0 is more difficult and can be modelled in a number of ways.
Kappa in the Region of the Gulf of California, México
Empirical Estimation of Kappa in the Low-to-Moderate Seismicity Context of CASTRO, R. R., CICESE, Departamento de Sismología, Ensenada, Baja CA,
Southeastern France México, raul@cicese.mx; AVILA-BARRIENTOS, L., CICESE, Departamento
PERRON, V., CEA Cadarache, Saint-Paul-lez-durance, France, de Sismología, Ensenada, Baja CA, México
vincent.perron2@cea.fr; HOLLENDER, F., CEA Cadarache, Saint-Paul-
lez-durance, France, fabrice.hollender@cea.fr; BARD, P. Y., ISTerre, Grenoble, We estimated the spectral decay parameter kappa (K) using records from the
France, pierre-yves.bard@ujf-grenoble.fr; GÉLIS, C., IRSN, Fontenay-aux-Roses, Broadband Seismological Network of the Gulf of California (RESBAN) and from
France, celine.gelis@irsn.fr; KTENIDOU, O. J., ISTerre, Grenoble, France, stations of the NARS-Baja array, operated by CICESE, Ensenada, Baja California,
olga.ktenidou@ujf-grenoble.fr; HERNANDEZ, B., CEA Bruyères-le-Châtel, México. We selected thirteen shallow earthquakes with focal depths less than
Arpajon, France, bruno.hernandez@cea.fr 20 km and magnitudes between 5.1 and 6.6 to calculate K and the near site
attenuation parameter K0 . We used three different approaches to estimate K0 : (a)
Introduced by Anderson and Hough (1984), the κ (kappa) parameter describes with individual measurements of K from the vector modulus of three component
the high-frequency attenuation. It is used by seismologists and engineers as it spectral amplitudes at different epicentral distances and extrapolating to zero
constitutes an important input parameter for several applications (stochastic distance; (b) with individual measurements using vertical component spectra; and
modelling, ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), source studies, etc.). (c) measuring the slope of the high-frequency part of the site transfer function,
This study focuses on the assessment of the site-specific attenuation component determined calculating horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSR method). For
(κ0 ) in a low seismicity context. The methodology followed, according to the most stations the three methods give similar results. At short distances (50-60 km)
taxonomy of Ktenidou et al. (2014), is the Acceleration Spectrum method, K takes values close to 0.04 s at NE76, the station located in the middle of the array.
i.e. direct measurement on the acceleration FAS. While this approach seems K increases with distance taking an average value of up to 0.18 s for distances close
readily usable in areas of high seismicity, where earthquakes of moderate-to-high to 500 km. K0 at most sites is close to 0.03 s, except for GUYB (Guaymas) that
magnitude are numerous, it is more difficult to implement in low seismicity areas, has a K0 =0.05 s and NE83 (Navolato) that has a value of K0 =0.065 s. GUYB is
e.g. in mainland France. Our data were recorded in Provence (Southeastern France) located on igneous breach and NE83 on sedimentary deposits. Finally, we analyze
in a relatively noisy context (close to industrial facilities). Almost 300 events were the dependence of K0 with magnitude and with back azimuth and we did not find
recorded from 2000 to 2012 by an instrumentation using triggered accelerometers. a clear correlation with either one.
An upgrade in 2012 gathering 17 velocimeters and 2 accelerometers operated on
a continuous mode allowed to record almost 500 additional events. These events Nonlinear Interaction of Strong S-Waves, Surface Waves, P-Waves, and
have been recorded from 3 km to 100◦ epicentral distance and in a range of Near-Field Velocity Pulses in the Shallow Subface Leading to Nonlinear
local magnitude from 1.2 to 9.0. We discuss the potential use of this dataset for Attenuation
κ estimation, according to the distance and the number of valuable earthquakes SLEEP, N. H., Stanford, Stanford, CA, norm@stanford.edu; NAKATA, N.,
in terms of signal-to-noise ratio. We present final κ0_AS estimates for three Stanford, Stanford, CA, norm@stanford.edu
sites located few hundred meters from each other: two rock sites and one soil
site. The site component, κ0 , is extrapolated from individual measurements to Major earthquakes radiate energy from a spatially extensive fault surfaces over a
zero epicentral distance, accounting for the regional quality factor, Q. As site protracted periods of time. Strong waves of different types co-arrive at a station
effects can modify the shape of the FAS, the site response is deconvolved. Then and are expected to nonlinearly interact, as subsurface rock does not distinguish
we discuss the variability of the results and the importance of site response between remote sources of stress. We consider Coulomb failure as sliding friction
deconvolution. on the scale of a fracture and internal friction on the scale of the rock mass.
Transient increases shear traction increase the likelihood of frictional failure. The
effects of transient changes of mean stress are not as obvious. We examined records
where nonlinear interaction is plausible. (1) Strong several-Hertz S-waves co-
Epistemic Uncertainty and Limitations of the Kappa0 model for Near-surface arrived with strong ˜3 s Rayleigh waves in eastern Honshu during the 2011 Great
Attenuation at Hard Rock Sites Tohoku earthquake at several local stations. With regard to Rayleigh waves alone,
EDWARDS, B., ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland, edwards@sed.ethz.ch; vertical cracks fail first in dynamic horizontal tension with no shallow tectonic
KTENIDOU, O., Université de Grenoble, Grenoble, France, olga.ktenidou@ujf- stress, but shallowly dipping cracks fail at low levels of dynamic compression when
grenoble.fr; COTTON, F., GFZ, Potsdam, Germany, fcotton@gfz- strong shallow tectonic compression already exists. We detected neither clipping
potsdam.de; ABRAHAMSON, N., University of California, Berkeley, CA, asymmetry. We found an example at KiK-net station MYGH05 where strong
abrahamson@berkeley.edu; VAN HOUTTE, C., University of Auckland, Rayleigh waves seem to have suppressed strong reverberating S-waves. (2) The near-
Auckland, New Zealand, chris.van-houtte@auckland.ac.nz; FÄH, D., ETH field velocity pulse ahead of the crack tip of the strike-slip 1992 Landers earthquake
Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland, faeh@sed.ethz.ch brought the subsurface into frictional failure. High-frequency S-waves and possibly
P-waves should attenuate nonlinearly within the weakened rock mass. The near-
The determination of near-surface attenuation for hard rock sites in an important fault Lucerne record shows the expected suppression of high-frequency S-waves
issue in a wide range of seismological applications. We choose six hard rock sites and early in the near-field velocity pulse. Strong S-waves arrived at the station once
apply a variety of analysis methods to measure the observed attenuation at distance the rupture tip had passed. (3) The tensional half-cycle of strong high-frequency
based on a simple exponential decay model (with argument κr). Five broadband P-waves is expected to suppress high-frequency S-waves, as they reduce the normal
and high-frequency methods are employed. Each of the applied methods has traction on horizontal planes. We also examined the IWTH25 KiK-net record of
pros and cons, which are explored and discussed through the comparison of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi earthquake and the Lucerne record of the 1992 Landers
results from common datasets. In our first step we examine the variability of earthquake for this effect. It is marginally evident.
individual κr. Some variation between methods is expected due to simplifications
of source, path, and site effects. However, we find that significant differences
arise between attenuation measured on individual recordings, depending on the Towards the Definition of Reference Motions (1000< VS <3000 m/s):
method employed or the modelling decisions made. Some of the differences can Estimating Transfer Functions to Correct KiK-net ’Rock’ Sites (500<
be explained through site amplification effects: although usually weak at rock sites, VS30 <1500 m/s) for Site Effects
amplification may still lead to bias of the measured κr due to the chosen fitting LAURENDEAU, A., CEA, Arpajon, France, aurore.laurendeau@cea.fr;
frequency bandwidth, which often varies between methods. At some sites the FOUNDOTOS, L., CEA, Cadarache, France, laetitia.foundotos@cea.fr;
observed high-frequency decay was clearly different to the typical κr attenuation HOLLENDER, F., CEA, Cadarache, France, fabrice.hollender@cea.fr;
model, with curved or bi-linear rather than linear decay at high frequencies, which KTENIDOU, O. J., Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, olga.

on 09 October 2018
ktenidou@ujf-grenoble.fr; HERNANDEZ, B., CEA, Arpajon, France, attenuation parameter kappa, stress drop, and ground motion. For a set of 172
bruno.hernandez@cea.fr events of M1 to ˜3 – all recorded at the same 8 stations within the network – we
consider the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and velocity (PGV). At each station,
A key scientific question in PSHA is: how do we assess regional seismic hazard? we observe the same magnitude dependence of PGA and PGV, i.e., 1.5*M, but
What methods do we use to define a seismic reference motion that does not include each station has a distinct offset in the ground motion amplitudes. Because each
site effects? To assess regional seismic hazard in areas of low-to-moderate seismicity, station observed all 172 events, this difference in amplitude cannot be attributable
we typically use Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), which are based to source effects, i.e., stress drop, and hence is attributed to kappa. The relative
on seismic records from surface stations in active shallow crustal regions. Surface values of kappa we estimate are consistent with previous studies (i.e., Fletcher et
records are typically not available for hard rock sites (VS30 >1500 m/s and low κ0 al., 1986; Kilb et al, 2012), but the scatter seems to be smaller, and hence tighter
values) in the most active regions. However, such hard-rock records are required confidence intervals can be placed on the estimated values of kappa. Station specific
as input motion when it comes to defining local site-specific ground motions. kappa values measured in this manner can be incorporated into high-frequency
One solution that was adopted in recent PSHA projects is to adjust existing ground motion prediction for larger events.
GMPEs from the host to the target region, in terms of source, propagation and
site conditions. However, these adjustments are associated with large uncertainties,
Attenuation of 3-Component Ground Motion in Western Anatolia Horst-
which may have very large effects on the resulting ground motions especially for
Graben System, Turkey
low return periods. We propose an alternative methodology to obtain a prediction
KURTULMUS, T. O., Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Turkey, ozgur.
for reference motion, using downhole seismic records. We explore data from the
kurtulmus@deu.edu.tr; AKYOL, N., Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Turkey,
Japanese KiK-net database (1000< VS <3000 m/s). The transfer functions are
nihal.akyol@deu.edu.tr
estimated using different approaches (empirical and numerical SH1D spectral
ratios, and generalized inversion) and are then compared. We select only records Seismic hazard studies have become progressively more important for the
with a relatively 1D behavior (i.e., without obvious nonlinear or geometrical earthquake engineering applications in the central part of west Turkey due to
effects) and apply the depth correction factor of Cadet et al., 2012. Then, we active extensional tectonics and densely populated areas on deep graben structures.
deconvolve the surface records using the corrected transfer function, so as to obtain One of the fundamental requirements for seismic hazard assessment is accurate
records at the surface with the properties of borehole records. A new GMPE is knowledge of attenuation properties. This study presents estimation of crustal
then developed from these corrected hard rock records. For a specific scenario, the attenuation characteristics in the region by utilizing two-step inversion. We
median model and its associated uncertainties are compared to a GMPE defined evaluated 1764 three-component recordings for 322 micro- and moderate-size
with surface records and adjusted to hard rock conditions using the traditional earthquakes with local magnitudes ranging between 2.0 and 5.6. In the first step,
approach. the non-parametric attenuation functions were obtained for three components.
Then, we analyzed the behavior of anelastic attenuation, Q and the geometrical
Near-Surface QS and t* Estimation from Noise Cross Correlations spreading exponent, b at different frequencies for three different distance ranges
HAENDEL, A., University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, ahaendel@uni- (10-70, 120-200 and 10-200 km). Attenuation estimates reveal that both Q
potsdam.de; OHRNBERGER, M., University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, and b are strongly frequency dependent for large distances. b values of all
Matthias.Ohrnberger@geo.uni-potsdam.de; KRUEGER, F., University of components are 0.9±0.03 and do not show significant frequency dependence
Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, kruegerf@geo.uni-potsdam.de for short paths, while it was modeled as a piecewise in two frequency ranges
for entire and long distances. These results emphasize that geometrical spreading
Knowledge about the spectral shape of earthquake recordings at high frequencies can only be associated with time or distance dependence of the wavefield rather
is essential for various applications in engineering seismology. Attenuation in than any particular seismic phase. Low Q0 and strong frequency dependence
the near surface acts as low-pass filter on the spectrum, commonly described of Q at short distances could be associated to strong heterogeneity because of
by the parameter kappa. Many efforts have been made to understand and high degree of fracturing, fluid filled cracks, young volcanism and/or geothermal
estimate this parameter in recent years. At the same time advances made in activity in the crust. Lower Q frequency dependence and higher Q0 manifest
seismic interferometry opened the possibility to derive attenuation from the cross more homogenous medium because of increasing density and pressure along with
correlation of ambient seismic noise. In this study we follow the approach of Zhang depth for large hypocentral ranges. For short paths, frequency dependence is
and Yang (2013) who were able to compute attenuation from higher order noise lower and Q0 is higher for vertical component, whereas the results obtained
correlations for stations of the USArray. While these authors focused on a regional for horizontal components do not show significant differences between each
scale and on periods within the microseism band (6-25 s), we try to extract t* and other.
shear wave quality factor QS on a more local scale and higher frequencies (1-5 Hz),
closer to the common frequency range used for kappa estimation. We use data that
were recorded on a small circular array in the EUROSEISTEST valley in Northern Accuracy of Estimated Quality Factors in the New Madrid Seismic Zone
Greece. Inter-station distances range from about 200 m to 2 km. The velocity HOSSEINI, M., AECOM Corporation, Los Angeles, CA,
structure below the array is well known from other studies conducted in the area. mehrdad.hosseini@urs.com; PEZESHK, S., The University of Memphis,
Soil conditions range from very soft soil to hard rock. In the cross-correlations we Memphis, TN, spezeshk@memphis.edu; HAJI-SOLTANI, A., The University
look at the amplitude decay with increasing inter-station distance and on spectral of Memphis, Memphis, TN, hjsltani@memphis.edu
amplitude ratios to compute t* and, if possible, a frequency dependent QS . As Attenuation in the Central United States is of interest for reliable ground motion
expected we observe a stronger amplitude decay for stations situated on soft soil prediction purposes. Current practice for quality factor estimation does not
compared to those on rock. QS values obtained for soft soil are in the order of 17- consider azimuthal variation of amplitudes arising from the focal mechanism and
25 and are in agreement with results from previous geophysical studies in the area. the layout of recording stations. In this study, using a wavenumber integration
QS values on rock are surprisingly low, lying only between 5-12. The study shows technique, synthetic seismograms at the location of 14 stations are generated
that it is possible to derive near-surface attenuation from ambient seismic noise. and subsequently inverted to evaluate the proximity of inverted quality factors
The true relation to kappa of this observation is subject to future investigations. with the Q-model used in the seismogram synthesis process. The quality factor
for S and Lg waves are inverted separately. A total of 23 earthquakes are
Using PGA and PGV Data to Easily Estimate Station Specific Kappa used in the synthesis process where their hypocentral distances and fault planes
BALTAY, A. S., USGS, Menlo Park, CA, abaltay@usgs.gov; HANKS, T. C., resemble recorded events in the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ). Coordinates
USGS, Menlo Park, CA, thanks@usgs.gov of stations are the same as the broadband stations in the vicinity of NMSZ
managed by the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University
Through development of a source-based model for the magnitude dependence of of Memphis. A frequency-dependent quality factor is assumed for the NMSZ
ground motion (Baltay and Hanks, 2014), we show that near-site attenuation, as earth models with a functional form of Q=614fˆ0.32. It is observed that
measured by kappa, is a major control on the ground motion from small magnitude accuracy of the estimated quality factor can be improved by taking azimuthal
(M<3) earthquakes. These earthquakes have very high corner frequencies, out of variation into account and subsequently techniques for such improvement are
the visible bandwidth due to the attenuation. This yields a linear dependence of proposed.
ground motion amplitude on seismic moment, or 1.5*M, regardless of the period
of the ground motion response. At these magnitudes, because the true corner
frequency is no longer observable, stress drop is no longer a control on ground Lateral Variations of CODA Wave Attenuation in the Alps
motion; rather, kappa governs the observed strong ground motion. Using a dense MAYOR, J., Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France, Jessie.Mayor@
catalog of earthquakes as small as M1 recorded by the Anza network in Southern irap.omp.eu; CALVET, M., Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France, Marie.
California over 30 years, we demonstrate the trade-offs between the near-site Calvet@irap.omp.eu; MARGERIN, L., Université de Toulouse, Toulouse,

on 09 October 2018
France, Ludovic.Margerin@irap.omp.eu; TRAVERSA, P., EDF-CEIDRE- with the model are also captured and presented in this study. The proposed model
TEGG, Aix-en-Provence, France, paola.traversa@edf.fr along with the other ground motion relations available for this region could be
applied to provide a better representation of the ground shaking in CENA.
We explore lateral variations of coda wave attenuation in the French Alps and
surrounding regions. The area of investigation extends from the Rhine Graben
Broadband Strong Ground Motion Simulation for a Potential Mw7.0
in the north, to the northern Apennine Range in the south, and includes the
Earthquake on The Enriquillo Fault in Haiti
Eastern and Western Alps. Following the classical work of Aki and Chouet (1975),
DOUILLY, R., Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, rdouilly@purdue.edu;
coda wave attenuation has been characterized by measuring the coda quality factor
CALAIS, E., Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris, France, ecalais@geologie.ens.fr;
of short-period S waves (Qc).We have selected about 2000 weak to moderate
FREED, A. M., Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, freed@purdue.edu
earthquakes, with magnitudes ranging from 3 to 5. Waveform data recorded by
permanent seismic networks have been collected at the ORFEUS data center The devastating 2010 Haiti earthquake showed the need to be more vigilant
through the ArcLink protocol. Qc has been measured in five frequency bands [1- toward mitigation for future earthquakes in the region. Previous studies have
2], [2-4], [4-8], [8-16], [16-32] Hz, by applying a simple linear regression to the shown that this earthquake did not even occur on the Enriquillo Fault, the main
smooth energy envelopes of seismograms in the time domain. The map of Qc is fault running through the heavily populated Port-au-Prince region, but rather on
obtained by discretizing the Alpine region into pixels of dimension (50km x 50km). the nearby and previously unknown Léogâne thrust fault. Slip on that fault has
For each source/receiver pair, the estimated value of Qc is distributed along the increased stresses on the Enriquillo fault mostly in the region closer to Port-au-
direct ray path. An average over all paths that cross an individual pixel is performed Prince, the most populated city of the country. Here we investigate the ground
to obtain the local value of Qc. A spatial smoothing over an area covering a square of shaking level in this region if a seismic source model, similar to the Mw7.0 2010
9 pixels is subsequently applied. The maps of Qc display strong lateral variations of Haiti earthquake, occurred on the Enriquillo fault. We used a finite element
attenuation in the Alpine area. At all frequencies, the ratio between the lowest and method to define the fault geometry and we used assumptions on regional stress
largest value of Qc is typically larger than 2. The attenuation pattern is complex but in order to simulate low frequency dynamic rupture propagation for a 60 km long
relatively independent of frequency. Some geological formations such as the Upper segment. The final slip distribution, identical in distribution and magnitude to
Rhine Graben and the eastern Alps show up clearly on the maps and systematically previous finite fault inversion for the 2010 Haiti earthquake, is incorporated in
exhibit lower attenuation than the Po Valley and the Apennines. The French Alps a stochastic method in order to generate realistic strong ground motion in several
are characterized by an attenuation gradient increasing from the north-west to the regions near the Port-au-Prince area.
south-east. The typical scale of the spatial variations of the coda quality factor is of
the order of 100km, which suggests rapid lateral variation of attenuation properties
in the crust. The SCEC Broadband Platform: An Open-Source Platform for Strong Ground
Motion Simulation and Validation
SILVA, F., Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA,
Hybrid-Empirical Ground Motion Models for Georgia fsilva@usc.edu; MAECHLING, P., Southern California Earthquake Center,
ASKAN, A., Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, aaskan@ Los Angeles, CA, maechlin@usc.edu; CALLAGHAN, S., Southern California
metu.edu.tr; TSERETELI, N., Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia, Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, scottcal@usc.edu; JORDAN, T., Southern
nino_tsereteli@tsu.ge California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, tjordan@usc.edu
Ground motion prediction equations are essential for several purposes ranging The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Broadband Platform is a
from seismic design and analysis to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. In well-integrated collection of open-source scientific software that can generate
seismically active regions without sufficient strong motion data to build empirical broadband (0-100Hz) ground motions for earthquakes. The Platform integrates
models, hybrid models become vital. Georgia, despite being located in a region with complex scientific modules that implement rupture generation, low and high-
moderate seismic activity, does not have sufficient strong ground motion data to frequency seismogram synthesis, seismogram processing, and goodness of fit
build empirical ground motion models. In this study, we have applied the host-to- measurements into a software system that supports easy on-demand computation
target method in two regions in Georgia with different source mechanisms: Javaxeti of seismograms. It also provides software utilities that can generate plots, charts,
and Racha regions. According to the tectonic regime of these target areas, two and maps. The Platform has been developed by a scientific and engineering
different regions are chosen as host regions. One of them is the North Anatolian collaboration that involves geoscientists, civil engineers, graduate students, and
Fault zone in Turkey that exhibits mostly strike-slip source mechanisms while the scientific software developers. The Platform operates in two modes: validation
other is Tabas in Iran with reverse mechanisms. We performed stochastic finite- mode and scenario mode. In validation mode, the Platform runs earthquake
fault simulations in both host and target areas using local input parameters and rupture and wave propagation modeling software to calculate seismograms of a
employed the hybrid-empirical method as introduced and outlined in Campbell historical earthquake for which observed strong ground motion data is available. In
(2003). An initial hybrid empirical ground motion model is developed for Peak validation mode, the Platform calculates a number of goodness of fit measurements
Ground Acceleration and Spectral Acceleration at selected periods for Georgia. that quantify how well the model-based broadband seismograms match the
This model could be employed in various applications where use of ground motion observed seismograms. Based on these results, the Platform can be used to
prediction equations is required. evaluate and validate different numerical ground motion modeling techniques. The
Platform currently includes validation simulation inputs and observational data
for 12+ historical events from the eastern and western United States, and Japan.
Application of Broadband Simulation Technique in Development of New
In scenario mode, the Platform runs simulations for hypothetical, earthquakes.
Hybrid Empirical Ground Motion Model in Central and Eastern North America
In this mode, users input an earthquake description, a list of station names and
SHAHJOUEI, A., The University of Memphis, Memphis, TN USA,
locations, and a 1D velocity model for the region of interest, and the Platform
shhjouei@memphis.edu; PEZESHK, S., The University of Memphis, Memphis, software then calculates ground motions for the specified stations. The Broadband
TN USA, spezeshk@memphis.edu Platform collaborative development process, involving earth scientists, engineers,
Ground motion models characterize the level of ground shaking in terms and software developers, helps ensure that the Platform can be used in earthquake
of the earthquake magnitude, source-site distance, fault mechanism, and the engineering applications.
local site condition. Pezeshk et al. (2011) developed a hybrid empirical
ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for the central and eastern North Broadband Synthetic Seismograms for Normal-Faulting Earthquakes Using
America (CENA) using the point source stochastic model and the NGA-West1 the Composite Source Model.
empirical ground motion models. In this study, an alternative hybrid GMPE MCBEAN, K. M., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, kevinmcbean@gmail.com;
is proposed incorporating synthetic earthquakes generated through a hybrid ANDERSON, J. G., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, jga@unr.edu
broadband simulation technique along with the recent updated empirical ground
motion models developed in the NGA-West2 project. Broadband synthetics are The 2011 Fukushima-Hamadori sequence of normal-faulting events in Japan
constructed by combining the deterministic low-frequency and the stochastic high- generated a large number of strong-motion records. The sequence included 15
frequency synthetics separately generated from the finite-fault method. We have events with MW > 5. Our project aims to calibrate the Composite Source
compared the results of the new model with the preexisting models in CENA. The Model (Anderson, 2015) to produce realistic synthetic seismograms that match
model is validated against the small-moderate magnitude earthquakes in the NGA- the broadband characteristics of all these records from stations within 100 km. The
East database. The proposed GMPEs, as an update to Pezeshk et al. (2011), provide eventual goal is a proven ability to generate synthetic accelerograms that are suitable
the peak ground motions (PGA, PGV) as well as the pseudo-spectral accelerations for use in engineering applications. Two of the required inputs for the CSM are
(PSAs) at the spectral periods of 0.01–10s in a distance range of 2–1000 km, and regional velocity and Q models. The regional velocity model of Nakajima et al.
for an earthquake moment magnitude range of 5–8. The uncertainties associated (2009) is modified for a reference rock site using near-surface velocity structure

on 09 October 2018
that minimizes resonances. Attenuation in the model is calculated based on a Kevin.Miller@caloes.ca.gov; WILSON, R. I., California Geological Survey,
frequency-dependent Q model, which is separated into a frequency-independent Sacramento, CA, Rick.Wilson@conservation.ca.gov; BAHNG, B., NOAA
term and a term proportional to frequency. The former is used in the calculation of NWS, Palmer, AK, bo.bahng@noaa.gov; BARBEROPOULOU, A., USC,
Green’s Functions, the latter incorporated into the generation of coda. We found Los Angeles, CA, aggeliki.barberopoulou@gmail.com; BORRERO, J. C.,
a suitable frequency-independent Q model that matches the distance-dependence eCoast Limited, Raglan, New Zealand, jborrero@usc.edu; BROSNAN, D. M.,
of the spectral decay parameter kappa as measured in the data. At the meeting, University of California, Davis, CA, deborahbrosnan@gmail.com; BWARIE,
we will report on this and on reproducing the distance-dependence of spectral J. T., USGS, Pasadena, CA, jbwarie@usgs.gov; Cambpell, N. M., University
amplitudes from 0.2 to 20 Hz. We adjust the synthetics to local site conditions of Colorado, Boulder, CO, nnenia.campbell@colorado.edu; GEIST, E. L.,
using the spectral ratio of quarter-wavelength-derived (Boore and Joyner, 1997) USGS, Menlo Park, CA, egeist@usgs.gov; JOHNSON, L. A., Laurie Johnson
amplification functions for the site velocity model and the regional velocity Consulting|Research, San Rafael, CA, laurie@lauriejohnsonconsulting.com;
model. Once the velocity and Q models are determined, as well as the earthquake KIRBY, S. H., USGS, Menlo Park, CA, skirby@usgs.gov; KNIGHT,
magnitude, fault orientation, and fault dimension, the only free input parameter W. R., National Tsunami Warning Center, NOAA, NWS, Palmer, AK,
adjusted to fit the data is the subevent stress drop parameter. The resulting stress william.knight@noaa.gov; LONG, K., Cal OES, Pasadena, CA, Kate.Long@
drop measurements aid in our understanding of these unusual normal-faulting caloes.ca.gov; LYNETT, P., University of Southern California, Los Angeles,
earthquakes. CA, plynett@usc.edu; MORTENSEN, C. E., USGS, Menlo Park, CA,
cmortensen@usgs.gov; NICOLSKY, D. J., University of Alaska, Fairbanks,
Ground-Motion Simulations from 3D Dynamic Rupture Simulations of Dipping AK, djnicolsky@alaska.edu; OGLESBY, D. D., University of California,
Rough-Fault Events Riverside, CA, david.oglesby@ucr.edu; PERRY, S. C., USGS, Pasadena, CA,
SHI, Z., San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, zshi@mail.sdsu.edu; DAY, scperry@usgs.gov; PLUMLEE, G. S., USGS, Denver, CO, gplumlee@usgs.gov;
S. M., San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, sday@mail.sdsu.edu PORTER, K. A., University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, keith@cohen-porter.net;
REAL, C. R., California Geological Survey, Sacramento, CA, Chuck.Real@
We perform 3-D numerical simulations of dynamic rupture along rough dip-slip conservation.ca.gov; RITCHIE, L. A., University of Colorado, Boulder, CO,
faults to study characteristics of ground motions from such dip-slip events. Shi liesel.ritchie@colorado.edu; RYAN, K., University of California, Riverside,
and Day (2013) deterministically generated high-frequency ground motions for up CA, kryan003@ucr.edu; SULEIMANI, E., University of Alaska, Fairbanks,
to ˜10 Hz by numerically modeling rupture propagation along a rough strike-slip AK, elena@gi.alaska.edu; THIO, H. K., URS Corporation, Los Angeles, CA,
fault. Dynamic rupture propagation on rough faults results in rupture irregularities hong.kie.thio@urs.com; TITOV, V. V., NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental
that lead to ground motions with complex spatial patterns and extensive high- Laboratory, Seattle, WA, vasily.titov@noaa.gov; WEIN, A., USGS, Menlo
frequency content exhibiting characteristics comparable to appropriate empirical Park, CA, awein@usgs.gov; WHITMORE, P. M., National Tsunami Warning
estimates, throughout the period range 0.1- 3.0 sec. In the current study we Center, NOAA, NWS, Palmer, AK, paul.whitmore@noaa.gov; WOOD, N. J.,
apply the same methodology to the deterministic simulation of high-frequency USGS, Portland, OR, nwood@usgs.gov
ground motions for dip-slip events by assuming that the surface topology of the
dipping fault follows a self-similar roughness pattern. The distance dependence of The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami,
site-averaged GMRotD50 on Rx shows interesting period dependence with the created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula,
attenuation curves being more complicated and deviating from classical hanging- and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas,
wall effect. We explore the influence of geometrical and dynamic parameters current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs,
of faulting on rupture dynamics and ground motions, such as fault dip, rake economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency
angle, depth to the top-of-rupture and stress distribution, with the goal of better management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario
understanding how ground motion phenomena such as directivity and hanging- tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation
wall amplifications are related to the dynamic and geometrical characteristics of decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future
dip-slip events. tsunamis. The scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through
a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency
managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the
Analysis of 3D Deterministic Broadband (0-25 Hz) Ground Motions Generated business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts
by Models of Small-scale Crustal Heterogeneities and Q(f) such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA’s
SAVRAN, W. H., San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, wsavran@ annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami
ucsd.edu; OLSEN, K. B., San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, kbolsen@ Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including
mail.sdsu.edu the State of Washington and several counties in California; San Francisco ran a 3-
State-of-the-art crustal velocity and density models represent the large-scale day exercise. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the
Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami
(hundreds of meters or larger) three-dimensional structure reasonably accurately,
but poorly resolve the small-scale (tens of meters) structure of the Earth’s crust. Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits
We model the small-scale heterogeneous nature of the earth’s crust using a fractal and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve
distribution with parameters constrained by sonic logs to represent the realistic problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best
address their specific concerns; 3) providing groups with information packaged
variation observed in ground motion records. To investigate the scattering effects
of waves propagating through the small-scale heterogeneities we use 0-25 Hz 3D specifically for them; 4) recognizing the value of having scenario developers
finite-difference simulations including frequency-dependent anelastic attenuation personally present the scenario to user groups and 5) having the SAFRR work
applied to support ongoing activities by and future directions of the California state
with the scalable AWP-ODC code. We find that the largest-amplitude scattered
waves tend to propagate in bands of strong amplification aligned in the direction of tsunami program.
the ray paths. 3D visualization of the scattered waves shows that these convoluted
bands of scattered S-waves follow the paths of lower-than-average velocity in Tsunami Evacuation Park for Padang, West Sumatra
the crustal structure. We use the large bandwidth of our simulations to extend TUCKER, B. E., GeoHazards International, Menlo Park, CA, tucker@
results from previous studies on the importance of small-scale crustal scattering geohaz.org; CEDILLOS, V., Applied Technology Council, Redwood City, CA,
as a function of frequency and distance from the source. Moreover, we address vcedillos@gmail.com; KORNBERG, K. A., Kornberg Associates, Menlo Park,
the trade-off between (frequency-dependent) anelastic attenuation and the high- CA, ken@kornberg.com; DEIERLEIN, G. G., Stanford University, Stanford,
frequency scattered waves. CA, ggd@stanford.edu; DI MAURO, M., Earth Observatory of Singapore,
Singapore, Singapore
Padang, Indonesia, a city of about 1 million, half of whom live close to the coast
and within a five-meter elevation above sea level, has one of the world’s highest
Applications of Tsunami Science: Working with States tsunami risks due to its close offshore thrust-fault seismic hazard, flat terrain and
and Communities to Improve Tsunami Resilience dense population. Based on coring of offshore coral reefs and the absence of recent
Poster Session · Wednesday · 22 April · Exhibit Hall A offshore tsunamis, the probability is high that a tsunami will strike Padang, flooding
half the city, during the next few decades. If that tsunami occurred today, several
hundred thousand people would die, as they could not reach safe ground in the
The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation ˜30 minute interval between the earthquake’s occurrence and the tsunami’s arrival.
ROSS, S. L., USGS, Menlo Park, CA, sross@usgs.gov; JONES, L. M., USGS, Padang’s vulnerability is evident: after 4 recent earthquakes, citizens, thinking
Pasadena, CA, jones@usgs.gov; MILLER, K., Cal OES, San Francisco, CA, that those earthquakes might have triggered a tsunami, tried to evacuate, and

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created traffic jams that prevented them from reaching safe ground in 30 minutes. rupture model. As there have been no historical M9+ events on the Hikurangi
Since 2008, we have studied a range of options to reduce Padang’s tsunami risk, Trench, this source possess unique challenges. This study examines the impacts of
including ways to accelerate evacuation to high ground with pedestrian bridges a suite of event rupture models to understand the key drivers in the variations in
and widened roads, and means of “vertical” evacuation in multi-story buildings, the tsunami inundation footprints. The goal is to develop a suite of tsunamigenic
mosques, pedestrian overpasses, and Tsunami Evacuation Parks (TEPs), which are event characterizations that represent a range of potential tsunami outcomes for
man-made hills with recreation facilities on top. TEPs, being located close to homes M9 events on the Hikurangi Trench. The focus of this case study is the Napier
and schools, may reduce the disproportionately high lethality of women, children region as it represents an important exposure concentration in the region and
and the elderly observed in past tsunamis. TEPs proved the most practical and has experience tsunami inundations in the past including during the 1931 Ms7.8
cost-effective for Padang, given the available budget, technology and time. We have Hawkes Bay Earthquake.
acquired permission to build a prototype TEP in the northern part of Padang that
would accommodate about 25,000 people during the time of a tsunami, and would Specification of Tectonic Tsunami Sources along the Western Alaska
cost about $2 1/2 million, amounting to a cost-per-life-saved of $100, far lower Peninsula for Inundation Mapping and Hazard Assessment
than the per capita cost of the other options. The cost of replication should be less. SULEIMANI, E., Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks,
We have helped form an Indonesian foundation that has raised to-date $500,000 Fairbanks, AK; NICOLSKY, D. J., Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska
toward the construction cost. Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK
Time-dependent Geo-targeted Alerts and Warning Enabled by Dense The Alaska Earthquake Center conducts tsunami inundation mapping for coastal
Observations of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami communities in Alaska along several segments of the Aleutian Megathrust, each
KOHLER, M. D., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, kohler@ having a unique seismic history and tsunami generation potential. Accurate
caltech.edu; AMPUERO, J. P., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, identification and characterization of potential tsunami sources is a critical
ampuero@gps.caltech.edu; SUTTON, J. N., University of Kentucky, Louisville, component of our project. As demonstrated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami,
KY, jeannette.sutton@uky.edu; BOWDEN, D. C., California Institute of underestimation of the maximum possible size event for a given segment of the
Technology, Pasadena, CA, dbowden@caltech.edu subduction zone could be tragic. This emphasizes the importance of the detailed
knowledge of the region-specific subduction processes, and using the most up-
New multi-disciplinary results are presented to assess how predictions of tsunami to-date geophysical data and research models that define the magnitude range of
wave impact and tsunami warning messages can be improved by including multiple possible future tsunami events. Our current focus is on the western part of the
large-amplitude wave arrivals over longer time durations and at refined spatial Alaska Peninsula, where communities of King Cove and Cold Bay are located.
resolution. In March 2011, a deployment of ocean bottom seismometers off the The primary tectonic element of this area is the Aleutian megathrust, the most
coast of Southern California (ALBACORE project) recorded the Tohoku tsunami seismically active fault zone in the US that produced a number of tsunamigenic
on 22 differential pressure gauges (DPGs). The DPG tsunami records across the earthquakes in the past. By performing a sensitivity analysis of tsunami wave
entire array show multiple large-amplitude, coherent phases arriving one hour to field with respect to different slip distribution patterns, we demonstrate that
more than 36 hours after the initial tsunami phase. A beamforming technique the near-field tsunami runup in the target communities is highly sensitive to
is applied to the pressure gauge data to determine the azimuths of scattered variability of slip along the rupture area. We employ estimates of slip deficit along
wave energy, and to identify the sources of prominent late tsunami waves. The the Aleutian Megathrust from GPS campaign surveys, and a discretized plate
tsunami data are examined in three bands, 20-40 min, 10-20 min, and 5-10 min, interface model fit to the Slab 1.0 geometry. We then define hypothetical asperities
in addition to broadband. The largest waves arrive from the northwest (˜275 along the megathrust and in down-dip direction, and perform a set of model
degrees), consistent with the direct, great circle path. Secondary waves arrive from runs to identify coseismic deformation patterns resulting in the highest runup at
the southeast (˜100 degrees), possibly from a local bathymetric structure such as the target communities. Results of numerical modeling combined with historical
the edge of the continental shelf (Patton Escarpment). Other strong scattered observations are compiled on inundation maps and used for site-specific tsunami
phases are visible in the 20-40 min results including a strong phase arriving from hazard assessment by emergency planners.
˜330 degrees. In a complementary study, we are generating specificity-enhanced
tsunami messages. Following focus group research, revised tsunami messages will
be evaluated via online experiments with the public, to determine how revised Assessment of Interseismic Coupling Models to Estimate Tsunami Inundation
message content, in contrast with the original message, affects message receiver and Runup
understanding, believing, and personalizing, all of which are pre-decisional sense GONZÁLEZ-CARRASCO, J., Universidad Católica del Norte, Antofagasta,
making activities. The results will demonstrate the effects of including clearly Chile, jgonzal@alumnos.ucn.cl; ARÁNGUIZ, R., Universidad Católica de la
described locations, time of impact, and hazard impact consequences on message Santísima Concepción, Concepción, Chile, raranguiz@ucsc.cl; DOMÍNGUEZ,
perception among the public, and will increase empirically derived knowledge on J. C., Ministerio de Obras Públicas, Puerto Montt, Chile, juan.dominguez@
behavioral responses to tsunami warning messages. mop.gov.cl; GONZÁLEZ, G., Universidad Católica del Norte , Antofagasta,
Chile, ggonzale@ucn.cl; CIENFUEGOS, R., Pontificia Universidad Católica
Examining Hikurangi Trench M9 Event Characterization for Tsunami de Chile, Santiago, Chile, racienfu@ing.puc.cl; CATALÁN, P., Universidad
Modeling Técnica Federico Santa María , Valparaíso, Chile, patricio.catalan@usm.cl;
WILLIAMS, C. R., RMS, Newark, CA, Chesley.Williams@rms.com; NYST, URRA, L., Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción , Concepción, Chile,
M. C., RMS, Newark, CA, Marleen.Nyst@rms.com; FARAHANI, R., RMS, liurra@ing.ucsc.cl. All authors affiliated with National Research Center for
Newark, CA, Rozita.Farahani@rms.com; ASTILL, S., RMS, London, UK, Integrated Natural Disaster Management (RCINDIM/CIGIDEN)
Sarah.Astill@rms.com; BRYNGELSON, J., RMS, Newark, CA, Jason.
Bryngelson@rms.com; LEE, R., RMS, Newark, CA, Renee.Lee@rms.com; Tsunami inundation maps are powerful tool to design evacuation plans of
WILSON, P., RMS, London, UK, Paul.Wilson@rms.com; MOLAS, G., RMS, coastal communities, additionally can be used as guide of territorial planning
Newark, CA, Gilbert.Molas@rms.com and assessment of structural damages in port facilities. The precision of
inundation estimation is highly correlated with tsunami initial condition, generally
RMS is developing a model to help of the insurance industry price and manage risk calculated using homogeneous rupture models based in historical worst case
due to tsunami for New Zealand. A key tsunamigenic source for New Zealand is the scenario. Tsunamigenic events occurred in chilean continental margin showed
Hikurangi Trench. This trench lies offshore on the east side of the North Island of a heterogeneous slip distribution of source with patches of high slip, correlated
New Zealand. It is the result of the subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the with high interseismic coupling zones (Moreno et al., 2012). The main objective
North Island at a rate of 40-45 mm/yr. Though there have been no M9+ events on of this work is evaluate interseismic coupling models and tsunamigenic source
the Hikurangi Trench historically, events in this magnitude range are considered associated to estimate tsunami inundation and runup in coastal areas. We evaluate
in the latest version of the national seismic hazard maps for New Zealand (Stirling two tsunamigenic scenarios based in Mw 8.8, Maule and Mw 8.1, Pisagua, Chile
et al., 2012). The tsunami lifecycle is modeled in three stages: event generation, using interseismic coupling models proposed by Moreno et al., 2011, Chlieh et al.,
ocean wave propagation, and coastal inundation. The tsunami event generation 2011 and Métois et al., 2013 to compare with available slip distributions of seismic
is modeled based on seafloor deformation resulting from an event rupture model. events and sea level time series of tsunami coastal impact. We process an ISC model
The ocean wave propagation and coastal inundation are modeled using a numerical generated by Moreno et al., 2011 to obtain a slip deficit distribution based in the
solver, implemented on graphic processing units using a finite-volume approach definition of coupling in a seismic gap. The generation of the tsunami source need
to approximate 2D shallow-water wave equations over the ocean and complex some geological information as (a) slab depth distribution (SLAB1.0) (Hayes et al.,
topography. As the wave enters shallow water and approaches the coast, the model 2012) and (b) strike, rake and dip (Global CMT catalog, Dziewonski et al., 1981;
calculates the movement of water along the wet/dry interface considering variable Ekström et al., 2012), finally to construct the tsunami model we using NEOWAVE
land friction. The initiation and characteristics of the tsunami are based on an event 2D (Yamazaki et al.., 2009) and data as (a) DEM of rupture area and (b) tide gauges

on 09 October 2018
records to validate the results. The estimation of tsunami source using ISC model of Emergency Services, San Luis Obispo, CA, jeri.siegel@caloes.ca.gov;
can be useful to improve the analysis of tsunami threat, based in more realistic slip PRIDMORE, C., California Geological Survey, Sacramento, CA,
distribution. An ISCM tsunami source reproduce correctly first hours of tsunami cynthia.pridmore@conservation.ca.gov; WILSON, R., California Geological
activity, where we have real tide records. Survey, Sacramento, CA, rick.wilson@conservation.ca.gov
The State of California has had a tsunami hazard reduction program in place
Dynamic Models of Earthquakes and Tsunamis from Rupture on the Pitas for several years which promotes tsunami planning, preparedness and hazard
Point and Lower Red Mountain Faults Offshore Ventura, California mitigation among California’s coastal communities. The California Governor’s
RYAN, K. J., University of California, Riverside, CA, kryan003@ucr.edu; GEIST, Office of Emergency Services and California Geological Survey co-lead the
E. L., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA; BARALL, M., Invisible Software, program and have built on scientifically-based information depicting the expected
San Jose, CA; OGLESBY, D. D., University of California, Riverside, CA tsunami hazard since tsunami inundation maps were released statewide in 2009.
Together, through this program, officials at the federal, state, university, and
Within the Ventura basin in southern California is a network of coastal dip-slip local levels undertake education and outreach measures, develop operational
faults that quite likely can produce earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater, as response plans, and advance potential mitigation measures based on findings.
well as significant tsunamis. We construct a 3D dynamic rupture model of an They collaborate on a variety of actions through the California Tsunami Steering
earthquake on the connected Pitas Point and Lower Red Mountain faults to model Committee, which guides priorities in the state. Additionally, the state participates
low-frequency ground motion and the resulting tsunami, with a goal of elucidating in the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program which provides a venue for
the seismic and tsunami hazard in this area. Fault rupture results in an average slip insurance of consistent policy development and implementation at the national
of 7.6 meters, and a moment magnitude of 7.7, consistent with paleoseismic data level as well as funding. Each year a week-long campaign encourages preparedness
in the region. Corresponding hydrodynamic tsunami models use the final seafloor and focuses consistent public safety messaging about what to do in the face
displacement from the fault rupture models, providing tsunami formation and of future tsunamis. During Tsunami Preparedness Week, the last full week in
local propagation. The tsunami model results in large peak tsunami amplitudes March each year, county and local officials take the opportunity to encourage
northward and eastward due to site and path effects from variations in bathymetry. preparedness and basic understanding of what to do to be better prepared. This
In particular, inundation in the Ventura area is greater than that implied by state week has the power to set the tone for ongoing research and preparedness work
of California’s reference inundation line. Results from these modeling efforts can which continues at all levels year-round. Specific actions and activities typically
be used to pinpoint areas of high tsunami hazard, and point toward the use of this undertaken include: Official proclamations Tsunami walk/run evacuation drills
methodology in tsunamigenic regions worldwide. Registration of activities at www.TsunamiZone.org Recognition of TsunamiReady
communities Participation in Pacific-wide, scenario-based exercises Test activation
Post- and Co-Tsunami Science Teams: Cascadia Planning, Northern of sirens, and TV messaging Workshops and media events Distribution of materials
California for schools and the public Coordinated public presentations
PATTON, J. R., Humboldt State University, Arcata, CA, Jason.Patton@
humboldt.edu; WILSON, R., California Geological Survey, Sacramento, CA, New Tsunami Preparedness and Response Tools for California Communities
Rick.Wilson@conservation.ca.gov; ROSINSKI, A., California Geological WILSON, R. I., California Geological Survey, Sacramento, CA,
Survey, Sacramento, CA, Anne.Rosinski@conservation.ca.gov; FALLS, J., Rick.Wilson@conservation.ca.gov; MILLER, K. M., California Governor’s
California Geological Survey, Eureka, CA, Jim.Falls@conservation.ca.gov; Office of Emergency Services, San Francisco, CA, Kevin.Miller@caloes.ca.gov
DENGLER, L. A., Humboldt State University, Arcata, CA, Lori.Dengler@
humboldt.edu; HEMPHILL-HALEY, E., Humboldt State University, Arcata, Significant issues were identified by coastal emergency managers and harbor
CA, eileen.hemphill-haley@humboldt.edu; MOLEY, K., Pacific Watershed masters in the wake of the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan tsunamis in California:
Associates, McKinleyville, CA, kathym@pacificwatershed.com; ADMIRE, A., 1) existing landward evacuation that considers only maximum events and may
Humboldt State University, Arcata, CA, ara11@humboldt.edu; NICOLINI, result in over-evacuation; 2) real-time tsunami forecasts which do not consider
T., National Weather Service, Eureka, CA, Troy.Nicolini@noaa.gov; MILLER, impacts from tidal conditions or storm surge; 3) no planning products to help
K., California Office of Emergency Services, Sacramento, CA, Kevin.Miller@ guide maritime communities in their tsunami response; and 4) a lack of “eyes
CalOES.ca.gov; MCPHERSON, R.C., Humboldt State University, Arcata, on the water” to observe the tsunami, identify problem areas, and provide
CA, Robert.McPherson@humboldt.edu; LEROY, T.H., Pacific Watershed real-time feedback to decision makers. The California Governor’s Office of
Associates, McKinleyville, CA, toml@pacificwatershed.com Emergency Services (CalOES) and the California Geological Survey are working
with FEMA, NOAA, and the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program
Real Time observations of local and distant tsunami impacts provide data for (NTHMP) to provide communities with new tsunami response planning tools.
calibration and validation of models used by emergency managers and tsunami Detailed “Playbooks” for secondary evacuation zones have been developed for
scientists to forecast and plan for tsunami hazards and risks. Self-selected various tsunami scenarios. To determine an evacuation level during distant-
researchers formed a Tsunami Science team in order to develop standard operating source tsunamis, the State developed the analytical FASTER approach to include
procedures (SOPs) to document potential earthquake and tsunami impacts in local factors influencing tsunami flood hazard. The tool measures: Forecast
Humboldt and Del Norte counties, California. The SOPs utilized various forms Amplitude, Storm, Tides, Error in forecast, and Run-up potential. Working
of data collection and data sharing strategies including the California Office of with the University of Southern California, response playbooks have also been
Emergency Services (CalOES) Earthquake Clearinghouse, the SpotOnResponse developed for ports and harbors identifying tsunami current hazards for various
online “app” and website, and the California Geological Survey (CGS) Basecamp size events. Knowing this allows harbor personnel to move ships or strengthen
online geospatial databases. The field team represented the northern region of the infrastructure prior to distant source tsunamis. The State also evaluated that
state-wide Earthquake and Tsunami Field-Team Clearinghouses run by CGS and ships need only to evacuate beyond a depth of 180 feet (30 fathoms) to be
CalOES. The Tsunami Science team conducts annual exercises. In conjunction safe offshore. A statewide Tsunami Information Clearinghouse network has been
with the May 2014 Federal Emergency Management Agency Cascadia subduction established for scientific field teams to observe and report tsunami hazards to
zone exercise, our team conducted a tabletop exercise where we provided pre- CalOES and county authorities. The State plans to develop a web-camera network
event situation reports to CalOES as injects. During the exercise, we collected and for emergency managers to use in real-time. Other states in the NTHMP are
uploaded observations and interacted with upstream and downstream consumers considering developing similar products/projects for their coastal communities.
of simulated real time tsunami. Based on the team’s initial observations, CalOES
was able to direct team members to collect additional data. Through this exercise,
our team, CalOES, CGS, USGS, and other partners identified weaknesses and
ways to create a more seamless and operational emergency response process.
The Tsunami Science team hopes to build an inventory of data collection Earthquake Hazards and Risk: Drivers and Consumers of
and support equipment, recruit new team members, and to further develop Earthquake Research
relationships with emergency managers to more efficiently operate during a real
emergency response operation. Supporting material is posted to our website
http://www.tsu.cascadiageo.org/ .
Reevaluation of Earthquake Losses in Istanbul and of Implications for the
California’s Tsunami Preparedness Campaign Performance of the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool
MILLER, K., California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, San Francisco, CAKTI, E., Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey, eser.cakti@boun.edu.tr;
CA, kevin.miller@caloes.ca.gov; SIEGEL, J., California Governor’s Office HANCILAR, U., Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey, hancilar@boun.edu.tr;

on 09 October 2018
SESETYAN, K., Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey, karin@boun. Elements of Information (EEI) necessary to achieve situational awareness are often
edu.tr generated from a wide array of organizations and disciplines, using any number
of geospatial and non-geospatial technologies. We have worked in partnership
The city of Istanbul will likely experience substantial direct and indirect losses as a with the California Earthquake Clearinghouse to develop actionable data products
result of a future large earthquake. This study is essentially an updated look at the for use in their response efforts, particularly in statewide response exercises,
expected building losses in the city given its enourmous growth rate. The results and most recently in their activation for the August 2014 Napa earthquake.
are evaluated in terms of probable maximum and average annualized losses and Plans are underway to support the upcoming May California Capstone National
discussed from the perspective of the compulsory earthquake insurance scheme Level Exercise that will feature a large, damaging southern San Andreas scenario
operational in the country. They are compared with those from a similar study earthquake. The Clearinghouse portion will focus on the Cajon Pass region,
carried out ten years ago. with specific E-DECIDER and GeoGateway products generated for the exercise.
We will present perspectives on developing tools for decision support and data
Conditional Ground Motion Simulations for Near-Real Time and Scenario discovery in partnership with the Clearinghouse and plans for the upcoming
Loss Assessments Using Shakemap May exercise. Planned products will include map layers as part of the common
HORSPOOL, N. A., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, n. operational data plan for the Clearinghouse, delivered through XchangeCore,
horspool@gns.cri.nz; WORDEN, C. B., Synergetics Inc., Pasadena, CA, enabling users to create merged datasets from multiple providers.
cbworden@usgs.gov; WALD, D. J., USGS, Golden, CO, wald@usgs.gov
Using the Macro-Element Method to Assess the Seismic Vulnerability of
Near-real time and scenario estimates of earthquake fatalities and economic losses
Masonry Aggregates: Large Scale Methodology
are extremely valuable for a range of response and planning applications; from
SEDDIKI, E., University of Tours, Tours, France, elmehdi.seddiki@etu.univ-
understanding the scale of a disaster for emergency management response (e.g.,
tours.fr; SERRHINI, K., University of Tours, Tours, France,
PAGER) through to loss estimations to inform an insurance company on the
kamal.serrhini@univ-tours.fr; MAIZIA, M., University of Tours, Tours,
potential loss to its portfolio. To effectively assist decision-making using these
France, mindjid.maizia@univ-tours.fr
models, not only is the mean loss important, but also the uncertainty in the loss
estimates. However, it is common practice in ground-motion based loss estimations The masonry building aggregates are a typical construction of historical centers
to neglect the uncertainty in the ground motion distributions and use only the of cities. Several post-seismic observations showed that the buildings do not
mean ground motions. To accurately treat the uncertainty in the ground motions have an independent structural behavior, but they interact amongst themselves,
when estimating losses for multiple sites, the spatial correlation of the intra- mainly for horizontal actions (Ferreira et al., 2012). Two different categories of
event residuals must be considered. We develop an extension for ShakeMap that assessing seismic vulnerability at urban scale are available: empirical and numerical
generates simulated ground motion fields that are conditional on the observational vulnerability assessment methods. The first method is based on observed damage
data and are also spatially correlated. By extending the ShakeMap framework, these after earthquakes correlated with the structural properties of buildings (ex:
observations can be either native or converted ground motion types (e.g., peak RISK-UE, 2004), whereas the second method is based on numerical models
ground motion or macroseismic intensity), which further reduces the uncertainty more or less representing the buildings (ex : FEMA, 2003). Some recent projects
in the ground motions when multiple data types are available. Furthermore, the aim to understand the behavior of the buildings within an aggregate but often
ShakeMap methodology combines the uncertainty from multiple data types and based on numerical calculation with idealized models where the buildings are
unknown source geometry to produce a single uncertainty map which allows a prototypes (Ulrich et al., 2012). In this work, a representative set of Nice (Fr,
comprehensive treatment of the uncertainty. This approach creates a suite of 06) aggregate buildings was selected following a multi-criteria statistical approach.
ground motion field realizations that have motions that match observation sites, Several databases were used to characterize the buildings in terms of geometric
but have random spatially-correlated motions elsewhere. Similarly, ShakeMap configuration, location and construction periods etc. In our model, the seismic
scenarios can employ random spatially-correlated motions throughout its spatial vulnerability of masonry aggregates is assessed by use of a macro-element method
extent. To carry this approach through to loss estimation, losses can be estimated (Lagomarsino et al., 2012). In this perspective, a nonlinear static (pushover)
for each ground motion field realization, thus allowing a suitable loss distribution analysis has been developed, in which a load pattern, based on the first mode of the
to be defined. building vibration, is applied to the studied structure. The effect bloc is estimated
by subjecting the isolated (selected building separately, intrinsic vulnerability)
and aggregated buildings (selected building in its context) to transverse load. As
Decision Support and Data Discovery Tools for Disaster Response – E-
observed by engineers during post-seismic field missions, the buildings at the
DECIDER & GeoGateway
extremities of an aggregate are more susceptible to be damaged. Indeed, contrary
GLASSCOE, M. T., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
to the buildings inside the aggregate, the building in the extremities of an aggregate
Margaret.T.Glasscoe@jpl.nasa.gov; DONNELLAN, A., California Institute
are not efficiently braced by the neighboring structures.
of Technology, Pasadena, CA, Andrea.Donnellan@jpl.nasa.gov; PARKER,
J. W., Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, Jay.W.Parker@jpl.nasa.gov;
GRANAT, R. A., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, The L’Aquila Trial: Acquittal After Conviction
Robert.A.Granat@jpl.nasa.gov; WON, P., Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, BRAUN, T., INGV-RM1, Arezzo, Italy, thomas.braun@ingv.it; AMATO,
pwon111@gmail.com; LYZENGA, G. A., California Institute of Technology, A., INGV-CNT, Roma, Italy, alessandro.amato@ingv.it; CULTRERA, G.,
Pasadena, CA, Gregory.A.Lyzenga@jpl.nasa.gov; PIERCE, M. E., Indiana INGV-RM1, Roma, Italy, giovanna.cultrera@ingv.it; DEMARTIN, M., INGV-
University, Bloomington, IN, marpierc@iu.edu; WANG, J., Indiana University, CNT, Roma, Italy, martina.demartin@ingv.it; DE MARTINI, P. M., INGV-
Bloomington, IN, wang208@iu.edu; GRANT LUDWIG, L., University of RM1, Roma, Italy, paolomarco.demartini@ingv.it; MARGHERITI, L., INGV-
California,Irvine, CA USA, lgrant@uci.edu; EGUCHI, R. T., ImageCat, Inc., CNT, Roma, Italy, lucia.margheriti@ingv.it; PONDRELLI, S., INGV-BO,
Long Beach, CA USA, rte@imagecatinc.com; HUYCK, C. K., ImageCat, Bologna, Italy, silvia.pondrelli@ingv.it; TODESCO, M., INGV-BO, Bologna,
Inc., Long Beach, CA USA, ckh@imagecatinc.com; HU, Z., ImageCat, Inc., Italy, micol.todesco@ingv.it; BONACCORSO, A.; INGV-CT; COCCO, M.,
Long Beach, CA USA zh@imagecatinc.com; CHEN, Z., University of Missouri, GALADINI, F., PANTOSTI, D., INGV-RM1; MELETTI, C., INGV-PI;
Kansas City, MO USA, chenzhiq@umkc.edu; YODER, M. R., University of NOSTRO, C., INGV-CNT; PACOR, F., INGV-MI; QUARENI, F., INGV-BO
California, Davis, CA USA, mryoder@ucdavis.edu; RUNDLE, J. B., University
of California, Davis, CA USA brundle@ucdavis.edu; ROSINSKI, A., California On April 6, 2009 a M6.3 earthquake devastated L’Aquila and its surroundings,
Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA USA, Anne.Rosinski@conservation.ca.gov causing 309 victims and more than 1500 casualties. On October 22, 2012 seven
experts, were convicted of manslaughter of 29 people earthquake victims. The
Providing actionable data for situational awareness following an earthquake “seven” took part to a meeting of the “Commissione Nazionale dei Grandi Rischi”,
is critical to decision makers in order to improve their ability to anticipate CGR (High Risk National Commission) held on March 31, 2009, and were
requirements and provide appropriate resources for response. E-DECIDER all sentenced to 6 years in prison and to the payment of a 7 million Euros
(Emergency Data Enhanced Cyber-Infrastructure for Disaster Evaluation and compensation. After continuous perceptible seismic activity at L’Aquila, a CGR-
Response) is a decision support system producing remote sensing and geophysical meeting was arranged to front spreading rumours about an impending earthquake,
modeling products that are relevant to the emergency preparedness and response predicted to occur at Sulmona (50 km SE of L’Aquila). The dissemination of
communities and serves as a gateway to enable the delivery of actionable this false prediction caused growing concerns among the population and was
information to these communities. GeoGateway is a data product search and the main reason for the convocation of the CGR on March 31, 2009. In the
analysis gateway for scientific discovery, field use, and disaster response focused verdict’s motivations the “seven” were considered guilty of manslaughter for
on NASA UAVSAR and GPS data that integrates with fault data, seismicity “having conducted the prediction, the prevention and the seismic risk evaluation
and models. Key information on the nature and scope of damages, or Essential in a too general and approximative manner” and “for having issued incomplete,

on 09 October 2018
imprecise and contradictory information on the nature, causes, dangers and future shaking. Such a comparison exploits the uniqueness of the Italian earthquake
developments of the seismic activity in the area in question”. According to catalogue, a data set covering more than a millennium with a satisfactory
the prosecution, “the CGR-meeting resulted in a reassuring message”, conveyed completeness level (M>5) that warrants this kind of analysis. Seismic hazard
through local and national media – that convinced L’Aquila citizens that no strong maps seek to predict ground shaking that may actually occur. Therefore, maps
earthquake could happen in the following days. On November 10, 2014, the appeal based on NDSHA – both standard and time-dependent scenarios – are cross-
court acquitted six of the seven formerly convicted experts for their crime does not compared with past and newly available hazard maps for the territory of Italy,
exist. For the seventh - De Bernardinis - the court commuted the trial sentence to as well as against documented seismic activity observed in reality. The final
two years of imprisonment, suspending the sentence and saving it from mentioning Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) results and the most
in his penal record. The motivation of the appeal court decision is expected for the recent version of Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project
beginning of February and will better clarify the reasons for acquitting the scientists maps, along with the reference hazard maps for the Italian seismic code, all
and sentencing the vice-head of the Civil Protection. We will discuss the outcome obtained by PSHA, are considered in this comparative analysis. The quantitative
in the presentation. comparison shows that probabilistic maps have the tendency to overestimate
the hazard, with respect to the corresponding neo-deterministic maps and
reality.
Engineering and Public Safety Concerns raised by Seismic Errors in Seismic Hazard Assessment are Creating Huge Human Losses
BELA, J., NASW - Freelance, Portland, OR, sasquake@gmail.com
Hazard Assessment Methods
Poster Session · Wednesday · 22 April · Exhibit Hall A The current practice of representing earthquake hazards to the public based upon
their perceived likelihood or probability of occurrence is proven now by the global
record of actual earthquakes to be not only erroneous and unreliable but also
How Long Time Will We Go with so Many Uncertainties in Evaluation of too deadly! More than 700,000 people have now lost their lives (2000-2011),
Hazard and Seismic Risk? wherein 11 of the World’s Deadliest Earthquakes have occurred in locations
MARMUREANU, G., National Institute of Earth Physics, Magurele, Ilfov, where probability-based seismic hazard assessments had predicted only low seismic
Romania, marmur@infp.ro; CIOFLAN, C. O., National Institute of Earth hazard. Unless seismic hazard assessment and the setting of minimum earthquake
Physics, Magurele, Ilfov, Romania, cioflan@infp.ro; MARMUREANU, A., design safety standards for buildings and bridges are based on a more realistic
National Institute of Earth Physics, Magurele, Ilfov, Romania, marmura@infp.ro; deterministic recognition of "what can happen" rather than on what mathematical
MANEA, E. F., National Institute of Earth Physics, Magurele, Ilfov, Romania, models suggest is "most likely to happen" İsuch future huge human losses can only
flory.manea88@gmail.com be expected to continue! The actual earthquake events that did occur were at or
near the maximum potential-size event (MCE) that either already had occurred in
Two methods are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment: probabilistic
the past;or were geologically known to be possible. Haiti’s M7 earthquake, 2010
(PSHA) and deterministic (DSHA). PSHA assumptions: (1)-Constant in time
(with > 222,000 fatalities) meant the dead could not even be buried with dignity.
average occurrence rate of earthquakes;(2)-Single point source; (3)-Variability
Japan’s catastrophic Tohoku earthquake, 2011; a M 9 Megathrust earthquake,
of ground motion at a site is independent; (4)-Poisson behavior of earthquake
unleashed a tsunami that not only obliterated coastal communities along the
occurrences (Cornell,1968).It is a probabilistic method and "when the causality
northern Japanese coast, but also claimed > 20,000 lives. This tsunami flooded
dies, its place is taken by probability, prestigious term meant to define the
nuclear reactors at Fukushima, causing 4 explosions and 3 reactors to melt down.
inability of us to predict the course of nature”(N.Bohr). PSHA was developed
But while this history of huge human losses due to erroneous and misleading
from mathematical statistics and is not based on earthquake science and become
seismic hazard estimates, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unlived; if faced
a pure numerical “creation”(Wang,PAGEOPH168, 2011). An important source
of errors in PSHA and DSHA came from a key component: the ground motion with courage and a more realistic deterministic estimate of "what is possible"İ, it
prediction equation (GMPE) which describes a relationship between a ground "need not be lived again." An objective testing of the results of global probability
motion parameter (PGA,MMI etc.), magnitude M, distance R and uncertainty. based seismic hazard maps against real occurrences has never been done by GSHAP
The nonlinear behavior of soils during strong earthquakes is not taken into team; even though the obvious inadequacy of the GSHAP map could have been
account. But, how many cities/metropolitan areas in seismic regions are located established in the course of a simple check beforehand.
on rock? Most of them are settled on soil deposits. The spectral amplification
factors (SAF) decrease with increasing magnitude of earthquakes and these values Post-Tohoku Views of Seismic Hazard in Japan: Implications for Loss
(from records of Vrancea depth events) are far of those given by R.G.1.60 of Estimation and Risk Management
the U.S.Atomic Energy Commission and IAEA Vienna. A characteristic of the THENHAUS, P. C., CoreLogic EQECAT, Oakland, CA, pthenhaus@
nonlinearity is a systematic decrease in variability of peak accelerations with corelogic.com; BOLTON, M. K., CoreLogic EQECAT, Oakland, CA,
increasing earthquake magnitude. Observing a strong nonlinear dependence of mbolton@corelogic.com; CAMPBELL, K. W., CoreLogic EQECAT, Oakland,
SAF on earthquake magnitude for 65 stations on extra-Carpathian area, the CA, kcampbell@corelogic.com; GUPTA, N., CoreLogic EQECAT, Oakland,
authors propose an alternative approach based on the use of SAF instead of GMPE CA, nitgupta@corelogic.com
for sites located on soil deposits.
In response to the devastating 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake, the
Seismic Hazard Maps and Real Seismicity for the Italian Territory Earthquake Research Committee of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research
PERESAN, A., DMG - University of Trieste and ICTP, Trieste, Italy, Promotion (ERC-HERP) and the National Research Institute for Earth Science
aperesan@units.it; NEKRASOVA, A., IEPT - Russian Academy of Sciences, and Disaster Prevention (NIED), produced three national probabilistic seismic
Moscow, Russian Federation, nastia@mitp.ru; KOSSOBOKOV, V. I., IEPT - hazard models in 2013 in recognition of the uncertainty of future earthquakes
Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation, volodya@mitp.ru; in Japan. Model 1 is the primary seismic source model on which the 2013 post-
PANZA, G. F., DMG - University of Trieste and ICTP, Trieste, Italy, Tohoku seismic hazard maps for Japan are based, and represents a historically-based
panza@units.it view of seismic hazard consistent with prior Japan national seismic hazard maps.
Model 2 was developed as an alternative to Model 1 that is intended to account for
A comparison of hazard assessment methodologies must start with a simple greater uncertainty than Model 1 by speculating what additional large earthquakes
check of their products (e.g. hazard maps) against the existing evidence, i.e., might be possible in the longer term. Model 3 is an attempt to encompass the
the reliable historical and contemporary observations. A formal characterization occurrence of rare large earthquakes, even larger than Tohoku-oki, that have
of the capability of different earthquake hazard maps to describe ground extreme loss impacts. We developed yet a fourth seismic hazard and tsunami model
shaking from real strong earthquakes is needed for a sound quantification that is based on Model 1 but which further accounts for the needs of the risk
of costs/benefits, which accounts for both over- and under-estimates of the management community. Loss analyses indicate that approximately 90% of the
hazard. Quantitative assessment of maps performances is a major step in the average annual economic loss from earthquakes in Japan is contributed by only four
scientific process of their revision and possible improvement. Cross-checking with of the 12 Catastrophe Risk Evaluation and Standardizing Target Accumulation
available observations and independent physics based models should become an (CRESTA) zones, irrespective of the post-Tohoku seismic hazard model that is
essential step towards any responsible assessment of seismic risk. The existing used. Most notable in this regard are CRESTA zones 5 and 6, encompassing Tokyo
maps from the classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), as well southward through Nagoya, because of the large population and development in
as those from the neo-deterministic analysis (NDSHA), are considered to this region and also the large hazard contributions from megathrust earthquakes
exemplify possibilities of a comparative analysis versus the observed ground on the Nankai Trough and Sagami Trough subduction zones.

on 09 October 2018
Source Scaling Relations of Subduction Earthquakes for Strong Ground GONZALO MONTALVA, G., Universidad de Concepción, Concepción,
Motion and Tsunami Prediction Chile, gmontalva@gmail.com; CECILIO MORALES, C., Fundación
SKARLATOUDIS, A.,AECOM,LosAngeles,CA,andreas.skarlatoudis@aecom. Venezolana de Investigaciones Sismológicas, Caracas, Venezuela, cecilioj.
com; SOMERVILLE, P., AECOM, Los Angeles, CA, paul.somerville@aecom. morales@gmail.com; PIRCHINER, M., Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica
com; THIO, H. K., AECOM, Los Angeles, CA, hong.kie.thio@aecom.com e Ciências Atmosféricas, São Paulo, Brasil; CARLOS, J., Singaucho Armas,
Instituto Geofísico, Quito, Ecuador; VIRACHUCA, C., Instituto Geofísico,
To simulate strong ground motions and tsunamis from subduction earthquakes,
Quito, Ecuador; WEATHERILL, G., GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italia
we need to develop earthquake source scaling relations over a very broad frequency
range. We compiled a database of fault rupture models of interface earthquakes that This study takes place in the context of the Global Earthquake Model
occurred in the major subduction zones with moment magnitudes ranging from M project (http://www.globalquakemodel.org/), and more specifically in its
6.75 to M 9.17 and used it to study the scaling with seismic moment of rupture width South American component GEM-SARA (http://www.globalquakemodel.org/
and rupture area, total asperity area, and average and maximum slip. We considered what/regions/south-america/). The global aim of the project is to build a seismic
unconstrained models and self-similar models, and found that the differences in data hazard model atthe global scale. Our team, involving researchers from Bolivia, Brazil,
fitbetween them were notstatisticallysignificant, so we prefer to retain the simplicity Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, and Venezuela, focus on the particular aspect of strong
of using the self-similar models. For rupture area, the mean values are within +1 ground-motion recorded data and the comparison with Ground-Motion Prediction
standard deviation of those reported in Murotani et al. (2008; 2013) while for the Equations (GMPEs) at the South American scale. We collected as much as possible
average slip they are similar to but lower than those in Murotani et al. We examined strong-motion data for the various tectonic contexts one finds in South America:
the hypothesis of saturation of rupture width (i.e. down-dip rupture width stops shallow crustal seismicity, subduction areas involving interface and in-slab events,
growing beyond a certain magnitude resulting in constant width). Although there and stable continental regions. The processing was done on a record-to-record basis
are strong indications thatthis assumption is valid, there are still fewdatato constrain to determine the minimum and maximum frequencies from signal-over-noise ratio
the behavior of the scaling relations at high magnitudes. We also characterized the of Fourier spectra. Then the records are corrected for the mean, trend, tapered and
slip models using wavenumber spectral models of the slip distribution. We fit a an acausal Butterworth filter is applied. The processing is homogeneous for all the
2D Butterworth filter function to the FFT amplitudes of the slip distribution to data. The metadata describing the earthquake, the site and the record associated with
estimate the corner wavenumbers in each direction. The corner wavenumbers follow the data are also collected. For the events, hypocentral locations, magnitudes, nodal
a self-similar scaling law with M. The along strike coefficient of the scaling law is very plane orientation, fault dimension and position of the hypocenter on the fault are
similar to that obtained for crustal earthquakes (Somerville et al., 1999), while the considered. For the sites, due to the verylimited information available, aclassification
down-dip coefficient has a lower value. Hence, for a given magnitude, subduction basedonH/Vratiosandvaluesofkappa(high-frequencyattenuationcharacteristics)
earthquake slip models exhibit heterogeneity in slip that is similar along strike but is used. The main objective of this work is to present the first version of the database
greater down-dip compared with crustal earthquakes. and preliminary results of the next steps. Indeed the goal of our group within the
GEM-SARA project is to define a logic-tree for PSHA analysis in South America.
Consequently, the database will be used to compare with GMPEs and try to identify
Engineering Seismology and Ground Motion Prediction the most appropriate GMPEs to use and assign weights.
The 2015 Update of the New Zealand Strong Motion Database
VAN HOUTTE, C., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, c.vanhoutte@
Response Spectra Ground-Motion Prediction Equation Development Based gns.cri.nz; KAISER, A., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, a.kaiser@
on Empirical Fourier Amplitude Spectra Model and Calibrated Duration gns.cri.nz; MCVERRY, G., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, g.
Model: The PEER NGA-East Example mcverry@gns.cri.nz; PERRIN, N., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand,
HOLLENBACK, J. C., Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, n.perrin@gns.cri.nz; BOURGUIGNON, S., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New
Berkeley, CA, jhollenback@berkeley.edu; KUEHN, N., Pacific Earthquake Zealand, s.bourguignon@gns.cri.nz; BANNISTER, S., GNS Science, Lower
Engineering Research Center, Berkeley, CA, kuehn@berkeley.edu; GOULET, Hutt, New Zealand, s.bannister@gns.cri.nz; HOLDEN, C., GNS Science,
C., Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, Berkeley, CA, goulet@ Lower Hutt, New Zealand, c.holden@gns.cri.nz; WOTHERSPOON, L.,
berkeley.edu; ABRAHAMSON, N. A., Pacific Gas and Electric, San Francisco, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand, l.wotherspoon@auckland.
CA, NAA2@pge.com ac.nz; GERSTENBERGER, M., GNS Science, LowerHutt, New Zealand,
m.gerstenberger@gns.cri.nz; BEHR, Y., ETH, Zürich, Switzerland.
We present a methodology for developing ground-motion prediction equations
(GMPEs) for pseudo spectral acceleration (PSA) in which the majority of the The 2015 New Zealand strong-motion database contains over 4,000 strong-motion
model development is performed on the Fourier Amplitude Spectrum (FAS) of recordings from 1966-2015, and updates the previous database from 1995. There
acceleration. This methodology was implemented for development of GMPEs in have been many large magnitude earthquakes in New Zealand in the time since the
central and eastern North America (CENA) as part of the Pacific Earthquake previousdataset,includingsubductioninterfaceeventssuchastheM7.6DuskySound,
Engineering Research center (PEER) NGA-East Project. Traditionally, GMPEs M7.2 Fiordland, M6.7 George Sound and M6.1 Thompson Sound earthquakes,
for PSA are developed using PSA values themselves. However, working in FAS intra-slab events such as the M6.6 Gisborne and M6.3 Eketahuna earthquakes,
space allows a better integration of seismological models for extrapolation purposes. and shallow crustal events such as the M7.1 Darfield, M6.3 Christchurch, M6
This is critical given the paucity of data available in CENA. This methodology Sumner, M6.5 Cook Strait, and the M6.6 Lake Grassmere. Earthquakes in the
requires three major components: an empirically defined model for the FAS of catalogue have been systematically relocated using the most recent 3-D Q model for
acceleration, a calibrated duration model, and random vibration theory (RVT) New Zealand, then classified according to their source category i.e. shallow crustal,
peak factors. These components are used together with RVT to generate PSA from upper mantle, intra-slab and subduction interface events. 13 of the new events in
predicted FAS. The empirical FAS model is derived frequency by frequency, as is the database have finite-fault models available. The database consists of uniformly
commonly done for conventional PSA GMPEs. The advantage of developing the processed accelerograms, as well as RotD50 and RotD100 5%-damped response
FAS model in this manner is that there is no implicit assumption of spectral shape. spectra between 0.01 and 10 s. The response spectra have 100 equally-spaced points
The calibrated duration model is developed such that the duration of a given record per decade on a log scale. Each recording has been processed and bandpass filtered
is defined as that which optimizes the match between PSA determined with RVT using a sinusoidal transition filter. Site period, Vs30 and depth to bedrock metadata
relative to PSA computed directly from time series rather than a more traditional have been updated for more than 200 sites in the GeoNet network incorporating
definition of ground motion duration (e.g. D5−95 ). newsite-specific datawhere available, and the qualityof each site metadataparameter
has been evaluated. The database will be used to update the New Zealand seismic
The South American Strong-Motion Database in the Framework of the GEM- hazard model for ground-motion prediction.
SARA Project
MARIA CRISTINA DIMATÉ CASTELLANOS, M., Universidad Nacional de Graizer-14 Ground Motion Predication Equations for The Central Eastern
Colombia, Bogota, Colombia, mcdimatec@unal.edu.co; LUISA FERNANDA United States
CASTILLO, L., Servicio Geologico Colombiano, Bogota, Colombia, lcastillo@ GRAIZER, V., U.S Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC,
sgc.gov.co; STÉPHANE DROUET, S., Observatorio Nacional, Rio de Vladimir.Graizer@nrc.gov
Janeiro, Brasil, stephane@on.br; GONZALO ANTONIO FERNANDEZ
MARAÑON, G., Observatorio San Calixto, La Paz, Bolivia, tonino.gafm@ New ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) G-14 model for the Central
gmail.com; CARLOS LOZANO, C., Servicio Geologico Colombiano, Bogota, Eastern United States (CEUS) is developed based on the modular filter based
Colombia, carloslozano53@gmail.com; ESTELA MINAYA, E., Observatorio approach developed by Graizer and Kalkan (2007, 2009) for active tectonic
San Calixto, La Paz, Bolivia, eminaya@observatoriosancalixto.com; environment. The G-14 model is based on the NGA-East database for the

on 09 October 2018
horizontal peak ground acceleration and 5%-damped pseudo spectral acceleration spectral periods, the average resposne spectra from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake
(PSA) RotD50 component (Goulet et al., 2014). In contrast to the active tectonic tend to be reasonably consistent with those predicted by GMPEs. However, the
environment the database for the CEUS is not sufficient to create purely empirical response spectra from the Lushan earthquake are typicdally 50% of the GMPE
GMPE covering the range of magnitudes and distances required for seismic hazard predicted values, and the difference is larger for the other earthquakes with a
assessments. Data collected in the NGA-East database are sparse and cover mostly smaller magnitudedown to about 4.5. These results suggest that the magnitude
range of Mw<6.0 with limited number of near-fault recordings. The functional scaling in this part of China may differ significantly from those of the GMPEs
form of the G-14 GMPE is derived from filters representing a particular physical compared in this article.
phenomenon affecting the seismic wave radiation from the source. Main changes
in the functional form for the CEUS model relative to the WUS model are a shift An Updated Global Model for Prediction of Seismically Induced Landslides
of maximum frequency of the PSA spectrum toward higher frequencies and an KIM, B., Risk Management Solutions, Newark, CA, Byungmin.Kim@rms.com;
increase in the response spectrum amplitude. Site correction is developed based SANTHA, R., Risk Management Solutions, Noida, India, Rubini.Santha@
on multiple runs of different profiles through SHAKE-type and RVT approaches. rms.com; SHOME, N., Risk Management Solutions, Newark, CA, Nilesh.
Site amplification functions are calculated for different VS30 relative to hard rock Shome@rms.com
definition used in nuclear industry (Vs=2800 m/s). The number of predictors used
in the model is limited to a few measurable parameters: moment magnitude, closest Landslides are one of the common consequences of earthquakes, often resulting in
distance to the fault, VS30, and anelastic attenuation factor Q0. Incorporating Q0 significant damage to structures and potential loss of lives. Therefore, estimating
as an input parameter allows adjustments based on the regional crustal properties. the locations and severities of landslides is an essential part of a comprehensive
The model covers the range of Mw from 4.0 to 8.2, distances of up to 1000 km, seismic risk assessment. Nowicki et al. (2014) recently proposed a predictive model
VS30 from 450 to 2800 m/s and periods from 0.01 to 10 s. G-14 model is compared for landslide probability. They regressed landslide occurrence as a binary variable
with current CEUS GMPEs. (i.e., landslide and no landslide) against a wide variety of other variables such as
peak ground acceleration (PGA), soil friction angle (a soil strength parameter),
Update of the Graizer-Kalkan Ground-Motion Prediction Equation for Shallow slope angle, and compound topographic index (CTI). We aim to build a model
Crustal Continental Earthquakes with a better predictive capability by expanding the observation data and by
KALKAN, E., U.S. Geological Survey, ; GRAIZER, V., U.S. Nuclear Regulatory including other high-resolution parameters. We incorporate five inventory data
sets that are considered to be most comprehensive and/or complete (1989 M6.9
Commission,
Loma Prieta, California; 1994 M6.7 Northridge, California; 1999 M7.6 Chi-
A ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) for computing medians and Chi, Taiwan; 2005 M7.6 Kashmir, Pakistan; and 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan, China).
standard deviations of peak-ground acceleration and five-percent damped pseudo- In addition to the predictive parameters used by Nowicki et al. (2014), we also
spectral response acceleration ordinates of randomly oriented maximum horizontal consider other high-resolution parameters such as elevation, relative elevation
components of ground motion was developed by Graizer and Kalkan (2007, 2009) (relative to mean elevation within 500-m radius), slope roughness, mean annual
(GK07-09) to be used for seismic hazard analyses and engineering applications. This precipitation, and normalized difference vegetation index (indicates existence of
GMPE was derived from the expanded Next Generation of Attenuation-West1 live vegetation). We determine the best combination of variables based on the
database (Power et al., 2006). In this study, this GMPE is revised to include an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and assessed accuracy using a confusion
anelastic attenuation term as a function of quality-factor (Q0) in order to capture matrix. The proposed model shows lower AIC values and higher accuracies than
regional differences in large-distance attenuation, and a new frequency-dependent the Nowicki et al. (2014) model. The distribution of the landslide probabilities
sedimentary basin scaling term as a function of depth to the 1.5 km/s shear- predicted by the proposed model matches well with the landslide locations
wave velocity iso-surface to improve ground motion predictions for sites on deep observed during the individual earthquakes. Furthermore, the proposed model
sedimentary basins. The new model (GK15), developed to be simple, is applicable predicts higher probabilities within the landslide extent, and lower probabilities
for the western United States and other shallow crustal continental regions in active outside the landslide extents, compared to those predicted by Nowicki et al. (2014).
tectonic environments for earthquakes with moment magnitudes 5.0-8.0, distances
0-250 km, average shear wave velocities 200-1,300 m/s, and spectral periods 0.01-5 An Empirical Global Model for Predicting Seismically Induced Landslides in
s (Graizer and Kalkan, 2015). Directivity effects are not explicitly modelled, but are Near Real-Time
included through the variability of the data. Our aleatory variability model captures NOWICKI, M. A., Indiana University, Bloomington, IN USA, anowicki28@
inter-event variability, which decreases with magnitude, and increases with distance. gmail.com; HAMBURGER, M. W., Indiana University, Bloomington, IN USA,
The mixed effects residuals analysis shows that the GK15 reveals no trend with hamburg@indiana.edu; WALD, D. J., U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO USA,
respect to the independent parameters. The GK15 is a significant improvement wald@usgs.gov; ROBESON, S. M., Indiana University, Bloomington, IN USA,
over GK07-09, and provides a demonstrably reliable description of ground-motion srobeson@indiana.edu; HEARNE, M., U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO
amplitudes recorded from shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions USA, hearne@usgs.gov
over a wide range of magnitudes, distances, and site conditions.
We present a statistical model that can be used to predict seismically induced
Unexpected Low Damage in the 2013-4-20 Lushan Earthquake, a Possible landslides across the globe in near real-time for use with the USGS Prompt
Reginal Effect in Magnitude Scaling Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. This study
LAN, X., Institute of Crustal Dynamic, Beijing, China, lan_xiaowen@sina.com; builds on a pilot study using data from four major landslide-triggering earthquakes:
ZHAO, J. X., The Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, China; LU, M., 1976 Guatemala, 1994 Northridge, California, 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, and
Institute of Crustal Dynamic, Beijing, China; SUN, X., The Southwest Jiaotong 2008 Wenchuan, China. Our improved model includes observations from
University, Chengdu, China approximately ten other events from a variety of tectonic and geomorphic settings
for which we have obtained landslide inventories. Using logistic regression,
In the 2013-4-20 Lushan earthquake (MW=6.6) in Sichuan China, Despite the this global database is used to build a predictive model of the distribution
fatality and the large damage cost for a moderately large event, nearly all colapsed and probability of landslide occurrence by combining shaking estimates from the
buildings are adobe houses that caused most death and injuries. A huge number of ShakeMap Atlas with globally available landslide susceptibility proxies. We include
houses built by local residents using mud-bricks and good-quality motar were badly a refined topographic slope dataset, a proxy for temporal changes in soil wetness
damaged but did not colapse. Among four near-source strong-motion records (less by utilizing a standardized precipitation index, and a higher resolution global
than 20km from the fault plane), one record has a PGA over 1.0g and the three geology map than earlier work. Our initial results indicate strong correlations
others have a PGA close to 0.4g, from which we would expect much higher number between landslide occurrence and peak ground acceleration and maximum slope,
of fatalities and building collapses in the immeidate areas around these strong- with weaker dependence on other material properties. The major contribution
motion stations. We have compared the response spectra with two of the Next of the empirical model is the incorporation of near real-time estimates of ground
Generation Attenuation (NGA) models and a model for Japan, and we found that shaking, together with globally available landslide susceptibility proxies, to allow
PGA and spectra at very short periods, on average, were consistent with the ground- forecasting of landslide probability within minutes of the occurrence of a major
motion levels predicted by these ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). earthquake. This approach can also be applied to scenario earthquakes to help
However, at spectral periods over about 0.3s, the respose spectra, on average, are assess probabilities for future landslides around the globe in areas of known
about 50% those predicted by these GMPEs. We used the records from the after- seismic risk. Ultimately, we hope to superimpose landslide probabilities on maps
shocks and the mainshock of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (MW=7.9) and the of population and infrastructure to estimate losses associated with landslides and
records from the 2013 Lushan mainshock as a resonable set of records to compare apply the model to probabilistic ground motions within the U.S. (based on the
with these GMPEs. We found that the average residuals for each earthquake, 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps) to produce a coarse, nationwide landslide
were highly biased with moment magnitude at spectral periods over 0.3s. At many susceptibility map.

on 09 October 2018
A Complete Site-Specific Hazard Analysis for a Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) Tank US Geological Survey, Golden, CO, rbriggs@usgs.gov; PERSONIUS, S. F., US
Station Considering Associated Uncertainties Geological Survey, Golden, CO, personius@usgs.gov; REITMAN, N. G., US
HAJI-SOLTANI, A., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, hjsltani@ Geological Survey, Golden, CO, nreitman@usgs.gov; HISCOCK, A. I., Utah
memphis.edu; PEZESHK, S., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, Geological Survey, Salt Lake City, UT, adamhiscock@utah.gov; DEVORE, J.
spezeshk@memphis.edu; HOSSEINI, M., AECOM Corporation, Los Angeles, D., Ohio State University, Dublin, OH; GRAY, H.J., US Geological Survey,
CA USA, mehrdad.hosseini@urs.com Denver, CO, hgray@usgs.gov; MAHAN, S., US Geological Survey, Denver, CO,
smahan@usgs.gov
The purpose of this study is to perform a complete site-specific hazard analysis
for a Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) tank station located in Louisiana. For the The 350-km-long Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) consists of west-dipping normal
first phase of this study, we will perform a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis fault segments at the eastern boundary of the Basin and Range Province, Utah.
(PSHA) at the bedrock. We will use both the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Paleoseismic trench data generally support single-segment surface ruptures during
Program codes and the EZ-FRISK software to perform PSHA. The result of large (M=7) Holocene (<11 ka) earthquakes, but also permit longer ruptures
the PSHA will be used to develop site-specific horizontal and vertical response that span structural segment boundaries. To improve rupture length estimates
spectra for Operating Basis Earthquake (OBE) and Safe Shutdown Earthquake and evaluate the persistence of Holocene rupture termination at central WFZ
(SSE) conditions. As an alternative approach, we will also develop a Monte Carlo segment boundaries, we investigated sites ˜1 km north and ˜1 km south of the
approach for the estimation of seismic hazard. Phase two of the study is to choose boundary between the Salt Lake City (SLCS) and Provo (PS) segments, a ˜7 km-
appropriate ground-motions and the scaling procedure. Various state-of-the-art long transfer fault. At the Alpine site, located on the northern PS, we excavated a
procedures will be considered and compared. The earthquake database in this study 33-m-long trench across an 8-m-high fault scarp and exposed evidence of faulting
includes both available recorded ground-motions and simulated ground-motions. in stratified sandy to gravelly alluvial fan deposits. In this trench, the WFZ is
We will use both SMSIM and EXSIM computer programs for simulating ground- expressed as a 5- to 40-cm-wide shear zone that dips ˜70◦ SW. A 2- to 4-m-wide
motions at the reference bedrock. The third phase of this study is to perform antithetic fault zone with <0.5 m of displacement is observed ˜10 m outboard of
site-response analyses. We will perform downhole seismic surveys to evaluate the primary shear zone. We document evidence for six surface-faulting earthquakes
the soil profile, and the potential for soil liquefaction will be investigated. The based on colluvial-wedge stratigraphy, fault terminations, and soils that formed
variability in soil thickness, the shear-wave velocity, and soil dynamic properties during periods of scarp slope stability between earthquakes. Individual colluvial
will be considered. Ground motions will be computed at the ground surface wedges are up to ˜0.5- to 0.8-m-thick, suggesting ˜1–2 m of displacement per event.
level using both equivalent linear and nonlinear approaches using the computer A distinctive charcoal-rich sand bed is vertically separated ˜7 m across the fault
programs SHAKE91 and NOAH, respectively. Finally, design response spectra will zone, similar to the separation of the ground surface. Ages from 14 radiocarbon
be calculated considering different combination of ground-motions from available and 18 luminescence samples will provide constraints on the timing of individual
actual data and simulated ground-motions. earthquakes, and facilitate comparison of our new data to existing paleoseismic
histories of the SLCS and PS. These data will help resolve the timing and northern
extent of PS ruptures and determine whether multi-segment (SLCS-PS) ruptures
Can NGA-West2 GMPES Be Used In Europe?: Comparison of CB14 with ASB14 or spillover ruptures from the SLCS have occurred. These findings will permit a
and Bea14 more accurate characterization of the earthquake hazard in the Wasatch Front
CAMPBELL, K. W., CoreLogic EQECAT, Oakland, CA, kcampbell@ region.
corelogic.com; BOZORGNIA, Y., University of California, Berkeley, CA,
yousef@berkeley.edu
There have been several statistical and other studies that have concluded that the Multiple Holocene Surface-Faulting Earthquakes at the Corner Canyon
2008 NGA-West1 ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) can be used Trench Site on the Salt Lake City Segment of the Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah
in Europe and the Middle East as well as many other active tectonic regions. In DUROSS, C. B., U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO, cduross@usgs.gov;
this study, we compare our newly developed 2014 NGA-West2 GMPE for active BENNETT, S. E. K., U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO,
tectonic regions (CB14) with two 2014 GMPEs developed for pan-Europe as part sekbennett@usgs.gov; PERSONIUS, S. F., U.S. Geological Survey, Golden,
of the European SIGMA project (ASB14 and Bea14). This comparison is done in CO, personius@usgs.gov; GOLD, R. D., U.S. Geological Survey, Golden,
terms of the predicted effects of distance scaling (attenuation), magnitude scaling, CO, rgold@usgs.gov; BRIGGS, R. W., U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO,
style-of-faulting, linear and nonlinear site effects, and response-spectral shape, as rbriggs@usgs.gov; HISCOCK, A. I., Utah Geological Survey, Salt Lake City,
well as comparing residuals from the European models with respect to the CB14 UT, adamhiscock@utah.gov; REITMAN, N. G., U.S. Geological Survey,
database. All models characterize earthquake size in terms of moment magnitude, Golden, CO, nreitman@usgs.gov; DEVORE, J. D., Ohio State University,
site response in terms of the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m Dublin, OH, jrd1185@gmail.com; MAHAN, S. A., U.S. Geological Survey,
of the site (Vs30), and, except for Bea14, nonlinear site effects in terms of Vs30 and Denver, CO, smahan@usgs.gov
the amplitude of PGA on a specified reference rock site condition. The European
GMPEs use different finite-fault distance metrics, which are easily accounted for The 350-km-long Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) forms the eastern boundary of the
by specifying the 3-D rupture scenarios used in the comparison. Preliminary results Basin and Range Province in northern Utah. Holocene paleoseismic data and
indicate that, although the median estimates are relatively similar in the parameter prominent geometric and structural complexities along the fault define five central
ranges where the models are valid, the total standard deviations of the European fault segments; however, uncertainty remains in the length of past ruptures, and
models are systematically larger than those estimated by CB14 by about 0.05–0.1 thus, whether the fault complexities have consistently acted as barriers to rupture.
at moderate-to-large magnitudes. This difference can lead to significantly larger To evaluate the rupture history of the WFZ, we excavated trenches across the 40-
estimated probabilistic ground-motion amplitudes at moderate-to-long return km-long Salt Lake City segment (SLCS) and 59-km-long Provo segment (PS)–
periods. The opposite observation is found for short spectral periods and small normal faults linked by a 7-km-long cross fault. We investigated two sites within
magnitudes, the latter of which is less important for engineering. These differences ˜1 km of the cross fault: the Corner Canyon site on the southernmost SLCS
are likely the result of the European models assuming magnitude-independent and the Alpine site on the northernmost PS. Here, we present paleoseismic data
(homoscedastic) aleatory variability and using fewer large-magnitude recordings to for the Corner Canyon site. At the Corner Canyon site, we excavated a 39-
constrain both magnitude scaling and aleatory variability than CB14. m-long trench across a 9-m-high fault scarp and exposed evidence of faulting
in poorly stratified sand reworked from Lake Bonneville highstand lacustrine
deposits. The WFZ is expressed as a prominent shear zone that dips ˜60–70◦
W and forms a 20-m-wide graben with east-dipping antithetic faults. At least
six post-Bonneville (<18 ka) surface-faulting earthquakes ruptured the site based
How Reliable Are Reconstructions and Models of on colluvial-wedge stratigraphy, fault terminations, and weakly to well-developed
Surface-Rupturing Earthquakes? soil A horizons formed during periods of slope stability between earthquakes.
Poster Session · Wednesday · 22 April · Exhibit Hall A Individual colluvial wedges have maximum thicknesses of 0.5–0.9 m, suggesting
˜1–2 m of displacement per event. We will use the ages from 20 radiocarbon and
11 luminescence samples to constrain the timing of individual earthquakes, and
History of Six Surface-Faulting Holocene Earthquakes At the Alpine Trench compare our new data to existing paleoseismic histories for the SLCS and PS.
Site, Northern Provo Segment, Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah These data will help resolve the timing and extent of ruptures on the SLCS and
BENNETT, S. E. K., US Geological Survey, Golden, CO, sekbennett@usgs.gov; the potential for synchronous or spillover rupture on the SLCS and PS. Ultimately,
DUROSS, C. B., US Geological Survey, Golden, CO, cduross@usgs.gov; GOLD, our results will permit more accurate characterizations of the earthquake hazard in
R. D., US Geological Survey, Golden, CO, rgold@usgs.gov; BRIGGS, R. W., the Wasatch Front region.

on 09 October 2018
Paleoseismology of the Northern Segments of the Great Salt Lake Fault, Utah geodetically determined slip rates, with rates from geologic observations reported
DINTER, D. A., University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, david.dinter@utah.edu; to be twice as fast as those reported from geodetic data. Expanding upon the
PECHMANN, J. C., University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, pechmann@ existing slip rate data to include older offsets is necessary for understanding this
seis.utah.edu discrepancy and assessing the earthquake hazard that this fault section poses to the
Los Angeles area. Earthquake hazard assessments based solely on the most recent
We used high resolution seismic reflection data, including 747 km of new data (<2.5kyr) slip rate data may be inaccurate if the rate of slip has varied over time.
that we collected during 2003-2010, to map the Great Salt Lake fault (GSLF) and To sample the history of fault slip between 2.5 and 11.7 kya., we dated a suite of
associated subsidiary faults in the north arm of the Great Salt Lake in Utah and faulted Holocene landforms along the MSAF that vary in both offset magnitude
to revise our analogous map for the south arm of the lake. We also mapped the (d) and age (t). We are generating d-t observations at three locations along the
trace of the Carrington fault, another major normal fault in the Great Salt Lake, MSAF: Randall Ranch, Pine Canyon Ranch, and Collins Canyon. We made initial
using the seismic reflection data and high-resolution bathymetry data for the lake. offset measurement remotely using 1m/pixel topographic data derived from the B4
Based on the geometry of our mapped surface trace for the GSLF, variations in the ALSM dataset. Our field investigations resulted in the collection of geochronologic
amount of lakebed offset along this fault, and other evidence for recency of faulting, data, offset measurements, neotectonic mapping, and offset reconstructions. We
we hypothesize that the GSLF consists of the following four segments from north completed neotectonic mapping on LiDAR base maps and topographic surveys
to south (with end-to-end length measurements): the Rozel segment (= 18 km), with differential GPS. We excavated fault parallel trenches and stream exposures
the Promontory segment (= 27 km), the Fremont Island segment (24 km), and to correlate depositional events across the fault and test our remotely determined
the Antelope Island segment (35 km). Seismic reflection profiles across the GSLF offset estimates. Upon establishing the stratigraphic relationships of lithologic
in the north arm show clear evidence for individual paleoearthquakes in the form units from excavations, we collected radiocarbon samples to be analyzed at AMS
of stratigraphically limited subsidiary faults and monoclines and coseismic bedding facilities. To date, a total of 40 dates have been collected to constrain the ages of
rotations adjacent to the fault. Based on these types of features, we have identified ˜14 depositional units from the three locations.
seismic event horizons for two or three paleoearthquakes on the Rozel segment and
two or three paleoearthquakes on the Promontory segment, all within ˜8 m of the Ages of Paleoearthquakes Along Four Faults (California Wash, Wildcat
lake bottom. A possible fourth Promontory segment earthquake is suggested by the Wash, Black Hills and Pahrump) in Southern Nevada
higher fault scarps along this segment. From comparisons with the depths of dated TAYLOR, W. J., University of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV, wanda.taylor@unlv.edu
event horizons on the Antelope Island and Fremont Island segments, we infer that
(1) it is reasonable to assume that the average single segment recurrence interval of The amount of young strain and active faulting in the area between the
4200 ± 1400 years that we have determined for surface faulting earthquakes on Northern Arizona Seismic Belt and the Sierra Nevada – Great Basin Seismic Belt
these two segments is also applicable to the Rozel and Promontory segments and (Eastern California Shear Zone), around the latitude of Las Vegas, remains under
(2) the paleoearthquakes that we have identified on the Rozel and Promontory quantified, and so, debated. To address this issue, paleoseismic, fault offset, fault
segments likely occurred during the Holocene. scarp, and surficial data were collected from four faults in a transect across the
region: the California Wash fault, Wildcat Wash fault, Black Hills fault, and
Four Earthquakes in Four Thousand Years: Paleoseismic Results from the Stewart Valley portion of the Pahrump fault/Stateline fault system. Each fault was
Kings Canyon Fault Zone, Carson City, Nevada, USA trenched or natural dissections were used and logged to document fault offsets and
GOLD, R. D., US Geological Survey, Golden, CO, rgold@usgs.gov; DEPOLO, colluvial wedges. Units and colluvial wedges were dated using radiocarbon AMS
C. M., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, eq_dude@sbcglobal.net; BRIGGS, R. methods. The faults in the trenches and dissections were generally multistranded.
W., US Geological Survey, Golden, CO, rbriggs@usgs.gov; CRONE, A., US Each fault showed offset units and/or colluvial wedges suggesting that at least two
Geological Survey, Golden, CO, crone@usgs.gov; MAHAN, S., US Geological paleoearthquakes occurred along it. Two of three logged natural dissections across
Survey, Denver, CO; AMIDON, W., Middlebury College, Middlebury, VT the California Was fault show colluvial wedges, and so, paleoearthquakes at ˜1900
cal yr BP and ˜3000 cal yr BP. One exposure shows an additional event at ˜1000 cal
The north-trending, east-dipping Kings Canyon fault is part of the Sierra Nevada yr BP. Two natural dissections across the Wildcat Wash fault show colluvial wedges
Frontal Fault system and is located <5 km from downtown Carson City, NV. that indicate at least two events since ˜3200 cal yr BP. A logged trench across the
Previous investigations have suggested Holocene faulting on this structure, but Black Hills fault shows colluvial wedges that indicate five events since 19,290 ±
lacked absolute age control. To determine the recent rupture history of the Kings 120 BP. The Black Hills fault MRE is bracketed only as younger than 9,230 ± 80
Canyon fault zone, we excavated three trenches and two soil/cosmogenic surface BP. The Stewart Valley part of the Pahrump fault shows fault offsets indicating
age profile pits into an alluvial fan cut by numerous fault traces. Based on the two events since 8595 ± 45 cal yr BP with one event, the MRE, since 1075 ± 20
exposure in Trench 3, sited across a northeast-striking ˜10 m high fault scarp, radiocarbon years BP. These data show activity occurred on all of the faults within
we document evidence for four surface-faulting earthquakes based on colluvial- the last ∼3,000 years with the possible exception of the Black Hills fault. Together
wedge stratigraphy, fault terminations, and aligned gravels indicating periods of these data suggest that this region is tectonically active and that these faults have
slope stability between earthquakes. Ages from eight AMS radiocarbon and ten the potential for future earthquakes along them.
optically stimulated luminescence samples provide constraints on the timing of
four paleoearthquakes with average vertical offsets of ˜2 m: Paleoearthquake 1
(PE1) at 1.4 ka, PE2 at 1.6 ka, PE3 at 1.8 ka, and PE4 at 4.0 ka. Luminescence Seismicity Statistics and Stress in Regions with High Tectonic Complexity:
dating and a preliminary 3He cosmogenic radionuclide depth profile indicate that A Comparative Study of the Greater San Gorgonio and Ventura Regions in
the age of the faulted fan surface is ˜5 ka. The fan surface offset is 8.4 m. We Southern California
calculate the first geologically determined vertical slip rate for the Kings Canyon GOEBEL, T. H. W., Caltech, Pasadena, CA, thw.goebel@gmail.com;
fault, which is 1.5 to 2.0 mm/yr since 5 ka. Our results indicate that the Kings HAUKSSOM, E., Caltech, Pasadena, CA, hauksson@caltech.edu; PLESCH,
Canyon fault zone slips at a rate comparable to the Genoa fault, a north-striking A., Harvard, Cambridge, MA, andreas_plesch@harvard.edu; SHAW, J., Harvard,
normal fault along strike to the south. It appears that the Kings Canyon fault Cambridge, MA, shaw@eps.harvard.edu
did not fail during the most-recent earthquake along the Genoa fault (< 0.4 ka);
however, an earlier event along the Kings Canyon fault (e.g., PE3) documented in The study of frequently occurring small-magnitude earthquakes provides rare
our investigation may correlate to the penultimate event along the Genoa fault. insights into fault stresses and heterogeneity at seismogenic depth. Here, we analyze
Our observations suggest the Kings Canyon fault zone poses a significant seismic such earthquakes in two regions with high tectonic complexity, i.e. the Ventura
hazard to Carson City, Nevada. basin (VB) and San Gorgonio pass (SGP) regions in southern California. VB
is characterized by highly variable, deep seismic activity and contains a series
of thrust faults. The rapid convergence rates across VB suggest that several of
Establishing Early-Mid Holocene Slip Rate Data for the Mojave Section of the these faults slip at high rates and may be capable of producing large-magnitude
San Andreas Fault earthquakes. SGP, on the other hand, marks the location of a structural knot in
BARR, M. A., University of California, Davis, CA, malbarr@ucdavis.edu; the San Andreas fault system, resulting in distributed deformation across a series
COWGILL, E. S., University of California, Davis, CA, escowgill@ucdavis.edu; of strike-slip and thrust faults which generally exhibit low geologic slip rates. We
SCHARER, K. M., US Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA, kscharer@usgs.gov perform a quantitative comparison between seismicity characteristics including
focal mechanisms, stress drops, and principle stress orientations between SGP and
The Holocene slip history for the Mojave section of the San Andreas Fault (MSAF) VB. The direction of largest compressive stress in VB is oriented approximately N-
is predominately derived from paleoseismic investigations that are restricted to the S, in agreement with the larger scale compressional tectonics within the area. The
late Holocene (<2.5kyr). Thus, the fault rupture history between 2.5 and 11.7 ka principle stresses in SGP, on the other hand, exhibit a wide range of distributions
remains unconstrained by observations. Possible temporal variations in slip rate leading to the observed variations in faulting mechanisms. Similarly, earthquake
along the MSAF are suggested by an apparent discrepancy between geologically and stress drops are heterogeneous in SGP, varying between 1 to 25 MPa whereas

on 09 October 2018
the VB region shows consistently low stress drops around 1 MPa. Earthquake We construct realistic 3D finite element models based on regional tomography
hypocenter locations in VB are generally more aligned with the main mapped fault and Moho and LAB depth data to update the coseismic slip distribution. The
traces compared to SGP which shows a diffuse seismicity cloud with relatively coseismic fault slip model and the 3D finite element model will help investigate
higher fractal geometry. In both study areas, there is a close connection between the postseismic viscoelastic relaxation as well as constraining regional rheologic
the regional stress fields, earthquake stress drops and the spatial distribution of structure.
earthquake hypocenters. These systematic differences in seismicity characteristics
provide important information related to geologic slip rates and regional
tectonics. Transtensional Tectonics of the Minto Flats Fault Zone and Nenana Basin,
Central Alaska
TAPE, C., University of Alaska , Fairbanks, AK, ctape@alaska.edu; SILWAL,
Full Source Tensors of San Jacinto Fault Zone Earthquakes Based on the V., University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; JI, C., University of California , Santa
gCAP Inversion Method and 3D Velocity Model Barbara, CA; HUTCHINSON, L., University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; WEST,
ROSS, Z. E., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, zross@usc.edu;
M., University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; RUPPERT, N., University of Alaska,
BEN-ZION, Y., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, Fairbanks, AK
benzion@usc.edu; ZHU, L., Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO,
zhul@slu.edu; GRAVES, R. W., USGS, Pasadena, CA, rwgraves@usgs. Central Alaska is a broad zone of crustal deformation that is driven by collision
gov and flat-slab subduction. Within central Alaska there are large-scale right-lateral
strike-slip faults, such as the Denali fault (2002 Mw 7.9), as well as smaller-scale
We analyze full source tensor properties of moderate-sized earthquakes in the fold-and-thrust belts and left-lateral strike-slip fault zones, one of which is the
complex trifurcation area of the San Jacinto Fault Zone (SJFZ), CA, with a Minto Flats fault zone. We use seismological evidence to document a pair of
focus on isotropic radiation that may be produced by rock damage in the source
overlapping and offset left-lateral faults that define the Minto Flats fault zone.
volumes. The earthquake mechanisms are derived with generalized ‘Cut and Paste’ Microseismicty delineates this 180-km-long fault zone. Using body waves and
(gCAP) inversions of 3-component waveforms typically recorded by >70 stations surface waves, we perform moment tensor inversions for the ten best-recorded
at regional distances. The gCAP method includes parameters ζ and χ representing, earthquakes in the fault zone. Moment tensors reveal consistent left-lateral faulting
respectively, the relative strength of the isotropic and CLVD source terms. In a
throughout the fault zone. A finite-source model for the 1995 Mw 6.0 earthquake
previous analysis using the 1D velocity model of Hadley and Kanamori (1977) we is consistent with left-lateral faulting and provides rupture details for the largest
found statistically significant explosive isotropic components for at least six of seven known event in the fault zone. The two main faults are offset by 10 km and
examined events, corresponding to ˜0.4-8% of the total potency/moment of the
overlap by 70 km, creating a releasing stepover within a transtensional setting.
sources. Possible errors due to station variability and inaccurate Green’s functions Between the faults is a 90-km-long, 10-km-wide, and 8-km-deep sedimentary basin
were quantified with bootstrap resampling and velocity model perturbations. Here (Nenana basin). We interpret the transtensional faulting to be responsible for the
we expand the gCAP inversions to incorporate a 3D velocity model combining the active formation of the basin. The distances of fault overlap and fault separation
regional SCEC community model and the detailed tomographic results of Allam
are key parameters for determining (1) the three-dimensional morphology of the
and Ben-Zion (2012) and Zigone et al. (2015) for the region around the SJFZ. The sedimentary basin, and (2) the likelihood of earthquake ruptures jumping from
3D Green functions are calculated with the finite difference algorithm of Graves one fault to the next. The structure of Nenana basin is consistent with shear
(1996). We tested the accuracy of the computational method by comparing finite motion accommodated by the identified faults. The 10 km fault offset suggests
difference and FK calculations for the 1D Hadley and Kanamori (1977) model. that ruptures are not likely to span the entire fault zone. Earthquakes as large as
Next, the employed 3D velocity model was used to calculate the eighteen relevant Mw 7.0 to 7.5 could occur on either fault; a 1937 M > 7 earthquake occurred in a
3D Green’s functions. Results based on the 3D Green’s functions for moderate similar fault zone to the east. The transtensional fault zone provides an important
SJFZ earthquakes will be presented in the meeting.
constraint for characterizing the larger-scale intraplate tectonic setting of central
Alaska.
Complex Fault Structure in the Salton Trough and Deformation During the 2010
M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake from Geodetic and Seismic Data
HUANG, M., University of California, Berkeley, CA, mong@seismo. The First Surface-Rupturing Earthquake in 20 Years on a HERP Major Active
berkeley.edu; FIELDING, E. J., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, Fault: Mw=6.2 2014 Nagano, Japan, Event Along the Northern Itoigawa-
CA, eric.j.fielding@jpl.nasa.gov; SUN, J., Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Shizuoka Tectonic Line is Not Characteristic
Administration, Beijing, China, sunjianbao@gmail.com; DICKINSON, H. OKADA, S., IRIDeS, Tohoku University, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan, sokada@
L., Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, hdickins@purdue.edu; FREED, A., irides.tohoku.ac.jp; ISHIMURA, D., IRIDeS, Tohoku University, Sendai,
Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, freed@purdue.edu; BURGMANN, Miyagi, Japan, ishimura@irides.tohoku.ac.jp; NIWA, Y., IRIDeS, Tohoku
R., University of California, Berkeley, CA; GONZALEZ-ORTEGA, A., University, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan, niwa@irides.tohoku.ac.jp; TODA, S., IRIDeS,
Scripps Institute of Oceanography, UCSD, La Jolla, CA, jag112@ucsd.edu; Tohoku University, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan, niwa@irides.tohoku.ac.jp
GONZALEZ-ESCOBAR, M., CICESE, Ensenada, BC, Mexico; SAMSONOV,
S., NR Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; GONZALEZ-GARCIA, M., CICESE, The 22 November 2014 Nagano-ken-hokubu earthquake (Mjma=6.7, Mw=6.2)
Ensenada, BC, Mexico; FLETCHER, J., CICESE, Ensenada, BC, Mexico; struck northern Nagano, central Japan, destroying more than 100 houses and
HINOJOSA-CORONA, A., CICESE, Ensenada, BC, Mexico injuring 46 people. We found more than 9 km of complex surface faulting on
the previously mapped N-NW trending Kamishiro fault, one of the segments of
The 4 April 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake (Mw 7.2) in Baja California the 150-km-long Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line (ISTL) active fault system. The
and Sonora, Mexico has primarily right-lateral strike-slip motion. However, up to surface rupture lies ˜5 km west of the epicenter, juxtaposing a basin with a NNW-
2m vertical displacement along surface rupture also implies a significant dip-slip trending mountain range. Although we did not find the free face of the bedrock
component. The earthquake ruptured a complex set of faults that lie to the west of fault, we confirmed that vertically separated, warped and buckled ground surface
the main plate boundary fault, the Cerro Prieto Fault, and shows that the strike- correspond to vertical and contractive deformation associated with a shallow
slip fault system in the southern Salton Trough has multiple sub-parallel active east-dipping thrust fault (east side up), accommodating NW-SE compression.
faults, similar to southern California. We study the coseismic deformation of the Measured the maximum vertical displacement and contraction are 80 cm and 50
2010 earthquake with InSAR and pixel tracking by subpixel correlation of SAR cm respectively. The 2014 earthquake is the first surface-rupturing earthquake
and optical images. We combine sampled InSAR and subpixel correlation results to strike on one of the 105 major active faults evaluated by the Headquarters
with GPS offsets at PBO (Plate Boundary Observatory) stations to estimate the for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) since 1995. Numerous paleoseismic
likely subsurface geometry of the major faults that slipped during the earthquake data, in particular on the most active central ISTL, allowed the HERP to forecast
and to derive a static coseismic slip model. We constrained the surface locations of a 14% 30-yr probability of an M=8.3 earthquake if the entire ISTL ruptured.
the fault segments to mapped locations in the Sierra Cucapah to the northwest Probabilities of more frequent M˜7 ruptures had been under consideration. One
of the epicenter. ALOS PALSAR along-track offsets show that there is a large of the rupture scenarios was 86-km-long Mw=7.14 event on the northern half of
amount of right-lateral slip (1-3 m) on a previously unmapped system of faults the ISTL, involving the Kamishiro fault. Even a single 26-km-long Kamishiro fault,
extending about 60 km to the southeast of the epicenter beneath the Colorado defined by the geomorphological continuity, would have produced a larger event
River Delta named the Indiviso Fault system. The finite fault slip modeling shows of Mjma=7.2 (Mw=6.7). In addition, the observed 80-cm-vertical displacement is
a bilateral rupture with coseismic fault slip shallower than 10 km on the faults much smaller than the expected 3-4-m slip from a 1,000-1,500 yr elapsed time and
to the NW (dipping NE) and SE (dipping SW) of the epicenter. The SE end a vertical slip rate of 3 mm/yr of the Kamishiro fault. Thus, so far we conclude that
of the coseismic ruptures has complex fault geometry, including both east- and either the 2014 earthquake is not a characteristic event, or the paleoseismic data are
west-dipping faults revealed by recently reprocessed seismic reflection profiles. extremely incomplete.

on 09 October 2018
The May 2014, Bay of Bengal Earthquake: an Example for Activation of Ocean weaker spots on fault directly affects prestress state prior to large events, while
Bottom Hot Spot Trails the efficiency of dynamic weakening determines the dynamic stress at which
MALLICK, R., Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, Karnataka, India, earthquake propagates. Complexity in either process could lead to the variability
mallickrishg@ceas.iisc.ernet.in; RAJENDRAN, K., Indian Institute of Science, of earthquake slip. (3) The along-depth behavior of large earthquakes affects their
Bangalore, Karnataka, India, kusala@ceas.iisc.ernet.in along-strike development due to the positive feedback loop between dynamic
properties of rupture and DW, even in models with uniform fault properties
The moderate earthquake on 21 May 2014 (Mw 6.1) in the northern Bay of along strike. The non-uniform slip during one event leads to spatio-temporal
Bengal is perhaps the best-known example of an intraplate earthquake (IPE) on complexity in subsequent events, including large variations of depth extent with
an oceanic bathymetric feature. Most oceanic IPE are known to be associated time. Our current efforts are directed towards quantifying the scaling relations
with active or inactive ridges and transform faults. The 90◦ E ridge, which is a between rupture slip, depth, and length as well as their variability, and the effect
fossil hot spot trail, has demonstrated its potential for great earthquakes (e.g., of dynamic weakening and deep slip on depth-dependent and fault-averaged stress
Mw 8.2 and 8.6, 2012), but due to its diffused plate boundary status, it is not drop.
considered as genuinely intraplate. The causative feature of the 2014 earthquake
is the submerged 85◦ E ridge, the 2500 km long trail of a short lived Cretaceous
Observed Maximum Earthquake Magnitude in Continental Strike-Slip Faults
hotspot on the oceanic Indian plate, hitherto considered aseismic. Six earthquakes
in relation to Cumulative Offset and Seismogenic Thickness
of smaller magnitude have occurred within 400 km distance of this earthquake,
MARTÍNEZ-GARZÓN, P., GFZ German Research Centre, Potsdam, Germany,
but their source characteristics have not been modeled for want of sufficient
patricia@gfz-potsdam.de; BOHNHOFF, M., GFZ German Research Centr,
data. Teleseismic P-wave source modeling using data from 26 global stations has
Potsdam, Germany, bohnhoff@gfz-potsdam.de; BEN-ZION, Y., University of
located this earthquake on the eastern flank of the 85◦ E ridge. Magnitude (Mw) is
Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, benzion@usc.edu
estimated as 6.1, with a source depth of 54.5 km. The best-fitting solution suggests
rupture along NW-SE direction. Global examples of age, depth-dependence and We compiled a homogeneous catalog of major earthquakes on continental strike-
faulting style of oceanic intraplate earthquakes suggest compressional (thrust and slip faults worldwide to investigate the relation between maximum observed
strike-slip) earthquakes at depths of 10 to 60 km, occurring within the 750◦ C magnitudes (from instrumental or historical catalogs and trenching studies),
isotherm (Stein and Pelayo 1991). Sourced in a ˜85 Ma oceanic lithosphere cumulative fault offset and thickness of the seismogenic layer. Additional
beneath a sediment thickness of about 12 km, the source parameters that we compiled data (when available) are rupture length and coseismic slip of selected
obtained are compatible with these global models. Thus, while the depth of this earthquakes. Uncertainties are provided for each quantity. Major faults with
earthquake is not unusual, its source on a fossil hot spot trace provides a fresh available cumulative offsets at different areas are split into sections, resulting in a
example for oceanic intraplate earthquakes on fossil hot spot trails. Considering the total of thirty analyzed sections. The observed maximum earthquake magnitude
long intervals (perhaps thousands of years) for large earthquakes and taking in to (Mmax) increases linearly with the logarithm of the cumulative offset. The Mmax
account the potential of the unbroken parts of the 85◦ E ridge, future earthquakes values are better fitted by the logarithm of the product of cumulative offset and
and hazard to coastal communities cannot be disregarded. seismogenic depth, in agreement with the expected dependency of magnitudes on
rupture areas. Interestingly, two populations of pairs Mmax-log(cumulative offset
Along-Strike Slip Profiles from a Global Dataset of Finite-Source Models times seismogenic depth) can be distinguished: one containing two-thirds of the
DONOVAN, J., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, data and a second composed of one-third. The second population is associated with
jrdonova@usc.edu; JORDAN, T. H., University of Southern California, faults that ruptured in a larger earthquake than expected from their cumulative
Los Angeles, CA, tjordan@usc.edu offset and seismogenic thickness. Some of these faults are the onshore strike-slip
faults from Japan (Median Tectonic Line, Tanna, Atera and Neodani Fault Zones)
We have developed systematic procedures for estimating along-strike slip profiles as well as the Eastern California Shear Zone. Different factors are considered to
from finite-source inversion models and have applied them to a global dataset understand the existence and differences of the populations. Among them, cascade
of large earthquakes. The purpose of our work is to develop spatial slip models ruptures of more than one fault leading to a larger earthquake, which explains
that can be combined with spacetime rupture histories to develop conditional some of the observed earthquakes from the second population (e.g. Landers, Nobi,
hypocenter distributions for forecasting directivity and other source effects. We North-Izu). Additionally, these earthquakes have larger coseismic slips per rupture
trim the finite-source models where the slip is small and poorly constrained, average lengths than those from the main population with the same magnitude, which is
the slip along strike, normalize the profile length, and stack the profiles over event translated into larger stress drops.
sets. We fit the mean profiles with a symmetric Beta distribution of the form Be (x )
˜ xα−1 (1-x )α−1 , where x is the normalized distance along strike. We obtain α =
1.64 ± 0.07 for strike-slip events. These results are consistent with the findings of
Biasi and Weldon (2006), who were able to fit the normalized slip distribution
from surface offsets by a sin(π x )1/2 function, which is well approximated by a Seismic Imaging and Monitoring of Near-surface, Crustal
symmetric Beta distribution with α = 1.56. Our analysis of finite-source models and Global Scales: Recent Advances and Future Directions
offers additional insights into the relationships among slip patterns, hypocenter
locations, slip centroids, and directivity. In particular, we show how conditional Poster Session · Wednesday · 22 April · Exhibit Hall A
hypocenter distributions constrained by along-strike slip profiles can be used to
forecast rupture directivity.
Seismic Velocity and Attenuation Tomography of the Tonga Subduction Zone
and Lau Back-arc Basin
Variability of Earthquake Slip and Arresting Depth in Fault Models With WEI, S. S., Washington University, St. Louis, MO, songqiaowei@wustl.edu;
Depth-Dependent Properties WIENS, D. A., Washington University, St. Louis, MO, doug@wustl.edu; ZHA,
JIANG, J., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, jjle@gps. Y., Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY,
caltech.edu; LAPUSTA, N., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, yangz@ldeo.columbia.edu; WEBB, S. C., Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory,
lapusta@caltech.edu Columbia University, Palisades, NY, scw@ldeo.columbia.edu
Can large earthquakes penetrate below the conventionally defined seismogenic In order to investigate the distribution of partial melt beneath the Tonga arc
zone? The depth extent of earthquakes significantly affects a number of and Lau back-arc basin, we conduct tomographic studies of surface wave velocity
characteristics important for seismic hazard, including ground motion, scaling and body wave attenuation using seismic data from a local OBS array and island-
relations, and fault jump probabilities. Using fault models with temperature/pore based stations. The shear wave velocity structure is jointly inverted from the phase
pressure evolution as well as depth-dependent permeability and shear-zone width, velocities of teleseismic and ambient-noise Rayleigh waves, as the former is inverted
we study the variability of earthquakes, their arresting depth, and their interactions using the two-plane-wave method with finite-frequency kernels, and the latter is
with aseismic processes. Faults are governed by standard rate-and-state friction at obtained from cross-correlation in frequency domain. Additionally, we determine
low slip rates and enhanced dynamic weakening (DW) at high slip rates, including the 3D attenuation structure from t* measurements of P and S waves from local
flash heating (FH) and thermal pressurization of pore fluids (TP), supported earthquakes. In order to avoid the trade-off between t* and corner frequency, fc
by laboratory and theoretical studies. We find that: (1) Competition between of each event is independently constrained by analyzing the spectral ratio of S
permeability and shear zone width determines the depth dependence of coseismic coda. The QP and QS structures are inverted separately, and QP /QS is jointly
shear heating due to TP. In models with experimentally constrained permeability inverted from QP and t*(S). Tomographic results show strong signals of low
and reasonable assumptions about the shear zone width, earthquakes could velocity and high attenuation within the upper 100-km of the mantle beneath the
rupture into the deeper velocity-strengthening fault extensions. (2) Nucleation at back-arc basin, suggesting perhaps the lowest shear velocity (VSV = 3.5 km/s) and

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highest seismic attenuation (QP < 35 and QS < 25) known in the mantle. These augalde@ictja.csic.es; VILLASENOR, A., Institute of Earth Sciences Jaume
anomalies require not only the abnormally high temperature but also the existence Almera-CSIC, Barcelona, Spain, antonio@ictja.csic.es; Contribution of the
of partial melt. The inferred partial melt aligns with the spreading centers at shallow Team Consolider-Ingenio 2010 TOPO-IBERIA (CSD2006-00041) project.
depths, but shift westwards away from the slab, implying a passive decompression
melting process governed by the mantle wedge flow pattern. Understanding seismic wave attenuation is extremely valuable for characterizing
Earth structures. Although it has been traditionally measured using earthquake
data, recent studies have shown the reliability of attenuation measurements from
ambient noise procedures (e.g. Prieto et al., 2009; Lawrence and Prieto, 2011; Lin
Eikonal Noise-Based Tomography of the Southern California Plate Boundary
et al., 2011). In this study, we investigate the feasibility of using ambient noise data
Region
to evaluate Rayleigh wave attenuation in the Iberian Peninsula. Data used consist
QIU, H., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, hongruiq@
of cross-correlated ambient noise recordings collected between January 2008
usc.edu; ZIGONE, D., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, and December 2012 from permanent and portable broadband seismic stations
zigone@usc.edu; LIN, F. C., University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, deployed in the Iberian Peninsula. In order to recover the attenuation, we measure
u0919412@utah.edu; BEN-ZION, Y., University of Southern California, Los the relative Rayleigh wave amplitudes from the symmetric component of the cross-
Angeles, CA, benzion@usc.ed correlations following Lin et al. (2011). First, we perform a duration-normalization
Eikonal noise-based tomography can be used in places with good data coverage by dividing the empirical Green’s function by the squared root-mean-squared
amplitude of the trailing noise. Then, frequency-time-analysis is performed to
to determine directionally-dependent surface wave phase velocities. This is done
measure Rayleigh wave between 5 s and 25 s periods. Surface wave amplitudes
here for the southern CA plate boundary region. We first calculate noise cross-
correlation functions for year 2014 between 453 stations in area. Rayleigh wave are further corrected for geometrical attenuation and azimuthal variation. The
phase travel times between 3 and 11 sec period are then derived for each station resulting, corrected Rayleigh wave amplitudes describe the attenuation of surface
wave amplitudes from a reference, center station. Our preliminary results are
pair using frequency-time analysis. For each common station, all available travel
focused on a comparison of the ambient-noise-derived attenuation with recent
time measurements with sufficient quality are used to construct the travel time
map for a virtual source at the common station location. By solving the eikonal attenuation estimates in the Iberian Peninsula using Lg waves (Noriega et al.,
equation, we then evaluate both phase velocity and propagation direction at each 2015) for two center stations (GUD and ESPR). We recover comparable quality
factor from ambient noise and earthquakes measurements, though decay constants
location for each virtual source. Isotropic phase velocities and 2-psi azimuthal
anisotropy are determined statistically with measurements from different virtual estimated from noise measures are subjected to the selection criteria and are still
sources. The results agree well with previous observations of Zigone et al. (2015) under investigation. Ongoing work is focused on applying this method to all
stations across the Iberian Peninsula and inverting the results to image the spatially
in the overlapping area. Clear velocity contrasts and low velocity zones are seen
averaged attenuation.
near the San Andreas, San Jacinto, Elsinore and Garlock faults. We also find 2-
psi azimuthal anisotropy with fast directions parallel to geometrically-simple fault
sections. Updated results will be presented in the meeting.
Ambient Noise Tomography Across the Alaskan Cordillera
WARD, K. M., University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, wardk@email.arizona.edu
Improvement of the Shear Wave Velocity Structure Beneath Bucharest
(Romania) Using Non-Invasive Techniques The Alaskan Cordillera has formed though an aggregate of tectonic processes
MANEA, E. F., ETH , Zürich, Switzerland, elena.manea@sed.ethz.ch; including, normal subduction of pacific lithosphere, flat-slab subduction of the
MICHEL, C., ETH, Zürich, Switzerland, clotaire@sed.ethz.ch; FÄH, D., ETH Yakutat microplate, and the accretion of terranes among other processes. Large
, Zürich, Switzerland, donat.faeh@sed.ethz.ch; POGGI, V., ETH , Zürich, active strike-slip faults, high levels of seismicity, and volcanic activity demonstrate
Switzerland, v.poggi@sed.ethz.ch; EDWARDS, B., ETH , Zürich, Switzerland, the ongoing dynamic nature of the orogen. Many of these tectonic processes
v.poggi@sed.ethz.ch; CIOFLAN, C. O., National Institute of Earth Physics, significantly alter the structure of the overriding lithosphere making this section of
Magurele, Ilfov, Romania, cco_niep@yahoo.com; RADULIAN, M., National the North American Cordillera a unique place to study active orogenic processes
Institute of Earth Physics, Magurele, Ilfov, Romania, radulimir@yahoo.com; as recorded in the lithosphere. Over the last decade, ambient noise tomography
BALAN, S. F., National Institute of Earth Physics, Magurele, Ilfov, Romania, has emerged as powerful tool for imaging the lithosphere on orogenic scales often
sbalan@infp.ro from ‘legacy’ data sets. Ahead of EarthScope and the transportable array sweeping
though Alaska, I present the results of an extensive data mining effort integrating
The ground motion recorded during large earthquakes from the intermediate- 197 permanent and temporary seismic stations into an ambient noise study across
depth Vrancea seismic zone are characterized by predominant long periods in southern Alaska and westernmost Canada. I measure the surface wave dispersion
Bucharest. This phenomenon has been explained by the influence of both source of Rayleigh waves extracted from the ambient seismic wavefield for 11 periods
mechanism and soil conditions at the site. The Quaternary deposits beneath the between 8 and 40 seconds. Special care is administered when quality controlling
city, at depths greater than 300 meters, and unconsolidated Tertiary layers, more and processing the data, an especially important consideration in regions with high
than 1000m deep, are responsible for important amplifications of the seismic levels of seismicity. Principal observations of my 3-D model include: low velocities
waves. For a better understanding of the geological structure beneath Bucharest, in the Cook Inlet, onshore Yakutat Terrane, and other major basins at shorter
non-invasive methods are used, such as: wavelet - polarization analysis at each periods (˜10 sec); fast velocities in the Chugach and high relief Wrangell terranes
station, H/V for ambient vibrations and earthquakes, and three-component array (˜10 sec); and a sharp increase in velocities north of the Denali Fault with low
analysis of ambient vibrations, in order to retrieve the dispersion characteristics velocities that match the active and Neogene Wrangell volcanic belt extending
of surface waves. This study uses data from a 35 km diameter array (the URS east into western Canada at intermediate periods (˜25 sec). A limited number of
experiment) installed by the National Institute for Earth Physics, in cooperation stations are also jointly inverted with receiver functions for a 1-D S-wave velocity
with the Geophysical Institute (University of Karlsruhe), recorded over 10 model revealing extremely complicated crustal structures in the accreted terranes.
months between 2003 - 2004 in the urban area of Bucharest and adjacent
zones. The results show the consistence of H/V curves over the entire array,
with two predominant peaks visible. The fundamental peak is attributed to the Three-Dimensional P and S Wave-Velocity Model of The Northern
geophysical bedrock, interpreted as the interface between Neogene and Cretaceous Mississippi Embayment Sediments
geological units, whose variability confirms that the bedrock is deeper to the MOSTAFANEJAD, A., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, mstfnjad@
North (approximatively 1800 m). Moreover, the H/V ratios computed using SH memphis.edu; LANGSTON, C. A., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN,
waves from earthquakes could be an estimation of the SH transfer function. The clangstn@memphis.edu
surface wave dispersion curves and their ellipticity are jointly inverted to estimate
the velocity structure under the city. Due to the size of the URS array, a good Taking advantage of the opportunity created by the passage of the USArray
approximation of the deep velocity structure under the city was achieved, while Transportable array, deployment of the Northern Embayment Lithospheric
downhole data (<100m) were used to constrain the upper part of the model. Experiment (NELE), and using the existing broadband components of the New
Madrid Seismic Network, we have modeled the three dimensional shear and
Rayleigh Wave Attenuation from Ambient Noise Measurements in the Iberian compressional wave velocity structure of Mississippi embayment sediments. We
Peninsula constructed this velocity model by producing a series of synthetic vertical and radial
NORIEGA, R., Institute of Earth Sciences Jaume Almera-CSIC, Barcelona, transfer functions from an input linear 1D gradient velocity model under each
Spain, rnoriega@ictja.csic.es; MOSCHETTI, M. P., Geologic Hazards station and assuming a wide range of velocity nodes for each model. The best model
Science Center, US Geological Survey, Golden, CO, mmoschetti@usgs.gov; realization was obtained by maximizing the fit, and minimizing the difference in
UGALDE, A., Institute of Earth Sciences Jaume Almera-CSIC, Barcelona, Spain, the radial-to-vertical amplitude ratios between the observed and synthetic vertical

on 09 October 2018
and radial transfer functions of a sediment model through a grid search inversion Elucidating Fault Zone Structures in the South-Central Transverse Ranges
approach. We constrained our grid search with the existing geological and well Area using Double Difference Tomography
log data for sediment thickness and velocity, as well as average P and S wave SHARE, P., USC, Los Angeles, CA, pshare@usc.edu; BEN-ZION, Y., USC, Los
velocities obtained from teleseismic H/V - V/H spectral ratios and H/V spectral Angeles, CA, benzion@usc.edu; THURBER, C. H., UW-Madison, Madison,
ratios from ambient noise. In general, the velocity model shows low velocities WI, clifft@geology.wisc.edu
near the edge of the embayment with average velocities increasing with increasing
sediment thickness, consistent with increased sediment compaction. This 3D The South-Central Transverse Ranges section of the plate-boundary in southern
velocity model will be useful for local earthquake ground motion simulations. California is highly complex and includes intersections between the San Andreas
However, its primary purpose is for correcting for the sediment effect in the fault zone, San Jacinto fault zone, and the eastern California shear zones. To clarify
downward continuation of the teleseismic P wave field to examine Ps conversions properties of fault zone structures in this region, we perform double-difference
from crust and mantle interfaces. tomography using arrival times and differential times associated with P and S
body waves and potentially also fault zone head waves. Recent algorithms for
Seismic Structure in Central California: Towards Identifying the Tectonic automatic identification and picking of P, S and head waves are used to assemble
Origin of the Isabella Anomaly large arrival time data sets. Initial tomographic results will be presented in the
DOUGHERTY, S. L., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, meeting.
sarad@gps.caltech.edu; HOOTS, C. R., University of New Mexico,
Albuquerque, NM, choots@unm.edu; HANSEN, S., University of New Mexico,
Albuquerque, NM, stevehansen@unm.edu; CLAYTON, R. W., California Velocity Structure of the Iran Region Using Seismic and Gravity Observations
Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, clay@gps.caltech.edu; SCHMANDT, MACEIRA, M., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM,
B., University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, bschmandt@unm.edu mmaceira@lanl.gov; SYRACUSE, E. M., Los Alamos National Laboratory,
Los Alamos, NM, syracuse@lanl.gov; BERGMAN, E., University of Colorado,
Based on previous low-resolution seismic imaging studies of the region, the tectonic Boulder, CO, Eric.Bergman@Colorado.EDU; PHILLIPS, W. S., Los Alamos
origin of the Isabella high-velocity anomaly in the upper mantle of California’s National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, wsp@lanl.gov; BEGNAUD, M. L.,
southern Great Valley is unclear. The two dominant hypotheses attribute the Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, mbegnaud@lanl.gov;
Isabella anomaly to a fossil slab or the foundered lithospheric root of the Sierra ZHANG, H., University of Science and Technology of China, Anhui, China,
Nevada batholith. The Central California Seismic Experiment (CCSE) is designed zhang11@ustc.edu.cn
to distinguish between these hypotheses. We present preliminary results from the
CCSE, which consists of 44 broadband seismometers currently deployed in a quasi- We present a 3D seismic velocity model of the Iran region generated using a
linear array spanning from the Pacific coast, across the Great Valley, to the Sierra joint inversion simultaneously fitting body wave travel time measurements and
Nevada foothills, at an approximate latitude of 36◦ N. Forward modeling of the high-wavenumber filtered Bouguer gravity observations. The body wave data set
2D structure of the crust using local earthquakes recorded by the CCSE and a is derived from previous work on location calibration and includes a large (>1000
finite-difference algorithm is performed to provide constraints on the geometry events) subset of events that qualify as GT5. The associated arrival time data sets
and velocity of the seismic structure of the Great Valley. This sedimentary basin for these events include many readings of direct crustal P and S phases, as well
is suggested to be filled with very low velocity material at shallow depths and as regional (Pn and Sn) and teleseismic phases. The data set has been carefully
partially underlain by a high-velocity ophiolite body. Hence, a well-constrained groomed to identify and remove outlier readings and empirical reading errors
basin structure will be important in correcting surface wave tomography and are estimated for most arrivals from a multiple event relocation analysis. We use
receiver function images. Ambient noise surface waves along the CCSE array show gravity anomalies derived from the global gravity model Earth Gravitational Model
a distinct slowing by the Great Valley at periods <10 sec and will be used in EGM2008. To avoid mapping broad, possibly dynamically caused features in the
conjunction with noise recordings from more than 500 stations that currently gravity field into density and seismic speed variations, we high-pass wavenumber
or previously surround the array to perform surface wave tomography. Initial filter the surface-gravity measurements. We use a simple, approximate relationship
Ps receiver function images from common conversion point stacking are also between density and seismic velocities so that both data sets may be combined in a
presented. In addition to the CCSE array, a dense array of 116 short-period, vertical single inversion. The final optimized 3D models allow us to explore the relevant
component geophones was also deployed temporarily in the Peachtree Valley, question of “Can multi-parameter tomography address crustal heterogeneities
where the CCSE crosses the San Andreas Fault (SAF). This small high-resolution and areas of limited coverage, and improve travel time predictions?”. Our
array will be used to determine the location and level of microseismicity along a large data set of earthquakes with calibrated locations is especially suitable for
creeping section of the SAF. such an investigation. Final results of the simultaneous inversion will also help
us to better understand one of the most prominent examples of continental
Characterization of the San Jacinto Fault Zone Northwest of the Trifurcation collision.
Area from Earthquake Data Recorded by a Dense Linear Array
SHARE, P., USC, Los Angeles, CA, pshare@usc.edu; BEN-ZION, Y., USC,
Los Angeles, CA, benzion@usc.edu; ROSS, Z. E., USC, Los Angeles, Structures and Seismic Activity of the Xishancun Landslide, Sichuan
CA, zross@usc.edu; QIU, H., USC, Los Angeles, CA, hongruiq@usc.edu; CHU, R., Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Wuhan, Hubei, China,
VERNON, F. L., IGPP, La Jolla, CA, flvernon@ucsd.edu chur@asch.whigg.ac.cn; NI, S., Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Wuhan,
Hubei, China, sdni@asch.whigg.ac.cn; WEI, Z., Institute of Geodesy
Data generated by earthquakes and recorded by a linear seismic array at Blackburn and Geophysics, Wuhan, Hubei, China, weizigen@asch.whigg.ac.cn;
saddle NW of the trifurcation area, crossing the Clark branch of the San Jacinto BAO, F., Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Wuhan, Hubei, China,
Fault Zone, are used to study the internal fault zone structure in the area. The linear baofeng@asch.whigg.ac.cn; YE, L., University of California, Santa Cruz,
array (BB) is 250 m long and comprises 7 three-component 1-Hz seismometers. CA, lye2@ucsc.edu; TANG, C., China University of Geosciences, Wuhan,
Automatic algorithms are used to detect P and S body waves and fault zone head Wuhan, Hubei, China, iori89724@hotmail.com
and trapped waves. Statistical analyses of P body wave travel times of 745 events,
occurring during 2012-2014 within a 110 by 20 km window centered along the Landslide early warning is difficult because we lack knowledge on its structures and
length of the Clark fault, show a 0.6-0.8 % gradual increase in slowness from the internal ruptures, which provide key information about landslide status. Toward
SW most (BB01) to the NE most (BB07) station. The increase in slowness is this purpose, we deployed a dense seismic array consisting of 20 broadband and
consistent with a general increase in the P to S differential travel times from BB01 6 short-period seismometers for two weeks on Xishancun Landslide in Sichuan
to BB07. The results suggest the NE most stations overlie a zone of greater damage. Province of western China. The landslide is located about 20 km northwest of
Sharp velocity contrasts across the fault are imaged using fault zone head waves. the Wenchuan County, where the great 2008 Ms8.0 Wenchuan occurred. The
In total, 34 events (within the same 110 by 20 km window) are found to produce landslide, approximately 8.5x107 m3, is continuously deforming and poses great
phases with clear head wave characteristics. Further analyses of the candidate events hazard to life and properties near the populated area. Seismic studies include
show head waves originating as far as approximately 27 km and 54 km NW and SE thickness of the sediment from the H/V spectral ratio method and identification
along the fault from the linear array, respectively. Preliminary calculations suggest and relocation of micro-seismicity. During the seismic deployment, broadband
an average velocity contrast across the fault over the top 20 km of 3-4 %, with seismic stations recorded 3 M>3 earthquakes and many small local events within
the SW block being slower (the contrast is likely double in the top 8 km). Events 30 km of the array. Seismic data from these earthquakes are also used to constrain
located in a broad region that also includes the San Andreas and Elsinore Faults the sediment thickness. Results from these studies will be compared to and
produce candidate trapped waves that are most clear at stations BB06 and BB07 calibrated by borehole observation data. Our preliminary results show a sediment
(the two NE most stations). Waveform modeling results will be presented in the thickness of 20˜80 m. We also indentified and relocated two possible seismic events
meeting. that may have different mechanisms.

on 09 October 2018
Seismic Imaging of the Eastern Pacific Plate complementary to Rayleigh wave ellipticity. Therefore, the joint inversion with
CRONIN, MEAGAN, A., James Madison University, Harrisonburg, VA, the two local measurements provides tighter constraints to the velocity structure
croninma@dukes.jmu.edu; BROWN JUSTIN, R., James Madison University, beneath the seismic station. A joint inversion algorithm based on Fast Simulated
Harrisonburg, VA Annealing method is developed to invert Rayleigh wave ellipticity and receiver
function for the lithospheric structure. Application of the algorithm to Indian
In this study we investigate the geophysical properties of the eastern Pacific Plate Craton and Williston Basin in the United States demonstrates its effectiveness
boundaries. The eastern part of the Pacific Plate is host to several tectonic regimes in reducing the non-uniqueness of the inversion. However, the joint inversion
that remain elusive. In this study we use catalogued earthquakes along the eastern may fail to determine the average crustal velocity, suggesting necessity of a priori
Pacific Plate using the absolute and relative arrival times of over 8,000 earthquakes. constraints or combining surface wave dispersion, receiver function and Rayleigh
Using those arrival times we employ double difference seismic tomography to map wave ellipticity to more accurately resolve the velocity structures.
the composition of the eastern portion of the Pacific Plate. We analyze where
the layer boundaries are and what each subterranean strata is composed of with Lateral Variations of P-Wave Velocity Gradient in the Uppermost Mantle
regards to physics in terms of bulk strength. We find that strike-slip and convergent Under Eurasia
systems such as the San Andreas and Alaska-Yakutat boundaries compositions have YANG, X., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, xyang@lanl.gov
a higher bulk modulus and are less compressible than the material making up the
divergent boundary of the Nazca system. P-wave velocities in the uppermost mantle change with depth. The rate of this
velocity change, or the P-wave velocity gradient, plays an important role in shaping
The Surface Wave, Shear Wave Splitting, and Higher Mode Seismic the Pn propagation characteristics both in terms of its travel time and in terms of its
Anisotropy Comparison of the Mexican Subduction Zone. amplitude. The velocity gradient also varies laterally due to different uppermost-
STUBAILO, I., UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, stubailo@epss.ucla.edu; DAVIS, P. mantle conditions. In this study, I map the lateral variations of P-wave velocity
M., UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, pdavisucla@gmail.com gradient under Eurasia using observed Pn travel times. Eurasia is one of the few places
on the Earth with extensive Pn travel-time data coverage. I calculate path-specific
The Mexico subduction zone has excellent seismic data coverage due to the P-wave velocity gradients from observed Pn travel times incorporating predictions
2005-2007 Middle America Subduction Experiment (MASE) and the permanent from the Regional Seismic Travel Time model (RSTT) and the Sandia-Los Alamos
Mexican stations. Here, we present the anisotropy of the region using Surface 3D P-wave velocity model (SALSA3D). I assume that these path-specific gradients
waves, shear-wave splitting measurements, and higher modes. Our goal is to are the mathematical mean of laterallyvarying velocitygradients along the paths. The
verify and complement the three-dimensional model of shear-wave velocity and assumption is validated through a Monte Carlo simulation. Using a tomographic
anisotropy in the region constructed using Rayleigh wave phase velocity dispersion inversion, I construct a 2D P-wave velocity-gradient map for Eurasia from path-
measurements (Stubailo et al., JGR, 2012) and constrain the depth of the shear- specific velocity-gradient measurements. The vast regions of the gradient map
wave splitting anisotropy with the help of the n1-n5 overtones. The 3D model show similar P-wave velocity gradients with an average of about 0.0037 1/s. Most
contains lateral variations in shear wave velocity consistent with the presence ?variations, both high and low gradients, happen along plate boundaries and under
of flat and steep subduction, as well as variations in azimuthal anisotropy, that overriding plates, or in collision?zones. Very few places show negative? velocity
suggest a tear between the flat and steep portions of the slab. Shear-wave splitting gradients. The pattern suggests that strong P-wave velocity-gradient variations in
is effective for studying mantle anisotropy beneath the receivers and has a better most regions may be related to active upper-mantle tectonics in those regions.
lateral resolution than the Rayleigh wave phase velocity dispersion measurements,
although it suffers from a poor depth resolution. To better resolve the anisotropy
at depth, we calculate the anisotropy based on the higher mode surface waves Short-Period Surface-Wave Tomography from Ambient Noise: Alborz
of different overtones using least-squares fitting of the synthetic higher mode Mountain Region of Iran
seismograms to the data collected from the deep earthquakes. The three methods CRIPPEN, A. G., Boston University, Boston, MA, crip1236@bu.edu; FERRIS,
allow us to separate the anisotropy and its strength at different depths. A., Boston University, Boston, MA, ferris001@gmail.com; PRIESTLY, K.,
University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK, kfp10@cam.ac.uk; TATAR, M.,
Relating Seismic Subduction Images in Southern Peru to Mineralogy International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Tehran, Iran,
KIM, Y., Seoul National University, Seoul, S. Korea, younghkim@snu.ac.kr; mtatar@iiees.ac.ir
CLAYTON, R. W., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, 91125,
We use data from a temporary network of 28 seismic stations deployed in 2003
clay@gps.caltech.edu
to determine the surface-wave group velocity structure of the Alborz Mountain
We use data from the recent PeruSE seismic experiment in southern Peru to Region of Iran, an east-west trending range situated south of the Caspian Sea.
compare the variation in properties between the normal-dip portion of the The seismic network covers roughly a 150 km X 150 km region, with the
subduction interface and the flat slab-mantle interface. The analysis includes northernmost stations deployed in the narrow coastal plain of the Caspian Sea. We
migration of the receiver functions to determine the variations in shear and apply the ambient noise method to extract the short-period (2-15s) Rayleigh-wave
compressional velocities, and the detail measurements of along amplitudes of the Green’s functions by cross-correlating the vertical component records. The cross-
receiver-function images. Converted amplitudes at the top and bottom of the correlation station pairs have separation distances of 7-150 km. We measure the
Nazca oceanic crust are used to constrain shear wave velocity and density of the group velocity dispersion using a multiple filter technique. The initial model for
subducted crust, and these values are compared to those determined from the the inversion is based on previous work in the region by other scientists, including
experimental mineral physics. We also separately examine the stations closest to receiver function analysis from data recorded by this network. Preliminary analysis
the coast to explore how structural variations near the plate interface can be linked of the 1-D shear velocity structure shows that upper crustal velocities range from
to along-strike change in frictional behavior in the seismogenic zone. The results 1.6 to 2.2 km/s. The slowest velocities are north of the Alborz Mountains and are
will be compared to the flat subduction zones in Mexico and central Chile. possibly indicative of the thick sedimentary sequences of the Caspian Basin. To
increase ray coverage and model resolution, dispersion curves from local earthquake
data will also be included in the inversion.
Joint Inversion of Body Wave Receiver Function and Rayleigh Wave
Ellipticity
CHONG, J., Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Wuhan, Hubei, China, Shallow Crustal Discontinuities from High-Frequency Waveforms of Swarm
jiajunchong@foxmail.com; NI, S., Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Wuhan, Earthquakes in West Bohemia/Vogtland Seismoactive Area
Hubei, China, sdni@asch.whigg.ac.cn VAVRYCUK, V., Institute of Geophysics, Prague, Czech Republic, vv@ig.cas.cz;
HRUBCOVA, P., Institute of Geophysics, Prague, Czech Republic,
In recent years, surface wave dispersion has been used to image lithospheric pavla@ig.cas.cz; BOUSKOVA, A., Institute of Geophysics, Prague, Czech
structure jointly with receiver function, or Rayleigh wave ellipticity. However, Republic, ab@ig.cas.cz
they can only be applied to regions with dense seismic array or high seismicity
which makes possible tomography of surface wave dispersion. Unlike surface The West Bohemia/Vogtland region is the area of the increased geodynamic
wave dispersion which is integrated over the travel path, both receiver function activity manifested by repeated occurrence of intraplate earthquake swarms and
and Rayleigh wave ellipticity are single station measurements with localized fluid degassing. To understand geodynamic processes, knowledge of a detailed
sensitivities. Thus these two types of seismic measurements could be combined for crustal structure is essential. In our study we concentrate on detecting shallow
inversion naturally. In this study we explored the feasibility of the joint inversion crustal discontinuities from waveforms of local microearthquakes that occurred
of Rayleigh wave ellipticity and receiver function. We performed sensitivity tests during the 2008 swarm in the West Bohemia/Vogtland seismoactive region.
with forward modeling, and found that receiver function is sensitive to sharp The microearthquakes were recorded by the WEBNET network consisting of
velocity interfaces but shows weak sensitivity to long wave length structure, almost 22 three-component seismic stations. We focus on high-frequency PS and SP

on 09 October 2018
converted waves generated at shallow interfaces at depths between 2 and 5 km. future work, we will superimpose a deep velocity perturbation field expected from
Apart from the velocity contrast at the interfaces, the amplitudes of converted a subducting plate, and fit for its physical parameters.
waves are significantly affected by source-receiver geometry and focal mechanisms
of the earthquakes. This observation complicates the analysis, being absent in
processing of standard active seismic experiments with sources of rather uniform Development of a Low Cost Method to Estimate the Seismic Signature of a
radiation. The strong dependence of amplitudes of reflections/conversions on Geothermal Field from Ambient Seismic Noise Analysis
focal mechanisms and on the source-receiver geometry is confirmed by synthetic TIBULEAC, I. M., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, imtseismic@yahoo.com;
tests, which reveal preferential azimuths suitable for interpretation of data. In our PULLAMMANAPPALLIL, S., Optim Inc, Reno, NV, satish@
approach, we apply data rotation into multi-azimuthal sections, data alignment and optimsoftware.com; MCLACHLAN, H., University of Nevada, Reno, NV,
stacking to amplify reflected/converted phases, the ray tracing for calculation of the hmclachlan1@gmail.com
arrival times of the studied phases, analysis of reflection/transmission coefficients
in order to assess the amplitudes in real waveforms, synthetic modeling of full The objective of this study is the development of a new, non-invasive and cost-
waveforms using the discrete wave number method to compare synthetic full wave effective seismic velocity model estimation method, based on ambient noise
fields with recorded data, and the grid search algorithm as the robust inversion analysis, which will provide P and S seismic velocity models with a resolution of
tens to hundreds of m2, to a depth of at least 1 km. This method is also expected to
method. Good azimuthal coverage of stations and proper attention paid to focal
mechanisms and to the source-receiver geometry and especially their impact on the be effective for fault identification and geothermal reservoir characterization using
final shape of waveforms enables us retrieving even the topography of interfaces. seismic indicators based on attenuation, waveform spectral content and media
stochastic properties. The study area is a well-characterized geothermal resource
Seismic Structures in Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii at Soda Lake, in Fallon, Nevada. New records of ambient seismic noise along a
LIN, G., University of Miami, Miami, FL, glin@rsmas.miami.edu; SHEARER, passive reflection line at the same location as a 2010 Magma Energy active seismic
P. M., University of California, La Jolla, CA, pshearer@ucsd.edu; AMELUNG, line are processed with crosscorrelation and autocorrelation techniques to obtain
virtual shot - gathers, and compared to the active source results. The results are
F., University of Miami, Miami, FL, famelung@rsmas.miami.edu; OKUBO,
P. G., Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, HI, a set of virtual shot gathers and a starting model incorporating seismic model
pokubo@usgs.gov information from ground roll and from the P-reflection component of the GF’s at
each line sensor. New seismic data from a passive, 67 three-component geophone
Seismic velocity and attenuation of compressional (P) and shear (S) waves (Vp, array is used to estimate preliminary, lower resolution (˜ 100 m) 3D P- and S-
Vs, Qp, and Qs) and their respective ratios provide essential constraints on Earth velocity models. The models are estimated using ambient - noise extracted Green’s
properties because of their sensitivity to rock composition, fluid content, thermal Functions (GF’s). We analyze new, possible geothermal field seismic characteristics
effects, and other factors. Here we combine recent results from velocity and in terms of ambient-noise spectral content, scattering and attenuation, using data
attenuation tomography with a high-resolution technique for estimating in situ recorded at all sensors. We investigate the usefulness of stochastic heterogeneity,
Vp/Vs ratios to interpret structural heterogeneities of the crust and upper mantle of spectral properties and of attenuation variations for detecting productive
in Kilauea volcano, Hawaii. Our data are the first-arrival times and waveforms of geothermal reservoirs, and faults. We research possible fault indicators related
the compressional and shear waves from about 53,000 events on and near the Island to seismic scattering. We also investigate variations in the seismic noise spectral
of Hawaii between 1992 and 2009 recorded by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory content in a geothermal reservoir area. We assess productive geothermal reservoir
stations. We apply the simul2000 tomographic algorithm to invert for three- favorability using geostatistics methods of the newly obtained seismic information
dimensional velocity (Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs) and frequency-independent attenuation and existing geophysical data in the study area.
(Qp) models. Both of the models have a uniform horizontal grid spacing of 3
km with vertical node intervals ranging between 2 and 10 km down to 35 km
depth. The newly developed Qp model provides an important complement to the Comparison of Ambient Noise and Active Source Analysis of Shallow
velocity models for exploring the magmatic system and evaluating and interpreting Structures within an Urban Environment along the Kapiti Coast New Zealand
PANCHA, A., Victoria University, Wellington, NZ, Aasha.Pancha@vuw.ac.nz;
intrinsic physical properties of the rocks in the study area. The in situ Vp/Vs
approach provides precise results for near-source regions because cross-correlation TIBULEAC, I. M., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, imtseismic@yahoo.com;
can measure differential times to within a few milliseconds and can achieve a PULLAMMANAPPALLIL, S., Optim Inc., Reno, NV, satish@
precision of 0.001 in the estimated Vp/Vs ratio. The combination of these classic optimsoftware.com; STERN, T., Victoria University, Wellington, NZ
and state-of-the-art techniques provides new and robust constraints on the location This study describes the comparison of shallow structures imaged using active
and geometry of magma reservoirs and Kilauea structure in general, consistent with source exploration methods to results using ambient seismic noise, with emphasis
other geophysical and geological data. in the capability of ambient noise studies to resolve a vertical fault. The study area
is located along the urbanized Kapiti Coast, New Zealand. Data recorded by three
3 Dimensional Ray-Bending Seismic Tomography of the Peruvian Andes 48 high-frequency geophone linear arrays is collected and analysed using seismic
Crustal Root and the Subducting Nazca Plate. interferometry and Refraction Microttrmor (ReMi). Virtual shot gathers result
ABATCHEV, Z., University of California, Los Angeles, CA; DAVIS, P., from extraction of reflection Green’s Functions. Each Green’s function between two
University of California, Los Angeles, CA sensors (or at the same sensor) is the beam of cross-correlations (or autocorrelations)
ThePeruvianAndesareknowntobelocatedoveraregionofstronganomalouslydeep in multiple time windows. The existence of faulting long the profile is investigated
seismicity, which is not explained by friction models. Some hypotheses, including using a traditional active source reflection, and two passive techniques based on
water release by subducting mineral dehydration at the 660km discontinuity, as ambient seismic noise. Seismic interferometry provides a structural reflection image
and enhanced ground-roll data, while the ReMi technique provides a 2D shear-wave
well as anti-crack formation have been presented as explanations. However, there
is currently little seismic evidence to corroborate or falsify either hypothesis. While velocity representation. We assess the capability of each ambient noise technique to
seismic observation alone will likely not be able to determine the exact mechanism, estimate the location of a vertical fault. Several questions are answered through this
it can provide information which could guide computational models and laboratory study. First, can seismic interferometry produce the same results as active source
experiments. Itwould be especiallyuseful if we were able to determine the parameters analysis, in terms of fault description and velocity structure, and when comparing the
of the subducting Nazca plate, the exact earthquake hypocenter locations relative waveforms of individual shotgathers, for shortperiods of time (three hours)?Second,
to it. Existing tomography of the deep regions under the Peruvian Andes is of how similar are the ReMi velocity models and the models extracted from ground
roll obtained in the interferometry analysis? Third, we research whether there is an
low resolution, and cataloged earthquake locations are imprecise. Our goal is to
use data from the dense broadband PERUSE seismic network deployed in the optimal ambient noise source that maximizes the resultant seismic interferometry
Peruvian Andes in order to map deep local events, and provide a higher resolution data. Preliminary results show that the two ambient noise methodologies have
tomographic image of the subducting Nazca plate, using local and teleseismic the potential for locating faults under urban regions by utilizing high levels of
events. We have developed algorithms for detection, arrival time picking, and ambient noise, and may be used to identify areas susceptible to shaking during large
location of local events, as well a teleseismic arrival time picking algorithm. We earthquake events.
have also also developed a forward model for wave travel time calculation using
Fermat path rays, which allows us to calculate travel times and paths through A Test of a 13,000-kg Weight-Drop Seismic Source
3D heterogeneous media, adapting to velocity perturbations iteratively. We have ABBOTT, R. E., Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM; PRESTON,
modeled the velocity field using continental IASPEI perturbed by an asymmetric L., Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM
Gaussian crustal root along the strike of the Andes. By combining our forward
model with the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, we aim to simultaneously invert We present analysis of a multi-component, multi-channel, active-source seismic
for multiple earthquake locations and tomographic perturbation parameters. In dataset acquired at the Nevada National Security Site using a 13,000-kg weight-

on 09 October 2018
drop source. The purpose of the test was to determine the suitability of the presented indicating high stress level. We also find a correlation between coseismic
source for basin-scale characterization of Yucca Flat, Nevada. The source generates velocity decrease and the amount of coseismic slip on the rupture plane. The
seismic energy by lifting the mass 1.5 meters before dropping it on a 1.8-m observed variations in seismic velocity show the drastic response of the brittle crust
diameter plate. The resulting seismic energy was recorded by multiple arrays of in response to a major earthquake.
geophones and seismometers, with source-receiver offsets of 0-15 km. The sensors
comprise a mix of 1-Hz, 2-Hz and 4.5 Hz geophones, high-quality accelerometers, Extending SALSA3D: Adding Secondary Phases to a Global 3D Model for
and broadband seismometers, all of which recorded three components of ground Improved Seismic Event Location
motion. We present selected raw data, recovered shear-wave velocity profiles from BEGNAUD, M. L., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM,
surface-wave analysis, and recovered P-wave velocity structure from refraction mbegnaud@lanl.gov; BALLARD, S., Sandia National Laboratories,
tomography. We will also discuss operational issues and suitability of the source Albuquerque, NM, sballar@sandia.gov; YOUNG, C. J., Sandia National
for different operational environments. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi- Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, cjyoung@sandia.gov; HIPP, J. R.,
program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, jrhipp@sandia.gov;
subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy’s ENCARNACAO, A. V., Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM,
National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. avencar@sandia.gov; MACEIRA, M., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los
Alamos, NM, mmaceira@lanl.gov; PHILLIPS, W. S., Los Alamos National
Error Analysis and Temporal Variations of Cross-Correlations of Ambient Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87544, wsp@lanl.gov; CHAEL, E. P., Sandia
Noise National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, epchael@sandia.gov; ROWE, C. A.,
LIU, X., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, char@lanl.gov
liuxine@icloud.com; BEN-ZION, Y., University of Southern California,
Los Angeles, CA, benzion@usc.edu; ZIGONE, D., University of Southern The SALSA3D (SAndia LoS Alamos 3D) global three-dimensional P-velocity
California, Los Angeles, CA, zigone@usc.edu tomography model of the Earth’s crust and mantle has been shown to significantly
improve seismic event location accuracy and precision, compared to standard 1D
We analyze errors in cross-correlations of ambient seismic noise with a different and 2/2.5D models. This improvement has been demonstrated using data from
approach from previous time domain methods. Extending theoretical results the International Monitoring System (IMS), a sparse, global seismic network.
on ensemble averaged cross-spectrum (Liu & Ben-Zion, 2013), we estimate In relocation tests using the IMS network, over 80% of the defining arrivals are
confidence interval for each frequency value. We cross correlate synthetic regional Pn or teleseismic P phases. There is a small percentage of phases that
stationary ambient noise data to estimate the confidence intervals for different requires a model that supports secondary phase prediction. We have updated the
length of noise data and different frequency content. Natural continuous noise SALSA3D model to include an S-velocity component and plan to update the
records are more complex and contain both ambient noise and small earthquakes P-velocity model using secondary compressional phases. Our model is derived
that are inseparable from noise with existing preprocessing steps. A simple from the latest version of the ground truth catalog of travel-time picks assembled
statistical method can exclude such small earthquakes (outliers) from continuous by Los Alamos National Laboratory. The model is represented using the triangular
noise waveform, using probability distributions based on the theoretical results. tessellation system described by Ballard et al. (2009), which incorporates variable
We apply this technique to study temporal variations of ambient noise cross- resolution in both geographic and radial dimensions. Sufficient damping is used
correlations recorded by seismic stations near the San Jacinto fault zone. Initial to reduce velocity adjustments so that ray path changes between iterations are
results, considering confidence intervals, indicate robust variations in amplitudes small. We obtain proper model smoothness by progressively refining the grid
and phases of the cross-correlations. in areas where it is warranted by the data. Our approach produces a smooth,
multi-resolution model with node density appropriate to both ray coverage and
Multi-pathing of Rayleigh Waves Retrieved from Ambient Seismic Noises the velocity gradients required by the data. We compare the travel-time prediction
XIA, Y. J., Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Wuhan, Huibei, China; NI, S. D., and location capabilities of the updated SALSA3D model to standard 1D and
Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Wuhan, Hubei, China, sdni@whigg.ac.cn 2/2.5D models via location tests on a global set of ground truth events. We
compare location results using a subset of these events that have a significant
It has been proposed that Green’s functions (the estimated Green’s function, EGF) number of phases with which to produce random realizations of actual arrival
can be retrieved from cross correlation of ambient seismic noises recorded on data. Further tests will involve using events and their arrivals specifically for the
two seismic stations. Various studies demonstrates that Rayleigh waves emerge IMS network, to test the use of a 3D model on an operational network intended
on EGF in the frequency band of seconds to dozens of seconds, and the travel for explosion monitoring.
time dispersion data has been adopted in surface wave tomography extensively.
Moreover, the accuracy of travel time dispersion of noise Rayleigh wave is assessed
with data from a portable seismic station co-located with a ground truth location A Synthetic Study into the Causes and Solutions for the Non-Uniqueness in
earthquake. However, in most previous studies, noise Rayleigh waves are assumed the Surface Wave Inversion
to propagate along single ray path, and travel time dispersion are measured and HOSSEINI, M., AECOM Corporation, Los Angeles, CA, mehrdad.hosseini@
used in tomography over the supposed ray path. Here we demonstrate that urs.com; PEZESHK, S., The University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, spezeshk@
noise Rayleigh waves propagate along more than one paths via comparison with memphis.edu
earthquake Rayleigh wave data. EGFs are retrieved between seismic stations in
Surface waves recorded on geophones are used to estimate the near-surface velocity
Alaska and southern California, and the noise Rayleigh waves show clear multi- structure. However, the inversion of phase velocity dispersion curves can be
pathing effects when the ray paths are close coast lines. The multi-pathing problematic as the non-uniqueness can affect the resulting velocity profile. In this
effects argue for waveform tomography of noise EGFs instead of travel time only
study, a synthetic test is developed where the theoretical phase velocity dispersion
tomography. curve from a known velocity profile is treated as the experimental dispersion curve
mimicking field acquisition. Four sources that potentially may introduce non-
Co-Seismic Velocity Change Associated With the 2011 M7.1 Van/Turkey uniqueness into the surface wave inversion are assumed, including (1) tolerance
Earthquake: Crustal Response to a Major Event levels for convergence , (2) noise in the data, (3) lower limit of frequency in the
ACAREL, D., GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, acarel@gfz- dispersion curve, and (4) the methodology used for handling parameters other
potsdam.de; BULUT, F., AFAM Research Center, Istanbul Aydın University, than the shear-wave velocity and thickness (such as the Poisson’s ratio). Effects of
Istanbul, Turkey; BOHNHOFF, M., GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Potsdam, these four sources on increasing the degree of non-uniqueness in the dispersion
Germany inversion process are investigated by modeling the error space. It is observed that
Monitoring coseismic velocity changes stands as a major challenge, since the non-uniqueness can be easily developed due to any of the four aforementioned cases
Earth crust has to be uniformly sampled at preseismic, coseismic, and postseismic making the inversion process unreliable. Consequently, a method to constraint the
stages using either repeating or natural sources. Here, coseismic velocity change non-uniqueness is proposed which uses waveform matching along with the phase
velocity dispersion inversion.
associated with the 2011 Van Earthquake (Eastern Turkey) is investigated using
seismic ambient noise. Green’s functions are estimated utilizing the cross- and
auto-correlations of the noise field for a time period of six months framing the Standardized Access to Seismic Velocity Models Using the Unified
mainshock. Coda part of the stacked Green’s functions is analyzed to investigate Community Velocity Model (UCVM) Software
the variations in seismic velocity. We observe a coseismic velocity decrease of GILL, D., Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA,
up to 0.76% in the vicinity of the main shock. The velocity drop is largest at davidgil@usc.edu; SMALL, P., University of Southern California, Los Angeles,
close proximity to the earthquake hypocenter and decreases with distance. At CA, patrices@usc.edu; TABORDA, R., Center for Earthquake Research
hypocentral depths, an increase of about ˜0.50% outside the high-slip area is and Information, Memphis, TN, ricardo.taborda@memphis.edu; LEE, E.,

on 09 October 2018
University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, enjuilee@usc.edu; OLSEN, wave coda of local earthquake data recorded in the West Bohemia/Vogtland area.
K. B., San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, kbolsen@mail.sdsu.edu; This region is well known thanks to the repeated occurrence of earthquake swarms.
MAECHLING, P., Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, We worked with data from the 2011 earthquake swarm, which started late August
maechlin@usc.edu; JORDAN, T. H., Southern California Earthquake Center, and lasted with decreasing intensity for another 4 months. Results of the traditional
Los Angeles, CA, tjordan@usc.edu coda method show seismic attenuations decreasing with frequency, what is in
agreement with observations worldwide. We also found decrease of attenuation
Recent advances in seismic imaging and monitoring tools and techniques are with increasing hypocentral distance and increasing lapse time. These observed
producing many new and improved seismic velocity models. Standard methods characteristics can be interpreted by many ways, e.g. as a depth dependency of
for distributing seismic velocity models to researchers for review and application Q or due to crust anisotropy. Results of the MLTWA method, that allows for
are needed. To meet this need, researchers at the Southern California Earthquake separation of scattering and intrinsic loss show that in our case scattering dominates
Center (SCEC) have developed the Unified Community Velocity Model attenuation. More, the values and frequency dependence of the 1/Qc is very
(UCVM) software framework. The UCVM is a collection of software tools similar to the 1/Qi. Aki K and Chouet B (1975) “Origin of Coda Waves: Source,
and application programming interfaces designed to provide standardized access Attenuation and Scattering Effects“ J Geophys Res, 80: 3,322 – 3,342 Fehler M,
to multiple seismic velocity models used in seismology and geophysics research. Hoshiba M, Sato H and Obara K (1991) “Separation of Scattering and Intrinsic
Although UCVM was conceived as a tool to aid physics-based earthquake ground- Attenuation for the Kanto-Tokai Region, Japan, Using Measurements of S-wave
motion simulation and regional seismic hazard assessment, it can be, and has Energy versus hypocentral Distance“ Geophys J Int, 108: 787-800 Sato H and
been used in other geoscience and engineering applications. Here, we describe Fehler M (2009) Seismic wave propagation and scattering in the heterogeneous
the development of UCVM and its various software components and features, Earth, AIP Press/Springer Verlag, New Yor
including its use in high-performance parallel computers, and present examples
of recent applications of UCVM tools in geoscience and earthquake engineering
Seismic Interferometry Using Regional Earthquake Records
research. We also describe how new and existing CVMs can easily be integrated
JUAREZ, A., Institute of Engineering, Mexico City, Mexico,
into the UCVM framework. Once a velocity model has been integrated into the
framework, the UCVM software makes it easy to extract P and S wave propagation zu.alan.zu@gmail.com; RAMIREZ-GUZMAN, L., Institute of Engineering,
speeds and other material properties from velocity models by providing a common Mexico City, Mexico, lramirezg@iingen.unam.mx; RABADE, S., Institute of
interface and easy-to-use tools through which researchers can query earth models Engineering, Mexico City, Mexico, san.rabade@gmail.com
for a given location and depth and build discrete 3D grids and meshes that can
We study the Greent’s function (GF) retrieval based on the cross-correlation of
be used in simulation and other research efforts. The UCVM supports creation
numerically generated seismograms and its application to tomographic studies
of very large meshes by providing parallel query utilities that enable researchers to
in central Mexico. The GF between two receivers is usually obtained based on
build meshes with > 10ˆ9 elements very rapidly as compared to standard serial
the cross-correlation of seismic noise recorded in two stations. In this research,
methods. The UCVM also provides visualization scripts for constructing cross-
we use large-scale earthquake simulations to construct appropriate signals of the
sections, horizontal slices, basin depths, and Vs30 maps, enabling researchers to
displacements at two stations due to a small number of double-couple sources
visually review velocity models.
in order to retrieve the Greent’s function between receivers. We analyzed the
case of a layered half-space and a realistic three-dimensional model of central
Vp/Vs Ratios of the Source Region of West Bohemian Earthquake Swarms Mexico. Following the standard interferometry theory, we successfully obtained
BACHURA, M., Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic, martin. the impulse response by applying the cross-correlation of the full record, not just
bachura@natur.cuni.cz; FISCHER, T., Charles University, Prague, Czech the coda. Our research aims to elucidate the applicability of seismic interferometry
Republic, fischer@natur.cuni.cz to the extension of the frequency range and quality of tomographic studies.
Seismicity of the West Bohemian area expresses itself in the form of so called Thus, we show the results of the GF obtained using observed regional earthquake
earthquake swarms. During the swarm periods weeks to months) thousands of records in Mexico and conclude that a fair recovery is achieved. Finally, we
events occur within a small source region. The activity is often associated with obtained velocity profiles at selected stations pairs and compare with previous
fluid or gas migration. Dahm and Fischer (2013) have applied the so-called double- studies.
difference Wadati method (see also Lin and Shearer, 2007) to estimate the Vp/Vs
ratio from the arrival times of the earthquake swarms of 1997, 2000 and 2008. This Joint Inversion of Seismic and Gravity Data for Velocity Structure and
method enables the estimation of the velocity ratios in the small source region. A Hypocentral Locations of the Colombian Subduction Zone
strong temporal decrease of Vp/Vs (down to 1.4) was observed before or during SYRACUSE, E. M., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM,
the main activity of the swarms; it recovered to the background levels at the end syracuse@lanl.gov; MACEIRA, M., Los Alamos National Laboratory,
and after the swarm activity.The anomalies were interpreted in terms of the Biot- Los Alamos, NM, mmaceira@lanl.gov; PRIETO, G. A., Massachusetts
Gassman equations, assuming the presence of oversaturated fluids degassing during Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, gprieto@mit.edu; ZHANG,
the beginning phase of the swarm activity. In this study we extend the analysis H., University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui, China,
to the recent earthquake activities: swarm 2011 and three mainshock-aftershock zhang11@ustc.edu.cn; AMMON, C. J., Pennsylvania State University, University
sequences of 2014. In order to achieve more robust velocity ratios with higher Park, PA, charlesammon@psu.edu
resolution in time and space we used waveform cross-correlation techniques to
derive the precise travel time differences. Preliminary results show similar behavior Joint inversions of geophysical data recover models that simultaneously fit multiple
of Vp/Vs – decrease during the initial phase of the activity (down to 1.5) and types of constraints while taking advantage of the differing sensitivities of each
recovery after (up to 1.7). This might indicate the presence of gas phase in the fault data type. Here, we combine body wave arrival times with surface wave dispersion
zone and its relation to the triggering mechanisms of the earthquakes during the measurements and gravity observations to develop a combined 3D P- and S-wave
2011 swarm and 2014 mainshock-aftershock sequences. Dahm, T., and Fischer, T., velocity model for the crust and upper mantle of the Colombian subduction zone.
2013. Velocity ratio variations in the source region of earthquake swarms in NW P- and S-wave arrival times were obtained for local earthquakes from instruments
Bohemia obtained from arrival time double-differences. Geophys. J. Int. 196, 957- in the Colombian National Seismic Network. Rayleigh wave dispersion curves were
970. Lin, G., Shearer, P. M. 2009. Evidence for water-filled cracks in earthquake inverted for using a subset of network stations and larger local earthquakes. Gravity
source regions. Geophys.Res. Lett. 36, L17315, doi:10.1029/2009GL039098. observations were extracted from the global satellite-based model EGM2008.
Preliminary results show reduced velocities beneath the volcanic arc in the upper
Attenuation of the Coda Waves in West Bohemia Earthquake Swarm Region 30 km of the crust. Hypocentral relocations indicate a clear discontinuity in
BACHURA, M., Charles University, , martin.bachura@natur.cuni.cz; intermediate-depth seismicity centered at 5◦ N latitude, where the southern
FISCHER, T., Charles University, , fischer@natur.cuni.cz region of seismicity is ˜200 km trenchward of the northern portion, coincident
with the termination of arc volcanism, which has been recently interpreted to
Contribution and magnitude of the wave attenuation processes can be derived be due to a slab tear [Vargas and Mann, 2013]. High velocities associated with
from the tail part of the seismogram – coda (strictly speaking S-wave coda), the subducting slab(s) also indicate a discontinuity below 100 km depth between
as the attenuation influences the shape and amplitudes of coda (e.g. Aki and the southern (Nazca) and northern (Caribbean) portions of the subduction
Chouet, 1975; Sato and Fehler, 2009). Numerous methods have been developed zone. The northern portion of the subduction zone is generally characterized
for estimation of attenuation properties from the decay rate of coda amplitudes by broadly elevated velocities, which may be consistent with a slab of an old,
(e.g. Aki and Chouet, 1975; Fehler et al., 1991). We used standard coda-method to thickened Caribbean Plate origin. The interaction between the edges of the
estimate the 1/Qc - attenuation of coda waves and more sophisticated MLTWA Nazca and Caribbean slabs may contribute to the seismicity of the Bucaramanga
method to separate scattering and intrinsic loss – 1/Qsc, Qi. We analyzed the S- nest.

on 09 October 2018
fluids. To better understand the possible relationship between fluids and seismic
Seismic Sources and Seismicity Studies swarms in Utah, we used Cluster2000 (Reasenberg, 1985) to identify earthquake
Poster Session · Wednesday · 22 April · Exhibit Hall A clusters in the UUSS seismicity catalog for the period of 1981-2014. Each
cluster was visually categorized as a swarm or non-swarm sequence based on its
pattern of seismicity over time. Clusters with minimal or no seismicity preceding
Distinguishing Artifacts of Earthquake Catalog Errors from Genuine an outstanding mainshock were identified as non-swarm clusters while clusters
Seismicity Patterns with increasing then decreasing seismicity, independent from an outstanding
ZALIAPIN, I., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, zal@unr.edu; BEN-ZION, Y., mainshock, were identified as swarm clusters (Mogi, 1963). We found that of the
University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, benzion@usc.edu 86 identified clusters there were 33 swarm sequences, 43 non-swarm sequences,
and 10 ambiguous sequences that could not be confidently identified. These results
Quantitative characterization of spatio-temporal seismicity patterns in relation to change only slightly when Cluster2000 tuning parameters are changed, largely
physical properties of the lithosphere is a fundamental problem of seismology. corresponding to the addition of earthquakes to existing clusters rather than
Recently, we approached this problem by using new statistical tools for reclassification of the clusters themselves. In general, we find a predominance of
identification and classification of seismicity clusters in the relatively uniform swarms in central Utah, consistent with a previous analysis of the UUSS catalog
high-quality southern California catalog of Hauksson et al. (2013). This led for the period of 1981-2006 that used a different clustering algorithm (Arabasz
to recognition of three basic types of clusters: bursts in relatively cold areas, et al., 2007). We have begun using waveform correlation methods to detect small
swarms in relatively hot ones, and distributed singles consisting of isolated events events in swarm sequences that are missed by conventional UUSS techniques, and
without foreshocks or aftershocks. The commonly used Epidemic Type Aftershock will present results for swarms that occurred near the Marysvale volcanic province
Sequence (ETAS) model accounts only for the burst-type clusters. Extending these in central Utah.
results to other seismically active areas and lower magnitude ranges, as well as to
studying induced seismicity, however, is impeded by inferior quality of available
Earthquake Frequency - Magnitude Distribution and Fractal Dimension in
data. Most available catalogs are based on non-uniform recordings/analyses that
Northern California
lead to non-uniform (in space, time, magnitude) location errors, varying magnitude
KARIMI, S., Nanometrics, Ottawa, ON, Canada, sepidehkarimi@
of completeness, and other problems. These non-uniformities may (and do)
nanometrics.ca; BATURAN, D., Nanometrics, Ottawa, ON, Canada,
produce artificial patterns in the space-time-magnitude clusters of seismicity
dariobaturan@nanometrics.ca; GREIG, W., Nanometrics, Ottawa, ON,
detected by our, as well as other, methods. In this work we document the effects
Canada, wesgreig@nanometrics.ca; LAW, A., Nanometrics, Ottawa, ON,
of catalog errors on inferred cluster properties, and report some striking patterns
Canada, andrewlaw@nanometrics.ca
that emerge as artifacts of those errors. This includes (i) inflated distance-to-parent,
(ii) underestimated offspring productivity, (iii) overestimated background rate, The aim of this study is to 1) show how the heterogeneity of seismogenic volumes
(iv) apparent magnitude dependence, (v) fluctuations in the proportion of singles, can lead to differences in the fractal dimension (D-value) and the slope of the
and other effects. We also discuss additional differences between the ETAS model frequency – magnitude relationship (b-value) and 2) demonstrate the correlation
and observed seismicity. Finally, we propose a generalization of our method that in the temporal variation of these two parameters and the time of large magnitude
involves assigning multiple possible parents to each event, and discuss some graph- earthquakes. Local distribution of D and b values, as well as their ratio, reveal
theoretic techniques that may provide results that are more robust to location information about geological complexity and changes in the stress level in the
errors and other catalog deficiencies. region of study. The earthquake catalog of Northern California reported by U.S.
Geological Survey is used for this investigation with a focus on recent seismicity.
Earthquake Cluster Identification in the San Jacinto Fault Zone The dataset is recorded by the Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN)
ZHANG, Q., University of California, San Diego, CA, qiz075@ucsd.edu; which operates 580 stations in northern and central California and acquires
SHEARER, P. M., University of California, San Diego, CA data from an additional 159 stations maintained by other institutions. Using
the maximum curvature method (Wiemer and Wyss, 2000), we calculate the
Understanding earthquake clustering in space and time is important but also magnitude of completeness at each grid point in the region of interest and find
challenging because of complexities in earthquake patterns and the large and that it varies from M 0.3 to M > 1.0. Utilizing the correlation integral and
diverse nature of earthquake catalogs. Seismicity clusters in the form of aftershock spatial distribution of events, we determine earthquake sub-clusters. Along with
sequences or swarms are common across southern California and several previous the analysis of spatial variation of the b and D values, we also evaluate temporal
studies have identified clusters either by applying fixed selection criteria based on changes of these two parameters and their ratio for different earthquake clusters.
a specific spatiotemporal window or by more general statistical measures. Here we Strong correlation is observed between fluctuation in b and D values, the time of
aim to find additional clusters that may have fewer events or span different spatial the largest magnitude event and the number of events in successive time windows
and temporal scales than those previously identified. As a proof-of-concept test, at each cluster. The outcome of this research is in good agreement with other
we study the M = 2.0 relocated earthquake catalog between 1990 and 2013 in the published studies for this area (eg; Wyss et al 2004, Okubo & Aki, 1987). Our
San Jacinto Fault zone (SJF), where a high number of swarms are expected due results confirm that monitoring variations in b and D values as well as their ratio in
to possible slow slip events at depth. Using a modified definition of neighboring time and space can be used to effectively identify earthquake clusters and also as a
events in space and time (Zaliapin and Ben-Zion, 2011), we search for the nearest potential large earthquake precursor.
neighbors in the events following each target event. We quantify the clustering
strength by comparing the number of neighbors to the preceding and following Analysis on the Possibility of the Independence Between the 2013 Lushan
background events within larger space/time windows. Besides several M = 4 Earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake on Longmen Shan Fault,
earthquakes (including three M = 5 earthquakes) and their aftershock sequences, Sichuan, China
we identify some new tightly clustered groups, which start not with their largest KE, K. J., Peking University, Beijing, China, jk.at.pku@gmail.com; SHIYONG, S.
event, but earthquakes between M2 and M3. We regard these clusters as swarm- Y. Z., Peking University, Beijing, China, zsy@pku.edu.cn; JIANCANG, J. C. Z.,
like sequences. Our preliminary results indicate these swarms in the SJF mainly The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan, zhuangjc@gmail.com;
occur at its northern and southern ends, i.e., near the San Andreas Fault and Salton CHANGSHENG JIANG, C. S. J., Institute of Geophysics, Beijing, China,
Trough. jiangcs@cea-igp.ac.cn
Characterization of Seismic Swarms in Utah The relationship between the 2013 Lushan earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan
BATCHELOR, C. E., University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, chasebatch@ earthquake is still under debate. One view is that the Lushan earthquake is
gmail.com; KOPER, K. D., University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, the strongest aftershock of the Wenchuan earthquake and the converse opinion
koper@seis.utah.edu; PANKOW, K. L., University of Utah, Salt Lake believes that the Lushan earthquake is an independent event. To clean up
City, UT, pankow@seis.utah.edu this debate, we use the ETAS (Epidemic-type aftershock sequence) model
and the stochastic declustering method to obtain the background/independent
The University of Utah Seismograph Stations (UUSS) detects and locates about probabilities of the Lushan earthquake. The results show that, the proportion of
1,500 earthquakes per year in the Utah region. Similar to other seismically active contributions to the occurrence of the Lushan earthquake from the aftershock
regions in the intermountain west, a significant fraction of these earthquakes effect (in the sense of the ETAS model), the increment of the background
occur in swarms, without a traditional mainshock/aftershock pattern. The source seismicity, and the original background seismicity are, respectively, 12%, 50% and
mechanism of swarms in Utah is not well understood, although previous work 38%. The combined (coseismic plus postseismic)Coulomb failure stress (CFS)
points to stress induced by the propagation of either hydrothermal or magmatic changes on the hypocenter of the Lushan earthquake are brought 0.1˜0.4 bars

on 09 October 2018
closer to failure. Thus, we proposethe occurrence of the Lushan earthquake was algorithm will provide accurate automated single station event detection for WIS
dramatically affected by the Wenchuan earthquake. stick-slip events.
Gorda and Juan de Fuca Plate Seismicity Recorded by the Cascadia Initiative Seismic Zones Regionalization of the Red Sea Region
and Blanco Transform Fault Zone Seismic Arrays ALAMRI, A., King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, amsamri@ksu.edu.sa
GHORBANI, P., Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, pghorbani@
coas.oregonstate.edu; NABELEK, J., Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, Seismogenic source zones are composed of systems of faults or lineaments or rift
nabelek@coas.oregonstate.edu; BRAUNMILLER, J., University of South systems whose boundaries do not traverse generally other tectonic units. Some of
Florida, Tampa, FL, jbraunmiller@usf.edu the seismogenic source zones are relatively large due to scarcity of earthquakes in
the Arabian Shield. From these considerations, there are eighteen (18) seismogenic
We use data from the Cascadia Initiative (CI; year 1 and year 2) and Blanco source zones that were identified and delineated. Although there is no known
Transform Fault Zone arrays of ocean bottom seismometers and hydrophones seismic source directly under the Red Sea region, there are numerous sources
to investigate the seismicity of the Juan de Fuca and Gorda plate regions. In nearby that can cause damaging seismic shaking in Arabian Shield cities. Large
year 1 (2011-2012), the CI array consisting of 70 stations was deployed across earthquakes in the Red Sea can result in felt and possibly damaging ground motions
the northern Juan de Fuca plate, while in year 2 (2012-2013) the array was at long-periods (1-10 s). Such ground motions are of concern for large engineered
redeployed in Gorda plate region. Concurrently with the CI year-2 deployment, structures, such as tall buildings and long bridges with resonant periods in the same
an independent array of 55 instruments was deployed along the Blanco Transform band (1-10 s). Generally, the application of this method is the first of its kind in the
Fault Zone (BTFZ). We used the Antelope software package (Boulder Real Time Arabian Shield and Red Sea, nevertheless, there are strong indications of accuracy
Technologies) for automatic detection and location of the local and regional from the results that the modeling is significantly appropriate. These seismogenic
seismic events. An event is declared if at least 7 P arrivals are detected at stations source zones are characterized by the presence of one or two of the probable source
close to the epicenter. During year 1 about 300 regional events were detected and mechanisms such as rift systems, strike-slip and normal faults. The spatio-temporal
only a few of them occurred within the array. The majority of the events occurred distribution of seismic events in the rift systems shows intense but scattered crustal
on the BTFZ and the Juan de Fuca Ridge. In year 2, with dense arrays deployed deformation taking place along the axial rift. The b-values for these seismic source
in the highly active regions, over 20,000 seismic events were well recorded. Most areas range from 0.7-1.2.
of the seismicity in year 2 is located along the BTFZ and in the Mendocino triple
junction area. Earthquakes are also detected along the Gorda Ridge and Mendocino
Transform Fault and important events are found in the subduction zone between Seismic Crisis at Chiles and Cerro Negro Volcanoes
44◦ and 45◦ N. Intra-plate earthquakes are detected in the Gorda plate as well as TORRES CORREDOR, R., Servicio Geológico Colombiano, Pasto, Colombia,
the Pacific plate. rtorres@sgc.gov.co; CADENA IBARRA, O., Servicio Geológico Colombiano,
Pasto, Colombia, ocadena@sgc.gov.co; GÓMEZ MARTÍNEZ, D., Servicio
Geológico Colombiano, Pasto, Colombia, dgomez@sgc.gov.co; RUIZ, M.,
Retrieving Source Time Functions of Regional Phases and Coda Using Array Instituto Geofisico EPN, Ecuador, mruiz@igepn.edu.ec; PREJEAN, S. ID-USGS
Data Volcano Disaster Assistance Program, Anchorage, AK, sprejean@usgs.gov;
XIE, J., AFRL/RVBYE, Albuquerque, NM, jiakang.xie@gmail.com LYONS, J., USGS Volcano Science Center, Alaska Volcano Observatory,
Anchorage, AK, jlyons@usgs.gov; WHITE, R.ID-USGS Volcano Disaster
Source time functions (STFs) are generally expected to vary with P and S wave Assistance Program, Menlo Park, CA, rwhite@usgs.gov
types, and the source types. There has been no systematic analysis of STFs of
the regional waveforms which are very complex and often unstable owing to the The region of Chiles and Cerro Negro volcanoes, located on the border
cumulative path effects by the 3D Earth structure. The empirical Green’s function of Colombia and Ecuador, has experienced a dramatic and ongoing seismic
(EGF) analysis is probably the only viable method to retrieve these STFs, but crisis beginning in August 2013. Based on concern for local residents, a
its applicability is limited. This is so because it is difficult to find pairs of large cooperative broadband monitoring network was installed by the Servicio
and small (green’s function) events that are recorded on-scale in sufficiently wide Geológico Colombiano in Colombia and the Instituto Geofísico of the Escuela
frequency bands. In particular, waveforms from the smaller event tend to have Politécnica Nacional in Ecuador. Earthquake swarms with increasing energy
lower signal/noise ratios at lower frequencies of a fraction of a Hz. We attempt occurred in August-October 2013, March-May 2014, and September-December
to use the EGF approach to retrieve STFs of moderate earthquakes in Central and 2014. By the end of 2014, roughly 400 earthquakes greater than M 3 had occurred
Eastern Asia for regional waves and coda. Array data is used whenever possible to with a maximum rate of 8000 earthquakes per day. The largest earthquake was a 5.6
enhance the retrieved STFs, which can be examined to see whether their pulse ML on 20 October 2014. Most earthquakes have impulsive P- and S- wave arrivals
shapes, rise times and durations vary with the types of waves. We still consider and broadband energy release characteristic of brittle failure volcano-tectonic (VT)
our approach to be somewhat risky. We will report a re-assessed feasibility of this earthquakes. These earthquakes are located in a cluster beneath the southern flank
approach by examining the robustness and features of the retrieved STFs from of Chiles volcano extending 8 km southwest of Chiles, with depths between 1.5 and
earthquakes in central and eastern Asia. 10 km. Relative earthquake relocations reveal a structure consistent with mapped
regional faults. Although the great majority of earthquakes are VT, some low-
frequency ( LF, ˜0.5 Hz) and very-low-frequency (VLF) events have occurred as
Recognition of Stick-Slip Surface Wave Signals from the Whillans Ice well, most notably on April 30. This seismicity is likely controlled by an interaction
Stream: a Data Mining Approach Combining Subspace Detection and of magmatic and tectonic processes. We infer that magma intrusion at depths
Random Forest Classification greater than 5 km and resulting fluid exsolution are driving seismicity in the
BERNSEN, S. P., New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM, Chiles-Cerro Negro region, but earthquakes are failing in a manner consistent
stevenbernsen@gmail.com with regional tectonics. Because the regional stress field is highly compressional and
the volcanoes are long dormant, magma and fluids cannot easily ascend. So far no
The temporal understanding of a glaciers response is limited by the Antarctic
degassing or changes in the hydrothermal system have been detected at the surface.
and Arctic seasonal ability to conduct experiments. With the recognition of
Based on the accumulated seismic moment and the distal VT model of White and
glacial earthquakes in Greenland and Antarctica on seismograms, along with
McCausland, we estimate a volume of intruded magma close to 35 million cubic
the continuous recording of globally telemetered stations, there is an increased
meters.
aptitude to remotely study the temporal changes of ice sheet flow. The Whillans
Ice Stream (WIS) has been recognized to exhibit periodic stick-slip events, and
previous work has identified Rayleigh waves from these events arriving ˜990 km Earthquakes Trigger True Polar Wander Over Geological Times
away at station VNDA in Wright Valley, Antarctica. These observations provide a CAMBIOTTI, G., University of Milan, Milan, Italy, gabriele.
training set to accurately identify and detect WIS stick-slip events occuring within cambiotti@unimi.it; WANG, X., Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing,
VNDA’s 21 years of continuous data. Stacked waveforms and envelope functions China, 18810514681@163.com; SABADINI, R., University of Milan, Milan,
corresponding to each phase arrival were used to screen then parameterize the Italy, roberto.sabadini@unimi.it; YUEN, D. A., University of Minnesota,
timeseries data taken from VNDA. During the cross correlation search, at least one Minneapolis, MN, daveyuen@gmail.com
phase arrival was picked from the known events. The additional parameters were
input into a Random Forest and cross validated for training giving a classification Mantle convection has been considered to be the major mechanism for driving
rate that was on average 96% while false positives were 1% or less. A comparison True Polar Wander (TPW), which is the slow motion of the rotation axis
with nearby stations SBA and SPA show that station VNDA has the strongest with respect to the hotspot reference frame for time scales of million years.
archived signal for detecting stick-slip events. With further development, this Nevertheless, simulated TPW paths are smoother than those inferred from

on 09 October 2018
paleomagnetic data and, thus, mantle convection fails to some extent to account local magnitudes were recalculated and there appears to be a slight decrease in the
for the succession of periods of fast TPW and quasi-standstill, inferred from average b value leading up to the large 20 October event. This rich data set presents
paleomagnetic data. Furthermore this explanation neglects the complementary an opportunity to probe the possible preparatory process a previously dormant
phenomenon of seismicity, especially of giant earthquakes at subduction zones. By stratovolcano undergoes in the lead up to more rigorous surficial volcanic activity.
developing a model of global seismicity based on the seismic moment conservation
principle, the Anderson’s theory of faulting and plate motion reconstruction for
the late Mesozoic and Cenozoic, we show that seismicity could compete with
mantle convection in controlling long-term rotational dynamics of the Earth.
Earthquakes, taken collectively over geological times, causes rapid and abrupt true
polar wander events and can induce polar excursions of the order of tens of degrees Slow Earthquakes: Diversity in Fault Motion and Their
during periods of large-scale plate reorganization in the late Mesozoic. Seismicity Implications in Earthquake Dynamics
thus provides an explanation for episodic TPW events observed in paleomagnetic Poster Session · Wednesday · 22 April · Exhibit Hall A
data.
Multi-Decadal Analysis of Global Trends in Microseism Intensities: A Proxy Shallow Up-Dip Deformation, Tremor, and Very-Low-Frequency Earthquakes
for Changes in Storm Activity and Oceanic Wave State at an Erosional Margin: 6 Years of Data from the Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica
ANTHONY, R. E., Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, SCHWARTZ, S. Y., University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, syschwar@
RANTHONY3036@GMAIL.COM; ASTER, R. C., Colorado State University, ucsc.edu; HERNANDEZ, S., Insituto Geofisico, Quito, Ecuador,
Fort Collins, CO, Rick.Aster@colostate.edu; ROWE, C., Los Alamos National hernandez.stephen@gmail.com
Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, char@lanl.gov
The Nicoya Peninsula is an obducted ophiolitic peninsula in northwest Costa Rica.
The Earth’s seismic noise spectrum features two globally ubiquitous peaks near The peninsula extends seaward to within 60 km of the Middle America trench and
8 and 16 s periods that arise when storm-generated ocean gravity waves are has experienced 4 large earthquakes of ˜Mw 7.5-7.7 since 1853 at approximately a
converted to seismic energy, predominantly as Rayleigh waves. Expanding on an 50 year interval. A long-term network of broadband seismic and high rate geodetic
earlier study of global microseism trends (Aster et al., 2010), we analyze up- instruments captured the most recent of these events, the 05 September 2012
to-date multi-decadal seismic data from global stations associated with several Mw 7.6 event. Previous studies have documented multiple shallow slow slip events
seismographic networks to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of the global (SSEs) at ˜2 year intervals replete with abundant tectonic tremor. More recently,
microseism over the past >20 years. Ground motion power spectral density (PSD) very-low-frequency (vlf) earthquakes have also been documented, though the
is calculated to produce a database of PSD statistics at higher spectral resolution location quality of both the tremor and vlf earthquakes embedded within it were
than attained in prior studies. Isolating power in the primary and secondary poor. In this study, we identify high quality templates and perform a matched filter
microseism bands enables regional characterization of spatially-integrated trends technique to identify repeating vlf events over multiple SSE episodes. These events
in wave states corresponding to both modes of microseism excitation. In addition, show remarkable similarity of waveforms, leading us to conclude that discrete
specific extreme storm events are detected and catalogued to assess changes in the regions are consistently reactivated during subsequent SSE episodes. Waveform
location and frequency of oceanic storm activity. The results of these analyses modeling indicates vlf events have long durations (15 – 30 seconds), moment
require interpretation within the context of recognized modes of atmospheric centroids that locate very close to the trench, and moment magnitudes greater than
variability (e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Annular Mode 3.0. Moment tensor solutions are primarily shallow dip slip tensional events with
(SAM)) that impact storm statistics and tracks. In preliminary analysis, we note a northwest to west trending strikes that are consistent with the trench geometry.
number of statistically significant increasing trends in both raw microseism power Variance reductions of our best solutions are on the order ˜60%. However, due
and storm activity occurring at multiple stations in the Northwest Atlantic and to long periods and low signal to noise, even the best-recorded events can have
Southeast Pacific, suggestive of positive trends in wave heights and storminess. significant non-double couple components. We explore the likelihood that these
Additionally, we observe especially strong increases in microseism activity off the tensional vlf events result from static stress changes imposed on the upper plate by
Antarctic Peninsula, including monthly fluctuations that are strongly correlated slow slip on the plate interface.
with local anomalies in sea ice extent. Reductions in sea ice concentration and
extent appear to correlate with recent strengthening of the SAM. Such trends in
A Multi-Method Systematic Search for Non-Volcanic Tremor near the San
wave activity have the potential to significantly influence coastal environments and Jacinto Fault
cryospheric stability, particularly under rising global sea levels. HUTCHISON, A. A., University of California, Riverside, CA, ahutc002@
ucr.edu; GHOSH, A., University of California, Riverside, CA, aghosh.
Seismic Unrest At the Chiles – Cerro Negro Volcanic Complex, Ecuador earth@gmail.com
HERNANDEZ, S., Instituto Geofisico, Quito, Ecuador, shernandez@
igepn.edu.ec; RUIZ, M., Instituto Geofisico, Quito, Ecuador, mruiz@ We have used three techniques to detect and locate non-volcanic tremor (NVT)
igepn.edu.ec; SEGOVIA, M., Instituto Geofisico, Quito, Ecuador, msegovia@ candidates in two distinct areas near the San Jacinto Fault. A detailed visual
igepn.edu.ec; VIRACUCHA, E., Instituto Geofisico, Quito, Ecuador, inspection of seismic array data from the MAOTECRA network, in a frequency
gviracucha@igepn.edu.ec bandwidth of 1-8 Hz, revealed a preliminary set of NVT candidates. Most of
the candidate windows identified in visual inspection lasted for ˜100-400s and
The Chiles-Cerro Negro Volcanic complex consists of two stratovolcanoes consisted of multiple instances of emergent waveforms. We carried out several
straddling the Ecuador-Colombia international border and has shown a tests in different frequency bands in order to rule out alternative energy sources,
remarkable amount of deformation and seismic activity. The largest and most such as local, regional, and teleseismic events, train and other anthropogenic
recent swarm began approximately September 29, 2014 and has experienced a noise. Utilizing the same array data that spans from March to July, 2011, we
flurry of microseismicity in excess of ˜1000 events daily. The Instituto Geofisico, also applied a multi beam-backprojection algorithm (Ghosh et al., 2009) in
Ecuador and the Observatorio Vulcanologico y Sismologico de Pasto, Colombia order to detect additional tremor candidates and confirm the NVT candidates
jointly monitor this increased seismic activity. Utilizing data from this network, previously identified through the visual inspection. Beamforming from a single
preliminary epicenters of seismic events with magnitudes Ml>2.0 locate in an area array can provide locations of the signal’s source in the slowness space, which can
1-4 km south-southwest of the Chiles crater. Fifteen events have magnitudes larger provide azimuth and give a general sense of depth. The beams showed azimuthal
than 4.0 including an event that occurred on October 20, 2014. This event, of convergence from multiple arrays, indicating two discrete locations for NVT –
magnitude 5.7, was modeled to have an oblique (strike-slip, with some thrusting) one to the south of the Anza Gap and the other from the junction of the San
moment tensor. Waveforms and spectral patterns define these events as primarily Jacinto and San Andreas faults, the latter of which corresponds with the triggered
hybrid and volcano-tectonic. However, events with moderate magnitude (above tremor locations identified by Wang et al., 2013 during the passage of seismic waves
3.0) contain pronounced very-long-period components. In this study, we perform from the 2002 Mw 7.9 Denali earthquake. The beams in our NVT candidate
a systematic analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution of elevated seismicity leading catalog have a low slowness, implying a deep source, eliminating the possibility
up to the 20 October event. A double-difference algorithm is applied to P-wave of surface noise, such as wind farms or trains. Due to the elusive nature of
phase arrival data from events initially located within 15 km of the Chiles crater. tremor, we supplement our findings with an envelope cross correlation (ECC)
We pay particular attention to the magnitude and depth evolution of these events. technique, using a station from each MAOTECRA array, and stations from the
Preliminary results indicate a slight shoaling of volcano-tectonic seismicity with CalTech, Anza, and EarthScope borehole networks. We plan to continue our
staccato-like repeating events; template matching also reduced our magnitude of application of ECC over a broader time period in order to detect additional tremor
completeness down by two orders of magnitude. Finally, with improved locations, candidates.

on 09 October 2018
Challenges Detecting Ambient Tectonic Tremors in Southern California Identifying Episodic Tremor and Slip in the Pacific Northwest from PBO GPS
BROWN, J. R., James Madison University, , jrbrown5@gmail.com and Strainmeter Time Series
PUSKAS, C. M., UNAVCO, Boulder, CO, puskas@unavco.org;
In every tectonic setting where it is observed, tremor proves difficult to detect due HODGKINSON, K. M., UNAVCO, Socorro, NM, hodgkinson@unavco.org;
to its long durations and low amplitudes close to the noise band. This is particularly MELBOURNE, T., Central Washington University, Ellensburg, WA, tim@
true in southern California where cultural noise sources are both spatially and Geology.cwu.EDU; PHILLIPS, D. A., UNAVCO, Boulder, CO, dap@
temporally pervasive. Ambient tectonic tremor in circum-Pacific subduction zones unavco.org; MEERTENS, C. M., UNAVCO, Boulder, CO, meertens@
is shown to consist of repeating low-frequency earthquakes and locate at the deep unavco.org
extent of the primary seismogenic zone in a region downdip of historical M 8+
earthquakes. In the strike-slip settings, families of deep ambient tremors near Episodic tremor and slip (ETS) events occurring over days to weeks were first
the Parkfield-Cholame segment of the San Andreas fault are demonstrated to identified from permanent GPS stations in Vancouver Island and northwest
track deep fault slip there. Whether ambient tremor occurs in a similar fashion Washington in 2001, and are now studied with a combination of broadband
in southern California remains unclear. Running autocorrelation and matched- seismometers, GPS, and borehole strainmeters (BSMs). Because source depth lies
filter techniques are successfully used elsewhere to detect and locate tremor/low- under land rather than ocean, the Pacific Northwest is a premier location to
frequency earthquakes. I scan continuous seismic recordings of the Southern study ETS. The Vancouver region is most intensely studied, but ETS has been
California Seismic network near the San Jacinto fault from 2008-2012 to detect observed all along the Cascadia subduction zone. Since 2004, the Plate Boundary
tremor signals and subsequently locate it. I target this area on account of the Observatory (PBO) has installed over 300 GPS stations in the Pacific Northwest, as
abundance of seismic stations including borehole stations. well as ˜34 BSMs. All data from these instruments are freely available for download
to the geoscience community. In this presentation we will summarize our results
of a search for ETS events in the PBO data sets. We focus on the PBO-generated
Quantify Slow-Slip and Tremor in Parkfield, CA
daily GPS time series to identify offsets from ETS events. Time series are detrended
DELBRIDGE, B., University of California, Berkeley, CA, delbridge@
and filtered to remove tectonic and seasonal signals. Offsets from earthquakes and
berkeley.edu; BÜRGMANN, R., University of California, Berkeley, CA,
equipment changes are unrelated to ETS and removed, as is post-seismic decay
burgmann@seismo.berkeley.edu; NADEAU, R. M., University of California,
where applicable. The residuals after cleaning clearly show periodic offsets that
Berkeley, CA, nadeau@seismo.berkeley.edu
we attribute to ETS. Most offsets are small, <4 mm, and are emergent from the
It has been hypothesized that quasi-periodic slip on the deep extent of the San background noise, making it difficult to pinpoint start and end times from the
Andreas Fault (SAF) accompany deep tremor and low frequency earthquakes GPS time series alone. Several potential ETS examples are chosen from the GPS
(LFEs) near Parfiield, CA. Geodetic data document that slow slip accompanies data and compared with the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network tremor catalog
tremor in the Cascadia and other subduction zones,however there has not been and BSM data to confirm slow slip. Smoothing techniques are tried to see if event
an observation of deformation associated with the observed tremor in a transform times can be better constrained. Because of the small displacements, ETS is more
fault setting such as the SAF, despite the ubiquitous presence of tremor and easily identified from the GPS after the event is completed, while seismic and BSM
LFEs. The signal is likely too small to be detectable by GPS, and previous studies data are better for an event in progress. We examine slip episodes to determine
attempting to use borehole strainmeters in Parkfield have failed to detect any variations in frequency, magnitude, deformation patterns, and the ability of GPS
observable strain associated with tremor swarms triggered by passing surface waves and BSM instruments to detect deformation as a function of distance from tremor
and place an upper limit on the surface strain of 5 nanometers [Smith 2009]. epicenters.
We explore/examine strain records associated with newly identified large tremor
swarms that are in inferred to be slow slip events with moment magnitudes A Study of Low Frequency Earthquake Magnitudes in Northern Cascadia
exceeding Mw 5. These slow slip events have durations of approximately 10 days, BOSTOCK, M. G., The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada,
and the deformation is far below the detection level of GPS. In this study we utilize bostock@eos.ubc.ca; THOMAS, A. M., Stanford University, Stanford, CA
data from long-baseline laser strainmeters (LSM) which are particularly well suited
to observe these signals„ due to the relatively low detection level at periods of We employ a suite of low-frequency-earthquake (LFE) templates representing
10ˆ5 to 10ˆ6 seconds [Agnew, 2003]. We find that while their magnitudes appear spatially distinct tremor sources on or near the plate boundary below southern
to be over estimated by 150%, we do see observable surface strain accompanying Vancouver Island to examine LFE magnitudes. Each template is assembled from
large tremor burst, suggesting that we do have slow slip events accompanying 1000’s of individual LFEs, representing a total of over 200,000 independent
large tremor bursts on the deep extent of the SAF. Results suggest that average detections from major episodic-tremor-and-slip (ETS) events between 2003-2013.
surface strains associated with individual events are on the order of ˜1 to ˜3 Template waveforms exhibit clearly defined pulses associated with direct P- and
nanometer. S-arrivals at short epicentral distances. The high spatio-temporal precision of
template match-filtered detections enables precise alignment of individual LFE
detections and analysis of LFE amplitudes. Upon correction for geometrical
Scaling Relation in Slip Deficit During Interseismic Period from Numerical spreading, attenuation, free-surface magnification and radiation pattern, we solve
Simulations a large, sparse linear system of equations for path correction factors (that account
AOCHI, H., BRGM, Orléans, France, h.aochi@brgm.fr; IDE, S., The University for unmodelled structure) and LFE magnitudes for all detections corresponding
of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, ide@eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp to a single ETS event. After identification and removal of several channel outliers
(due presumably to instrument changes or calibration errors), path corrections
Scaling relation of “standard” earthquakes can be explained by the hierachical
demonstrate high consistency across inversions for different ETS episodes.
property and structure in fracture energy during the coseismic weakening process
Simultaneous inversion for magnitudes in all episodes yields a magnitude catalogue
from the mechanical point of view (e.g. Aochi and Ide, GRL, 2004; Ide and Aochi,
for all detections. The spatio-temporal distribution of magnitudes indicates that
JGR, 2005). Namely it is important that the slip weakening distance in friction
typically half the total moment release occurs within the first 12-24 hours of
law is proportional to the heterogeneity (patch) size. Now we are interested in the
LFE activity when tidal sensitity is reported as low. The remainder is released in
scaling of slow or aseismic slip during interseismic hardening process. According
bursts over several days, particularly as spatially extensive RTRs, during which tidal
to the analogy from our previous studies, we consider patches of different sizes,
sensitivity is high and transitions from shear stress-rate to shear stress dependent.
attributed particular frictional parameters. For the simplicity, we suppose a simple
RTR’s are characterized by large magnitude LFEs, and are most strongly expressed
equation, T (w) = T (w/wc)g exp(1 − (w/wc)g ), where shear friction T is
in the updip portions of the ETS transition zone and less organized at downdip
a function of cumulative slip w and with a factor g (>0), a constant T’ and
levels.
characteristic length wc. We then consider a constant loading rate surrounding
the model area. Stress accumulation on patches prior to the weakening process
depends on the patch size, and slip deficit is cumulated the most when stress is Source Mechanism and Tsunami Generation of the 2013 Balochistan
at peak. The time to the maximum slip deficit and the slip deficit amount are Earthquake
briefly proportional to the patch size, regardless if wc is scale-dependent or not. PARAMESWARAN, R. M., Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India,
The numerical simulations suggest that slip deficit rate is size-invariant under the revathyparameswaran@ceas.iisc.ernet.in; RAJENDRAN, K., Indian Institute
same loading if wc is proportional to the patch size and g = 1. Furthermore if wc is of Science, Bangalore, India, kusala@ceas.iisc.ernet.in
scale-dependent and g = 2, the slip deficit rate is inversely related to the patch size.
Namely, slip deficit rate is smaller for a large patch. In other words, large parches Text of the Abstract: The 2013, Mw 7.8 Balochistan earthquake ˜200 km
always slip slowly, accumulating only a part of plate motion. So-called background inland of the Makran trench is considered quite unusual because of its strike-slip
stable slip region can be substituted by an extremely large patch, which may include faulting mechanism and the tsunami that washed the shores of Arabian Sea. W-
small patches rupturing repeatedly (repeating earthquakes). phase analysis (Jolivet et.al., 2014) and Landsat-8 imaging (Avouac et.al., 2014)

on 09 October 2018
suggest purely left-lateral strike-slip mechanism, but they do not comment on the Dynamic Triggering in Yunnan Following the 2012 Indian Ocean Earthquake
mechanism of tsunami generation. Back projection of tsunami waves (Heidarzadeh LI, L., Institute of Geophysics, Beijing, China, sophia.lilu1988@gmail.com;
and Satake, 2014; Hoffmann et.al., 2014) suggest that submarine slide sources near PENG, Z., Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, zpeng.
Jiwani, ˜60-70km off the Jiwani coast. It is intriguing that the Harvard CMT seismo@gmail.com; WANG, B., Institute of Geophysics , Beijing, China,
solution shows an oblique component in the overall left-lateral focal mechanism. wangbs@cea-igp.ac.cn; WU, J., Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Beijing,
The only historically documented previous tsunami from this subduction zone China, xianhua123@yahoo.com
occurred in 1945 and it was also credited to submarine slide. If indeed the Makran
wedge, the largest of world’s accretionary prisms, deforms internally in response to Large earthquakes generate transient stress changes during passing seismic waves
inland earthquakes leading to tsunamis, its hazard potential needs a re-evaluation. and can dynamically trigger seismicity in long-range distances. Dynamic triggering
We modeled the source for the 2013 earthquake using the Teleseismic Body-Wave could help to improve our understanding of underlying mechanisms of earthquake
Inversion program (Kikuchi and Kanamori, 2003), to see if there are any oblique initiation and interaction, which are essential for earthquake forecasting and
components, especially on the sub-events that propagated to the outer wedge. Our hazard mitigation. The 2012/04/11 Mw8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake was the
results suggest that a nominal thrust component of slip that propagated to the largest strike-slip event ever recorded. The mainshock and its 8.2 aftershock
outer aseismic wedge must have led to significant internal deformation, leading instantaneously triggered deep tectonic tremor and shallow microearthquakes
to submarine-slide on the ocean floor and the ensuing tsunami. The 2013 event around the world, as well as a global increase of magnitude greater than 5.5 in the
is a reminder of the underestimated tsunami threat of the Makran subduction following week. Here we focus on seismicity changes in the Yunnan Province in
zone. References: [1] Avouac, J.-P., et. al., (2014), Earth Planet Sci. Lett.,391, Southwest China, which is a seismically active region, and is spatially close to the
128-134. [2] Kikuchi, M., and H. Kanamori (2003), http://www. eri. u-tokyo. Indian Ocean mainshock. We first examine published earthquake catalogs in this
ac.jp/ETAL/KIKUCHI. [3] Jolivet, R., et. al., (2014), Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., region, but fail to identify any obvious changes in seismicity (with magnitude of
104(2), 1020-1030. [4] Heidarzadeh, M., and K. Satake (2014), Geophys. J. Int., completeness = 1.8) within 40 days around the Indian Ocean mainshock. Then
199 (2), 752-766. [5] Hoffmann, G., et. al., (2014), Geology, 42, pp. 883&#8211 we examine continuous waveforms recorded by both permanent regional seismic
network as well as the ˜300 temporary stations of ChinArray that were deployed in
Yunnan during the study period. As was done before, we apply a band-pass-filter of
5-15 Hz to the raw data, and generate spetrograms to identify potential increases
of high-frequency signals during and immediately following the large-amplitude
The Where, When and Why of Uncharacteristic surface waves of the mainshock and the M8.2 aftershock. So far we do not find
Earthquakes any obvious case of dynamic triggering during the Indian Ocean event from visual
Poster Session · Wednesday · 22 April · Exhibit Hall A inspection. This is in marked contrast with the period during the 2004 Mw9.1
Sumatra earthquake, when clear dynamic triggering of seismicity has been found
in Yunnan. Our next step is to use an automatic method to compute statistical
Triggered Seismicity due to Barometric Pressure Changes parameters, confirm the existence (or lack of) of dynamic triggering during the
WEST, J. D., Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, john.d.west@asu.edu; Indian Ocean, as well as other recent large earthquakes in this region.
GARNERO, E. J., Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, garnero@asu.edu;
SHIRZAEI, M., Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, shirzaei@asu.edu
Self-Sustained Dynamic Triggering of Small Local Earthquakes in the
While it is well known that seismic activity can be dynamically triggered due Himalayas
to kiloPascal (kPa) stresses induced by, for example, the passage of surface wave MENDOZA, M. M., University of California, Riverside, CA, mmend028@
trains from remote earthquakes, earthquake triggering from other sources of ucr.edu; GHOSH, A., University of California, Riverside, CA, aghosh.
short-term stress change is less well studied. Here we present preliminary results earth@gmail.com; RAI, S. S., Indian Institute of Science Education and Research,
showing a correlation between reductions in atmospheric barometric pressure Pune, India, shyamsrai@iiserpune.ac.in
and seismic activity. Weather-related changes in barometric pressure can change
surface loading of the Earth by single-to-tens of kPa over timescales of hours-to- Due to sparse seismic networks in Himalaya, knowledge of the earthquake
days. We show that pressure drops at this level are accompanied by an increase distribution and stress dynamics at this convergent plate boundary is limited and
in the number of earthquakes in some geographical areas; conversely, periods inadequate to assess seismic hazards in this area with reasonable confidence. A
with increasing atmospheric pressure possess fewer earthquakes on average. This greater understanding of the faults and earthquake activity in the Himalayas would
pressure-dependent seismicity differs across multiple geographic regions, with a help to outline its current state in the earthquake cycle and reliably estimate the
number of possible explanations, including differing quality and completeness of associated seismic hazards. We analyze seismic data from a dense seismic network
regional earthquake catalogs, differing tectonic stress regimes, as well as possible that operated from 2005 to 2012 (Mahesh et al., 2013) in the central Himalayas.
differences in hydrological factors relating to pore pressure variability from region We find that local earthquakes are dynamically triggered by a teleseismic (5,450
to region. km) event, specifically, the M7.7 2006 Pangandaran earthquake. We compare
earthquake activities a few days before to a few days after the arrival of the
teleseismic waves, and observe striking changes with respect to the background
Observations of Temporal Variations in Seismicity and Crustal Properties
seismicity rate. We find that the number of local earthquakes dramatically
DELOREY, A. A., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM,
increased (by about 500%) during the passage of the teleseismic waves. The elevated
andrew.a.delorey@gmail.com; JOHNSON, P. A., Los Alamos National
activity of local small earthquake persists days after the passage of the teleseismic
Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, paj@lanl.gov
waves. This not only shows that small earthquakes are dynamically triggered in the
The Earth’s crust is a dynamic system and its stress state and elastic properties Himalayas, but are curiously self-sustained even after the passage of the teleseismic
are continuously changing due to perturbations acting on it over many different wave train has passed. We plan to analyze a longer time window around the
spatial and temporal scales. Understanding stress state and elastic properties are teleseismic event, and detect and locate local earthquakes. Other teleseismic events
important to seismic hazards, earthquake physics, and resource extraction and can in the dataset exhibiting similar behavior will be investigated as well. As previous
be observed indirectly through seismicity, seismic velocities, and strain. Changes studies have shown, dynamic triggering can be a catalyst for additional brittle
in seismicity, seismic velocities, and strain can often be observed after a local failures (Gomberg and Johnson, 2005), and provide valuable information on the
earthquake, or due to long-term tectonic loading. However, changes can occur in fault properties. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate dynamic triggering in the
the crust in the absence of strong shaking and on time scales much shorter than Himalayas and in turn understand the effects of fault-stress loading.
those expected from far-field tectonic loading. Observing these less obvious changes
provides insight on the earthquake cycle, the current state of stress, and the elastic
properties of the crust. We have previously shown that dynamic stresses produced Teleseismic Double-Difference Relocation of the 2012 Indian Ocean
by the 2012 M8.6 East Indian Ocean earthquake triggered bursts of shallow normal Intraplate Earthquake Sequence
faulting events in the fore arc of Japan in the Tohoku aftershock region and that KWONG, K. B., Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX, kkwong@
this burst of seismicity is associated with an increase in seismic velocities onshore. mail.smu.edu; DESHON, H. R., Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX,
We present evidence that increased seismic velocities are associated with changes in hdeshon@mail.smu.edu; THURBER, C. H., University of Wisconsin, Madison,
the strain field produced by normal faulting earthquakes. This observation allows WI, clifft@geology.wisc.edu; SAUL, J., GFZ German Research Centre for
us to quantify the non-linear properties of the upper crust in Japan and better Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany, saul@gfz-potsdam.de
understand the interconnectedness of the seismic cycle of the megathrust with
that of faults in the fore arc, which has applications for other similar tectonic The complex and diffuse intraplate deformation within the Indo-Australian plate
environments as well. enables the presence of left-lateral strike-slip earthquakes on predominately NNE-

on 09 October 2018
SSW trending fracture zones in the northeastern Indian-Ocean. On April 11, Continuing Geophysical Analysis of Seismically Active Structures in the
2012, two unusually large strike-slip earthquakes occurred in this region that Matanuska-Susitna Valley Region near Anchorage, Alaska
resulted in an Mw 8.7 mainshock and an Mw 8.2 aftershock. Back-projection GLOVER, C. O., University of Texas, El Paso, Texas USA,
results and aftershock locations reveal that the mainshock rupture occurred on a codesvoignes@miners.utep.edu; DOSER, D. I., University of Texas, El
network of conjugate faults. The two great earthquakes have deep centroid depths Paso, Texas USA, doser@utep.edu; SCHINAGEL, S. M., University of Texas, El
(˜40 - 50 km) that imply a deep rupture down to the upper mantle. We present Paso, Texas USA, smschinagel@miners.utep.edu
improved relative relocations of the mainshock and aftershock hypocenters in
order to constrain the relationship of the aftershock seismicity to the coseismic The Matanuska-Susitna (Mat-Su) Valley region of south-central Alaska contains
slip area and to better characterize the geometry of the intraplate faults. The the Castle Mountain Fault (CMF), as well as several other buried faults/folds
revised set of hypocenters is calculated by teleseismic double-difference relocation that appear to be seismically active. This region of Alaska is swampy and covered
(teleTomoDD) using catalog and cross-correlation derived differential times of with dense vegetation, making it difficult to find geological evidence of recent
P, pP, pwP and S phases and a realistic 3-D velocity model developed for the active structures besides the Castle Mountain fault. The eastern segment of the
Sunda subduction system. We use phase data combined from the USGS NEIC CMF was the site of the magnitude 5.7 Sutton earthquake in 1984, but shows
catalog (622 events), the GFZ Potsdam catalog (282 events) and the reviewed no evidence of surficial Holocene movement. In contrast, the western segment
ISC bulletin (951 events). Depth phases (pP, pwP) were obtained from the of the fault is not seismically active, although Holocene surface offsets show it is
reviewed ISC bulletin and GFZ Potsdam catalog; these phases are important for capable of producing large magnitude earthquakes (˜6-7.0). Population in the Mat-
better constraints on focal depths. The relocated epicenters show systematic shifts Su Valley has grown as space within the city limits of Anchorage, Alaska (<40km),
towards the trench, which can be attributed to the use of a 3-D velocity model that is limited. This makes it important to determine the location and characteristics
includes a fast subducting slab. As previously reported with the GFZ catalog and of seismically active features (including the CMF) that could pose hazards to the
the reviewed ISC bulletin, relocated aftershocks fall within two depth ranges: 5-15 growing community. We use new gravity data (collected by the University of
km and ˜30 km. Improved clustering of epicenters is observed and is compared to Texas at El Paso between 2009 and 2013) in conjunction with existing gravity
short-period back-projection images to illuminate and infer fault planes. and aeromagnetic data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey to help determine
subsurface geologic structures that may control recent seismicity. We also hope
to relate the crustal seismicity and structure to deeper features that result from
Interseismic Coupling on the Main Himalayan Thrust, Implications for the subduction of the Pacific plate under the Yakutat and North American plates
Extreme Earthquakes within this region.
STEVENS, V. L., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, vstevens@
caltech.edu; AVOUAC, J. P. H., Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK,
jpha2@cam.ac.uk The Yakutat Plate and Its Southcentral Alaska Megathrust Earthquakes
REEDER, J. W., Terra International, Venice, Italy, jwreeder@
We expand on the work of Ader et al. (2012) using GPS, levelling data, InSAR stanfordalumni.org
and microseismicity to determine the pattern of coupling on the Main Himalayan
Thrust along the entire range front. We show that the convergence velocities are YAK is a large part of the Yakutat Plate that is entirely beneath the North
perpendicular to the curvature of the arc, and decrease to the west and increase American Plate (NA) as well as above the Pacific Plate (PAC). YAK extends 100
towards the east. Motion in the east is complicated due to intraplate deformation km N of Denali (Mt. McKinley), 700 km SW to the Katmai volcanic region of
of India which we account for using a block model. We find that the fault is fully N Alaska Peninsula, and 400 km SE to the Prince William Sound (PWS). The E
locked along its complete length, with no resolvable creeping patches in the 0- part of YAK is spreading from the Copper River valley and the Wrangell volcanic
20km seismogenic depth range. We estimate the deficit of seismic moment which belt, and the W part is subducting WSW into the Cook Inlet and Denali part of
accumulates in the interseismic period and investigate how this moment could the Aleutian subduction zone (Reeder, SSA, 2014). YAK is sliced into a number
be released. Analysing the current seismic catalogue of this region, we find that a of fragments called “slices” that have WSW strike-slip fault boundaries on both
significant proportion of the moment building up has not been released seismically. sides; different from “slivers.” The other part of the Yakutat Plate (yak) has been
We suggest various reasons for this and discuss possible solutions to close the slip called the Yakutat microplate (terrane, block) and extends 700 km from PWS to
budget. We go on to use dynamic modelling to study the statistics of large and small SE Alaska. The SE part of yak is moving NNW with PAC and moving more slowly
earthquakes. This study places constraints on the frequency-magnitude of the most WSW with NA (Elliot et al., 2010). Yet the NW part of yak is colliding with YAK
extreme events which could occur in the Himalaya. and moving just WSW (Parkin, 1966). The eastern part of the 27 March 1964
megathrust earthquake occurred principally as relative movement NNW of the
PAC under the YAK & yak in the PWS. The E part of the earthquake was also
Seismic Intensity Maps for Scenario Events on the Eastern Segments of North caused by the yak moving WSW along an N-S oriented megathrust onto the PAC
Anatolian Fault Zone of Turkey based on Simulated Ground Motion Data (Berg, 1965). In addition, WSW movement of YAK with respect to NA occurred
KARIM ZADEH NAGHSHINEH, S., Middle East Technical University, in PWS, which stopped in W PWS. Why? Apparently the impact of yak with YAK
Ankara, Turkey, shaghayegh.karimzadehnaghshineh@metu.edu.tr; ASKAN, has disrupted this part of the NA to YAK megathrust. As NNW and WSW folding
A., Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, aaskan@metu.edu.tr; occurs beyond W PWS in the NA, the NA will decouple from the YAK, allowing
BILAL, M., Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, mst.bilal@ the YAK to complete its WSW movement relative to NA. This more “continental”
gmail.com megathrust event would occur in about 330 years as based on paleosoil studies of
Seismic intensity maps represent the effects of an earthquake on the Earth’s surface the Knik Arm tidal flats (Reeder, AGU, 2012 & 2013). This interesting WSW
and generally contribute in rapid assessment in the aftermath of earthquakes. movement of the YAK actually reflects movement of the NA (Perttu et al., JGR,
Digital intensity maps employ correlations between felt intensity and peak ground 2014) and represents an important tectonic process for transporting mass to the
motion values. The purpose of this study is to present spatial distribution of WSW within a region of very high tectonic mass influx from the SSE by PAC.
macroseismic intensities in terms of modified Mercalli (MMI) scale, across the
North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in Turkey. In comparison to the western Seismicity, Strain and Hazards at the Mendocino Triple Junction, Northern
segments of NAFZ, eastern parts have been less studied and also have sparse California
ground motion networks. Thus, in this study, MMI distributions of potential MCPHERSON, B. C., Humboldt State University, Arcata, CA,
scenario events are studied on the eastern segments of NAFZ through ground bob.mcpherson@humboldt.edu; SMITH, S. W., University of Washington,
motion simulations. In particular, the study region is considered to be Erzincan Seattle, WA, swsmith@nwlink.com; WILLIAMS, T. B., Humbodlt State
which is a small city in eastern of Turkey, located in the conjunction of three University, Arcata, CA, todd.brian.williams@gmail.com; PRYOR, I., Stillwater
active faults: North Anatolian, North East Anatolian and East Anatolian Fault Sciences, Arcata, CA, ian@stillwatersci.com; PATTON, J. R., Humboldt
Zones. Erzincan city center is in a pull-apart basin underlain by soft sediments State University, Arcata CA, jpatton@coas.oregonstate.edu; ROLLINS, J. C.,
which considerably amplify the ground motions. Combination of the tectonic and California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, john.c.rollins@gmail.com;
geological settings of the area have resulted in catastrophic events such as the 27 HEMPHILL-HALEY, M., Humboldt State University, Arcata, CA,
December 1939 (Ms=8.0) and the 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6) earthquakes leading mark@humboldt.edu; CARVER, G., Humboldt State University, Arcata,
to major losses. In this study, initially ground motion simulations for a set of CA, cgeol@acsalaska.net
scenario events as well as the 1992 Erzincan earthquake (Mw=6.6) are performed.
Then, to assess the corresponding MMI values, recently-derived local relationships Using well located intraplate earthquakes from 1974-2014, as well as focal
between MMI and PGA as well as PGV are employed. The final results are mechanisms and GPS response to Gorda Plate earthquakes, we infer the extent of
expressed in the form of digital intensity maps for the 1992 event and the scenario the locked zone of the Southern Cascadia subduction zone in Northern California.
earthquakes. The locked zone extends eastward from the trench down to depths of about

on 09 October 2018
35km, a width of approximately 90 km. This puts the cities of Arcata, Eureka, may be long-term cyclic repetition of large turbidites similar in size to the 2004
Ferndale and Fortuna directly over this seismic hazard, making these communities seismoturbidite. Using our correlations for the stratigraphic history spanning
the closest to any (locked) subduction zone in the world. Using the aforementioned the last 6.5 ka, we estimate recurrence of earthquakes capable of leaving a
information, we revisit past interpretations of the stratigraphy found in Humboldt turbidite record in the region of the 2004 earthquake to be 260 ± 160 years.
Bay and how it relates to southern Cascadia events and postulate how the strain is Down-core variations of interseismic intervals show similar trends between cores,
presently accumulating in this region. supporting our correlations. Recurrence of trans-oceanic paleotsunami records in
the northern Indian Ocean is between 280 and 320 years, consistent with our
Mismatch Between Interseismic Ground Deformation and estimate, suggesting either coincidence, or similar sensitivity between tsunami and
Paleoseismic/Paleogeodetic Observations, Humboldt Bay, Northern seismoturbidite preservation.
California, Cascadia Subduction Zone
PATTON, J. R., Humboldt State University, Arcata, CA, jason.patton@ Dynamically Triggered Earthquakes and Tremor: A Look at Western North
humboldt.edu; LEROY, T. H., Pacific Watershed Associates, McKinleyville, CA, America Using Two Recent Large Magnitude Events
toml@pacificwatershed.com; WILLIAMS, T. B., Cascadia GeoSciences, Bayside, HATCH, R. L., Cal Poly, Pomona, CA, rlhatch@csupomona.edu; POLET, J.,
CA, todd.brian.williams@gmail.com; MCPHERSON, R. C., Humboldt State Cal Poly , Pomona, CA, jpolet@csupomona.edu
University, Arcata, CA, Robert.McPherson@humboldt.edu; ANDERSON, Recent studies indicate that the passage of seismic waves from large earthquakes
J. K., Northern Hydrology and Engineering, McKinleyville, CA, jeff@ may trigger small earthquakes and tremor at regional distances. These smaller
northernhydrology.com; BURGETTE, R., New Mexico State University, events can be detected by applying a high-pass filter to seismograms to remove
Las Cruces, NM, burgette@nmsu.edu; HEMPHILL-HALEY, M., Humboldt the significantly larger ground motions from the distant earthquake. We will
State University, Arcata, CA, mark.hemphill-haley@humboldt.edu; WELDON, present the results of the analysis of waveform data from nearly 1400 seismometers
R., University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, ray@uoregon.edu; CARVER, G.C., throughout California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Idaho,
Humboldt State University, Arcata, CA, egeol@acsalaska.net; KELSEY, H M, Wyoming, and Canada as well as several offshore stations to identify triggering
Humboldt State University, Arcata, CA, hmk1@humboldt.edu from the magnitude 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah 2010 earthquake and the magnitude
The interseismic tectonic deformation along the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) 6.8 Northern California 2014 earthquake, just north of the Mendocino Triple
contributes to the observed local sea level in northern California. We utilize Junction. In the case of the California earthquake, 52 stations showed evidence of
tide gage, benchmark level, and Global Positioning System (GPS) observations triggered tremor and 74 stations showed evidence for local triggered earthquakes.
to evaluate the tectonic vertical land motion. We use water level observations Twenty-eight percent of the stations located inside geothermal (as defined by
in Humboldt Bay (North Spit, NS; Mad River Slough, MRS; Samoa SO; Fields the USGS Geothermal Favorability Map) and volcanic areas showed evidence
Landing, FL; Hookton Slough, HS) as collected by the National Oceanic and of triggering. Only sixteen percent of the stations located outside of these
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA 1977-1987), US Army Corps of Engineers areas showed evidence of triggering. For the El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake,
San Francisco Office (USACE: TOWILL; 2010), and Cascadia GeoSciences and waveforms from 88 stations indicated triggered tremor and waveforms from 49
Northern Hydrology Engineering (CG, NHE; 2008, 2012-13) to evaluate local stations were identified as showing triggered local earthquakes. For this event, the
trends in sea level compared to Crescent City, the longest operating tide gage in relative percentages of stations within and outside of geothermal areas indicating
the region. We also compile first order leveling data collected by the National triggering are 39% versus 27%. To explore the possible causes of this triggering,
Geodetic Survey (NGS) to determine vertical land motion rates for the second we plan to investigate relationships between triggered seismicity and/or tremor
half of the twentieth century (e.g. Burgette et al., 2012). Finally, we incorporate and the following factors: ground motion amplitude, distance to nearby faults
GPS observations of vertical land motion for the past decade (e.g. Williams et al., and the wave-type during which triggering occurs, as well as its frequency. We
2006). Land subsidence in and around Humboldt Bay, California contributes to will also perform a more in-depth analysis for several specific regions, including
sea-level rise up to 2-3 times greater than anywhere else in California. GPS data and Yellowstone, other geothermal fields (Coso, Geysers), the San Jacinto Fault
highway level surveys confirm that land is subsiding in Humboldt Bay, in contrast Zone, the San Andreas Fault Zone and offshore areas that are covered by Ocean
to Crescent City where the land is rising. Based on ˜30 year period, these rates Bottom Seismometers.
of sea-level rise are 5.84 mm/yr at HS, 3.76 at FL, 4.61 at NS, 2.53 at SO, and
3.39 at MRS. Rates of land subsidence are -3.56 mm/yr at HS, -1.48 at FL, -2.33 at Radiated Seismic Energy of the 18 April 2014 Papanoa, Mexico Earthquake
NS, -0.25 at SO, and -1.11 at MRS. Buried marsh horizons have been interpreted (Mw7.2), and its Principal Aftershocks
to be the result of coseismic subsidence during interplate faulting on the CSZ, PÉREZ-CAMPOS, X., Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma
though these horizons are in regions that are currently subsiding. We re-interpret de México, Mexico City, D.F., Mexico, xyoli@geofisica.unam.mx; SINGH, S. K.,
these buried horizons to be the result of a more complex deformational setting Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City,
that includes active faulting in the upper plate as part of the local plate boundary D.F., Mexico, krishnamex@yahoo.com
deformation cycle.
Papanoa earthquake was located NW of the Guerrero seismic gap, in a region
where previous large earthquakes had occurred in 1943 (MS 7.4), 1979 (Mw7.4)
Sedimentary Evidence for the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Subduction Zone and 1985 (Mw7.5). Two moderate earthquakes followed it; the first took place
Earthquake on 8 May (Mw6.5) and the second on 10 May (Mw6.1). These events were located
PATTON, J. R., Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, quakejay@gmail.com; within the seismic gap. Radiated seismic energy, Es, of the mainshock was estimated
GOLDFINGER, C., Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, gold@coas. from regional (3.1E15 J) and teleseismic (8.5E14 J) data independently. Similarly,
oregonstate.edu; DJADJADIHARDJA, Y., Bandan Penghajian Dan Penerapan for the two smaller events, we obtain a difference of 2 to 7 times between estimates,
Teknologi, Jakarta, Indonesia, iyung24@yahoo.com; UDREKH, , Bandan being larger the regional estimation. For the mainshock, the teleseismic source
Penghajian Dan Penerapan Teknologi, Jakarta, Indonesia, udrekh@gmail.com spectrum is depleted at high frequencies with respect to the regional, which lead
to the difference in the estimated Es. The difference due to a strong site effect does
The paleoseismic history of earthquakes along subduction zones is an important seem to be the likely cause. We attempt to isolate other possible causes. We also
tool to evaluate the cyclic hazards that millions of coastal residents are exposed to study smaller aftershocks to analyze patterns of spatial distribution of the radiated
globally. We use litho- and chrono-stratigraphic methods to correlate turbidites seismic energy.
between sediment cores in sedimentologically isolated accretionary prism slope
basins and trench settings. In 12 of 15 cores collected in the region of the Frequency of Plausible, Worst-Case Scenario Earthquakes on the
2004 Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone earthquake, we interpret the uppermost Southernmost San Andreas Fault
turbidite to have been deposited as a result of seismic shaking related to this YULE, D., California State University, Northridge, CA, doug.yule@csun.edu;
earthquake. Measures of relative age (lack of oxidation in the core tops, which SCHARER, K., United State Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA, kscharer@
can take months to a few years) and radiometric age (210Pb and 14C) support usgs.gov; SIEH, K., Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological
our interpretation of the uppermost turbidite. P Sequence (OxCal radiocarbon University, Singapore, Singapore, Sieh@ntu.edu.sg; WOLFF, L., California State
software) age modeling results in an age of -60 ± 10 cal yr BP 1950 (2010 University, Northridge, CA, lisa.ralynn@gmail.com; WITKOSKY, R., Caltech,
± 10 yr AD). These cores clearly show the ubiquitous generation of turbidity Pasadena, CA, ryan.witkosky@gmail.com; MCBURNETT, P., UCLA, Los
currents from this event. The physiographic setting precludes terrestrial or Angeles, CA, pmcburnett@ucla.edu; RAMZAN, S., Macquarie University,
tsunami derived sources. The only remaining regional turbidity current triggers Sydney, Australia, shahidramzan26@gmail.com
being random self-failure and earthquakes. High resolution (˜ 25 cm) CHIRP
subbottom data can resolve some multi-pulse coarse Bouma Tb-Tc beds in the A Mw 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault provided the basis for
˜three meter thick 2004 seismoturbidite. We find further evidence that there the 2008 Great Southern California ShakeOut drill (Jones et al., USGS Open

on 09 October 2018
File Report 2008-1150). This 300-km long scenario event breaks through San depth. We aim to use these data to look for evidence of variable uplift across
Gorgonio Pass, a structurally complex region hypothesized to arrest San Andreas surfaces of different ages that would be highlighted by the lidar and observe
ruptures. Over the last decade our group has trenched three sites in the pass to and quantify any dominant surface morphologies that could indicate uplift.
test the barrier-to-rupture hypothesis. Our results show that most San Andreas Initial remote analysis builds on observations from previous studies and applies
quakes do terminate at the pass margins, yet fault strands within the pass move geomorphic metrics developed in the last decade. For the older portion of the
at an average rate of 5-10 mm/yr and produce infrequent ruptures with large fold west of the largest wind gap containing the California Aqueduct, we used
displacements. The Burro Flats site, located in a marsh at the SE limit of the strike- the normalized channel steepness index to compare the degree of channel incision
slip San Bernardino strand, shows evidence for two distinct types of ruptures. One in drainages of varying size on the forelimb (north facing) and backlimb (south
type includes three unimpressive events in the last 500 yrs that likely record end-of- facing). The channels show strong asymmetry where the backlimb drainages are
rupture quakes or liquefaction events. A second type, the fourth event ˜600 yrs ago, straight, narrow, and have gradual steepness whereas the forelimb drainages are
produced impressive deformation features that include folds, fissures, and pervasive more varied in shape and steepness. Remote morphological mapping for the
faulting. The Millard Canyon and Cabazon trench sites, located 5-10 km to the younger portions of the fold, east of the aqueduct, show variable slope geometries
southeast on oblique-thrust fault strands, both show evidence for three large quakes along the fold axis and the locations of several previously unmapped wind
in the last ˜2500 yrs. A fourth quake at Cabazon >5300 yrs ago follows an ˜1,100 gaps.
yr depositional hiatus. The average recurrence interval at the thrust sites is therefore
˜1000 yrs. The most recent event here occurred ˜600 yrs ago and produced ˜7 m of
fault slip, consistent with a release of stored elastic strain that had accumulated at Analysis of the March 21, 2009 (M=4.8) Bombay Beach Earthquake Swarm
5-10 mm/yr for a millennium or so. Earthquake slip scaling relations suggest that SIMILA, G., Cal. State Univ. , Northridge, CA, gsimila@csun.edu;
this rupture extended for many tens of km in either direction. Though a majority of MCSTROUL, G., Cal. State Univ. , Northridge, CA, captblsisko@gmail.com
San Andreas earthquakes in southern California appear to die out as they approach
San Gorgonio Pass, the events at the thrust sites and the 600-yr old event at the From March 21, 2009 through April 9, 2009, an earthquake swarm occurred
strike-slip site substantiate the plausibility and may record ancient examples of the near Bombay Beach, which is located on the eastern side of the Salton Sea
ShakeOut scenario earthquake. near the southern end of the San Andreas Fault. During this period, over
460 earthquakes were recorded, and the largest of which had a magnitude of
4.8. The M4.8 moment tensor solution showed left-lateral, strike-slip motion
Using B4 Lidar and Crn Age Data to Constrain Slip Rates Along the San with a preferred nodal plane strike of N57E which is consistent with faults
Andreas Fault System At Millard Canyon, San Gorgonio Pass orthogonal to the San Andreas fault in this area. The 2009 swarm events were
DESJARLAIS, I. C., CSUN, Northridge, CA, ian.desjarlais@csun.edu; YULE, relocated using hypoDD and the SCEDC CVM. The seismicity consisted of
J. D., CSUN, Northridge, CA, doug.yule@csun.edu; HEERMANCE, R. V., two swarms, both striking about N57E, with dimensions of 4-6 km in length
CSUN, Northridge, CA and 1 km in width, and the depth range was 2-8 km. The first swarm, to the
northwest with M=4.8, seems to have triggered the second swarm (M=4.0) located
Fault scarps cut a series of Holocene alluvial fan surfaces in Millard Canyon, 4km to the southeast. The b-values were 0.64 and 1.02, respectively. Modeling
within the San Gorgonio Pass (SGP). These fault scarps are likely the result with Coulomb 3.3 for the M=4.8 swarm shows minor stress changes to the
of coseismic slip along the San Andreas Fault system during potentially large southeast towards the second swarm. The two swarms illustrate possible book-
magnitude (Mw7+) earthquakes. Here we provide new ages for Holocene surfaces shelf faulting associated with the extension of the Extra Fault Zone (EFZ) from
Qf2, Qf3, and Qf4. Charcoal fragments beneath Qf2 limits the surface to 1270 the San Jacinto fault to the west of the Salton Sea to the San Andreas fault at
± 80 years before present (ybp) and new 10Be exposure ages from the two older Bombay Beach. In addition, published seismic reflection data in the Salton Sea
Holocene surfaces provide age constraints of 4800 ± 1600 ybp for Qf3 and 6800 area near Bombay Beach show NE trending, near-vertical dipping faults possibly
± 550 ybp for Qf4. These new ages provide limits on the timing of slip through the resulting from a young pull-apart basin from the interaction of the major faults
San Gorgonio Pass. Airborne LiDAR from the B4 dataset was used to identify and here.
measure preserved scarps that cut the terrace surfaces. The northernmost fault (F1)
with an observed northward dip of 45◦ vertically offsets units Qf2 and Qf3 by 1.4
± 0.7m and 2.9 ± 0.5m respectively. The southern fault (F2), a 30◦ north dipping Whatever Does a M5.8 Earthquake on the Low Angle Normal Altotiberina
active oblique strike slip thrust fault, vertically offsets units Qf1 and Qf4 by 1.5 ± Fault (Italy)?
0.6m, and 12.7 ± 1.4m respectively. Geomorphic evidence suggests a roughly 3:1 BRAUN, T., INGV-Roma1, sede di Arezzo, Arezzo, AR, Italy, thomas.
lateral to vertical slip relationship, and with this we mathematically resolve these braun@ingv.it; CACIAGLI, M., INGV-Bologna, sede di Arezzo, Arezzo, AR,
vertical slip parameters onto their respective fault plane geometries to evaluate the Italy, marco.caciagli@ingv.it; PUCCI, S., INGV-Roma 1, Roma, RM,Italy;
strike slip component of motion. The strike slip component, in conjunction with BATLLO, J., ICGC-Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain, jobatllo@fc.ul.pt; CESCA, S.,
the age constraints gives the following Holocene strike slip rates: northern fault GFZ-Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, simone.cesca@gfz-potsdam.de
(F1): 1.6 ± 1.1mm/yr; southern fault (F2): 5.4 ± 1.1mm/yr. Summation of these
rates across the study area yields 7.0 ± 2.2 mm/yr for the Holocene strike slip rate The seismotectonics of the Upper Tiber Valley are dominated by the Altotiberina
through the San Gorgonio Pass. These faults, suspected of carrying the majority Fault (ATF), an NE-dipping low-angle normal fault system, and its antithetic
of San Andreas motion through the SGP are interpreted to release interseismic W-dipping high-angle normal faults. Although the southern part of the ATF
strain during large magnitude earthquakes of Mw 7 or greater (Yule and Sieh, was demonstrated to creep, its capability to generate strong or moderate
JGR 2003). earthquakes is still under debate. On April 26, 1917 at 9:35:59 (GMT) a strong
earthquake struck the northernmost portion of the Upper Tiber Valley (Tuscany)
producing severe damages and about 20 fatalities. The Catalogue of Strong Italian
New High-Resolution Topographic Data and Updated Tectonic Earthquakes reports this event as the so-called Monterchi earthquake, relating
Geomorphology at Wheeler Ridge, California to 134 macroseismic observations, mainly distributed on the western side of the
KLEBER, E. J., Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, ekleber@asu.edu; Tiber Valley. The maximum and epicentral intensity was determined as Io=IX-
ARROWSMITH, J. R., Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, ramon. X (MCS), corresponding to an equivalent magnitude of Me=6, that defines this
arrowsmith@asu.edu; DEVECCHIO, D. E., Arizona State University, event as the most important of the area. A total of 49 historical seismograms
Tempe, AZ, duane.devecchio@asu.edu from 19 different Euro-Mediterranean observatories are available in the database
of the SISMOS Project - INGV. The BAAS bulletin of 1917 reports a list of 21
Wheeler Ridge is an eastward propagating and north-vergent fault-bend fold seismological observatories that recorded the P and S-phases for this earthquake.
(10km axis, 330m topographic relief) at the northern front of the Transverse We included additional arrival-times deriving from further seismic bulletins - and
Range thrust system,San Joaquin Valley, CA. The presence of wind and water from digitalizing original historical seismograms. We obtain a new, robust and
gaps as well as elevated, distinct geomorphic surfaces along the fold axis show consistent hypocentral solution, coherent with the macroseismic data, in particular
that Wheeler Ridge is actively growing over the kyr-timescale. The soils, tectonic by using S-P travel time differences for recordings where the absolute timing is
geomorphology, structural modeling, and slip rate estimations were research foci uncertain. An accurate research on the technical characteristics of the recording
in the 1990’s. In October 2014, a 80 km2 area of high resolution (8 points/m2 ) historical seismometers (period, damping, gain etc.), allowed to deconvolve the
light detection and ranging (lidar) data was collected at Wheeler Ridge by the original digitalized seismic traces (i) to determine the main seismic parameters (Mo,
National Center for Airborne Laser Mapping (NCALM) via a graduate student Mw, Circular Fault Radius), (ii) to constrain the possible source mechanism, by
Seed grant. These data allow us to improve the detail of our observations of a combination of first motion analysis and modelling of synthetic seismograms,
the geomorphic surfaces across the fold and make a closer connection to the and (iii) to implement the solution in the framework of the regional tectonic
surface development, which reflects the evolution of the blind thrust fault at setting.

on 09 October 2018
evaluations of the potential for inducing earthquakes. Our simulations link
Induced Seismicity the multi-cycle fault system earthquake simulator, RSQSim to reservoir models
Oral Session · Thursday · 8:30 AM · 23 April · Ballroom B that give changes of effective stresses due to fluid injection. RSQSim is a
computationally efficient 3D boundary-element code that incorporates rate-
Session Chairs: Ivan Wong, Justin Rubinstein, Thomas Braun state fault friction to simulate long sequences of earthquakes in geometrically
and T.H.W. Goebel complicated, fully interacting fault systems. Our initial simulations focus on
investigation of injection near a single isolated fault and simple fault systems.
Typically the simulations can span an earthquake magnitude range from about
Geomechanical Assessment of Seismicity from Hydraulic Fracturing Mw=1 to Mw= 5. The space-time patterns of simulated induced seismicity are
MAXWELL, S. C., IMaGE, Calgary, AB, Canada, shawn.maxwell@itasca- quite sensitive to pre-injection fault stresses and injection parameters. For example,
image.com with increasing pre-injection shear stress, induced events increase in abundance,
expand more rapidly and post shut-in seismicity is enriched. Seismicity following
A coupled hydro-mechanical model is used to evaluate fault activation associated shut-in appears to be driven mainly by delayed nucleation, and decays by the Omori
with hydraulic fracturing in the Horn River Basin. The model is used to simulate aftershock decay law. For faults with initial stresses below some critical stress,
hydraulic fracture growth through a discrete fracture network, examining the pore which would result in near-term spontaneous rupture, the maximum magnitude
pressure diffusion and associated fracture dilation and shearing. Based on the of induced earthquakes increases roughly by 2/3log10 (V). Tests of traffic light
geomechanical model, the seismic activity can be predicted and used to compare procedures to shut-in injection wells, following some threshold criterion, indicate
with the actual seismicity monitored during the fracture treatment. The synthetic that earthquake magnitudes can continue to increase following shut-in.
microseismic prediction includes location, timing and magnitude of the activity
and can be used to validate the geomechanical attributes and calibrate the model Peak Rates and Largest Magnitude Events in Volcanic Earthquake Swarms
to match the field data. Applying such a microseismic geomechanics approach not MCNUTT, S. R., University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, smcnutt@usf.edu
only improves the interpretation of the microseismic image but also improves the
understanding of the geomechanical response of the reservoir. In this study, the We present results of recent studies of volcanic earthquake swarms, with the focus
impact of the hydraulic fracturing on a pre-existing fault was examined to quantify on identifying diagnostics. One clear pattern is that peak rates often occur early in
expected seismicity. A geomechanical model was created to investigate a Horn swarms, whereas the largest M event occurs late. Using a dataset of 20 swarms from
River Basin hydraulic fracture and the associated seismic magnitudes. The model the literature, swarm durations ranged from 12 h to 6 mos, measured from swarm
was designed to investigate the mechanism of fault activation and the impact of onset to eruption onset. Data were normalized to % duration. Peak rates occurred
fracturing at different locations around the fault. The study indicated that the from 1-42 % of the way through swarms (with 2 outliers), whereas the largest M
stimulated fracture network had to grow directly into the fault in order for the event occurred from 32-99 % of the way through. Additional evidence from 4 cases
injection pressure front to trigger fault slip. Geomechanical assessment can be suggests that the seismic source size grows systematically, especially for events with
used as input for quantification of absolute seismic hazard and used to modify the similar waveforms (families). This is revealed in plots of M or amplitude versus
engineering design prior to operations to minimize the seismic hazard including time for event families. For comparison, 19 cases of mid-ocean ridge swarms were
the placement of the well, and modify staging along the well to avoid fracturing in analyzed. These show durations of 1-42 days, with peak rates occurring 1-24 % of
the regions likely to lead to fault activation. In scenarios where induced seismicity the way through and largest M occurring 1-87 % of the way through. In 6 cases
occurs during the treatment, the method can also be used to examine operational largest M occurs before or at the same time as peak rate. Thus the pattern for
changes to lessen the relative seismic hazard. MOR swarms differs significantly from that for volcanic swarms. Further work
on volcanic swarms shows that the distribution of seismicity before the peak rate
differs from after, suggesting two dominant processes. The durations of post-peak
The Role of Fractures and Faults in Hydraulic Fracturing: A Percolation portions are roughly proportional to the peak rates. This is similar to the behavior
Perspective of aftershock sequences and suggests that diffusion is a controlling process. The
NORRIS, J. Q., University of California, Davis, CA, jqnorris@ucdavis.edu; portions of the swarms prior to the peaks behave differently, however. These may
TURCOTTE, D. L., University of California, Davis, CA, dlturcotte@ represent the invasion of hot fluids and the opening or reopening of cracks prior
ucdavis.edu; RUNDLE, J. B., University of California, Davis, CA, to magma intrusion. We infer that the growth in event size reflects activation of
rundle@physics.ucdavis.edu a preferred magma pathway. Recognition of such patterns, linked to processes,
may help to improve monitoring and reduce risks from eruptions. Comparison
Large-scale hydraulic fracturing for the recovery of oil and gas from shale reservoirs is recommended between the patterns observed here and those associated with
has led to dramatic drops in the prices of oil and gas. This recovery has also led to induced seismicity from fracking and deep well injection.
growing concern over the risks of induced seismicity during hydraulic fracturing
treatments. While the majority of observed microseismic events associated with Are Source Characteristics of Fluid Driven Hydraulic Fracture Induced
hydraulic fracturing have been relatively small (M<0), there have been a few Earthquakes Distinct from Natural Tectonic Earthquakes?
larger earthquakes (M>3) associated with hydraulic fracturing, and the possibility VIEGAS, G., ESG Solutions, Kingston, ON, Canada, gisela.
of even larger earthquakes cannot be ruled out. It is widely recognized that the fernandes@esgsolutions.com; URBANCIC, T., ESG Solutions, Kingston,
hydraulic fracturing process is dominated by pre-existing reservoir fractures and ON, Canada, ted.urbabcic@esgsolutions.com; BAIG, A., ESG Solutions,
faults; however, the specific role these fractures and faults play in the process is Kingston, ON, Canada, adam.baig@esgsolutions.com
unclear. We have developed a percolation model for fracking and have recently
included the ability to model fractures and faults in reservoirs. Our model produces We investigate earthquakes (-M3 to M1) associated with hydraulic fracture
bursts similar to the microseismic events observed during fracking treatments. stimulations of a shale reservoir in NE British Columbia, Canada. Events with
Theses bursts follow a power-law (Gutenburg-Richter) frequency-size distribution M < 0 generally locate within the stimulated reservoir whereas events with M >
and have growth rates similar to observed earthquake moment rates. Our model 0 are associated with slip on pre-existing features below the reservoir. A hybrid
can be used to: 1. identify the role fractures and faults play in the hydraulic system of high frequency geophones near reservoir depth and near-surface lower
fracturing process, 2. identify risks associated with hydraulic fracturing treatments, frequency sensors were used to accurately estimate source characteristics of the
3. determine physical differences between on and off fault seismic events, and 4. induced events. We calculate moment tensor solutions, fracture plane orientations,
quantify the risk of inducing large earthquakes on faults near the injection site. static and dynamic earthquake source parameters, and their energy budget looking
for fluid flow characteristic signals. On average, the reservoir events have low static
Application of Large-Scale Earthquake Simulations to Seismicity Induced by and dynamic stress drops, apparent stress, radiated energy and seismic efficiency,
Fluid Injection and have shear-tensile mechanisms varying between dominant tensile closing and
DIETERICH, J. H., UC Riverside, Riverside, CA, dieterichj@ucr.edu; tensile opening, and slip on fault planes with orientations dominated by the
RICHARDS-DINGER, K. B., UC Riverside, Riverside, CA, keithrd@ucr.edu; rock fabric and not always optimally oriented to the regional stress field. These
KROLL, K. A., UC Riverside, Riverside, CA, kakroll5@gmail.com source characteristics are expected for events driven by increased pore pressure,
reduced fault friction due to lubrication, and slow rupture velocities for un-
System-level simulations that couple physics-based models of seismicity with favorably oriented slip-fracture planes. Events located below the reservoir are
reservoir models provide an experimental capability to investigate topics related to generally larger in magnitude, have higher static and dynamic stress drops, and
induced seismicity. These include 1) investigation of the system-level interactions energies than the reservoir events. This not only reflects the higher confining
controlling induced seismicity; 2) characterization of the relationships among stresses but also potentially the release of stored strain energy within the fault
injection parameters, reservoir characteristics and seismicity; 3) development zone. In general, these deeper events are dominated by shear failures, however,
of best-practices protocols for injection projects; and 4) probabilistic hazard the observed source characteristics are smaller than for natural occurring tectonic

on 09 October 2018
earthquakes of comparable size. Considering the cause-effect relationship between common than previously recognized in Oklahoma and suggest that this occurrence
fluid injection programs and nearby deeper earthquakes our study suggests that is more common elsewhere. This raises the questions of whether the occurrence
source parameters can be used to discriminate between fluid-induced and stress- is more common or simply that recognition has increased. Whatever the cause
induced failures associated with hydraulic fracture stimulations. of the increased identification of earthquakes triggered by hydraulic fracturing,
the identification and research of these cases can provide virtual observatories in
Are ENA Potentially Induced Earthquakes Different from Natural different geologic settings for studying triggered seismicity from fluid injection. It
Earthquakes? is generally thought that waste-water disposal wells pose the greatest hazard from
CRAMER, C. H., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, ccramer@ injection induced seismicity, and while this may be true disposal wells generally
memphis.edu have limited amounts of geotechnical data available. In contrast production wells
that have been hydraulic fractured often have much more geotechnical information
The question of whether induced earthquakes have significantly different source available and provide constraints to the processes and properties of the subsurface.
characteristics than naturally occurring earthquakes (NOE) is important if such a Cases identified from hydraulic fracturing will be used to demonstrate initial
difference exists. I review the Brune stress parameter (stress drop) estimates from efforts of virtual observatories for induced seismicity.
some recent potentially induced earthquakes (PIE). Transverse velocity Fourier
spectra are examined for a corner-frequency peak, taking into account the possible
presence of a neighboring spectral peak due to the strong surface waves from Seismic Monitoring and Analysis of a Deep Geothermal Project in St. Gallen,
shallow events. Brune stress parameters for an assumed geometrical spreading of Switzerland
R−1 are estimated from observed magnitude and corner-frequency for each event. EDWARDS, B., ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland, edwards@sed.ethz.ch;
(An assumed geometrical spreading of R−1.3 would yield a proportionally higher KRAFT, T., ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland, kraft@sed.ethz.ch; CAUZZI,
stress parameter as stated by Boore et al., 2010.) Atkinson and Boore (2006) found C., ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland, cauzzi@sed.ethz.ch; KÄSTLI, P., ETH
that the average ENA Brune stress parameter of this type to be 14 MPa. PIEs Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland, kaestli@sed.ethz.ch; WIEMER, S., ETH Zürich,
in Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and Ohio have Brune stress parameters Zürich, Switzerland, wiemer@sed.ethz.ch
ranging from 5 to 10 MPa. Shallow NOEs (depth less than 5 km) appear to
Monitoring and understanding induced seismicity is critical in order to estimate
have a similar range of Brune stress parameters. Ground motions for a given and mitigate seismic risk related to numerous existing and emerging techniques
earthquake can be influenced by stress parameter and by crustal attenuation (Q). for natural resource exploitation in the shallow-crust. State of the art approaches
PIEs in Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas are near a Q boundary at about for guiding decision making, such as traffic light systems, heavily rely on data
35N latitude between ENA mid-continental and Gulf Coast Q, which influences such as earthquake location and magnitude that are provided to them. In this
ground motions (and intensities) observed to the north differently than to the context we document the monitoring of a deep geothermal energy project in St.
south. Justin Hollenback for the NGA East project at the PEER Center also shows Gallen, Switzerland. We focus on the issues of earthquake magnitude, ground
that event terms from a mixed effects analysis for the NGA East database are similar
motion and macroseismic intensity which are important components of the seismic
for PIEs and shallow NOEs and lower than deeper NOEs. Thus both a Brune stress hazard associated to the project. We highlight the problems with attenuation
parameter analysis and an event term analysis (allowing for regional Q) show that corrections for magnitude estimation and site amplification that were observed
ENA PIEs are similar to shallow NOEs and lower for deeper NOEs and hence may when trying to apply practices used for regional seismicity monitoring to a small
not be distinct from shallow NOEs.
scale monitoring network. We developed a simple procedure, calibrated using
larger events, which allowed the calculation of ML on only stations of the local
A Comparison of Stress Drop Between Tectonic and Potentially Induced monitoring network, without bias. A simple relation between the amplitude at the
Earthquakes in the CEUS central borehole station of the monitoring network and ML was then found to
BOYD, O. S., USGS, Golden, CO, olboyd@usgs.gov; MCNAMARA, D., provide robust estimates (±0.17 units) for the events down to ML -1. This relation
USGS, Golden, CO, mcnamara@usgs.gov; HARTZELL, S., USGS, Golden, could then be used to estimate the magnitude of even smaller events (ML < -1)
CO, shartzell@usgs.gov; CHOY, G., USGS, Golden, CO, choy@usgs.gov only recorded on the central borehole station. We analysed ground-motion and
Stress drop for earthquakes in the central and eastern United States is a critical detailed macroseismic reports resulting from the St. Gallen ML3.5 (Mw3.3-3.5)
parameter for estimating seismic hazard. This parameter can have a strong effect “mainshock” and compared it to a similar ML3.4 event (Mw 3.2) that occurred in
on ground motion amplitudes at high frequencies, and is especially important in 2006 at another deep geothermal project in Basel, Switzerland. The ground motion
Oklahoma and Kansas where earthquake rates and hazard have increased sharply and, to an extent, the associated macroseismic observations could be explained
in terms of the different moment magnitudes at long periods and the different
since 2008. Yet an evaluation of seismic hazard in the CEUS is adversely impacted
because of limited high-frequency ground-motion records at moderate to large stress-drops (Basel: 3.5MPa vs St. Gallen: 2.1MPa) and corresponding ML at short
magnitudes as well as few ground motion prediction equations with a strict periods, respectively.
dependence on stress drop. Stress drops for tectonic earthquakes in the central and
eastern United States are thought to be high relative to plate boundary regions Was 2012 Brawley Swarm Triggered by Fluid Injection?
like that in California, in part because the high frequency shaking observed for WEI, S. J., EOS-NTU, Singapore, shjwei@gmail.com; AVOUAC, J. P., Caltech,
many CEUS events of the same magnitude is greater. This may be due to stressing Pasadena, CA, avouac@gps.caltech.edu; HUDNUT, K. W., USGS, Pasadena,
rates in the CEUS that are lower, which give faults more time to heal. This CA; DONNELLAN, A., JPL, Pasadena, CA; PARKER, J. W., JPL, Pasadena,
generalization has been complicated however, by recent potentially induced events CA; GRAVES, R. W., USGS, Pasadena, CA; HELMBERGER, D. V., Caltech,
in Oklahoma and Kansas where reported intensities, which are sensitive to higher Pasadena, CA; FIELDING, E., JPL, Pasadena,CA; LIU, Z, JPL, Pasadena, CA;
ground motion shaking frequencies, are not as strong as expected for the given CAPPA, F; ENEVA, M.
magnitude. We address this issue by measuring stress drops for several CEUS
tectonic and potentially induced earthquakes. Stress drops are estimated from It has long been known that fluid injection or withdrawal can induce earthquakes,
modeling earthquake spectra directly, spectral ratios, the extent of aftershocks, and but the underlying mechanisms remain elusive. For example, the 2012 Brawley
empirical Green’s function analysis. We confirm the expectation from reported swarm, which produced two strike-slip shocks with magnitudes larger than 5.3
intensities that spectral amplitudes at high frequency are relatively low and infer and surface ruptures in the close vicinity of a geothermal field, started with
that stress drops are considerably lower for potentially induced earthquakes, earthquakes about 5 kilometers deeper than the injection depth (˜ 1.5km),
possibly due to their relatively shallow depths. These results suggest that, while making the causality between the injection and seismicity unclear. Here, we
hazard may be greater in the epicentral area due to the shallow focal depths of jointly analyze broadband and strong motion waveforms, UAVSAR, leveling
potentially induced events, the low stress drop can help to moderate the higher measurements and field observations to reveal the detailed seismic and aseismic
hazard at greater distances. faulting behaviors associated with the 2012 Brawley swarm. In particular, path
calibration established from smaller events in the swarm allows waveform inversion
Are Earthquakes Triggered By Hydraulic Fracturing More Common Than to be conducted up to 3Hz to resolve finite rupture process of the Mw4.7
Previously Recognized? normal event. Our results show that the earthquake sequence was preceded by
HOLLAND, A. A., University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, austin. aseismic slip on a shallow normal fault, which was well consistent with the
holland@ou.edu; DAROLD, A. P., University of Oklahoma, Norman, timing and location of the massive fluid injection. Aseismic slip triggered the
OK, adarold@ou.edu following earthquakes subsequently, including unusually shallow and relatively
high frequency seismic excitations on the normal fault. In this example, seismicity
Felt earthquakes and earthquakes larger than microseismic seismicity common is induced indirectly by fluid injection, a result of mediation by aseismic
in hydraulic fracturing have become recognized in more places globally. Recent creep, rather than directly by a pore pressure increase at the location of the
work suggests that earthquakes triggered by hydraulic fracturing may be more earthquakes.

on 09 October 2018
Changes in the Characteristics of Induced Seismicity due to long-term colorado.edu; WEINGARTEN, M., University of Colorado, Boulder, CO,
Fluid Injection at The Geysers Geothermal Field: Implications to Fracture matthew.weingarten@colorado.edu; BILEK, S. L., New Mexico Institute of
Generation Mechanism and Seismic Hazard Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM, sbilek@ees.nmt.edu
KWIATEK, G., GFZ German Research Centre, Potsdam, Germany, kwiatek@
gfz-potsdam.de; MARTÍNEZ-GARZÓN, P., GFZ German Research Centre The rate of seismicity in the Raton Basin of Colorado and New Mexico has
for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany, patricia@gfz-potsdam.de; BOHNHOFF, increased dramatically since 2000, and the region has been the locus of intense
M., GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam. Germany, hydrocarbon extraction and fluid waste injection during that same time period.
bohnhoff@gfz-potsdam.de; DRESEN, G., GFZ German Research Centre, Detailed aftershock surveys were conducted by the USGS following the 2001
Potsdam, Germany, dre@gfz-potsdam.de; SONE, H., GFZ German Research magnitude 4.6 and 2011 magnitude 5.3 earthquakes, and a private seismic network
Centre, Potsdam, Germany, sone@gfz-potsdam.de; HARTLINE, C., Calpine has been deployed since 2012. In this study we focus on the time period that
Corporation, Middletown, CA the EarthScope USArray seismic network was deployed in the region from 2008-
2010, supplemented by data from the coincident PASSCAL CREST experiment.
In this study we analyze changes in physical and statistical characteristics of induced A catalog of >1200 earthquakes complete to local magnitude ML 1.2 in the
seismicity recorded during a long-term fluid injection and production project in the Raton Basin in Colorado and New Mexico was located using P and S wave arrivals
northwestern part of The Geysers geothermal field, California. For this purpose, a for the time period August 1, 2008 to August 31, 2009,. The earthquakes were
distinct cluster of seismicity related to the injection operations at the wells Prati- first located using a generalized least squares inversion algorithm with the iasp91
9/Prati-29 covering the time period 2007-2014 was investigated. The initial catalog velocity model, followed by relocation using a region specific velocity model using
of 1814 events was extensively refined. The double-difference relocation technique several different location algorithms. The daily moment release and magnitude
was applied followed by recalculation of focal mechanism using HASH. The source distribution and a comparison with the monthly injection volume data from wells
parameters were initially calculated using spectral fitting and then refined using in the Raton Basin will be presented. Initial locations show distinct clusters of
spectral ratio technique. The temporal changes in source characteristics were used earthquakes, and the temporal evolution of locations will also be analyzed to study
together with stress inversion data, b-value, injection and production data and GPS the migration patterns of the earthquakes. A swarm of 200 events occurring in
observations to investigate the effects of long term fluid injection and extraction on July and August of 2009 is found to coincide with large fluctuations of injection
the seismicity. We found a 30 times lower cumulative moment release at Prati-29 in volumes in nearby wells. The largest earthquake in the swarm was ml 4.3. Two wells
comparison to Prati-9 despite of comparable injection rates. The static stress drop within 5 km of the edge of the swarm show a combined increase in injection volume
of events in the vicinity of Prati-29 was observed to be remarkably lower. We found of 334,000 bbl/month from June to July and a combined decrease of 299,000
a general deepening of seismicity with time as well as a transition in the dominant bbl/month from July to August. Interestingly, in the 2008-2009 period there is
focal mechanism from normal to strike slip faulting with increasing depth. Also, a complete lack of events along the zone of high seismicity associated with the
larger events were found to occur at greater depths. The b-values were weakly M 5.3 2011 earthquake and identified as a potential fault by Rubenstein et al.,
decreasing with time, accompanied by an increase in static stress drop, apparent (2014).
stress and a significant decrease in relative stress magnitude. These changes are
attributed to the intensive fluid injection and limited production leading overall to Wastewater Disposal, Hydraulic Fracturing, and Seismicity in Southern
the significant increase in the amount of fluids persistently present in the vicinity Kansas
of investigated area. The results are discussed in the context of potential long term RUBINSTEIN, J. L., USGS, Menlo Park, CA, jrubinstein@usgs.gov;
changes in the physical mechanism leading to the occurrence of induced seismicity
ELLSWORTH, W. L., USGS, Menlo Park, CA, ellsworth@usgs.gov; BENZ,
and seismic hazard.
H., USGS, Golden, CO, benz@usgs.gov; WALTER, S., USGS, Menlo Park, CA,
swalter@usgs.gov; LLENOS, A., USGS, Menlo Park, CA, allenos@usgs.gov
Oilfield Operations and Earthquakes in the Greater Los Angeles Basin,
Southern California: Analyzing a Century of Data, Including Volume Changes The concurrent increase in earthquake rate and expansion of oil and gas activities in
and Mmax southern Kansas since September 2012 suggests that fluid injection is responsible
HAUKSSON, E., Caltech, Pasadena, CA, hauksson@gps.caltech.edu; for the increase in the earthquake rate. From December 2013 to November 2014,
GOEBEL, T. H. W., Caltech, Pasadena, CA, tgoebel@gps.caltech.edu; forty M=3 and two M=4 earthquakes occurred in southern Kansas, the largest
AMPUERO, J. P., Caltech, Pasadena, CA, ampuero@gps.caltech.edu; a M4.8 earthquake in November 2014. In May 2014, the USGS deployed a 14-
COCHRAN, E., USGS, Pasadena, CA, ecochran@usgs.gov station seismic network to record these earthquakes. Over 2,000 earthquakes have
been detected in the study area. The seismicity is found in clusters and lineations,
Most of the seismicity in the Los Angeles Basin (LAB) occurs at depth below the with some lineations extending up to 10 km. Focal mechanisms indicate normal
basin and is caused by transpressional tectonics, related to the big bend in the faulting, consistent with the local tectonic stress field. These earthquakes are
San Andreas Fault, but some could be associated with production in oilfields that occurring in the Mississippian Lime Play, an oil and gas play stretching from
cover ˜17% of the LAB. The normalized seismicity rates as well as focal depths central Oklahoma to northwestern Kansas. Current development in Kansas is
and b-values within and outside the oilfields are almost identical. We investigate largely in the adjoining areas of Harper and Sumner counties. Production and
relative production and seismicity from different fields by comparing them with the wastewater injection increased by approximately a factor of 5 between 2010 and
anomalous activity during the deformation of the Wilmington oilfield from 1932 2013. Projections indicate that production and injection will increase further in
to 1961. Additionally, we investigate when other LAB oilfields may experience 2014. Much of the new injection is accommodated by new, high-rate injection
similar reservoir deformation. Since 1977, when production data become available, wells (some as high as 600,000 barrels/month). It is possible that both wastewater
most LAB fields have normalized cumulative changes in fluid volume that are small injection and hydraulic fracturing are inducing seismicity in the area. Some of
and show slow steady withdrawal of fluids. In contrast, wells within the Richfield, the earthquake clusters and lineations lie within 1-2 kilometers of new, high-rate
discovered in 1919, and Wilmington, discovered in 1932, oilfields are currently wastewater injection wells. Other, short-lived clusters of seismicity are adjacent
injecting at high, normalized rates leading to a net increase in fluid volume in the to production wells and occur shortly before they were completed, the time at
reservoirs. In the past, the Wilmington oilfield experienced a high rate of fluid which a production well would be hydraulically fractured. Not all of the clusters
withdrawal from 1932 to 1961 that caused reduction in pore-pressure, gravitational of seismicity can be readily associated with injection wells or hydraulic fracturing
collapse, and numerous induced (M2 to M3.3) earthquakes (1949-1961). Total treatments. Similarly, not all injection wells or hydraulic fracturing treatments can
normalized extraction volume for the other LAB oilfields appears to be more than be related unambiguously to earthquakes.
a factor of three smaller than the Wilmington extraction volume. McGarr (2014)
showed that the expected maximum magnitude of an earthquake induced by fluid
injection was proportional to the total injected volume. Only the Huntington, Are There Relations between Basement Geologic Features and Seismicity in
Richfield, and Wilmington oilfields have experienced net injection since 1977 with Oklahoma? Constraints from Magnetic and Gravity Anomaly Maps
maximum magnitude up to M3.2. Most LAB oilfields have experienced net fluid SHAH, A. K., U.S. Gelogical Survey, Denver, CO, ashah@usgs.gov; KELLER,
withdrawal during the last 35 years. The corresponding maximum magnitudes of G. R., Oklahoma Geological Survey/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK,
earthquakes located within perimeters of the LAB oilfields exhibit an increase with grkeller@ou.edu
extraction volume, similar to injection. Seismic activity since 2009 in central and northern Oklahoma includes thousands
of earthquakes located in the crystalline basement. In order to examine if and
Potential Induced Seismicity in the Raton Basin, Colorado and New Mexico, how basement geology might influence seismicity, we have worked to better image
2008-2009 subsurface features through analyses of reprocessed aeromagnetic and gravity data.
NAKAI, J. S., University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, jenny.nakai@colorado.edu; Faults and other features that influence the local and/or regional permeability
SHEEHAN, A. F., University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, anne.sheehan@ structure are of particular interest. Much of the Oklahoma seismicity occurs

on 09 October 2018
within the mid-Proterozoic western granite-rhyolite terrane. Within this terrane, regions where active faults have been mapped and long-term slip-rates estimated,
occasional mafic intrusive rocks have been observed via drill holes. Regional fault area is a robust indicator of maximum magnitude and slip rate controls the
magnetic data show smooth patches of highs and lows likely representing variations frequency of earthquake occurrence. To conclude, the seismic hazards of natural
in magnetite content of the granite and rhyolite and/or underlying older rocks. and induced earthquakes are not similar and need to be assessed separately.
In central and northern Oklahoma, several prominent rounded magnetic highs
and lows with sharper boundaries and corresponding gradient highs are present. Incorporating Induced Seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic
We interpret these as probable mafic intrusions that may be associated with the Hazard Models
southern extension of the mid-continent rift. Additionally, shaded relief maps PETERSEN, M. D., USGS, Golden, CO, mpetersen@usgs.gov; MUELLER,
of the magnetic field show numerous NE- and some NNW-trending lineaments C. S., USGS, Golden, CO, cmueller@usgs.gov; MOSCHETTI, M. P.,
which may represent major faults or folds. Some lineaments show correspondences USGS, Golden, CO, mmoschetti@usgs.gov; HOOVER, S. M., USGS,
with features in surface geologic maps, suggesting basement influence on the Golden, CO, shoover@usgs.gov; RUBINSTEIN, J. L., USGS, Menlo
morphology of the overlaying strata. In map view, numerous earthquakes that Park, CA, jrubinstein@usgs.gov; LLENOS, A. L., USGS, Menlo Park,
occurred since 2009 are clustered near the edges of the interpreted mafic intrusions CA, allenos@usgs.gov; MICHAEL, A., USGS, Menlo Park, CA,
but are less frequently located directly over them, even when they are close to michael@usgs.gov; ELLSWORTH, W. L., USGS, Menlo Park, CA,
high-volume injection wells. Considering that high-permeability areas may be ellsworth@usgs.gov; HOLLAND, A.A., Oklahoma Geological Survey,
more susceptible to pore fluid pressure changes that can bring faults closer to Oklahoma City, OK; ANDERSON, J.G., University of Nevada, Reno, NV
failure, we hypothesize that decreased permeability within mafic intrusions and
increased permeability near contacts between them and other rocks may influence The USGS seismic hazard models for the conterminous United States were
the observed patterns of seismicity. updated in 2014 to account for new methods, input models, and data necessary
for assessing the hazard from natural (tectonic) earthquakes, but these maps did
Scientific Principles Affecting Protocols for Site-characterization and Risk not consider hazard from induced earthquakes. Unlike most natural earthquakes,
Assessment Related to the Potential for Seismicity Triggered by Wastewater induced seismicity has non-stationary temporal and spatial patterns that are
Injection and Hydraulic Fracturing difficult to predict since they may be based on economic and policy decisions
WALTERS, R. J., Stanford University, Stanford, CA, walters1@stanford.edu; (especially for a 50-year interval for which the USGS hazard maps are typically
ZOBACK, M. D., Stanford University, Stanford, CA, zoback@stanford.edu; developed). To discuss and assess the latest research and products that will be useful
BAKER, J. W., Stanford University, Stanford, CA, bakerjw@stanford.edu; to decision makers, the USGS and the Oklahoma Geological Survey co-hosted
BEROZA, G. C., Stanford University, Stanford, CA, beroza@stanford.edu a workshop that included about 150 participants from academia, industry, and
government in Midwest City, OK. Workshop participants indicated a need for
Regulatory and governmental agencies, individual companies, industry groups short-term hazard information that accounts for the rapid changes in seismicity
and others are developing guidelines aimed at reducing the risk associated with in the 17 areas that contain potentially induced earthquakes. We develop a new
earthquakes triggered by waste water injection or hydraulic fracturing. While hazard analysis that is calculated at 1 percent and 0.04 percent probability of
there are a number of elements common to the guidelines proposed, important exceedance in 1 year rather than the typical 50-year period. Models use the previous
considerations are often not addressed. Our goal is to present some of the year’s seismicity to forecast the rate and locations of seismicity for the next year.
scientific principles that should be considered when attempting to mitigate the risk Results indicate large changes in uniform hazard maps depending on: (1) the
associated with potentially triggered and induced seismicity. The topics we address range of earthquake magnitudes applied in the forecast model, (2) whether or
include the geologic setting of a site and surrounding region, the earthquake history not clustered earthquakes (foreshocks, aftershocks, and swarms) are included, (3)
of the area, the hydrologic characteristics of the injection and adjacent formations, the b-value of the magnitude-frequency distribution, (4) the effectiveness of using
a geomechanical characterization that includes the current state of stress and seismicity from one year to predict the next year’s activity, (5) the degree of spatial
existence of potentially active faults, the state of seismic monitoring and reporting, smoothing, (6) the assumed maximum magnitude of future earthquakes, and (7)
current monitoring and reporting requirements for injection pressures, volumes, the ground motion models applied in the analysis. Seismic hazard is much higher in
and rates, seismic hazard and risk assessment, and responding to potentially Oklahoma and the zones where induced seismicity is occurring than in the original
triggered events. We recommend the use of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis 2014 seismic hazard models.
(PSHA) as the foundation for risk assessment prior to injection as well as to
evaluate the time varying hazard and subsequent change in risk in the event of Examination of the Strong Motion and Broadband Data for Injection-Induced
apparently triggered seismicity. Last, we offer a modified Traffic Light System Earthquakes in the U.S.
that is designed to be pro-active. We encourage measures that are risk based, WONG, I., AECOM, Oakland, CA, ivan.wong@aecom.com; BOTT, J.,
adaptable, goal oriented, and rely, to the degree possible, on established best AECOM, Oakland, CA; DOBER, M., AECOM, Oakland, CA; THOMAS, P.,
practice procedures, referring to existing procedures and recommendations. AECOM, Oakland, CA
How Similar are the Seismic Hazards from Natural and Fluid-Induced We have compiled a strong motion and broadband database of shallow induced
Earthquakes? earthquakes in the U.S. due to fluid injection. Data principally include events
MCGARR, A., USGS, Menlo Park, CA, mcgarr@usgs.gov; RUBINSTEIN, J., from central Oklahoma but also from The Geysers, California, Guy, Arkansas,
USGS, Menlo Park, CA; ELLSWORTH, W., USGS, Menlo Park, CA Timpson, Texas, Conway Springs, Kansas, and Paradox Valley, Colorado. There
are six issues we attempted to address in our analyses: 1) are the ground motions
The 2014 USGS long-term (50-year) model for seismic hazard in the U.S. from injection-induced earthquakes similar to natural tectonic earthquakes; 2) if
(Petersen et al., 2014), which guides design provisions in building codes, no, are the ground motions smaller or larger for injection-induced earthquakes;
intentionally excludes contributions from induced earthquakes The need to 3) are the ground motions from geothermal-induced earthquakes different from
account for these industrial sources has motivated an effort to develop a induced earthquakes due to wastewater injection; 4) can we predict ground shaking
separate hazard model (Rubinstein et al., 2014). Developing such a model is not from injection-induced earthquakes; 5) does tectonic regime make a difference
straightforward. Whereas natural seismicity is assumed to be independent of time, e.g., western versus central and eastern U.S. (CEUS); and 6) can typical induced
induced seismicity shows considerable time dependence owing to its ever-changing earthquakes which are smaller than M 5 be damaging. The recorded ground
industrial origins; accordingly, the model will provide one-year hazard estimates motions were compared with several ground motion prediction models for tectonic
updated frequently. To illustrate a few other differences, consider a disposal well earthquakes including the models of Atkinson (2015) for shallow events in
that injects wastewater into a deep aquifer at a location close to a fault that is tectonically active areas, EPRI (2013) for the CEUS, and the NGA-West2 models
well oriented for slip in the ambient stress field. In numerous case histories, it for tectonically active areas. The Atkinson (2015) model is the only model that
appears that the increase in pore pressure from the injection well is transmitted has been developed to date in the U.S. for use in predicting ground motions
through the aquifer to the fault where induced earthquakes occur. Their frequency from induced earthquakes. However, the model has been developed from the
of occurrence appears to be controlled by the injection rate and the effective NGA-West2 database which is contingent on the above issue #1. The shallow
hydraulic diffusivity of the fault zone. Results from many case histories suggest nature of induced earthquakes in a low Q crustal environment and the resulting
that total injected volume is the principal factor limiting the maximum magnitude, potentially lower stress drops has also been recently suggested as a cause for lower
but additional factors cannot be ruled out. For natural earthquakes, in contrast, ground motions as compared to tectonic earthquakes. The ground motion data are
throughout much of the central and eastern U.S., faults are not considered in also compared with two models developed for geothermal-induced earthquakes:
assessments of hazard. Instead, Gutenberg-Richter magnitude statistics are used Sharma et al. (2013), and Douglas et al. (2013). Arias intensities and durations were
with an assumed b-value near 1 and an a-value estimated from the earthquake calculated from the database to assess two of the parameters which can be related
catalog; maximum magnitude is usually assumed to be near 7. Alternatively, in to damage.

on 09 October 2018
Shallow Earthquakes and Ground Shaking near Newmont Mining and Research Institute, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan, masumi@eqh.
Barrick Goldstrike Facilities, Carlin, Nevada dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp
SMITH, K., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, ken@seismo.unr.edu;
JAMKHANA, Z., Barrick Goldstrike Mines, Inc., Elko, NV, Zjamkhana@ The 2011 eruption at Shinmoe-dake, Kirishima volcano in Kyushu, Japan
barrick.com; FERLAND, P., Newmont Mining, Inc., Elko, NV, Patrick. produced several strong explosions. We analyzed video and seismic data from the
Ferland@newmont.com; KENT, G., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, strongest explosion on the morning of February 1. In the video we can observe
gkent@seismo.unr.edu the shockwave as it propagates down the slope of the volcano at a fast speed. We
can also see the shockwave propagating upward through the vapor cloud. Using a
Between April 7 and July 30, 2014, four shallow (< 2km depth) earthquakes of correction for the topography, we estimate the velocity from the first few seconds
Magnitude ˜2.0-2.5 caused ground shaking at Newmont Mining’s (1-event) and of the video which is recorded at 60 frames per second. The velocity is initially
Barrick Gold’s facilities (3-events) in northeast Nevada. The companies conduct very fast, with speeds greater than the sound velocity for a distance of over one
surface pit and underground mining operations about 30 miles north of Carlin, kilometer, and then slows gradually to sonic velocity. The explosion appears to be
Nevada. The Carlin gold trend accounts for about 40% of all Nevada gold rather complex with at least three significant phases during the first 1.5 secs, with
production. The shaking events resulted in preventive evacuation and inspection the third phase being the strongest. This explosion broke windows as far as 10 km
of underground facilities/workings; no fault offset or damage was observed in from the summit, so the initial very fast propagation speed may be indicative of the
the underground. Based on nearly identical shaking reports, the initial event large power of the explosion.
occurred near Newmont’s Leeville operation on March 18, with the second on
April 7, most likely ˜8-10 km NW of Leeville near Barrick facilities. No local
surface seismic stations were in operation (an underground accelerometer array Infrasound in the Stratosphere Measured with a Free Flying Acoustic Array
was operating at Leeville); locations of the initial events are highly uncertain. By BOWMAN, D. C., The University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC,
May 29, with Barrick and Newmont support, the Nevada Seismological Laboratory daniel.bowman@unc.edu; LEES, J. M., The University of North Carolina,
(NSL) installed a local 7-station real-time seismic network. This network was Chapel Hill, NC, jonathan.lees@unc.edu
in place for two Magnitude ˜2.5 earthquakes on July 29 and July 30. These
In-situ measurements of infrasound in the troposphere and stratosphere were
events appear to be associated west dipping normal faults, termed the J-faults.
performed during a high altitude balloon flight over New Mexico and Arizona
The largest of these earthquakes occurred on July 30, 2014 20:48:43.10 UTC at
on August 9, 2014. The three element acoustic array maintained an altitude
a depth of ˜1 km, ˜700 meters west of Barrick’s surface facilities. Nearest station
of 37 kilometers above sea level (˜35 kilometers above ground surface) for 5.6
measured ground motions were, PGA: 5.3%g; PGV; 0.92 cm/sec. Despite a nearly
hours, traveling 632 kilometers from launch to landing. The amplitude and
6 week time period between initial Newmont and Barrick events, estimated to be
frequency of wind noise during balloon ascent decreased with height, becoming
separated by ˜8 km, the nearly identical felt reports also suggest shallow sources at
insignificant at 20 km elevation and above. Very long period pressure fluctuations
near distance. Most recently, two felt earthquakes near Leeville on December 17,
consistent with acoustic-gravity waves were recorded throughout flight. These
required underground inspection. As a result of these earthquakes, Newmont and
fluctuations were generally similar in frequency and phase with ˜10 m altitude
Barrick have significantly improved their local monitoring networks.
variations detected by an on-board GPS. A spectral peak in the ocean microbarom
frequency range is present on the airborne sensors but not on ground stations
in the flight path. Fourier spectrograms of infrasound-range signals reveal several
Observing Infrasonic Sources from Ground to Space prominent narrow band features and distinct episodes of broadband energy. Some
Oral Session · Thursday · 8:30 AM · 23 April · Ballroom C narrow band signals vary in frequency over approximately 10 minutes. A 17
Hz monochromatic signal is coherent between a ground infrasound station near
Session Chairs: Omar Marcillo, Stephen Arrowsmith and Albuquerque, New Mexico, and the balloon array as it flies overhead. In general, the
Lucie Rolland spectral content of infrasound-range pressure fluctuations on the airborne sensors
was richer than that of nearby ground stations. Our results suggest that airborne
stations may have a much greater detection range and/or reduction in wind noise
Joint Inversion of Seismic and Barometric Data for Surface-Pressure Source: compared to ground sensors; conversely, motion of the flight system may introduce
Monitoring of the Decay of a Hurricane Eyewall spurious signals into the data set. We will discuss how results from this study
LAMONTAGNE, A., University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, inform the design of free flying acoustic arrays both on Earth and on other
annelamontagne@umail.ucsb.edu; TANIMOTO, T., University of California, planets.
Santa Barbara, CA, toshiro@geol.ucsb.edu
Tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons) are mostly atmospheric phenomena Ionospheric Seismology : from Earth Maturity to Venus Dreams
but they also generate significant ground motions in the solid earth when they LOGNONNE, P., Univ Paris , Paris, France, lognonne@ipgp.fr; ROLLAND,
become strong. If a dense seismological array existed along the path of a hurricane, L., Geoazur, Univ., Nice, France, lrolland@geoazur.unice.fr; RAKOTO,
we could learn about some processes near the hurricane eye and the change of its V., Univ Paris, Paris, France, rakoto@ipgp.fr; COISSON, P., Univ Paris
intensity through seismic data. In this study, we report our analysis of Hurricane Diderot, Paris, France, coisson@ipgp.fr; KHELFI, K., Univ Paris Diderot,
Isaac which passed through Earthscope’s Transportable Array (TA) and whose Paris, France, khelfi@ipgp.fr; DRILLEAU, M., Univ Paris Diderot, Paris,
decay process was recorded in seismic and barometric data. Hurricane Isaac was France, drilleau@ipgp.fr; MAKELA, J., University of Illinois, Urbana, IL,
mostly a tropical storm during its lifetime but it became a hurricane about 12 hours jmakela@illinois.edu; ASTAFYEVA, E., Univ Paris Diderot, Paris, France,
before the first landfall at the mouth of the Mississippi river at 0000 UTC August astafyeva@ipgp.fr; OCCHIPINTI, G, Univ Paris Diderot, Paris, France;
29 2012. The eye then went back over the ocean, but stayed near the coast, and GARCIA, R., MIMOUN, D., ISAE, Toulouse, France: SMREKAR, S., Caltech,
made landfall again at 0800 UTC August 29. After this landfall, it went through Pasadena, CA
the TA. This gave us an opportunity to study the decay of this hurricane based on
seismic data, with supplemental data from the barometers present on the TA as Ionospheric seismology, which was at most seen as an exotic way to record
well. Our basic approach is to analyze seismic amplitude-distance data and pressure- doubtful signals in the early 2000 has gain maturity, especially after the worldwide
distance data for each 6-hour hurricane location. We perform a joint inversion of observations made during the Tohoku 2011 earthquake and tsunami. We focus
seismic and barometric data. We confine our analysis to frequencies below 0.02 Hz here on observations able to provide time depending maps of the ionospheric
because in higher frequency bands ocean waves created the dominant seismic waves. waves, enabling the location of the sources and measurement of the wave
Right after landfall, we found a sharp peak at about 75 km from the eye in both the speed and amplitude, for both acoustic waves above or close the epicenter or
seismic and barometer data. This is most likely the location of the eyewall, where remotely observed Rayleigh and Tsunami waves. We compare and illustrate these
there is a strong ascending flow. Over the next 12 hours, the peak deteriorates, different observation techniques: ground, air-based and space-based GPS and
which is undoubtedly related to the decay of the hurricane after landfall. The peak airglow, focusing on the Tohoku 2011 and Haida Gwai earthquake and tsunamis.
remained at the same location for these 12 hours and then in the following 18 hours We discuss the physics enabling the conversion of seismic waves into electron
started to move farther from the eye, to about 250 km. Therefore, we can monitor perturbation (for GPS data) and light emission (for airglow) and provide the
how the eyewall of Hurricane Isaac deteriorated over the 30 hours after landfall. sensitivity of the signal with respect to local time, ionospheric state and magnetic
latitude which impact both the coupling with the ocean/solid part and the
Shock Wave Velocity for the 2011 Shimoe-dake, Kirishima Eruption of 1 further propagation and attenuation in the atmosphere. We then present the
February 2011 perspectives in term of inversion for both the source location and the remote
MORI, J., Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, observations of tsunami and discuss the limitation of ionospheric seismology for
Japan, mori@eqh.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp; YAMADA, M., Disaster Prevention future near real time measurement of the ocean vertical displacement associated to

on 09 October 2018
tsunami. We conclude by showing the perspective of orbital observation on Venus units. The fracturing process leaves a seismic expression that is responding to a
through full waveform simulation of the 1.27 micrometer airglow perturbation, combination of either Coulombic stress transfer on favourably oriented fractures
and demonstrate that detection threshold of Ms=5.5-6.5 can be achieved at 60◦ of or fluid-induced tensile mechanisms. Both of these end members impose certain
epicentral distances, depending on the performances of the airglow systems. constraints on the stress regime, and in general imply that the stress regime during
the fracturing process involves significant alteration of the background stresses.
Infrasound Techniques for Investigating the Interior Structure of Venus A detailed analysis of microseismic waveforms induced from hydraulic fracturing
STEVENSON, D. J., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, provides the keys to resolving the dynamics of in situ reservoir stresses. Moment
djs@gps.caltech.edu; MIMOUN, D., Institut Supérieur de l’Aéronautique et de tensor inversion, for example, on data recorded from numerous azimuths on
l’Espace, Toulouse, France, david.mimoun@isae.fr; Members of the KISS Venus wellbore-deployed arrays, yields mechanisms that can be used to construct point
Seismology Study Team; CUTTS, J. measures of strain through the stimulations. Furthermore, mechanisms tend to
resolve into mixed-mode, shear-tensile mechanisms occurring on fracture planes.
The formation, evolution and structure of Venus remain a mystery more than fifty The problem of resolving the fracture planes from the mechanisms (each individual
years after the first visit by a robotic spacecraft. Radar images have revealed a surface mechanism equally admits two solutions for the fracture plane), investigated by
that is much younger than those of the Moon, Mercury and Mars as well as a variety many authors, involves determining event clusters and resolving the best-fitting
of enigmatic volcanic and tectonic features quite unlike those generated by plate stress orientation (together with stress ratio) on those clusters. In this study, we
tectonics on Earth. To understand how Venus works as a planet it is necessary to examine the behaviour of mechanisms temporally though a number of stages.
probe the interior of Venus. To accomplish this, seismology must play a key role. Previous efforts have focussed on describing the dynamics of mechanisms as the
Conventional seismology uses sensors in contact with the planetary surface but for event distributions progress into the reservoir, defining breakout events leading the
Venus with current technology, this approach is impractical because of the Venus event cluster that precondition the rock for fluid mobilization later through the
environment (460oC and 90 bars). However, the dense atmosphere of Venus, stimulation. Here, we discuss the clustering of the events to define the rotations in
which efficiently couples seismic energy into the atmosphere as infrasonic waves, stress necessary to activate the different fracture sets to progress the damaged zone
enables an alternative: detection of infrasonic waves in the upper atmosphere using further into the reservoir.
either high altitude balloons or orbiting spacecraft. In June 2014, the Keck Institute
for Space Studies (KISS) at the California Institute of Technology sponsored a one Tracking Fluid-Driven Earthquake Swarms in Long Valley Caldera, California
week workshop with 30 specialists in the key techniques and technologies relevant using Massive Waveform-Based Methods
to investigating Venus’s interior structure. In this paper, we compare and contract SHELLY, D. R., U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, dshelly@usgs.gov;
detection of seismic events on Venus from balloon platforms and orbital spacecraft ELLSWORTH, W. L., U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA,
and discuss the complementary role the two types of observation can play. Finally, ellsworth@usgs.gov; MONTGOMERY-BROWN, E. K., U.S. Geological
we identify key technical issues that need to be solved as well as important precursor Survey, Menlo Park, CA, emontgomery-brown@usgs.gov; HILL, D. P., U.S.
measurements that should be made. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, hill@usgs.gov; PREJEAN, S. G., U.S.
Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, sprejean@usgs.gov; MANGAN, M. T.,
U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, mmangan@usgs.gov
Microseismics in Academia, Government and Industry Earthquake swarms are common in volcanic regions where fluids exsolved from
Oral Session · Thursday · 10:45 AM · 23 April · Ballroom C magma bodies may trigger a sequence of earthquakes as they episodically transit
from ductile surroundings into the brittle crust. Such swarms do not fit mainshock-
Session Chairs: Clifford Thurber, Stephen Wilson and aftershock patterns commonly seen with tectonic seismicity. To enhance our
Giovanni Grasselli view of these swarms, we perform waveform-correlation-based event detection
coupled with double-difference relative location, using catalog events as waveform
What Can Microseismic Tell Us About Hydraulic Fracturing? templates to examine their space-time evolution. This method greatly enhances
MAXWELL, S. C., IMaGE, Calgary, AB, Canada, shawn.maxwell@itasca- the earthquake catalog, providing locations for ˜4 times as many events as in the
image.com routine catalog, with location precision often better than 10 m. During 2014,
an extended swarm sequence occurred in the Long Valley southeast moat, with
Microseismic imaging is an important technology for tracking fracture creation strongly migrating episodes July 7-8 and September 25-26, and lingering activity
and reactivation of pre-existing fractures occurring during hydraulic fracture into early October. These swarms separately activated two subparallel, steeply
treatments of unconventional reservoirs. Often microseismic locations are used dipping fault zones separated by ˜300 m. The July swarm began ˜7.5 km beneath
to interpret the fracture geometry, although additional insights into the fracture the surface, propagated dominantly upward and northward ˜600 m in the first
deformations can also be extracted through source characterization. The resulting 12 hours, and continued sporadically into late July 2014. The September swarm
source deformation investigations provide additional information about the initiated at ˜6 km depth, and propagated both up and down dip, as well as toward
fracturing and are sometimes interpreted as representing the entire spectra the north, in a sequence of events up to M 3.5. In the waning stages of the swarm,
of deformations. Observed microseismicity is typically a shearing mechanism, earthquakes occurred dominantly on the shallow edge of previous activity (˜5 km
although the hydraulic fracturing is generally considered a tensile fracturing depth) and delocalized from a single fault onto multiple diffuse structures. We
process. The timeframe of observed microseismic shear deformations are also tied hypothesize that the migration of hypocenters reflects coupled fluid diffusion and
to the relative high frequency content of the seismic recording equipment and cascading stress transfer, releasing dominantly tectonic stress. During the swarm,
much more rapid than the relative slow and hence aseismic tensile fracture dilation elevated fluid pressure probably triggers event nucleation, while the resultant slip
occurring throughout the injection period. “Dry’ fracture movements can also then greatly enhances permeability. Some of the larger magnitude earthquakes
potentially occur at some distance away from the hydraulic fracture associated likely rupture beyond the zone of enhanced fluid pressure, allowing fluid to rapidly
with pressure and/or stress changes resulting from the fracturing. Geomechanical flow into the rupture zone and resulting in a sudden jump in the seismicity front.
simulations of injections within a discrete fracture network (DFN) can be used
to provide an interpretational framework for both the aseismic and microseismic Seismic Monitoring of the Aaknes Rockslide
modes of deformation. Thus microseismic geomechanical predictions offer a means KÜHN, D., NORSAR, Kjeller, Norway, daniela@norsar.no; FISCHER, T.,
to enhance the conventional interpretation of the geometry of the stimulated Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic, tomfis@ig.cas.cz; ROTH, M.,
fracture network, to examine fracture effectiveness through understanding of the NORSAR, Kjeller, Norway, michael@norsar.no
complete fracture network deformation and propped characteristics. Ultimately
microseismic geomechanics can be used to reconcile the seismicity with the earth Rock avalanches and related tsunamis represent a serious natural hazard in Norway.
structure and injection records. During the 20th century, three major tsunami disasters occurred due to subaerial
rockslides with maximum run-up heights between 40-74 m. Historical records
Resolving Time Dependant Stress Variations Through Analysis of from the last 400 years show that 2-3 catastrophic events take place per century,
Microseismicity (M < 0) Recorded During Hydraulic Fracture Stimulations claiming 250 lives in total (Blikra et al., 2006). We present results of seismic
BAIG, A. M., ESG Canada Inc, Kingston, ON, Canada, adam.baig@ monitoring of the Aaknes unstable rock slope in Norway, one of the most
esgsolutions.com; URBANCIC, T. I., ESG Canada Inc, Kingston, ON, investigated rockslides in the world. The rockslide tsunami hazard and the tsunami
Canada; VON LUNEN, E., NexenCnooc Ltd, Calgary, AB, Canada early warning system are managed by the Aaknes/Tafjord Beredskap IKS. A variety
of measurement and monitoring techniques has been applied to the slope, among
Hydraulic fracturing is a process that involves the injection of fluids above others geophysical, hydrological and geological methods as well as point- and area
lithostatic pressures to increase permeability of rocks at depth. In the oil and gas based displacement monitoring (e.g. Ganerød et al., 2008; Oppikofer et al., 2009;
industry, the formations that are targeted are typically shale or tight sandstone Heincke et al., 2010). In October 2005, a seismic network has been installed

on 09 October 2018
consisting of 8 3-C geophones covering an area of about 250 x 150 m in the complete and operate the system. For example, under legislation passed last year,
upper part of the unstable slope. Thousands of local seismic events are recorded the State of California is exploring models that include both state and private
yearly including rock falls, rock and snow avalanches and slip events. The large funds. Also, $5M was added to the FY15 federal budget specifically for EEW.
complexity of recorded seismograms renders traditional processing in terms of While significant progress is being made, a fully functional public EEW system
arrival time picking and linearized location difficult. In particular, some events are will require substantial new investment and development including upgrading and
recorded on few stations only, many waveforms are missing impulsive onsets, and building new ground motion sensors, hardening data communications, building
the frequency content of the waveforms strongly varies among stations. Instead, we fail-safe computer infrastructure, testing and certifying software, developing
applied an automatic procedure for identifying and classifying local seismic events message distribution paths, and training users in the proper response to warning
and developed a time-reversal method to determine the hypocentre locations that alert.
does not require arrival time measurements. We calibrate the location method
using surface shots and apply it to 9 years of seismic monitoring data. We
find a strong seasonal variability of the rockslide activity and compare it with A P-wave Based, On-site Method for Earthquake Early Warning
rainfall. COLOMBELLI, S., University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy,
simona.colombelli@unina.it; CARUSO, A., University of Naples Federico
II, Naples, Italy; ZOLLO, A., University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy,
Double-Difference Seismic Tomography: Multiple Scales and Joint aldo.zollo@gmail.com; FESTA, G., University of Naples Federico II, Naples,
Inversions Italy; KANAMORI, H., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
ZHANG, H., University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui, hiroo@gps.caltech.edu
China, zhang11@ustc.edu.cn; THURBER, C. H., University of Wisconsin,
Madison, WI, thurber@geology.wisc.edu A new strategy for a P-wave based, on-site earthquake early warning system has
been developed and tested on Japanese strong motion data. The key elements
The original version of the double-difference (DD) tomography code tomoDD are the real-time, continuous measurement of three peak amplitude parameters
was developed for crustal-scale seismic studies. There are many hundreds of and their empirical combination to predict the ensuing peak ground velocity.
applications of tomoDD to crustal-scale problems. In the past decade, it has been The observed parameters are compared to threshold values and converted into a
extended and applied to both larger and smaller scale studies, and approaches for single, dimensionless variable. A local alert level is issued as soon as the empirical
flexible and adaptive model parameterizations have been explored. At larger scales, combination exceeds a given threshold. The performance of the method has
there have been applications to states, entire countries, and subducting slabs. At been evaluated by applying the approach to the catalog of Japanese earthquake
smaller scales, there have been applications to fault zones, volcanoes, geothermal records and counting the relative percentage of successful, missed and false
areas, and oil and gas fields. The most recent development is on solving the alarms. We show that the joint use of three peak amplitude parameters improves
double-difference tomographic system in the wavelet domain. This method takes the performance of the system as compared to the use of a single parameter.
advantage of the sparsity of the velocity model in the wavelet domain and the The proposed methodology provides a more reliable prediction of the expected
multiscale representation property of the wavelet transform. The wavelet-based ground shaking and improves the robustness of a single-station, threshold-based
DD tomography method is both model- and data-adaptive and is able to better earthquake early warning system.
solve the velocity model in the case of uneven ray coverage. For the case of poor
station coverage such as downhole microseismic monitoring where a linear array
of stations is deployed, we develop a back-azimuth constrained DD tomography Joint Seismic-Geodetic Real-Time Finite Fault Models for Earthquake Early
Warning
method that only allows the events to move in their corresponding back-azimuth
directions. For better constraining the subsurface structure, we also combine other MINSON, S. E., U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, sminson@usgs.gov;
data types such as surface-wave dispersion data and magnetotelluric (MT) data BÖSE, M., ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, maren.boese@gmail.com;
with the body-wave arrival times. This is to take advantage of complementary FELIZARDO, C., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
strengths of different data types. The development of this aspect includes joint claude@gps.caltech.edu; HEATON, T. H., California Institute of Technology,
inversion of seismic body-wave arrival time data and MT data as well as joint Pasadena, CA, heaton@caltech.edu; HAUKSSON, E., California Institute of
inversion of seismic body-wave arrival times and surface-wave dispersion data. The Technology, Pasadena, CA, hauksson@caltech.edu
applications to the Parkfield area, California showed the effectiveness of these new
Because seismic and geodetic data observe complementary parts of the earthquake
joint inversion methods.
rupture process, we combine real-time seismic and GPS data streams to constrain
the earthquake centroid, fault orientation, spatial extent of rupture, and determine
a distributed slip model. With this source information we obtain magnitude
estimates that do not saturate for large earthquakes and produce improved shaking
Status and Future of Earthquake Early Warning forecasts relative to other algorithms used for earthquake early warning (EEW) that
Oral Session · Thursday · 1:30 PM · 23 April · Ballroom C instead rely on a point source approximation. Both the fault orientation and spatial
Session Chairs: Sarah Minson and Egill Hauksson, Thomas distribution of slip are determined in real-time as the earthquake rupture evolves
by combining an analysis of the spatial distribution of peak ground acceleration
Heaton from the Finite Fault Rupture Detector (FinDer) algorithm (Böse et al., 2012)
with a geodetic distributed slip model based on the Bayesian Evidence-based Fault
ShakeAlert Progress: Implementing Public Earthquake Early Warning for the Orientation and Real-time Earthquake Slip (BEFORES) algorithm (Minson et al.,
U.S. 2014). By using the FinDer output as the prior probability density for BEFORES,
GIVEN, D., U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA, doug@usgs.gov; West Coast we obtain the joint Bayesian posterior probability distribution. This probability
Earthquake Early Warning Development Team distribution describes the relative probability of all fault geometries and slip models
given the available seismic and geodetic observations. Note that in obtaining this
Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a practical use of earthquake science to reduce joint source model there is no additional computational cost above that of the
injuries, deaths, and property damage by giving people and systems up to a minute component seismic and geodetic analyses. Further, the Bayesian framework that
to take protective actions before the arrival of strong earthquake shaking. The we use to combine seismic and geodetic EEW algorithms could be arbitrarily
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its many partners are working to implement extended to include any other desired analyses of independent data without extra
an EEW system, called ShakeAlert, in the populous areas of the West Coast of computational expense.
the U.S. These partners include the California Office of Emergency Services, the
California Geological Survey, the Moore Foundation, Caltech, UC Berkeley, the Prediction of Ground Shaking from Shaking Itself: Application of Numerical
University of Washington, the University of Oregon, the University of Nevada, Shake Prediction Method for Various Frequency Bands
Reno, ETH Zürich, and private companies. ShakeAlert is built on the extensive HOSHIBA, M., Meteorological Res. Inst., JMA, Tsukuba, Japan, mhoshiba@mri-
monitoring infrastructure of the USGS Advanced National Seismic System. The jma.go.jp; AOKI, S., Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan, saoki@
ShakeAlert demonstration system has been successfully sending notifications to met.kishou.go.jp
test users in California for three years and is progressing toward a production phase
that will allow limited use in fault tolerant applications. Scientific partners are Many of the present Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems quickly determine
testing new algorithms to speed up and improve alerts, use high-precision, real- the hypocenter and magnitude, and then predict strengths of ground motions.
time GPS data, and characterize fault ruptures, including megathrusts, in real- The Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, however, revealed some technical issues with
time. Private partners are co-developing commercial applications. Organizational such methods: under-prediction at large distances due to the large extent of the
partners are developing management and education plans and seeking funding to fault rupture, and over-prediction because the system was confused by multiple

on 09 October 2018
aftershocks that occurred simultaneously. To address these issues, a new concept Optimizing Earthquake Early Warning Alert Lead Times in the Pacific
was proposed for EEW, in which the distribution of the present wavefield Northwest
is estimated precisely in real time (real-time shake mapping) by applying a BODIN, P., University of Washington, Seattle, WA, bodin@uw.edu;
data assimilation technique, and then the future wavefield is predicted time- HOTOVEC-ELLIS, A. J., University of Washington, Seattle, WA,
evolutionally by simulation of seismic wave propagation (Hoshiba and Aoki, ahotovec@uw.edu; HARTOG, J. R., University of Washington, Seattle,
2014). Information on the hypocenter location and magnitude are not necessarily WA, jrhartog@uw.edu; KRESS, V., University of Washington, Seattle, WA,
required in the method; instead physical processes are simulated from the kress@uw.edu; VIDALE, J., University of Washington, Seattle, WA, vidale@
precisely estimated present condition. The method is called “numerical shake uw.edu
prediction” by analogy to “numerical weather prediction” in meteorology. In this
presentation, we will apply the numerical shake prediction method to the 2011 Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) depends on rapid delivery and analysis of
Tohoku Earthquake and the 2004 Mid-Niigata Earthquake (Mw 6.7) for not seismic monitoring data. In addition to low data latency, the speed and accuracy
only frequency band of seismic intensity (that is, around 1 Hz (period of 1 s)) of warnings depends on the specific geometry and scale of the monitoring system
but also for various bands such as around 0.3 Hz (3 s) and 0.15 Hz (6 s). We with respect to the earthquake source and the locale to which the shaking alert is to
will show that low frequency waves were trapped in the Kanto basin while high be delivered. Operators of many regional seismic networks are currently assessing
frequency waves passed by, and that the numerical shake prediction method is the characteristics of warnings the existing networks can provide and determining
applicable even for low frequency of around 0.15 Hz in case of prediction of near where to best invest future resources to achieve desired EEW performance. We
future. present results from simple modeling experiments that reveal the characteristics
and capabilities of an existing or planned seismic network to provide timely
warnings to a site. Our study focuses on the timing of EEW alerts in the Pacific
Towards Real-Time Risk Reduction for Strategic Facilities through Northwest. We examine the effects of seismic network geometry of the Pacific
Earthquake Early Warning: Summary of the REAKT Experience Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN), latency of data delivery and processing, and
CAUZZI, C., Swiss Seismological Service , Zurich, Switzerland, different processing strategies. We find that for earthquakes with regional-scale
carlo.cauzzi@sed.ethz.ch; SOUSA OLIVEIRA, C., Technical University, impacts (i.e., very large) a network solution relying on 4-station detection (ElarmS)
Lisbon, Portugal, csoliv@civil.ist.utl.pt; IERVOLINO, I., University Federico generally provides the greatest lead times, while an On-Site method (single station
II, Naples, Italy, iunio.iervolino@unina.it; EMOLO, A., University Federico at the target site) provides the longest lead times at locations very close to the
II, Naples, italy, antonio.emolo@unina.it; ZOLLO, A., University Federico source. For network solutions and regional events in and near PNSN, minimizing
II, Naples, italy, aldo.zollo@unina.it; ZÜLFIKAR, C., Bogazici University, data delivery latencies generally has greater impact (improvement in lead times
Istanbul, Turkey, can.zulfikar@boun.edu.tr; PITILAKIS, K., Aristotle of ˜5 seconds) than increasing station density, except in a few locations. While
University, Thessaloniki, Greece, kpitilak@civil.auth.gr; VOGFJORD, cabled offshore stations would provide significant improvements in warning times
K., Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavik, Iceland, vogfjord@vedur.is; for megathrust ruptures, a sufficient density of low-latency coastal stations is a
LAI, C., EUCENTRE, Pavia, Italy, carlo.lai@eucentre.it; SOKOS, E., cost-effective and rapidly achievable alternative. Gaps and weaknesses in station
University of Patras, Greece, esokos@upatras.gr; ERDIK, M., KOERI, coverage are revealed and can be combined with a spatial disaggregation of seismic
Istanbul, Turkey, erdik@boun.edu.tr; SAFAK, E., KOERI, Istanbul, source hazard to make a probabilistic assessment of where resources would best be
Turkey, erdal.safak@boun.edu.tr; GASPARINI, P., AMRA, Naples, Italy, invested.
paolo.gasparini@amracenter.com; WIEMER, S., SED-ETHZ, Zurich,
Switzerland, stefan.wiemer@sed.ethz.ch; ZSCHAU, J., GFZ, Potsdam,
Germany, zschau@gfz-potsdam.de; BEHR, Y., SED-ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland, Confirming Earthquakes in Earthquake Early Warning Systems
yannik.behr@sed.ethz.ch; CLINTON, J., SED-ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland, KUYUK, H. S., Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Engineering Institute,
john.clinton@sed.ethz.ch; ESPOSITO, S., University Federico II, Naples, Istanbul, Turkey, serdarkuyuk@gmail.com; COLOMBELLI, S., University
Italy, simona.esposito@unina.it; COLOMBELLI, S., University Federico II, of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy, Naples, Italy; ZOLLO, A., University
Naples, Italy, simona.colombelli@unina.it; PICOZZI, M., University Federico of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy, aldo.zollo@unina.it; ALLEN, R. M.,
II, Naples, Italy, matteo.picozzi@unina.it; KARAPETROU, S., Aristotle University of California, Berkeley, CA, Berkeley, California; ERDIK, M. O.,
University, Thessaloniki, Greece, gkarapet@civil.auth.gr; BINDI, D., GFZ, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Engineering Institute, Istanbul, Turkey,
Potsdam, Germany, bindi@gfz-potsdam.de; ZUCCOLO, E., EUCENTRE, erdik@boun.edu.tr
Pavia, Italy, elisa.zuccolo@eucentre.it; PAROLAI, S., GFZ, Potsdam, Germany,
parolai@gfz-potsdam.de; MIRANDA, N., ITIS Majorana, Somma Vesuviana, Earthquake Early Warning studies are shifting real-time seismology into new
Italy, mirandanicola@gmail.com; FERREIRA, M. (IST, Lisbon, Portugal, directions. They are expedient to rapidly estimate location and magnitude of
monicaf@civil.ist.utl.pt); JONSDOTTIR, K. (IMO, Reykjavik, Iceland, earthquakes. However; filtering false alarms is one of the biggest challenges to cope
kristin.jonsdottir@vedur.is); and the WP7 end-user community. with in the field. Here, we developed a simple, robust, remedy algorithm; Quake
Wave Vibration Report (QwVR); to reduce falsely issued alarms. This is a network-
Within the framework of the EC-funded project REAKT (Strategies and Tools threshold-based algorithm which differs from existing approaches which are based
for Real-Time Earthquake Risk Reduction; FP7/2007-2013, contract no. 282862; on apparent velocity of P and S-waves. QwVR is designed to function as an external
www.reaktproject.eu), a work package was devoted to “Strategic Applications module to help existing earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) and it filters out
and Capacity Building”, i.e. to the use of real-time risk mitigation methods the false events by checking actual motion near epicenter. Our simulations on 2009
for strategic facilities in Europe and worldwide, accompanied by continued L’Aquila and 2012 Emilia earthquakes showed that QwVR successfully helped
dissemination and outreach efforts tailored to stakeholders and end-users. The existing EEWS by confirming the epicenteral intensity. Furthermore, QwVR is
strategic applications included: i) nuclear (Switzerland), hydroelectric (Iceland) able to effectively identify three false events due to a storm, a teleseismic earthquake
and coal (Portugal) power plants; ii) cable stayed (Greece) and suspension bridges and a broken sensor in Irpinia Seismic Network, Italy.
(Turkey); iii) electric power (Iceland) and gas distribution (Portugal, Turkey)
networks; iv) oil refineries (Portugal); v) industrial and touristic harbors (Greece, Use of Smart Phones for Resolving Frequency Content of Artificial Non-
Portugal); vi) railways (Italy); vii) public schools (Italy) and hospitals (Greece). The stationary Synthetic Signal
applications were segregated into feasibility studies, prototype implementation and AKTAS, M., Sakarya University, Sakarya, Turkey, muharrema@sakarya.edu.tr;
implementation efforts, based on the level of maturity expected to be reached KUYUK, H. S., Sakarya University, Sakarya, Turkey, serdarkuyuk@gmail.com
in each application within the project timeline (3 years). Highly innovative in
REAKT was the cooperation of academic experts and end-users throughout the Station density has a crucial effect on earthquake early warning systems (EEWS).
project aimed at defining work plans for feasibility studies and implantation Best seismic networks, in average, have more than 18 km inter-station distance. The
processes. At the end of the project, we present in this contribution the main use of smart phone sensors has a great potential in improving seismic networks.
achievements of the work package, with a special focus on the application of Contribution of smart phones sensors have the potential to provide much more
earthquake early warning for industrial facilities and critical public infrastructures. information in urban areas for EEWS. Apps in smartphones give users to access
We highlight the most successful applications and their key features: a) obvious MEMS sensors and to use them in earthquake detection and also for EEWS.
benefits of real-time risk mitigation actions; b) minor or negligible impact of However; challenges in using them are noteworthy such as unknown goodness
false alarms; c) strong interest of the end-user in collaborating with academic and robustness of data along with high self-noise and low signal to noise ratio.
institutions. We present the difficulties faced throughout the development of Here, the ability of smart phones to identify the frequency content of complex
the work plans and our vision for a future similar project, with emphasis ground motion is tested. In sequence of shake table tests, the responses of three
placed on optimizing the interaction between academia and early warning end- sensors are acquired, by using artificial non-stationary synthetic signal series with
users. a sum of various time varying frequency functions containing sine signals. Smart

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phone sensors are verified with a high and a low cost accelerometers using the shake table test results (Saunders et al., this meeting) indicate that the low-
same ground motions applied on shake-table instantaneously. Comparison of data cost MEMS accelerometers may be interchangeable with the observatory-grade
obtained from smart phones, low-cost accelerometers and high quality Capacitive instruments for these applications. We present an overview of our system and its
Force Micromachined (with 32-bit high resolution, and 120 dB dynamic range) current status.
strong motion sensor are done. Level of instrumental self-noise and frequency
responses are determined with these three sensors. Wavelet analysis is employed
on the response of non-stationary signal to investigate changes in frequency of
the signal. The frequency limits for which mobile phones are successful to detect, Central Coastal California Tectonics
are validated and their potential to capture frequency content of ground motion
is investigated in detail. Although with some limitations, smart phones have the Oral Session · Thursday · 8:30 AM · 23 April · Ballroom F
potential to transform seismology into citizen seismology. Session Chairs: Stuart Nishenko, Neal Driscoll and Janet Watt
myShake - Building Smartphone Seismic Network
KONG, Q., UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, kongqk@berkeley.edu; ALLEN, R., UC Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project: An Overview
NISHENKO, S., Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Francisco, CA,
Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, rallen@berkeley.edu
spn3@pge.com; GREENE, H. G., Moss Landing Marine Labs, Moss Landing,
We are trying to build a smartphone seismic network to work as supplementary CA; O’CONNELL, D. R. H., Fugro Consultants, Inc., Denver, CO; HOGAN,
system to the current earthquake early warning system. To build this network, P., Fugro Consultants, Inc., Ventura, CA; UNRUH, J., Lettis Consultants
we developed the myShake app to collect data, and backend server to store International., Inc., Walnut Creek, CA; ABRAMSONWARD, H., Lettis
the uploaded data from the smartphones. We also did shake table tests to Consultants International., Inc., Walnut Creek, CA; MCLAREN, M. K., Pacific
evaluate the performance of the smartphones as seismic recording instruments. Gas and Electric Company, San Francisco, CA
We conducted noise floor test to find the minimum earthquake signal we can
Pacific Gas and Electric Company’s(PG&E’s) Diablo Canyon Power Plant
record using smartphones. Now we have already built a prototype system of about
(DCPP) is located in central coastal California within a tectonically active region of
70 smartphones running to collect data and send the triggered data back to the
distributed transpressional dextral shear bordering the eastern margin of the Pacific
server in near real time. We are developing the algorithm that will run locally
plate. Between 2010 and 2012, PG&E performed a series of three-dimensional
on the phone based on the uploaded data, and can detect the earthquakes. In
and two-dimensional low-energy and high-energy seismic reflection surveys, along
the future, we can turn each of the smartphone into a seismometer that can
with other geologic and geophysical investigations, to image fault zones near the
quickly detect the earthquake near the epicenter and use this information in
DCPP as recommended in the California Energy Commission’s 2008 document
the earthquake early warning system. This will provide more information into
“An Assessment of California’s Nuclear Power Plants: AB1632 Report”. A three-
the earthquake early warning system, and help the current system make better
component broadband ocean bottom seismometer/accelerometer array was also
decision.
installed offshore of the DCPP in 2013 to increase earthquake detection capability
and provide full waveform recording of events in the offshore area. The studies
conducted as part of the Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project
Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Characterization in the Western U.S.
(CCCSIP) provide new geologic and geophysical data to reduce uncertainty
Using Seismogeodesy
and improve seismic source characterization parameters for the Hosgri, Los
GOLDBERG, D. E., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA,
Osos, San Luis Bay, Oceano and Shoreline fault zones. CCCSIP activities were
ybock@ucsd.edu; BOCK, Y., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La
prioritized with input from the CA Public Utilities Commission Independent Peer
Jolla, CA USA, ybock@ucsd.edu; CLAYTON, R., Caltech, Pasadena, CA,
Review Panel. Prioritization was based on 1] identification of key seismic source
clay@gps.caltech.edu; CROWELL, B. W., University of Washington, Seattle,
parameters that had a significant impact on the probabilistic hazard at the DCPP
WA USA, crowellb@uw.edu; FANG, P., Scripps Institution of Oceanography,
site; and 2] the overall likelihood that information from the proposed surveys
La Jolla, CA USA, pfang@ucsd.edu; GENG, J., Scripps Institution of
would reduce the uncertainty associated with each parameter. Key seismic source
Oceanography, La Jolla, CA USA, jgeng@ucsd.edu; HAASE, J. S., Scripps
parameters considered for investigation included: Hosgri fault zone slip rate and
Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA USA, jhaase@ucsd.edu; MANN,
dip; Shoreline fault zone extent, segmentation, and slip rate; Los Osos fault dip,
D., UNAVCO, Boulder, CO USA, mann@unavco.org; MATTIOLI, G.S.,
sense of slip and slip rate; and joint ruptures of the Hosgri-Shoreline and/or the
UNAVCO, Boulder, CO, gsmattioli@gmail.com; MELGAR, D., University of
Hosgri-San Simeon fault zones.
California, Berkeley, CA, dmelgar@berkeley.edu; MENCIN, D., UNAVCO,
Boulder, CO, dmencin@unavco.org; OFFIELD, D. G., Scripps Institution of
Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, goffield@ucsd.edu; SAUNDERS, J. K., Scripps
Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, jksaunde@ucsd.edu; SQUIBB, M. B., The California Seafloor Mapping Program Documents Active Faults Offshore
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, msquibb@ucsd.edu; WALLS, Central California
C., UNAVCO, Boulder, CO, walls@unavco.org; YU, E., Caltech, Pasadena, JOHNSON, S. Y., U.S. Geological Survey, Santa Cruz, CA, sjohnson@usgs.gov;
CA; eyu@gps.caltech.edu WATT, J. T., U.S. Geological Survey, Santa Cruz, CA
We are developing a prototype system for earthquake early warning, rapid The California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP) is a collaborative effort
earthquake characterization and response, and tsunami prediction in the to develop comprehensive bathymetric, habitat, and geologic maps for all of
western U.S. based on an optimal combination of GPS and accelerometer data California’s State Waters. CSMP began in 2007 when the California Ocean
(“seismogeodesy”). We currently collect and archive 1 Hz data from over 600 Protection Council (OPC) allocated funding for high-resolution bathymetric
GPS stations in California operated by UNAVCO/PBO, USGS, UC Berkeley, mapping, largely to support the California Marine Life Protection Act. Subsequent
Caltrans, and SIO. We have also deployed low-cost SIO MEMS accelerometer support from the OPC, NOAA, USGS, PG&E, and other partners has
packages (sampling at 100 Hz) at 17 PBO and SCIGN stations in southern lead to development of one of the world’s largest seafloor-mapping datasets,
California that span the southern San Andreas fault system and 10 PBO providing essential new information for coastal management, research, and hazard
stations in the Bay Area that span the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. assessment. CSMP work in central California provides a foundation for mapping
The GPS and accelerometer data are inverted using precise point positioning active faults, including the right-lateral Hosgri fault zone. Between Point Sal and
with ambiguity resolution and accelerometer (PPP-ARA) software to estimate Piedras Blancas, new bathymetry, seismic-reflection, and magnetic data document
broadband coseismic displacement and velocity waveforms with a latency of 1-2 the location, length, and continuity of multiple fault strands and the presence of
seconds of data reception. The displacement waveforms and accelerometer data local restraining and releasing fault bends, transpressive uplifts, and extensional
are archived at the Southern California Earthquake Data and can be distributed basins of varying size and morphology. Offshore of Cambria, the Hosgri diverges
in mSEED and SAC formats. Using data from the 2003 Mw 8.3 Tokachi-oki, into western and eastern strands. The eastern strand continues northwest to San
2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah, and 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquakes, Simeon whereas slip on the western strand is transferred to faults underlying the
we have demonstrated that broadband seismogeodetic displacements can be Piedras Blancas fold belt. The eastern strand is crossed by a ˜265-m-wide slope
estimated using observatory-grade accelerometers with sufficient accuracy so that interpreted as the shoreface of a latest Pleistocene sand spit. This sand spit crossed
P wave arrivals can be detected in the near-source for medium size (> Mw an embayment and connected a western fault-bounded peninsula and an eastern
6) earthquakes and greater. Using the seismogeodetic displacement and velocity highland, a paleogeography resembling modern coastal geomorphology along the
waveforms we have demonstrated, through retrospective real-time analysis, rapid San Andreas fault. Detailed geomorphic analysis of the relict shoreface as an offset
magnitude estimation through Pd and PGD scaling relationships, finite-source piercing point indicates a slip rate of 2.6 ± 0.9 mm/yr, considered a minimum
CMT solutions, static and kinematic slip models, and tsunami prediction. Initial rate for the Hosgri given the presence of the active western strand. This slip rate

on 09 October 2018
indicates that the Hosgri system takes up the largest share of the fault budget and is Oceano fault zone and southeast as the main strand to intercept the coast near
the most active strike-slip fault west of the San Andreas fault in central California. the Santa Maria River mouth. The slip rate for this fault zone is estimated to be
less than 0.1 mm/yr., an order of magnitude less than that for the Hosgri Fault
High-resolution Neotectonic Investigation of the San Gregorio Fault Zone, Zone.
Offshore Central California
MAIER, K. L., U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal & Marine Science Center, Stratigraphic Framework of the Central California Shelf for Assessment of
Santa Cruz, CA, kcoble@usgs.gov; PAULL, C. K., Monterey Bay Aquarium Quaternary Activity of Offshore Faults
Research Institute, Moss Landing, CA, paull@mbari.org; BROTHERS, D. ABRAMSONWARD, H., Lettis Consultants International, inc., Walnut
S., U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal & Marine Science Center, Santa Creek, CA, abramsonward@lettisci.com; LEWANDOWSKI, N., Lettis
Cruz, CA, dbrothers@usgs.gov; MCGANN, M., U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Consultants International, inc., Walnut Creek, CA, lewandowski@lettisci.com;
Coastal & Marine Science Center, Menlo Park, CA, mmcgann@usgs.gov; GRAY, B., Lettis Consultants International, inc., Walnut Creek, CA,
CARESS, D. W., Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, bgray@lettisci.com; HANSON, K., Amec Foster Wheeler plc, Oakland,
CA, caress@mbari.org; LUNDSTEN, E. M., Monterey Bay Aquarium Research CA, kathryn.hanson@amecfw.com; GREENE, H. G., Moss Landing Marine
Institute, Moss Landing, CA, eve@mbari.org; ANDERSON, K., Monterey Laboratories, Moss Landing, CA, greene@mlml.calstate.edu; NISHENKO, S.,
Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, CA, krystle@mbari.org; Pacific Gas & Electric Company, San Francisco, CA, SPN3@pge.com
GWIAZDA, R., Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, CA,
rgwiazda@mbari.org Evidence of Quaternary sea-level oscillations is recorded in the stratigraphy of
the continental shelf along the central California coast between Pt. Sal and Pt.
The San Gregorio Fault Zone (SGFZ) is part of the North American–Pacific Piedras Blancas. We analyzed a high-resolution, low energy seismic-reflection
plate boundary and has been inferred to run across Monterey Canyon and dataset of regional 2D profiles and local 3D volumes to develop a regional
through Carmel Canyon. The SGFZ onshore is thought to accommodate up sequence stratigraphic framework. The data provide sub-meter resolution of
to ˜10 mm/yr of relative plate motion at Año Nuevo and up to ˜3 mm/yr Quaternary shelf stratigraphy to depths of 150 m or more below the seafloor. We
south of Carmel. Between these locations, the SGFZ is mapped as following use the seismic/stratigraphic signatures of prominent horizons, and connectivity
steep submarine canyon topography, where no constraints on its recent activity with shore-parallel tie lines to correlate sequence stratigraphic marker horizons
have been available. In this study, we use multibeam bathymetry and chirp sub- throughout the ˜1,300 km2 study area. These horizons provide opportunities to
bottom profiles acquired during 13 dives of Monterey Bay Aquarium Research constrain the ages of buried channels offset by the Hosgri Fault Zone (HFZ) and
Institute’s (MBARI) Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) from 2009-2014 to evaluate the timing, rate, and sense of vertical separation along strands of the
on the northern flank of Monterey Canyon, extending from the shelf edge ˜15 HFZ. A succession of distinctive sedimentary prisms that thin both landward and
km offshore Santa Cruz to ˜1850 m water depth. These high-resolution data seaward and consist of seaward sloping clinoforms beneath the outer continental
provide direct evidence of faulting. Chirp profiles resolve layered sediments up shelf are the remnants of lowstand and highstand/regressive systems tracts. This
to ˜40 m thick, where at least one discrete <2 km long, nearly vertical, NNW- succession includes at least 5 transgressive erosion surfaces, which are identified
oriented fault is identified by offset reflections. However, the offset reflections as angular unconformities overlying clinoform sequences. We interpret the three
record a single deformation event and are only imaged where mass wasting has shallowest unconformities to result from sea-level transgressions following the
exhumed older strata to within ˜25 m of the seafloor. No fault scarps or seafloor MIS 2, 6, and 8 sea-level lowstands, the last three glacial maxima; the age of
lineaments are visible in the 1-m resolution multibeam bathymetry. Slump scars the underlying fourth unconformity is more uncertain. The deepest transgressive
where sediments forming the offset reflections crop out were sampled for dating erosion surface caps an especially thick and wide sedimentary prism we interpret
using MBARI’s Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) Doc Ricketts. Radiocarbon to mark an episode of significant shelf progradation. We speculate that this
dating of foraminifera from horizontal push core samples yield ages >˜30,000 episode of shelf progradation may have occurred during MIS 16, the first extreme
years old, suggesting that this fault has not been active in the Holocene. Numerous lowstand after the Mid Pleistocene Transition from relatively low amplitude sea-
slump scars and packages of chaotic internal reflectivity suggest that submarine level oscillations on a 41-kyr glacial cycle to high amplitude oscillations on a 100-
landslide processes dominate. Plate motion may be transferred eastward towards kyr glacial cycle.
the San Andreas Fault or westward to unmapped faults farther offshore. Detailed
neotectonic investigations using AUV and ROV methods provide new constraints
for fault activity, especially in fault zones that are primarily offshore. Shoreline and Oceano Fault Zones’ Geometry and Slip Rate Constraints, San
Luis Obispo Bay, Offshore South Central Coastal California
HOGAN, P. J., Fugro Consultants, Inc., Ventura, CA, phogan@fugro.com;
Slip Rates for the Hosgri and Shoreline Fault Zones Offshore Coastal Central GREENE, H. G., Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, Moss Landing, CA,
California – Results of High-Resolution 3D Seismic Reflection Surveys greene@mlml.calstate.edu; NISHENKO, S., Pacific Gas and Electric Company,
GREENE, H. G., Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, Moss Landing, CA, San Francisco, CA, SPN3@pge.com; BERGKAMP, B. J., Fugro GeoConsulting,
greene@mlml.calstate.edu; NISHENKO, S., Pacific Gas and Electric Company, Inc., Houston, TX, bbergkamp@fugro.com
San Francisco, CA, SPN3@pge.com; HOGAN, P., Fugro Consultants, Ventura,
CA, PHogan@fugro.com; ABRAMSONWARD, H., Lettis Consultants As part of the Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project, high-resolution
International, Walnut Creek, CA, abramsonward@lettisci.com 3D low energy marine seismic-reflection data were acquired within San Luis
Obispo Bay in 2011 and 2012. Mapping of the sediment-buried bedrock surface
Recent marine high-resolution, low-energy seismic surveys (LESS) were using 2D and 3D data reveals that the trace of the Shoreline fault zone extends
undertaken as part of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company’s seismic hazards southeast across San Luis Obispo Bay to the coast near the Santa Maria River
analyses offshore of the Diablo Canyon Power Plant in central California to mouth, for a total length of ˜45 km. The fault zone bifurcates at Souza Rock,
understand fault activity within the region and improve seismic hazards analyses where one strand trends toward the east-southeast, connecting with the Oceano
for the plant. These data, along with multibeam echoesounder, PG&E legacy, fault zone onshore. Both of these fault strands are crossed by Pleistocene low-
USGS and other geophysical data revealed surface and shallowly buried (10-240 stand paleochannels eroded into bedrock, and are buried by marine and non-
m) structural and geomorphic features not observed before. Processed 2D and 3D marine sediment. Two paleoshorelines developed in Quaternary strata also cross
seismic-reflection profiles and 3D volume attributes provide extremely detailed the Shoreline fault, providing additional high-quality piercing points for measuring
images of faults, stratigraphic horizons and geomorphologic features that are offsets along the fault zone. Possible ages of these features are estimated from
used to estimate offsets and slip-rates along the Hosgri and Shoreline fault zones. Quaternary sea level curves and Pleistocene sequence stratigraphy. The slip rate
Geomorphic piercing points consisting primarily of buried paleo-stream channels, of the Shoreline fault zone as calculated using the paleochannel piercing points
submarine slope channels, and paleo-shorelines (strandlines) were used to assess is estimated to be ˜0.05–0.12 mm/yr. The estimated slip rate generated from
offsets. Sequence stratigraphic units and global sea level curves were used for the paleoshoreline piercing points is ˜0.06 mm/yr. The highest-confidence slip
age control to calculate slip-rates. The results of the LESS studies indicate that rate estimate for the Shoreline fault zone is derived from the two paleostrandline
the Hosgri Fault Zone exhibits areas of transpression and transtension and piercing points. While no evidence for Holocene surface rupture of the Shoreline
locally defines the continental shelf edge in the San Simeon to Point Sal offshore fault was identified, higher resolution (e.g. Chirp) data may be required to image
region. A buried submarine channel in the Point Sal area is offset by the fault recent offsets associated with a low slip rate fault. The estimated slip rate for
and provides the best constrained estimated long term dextral slip-rate of ˜1-3 the Oceano fault (˜0.1 mm/yr.) falls within published slip rate estimates for the
mm/yr. In addition, the relationship of the Shoreline fault zone, including the Oceano fault onshore (0.01–0.20 mm/yr), and is comparable to the estimated slip
Point Buchon fault segments, to the Shoreline seismicity lineament and its total rate of the Shoreline fault southeast of Souza Rock. The uncertainty in seismic
offshore length was mapped. The Shoreline fault zone’s total length is mapped hazard for the Central California Coast Region has now been reduced by improved
at ˜45 km and bifurcates in San Luis Obispo Bay to trend east where it joins the estimates of slip rates on the Shoreline and Oceano fault zones.

on 09 October 2018
3D Subsurface Structural Imaging of the Irish Hills, California, Using Active Signs of a Subtle Near-Coast Shear Strain Rate Gradient Revealed by
Seismic, Gravity, and Magnetic Data Application of New Analysis Methods to the Central California Coast Ranges
OCONNELL, D. R. H., Fugro Consultants, Lakewood, CO, d. GPS Velocity Field
oconnell@fugro.com; TURNER, J., Fugro Consultants, Lakewood, CO, THATCHER, W., U. S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA,
j.turner@fugro.com; GOOODMAN, J., Fugro Consultants, Walnut Creek, thatcher@usgs.gov; MURRAY, J. A., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park,
CA, j.goodman@fugro.com; LAJOIE, L., Fugro Consultants, Lakewood, CO, CA, jamurray@usgs.gov; SIMPSON, R., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park,
lajoie.lia.j@gmail.com; SOWERS, J., Fugro Consultants, Walnut Creek, CA, CA, simpson@usgs.gov
j.sowers@fugro.com; ANGELL, M., Fugro Consultants, Walnut Creek, CA,
m.angell@fugro.com; NISHENKO, S., Pacific Gas and Electric Company, A new GPS velocity field is developed using data from 361 Central California
San Francisco, CA, spn3@pge.com; ZHOU, D., GeoTomo LLC, Houston, Coast Range (CCCR) stations. We corrected observed data for coseismic and
TX, dengguo.zhou@geotomo.com; WANG, W.; ZHANG, J., BROCK, K.; postseismic effects of the 2003 San Simeon and 2004 Parkfield earthquakes,
GeoTomo LLC, Houston, TX, weizhong.wang@geotomo.com? producing velocities most of which have individual uncertainties less than 1
mm/yr. Here we apply a variety of analysis methods aimed at better understanding
22 million first-breaks from 2011-2012 Irish Hills active seismic data were jointly the regional tectonics and its implications for present day deformation and
inverted with gravity data to build 60-m cells of 3D P-wave velocity (Vp) and earthquake hazard in coastal central California. Cluster analysis on a north velocity
density (ρ) to 3 km depth and 15x3m Vp cells <2.5 km from the Diablo Canyon versus east velocity GPS scatter diagram identifies 7 spatially distinct domains lying
Power Plant (DCPP) to 0.3 km depth. Surface mapping, 3D Vp and ρ, and west of the San Andreas Fault (SAF). Three of these domains are elongated NW-SE
magnetic attributes delineate a shallow (<1 km) network of saucer-shaped diabase sub-parallel to the SAF and are due to elastic strain accumulation on the locked San
sills in a 7x4 km region containing the DCPP. The Miocene diabase source conduit Andreas southeast of Parkfield. The remaining 4 domains lie farther west, closer
location inferred from the highest observed Vp (6.4 km/s) and ρ (2.8 g/cc) at to the Pacific coast, and are plausibly related to strain buildup on the offshore
2.5 km depth is 2.5 km SE of Pt. Buchon. Moduli ratios (Vp*Vp*ρ) to ˜3 km Hosgri Fault (HF) and related structures. Spatially smoothing the observed GPS
depth show the south flank of the inverted Pismo syncline basin is 2-4 times stiffer velocities onto a regular latitude/longitude grid provides an alternate means of
than the north side of the basin. The stiffness contrast between north and south searching for subtle gradients in this vector field. The maximum magnitude of
basin sides corresponds to high-Vp and -ρ mafic Franciscan rocks and Miocene the directional derivative (MMDD) provides a useful scalar measure of the vector
diabase intrusions in the south, whereas the north flank is comprised of low-Vp gradients in both velocity magnitude and direction. Contour maps of this quantity
Franciscan clastic rocks to the NW, and low-Vp zones of Franciscan mélange to the in the CCCR show up subtle details not readily apparent in a map of the GPS
N-NE providing compliant pathways for thin-skinned footwall breakout faulting velocity field itself. Results of applying this analysis technique also reveal localized
involving Mesozoic basement during inversion, as observed in depth-migrated deformation close to the Pacific Coast that accord well with those inferred from
2D/3D reflection data. Transpressional basin inversion produced shallow (< 3 cluster analysis. Finally, conventional elastic block modeling guided by the results
km) asymmetric north-flank thin-skinned deformation similar to deformation from cluster analysis and MMDD mapping permits us (albeit non-uniquely) to
observed in a basin-inversion sandbox experiment with a stiff basin flank and a constrain candidate block geometries and estimate block-bounding fault slip rates.
shallow compliant boundary on the opposite side. Prominent vertical faults cross- Bounds on CCCR fault slip rates are thus obtained, although the current absence
cut transpressional folds north and south of the basin in 2D and 3D depth- of offshore GPS sites limits their usefulness for active tectonic
migrated data, similar to 3D offshore faulting in the Pismo Syncline observed in 3D
reflection and bathymetry. Vertical faults coincide with lineaments of near-vertical Preliminary Findings of the Independent Peer Review Panel for Seismic
seismicity (4-12 km depths) including the inferred SE extension of the San Simeon Hazard Studies at Diablo Canyon
fault joining the Los Osos fault at the NE side of the Irish Hills. The Shoreline fault WILLS, C., California Geological Survey, Sacramento, CA, chris.wills@
may left step onshore onto the steeply-north-dipping Irish Canyon fault west of conservation.ca.gov
Pt. San Luis.
Following passage of Assembly Bill 1632 in 2006, the California Energy
Commission recommended that Pacific Gas and Electric Co., owner and operator
Structure of the Irish Hills, California, From Synthesis of Seismic Reflection, of the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant, (PG&E) “use three-dimensional
Geophysical and Geological Data geophysical seismic reflection mapping and other advanced techniques” to
UNRUH, J., Lettis Consultants International, Inc., Walnut Creek, CA, “help resolve uncertainties surrounding the seismic hazard at Diablo Canyon”.
unruh@lettisci.com; GIVLER, R., Lettis Consultants International, Inc., Subsequently, the California Public Utilities Commission established an
Walnut Creek, CA, givler@lettisci.com; GOODMAN, J., Fugro Consultants, Independent Peer Review Panel (IPRP) to review PG&E’s seismic studies
Inc., Walnut Creek, CA, j.goodman@fugro.com; TURNER, J., Fugro including reviewing and commenting on PG&E’s study plans and the findings of
Consultants, Inc., Lakewood, CO, j.turner@fugro.com; O’CONNELL, D., the studies. From the beginning, the focus of the IPRP has been on studies that
Fugro Consultants, Inc., Lakewood, CO, d.oconnell@fugro.com; NISHENKO, will reduce the uncertainty in seismic hazard at Diablo Canyon. Since 2011, the
S., Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Francisco, CA, SPN3@pge.com IPRP has issued a series of reports commenting on PG&E’s study plans and the
results of the studies. As seismic studies were being planned, the IPRP generally
Interpretation of seismic reflection data acquired in the Irish Hills by the Pacific agreed with the scope and targets of studies being proposed by PG&E, but noted
Gas & Electric Company provides new insights into the down-dip geometry challenges to some proposed studies. Although the focus of the studies has been
of previously mapped faults, as well as the subsurface structure of the Pismo on seismic source characterization, the IPRP has also commented on the potential
syncline (the deformed remnant of a Miocene extensional basin). The seismic data for site amplification and studies that might reduce uncertainties in seismic hazard
interpretation was supplemented with analysis of potential field data, petroleum by better understanding site conditions. Following completion of the “Central
exploration well logs, 3-D Vp structure and new geologic mapping of the Irish Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project” report by PG&E in 2014, the IPRP
Hills to develop an internally consistent tectonic model. The northern structural has found that the uncertainty in seismic hazard has been reduced by improved
margin of the ancestral Miocene basin is the Edna fault zone, which consists of estimates of slip rate on the Hosgri and Shoreline faults but that uncertainties
multiple, steeply south-dipping strands that exhibit a right-stepping geometry. in seismic hazard related to faults in the Irish Hills are essentially unchanged.
A previously unrecognized blind strand of the Edna fault zone underlies the Uncertainty in seismic hazards due to site conditions/site amplification is due to
northern limb of the Pismo syncline and accommodated the majority of south- be addressed in an IPRP report in early 2015.
side-down normal displacement of the Mesozoic basement surface during Miocene
extension, consistent with gravity measurements in the Irish Hills. Additionally, a
series of previously unknown, blind north-dipping normal faults are interpreted
beneath the southern limb of the Pismo syncline; these structures are secondary Recent Advances in Understanding the Onshore and
and antithetic to the Edna fault zone. The San Miguelito fault zone in the southern Offshore Southern California Fault System
Irish Hills probably initiated as a steeply north-dipping normal fault along the
southern margin of the Miocene basin, and was rotated to a steeply south-dipping Oral Session · Thursday · 1:30 PM · 23 April · Ballroom F
orientation during Pliocene-Quaternary uplift and folding of the Pismo syncline. Session Chairs: Nate Onderdonk and Robert Francis
The Irish Hills presently are bounded on the north and southeast by the Los Osos
fault and San Luis Bay fault, respectively. These structures are interpreted to be
reverse faults that dip steeply inward toward the central Irish Hills. The surface Holocene Evolution of Carpinteria Marsh, Southern California: Evidence for
trace of the Los Osos fault appears to die out westward; late Cenozoic activity Subsidence
is expressed along the northwestern Irish Hills range front by uplift, tilting and REYNOLDS, L. C., University of California, Santa Barbara, CA,
folding above the blind fault tip. lreynolds@umail.ucsb.edu; SIMMS, A. R., University of California , Santa

on 09 October 2018
Barbara, CA, asimms@geol.ucsb.edu; ROCKWELL, T. K., San Diego State to 18.3 mm/yr and an average slip per event of 2.5 m from two measurements of
University, San Diego, CA, trockwell@mail.sdsu.edu; PETERS, B., San Diego streams offset by 9 to 11 earthquakes in the past 1500 to 2000 years. Faster slip
State University, San Diego, CA, rpeters_geo1@skyhighway.com rates of 21 to 30 mm/yr and a larger average slip per event of 2.7 to 3 m were
determined from measurements of a stream and a buried channel that were offset
Recent marine terrace work indicates that the Ventura Avenue Anticline (VAA) by three earthquakes in the past 400 to 500 years. We infer that the faster slip
and associated Pitas Point thrust fault in the Santa Barbara Channel Region, rate over the past 500 years is due to a cluster of earthquakes along the Claremont
southern California, have produced at least four Holocene uplift events between fault between AD 1400 and AD 1850 and larger than average surface displacement
Ventura and Carpinteria, with a maximum uplift of 7-8m each, implying a of 3 m or more during the third event back. This period of higher displacement
significant earthquake and tsunami risk for the southern California coast. Previous accumulation on the northern San Jacinto fault zone between 200 and 600 years
work has also suggested that Carpinteria Marsh, located on the northern, down- ago may explain the lack of a major ground-rupturing earthquake on the fault in the
going side of the Rincon Creek Fault (RCF), has subsided nearly 1 km during the past 200 years. We suggest that a similar process may be responsible for the longer
Quaternary. What is less clear is whether the nature of this subsidence is slow and than average time since the last ground rupturing earthquake on the southern San
steady or episodic, and to what degree the RCF is linked to motion on the VAA Andreas fault.
and Pitas Point thrust. A comparison between 10 radiocarbon dates obtained from
Carpinteria Marsh and regional records of Holocene relative sea level indicates
Frictional Properties, Slip Rates, and Unknown Faults in the Imperial Valley:
that Carpinteria Marsh has experienced ˜1m/ky of subsidence over the past 7ky.
New Results from High-Resolution Geodesy
A stratigraphy based on 39 vibracores up to 4m in length and 7 Geoprobe cores
LINDSEY, E. O., UC San Diego, La Jolla, CA, elindsey@ucsd.edu; FIALKO, Y.,
up to 13m in length includes a surface 2-4m bmsl where marsh deposits are
UC San Diego, La Jolla, CA, yfialko@ucsd.edu
sharply overlain by marine-influenced estuarine sand. We interpret this surface,
which dates to ˜2.8ka, as a candidate subsidence event. Sharp-bounded marsh We present a suite of geodetic observations showing the pattern of fault creep
surface deposits both over- or under-lying fluvial deposits deeper in the stratigraphy and interseismic deformation in the Imperial Valley, California and northern Baja
possibly indicate other tectonically induced changes in marsh surface elevation at California, Mexico using a combination of multiple InSAR viewing geometries
times when mean sea level was lower and the shoreline was moved basinward. and survey-mode GPS. The dataset is composed of more than 100 survey-mode
An improved chronology including an additional 30 radiocarbon dates will test GPS velocities (Crowell et al., 2013), continuous GPS velocities from the Plate
whether abrupt stratigraphic changes in the marsh stratigraphy are synchronous Boundary Observatory, and Envisat InSAR observations from descending tracks
with uplifted Holocene marine terraces. Future geochemical and microfossil work 84 and 356 and ascending tracks 77 and 306 (149 total acquisitions), processed
will help differentiate between similar stratigraphic changes caused by tectonic, using the Stanford Method for Persistent Scatterers (StaMPS) package (Hooper et
climate, or natural marsh processes, such as changes in sediment supply or mouth al., 2007). The data reveal previously unknown variations in the rate of creep along
closure. the Imperial fault, and suggest that an extension of the Superstition Hills fault
through the town of El Centro may accommodate a significant portion of the slip
Interseismic Strain Accumulation Across Metropolitan Los Angeles: Deep typically attributed to the Imperial Fault. We investigate a suite of possible models
Slilp Along the Puente Hills Thrust for the transfer of slip from the San Jacinto fault system to the north to the Imperial
ARGUS, D. F., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, Donald. and Cerro Prieto faults to the south, yielding a range of plausible hazard scenarios.
F.Argus@jpl.nasa.gov; AGRAM, P., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, We also compare the geodetic data to models of earthquake cycles with rate-
CA, Piyush.Agram@jpl.nasa.gov and state-dependent friction to assess the implications for creep depth, moment
accumulation rate, and recurrence interval of large events on these faults. We show
Pacific–North America plate motion is at a 25◦ convergent angle to the that in addition to interseismic observations, a record of co- and postseismic slip is
Mojave segment of the San Andreas fault, producing the complex tectonics of required to obtain a unique constraint on the frictional properties of the fault.
southern California, as manifested by left slip along the Garlock fault, right
slip across the East California Shear Zone, and contraction perpendicular to New Constraints on Active Fault Architecture in the Inner California
this big restraining segment in the San Andreas fault. Fifteen years of GPS Borderlands, Offshore Southern California
measurements from the Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) are delineating the BORMANN, J. M., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, jbormann@unr.edu;
distribution of shortening across metropolitan Los Angeles. Synthetic Aperture
KENT, G. M., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, gkent@unr.edu; DRISCOLL,
Radar Interferometry (InSAR) is allowing deformation generated by water
N. W., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, ndriscoll@ucsd.edu;
fluctuations to be distinguished from earthquake strain buildup. NNE-SSW
KELL, A. M., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, annie.kell@gmail.com;
shortening is observed to be fastest not immediately south of the San Andreas
SAHAKIAN, V. J., Scripps Institition of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA,
in the San Gabriel Mountains, but instead 50 km south of the fault in northern
vjsahaki@ucsd.edu; HARDING, A. J., Scripps Institition of Oceanography,
metropolitan Los Angeles. The San Gabriel Mountains are contracting at just
La Jolla, CA, aharding@ucsd.edu; HOLMES, J. J., Scripps Institition of
2 mm/yr. The northern half of metropolitan Los Angeles (south of the San
Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, jjholmes@ucsd.edu; KLOTSKO, S. A., Scripps
Gabriel Mountains and north of downtown Los Angeles) is shortening at 4
Institition of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, sklotsko@ucsd.edu; WESNOUSKY,
mm/yr. An elastic model of strain accumulation is fit to the GPS data. Rheological
S. G., Center for Neotectonic Studies, University of Nevada, Reno, NV,
differences between crystalline basement and sedimentary basin are modeled using
wesnousky@unr.edu
EDGRN/EDCMP [Wang et al. 2003]. We find, near downtown Los Angeles and
Pasadena, that: (1) the deep segment of the Sierra Madre thrust is slipping slower In the Inner California Borderlands (ICB), modern dextral strike-slip faulting
than 2 mm/yr, and (2) the deep segment of the Puente Hills thrust fault (and overprints topography formed during plate boundary reorganization 30-15 Ma.
upper Elysian Park thrust) is slipping at 9 ±2 mm/yr beneath a locking depth of 12 Geodetic data indicate ICB faults accommodate 6-8 mm/yr of Pacific-North
±5 km (95% confidence limits). This 9 ±2 mm/yr geodetic slip rate for the deep American plate boundary deformation; however, the hazard posed by ICB faults
Puente Hills thrust system is faster than the 3–5 mm/yr cumulative geologic slip is poorly understood due to unknown fault geometry and loosely constrained slip
rate for the upper Elysian Park, Puente Hills, and [Oskin et al. 2000, Dolan et al. rates. We present observations from new high-resolution and reprocessed legacy
2003, Leon et al. 2009], indicating that M 6.5 and M 7 earthquakes in northern 2D multichannel seismic (MCS) reflection datasets and multibeam bathymetry
metropolitan Los Angeles are more frequent than previously believed and forecast. to constrain the fault architecture and tectonic evolution of the ICB. We use
sequence stratigraphy to identify discrete episodes of deformation in the MCS
Variations in Slip Rate and Size of Pre-Historic Earthquakes During the Past data and present the results of our mapping in a regional fault model that
2000 years on the Northern San Jacinto Fault Zone and Implications for the distinguishes active faults from relict structures. Mounting evidence suggests a
Lack of Major Historic Earthquakes on the Fault westward temporal migration of slip in the ICB. In the eastern ICB, slip on
ONDERDONK, N. W., Long Beach State University, Long Beach, CA, the Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon fault and the Coronado Bank fault (CBF)
nate.onderdonk@csulb.edu; MCGILL, S. F., California State University, San diminishes to the north and appears to decrease over time. Undeformed Pliocene
Bernardino, CA, smcgil@csusb.edu; ROCKWELL, T. K., San Diego State sediments overlie the northern CBF and the breakaway zone of the purported
University, San Diego, CA, trockwell@mail.sdsu.edu Oceanside Blind Thrust. Therefore, CBF slip rate estimates based on linkage with
the Holocene active Palos Verdes fault are unwarranted. Localized deformation
Fault slip rates derived from geodetic data do not always match slip rates derived along the San Mateo, San Onofre, and Carlsbad trends results from geometrical
from geologic data. One possible explanation for this discrepancy is that slip rates complexities in the dextral fault system. In the western ICB, the San Diego Trough
are not always constant through time. Our new calculations of Late-Holocene slip fault (SDTF) and San Clemente fault have robust linear geomorphic expression,
rate and average slip per event from the Claremont fault of the northern San Jacinto which suggests that these faults may accommodate a significant portion of modern
fault zone show variations over the past 2000 years. We calculate a slip rate of 12.8 ICB slip. The SDTF offsets young sediments between the US/Mexico border and

on 09 October 2018
the eastern margin of Avalon Knoll, where the fault is spatially coincident and Shear Zone Evolution Within a Widening Rift System: San Pedro Basin fault
potentially linked with the San Pedro Basin fault. We are reprocessing additional – San Diego Trough fault, Offshore Southern California
legacy MCS data to expand our seismic coverage to include faults in the San Pedro, FRANCIS, R. D., California State University, Long Beach, CA, Robert.
Catalina, and San Nicholas basins. Francis@csulb.edu; LEGG, M. R., Legg Geophysical, Inc., Huntington Beach,
CA, mrlegg@verizon.net; CASTILLO, C. M., Stanford University, Stanford,
High-Resolution Mapping of Two Large-Scale Transpressional Fault Zones in CA, chriscastillo101@gmail.com
the California Continental Borderland: Santa Cruz-Catalina Ridge and Ferrelo
Seismic reflection and multibeam bathymetry data establish the San Pedro Basin
LEGG, M. R., Legg Geophysical, Inc., Huntington Beach, CA, mrlegg@
fault – San Diego Trough fault (SPBF-SDTF) as a major shear zone in the
verizon.net; KOHLER, M. D., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena,
Inner California Continental Borderland, stretching 350 km from the Western
CA, kohler@caltech.edu; SHINTAKU, N., Brown University, Providence,
Transverse Ranges to near Punta Banda in Baja California. Although parts of this
RI; WEERARATNE, D. S., California State University, Northridge, CA,
shear zone may have existed since middle Miocene time, integration of the total
dsw@csun.edu
system occurred at about 1 Ma; previously, slip on the SDTF was transferred to
New mapping of two active transpressional fault zones in the California the Catalina fault forming the Catalina Ridge restraining bend uplift. Seafloor
Continental Borderland, the Santa Cruz-Catalina Ridge fault and the Ferrelo fault, terraces around Santa Catalina Island and flat-lying sediment sequences in adjacent
was carried out to characterize their geometries, using over 4500 line-km of new San Pedro Basin indicate that uplift of Catalina Ridge slowed or stopped due to
multibeam bathymetry data collected in 2010 combined with existing data. Faults abandonment of the Catalina fault and establishment of the SPBF-SDTF system.
identified from seafloor morphology were verified in the subsurface using existing San Pedro Basin, which is transected by the youthful SPBF, is a remnant of a larger
Borderland seismic reflection data including single-channel and multi-channel proto-basin that formed within the northern Inner Borderland (IB) rift. Middle
seismic profiles compiled over the past three decades. The two fault systems are Miocene strata on Santa Catalina Island and Palos Verdes Peninsula correlate with
parallel and are capable of large lateral offsets and reverse-slip during earthquake deep sediments in San Pedro Basin, suggesting that the proto-basin included these
faulting. The geometry of the fault systems shows evidence of multiple segments now uplifted areas. Restoration along faults and back-rotation of the Western
that could experience through-going rupture over distances exceeding 100 km. Transverse Ranges show that most of the 19-10 Ma volcanism of coastal southern
Published earthquake hypocenters from regional seismicity studies further define California formed chains along the axis of the IB rift, aligned with the proto-basin.
the lateral and depth extent of the historic fault ruptures. Historical and recent Subdivision of the proto-basin into smaller basins such as San Pedro Basin resulted
focal mechanisms obtained from first-motion and moment tensor studies confirm from structural inversion along restraining segments of developing major shear
regional strain partitioning dominated by right-slip on major through-going faults zones. Events such as a clockwise shift in the plate motion vector at about 8 Ma
with reverse-oblique mechanisms on adjacent structures. The two systems resemble and the shift of the transform margin inland at 6 Ma could have contributed to
onshore active fault zones and provide additional information for understanding inversion in places like the Catalina fault restraining segment. Increased shortening
the full Pacific-North America plate boundary evolution, as well as transpressional associated with the big bend of the San Andreas fault, and related uplift of the
fault systems along the plate boundary. Because of their potential for dip- Transverse Ranges could have resulted in increasing depositional rates that formed
slip rupture, they may also be capable of generating local tsunamis that would the thick post 1 Ma sediments of San Pedro Basin.
impact southern California coastlines, including populated regions in the Channel
Islands.
The Palos Verdes Fault Offshore Southern California: Late-Pleistocene
to Present Tectonic Geomorphology, Seascape Evolution and Slip-Rate
Imaging the Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon Fault Zone; Implications with Estimate Based on Auv and Rov Surveys
Current Fault Models BROTHERS, D. S., USGS, Santa Cruz, CA, dbrothers@usgs.gov; CONRAD, J.
SAHAKIAN, V. J., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, E., USGS, Santa Cruz, CA; MAIER, K. L., USGS, Santa Cruz, CA; PAUL, C. K.,
vjsahaki@ucsd.edu; BORMANN, J. M., University of Nevada, Reno, MBARI, Moss Landing, CA; MCGANN, M., USGS, Menlo Park, CA; CARESS,
NV, jaynebormann@gmail.com; KLOTSKO, S. A., Scripps Institution of D. W., MBARI, Moss Landing, CA
Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, sklotsko@ucsd.edu; HOLMES, J. J., Scripps
Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, jjholmes@ucsd.edu; DRISCOLL, The Palos Verdes Fault (PVF) is one of few active faults in Southern California
N. W., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, ndriscoll@ucsd.edu; that crosses the shoreline and can be studied using both terrestrial and
HARDING, A. J., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, aharding@ submarine methodologies. To characterize the near seafloor fault morphology,
ucsd.edu; KENT, G. M., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, gkent@unr.edu; Late Pleistocene–Holocene slip-rate and tectonic influences on continental slope
WESNOUSKY, S. G., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, wesnousky@unr.edu sedimentary processes, a grid of high-resolution multibeam bathymetry and chirp
sub-bottom profiles were acquired with MBARI’s Autonomous Underwater
Faults offshore Southern California accommodate ˜10% of the Pacific/North Vehicle (AUV) along the main trace of PVF in water depths between 250 and
American plate boundary deformation, yet they are a poorly understood 600 m. Radiocarbon dates of stratigraphic horizons offset by the PVF were
component of the region’s active-faulting system. The Newport-Inglewood/Rose obtained from vibracore samples collected using MBARI’s Remotely Operated
Canyon (NI/RC) fault is an approximately 90 km-long right-lateral strike-slip Vehicle (ROV) and ship-based gravity cores. The PVF is expressed as a well-
fault, and is the easternmost fault in this offshore system. Onshore trenching defined seafloor lineation marked by subtle along-strike bends associated with
studies estimate that the NI/RC fault accommodates 0.5 – 2 mm/yr of the transtensional and transpressional deformation, which exert first-order control
region’s slip budget. Our active-source marine seismic study indicates that the on the spatial distribution of Holocene depocenters. Deformed strata within a
fault has the potential to generate an event of Mw 7.4, based on magnitude-length small transtensional sag basin record evidence for punctuated growth faulting,
scaling relationships and estimates of seismic moment. Until late, little was known suggesting the PVF experienced at least three Holocene surface ruptures. An
about important fault plane characteristics such as strike, dip, and segmentation. upper (shallower) landslide scarp, a buried sedimentary mound, and a lower scarp
These characteristics strongly affect earthquake ground motion predictions and have been right-laterally offset across the PVF by 55±4, 42±8 and 55±4 m,
contribute to uncertainty in regional seismic hazard models. We present new respectively. The ages of the shallow scarp and buried mound are approximately
constraints on fault plane characteristics for the NI/RC fault. Our investigation 31 ka; the age of the deeper scarp is bracketed at 17–24 ka. Combined, these
combines a number of datasets including: new and existing multibeam bathymetry, three piercing points yield an average Late Pleistocene–Present slip-rate of 1.4–
CHIRP, reprocessed multi-channel seismic (MCS) data from Chevron (1979) 2.9 mm/yr, with a best estimate of 1.6–1.9 mm/yr. In summary, the deformation
and the USGS (2006), and newly acquired high-resolution sparker MCS data. patterns observed along the PVF are characteristic of a strike-slip fault and account
This nested view of varying depth resolutions allows us to identify variations in for approximately 20–30% of the total slip-budget accommodated by faults in the
fault strike, dip, segmentation, and changes in the deformation patterns through California Continental Borderlands.
time. We find that progressing northwards, the most recent deformation becomes
older on the NI/RC, and variations in fault dip are often located at releasing or
restraining bends along the fault. We identify three main fault segments, all of Quaternary Subsidence and Active Tectonics, Insights from the Submerged
which are separated by stepovers of less than 3 km. Empirical datasets suggest it Marine Terraces Surrounding Santa Catalina Island
may be possible to rupture all segments in a single event. Finally, we compare our CASTILLO, C. M., Stanford Universty, Stanford, CA, chriscastillo101@
results with current fault models that are employed for hazard assessment for Los stanford.edu; KLEMPERER, S. L., Stanford University, Stanford, CA,
Angeles and San Diego counties. sklemp@stanford.edu; FRANCIS, R. D., CSU Long Beach, Long Beach,

on 09 October 2018
CA, Robert.Francis@csulb.edu; LEGG, M. R., Legg Geophysical, Huntington S. H., Weston Geophysical, Weston, MA USA, hoonthhoonth@gmail.
Beach, CA, mrlegg@verizon.net com
The use of submerged paleoshorelines to constrain late Quaternary slip rates is There are many engineering applications that require an understanding of
important for constructing tectonic evolution of continental margins, including the nature of strong ground motions adjacent to and spanning across faults.
the anastamosing San Andreas fault system in southern California, as well as Unfortunately, such near-field observations at distances less than 100 m of fault
for seismogenic tsunami hazard analysis in coastal communities. Submerged rupture are few and incomplete. Motivated by the analysis of bridges that cross
paleoshorelines surrounding Santa Catalina Island in the Southern California faults, we examine the nature of near-fault strong ground motion and static
Continental Borderland require late Quaternary subsidence. We have combined deformation using a 3D finite-difference method. We simulate strong ground
high-resolution seismic reflection profiles surrounding Catalina Island with motions for a hypothetical Mw 6.5 earthquake at sites within a few tens of meters of
geomorphic analysis of high-resolution bathymetry to map faults, landslides and the fault to document the nature of strong ground motion at pairs of sites across the
subsided marine terraces at 32 – 362 m depth. The depth distribution of these fault as a first step toward providing ground-motion input for engineering design
submerged terraces correlates with sea-level lowstands on an ice-volume equivalent applications. We employ several distributed slip kinematic models to examine
eustatic sea-level curve using approximately uniform Pleistocene subsidence rates. ground-motion variability. We also examine the ground motions for fault scenarios
The presence of terraces at depths of >350 m indicates that Catalina Island has ranging from vertical strike-slip to low-angle thrust faulting. The results show
subsided ˜ 220 m since the formation of its deepest terraces. The most plausible that the motions have two primary components: (1) far-field waves that undergo
correlation of terraces with sea-level still-stands is achieved using a time-integrated focusing and amplification due to finite-source rupture directivity and (2) near-
mean subsidence rate of 0.3 mm/yr over the last 355 ka, similar to decadal rates field waves that are sensitive to the tectonic rebound, or fling, of the closest section
from GPS stations on the island. Catalina’s terraces require radiometric dating or of the fault to the recording stations. Static deformation is strongly dependent on
paleontological analysis to assign ages with greater confidence. Once age control the depth to the top of rupture and can lead to a strong gradient in strain that can
is attained, Catalina’s terraces provide constraints on the slip history of faults affect long-baseline structures such as bridges and pipelines. Both the far-field and
surrounding Catalina Island. near-field controlled motions result in nonstationary pulse-like velocity waveforms
that have many implications for the design of engineered structures located close to
or spanning faults.
Numerical and Physical Modelling of Fault Rupture Propagation through Soil

Characterizing the Potential Impacts of Surface Fault and Interaction with Foundation-Structure Systems
Rupture on Transportation Systems ANASTASOPOULOS, I., University of Dundee, Dundee, UK, i.
anastasopoulos@dundee.ac.uk; GAZETAS, G., National Technical University
Oral Session · Thursday · 8:30 AM · 23 April · Ballroom G of Athens, Athens, Greece
Session Chairs: Zia Zafir, Jonathan Bray and James Gingery
In a seismic event, the rupture of a seismic fault generates two types of ground
displacement: permanent quasi-static offsets on the fault itself, and transient
Towards the Development of Design Curves for Characterising Strike-Slip dynamic oscillations away from the fault. The latter typically affect larger areas
Surface Fault Rupture Displacement: An Example from the 2010 Greendale and are thus of prime significance for the safety of infrastructures. In contrast,
Fault Rupture, New Zealand the permanent offset of a seismic fault affects the ground surface only in some
VAN DISSEN, R. J., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, r.vandissen@ cases, when the rupture extends all the way to the ground surface (or close to it).
gns.cri.nz; HORNBLOW, S., University of Canterbury, Christchurch, Naturally, therefore, earthquake engineering research and practice has emphasized
New Zealand, sharon.hornblow@pg.canterbury.ac.nz; LITCHFIELD, on the dynamic response of soil–structure systems to ground oscillations, with
N., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, n.litchfield@gns.cri.nz; less effort being devoted to the effects of faulting. Due to this lack of knowledge,
QUIGLEY, M., University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand, seismic codes had in the past invariably demanded that “buildings and important
mark.quigley@canterbury.ac.nz; VILLAMOR, P., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, structures not be erected in the immediate vicinity of active faults”. However, such
New Zealand, p.villamor@gns.cri.nz; NICOL, A., GNS Science, Lower Hutt, a strict prohibition is difficult (and sometimes meaningless) to obey, especially
New Zealand, a.nicol@gns.cri.nz; BARRELL, D. J. A., GNS Science, Dunedin, for long structures, such as bridges and tunnels. Thus, modern Seismic Codes do
New Zealand, d.barrell@gns.cri.nz not prohibit building in the vicinity of active faults, but only after special studies
have been conducted. Until recently there was no specific method to conduct such
Ground-surface rupture of the Greendale Fault during the 2010 Mw 7.1 Darfield special design studies. To bridge the apparent gap of knowledge, recent integrated
earthquake extended for c. 30 km across gravel-dominated alluvial plains west research efforts combining field studies (in Turkey and Taiwan), centrifuge and
of Christchurch, New Zealand. Surface rupture was predominantly dextral 1g experiments, and numerical simulations have culminated in the development of
strike-slip (max. offset 5.3 m), comprised a series of left-stepping traces, and a thoroughly validated methodology for the analysis and design of infrastructure
displaced many linear cultural features (e.g. roads, fences) which provided ideal against seismic faulting. The lecture will present: (a) analytical and experimental
markers for quantifying the amounts and patterns of surface rupture deformation. (centrifuge and 1-g model test) results referring to fault rupture propagation
Perpendicular to fault strike, dextral displacement was distributed across a c. 30 through soil and its interaction shallow, piled, and caisson foundations; and (b)
to 300 m wide deformation zone, largely as horizontal flexure, with the width of applications of the developed methods in a number of important projects, built in
the deformation zone greatest at step-overs. Slip on discrete shears, where present, regions of high–seismicity (bridges, cut-and-cover tunnels, and buildings).
accounted for less than about a third of the total displacement. Even where the
surface rupture deformation zone comprised a single trace, significant deformation Addressing Fault Rupture Hazard for Bridges across California
occurred over a width of c. 30-40 m. Across the central part of step-overs, dextral SOJOURNER, A., Caltrans Office of Geotechnical Design , Oakland,
deformation was distributed over a wider zone and equally shared across both
CA, anna.sojourner@dot.ca.gov; OSTROM, T. A., Caltrans Office of
sides of the step-over. Across the beginnings/endings of step-overs the dominant
Earthquake Engineering, Sacramento, CA, tom.ostrom@dot.ca.gov; SHANTZ,
side of the step-over typically carried about 2-3 times more displacement than
T. J., Caltrans Division of Research and Innovation, Sacramento, CA,
the subordinate side. Two trenches (10 and 30 m long) were excavated across
tom.shantz@dot.ca.gov; YASHINSKY, M., Caltrans Office of Earthquake
the zone of maximum horizontal displacement at locations where total dextral
Engineering, Sacramento, CA
displacement is c. 4.5 m. At both sites, 2-3 discrete Riedel shears were present,
each with a maximum dextral offset of c. 60 cm. Although the discrete shears were In response to recent improvements in ground motion prediction equations, source
visible in the trenches, the bulk of the displacement - expressed as horizontal flexure models, and improvements in the understanding of bridge behavior, Caltrans
at the ground surface - was not discernible in the trenches. Documentation of has embarked on an ambitious effort to re-screen its more than 13,000-bridge
ground-surface deformation arising from Greendale Fault rupture has been used to inventory for vulnerability to geologic hazards. The hazards considered in this
formulate provisional design curves for characterising distributed strike-slip surface screening include strong shaking, liquefaction, and fault rupture. This presentation
fault rupture displacement, and have utility for developing mitigation strategies will focus on fault rupture screening. Both deterministic and probabilistic fault
aimed at reducing the damage caused by fault rupture. offset estimates are used in the screening. The deterministic estimate is based on
Wells and Coppersmith (1994) and the probabilistic estimate, using a 975-year
Very Near-Fault Strong Ground Motions hazard level, is based on a simplified procedure by Abrahamson (2006). To assess
DREGER, D. S., UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, ddreger@berkeley.edu; potential surface rupture with distance to mapped faults, a probabilistic model
CHOPRA, A. K., UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, chopra@berkeley.edu; YOO, is used, based on the work of Petersen et al. (2008). We identified 256 bridges

on 09 October 2018
within Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones or near un-zoned faults capable seems highly preferable to existing EC8 building code provisions. Concerning
of surface rupture. For each of these bridges, Caltrans geologists evaluated fault underground topography, experimental data from dedicated dense arrays confirm
expression and location with respect to the bridge, and calculated the potential on- the dominance and stability of locally scattered surface waves in the seismic
and off-fault displacement. Of the 256 bridges near active faults, 131 bridges had wavefield: they control the 2D/3D overamplification and the structure of the
deterministic or probabilistic potential offsets of more than 4 inches (and up to 25 ground motion coherency over short distances. In parallel, numerical simulation
feet). Successes and limitations of the geologic work will be presented, along with tools were used to derive "aggravation factors" (AGF) quantifying the difference
preliminary inventory-wide screening results. between 2D basin response and the 1D response, on the basis of a comprehensive
parametric study of the seismic response of more than 1000 2D valleys
Characterization and Mitigation of Surface Fault Rupture Hazard for a Light spanning a wide range of realistic geomechanical characteristics. The 2D/1D
Rail Project AGF were computed for various ground motion intensity parameters, and their
GINGERY, J. R., Kleinfelder, Inc., San Diego, CA USA, jgingery@ dependency to geometrical characteristics investigated through a neural network
approach
kleinfelder.com; RUGG, S. H., Kleinfelder, Inc., San Diego, CA,
srugg@kleinfelder.com; BRAY, J. D., University of California, Berkeley,
CA, jonbray@berkeley.edu; ROCKWELL, T. K., San Diego State University, A Numerical Study of the Source-Related Variability of Site Effect in the
San Diego, CA, trockwell@mail.sdsu.edu; ZAFIR, Z., Kleinfelder, Inc., Mygdonian Basin, Greece
Sacramento, CA, zzafir@kleinfelder.com MAUFROY, E., ISTerre, Grenoble, France, emeline.maufroy@ujf-grenoble.fr;
CHALJUB, E., ISTerre, Grenoble, France, emmanuel.chaljub@ujf-grenoble.fr;
An overview of the surface fault rupture hazard characterization and mitigation HOLLENDER, F., CEA, Cadarache, France, fabrice.hollender@cea.fr;
for a proposed light rail project in southern California is presented. Preliminary BARD, P. Y., ISTerre, Grenoble, France, pierre-yves.bard@ujf-grenoble.fr; DE
evaluation of existing maps and vintage aerial photography distinguished several MARTIN, F., BRGM, Orléans, France, f.demartin@brgm.fr; ROUMELIOTI,
alignment locations likely crossed by active faults. Extensive field investigations Z., Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece, zroum@auth.gr;
were performed at key locations including exploratory trenches, geophysical THEODOULIDIS, N., ITSAK, Thessaloniki, Greece, ntheo@itsak.gr
surveys, continuous core borings, cone penetrometer testing and geologic mapping.
Surface fault rupture displacement estimates were developed for design using We present the results of a numerical analysis investigating the variability of the site
deterministic and probabilistic methods, and several design scenarios were amplification caused by 3D source-site interactions, focusing on the Mygdonian
developed to bracket uncertainties in location, distribution and sense of slip. The basin, Greece. The 3D numerical simulations include a realistic 3D heterogeneous
presentation focuses on one location where the active fault intersects a proposed model of the basin, topography and intrinsic attenuation, and are performed with
bridge site. This case is unusual in that the fault strike is nearly parallel to the the Spectral Element Method allowing numerical accuracy up to 4 Hz for a lowest
bridge axis, rather than the more common case where the bridge is laid out such S-velocity of 137 m/s. The basin response is computed for a circular setting of
that the fault passes beneath a bridge span between foundation supports. Right- 1260 point sources with epicentral distances ranging 2.5-30 km and depth 1-
of-way restrictions preclude relocation of the bridge away from the fault. With 15 km. The full range of possible back azimuths is spanned over 360◦ . The
these conditions, the fault rupture could pass through the bridge foundations. focal mechanisms are randomly generated to match the typical normal-faulting
Three dimensional numerical modeling was performed of the fault-soil-structure mechanisms encountered around the area. A few (5) of these sources correspond
interaction to gain insight into the foundation performance. The modeling to real earthquakes actually recorded by the existing instrumentation; the basin
results were used to develop a robust bridge design that accommodates the fault response is also computed for 125 hypocenter locations shifted by +/- 1 or 2 km in
displacement without collapse. the 3D space around the original hypocenter, to investigate the robustness of the
site-effect estimation for weak uncertainties in the hypocenter. The amplification
logically appears more sensitive to hypocenter uncertainty when the source is
closer to the receiver, but our results also demonstrate an equally high sensitivity
when the source is more distant (20 km) but very shallow (5 km), even for a
Capturing Site Effects in Strong Ground Motion slight variation (< 2 km) in the hypocenter. The level of variability reached for
Oral Session · Thursday · 10:45 AM · 23 April · Ballroom G that large amount of sources is quantified for both absolute values of ground
Session Chairs: Domniki Asimaki, Adrian Rodriguez-Marek, motion (including duration) and relative measures of the site amplification. Rock
sites do present a high variability of the ground motion; the respective influences
Jonathan Stewart and Alan Yong of topography and of basin proximity are investigated. Over the sediments, no
clear tendency appears with source distance or depth, the back azimuth being
Effects of Surface and Underground Topography on Ground Motion : an the key parameter to map the frequency-dependent variability of the basin
Overview of Some Recent European Collaborative Results response.
BARD, P. Y., ISTerre, Université de Grenoble, Grenoble, France,
pierre-yves.bard@ujf-grenoble.fr; CULTRERA, G., INGV, Roma, Italy, Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratios (HVR) for Microtremors and
giovanna.cultrera@ingv.it; THEODOULIDIS, N., ITSAK-EPPO, Earthquake Motions: Diffuse Field Interpretation of the Ratios of HVR
Thessaloniki, Greece, ntheo@itsak.gr; PITILAKIS, K., LSMFGEE, AUTH, KAWASE, H., Kyoto Univ., Uji, Kyoto, Japan, kawase@zeisei.dpri.kyoto-
Thessaloniki, Greece, kpitilak@civil.auth.gr; FAEH, D., SED, ETH Zürich, u.ac.jp; MORI, Y., Kyoto Univ., Uji, Kyoto, Japan, mori@zeisei.dpri.kyoto-
Zürich, Switzerland, donat.faeh@sed.ethz.ch; PAROLAIAP, S., GFZ Potsdam, u.ac.jp; MATSUSHIMA, S., Kyoto Univ., Uji, Kyoto, Japan,
Potsdam, Germany, parolai@gfz-potsdam.de; MOCZO, P., Comenius University matsushima@zeisei.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp; NAGASHIMA, F., Kyoto Univ.,
of Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia, moczo@fmph.uniba.sk; EXTENDED NERA Uji, Kyoto, Japan, nagashima@zeisei.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp; SÁNCHEZ-SESMA,
WP11 team : C. Cornou, E. Chaljub, A. Imtiaz, A. Rovelli, P. Bordoni, F. Cara, F. J., UNAM, Mexico City, Mexico, sesma@unam.mx
G. DiGiulio, G. Milana, V. Pessina, M. Pisciutta, A. Savvaidis, K. Makra, E. Riga,
F. Gelagoti, J. Burjanek, C. Cauzzi, T. Boxberger, J. Kristek, F. Hollender, C. The Horizontal-to-Vertical spectral ratios of microtremors have been traditionally
Guyonnet-Benaize, A. Stambouli, D. Zendagui and B. Derras interpreted theoretically as representing the Rayleigh wave ellipticity or just utilized
as a convenient tool to extract predominant periods of ground. However, based on
The effects of surface and subsurface geometry on seismic ground motion have the diffuse field theory (Sánchez-Sesma et al., 2011) microtremor HVRs (MHVRs)
been extensively investigated for several decades. Yet, their complexity made it correspond to the square root of the ratio of the imaginary part of horizontal
very difficult, till now, to include them in routine earthquake mitigation and risk displacement for a horizontally applied unit harmonic load and the corresponding
reduction policies. The presentation will briefly outline the main results obtained one in the vertical direction. On the other hand, earthquake HVRs (EHVRs)
within the framework of the NERA European project to propose physically sound, have been traditionally interpreted theoretically as representing 1D response for
economically acceptable and simple enough models for including proper account inclined incidence of SV waves. However, the same diffuse field concept leads us
of effects of surface and subsurface geometry in building codes or microzonation to derive a simple formula for EHVRs, that is, the ratio of the horizontal motion
studies. Some of these results are detailed in other SSA2015 abstracts. Concerning for a vertical incidence of S wave and the vertical correspondent of P wave (Kawase
surface topography effects, the main conclusion from the review of available results et al., 2011). The difference of EHVRs from MHVRs comes from the fact that
and homogeneous analysis of several tens of Italian, Swiss, and Japanese sites, is primary contribution of microtremor and earthquake motions would be of surface
that large amplification on elevated sites are systematically associated with large wave and plane body waves, respectively. We have compared EHVRs and MHVRs
directional effects on both earthquake and noise recordings, and controlled by at a dozen of strong motion stations in Japan. When we compared observed ones
combination of topography with pronounced local, shallow heterogeneities. A site- we found that EHVRs tend to be larger in general than the MHVRs, especially in
specific procedure has been proposed to detect and quantify such effects, and the frequencies higher than the fundamental peak frequency. When we compared

on 09 October 2018
theoretical ones at these target sites, we found similar difference between EHVRs identified surface wave type, group velocities estimated from the ground velocity
and MHVRs. Then we calculated the ratios of EHVRs with respect to MHVR structure and site amplification (Standard Spectral Ratio, SSR). For both arrays,
(EMR) both for observed data and theoretical ones as a function of the normalized amplification observed between 1 and 2.5 Hz, 3 and 6 Hz frequencies could be
frequency, the frequency divided by the fundamental peak frequency at each site. associated, respectively, with the diffracted Love and Rayleigh waves.
When we calculated the average of the EMRs we get empirical and theoretical
methods to translate MHVR into pseudo EHVR, which can be used to derive an
S-wave velocity structure at the site from the bedrock to the surface as was the real The Influence of Hard Rock Depth on Nonlinear Site Response Analysis in the
EHVRs utilization (Nagashima et al., 2014). Eastern United States
HARMON, J., University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, harmon4@illinois.edu;
HASHASH, Y. M. A., University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, hashash@illinois.edu;
Understanding, Parameterization and Simulation of Three-Dimensional NIKOLAOU, S., Mueser Rutledge Consulting Engineers, New York, NY,
Topography Effects snikolaou@mrce.com; PEHLIVAN, M., Mueser Rutledge Consulting Engineers,
JEONG, S., University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand, seokho. New York, NY, mpehlivan@mrce.com; STEWART, J. P., University of
jeong@canterbury.ac.nz; MOHAMMADI, K., Georgia Tech, Atlanta, California, Los Angeles, CA, jstewart@seas.ucla.edu; RATHJE, E. M.,
GA, kamimohamadi@gatech.edu; ASIMAKI, D., Caltech, Pasadena, CA, University of Texas, Austin, TX, e.rathje@mail.utexas.edu; CAMPBELL, K.
domniki@caltech.edu W., EQECat, Beaverton, OR, kcampbell@eqecat.com; SILVA, W. J., Pacific
We present an overview of our recent research on topography effects in strong Engineering and Analysis, El Cerrito, CA, pacificengineering@juno.com
ground motion, which ranges from semi-analytical solutions of wave propagation As part of NGA-East, the geotechnical working group is conducting a number of
in elastic infinite wedges to numerical simulations of the seismic response of parametric studies to develop new sets of amplification factors suitable for Eastern
complex topographic features on the surface of nonlinear soils. Starting from the US conditions. A key variable being considered is the depth to hard rock, defined
simplest idealized feature, we first present the response of an infinite wedge, which as material with Vs=3km/sec. In some areas this rock occurs at shallow depths
has been traditionally used in studies of topography effects due to its similarity of less than 30 meters such as in Northeast while in other areas is can be much
with features like mountain roots and crustal discontinuities. We use the semi- greater, such as in the Mississippi Embayment. The use of Vs30 to characterize
analytical results as guidance for the parameterization of topographic amplification site amplification is considered to be insufficient. In this presentation, we will
in convex features, as well as for validation of our numerical simulations. We present results of one-dimensional nonlinear site response analysis simulations
then present results of simulated topography effects for more complex features. currently underway for both shallow and deep hard rock conditions. The influence
Of particular interest are our analyses of topographic amplification on shallow of the rock depth on resonance and ground motion spectral amplification will be
granular soil deposits overlaying bedrock, which we also validate by comparison presented.
with centrifuge experimental data. Our results suggest that the inelastic response of
pressure-dependent soils near the surface has a unique impact on the amplification
intensity and frequency characteristics of topographic amplification, which could Vs30 for Site Response – Why, When, and How?
differ substantially from viscoelastic model predictions traditionally used in studies KAMAI, R., Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva, Israel,
of such effects. Our simulations also show that topographic features overlaying rkamai@bgu.ac.il; ABRAHAMSON, N. A., Pacific Gas and Electric
stratified soils cause amplification much higher than otherwise predicted by the Company, San Francisco, CA, abrahamson@berkeley.edu; SILVA, W. J., Pacific
superposition of topographic amplification and 1D site response; we attribute the Engineering and Analysis, El Cerrito, CA USA, pacificengineering@juno.com
excess amplification to coupling effects between topography and site amplification.
Our results in part explain the discrepancy between theory and observations that VS30 , the time-averaged shear-wave velocity of the top 30 meters, is used as
characterized previous studies on topography effects, and have implications in the primary parameter to describe site effects in both phases of the PEER-based
ground motion predictions for mountainous regions, as well as in the response of Ground Motion Prediction Equations. There is no debate that VS30 is not a
man-made geotechnical systems like retaining structures and gravity dams. fundamental physical parameter that controls the site response but it is correlated
to the full velocity profile and hence can be used as a proxy to describe the response
of the entire soil column to seismic loading. Since no better alternative thus far has
Diffracted Wave-field Decomposition and Multi-dimensional Site Effects in been suggested for a single, continuous parameter that can work well for a large
the Argostoli Valley, Greece global dataset, VS30 will probably continue to dominate GMPE site classification
IMTIAZ, A., Institut Sciences de la Terre, Grenoble, France, afifa.imtiaz@ujf- for the near future. Therefore, we examine the logic and physical reasoning for
grenoble.fr; CORNOU, C., Institut Sciences de la Terre , Grenoble, France,
using VS30 , and provide guidelines and limitations for its use in seismic hazard
cecile.cornou@ujf-grenoble.fr; BARD, P. Y., Institut Sciences de la Terre, calculations. To use these guidelines, knowing the VS30 value alone is insufficient.
Grenoble, France, pierre-yves.bard@ujf-grenoble.fr; HOBIGER, M., Swiss Some information on the velocity profile – at least on shallow gradients – is
Seismological Service, Zurich, Switzerland, manuel.hobiger@sed.ethz.ch; required. In this presentation, we explore the correlation between VS30 and ground
CULTRERA, G., Instituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia , Rome, motion amplification, based specifically on the NGA-West2 ground motion and
Italy, giovanna.cultrera@ingv.it; BOXBERGER, T., German Research Centre site database. We show the range of shear-wave velocity profiles represented in the
for Geosciences , Potsdam, Germany, tobias.boxberger@gfz-potsdam.de; site database for different regions and provide guidance as to which sites can use
THEODOULIDIS, N., Institute of Engineering Seismology & Earthquake
the VS30 scaling within the GMPE. We review typical issues in using VS30 scaling
Engineering, Thessaloniki, Greece, ntheo@itsak.gr within GMPEs for site response analysis. For example – we discuss the differences
Effects of laterally varying surface geology (e.g. sedimentary valleys, topography) in using depth scaling based on Z1.0 vs. Z2.5 and provide guidance on definitions
are known to be associated with a substantial proportion of surface waves, which of these parameters. We discuss how to choose the velocity horizon in which to
significantly contribute to ground-motion amplification and variability. In this input a rock motion for site-response analysis. Finally, we discuss the use of VS30
study, earthquake data from the two-dimensional dense seismic arrays, deployed scaling with embedded structures.
in a small-size, shallow alluvial valley, Koutavos-Argostoli, located in Cephalonia
Island, Greece, were analyzed to characterize such effects. The main dense array On the Accuracy of Vs30-based Site Response Amplifications in California
(Array A) was positioned close to the south-western edge of the basin and THOMPSON, E. M., SDSU, San Diego, CA, ethompson@mail.sdsu.edu;
consisted of 21 velocimeters in concentric circles with radii of 5 m, 15 m, 40 WALD, D. J., USGS, Golden, CO
m and 80 m around the reference station. Another smaller array (Array B)
was deployed near the north-eastern edge and consisted of 10 velocimeters with To provide more accurate models of site response in ShakeMap, earthquake
interstation distances ranging from 5 to 60 meters. A set of 46 earthquakes, with scenarios, and other seismic hazard applications, that are independent of typical
magnitude 2 to 5 and epicentral distance up to 200 km was analyzed for seismic modeling assumptions (such as one-dimensional wave propagation), we have
wave field decomposition. An advanced three-component seismic array processing developed a database of site-specific empirical amplification factors (EAFs) based
technique, MUSIQUE, was used to extract the phase velocity, back-azimuth of on the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center’s Next Generation of
the dominant waves crossing the array as well as their identification as Love or Attenuation ground motion database. These amplification factors are developed
prograde/retrograde Rayleigh waves. The results clearly indicate a predominance of for each site with a minimum of five recordings by averaging amplification as a
scattered surface waves (up to 80% of total energy), mainly from the closest valley- function of frequency (after correcting for event terms where we also require each
edges, beyond the valley fundamental frequency (˜1.5 Hz). Love surface waves event include a minimum of five recordings). The EAFs employ a non-reference
dominate the low-frequency wave field (1.5 - 3 Hz) while Rayleigh waves strongly site approach, where the denominator in the site response ratio is defined as the
dominate only in relatively narrow bands at higher frequencies. An excellent spectral acceleration predicted by the Boore et al. (2014) ground motion prediction
consistency is observed, in a given frequency range, among the dominance of the equation for rock conditions, specifically the time averaged shear-wave velocity

on 09 October 2018
to 30 m (Vs30) of 760 m/s. We assess the accuracy of Vs30-based amplifications inherent variability (ϕss,s) of individual stations at the site, and relate it to features
under the assumption that the EAFs are an accurate representation of the site of the complex geological structure; 3. compare predictions of δs2s and ϕss,s using
effects for response spectra. Additionally, we focus only on sites for which measured various existing GMPEs with different site predictor variables (Vs30, site class, or
Vs30 values are available so that we can assess the accuracy of Vs30 proxies relative no site variable) and study their sensitivity.
to direct measurements. We quantify accuracy in terms of the standard deviation
of the response-spectral residuals relative to both the standard deviation of the PRENOLIN Project: a Benchmark on Numerical Simulation of 1-D Nonlinear
EAF residuals and the standard deviations of residuals for rock amplification Site Effect. 3 – Preliminary Results from the Validation Phase on Real Sites.
factors (i.e., no site effects). Although it is easy to find examples where Vs30-based RÉGNIER, J., CEREMA, Nice, France, julie.regnier@cerema.fr; BONILLA,
amplifications fail to accurately reproduce the EAFs, when the data are statistically L. F., IFSTTAR, Paris, France, Luis-fabian.bonilla-hidalgo@ifsttar.fr; BARD,
analyzed across all sites we observe that the Vs30-based amplifications are able to P. Y., IFSTTAR, ISTerre, Grenoble, France, pierre-yves.bard@ujf-grenoble.fr;
reduce the residual standard deviations nearly to the level of the EAFs. BERTRAND, E., CEREMA, Nice, France, Etienne.bertrand@cerema.fr;
KAWASE, H., DPRI, Kyoto, Japan, kawase.hiroshi.6x@kyoto-u.ac.jp;
Accounting for Impedance and Attenuation Effects on Input Ground Motions HOLLENDER, F., CEA, Cadarache, France, fabrice.hollender@cea.fr;
used in Site Response Analyses MARROT, M., CEREMA, Nice, France, marianne_marot@hotmail.com;
CABAS, A., Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, amcabas@vt.edu; RODRIGUEZ- SICILIA, D., EDF, Aix-en-Provence, deborah.sicilia@edf.fr; & the PRENOLIN
MAREK, A., Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, adrianrm@vt.edu participants: Assimaki, D., Gorgia Tech; Boldini, D., Univ. Bologna; Iai, S., DPRI;
Kramer, S., Univ. Washington; Foerster, E., CEA; Gélis, C., IRSN; Gazetas, G.,
Site response analyses (SRA) seek to quantify how shallow geological layers modify NTUA; Gingery, J., Kleinfelder/UCSD; Hashash, Y., Univ. of Illinois; Moczo, P.,
ground motions. The input motions used for SRA are commonly selected based CUB; Foti, S., Politecnico di Torino; Lanzo, G., Univ. Rome; Lopez-Caballero,
on similarities between the shear wave velocity (Vs) at the recording station, and F., ECP; DeMartin, F., BRGM; Jeremic, B., UCD; Nieto-Ferro, A., EDF; Santisi,
the reference depth at the site where such input motion will be applied. This M.P., Univ. Nice; Mercerat, D.***, CEREMA; Tropeano, G., UNICA; Taibat, M.,
requirement is necessary to ensure that effects resulting from impedance contrasts UBC; Giannakou, A., Fugro
in the reference bedrock are fully captured. Attenuation effects in the shallow
crust are also important, but these effects may not be explicitly accounted for The main objective of the PRENOLIN project is the uncertainty assessment
by simply matching Vs profiles. Therefore, this study proposes a methodology associated to nonlinear simulation of 1D site effects. Thus, an international
for assessing systematic errors introduced into SRA when the profile at the benchmark is underway to test several wave propagation codes having different
recording station is different from the profile below the depth at which the nonlinear soil constitutive models. A preliminary verification phase (i.e.
input motion is applied. Given that the shallow-crust attenuation (or damping) comparison between numerical codes on idealistic cases) has been performed.
is characterized by the high-frequency attenuation parameter kappa (κ), a Vs-κ The validation phase compares numerical predictions with actual strong motion
correction framework is proposed to modify motions recorded on rock so that recordings at two well-known sites in Japan (KSRH10 and Sendai), is undergoing.
they are applicable as input motions at sites underlain by a different (stiffer) rock. The benchmark presently involves 24 different teams and 28 different nonlinear
The performance of the proposed Vs-κ correction factors is assessed by applying computations. KSRH10 (KiK-net) is a deep sedimentary site whereas Sendai
them to a subset of recordings from the KiK-net database and comparing them to (PARI) is shallow site (down-hole sensors located at 250m and 8m depths,
more traditional deconvolution techniques. Results indicate that Vs-κ corrected respectively). Both in-situ and laboratory measurements were performed to define
motions outperform deconvolved motions in the characterization of the spectral the soil columns with Vs, Vp, Poisson’s ratio, density, shear modulus degradation
energy in the high-frequency range. They also suggest that motions recorded at and damping ratio curves for each soil. We select down-hole recording as input
sites with very soft near-surface deposits may not be good candidates for the Vs-κ motion and the associated surface recording as target motion. The set of selected
correction approach or as input motions for SRA in general. Likewise, recordings input motions represents different frequency contents and PGA values. Our
from stations with strong resonances should be disregarded as input motions for results show that the computed amplification from weak motion is higher than
SRA because they introduce narrow-banded peaks that may not be representative observed data. This could be due to either attenuation values too low, up-
of an outcropping rock motion. Therefore, other criteria in addition to seeking going and down-going waves interferences at the down-hole station higher in
agreement between Vs profiles should be enforced when selecting input motions the simulations, or the invalid assumption of verticality of the incident plane S-
for SRA. waves. Conversely, computed nonlinear soil response is lower than recorded data.
Laboratory measurements need to be reviewed and as we work with total stress
Site Effects and Ground Motion Variability: Traditional Spectral Ratios vs. analysis, some discrepancies could come from the fact that we neglect pore water
GMPE Residuals pressure effects. Indeed, we need to see the relevance of laboratory data to reflect
KTENIDOU, O. J., Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, in-situ conditions. PRENOLIN is part of two larger projects: SINAPS@, funded
by the ANR, the French national research agency, and SIGMA, funded by a
olga.ktenidou@ujf-grenoble.fr; ROUMELIOTI, Z., Aristotle University
consortium of nuclear operators (EDF, CEA, AREVA, ENEL).
Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece, zroum@civil.auth.gr; ABRAHAMSON,
N. A., Pacific Gas & Electric, San Francisco, CA, abrahamson@berkeley.edu;
COTTON, F., Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, fcotton@gfz- Non-Ergodic Site Response using Amplification Derived from 1D Analysis
potsdam.de; PITILAKIS, K., Aristotle University Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, AFSHARI, K., UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, kafshari@g.ucla.edu; STEWART, J.
Greece, kpitilak@civil.auth.gr; HOLLENDER, F., CEA Cadarache, St Paul lez P., UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, jstewart@seas.ucla.edu; GOULET, C. A., PEER
Durance, France, fabrice.hollender@cea.fr Center, Berkeley, CA, goulet@berkeley.edu
Non-ergodic approaches are being used recently in the PSHA context, because if we Along with source and path effects, site response analysis is a vital component
estimate local site response independently, then the uncertainty in GMPEs can be of ground motion prediction. Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs)
reduced to what is known as single-station sigma (σss). In such studies, residuals include terms for modeling site response based on simple metrics of site condition
analysis also typically yields the systematic deviation (δs2s) of a site’s response such as VS30. Because site terms in GMPEs are derived from global databases and
with respect to the average GMPE prediction. For a GMPE with no site predictor are based on incomplete site information, their predictions represent average site
variable, δs2s can be interpreted as the relative amplification between different response conditional on VS30. Such predictions are referred to as ergodic. The
sites. Typically, relative amplification between sites is determined using empirical actual site response for a particular site and intensity measure can be understood
spectral ratios with respect to a reference that is either a record on rock (standard as being the sum of the ergodic estimate from a global model and a (generally
spectral ratio; SSR), or the vertical component (horizontal-to-vertical spectral unknown) site term. If this site term can be identified and used to adjust the ergodic
ratio; HVSR). Though station-specific within-event standard deviation values model, the ground motion analysis becomes more accurate (i.e., bias is removed),
(ϕss,s) are being compiled globally, δs2s values are often treated as a by-product of and the dispersion of the predicted ground motions is reduced. We consider the use
non-ergodic PSHA. We use a well-constrained dataset to study both ϕss,s and δs2s. of one-dimensional (1D) ground response analysis (GRA) to estimate site-specific
Our study site is the EUROSEISTEST, a geologically complex region with an array site response. We show that previous studies investigating the usefulness of GRA
of 14 surface and 6 downhole accelerometers (http://euroseisdb.civil.auth.gr). Site to estimate observed site response (as evaluated from recordings) have achieved
conditions range from soft sediments to hard rock. Our dataset consists of 690 mixed success. This occurs because actual site response involves a variety of physical
records from 133 events. The distinct advantages of our dataset are: 1. good processes, some of which are not captured by 1D analysis. Drawing from these
knowledge of site conditions from more than 20 years of site investigations; 2. good lessons, we provide recommendations for interpreting the results of 1D analyses
quality of source metadata from expert relocations; 3. large number of records per in the form of ground motion amplification functions that are conditioned on the
station. This is an ideal case for us to: 1. compare traditional empirical estimates of amplitude of the input shaking. These functions can be used to replace an ergodic
site amplification (SSR, HVSR) with residuals-based estimates (δs2s); 2. study the site model in the GMPE. We also provide recommendations on adjustment of

on 09 October 2018
standard deviation terms. Finally, our recommended implementation transitions non-invasive techniques, with the aim to deliver guidelines for a good practice for
from GRA-based amplification functions at short periods to ergodic models with non-expert users.
basin terms at long periods, due to the inability of GRA to capture the physical
processes governing long-period site response. Characteristics and Site Response Applications of Measured 6DOF Ground
Motions at GVDA
YIN, J., Tongji University, Shanghai, China, yjm_87@126.com; NIGBOR, R.
Comparisons of Low-Strain Amplification at Soft-Sediment, Hard-Rock, L., UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, nigbor@ucla.edu; CHEN, Q., Tongji University,
Topographic, and Fault-Zone Sites in the Hayward Fault Zone, California Shanghai, China, chenqj@tongji.edu.cn
CATCHINGS, R. D., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, catching@
usgs.gov; STRAYER, L. M., California State University, Hayward, CA, Characteristics of rotational earthquake ground motions and their contribution to
luther.strayer@csueastbay.edu; GOLDMAN, M. R., US Geological Survey, site response and SSI are not yet well-defined. Real earthquake data are sparse, and
Menlo Park, CA, goldman@usgs.gov common 1D site response analyses look at only one of the six degrees of freedom
of ground motion. A six-degree-of-freedom (6DOF) ground motion observation
We used a temporary network of approximately 600 seismographs to record a system was installed at Garner Valley Downhole Array (GVDA), a very well-
seismic source generated by the collapse of a 13-story building near the active characterized and well-instrumented geotechnical array in Southern California.
trace of the Hayward Fault. These data allow us to evaluate variations in ground Since 2008, hundreds of 6DOF free-field earthquake ground motion events have
shaking across a series of 30 2-km-long radial arrays centered on the seismic been measured with a relatively wide range of distance and magnitude. 6DOF free-
source. Individual seismographs were spaced at 200-m intervals, forming a series field ground motions of 74 earthquake events with good signal quality are analyzed.
of 360◦ concentric arrays around the seismic source. The data show variations Sensor response was deconvolved in a standardized manner and recorded rotational
in amplification caused by (1) soft sediments within the East Bay alluvial plain velocity time series were differentiated and integrated for direct comparison of
(EBAP), (2) hard rocks within the East Bay hills (EBH), (3) low-velocity rocks rotational and translational accelerations, velocities, and displacements. These
within the Hayward Fault zone (HFZ), and (4) topography. Given that ground records show that rotational motion is significant and that the ground motion
shaking varies strongly with distance from the source, the concentric arrays allowed is much more complex than 1D, especially for near-field events. 6DOF data
us to measure variations in ground shaking as a function of azimuth at fixed show a linear relationship between PRV and PGA as suggested by independent
distances from the source. On individual linear profiles within the concentric observations at a site in Taiwan. For near-field events the rocking components are
arrays, we observed decreases in peak ground velocity (PGV) across the HFZ larger than torsional components. Ratios of rotation to translation as a function
and other faults within the EBH. However, for a given distance from the of hypocentral distance show much larger ground rotations at closer distance, and
source, we observe four to five fold amplification from the EBAP sites compared that the rotational ground motions attenuate much more rapidly than translational
to most sites in the EBH. Topographic and fault-zone amplification effects ground motions along with distance. Measured rotational ground motions indicate
within the EBH, however, are greater than the EBAP sediment amplification. more high frequency content than translational ground motions. Comparison
Thus, for future earthquakes, shaking at many sites within the EBH may be of directly recorded ground rotations with those calculated from translational
significantly stronger than many sites within the EBAP. These observations suggest motions using elastic wave theory shows big differences in both near-field and
amplification can be expected in unconsolidated sediments, but topographic and far-field recordings. These rotational components of ground motion can provide
fault-zone amplification can be larger. This confirms the importance of site insight into the complexity of the site response problem.
effects for hazard mitigation and in interpreting MMI for future and historical
earthquakes.
The Interpacific Project: an International Cooperative Benchmark for

Earthquake Processes and Multiscale Modeling and
Assessing Reliability and Accuracy of Invasive and Non-invasive Seismic Characterization of Fragmentation and Damage Patterns
Methods for Site Characterization in Fault Zones
GAROFALO, F., Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy, flora.garofalo@polito.it;
FOTI, S., Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy, flora.garofalo@polito.it;
Oral Session · Thursday · 8:30 AM · 23 April · Ballroom H
HOLLENDER, F., CEA Cadarache, St Paul lez Durance, France, Session Chairs: Ahmed Elbanna and Harsha Bhat
fabrice.hollender@cea.fr; CORNOU, C., ISTerre, Grenoble, France,
cecile.cornou@ujf-grenoble.fr; BARD, P. Y., ISTerre, Grenoble, France,
pierre-yves.bard@ujf-grenoble.fr; COX, B. R., University of Texas, Austin, Strain Localization and Efficiency of Initiating Strike-Slip Faults in Wet Kaolin
TX, brcox@utexas.edu; DECHAMP, A., CEA DAM DIF, Arpajon, France, Experiments
aline.dechamp@cea.fr; OHRNBERGER, M., University of Potsdam, Golm, HATEM, A. E., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA,
Germany, matthias.ohrnberger@geo.uni-potsdam.de; SICILIA, D., EDF ahatem@usc.edu; COOKE, M. L., University of Massachusetts, Amherst,
CEIDRE, Aix-en-Provence, France, deborah.sicilia@edf.fr; VERGNIAULT, MA, cooke@geo.umass.edu; TOENEBOEHN, K., University of Massachusetts,
C., EDF CEIDRE, Aix-en-Provence, France, christophe.vergniault@edf.fr Amherst, MA, ktoeneboehn@umass.edu
The InterPacific (Intercomparison of methods for site parameter and velocity We document the evolution of shear strain and slip efficiency associated with
profile characterization) project aims to assess the reliability of seismic site strike-slip fault initiation within wet kaolin, including the coalescence, interaction
characterization methods (borehole and surface wave methods) used for estimating and linkage of overlapping fault segments. Strain first localizes onto short,
shear wave velocity (Vs) profiles and corresponding lumped parameters (e.g. dilational echelon faults that, with greater displacement, develop into a through-
Vs30). Three sites, representative of different geological conditions relevant for the going strike-slip fault. Although overlapping fault segments are abandoned, the
evaluation of seismic site response effects, have been selected: a hard rock outcrop, final fault trace is irregular. Faults become increasingly slip efficient as strain
a deep soft deposit, and an intermediate case with thick stiff soils, a velocity localizes in four stages. Stage 1 is a wide shear zone with diffuse shear strain
inversion and large bedrock depth. Two to three boreholes have been drilled at above the localized or distributed shear at the base of experiment. In this stage,
these sites and various companies were invited to perform in-hole measurements slip efficiency is zero because all deformation remains distributed. Stage 2 shows
(cross-hole, down-hole and PS-logging). Both active and passive surface wave data narrowing of the shear zone onto either the pre-cut faults in control experiments
were also collected, all of them located in the vicinity of the boreholes for a better or echelon faults in fault initiation experiments, and this localization is associated
comparison between the results from invasive and non-invasive methods. The same with increasing slip efficiency. Stage 3, for fault initiation experiments, involves
experimental non-invasive datasets without any prior information about the sites fault interaction and redistribution of shear strain. In stage 3, slip efficiency
were provided to 14 different teams, which were asked to retrieve the Vs profiles increases while active fault zone width decreases. Finally, in stage 4, the active fault
working on the preferred subset of available experimental data. For surface wave zones narrows to the minimum fault zone width in all experiments. We show
methods, results outline that the dispersion curves provided by the participants slip efficiency increases and off-fault deformation decreases only when strain is
were in very good agreement with each other. Inverted Vs profiles were also localized and slip within the fault zone is minimized.
found to be very consistent at least in the reliable resolution depth range of these
techniques. Results from invasive methods show a variability of Vs estimates of the A Comparative Study of Seismicity Statistics in Laboratory Stick-Slip
same order as the variability of Vs estimates obtained from non-invasive methods. Experiments, Mining Operations and Nature: Implications for Fault
The next steps of the benchmark will focus on the useful information for better Mechanics
constraining inverted Vs profiles (e.g. water level depth, resonance frequency) and GOEBEL, T. H. W., Caltech, Pasadena, CA, thw.goebel@gmail.com;
to quantifying uncertainties and depth resolution in derived Vs profiles through KWIATEK, G., GFZ-Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, kwiatek@gfz-potsdam.de;

on 09 October 2018
BECKER, T. W., USC, Los Angeles, CA, twb@usc.edu; SAMMIS, C. G., stressing conditions have a profound effect on the rupture process. We use the
Los Angeles, CA, sammis@usc.edu; DRESEN, G., GFZ-Postsdam, Potsdam, 3D quasi-dynamic, physics-based simulator RSQSim to investigate how stress
Germany, dre@gfz-potsdam.de evolution effects rupture propagation at fault stepovers over multiple earthquake
cycles. Comparisons of single-event ruptures at fault stepovers between RSQSim
At seismogenic depth, seismicity is one of the only available data-sets that can and the dynamic finite element code FaultMod demonstrate nucleation locations
provide insights into fault structure and stress. We analyze natural, induced and on the secondary fault similar to those of Harris and Day (1993). Multi-cycle event
laboratory seismicity data-sets, concentrating on seismicity statistics and source simulations incorporating rate- and state friction on en echelon faults using evolved
mechanisms. Our laboratory stick-slip experiments were performed on saw-cut stress states that arise due to fault interaction and tectonic loading are presented
surfaces with varying roughness and incipient fracture surfaces under pressures here. Results indicate that successful rupture jumps only occur at stepover widths
and stresses representative of seismogenic depths. The mining-induced seismicity of 1-1.5 km for both fault step types. The spatial pattern of rupture re-nucleation
was recorded in a deep, South African Gold mine and exhibited magnitudes down locations is influenced by the evolved stresses and is dissimilar to previous studies.
to M-4. The analyzed seismicity records exhibit many striking similarities across Finally, initial rupture nucleation always occurs before the magnitude of the pre-
all examined scales. These similarities include robust Gutenberg-Richter-type stress reaches values high enough to cause super-shear rupture. These results suggest
magnitude distributions, Omori-type aftershock decay, and off-fault seismicity that mechanisms such as extreme weakening may play a larger role than initial stress
distributions that decay as a power law with distance. In the laboratory, fault on supershear ruptures, and that observations of rupture jumps > 1 km may be
roughness and heterogeneity localize stresses, thereby leading to local AE clustering, explained by fault connection at depth
as well as differences in off-fault activity decay and lower b-values. Similar
observations of earthquake clustering and b-value variations have been made for
Conditions Governing Supershear Transition on Nonplanar Faults
natural faults such as the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault. We analyzed
BRUHAT, L., Stanford University, Stanford, CA USA, lbruhat@stanford.edu;
moment tensors of laboratory seismicity, focusing on relative contributions from
DUNHAM, E. M., Stanford University, Stanford, CA, edunham@
isotropic and deviatoric components. In contrast to typical measurements from
stanford.edu; FANG, Z., ConocoPhillips Company, Houston, TX, zijun.fang@
natural seismicity, the laboratory AEs show a large contribution from isotropic
conocophillips.com
components. These contributions are a result of ongoing damage evolution within
the fault zones which are most pronounced after stick-slip events. Similarly, the Past field investigations [e.g., Bouchon et al., 2010] suggest that supershear
mining-induced seismicity shows deviations from a pure shear-type faulting within earthquakes occur on simple, smooth fault segments. However, numerical
the aftershock sequence of a M1.9 event. Our study shows, that seismicity analyses simulations show that heterogeneity of stress, strength, and fault geometry can
in laboratory experiments and mines can significantly advance our understanding also trigger the supershear transition. Our work uses 2D plane strain dynamic
of fault mechanics from the scale of single asperities to large fault zone ruptures on fractally rough faults subject to strongly rate-weakening friction laws.
We analyze the ensemble rupture catalog of Fang and Dunham [2013] to identify
Multiscale, Spontaneous Stick-Slip Events in Rotary-Shear Experiments as and document supershear transitions. This ensemble contains 3000 simulations
Analogous to Earthquake Rupture for five different values of roughness and various background shear stress levels.
ZU, X., University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, uznomis@hotmail.com; Despite a very high seismic S ratio, far above the Burridge-Andrews threshold for
RECHES, Z., University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, reches@ou.edu planar faults with uniform stress and strength conditions, supershear transitions
are observed. When exploring the distribution of rupture velocities for all the
Experimental stick-slips are commonly envisioned as laboratory analogues of simulations, we find that the percentage of the fault that ruptures at supershear
the spontaneous faults slip during natural earthquakes (Brace & Byerlee, 1966). speeds increases with the background shear stress, as expected, but surprisingly
However, typical experimental stick-slips are tiny events of slip distances up also with the fault roughness. We also examine individual ruptures to identify
to a few tens of microns. To close the gap between such events and natural recurrent patterns for the supershear transition. Some transitions happen notably
earthquakes, we develop a new method that produces spontaneous stick-slips with after propagation through an unfavorable bend, which temporarily stores strain
large displacements on our rotary shear apparatus (Reches & Lockner, 2010). energy that is subsequently released to trigger a supershear transition. To test
In this method, the controlling program continuously calculates the real-time this idea, we study a simple case of an initially sub-Rayleigh rupture propagating
power-density (PD = slip-velocity times shear stress) of the experimental fault. across two parallel segments linked by an angled connecting segment. For low
Then, a feedback loop modifies the slip-velocity to match the real-time PD with values of the corrector angle and length, the rupture first slows down, then
the requested PD. In this method, the stick-slips occur spontaneously while slip transitions to supershear along the following planar fault segment. This mechanism
velocity and duration are not controlled by the operator. We present a series of might explain how supershear ruptures can occur on faults with high seismic
tens stick-slip events along granite and diorite experimental faults with 0.0001-1.3 S ratio.
m of total slip and slip-velocity up to 0.45 m/s. Depending on the magnitude of the
requested PD, we recognized three types of events: (1) Stick-slips with a nucleation
A 3D, Rotationally Invariant Form of Crustal Stress Relaxation Equations
slip that initiates ˜0.1 sec before the main slip which is characterized by temporal
with Applications for Earthquake Simulation and Off-Fault Moment Release
increase of shear stress, normal stress, and fault dilation; (2) Events resembling
Estimates
slip-pulse behavior of abrupt acceleration and intense dynamic weakening and
SMITH, D. E., USGS, Earthquake Science Center, Menlo Park, CA,
subsequent strength recovery; and (3) Small, creep events during quasi-continuous,
deborahsmith@usgs.gov; DIETERICH, J. H., University of California,
low- velocity slip with tiny changes of stress and dilation. The energy-displacement
Riverside, CA, dieterichj@ucr.edu
catalog of types (1) and (2) events shows good agreement with previous slip-
pulse experiments and natural earthquakes (Chang et al., 2012). The present A form of off-fault stress relaxation, based on rate-state seismicity equations, has
experiments indicate that power-density control is a promising experimental been developed to resolve several problems associated with geometrically complex
approach for earthquake simulations. faults in elastic media. Slip on geometrically complex faults in elastic media
produces fault interaction stresses that non-physically grow without limit. These
Multicycle Simulations of Earthquake Rupture in Regions with Complex Fault stresses in turn suppress fault slip, break the linear slip vs. length scaling for
Geometry. ruptures, and result in nonconvergent solutions as model resolution increases. In
KROLL, K. A., University of California, Riverside, CA, kkrol001@ucr.edu; the Earth, these fault interaction stresses cannot grow without limit, and yielding
OGLESBY, D. O., University of California, Riverside, CA, david. will occur; therefore, we build upon the suggestion by Dieterich and Smith [2009]
oglesby@ucr.edu; RICHARDS-DINGER, K. B., University of California, that off-fault yielding relieves these stresses through pervasive secondary faulting in
Riverside, CA, keithrd@ucr.edu; DIETERICH, J. H., University of California, the brittle crust. Starting with the rate-state seismicity equations that statistically
Riverside, CA, dieterichj@ucr.edu describe the nucleation of seismicity in the brittle crust, we derive analytical
expressions to represent stress relaxation as a time dependent, bulk yielding process.
The stressing conditions on faults continuously evolve due to several factors, such These expressions 1) regularize the simulations, 2) restore the linear slip vs. length
as tectonic stressing, fault interactions, pore-fluid perturbations, and viscoelastic scaling in ruptures, and 3) enable stress interactions to grow and relax about a long-
relaxation. Knowledge of rupture behavior near fault stepovers is critically term average instead of growing without limit. This model provides predictions of
important to properly quantify and mitigate seismic hazards. Both the earthquake off-fault moment release as a function of time and space, arising from the stress
magnitude and recurrence interval vary depending on whether rupture jumps relaxation. In our recent work, we developed a rotationally invariant, 3D version
across or is arrested at a stepover. Landmark investigations of en echelon fault of the stress relaxation equations based on the rate-state evolution equation. This
interaction with uniform initial stresses that promote super-shear rupture reported involves calculating the inner product of 3D stress tensors with reference stress
successful jumps occur at step-over widths = 2.5 and 5 km for compressional and tensors (set by steady-state stability conditions), and employing the scalar results in
extensional stepovers, respectively (Harris and Day, 1993). However, the initial the stress relaxation equations. This generates results similar to, but more general

on 09 October 2018
than, previous work that used shear and normal stresses resolved onto a reference particles that integrates principles of non-equilibrium statistical thermodynamics
plane for the equations. and force chain instabilities. Previous numerical and experimental work on grain
breakage was inconclusive regarding whether grain breakage was a softening or
a hardening mechanism. The outcome depends on the competition between
Bigger Aftershocks Occur Farther Away evolving grain angularity and reduced particle size with both processes affecting
VAN DER ELST, N. J., Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, force chain dynamics. To account for local force chain instabilities, we develop a
nicholas.vanderelst@gmail.com; SHAW, B. E., Lamont-Doherty Earth small scale model for force chain buckling that is integrated within the the non-
Observatory, Palisades, NY, shaw@ldeo.columbia.edu equilibrium thermodynamic formulation of gouge plasticity. We idealize a typical
force chain as an array of particles with both translational and rotational degrees
Earthquakes set off cascading sequences of aftershocks in the surrounding region, of freedom. The relative motion between the particles is resisted by sliding and
some of which can be as large or larger than the initial mainshock. Aftershocks may rolling friction. Buckling of force chains is integrated within the plastic formulation
be driven by stress concentrations due to heterogeneous slip in the main rupture, through its effect on yield stress. Our results suggest that there exist a critical grain
or by elastic stress transfer along the fault and onto neighboring strands. Physical size below which the buckling stress for the force chain, and hence the flow stress,
intuition suggests that aftershocks on or near the main rupture should be limited decreases linearly with the decrease of the particle size. Furthermore, we show that
in size, because the typical length scale of the remaining stress heterogeneities grain breakage is a potential weakening mechanism at high pressures and at strain
should be smaller than the length scale of the primary rupture. On the other rates high enough to reduce the grain size below the aforementioned critical limit.
hand, aftershocks that occur outside the main rupture should have no such Grain breakage also promotes strain localization, particularly in compact layers,
size limitation, leaving them with a higher likelihood of propagating onward and may explain the long term persistence of shear bands in natural faults due to the
to themselves become large. This is consistent with anecdotal observations that permanent change in the layer fabric resulting from comminution. We discuss the
aftershocks occur preferentially – but not exclusively – at the margins of slip implications of these findings on the fault zone evolution and earthquake energy
patches. We investigate high-precision Double-Difference earthquake catalogs budget.
in California for evidence that the magnitude distribution of aftershocks is
affected by proximity to the mainshock. We measure the location of aftershocks
with respect to the centroid location of all previous activity in the aftershock Modeling the LA and SF Repeating Sequences in Parkfield
sequence, which we take to represent the mainshock rupture centroid. We find LUI, S. K. Y., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, klui@
preliminary evidence that larger aftershocks tend to occur farther from the centroid caltech.edu; LAPUSTA, N., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena,
of previous activity than do smaller aftershocks. We argue that the signature CA, lapusta@caltech.edu
of elastic rebound is evident in aftershock spatial distributions, and discuss
ways to model these distributions through modifications to existing aftershock In this study, we aim to reproduce, through numerical modeling of rate-and-
probability kernels. Probabilistic forecasting of large aftershocks may be much state faults, the observed interactive behavior of the LA and SF repeating
improved by incorporating magnitude-dependence into the spatial prediction sequences, which are primary targets of the San Andreas Fault Observatory at
kernels. Depth drilling project. The two repeating sequences have recurrence interval
of approximately 3 years, and the LA event tends to occur within 24 hours
after the SF event, suggesting strong triggering effect. Studying small repeating
Local Fault Structures from Directivity Analysis of Small Earthquakes at the
earthquakes is helpful in understanding a rich array of problems, from fault
San Jacinto Fault Zone
creeping velocities and postseismic slip to earthquake interaction and stress drops.
KURZON, I., The Geological Survey of Israel, Jerusalem, Israel, ittaik@gsi.gov.il;
Our model consists of repeating earthquakes occurring on two small velocity-
VERNON, F. L., University of California, La Jolla, CA, flvernon@ucsd.edu;
weakening (VW) patches embedded into a larger velocity-strengthening (VS)
ASTIZ, L., University of California, La Jolla, CA, lastiz@ucsd.edu
fault area. Previously, we have shown that our model reproduces the observed
We implement a time-domain tool for analyzing rupture directivity of small scaling of the repeaters’ moment with their recurrence time, which is due to
earthquakes to reconstruct local fault structures and dominant source mechanisms significant aseismic slip at the location of seismic events. We have also quantified
at the Trifurcation area of the San Jacinto Fault Zone (SJFZ). Three local the relative importance of various types of stress transfers and showed that
aftershock sequences of the Mw 5.2 June 2005, Mw 5.4 July 2010 and Mw 4.7 interaction between patches is dominated by the effect of accelerated postseismic
March 2013 events, with an overall magnitude range of M 1 - 5.4 are used, allowing slip around them, and not through direct static stress changes. Here, we further
a high resolution multi-scale study. In this time-domain directivity tool, peak refine our model to match the inferences of relatively high stress drops in the
amplitudes of S body waves are corrected for hypocentral distances, and analyzed LA and SF repeating events, of the order of 30 MPa. Specifically, we investigate
statistically to find the Azimuth of maximum amplitudes. The tool requires local whether such large stress drops are due to enhanced dynamic weakening, or higher
hypocentral distances of up to 80km, and a relatively dense and even coverage compressive stress at the VW patches, or a combination of both factors. We also
of seismic stations. In order to make this tool more robust we added several aim to explain some of the observed irregular event patterns. Our preliminary
requirements, including analysis of the three components: vertical, radial and results indicate that some of the irregularity may be due to the interaction
transversal, searching for those events in which we get a good agreement between itself.
the radial and transversal components, in determining the rupture directivity.
This analysis shows clearly several groups of events, each group with a dominant
directivity. In order to quantify these groups, we applied cluster analysis according
to two main parameters: a) the azimuth of the rupture directivity, and b) Advances in Earthquake Source Inversion
the distance between the events; the resulting clusters are approximated as 3D Oral Session · Thursday · 1:30 PM · 23 April · Ballroom H
patches, with dominant directivities. Analysis of peak amplitudes, together with
directivity-oriented cluster analysis, provides a fast and reliable tool for revealing Session Chairs: Paul Martin Mai, Lingsen Meng, Shengji Wei,
fault structures, for small events in which focal mechanism techniques fail. In Jean-Paul Ampuero and Danijel Schorlemmner
addition, we reconstructed possible fault structures from the recent tomography
of the Trifurcation area of Allam et al. (2014). Using the velocity and velocity
gradients of the 3D tomography, we examine and show fault structures in which the Complexities of Interplate Earthquakes of Multiple Rupture Stages Revealed
directivity reflects the velocity contrast across the bimaterial interfaces of local fault by Back-Projection
structures. FAN, W., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, w3fan@ucsd.edu;
SHEARER, P. M., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA,
pshearer@ucsd.edu
A Multiscale Model for Shear flow of Granular Materials with Breakable
Particles: Role of Force Chain Instabilities and Implications for Strain Interplate earthquakes are known to be complex with poorly resolved rupture
Localization, Grain Size Evolution and Energy Partitioning. histories. Multiple subevents can happen sequentially within complicated fault
ELBANNA, A. E., University of Illinois Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, systems. One example is the 2012 Sumatra earthquakes that are believed to have
elbanna2@illinois.edu multiple subevents with various rupture histories. Finite-fault source inversion
resolution is limited in these scenarios, since the fault geometry and locations must
Deformation and failure of fault gouge play an important role in earthquake be assumed. Multiple moment tensor inversions can illuminate the complexity of
mechanics. One of the fundamental mechanisms controlling shear strength of the fault geometry but miss details of the rupture propagation. Back-projection is a
fault zones is gouge particles comminution. Here, we describe our recent work good candidate to investigate such problems because it requires fewer assumptions
on developing a constitutive model for sheared granular materials with breakable and can track the propagation history while showing the concentration of high-

on 09 October 2018
frequency energy bursts. With global data, back-projection artifacts can be reduced are computed using a waveform inversion method and data from the Kandilli
by using a relatively uniform azimuthal coverage and hidden features in the Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute broadband seismic network. The
ruptures can be studied in great detail. We propose an improved back-projection time span of data covers the period 2011 October 23 and 2012 February 24. The
approach that can resolve focal-mechanism differences to investigate the 2012 mainshock is a shallow focus thrust event at a depth of 15 km. Focal depths of
Sumatra earthquake and hope to extend it to major interplate earthquakes with aftershocks range from 12 to 25 km. The seismic moment (M0) of the mainshock
complex fault systems. is estimated 0.75 × 1020 Nm. The estimated source-time function shows a
step-like function with rupture duration of 38 s. The focal mechanisms of the
Effective 1D Model Inversion from Teleseismic Empirical Green’s Functions aftershocks are mainly thrust faulting with a variable and sometimes significant
YUE, H., Caltech, Pasadena, CA, hanyue@caltech.edu; HELMBURGER, D., strike-slip component. This geometry indicates a thrust faulting regime with NE-
Caltech, Pasadena, CA, helm@gps.caltech.edu SW trending direction of T-axis in the entire activated region. One of the largest
aftershocks (9 November 2011 19:23 GMT, Mw = 5.8) located 30 km south of
The accuracy of Green’s functions is one key factor controlling the effectiveness the mainshock exhibits strike-slip faulting with NE-SW trending direction of T-
of finite source inversions, while most inversion works adopt 1D velocity model axis. This difference in mechanisms suggests that towards the south, a different
to compute Green’s functions that is not effective capturing the propagation fault system is activated with respect to the NE-SW trending thrust faults beneath
effect along the path. More advanced techniques, e.g. 3D Green’s function Van-Erciž region and more to the north. A Stress tensor inversion of focal
computation and Empirical Green’s Function (EGF) techniques, have respective mechanism data is performed to obtain a more accurate picture of the Van-Erciž
problems and can not be effectively adopted in fault model inversions so far. To earthquake stress field. The stress tensor inversion results show a predominant
improve the teleseismic Green’s function computation and to evaluate its associate thrust stress regime with a NW–SE to NNE–SSW oriented maximum horizontal
uncertainties, we developed an iterative inversion method that invert for the EGF compressive stress (SH). High variances (> 0.2) in local stress field orientations
source parameters and effective 1D velocity model iteratively using teleseismic in the south prove that a different fault system in multiple orientations may be
record of EGF events. We assume there is one optimal effective 1D structure activated.
from the source region to each station, which can be inverted from the record of
multiple local EGF events. Grid search and linear inversion techniques are used to A New Strategy to Compare Inverted Rupture Models Exploiting the Eigen-
invert for the source depth and source time functions respectively. The inverted
Structure of the Inverse Problem
source parameters are taken as inputs for a cascading gradient method to invert GALLOVIC, F., Charles University in Prague, Prague, Czech Republic,
for effective 1D model for each station. Such process is repeated iteratively with gallovic@karel.troja.mff.cuni.cz; AMPUERO, J. P., California Institute of
updated source and structure parameters until stable outputs are founded. The
Technology, Pasadena, CA, ampuero@gps.caltech.edu
inverted source parameters can be used to check the depth dependent rupturing
behavior of subduction zone events systematically. The structure information Slip inversion methods differ in how the rupture model is parameterized and which
improves teleseismic Green’s function computation. Comparing between EGFs regularizations or constraints are applied. However, there is still no consensus
and theoretical Green’s functions yields prediction error, which can be used in about which of the slip inversion methods are preferable and how reliable the
kinematic finite fault model inversion to correct for inversion bias effectively. This inferred source models are due to the non-uniqueness or ill-posedness of the inverse
method is applied to EGFs of the 2010 Maule earthquake region. Promising results problem. The ‘Source Inversion Validation’ (SIV) initiative aims to characterize
are obtained. and understand the performance of slip inversion methods (http://equake-
rc.info/SIV/). Up to now, four benchmark test cases have been proposed, some of
Back-Propagating Rupture during the 2014 Iquique Chile Earthquake which were even conducted as blind tests. The next step is performing quantitative
OKUWAKI, R., University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan, rokuwaki@ comparisons of the inverted rupture models. To this aim, we introduce a new
geol.tsukuba.ac.jp; YAGI, Y., University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan, yagi- comparison technique based on a Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) of the
y@geol.tsukuba.ac.jp; HIRANO, S., University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan, design matrix of the continuum inverse problem. We separate the range and
hirano@kz.tsukuba.ac.jp null sub-spaces (representing resolved and unresolved features, respectively) by
a selected ‘cut-off’ singular value, and compare different inverted models to the
The 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique Chile earthquake is characterized by a filling of northern target (exact) model after projecting them on the range sub-space. This procedure
potion of the Iquique seismic gap, and clear foreshock activity that mainly started effectively quantifies the ability of an inversion result to reproduce the resolvable
two weeks before the main shock. Despite such rigorous features, the co-seismic features of the source. We find that even with perfect Green’s functions the
slip distributions published hitherto are different from one another. From an quality of an inverted model deteriorates with decreasing cut-off singular value
elementary observation of vertical component of teleseismic records, an initial- due to applied regularization (smoothing and positivity constraints). Applying this
rupture phase has a clear directivity toward the south. On the other hand, there approach to the inversion results of the SIV2a benchmark from various authors
is no clear azimuthal dependence on duration of a main-rupture phase, indicating shows that the inferred source images are very similar to the target model when
that the main rupture propagates with a circular crack-like manner. To cope with we consider a cut-off at ˜1/10 of the largest singular value. Although the truncated
this expected complex-rupture feature, we performed a hybrid back-projection model captures the overall rupture propagation, the final slip is biased significantly,
(HBP) analysis to track spatiotemporal distribution of high-frequency (HF: 0.5– showing distinct peaks below the stations lying above the rupture. We also show
2.0 Hz) sources, and estimated the co-seismic slip distribution by a novel waveform synthetic experiments to assess the role of station coverage, crustal velocity model,
inversion taking into account uncertainty in Green’s function, based on multi- etc. on the conditioning of the slip inversion.
time window algorithm. Our approaches have strong advantages that the HBP
method is able to image HF radiation in a broad modeling area because it does
not require a priori knowledge of rupture propagation, and the multi-time window
inversion scheme can flexibly represent a variable slip behavior, including e.g., back- Resolvability Power of Finite Fault Inversions
propagating rupture. During the first 20 s, rupture initiates at the hypocenter ADAMS, M., University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, mareikeadams@
and smoothly propagates through the foreshock area toward the south with small umail.ucsb.edu; JI, C., University of California, Santa Barbara, CA,
ji@geol.ucsb.edu; ARCHULETA, R., University of California, Santa Barbara,
moment release, along with very weak HF radiation. Then a large slip occurs at
the southern edge of the foreshock area. A significant result in our study is that, CA, ralph.archuleta@ucsb.edu
during 40–80 s, rupture mainly back-propagates toward the hypocenter through Observed seismic waveforms and static deformations have been used in inversions
the foreshock area with relatively slow rupture velocity. This is supported by strong for the spatiotemporal rupture evolution of earthquakes. There exist significant
HF radiation occurs at the timing of switching rupture direction to the hypocenter disparities among inverted models for the same earthquake although the misfit
at 40 s, and weak HF sources propagates towards the hypocenter through the between data and synthetics has been minimized. Considering the uncertainties
foreshock area up to 80 s. in the accuracy of the Green’s functions, specifics of fault geometry, and the
limited spatial coverage for earthquakes, it is unlikely that any inverted source
Source Characteristics of the 23 October 2011 Mw 7.2 Van Earthquake model can fully resolve the rupture evolution. Using synthetic strong motion
Sequence in SE Anatolia data from the Source Inversion Validation ex. 1 we investigate what features of
GORGUN, E., Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey, ethem.gorgun@ the rupture can be resolved using finite-fault inversions, and focus on the shape
istanbul.edu.tr of the slip rate function. The synthetic data were generated from a dynamic
rupture with slip weakening friction. Thus the model has a slip rate function
On 2011 October 23, the Lake Van region in eastern Anatolia was hit by an that is approximately Kostrov/Yoffe. We invert for the kinematic parameters of
Mw = 7.2 earthquake. The Van-Erciž earthquake occurred 20 km east of Lake the rupture process using an asymmetric cosine function and a modified Yoffe
Van. Centroid moment tensors for 108 events with Mw between 4.0 and 7.2 function. We find nearly identical waveform fits to the synthetic data implying that

on 09 October 2018
the slip rate function at individual subfaults is not well resolved by the inversion the interactions between large-scale aseismic slow-slip and dynamic ruptures of
process. While the cumulative total moment rate function is well resolved, the megathrust earthquakes.
along-strike moment rate functions at various distances from the hypocenter are
not. One bothersome aspect of the dynamic model is the instantaneous rupture Seismic Rupture of Oceanic Strike-slip Earthquakes
of the patch (˜3.5x3.5 km2) around the hypocenter. Our kinematic rupture ADERHOLD, K., Boston University, Boston, MA, kasey@bu.edu;
nucleates at the hypocenter and evolves from there. This difference leads to timing ABERCROMBIE, R. E., Boston University, Boston, MA, rea@bu.edu
inconsistencies that must be mapped into the kinematic parameters given that the
waveforms are matched almost perfectly. For both slip rate functions our spatial Oceanic strike-slip faults provide a relatively simple thermal, compositional, and
distribution of slip is much more heterogeneous than the model. We are exploring geometric structure to study the rupture characteristics of strike-slip earthquakes. It
if this difference results from numerical damping or the choice of data being is generally accepted that seismic rupture on these faults is limited thermally to the
inverted—velocity waveforms vs displacement waveforms combined with the static depth of the 600-800ž isotherms, with supporting evidence from wave modeling
field. and laboratory experiments (Abercrombie and Ekström, 2003; Boettcher et al.,
2007). Ocean bottom seismometer deployments have provided unprecedented
clarity on the rupture process (McGuire et al., 2012), however they are also
Finite Fault Kinematic Inversion with Regional Data and its Utility for Tsunami expensive, short-term, and focused on a few faults. In order to fully characterize
Inundation Prediction the seismic behavior of oceanic strike-slip faults, we examine a large number of
MELGAR, D., University of California, Berkeley, CA, dmelgar@berkeley.edu; faults with a variety of lithospheric ages, spreading rates, and tectonic settings.
RIQUELME, S., Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile, sebastian@dgf.uchile.cl; We focus on three seismic areas that have hosted large (M=7.0) oceanic strike-
GENG, J., UC San Diego, La Jolla, CA, jgeng@ucsd.edu; ALLEN, R. M., slip earthquakes in the past three years: the Indian Ocean region, the Scotia
University of California , Berkeley, CA, rallen@berkeley.edu; BOCK, Y., UC San and South Sandwich Island region and the Queen Charlotte-Fairweather fault
Diego, La Jolla, CA, ybock@ucsd.edu off the coast of Alaska and Canada. We use teleseismic body-wave modeling
and finite fault inversion to determine fault orientation, depth extent of seismic
Rapid near-source earthquake source modeling relying only on seismic data is rupture, rupture velocity, and the distribution of slip along strike. We compare
limited by instrumental offsets and magnitude saturation, adversely affecting these results to thermal models, inferred compositional characteristics, and
subsequent tsunami prediction. Land-based displacement and velocity waveforms fore- and aftershock sequences to draw conclusions on how seismic rupture is
from an optimal combination of high-rate GPS and strong motion data overcome accommodated and controlled along oceanic strike-slip faults. Preliminary results
these limitations and can be used for initial assessment and prediction of tsunami show a deficiency in aftershocks relative to continental strike-slip earthquakes,
intensity. Additional information from offshore tsunami wave measurements as well as seismic rupture initiating in the younger, warmer section of the fault
from seafloor pressure sensors, GPS-equipped buoys or tide gauges can further
and advancing into older, colder lithosphere. The observations we make for
improve the image of the earthquake source and prediction of tsunami extent, oceanic strike-slip faults are useful as a comparison to continental strike-slip
inundation and runup. With examples from the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, 2011 faults that pose a greater hazard to large population centers, such as the San
Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki and 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique events we present a kinematic Andreas Fault in the Western United States and the North Anatolian Fault in
source modeling approach that utilizes these diverse data. The kinematic
Turkey.
model parameters are then used as initial conditions in a fully non-linear
tsunami propagation analysis. Notably, we include the horizontal advection
of steeply sloping bathymetric features. Comparison with post-event on-land The Depth-Dependent Potency of Subduction Zone Earthquakes
survey measurements demonstrates that the tsunami’s inundation and runup are NANJUNDIAH, P., Earth Observatory of Singapore(Nanyang Technological
predicted with considerable accuracy, only limited in scale by the resolution of University), Singapore, priyamva001@ntu.edu.sg; BARBOT, S., Earth
available topography and bathymetry. We conclude that it is possible to produce Observatory of Singapore(Nanyang Technological University), Singapore,
credible and rapid, kinematic source models and tsunami predictions within sbarbot@ntu.edu.sg
minutes of earthquake onset time for near-source coastal regions most susceptible
Earthquake ruptures relieve stress on faults, but the parameters controlling the
to loss of life and damage to critical infrastructure, regardless of earthquake
average stress-drop remain poorly understood. We document the potency of
magnitude.
39 earthquakes from Mw 6 to 9.2 from finite slip distributions for thrust or
subduction. We compute static stress change everywhere on the fault plane then
Dynamic Rupture vs Aseismic Slow-Slip: the 2014 Iquique Earthquake use the averaging method of Noda et al. (2013) to produce static stress drop.
Sequence This eliminates arbitrary choices in fault slip area. The catalogue of stress drop
MENG, L., UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, meng@ess.ucla.edu; HUANG, H., shows strong depth dependence, with algebraic reduction in stress drop with
Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China, oldyellow9451@gmail.com; depth, contrarily to what is observed with seismological estimates for greater-
BURGMANN, R., University of California, Berkeley, CA USA, burgmann@ depth earthquakes, and to the trend of rigidity increase with depth. We model the
seismo.berkeley.edu; AMPUERO, J. P., California Institute of Technology, variation of stress drop in the context of rate-and-state friction and earthquake
Pasadena, CA, ampuero@gps.caltech.edu; STRADER, A., UCLA, Los Angeles, cycles using the boundary integral method of Lapusta and Liu (2009). We
CA, astrader@ucla.edu systematically investigate the effect of the frictional parameters (a-b)σ on the
average stress drop of a single velocity-weakening asperity embedded in a velocity-
The transition between seismic rupture and aseismic creep is of central interest to strengthening region. Everything else being the same, variations in (a-b)σ affect
better understand the mechanics of subduction processes. A Mw 8.2 earthquake the overall dynamics of slip evolution, but we mitigate that effect by preserving
occurred on April 1st, 2014 in the Iquique seismic gap of northern Chile. This the ratio L/(a-b)/σ, where L is the critical weakening distance of the ageing law.
event was preceded by a foreshock sequence including a 2-week-long migration of We also study the impact of small velocity-strengthening barriers interspersing
seismicity initiated by a Mw 6.7 earthquake. Repeating earthquakes were found the larger asperity. Although the impact of barriers on stress drop is smaller than
among the foreshock sequence that migrated towards the mainshock hypocenter, first-order changes in frictional properties, they induce large variability through
suggesting a large-scale slow-slip event on the megathrust preceding the mainshock. the cycle. The change in earthquake stress drop with depth is likely the result of
The repeaters that were active only before the mainshock recurred more often and systematic reduction of (a-b)σ with depth accompanied by a reduction in fault
were distributed in areas of substantial coseismic slip, while repeaters that occurred roughness. Our results provide a quantitative estimate of earthquake potency that
both before and after the mainshock were in the area complementary to the can contribute to better characterizing earthquake and tsunami hazards across
mainshock rupture. Various finite fault models indicate that the largest coseismic collisions and subduction zones.
slip generally occurred down-dip from the foreshock activity and the mainshock
hypocenter. Source imaging by teleseismic back-projection indicates an initial
down dip propagation stage followed by a rupture-expansion stage. In stage 1, the
finite fault models show an emergent onset of moment rate at low frequency (< Advances in Earthquake Source Inversion
0.1 Hz), while back-projection shows a steady increase of high frequency power (> Poster Session · Thursday · 23 April · Exhibit Hall A
0.5 Hz). This indicates frequency-dependent manifestations of seismic radiation
in the low-stress foreshock region. In stage 2, the rupture expands in rich bursts
along the rim of a semi-elliptical region with episodes of re-ruptures, suggesting The Self-sSmilarity and Heterogeneity of Slip Distribution on the Fault
delayed failure of asperities. The high-frequency rupture remains within an area Surface
of local high gravity anomaly, suggesting the presence of subducting seamounts LEE, Y. T., National Central University, Jhongli, Taiwan, shine2530@gmail.com;
that promote high-frequency generation. Our results highlight the complexity of MA, K. F., National Central University, Jhongli, Taiwan, kuofongm@gmail.com;

on 09 October 2018
YEN, Y. T., Sinotech Engineering Consultants Inc., Taipei, Taiwan, not always met. Furthermore, teleseismic source inversion studies tend to treat the
alec.yen@gmail.com GF computation as a trivial component in the inversion, and this step is typically
not tested in detail. Here, we present teleseismic waveforms that were generated
We investigated the scaling self-similarity of asperity and slip distribution of by four different groups, utilizing three different GF calculation approaches. The
earthquakes. We compiled the finite fault slip models from the Taiwan orogenic waveforms were generated for the SIV_inv3 rupture model that represents a large
belt, and global earthquakes for displaying the self-similarity of slip distribution. strike-slip earthquake in southern California. The goal of this presentation is
This study considered 44 earthquakes (19 are Taiwan earthquakes and 25 are global to compare the synthetic waveforms and identify existing discrepancies in the
earthquakes) within the magnitude range from Mw=4.6 to 8.9 which include underlying GFs as well as their causal relation to the GF calculation approach. We
different fault types. Based on the definition of asperity as Sa (area with slip therefore validate the synthetic teleseismic waveforms for the SIV_inv3 inversion
large than 1.5 times of mean slip), we got a scaling relation between asperity and exercise, and highlight the challenges of computing GFs for large complex ruptures.
magnitude. As found in several large earthquakes, we observed that Sa is about
20% of effective rupture area. Besides, we analyzed the distribution of slip on the
fault surface. The fault slip displayed a self-similar scaling between rupture slip Effects of Three-Dimensional Crustal Structure and Smoothing Constraint
and area which can be shown as logRs=a+n(Rd) (where Rd is d/dm as the ratio on Earthquake Slip Inversions: Case Study of the Mw6.3 2009 L’aquila
of slip, d, to the average of effective slip, dm, Rs is A/Ae as the ratio of the fault Earthquake
area, A, where slip d>Rd × dm to the effective area, Ae). The effective area is GALLOVIC, F., Charles University in Prague, Prague, Czech Republic,
determined according to the normalization of the autocorrelation of slip in length gallovic@karel.troja.mff.cuni.cz; IMPERATORI, W., Swiss Seismological
and width. The scaling exponents can be seen as a measure for the roughness Service, Zurich, Switzerland, walter.imperatori@sed.ethz.ch; MAI, M., King
degree of the slip distribution on the fault surface. Very intriguing feature on the Abdullah University, Thuwal, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, martin.mai@kaust.
relationship of the average area ratio of the examined earthquakes (Mw>7.0) for edu.sa
Rs as function of Rd follows a similar scaling as logRs=-0.69Rd-0.09. In this study,
we also proposed a spatial complexity of stochastic earthquake model. We used the Earthquake slip inversions aiming to retrieve kinematic rupture characteristics
slip scaling relation and stochastic model to do the ground-motion simulation, and typically assume 1D velocity models and a flat Earth surface. However,
we do the verification with empirical attenuation equation. This study can be as a heterogeneous nature of the crust and presence of rough topography lead to seismic
good reference to give deterministic parameters for ground-motion prediction for scattering and other wave propagation phenomena, introducing complex 3D
earthquake hazard mitigation. effects on ground motions. Here we investigate how the use of imprecise Green’s
functions – achieved by including 3D velocity perturbations and topography –
A Kinematic Rupture Model for the 2012 Costa Rica Earthquake Derived with affect slip-inversion results. We create sets of synthetic seismograms, including 3D
a Bayesian Inversion Approach heterogeneous Earth structure and topography, and then invert these synthetics
ZIELKE, O., King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, using Green’s functions computed for a horizontally layered 1D Earth model.
Saudi Arabia, olaf.zielke@kaust.edu.sa; MCDOUGALL, D., University We apply a linear inversion, regularized by smoothing and positivity constraint,
of Texas, Austin, TX, damon.mcdougall@gmail.com; MAI, P. M., King and examine in detail how smoothing effects perturb the solution. Among others,
Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia, our tests and resolution analyses demonstrate how imprecise Green’s functions
martin.mai@kaust.edu.sa; BABUSKA, I., University of Texas, Austin, TX, introduce artificial slip-rate multiples especially at shallow depths and that the
babuska@ices.utexas.edu timing of the peak slip-rate is hardly affected by the chosen smoothing. The
investigation is extended to recordings of the 2009 Mw 6.3 L’Aquila earthquake,
One of the main topics in earthquake (EQ) physics is gaining a better considering both strong motion and high-rate GPS stations. We interpret the
understanding of the rupture process. Because a direct observation of parameters inversion results taking into account the lessons learned from the synthetic tests.
that control the rupture process is not possible, inversion approaches are frequently The retrieved slip model resembles previously published solutions using geodetic
utilized to constrain EQ kinematic rupture models, which in turn reflect on data, showing a large-slip asperity south-east of the hypocenter. In agreement with
those rupture-controlling parameters. Here we present a statistical (Bayesian) other studies, we find evidence for fast but sub-shear rupture propagation in up-
inversion approach based on an open-source library for uncertainty quantification dip direction, followed by a delayed propagation along strike. We conjecture that
(UQ) called QUESO. Statistical inversions have the advantage with respect to rupture was partially inhibited by a deep localized velocity-strengthening patch that
deterministic approaches that they provide not only a single (non-unique) solution subsequently experienced afterslip.
but also provide uncertainty bounds with it. In that regard, statistical approaches
better reflect on the values and uncertainties of the rupture-controlling parameters.
The presented inversion scheme uses only tele-seismically recorded body-waves but Slab Correction Operator
future developments may lead us towards joint inversion schemes. After giving BAI, K., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, kbai@caltech.edu;
an insight into the inversion scheme itself (which is based on delayed rejection LI, D., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, dli@gps.caltech.edu;
adaptive metropolis sampling, DRAM), we first present synthetic test cases to HELMBERGER, D., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
highlight the method’s resolution potential and limitations. Then, we apply our helm@gps.caltech.edu
inversion scheme to seismograms from a real EQ (the 2012 M7.6 Costa Rica Most finite fault inversions require the generation of a large number of synthetics.
earthquake –which is deemed representative of EQs we will apply this inversion This becomes viable by excluding ranges except in the lower mantle where ray paths
scheme on) and provide a kinematic rupture model for it. We further compare
encounter smooth velocity gradients and become easily approximated at distances
this model with deterministically derived rupture models (i.e., provided by other 30 degree to 90 degree. Thus, plane-wave approximations in the source region and
research groups) to identify the merits of the presented inversion scheme. at the receiver can be convolved together along with a spreading operator, Os(t),
usually assumed to be a delta function along with an amplitude factor to generate
Green’s Function Calculation for Large and Complex Ruptures –the SIV_in3
synthetics. However the presence of slabs can introduce additional complexity as
Experience recently demonstrated, Zhan et al (2014). Hence, we develop a slab correction
ZIELKE, O., King Abdullah University, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia, operator replacing Os(t) that corrects for specified slab geometry. This procedure
olaf.zielke@kaust.edu.sa; OKUWAKI, R., University of Tsukuba,
allows 1D synthetics to be convolved by this operator before comparing against
Tsukuba City, Japan, rokuwaki@gmail.com; VAN DRIEL, M., observations. Numerical tests demonstrates the usefulness of this approach.
Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule ETH, Zuerich, Switzerland,
vandriel@tomo.ig.erdw.ethz.ch; POLLITZ, F., US Geological Service, Menlo
Park, CA, fpollitz@usgs.gov; YAGI, Y., University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba City, Near Realtime, Multi-Approach Earthquake Source Inversions, and an
Japan, yagi-y@geol.tsukuba.ac.jp; MAI, P. M., King Abdullah University, Thuwal, Extensive, Consistent Finite Fault Database
Saudi Arabia, martin.mai@kaust.edu.sa HAYES, G. P., U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center,
Golden, CO, ghayes@usgs.gov; BENZ, H. M., U.S. Geological Survey National
At the core of earthquake source inversion schemes lies the generation of Greens Earthquake Information Center, Golden, CO, benz@usgs.gov; BARNHART,
Functions (GF) which appropriately combine the elastic and anelastic effects of W. D., University of Iowa , Iowa City, IA, william-barnhart-1@uiowa.edu
propagation from source to receiver. Many approaches have been formulated to
generate these GFs for (teleseismic) waves, including ray-theory based methods, The United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Earthquake Information
Haskell propagator matrix methods, frequency-wavenumber integration methods, Center (NEIC) has been producing finite fault models for large (M˜>7) global
and 3D finite-element or spectral-element methods. Within the limitations of each earthquakes for the past decade, providing analyses of the distribution of fault slip
approach, these should provide essentially identical GFs. However, as was indicated for consumption by other key earthquake response tools (e.g., USGS ShakeMap),
in an early stage of the source inversion validation (SIV) effort, this assumption is the general public, and academia, within hours of the earthquake’s occurrence.

on 09 October 2018
Such models have been downloaded, distributed and used extensively over the and 7.0 are computed by applying a waveform inversion method. The time span
same time period. Recently, the NEIC has expanded its efforts in source inversion of data covers the period between 2014 May 24 - June 26. The mainshock is a
to include multiple complementary approaches, utilizing teleseismic body- and shallow focus strike-slip event at a depth of 15 km. Focal depths of aftershocks
surface-waves, either teleseismic dataset alone, geodetic data, and/or multiple data range from 5 to 30 km. The seismic moment (Mo) of the mainshock is estimated
sets simultaneously. Here we present results from a range of modeling approaches 4.60 × 1019 Nm. The focal mechanisms of the aftershocks are mainly strike-
for several recent significant earthquakes, showing how models vary among data slip faulting with a variable and sometimes significant normal component. This
sets and inversion techniques, and how their differences and similarities can be used geometry indicates a strike-slip faulting regime with NE-SW trending direction of
to provide information on the robustness of inversion results. For the first time, we T-axis in the entire activated region. A Stress tensor inversion of focal mechanism
also provide an online database of finite fault models that is near complete for all data is performed to obtain a more accurate picture of the Gokceada earthquake
M7.5+ events since 2000, and all M8+ events since 1990, such that models can be stress field. The stress tensor inversion results show a predominant strike-
compared under the auspices of one or more uniform inversion approaches. Results slip stress regime with a NW-SE to NNE-SSW oriented maximum horizontal
from analyses of these models will be discussed further in this presentation, and all compressive stress (SH). The secondary fault system striking mostly E-W is
models will be provided in a variety of formats to those interested though the new activated generally with normal faulting component in the east of the mainshock.
online NEIC database, ComCat. This difference in mechanism suggests that towards the east, a different fault
system is activated with respect to the NE-SW trending strike-slip faults beneath
Foreshocks and Nucleation Process of the Mw 6.3 Northern Nagano Gokceada Island and more to the west. Thus, to first order, the Gokceada
Prefecture, Japan, Earthquake of November 22, 2014 Island earthquake region is characterized by a homogeneous intraplate stress
NODA, S., U. S. Geological Survey and Railway Technical Research Institute, field.
Menlo Park, CA and Tokyo, Japan, snoda@usgs.gov; ELLSWORTH, W. L., U.
S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, ellsworth@usgs.gov Rapid Assessment of Earthquake Characteristics
LUI, S. K. Y., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
On November 22, 2014 at 13:08:18 UCT the Kamishiro Fault in northern klui@caltech.edu; YU, J., CGG, Houston, TX, junjie.caltech@gmail.com;
Nagano Prefecture, Japan, ruptured in a reverse faulting earthquake with Mw WEI, S., Earthquake Observatory of Singapore, Singapore, shjwei@ntu.edu.sg;
reported between 6.2 (USGS) and 6.38 (ERI) and MJMA 6.7. A brief, but
GRAVES, R. W., USGS, Pasadena, CA; HELMBERGER, D. V., California
intense foreshock sequence preceded the main shock by 4 days. In this study we Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, helm@gps.caltech.edu
examine the relationship between the foreshocks and the initiation process of the
main shock using seismograms recorded on the nearby stations of the NIED HI- Recent studies emphasize the rapid assessment of earthquake source properties,
NET, KIK-Net and K-Net networks. The initial burst of foreshocks included six such as magnitude, to help alleviate the impact of earthquakes. For large
earthquakes between MJMA 2 and 2.8, all concentrated in the immediate vicinity earthquakes, it is also important to predict rupture directivity which is essential
of the main shock hypocenter. Foreshocks declined abruptly in number after the in assessing the ground motion effect with azimuth. This appears possible as
first few hours, although they continued to occur sporadically until the time of the demonstrated on a pair of intraslab event in the Tohoku-Oki region where using
main shock, with the last detected foreshock (MJMA 0.0) 13 minutes before it the small event as an empirical Green’s function (EGF) allowed the direction
initiated. The earthquake began with a 0.1 s duration seismic nucleation phase of of rupture to be established. CAP results (Zhu and Helmberger, 1994), which
Mw 3.0, followed by accelerating growth of the moment rate over the next ¡ s of allows timing shifts between observed segments, indicate that the centroid position
rupture. The initial motion in the seismogram of the seismic nucleation phase is (CP) shifts with time, CP(t), agreeing with the simulation results. On the other
indistinguishable from the largest foreshocks, suggesting that the initiating event hand, the studies by Wei et al. (2013, 2014) demonstrated that some close-in
may have been a foreshock that triggered a stronger subevent at 0.1 s into the event observations can be modeled with Green’s functions good to 3 Hz. While such
as the earthquake continued to grow. Main shock seismograms recorded in the near Green’s functions prove essential in obtaining distributed rupture patterns for
field display continuing high-frequency complexity throughout the course of the small events, they can also be used in early warning. In particular, the use of Green’s
earthquake suggesting a cascading failure process. To better resolve the space-time functions would allow rupture directivity estimation much faster than using EGF.
evolution of the nucleation process, we will report on kinematic modeling of the Preliminary results also indicate that the moment can be estimated after 5 s along
initial moments of the earthquake and compare it to more traditional methods of with mechanism after 6 s for some events in the Imperial Valley and in the LA
hypocentral analysis. Basin. Here we report on in-depth study of the Fontana 2014 (M 4.4) sequence,
events near the intersection of the San Jacinto and San Andreas fault systems, as a
A Systematic Investigation of the Relations Among Source Parameters for test of how fast and how accurate one can assess earthquake source and rupture
Earthquakes At Intermediate Depths properties with a combination of these methods. This M 4.4 sequence can also
ARCE, A., University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, arce@umail.ucsb.edu; be used as an EGF in modeling larger events in the area and rapid assessment
JI, C., University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, ji@geol.ucsb.edu; methodology.
ARCHULETA, R. J., University of California , Santa Barbara, CA, ralph@
eri.ucsb.edu
Intermediate-depth earthquakes are events with a hypocentral depth of 70 – 250

km. As they occur at depths where temperatures and pressures exceed those at
which brittle failure is expected, their physical mechanism has not been fully Capturing Site Effects in Strong Ground Motion
resolved yet. Recent examples in Chile and Indonesia illustrate that the rupture Poster Session · Thursday · 23 April · Exhibit Hall A
of large intermediate depth earthquakes could lead to significant seismic hazard.
In this study, a survey of the large (Mw>6.7) intermediate earthquakes since
2000 is conducted. Teleseismic body and surface waves are used to constrain their Quantification of the Spatially Variable Ground Motion and its Influence
slip histories using a nonlinear finite fault inversion algorithm. The solutions on the Linear and Non-linear Structural Response of a Single Degree of
are subsequently used to investigate the relationships among fault parameters. Freedom. Application to the Shallow Sedimentary Valley of Argostoli, Greece
Preliminary analyses of 12 earthquakes reveal good correlations among the seismic KOUFOUDI, E., University of Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France,
moment, rupture area, and fault length but poor correlations between maximum eleni.koufoudi@3sr-grenoble.fr; CORNOU, C., University of Grenoble,
displacement and magnitude. More solutions will be added in a future effort. The CNRS, Grenoble, France; GRANGE, S., University of Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble,
uncertainties associated with inverted fault parameters and the impact of more France; DUFOUR, F., University of Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France; IMTIAZ,
precise synthetic seismogram algorithm will be investigated as well. The results may A., University of Grenoble, CNRS, Grenoble, France
shed the light on the physical mechanism of intermediate depth earthquakes.
The term “spatial variability of seismic ground motions” denotes the differences
in the amplitude and phase content of seismic motions recorded over extended
Focal Mechanisms of the 24 May 2014 Mw 7.0 North Aegean Sea Earthquake
Sequence areas but even within the dimensions of a structure. At few tens of meters scale,
GORGUN, B., Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey, burcakgorgun81@ such spatial variability may indeed have important effect on the response of
gmail.com; GORGUN, E., Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey , ethem. extended lifelines because of the spatially variable contributions applied at different
gorgun@istanbul.edu.tr supports of the structure. The goal of the present study is to quantify the spatially
variable ground motion and consequences on the structural response in the shallow
On 2014 May 24, the Gokceada Island in northern Aegean Sea region was hit sedimentary basin of Argostoli, Greece. Indeed, the present study makes use of
by an Mw = 7.0 earthquake. The Gokceada earthquake occurred 43 km SW of around 400 seismic events recorded by a 21-element very dense seismological array
Gokceada Island. Centroid moment tensors for 40 events with Mw between 3.3 with interstation spacing ranging from 5 to 160 meters. Composed of broad-band

on 09 October 2018
three-component velocimeters, this array was deployed in the basin of Argostoli and OpenStreetMap, has been developed to depict the data and is expected to be
during 6 months and recorded local, regional and teleseismic events. The spatial the main USGS web portal for accessing VS30 data. An option to download the
correlation structure and input motion variability is first evaluated in terms of peak complete VS30 compilation will also be available on the USGS website.
ground displacement and by considering broad-band time series and filtered ones
within various frequency bands from 0.5 to 20 Hz. Next, the structural response Simulation of the Basin Effects in the Po Plain During the Emilia-Romagna
of a single degree of freedom (SDOF) system with various fundamental periods is Seismic Sequence (2012)
estimated in terms of maximum top displacement of the system. The variability DUJARDIN, A., Université de Nice Sophia Antipolis - Géoazur - CNRS,
of the linear elastic structural response is found to increase from 8% to 15% from
Valbonne Sophia Antipolis, France, dujardin@geoazur.unice.fr; CAUSSE,
0.5 to 20 Hz (which is consistent with a decrease of the correlation between peak
M., Université Joseph Fourier - ISTerre - IFSTTAR, Grenoble, France,
ground motion values with increased frequencies), with however larger variabilities
mathieu.causse@ujf-grenoble.fr; COURBOULEX, F., Université de Nice
observed within two narrow frequency ranges, between 1.5 and 1.7 Hz and between
Sophia Antipolis - Géoazur - CNRS, Valbonne Sophia Antipolis, France,
3 and 4 Hz. Such high variabilities are caused by locally edge-generated diffracted
courboulex@geoazur.unice.fr; TRAVERSA, P., EDF - DIN - CEIDRE - TEGG,
surface waves, namely the fundamental mode of Love waves and the first higher
Aix-en-Provence, France, paola.traversa@edf.fr
mode of Rayleigh waves, that strongly dominate the ground motion wavefield
within those specific frequency bands. Then, the non-linear elastoplatic structural On May-June 2012 occurred the strongest seismic sequence recorded in the Po
response of the SDOF system is investigated and shows that the variability of the plain (Northern Italy) since the development of modern seismometric digital
structural response is almost constantly increased by 5% compared to the linear networks in Italy. The Po plain is a wide and thick sedimentary basin. The
structural response. seismic sequence has been widely recorded by the dense permanent and temporary
networks. The large amount of ground motion recordings are characterized by
strong amplitude surface waves, reflecting the trapping of seismic waves inside the
Site-Effects from the Observed Strong Ground Motions in Western China basin. The aim of this work is to test the validity of the Empirical Green’s functions
RONG, M., Institute of Crustal Dynamics, Beijing, China, (EGFs) approach in such a peculiar geological context. We choose to work on the
rongmianshui@gmail.com; WANG, Z., University of Kentucky, Lexington, May 29, 2012 second mainshock (Mw 5.9) because it has been particularly well
KY, zmwang@uky.edu; WOOLERY, E. W., University of Kentucky, recorded. The fault rupture process is described using a self similar k-2 kinematic
Lexington, KY, woolery@uky.edu; LU, Y., Institute of Crustal Dynamics, source model. A set of 100 different slip distributions on the fault plane is used to
Beijing, China, luyj1@263.net; LI, X., Institute of Geophysics, Beijing, China, generate synthetic broad-band ground motions (from 0.2 to 35 Hz) on 15 selected
beerli@vip.sina.com stations from 4 to 160 km. The comparison of the data and the simulations proves
the ability of the method to reproduce the frequency content of the target event,
In recent years the National Strong Motion Observation Network System
which enables us to obtain consistent values of PGA and PGV up to 160 km, and
(NSMONS) of China has accumulated a wealth of strong-motion data from
to reproduce the increase of the signal duration. A Stockwell transform analysis
moderate-to-large earthquakes in western China. The database, consisting of more
shows that the time-frequency distribution of ground motion is well reproduced
than 5000 records, provides a unique opportunity to study site-effects, particularly
by the simulations, in particular the surface wave characteristics are consistent with
non-linear soil response. The ground-motion records from the mainshocks
the observations.
and aftershocks of the 2008 Wenchuan (Ms 8.0) and 2010 Lushan (Ms 7.0)
earthquakes within a 300 km epicentral distance were selected from the database
for assessment. The spectral ratios of the horizontal component (SH-wave) to Updating the Memphis Area Urban Seismic and Liquefaction Hazard Maps
the vertical component (SV-wave) from the observed events were computed and DHAR, M. S., The University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, msdhar@
analyzed for each station, then compared with the calculated spectral ratios from memphis.edu; CRAMER, C. H., The University of Memphis, Memphis,
the 1-D equivalent-linear algorithm (i.e., SHAKE91) based on each station’s TN, ccramer@memphis.edu; ARELLANO, D., The University of Memphis,
dynamic soil profile and using scaled observation records from nearby stations on Memphis, TN, darellan@memphis.edu
rock as input motions. The results show that the horizontal-to-vertical spectral
ratios are comparable with those calculated from the 1-D equivalent-linear model; We are completing a three-year update of the Memphis area urban seismic and
however, the results also clearly show the non-linear site response: i.e. decreasing liquefaction hazard maps. In 2004, probabilistic and scenario urban hazard maps
predominant frequency with increasing ground motion amplitude with a threshold were first generated for the six-quadrangle area centered on Memphis and southern
peak ground acceleration at about 50 cm/s/s. Shelby County (Cramer et al., 2004, 2006, 2008) in SW Tennessee using a 3D
geology model and the 2002 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) national seismic
hazard model (Frankel et al., 2002). In 2012-13 the urban seismic hazard maps
A Compilation of VS30 in the United States were updated and expanded to all of Shelby County (12+ quadrangles). The 3D
YONG, A., USGS, Pasadena, CA, yong@usgs.gov; THOMPSON, E. M., San geology model has been updated using the Stevens (2007) data and modeling
Diego State University, San Diego, CA, ethompson@mail.sdsu.edu; WALD, D. approach plus additional well log control gathered during the summer of 2012.
J., USGS, Golden, CO, wald@usgs.gov; KNUDSEN, K. L., USGS, Menlo Park, Seismic hazard maps were generated by including the effects of local geology into
CA, kknudsen@usgs.gov; ODUM, J. K., USGS, Golden, CO, odum@usgs.gov; the 2008 USGS national seismic hazard model and attenuation relations (Petersen
STEPHENSON, W. J., USGS, Golden, CO, wstephens@usgs.gov; HAEFNER, et al., 2008) and preliminary updated liquefaction hazard maps were generated
S., USGS, Menlo Park, CA, shaefner@usgs.gov using the Memphis liquefaction hazard map approach of Cramer et al. (2008)
and the liquefaction cumulative probability curves provided by Romaro-Hudock
VS30, the time-averaged shear-wave velocity (VS) in the upper 30 meters, is a key and Rix, 2005 (Cramer et al., 2013). A more uniform shallow Vs model based on
index adopted by the earthquake engineering community to account for seismic Romaro and Rix (2001) is also used to adjust the effect of 3D geology in the urban
site conditions. VS30 is typically based on geophysical measurements of VS at seismic hazard maps (Cramer et al., 2014). Now we are updating the geotechnical
sites of interest. Due to cost considerations, as well as logistical and environmental contribution to the Memphis area urban hazard maps by adding more SPT data
concerns, VS30 data have often been sparse or not readily available. To help and revising liquefaction cumulative probability curves for each of the surficial
remedy this situation, the USGS has compiled VS30 results obtained by studies geological units. The revised liquefaction cumulative potential curves and the 2014
funded by the USGS and other governmental agencies, and plans to make the USGS national seismic hazard model and attenuation relations (Petersen et al.,
data openly accessible. Thus far, VS30 data have been compiled for approximately 2014) will be used to generate updated urban seismic and liquefaction probability
3,000 sites in the U.S., along with metadata (site name, coordinates, maximum hazard maps for Shelby County. Probabilistic ground motion changes are about
depth of investigation, citation, etc.) for each site. Data were predominantly ±5-10% from the 2008 to the 2014 USGS model, but scenario ground motions
collected from government-sponsored reports, websites and scientific/engineering are lower for the 2014 set of attenuation relations.
journals. Most of the data in our VS30 compilation originated from publications
directly reported by field investigators. A smaller subset (< 20%) of VS30 Seismic Amplification in the Los Angeles Basin Using Spectral Ratio
values was previously compiled by the USGS or other research institutions. Analysis: Preliminary Results from a Temporary Seismic Deployment
Whenever possible, VS30 values originating from these earlier compilations were NG, R., California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, CA,
crosschecked against published reports. VS30 values, based on downhole and/or raymondn@csupomona.edu; BARKLAGE, M., NodalSeismic, Long Beach,
surface geophysical techniques, are represented in our VS30 compilation. Most CA, mbarklage@nodalseismic.com; POLET, J., California State Polytechnic
of the data reflect VS30 in the western contiguous U.S. (2,141), while 786 VS30 University, Pomona, CA
values were compiled for the central-eastern U.S. region; 72 sites with VS30 values
were also compiled for Alaska (15), Hawaii (30) and Puerto Rico (27). A prototype It is well established that sedimentary basins, such as the LA basin, can significantly
interactive map, employing Leaflet JavaScript libraries and maps from MapQuest amplify earthquake ground motion and increase its duration. Past earthquakes have

on 09 October 2018
shown that site effects have a major influence on seismic damage and loss in urban Evaluation of Topographic Rock Sites as Reference Sites, Southeastern
areas. However, the response at any given site can vary significantly, even within France: Application of the Frequency-Scaled Curvature Proxy
the LA basin. To account for basin response, improve the understanding of the MAUFROY, E., ISTerre, Grenoble, France, emeline.maufroy@ujf-grenoble.fr;
damaging ground motions produced in earthquakes and develop better seismic PERRON, V., CEA, Cadarache, France, vincent.perron2@cea.fr; HOLLENDER,
hazard assessment and mitigation in this highly developed area, it is essential to F., CEA, Cadarache, France, fabrice.hollender@cea.fr; LANGLAIS, M., ISTerre,
determine site characteristics, such as fundamental frequency and amplification, Grenoble, France, mickael.langlais@ujf-grenoble.fr; CRUZ-ATIENZA, V. M.,
across the basin at a high spatial resolution. We will present the results of Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico, cruz@geofisica.unam.mx;
the application of the Horizontal-to-Vertical (H/V) spectral ratio approach on COTTON, F., GFZ, Potsdam, Germany, fcotton@gfz-potsdam.de
data gathered from the Los Angeles Syncline Seismic Interferometry Experiment
(LASSIE). LASSIE is a temporary, dense, array of 73 broadband seismometers that Defining an accurate reference site is of major importance for the reliable
transects the Los Angeles basin from Long Beach to La Puente. Collaborators for estimation of the nearby site effects but also for deriving GMPE. In mountainous
this experiment are from both industry and academia, and include NodalSeismic, areas, selecting a rock site as a reference can become a challenge due to the intricate
Occidental Petroleum, Signal Hill Petroleum, USGS, UCLA, Caltech, and Cal topography, known to produce ground-motion amplifications or deamplifications
Poly Pomona. The seismometers were deployed for at least one month to record whose patterns present strong spatial and source-related variabilities. A recent
continuous 3-component broadband waveforms. This data will be processed effort has been dedicated to characterize the shear wave velocity profile at
using the Geopsy software to measure the fundamental frequency and minimum the accelerometric stations of the permanently-instrumented network in the
relative site amplification at each seismometer location. Ambient noise data Southeastern France. The 3D topographic site effect (defined here as the effect
will be analyzed in accordance to the Site Effects Assessment Using Ambient of pure surface geometry) is also estimated at these sites by the recently-
Excitations (SESAME) guidelines for implementing the H/V ratio technique. developed Frequency-Scaled Curvature (FSC) proxy. It allows the determination
We will show maps of the amplification and fundamental frequency based on of topographic features with similar characteristic dimensions and probabilistic
our spectral ratio analysis of the LASSIE data and compare our results with estimates of amplification values accounting on the phenomenon variability. The
damage patterns of historic earthquakes, as well as existing models of the LA topographic-amplification function is directly predicted from the Digital Elevation
basin. Map provided reasonable values of the local S-wave velocity. This presentation
focuses on application issues to field cases: (1) impact of the DEM resolution on
the maximum frequency reached by the proxy, (2) mapping of spatial variability for
selecting less-impacted sites, (3) comparison of predictions with actual recordings,
Vs30, Topographic Slope, Z1: How Do Site-Condition Proxies Reduce Ground-
and (4) impact of a weak coverage in earthquake back azimuths. This first
Motion aAeatory Variability?
application of the FSC proxy coupled to the measures of the seismic velocities
DERRAS, B., ISTerre, Grenoble Alpes University, Grenoble, France, derrasb@ujf-
illustrates the variety of site responses that is reached over topographic rock sites.
grenoble.fr; COTTON, F., GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscien, Potsdam,
This development will help to enhance the metadata of the French accelerometric
Germany, fcotton@gfz-potsdam.de; BARD, P. Y., ISTerre, IFSTTAR, Grenoble
permanent network for a better use of the recorded signals, but will also lead
Alpes University, Grenoble, France, pierre-yves.bard@ujf-grenoble.fr
to a robust procedure to choose accurate reference location for future station
We have tested the ability of various site-condition proxies to reduce the ground- installations.
motion aleatory variability. Three site proxies, widely used to predict ground-
motions, have been considered: measured Vs30, inferred Vs30 and the local Improving the Understanding of the Link between Seismic Site Effects and
topographic slope. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach and a random- the Geological Profile for Sites in the United Kingdom
effects like procedure have been used for the derivation of GMPEs setting the TALLETT-WILLIAMS, S., Imperial College London, London, UK,
relationship between various ground motion parameters (PGA, PGV and 5% ST1309@imperial.ac.uk; FENTON, C., Imperial College London, London,
damped pseudo-spectral acceleration PSA from 0.01 s to 4 s), and event / station UK, c.fenton@imperial.ac.uk
meta-parameters (moment magnitude Mw, Joyner- Boore distance RJB, and site
proxies Vs30 or slope). This analysis shows the lower and rather poor performance Site effects have proven to increase dramatically the shaking experienced from
of the local topographic slope and inferred Vs30 in reducing the GMPE aleatory seismic waves even for low magnitude earthquakes. However, in perceived low
variability, compared to the performance of measured Vs30. We also have tested seismicity countries, these effects can be overlooked in the face of large and
the added value of the knowledge of Z1 (thickness at Vs=1000 m/sec). We complex infrastructure projects despite the vulnerability of the population in
combine the effect of [Vs30- Z1] and [slope- Z1] to test the complementarity of the event of failure. In ongoing research into the uncharacterised UK strong
the two types of parameters. We show the lower performance of the use Z1 and ground motion stations, we aim to link information about the geological profile
slope alone compared to the performance of the use of both parameters (VS30 /Z1 beneath each station to a growing worldwide database for shear wave velocities of
or slope/Z1). geological strata. Preliminary testing of this method was carried out in the southern
half of the UK using methods such as passive H/V analysis and Seismic Cone
Penetration Testing. Early results have indicated the importance of the state of
the supposed rock head. If weathered sufficiently, this has been found to produce
Investigation of the Ground Motion Variability Associated with Site Response
soil like shear wave velocities, notably decreasing an expected time averaged shear
for Sites with Vs30 Over 500 m/s
wave velocity in the top 30m (Vs30 ) compared to a model of soil on solid
YAGODA-BIRAN, G., Geological Survey of Israel, Jerusalem, Israel,
rock.
gonyb@gsi.gov.il; ANDERSON, J. G., University of Nevada, Reno, NV,
jga@unr.edu
Development of an Open-Source Hybrid Global Vs30 Model
Understanding, with the goal of reducing, uncertainties in ground motion WORDEN, C. B., Synergetics, Inc., Ft Collins, CO, cbworden@usgs.gov;
prediction is a high priority for seismic hazard analysis. We examine phi s2s , the WALD, D. J., USGS, Golden, CO, wald@usgs.gov; SANBORN, J., USGS,
variability in synthetic ground motions at rock sites caused by the variability in Golden, CO; THOMPSON, E. M., San Diego State University, San Diego, CA,
randomly-generated velocity profiles of the geological column from 5 km depth ethompson@mail.sdsu.edu
to the surface. Only sites with Vs30 of 500 m/s or higher are considered, and
linearity is assumed. These synthetic estimates of the mean value of phi s2s are The time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 meters (Vs30) is frequently
a complicated, but understandable, function of magnitude, period and Vs30 . used as a proxy for ground motion site amplification. However, detailed Vs30
The distribution of modeled residual response spectral amplitudes at several measurements are typically only obtained at a limited number of locations, and are
oscillator periods is not lognormal, but the deviations are in the central part of thus unavailable over the broad areas needed by applications such as ShakeMap,
the distribution, where the effect on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) hazard maps, and loss estimates. In recent years, the use of topographic slope to
may not be very large. Adding another constraint to the velocity profile, namely estimate Vs30 has become a convenient proxy for mapping Vs30. Current models,
that the shear wave velocity of the uppermost layer should be at least 70% of Vs30 , however, have different slope-to-Vs30 coefficients for stable shield and active
greatly reduces the uncertainty at high frequencies. We tentatively call sites with tectonic environments and benefit from regionalized terms where they can be
this property "non-resonant rock", since it excludes sites with a strong resonance constrained. Using a global stable shield model allows one to select the appropriate
in a thin shallow layer. The reduction in uncertainty that this allows might reduce default coefficients for each region; however, it creates abrupt, non-physical
or eliminate the contradiction between the US National Seismic Hazard Map transitions from one region to another. Here we use the USGS GMTED2010
and precarious rocks in Southern California. Furthermore, for non-resonant rock global digital elevation model, a global active tectonic/shield model, and custom
sites the residual impact of the ergodic assumption might be reduced to more software to create a global model of Vs30. The software produces a smooth Vs30
tolerable levels. transition between stable shield and active tectonic regions, while preserving the

on 09 October 2018
details of geologic structure. Additional software allows custom regional Vs30 maps Switzerland, edwards@sed.ethz.ch; POGGI, V., Swiss Seismological Service,
to be embedded within the regional/global framework while, again, smoothing the Zurich, Switzerland, v.poggi@sed.ethz.ch; BURJANEK, J., Swiss Seismological
transition between the background and embedded maps and preserving the details Service, Zurich, Switzerland, burjanek@sed.ethz.ch; CAUZZI, C., Swiss
of geologic structure. The global map can be generated at 7.5, 15, and 30, arc- Seismological Service„ Zurich, Switzerland, carlo.cauzzi@sed.ethz.ch; FÄH, D.,
seconds resolutions. To date we have embedded custom Vs30 maps of California Swiss Seismological Service„ Zurich, Switzerland, donat.faeh@sed.ethz.ch
and Taiwan (based upon hybrid kriging techniques), the US states of Washington,
Oregon, and Utah (based upon geologic maps), and Japan (based upon the J-SHIS The critical effect of surface geology on seismic hazard has been amply
model). Our hope is that the open-source nature of this project will encourage demonstrated, though data is still lacking in many regions to assess is
others to contribute both to the software development and to the addition of new accurately. The Swiss Seismological Service operates one of the densest national
regional Vs30 models. URL: https://github.com/usgs/earthquake-global_vs30 seismic network in the world, still rapidly expanding. Since 2009, every newly
instrumented site is characterized following an established procedure, through
H/V Measurements to Determine Depth of Bedrock and Vs30 in Boston, which realistic 1D velocity profiles are derived. In addition, empirical spectral
Massachusetts, a High Impedance Contrast Environment modeling is systematically performed on the whole network for each recorded
BAISE, L. G., Tufts University, Medford, MA, laurie.baise@tufts.edu; YILAR, event with sufficient signal-to-noise ratio. Besides the source characteristics of
E., Tufts University, Medford, MA, erkan.yilar@tufts.edu; EBEL, J. E., Boston the earthquakes, statistical analysis of the residuals provides the amplification
College, Chestnut Hill, MA, john.ebel@bc.edu function at every station, constantly updated when new events are recorded. The
site characterization procedure is mainly based on the analysis of surface waves,
Seismic microzonation is an important step in seismic risk and loss studies for particularly from passive experiments, and includes cross checks of the derived
densely populated urban regions. Microtremor studies using H/V measurements amplification functions with those obtained through spectral modeling. The
to determine the fundamental site period can be an inexpensive and efficient systematic use of three component surface-wave analysis, allowing the derivation
method to map site effects. Microtremor studies are particularly effective in high of both Rayleigh and Love dispersion curves, also contributes to the improvement
impedance contrast environments like Boston, Massachusetts, where the soil depth of the quality of the retrieved profiles. The results over the lately installed strong-
ranges from 1-60 m and the soil overlays hard glacial till or bedrock. Ambient motion stations on sites covering different aspects of seismic risk give an overview
microtremor noise data were collected from 580 locations in the greater Boston of the variety of possible effects of surface geology on ground motion in the Alpine
area. Nakamura’s technique, taking the ratio of the fast Fourier transform of area. Such effects ranged from deamplification at hard- rock sites to amplification
horizontal components to vertical component, was applied to determine the up to a factor of 15 in lacustrine sediments with respect to the Swiss reference
fundamental site period (FSP) and amplification ratio. The FSP was mapped across rock velocity model. The derived velocity profiles are shown to reproduce observed
the region to show a consistent pattern with the geologic and geomorphologic amplification functions from empirical spectral modeling. Although many sites are
information for the region. The FSP data were then paired with a depth to bedrock found to exhibit 1D behavior, the procedure allows the detection and qualification
database from 3500 boring logs and Vs30 estimates taken from 31 shear-wave of 2D and 3D effects.
velocity profiles across the region. The depth of bedrock and FSP are highly
correlated. FSP and Vs30 measurements are also highly correlated. The resulting
FSP/Vs30 correlation is comparable with that found in similar studies from high Clark County’s Earthquake Parcel Map: Comprehensive Community
impedance contrast regions in Canada and Japan. The FSP (0.8 s) calculated from Resilience for $20 per Household
microtremor data at the Northeastern Vertical Array in the Back Bay of Boston LOUIE, J. N., University of Nevada, Reno, NV, louie@seismo.unr.edu;
where the sediment thickness is 51 m was consistent with the FSP (0.7 s) calculated PULLAMMANAPPALLIL, S. K., Optim, Reno, NV, satish@
for the site using earthquake records from the 2011 Mw 5.8 Mineral, Virginia optimsoftware.com
earthquake. Overall, the outcomes of the study demonstrate that microtremor
Rapid growth of the Las Vegas, Nevada urban area over the last 50 years resulted in
studies can be used in high impedance contrast environments to reliably and
a population of over 2 million exposed to earthquake risks. Federal agencies did not
consistently estimate FSP, depth to bedrock, and Vs30.
allocate funds to protect this new population and economy. Local municipalities
thus sponsored the measurement of an “Earthquake Parcel Map” in 2007. With
Passive and Active Seismic Observations of Site and Topographic Response
implementation of the IBC and its NEHRP provisions, local property owners,
on a Mesa near Los Alamos, New Mexico
builders, developers, and engineers agreed it would be most cost-effective for
STOLTE, A. C., University of Texas, Austin, TX, a.c.stolte@gmail.com; COX, B.
municipalities to provide consistent and efficient site measurements. The building
R., University of Texas, Austin, TX, brcox@utexas.edu; LARMAT, C. S., Los
departments of Clark County and the City of Henderson contracted with the
Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, carene@lanl.gov; STOKOE, K.
Nevada System of Higher Ed. and Optim to make over 10,000 standardized
H., University of Texas, Austin, TX, k.stokoe@mail.utexas.edu; LEE, R. C., Los
Vs30 measurements using the SeisOpt ReMi method across 1500 km2 of urban
Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, rclee@lanl.gov
area within 3 years. The municipalities funded the Parcel Map for less than
As part of the ongoing geophysical characterization activities at Los Alamos $20 per household. They accept Parcel Map Vs30 values, openly available from
National Laboratory, a network of ten Trillium Compact broadband seismometers clarkcountynv.gov, in granting building permits. Property owners can challenge
owned by the University of Texas were deployed on and near the site of a mesa to map classifications with their own measurements. The Parcel Map shows the
collect both passive seismic signals and body and surface waves generated as part of boundaries between the NEHRP soil classes to be complex and impossible
a refraction-type experiment using a large, truck-mounted vibrator. The Trillium to predict without the dense measurements. Urban planners, developers, and
instruments have a bandwidth of 120 seconds to 100-Hz and once deployed, landowners use the Parcel Map to intelligently avoid over-strengthening buildings
continuously recorded data for over 24-hours, overlapping in time with the active on stiffer sites, and to properly assess the higher costs of developing softer sites. The
refraction experiment. Sensors were deployed in two, crossing, linear arrays that basin-wide Parcel Map shear-velocity profile measurements provide an accurate
spanned the top and three sides of the mesa. In addition, four instruments were geotechnical layer for 3D velocity models used to predict shaking for scenario
deployed on flat ground near the base of the feature. The mesa is elongated in earthquakes. Validated ground-motion predictions show strong effects of the
the east-west direction and approximately 25-m in height and 180-m in width fractal geotechnical heterogeneity in sensitivity tests on Vs30, with factors of two
at the base and has slopes ranging from 50-125% on three sides. The area is PGV amplifications at 0.5-1.0 Hz. Including the 3D effects of the Parcel Map along
also characterized by a complex subsurface geology consisting of successive basalt, with the basins in HAZUS predictions raises the economic impact of a key scenario
volcanic ash and sedimentary deposits. The vibroseis sweeps generated P- and SH- from $4.8 to $8.6 billion, and from dozens to hundreds of casualties.
motions in a bandwidth of ˜2-20 Hz and at distances of 100m to 2km from the
mesa. The active data analysis for the topographic amplification is still in progress. Mapping of Site Characteristics Using HVSR on Cal Poly Pomona Campus
Spectral ratio analysis of the passive ambient noise data showed amplifications of HO, K. Y. K., California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, Pomona, CA,
5 or greater on both horizontal and vertical components at periods ˜0.7 seconds. kingho@cpp.edu; POLET, J., California State Polytechnic University, Pomona,
Both structural features and topography will be tested to explain the response of the CA, jpolet@cpp.edu
mesa to both ambient seismic noise and active seismic experiments using simplified
analytical modeling and spectral element modeling, which is a direct numerical Site characteristics have a significant impact on earthquake hazard assessment. To
method solving the wave equation in complex 3D models. better understand site response differences on a small scale, as well as the seismic
hazard of the area, we have developed site response parameter maps of Cal Poly
Site Effects in Alpine Regions through Systematic Site Characterization of Pomona campus. Cal Poly Pomona is located in southern California about 30
Seismic Stations and Empirical Spectral Amplification km east of Pasadena, California and within 50 km of the San Andreas Fault. The
MICHEL, C., Swiss Seismological Service, Zurich, Switzerland, campus is situated on top of the San Jose Fault. With about 22,000 students on
clotaire@sed.ethz.ch; EDWARDS, B., Swiss Seismological Service, Zurich, campus and continuing development, it is important to better understand the site

on 09 October 2018
response in this area. To this end, we apply the Horizontal-to-Vertical spectral ratio velocity profiles, and all relevant information that can help to quantify the site
(HVSR) technique, which is an empirical method that can be used in an urban effect associated to stations. In France, the permanent accelerometric network
environment with no environmental impact. This well-established method is based consists in around 150 stations. A recent effort led to the characterization of
on the computation of the ratio of horizontal ambient noise ground motion over around 30 stations, especially in South East of France. This characterization was
vertical ambient noise ground motion as a function of frequency. By applying the performed using surface-wave based methods that allow deriving velocity profiles
spectral ratio method and the criteria from Site Effects Assessment Using Ambient from dispersion curves of Rayleigh and Love waves. We implemented both active
Excitations (SESAME) guidelines, we can determine the fundamental frequency acquisitions (Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves) along lines from 50 to 100
and a minimum site amplification factor. We installed broadband seismometers m length and passive acquisitions (Ambient Vibration Array) using multiple circle
throughout the Cal Poly Pomona campus, with a total number of 35 sites. The arrays (aperture from 10 to 1000 m). The computation of dispersion curves, then
sites are approximately 50 to 150 meters apart and about two hours of waveform their inversion in terms of shear wave velocity profiles (taking into account the
data was recorded at each site. We used the Geopsy software to make measurements non-uniqueness issue of such inversion) allowed also defining Vs30 values and soil
of fundamental frequency and minimum site amplification factor and will present class with corresponding uncertainties. From a methodological point of view, this
maps of these results. Our measurements show significant variation in site response survey leads to the following recommendations. 1) Perform both active and passive
parameters within distances of only 40 meters. Based on a comparison with the measurements in order to derive dispersion curves on a wide frequency range. 2)
geological map from the California Geological Survey, our results show some Perform active acquisitions for both vertical (Rayleigh wave) and horizontal (Love
correlation with surface geological units. Amplification factors are generally higher wave) polarities. This helps to better determine dispersion curve modes and thus
(measure up to 5) on the alluvial deposits with a fundamental frequency of about 1 decreases the risk of errors in velocity profile derivation. It is worth noting that even
Hz, while the Topanga Formation has a lower amplification factor of around 2. for so called "rock sites" (Vs30 > 800 m/s), we almost ever identified a very shallow
weathered zone that may be responsible for a high frequency site effect. This one
Evaluation of Site Effect Features of Miocene Paleo-canyons in South Eastern has to be taken into account for a better phenomenological understanding of "high
France Using Ambient Vibration Methods frequency content" of rock station accelerograms.
HOLLENDER, F., CEA Cadarache, St Paul lez Dce, France,
fabrice.hollender@cea.fr; CUSHING, E. M., IRSN, Fontenay-aux- Aftershocks Recordings Since 2010 to Highlight Site Effects in the Port-au-
Roses, France, edward.cushing@irsn.fr; DUSSOUILLEZ, P., CEREGE, Prince Basin (Haiti). Comparison Between Spectral Ratio and 1D-Numerical
Provence, France, dussouillez@cerege.fr; NECHTSCHEIN, S., IRSN, Simulations.
Fontenay-aux-Roses, France, stephane.nechtschein@irsn.fr; GUYONNET- ST FLEUR, S., University of Nice Sophia Antipolis, Valbonne, France,
BENAIZE, C., Geosciences Modelling Consultant, Marseille, France„ sadrac.stfleur@geoazur.unice.fr; COURBOULEX, F., University of
cedric.guyonnet-benaize@hotmail.fr; BAILLY, T., GEOTER, Le Bourget Nice Sophia Antipolis, Valbonne, France, courboulex@geoazur.unice.fr;
du Lac, France, t.bailly@fugro.com; DELAVAUD, E., IRSN, Fontenay-aux- BERTRAND, E., CEREMA DTer Méditerranée, Laboratoire de Nice, France,
Roses, France, elise.delavaud@irsn.fr; CORNOU, C., ISTerre, Grenoble, etienne.bertrand@cerema.fr; DESCHAMPS, A., University of Nice Sophia
France, cecile.cornou@ujf-grenoble.fr; BELLIER, O., CEREGE, Provence, Antipolis, Valbonne, France, deschamps@geoazur.unice.fr; MERCIER
France, bellier@cerege.fr; GELIS, C., IRSN, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France, DE LEPINAY, B., University of Nice Sophia Antipolis, Valbonne, France,
celine.gelis@irsn.fr; PERRON, V., CEA Cadarache, St Paul lez Dce, France, bmercier@geoazur.unice.fr; BOISSON, D., Université d’Etat d’Haïti, Port au
vincent.perron2@cea.fr Prince, Haïti, dmboisson@yahoo.com; HOUGH, E. S., U.S. Geological Survey,
Pasadena, CA, hough@usgs.gov
The watershed area of the Mediterranean Sea was affected by erosive incisions
during the Miocene epoch. The most dramatic one is linked to the Messinian On January 12th 2010, the region of Port au Prince in Haiti was struck by a large
Salinity Crisis (around 5.5 Ma) that induced a drastic lowering of the destructive earthquake (Mw=7). Unfortunately, the few seismological stations that
Mediterranean Sea level and induced the development of deep canyons on were installed during the mainshock are all saturated; thus, there were no direct
continents. After the re-flooding, these canyons were then progressively filled by measurements of the ground motion produced by this large event. Quickly after the
sandy and clayey sediments during the Pliocene epoch. Although seismic hazard event, however, accelerometers and broad-band stations were installed by USGS,
remains very low in this low seismicity region, these structures are prone to ground Canadian Geological Survey and Bureau des Mines et de l’Energie d’Haïti. About
motion amplification (site effects induced by lithology and geometry). Moreover, 90 post seismic events were recorded on these local networks. We located 43 of
low probability seismic hazard may be controlled by slow slipping fault. Some them and the other ones were located by Douilly et al. 2013 using also temporary
potentially active faults are cut by this canyon. This gives a chance to evaluate marine seismometers. The ground motion recordings at these stations were then
the long-term slipping by measuring the fossilized ˜5 Ma canyon rim shifted analyzed in order to study the topographic and lithologic amplification effects
by these faults. To study these structures we applied ambient vibration technics observed on these sites. To quantify site effects under each station, we have used
on sites located along the Rhône river and its tributaries. We used the H/V classical spectral ratio methods. In a first step, the HVSR earthquake method
ambient vibration method to evaluate the fundamental frequency of the site- (Horizontal over Vertical ratio) was used to choose a reference station in Port au
effect, but also as a tool for imaging the canyon geometry. This led to various Prince that should be ideally a station without any site effects. We selected HCEA
results, from clear peaks, to less interpretable curves. We emphasize the possibility station as reference station. In a second step, we estimated the transfer function
of over-interpretation of H/V f0 obtained where steep slopes are identified. We at each station by the SSR (Standard Spectral Ratio). The azimuthal dependency
also applied ambient vibration array technics in order to get shear wave velocity of site effect is also studied on the stations where it was possible. Finally, specific
profiles within canyon filling. The issue of possible contrast within the filling is soil columns were determined in the vicinity of each station in order to carry out
addressed: is the velocity profile characterized by a gentle gradient from surface to 1D simulations of soil response at these sites. The transfer functions estimated
bedrock or does a major contrast exist at a known lithological change within the by the spectral ratios technique were compared to 1D simulations. We evidenced
sand content of the Pliocene marls? This work next step is the comparison with the existence of a possible surface wave effects in the plain of Port-au- Prince and
standard spectral ratio obtained from earthquake recordings and ground motion topographical effects in the hills of Canape-vert.
numerical simulations. The goal is to define a robust methodology to assess site
effect potentiality of such geological object. Improved Estimation of Site Response Using Random Vibration Theory
SEIFRIED, A. E., Lettis Consultants International, Inc., Boulder, CO,
Velocity Profile Characterization of French Accelerometric Permanent seifried@lettisci.com; TORO, G. R., Lettis Consultants International,
Network Stations: Results, Methodological Feedback and Implications Inc., Acton, MA, toro@lettisci.com
HOLLENDER, F., CEA Cadarache, St Paul lez Dce, France, fabrice.
hollender@cea.fr; CORNOU, C., ISTerre, Grenoble, France, cecile. Site-specific seismic hazard analysis accounts for the effect of local geologic
cornou@ujf-grenoble.fr; DECHAMP, A., CEA DAM DIF, Arpajon, conditions on the expected frequency content of ground motions at a site.
France, aline.dechamp@cea.fr; RENALIER, F., SOLDATA Geophysic, This analysis typically involves the propagation of ground motions defined for
Vermelle, France, florence.renalier@soldata-geophysic.com; THOMASSIN, underlying rock conditions through a soil column to the surface. This is efficiently
S., Résonance Ingénieurs-Conseils SA, Carouge, Switzerland, sylvette. accomplished using a random vibration theory (RVT)-based equivalent-linear
thomassin@resonance.ch approach, which is common in engineering practice. Recent research demonstrates
that site-specific response spectrum amplification factors (SAF) obtained using
Data provided by accelerometric network are important for seismic hazard RVT methods can be conservative by as much as 50% relative to those obtained
assessment. They are used to derive Ground Motion Prediction Equations using time history methods for some frequencies. An alternative RVT-based
(GMPEs). The correct use of accelerometric signal is also linked to the station approach to calculating SAF is used here to reduce unnecessary conservatism
site metadata that should provide reliable information about site class, Vs30 value, while maintaining computational efficiency. Current RVT approaches use input

on 09 October 2018
ground motion duration to compute the root-mean-square (rms) response Geophysical Characterization of Seismographic Station Sites in the Central
amplitude, which is a key factor in determining spectral acceleration with RVT. and Eastern United States
Duration based on input motion does not account for the increase in duration MARTIN, A. J., GEOVision, Inc., Corona, CA, amartin@geovision.com;
observed as real time histories propagate through the soil column, which leads to STOKOE, K. H., University of Texas, Austin, TX, k.stokoe@mail.utexas.edu;
overestimation of surface response, particularly at the modal frequencies of the SALOMONE, L., Pinnacle Specialty Group, Inc., Aiken, SC, ceus_
column. The approach used here focuses instead on the response bandwidth of the scc@yahoo.com; DIEHL, J. G., GEOVision, Inc., Corona, CA, jdiehl@
combined soil- and single-degree-of-freedom system. A measure of bandwidth is geovision.com
used to modify the peak factor, the other key parameter in determining spectral
acceleration through RVT, to account for the correlation of peak responses. A In 2012, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) funded geophysical
nonstationarity factor is then applied to the rms response to account for the characterization of 33 seismographic station sites in the central and eastern United
difference between the input motion duration and the time required to excite States (CEUS) to determine the shear-wave velocity (VS ) profile to a depth of 30
the combined system. These modifications result in estimates of SAF that are meters, or more, and the average shear-wave velocity of the upper 30 meters (VS30 ).
in better agreement with time history methods. The impact of this approach is The geologic conditions at the sites generally consisted of a Quaternary sediment
demonstrated on the calculation of deterministic and probabilistic SAF that may layer overlying Paleozoic sedimentary or crystalline rock. Twenty-four sites were
be used in a typical seismic hazard analysis. characterized by GEOVision using the multi-channel analysis of surface wave
technique measuring both Rayleigh waves (MASR W) and Love waves (MASL W)
The Valley of Mexico Ground Motion: Regional, Local and Soil-Infrastructure and the compressional (P) and shear (S) wave seismic refraction techniques. Eleven
Interaction. sites, two of which overlapped with the GEOVision sites, were characterized by
RAMIREZ-GUZMAN, L., Institute of Engineering, Mexico City, Mexico, the University of Texas at Austin (UTA) using the spectral analysis of surface
lramirezg@iingen.unam.mx waves (SASW) technique and a vertical (Rayleigh wave) vibratory energy source.
The presence of shallow rock at many of the sites often complicated Rayleigh
This study presents an analysis of the ground motion in Central Mexico, with wave propagation to a greater degree than Love wave propagation. Of the 24
emphasis on the Valley of Mexico (VM), originating from earthquakes located sites characterized by GEOVision, 16 were characterized using MASL W data,
along the Pacific coast and intra-slab deep events via numerical simulations 4 using both MASL W and MASR W data and 4 using MASR W data. The
and records. We explore the influence of : 1) the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt Rayleigh wave SASW data acquired by UTA were modeled using an effective mode
(TMVB), 2) the low velocity deposits, and 3) the city and subway interaction on routine capable of accounting for the dominant higher mode Rayleigh wave energy
the amplitude and the elongation of the duration observed. I used a 3D crustal recorded at many of the sites. Several case histories are presented demonstrating the
model, which includes a geotechnical structure of the VM, a subduction zone variety of site and geologic conditions encountered during the investigation. Depth
geometry and velocity distributions consistent with the observed seismicity and to sedimentary/crystalline rock, which cannot be accurately estimated without
recent tomographic studies. The ˜1.5 million buildings used in our computations geophysical or geotechnical investigation, had the most significant influence on
to study the city-soil interaction are derived from the available inventories of the NEHRP Site Class at the sites characterized. Calculated VS30 for the 33 sites
Mexican Federal District’s counties, LIDAR data, and empirical rules to determine resulted in a NEHRP Site Class ranging from D (stiff soil) to A (hard rock).
their elastic properties. A simplified model of the extensive subway network is
included. Our 3D finite element wave propagation computations, valid up to 1 Hz, Site Amplification from Ambient Noise Wavefronts
reveal that including a basin with a structure as complex as the Valley of Mexico, BOWDEN, D. C., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
dramatically enhances the regional effects induced by the TMVB. Moreover, the dbowden@caltech.edu; TSAI, V. C., California Institute of Technology,
basin not only produces increments on the ground motion amplitude and duration, Pasadena, CA, tsai@caltech.edu; LIN, F. C., University of Utah, Salt Lake City,
it also favours the energy focusing into zones of the city where buildings typically UT, FanChi.Lin@utah.edu
undergo high levels of damage. We also conclude in this study that the city-soil
interaction is restricted to some regions located in the former lake, and the subway We demonstrate that it is possible to observe the spatial variability of site
tunnels produce small modifications to the wave-field, in the frequency range amplifications, attenuation, and scattering of surface waves from ambient noise
evaluated. cross correlations in a spatially dense array. Use of the ambient noise field and a
dense array allow for observations of signal amplitudes at higher frequencies than
Effects of Site Geometry on Short-distance Spatial Coherency in Argostoli, traditional, passive, teleseismic observations, opening a new range of opportunity
Greece for studies of seismic hazard. We examine the method’s effectiveness on two vastly
IMTIAZ, A., Institut des Sciences de la Terre , Grenoble, France, afifa.imtiaz@ujf- different scales: the Long Beach Array with more than 5000 single component
grenoble.fr; CORNOU, C., Institut des Sciences de la Terre , Grenoble, geophones in an area of only about 100 square kilometers and measurements
France, cecile.cornou@ujf-grenoble.fr; BARD, P. Y., Institut des Sciences de la up to 2Hz, and the UsArray with measurements on a continental scale. The
Terre, Grenoble, France, pierre-yves.bard@ujf-grenoble.fr; ZERVA, A., Drexel method preserves relative amplitudes of the cross correlated pairs and allows for
University, Philadelphia, PA, aspasia.zerva@drexel.edu the observation of wavefronts of the ambient noise field. Application of Helmholtz
tomography considers a wavefront’s amplitude and travel times, and explicitly
Spatial variation of earthquake ground motion can significantly affect the dynamic corrects for geometric spreading and wavefront focusing/defocusing; any further
response of large-size engineering structures, especially on sites with lateral deviations are attributed to the crustal properties of interest. In this way, we can
inhomogeneity. A better physical understanding of this variation would greatly provide observations of relative site amplification terms independent of the noise
help to improve the efforts to include such variability in present engineering source or strength. Use of the ambient noise field also offers the advantage that we
practices. A two-dimensional dense seismic array, deployed in a small-size, shallow can observe both incoming and outgoing wavefronts, and this allows for further
alluvial valley (Koutavos-Argostoli, Cephalonia Island, Greece), provided rich data distinguishing between attenuation and the effects of scatterers or sources within
to study the stochastic characteristics of seismic ground motions, in terms of loss the array. These observations are independent of any assumed velocity model or
of coherency, over very short distances (5 to 160 m). The deployed array, located depth dependence and so provide an opportunity to advance our understanding
in the inner-western part of the valley, consisted of 21 velocimeters in concentric of the various 3D effects on signal amplitudes. We outline both the successes and
circles with radii of 5 m, 15 m, 40 m and 80 m around the reference station. A shortcomings of the methodology, and show it can be extended for use on future
set of 46 earthquakes, characterized by a homogeneous back-azimuth distribution, arrays.
with magnitude 2 to 5 and epicentral distance up to 200 km, was used for the
analysis. The "lagged coherency" of the most energetic part of the ground motion,
beginning from the onset of S-wave, was computed for each station-pair within Determination of Vs30 at CGS Geotechnical Arrays Using Strong-Motion Data
the array and averaged within various distance intervals for the whole data set. The HADDADI, H., California Geological Survey, Sacramento, CA, hhaddadi@
resulting average coherency curves do not show any consistent dependence on the conservation.ca.gov; SHAKAL, A., California Geological Survey, Sacramento,
magnitude, back-azimuth or site-to-source distance of the event, and are primarily CA, ashakal@conservation.ca.gov; HUANG, M., California Geological Survey,
controlled by the site geometry. Station pairs oriented parallel to the valley axis Sacramento, CA, mhuang@conservation.ca.gov
sytematically exhibit a larger coherency than pairs in the perpendicular direction.
This is consistent with the observed predominance of scattered surface waves Shear wave velocity of upper 30 meters, Vs30, at the California Geological Survey’s
propagating across the valley in the valley-perpendicular direction, implying larger instrumented geotechnical arrays are determined by analyzing the strong ground-
phase shifts along this direction. The compariosn of the median estimates from motion records of the earthquakes. The Normalized Input-Output Minimization
both pair-orientations with empirical and semi-empirical parametric coherency Method (NIOM) has been employed to correlate the ground motion waveforms
models exhibits a rather poor fit, probably indicative of the strong site dependent recorded at various depths of the geotechnical arrays, and to calculate the S-
nature of the coherency. wave travel times and velocities between the depths at which the seismic sensors

on 09 October 2018
have been installed. In some of the geotechnical arrays shear wave velocity different parts of the region. In addition, various mappers, over the span of decades
measurements by the geophysical methods in boreholes were incomplete due to and mapping at a range of scales, classified units differently. While a concerted
technical difficulties such as borehole collapse. Such difficulties usually occur at effort was made to seamlessly unify the geologic units, field verification was outside
the uppermost part of boreholes, where soil layers are looser. In this study, shear the scope of this project, and some differences in nomenclature remain along map
wave velocities at the shallow depths of such geotechnical arrays are calculated boundaries. Such issues hinder the ability to address the regional seismic hazard
by the NIOM method and the results are complemented to the measurements at potential; however, the map, associated database, and identified disparities will
the lower depths to determine Vs30. The velocities obtained in this study for the provide an essential foundation for future research.
cases of weak and strong shaking are compared with the measured velocities at the
geotechnical array sites obtained using P-S suspension logging. Application of wave Geophysical Characterization of the Offshore Los Osos Fault Zone: Insights
propagation analysis is especially important in studying the dynamic characteristics into Block Boundary Deformation
of ground layers during strong ground shaking and yields average values for a larger WATT, J. T., U.S. Geological Survey, Santa Cruz, CA, jwatt@usgs.gov;
area under a site as opposed to the area in the very close vicinity of the geotechnical HARDEBECK, J. L., U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, jhardebeck@
array. usgs.gov; JOHNSON, S. Y., U.S. Geological Survey, Santa Cruz, CA,
sjohnson@usgs.gov
Updated Geospatial Liquefaction Model for Global Use
We combine high-resolution seismic-reflection, potential-field, multibeam
ZHU, J., Tufts University, Medford, MA, jing.zhu@tufts.edu; BAISE, L. G.,
bathymetry, and seismicity data to characterize the offshore Los Osos fault
Tufts University, Medford, MA, laurie.baise@tufts.edu; THOMPSON, E. M., zone and related structures within Estero Bay to evaluate fault interactions and
San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, ethompson@mail.sdsu.edu constrain the earthquake hazard. The geometry of the offshore Los Osos fault as it
This paper presents the latest update of the global geospatial liquefaction model, converges with the Hosgri fault is complex, likely reflecting the inherent instability
which predicts the likelihood of liquefaction from globally available geospatial and dynamic nature of fault intersections. On land, the Los Osos fault zone forms
parameters for use in loss estimation and rapid response. Zhu et al (2014; the northern boundary of the San Luis Range, an uplifted rigid structural block
GLM-Zea14g) developed a four-parameter model using liquefaction occurrence within the Los Osos domain. This fault zone extends offshore into Estero Bay,
and nonoccurrence data from four earthquakes in Christchurch and Japan. The where it converges with the Hosgri fault. The offshore extension of the Los Osos
fault, as imaged with multibeam and high-resolution seismic-reflection data, is
objective of this update is to improve the performance and the generalization of
the model by expanding the previous liquefaction database. We add 18 earthquakes characterized by a W-NW trending zone of near vertical active faulting. Fault
including eight earthquakes from the U.S., one earthquake from Taiwan, and nine strands become progressively more northwest-trending as they converge with
additional earthquakes from Japan. We strategically add data where the parameter the Hosgri fault. A northern strand runs subparallel to the Hosgri fault along
the edge of a steeply northeast-dipping magnetic block. Inversion of earthquake
space was sparsely sampled. Unlike the Christchurch and Kobe data used in
GLM-Zea14g, for which both liquefaction occurrences and nonoccurrences are focal mechanisms within Estero Bay yields maximum compressive stress axes
continuously mapped, the newly added data only include liquefaction occurrences. that are near-horizontal and trend approximately N15E. This trend is consistent
with dextral strike-slip faulting along NW-SE trending structures such as the
This characteristic limits our ability to preserve the actual class imbalance and
requires us to make assumptions to include nonoccurrence data. We adopt a Hosgri and northern Los Osos faults, but inconsistent with dextral strike-slip
sampling scheme that has been successfully applied in the landslide hazard mapping motion along the more E-W trending sections of the offshore Los Osos fault zone.
which randomly samples non-occurrence data from background pixels based on Structures illuminated by seismicity in Estero Bay coincide with, but also appear to
cross-cut, Los Osos fault structures imaged in the near-surface by seismic-reflection
the relative locations to the occurrence data. With the expanded database, we test
geospatial parameters as proxies for earthquake loading (peak ground velocity; peak and multibeam bathymetry. We suggest this apparent disconnect reflects fault
ground acceleration; magnitude; magnitude scaling factor), soil density (VS30 ; reorganization at the intersection of structural blocks, where the seismicity reflects
elevation; distance to coast), and soil saturation (distance to the closest river; active deformation that is not clearly expressed in the near-surface geology.
distance to coast; simulated water table depth; compound topographic index;
annual precipitation) and present an updated geospatial liquefaction model. Given Strike-slip Fault Structures Inferred from Seismicity in Estero Bay, Central
the broader database used in the development of this model and the cross- Coastal California
validation testing we have performed, we are confident that this model can be HARDEBECK, J. L., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, jhardebeck@
applied accurately at the global scale. usgs.gov; WATT, J. T., US Geological Survey, Santa Cruz, CA, jwatt@usgs.gov
Seismicity in Estero Bay illuminates faults at seismogenic depths that in most

cases can be associated with faults imaged seismically, in bathymetry, and/or with
potential field data. Fault planes are objectively fit to double-difference-relocated
Central Coastal California Tectonics seismicity using the OADC method (Ouillon et al., JGR, 2008), expanded to
Poster Session · Thursday · 23 April · Exhibit Hall A require that first-motion observations be consistent with slip on the identified
plane (OADC-FM). The Hosgri and Shoreline Faults are both imaged as near-
vertical strike-slip OADC-FM structures that intersect at seismogenic depths (2-
A Geologic Compilation Map of the Central California Coast Ranges West 12 km). The northern Shoreline Fault seismicity coincides in map view, within
of the San Andreas Fault; Results, Challenges, and Potential Use in Seismic location uncertainty, with the western strand of the Point Buchon Fault, implying
Hazard Analysis that these are the same fault. In central Estero Bay, a vertical strike-slip OADC-
ROBERTS, M. A., U.S.Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, roberts@usgs.gov; FM fault branches southeastward from the Hosgri Fault. The intersection zone
GRAYMER, R. W., U.S.Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, rgraymer@usgs.gov appears geometrically complex at seismogenic depth, likely due to its unstable
configuration. The northwestern part of the seismicity structure projects up to
We present a newly compiled geologic map for the central California Coast Ranges.
a fault imaged by seismic and potential field data, which is thought to be an
The map, shown at 1:316,800, was digitally compiled from over 140 published
offshore strand of the Los Osos Fault zone. Further south the Los Osos fault
and unpublished sources (provided mostly by Lew Rosenberg), and comprises a
zone imaged by the seismic data bends sharply eastward, coming onshore near
region bounded on the east by the San Andreas Fault, on the south by the Santa
Morro Bay, while the seismicity feature and coincident magnetic anomaly continue
Ynez Fault, and on the north by the Pajaro River. Spurred by the 2003 M6.6 San
straight to the southeast toward Point Buchon. Another strike-slip OADC-FM
Simeon earthquake, PG&E and the USGS entered into a cooperative agreement
plane is observed in eastern Estero Bay, and coincides with a series of northwest-
to fund a regional geologic map that would provide a unified depiction of the
trending magnetic anomalies. The seismicity indicates that the style of faulting in
geologic units and structures as a basis for seismic hazard analysis. Geologic units
Estero Bay is predominately strike-slip, in contrast with the history of uplift and
in the map area were sorted into 22 structural blocks, bounded mostly by major
subsidence, respectively, of the adjacent onshore Irish Hills and Los Osos Valley.
Quaternary fault systems, with some of the boundaries inferred from older faults or
We interpret the fault features in Estero Bay as a complex set of vertical strike-slip
structural discontinuities observed in geophysical data. Juxtaposition of different
faults transferring right-lateral motion from the Hosgri Fault to inland faults of the
stratigraphic packages in adjacent blocks reflects differential uplift/subsidence
San Andreas system.
and/or strike-slip transport of separate depositional basins. We also grouped the
older units into tectonostratigraphic terrane complexes (Franciscan, Great Valley,
and Salinian). The basement rocks were brought together by subduction/accretion A Propagating Half Graben Separates the Hosgri and San Simeon Fault Zones
and subsequent plate-margin tectonics, and eventually overlain by Tertiary and Offshore Cambria, California
Quaternary units. Stratigraphic correlation across such a widespread, complex area RIETMAN, J. D., Consulting Geophysicist, Walnut Creek, CA,
proved problematic. Units such as the Monterey Formation have different ages in jrietman@att.net; GREENE, H. G., Moss Landing Marine Labs, Moss Landing,

on 09 October 2018
CA, greene@mlml.calstate.edu; NISHENKO, S. P., Pacific Gas and Electric ocean noise. Spectrograms of short period noise on vertical components, showed
Company, San Francisco, CA, spn3@pge.com a 82.7 Hz hum that dissipated after 1.5 hours and noise bands oscillating between
10 and 30 Hz; 30Hz is likely from turbine vibration at DCPP. Long period (LP)
The integrated interpretation of seismic-reflection and MBES data of the offshore noise on horizontal components showed energy from 2.5 to 2s, with a dominant
area between Point Buchon and San Simeon Point is part of Pacific Gas and band below 10s. A differential pressure gauge showed similar LP, 2s noise from
Electric Company’s low-energy seismic-reflection survey investigations of the waves driven by local winds and 14s noise due to ocean swell from distant storms.
relationships between the Hosgri fault zone (HFZ) and other fault zones in the Two earthquakes were well-recorded on all four OBS units; a M2.35 event on
vicinity of Diablo Canyon Power Plant. This study was undertaken to better 28Nov2013, depth 3km, near the Hosgri fault about 4km S of the OBS array;
understand the pattern of faulting along the continental shelf between San Simeon and a M1.24 event on 11Feb2014, depth 7.9km, in the Irish Hills surrounded
Point and southern Estero Bay. Based on the seafloor expression and offset surficial by onshore stations about 8km N of DCPP. Tests using USGS and PG&E 1D
sediment by the various HFZ strands, we conclude that the active strands of the velocity models and with or without the OBS recordings showed that the largest
HFZ trend more westerly than the general north-south orientation of the San difference in locations (<1km) was due to the velocity model. Removing the OBS
Simeon fault zone, and control the shelf break in the region. Here the HFZ bounds readings resulted in a smaller change in location (<0.5km), with the change relative
the inshore (eastern) margin of the offshore Santa Maria Basin near a releasing bend to the velocity model used. Focal mechanisms (FMs) from the onshore event show
that we map as the newly named Half Graben fault zone, a series of faults along consistent reverse FMs for all tests, while the offshore event showed a variety of
which the half graben is down-dropped on the east and tilted to the west. This half oblique and reverse slip motions. Although much was learned about the ambient
graben is filled with Quaternary sediment above an erosional bedrock surface. The noise, OBS recordings of the events were not degraded by the noise. Event locations
half graben is narrow in the north, where it pinches out between bedrock exposed should be improved using a 3D velocity model; results will be presented. Based
on the inner shelf and bedrock high exposed along the western side of the graben- on the onshore event results, future offshore events within the OBS array and the
bounding fault. To the south, the half graben widens considerably and appears onshore stations should have improved FMs.
to end near where it merges with the Los Osos fault zone. We conclude that the
graben originally opened in the south and is presently propagating to the north.
The Potential of a Seafloor Geodesy Network Off Central California to
The possibility exists that some Quaternary slip along the HFZ south and west
Constrain Present Day Hosgri Fault Slip Rate
of Cambria has been transferred onto transitional faults and over to the Piedras
ERICKSEN, T., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, ericksen@hawaii.edu;
Blancas fold and fault belt to the northwest. This slip is therefore absorbed within
CHADWELL, C. D., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA,
the Piedras Blancas fault and fold belt. With the exception of faults along the
cchadwell@ucsd.edu; BROOKS, B., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA,
south end of the San Simeon fault zone, no compelling evidence of recent fault
bbrooks@usgs.gov; MURRAY, J., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA,
displacement
jrmurray@usgs.gov; THATCHER, W., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA,
thatcher@usgs.gov
Fluid and Strong Ground-Motion Induced Slope Failures Along the Western
Hosgri Fault Zone in Northern Estero Bay Region, California The greatest seismic hazard to the central California coast is earthquake slip on the
GREENE, H. G., Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, Moss Landing, CA, nearby Hosgri Fault (HF). Existing geologic, seismologic and geodetic estimates
greene@mlml.calstate.edu; RIETMAN, J., Consutling Geophysist, Walnut are permissive of 1-6 mm/yr rates. Establishing a seafloor geodetic network in the
Creek, CA, jrietman@att.net; JOHNSON, S. Y., U.S. Geological Survey, Santa ˜100 km west of the HF with annual reoccupations for 10 years would permit us
Cruz, CA, sjohnson@usgs.gov; NISHENKO, S., Pacific Gas and Electric to constrain the slip rate to ±1 mm/yr. While the GPS-Acoustic technique has
Company, San Francisco, CA, SPN3@pge.com been viable for over a decade, two recent advances lower the cost and increase
the longevity of seafloor position time series. First, the GPS-Acoustic approach
Recently collected USGS multibeam echosounder and high-resolution seismic- has been adapted to a Wave Glider remotely operated sea surface platform which
reflection data interpreted as part of PG&E’s seismic hazards evaluation of the can be launched near shore and navigated remotely to the seafloor transponder
Diablo Canyon Power Plant show unique seafloor morphology along the distal sites to collect the GPS-A data. Second, a new permanent seafloor benchmark
edge of the continental shelf of the northern Estero Bay region, offshore of allows transponders to be recovered and replaced as necessary while maintaining
Cambria, California. Unlike much of the shelf that exhibits a smooth seafloor, the a coherent position time series. For a hypothetical deployment of 5 seafloor sites,
area near the shelf break is hummocky, with long linear ridges and depressions simple 2D and 3D elastic dislocation model calculations demonstrate that with
oriented parallel to the shelf break. The shelf break here has sharp relief and 2 mm/yr 1-sigma uncertainties on GPS velocities we can expect to resolve HF
a linear trend that appears to be controlled by faulting associated with western slip within ±1 mm/yr. A subset of the onshore GPS network provides velocities
strands of the Hosgri Fault Zone (HFZ). The shelf break is broken in several corrected for coseismic and postseismic effects of the 2003 San Simeon and 2004
places by prominent mounds and depressions shoreward on the shelf, and low-relief Parkfield earthquakes, many of which have individual uncertainties less than 1
sediment gravity-flow deposits seaward on the upper slope. Strands of the HFZ are mm/yr. Augmenting this velocity field with 5 new seafloor sites, we use 2D elastic
discontinuous through the area but appear as deep strands beneath some of the dislocation models and 3D block models to demonstrate the additional constraints
depressions. The acoustic signature of the shallow subsurface in the vicinity of these on HF slip rates expected from the augmented network. While the immediate goal
depressions exhibits some chaotic reflections indicative of slumping and downslope of the proposed network is to provide better constraints on the Hosgri fault slip
movement. Along the shelf break margin the faults exhibit lenses of high-amplitude rate, lack of offshore geodetic data limits the ability to constrain slip rates along the
reflections (“bright spots”) that most likely represent gas trapped along, or between, length of the San Andreas system. Establishing a seafloor geodetic measurement
faults. These morphologic features appear similar to authigenic carbonate mounds, program off the central California coast would lead to better-constrained models
ridges, and slabs that exist elsewhere along the California coast and are typically of present day deformation and improved assessment of seismic hazards.
associated with hydrocarbon basins. Therefore, it appears that the HFZ within our
study area has acted as a conduit for fluid flow from deep in the offshore Santa Revised Offshore Mapping of Fault and Fold Deformation Associated with the
Maria Basin to the seafloor. The depressions and troughs associated with the gas- Hosgri Fault Zone, the Point Buchon Fault and the Shoreline Fault, Central
charged faults appear to represent mass failures at the top of the continental slope Coastal California
where earthquake ground motions and subsurface fluid flow mobilized sediment, ANGELL, M., Fugro Consultants, Walnut Creek, CA, m.angell@fugro.com;
resulting in excavation beneath the shelf edge to form the low-relief lobes from BUGA, M., Fugro Consultants, Walnut Creek, CA, m.buga@fugro.com;
sediment-gravity flows downslope. TURNER, J., Fugro Consultants, Lakewood, CO; SOWERS, J., Fugro
Consultants, Walnut Creek, CA, j.sowers@fugro.com; NISHENKO, S.,
PG&E Ocean Bottom Seismometer (OBS) Project: Initial Results from a Pacific Gas and Electric, San Francisco, CA, SPN3@pge.com
Shallow Water Deployment, offshore Central California, 27 July 2013 to 1 April
2014 We present updated structural geologic mapping of fault-related deformation
MCLAREN, M. K., Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Francisco, CA, offshore San Luis Obispo Co., California. This effort builds on previous mapping
mkm2@pge.com conducted in 2012 (PG&E, 2014) with focus on characterizing linkages among
the Hosgri Fault Zone (HFZ), Shoreline Fault (SLF), and the Point Buchon Fault
PG&E deployed four OBS units in 2013 (depths 55 to 120m) as a cabled system (PBF), and deformation between the HFZ and the SLF and PBF. The datasets
of broadband seismometer/accelerometers from Point Buchon to an onshore used for this revised map are two high energy exploration seismic surveys COMAP
recorder at the Diablo Canyon Power Plant (DCPP) intake bay. The goals are on- -1986; GSI-85), and three low energy, shallow (300 ms) high-res surveys (2010
scale recordings and improved locations of offshore earthquakes along the Hosgri USGS HR2D; 2011 PG&E HR2D; and 2011 PG&E HR3D). The previous
and Shoreline faults. Two autonomous broadband OBSs were also deployed for mapping used only the 2010-2011 data. The N25◦ W-trending HFZ and the
100 days from 25Jul2013 to 7Nov2013, at depths 70 and 106m, to study ambient N67◦ W-trending central segment of the SLF appear to be connected by the

on 09 October 2018
N46◦ W-trending PBF. The northern PBF converges with HFZ on successive distributed noise. In addition, dip-steered diffusion filtering was used to replace
seismic profiles and is confidently located <150 m from the HFZ, suggesting PBF- low quality traces by neighbouring traces of better quality, enhancing laterally
HFZ physical intersection. The central and southern PBF is identified on 3D continuous edges, such as faults. Following the pre-conditioning of the data, neural-
seismic time slice maps and HR2D lines to the south. The SE-most observation network based meta-attributes were calculated to target, detect, and visualize faults,
of the PBF is <1000 m along trend from the northwestern-most positive location gas-charged regions, and probable fluid-migration pathways above the Monterey
of the SLF. The proximity and low angle of the projected intersection between Formation. Results reveal a complex network of splayed and convergent fault
the faults strongly suggests the PBF and the SLF are connected, thus the PBF strands along the HFZ and numerous probable fluid pathways, primarily located
may form a continuous structural link between the HFZ and the SLF. The along fault traces and anticlinal folds. Multiple chimneys terminate under large
region between the HFZ and the SLF/PBF contains three distinct systems of shallow clusters of bright spots frequently located atop anticlinal structures, likely
contractional deformation: (1) Thrusts close to and parallel with the HFZ; (2) reflecting shallow regions of trapped gas/fluid. These results provide new 3D
deep “lower” thrusts that underlie large-scale anticlines oblique to the HFZ and insights into the relationship between faulting/deformation along an offshore
PBF; and (3) a shallow “upper” fold and thrust system rooted into bedding-parallel strike-slip fault system and fluid migration above the Monterey Formation. Such
detachments on the limbs and crests of the large anticlines. The contractional fluid flow and regions of concentration may locally weaken sediment and facilitate
structures are cut and offset by high-angle faults at several locations, one of which slope/ground failure, especially in areas adjacent to active faults where strong
has an apparent right-lateral offset of approximately 500 m to 1000 m. There is no ground motions are expected.
apparent deformation of the high angle faults by the contractional structures.
Restoring Fault Slip: Testing Alternative Correlations of Faulted Channels
Submarine Paleoseismic Slip Rate Constraints of Hosgri Fault Zone from Buried Beneath the Outer Continental Shelf in Estero Bay and the
High-Resolution 3D Seismic-Reflection Data, Offshore Point Sal, Central Implications for Slip Rate of the Hosgri Fault
Coastal California ABRAMSONWARD, H., Lettis Consultants International, Inc., Walnut
HOGAN, P. J., Fugro Consultants, Inc., Ventura, CA, phogan@fugro.com; Creek, CA, abramsonward@lettisci.com; LEWANDOWSKI, N., Lettis
Consultants International, Inc., Walnut Creek, CA, Lewandowski@lettisci.com;
GREENE, H. G., Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, Moss Landing, CA,
THOMPSON, S., Lettis Consultants International, Inc., Walnut Creek, CA,
greene@mlml.calstate.edu; NISHENKO, S., Pacific Gas and Electric Company,
thompson@lettisci.com; HANSON, K., Amec Foster Wheeler plc, Walnut
San Francisco, CA, SPN3@pge.com; BERGKAMP, B. J., Fugro GeoConsulting,
Creek, CA, kathryn.hanson@amecfw.com; NISHENKO, S., Pacific Gas &
Inc., Houston, TX, bbergkamp@fugro.com
Electric Company, Walnut Creek, CA, SPN3@pge.com
As part of the Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project, marine seismic-
In southern Estero Bay, the Hosgri fault zone (HFZ) consists of two dominant
reflection profile data were acquired across the Hosgri Fault Zone (HFZ) offshore
subparallel strands with minor secondary strands to the southwest and northeast.
Point Sal in 2011 and 2012 using a 12–14 streamer high-resolution 3D PCable
Here, the HFZ marks a boundary between active tectonic uplift to the east,
low-energy seismic survey system. Seismic-reflection profiles, 3D volumes and time
as indicated by a thin sedimentary cover and erosional surface of bedrock, and
slices were used to map detailed structural geometry within a 6-degree restraining
minor subsidence to the west, as indicated by the accumulation and preservation
bend in the fault zone. Geometric complexities of primary strike-slip faults, as well
of Quaternary sediments of the outer continental shelf. PG&E collected a high-
as numerous subsidiary faults provide insights into fault system evolution through
resolution 3D seismic-reflection volume along the eastern strand of the HFZ, as
time. High-resolution 3D seismic imaging of buried marine paleochannels allowed
well as a series of high-resolution 2D seismic-reflection profiles parallel to the
identification of piercing points for estimating Quaternary slip rates on the HFZ.
HFZ. These data supplement existing high-resolution profiles collected largely
Seven paleochannels (channels A-G) were identified in the 3D volume. Discrete
perpendicular to the HFZ by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2008 and 2009. Fault-
offsets of paleochannel thalweg piercing points across the two major strands of the
parallel seismic-reflection profiles reveal evidence for at least five channels west of
HFZ were measured. Channel complex F, which is well imaged, crosses both the
the HFZ buried beneath strata of the upper continental slope. These channels
east and west strands of the HFZ, providing the best piercing points for estimating
underlie strata interpreted to be at least 600 ka. The remnants of up to five
fault slip rates. Channel F is interpreted as an upper slope paleochannel incised
channels are eroded into the uplifting block east of the HFZ. Adjacent to the
during a low sea level stand in the Late Quaternary. Cumulative measured offset
western primary fault strand, the quality of seismic imaging is reduced, and the
of the Channel F thalweg across the HFZ is ˜600–650 m, within a range of
evidence for the presence and location of the channels is weak, raising questions
550–700 m. Ages used in estimating temporal aspects of piercing point offsets
about how much the channels are offset by the HFZ and whether they can be
are based on the evaluation of current global paleo–sea level curves, offshore well
correlated based on available data. We evaluate the origins of the channels and
data, and sequence stratigraphy. The preferred age for channel abandonment is
the likelihood that they may represent offset segments of continuous channels that
MIS 10 (˜340ka), but age control is poor and both younger and older ages were
once crossed the fault. We discuss alternative hypotheses for channel correlation.
considered. Based on the results of this study, the estimated slip rate for the
A preferred correlation aligns the three most continuous channels west of the
HFZ at Point Sal is approximately 1–2 mm/yr., within a range of 0.4–5 mm/yr.
HFZ with viable upstream equivalent channels by restoring approximately 1.1
Better geochronologic control through a targeted sediment age dating program
km of dextral fault slip and approximately 140 m of vertical fault slip. If this
would improve our understanding of Quaternary sequence stratigraphy and reduce
correlation is correct, the mean slip rate of the HFZ in southern Estero Bay
uncertainty in slip rate estimates offshore the Central California Coast.
is approximately 1.7 mm/yr, and within the range estimated elsewhere along
the HFZ.
Advanced 3D Seismic Detection and Visualization of Faults and Fluid
Pathways along the Hosgri Strike-Slip Fault Zone Offshore Point Sal, Shallow Subsurface 3D Structural Imaging Near Diablo Canyon Power Plant,
California California, Using Active Seismic, Gravity, and Magnetic Data
KLUESNER, J., University of California , Santa Cruz, CA, jwkluesn@ucsc.edu; TURNER, J., Fugro Consultants, Inc., Lakewood, CO, j.turner@fugro.com;
BROTHERS, D., Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA,
dbrothers@usgs.gov; HOGAN, P., Fugro Consultants, Inc, Ventura, CA, SOWERS, J., Fugro Consultants, Inc., Walnut Creek, CA, j.sowers@fugro.com;
PHogan@fugro.com; GREENE, G., Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, Moss GOODMAN, J., Fugro Consultants, Inc., Walnut Creek, CA,
Landing, CA, greene@mlml.calstate.edu; NISHENKO, S., Pacific Gas and j.goodman@fugro.com; LAJOIE, L., Fugro Consultants, Inc., Lakewood,
Electric Co., San Francisco, CA, SPN3@pge.com; WATT, J., Pacific Coastal and CO, lajoie.lia.j@gmail.com; O’CONNELL, D., Fugro Consultants, Inc.,
Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA, jwatt@usgs.gov; JOHNSON, S., Pacific Lakewood, CO, d.oconnell@fugro.com; NISHENKO, S., Pacific Gas and
Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA, sjohnson@usgs.gov Electric, San Francisco, CA, SPN3@pge.com
High-resolution 3D seismic-reflection data collected offshore Point Sal as part New very-high-resolution shallow active-source 3D seismic reflection and 3D
of PG&E’s seismic hazards evaluation of the Diablo Canyon Power Plant were acoustic velocity (Vp tomography) data were acquired in 2012 for two study areas
used to detect and visualize probable faults and fluid pathways along a portion (Phase 1 and Phase 2) in the vicinity of Diablo Canyon Power Plant (DCPP).
of the ˜400-km-long, strike-slip Hosgri Fault Zone (HFZ). Seismic acquisition In 2011, 2D/3D reflection was acquired in the Irish Hills to image large scale
utilized a P-Cable seismic streamer system, a low-energy boomer source with a structure. In 2012, very-hi-res data focused on imaging subsurface structure at and
high-frequency range, and a 0.25-ms sampling interval resulting in 8-fold data with near DCPP. The Phase 1 area was centered on DCPP and the ˜1-km site radius
3.125x3.125 m bins. Post-cruise, data were processed by Fugro Seismic Imaging to address NRC Reg. Guide 1.208 requirements. Reflection data were evaluated
Inc. (Ebuna et al., 2013). We use the OpendTect software package and plug-ins to for down-dip geometries of known and inferred geologic structures, or identify
employ post-processing dip-steering calculations and structural filters to improve previously unknown structures. Vp and S-wave 3D tomography volumes were used
the data quality by enhancing laterally continuous events while removing randomly for reflection processing inputs and DCPP foundation velocity analyses. Miocene

on 09 October 2018
volcaniclastic Obispo Formation exposed in the Phase 1 area is intruded by a developed that also consider displacement hazard due to movement on secondary
large volume of bedding-discordant diabase bodies with uniquely high Vp values structures. Similarly, for tsunami hazard analysis it is desirable to use a probabilistic
(=20,000 ft/sec). The 3D Vp model provides well-imaged 3D subsurface strain surface deformation model as input to tsunami hazard calculations. For complex
markers in Phase 1 area; no significant offset of Vp structure was observed. The fault ruptures or recurrence models, or buried faults, the probabilistic analysis
Phase 2 study of the marine terrace southeast of DCPP evaluated possible splay needs to be carried out all the way to the ground deformation. We will present
faults that may hard-link the San Luis Bay fault system (e.g., Rattlesnake fault) examples of applications of the PFDHA method, both in its strictly empirical
and the offshore Shoreline fault zone. Marine terrace deposits 20 to 50 feet thick form, in transportation applications and in a numerical form, for tsunami hazard
overlie a platform of subvertical Cretaceous Sandstone (Ks); top Ks was mapped purposes. We are also developing a hybrid method for computing full probabilistic
by creating a depth-to-first-strong-reflector map. Three lineaments were identified ground deformation through a combination probabilistic fault displacement and
across the platform, and no consistent bedrock step is seen across the previously numerical computation of the resulting ground deformation. By pre-computing
mapped Rattlesnake fault. A previously mapped unnamed fault north of Phase 2 ground deformation fields for a set of elementary subfaults, small enough to
area coincident with a magnetic-anomaly lineament is observed in 2011 reflection accommodate events at the lower magnitude bound and geometrical complexities
data as a high-angle alignment of reflection terminations. We propose the name of the fault, we can efficiently compute the co-seismic ground deformation for any
Irish Canyon fault for this structure, and hypothesize that it was an en echelon earthquake on the fault. Since the ground deformation can then be computed for
splay of the Tertiary San Miguelito-Shoreline fault system. every source in the integration, we compute a fully probabilistic displacement field.
Aleatory uncertainties from the probabilistic fault displacement can be carried over
to the displacement field because linearity of the system eliminates the need for an
expensive integration over the fault displacement distribution function. Epistemic
uncertainties are included in the same way as they are included in traditional
Characterizing the Potential Impacts of Surface Fault PSHA. The ground deformation parameter can be chosen as appropriate for the
Rupture on Transportation Systems problem at hand, be it fault displacement itself, uplift or subsidence, or strain in
Poster Session · Thursday · 23 April · Exhibit Hall A arbitrary directions.
Engineering Consequences and Mitigation for Surface Fault Rupture

BRAY, J. D., Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA, jonbray@berkeley.edu Earthquake Processes and Multiscale Modeling and
Sound engineering principles can be employed to address the hazards associated Characterization of Fragmentation and Damage Patterns
with surface fault rupture. Robust procedures exist for evaluating the consequences in Fault Zones
of permanent ground movements. Whereas their use in designing systems to Poster Session · Thursday · 23 April · Exhibit Hall A
accommodate ground movements due to a variety of phenomena is widely
accepted, their use in areas containing surface traces of active faults is often
questioned, even when the anticipated ground movements are minimal. Active Dynamic Gouge Compaction and Dilatancy as a Simple Mechanism for Fault
faults cannot always be avoided, nor should they be avoided, when their hazard is Zone Weakening and Short-Duration Slip Pulses
far less than other hazards and the hazard can be effectively mitigated through the HIRAKAWA, E. T., San Diego State University, San Diego, CA,
application of sound engineering concepts. In addressing the surface fault rupture ehirakaw@ucsd.edu; MA, S., San Diego State University, San Diego, CA,
hazard, the potential patterns of ground deformation should be developed through sma@mail.sdsu.edu
the use of a comprehensive investigation and detailed mapping. Measured patterns
of surface fault-induced ground deformation from similar types of faulting from Triaxial experiments show that samples of fault gouge deform distinctly differently
past events offer useful insights to complement site-specific studies. Mitigation can than those from the adjacent fault damage zone (e.g., Chester and Logan, 1986).
be achieved in those cases when avoidance is not possible or practical. Engineers Rock samples in the damage zone follow a characteristic elastic-brittle behavior,
can design structures to accommodate fault-induced ground movements. Building whereas fault gouge readily compacts and deforms in a more ductile manner.
strong, ductile structural foundation elements that can accommodate some level of In order to explain the apparent weakness of large plate bounding faults such
ground deformation and isolating the superstructure from much of the underlying as the San Andreas Fault, Sleep and Blanpied (1992) proposed a mechanism in
ground movement are effective design measures. Structures should not be tied into which compaction during interseismic creep reduces available pore space and hence
the ground with piles or piers. Other mitigation measures include establishing non- increases fluid pressure. However, Segall and Rice (1995) questioned elevated
arbitrary setbacks based on fault geometry and displacement, and the overlying soil; pore pressure in the interseismic period in that it stabilizes the fault. Here we
constructing reinforced earth fills to spread out the underlying ground movements; invoke a similar concept, however in this case the compaction process occurs
using slip layers to decouple ground movements from foundation elements; and dynamically via the stresses associated with earthquake rupture. We incorporate
using compressible materials to reduce ground-movement induced lateral earth undrained compaction into a dynamic rupture model of a strike-slip fault with
pressures. a strongly velocity-weakening friction (in a rate-and-state framework). A 20-cm
thick fault gouge layer is modeled by an end-cap failure criterion (e.g. Wong
et al., 1997) and experiences compaction and dilatancy, while the remainder
Surface Fault Rupture Characteristics of Reverse Faults of the model domain obeys the standard Mohr-Coulomb criterion. We show
MOSS, R. E. S., Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo, CA, rmoss@calpoly.edu that large dynamic stresses associated with rupture propagation cause the gouge
layer to compact ahead of the rupture front, leading to rapidly elevated pore
Reverse faults can result in “blind” faulting, and when they do rupture to the pressure in the undrained fault zone and significant dynamic weakening of
surface reverse faults often produce highly asymmetric deformation patterns. the principal fault surface. Compared to other dynamic weakening mechanisms
Our recent statistical and experimental research has been shedding light on the such as flash heating and thermal pressurization, this mechanism does not
likelihood of “blind” reverse faulting. The primary variables are near surface require slip to initiate. Weakening ahead of the rupture front lowers the peak
material stiffness, material type, and whether there is a pre-existing rupture plane. strength of the fault, leading to a lower strength drop on the fault. After the
The asymmetry of the surface deformation patterns are a function of the near passing of the rupture front, strong dilatancy of undrained fault gouge reduces
surface stress conditions and generally result in extensive deformations in the the pore pressure and restrengthens the fault, promoting a more pulse-like
hanging wall and limited deformations in the footwall. The distribution of these rupture.
deformations perpendicular to fault strike is examined statistically. The following
studies are to aid in the forecasting of surface impacts of reverse faults on civil
infrastructure. Characterization of Damage Structure and Heal of Rupture Zones by Fault-
Zone Trapped Waves
LI, Y. G., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA, ygli@usc.edu
Development and Applications of Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard
THIO, H. K., AECOM, Los Angeles, CA, hong.kie.thio@aecom.com; We present the co-seismic damage and post-mainshock heal of fault rocks at depth
SOMERVILLE, P., AECOM, Los Angeles, CA associated with the 1992 M7.4 Landers, the 1999 M7.1 Hector Mine and the
2004 M6.0 Parkfield earthquakes in California, and the 2010-2011 M7.1 Darfield
Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis is commonly used in and M6.3 Christchurch earthquakes in New Zealand through observations and 3-
circumstances where a project site crosses or straddles an active fault. This D finite-difference modeling of fault-zone trapped waves (FZTWs) generated by
analysis used limited to offset along the main fault, but more recently models have explosions and local earthquakes, and recorded at linear seismic arrays deployed

on 09 October 2018
across the surface ruptures. These FZTWs have been used to delineate the rupture Localized and Distributed Interseismic Creep Along the Southern San
segmentation and bifurcation related to the fault geometrical features, and to Andreas Fault?
evaluate the magnitude and extend of fault rock damage. In study sites, the the LINDSEY, E. O., UC San Diego, La Jolla, CA, elindsey@ucsd.edu; FIALKO,
FZTW-inferred rupture zones are marked by a waveguide several hundred meters Y., UC San Diego, La Jolla, CA, yfialko@ucsd.edu; BOCK, Y., UC San Diego,
wide, with 40-50% velocity reduction from wall-rock velocities, and extending La Jolla, CA, ybock@ucsd.edu; SANDWELL, D. T., UC San Diego, La Jolla,
to 5-6-km or deeper. Recently we found the FZTWs at the Calico fault for CA, dsandwell@ucsd.edu; BILHAM, R., University of Colorado, Boulder, CO,
teleseismic earthquakes, which show longer wavetrains than those generated by on- roger.bilham@colorado.edu
fault earthquakes. These FZTWs are simulated being formed by P-to-S converted
waves at the Moho and incident at the bottom of fault zone to obtain a better Geodetic observations from InSAR and survey-mode GPS across the southern San
documentation on the deep damage zone. Repeated experiments at Landers and Andreas fault in the Coachella Valley reveal systematic variations in the width of
Hector Mine rupture zones showed post-mainshock fault healing with recovery of the creeping zone related to the local fault strike, indicating a normal stress control
seismic velocity by several percents in few years, but the healing rate decreased with on shallow fault zone localization. InSAR observations from Envisat during the
time and varied among the fault segments. At Parkfield, repeated surveys revealed period 2003–2010 were used to separate the pattern of horizontal and vertical
2.5% velocity decrease within the San Andreas Fault due to co-seismic damage of motion, providing a high-resolution image of uplift and shallow creep along the
fault rocks in the 2004 M6 mainshock, and 1.2% velocity increase in 4 months fault trace. We validate the radar-derived creep rates with direct observations from
after the mainshock, due to fault heal. The magnitude of damage and heal on the creepmeters operated along the fault, and with a dense set of survey-mode GPS
SAF is smaller than those observed at Landers and Hector Mine ruptures. The observations. The data reveal pervasive shallow creep along the southernmost 50
knowledge of fault damage zone structure at depth will help predict the behavior km of the fault, including several areas where it has not been observed directly
of future earthquakes on active faults, and evaluate fault rupture models and the in the field. Creep is localized on a well-defined fault trace only in the Mecca
near-fault ground motion. Hills and Durmid Hill areas, while elsewhere creep appears to be distributed
over a 1–2 km wide zone surrounding the fault. The degree of strain localization
is correlated with variations in the local fault strike. Using a two-dimensional
Full Waveform Modeling of Regional and Fault-Specific Seismic Phases
boundary element model, we show that stresses resulting from slip on a curved
Along the San Jacinto Fault Zone Using Realistic 3D Velocity Models
fault can promote or inhibit inelastic failure within the fault zone in a pattern
ALLAM, A. A., University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK, aaallam@alaska.edu;
matching the observations. The occurrence of shallow, localized interseismic fault
TAPE, C., University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK, carltape@gi.alaska.edu; BEN-
creep within mature fault zones may thus be partly controlled by the local
ZION, Y., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, benzion@usc.edu
fault geometry and normal stress, with implications for models of fault zone
We present wavefield modeling results for detailed 3D models of the San Jacinto evolution, shallow coseismic slip deficit, and geologic estimates of long-term slip
Fault Zone (SJFZ), including both regional and fault zone seismic phases. Fault rates.
zones are complicated structures featuring vertical and semi-vertical interfaces
and fault-parallel zones of low seismic velocity which narrow with depth. These
structures have consequences on the seismic wavefield; bimaterial interfaces How Do Free Surface Lateral Slip Distribution and Off Fault Plastic Strain on
produce head waves which can be the first-arriving phase at near-fault stations, Strike Slip Faults Vary By Fault Surface Roughness?
while low-velocity zones can result in prominent late-arriving waves which YAO, Q., San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, q1yao@ucsd.edu; DAY, S.,
diminish in amplitude rapidly with increasing fault-normal distance. Both of San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, sday@mail.sdsu.edu; SHI, Z., San
these phases have been observed at stations and arrays of stations near the SJFZ. Diego State University, San Diego, CA, zshi@mail.sdsu.edu
Previous focused seismic imaging studies have successfully modeled these phases
using simple 1D or 2D approximations of more complicated fault zone structure, Natural faults have values of α ranging from 10−3 to 10−2, depending on
gaining insight into the average elastic properties of fault zones near specific seismic the degree of fault surface roughness [Fang and Dunham, 2013]. Fault surface
stations or arrays. However, these simple models often fail to properly characterize roughness have strong influence on the stress concentration around the fault,
and effect the earthquake process dynamically. The irregular stress concentration
other aspects of the seismic wavefield, in particular the amplitudes and arrival
times of body and surface waves. On the other hand, regional tomography models induced by fault surface roughness will lead to inelastic deformation of off-
which incorporate 3D structure generally provide good fits to body and surface fault material. In 1999 Izmit and Duzec Earthquake and 1940 Imperial Valley
Earthquake, surface slip measurements have demonstrated lateral variability of slip
wave arrivals, but completely fail to generate fault zone phases. In the present
work, we combine the two approaches, starting with high-resolution regional distribution. In 1999 Izmit and Duzec Earthquake, off fault plastic deformation
tomographic models of the San Jacinto Fault Zone and incorporating results counted for up to 40% of lateral slip [Rockwell et al, 2002; Rockwell et al, 2013].
of trapped wave and head wave studies to produce a unified model. We use In this study, we simulate 3D dynamic rupture propagations on a non-planar fault
with elastic or elastoplastic material off the fault [Shi and Day, 2013] by varying
this model to perform full wavefield simulations (using SPECFEM3D), fitting
body, surface, head, and trapped waves simultaneously to data observed in and fault surface roughness to investigate how fault roughness will control free surface
near the SJFZ. This study is the first step towards a full waveform tomographic lateral slip distribution and off fault plastic strain in detail.
inversion which incorporates all of the relevant regional and fault-specific seismic
phases. Scaling Properties of Foreshocks in Models of Laboratory-Scale Rate-and-
State Faults
Shear-wave Anisotropy Near the San Jacinto Fault Zone, Southern California HIGGINS, N., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
LI, Z., Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, zli354@gatech.edu; PENG, nhiggins@caltech.edu; LAPUSTA, N., California Institute of Technology,
Z., Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, zpeng@gatech.edu; Pasadena, CA, lapusta@caltech.edu
BEN-ZION, Y., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA,
benzion@usc.edu; VERNON, F., University of California, La Jolla, CA, On both natural and laboratory faults, some mainshocks are preceded by
flvernon@ucsd.edu foreshocks. In the case of laboratory experiments [McLaskey and Kilgore, 2013;
McLaskey et al., 2014], foreshocks are inferred to be occurring at asperities –
We examine crustal anisotropy along and around the San Jacinto Fault Zone i.e. bumps – on the fault interface. We seek to investigate the scaling of and
(SJFZ), using seismic data recorded by five small-aperture dense arrays crossing the seismic radiation from such asperity foreshock sources via 3-D simulations of
fault at different locations, and other near-fault permanent and temporary seismic long-term seismic and aseismic slip on a rate-and-state fault. On the simulated
networks. We apply an automated method to pick S phase, and compute delay fault, in accordance with the asperity interpretation of the foreshock sources, we
times and fast directions using the MFAST code (Savage et al., 2010). Using the add patches of higher normal stress. Such patches may also become smoother
2012-2014 data recorded by the five cross-fault arrays and other stations within after repeatedly sliding past each other, which one can incorporate through a
3 km from the surface fault trace, we find that the fast directions are generally reduced value of the rate-and-state characteristic slip distance. Both of these local
consistent with maximum horizontal compression, rather than along fault-strike differences in properties contribute to a smaller nucleation size at the asperities,
direction. This indicates that the regional stress is likely the dominant mechanism allowing these patches to potentially host smaller seismic events. The results
for the anisotropy in the area. However, both fast directions and delay times from our numerical simulations so far indicate that these asperities can indeed
show significant scatters along the fault, which may partly result from complexity host smaller seismic events within the slow nucleation of a larger-scale event.
of local structures and stress field. To systematically compare on- and off-fault Furthermore, the asperities can become seismic even when they are smaller than
anisotropy patterns in the SJFZ, we are in the process of analyzing more stations the theoretical nucleation size estimates for homogeneous faults. This clearly means
that are within 20 km away from the fault. Updated results will be presented in the that the heterogeneous patches behave differently than the homogeneous estimates
meeting. assume. We will report on our current work characterizing how the properties of

on 09 October 2018
the simulated asperity-based seismic events, including their nucleation size, rupture
area, and stress drop, depend on the degree of fault heterogeneity.
Source Geometry and Free Surface Influence on Earthquake Rupture Induced Seismicity
Characteristics in the Subduction Zone off Mexico’s Pacific Coast
CARRILLO-LUCIA, M. A., Instituto de Ingeniería, Mexico City, Mexico,
Poster Session · Thursday · 23 April · Exhibit Hall A
mcarrillol@iingen.unam.mx; RAMÍREZ-GUZMÁN, L., Instituto de Ingeniería,
Mexico City, Mexico, lramirezg@iingen.unam.mx Statistical Properties of Induced and Triggered Earthquakes at The Geysers,
California
We present an analysis of the variations of corner frequencies (fc) and their HAWKINS, A. K., University of California Davis, Davis, CA, akhawkins@
relationship with changes in geometry along four regions of the Mexican Pacific ucdavis.edu; TURCOTTE, D. L., University of California Davis, Davis,
coast. In this study, we evaluated 74 earthquakes using velocity and acceleration CA, dlturcotte@ucdavis.edu; YIKILMAZ, M. B., University of California
records. The database includes earthquakes with magnitudes higher than 5.5 that Davis, Davis, CA, mbyikilmaz@ucdavis.edu; KELLOGG, L. H., University of
were recorded from 1972 to 2012. We corrected the data, removing instrumental California Davis, Davis, CA, lhkellogg@ucdavis.edu; RUNDLE, J. B., University
response and applying baseline corrections, and used them to obtain slip functions of California Davis, Davis, CA, jbrundle@ucdavis.edu
that we then used to evaluate differences in corner frequencies for each region.
Clear differences are observed along the coast together with a correlation between In this paper we consider the statistics of induced and triggered seismicity at
the fc, the dipping angle, and the geometry of the subduction zone. Using 2D anti- The Geysers geothermal field, California. Little seismicity was reported before
plane dynamic rupture models, we explain the importance of the geometry and steam extraction began in 1960. In 1980 the residual water associated with power
free surface feedback under several assumptions regarding the initial conditions, generation was re-injected, producing induced seismicity. Beginning in 1997 large-
friction parameters, and crustal structure. scale injections of cold water began in order to enhance the generation of steam.
This led to an increase in M < 1.2 earthquakes from approximately five per
Imaging Supershear Laboratory Earthquakes with Ultra High-speed DIC month to twenty. The induced seismicity satisfies Gutenberg-Richter (GR) scaling
RUBINO, V., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, to a good approximation with b Ÿ 1.3. We show that aftershocks of the larger
vito.rubino@caltech.edu; ROSAKIS, A. J., California Institute of Technology, induced earthquakes also satisfy GR scaling as well as Omori’s law for their time
Pasadena, CA, arosakis@caltech.edu; LAPUSTA, N., California Institute of dependence. For the M = 4.48 earthquake that occurred on 1/12/14 we have b Ÿ
Technology, Pasadena, CA, lapusta@caltech.edu 1.35 and ?M* = 1.5 (?M* is the difference between the mainshock magnitude and
the largest inferred aftershock from GR scaling, modified Bath’s law, and a measure
Ground motion characterization is pivotal in seismic hazard assessments. We of aftershock productivity). Both values are somewhat high but well within the
employ a laboratory earthquake setup to characterize the ground motion and range found for normal seismicity. We will also present statistics of triggered
quantify attenuation for both supershear and sub-Rayleigh events. Earthquakes are seismicity at the Geysers. The 8/24/14 Mw = 6.02 South Napa earthquake
mimicked in the laboratory by dynamic rupture propagating along the inclined triggered a M Ÿ 4.38 event as well as some 80 other M > 1.25 events. The GR and
frictional interface of two quadrilateral Homalite plates prestressed in compression decay statistics will be given, but in order to separate second order aftershocks from
and shear. The diagnostics previously employed in this setup include temporally triggered aftershocks we study other examples of triggered sequences. The M = 7.2
accurate but spatially sparse laser velocimetry measurements as well as a sequence 4/4/10 Baja earthquake had some 34 M >1.25 triggered events in the first hour
of full-field photoelastic images. These measurements have been successfully including a M = 3.37 event. The M = 6.8 3/10/14 Cape Mendocino earthquake
employed to capture key rupture features but they do not give enough information had some 23 M > 1.25 triggered events in the first hour. Statistical studies of these
to characterize the full-field strains and stresses. In this study, we detail our and other triggered sequences will be given.
development of the ultra high-speed DIC technique to capture the evolution
of full-field displacements, particle velocities, strains, and stresses. Displacement Magnitude-Frequency Distribution of Potentially Induced Earthquakes in the
and velocity maps are used to quantify the ground motion. These full-field DIC Guy, Arkansas Sequence
measurements constitute an important advancement in diagnostics capability. HUANG, Y., Stanford University, Stanford, CA, huangyihe85@gmail.com;
For example, they allow us to analyze supershear rupture at an unprecedented BEROZA, G., Stanford University, Stanford, CA, BEROZA@stanford.edu
level of detail and to quantify the attenuation of motion away from the
fault. The concern over earthquakes induced by fluid injection lead to an urgent need
to understand better the physical mechanisms of injection-induced seismicity.
Towards Reconciling Magnitude-Invariant Stress Drops with Dynamic We have explored the magnitude-frequency distribution (MFD) and spatial-
Weakening temporal evolution of injection-induced seismicity by improving detections of
PERRY, S., Caltech, Pasadena, CA, sperry@caltech.edu; LAPUSTA, N., small earthquakes using single-station waveform template matching. Our analysis
Caltech, Pasadena, CA, lapusta@caltech.edu of the Guy Sequence in central Arkansas reveals at least 100 times more
earthquakes than are archived in the ANSS catalog, with ˜ 430,000 earthquakes
Stress drops, observed to be magnitude invariant, are a key characteristic used detected from July, 2010 to October, 2011. The magnitude of completeness of the
to describe natural earthquakes. Laboratory experiments indicate that dynamic new catalog is reduced to approximately -1. The application of template matching
weakening, such as thermal pressurization and flash heating, may be present in the to the Guy sequence provides a more complete picture of the seismicity evolution.
natural earthquake setting. At first glance, these two seem incompatible. How can Its temporal correlation with the operation of injection wells suggests a mix mode
stress drops remain constant across many orders of magnitude of different sized of induced (through injection) and triggered (through a resulting cascade of failure)
events if the larger events experience greater weakening and should thus experience earthquakes. The sequence continued after October, 2011 with a greater fraction
lower final stresses? We hypothesize that dynamic weakening can be reconciled of repeating events with similar magnitudes later in the sequence. The significant
with magnitude-invariant stress drops due to larger events having lower average reduction of the magnitude of completeness in the new catalog also gives better
prestresses when compared to smaller events. The additional weakening would resolution of the MFD and of b values. We find significant temporal variations
allow the final stresses to also be lower, but the stress drops may be roughly the in the MFD with respect to Gutenberg-Richter statistics, and the overall trend
same. We simulate a one-dimensional fault in an elastic half space using a fully of the decrease of b values that suggest temporal changes in deformation patterns
dynamic earthquake sequence simulation code that uses rate-and-state friction and source mechanisms. Clusters of potentially induced earthquakes also exhibit
and allows for dynamic weakening due to thermal pressurization and flash heating. heterogeneous patterns of nucleation, arrest and recurrence along the fault, which
Through these simulations we are also able to explore the trend of increasing may help constrain the physical processes responsible for induced seismicity.
breakdown energy with increasing event size. Our results show that a single
simulation may explain both the stress drop magnitude invariance and breakdown Relative Contributions of Tectonic Strain and Pumping to Seismicity at
energy increase. Dynamic weakening is able to explain the increases in breakdown California Geothermal Fields
energy, as Rice (2006) has suggested. We see larger initial stresses for smaller events WEISER, D. A., USGS and UCLA, Pasadena, CA, dweiser@usgs.gov;
than for medium sized events and we are able to produce a range of events of JACKSON, D. J., UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, david.d.jackson@ucla.edu
several magnitudes that have roughly constant stress drops. However, our largest,
model-spanning events do not fit the trend. Our future work includes simulations In a tectonically active area, a definitive discrimination between induced and
with more heterogeneous prestresses that may allow the largest events to also have natural earthquakes is difficult to achieve. To this end, we focus our study on
magnitude invariant stress drops. We will also move to a 2D fault model for more California’s 11 geothermal fields due to the state’s requirement for monthly
natural comparisons with observed earthquake data. injection and production data. Since many of the geothermal fields began injection

on 09 October 2018
and production before reliable seismic stations were in place, we use average strain Improved Detection and Location of Microseismicity During the 2005
rate as a proxy for natural earthquake rate. Globally, a reliable association exists Habanero EGS Stimulation in the Cooper Basin of South Australia
between average strain rate and earthquake rate. Average tectonic strain rate is TEMPLETON, D. C., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA,
proportional to seismic moment rate, when one assumes an elastic strain release. templeton4@llnl.gov; JOHANNESSON, G., Lawrence Livermore National
We examine both average strain rate and pumping rates as factors that may control Laboratory, Livermore, CA, johannesson1@llnl.gov; PYLE, M., Lawrence
earthquake rate. We estimate relative contributions to the observed earthquake Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, pyle4@llnl.gov; MATZEL, E.,
rate of M=3 from both tectonic strain (natural) and pumping activity (induced). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, matzel1@llnl.gov
Rather than focusing on the largest earthquake, which is essentially a random
occurrence in time, we examine how rates of M=3 earthquakes vary in time. For our We apply the empirical matched field processing (MFP) method to continuous
study locations, each earthquake catalog is complete above at least M3. Using the seismic data to detect and determine preliminary locations for more
California strain rate map, we infer the tectonic component by integrating strain microearthquakes than can be detected using only conventional earthquake
rate over an area within a fixed distance from injection wells. We assume that the detection techniques. We demonstrate that empirical MFP can complement
induced component is proportional to the pumping activity. existing catalogs and techniques by using archived seismic information to increase
earthquake catalog completeness for subsequent improved b-value studies. The
Detection of Induced Seismicity Due to Oil and Gas Extraction in the Northern empirical MFP method finds events in the continuous data stream by identifying
Gulf of Mexico, USA signals that match pre-defined master templates. We identify and construct
FADUGBA, O. I., Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA USA, fadugba@bc.edu; representative master templates using known events identified during the 2005
EBEL, J. E., Weston Observatory, Weston, MA USA, john.ebel@bc.edu Habanero Stimulation within Cooper Basin, Australia. The master templates are
then matched to continuous data obtained from the local 8 station seismic array.
Drilling operations and extraction of oil and gas (O&G) may lead to subsurface For the events with the highest signal-to-noise ratio, we apply a local Bayesian
slumping or compression of sediments due to reduced vertical principal stress multiple-event seismic location algorithm that determines a suite of posterior
which may lead to small earthquakes at the drilling site. O&G extraction is locations and presents the results graphically using 95% confidence ellipsoids
common in the northern Gulf of Mexico (NGM) and only thirty-five earthquakes centered at the mean location. This work performed under the auspices of the
of magnitudes between 2.3 and 6.0 have been recorded in the area from 1974 to U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under
the present. The purpose of this research is to detect more earthquakes using stacks Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.
of seismic data from the Transportable USArray (TA) from 2011 to 2013, and
determine the spatiotemporal relationship between the detected earthquakes and Characterizing Earthquake Clusters in Oklahoma Using Subspace Detection
O&G extraction. TA waveform records were retrieved from IRIS database and MCMAHON, N. D., Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO,
a narrow bandpass filter of 1-2 Hz was applied to remove background and high Nicole.McMahon@colostate.edu; BENZ, H. M., National Earthquake
frequency signals and noises. A prestack RMS Automatic Gain Control (AGC) was Information Center„ Golden, CO, benz@usgs.gov; ASTER, R. C., Colorado
applied to boost the signals at farther stations. Previous earthquakes were analyzed State University, Fort Collins, CO, Rick.Aster@colostate.edu; MCNAMARA, D.
for NMO velocity in order to correct for the moveout in P- and S- waves due to E., National Earthquake Information Center, Golden, CO, mcnamara@usgs.gov
different arrival times as they propagates. Hilbert transform was used to determine
waveform envelopes to avoid destructive stacking. A weighted stacking method We apply a subspace detection methodology to two recent earthquake clusters
was applied to the P and S waves. An event was detected when the P- and S- in Oklahoma: 1) a highly energetic sequence near the town of Guthrie, and 2)
lamdas are greater than 3. The seismic records was plotted vertically with respect to an energetic (with events to date as large as M4.3) sequence near Cushing, a
station distance from the Gulf for better visualization and discrimination of events. critical site for U.S. oil/gas energy infrastructure. Subspace detection is a powerful
Five (5) new small offshore earthquakes, that may be associated with the offshore and adaptive methodology for detecting signals within continuous data down
O&G production, have been detected in the data. The epicenters were determined to very low signal/noise levels. Subspace detectors improve upon simple cross-
using HYPO2000 software and constrained using a jackknife statistical technique. correlation/matched filtering techniques by using multiple orthogonal waveform
Spatiotemporal correlation of the epicenters with offshore drilling sites will be templates that effectively span the signal subspace of all previously identified events.
applied to determine if the earthquakes were induced by O&G extraction. Other Subspace detectors are particularly useful in scenarios where a spatially limited
earthquake activities that may be associated with the offshore O&G production source distribution produces earthquakes with highly similar waveforms. Since
must be at a magnitude below the detection threshold of the algorithm. 2009, the central U.S. has experienced an unprecedented increase in seismicity,
attributed, in part, to recent expansion in deep wastewater injection well activity.
Possible Effects of Geothermal Operations on Earthquake Triggering Here, we analyze two areas of dense seismic activity in central Oklahoma and
Processes in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field construct more complete catalogues for analysis. In the Guthrie sequence, we are
CHEN, X., University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, xiaowei.chen@ou.edu; able to track changes in b -values with high temporal resolution and note possibly
MCGUIRE, J., Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, cyclical changes that correlate with the occurrence of larger events, and would thus
jmcguire@whoi.edu be useful in applications to operational earthquake forecasting. In the Cushing
sequence, daily injection volume data from three nearby wastewater disposal
An exceptionally high rate of microearthquakes occurs within the Salton Sea wells help demonstrate a statistically significant temporal correlation between
geothermal field in southern California. Understanding the effect of possible wastewater injection and seismicity in the local fault zone. For both clusters, we are
geothermal operations on earthquake source processes is of great important able to achieve catalog completeness to near or below magnitude 1. Our catalogs
for hazard mitigation purposes. Located within an active tectonic region, this thus offer substantial improvements over traditional detection/location methods
area is prone to naturally occurring earthquake swarms, such as the 1981 and in more completely characterizing seismicity in time and space. This detailed
2005 swarms, both featuring M5 earthquakes. The spatial-temporal correlation examination of swarm events should lead to a better understanding of time varying
between seismicity and injection suggests that the effect of geothermal operation is seismogenic processes and hazards in Oklahoma.
significant on earthquake triggering within the geothermal field. The high quality
data in this region present an opportunity to evaluate the role of fluid in active
faulting. In this study, we obtain data for over 7000 earthquakes from 2008 to Rupture Characteristics of Hydraulic Fracture Induced-Triggered Seismicity
2014 recorded by 8 borehole stations within the geothermal field. We relocate Using Wide-band Recordings from 0.1Hz to 1kHz
earthquakes using 3D velocity model and double-different method. The three URBANCIC, T. I., ESG Canada Inc., Kingston, ON, Canada, ted.urbancic@
seismicity clouds surrounding groups of injection wells remain a robust feature gmail.com; BAIG, A. M., ESG Canada Inc., Kingston, ON, Canada,
compared with previous seismicity. Analysis of earthquake source parameters adam.baig@esgsolutions.com; BOSMAN, K., ESG Canada Inc., Kingston, ON,
through empirical-Green’s function analysis of P-wave spectra suggests that the Canada
Brune-type stress drop increases with distance away from injection wells up to 2
km. High-resolution earthquake location reveals evidence of fluid-driven spatial The occurrences of larger-magnitude events (M>0) associated with hydraulic
migration. Both seismicity clustering and source spectra suggest an important role fracture stimulations may pose concerns from both a public perception and an
of fluid in the earthquake generation process. Analysis of seismicity from 2009 to engineering perspective. Through the use of a unique hybrid seismic recording
2013 found diffusive migration during the beginning stage of the 2010 earthquake network, we investigate the fracture characteristics of these induced-triggered
swarm and possible velocity changes concurrent with this swarm. We are currently events by examining both the dynamics of the sub-fracture failures during the
conducting analysis of S-wave waveform to reveal velocity changes associated with rupture process and growth of the overall fracture from initiation to rupture
earthquake swarms and energy radiation from the microearthquakes, in order to arrest. This was achieved by incorporating both high-frequency recordings utilizing
better understand spatial-temporal variations of fault strength changes, and the downhole 3C 15 Hz omni-directional geophones situated in close proximity to the
possible correlation with temperature and fluid distributions. reservoir and thereby the point of rupture initiation, intermediate-depth downhole

on 09 October 2018
3C Force Balance Accelerometers (0.1Hz) and geophones (4.5Hz), and near- that the composite catalogs consist of individual, local sequences that may have
surface, low-frequency 3C recordings obtained using Force Balance Accelerometers unique recurrence behaviors, and tests with synthetic catalogs indicate that high-
(0.1Hz) and geophones (1 Hz, 2Hz and 4.5Hz) that allowed for the investigation rate seismic swarms with maximum magnitudes of 4.5 can give rise to elevated
of overall rupture characteristics. By utilizing such a recording network, we were apparent b values. We investigate the sensitivity of the b values to swarming activity
able to examine different aspects of the rupture processes, including the role of and completeness.
asperities, roughness, the role of fluids and the failure mechanisms (shearing versus
tensile dominance of behavior) associated with these induced-triggered events. The Conway Springs Earthquake of November 2014 – A Rare Moderate-Sized
Our initial results suggests that overall shearing is the dominant mode of failure, Earthquake in Kansas
whereas the rupture characteristics of the sub-fracture failures are more complex CHOY, G. L., U. S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO, choy@usgs.gov; BOYD,
than a simple shearing process and include a strong tensile component of failure. O. S., U. S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO, olboyd@usgs.gov; MCNAMARA,
Our measurements of rupture complexity, seismic efficiency, rupture velocity D. E., U. S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO, mcnamara@usgs.gov; MILLER, R.,
and estimates of stress release further support the idea that the sub-fractures are Kansas Geological Survey, Lawrence, KS, miller@kgs.ku.edu; RUBINSTEIN, J.,
characterized by the failure of multiple asperities that exhibit self-similar behavior U. S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CO
within them. These observations are part of ongoing investigations that may allow
for the assessment of conditions under which induced-triggered failures may occur. The largest recorded earthquake in Kansas (Mw 4.8) occurred on 12 November
2014 near Conway Springs about 50 km southwest of Wichita. Until 2013,
moderate-sized earthquakes such as this one were uncommon in Kansas.
Low Stress Drops Observed for the 2011 M5.7 Prague, Oklahoma Earthquake Concomitant with and subsequent to a boom in wastewater-injection activity,
Sequence the Sumner and Harper County regions of south Kansas experienced a surge
NEIGHBORS, C., University of California, Riverside, CA, cneig001@ucr.edu; in seismic activity similar to well-documented increases seen in Oklahoma and
SUMY, D. F., Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology, Washington, Texas. At least 97 earthquakes with M 2.04.8 had been reported by the USGS
DC, sumy@iris.edu; COCHRAN, E. S., U.S. Geologic Survey, Pasadena, CA, in Harper and Sumner Counties since the beginning of 2013 up until the main
ecochran@usgs.gov; ATKINSON, G. M., University of Western Ontario, shock. Of these, three M>3.0 earthquakes preceded the main shock and occurred
London, ON, Canada, gatkins6@uwo.ca; KERANEN, K. M., Cornell University, in February and July 2014 within 5 km of the Conway Springs earthquake.
Ithaca, NY, kmk299@cornell.edu Knowledge of the location, size and tectonic environment of this earthquake is
crucial for evaluating seismic hazard. Modeling of regional waveforms indicates a
In November 2011, three M=5.0 earthquakes and thousands of aftershocks normal oblique-faulting mechanism for the main shock with a depth of nucleation
occurred along the structurally complex Wilzetta fault system near Prague, of about 5 km in the shallow crystalline basement. After applying a multiple-
Oklahoma, in close proximity to wastewater injection wells. Keranen et al. [2013] earthquake hypocentroidal decomposition to relocate the main shock and the
concluded that fluid injection was responsible for inducing the M5.0 foreshock. larger aftershocks, we find the spatial distribution of epicenters has a SSW lineation
Furthermore, Sumy et al. [2014] found that the initial M5.0 event increased the suggesting oblique right-lateral strike-slip faulting. Like other recent earthquakes
Coulomb stress in the region of the M5.7 mainshock, which triggered a cascade in Oklahoma, felt intensities for the main shock are unusually low farther afield
of earthquakes along the Wilzetta fault. Hough [2014] examined intensities (>10km from the epicenter) suggesting a stress drop that is low relative to tectonic
from induced earthquakes, and found that while ground shaking is large at very earthquakes in the central and eastern U.S. Widely felt throughout the central
close distances due to shallow focal depths, shaking is lower than expected at U.S. from Kansas City, MO to Lawton, OK (both about 200 miles distant from
greater distances possibly due to low stress drops. She infers that stress drops are the epicenter), the earthquake also caused minor damage to older brick buildings
on the order of 2-10 times lower than those associated with regional tectonic in Milan, KS, located about 4 km southeast of the epicenter. Additional source
events and suggests the low stress drops may be due to the presence of fluids characteristics of this earthquake may provide insight into its causative nature
from nearby injection. Furthermore, Sun and Hartzell [2014] performed a finite- (tectonic or induced).
fault inversion of the M5.7 event, and found an average stress drop of 90 bars,
which is approximately half that of the M5.8 Mineral, Virginia earthquake, a
natural CEUS event. In contrast, Yenier and Atkinson [2015] have shown that Characterization and Classification of Discrete Clusters of Earthquakes from
stress drop increases with increasing depth and thus the low stress drops may 2008-2015 in North-Central Arkansas, Natural or Induced: Illustrating Their
be primarily related to their shallow focal depths. In this study, we examine the Influence on the National Seismic Hazard Maps
stress drops of a subset of 368 aftershocks of the Prague, Oklahoma sequence AUSBROOKS, S. M., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, scott.
that range in magnitude from M0.7-4.9. We use a Gauss-Newton method to fit ausbrooks@arkansas.gov; HORTON, S. P., University of Memphis, Memphis,
the source spectra of these earthquakes to a standard Brune point-source model. TN, shorton@memphis.edu
We find a preliminary median stress drop of 3 bars, which is significantly lower
North-central Arkansas has seen a significant increase in both unconventional
than typical values (100+ bar) expected for CEUS events. We will investigate
resource development within the Fayetteville Shale Play and seismicity since 2009.
the dependence of stress drop on magnitude, focal depth, and proximity to
The study area is historically seismically active, but it has seen an increase in
wells.
seismic activity since 2009 that is likely a combination of both natural and human-
induced clusters and even swarms of earthquakes (including the Guy-Greenbrier
Recurrence Analysis for Potentially Induced Earthquakes in Oklahoma, earthquake swarm of 2010-2011). We review earthquake catalogs from the Center
Kansas, and the Raton Basin of Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) and the Arkansas Geological
MUELLER, C. S., U. S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO, cmueller@usgs.gov; Survey (AGS) to obtain key characteristics including location, magnitude, and
MOSCHETTI, M. P., U. S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO, depth of the earthquakes within each discrete cluster. Then we determine if a
mmoschetti@usgs.gov spatial and temporal correlation existed between discrete individual clusters of
earthquakes that had occurred within 10km of an active Class II saltwater disposal
We examine recurrence statistics for recent, potentially induced earthquakes well, or within 5km of production wells undergoing hydraulic fracturing during
in three zones in the US midcontinent where catalogs are large enough the time of the seismic activity. Proximity to the large reservoir impoundment of
to analyze completeness levels and magnitude-frequency distributions: south– Greer’s Ferry Lake will be noted due to its static weight and periodic loading and
central Oklahoma, northern Oklahoma–southern Kansas, and the Raton Basin unloading. We are developing criteria modified after Davis and Frohlich (1987 and
in Colorado and New Mexico. Weichert’s methodology (BSSA, 1980), which 1993) to rate and assign a probabilistic classification to the clusters of earthquakes
accounts for variable completeness, is applied to estimate b values. These kinds of as to their likelihood of being natural or induced. This information can be used to
results will be used to develop models that incorporate the hazard from induced help determine whether these earthquakes should be included in future National
seismicity in the USGS national seismic hazard maps. Results are sensitive to Seismic Hazard Maps.
completeness assumptions and whether the full (pre-declustering) or declustered
catalog is used. For south-central Oklahoma, analysis of the full catalog with A 3D Model of Pore Pressure Diffusion Associated with Induced Seismicity
completeness levels of magnitude 2.7 in 2014 and 4.7 since 2011 yields a b value in Guy, Arkansas
estimate of 1.3. For northern Oklahoma–southern Kansas, analysis of the full OGWARI, P. O., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, opogwari@
catalog with a completeness level of magnitude 2.7 in 2014 yields a b value estimate memphis.edu; HORTON, S. P., University of Memphis, Memphis, TN,
of 1.4. Neither catalog appears to be complete for magnitudes smaller than 2.7. shorton@memphis.edu
Analysis of the two corresponding declustered catalogs yields b values close to
1.0. For Raton, analysis of the full catalog with completeness levels of magnitude While the (Mohr-Coulomb) triggering mechanism of induced seismicity due to
2.7 since 2011 and 4.2 since 2001 yields a b value estimate of 1.0. We recognize subsurface wastewater injection is well understood, pressure migration from the

on 09 October 2018
well to the fault (especially faults at depths greater than injection) is not. The known active faults and other faults favorably oriented for slip under the tectonic
induced events of the 2010/2011 Guy-Greenbrier swarm provide a stage to analyze stress field. We analyze the variations in frequency-magnitude distributions, which
the nature of pressure diffusion and distribution within the Ozark aquifer and can be related to differences between the physical conditions at the sources of fluid-
Precambrian basement faults. We use MODFLOW to model different scenarios of induced and natural earthquakes. To investigate differences, if any, in the potential
pressure diffusion in a confined system due to the injection history at wells near the for injection-induced seismicity in California compared with the stable continental
Guy-Greenbrier fault. Preliminary results show that hydraulic connection between interior, we examine fundamental tectonic and geological factors that influence the
the injection interval and the fault is necessary to increase the amount of pressure in nucleation depths and rupture characteristics of shallow earthquakes in the two
the fault and the consequent pressure propagation, and a limited range of diffusivity regions. In particular, we aim to identify which tectonic and geological settings
(0.1< D<10) is necessary to create a pressure buildup over a large area. A test favor the occurrence of larger injection-induced events such as those that have
for a basement fault that is not connected to the aquifer where injection occurs occurred in the midcontinent but have not been identified or reported in Southern
shows no pressure difference within the fault and the surrounding area following California to date.
an increase of pressure in the overlying aquifer. However, a slight break of the fault
into the aquifer provides a connection for pressure diffusion into the fault when
there is an increase in pressure above the breaking point. The pressure gradient Analysis of Seismicity Coincident with Hydraulic Fracturing of a Well in
increases below the break point and migrates along the fault from that point with Southern Oklahoma
continued injection. Injecting above an aquifer fault requires higher volumes to DAROLD, P., Oklahoma Geological Survey, Norman, OK, adarold@ou.edu;
build up pressure around the fault as compared to injecting above a basement fault. HOLLAND, A., Oklahoma Geological Survey, Norman, OK,
This is due to the higher rate of pressure diffusion in the formation as seen from the austin.holland@ou.edu; GIBSON, A. R., Oklahoma Geological Survey,
SRE well. In a case where high volume is injected close to a fault that cuts through Leonard, OK, amiegibson@ou.edu
the aquifer into the basement, as is the case for the Trammel well and the Enders A hydraulically fractured well in Southern Oklahoma revealed a strong temporal
fault, the fault provides a direct conduit for the fluids allowing pressure buildup at correlation between injection parameters and the occurrence of earthquakes
the bottom of the fault. The pressure change then decays faster into the formation distinct from the local background rates of seismicity. While Southwest Oklahoma
than along the fault. has a low level of background seismicity, about 10 located events per year, there
have been 53 earthquakes located in the area during 2014. Of the recent events,
Induced Seismicity in Western Alberta Due to Oil and Gas Activities 32 coincide with the 2-day hydraulic fracturing of the well, while an additional 52
WONG, I., AECOM, Oakland, CA, ivan.wong@aecom.com; BOTT, J., events have been identified through waveform cross-correlation. The largest event
AECOM, Oakland, CA; NEMSER, E., AECOM, Oakland, CA located in this sequence occurred just 100 minutes after well stimulation began;
it was a magnitude 3.2ML and was located 4.5 km southwest of the well. This
Since the mid-1980’s, induced seismicity due to oil and gas activities has been was the only event reported as felt by local residents while the majority of events
recognized in western Alberta, Canada within a transition zone between the in this sequence are estimated under magnitude 2.5ML located within 1-9 km
Cordilleran Foreland Belt and the Interior Plains. Natural seismicity is sparse in from the well at depths of 3.5-8.5 km. By plotting the reported wellhead pressures
the zone and the largest historical earthquake has only been a ML 6.0 in 1918. and injection rates through time, we see a convincing correlation concerning
Wetmiller (1986) first recognized seismicity possibly due to fluid extraction in the seismicity and the individual stages hydraulically fractured at this well. The
the Rocky Mountain House area. We identified other cases of induced seismicity impeccable temporal correlation, seismicity distinct from background rates, and
due to hydraulic fracturing and/or wastewater injection. We used the following the relatively close spatial proximity to the well suggest a causal link. What remains
criteria to identify induced earthquakes based on regional seismic monitoring: to be explained is the apparent spatial offset between the stimulated well and
1) whether events occurred prior to oil and gas activity; 2) whether there are the earthquakes coupled with the negligible timespan between the stimulation
seismogenic structures in the area; 3) whether focal depths are close to or at of the well and the onset of seismicity. Greater geotechnical information will
maximum injection depths; and 4) whether earthquakes occur within 5 km of aid in addressing earthquake location uncertainties and further geomechanical
wells. After identifing and removing blasts, we identified 4 areas of induced considerations as to how this sequence of earthquakes may have been triggered by
seismicity: Smoky River, Brazeau River, Turner Valley, and Del Bonita, in addition hydraulic fracturing.
to Rocky Mountain House. An additional case of induced seismicity was initiated
in the Crooked Lake area during our studies. Based on a database of extraction,
injection, and hydraulically-fractured wells, we attempted to identify the causes of Towards Understanding Source Mechanism of Hydraulic Fracturing Induced
the observed seismicity based on spatial and temporal relationships. The largest Earthquakes: Sensitivity Analyses using a Constrained Focal Mechanism
observed induced earthquake in the 6 areas was a M 4.1. Due to an insufficient Inversion Method
number of earthquakes covering a M range more than two units, we calculated IIDA, S., Yokoama City University, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan, n145203c@
a composite recurrence for the 6 induced seismicity areas. The b-value was 1.0 yokohama-cu.ac.jp; KIM, A., Yokohama City University, Yokohama, Kanagawa,
similar to values estimated in other areas worldwide of injection-induced seismicity. Japan, ahyik@yokohama-cu.ac.jp
This b-value supports the prevailing model that injection-induced earthquakes Understanding the source characteristics of hydraulic fracturing induced
are similar to tectonic earthquakes and that their occurrence has simply been microearthquakes is expected to provide better understanding of both the
accelerated by the pore pressure increases due to fluid disposal, fluid extraction fracturing process and the influence of pre-existing structures on the distribution
and/or hydraulic fracturing. of events. However, details of the source characteristics of the microearthquakes
remain largely unknown. One controversial issue is whether a significant
Discrimination and Assessment of Potentially Induced Seismicity in Tectonic volumetric change occurs because of the stimulation. Answering this question
Active Zones – A Case Study from California is important to provide the insight of the future effective and safer hydraulic
BACHMANN, C. E., Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, fracturing. Although the moment tensor inversion is one of the best approaches
cebachmann@lbl.gov; FOXALL, W., Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, for studying source mechanisms, it is often biased due to uncertainty of geologic
CA, bfoxall@lbl.gov model, sparse receiver coverage and low signal to noise ratio for this types of
induced earthquake analyses. So it is necessary to quantify the factors which bias
Earthquakes induced by human activity have become a matter of heightened public the solution. Herein, to address this question, we modified the double couple
concern during recent years. Of particular concern is seismicity associated with focal mechanism inversion method using the body-wave amplitude ratio and
wastewater injection, which has lead to events greater than 5. The cause of the polarities developed by Snoke (2003) for stimulation induced microearthquake
induced events are primarily changes in pore-pressure and fluid volume. Most analysis. Since our goal is to figure out whether it is possible to identify volumetric
recent research focused on mid-continental regions with low rates of naturally- change with limited receiver azimuthal coverage, it is necessary to incorporate
occurring seismicity. While injection induced events can be identified in those the non-double couple mechanism in the inversion. Since the mechanism of the
regions by relatively straightforward spatial and temporal correlation of seismicity microearthquakes can be considered as 1) shear slip along the pre-existing fracture
with high-volume injection activities, it still has been difficult to establish causality surface, 2) an tensile displacement which increase the porosity, or 3) a combination
definitively. Here,we discuss the potential occurrence of induced seismicity in of these mechanisms, we added tensile crack component to the original method. In
active tectonic regions. We concentrate our study on Southern California, where this manner, we have smaller degree of freedom to stabilize the inversion than that
large numbers of wastewater injection wells are located in oil-producing basins that of full moment tensor case. Synthetic test is performed under the various condition
experience moderate to high rates of naturally-occurring seismicity. First, we aim and showed successful input model recovery. The approach is then applied to
to discriminate induced from natural events based on spatio-temporal patterns of the hydraulic fracturing induced seismicity observed during the stimulation in the
seismicity occurrence characteristics and their relationships to injection activities, Carthage Cotton Valley Gas Field.

on 09 October 2018
Identification of Induced Seismicity Using the Theory of Records of an event without assumptions in distribution of uncertainties in MT elements.
ZHU, J., Tufts University, Medford, MA, jing.zhu@tufts.edu; BAISE, L. G., We incorporate this scheme in the estimation of the network sensitivity solution
Tufts University, Medford, MA, laurie.baise@tufts.edu; VOGEL, R. M., Tufts (NSS), or distribution of variance reduction (VR) of best fitting MT solution on
University, Medford, MA a source-type grid for some example events. We find NSS computed using the
inversion approach to be faster and capable of finding better-fitting MT solutions
In recent years, there have been several cases of induced seismicity that have by VR ˜ 0-5% when compared to the present way of computing NSS by forward
caught the attention of both the general public and the science community. modeling a large population of randomly generated MT. We also propose and test
Induced seismicity in Oklahoma has been well documented at several locations. an approximate method for inverting P-wave FM polarity data and jointly inverting
We demonstrate a method for identifying emerging regions of induced seismicity waveform and polarity data using the same inversion technique to further constrain
through changes in the frequency of record breaking earthquakes. The theory of the source-types.
records has successfully been used to identify nonstationarity in other series (e.g.
floods and temperature). A record breaking event is the largest earthquake to occur Statistical Properties of Microearthquakes Induced by Hydraulic Fracturing
in a series as of a given date.. The series of record events are those events which have MAGHSOUDI, S., University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada,
exceeded all previous events. Seismicity of a region and of the globe is generally samira.maghsoudi@ucalgary.ca; EATON, D. W., University of Calgary,
considered to be a stationary process (at least in the human time scale). With Calgary, AB, Canada, eatond@ucalgary.ca; DAVIDSEN, J., University of
the increase in recent observations of induced seismicity, there is a growing need Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada, davidsen@phas.ucalgary.ca
to address the potential nonstationarity of seismicity and to develop methods to
characterize such behavior for use in hazard studies. Applying the theory of records Permeability-enhancing treatments such as hydraulic fracturing induce
to the earthquake catalog for Oklahoma, we identify emerging areas of induced microseismic events that normally are too small to be felt at the surface.
seismicity, identifying temporal increases in the occurrence of record breaking Knowledge of the spatio-temporal evolution of microseismicity is helpful to gain
earthquake events. For each nonoverlapping one year interval, the sequence of insights into the development of fracture processes and imaging hydraulic fracture
record breaking events is identified. For the Oklahoma catalog, we first determine geometry. The temporal monitoring of the dynamics of the fracture processes and
that the earthquakes in the catalog prior to 2009 represent stationary seismicity. perturbations to the background stress field allows us to detect weakened regions
We determine the record breaking sequence for each year after . After 2009, the and evaluate risks of inducing slip on pre-existing faults and fractures. In order to
number of record breaking events is consistently above the preexisting (pre-2009) analyze the potential for large magnitude events, the spatio-temporal variability
range, providing evidence of nonstationarity in the earthquake record. By applying of the event size distribution, often characterized by the b-value, needs to be
the same record breaking analysis to subregions in Oklahoma, we identify which investigated. This information can be helpful to improve our understanding of
regions show evidence of nonstationarity in the seismicity. the different modes of failure and fracture mechanics during hydraulic fracturing.
The seismic hazard associated with hydraulic fracturing needs to be studied
Fracture-Mechanics-Based Constraints of Maximum Magnitude of Induced in order to estimate the probability of further large and potentially damaging
Earthquakes events during and after stimulation. Analyzing and forecasting the seismicity
GALIS, M., King Abdullah University, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia, martin. during hydraulic fracturing is an important step towards time-dependent seismic
galis@kaust.edu.sa; AMPUERO, J. P., California Institute of Technology, hazard assessments. This study aims to analyze the statistical characteristics of
Pasadena, CA, ampuero@gps.caltech.edu; MAI, P. M., King Abdullah microseismic catalogues in order to identify more specific details about fracture
University, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia, martin.mai@kaust.edu.sa mechanics during hydraulic fracturing treatments. We also investigate possible
options for more reliable seismic hazard assessment in hydraulic fracturing based
This work is a first step towards a more complete integration of earthquake on statistical methods used to forecast seismic aftershock sequences such as
physics and rupture dynamics into a theoretical and computational framework Epidemic Type Aftershock Model. Combining statistical and physical models,
for modeling induced and triggered seismicity. Empirical relations for a maximum we can better determine the evolution of microseismicity, including forecasts for
magnitude of induced earthquake lack a physics-based relation between earthquake seismicity rates and expected intensities.
size and the characteristics of the triggering stress perturbation consistent with
current models of the earthquake rupture process. To fill this gap, we will extend
our recent results on the nucleation and arrest of dynamic rupture derived from Preliminary Likelihood Testing of Earthquake Rate Models from Induced
fracture mechanics theory. In our previous work, we derived theoretical relations Seismicity
between the properties of overstressed nucleation regions (their size, shape and HOOVER, S. M., U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO, shoover@usgs.gov;
overstress level) and the ability of dynamic ruptures to either stop spontaneously MOSCHETTI, M. P., U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO,
(sub-critical ruptures) or runaway (super-critical ruptures). These relations were mmoschetti@usgs.gov; PETERSEN, M. D., U.S. Geological Survey, Golden,
verified by comparison to 3D dynamic rupture simulations on faults governed by CO, mpetersen@usgs.gov; MCNAMARA, D. E., U.S. Geological Survey,
slip-weakening friction. We also found that similar arguments successfully predict Golden, CO, mcnamara@usgs.gov
the relation between rupture arrest distance and external loading in laboratory
The significant increase in induced seismicity rates in the central United States
experiments in which frictional sliding is nucleated by localized stresses. Here, we
since late 2009 corresponds with an increase in seismic hazard. Because of the
apply and extend these results to situations that are representative of the induced
anthropogenic contribution to the increased earthquake rates, seismicity rates
seismicity environment. We will present physics-based predictions of the rupture
show a complicated spatio-temporal evolution. Rate forecasts developed from the
arrest size in this context, and we will compare them to the results of 3D dynamic
earthquake catalog are strongly dependent on the time window and duration.
rupture simulations. The implications for the maximum magnitude of seismicity
In support of the development of an earthquake rate model of potentially
induced by fluid injection will be discussed, as well as for the dependence of stress
induced seismicity for the USGS national seismic hazard model (NSHM), we
drop of induced events as a function of distance to the injection well.
investigate the ability of smoothed-seismicity models to predict the rate and
spatial distribution of induced seismicity in the central United States. The study
Source-Type Specific Inversion of Moment Tensors focuses on the increased seismicity rates, centered on Oklahoma and southern
NAYAK, A., Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, avinashguddu07@ Kansas. We compute earthquake rate models from smoothed seismicity by using
berkeley.edu; DREGER, D. S., Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, various smoothing parameters and various time periods. Models are developed
dreger@seismo.berkeley.edu from various catalogs, for example, the NSHM earthquake catalog and a recent,
multiple-event re-located earthquake catalog. The rate models are compared using
The estimation of best-fitting seismic moment tensor (MT) solutions using low commonly-applied tests (L-test, N-test) that evaluate the likelihood that the spatial
frequency displacement waveforms or P-wave first motion (FM) polarities or distribution and number of events in a testing catalog from late-2014 could have
both, is important for source-type characterization of induced seismic events and been generated from a given seismicity rate forecast model. Preliminary results
other exotic seismic sources like explosions, mine-collapses and events in volcanic suggest that the spatial patterns and absolute rate of seismicity from the end of
environments. The elements of the general MT can be expressed in terms of: 2014 are best characterized by the previous six months of seismicity.
(1) its normalized eigenvalues that characterize its source-type, (2) a seismic
moment scale factor that scales the normalized eigenvalues to appropriate moment,
and (3) its eigenvectors that specify its orientation. We use this formulation to Increased Earthquake Rates in the Central and Eastern US Portend Higher
design an inversion scheme to invert waveforms for best-fitting eigenvectors and Earthquake Hazards
moment scale factor, hence the best-fitting MT solutions, for assumed normalized LLENOS, A. L., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, allenos@usgs.gov;
eigenvalues. This approach is useful in inverting for best-fitting MT tensor of any RUBINSTEIN, J. L., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA,
specified source-type and in assessing uncertainties and trade-offs in source-type jrubinstein@usgs.gov; ELLSWORTH, W. L., US Geological Survey, Menlo

on 09 October 2018
Park, CA, ellsworth@usgs.gov; MUELLER, C. S., US Geological Survey, be used to reduce the number of stations needed, yet provide reasonable accuracy
Denver, CO, cmueller@usgs.gov; MICHAEL, A. J., US Geological Survey, of location and magnitude will facilitate the use of seismic monitoring at waste
Menlo Park, CA, michael@usgs.gov; MCGARR, A., US Geological Survey, injection sites by industry and regulators, and in turn help researchers to get
Menlo Park, CA, mcgarr@usgs.gov; PETERSEN, M. D., US Geological a better understanding of induced seismicity. Cross correlation (CC) detectors
Survey, Denver, CO, mpetersen@usgs.gov; WEINGARTEN, M., University of with template events have been used successfully to identify earthquakes where
Colorado, Boulder, CO, matthew.weingarten@gmail.com; HOLLAND, A. A., traditional STA/LTA detector methods alone often fail due to low signal to
Oklahoma Geological Survey, Norman, OK, austin.holland@ou.edu noise ratios. Furthermore, seismicity induced by fluid injection has shown to have
remarkable similarity between earthquakes at different scales, particularly in cases
Since 2009 the central and eastern US has seen a dramatic increase in the rate observed in Ohio where individual faults have been recently activated in 2014. This
of M=3 earthquakes that is unlikely to be due to random variation. Where the characteristic, combined with the ability to lower the threshold of detection by 2
rate has increased so has the seismic hazard, making it important to understand orders of magnitude make CC techniques ideal candidates for use in a traffic light
these changes. Areas with significant seismicity increases are limited to where system to monitor induced seismicity. In our work we have developed a near real-
oil and gas production take place. By far the largest contributor to the increase time single station 3-component CC detector that uses a robust statistical approach
is Oklahoma, where recent studies suggest that the rate changes may be due to to identifying events. When combined with an STA/LTA detector in Earthworm,
fluid injection (e.g., Keranen et al., Geology, 2013; Science, 2014). Moreover, the a CC detector can work with networks that have as few as 5 stations.
area of increased seismicity in northern Oklahoma that began in 2013 coincides
with the Mississippi Lime play, where the number of well completions rose
greatly the year before the seismicity increase. This suggests a link to oil and Surface Deformation Rates at the Southern Salton Sea: Ongoing Fault Slip or
gas production either directly or from the disposal of significant amounts of Geothermal Energy Production?
produced water within the play. For the purpose of assessing the hazard from BARBOUR, A. J., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, abarbour@usgs.gov;
these earthquakes, should they be treated differently from natural earthquakes? EVANS, E. L., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, eevans@usgs.gov;
Previous works suggest that induced seismicity may differ from natural seismicity HICKMAN, S. H., US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, shickman@usgs.gov;
in clustering characteristics or frequency-magnitude distribution (e.g., Bachmann ENEVA, M., Imageair Inc., Reno, NV, meneva@imageair-inc.com
et al., GJI, 2011; Llenos and Michael, BSSA, 2013). These differences could affect
time-independent hazard computations, which typically assume clustering and size Recent advances in InSAR processing methods offer the capability to measure
distribution remain constant. In Oklahoma and other areas of suspected induced ground deformation rates in areas that are traditionally decorrelated (e.g.,
seismicity, we find that earthquakes since 2009 tend to be considerably more farmland) with unprecedented spatio-temporal coverage. We apply these
clustered in space and time than before 2009. However differences between various techniques to investigate the possible relationship between geothermal energy
regional and national catalogs leave unclear whether there are significant changes in production and surface deformation in the seismically active Salton Trough in
magnitude distribution. Ultimately, whether they are due to natural or industrial southern California. Surface velocity fields at the southern end of the Salton
causes, the increased earthquake rates could increase the hazard in ways that are Sea show distinct patterns of localized subsidence in an area of seismic swarms,
not accounted for in current hazard assessment practice. Thus the possibility of aseismic slip, and possible induced seismicity; the maximum observed subsidence
induced earthquakes must be considered in seismic hazard assessments. rate is ˜15 mm/yr relative to that at Obsidian Butte, corroborated by local leveling
surveys. The associated surface tilt fields show localized features centered around
Combined Data Inversion for Full Moment Tensors of Small Earthquakes locations of injection and production wells within the Salton Sea Geothermal
BOYD, O. S., University of California, Berkeley, CA, sierra@ Field, decaying to background levels within 2-4 km. Using a regional block
seismo.berkeley.edu; DREGER, D. S., University of California, Berkeley, model, we examine the possibility that the observed deformation patterns are a
CA, ddreger@berkeley.edu manifestation of rigid, fault-bounded crustal blocks accommodating the transition
between plate-boundary regimes. We estimate microplate rotations, fault slip rates,
The increase in awareness of microseismicity associated with industrial activities and spatially variable slip on the Obsidian Butte fault, finding that the combined
has prompted the need to characterize the source physics of induced seismicity. effects of tectonic deformation and aseismic fault slip are likely insufficient to fully
For M > 3.5 events, waveform data with good signal-to-noise ratios from regional describe pronounced features in the observed deformation rates, which often have
networks can provide reasonable estimates of moment tensor solutions, and wavelengths on the order of 10 km or less. Reservoir depletion models predict
detailed analysis of uncertainties can provide reliable determinations of seismic symmetric tilt vectors, yet only tilt amplitudes appear to be symmetric, with the
source type (Ford et al., 2009, 2010). The study of smaller magnitude events direction of tilt biased towards the West: this may indicate an interaction between
limits the amount of suitable long-period seismic waveform data, and thus higher production of fault-bounded reservoirs and fault slip. While it is possible that
frequencies need to be employed from closer stations (Guilhem et al., 2014). In deformation patterns are a reflection of net fluid loss from local geothermal energy
addition, other studies have utilized first-motions separately, or first-motions in production, superimposed on faulting-related deformation, further geomechanical
concert with body wave amplitude ratios to determine full seismic moment tensors modeling is needed to confirm or deny this connection.
(Julian and Foulger, 1996). To determine the significance of recovered non-double-
couple solution parameters and their uncertainty requires a suitable data set. Sparse
waveform, first-motion and amplitude ratio data sets each individually are prone to Development of a Ground Motion Prediction Method for Carbon Dioxide
large uncertainties in non-double-couple solution parameters. In this investigation Injection-Induced Earthquakes
we expand the Network Sensitivity Solution (NSS) approach of Ford et al. (2010) STONE, I. P., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM,
to utilize jointly seismic waveform, first-motion and body wave amplitude ratios of istone@lanl.gov; LEE, R. C., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,
small Geysers, California earthquakes to constrain full moment tensor solutions of NM, rclee@lanl.gov; BRADLEY, C. R., Los Alamos National Laboratory,
M < 3.5 events. For test events we will develop the NSS goodness of fit solution Los Alamos, NM, cbradley@lanl.gov; LARMAT, C. S., Los Alamos National
space to ascertain the resolution of the seismic moment tensor, range of uncertainty Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, carene@lanl.gov
and the uniqueness of the results. In addition, we will employ other statistical tests
such as bootstrap and Jackknife tests to investigate the stability and uncertainties The process of injecting carbon dioxide into geologic reservoirs as a means of
of the obtained moment tensor solutions. carbon sequestration is believed to increase the risk of induced seismicity in the
region of injection. An important component in characterizing induced seismicity
Cross-correlation Traffic Light Systems for Induced Seismicity risk is the development of application-specific ground motion prediction (GMP)
FRIBERG, P. A., ISTI, New Paltz, NY, p.friberg@isti.com; DRICKER, I. G., methods. A method is developed for a proposed injection site utilizing the induced
ISTI, New Paltz, NY, i.dricker@isti.com seismicity GMP equations of Douglas et al., 2013, and incorporating site-specific
adjustments. Development of the GMP model focuses upon situations in which
Traffic Light Systems introduced in geothermal sites and used for monitoring there is very little in-situ data from the proposed site of injection. The resultant
induced seismicity, are now a necessary tool in monitoring waste water injection model can estimate ground motion response for induced events between Mw 1.0-
sites where seismicity can be a concern to operators. Examples of such systems 4.0 at epicentral distances of 1-50 km, periods of ground motion between 0.01
deployed in British Columbia and Britain rely on dense seismic arrays installed and 0.5 seconds, and Vs30 between 100 and 2000 m/s. A statistical consideration
over the injection regions. Sufficient density of the surface arrays allows traditional of input uncertainties for an uncharacterized site demonstrates that the total
earthquake detection and location techniques to work well. However, deploying uncertainty of the method is large compared to regional-specific GMP models.
dense networks in an urban environment is expensive and time consuming and However, analysis considering the reduction of input uncertainty through in-situ
may not be necessary. In Britain and Ohio, the thresholds at which operators data collection indicates that the total uncertainty of the method could be reduced
must take action are at very low magnitudes (0.5 and 1.0 respectively) which to levels appropriate for engineering applications, including probabilistic seismic
require a sensitive network of seismometers to achieve. Any techniques that can hazard assessment.

on 09 October 2018
Effects of the Earth Characteristics on Induced Seismicity Potential related small variation of the fault strength may trigger seismic events. The M7.9
HOSSEINI, S. M., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, Sichuan earthquake of May 12, 2008 that killed more than 60 000 people is
seyedmeh@usc.edu; AMINZADEH, F., University of Southern California, Los suspected to be related to the construction of the Zipingpu Dam. RIS and RTS
Angeles, CA, faminzad@usc.edu at dams correlate both with stress changes in the underlying crust, likely caused
by the static or cyclic load of the water column in the reservoir and the changes
It is widely accepted in the literature that fluid injection and production from in pore pressure in pre-existing faults beneath the reservoir. Although magnitude,
the Earth may cause seismic events. Cases such as Basel, Switzerland related to distance range and timing of both factors differ, it is not trivial to distinguish them.
geothermal energy development as well as Arkansas, Ohio, Oklahoma and Texas Even if some observations indicate a connection between earthquake magnitude
related to wastewater disposal associated with oil and gas production gained public and dam height or water volume, respectively, this relation may probably not be
attention. There are several physical mechanisms that can perturb the Earth’s stress generalized. Questions concern the distance/depth range that may be influenced
and cause slip along faults. Pore pressure increase and effective stress decrease, by pressure variations induced by the reservoir depending directly on the diffusivity
thermal stresses and strains, stress perturbation due to mechanical effects of and permeability of the crustal volume, the maximum hypocentral distance that
hydraulic fracture propagation and other mechanisms can contribute to induced can be ascribed to the influence of an impoundment basin and the elastic short-
seismicity. In this work we investigate the effect of pore pressure increase due to term and long-term responses of the affected crustal volume. We review cases
injection and production as the induced seismicity mechanism. First, principles of dam related seismicity and discuss a scheme how to combine a probabilistic
of fluid flow in porous media are reviewed and characteristics such as reservoir discrimination with physical modeling of Coulomb stress for RIS and RTS.
size, permeability, porosity, fluid viscosity and compressibility are identified as
the key factors pertaining to reservoir pressure response. Using Mohr-Coulomb
failure criteria we define the required pore-pressure increase for fault instability. How to Mitigate Rockburst Induced Ground Excitations in Structural Design
We generate a random distribution of faults in our domain of study where ZEMBATY, Z., Opole University of Technology, Opole, Poland,
they have certain distribution of required pore-pressure increase for instability. z.zembaty@po.opole.pl; KOKOT, S., Opole University of Technology,
The earthquake magnitude is sampled from a distribution following Guttenberg- Opole, Poland, s.kokot@po.opole.pl; LAI, C., Pavia University, Pavia, Italy,
Richter law. We introduce a simple homogeneous, isotropic representation for carlo.lai@eucentre.it
the reservoir to study the main factors affecting induced seismicity behavior in
a reservoir. Then we use a reservoir simulator to represent the possible induced Induced seismic events with magnitudes mL reaching 4 and some time exceeding
seismicity in a realistic reservoir condition with different injection and production 5, e.g. [1], may generate substantial surface ground motion [2], requiring
scenarios. Our approach is stochastic in its nature which addresses the uncertain investigations how these excitations may affect structural response or even building
nature of earthquakes. The insight from this modeling exercise, helps in managing safety. Mitigation of natural earthquakes has led to develop seismic codes used
the possible risks related to subsurface injection and mitigating possible hazard. by civil engineers in structural design (e.g. [3]). Their direct application for
the induced tremors is faced however with two important issues: 1) different
spectral content and duration of mine tremor records, 2) different definition of
Monitoring Earthquakes Triggered by the Impoundment of the La-Romaine-2
seismic risk associated with induced seismicity. Particularly the second issue is very
Reservoir, Quebec, Canada
difficult to tackle in a rational way. The philosophy of civil, seismic engineering
LAMONTAGNE, M., Geological Survey of Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada,
codes is directed towards extreme earthquakes with 475 years return period for
malamont@nrcan.gc.ca; KARA, R., Hydro-Québec Équipement, Montreal, which the buildings should be designed including substantial capacity for inelastic
QC, Canada, Kara.Redha@hydro.qc.ca; TOURNIER, J. P., Hydro-Québec deformations controlled by special, reduction ’q’ factors. This is not the case of even
Équipement, Montreal, QC, Canada, tournier.jean-pierre@hydro.qc.ca; NOEL, the most extreme mine tremors which occur with the return period of a few years.
G., Hydro-Québec Équipement, Centrale Romaine-2, Havre-St-Pierre, QC, The presentation planned for the 2015 SSA Meeting in Pasadena will be devoted to
Canada, noel.gaetan@hydro.qc.ca; LAVOIE, D., Geological Survey of Canada, present a practical approach developed for LGOM Copper Mine Basin in Poland
Quebec, QC, Canada, denis.lavoie@nrcan.gc.ca [3] to mitigate mine tremors in structural design using the European seismic code
The Romaine-2 hydroelectric project is located in the North-Shore region of the [4]. References [1] McGarr, A., Bicknell J., Sembera E., Green R. Analysis of
province of Québec, approximately 80 km north of the town of Havre-Saint- exceptionally large tremors in two gold mining districts of South Africa, Pure and
Pierre. The dam crosses the Romaine River at km 90.4 and creates a reservoir of Applied Geophysics, v.129, 1989, pp.295-307 [2] Zembaty Z. Rockburst induced
approximately 81 km2 at the full supply level of 243.8 m. The project involves the ground motion—a comparative study. Soil Dynamic & Earthquake Engineering,
construction of a 110 m high dam and six dikes with heights up to 80 m that close v. 24, 2004, pp.11-23 [3] Zembaty Z., Kokot S, Bozzoni F., Scandella L, Lai C.,
the reservoir. The impoundment was relatively fast; the reservoir started filling in Kuś J., Bobra P., A system to mitigate deep mine tremor effects in the design of
mid-May 2014 with the spring snowmelt and was completed in early-November civil infrastructure. Int. Journal of Rock Mechanics & Mining Sciences, vol. 74,
2014. In terms of natural earthquake activity, the Romaine River region is not 2015, pp. 81-90, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijrmms.2015.01.004 [4] EN 1998-1. Eurocode
very active, similar to most of the Grenville Geological Province. Between 1985 8: Design of structures for earthquake resistance; 2005
and 2014, only three events between mN 3.0 and 3.7 have been detected within a
50 km radius of the dam. Because some other hydroelectric reservoirs of the area
Toward a Public Data Policy for Induced Seismicity in Italy
had some documented reservoir-triggered seismicity (Manic 3, Sainte-Marguerite-
PRIOLO, E., CRS-OGS, Trieste, Italy, epriolo@inogs.it; MUCCIARELLI, M.,
3, Toulnustouc), two portable three-component short-period seismographs were
CRS-OGS, Trieste, Italy, mmucciarelli@inogs.it
installed near the reservoir. A permanent broadband station of the Canadian
National Seismograph Network is also in operation some 45 km from the dam. As Untill few years ago Italy had been featuring a deep lack of publicly shared
of January 2015, tens of reservoir-triggered earthquakes have been detected with knowledge about induced seismicity, compared to several other countries. No
Nuttli magnitudes ranging from 0.0 and 2.2. Preliminary analysis reveals that most public data were available to perform any scientific study, and the few paper
earthquakes occur within 10 km of the dam, beneath the deepest portion of the published from 1964 to 2004 came from in-house operations of private companies.
reservoir. Strong Rg phases indicate shallow focal depths. No regional-scale faults Three events contributed to drive the change in attitude toward induced seismicity
have been mapped in the reservoir, but lineaments are visible in satellite imagery. in recent years: 1) the improvement of the national seismic network (RSNC-
Additional data from the field stations are currently being analyzed. INGV) reduced the completeness threshold in many areas, so that microseismicity
associated to anthropic activity could become more evident; 2) for the first time, a
Reservoir Induced/Triggered Seismicity: A Review company running a gas storage plant accepted to have a monitoring system whose
BRAUN, T., INGV-Roma1, sede di Arezzo, Arezzo, AR, Italy, thomas.braun@ data and metadata could be made completely public (i.e., the Collalto seismic
ingv.it; DAHM, T., GFZ-Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, torsten.dahm@gfz- network managed by OGS on behalf of Edison Stoccaggio S.p.A.); 3) after the 2012
potsdam.de; KUEHN, D., Norsar, Kjeller, Norway, daniela@norsar.no Emila earthquake, rumors were spread that it could be related to human activities
in the region, and this prompted a series of government-led initiatives, including
Reservoir-Induced-Seismicity (RIS) is constituted of earthquakes of non-tectonic two international commissions. Two recent, additional initiatives are noteworthy,
origin and was first observed in 1932 for the Quedd Fodd Dam in Algeria. which involved both Italian research institutions and public officers. The first one
Since then, more than 70 cases of RIS have been reported; the most prominent lead to a white book on the status of knowledge about induced seismicity in Italy,
example is the M6.7 earthquake on Dec 11, 1967 in W-India that killed more than and the second one lead to the release of guidelines for mandatory monitoring of
200 people. Reservoir-Triggered-Seismicity (RTS) is composed of earthquakes of seismicity, ground deformation and pore pressure in areas where human activities
tectonic nature caused by seismo-tectonically active faults situated close to large capable of generating earthquakes are carried out. This presentation reviews the
reservoirs and may thus be more significant in terms of seismic hazard. The initial present status of those initiatives, with special focus on the impact on public
stress rate is already close to failure, such that a minor stress change or a reservoir- perception built on the Collalto Network experience.

on 09 October 2018
Angeles, CA, okaya@usc.edu; SUMY, D. F., Incorporated Research Institutions
Microseismics in Academia, Government and Industry for Seismology Consortium, Washington DC
Poster Session · Thursday · 23 April · Exhibit Hall A Increasing data volumes and waveform quality in recent generations have
underscored the utility of efficient and effective processing methods that require
minimal operator direction. Higher quality data, combined with repetitive,
4D Tomography and Deformation from Microseismic Data
automated precision, will yield more complete earthquake catalogs, which provide
CROWLEY, J. W., ESG Canada Inc., Kingston, ON, Canada,
a better picture of the subsurface fault structure. The geophone array placed in
john.crowley@esgsolutions.com; BAIG, A. M., ESG Canada Inc., Kingston, the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) borehole provides an
ON, Canada, adam.baig@esgsolutions.com; URBANCIC, T. I., ESG Canada opportunity to explore the complex fault structure along the Parkfield segment of
Inc., Kingston, ON, Canada the SAF, an area where M6 earthquakes can frequently occur. From 29 April to
11 May 2005, Paulsson Geophysical Services (PGS) deployed 80 three-component
Microseismic data is becoming increasingly important for understanding the
geophones in the SAFOD borehole to record active source shots and earthquakes.
effects of hydraulic fracturing on reservoirs. Typically, microseismic events provide
PGS placed the sensors within the inclined portion of the SAFOD borehole at a
information on discrete fractures within the reservoir. While useful, it is an open
depth interval between 878-1703 m below sea level (˜1500-2000 m deep). These
question whether microseismicity is directly mapping the fully fluid-activated
sensors continuously recorded seismic data at 0.25 ms (4 MHz) and were spaced
discrete fracture network or a combination of different affects, including damage
at 15.2 m (50 ft) along the length of the array, for a total length of ˜1200 m.
induced fractures. Both deformation and the introduction of fluids will result in a
In this work, we apply an automated waveform cross-correlation technique to
change in the bulk properties of the reservoir. In this study, microseismic events are
waveforms recorded by the extended downhole geophone deployment at SAFOD
used to image changes in seismic velocity associated with hydraulic fracturing. As
and other nearby surface and borehole stations. Initially, we apply this template
such, this work studies both the discrete and bulk properties of the reservoir using
matching technique to waveforms recorded by the High Resolution Seismic
one self-consistent data set. The reservoir is discretized into a grid of 3D volume
Network (HRSN) and Parkfield Telemetered Array (PASO) stations, drawing
elements and the events grouped by the volume in which they occur. The seismic
templates from the relocated earthquake catalog compiled by Waldhauser and
moment of the events is used to determine a time at which the majority of the
Schaff [2008]. An initial catalog of 100 earthquakes produced by PGS outlines
deformation has occurred. This provides an approximate time for each element
three main fault strands, which is consistent with the inferred fault geometry at
that separates pre-deformation from post-deformation. 3D velocity variations are
SAFOD. We will use the template matching technique to augment the size and
calculated using the microseismic data and travel time tomography. Elements with
resolution of this catalog, and to understand the earthquake clustering behavior
sufficient ray path coverage are permitted two distinct velocity values: one for pre-
along the Parkfield segment of the SAF.
deformation and one for post-deformation. Rays traveling through an element
prior to the deformation transition time will travel at the pre-deformation velocity
while rays passing through afterwards will travel at the post-deformation velocity. Exploring Differences between Epicenter locations from an Array of Surface
The difference between the post-deformation and pre-deformation velocity reveals Seismometers and a Downhole Array of Geophones at The Napoleonville Salt
changes directly associated with the treatment. Preliminary results indicate a Dome, Louisiana
decrease in seismic velocity near the treatment zone. A more complete analysis MOUSAVI, S. M., Center for Earthquake Research and Information, Memphis,
of velocity changes and deformation rates over the full reservoir is ongoing and TN, smousavi@memphis.edu; HORTON, S., Center for Earthquake Research
expected to provide useful information to differentiate betweeh microseismicity and Information, Memphis, TN, shorton@memphis.edu
driven by fluid flow and dry events.
Microseismic activity at the Napoleonville salt dome, Louisiana, has been closely
Investigating the Relationship Between Velocity Model Complexity and monitored since July 2012 using a surface network of six to eleven seismometers
Earthquake Location Accuracy within less than one km of the sinkhole that was formed at the edge of salt
GREIG, D. W., Nanometrics Inc., Ottawa, ON, Canada, dome on August 2-3, 2012. Most of the micro earthquakes located by the surface
wesgreig@nanometrics.ca; BATURAN, D., Nanometrics Inc., Ottawa, seismic network were located at shallow depth along the northwest edge of the
ON, Canada, dariobaturan@nanometrics.ca; LAW, A., Nanometrics, Inc., salt dome adjacent to the sinkhole. In October 2013, a downhole array of 3
Ottawa, ON, Canada, andrewlaw@nanometrics.ca component geophones was deployed in the salt from 1000 to 3000 feet depth. A
broader range of earthquake depths and horizontal locations have been observed
Earthquake location is one of the primary applications of seismic data and with the borehole array. We will compare and discuss event location solutions
accurate earthquake locations are a prerequisite for a broad range of studies. On from the two catalogues of microseismic events; surface and downhole. We have
large, regional scales with many stations, higher location error is expected and found that at this point the surface and downhole arrays tend to detect and
uncertainties or unmodeled heterogeneities in the assumed velocity model often locate mostly different sets of events. So far most of the events located by the
do not have a significant impact on the quality of an earthquake location. However surface network have been the larger near surface events although we find the
for sparse, local networks such as those used for induced seismicity monitoring, array can detect deeper events as well. The borehole array tends to detect and
uncertainties in the velocity model can have a large impact on earthquake locations locate smaller events that occur in the salt. By setting up a more robust and
and may be detrimental to the analysis of seismicity in a region. For example sensitive automatic detection algorithm, we are able to dig out a larger number
accurate computation of event magnitude, a necessity for induced seismicity of events from the continuous seismic data that includes many of the deeper
monitoring networks, requires an accurate event location. In this study, a synthetic earthquakes.
experiment is performed to evaluate the effect of velocity model complexity, station
density, and errors in the assumed velocity model with respect to the quality of
Study the Locations and Focal Mechanisms of Micro-seismic Events Near a
earthquake locations. We construct travel time grids for velocity models of varying
High Velocity Interface
complexity and then randomly simulate events to generate travel times and picks
SMITH, T., University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA,
for a synthetic catalogue. We locate the simulated events with networks of varying
trevorsmith@umail.ucsb.edu; JI, C., University of California, Santa Barbara,
station density and analyze the resultant errors in computed event location. Finally
Santa Barbara, CA USA, ji@geol.ucsb.edu
the effect of locating earthquakes using an incorrect velocity model is explored.
We find that velocity model complexity plays an important role in the quality of We study the locations and focal mechanisms of induced micro-seismic events
earthquake locations that can be expected for a local network. In particular, the near a horizontal high velocity interface. The events are first identified and
presence of low velocity zones significantly increases location uncertainty for sparse located using Waveloc software package (Langet et al., 2014). It processes
networks, especially in the vertical direction. However increasing the number the continuous data using a Kurtosis estimator to enhance the first arrival
of stations can reduce some of the uncertainty introduced by velocity model information and then migrates the results onto a predefined search grid using
complexity. Our results highlight the importance of accurate velocity structure in pre-calculated P-wave travel times and finally stacked. Local maxima in the
earthquake location for local networks. resulting 4D space-time grid indicate the locations and origin times of seismic
events. The focal mechanisms of large events are subsequently constrained using
Complex Fault Structure Revealed with Improved Earthquake Catalogs near seismic waveforms and a cut-and-paste approach. These events locate close to
the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth Borehole Array the high velocity interface, which produces distinguished perturbations to the
WALKER, R. L., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, observations. It allows us to further improve their locations relative to the interface
rlwalker@usc.edu; OKAYA, D. A., University of Southern California, Los simultaneously.

on 09 October 2018
Detection of Repeating Earthquakes Using the Cascadia Initiative event detection on a much larger continuous data set will be presented at the
Amphibious Dataset meeting.
MORTON, E. A., New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM, emorton@nmt.edu; BILEK,
S. L., New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM, sbilek@nmt.edu; ROWE, C. A., Los
Alamos National Lab, Los Alamos, NM, char@lanl.gov Earthquake Detection in Central Virginia Using a Dual Template and
Autocorrelation Method
The Cascadia region is host to a variety of slip processes ranging from KELLY, A. L., James Madison University, Harrisonburg, VA,
instrumentally-observed local, shallow seismicity and episodic-tremor-and-slip to kelly2al@dukes.jmu.edu; BROWN, J. R., James Madison University,
large (M9) megathrust earthquakes reported historically and confirmed through Harrisonburg, VA
geologic and paleoseismic evidence. The proximity of the seismogenic sources, in
particular the megathrust, to large at-risk population centers makes it imperative In this study, we detect several earthquakes previously undetected in central
that we better understand the seismotectonics in this area. Recent deployment Virginia using an autocorrelation method in tandem with a template method.
of the Cascadia Initiative (CI) Amphibious Array provides large-scale seismic On August 23, 2011 a moderate 5.8 event occurred in Mineral, Virginia. This
coverage both onshore and offshore for the first time in the area. This is event resulted in several aftershocks, as well as surprise to the public. In addition
particularly useful to study seismogenic zone (SZ) earthquakes, as most occur to the main event aforementioned, we use the 6 largest local events within the
offshore. Here, we use small magnitude (M ˜ 0.1 to 3.7) SZ earthquakes from last ten years as templates to search for smaller, repeat events. We search for the
land seismometer-based catalogs during the first year of CI deployment, and smaller events using the running autocorrelation of waveforms for 1-hour worth
find their corresponding waveforms on the CI ocean-bottom seismometers, as of data following each large event at local stations within a 70 km radius. Time
well as some nearby land seismometers. These waveforms serve as templates lags in the waveforms directly after each large event show strong similarity in the
for waveform-cross-correlation and subspace detection to find similar, previously autocorrelation representing either repeats or near-repeats of smaller events that
undetected earthquakes. Preliminary tests have found over 600 detections of events resemble the first, larger earthquake. Once these smaller events are identified, we
located near previously identified subducting seamounts. Future work will address cross correlate waveforms to locate the events and measure the relative arrival times.
the full four-year CI deployment, whose analysis will better characterize area The results will be able to explain the origin of these 6 larger earthquakes and
seismicity and fault zone asperities, and allow for linkage of different slip process augment the local catalog.
types.
Automated P-wave Onset Time Detector based on Dissipated Damping
Automatic Detection and Picking of Direct P, S and Fault Zone Head & Energy of SDF Oscillator
Trapped Waves KALKAN, E., U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, ekalkan@usgs.gov
ROSS, Z. E., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, zross@usc.edu; A new approach is developed for detecting P-wave onset in single-component
BEN-ZION, Y., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, acceleration or broadband velocity records without requiring any threshold
benzion@usc.edu settings. The algorithm (“PWDETECTOR” henceforth) transfers the signal into a
We develop a set of algorithms for automatic identification and picking of P response domain of a linear-elastic single-degree-of-freedom (SDF) oscillator with
and S body waves and fault zone head and trapped phases. The P body wave viscous damping, and then tracks the rate of change (power) of dissipated damping
arrivals are picked using a kurtosis-based algorithm, while S body wave picking energy in order to detect the P-wave phases. The SDF oscillator has a short natural
is done using polarization analysis and related filters to remove P-wave energy period and a correspondingly high resonant frequency, which is higher than most
and then utilizing STA/LTA and kurtosis detectors to lock on a well-defined frequencies in a seismic wave. It also has a high damping ratio (or fraction of critical
phase arrival. We search automatically in P waveforms for fault zone head waves damping) ζ = 0.6 similar to the short period seismometer, which are typically used
generated by earthquakes on faults that separate different lithologies, and in to study body waves. The SDF oscillator with the short period and high damping
S waveforms for trapped waves resulting from constructive interference in low filters out the background noise (acts as a narrow-band filter). In this way, the
velocity fault zone layers. The head wave detection and picking is performed by input energy imparted to the SDF oscillator by the seismic signal is dissipated in
a multi-stage algorithm that accounts for basic characteristics (motion polarities, a greater amount by hysteretic response and viscous damping. The damping energy
time difference, sharpness and amplitudes) of head and direct P phases. The yields a smooth dissipation envelope over time. It is zero in the beginning of the
algorithm for automatic identification of trapped waves calculates three features signal, zero or near zero before the P-wave arrival, and builds up rapidly with the P-
representative of trapped waves in time windows following the direct S wave in wave. Since the damping energy function changes considerably at the onset of the
seismograms of near-fault stations. Statistical analysis of these features is used to signal, it can be used as a convenient metric to track and detect the P-wave arrival
identify candidate trapped waves in given stations. The methods are tested on time even in signals with low signal-to-noise ratio. The PWDETECTOR detects
synthetic seismograms and are shown to work well in data recorded along the San P-wave onset time within seconds of processing time using the histogram method.
Andreas fault near Parkfield, the Hayward fault, the Landers rupture zone, the San Its performance is compared with the more established picking techniques using
Jacinto fault and data from Taiwan. short-term-average to long-term-average ratio (STA/LTA), and a picking method
that finds first P-wave arrival using the Akaike Information Criterion. It is shown
that PWDETECTOR is able to detect more accurately the onset of genuine signals
An Improved Algorithm for Automatic Picking of Seismic S-wave Arrivals in against the background noise, and correctly distinguish between whether the first
Continuous Data with Application to the San Jacinto Fault Zone arrival is a P-wave or signal is from a faulty sensor.
WHITE, M., Univeristy of California , La Jolla, CA, mcwhite@ucsd.edu; ROSS,
Z., University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, zross@usc.edu; REYES, A Predict-and-Search Strategy for Picking P and S Phases: Signal-to-Noise
J., University of California , La Jolla, CA, reyes@ucsd.edu; VERNON, F., Ratio Detector Joint with One-dimensional Velocity Model Inversion
University of California , La Jolla, CA, flvernon@ucsd.edu; BEN-ZION, Y., LI, Z., Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, zli354@gatech.edu; PENG,
University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, benzion@usc.edu Z., Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, zpeng@gatech.edu
We present a new algorithm for automatic picking of S body waves in continuous We present a simple method to automatically pick P and S phases at stations in a
data recorded by local networks. The algorithm builds upon the recently region where local earthquake catalog is available. The method predicts an initial
introduced method of Ross & Ben-Zion (2014), and is performed in three stages pick using an initial velocity model, and applies a signal-to-noise ratio detector
to provide robust results. First, polarization analysis is used to remove P-wave function to search the actual phase arrival around the initial one. After that, the
energy a from a seismogram of interest. Next, STA/LTA detectors are run on searched picks are used as input to velocity model inversion, and then the improved
the resulting traces, smoothed over, and processed to obtain a trial S pick. Lastly, velocity models are used to compute theoretical arrivals again. In this way, the
kurtosis detectors are used to lock in on a well defined phase arrival around the entire procedure can be iterated, and phase picking and velocity model inversion
trial pick. The method is shown to work well even when polarization analysis can benefit from each other. We test this method with synthetic data and field
fails, which is often a challenge for automatic S picking. The algorithm is tested data recorded by the Anza seismic network in southern California. It is found that
extensively on continuous data recorded by the complete ANZA Network and the both pick quality and velocity models significantly improve in 1-2 iterations. They
San Jacinto Fault Zone Project in Southern California over a two-month period. become stable rapidly and additional iterations do not bring any additional benefit.
The automatic S picks are compared to manual picks made by ANZA analysts and The technique yields P and S picks and 1D velocity model simultaneously, and
˜80% are found to be within 0.3 sec. This accuracy is studied as a function of signal- avoid unreasonable picks that may occur when applying a detector to waveforms
to-noise ratios and shown to stay overall constant up to ˜70 km. The picks made alone. Therefore, it is particularly suitable for studies in which precise picks and
on the continuous data are used to detect and locate earthquakes after undergoing improved 1D velocity model are needed, such as 3D tomography in a region with
travel time-based event association. Additional results related to systematic dense temporal instrumentation and known earthquake locations.

on 09 October 2018
Revised Pure-Python Phase Picker and 3D Event Associator property. The method and computer code builds heavily on previous seismic
CHEN, C., University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, c.chen@ou.edu; (anelastic) wave propagation codes developed at LLNL (WPP & SW4). The
HOLLAND, A. A., University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, austin. SBP method provides provably accurate and energy stable solutions. Our method
holland@ou.edu uses a node-centered discretization of the seismic wave equations in displacement
formulation and a discretization of the linearized Navier-Stokes equations for
We have previouslypresented amethod for automatic seismic phase arrival detection acoustic wave propagation. The acoustic waves are modeled as small perturbations
and event association appropriate for both real-time monitoring and archived data on top of a given background velocity, pressure and density field, which is assumed
processing. In the updated version, the system still consists of two processing to be in static equilibrium. Our formulation allows for spatially varying wind,
cores: FBpicker and Associator, which are phase picking and associating algorithms ambient pressure, and density gradients. Both the seismic and acoustic media are
respectively. In the revised FBpicker, Kurtosis and Akaike Information Criteria rendered onto a structured, or piecewise structured, grid. Our approach is different
(AIC) were added as alternative characteristic functions used to define phase onset from the conventional staggered grid used in many seismic FD methods. The
times.Weimplementedthesetwopickeralgorithmstoallowuserchooseappropriate node-centered approach allows us to deform the mesh near the free surface to
picking envelope depending on data quality and project constraints. We have also accurately enforce the free surface boundary condition along the actual topography.
modified the 1D local phase Associator to a 3D phase associator using the 3D Mesh generation is automatic allowing for great ease of use to change the
location algorithm of PyLocEQ. The same methodology developed for the 1D domain size, orientation and grid spacing. Absorbing boundary conditions are
case can be extended into the 3D case with minor modifications, which make the implemented using a super-grid approach. Energy flows between the solid and
method more robust and accurate. The 3D Associator can work for both 1D and fluid media by matching the continuity of traction and the normal component
3D velocity models, but the 3D Associator enhances identification. We create a 3D of velocities. We have implemented an MPI-based parallel code (SAW4) for
travel-time table by calculating travel time for each grid of velocity structure model. computing three-dimensional seismoacoustic wave propagation on a Cartesian
Then the 3D Associator determines the hypocenter location and origin-time by domain. The solver has been verified using the method of manufactured solutions,
searching the grid with minimized root mean squared (RMS) travel time misfit. which tests the stability and order of accuracy when the solution is smooth. We use
The grid searching can be a single stage or multi stages depending on the node size this new capability to investigate the effect of height-of-burst and depth-of-burial
and other requirements. The grid-searching algorithm has two stages: course and and atmospheric conditions on acoustic overpressures generated by near-surface
fine searching. The coarse grid searching determines an initial hypocenter location explosions.
by every certain number of grids. The fine grid searching follows up to search every
unsearched grid around initial hypocenter to determine the global RMS minimum,
A Statistical Framework for Inversion of Atmospheric Winds using a Distant
which will be the final hypocenter location.
Continuous Infrasonic Source
BLOM, P. S., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM,
pblom@lanl.gov; ARROWSMITH, S. J., Los Alamos National Laboratory,
Los Alamos, NM, arrows@lanl.gov
Observing Infrasonic Sources from Ground to Space
Poster Session · Thursday · 23 April · Exhibit Hall A Infrasonic energy is known to propagate into the stratosphere and thermosphere
before returning to the ground surface. A number of researchers have shown that
transient infrasound observed at spatially separated locations provide a means
Infrasound Observations From a Seismo-Acoustic Hammer Source at the to estimate characteristics of the winds in the upper atmosphere. A statistical
Nevada National Security Site framework will be presented to demonstrate the application of such methods to
JONES, K. R., Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM USA, a continuous infrasonic source some large distance from a number of observation
krjones@sandia.gov; ABBOTT, R., Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, points. The formulation extends the application of such methods to a number of
NM USA, reabbot@sandia.gov; HAMPSHIRE, J., HK Exploration, Boulder types of infrasonic “noise” such as microbaroms and wind farm signals. It will be
City, NV USA, jhampshire@HHSeismic.com; WHITE, R., National Security shown that the unknown source location and non-local propagation effects can
Technologies, Las Vegas, NV USA, WHITERL@nv.doe.gov; MARCILLO, O., be accounted for by treating the local propagation path’s initial ground intercept
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM USA, omarcillo@lanl.gov; and propagation time as random variables. Further, it will be demonstrated that
WHITAKER, R. W., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM USA, predicted shifts in the cross correlation times between pairs of observing arrays
rww@lanl.gov for typical wind speed variations are sufficiently large to be observable. Possible
complications and challenges to the method related to the overall coherence level
As a part of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) site characterization, Sandia of spatially separated infrasound arrays and non-local propagation effects have also
National Laboratories, in conjunction with HK Exploration, deployed a large (13 been considered.
metric ton) seismo-acoustic hammer source at the Nevada National Security Site
(NNSS) in December 2014. This was a small-scale test of a planned larger, active On the Array Processing of Wind-farm Infrasound Signals
source, seismic survey to be conducted with the seismo-acoustic hammer source in MARCILLO, O., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM,
2015 at the NNSS. During early field-testing of the hammer source we found that, omarcillo@lanl.gov; ARROWSMITH, , Los Alamos National Laboratory,
as the mass hit the ground, a significant downward deflection of the surrounding Los Alamos, NM, arrows@lanl.gov
surface imparted an observable infrasound pressure wave into the atmosphere. We
present results from the early field-testing as well as the results from the small-scale Modern wind farms are known to produce sound in the infrasonic band by
experiment at the NNSS. The early field-testing was conducted in a crane yard the interaction of moving blades with flow gradients. This type of infrasound is
in North Las Vegas, NV with asphalt at the surface while the test at the NNSS continuous and characterized, in the frequency domain, by narrow energy peaks
was done on alluvium. The alluvium has a higher flexure rate than the asphalt at the blade-passing frequency and its harmonics. Array processing of signals
thus allowing better surface deflection and subsequent atmospheric coupling. For with these characteristics requires an approach different than narrow bandwidth
nuclear explosion monitoring, with infrasound, the ground surface is the source of filtering to avoid cycle skipping that leads to aliasing. We study the performance
the atmospheric pressure perturbations and by characterizing the source geology of sensor arrays to characterize wind-farm infrasound type signals using different
we hope to better understand the small-scale waveform characteristics that could filters, i.e., narrow- and broad-band and comb filters. We apply these different
be possible diagnostics for underground nuclear tests. This work was done under filters to signals from two different infrasound arrays (SNL FACT-Site, NM, and
award number DE-AC52-06NA25946. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi- IMS I57US, CA) with large wind farms nearby to compare their responses. We
program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned are also investigating the effects of infrasound from wind farms in the localization
subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy’s capabilities of infrasound arrays.
National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
On the Use of Microbarometers on Balloon Platforms to Probe the Internal
Simulation of Coupled Seismoacoustic Wave Propagation in Three- Structure of Venus
Dimensions with a Summation-by-Parts Finite Difference Method ARROWSMITH, S. J., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,
RODGERS, A. J., LLNL, Livermore, CA, rodgers7@llnl.gov; SJOGREEN, B., NM, arrows@lanl.gov; BOWMAN, D., University of North Carolina,
LLNL, Livermore, CA, sjogreen2@llnl.gov; PETERSSON, N. A., LLNL, Chapel Hill, NC, haksaeng@live.unc.edu; ROLLAND, L., Laboratoire
Livermore, CA, andersp@llnl.gov Geoazur, , lrolland@geoazur.unice.fr; LEES, J., University of North
Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, jonathan.lees@unc.edu; MIMOUN, D., ISAE,
We present a new method for simulating coupled seismoacoustic wave propagation , mimoun.david@gmail.com; HALL, J., Jet Propulsion Laboratory, ; BLOM,
based on time-domain finite differences having the summation-by-parts (SBP) P., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, pblom@lanl.gov;

on 09 October 2018
MARCILLO, O., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, and dense networks. A recent study shows that using all of the conventional data
omarcillo@lanl.gov; WHITAKERr, R., Los Alamos National Laboratory (inland seismic, geodetic, and tsunami gauges) with the best inversion method to
NOLET, G., Laboratoire Geoazur date still fails to predict the correct height of the tsunami before the destructive
wave reach the nearest coasts (< 500 km). In this paper we present theoretical and
Understanding the internal structure of Venus using conventional seismology is modeling investigations of the possibility to incorporate coseismic ionospheric
impractical in the near future due to the high temperatures and pressures on the signals into tsunami early-warning systems within 10 minutes after the earthquake
planetary surface, that prevent any lander to survive long enough to record enough onset. Ionospheric seismology is still a young discipline and we need to develop
events. As the dense atmosphere of Venus ensures efficient seismic-to-acoustic modeling capabilities that go beyond the current state-of-the-art. One of our
coupling, seismic waves propagate upwards producing pressure fluctuations in efforts is an extension to solid Earth-atmosphere modeling of an existing code
the middle atmosphere of Venus. These atmospheric perturbations can therefore currently developed for wave propagation in complex 3D solid Earth. This
be recorded in-situ with a barometer network, deployed on balloons floating numerical tool based on the Spectral Element Method allows us to consider
in the cloud layer near 55 km. This presentation will attempt to quantify the realistic seismic sources and in the future, lateral variations in the solid Earth
magnitude detection limit for Venusquakes for a balloon platform on the basis properties as well as the bathymetry. We will present our latest modeling results,
of expected signal levels, noise levels and plausible quake statistics. Relevant focused on finite sources effects, leading toward the quantitative assessment
innovative terrestrial experience will be reviewed on recording infrasound from using ionospheric signals of the size of an underwater earthquake and associated
earthquakes, measuring hydroacoustic signals on buoyant ocean platforms, and tsunami. We are currently testing the use of Time-Reversal for characterizing
measuring terrestrial infrasound noise levels with balloons where reduction of wind synthetic seismic sources in models consisting of solid crust-upper mantle, ocean
noise has been observed due to sensors being advected by the ambient airflow. and atmosphere-ionosphere.
Radiation Patterns of Persistent Acoustic Sources Investigated with Free-

Flying Microphones
LEES, J. M., University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, Recent Advances in Understanding the Onshore and
jonathan.lees@unc.edu; BOWMAN, D. C., University of North Carolina, Offshore Southern California Fault System
Chapel Hill, NC, daniel.bowman@unc.edu
Poster Session · Thursday · 23 April · Exhibit Hall A
A three element acoustic array was flown in the stratosphere on board a high
altitude balloon over New Mexico and Arizona on August 9, 2014, covering 632
kilometers. Several narrow band acoustic signals were present during most of the An Active Northwest-Trending Normal Fault Zone in Santa Clarita, Transverse
˜5.6 hour long flight. One 17 Hz signal was recorded simultaneously on the ground Ranges, Eastern Ventura Basin, Southern California
infrasound station ANMO as the balloon passed overhead (14 kilometers to the SWANSON, B. J., California Geological Survey, Los Angeles, CA,
north, 34 kilometers above). This signal was coherent between the balloon and brian.swanson@conservation.ca.gov
ANMO during the hour of closest approach and remained coherent between
sensors on the balloon for most of the flight. Despite this, it is absent from Following the 1994 M 6.7 Northridge earthquake, secondary ground displacement
other ground stations within several hundred kilometers of ANMO. The flying was found at a borrow site excavated into Pleistocene alluvium (Pacoima
network also passed close to several wind farms, which are known generators Formation - Qp) on the west side of the Santa Clarita Valley in northern Los
of infrasound. We investigate sources of narrow band signals recorded during Angeles County. Extensive subsurface investigations of the surrounding site by
the flight and model their propagation in an attempt to replicate the observed Allan E. Seward Engineering Geology, Inc. subsequently revealed the displacement
acoustic radiation pattern. We hypothesize that over short (hourly) time spans, had occurred within a previously unmapped system of northwest-trending,
northeast-dipping normal faults. The fault zone is spatially associated with a
balloon-borne infrasound stations emulate high density linear sensor arrays with
respect to stationary acoustic sources. This allows the creation of a one dimensional dissected, linear escarpment that separates Qp from Holocene alluvial deposits of
"slice" of stratospheric infrasound propagation patterns over hundreds of the Santa Clara River floodplain. The zone was informally named the “Kew” fault
kilometers. after the USGS geologist who worked in the area in the early 1900’s. Additional
trenching and CPT investigations in the Holocene alluvium along the southeastern
projection of the scarp lineament revealed additional normal faulting. The faults
Spaced-Based Observations of Seismic-Infrasound-Induced Ionospheric and were observed to cut alluvium with a conventional radiocarbon age of 1060 ±40
Atmospheric Disturbances YBP; several faults extended to the base of man-made fills. Additional subsurface
YANG, Y. -. M., NASA - JPL, Pasadena, CA, oscar.yang@jpl.nasa.gov; investigations at the northwest end of the lineament, south of the Santa Clara
KOMJATHY, A., NASA - JPL, Pasadena, CA, attila.komjathy@jpl.nasa.gov; River, revealed normal displacement of alluvium with a conventional radiocarbon
MENG, X., NASA -JPL, Pasadena, CA, xing.meng@jpl.nasa.gov;
age of 880 ±80 YBP. The nearest previously mapped fault is a concealed trace of
VERKHOGLYADOVA, O., NASA -JPL, Pasadena, CA, the Holser Fault, which also exhibits up-to-the-southwest separation. However, the
Olga.Verkhoglyadova@jpl.nasa.gov; LANGLEY, R. B., University of New Holser Fault shows a reverse sense of movement and extensive investigations of
Brunswick, Fredericton, NB, Canada, lang@unb.ca; MANNUCCI, A. J., NASA this fault northwest of Castaic Junction have not found evidence to demonstrate
-JPL, Pasadena, CA, anthony.j.mannucci@jpl.nasa.gov Holocene activity, which suggests the “Kew” fault is not related to the Holser Fault.
We present the first Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) The seismogenic potential of the “Kew” fault is uncertain. The cause of extensional
observations of the ionosphere-thermosphere perturbations associated with upper faulting at this location within the transpressional Transverse Ranges is speculative,
atmosphere infrasound propagation induced by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. but may be a local response to the bend in the nearby San Gabriel Fault or to tension
Total electron content (TEC) and neutral air density perturbations retrieved above an active fold concealed at depth.
from GRACE measurements have been found to be in good agreement with the
results from a ground-based dense GPS network, infrasound array and seismic Geodesy-Based Estimates of Loading Rates on Faults Beneath the Los
stations. Significant TEC fluctuations and air-density perturbations, up to 6% Angeles Basin With a New, Computationally Efficient Method to Model
and 4% of ambient background values respectively, were observed at the GRACE Dislocations in 3d Heterogeneous Media
orbital altitude 8 minutes after the arrival of the seismic and infrasound waves. ROLLINS, J. C., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
Wavefront arrival times are consistent with the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere jcrollin@caltech.edu; LANDRY, W., California Institute of Technology,
Model (GITM) and infrasound ray-tracing modeling results. This is the first Pasadena, CA, wlandry@caltech.edu; BARBOT, S. D., Earth Observatory of
time, to the best of our knowledge, that natural-hazard-induced ionosphere- Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, sbarbot@ntu.edu.sg;
thermosphere perturbation signatures were measured directly at 450 km altitude. ARGUS, D. F., Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, argus@jpl.nasa.gov;
We envision that space-based neutral and electron density perturbations will AVOUAC, J. P., University of Cambridge, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, U.K.,
be an important contributor in future early warning systems of natural jpha2@cam.ac.uk
hazards.
The north-south compression caused by the Big Bend of the San Andreas fault is
Seismic and Ionospheric Signatures for Monitoring the Initiation of a Tsunami currently localized in the Los Angeles basin [Argus et al 2005] and accommodated
ROLLAND, L. M., Geoazur, Valbonne, France, lrolland@geoazur.unice.fr; by thrust faults such as the Compton, Puente Hills and Sierra Madre faults.
LARMAT, C., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM Constraining elastic strain buildup on these faults with geodetic methods is
paramount to seismic hazard assessment in the Los Angeles area. Previous geodesy-
Forecasting systems failed to predict the magnitude of the 2011 great tsunami in based analyses of this problem using simplified elastic structure models [Argus
Japan due to the difficulty and cost of instrumenting the ocean with high-quality et al 2005, 2012] have yielded estimates of locking depths and loading rates

on 09 October 2018
that disagree significantly with seismicity distribution and geological slip rates. thrust. The westernmost expression of the SMFZ is two aligned 3-5 m high scarps
Estimates of locking depth change by as much as a factor of two when a vertically in the Stage 5e marine terrace surface. A fault exposure at the mouth of Potrero
stratified elastic structure is assumed rather than an elastic halfspace [Argus et Canyon, directly on trend with these scarps, places Pliocene bedrock against the
al 2012], underlining the need to incorporate the 3D elastic structure and fault Pleistocene terrace deposits. The transition to the Hollywood Fault in the north is
geometries of the Los Angeles basin into this analysis. To optimize the process problematic.
of generating elastostatic Green’s functions in complex media, we have developed
Gamra [Landry et al, in press], an adaptive-meshing finite-difference code that
An Updated Evaluation of the Hollywood - Raymond Fault Zones, Los Angeles,
uses the Immersed Interface Method (IIM) of Leveque and Li [1994] to avoid
the difficulties that finite-difference methods often encounter when simulating California
the step functions in displacement involved in dislocation models. We are using HERNANDEZ, J. L., California Geological Survey, Los Angeles, CA,
this method to generate elastostatic Green’s functions for locking on faults in Janis.Hernandez@conservation.ca.gov; OLSON, B. P. E., California Geological
the SCEC Community Fault Model that incorporate the full 3D representation Survey, Los Angeles, CA, Brian.Olson@conservation.ca.gov
of heterogeneous elastic structure provided by the SCEC Community Velocity
The Hollywood and Raymond Faults are part of a >200-km long west-trending
Model. Here we will present preliminary results from this approach as well as
system of oblique, reverse and left-lateral faults that separate the Transverse Ranges
benchmarks of this methodology against other numerical and analytical solutions
geomorphic province of California on the north, from the Peninsular Ranges
for static dislocations in elastic halfspace and vertically layered models.
province on the south. The Hollywood Fault is mapped as a series of north-dipping,
left-lateral oblique faults, geomorphically expressed with steep south-facing scarps,
Identifying Surface Rupture Hazard Along the Northern Margin of the Los and offset drainages and fans that extend eastward from Beverly Hills, through
Angeles Basin Hollywood, to the Atwater area of Los Angeles. The Raymond Fault is expressed
TREIMAN, J. A., California Geological Survey, Los Angeles, CA, Jerry. as a series of left-lateral strike-slip faults with pronounced deflected drainages,
Treiman@conservation.ca.gov; HERNANDEZ, J. L., California Geological pressure ridges, sag ponds, and south-facing scarps that extends from Glassell
Survey, Los Angeles, CA, Janis.Hernandez@conservation.ca.gov; OLSON, Park eastward across the San Gabriel Valley to the Sierra Madre Fault Zone. The
B. P. E., California Geological Survey, Los Angeles, CA, Brian.Olson@ California Geological Survey (CGS) recently completed a re-evaluation of the
conservation.ca.gov Hollywood Fault for the Alquist-Priolo (A-P) program within the Hollywood 7.5’
quadrangle. Recent geologic studies in the West Hollywood and Los Angeles areas
California’s Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning Act (the Act) requires the revealed active fault strands, documenting surface rupture within the past ˜7-10
State Geologist to identify active faults that present a hazard to structures from ka. Assessment of geomorphic features indicative of active faulting, including fan
surface fault rupture. The Act further requires the State Geologist, as chief of the morphology, helped tie these data together and extend the fault zone eastward
California Geological Survey (CGS), to establish zones of required investigation across the Los Angeles River where infrastructure and groundwater studies have
around those identified faults and imposes on local governments the duty to also located the fault. Current efforts are focused on defining the Hollywood fault
regulate development within those zones to mitigate the hazard. The CGS is westward through Beverly Hills to an as-yet poorly understood stepover to the
currently re-assessing the principal faults along the northern margin of the Los Santa Monica Fault, and to the east we are working to understand the transition
Angeles Basin. These faults – Santa Monica, Hollywood, Raymond and Sierra and possible stepover to the Raymond Fault, as suggested by the mapping of Weber
Madre – include elements of strike-slip, thrust and oblique slip displacements. et al. (1980), and Dibblee (1989).
New maps are being prepared for previously un-zoned faults and some existing
maps are being revised. Challenges include recognition of active faults within
an environment that has already been developed for up to 100 years. Fault Paleoseismology of the Southern Clark Strand of the San Jacinto Fault Zone,
assessment utilizes existing geologic mapping as well as interpretation of other data, Southern California
including vintage aerial photography (vertical and oblique), historic topographic BUGA, M. T., Fugro Consultants, Inc., Walnut Creek, CA, m.buga@fugro.com;
surveys, modern LiDAR surveys, geophysical surveys, groundwater studies, oil ROCKWELL, T. K., San Diego State University, San Diego, CA,
and gas exploration data and available geotechnical studies for land development. trockwell@mail.sdsu.edu; OWEN, L. A., University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati,
Additional challenges are presented in defining a surface rupture hazard where OH, Lewis.Owen@uc.edu
the fault lies close beneath the modern surface and is characterized by surface
deformation rather than distinct surface rupture. The Santa Monica Fault presents We present results from a paleoseismic site on the Clark strand of the San
itself partly as a series of en echelon “fold scarps”. The Hollywood Fault is partially Jacinto Fault Zone at Clark Lake, western Salton Trough, southern California.
concealed by thick Holocene fan deposits. The Sierra Madre Fault Zone is seen We excavated trenches across a prominent lineament and surface scarp, exposing
to be evolving with younger basin deformation occurring south of the abrupt a major fault with clear evidence of recurrent activity. The main strand of the
faulted mountain front. Complex fault step-overs also present complications and fault juxtaposes mid-Holocene lake deposits against late Holocene, inter-bedded
are recognized between the Santa Monica and Hollywood faults, the Hollywood lake and alluvial deposits. We identified past surface ruptures by the presence of
and Raymond faults and between several segments of the Sierra Madre Fault Zone. filled fissures, upward fault terminations, folding, angular unconformities, from
which we identify evidence for up to eight surface ruptures that have occurred
Geomorphic Evaluation of the Santa Monica Fault Zone, Northwestern Los in the past 1700 years. The earliest two events have weak age control, but the
Angeles Basin, Southern California past six events, constrained by a combination of C14 and OSL, suggest an average
OLSON, B. P. E., California Geological Survey, Los Angeles, CA, recurrence interval (RI) of 117 ± 55 years and a lapse time of over 210 years. The
brian.olson@conservation.ca.gov RI is likely closer to 148 years, however due to event 2 being constrained entirely
by C14, it is clustered closer to event 3 on account of inheritance, thereby reducing
The California Geological Survey (CGS) is evaluating the Santa Monica Fault the RI. The two most recent events are likely the November 22, 1800 and ca 1550
Zone (SMFZ) for the Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning program. The earthquakes, and correlate to events 2 and 3 at Hog Lake, ˜50 km to the NW,
SMFZ is expressed as a series of en echelon scarps in the Quaternary alluvial fan based on geomorphic offset mapping along the Clark fault. Three earlier events
deposits emanating from the Santa Monica Mountains. It extends easterly from the (3, 4 and 5 at Clark Lake) are constrained to have ruptured between about 1359
coast ˜12 km through urbanized areas of Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, and western and 1164 AD and likely correlate to events 4, 6 and 7 at Hog Lake. Event 5 at Hog
Los Angeles. The SMFZ is generally north-dipping and exhibits left-lateral reverse Lake does not appear to correspond to any events at Clark Lake, suggesting that
oblique motion. Many investigators believe the primary fault is a low-angle blind some of the ruptures in the Hog Lake cluster may correspond to rupture of the
thrust and the surface scarps are associated with sub-vertical hanging wall normal northern part of the zone, similar to what occurred in the 1918 M6.9 earthquake.
faults. Limited geologic studies reveal both active and inactive strands of the SMFZ. These observations along with geomorphic offset observations suggest that the
Geologic studies and geomorphic features suggest the fault is located 3-4 km south entire Clark fault, and possibly the Casa Loma fault, fail together in some large
of the mountain front. Scarp heights typically range from 7-12 m along the fault earthquakes (Mw7.3) whereas the northern Clark fault may fail more frequently in
zone. An exception is the alluvial fan surface just east of Santa Monica Canyon. M6.5-6.9 earthquakes, as occurred in 1899 and 1918.
Here, the fan surface appears to have been broadly uplifted maintaining an overall
slope of about 1.5◦ to the south. The scarps to the east project directly toward this
surface but it is not clear how the fault proceeds to the west. Within this fan surface Strain Partitioning Along the Onshore Palos Verdes Fault Zone: New
are ridges, broader fold scarps, and discontinuous slope breaks stepping en echelon Constraints on the Geometry, Distribution and Kinematics of Quaternary
to the south. At the northeastern edge of this uplifted fan surface is the nearly Deformation
25-m high anomalous Brentwood Knoll (BK) with a low continuous curvilinear GOODMAN, J. T., Fugro Consultants, Inc., Walnut Creek, CA,
scarp and ridgeline extending to the west towards Santa Monica Canyon. Some j.goodman@fugro.com; OSTENAA, D. A., Fugro Consultants, Inc., Lakewood,
researchers believe this represents an anticlinal ridge formed over a shallow blind CO, d.ostenaa@fugro.com; HOGAN, P. J., Fugro Consultants, Inc., Ventura,

on 09 October 2018
CA, phogan@fugro.com; O’CONNELL, D. R. H., Fugro Consultants, Inc., Los Angeles and to the Newport-Inglewood fault zone offshore Newport Beach.
Lakewood, CO, d.oconnell@fugro.com; TURNER, J. P., Fugro Consultants, High-resolution seismic profiles show that the THBF occurs in three distinct
Inc., Lakewood, CO, j.turner@fugro.com segments separated by a right step and a left step and bordered to the northeast
by major anticlines. The Wilmington (Long Beach Unit) and Huntington Beach
High-res 2D seismic reflection data were acquired along the LACSD’s proposed oilfields located within the anticlines provide control on stratigraphy and tectonic
JWPCP Effluent Outfall Tunnel alignment to image the Palos Verdes fault evolution of the fault zone. The fault segments currently dip to the northeast with
zone (PVFZ) in the eastern Palos Verdes Peninsula (PVP). Reflection data were an average dip of about 75-degrees. The predominantly right-slip THBF has a
used with aerial photography and DEMs of early 20th-century topography to reverse component, although normal separation is observed for late Miocene and
refine the location, geometry and kinematics of shallow faulting and folding early Pliocene horizons in the oil fields. A prominent northeast-trending conjugate
along the alignment. In the eastern PVP, the PVFZ is approximately 2,000 m fault intersects the THBF at the releasing stepover south of the Wilmington
wide and consists of three principal strands: the southern, middle and northern Anticline. Restoration of strata adjacent to the THBF indicates that the fault
splays (PFVS, PVFM and PVFN, respectively). Collectively, these faults define dipped southwest, opposite to the current dip, in Repettian time (2-3 Ma), except
a steep, asymmetric flower structure. The dip and style of faulting changes for the segment adjacent to the Wilmington Anticline. Wilmington anticline
progressively to the northeast: PVFS is a near vertical strike-slip fault; PVFM is growth began earlier, in Delmontian time (5-6 Ma), while in most other areas
a right-oblique reverse fault with an 80- to 85-deg southwest dip; and PVFN along the THBF anticlinal growth was post-Repettian. The fault initiated as
is a blind reverse fault with a 75-deg southwest dip. Our preferred estimates of a transtensional strike-slip fault before early Pliocene time and subsequently
right-lateral offset of an abandoned channel of the LA River that crosses the transformed into the transpressional strike-slip system, resulting in basin inversion,
PVFZ are 109 m (PVFS) and 250 m (PVFM). No discernible lateral offset is forming Wilmington and Huntington Beach anticlines. Although the Palos Verdes
observed where the abandoned channel crosses PVFN. The abandoned channel and Newport-Inglewood fault zones appear to accommodate most of the late
is incised into the OIS 5e marine terrace (120 ka). Assuming a ˜5,000-year lag Quaternary to Recent slip, the southern segments of the THUMS-Huntington
between the 5e highstand and subsequent channel incision, our preferred post- Beach fault zone offset Holocene sediment fill within the offshore Santa Ana River
Late-Pleistocene slip rates are 0.91 mm/yr (PVFS) and 2.17 mm/yr (PVFM), paleochannels.
though uncertainties in age and offset amounts permit a range of 2 to 5.6 mm/yr
for the entire PVFZ. Topographic profiles of the OIS 5e abrasion platform
Structure and Evolution of the Eastern Boundary of the California Outer
and thalweg of the abandoned channel show approximately 115 m of uplift
Continental Borderland
across the PVFZ since 120 ka, and >15 m since channel abandonment, ˜35
DE HOOGH, G. L., California State University, Long Beach, CA,
ka. The northern edge of the broad uplift pattern has a sharp hinge above the
gdehoogh@yahoo.com; NICHOLSON, C., University of California, Santa
tipline of PVFN and north of the PVFM; it then tapers off across and south
Barbara, CA, USA, craig.nicholson@ucsb.edu; SORLIEN, C., University
of PVFS. Distribution and patterns of deformation across the PVFZ may reflect
of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA, christopher.sorlien@ucsb.edu;
partitioning of oblique slip in the upper crust due to a change in fault strike at
FRANCIS, R. D., California State University, Long Beach, CA,
the PVP.
Robert.Francis@csulb.edu
New High-Resolution 3D Imagery of Deformation and Fault Architecture Industry seismic data show that the eastern boundary of California Outer
of the Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon Fault in the Inner California Continental Borderland is for most of its length neither a strike-slip or normal
Borderlands fault boundary, as it has been previously characterized. Mapping was carried out
HOLMES, J. J., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, from San Nicolas Island south to the U.S. – Mexican border, and included San
jjholmes@ucsd.edu; DRISCOLL, N. W., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Nicolas, East and West Cortes, and Velero Basins, as well as Cortes and Tanner
La Jolla, CA, ndriscoll@ucsd.edu; SAHAKIAN, V. J., Scripps Institution of Banks. The Nicolas terrane, eastern of two tectonostratigraphic terranes that make
Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, vjsahaki@ucsd.edu; BORMANN, J. M., University up the Outer Borderland (OB), is terminated on the east by an unconformity that
of Nevada, Reno, NV, jaynebormann@gmail.com; KENT, G. M., University cuts down through pre-Miocene forearc basin strata to acoustic basement. The
of Nevada, Reno, NV, gkent@unr.edu; HARDING, A. J., Scripps Institution strata are upturned and eroded along this termination boundary. This pinchout
of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, aharding@ucsd.edu; WESNOUSKY, S. G., defines the eastern OB boundary. The East Santa Cruz Basin fault is found in the
University of Nevada, Reno, NV, wesnousky@unr.edu northern portion of the boundary east of Santa Cruz Basin, and some strands are
found east of San Nicolas Basin, but alignment of these strands suggest they are not
The Inner California Borderlands (ICB) is situated off the coast of southern related to the boundary. Otherwise, faults capable of accommodating large scale
California and northern Baja. The structural and geomorphic characteristics of strike-slip or normal displacement do not occur along the eastern OB boundary.
the area record a middle Oligocene transition from subduction to microplate Included in the strata upturned and eroded along the eastern boundary of the
capture along the California coast. Marine stratigraphic evidence shows large- Nicolas Terrane is a lower Miocene volcanic flow or complex of flows correlated
scale extension and rotation overprinted by modern strike-slip deformation. with alkaline basalt in at least two industry wells, and with lithologically similar
Geodetic and geologic observations reported by others indicate that approximately beach cobbles dredged from Cortes Bank. Mapping of this this regional paleo-
6-8 mm/yr of Pacific-North American relative plate motion is currently surface provides evidence for subsequent vertical motions. These and other data
accommodated by offshore strike-slip faulting in the ICB. The farthest inshore indicate that the OB underwent up to 3-4 km of subsidence, followed by structural
fault system, the Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon (NI/RC) fault complex is a inversion. Major fold structures associated with inversion, up to 50 km wide and
dextral strike-slip system that extends primarily offshore approximately 120 km 200 km long, are indicated by mapping of a ˜3.8 Ma horizon. Mapping of younger
from San Diego to the San Joaquin Hills near Newport Beach, California. The horizons suggest that this folding has continued into Quaternary time.
NI/RC fault system Holocene slip rate is 1.5-2.0 mm/yr to the south and 0.5
mm/yr along its northern extent based on trenching (Lindvall and Rockwell, 1995)
and well data from Freeman, et al (1992). An earthquake rupturing the entire
length of the system could produce an event of Mw 7.0+. In late 2013, we acquired Application of a New Event Detection Algorithm to an Ocean Bottom
the first high-resolution 3D seismic surveys (3.125 m bins) of the NI/RC fault Seismometer Dataset Recorded Offshore Southern California
system offshore of San Onofre as part of the Southern California Regional Fault KOHLER, M. D., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
Mapping project aboard the R/V New Horizon. Analysis of these data volumes kohler@caltech.edu; BUNN, J. J., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena,
provide many new insights and constraints on fault geometry and segmentation of CA, Julian.Bunn@caltech.edu; CHANDY, K. M., California Institute of
the fault system, with the potential of updated slip-rate estimates if suitable targets Technology, Pasadena, CA, mani@cs.caltech.edu; WEERARATNE, D. S.,
are located/dated. California State University, Northridge, CA, dsw@csun. edu
An array of 34 ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) recorded continuous waveform

Structure and Evolution of the THUMS-Huntington Beach Fault, Offshore data off the coast of Southern California for 12 months during 2010-2011
Southern California in the ALBACORE (Asthenospheric and Lithospheric Broadband Architecture
ISHUTOV, S., Iowa State University, Ames, IA, ishutovss@iastate.edu; from the California Offshore Region Experiment) project. An important goal
LEGG, M. R., Legg Geophysical, Huntington Beach, CA, mrlegg@verizon.net; of the project is to produce a more complete offshore seismicity catalog for the
FRANCIS, R. D., California State University Long Beach, Long Beach, CA, California Borderland that can be analyzed for seismicity patterns and active fault
Robert.Francis@csulb.edu locations. A number of active offshore faults are capable of M>6 earthquakes,
and the only permanent Southern California Seismic Network stations that can
The THUMS-Huntington Beach fault (THBF) extends about 35 km to the contribute to ongoing, small-magnitude earthquake detection and location are
southeast across San Pedro Bay from the Palos Verdes fault zone near the Port of those located on the coastline and islands. To obtain the new OBS data-based

on 09 October 2018
catalog, we make use of a newly developed data processing platform based on not deployed uniformly, so the expected bias ratio varies with evaluated epicentral
Python. The platform includes sophisticated earthquake detection algorithms that location. This ratio is calculated in advance and stored into database, called as
are especially suited to noisy, time-varying, waveform data such as from OBSs. The TrigDB, for the discrimination of teleseismic-origin false alarm. We developed
data processing procedure we devised comprises a multi-step analysis that starts a method, so called ‘TrigDB back filling’, updating location with supplementary
with the identification of significant signals above the time-adjusted noise floor association of stations comparing triggered times between sandwiched stations
for each sensor. This is followed by a time-dependent statistical estimate of the which was not associated previously based on predefined criteria such as travel-
likelihood of an earthquake based on the aggregated signals in the array. Finally, for time. Because EEW program assume that all events are local, teleseismic-relevant
periods with elevated event likelihood, an adaptive grid-fitting procedure is used events can give more triggered stations by using back filling of the unassociated
that yields candidate earthquake hypocenters with confidence estimates that best stations than the normal association. As a result of this method we could get more
match the observed sensor signals. We are using our OBS-based catalog to identify reliable location.
spatial relationships between background seismic activity with mapped offshore
faults, and to characterize temporal variations in noise floor with infragravity ElarmS & GlarmS, UC Berkeley’s Earthquake Early Warning Algorithms in
waves, tides, and currents. Improved offshore earthquake locations and recorded CISN ShakeAlert
seismic activity will help define 3D fault geometries. HELLWEG, M., University of California, Berkeley, CA, peggy@
seismo.berkeley.edu; ALLEN, R. M., University of California, Berkeley,
The ALBACORE OBS Array and a 3D Seismic Velocity Model Offshore CA, rallen@berkeley.edu; HENSON, I., University of California, Berkeley,
Southern California CA, henson@seismo.berkeley.edu; JOHANSON, I., University of California,
BOWDEN, D. C., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, Berkeley, CA, ingrid@seismo.berkeley.edu; NEUHAUSER, D., University of
dbowden@caltech.edu; KOHLER, M. D., California Institute of Technology, California, Berkeley, CA, doug@seismo.berkeley.edu; GRAPENTHIN, R.,
Pasadena, CA, kohler@caltech.edu; TSAI, V. C., California Institute of New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM, rg@nmt.edu
Technology, Pasadena, CA, tsai@caltech.edu ElarmS and GlarmS are UC Berkeley’s seismic and geodetic algorithms
The Pacific-North America plate boundary in Southern California extends far west contributing to the demonstration earthquake early warning (EEW) system in
of the coastline, and a 12-month ocean bottom seismometer (OBS) array spanned California, CISN ShakeAlert, operated by the California Integrated Seismic
the western side of the plate boundary to image lithospheric seismic velocities. Network (CISN). ElarmS now has waveform and trigger-association processors
Velocities are modeled through stacked cross correlations of ambient noise data. running at three geographical locations, communicating via Apache ActiveMQ
Twelve months of continuous data were used from 22 OBS stations and ˜30 coastal Messaging. ElarmS successfully alerts on all significant earthquakes (M>=4.5),
and island Southern California Seismic Network stations. Particular attention with magnitude estimates within 0.5 magnitude units. The largest event in the past
has been paid to improving signal-to-noise ratios in the noise correlations with year was the M6.8 event offshore of Eureka (initial ElarmS estimate: M6.3, 7 km
OBS stations by removing the effects of instrument tilt and infragravity waves. from the true epicenter, alert time 25.7 s). The speed of the alert depends mainly
These sources of non-elastic noise are measured in the transfer function between on the density of the seismic network at the epicenter, with alerts generated 4.2 s
horizontal and vertical components for the tilt, and between differential pressure and 5.2 s after the origin time for the M5.1 Le Habra and South Napa quakes in
gauge (DPG) and vertical component for the infragravity oceanic signals. While the LA and SF Bay areas, respectively, where station coverage is densest. GlarmS,
removing these effects has a noticeable effect for observing earthquake events currently in operational testing mode, analyzes positioning time series from real-
in the time series, we find that they have only a small effect on the year-long time GPS processors, such as TrackRT or RTNE. It produces high sample rate
stacks of ambient noise cross correlations. We also examine the effectiveness of displacement time series for 62 GPS stations in the SF Bay area with 3-4 s latency,
other processing techniques including time domain normalization and spectral using a fully triangulated network scheme with 165 basestation-rover pairs. GlarmS
whitening of the signals, and the minimum time required for a stable noise uses the ShakeAlert alerts to trigger its processing. It estimates the static offset
correlation function. Standard time domain and frequency domain methods are each second at each station pair and inverts these parameters for fault slip. GlarmS
used to examine surface wave dispersion curves for group and phase velocity performed well in the South Napa earthquake with an intial solution after 23 s.
between 5 and 50 second periods, and these are simultaneously inverted for 3D South Napa was the first "large" event within the GlarmS grid since it has been
velocity structure. In deep water OBS pairs, clear observations of the first higher running, exposing a bug which delayed the alert by 10 s. We continue to run and
order mode between 5 and 10 seconds significantly improves the inversion. The improve both algorithms by regular after action review, and by running them in
results define the transition in three dimensions from continental lithospheric offline mode with historical datasets. GlarmS will soon be updated to incorporate
structure in the near-shore region to oceanic structure west of the continental processing for multiple fault configurations and to encompass the entire state.
borderland. The velocity model will provide new constraints for determination of
earthquake relocations and rupture styles. ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning in the Pacific Northwest
HARTOG, J. R., University of Washington, Seattle, WA, jrhartog@uw.edu;
KRESS, V. C., University of Washington, Seattle, WA, kress@uw.edu; BODIN,
P., University of Washington, Seattle, WA, bodin@uw.edu; HENSON, I.
Status and Future of Earthquake Early Warning H., University of California, Berkeley, CA, henson@seismo.berkeley.edu;
Poster Session · Thursday · 23 April · Exhibit Hall A NEUHAUSER, D. S., University of California, Berkeley, CA,
doug@seismo.berkeley.edu
The Discrimination Filters to Increase the Reliability of EEW Association on We have implemented the ElarmS-2 algorithm, Decision Module, and User
the Location using Geometric Distribution of Triggered Stations Display of the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system in the Pacific
CHI, H. C., Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Deajeon, Northwest (PNW). This system has been in continuous operation since February
Republic of Korea, chi@kigam.re.kr; PARK, J. H., Korea Institute of Geoscience 2013, providing alerts only to staff of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network
and Mineral Resources, Deajeon, Republic of Korea, jhpark@kigam.re.kr; LIM, (PNSN). The PNW-EEW system is fed by real-time seismic data from stations
I. S., Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Deajeon, Republic in northern California, Oregon, Washington, and southern British Columbia. In
of Korea, limlhj@kigam.re.kr; SEONG, Y. J., Korea Institute of Geoscience and a continuing program to reduce the data latency of our network, we are adding
Mineral Resources, Deajeon, Republic of Korea, yjseong@kigam.re.kr stations and are changing datalogger configurations and telemetry. A select group
of early-adopters will start receiving alerts mid-February 2015. Adaptation of EEW
In operation of Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS), the alerting criteria software for the Cascadia region involved several minor changes to the ElarmS-
are one of the most important parameters in optimizing acceptable warning system. 2 algorithm and configuration and changing the look of the User Display. The
During early stage of testing EEW systems from 2011 to 2013, we adapted ElarmS ElarmS-2 changes were needed to improve alerts for offshore earthquakes that
by UC Berkeley BSL to Korean seismic network and applied very simple criteria occur far from the network of seismic stations. To prevent the spawning of
for event alerting with the combination of the numbers of station and magnitude. fictitious shadow events, we have increased the grid search area used by ElarmS-
As a result of the testing we found out that the real-time test result of Earthquake 2 and the maximum allowable distance between stations that associate into an
Early Warning (EEW) system in Korea showed that all events located within event. We changed the split-event check to identify a duplicate event if its location
seismic network with bigger than magnitude 3.0 were well detected. However, two and origin-time are consistent with P-wave front travelling at 8 km/s, rather than
events located at sea between land and island gave false results with magnitude over simply excluding events based on proximity in time and space. In order to obtain
4.0 related to the teleseismic waves. These teleseismic-relevant false events were magnitudes for offshore events, it was necessary to remove the restriction that
caused by logical co-relation during association procedure and the corresponding stations can only contribute to the event magnitude if they are within a specified
geometric distribution of associated stations is crescent-shaped. Seismic stations are distance of the trial location. Finally, to prevent small events from being flagged as

on 09 October 2018
teleseisms we added a minimum TauPMax cutoff criterion to the teleseism filter. Korea, jhpark@kigam.re.kr; LIM, I. S., Korea Institute of Geoscience and
The new configuration of ElarmS-2 allows better solutions for out-of-network Mineral Resources, Daejeon, South Korea, limlhj@kigam.re.kr; CHI, H. C.,
events without degrading solutions for in-network earthquakes. Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Daejeon, South Korea,
chi@kigam.re.kr
Synthetic Testing of the Pacific Northwest Joint Seismic and Geodetic
From this year, the Korean Meteorological Administration would officially start to
Earthquake Early Warning System
operate the first stage of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS) and provide
CROWELL, B. W., University of Washington, Seattle, WA, crowellb@uw.edu;
early warning information to a limited number of users. While the historical
SCHMIDT, D. A., University of Washington, Seattle, WA, dasc@uw.edu;
records show that there were many damage earthquakes around the Korean
BODIN, P., University of Washington, Seattle, WA, bodin@uw.edu; VIDALE,
Peninsula from the 15th to 18th centuries, the seismicity around the peninsula
J. E., University of Washington, Seattle, WA, seismoguy@mac.com
has been low to moderate over the past few decades. However, some major
The Cascadia subduction zone poses one of the greatest risks for a megaquake earthquakes greater than magnitude 7.0 have ceaselessly occurred in neighboring
in the continental United States and, because of this, the Pacific Northwest regions, Japan and China, and on Mar. 19, 1952, one strong earthquake (Mw
Seismic Network (PNSN) at the University of Washington is building a joint 6.2) had occurred near Pyeongyang, North Korea. These earthquakes occurring
seismic and geodetic earthquake early warning system. Our two-stage approach to far outside the seismic network could not be threatening to directly cause damage
earthquake early warning includes: (1) detection and initial characterization using in South Korea but could be very detrimental to the EEWS. It is noteworthy
strong-motion and broadband data from the PNSN with the ElarmS package, that many of the broadband seismometers in South Korea were saturated by 2011
and (2) geodetic modeling modules using real-time high-rate GPS data from the Tohoku earthquake. Unless these earthquakes are correctly located, it is possible
Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array (PANGA) and combined seismogeodetic (GPS that the EEWS could issue false alarms. Recently, it is shown that the maximum
+ strong-motion) data. Because of Cascadia’s relatively low seismicity rate and likelihood earthquake location method is very robust, even when an outlier is
the paucity of data from plate boundary earthquakes, we have prioritized the included in the small number of P arrivals. In this study, we applied this method to
development of a test system and the creation of several simulated events (M7-9). the EEWS in South Korea. In order to investigate the performance of this location
The test system permits us to: (1) replay segments of actual seismic waveform data method, we chose 22 large events occurred around the peninsula for the reference,
recorded from the PNSN and neighboring networks to represent both earthquakes which includes the 1952 Pyeongyang, the 1975 Haicheng, the 1976 Tangshan, and
and noise conditions, and (2) broadcast synthetic data into the system to simulate the 2011 Tohoku earthquakes. Theoretical arrival times at the seismic network in
signals we anticipate from earthquakes for which we have no actual ground motion South Korea for each event were perturbed by adding random noise. Then, the
recordings. The test system lets us also simulate various error conditions (latent performance of the method was evaluated using the Monte Carlo experiments from
and/or out-of-sequence data, telemetry drop-outs, etc.) and to explore how best the perturbed arrival times and the random choice of seismic stations.
to mitigate them. Here, we report on the performance of the joint early warning
system and the geodetic modeling modules in a simulated real-time mode using A Reality Check Algorithm Based on Waveform Envelopes in Early Warning
simulated 5-Hz displacements for the 2001 Mw 6.8 Nisqually earthquake as KARAKUS, G., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
well as a number of large plausible megathrust events. The results show that the gokcan@caltech.edu; HEATON, T., California Institute of Technology,
geodetic modeling modules are able to properly characterize the simulated events. Pasadena, CA, heaton@caltech.edu
We discuss the limitations with respect to latency, network architecture, and
earthquake location throughout the Pacific Northwest. The objective of the algorithm we propose is to check the validity of the magnitude
and location predictions of earthquakes made by earthquake early warning systems.
Envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement are
Ground Motion Prediction Equations for Absolute Velocity Response Spectra monitored and compared with the predicted ones provided by Cua&Heaton’s
(1-10 s) in Japan for Earthquake Early Warning envelope ground motion prediction equations. The logarithm of the ratio between
DHAKAL, Y. P., NIED, Japan, ydhakal@bosai.go.jp; SUZUKI, W., NIED, observed and predicted envelopes is calculated at every second in real time and
Japan, wsuzuki@bosai.go.jp; KUNUGI, T., NIED, Japan, kunugi@bosai.go.jp; defined as a “test function”. Deviation of the envelopes beyond an acceptable
AOI, S., NIED, Japan, aoi@bosai.go.jp threshold indicates a misfit. In order to rapidly identify a misfit, we use kurtosis
and skewness of a time evolving test function. A Linear Discriminant Analysis,
We constructed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for absolute
trained by real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations, is used to decide if there
velocity response spectra (AVRS) in the period range of 1 to 10 s for an
is an unacceptable level of misfit. A wide range of amplitude scales is used in the
earthquake early warning (EEW) of long-period ground motion intensity in
training process, so this algorithm works for both small and large events.
Japan during moderate-to-large magnitude events (Mw 6.5˜9.1). The AVRS
are obtained by adding ground velocities to the relative velocity response time
histories for individual periods and taking the peak values. Firstly, we obtained Apply Prior Information to Increase Warning Times for Earthquake Earning
a basic prediction model that consists of JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) Warning
displacement magnitude (MjD) and hypocentral distance (R < 800 km) as YIN, L., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, lyin@caltech.edu;
model parameters using the maximum likelihood regression method. The MjD is HEATON, T., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
employed over the commonly used Mw as the former is estimated faster. Next, heaton@caltech.edu
we derived site correction factors at strong-motion sites as the mean value of the
intra-event residuals over the available recordings. Also, the intra-event residuals A significant source of warning latency in the current earthquake early warning
were fitted with the depths of specific deep subsurface layers as the subsurface technology is the period of waveform needed for parameter estimation following
velocity models have been made available for a whole country of Japan. After station triggering. We are proposing a single station algorithm to provide early
correcting for the effects of deeper layers, the residuals were further fitted with alerts promptly after the first trigger without processing any waveform data. This
the AVS30 values to account for effects of shallow surface soils. Finally, we used is achieved by analyzing the observed seismicity in the region as prior information
the results to obtain the JMA long-period ground motion intensities, which have to predict the potential seismic activities. Since earthquake sequences are known
been classified into four levels based on the peak AVRS from a period band of to cluster in time and space, the algorithm uses the temporal clustering property
1.6 to 7.8 s (for details on the JMA long-period ground motion intensity scale, to classify trigger being a true or false event (e.g. true triggers boost during an
visit http://www.data.jma.go.jp/svd/eew/data/ltpgm/, in Japanese, last accessed aftershock sequence), and the spatial clustering property to estimate of the location
January-7 2015). We found that the observed intensities are explained for about of the earthquake. The algorithm updates the earthquake likelihood probability
99% of the recordings within a difference of one intensity level using the GMPEs after each seismic activity using features such as location, magnitude, and time
constructed above. Since many high-rise buildings are located on thick sedimentary of the previous events. Combined with the false alarm probability, the algorithm
basins in Japan, which are susceptible to long-period ground motions even from makes a decision at the moment of station trigger whether the trigger is due to an
distant events, the GMPEs developed in this study are deemed to be useful for an earthquake or not. As a result, warnings can be issued after observations of only
earthquake early warning. one or two stations, which significantly increase the warning times. Finally, for the
earthquake sequence with foreshocks, this algorithm can also successfully extended
to identify mainshocks and further mitigate the damage.
Application of the Maximum Likelihood Earthquake Location Method to Early
Warning System in South Korea
SHEEN, D. H., Chonnam National University, Gwangju, South Korea, Refining Parameter Optimization for the Onsite Earthquake Early Warning
dhsheen@jnu.ac.kr; SEONG, Y. J., Korea Institute of Geoscience and Algorithm
Mineral Resources, Daejeon, South Korea, yjseong@kigam.re.kr; PARK, J. ANDREWS, J. R., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA,
H., Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Daejeon, South jrand@gps.caltech.edu; COCHRAN, E., US Geological Survey, Pasadena,

on 09 October 2018
CA, ecochran@usgs.gov; VERRIER, F., California Institute of Technology, time processing we estimate positions to have latency (< 5s for differential) and
Pasadena, CA, fannyverrier@hotmail.fr; HAUKSSON, E., California Institute precision (15 mm over 10 minutes) that are satisfactory for EEW. We have also
of Technology, Pasadena, CA, hauksson@caltech.edu; FELIZARDO, C., developed a C version of the BEFORES algorithm (Minson et al., 2014) which
California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, claude@gps.caltech.edu; uses Bayesian analysis to determine the best-fitting coseismic fault orientation and
BOESE, M., ETH, Zurich, Switzerland, maren.boese@erdw.ethz.ch finite fault slip distribution in real-time. It has been extensively optimized for
speed and is being coupled to the Earthworm data acquisition system so we can
A particular challenge for earthquake early warning in the US is the diversity of test the algorithm with GPS data played back in a realistic EEW environment.
tectonic settings potentially hosting damaging earthquakes. The ShakeAlert, the Currently, we are focusing on: 1) Reading/writing real-time data streams in
earthquake early warning system, is currently being developed and implemented GeoJSON format, 2) writing a C++ wrapper to link BEFORES to Earthworm
for the West Coast of the US. It will ultimately need to be effective for large and the EEW architecture, 3) receiving real-time earthquake locations from seismic
Cascadia subduction zone and San Andreas earthquakes as well as a spectrum of EEW algorithms, and 4) streaming real-time data via Earthworm ring buffers.
strike-slip, thrust and normal events on the many smaller faults across the West Completion of these tasks plus additional tests using waveforms of simulated
Coast. The Onsite algorithm, one of three EEW algorithms currently implemented earthquakes superimposed on real observational noise will allow us to implement
in ShakeAlert, calculates the ground-motion period parameter (Tauc) and peak the BEFORES algorithm in real-time in the West Coast.
initial displacement parameter (Pd) to estimate the magnitude and expected
ground shaking of an ongoing earthquake. It is the only algorithm that was
designed for analysis of data from a single station, aiming for the largest possible Analysis of Spectral Characteristics of Pre-Earthquake Ambient Seismic
warning time, necessitating that results from individual stations be as reliable Noise for Advance Warning
and accurate as possible. A number of previous studies have been carried out to GUPTA, I. N., Array Information Technology, Greenbelt, MD USA,
determine optimum parameters, relationships, and values in this type of single- igupta@verizon.net; SCHAFF, D. P., Columbia University, Palisades,
station algorithm. The challenge for these studies was data availability, which NY, dschaff@ldeo,columbia.edu; RICHARDS, P. G., Columbia University,
usually had restricted test data for particular magnitude ranges, time periods or Palisades, NY, Richards@ldeo,columbia.edu; RASTOGI, B. K., Institute of
geographic locations. We aim to extend this prior research to include a wider Seismological Research, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India, brastogi@yahoo.com;
range of depths, faulting styles and magnitudes with application to the West Coast. MAHESH, P., Institute of Seismological Research, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India,
We use a large suite of earthquake waveforms and continuous time-series data pmahesh.isr@gmail.com; MONDAL, P., Institute of Seismological Research,
to examine parameter optimization for robust ground shaking determination and Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India, prateekmondal@hotmail.com; WAGNER, R. A.,
algorithm performance, including false alarm and missed trigger metrics. Array Information Technology, Greenbelt, MD, rwag56@gmail.com
A significant fraction of the ambient short-period seismic noise at a given site

CISN ShakeAlert: UserDisplay for Providing Earthquake Alerts to End-Users may be attributed to P, S, Rayleigh and Love waves with spectral characteristics
FELIZARDO, C., California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, strongly dependent on the geological structure underlying the recording station.
claude@gps.caltech.edu; VINCI, M., California Institute of Technology, We analyzed pre-earthquake ambient seismic noise from four earthquakes located
Pasadena, CA, mvinci@gps.caltech.edu; BOESE, M., ETH, Zurich, Switzerland, in four different regions: Nevada (one recording station), California (4 stations),
maren.boese@erdw.ethz.ch; ANDREWS, J., California Institute of Technology, Alaska (one station) and Kachchh, India (4 stations). The spectra of several hours’
Pasadena, CA, jrand@gps.caltech.edu; HAUKSSON, E., California Institute of long segments of noise for three different periods of time: (1) one year before,
Technology, Pasadena, CA, hauksson@caltech.edu; HEATON, T., California to reduce the influence of seasonal variation, (2) one month before and (3) just
Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, heaton@caltech.edu before, ending a few sec before the first P from the earthquake, were compared. It
seems that large earthquakes are associated with intense and extremely complicated
Providing earthquake alerts (EA) requires fast and robust estimates of earthquake pre-event activity mostly within the hypocentral region. Our analysis shows that
source and predictions of ground motion parameters shortly after the initiation of this pre-earthquake activity significantly impacts the prevailing ambient seismic
an earthquake. Over the past six years the California Integrated Seismic Network noise and leads to several measurable changes in the spectral characteristics of
(CISN) partners have tested the real-time performance of three algorithms for low frequency noise as observed on the three orthogonal components of ground
providing EA in California. CISN partners have also operated an end-to-end motion. The most important parameters indicating premonitory changes have
prototype processing thread, called CISN ShakeAlert, which provides a continuum been observed to be temporal variations in (1) spectral peak frequencies and
of earthquake alert information. We have developed an application (ShakeAlert their associated amplitudes on each component of ground motion and (2) inter-
UserDisplay) written in Java to display alerts to a group of collaborating test users. component amplitude ratios. Moreover, the above two relationships generally
In turn, these test users have assisted in developing procedures and formats that show significantly larger variability during a segment of time just before the
could be used to improve delivery of information via the ShakeAlert system. The earthquake. Our results indicate that observation of significant changes in one or
application runs on a user computer showing the user location, estimated location more of these parameters simultaneously at several recording stations can provide
of the earthquake, migration of the P- and S-wave fronts, estimated magnitude, a advance warning of several hours or better before a large earthquake occurs.
reliability parameter, as well as the predicted level of intensity of shaking at the
user site and time until this shaking is expected to arrive. It also sounds an audible
alarm. We present the current demonstration system and considerations for future Exploring the Readiness for Earthquake Early Warning at Seismic Networks
development. Across Europe
BEHR, Y., Swiss Seismological Service, Zurich, Switzerland, behr@sed.ethz.ch;
CAUZZI, C., Swiss Seismological Service„ Zurich, Switzerland, carlo.
Implementation of GNSS-Constrained Real-Time Finite Fault Modeling for cauzzi@sed.ethz.ch; CLINTON, J. F., Swiss Seismological Service,
Improved Earthquake Early Warning: Current Activities At USGS, Menlo Park Zurich, Switzerland, jclinton@sed.ethz.ch; JONSDOTTIR, K., Icelandic
SMITH, D. E., USGS, Earthquake Science Center, Menlo Park, CA, Meteorological Office, Reykjavik, Iceland, kristin.jonsdottir@vedur.is;
deborahsmith@usgs.gov; LANGBEIN, J. O., USGS, Earthquake Science Center, COMOGLU, M., Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research
Menlo Park, CA, langbein@usgs.gov; MURRAY, J. R., USGS, Earthquake Institute, Istanbul, Turkey, comoglu@gmail.com; ERLENDSSON, P.,
Science Center, Menlo Park, CA, jrmurray@usgs.gov; GUILLEMOT, C., USGS, Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavik, Iceland, palmi@vedur.is;
Earthquake Science Center, Menlo Park, CA, cguillemot@usgs.gov; MINSON, MARMUREANU, A., National Institute for Earth Physics, Bucharest,
S. E., USGS, Earthquake Science Center, Menlo Park, CA, sminson@usgs.gov Romania, marmura@infp.ro; PARASKEVOPOULOS, P., University of Patras
Seismological Laboratory, Patras, Greece, paris@geology.upatras.gr; PINAR,
Real-time GPS data in Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) algorithms provide A. , Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Istanbul, Turkey,
a direct measure of displacement for larger events, Mw = 6, that has sufficient pinara@boun.edu.tr; SALICHON, J., GeoNet, GNS Science, Avalon, New
precision and stays on scale. While EEW algorithms based on seismic data alone Zealand, J.Salichon@gns.cri.nz; SOKOS, E., University of Patras Seismological
are robust estimators for Mw < 6 events, they can significantly underestimate Laboratory, Patras, Greece, esokos@upatras.gr
the magnitudes of the larger events; therefore, incorporating real-time GPS data
should significantly increase the accuracy in estimating magnitude and rupture While earthquake early warning (EEW) efforts in Europe are under way, EEW
extent for larger events. The USGS Earthquake Science Center in Menlo Park systems across Europe are, with few exceptions, still in their infancy. With the
currently obtains real-time data from approximately 100 GNSS stations in latest EU funded initiative on real-time risk mitigation (Strategies and Tools
Northern California. These stations, which span the San Andreas fault system for Real Time Earthquake Risk Reduction - REAKT) just finished we will
from the Mendocino Triple Junction to San Juan Bautista, are operated by USGS- draw conclusions from several feasibility studies on EEW within this project
Menlo Park, UC Berkeley, and UNAVCO. We have developed software tools using the Virtual Seismologist (VS) algorithm. We will describe the strengths
for monitoring and troubleshooting data acquisition and quality. Through real- and outstanding challenges of the latest real-time implementation of VS within

on 09 October 2018
the SeisComP3 monitoring software suite (VS(SC3)) and put special focus on to improve liability and performance of the existing EEWS. However; challenges
the EEW readiness of the seismic networks in Switzerland, Romania, Iceland, are significant such as goodness and robustness of data. In this study, we try
Greece, Turkey, and New Zealand which are currently running VS(SC3) in to built a home type complete seismic device, QuickAlerT (QAT), that is part
real-time. Using the method described by Behr et al. [2015], we will further of wireless sensor network. QATs share recorded ground motion with other
show the possible alert times in these networks for optimally configured devices in a Sensor-Cloud System. QAT have three components; MEMS sensor,
EEW systems running on a seismic network with modern dataloggers and fast microcontroller, and WiFi unit. Sensor is an ultra low-power high performance
telemetry. Since November 2014 VS(SC3) has also been tested in southern three axes linear accelerometer with 16-bit resolution digital output. A 80MHz
California in real-time. We will show first results of its real-time performance microcontroller collects data from sensor and sends one second peak absolute
and the potential of using SeisComP3 as the platform for new EEW algorithm amplitude of three component acceleration to cloud via an access point with built
developments. Our results provide an overview of the EEW systems that allows in IEEE 802.11 WiFi module. Waveforms from QATs are sent to Sensor-Cloud
identification of the weakest links in the alert chain and possibly plan network system. Sensor-Cloud collects and processes data in real-time from several QATs
and algorithmic improvements to head towards an optimal and effective EEW and shares information in the cloud with users. There are two main modules
system in each area. This is of particular importance regarding the increased that process the waveforms in the cloud. Earthquake module associates intensity
interest of potential end-users of EEW alerts and to make future EEW efforts most information from the QATs and determines the epicentral intensity in the cloud.
efficient. Waveform module allows users to check waveforms and any activity at the QATs.
If cloud detects an earthquake, system broadcasts notification to the QATs such
Sensor-Cloud based Low Cost Wireless Seismic Sensor for Earthquake Early as source information, expected intensity and arrival time of S wave. Once a
Warning System, QuickAlerT QAT receives a warning, it has two outputs; visual and audial. Ten leds with
KUYUK, R. T., Tubitak-Bilgem, Kocaeli, Turkey, recep.kuyuk@tubitak.gov.tr; different colors show the intensity of earthquake. Also, an alarm sound notifies
KUYUK, H. S., Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Engineering Institute, users for incoming strong motion. We tested QAT on a uni-directional shake table
Istanbul, Turkey, serdarkuyuk@gmail.com with different excitations. Comparison of data were made between QAT and a
reference high quality Capacitive Force Micromachined (32-bit high resolution)
There is a growing trend in developing low-cost sensors for earthquake early strong motion sensor. The validity of using QAT was determined with level of
warning system (EEWS). Seismologists alternatively test low-cost sensor in order instrumental self-noise and frequency response.

on 09 October 2018
Index of Authors
Aagaard, B. T., 597 Apel, E., 623, 625 Beale, J. A., 598 Bradley, C. R., 606, 728 Cecilio Morales, C., 669
Abatchev, Z., 678 Arce, A., 712 Beale, J. N., 610 Bradley, C., 613 Cedillos, V., 664
Abazarsa, F., 629 Archuleta, R., 709 Beaudoin, B., 628 Bradley, K., 609 Celebi, E., 631
Abbott, R. E., 678 Archuleta, R. J., 634, 654 Beauval, C., 588 Bramanti, C., 627 Celebi, M., 632
Abbott, R., 732 Arellano, D., 713 Becker, T. W., 707 Branum, D. M., 660 Cesca, S., 688
Abd, N., 609, 628 Argus, D. F., 700, 733 Beeler, N. M., 658 Braud, A., 601 Chadwell, C. D., 719
Abdulnaby, W., 609, 626 Arrowsmith, J. R., 596, 688 Begnaud, M. L., 640, 652, 676, Braun, T., 667, 688, 729 Chael, E. P., 679
Abercrombie, R. E., 710 Arrowsmith, S. J., 607, 612, 679 Braunmiller, J., 682 Chai, C., 639
Abrahamson, A. N., 652 732, 732 Behr, Y., 669, 696, 738 Bray, J. D., 703, 721 Chaljub, E., 591, 593, 619, 703
Abrahamson, N., 615, 625, Asencio, 602 Bela, J., 668 Brenguier, F., 634 Chan, C. H., 624
661 Asimaki, D., 592, 704 Bellier, O., 716 Briggs, R. W., 650, 671, 672 Chan, J. H., 603
Abrahamson, N. A., 652, 654, Askan, A., 663, 686 Bennett, S. E. K., 648, 671 Brillon, C., 608 Chandra, J., 641
669, 704, 705 Aso, N., 658 Bennington, N. L., 642 Brooks, B., 596, 631, 719 Chandy, K. M., 735
Abramsonward, H., 624, 697, Astafyeva, E., 693 Bent, A. L., 616 Brooks, B. A., 595, 596 Chandy, M., 638
698, 720 Asten, M. W., 608 Benz, H., 691 Brooks, E., 588, 589 Chang, C. Y., 644
Acarel, D., 641, 679 Aster, R. C., 683, 724 Benz, H. M., 711, 724 Brosnan, D. M., 664 Chapman, M. C., 598, 610
Acharya, P., 626, 627 Astill, S., 665 Ben-Zion, Y., 594 Brossy, C., 636 Chapman, M., 601, 653
Adames, R., 602 Astiz, L., 708 Bergkamp, B. J., 698, 720 Brothers, D. S., 698, 701 Chen, C., 732
Adams, M., 709 Astroza, R., 629 Bergman, E., 676 Brothers, D., 720 Chen, K. C., 601
Addo, K, 590 Atkinson, G. M., 725 Bernsen, S. P., 628, 682 Brown, J. R., 684 Chen, P., 639
Aderhold, K., 710 Ausbrooks, S. M., 725 Beroza, G. C., 639, 655, 656, Bruhat, L., 707 Chen, Q., 619, 706
Admire, A., 666 Avouac, J. P., 690, 733 692 Brumbaugh, D., 611 Chen, Q. F., 613
Adnan, A. B., 621 Ayca, A., 657 Beroza, G., 723 Brune, J. N., 617 Chen, R., 647, 660
Afshari, K., 705 Ayele, M., 593 Bertrand, E., 705, 716 Brune, R. J., 617 Chen, S., 626
Agcakoca, E., 630 Ayoub, F., 651 Beucler, E., 642 Bruton, C. P., 627 Chen, X. L., 611
Agram, P., 596, 633, 700 Bhadha, R., 626 Bryngelson, J., 665 Chen, X., 619, 724
Aguirre, A., 609 Babuska, I., 711 Bhaskaran, A., 626 Buga, M. T., 734 Chen, Z., 667
Aguirre, J., 633 Bachmann, C. E., 726 Biasi, G. P., 589, 624 Buga, M., 719 Chi, H. C., 736, 737
Ahern, T., 627 Bachura, M., 680 Bielak, J., 591 Bulut, F., 679 Chiang, A., 612
Akinci, A., 617, 624 Bahandari, P., 627 Bierwirth, M., 627 Bunn, J., 638 Chiang, H. W., 656
Aktas, M., 630, 631, 696 Bahavar, M., 627 Bilal, M., 686 Bunn, J. J., 735 Chiu, J. M., 601
Akyol, N., 662 Bahng, B., 664 Bilek, S. L., 691, 731 Burgette, R., 687 Chlaib, H., 609, 628
Al Noman, M. N., 660 Bai, K., 711 Bilek, S., 628 Bürgmann, R., 596 Chock, G. Y. K., 657
Alamri, A., 682 Baig, A., 689 Bilham, R., 647, 722 Burgmann, R., 673, 710 Chong, J., 677
Alatik, L., 599 Baig, A. M., 694, 724, 730 Bindi, D., 600, 653, 696 Burgos, G., 621 Chopra, A. K., 702
Allam, A. A., 722 Bailly, T., 716 Blair, J. L., 634 Burjanek, J., 715 Chounet, A., 618
Allam, A., 651 Baise, L. G., 715, 718, 727 Blom, P. S., 612, 732 Busby, R. W., 614 Chowdhury, F., 626, 627
Allen, R. M., 596, 696, 710, 736 Baker, J. W., 692 Blom, P., 732 Bwarie, J. T., 664 Choy, G. L., 725
Allen, R., 697 Baker, L., 604 Bobra, P., 605 Choy, G., 690
Allen, T. I., 608, 618 Balan, S. F., 675 Bock, Y., 620, 629, 697, 710, Caballero, E., 659 Christensen, U., 627, 642
Al-Mohaned, R., 609 Ballard, S., 640, 652, 679 722 Cabas, A., 705 Christophersen, A., 588, 589
Al-Shukri, H., 628 Baltay, A. S., 600, 652, 662 Bockholt, B. M., 638 Caciagli, M., 688 Chu, R., 676
Altamura, R. J., 599, 616 Banderdt, W. B., 642 Bodin, P., 696, 736, 737 Cakti, E., 620 Chung, J., 610
Altheyab, A., 637 Banerdt, W. B., 627 Boese, M., 738, 738 Calais, E., 598, 663 Cienfuegos, R., 665
Al-Zubairi, Z., 609 Bannister, S., 669 Bohnhoff, M., 641, 674, 679, Calcutt, S., 627 Cioflan, C. O., 668, 675
Amato, A., 667 Bao, F., 676 691 Callaghan, S., 663 Cipar, J., 615
Amelung, F., 678 Barall, M., 666 Boisson, D., 716 Calvet, M., 653, 662 Cipciar, A., 619
Amidon, W., 672 Barberopoulou, A., 664 Boldini, D., 705 Cambiotti, G., 682 Clayton, R., 594, 603, 638, 697
Aminzadeh, F., 729 Barbot, S., 632, 710 Bolton, M. K., 668 Cambpell, N. M., 664 Clayton, R. W., 626, 676, 677
Ammon, C. J., 639, 680 Barbot, S. D., 733 Bonilla, L. F., 641, 705 Campbell, K. W., 599, 654, Clinton, J., 642, 696
Ampuero, J. P., 592, 594, 658, Barbour, A. J., 728 Bonini, M., 626 668, 671, 704 Clinton, J. F., 738
665, 691, 709, 710, 727 Bard, P. Y., 661, 703, 704, 705, Bormann, J. M., 700, 701, 735 Campillo, M., 636, 637 Coblentz, D., 612
Anastasopoulos, I., 702 706, 714, 717 Borrero, J. C., 664 Capdeville, Y., 621 Cocco, M., 667
Anderson, D. N., 607, 612, Barker, L., 638 Borrero, J., 657 Caress, D. W., 698, 701 Cochran, E. S., 646, 725
614, 640 Barklage, M., 594, 713 Boru, E., 630 Carlos Lozano, C., 669 Cochran, E., 638, 691, 737
Anderson, J. G., 624, 651, 663, Barnhart, W. D., 711 Bosman, K., 724 Carlos, J., 669 Coisson, P., 693
714 Barnhart, W., 633 Bostock, M. G., 684 Carmichael, J. D., 607 Colombelli, S., 695, 696
Anderson, J. K., 687 Barosh, P. J., 645 Bott, J., 692, 726 Carpenter, P., 628 Comoglu, M., 738
Anderson, K., 698 Barr, M. A., 672 Bourguignon, S., 669 Carrillo-Lucia, M. A., 723 Conrad, J. E., 701
Andrews, J., 626, 738 Barrell, D., 588 Bouskova, A., 677 Caruso, A., 695 Conte, J. P., 629
Andrews, J. R., 737 Barrett, S. A., 656 Bowden, D. C., 665, 717, 736 Carver, G., 686 Cooke, M. L., 648, 706
Angell, M., 699, 719 Batchelor, C. E., 681 Bowman, D., 732 Castillo, C. M., 701 Córdoba-Montiel, F., 595
Angster, S., 618 Batllo, J., 688 Bowman, D. C., 606, 693, 733 Castro, R. R., 661 Cornou, C., 704, 706, 712,
Anthony, R. E., 683 Baturan, D., 681, 730 Boxberger, T., 704 Catchings, R. D., 603, 706 716, 717
Antoun, T. H., 606, 613 Bauer, R., 610 Boyd, O. S., 597, 690, 725, 728 Cattania, C., 588 Corti, G., 626
Aochi, H., 617, 684 Baumann, C., 601 Boyd, O., 610 Causse, M., 618, 713 Cotton, F., 600, 652, 661, 705,
Aoi, S., 737 Bausch, D., 647 Bozorgnia, Y., 654, 671 Cauzzi, C., 601, 690, 696, 715, 714
Aoki, S., 695 Bayless, J. R., 619 Bradley, B. A., 641 738 Courboulex, F., 618, 713, 716

on 09 October 2018
Cowgill, E. S., 672 Djadjadihardja, Y., 687 Ferland, P., 693 Glennie, C. L., 595, 596 Hananto, N. D., 609
Cox, B. R., 641, 706, 715 Dmitrieva, K., 598 Ferre, K. S., 635 Glinsky, N., 620 Haney, M. M., 641
Craig, M., 633 Dober, M., 692 Ferris, A., 677 Glover, C. O., 686 Haney, M., 642
Craig, M. S., 609 Dodge, D. A., 607, 626 Festa, G., 695 Goebel, T. H. W., 672, 706 Hanks, T. C., 600, 662
Craig, T. J., 598 Dodge, D., 607 Fialko, Y., 700, 722 Gok, R., 609, 610, 626, 628 Hannina, S., 609
Cramer, C. H., 614, 660, 690, Dolan, J. F., 608, 650, 651 Field, E. H., 589, 646 Gold, R. D., 648, 650, 671, 672 Hannon, A., 645
713 Donnellan, A., 603, 621, 633, Fielding, E., 648, 690 Goldberg, D. E., 620, 629, 697 Hansen, S., 676
Cramer, C., 601, 610 636, 667, 690 Fielding, E. J., 596, 633, 673 Goldfinger, C., 687 Hansen, S. M., 594
Crempien, J. G. F., 654 Donovan, J., 674 Fischer, T., 680, 694 Goldman, M. R., 603, 706 Hanson, K., 698, 720
Criley, C. J., 603 Doser, D. I., 686 Fisk, M. D., 652 Golombek, M., 642 Hao, T. Y., 613
Crippen, A. G., 677 Dougherty, S. L., 676 Fitzenz, D. D., 590, 624, 644, Goltz, J. D., 656 Harben, P., 612
Crone, A., 672 Douilly, R., 663 660 González, M., 609 Hardebeck, J. L., 718
Cronin, Meagan, A., 677 Dreger, D. S., 597, 612, 702, Fleischman, R., 629 Gonzalez, T., 655 Harder, S. H., 643
Crosby, C., 596 727, 728 Fletcher, 604 González-Carrasco, J., 665 Harding, A. J., 700, 701, 735
Crowell, B. W., 620, 697, 737 Drellack, S. L., 611 Fletcher, J., 673 Gonzalo Antonio Fernandez Hardy, A. C., 598
Crowley, J. W., 730 Dresen, G., 641, 691, 707 Florez, M. A., 595 Marañon, G., 669 Harmandar, E., 620
Crummey, J., 626 Dricker, I. G., 728 Floyd, M., 631 Gonzalo Montalva, G., 669 Harmon, J., 704
Cruz-Atienza, V. M., 592, 659 Drilleau, M., 642, 693 Floyd, M. A., 596 Goodman, J., 699, 720 Hart, J. D., 635
Cui, J. W., 611 Driscoll, N. W., 700, 701, 735 Foerster, E., 705 Goodman, J. T., 734 Harte, D., 589
Cui, Y., 592 Dufour, F., 712 Ford, S. R., 607, 612 Gooodman, J., 699 Hartline, C., 691
Cultrera, G., 667, 703, 704 Dujardin, A., 713 Fort Irwin, 599 Gorgun, B., 712 Hartog, J. R., 696, 736
Cushing, E. M., 716 Dunham, E. M., 707 Foti, S., 705, 706 Gorgun, E., 709, 712 Hartse, H. E., 614
Duputel, Z., 648 Foundotos, L., 661 Goulet, C., 615, 669 Hartzell, S., 654, 690
Dahm, T., 729 Duron, Z., 651 Foxall, W., 726 Goulet, C. A., 619, 705 Hartzell, S. H., 618
Dalguer, L., 601 Duross, C. B., 644, 648, 671 Francis, R. D., 701, 735 Goulet, J. A., 629 Hashash, Y. M. A., 704
Daly, P., 656 Duru, K., 592 Franco, G., 643 Graettinger, A. H., 606 Hashash, Y., 705
D’Amico, V., 590 Dussouillez, P., 716 Frankel, A. D., 592, 608 Graizer, V., 669, 670 Hashemi, A., 652
Dang, J., 630 Dwyer, J. J., 613 Frankel, A., 618 Granat, R. A., 667 Hatakeyama, N., 605
Darold, A. P., 690 Frassetto, A. M., 614 Grange, S., 712 Hatch, R. L., 687
Darold, P., 726 Eaton, D. W., 727 Frassetto, A., 627 Grant Ludwig, L., 603, 649 Hatem, A. E., 651, 706
Daubar, I., 642 Ebel, J. E., 599, 715, 724 Freed, A., 673 Grapenthin, R., 596, 736 Hauk, T. F., 607
Davidsen, J., 727 Ebinger, C., 642 Freed, A. M., 663 Graves, C. R., 645 Hauk, T., 607
Davis, P., 678 Ebrahimian, H., 629 Freeman, S. T., 602 Graves, R., 619, 632 Haukssom, E., 672
Davis, P. M., 677 Ebrahimian, M., 604, 629, 630 Freymueller, J. T., 657 Graves, R. W., 617, 634, 673, Hauksson, E., 603, 626, 691,
Dawson, T. E., 595, 596, 633, Edwards, B., 661, 675, 690, Freymueller, J., 642 690, 712 695, 738
649 715 Friberg, P. A., 728 Graves, W. R., 645 Hawkins, A. K., 723
Dawson, T., 633 Eguchi, R. T., 667 Fry, B., 589 Gray, B., 698 Hayashi, K., 609, 633
Day, K. E., 611 Elbanna, A. E., 617, 708 Fu, Y., 632, 657 Graymer, R. W., 718 Hayashi, Y., 630
Day, S. M., 592, 619, 664 Elliott, J. R., 596 Funning, G., 631 Greene, G., 720 Hayes, G. P., 618, 711
Day, S., 722 Ellsworth, W. L., 646, 691, Funning, G. J., 596 Greene, H. G., 697, 698, 718, He, R., 639
De Hoogh, G. L., 735 692, 694, 712, 727 719, 720 Hearn, T., 653
De Lamare, R. G., 602 Ellsworth, W., 692 Galis, M., 591, 592, 727 Greig, D. W., 730 Hearne, M., 670
De Martin, F., 591 Emolo, A., 696 Gallegos, A. C., 653 Greig, W., 681 Heaton, T., 603, 638, 737,
Dechamp, A., 706, 716 Encarnacao, A. V., 679 Gallipoli, M. R., 631 Grenader, J. R., 608, 651 738
Dehant, V., 642 Eneva, M., 728 Gallovic, F., 709, 711 Gribler, G., 603 Heaton, T. H., 645, 695
Deierlein, G. G., 664 English, J., 629 Galvin, J., 609 Gueguen, P., 605, 631 Hecker, S., 595, 608
Delavaud, E., 620, 716 Erdik, M., 696 Garcia, R., 642, 693 Guéguen, P., 641 Heien, E. M., 621, 636
Delbridge, B., 684 Erdik, M. O., 696 Garnero, E. J., 685 Guilderson, T., 649 Hellweg, M., 596, 736
Deleuze, M., 627 Ericksen, T. L., 596 Garofalo, F., 706 Guillemot, C., 738 Helmberger, D. V., 612, 632,
Delong, S., 596 Ericksen, T., 596, 719 Gasparini, P., 696 Guillot, L., 621 690, 712
Delong, S. B., 595, 608, 632 Erlendsson, P., 738 Gavin, D., 649 Guiwits, S., 626 Helmberger, D., 634, 711
Delorey, A. A., 685 Ervin, J., 627 Gazetas, G., 702, 705 Gulerce, Z., 654 Helmburger, D., 709
Demartin, F., 705 Eskijian, M., 657 Geist, E. L., 664, 666 Guo, H., 615 Helmstetter, A., 588
Demartin, M., 667 Esposito, S., 696 Gelis, C., 620, 716 Gupta, I. N., 738 Henson, I. H., 736
Dengler, L. A., 666 Estela Minaya, E., 669 Geng, J., 620, 629, 697, 710 Gupta, N., 668 Henson, I., 596, 736
Denise, R., 627 Euler, G. G., 612 Gerstenberger, M. C., 587, Gupta, V. K., 621 Hernandez, B., 661, 662
Denolle, M., 639 Evans, E. L., 650, 728 589, 622 Guy, R., 603, 638 Hernandez, J. L., 734
Depolo, C. M., 650, 672 Eymold, W. K., 639 Gerstenberger, M., 669 Gvirtzman, Z., 620 Hernandez, S., 683
Derras, B., 600, 714 Ezzedine, S. M., 606, 613 Gerstoft, P., 594, 637 Gwiazda, R., 698 Herrero, A., 624
Deschamps, A., 716 Ghorbani, P., 682 Herrero, A. F., 617
Deshon, H. R., 685 Fadugba, O. I., 724 Ghosh, A., 610, 639, 658, 683, Haase, J. S., 629, 697 Herrmann, R. B., 615
Desjarlais, I. C., 688 Faeh, D., 703 685 Haddadi, H., 717 Hickman, S. H., 728
Devecchio, D. E., 688 Faenza, L., 590 Giannakou, A., 705 Haefner, S., 713 Higgins, N., 722
Devore, J. D., 671 Falls, J., 666 Giardini, D., 601, 627, 642 Haendel, A., 587, 662 Hill, D. P., 694
Dhakal, Y. P., 737 Fan, W., 708 Gilchrist, J. J., 649 Hagman, M., 627 Hillers, G., 636, 637, 640
Dhar, M. S., 713 Fang, P., 697 Gill, D., 679 Hainzl, S., 588 Hipp, J. R., 679
Dickinson, H. L., 673 Fang, Z., 707 Gingery, J., 705 Haji-Soltani, A., 615, 653, 671 Hirakawa, E. T., 721
Diehl, J. G., 717 Farahani, R., 665 Gingery, J. R., 703 Hall, J., 732 Hirano, S., 709
Dieterich, J. H., 649, 689, 707 Feldman, J., 627 Given, D., 695 Hamburger, M. W., 670 Hirata, N., 622
Dinter, D. A., 672 Felizardo, C., 695, 738 Givler, R., 699 Hamburger, R., 590 Hiscock, A. I., 671
Ditommaso, R., 605 Feng, L., 657 Glasscoe, M. T., 603, 636, 667 Hammond, W. C., 602 Hitchcock, C. H., 635
Dixon, T. H., 657 Fenton, C., 714 Glenn, L. A., 606, 613 Hampshire, J., 732 Hitchcock, C. S., 608

on 09 October 2018
HjÖrleifsdÓttir, V., 595 Iwamoto, S., 610 Kim, B., 602, 670 Langlais, M., 714 Luco, N., 590, 593
Ho, K. Y. K., 715 Kim, Y., 677 Langley, R. B., 733 Lui, S. K. Y., 708, 712
Hobbs, T. E., 657 Jackson, D. D., 649 Kincaid, T. R., 611 Langridge, R. M., 651 Luisa Fernanda Castillo, L.,
Hobiger, M., 704 Jackson, D. J., 723 Kirby, S. H., 664 Langston, C. A., 593, 601, 638, 669
Hodgkinson, K. M., 684 Jaiswal, K. S., 647 Kircher, C. A., 646 675 Lumley, D., 640
Hogan, P. J., 698, 720, 734 Jalobeanu, A., 631 Kirtel, O., 631 Lanzo, G., 705 Luna, M., 609
Hogan, P., 697, 698, 720 Jamkhana, Z., 693 Kiser, E., 594 Lapusta, N., 647, 674, 708, Lundsten, E. M., 698
Hoirup, D. F., 596 Jaume, S., 601 Kiuchi, R., 618 722, 723 Luo, Y., 658
Holden, C., 660, 669 Jeong, S., 704 Kleber, E. J., 688 Larkin, T., 660 Lutz, A. T., 635
Holiiday, J. R., 645 Jeremic, B., 705 Klein, K., 627 Larmat, C. S., 613, 639, 715, Lynett, P., 657, 664
Holland, A. A., 690, 728, 732 Ji, C., 634, 673, 709, 712, 730 Klemperer, S. L., 701 728 Lyons, J., 682
Hollenback, J., 615, 619 Jiancang, J. C. Z., 681 Klin, P., 619 Larmat, C., 733 Lyzenga, G. A., 667
Hollenback, J. C., 669 Jiang, J., 648, 674 Klotsko, S. A., 700, 701 Larose, E., 641, 642
Hollender, F., 619, 661, 703, Jimenez, A., 588 Kluegel, J. U., 646 Larsen, Y., 596 Ma, K. F., 624, 710
705, 706, 714, 716 Jo, M., 633 Kluesner, J., 720 Laudet, P., 627, 642 Ma, S., 721
Hollingsworth, J., 651 Johannesson, G., 613, 724 Knight, E. E., 606 Laurendeau, A., 661 Ma, X., 617
Hollis, D., 594 Johanson, I., 596, 631, 736 Knight, W. R., 664 Lavoie, D., 729 Maccarthy, J. K., 614
Holmes, J. J., 700, 701, 735 Johnson, C., 642 Knudsen, K. L., 713 Law, A., 681, 730 Maceira, M., 639, 676, 679,
Holt, W. E., 593 Johnson, L. A., 664 Kobayashi, H., 659 Lawrence, M., 590 680
Hoots, C. R., 676 Johnson, P. A., 605, 685 Kobayashi, N., 642 Lecointre, A., 637 Macfarlane, E., 622
Hoover, S. M., 692, 727 Johnson, S., 720 Kocakaplan, S., 604 Lee, E., 679 Madariaga, R., 620
Hornblow, S., 702 Johnson, S. Y., 697, 718, 719 Kohler, M. D., 665, 701, 735, Lee, E. J., 639 Madden, E. H., 648
Horspool, N. A., 667 Jolivet, R., 648 736 Lee, R., 622, 665 Madugo, C. L., 635
Horton, B., 656 Jones, K. R., 732 Kohler, M., 603, 638 Lee, R. C., 715, 728 Madugo, C., 633
Horton, J. W., 610 Jones, L. M., 664 Koketsu, K., 601, 659 Lee, R. L., 641 Madugo, D., 633
Horton, S., 730 Jones, M., 609 Kokot, S., 605, 729 Lee, Y. T., 624, 710 Maechling, P. J., 622, 639
Horton, S. P., 725 Jonsdottir, K., 738 Komjathy, A., 733 Lees, J., 732 Maechling, P., 663, 680
Hoshiba, M., 695 Jordan, T. H., 587, 588, 591, Kong, Q., 634, 697 Lees, J. M., 606, 693, 733 Maghsoudi, S., 727
Hoshino, Y., 610 622, 639, 674, 680 Koper, K. D., 681 Legg, M. R., 649, 701, 702, 735 Magrin, A., 645
Hosseini, M., 653, 662, 671, Jordan, T., 663 Kornberg, K. A., 664 Leith, W., 647 Mahan, S., 671, 672
679 Juarez, A., 680 Kossobokov, V. I., 668 Leonard, M., 623 Mahan, S. A., 671
Hosseini, S. M., 729 Julius, A., 634 Kostin, V., 591 Leprince, S., 651 Mahdi, H., 609, 626, 628
Hough, E. S., 716 Jung, H., 633 Kostoglodov, V., 659 Leroy, T. H., 687 Mahdi, M., 609
Hough, S. E., 601, 610, 623 Kottke, A. R., 652 Levander, A., 594 Mahesh, P., 738
Hrubcova, P., 677 Kadirioglu, F. T., 641 Koufoudi, E., 712 Levandowski, W. B., 597 Mai, M., 711
Hu, Z., 667 Kaeser, M. A., 643 Kozaci, O., 647 Levine, N., 601 Mai, P. M., 592, 711, 727
Hua, H., 633 Kaiser, A., 669 Kraft, T., 641, 690 Lewandowski, N., 698, 720 Maier, K. L., 698, 701
Huang, H., 710 Kalkan, E., 604, 670, 731 Kramer, S., 705 Li, B., 639 Maizia, M., 667
Huang, M., 673, 717 Kamai, R., 654, 704 Kress, V., 696 Li, D., 634, 711 Mak, S., 588
Huang, M. H., 597 Kamei, R., 640 Kress, V. C., 736 Li, J., 639 Makela, J., 693
Huang, Y., 723 Kanamori, H., 642, 648, 695 Kristek, J., 591, 592, 619, 620 Li, L., 685 Malhotra, P. K., 655
Hubbard, J., 608, 609 Kane, D., 623, 625 Kristekova, M., 591, 619 Li, W., 657 Mallick, R., 674
Huckins-Gang, H. E., 611 Kao, H., 616 Kroll, K. A., 689, 707 Li, X., 713 Malservisi, R., 657
Hudnut, K. W., 595, 633, 690 Kara, R., 729 Krueger, F., 662 Li, Z., 594, 722, 731 Manea, E. F., 668, 675
Hudnut, K., 596, 632 Karakus, G., 737 Kruse, F. A., 631 Liang, W. T., 638 Mangan, M. T., 694
Huerta, A. D., 628 Karaoglu, H., 591 Ktenidou, O. J., 652, 654, 660, Liberty, L., 602 Manipon, G. J., 633
Huesca, E., 658 Karapetrou, S., 696 661, 705 Liberty, L. M., 603 Mann, D., 697
Hurd, J. D., 599, 616 Karim Zadeh Naghshineh, S., Ktenidou, O., 661 Lienkaemper, J., 596, 632 Mannucci, A. J., 733
Hurst, K., 642 686 Kuehn, D., 729 Lienkaemper, J. J., 595, 632 Marcillo, O., 732, 733
Hurst, K. J., 627 Karimi, S., 681 Kuehn, N., 669 Lim, I. S., 736, 737 Mareschal, M., 633
Husker, A., 659 Kartal, R. F., 641 Kuehn, N. M., 587, 615, 625 Lin, F. C., 637, 675, 717 Margerin, L., 653, 662
Hutchinson, L., 673 Kawase, H., 600, 605, 703, 705 Kühn, D., 694 Lin, G., 678 Margheriti, L., 667
Hutchison, A. A., 683 Kaya, Y., 604 Kunugi, T., 737 Lin, J., 627 Maria Cristina Dimaté
Hutko, A., 627 Kazimova, S., 610 Kurtulmus, T. O., 662 Lin, T., 644 Castellanos, M., 669
Hutton, K., 626 Ke, K. J., 681 Kurzon, I., 708 Lindsey, E. O., 700, 722 Marinkovic, P., 596
Huyck, C. K., 667 Kell, A. M., 700 Kuyuk, H. S., 630, 631, 696, Lisitsa, V., 591 Marmureanu, A., 668, 738
Hylland, M. D., 644 Keller, G. R., 691 739 Litchfield, N., 702 Marmureanu, G., 668
Kellogg, L. H., 596, 632, 723 Kuyuk, R. T., 739 Liu, A. W., 611 Marple, R. T., 599, 616
Iai, S., 705 Kelly, A. L., 731 Kwiatek, G., 691, 706 Liu, X., 636, 679 Marrot, M., 705
Ide, S., 658, 684 Kelson, K. I., 595 Kwong, K. B., 685 Liu, Y., 593 Martelli, L., 626
Iervolino, I., 696 Kent, G. M., 655, 700, 701, Kyriakopoulos, C., 620, 657 Liu, Z., 657 Martin, A. J., 717
Iglesias, A., 595 735 Liukis, M., 587, 622 Martin, S. S., 609
Iida, S., 726 Kent, G., 693 Laforge, R., 590 Llenos, A. L., 587, 632, 646, Martinelli, F., 590
Ijpelaan, F., 627 Keranen, K. M., 725 Lai, C., 696, 729 692, 727 Martínez-Garzón, P., 674
Imperatori, W., 711 Kerjean, L., 627 Lai, V. H., 634 Llenos, A., 691 Marzocchi, W., 587, 588, 590,
Imtiaz, A., 704, 712, 717 Khelfi, K., 693 Lajoie, L., 699, 720 Lognonne, P., 627, 642, 693 622
Inbal, A., 594 Khoshnevis, N., 593 Lamontagne, A., 693 Long, K., 664 Masaki, K., 630
Irikura, K., 601, 619, 630 Kientz, S., 627 Lamontagne, M., 729 Louie, J. N., 715 Masi, A., 631
Ishimura, D., 673 Kikuchi, Y., 631 Lan, X., 670 Loveless, J. P., 647 Massari, A., 603, 638
Ishutov, S., 735 Kilic, T., 641 Landry, W., 733 Lozos, J. C., 617, 648, 650 Matsushima, S., 600, 605, 703
Ismail, N., 656 Kim, A., 610, 726 Langbein, J. O., 738 Lu, M., 670 Matzel, E., 641, 724
Ito, Y., 658 Kim, A. M., 631 Langenheim, V. E., 608 Lu, Y., 713 Maufroy, E., 619, 703, 714

on 09 October 2018
Maxwell, S. C., 689, 694 Morency, C., 641 Obermann, A., 641 Perrin, N., 669 Rajendran, K., 674, 684
Mayeda, K., 600, 607 Moresco, J. C., 644 Oconnell, D. R. H., 699 Perron, V., 661, 714, 716 Rakoto, V., 693
Mayer, S., 609 Mori, J. J., 618 Odum, J. K., 608, 616, 713 Perry, S. C., 646, 664 Ramirez-Guzman, L., 717
Mayo, Z., 636 Mori, J., 693 Offield, D. G., 697 Perry, S., 723 Ramos, M., 638
Mayor, J., 653, 662 Mori, Y., 703 Oglesby, D. D., 610, 617, 664, Personius, S. F., 671 Ramthan, A., 609, 628
Mcauliffe, L. J., 608, 650 Mortensen, C. E., 664 666 Peters, B., 700 Ramzan, S., 687
Mcbean, K., 652 Morton, E. A., 731 Oglesby, D. O., 707 Petersen, M. D., 625, 646, 647, Ranasinghe, N. R., 653
Mcbean, K. M., 663 Moschetti, M. P., 618, 675, Oglesby, D., 620 660, 692, 727, 728 Rastogi, B. K., 738
Mcburnett, P., 687 692, 725, 727 Ogwari, P. O., 725 Petersen, M., 646 Rathje, E. M., 704
Mcclaren, M. K., 635 Moss, R. E. S., 721 Ogweno, L. P., 614 Petersson, N. A., 732 Raub, C., 641
Mccring, T., 633 Mostafanejad, A., 675 Ohmura, S., 630 Pezeshk, S., 599, 615, 653, 662, Real, C. R., 664
Mcdougall, D., 711 Motosaka, M., 604, 630 Ohno, S., 604 663, 671, 679 Rebez, A., 626
Mcgann, C. R., 641 Mousavi, S. M., 730 Ohrnberger, M., 662, 706 Phillips, D. A., 684 Reches, Z., 707
Mcgann, M., 698, 701 Mualchin, L., 645 Ohta, K., 658 Phillips, W. S., 640, 652, 676, Reed, D. N., 611
Mcgarr, A., 646, 692, 728 Mucciarelli, M., 587, 605, 626, Okada, S., 673 679 Reeder, J. W., 686
Mcgill, S. F., 650, 700 631, 729 Okaya, D., 638 Picozzi, M., 696 Reitman, N., 650
Mcguire, C. P., 651 Mueller, C. S., 646, 692, 725, Okaya, D. A., 730 Pierce, L., 610 Reitman, N. G., 671
Mcguire, J., 724 728 Okubo, P. G., 678 Pierce, M., 603 Renalier, F., 716
Mckinnon, E. E., 656 Munguía, L., 609 Okuwaki, R., 709, 711 Pierce, M. E., 667 Rennie, T., 655
Mclachlan, H., 678 Murray, J., 596, 719 Olsen, K. B., 592, 617, 654, Pike, W. T., 642 Reshetova, G., 591
Mclaren, M. K., 697, 719 Murray, J. A., 699 664, 680 Pilarczyk, J., 656 Reyes, J., 594, 731
Mcmahon, N. D., 724 Murray, J. R., 631, 633, 738 Olsen, R. C., 631 Pilz, M. P., 640 Reynolds, L. C., 699
Mcnamara, D. E., 724, 725, 727 Muto, M., 651 Olson, B. P. E., 734 Pilz, M., 653 Régnier, J., 705
Mcnamara, D., 690 Myers, S. C., 613, 640 Onderdonk, N. W., 650, 700 Pirchiner, M., 669 Rezaeian, S., 590, 593, 654
Mcnutt, S. R., 689 Onufer, N., 627 Pitarka, A., 597, 606, 610, 612, Rhoades, D. A., 588, 589, 622
Mcpherson, B. C., 686 Nabelek, J., 682 Onur, T., 626 613, 617, 619, 652 Rhodes, E. J., 608, 650, 651
Mcpherson, R. C., 687 Nadeau, R. M., 635, 684 Ortega, F., 648 Pitilakis, K., 652, 696, 703, 705 Riahi, N., 594, 637
Mcstroul, G., 688 Nagashima, F., 703 Ortiz, M., 634, 635 Plesch, A., 672 Richards, P. G., 738
Mcverry, G., 589, 669 Nakai, J. S., 691 Oskin, M. E., 596 Plumlee, G. S., 664 Riel, B., 648
Meade, B. J., 647 Nakano, K., 600 Ostenaa, D. A., 734 Poggi, V., 675, 715 Rietman, J. D., 718
Meertens, C. M., 684 Nakata, N., 655, 661 Ostenaa, D., 590 Polet, J., 687, 713, 715 Rietman, J., 719
Melbourne, T., 684 Nanjundiah, P., 710 Ostrom, T. A., 702 Pollitz, F. F., 650 Riquelme, S., 710
Meletti, C., 590, 667 Napoli, V., 607 Oth, A., 600 Pollitz, F., 631, 711 Ritchie, L. A., 664
Melgar, D., 620, 629, 697, 710 Navarro, M., 609 Owen, L. A., 734 Pondrelli, S., 667 Rivera, L., 642, 648
Mellors, R. J., 613 Nayak, A., 727 Owen, S., 648 Ponti, D. J., 595 Roberts, M. A., 718
Mencin, D., 697 Nechtschein, S., 716 Owen, S. E., 633 Ponzo, F. C., 605 Robeson, S. M., 670
Mendoza, M. M., 685 Neighbors, C., 725 Ozakin, Y., 594, 637 Porter, K. A., 664 Rockwell, T. K., 650, 700, 703,
Meng, H., 594, 637 Nekrasova, A., 668 Ozmutlu, A., 604 Porto, N. M., 624 734
Meng, L., 710 Nema, A., 629 Powell, C. A., 598, 615 Rodgers, A., 606
Meng, X., 594, 659, 733 Nemser, E., 726 Paces, J. B., 597 Powers, P. M., 625 Rodgers, A. J., 597, 612, 732
Menq, F., 622 Nemzek, R. J., 607 Pacor, F., 667 Pratt, T., 602 Rodgers, J. E., 643
Mercadante, J. M., 611 Neuhauser, D., 596, 736 Page, M. T., 589 Pratt, T. L., 608, 610 Rodriguez, A. J., 602
Mercerat, D.***, 705 Neuhauser, D. S., 736 Page, M., 623 Prejean, S. G., 694 Roecker, S., 642
Mercerat, E. D., 620 Newman, A. V., 657 Pankow, K. L., 681 Prentice, C. S., 595 Roeloffs, E. A., 658
Michael, A. J., 587, 632, 646, Ng, R., 713 Panning, M., 642 Preston, L., 678 Rogers, D., 610
728 Ni, J. F., 653 Panno, S. V., 597 Preusser, F., 629 Rolland, L., 693, 732
Michael, A., 692 Ni, S. D., 679 Panza, G. F., 645, 668 Pridmore, C., 666 Rolland, L. M., 733
Michel, C., 629, 675, 715 Ni, S., 676, 677 Parameswaran, R. M., 684 Priestly, K., 677 Rollins, J. C., 686, 733
Mikellides, I., 627 Nicol, A., 589, 651, 702 Paraskevopoulos, P., 738 Prieto, G. A., 595, 680 Romanelli, F., 645
Milillo, P., 596, 633 Nicolini, T., 666 Park, J. H., 736, 737 Priolo, E., 619, 729 Romanowicz, B., 639
Miller, K., 657, 664, 666 Nicolsky, D. J., 664, 665 Parker, J. W., 603, 633, 667, Prothro, L., 612 Rong, M., 713
Miller, K. C., 643 Nigbor, R. L., 706 690 Prothro, L. B., 611 Rood, D., 588
Miller, K. M., 666 Nigbor, R., 619, 629 Parker, T., 628 Protti, B., 636 Rosa, C. M., 595
Miller, R., 725 Nikbakht, H., 644 Parolai, S., 653, 696 Protti, J. M., 657 Rosa, C., 634
Milliner, C. W. D., 651 Nikolaou, S., 704 Parolai, S. P., 640 Pryor, I., 686 Rosakis, A. J., 723
Milner, K. R., 589, 591 Nishenko, S. P., 719 Parolaiap, S., 703 Pucci, S., 624, 688 Roselli, P., 591
Milner, K., 649 Nishenko, S., 697, 698, 699, Parsons, T. P., 623 Pullammanappallil, S., 678 Rosinski, A., 633, 666, 667,
Mimoun, D., 627, 694, 732 719, 720 Pasyanos, M. E., 614, 652 Pullammanappallil, S. K., 715 635
Mimounm, D., 642 Nissen, E., 596 Patton, H. J., 606 Puskas, C. M., 684 Ross, S. L., 664
Minson, S. E., 596, 695, 738 Niwa, Y., 673 Patton, J. R., 666, 686, 687 Pyle, M. L., 614 Ross, Z., 594, 637, 638, 731
Miranda, N., 696 Noda, S., 712 Paul, C. K., 701 Pyle, M., 607, 641, 724 Ross, Z. E., 636, 673, 676, 731
Mitsuji, K., 604 Noel, G., 729 Paull, C. K., 698 Roten, D., 592
Miyake, H., 600, 601, 619 Norabuena, E., 648 Pechmann, J. C., 672 Qiao, S., 611 Roth, M., 694
Mocquet, A., 642 Noriega, R., 675 Peek, L., 644 Qiu, H., 636, 675, 676 Roughley, C., 609, 633
Moczo, P., 591, 592, 619, 620, Norris, J. Q., 689 Pehlivan, M., 704 Quareni, F., 667 Rougier, E., 606, 613
703, 705 Nostro, C., 667 Pelties, C., 592 Quigley, M., 702 Roumelioti, Z., 652, 703, 705
Mohammadi, K., 704 Nowicki, M. A., 670 Peng, Z., 594, 659, 685, 722, Quiroz-Ramirez, A., 628 Roux, P., 605, 636, 637
Molas, G., 665 Numan, N., 626 731 Rowe, C., 683
Moley, K., 666 Nurlu, M., 641 Peresan, A., 645, 668 Rabade, S., 680 Rowe, C. A., 679, 731
Mondal, P., 738 Nyamwandha, C. A., 615 Perez, R., 627 Radulian, M., 675 Rubin, C., 656
Moore, A., 648 Nyst, M., 590, 623, 625, 660 Pérez-Campos, X., 687 Rahmani, M., 629 Rubin, R. S., 595, 633
Moran, N. K., 614 Nyst, M. C., 665 Perrault, M., 631 Rai, S. S., 685 Rubino, V., 723

on 09 October 2018
Rubinstein, J. L., 646, 691, Shah, A. K., 691 Stafford, P. J., 599 Thomassin, S., 716 Villafuerte, C., 659
692, 727 Shahjouei, A., 663 Steacy, S., 588 Thompson, E. M., 704, 713, Villamor, P., 702
Rubinstein, J., 692, 725 Shakal, A., 717 Stead, R. J., 652 714, 718 Villasenor, A., 675
Rugg, S. H., 703 Shakir, A. M., 626 Steedman, D. W., 606, 613 Thompson, S., 624, 720 Vinci, M., 738
Ruhl, C. J., 655 Shani-Kadmiel, S., 620 Steidl, J. H., 641 Thurber, C. H., 642, 676, 685, Virachuca, C., 669
Ruiz, M., 683 Shantz, T. J., 702 Stein, S., 588, 589 695 Viracucha, E., 683
Rukstales, K., 647 Share, P. E., 636, 637 Steinberg, S. M., 635 Tian, B. F., 613 Virieux, J., 593
Rundle, D. E., 645 Share, P., 676 Stéphane Drouet, S., 669 Tibuleac, I. M., 638, 678, 678 Vishnevsky, D., 591
Rundle, J. B., 603, 621, 632, Shaw, B. E., 708 Stephenson, W. J., 592, 608, Tinsley, J. C., 597 Visini, F., 591
633, 636, 645, 667, 689, Shaw, J., 672 616, 713 Titov, V. V., 664 Vogel, R. M., 727
723 Shaw, J. H., 608 Stern, T., 678 Tobin, L. T., 643 Vogfjord, K., 696
Rundle, P. B., 645 Shcherbakov, R., 632 Stevens, V. L., 686 Toda, S., 673 Voigt, V., 610
Runyon, S. C., 631 Shearer, P. M., 619, 678, 681, Stevenson, D. J., 694 Todesco, M., 667 Vorobiev, O. Y., 606, 613
Ruppert, N. A., 627 708 Stewart, J. P., 704, 705 Todorovska, M. I., 604, 629, Vorobiev, V. Y., 606
Ruppert, N., 673 Sheehan, A. F., 643, 691 Stirling, M. W., 589 630
Russell, D., 607 Sheen, D. H., 737 Stirling, M., 588 Toeneboehn, K., 706 Wade, A. M., 635
Ryan, K., 634, 664 Shelly, D. R., 694 Stokoe, K., 622 Tong, M., 590 Wagner, R. A., 738
Ryan, K. J., 666 Shen, C. C., 656 Stokoe, K. H., 715, 717 Tong, X., 651 Wagoner, J., 612
Rymer, M. J., 603 Shen, Y., 639 Stolte, A. C., 715 Toro, G. R., 716 Wald, D. J., 667, 670, 704,
Shen, Z. K., 625 Stone, I. P., 728 Torres Corredor, R., 682 713, 714
Sabadini, R., 682 Sherrod, B. L., 608 Stough, T. M., 603 Tournier, J. P., 729 Waldhauser, F., 656
Sachs, M. K., 621 Shi, J., 592 Strader, A., 710 Townsend, M. J., 611, 612 Walker, R. L., 730
Safak, E., 604, 696 Shi, Z., 653, 664, 722 Strayer, L. M., 706 Trabant, C., 627 Walls, C., 697
Sahakian, V. J., 700, 701, 735 Shintaku, N., 701 Streig, A. R., 649 Traversa, P., 663, 713 Walter, S., 691
Saikia, C. K., 613 Shirzaei, M., 685 Stroujkova, A., 607 Treiman, J. A., 734 Walter, W. R., 600, 607, 614
Salichon, J., 738 Shome, N., 670 Stubailo, I., 677 Tremayne, H., 634, 635 Walters, R. J., 596, 692
Salomone, L., 717 Shoushtari, A. V., 621, 622 Su, H., 615, 615 Trench, D., 636 Wang, B., 685
Sammis, C. G., 650, 707 Shrestha, A., 631 Sugino, M., 630 Trifunac, M. D., 604 Wang, J., 603, 667
Sammis, C., 651 Shuler, S., 609 Suleimani, E., 664, 665 Tromp, J., 642 Wang, R., 620
Samsanov, S., 648 Sicilia, D., 705, 706 Sumer, Y., 630 Tropeano, G., 705 Wang, T., 632
Samsonov, S., 596, 673 Sickler, R. R., 595, 603 Sumy, D. F., 614, 725, 730 Tsai, V., 594 Wang, X., 604, 630, 682
Sanabria, J. D., 592 Siegel, J., 666 Sun, J., 673 Tsai, V. C., 641, 717, 736 Wang, Y. J., 624
Sanborn, J., 714 Sieh, K., 609, 656, 687 Sun, X., 654, 670 Tsang, S., 640 Wang, Y., 619
Sandron, D., 626 Silva, F., 663 Sutton, J. N., 665 Tsereteli, N., 663 Wang, Z., 622, 646, 713
Sandvol, E. A., 660 Silva, W. J., 654, 704 Suzuki, W., 737 Tsesarsky, M., 620 Ward, K. M., 675
Sandvol, E., 653 Silwal, V., 673 Svarc, J., 631 Tsuruoka, H., 622 Watkins, M., 626
Sandwell, D. T., 651, 722 Simila, G., 688 Swanson, B. J., 733 Tucker, B. E., 643, 644, 664 Watt, J. T., 697, 718
Sani, F., 626 Simmons, N. A., 613 Syracuse, E. M., 676, 680 Turcotte, D. L., 621, 632, 636, Watt, J., 720
Santha, R., 670 Simms, A. R., 699 689, 723 Weatherill, G., 669
Santulin, M., 626 Simons, M., 648 Taborda, R., 593, 679 Turner, J. P., 735 Webb, F. H., 633
Sasaki, A., 610 Simpson, R., 699 Taciroglu, E., 629 Turner, J., 636, 699, 719, 720 Webb, S. C., 674
Saul, J., 685 Singh, S. C., 609 Taddeucci, J., 606 Tuttle, M. P., 616 Weekly, R., 627
Saunders, J. K., 629, 697 Singh, S. K., 595, 687 Tago, J., 592 Twardzik, C., 634 Weeraratne, D. S., 701, 735
Savage, H., 648 Singla, V. K., 621 Taibat, M., 705 Wei, S., 634, 712
Savran, W. H., 664 Sjogreen, B., 613, 732 Taira, T., 634 Uematsu, H., 610 Wei, S. J., 632, 690
Schaff, D. P., 656, 738 Skarlatoudis, A., 659, 669 Takedatsu, R., 617 Ugalde, A., 675 Wei, S. S., 674
Scharer, K. M., 672 Sleep, N. H., 661 Takeuchi, T., 610 Ulusoy, H. S., 604 Wei, Z., 676
Scharer, K., 687 Slejko, D., 626 Tallett-Williams, S., 714 Umland, J., 627 Wein, A., 664
Scherbaum, F., 587 Small, P., 679 Tamaro, A., 626 Unruh, J., 697, 699 Weingarten, M., 691, 728
Schinagel, S. M., 686 Smith, D. E., 707, 738 Tang, C., 676 Urbancic, T. I., 694, 724, 730 Weiser, D. A., 723
Schmandt, B., 594, 643, 676 Smith, K., 693 Tanimoto, T., 640, 693 Urbancic, T., 689 Weldon, R. J., 602, 649
Schmidt, D. A., 737 Smith, K. D., 655 Tape, C., 673, 722 Urra, L., 665 Weldon, R., 687
Schneider, P., 590 Smith, S. W., 686 Tarnowski, J. M., 610 Wells, D. L., 623
Schorlemmer, D., 588, 622 Smith, T., 730 Taroni, M., 588, 591 Vaccari, F., 645 Wen, W., 604
Schultz, K. W., 621, 636 Smrekar, S., 642 Tasan, H., 588 Vadnais, F., 616 Wen, Z. P., 611
Schultz-Fellenz, E., 622 Snelson, C. M., 612 Tatar, M., 677 Valdez, T., 609 Werner, M. J., 587
Schuster, G. T., 637 Sojourner, A., 702 Tavakoli, B., 599 Valentine, G., 606 Werner, M., 622
Schwartz, D. P., 595 Sokos, E., 696, 738 Taylor, W. J., 672 Van Der Elst, N. J., 708 Wesling, J. R., 595
Schwartz, S. Y., 683 Somerville, P. G., 659 Tcheverda, V., 591 Van Dissen, R., 589 Wesnousky, S. G., 624, 700,
Seats, K., 642 Somerville, P., 619, 644, 669, Teague, D. P., 641 Van Dissen, R. J., 702 701, 735
Seddiki, E., 667 721 Templeton, D. C., 724 Van Houtte, C., 660, 669 West, J. D., 685
Segall, P., 598 Sonder, I., 606 Templeton, D., 641 Vavrycuk, V., 656, 677 West, M., 673
Segou, M. S., 623 Sone, H., 691 Tepp, G., 642 Verdier, N., 627 Whitaker, R. W., 732
Segovia, M., 683 Song, S. G., 617 Thatcher, W., 699, 719 Vergniault, C., 706 Whitakerr, R., 733
Seifried, A. E., 716 Song, X., 639 Thenhaus, P. C., 668 Verkhoglyadova, O., 733 White, M., 594, 731
Seitz, G. G., 595 Sowers, J., 699, 719, 720 Theodoulidis, N., 703, 704 Vernon, F., 594, 636, 637, 722, White, R., 732
Seitz, G., 634 Spagnuolo, E., 624 Thio, H. K., 657, 664, 669, 731 Whitmore, P. M., 664
Seong, Y. J., 736, 737 Specht, S., 587 721 Vernon, F. L., 637, 676, 708 Wiemer, S., 641, 690, 696
Serrhini, K., 667 Spencer, B., 588 Thomas, A. M., 684 Verrier, F., 738 Wiens, D. A., 674
Sesetyan, K., 620 Spencer, B. D., 589 Thomas, P., 692 Vidale, J., 696 Williams, C., 660
Setnz, K., 607 Squibb, M. B., 697 Thomas, V., 627 Vidale, J. E., 737 Williams, C. R., 665
Seyhan, E., 602 St Fleur, S., 716 Thomas, V. I., 626 Viegas, G., 689 Williams, R. A., 608, 616

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Williams, R., 610 Woolery, E. W., 713 Yang, Y. -. M., 733 Yu, E., 626, 627, 697 Zhang, Q., 681
Williams, T. B., 686, 687 Worden, C. B., 667, 714 Yang, Y., 638 Yu, J., 622, 712 Zhang, W., 619, 639
Wills, C., 699 Workman, E., 637 Yao, Q., 722 Yue, H., 709 Zhang, Y., 620
Wills, C. J., 660 Worthington, L. L., 643 Yao, Z. X., 613 Yuen, D. A., 682 Zhang, Z., 619
Wilson, P., 665 Wotherspoon, L., 669 Yashinsky, M., 702 Yule, D., 687 Zhao, J., 589
Wilson, R. I., 664, 666 Wotherspoon, L. M., 641 Yassminh, R., 660 Yule, J. D., 602 Zhao, J. X., 654, 670
Wilson, R., 657, 666 Wright, T. J., 596 Ye, L., 676 Yun, S., 633 Zhao, L. F., 613
Winberry, J. P., 628 Wu, F. T., 638 Yen, Y. T., 711 Yun, S. H., 596 Zhou, D., 699
Withers, K. B., 653 Wu, J., 685 Yetirmishli G., G., 610 Zhu, J., 718, 727
Witkosky, R., 687 Wu, Q., 598 Yikilmaz, M. B., 632, 723 Zafir, Z., 703 Zhu, L., 673
Woessner, J., 625 Wyss, M., 589 Yilar, E., 715 Zaliapin, I., 681 Zielke, O., 711
Wolff, L., 687 Yin, J., 619, 706 Zandieh, A., 599, 615 Zigone, D., 594, 636, 637, 675,
Won, P., 667 Xia, Y. J., 679 Yin, L., 737 Zechar, J. D., 588 679
Wong, I., 692, 726 Xie, J., 682 Yoder, M. R., 621, 636, 667 Zechar, J., 622 Zinke, R., 651
Wong, V., 609 Xie, X. B., 613 Yong, A., 713 Zeiler, C. P., 628 Zoback, M. D., 692
Wood, C. M., 641 Xu, X., 651 Yoo, S., 600, 607 Zembaty, Z., 605, 729 Zollo, A., 695, 696
Wood, N. J., 664 Yoo, S. H., 702 Zeng, Y., 625 Zondervan, A., 588
Woodell, K. E., 597 Yagi, Y., 709, 711 Young, B. A., 601 Zerva, A., 717 Zschau, J., 696
Woods, M., 613 Yagoda-Biran, G., 714 Young, C. J., 679 Zha, Y., 674 Zu, X., 707
Woodward, R. L., 614 Yamada, M., 693 Young, J., 611 Zhang, H., 639, 676, 680, 695 Zuccolo, E., 696
Woodward, R., 628 Yang, X., 606, 652, 677 Youngs, R. R., 623 Zhang, J., 699 Zweifel, P., 627

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SSA 2015 Annual Meeting Announcement

Seismological Society of America

This 2015 technical program committee is led by co-chairs Press Relations

Exhibits Joyner Lecture

“Career Game-Changers: Strategic Avenues to Landing the WALKING TOUR

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SCHEDULE Friday, 24 April

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Ballroom B Ballroom C Ballroom F Ballroom G Ballroom H

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Time Ballroom B Ballroom C Ballroom F Ballroom G Ballroom H

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Characterizing the Potential Impacts of Surface Fault

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