Vol. 2, No.

1 EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND ENGINEERING VIBRATION June, 2003

Article ID: 1671-3664 ( 2003 ) 01 - 0001-23

Earthquake risk assessment for Istanbul metropolitan area

M. Erdikt, N. Aydinoglu*, Y. Fahjan*, K. Sesetyan ~, M. Demircioglu ~ , B. Siyahi *, E. Durukal *,

C. Ozbey ~, Y. Biro ~, H. Akman ~ and O. Yuzugullu*
Bo~azici University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract: The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associ-
ated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers, the seismic risk is best
quantified and portrayed through the preparation of "Earthquake Damage and Loss Scenarios. " The components of such
scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of
the earthquake risk scenario in Istanbul, two independent approaches, one based on intensities and the second on spectral
displacements, are utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the method-
ology, discuss the results and provide insights to future developments.

Keywords: earthquake risk assessment; metropolitan area; intensity; spectral displacement; earthquake damage; loss
scenario

1 Background and methodology urban earthquake risk is presented in Tucker and Er-
dik (1994). In Japan, Oyo Corporation has produced
In recent decades, earthquake disaster risks in Is-
an earthquake damage scenario development method-
tanbul have increased mainly due to a very high rate
ology (Komaru et al. , 1995 ) that has found applica-
of urbanization, faulty land-use planning and con-
tion in several cities (e. g. , Kawasaki City, Saitama
struction, inadequate infrastructure and services, and
Prefecture, Kanagawa Prefecture, Quito, Tehran) as
environmental degradation. The other important
well as in the IDNDR RADIUS (http ://geohaz. org/
source of the increased risk in Istanbul is the unprece-
radius/) Project. EPEDAT (The Early Post-earth-
dented increase of the probability of occurrence of a
quake Damage Assessment Tool ) (Eguehi et a l . ,
large earthquake. The inevitability of the occurrence
1997 ) is a GIS-based system capable of modeling
of such a large earthquake in Istanbul makes it impera-
building and lifeline damage and estimating casualties
tive that certain preparedness and emergency proce-
in near real-time given the source parameters of an
dures be contrived in the event of and prior to an
earthquake. HAZUS (http://www. fema. gov/ha-
earthquake disaster, which in turn requires quantifi-
zus/) is a standardized earthquake loss estimation
cation of the effects of the earthquake on the physical
methodology intended for national application in the
and social environment. The specific study reported
U.S. (Whitman and Lagorio, 1999 ). HAZUS pro-
herein is essentially intended for the quantification of
vides quantitative estimates of losses in terms of direct
building losses, which is directly related to casual-
costs for repair and replacement of damaged buildings
ties, planning of emergency response, first aid and
and lifeline system components; direct costs associat-
emergency shelter needs. Rational earthquake loss as-
ed with loss of function; and casualties and people
sessments will pave the way for contingency planning
displaced from residences. To generate this informa-
and retrofit prioritization of physical elements at risk
tion, the methodology includes: classification systems
in Istanbul.
for assembling information on the building stock,
A compilation of worldwide investigations on
highway lifelines, demographic and economic data;
Correspondence to: Mustafa Erdik, Bo~azici Univ. Kandilli methods for evaluating damage and calculating various
Observatory. and Earthquake Res. Inst. , Dept. of Earth- losses. A number of cities worldwide ( Addis Ababa,
quake Eng., Istanbul, Turkey Antofagasta, Bandung, Guayaquil, Izmir, Tashkent,
Tel: 90-216-308 05 14; Fax: 90-216-308 01 63 Skopje, Tijuana and Zigong) were engaged in risk
E-mail : erdik@ boun. edu. tr modeling in the UN-IDNDR program RADIUS (ht-
t Professor Doctor;*Assistant Professor; ~Research Assistant; tp ://geohaz. org/radius/). Several earthquake loss
* Associate Professor scenario assessment studies at various levels of
Received date: 2003-02-21; Accepted date: 2003-06-02
 2 EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND ENGINEERING VIBRATION
sophistication have also been carried out in Europe
(ENSeRVES, 2000) ; Basel ( Faeh et al. , 2001 ) ;
Barcelona (Barbat et al. , 1996) ; Catania (Faccioli et
a l . , 1997); Quito (Fernandez et a l . , 1994); Istan-
bul (Erdik et a l . , 1995); Izmir (Erdik et a l . ,
2000) and ; Bucharest ( Wenzel et al. , 1998).
In this study, we have adopted two independent
methodologies for the computation of losses. Both
methodologies start with the definition of the scenario
earthquake. The first methodology assesses the distri-
bution of the ensuing ground motion in terms of inten-
sities using regional intensity-based attenuation rela-
tionships and also relies on intensity-based empirical
physical and social vulnerabilities to compute the los-
ses. The second methodology computes the ground
motion field in terms of spectral quantities to assess
the seismic demand and utilizes spectral-displace-
ment-based theoretical vulnerability relationships to
arrive at losses. Both of these methodologies encom-
pass an uncertainty and natural variability of the input
and output parameters. For both methodologies, the
ground motion (hazard) and the physical and demo-
graphic inventories (elements at risk) are aggregated
in a grid system (geo-cells). Using two separate
methodologies assists in quantification of the range of
uncertainties in the risk results. Geographical infor-
mation systems (GIS) are the tool to manage and map
the different hazards, inventory and loss information.
Owing to the closed-form nature of the available soft-
ware. (e. g. , HAZUS) with built in routines, we have
decided to develop our own open software (KOERIL-
oss) based on these two methodologies. KOERILoss
operates through geo-cells systems to facilitate the ma-
~nipulation of data on building stock, population and
eai'thquake hazards. The software is developed using
~the MapBasie language and runs efficiently under
MapInfo Professional software (www. mapinfo, corn)
The level of analysis corresponds to Level 2 type analy-
sis in HAZUS-1999.
The first ingredient of this loss scenario is the as-
sessment of the earthquake hazard, quantified in
terms of spatial distribution of site-specific intensities
and spectral accelerations. The vulnerability of build-
ings and lives constitute the second ingredient.
2 Earthquake hazard
For urban earthquake loss scenario studies, the
urban environment is generally discretized into a grid
(or geo-cell) system. The earthquake hazard can be
obtained either by deterministic or probabilistic ap-
proaches. For the assessment of losses to infrastruc-
ture systems and contingency planning, a determinis-
tic (scenario earthquake-based) approach is needed.
Vol. 2
Since the probabilistic losses cannot take place simul-
taneously at all geo-cells, the sum of these individual
losses overestimates the total loss in the urban area.
The scenario earthquake can be assessed through de-
aggregation of the probabilistic hazard to find the
source that contributes most to the overall hazard or,
for the case of Istanbul, the scenario earthquake can
be prescribed to take place on a specific fault. Com-
pilation and interpretation of propagation path charac-
teristics, topographical, geological and geotechnical
data, and the identification of the proper attenuation
and site response analysis models constitute other im-
portant ingredients of earthquake hazard assessment.
2.1 Tectonics and seismicity
West of 3 1 . 5 ~ toward the Marmara Sea region
the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) begins to
lose its single fault line character and splays into a
complex fault system. Based on low-resolution bathy-
metric data and earthquake occurrences, several re-
searchers have developed different tectonic models for
the Marmara Sea. Data obtained during the recent
high-resolution bathymetric survey of the Ifremer RV
Le Suroit vessel indicates that a single, thoroughgoing
strike-slip fault system (Main Marmara Fault) cuts
the Marmara Sea from east to west joining the 1999-
08-17 Kocaeli earthquake fault with the 1912-08-09
Sarkoy-Murefte earthquake fault. The Main Marmara
Fault is argued to be a very young structure (about
200,000 a (year) old) , cutting across the older struc-
tures that formed the present NNE-SSW extensional
pull-apart morphology of the Marmara Sea and exhib-
its typical characteristics of a major strike-slip fault.
The fault follows the northern boundary of the
Cinarc~k Basin between Yes, ilkt~y and the entrance
of the Gulf of Izmit ( Fig. 1 ). For the Main Marmara
Fault, the slip rate is found to be in the range of 2-3
cm/a (Armijo et al. , 1999).
In Istanbul, earthquake records spanning two mil-
lennia indicate that, on average, at least one medium
intensity ( epicentral intensity, Io = VII - VIII) earth-
quake has affected the city every 50 a (Ambraseys
and Finkel, 1991 ). The average return period for
high intensity (epicentral intensity, Io = VIII - IX)
events has been 300 a. Fig. 2 shows long-term seismic
activity of the Marmara region whereas Fig. 3 illus-
trates the last ten years of seismic activity.
The earthquake damage experienced by the histori-
cal structures in Istanbul has been well documented.
It has been assessed (Durukal and Erdik, 1994) that
the Hagia Sophia Museum was affected by intensities
reaching to IX during earthquakes in 1509 and 1754.
The 1999-08-17 Kocaeli earthquake (Mw 7 . 4 ) oc-
curred on the North Anatolian Fault Zone with a