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methodology
6 Risk assessment The assessment of public safety was conducted
methodology through a quantitative risk assessment which is also
described in Chapter 10.
6.1 Introduction
INPEX has committed to a systematic risk assessment
6.2 Methodology
process as a means of achieving best practice in
Risk-based environmental assessment is recognised
environmental management for its Ichthys Gas Field
as an iterative process that is subject to an inherent
Development Project (the Project). The company
degree of uncertainty. In order to reduce the levels
believes that considerable advantages can be
of uncertainty, this methodology allows for ongoing
gained by communicating environmental impacts
research, monitoring and review as part of the
through a risk‑ranking process to stakeholders and
environmental review process outlined in Chapter 11.
decision‑makers. Understanding the risks to the
environment that a development of this type can pose The risk assessment methodology adopted for
and the factors that govern whether such risks are the Draft EIS ensures that a systematic approach
likely to emerge is essential to a proactive approach to is applied to the assessment and management of
environmental management. environmental risk. The methodology can be divided
into three main steps:
This chapter of the draft environmental impact
1. risk scoping and preliminary risk assessment
statement (Draft EIS) describes the methodology used
6 to identify and categorise environmental risks resulting 2. detailed risk assessment
3. communication of residual risk.
Risk Assessment Methodology
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6
Ichthys Gas Field Development Project | Draft Environmental Impact Statement Page 233
The workshops involved participants from a number of Identification of environmental impacts
Project disciplines and groups, including the following: Once identification of the activities which could result
• environmental engineers and scientists in a particular environmental aspect was complete, the
• civil engineers likely impacts of each were identified.
• process engineers
An environmental impact has been defined as follows:
• onshore facilities personnel
any change to the environment, whether adverse
• offshore facilities personnel
or beneficial, wholly or partly resulting from an
• marine operations personnel
organization’s environmental aspects.1
• pipeline engineers
• operations personnel Each environmental aspect has been considered in
• quality, health and safety personnel. turn against each sensitive receptor in the surrounding
The outcomes of the preliminary risk workshops environment for a potential pathway or interaction.
formed the basis of the Project’s environmental risk Where pathways exist, each potential environmental
and aspect register. This was then built upon in the impact has been recorded in the aspect register.
subsequent detailed risk workshops.
Greenhouse gases constitute a significant
The methods used in the workshops are summarised environmental risk. However, the standard risk
below. assessment processes (assessing consequence
6 versus likelihood) is not an appropriate tool for
evaluating global pollutants. Greenhouse gas
Risk Assessment Methodology
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6
Management
Critical Undertake an ALARP (“as low as reasonably practicable”) assessment and consider risk‑sharing,
transfer and avoidance options.
High Assess risk and manage to an ALARP level.
Medium Review to ensure that appropriate barriers and controls are in place.
Low Manage by operational documentation.
Ichthys Gas Field Development Project | Draft Environmental Impact Statement Page 235
Input from government, specialists and 6.2.2 Detailed risk assessment
stakeholders
Conducting technical studies and surveys
Environmental impact statement guidelines In order to inform the detailed risk assessment and
The environmental impact statement guidelines address the uncertainties or knowledge gaps that
prepared for the Project by the Commonwealth’s were identified at the risk scoping and preliminary risk
Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the assessment stage, a range of environmental surveys
Arts (DEWHA) and the Northern Territory’s Department and modelling studies were undertaken.
of Natural Resources, Environment, the Arts and Sport
These included the following:
(NRETAS), issued in September 20082, identified the key
• marine water and sediment quality studies
matters of concern and established the scope for the
environmental, social and economic studies required to • marine ecology and benthic community studies
assess the potential impacts of the Project. • terrestrial ecology studies
• hydrology and hydrogeology studies
These EIS guidelines were presented for public review
• oil‑spill trajectory modelling for the nearshore and
in draft form in June 2008 to provide an opportunity
offshore development areas
for stakeholders to comment on issues relating to the
Project. The DEWHA and NRETAS took the feedback • dredge‑plume modelling for the nearshore
from the review period into consideration when finalising development areas
• plume modelling for wastewater discharges in the
6 the guidelines for publication in September 2008.
nearshore and offshore development areas
Risk Assessment Methodology
Scoping of technical studies and surveys • air‑quality modelling for the onshore and nearshore
INPEX had earlier engaged in a workshop with development areas
various Northern Territory government departments, • noise modelling, both underwater and terrestrial.
in April 2008, to discuss the range of baseline and
impact assessment studies required for the onshore A comprehensive list of the studies and modelling
and nearshore development areas. Participants in programs undertaken is provided in Chapter 1
the workshop included government experts from Introduction.
various divisions of NRETAS and the Department
of Planning and Infrastructure3, members of the Validate environmental aspects, Project activities
INPEX environmental team, INPEX engineers, and and risks
environmental specialists. This process enabled Following the preliminary environmental risk
the participants to identify significant environmental workshops and using input from the technical studies,
values within the Project area, to carry out a high‑level the modelling, and the stakeholder engagement
assessment of relevant existing knowledge, and to exercise, it was possible to assess the risks to the
reach agreement on the scope and methods of further environment in more detail. This was undertaken in a
investigations to be carried out by INPEX.
series of workshops by specialists in the various fields.
Page 236 Ichthys Gas Field Development Project | Draft Environmental Impact Statement
These steps are described below. Likelihood can be described as the level of probability
that, or the frequency with which, an aspect of an
Validation of environmental aspects and impacts activity will impact upon the environment.
The information gathered both from the technical The likelihood levels applied in this detailed risk
studies and modelling and from government agencies assessment have been quantified using six categories,
and stakeholders assisted the workshop team ranging from “remote” (1) to “highly likely” (6) and
members to assess and validate the environmental is based on past experience and on frequency or
aspects and impacts previously identified during the probability depending on the nature of the aspect, the
preliminary environmental risk workshops. type of activity and the availability of data as shown in
Table 6-2.
Determination of likelihood and consequence
A consequence can be defined as an outcome or
The risk assessment required a more detailed impact from an event occurring. Six categories,
approach to determining the likelihood and ranging from “catastrophic” (A) to “slight” (F), have
consequence of each impact. The definitions used been used to describe the type and severity of a
for likelihood and consequence during this detailed consequence of an impact on the environment
assessment are described below and shown in resulting from a planned or accidental activity of the
tables 6-2 and 6-3, the environmental risk matrix is Project. As multiple consequences may apply for a
shown in Figure 6-2, and the categories are explained
in Table 6-1.
single hazard or aspect, the approach used was to
6
take the worst credible risk (in terms of consequence
Likelihood ➞
Unheard of in the Has occurred Has occurred Has occurred Has occurred Has occurred
industry once or twice in many times in once or frequently in frequently at
Historical the industry the industry, twice in the the Company the location
but not in the Company
Company
Once every Once every Once every Once every Once every More than
Frequency 10 000–100 000 1000–10 000 100–1000 years 10–100 1–10 years at once a
(continuous years at the years at the at the location years at the the location year at the
operation) location location location location or
continuously
Probability 1 in 1 in 1 in 1 in 1 in 10–100 >1 in 10
(single 100 000–1 000 000 10 000–100 000 1000–10 000 100–1000
activity)
1 2 3 4 5 6
Remote Highly unlikely Unlikely Possible Likely Highly likely
Ichthys Gas Field Development Project | Draft Environmental Impact Statement Page 237
6
Risk Assessment Methodology
Page 238
B1 B2 B3 E1 E2 E3 E4 S1 S2 S3
Eradication of local Permanent loss of Significant and Continuous or regular Permanent to long-term Continuous exceedance Extensive off-site Significant permanent Significant permanent Significant and
population. primary producers on permanent effects on contamination of contamination above over national or contamination of effect on one or more of impact on aesthetic, continuous licence or
Loss of critical habitats or large or regional scale. ecological diversity on a water quality above background and/or international air-quality groundwater and/or soil protected-areas values. heritage, economic or regulatory or internal
activities. regional scale. background and/or national or international standards. on a regional scale. recreational values. target exceedances.
national or international quality standards and/or Human fatalities Cost of effective Overall societal benefits Fines and/or A
standards and/or known biological effect possible. treatment not possible. do not outweigh impacts. prosecutions incurred or
known biological effect concentrations on a Sustained damage to expected.
concentrations on a regional scale. the environment; human
regional scale. health risks likely.
Extensive impact on Recoverable loss of Significant and Continuous or regular Permanent to long-term Frequent and sustained Extensive off-site Significant long-term Significant long-term Frequent and significant
population(s). primary producers on a permanent effects on contamination of contamination above exceedance over national contamination of effect on one or more of impact on aesthetic, licence or regulatory
Significant impact on large scale. ecological diversity on a water quality above background and/or or international air groundwater and/or soil protected-areas values. heritage, economic or or internal target
critical habitats or large scale. background and/or national or international quality standards. at a medium scale. recreational values. exceedances.
activities. national or international quality standards and/or Human fatalities Treatment difficult and/ Overall societal benefits Fines or prosecutions B
standards and/or known biological effect possible. or expensive. do not outweigh impacts. likely.
known biological effect concentrations on a large Damage to the
concentrations on a large scale. environment and risk to
scale. human health possible.
Minor disruptions to a Permanent loss of Significant and Continuous or regular Permanent to long-term Frequent, short-term Extensive contamination Moderate long-term Moderate impact on Frequent, minor to
significant portion of the primary producers on a permanent effects on discharge with contamination above exceedances over of groundwater and/ or permanent effect aesthetic, economic, moderate licence or
population. medium scale. ecological diversity on a contamination above background and/or national or international or soil, off‑site on one or more of heritage or recreational regulatory or internal
Minor impacts on critical medium scale. background and/or national or international air-quality standards. contamination probable protected-areas values. values. target exceedances.
habitats or activities. national or international quality standards and/or Human illness and treatment difficult Overall societal benefits Fines or prosecutions C
No threat to overall quality standards and/or known biological effect and effects on the and/or expensive. do not outweigh impacts. possible.
population viability. known biological effect concentrations on a environment possible. Limited threat to the
concentrations on a medium scale. environment or human
medium scale. health.
Minor disruptions or impact Recoverable loss of Loss of ecological Continuous or regular Short- to medium-term Frequent temporary Moderate contamination Moderate medium-term Moderate impact on Occasional significant
on a small portion of the primary producers on a diversity on a medium discharge with contamination above exceedances over to groundwater or soil, effect on one or more of aesthetic, heritage, licence or regulatory
population. medium scale. scale. contamination above background and/or national or international contained within site protected-areas values. economic or recreational or internal target
Minor and temporary Community or habitat background and/or national or international air quality standards. boundary and readily Full recovery expected. values. exceedances.
impact on critical habitat maintains ecological national or international quality standards and/or Human illness treated. Overall societal benefits Fines or prosecutions
Consequences
or activity. integrity though some quality standards and/or known biological effect and effects on the No significant threat outweigh impacts. possible.
known biological effect concentrations on a D
No threat to overall change in species environment possible. to the environment or
population viability. composition or concentrations on a local medium scale. human health.
Table 6-3: Definitions of consequences of environmental risk assessments
* C = consequence.
†
L = likelihood.
‡
RR = risk rating.
§
F – describes the level of consequence; B2 – describes the category of consequence.
Ichthys Gas Field Development Project | Draft Environmental Impact Statement Page 239
It is important to note that the socio-economic aspects Once approved and published, the Draft EIS will be
of the Project’s operating environment are complex, exhibited for public review and comment. During this
and are influenced by many factors that are additional public review period, any member of the public or
to the direct effects of the Project. For example, the government may submit comments or concerns on the
local labour market will vary according to national environmental impacts of the Project to the DEWHA or
and international economic conditions, making the to NRETAS through INPEX.
consequences of the Project (which would be a
relatively large employer in the Darwin region) difficult 6.2.4 Ongoing monitoring and review
to predict at any point in time. Environmental risk assessment is an iterative process.
The aspect register generated as a result of the risk
In addition, the consequences of certain
assessment workshop will be reviewed and updated
socio-economic impacts are sometimes subjective
as required. These reviews will be informed by ongoing
and would be rated differently by different people. For
environmental monitoring conducted as part of the
example, the consequences of the Project employing
environmental management system. This is critical for
large numbers of workers in the Darwin region could
achieving continual improvement. The framework for
be seen as a positive opportunity for the employees
environmental monitoring is outlined in Chapter 11.
joining INPEX, but a negative impact by other
businesses seeking to attract or retain workers. In addition, as the Project progresses through the
6 For these reasons, risk-ranking was not undertaken
front-end engineering design phase to the
construction and operations phases there will be
for some of the socio‑economic aspects. Potential
Risk Assessment Methodology
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