Evidence of Global

Warming
Tools Scientist Use to Study
Climate Change
● Weather stations, buoys, satellites, radar,
ice and ocean cores, tree rings, cave
deposits, native knowledge
Evidence of Global Warming
● Carbon Dioxide Increasing in Atmosphere
● Increased Temperatures
● Disappearing Glaciers / Melting Arctic Sea
Ice
● Rising Sea Levels
● More Frequent Extreme Weather

H Graham BSc PGCE

Carbon Dioxide Increasing in
Atmosphere

● The atmospheric levels of the greenhouse

gas carbon dioxide, have increased since
pre-industrial times from 280 part per million
(ppm) to 398 ppm, over a 30% increase.

● Carbon dioxide concentrations in the

atmosphere are the highest in 160,000
years.

H Graham BSc PGCE

H Graham BSc PGCE
 The “Greenhouse Effect”

● The Earth’s surface thus receives energy

from two sources: the sun & the
atmosphere
● As a result the Earth’s surface is ~33 C warmer than it would
be without an atmosphere

Greenhouse gases are transparent to

shortwave but absorb longwave radiation
● Thus the atmosphere stores energy
 Example of the Greenhouse
Effect
The Sun’s energy passes
through the car’s
windshield.

This energy (heat) is

trapped inside the car
and cannot pass back
through the windshield,
causing the inside of the
car to warm up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hi3ERes0h84
 Selected Greenhouse Gases

● Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

● Source: Fossil fuel burning, deforestation
● Anthropogenic (man made) increase: 30%
● Average atmospheric residence time: 500 years
● Methane (CH4)
● Source: Rice cultivation, cattle & sheep ranching, decay
from landfills, mining
● Anthropogenic increase: 145%
● Average atmospheric residence time: 7-10 years
● Nitrous oxide (N2O)
● Source: Industry and agriculture (fertilizers)
● Anthropogenic increase: 15%
● Average atmospheric residence time: 140-190 years
 Climate Change vs. Variability
14.
5 58.
14. 0
4 57.
14. Variabilit 8
3 57.
14. y 6
2
14. Averag 57.
1 4
e 57.
14.
0 2
13. 57.
9 0
13. 56.
8 8
13.
56.
7
6
13.
6 56.
13. 4
5 56.
13. 2
4 184 186 188 190 192 192 194 196 198 2000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
www.gcrio.org/ipcc/qa/cover.html
(modified)
 Climate Change vs. Variability

Climate variability is natural.

Even in a stable climate regime, there will always be

some variation (wet/dry years, warm/cold years) A
year with completely “average” or “normal” climate
conditions is rare

The challenge for scientists is to determine whether

any increase/decrease in precipitation, temperature,
frequency of storms, sea level, etc. is due to climate
variability or climate change.
The degree of warming will not be uniform
everywhere
higher latitudes are more sensitive

Source: IPCC
Disappearing Glaciers
● Ice is melting all over the planet. Glaciers are melting on
six continents. If present warming trends continue, all
glaciers in Glacier National Park could be gone by 2030.
● Because of global warming, the glaciers of the
Ruwenzori range in Uganda are in massive retreat. The
Bering Glacier, North America's largest glacier, has lost 7
miles of its length, while losing 20-25% of parts of the
glacier.
● The melting is accelerating. The Lewis Glacier on Mt.
Kenya (In Kenya) has lost 40% of its mass during the
period 1963-1987 or at a much faster clip than during
1899-1963.

H Graham BSc PGCE

 Melting ice and
rising sea level

Ice shelves of the South Pole have

Receding high mountain glaciers partly separated and are collapsing.
(NASA)
Melting Arctic Sea Ice
● According to a report by
Norwegian scientists, the arctic
sea ice in about 50 years could
disappear entirely each summer.
Researchers at the Nansen
Environmental and Remote
Sensing Center based their
predictions on satellite pictures.
These pictures showed that the
Arctic winter icescapes decreased
by 6% (a Texas-size area) during
the last 20 years

H Graham BSc PGCE

Of course the physical environmental change will
lead to changes in the biosphere – including our
society.
Rising Sea Level in Florida

H Graham BSc PGCE

If temperature can change, so do other meteorological
and environmental variables.

● The change in
temperature may cause
a change in
precipitation.
● Vegetation may also
change in response to
temperature and
precipitation changes.
● And there will be
changes in the animal
and human world in
response to these
environmental changes.

Source: NOAA
More Frequent Extreme Weather
● The potential for floods and droughts is increasing."....... the
heating from increased greenhouse gases enhances the
hydrological cycle and increases the risk for stronger,
longer-lasting or more intense droughts, and heavier rainfall
events and flooding, even if these phenomena occur for natural
reasons. Evidence, although circumstantial, is widespread
across the United States
Feedback Effect
● The climate system is very complicated. A change
in one component of the system may cause
changes in other components.

● Sometimes the changes in other components

enhance the initial change, then we say that these
changes have positive feedback to the system.

● If the changes result in the reduction of the

original change, then they have negative
feedback.
An example of positive feedback

● When the climate becomes warmer (either due

to the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere or
other unknown mechanisms), the ocean may
also become warmer. A warmer ocean has lower
solubility of CO2 and hence will release more CO2
into the atmosphere. This may cause the climate
to become even warmer than before. Thus the
dependence of solubility of CO2 on temperature
has a positive feedback on the climate system.
An example of negative feedback
● Consider a clear region over the ocean. Since
there is no cloud, the sun shines on the ocean
surface, causing it to warm up. This makes this
part of the ocean warmer than other parts and
the air over it tends to rise (causing convection).
As we have learned before, rising air expands
and cools, causing clouds to form. The formation
of clouds will block out the sun and the solar
heating of the ocean surface will cease. The
surface will start to cool down. Thus the cloud
formation due to surface heating and convection
is a negative feedback to the climate system.
 POSITIVE NEGATIVE

More water vapor

Increased CO2
& other changes
+

Higher temperature
+ Increased cloud cover
More CO2

More reflected solar radiation

–

More absorbed infrared radiation

Lower temperature
+
+
Higher temperature Less water vapor
+
More water vapor
Some examples of criticisms
● There are evidence showing
that the current temperature
isn’t really that warm compared
to what was two to three
thousand years ago. The figure
to the right shows that the
temperature of Sagaso Sea
fluctuates in a range of ~ 3.6°C.
● Also the “trend” depends on the
data sets and the section of
data you select to examine –
see the lower chart. By using a
different data set (here the
satellite microwave sounding)
and selecting a suitable section
(for example, 1978-1998) you
can actually show that there
was a cooling, not warming.
Source: Robinson et al.
(1998)
There are also evidence showing that the solar activity
seems to have some influence on atmospheric
temperature. But there are many questions here.
Especially on how and how much.
 Carbon Dioxide Cycle
The mechanism by which Earth self-regulates its temperature is
called the carbon dioxide cycle, or the CO2 cycle for short.
Starting with the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere:
● Volcanoes outgas CO into the atmosphere.
2
● Atmospheric carbon dioxide dissolves in the oceans.
● At the same time, rainfall erodes rocks on Earth’s continents
and rivers carry the eroded minerals to the oceans.
● In the oceans, the eroded minerals combine with dissolved
carbon dioxide and fall to the ocean floor, making carbonate
rocks such as limestone.
● Over millions of years, the conveyor belt of plate tectonics
carries the carbonate rocks to subduction zones, and
subduction carries them down into the mantle.
● As they are pushed deeper into the mantle, some of the
subducted carbonate rock melts and releases its carbon
dioxide, which then outgasses back into the atmosphere
through volcanoes.
The CO2 Cycle
The CO2 cycle acts as a thermostat that regulates the temperature of
the Earth…
If Earth warms up a bit, then
● carbonate minerals form in the oceans at a higher
rate.
● The rate at which the oceans dissolve CO2 gas
increases, pulling CO2 out of the atmosphere.
● The reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration leads
to a weakened greenhouse effect that counteracts
the initial warming and cools the planet back
down.
If Earth cools a bit,
● carbonate minerals form more slowly in the
oceans.
● The rate at which the oceans dissolve CO2 gas
decreases, allowing the CO2 released by volcanism
to build back up in the atmosphere.
● The increased CO2 concentration strengthens the
greenhouse effect and warms the planet back up
Ocean Circulation

● One hypothesis about climate change is

that as the Earth as a whole warms, ocean
circulation in the Atlantic will change to
produce cooling in Western Europe. In its
most extreme form, this hypothesis has
advancing European ice sheets triggering
a new ice age.
Clouds
● Clouds have an enormous impact on
Earth's climate, reflecting back into space
about one third of the total amount of
sunlight that hits the Earth's atmosphere.
As the atmosphere warms, cloud patterns
may change, altering the amount of
sunlight absorbed by the Earth. Because
clouds are such powerful climate actors,
even small changes in average cloud
amounts, locations, and type could speed
warming, slow it, or even reverse it.
Aerosols, dust, smoke, and
soot.
● These come from both human and natural
sources. They also have very different
effects on climate. Sulfate aerosols, which
result from burning coal, biomass, and
volcanic eruptions, tend to cool the Earth.
Increasing industrial emissions of sulfates
is believed to have caused a cooling trend
in the Northern Hemisphere from the
1940s to the 1970s.