Assessing

Post-Secondary
Education Needs
in the West Shore
Responding to Growing Demand
Submitted by Royal Roads University, March 25, 2019
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................................................3

INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................................... 6

THE WEST SHORE COMMUNITIES ........................................................................................................... 8

Population Data and Forecasts............................................................................................................... 9

Labour Force Participation and Projections............................................................................................11

WEST SHORE EDUCATION PROFILE......................................................................................................... 12

School District 62 Graduation Rates...................................................................................................... 13

Post-Secondary Transition Rates........................................................................................................... 13

Grade 12 Graduate Learner Profile.........................................................................................................14

Employed Learner Profile......................................................................................................................14

Community Support for a Local Post-Secondary Option........................................................................ 15

Current PSE Options for West Shore Students....................................................................................... 16

Potential Impacts of Expanded Post-Secondary Education in the West Shore....................................... 16

BARRIERS TO POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION IN THE WEST SHORE.................................................... 18

Tuition Fees........................................................................................................................................... 19

Distance and Commute Times.............................................................................................................. 20

Housing Costs....................................................................................................................................... 21

Affordability.......................................................................................................................................... 21

PROJECTED WEST SHORE SKILLS SHORTAGE.........................................................................................22

BENEFITS OF A POST-SECONDARY CAMPUS.......................................................................................... 24

A NEW APPROACH TO UNDERGRADUATE EDUCATION ..........................................................................25

SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATION......................................................................................................28

Next Steps............................................................................................................................................29

REFERENCES............................................................................................................................................. 30

APPENDICES..............................................................................................................................................32
Executive Summary
The world is changing and so are the skills needed by British Columbia’s students. Rapid developments in
technology, the need to address climate change, the retirement of the Baby Boomer generation and the
evolution of the gig economy are all significant influences on future labour market projections and needs.
More jobs than ever before will require some kind of post-secondary education.

While local and regional economies can experience major economic shifts rapidly, it takes time for people
to obtain a credential, up-skill or re-skill themselves. It will be important for governments, post-sec-
ondary institutions, Indigenous communities and stakeholders to work collaboratively and implement
long-term planning to ensure the skills needed in the future are being provided today. One of the most
significant determinants for obtaining a post-secondary education is proximity to a university, college or
training institute. Having a local training option is an important support not only for students, but also for
sustainable community growth.

In March 2018, the Ministry of Advanced Education, Skills and Training provided Royal Roads University
(RRU) with funding to “support planning for a new West Shore campus in consultation with the Ministry.”
RRU subsequently invited representatives from the University of Victoria, Camosun College, School District
#62 (SD 62), the Sc’ianew Nation and local governments to participate in the development of this report.

The Terms of Reference provided by the BC government to the Steering Committee and Working Com-
mittee members provided further clarification. Additional objectives for the project include: articulating
the current unmet need for post-secondary education in the West Shore, identifying local post-secondary
accessibility issues, reflecting changing student expectations and proposing a range of potential options
to address these issues. Government also requested that any recommended solution be a “cost-effective
pilot solution that could be deployed to other communities.”

The West Shore is a region on southern Vancouver Island with a population of 77,460 consisting of mu-
nicipalities, First Nations communities and electoral districts west of Victoria to Port Renfrew. According
to Statistics Canada, the West Shore is one of the fastest growing regions in Canada, having experienced
a population increase of 49% between 2001 and 2016, and projected growth of 27% over the next decade.
This rapid growth is also disproportionately skewed towards a younger demographic; the region has a
larger share of persons under the age of 15 (17.1%) compared to the provincial average (14.9%). The need
for post-secondary education services in the region will continue to increase over time.

Current student data, projections by SD 62 and modelling completed to inform this report further
demonstrate the growing need for an additional post-secondary option in the West Shore to support the
community and foster a strong, sustainable regional economy. Six-year high school completion rates are
currently at a 20-year high in SD 62 (76.3% in 2016-17) and have generally trended upward since 1999-20
(63.1%), but sit below the province-wide average of 84%. Similarly, direct transition rates of high school
graduates to all types of post-secondary institutions in SD 62 lag behind the provincial average. The five-
year (2011-12 to 2015-16) historic average is 43.2% compared to 52.5% in all of BC.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  3

 Additionally, West Shore high school graduates are transitioning to university at much lower rates than
their counterparts in other parts of BC. Just 17.2% of graduates are attending university, almost half the
provincial average of 34.1%.

Currently there are limited local options for SD 62 graduates looking to continue their education locally.
Royal Roads University does not offer a Year 1-2 program for domestic undergraduate students. The Uni-
versity of Victoria and Camosun College (Interurban Campus and Lansdowne Campus) currently receive
the majority of SD 62 graduates, but neither are geographically situated to ideally serve students who
wish to stay in their home West Shore communities. Research has shown that post-secondary participa-
tion rates are higher when there is a local option available.

While the cost of post-secondary education is a key barrier facing all students, West Shore learners face
additional challenges that increase cost pressures. Access to affordable housing near UVic and Camosun
campuses is extremely difficult to find and often unavailable, although the implementation of various
actions to address the housing crisis by the government and construction of additional student housing
may increase rental stock which will help alleviate the issue over time.

If affordable housing close to campus cannot be obtained, West Shore students often choose to continue
to live at home to manage costs. First-year post-secondary students rarely have their own personal vehi-
cle and typically need to rely on public transportation. Depending on where in the West Shore a student
resides, daily commute times to campuses vary between just over an hour to nearly four hours. Not only
are long commute times a significant deterrent to enter post-secondary education, but they also make it
very challenging for students to find employment to support the cost of their education.

The BC Labour Market Outlook (2017) estimates that more than 900,000 job openings will be created
over the next decade, with more than 78% requiring some form of post-secondary education or training.
There is also a growing gap between the skills the workforce has and the skills that will be needed to
fill job openings. Action is needed to encourage West Shore learners (both school-leavers and adults) to
participate in post-secondary education to avoid a future skills shortage.

There is an opportunity for the BC government to address the challenges of accessing post-secondary
education in the West Shore with an innovative, transformative education model that could serve as a
model for the province.

The South Island post-secondary institutions and SD 62 are exploring new approaches to undergraduate
education that emphasize systems thinking, as well as interdisciplinary, experiential and problem and
project-based learning. This would include a significant focus on field study and workplace experience to
better develop learning and career pathways, and build students’ capacity to become changemakers in
their workplaces and communities.

This report concludes that West Shore learners (SD 62 graduates and adults pursuing advanced educa-
tion) would benefit from a new local post-secondary education option. Based on key factors including
current high school graduation transition rates and the proximity of other options, a new undergraduate
post-secondary campus with an innovative delivery model would best meet local need. A new West Shore
campus would also provide a new, viable option for students from the rest of the South Island and Capital
Regional District.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  4

 While there are arguably significant benefits in expanding post-secondary access on the West Shore,
there are a number of challenges which need to be acknowledged.

First, there is a need to better understand how the various barriers such as distance, transportation/
commute times and housing (cost and scarcity) interact and how current actions to address these issues
might affect interest in new post-secondary options. Second, the assumptions underlying population
growth forecasts, graduation and transition rates, and enrolment projections will require further exam-
ination to ensure that the anticipated demand is realistic.

And finally, given anticipated demand, a detailed analysis of the operational viability of the initiative will
be critical to ensure that there is capacity to offer high-quality programming (and the necessary ancillary
services) with the breadth and depth that students and adult learners will expect and need.

If the provincial government wishes to proceed with an expansion of post-secondary education on the
West Shore, the appropriate next step is to provide funding for a comprehensive business case. The busi-
ness case would include a comprehensive academic curriculum designed in collaboration with SD 62 and
the South Island post-secondary institutions, an identification of infrastructure needs, site selection and
design, and financial analysis and timelines.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  5

Introduction
Royal Roads University, (RRU) was asked by the BC provincial government to conduct an analysis of
post-secondary education in the West Shore region. To support this report, the Ministry of Advanced
Education, Skills and Training (MAEST) provided a one-time grant of $250,000 to RRU in March 2018 to
“support planning for a new West Shore campus.”

Labour market forecasts project a growing gap between the skills needed for future job openings and
the skills currently possessed by workers. Locally, there has been growing interest in seeing the estab-
lishment of a new post-secondary institution in the West Shore. There are currently limited options for
West Shore high school graduates to take first or second year courses, a gap residents, elected officials,
Indigenous communities and stakeholder groups believe needs to be addressed as the region’s popula-
tion continues to increase.

RRU invited representatives from the University of Victoria, Camosun College, School District #62 (SD
62), the Sc’ianew (Cheanuh) First Nation and local governments to participate in the development of this
report to ensure that a broad range of voices and perspectives were included.

MAEST’s stated objectives (Appendix A.i – Steering Committee Terms of Reference) for this report are:

· Identify post-secondary accessibility issues experienced by learners and potential

learners in the West Shore

· Conduct a needs assessment to determine the scale and scope of any issues identified

· Propose a range of possible interventions (initiatives) that could address these issues.

A Steering Committee (Appendix A.i) was formed to support the development of this report, comprised of:

Philip Steenkamp – President and Vice-Chancellor, Royal Roads University – Chair

Allan Cahoon – President and Vice-Chancellor, Royal Roads University – Past Chair

Mayor Stew Young, City of Langford

Ravi Parmar - Chair, Sooke School District #62 (or designate)

Scott Stinson – Superintendent and CEO, Sooke School District #62

Shannon Baskerville – Deputy Minister, Ministry of Advanced Education,

Skills and Training (or designate)

Jamie Cassels – President and Vice-Chancellor, University of Victoria

Sherri Bell – President, Camosun College

Russ Chipps – Chief, Sc’ianew (Cheanuh) First Nation - Beecher Bay

Mitzi Dean (Observer) – MLA Esquimalt-Metchosin

INTRODUCTION ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  6

 MAEST supplied additional guidance that any proposal to the provincial government for funding must
address the following:

• Clearly articulate the unmet need

• Provide innovative options and solutions to meeting the need

• Reflect changing student expectations for post-secondary education

• Be adaptive to the changing nature of work and society

• Be a cost-effective pilot solution that could be deployed to other communities

• A strong enough case for government to consider providing funding

Additionally, a Working Committee (Appendix A.ii – Working Committee Terms of Reference) was estab-
lished primarily to develop a needs assessment for post-secondary in the West Shore and to develop options
for collaborative approaches to address the needs. The committee subsequently oversaw three workshops
and the development of research reports that have helped to inform the findings of this report, (Appendix B –
Workshop and Research Reports), including:

i. School District 62 Stakeholder Survey Report

ii. Workshop 1 – Needs Assessment Research

iii. Workshop 2 – Academic Visioning

iv. Workshop 3 – Partnership Planning

v. Background Research Report

vi. Stakeholder Interviews Report

vii. Enrolment Projections Report

In addition to the primary and desktop research, meetings were held with West Shore mayors including
Maja Tait (Sooke), Rob Martin (Colwood), John Ranns (Metchosin), Ken Williams (Highlands), and Mike
Hicks (Director, Juan de Fuca Electoral Area). Mike Reilly, the president of the West Shore Chamber of Com-
merce, and Kevin Albers, CEO of M’akola Housing, were also consulted for their perspectives.

This report summarizes high-school graduation levels, transition rates to post-secondary education, and
population and demographic projections. It also analyzes the future demand for workers, and the skills they
will need to fill newly created jobs and openings created by retirements. Additionally, consultation with
students, parents and local educators was conducted to provide the perspectives of people currently living,
learning and working in the West Shore.

The educational partners in this project also participated in an academic visioning exercise to develop a
new, collaborative model to best position West Shore students transitioning from high school to post-sec-
ondary for long-term success by giving them the attributes, skills, experience and knowledge needed to
pursue their chosen career. The resulting interdisciplinary, problem-based and career-focused model pro-
posed could be implemented on the West Shore and deployed to other BC communities in the future.

This report clearly identifies the need to expand post-secondary access on the West Shore and proposes an
innovative delivery model that will equip students and those already in the workforce with the skills they
will need to thrive in the emerging economy.

INTRODUCTION ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  7

The West Shore
Communities

SD 62 serves West Shore municipalities and includes the ancestral lands of several Indigenous Nations
including T’Souke (Sooke), Pacheedaht (Jordan River), Sc’ianew (Beecher Bay), Xwsepsum (Esquimalt),
and Lkwungen (Songhees).

The West Shore refers to a geographic area located west of Victoria on the southern tip of Vancouver
Island. It consists of the cities of Colwood, Langford and View Royal; the districts of Highlands,
Metchosin and Sooke and the Juan de Fuca Electoral Area. The area also includes the ancestral lands of
several Indigenous Nations including T’Souke (Sooke), Pacheedaht (Jordan River), Sc’ianew (Beecher Bay),
Xwsepsum (Esquimalt) and Lkwungen (Songhees).

SD 62 provides K-12 education in the West Shore communities. As a result of sustained growth in the com-
munity, new and expanded secondary school spaces are planned throughout the area.

THE WEST SHORE COMMUNITIES ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  8
 POPULATION DATA AND FORECASTS
According to Statistics Canada, the West Shore is one of the fastest growing regions in Canada, having
experienced a population increase of 49% between 2001 and 2016 (Appendix B.v “Post-Secondary Educa-
tion in the West Shore: Background Research Report”). Additional growth of 27% over the next decade is pro-
jected (“Long Range Facilities Plan 2018 Update, Sooke School District,” Matrix Planning Associates, 2018).

As the West Shore community has grown, its demographics have begun to skew younger. The region has
a larger share of persons under the age of 15 (17.1%) compared to the provincial average (14.9%)(Appendix
B.v). Additionally, the community’s population of people aged over 70 is much lower, at 8.2%, than that of
both BC’s 11.1% and Canada’s 10.4%. This stands in stark contrast to Victoria, where 24% of the popula-
tion is over the age of 65 (Statistics Canada, 2016 Census profile).

Between 2011 and 2016, the 0-to-14 age group grew by 11%, indicating the need for post-secondary educa-
tion services in the region is likely to increase (Appendix B.v).

West Shore Population Growth and Projections

120000

100000

80000
Residents

60000

40000

20000

0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

The total population of the West Shore is projected to grow from 52,000 in 2001 to 111,000 in 2031 (Matrix 2018).

The West Shore includes the five fastest growing communities in the Capital Regional District. The fastest
include the City of Langford, which had a population increase of 20.9% from 2011 to 2016, and the District
of Sooke which experienced population growth of 13.7% in that same time period. This growth will be
propelled primarily by a combination of the expanding economic and employment base of Victoria, the
preference of future residents to seek more affordable suburban locations for housing (Appendix B.v), and
continued development in West Shore communities.

THE WEST SHORE COMMUNITIES ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  9
 0-14 Population Growth
30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Population & projected growth of 0-14 demographic in the West Shore 2001 to 2041 (Statistics Canada and MetroEconomics).

As the West Shore community grows, the number of students and high school graduates will also increase.
The five-year average number of graduates between 2012/13 and 2016/17 in SD 62 was 792 students (BC
Ministry of Education, 2017). In 2022/23, the projected number of graduates is expected to be 910 stu-
dents annually, and by 2027/28 the school district expects to be graduating 1,108 students each year, an
increase of 29% (SD 62, 2018).

In 2016/17, 106 graduates identified as Indigenous Canadians. This is projected to increase to 166 Indigenous
student graduates by 2028 (Appendix B.v).

Overall, the West Shore population aged 20-64 is less likely to have completed any form of post-second-
ary diploma, certificate or degree (60.7%) than the BC (63.9%) or Canada-wide (64.8%) average. (Appen-
dix B.v). This West Shore demographic slightly outperforms the provincial and national averages when
it comes to apprenticeship and trades certificates or diplomas, but has significantly fewer diplomas,
certificates or degrees from a university compared to the rest of BC and Canada.

West Shore BC Canada

NO CERTIFICATE, DIPLOMA OR DEGREE  9.1% 9.6% 11.5%

SECONDARY (HIGH) SCHOOL DIPLOMA OR EQUIVALENCY CERTIFICATE  30.2% 26.5% 23.7%

POSTSECONDARY CERTIFICATE, DIPLOMA OR DEGREE  60.7% 63.9% 64.8%

Highest level of education achieved by residents aged 20-64 (as a percentage). West Shore residents have a lower rate of post-
secondary certificates, diplomas or degrees than the BC or Canadian average. Among residents with a post-secondary credential,
the West Shore has a higher share of apprenticeship/trades certificate or diploma (11.4%) compared to the BC average (9.1%), and
a lower proportion of bachelor level or above university credentials (20.5% compared to 29.9% BC average).
Nine percent of West Shore residents and 14% of the region’s Indigenous population do not have a high school
diploma (or equivalent).

THE WEST SHORE COMMUNITIES ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  10
 LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION AND PROJECTIONS
During the span of 2016 to 2041 there will be a number of factors that affect the job market, including pop-
ulation growth, the number of retirees and the strength of the economy. As the suburban population of
West Shore grows, the necessary services that support the surrounding area will also increase. From 2016
to 2041, the population is projected to grow by 59,000, with the labour force growing by 32,000. With an
influx of potential workers, many industries will also expand, with jobs in public administration, health
care and social assistance, retail trade, and scientific and technical services projected to make the largest
gains in employment (Appendix B.v).

While the labour market is currently strong in the West Shore area, the changing economy will require
higher levels of education. As higher skilled jobs increase, the West Shore will need post-secondary
education opportunities not just for high school graduates, but also for adults who will need additional
education as their jobs are eliminated.

The West Shore is one of the fastest growing regions in Canada and is anticipated to maintain growth for
at least the next decade. The data projections indicate there is a growing need for post-secondary educa-
tion services in the community.

West Shore Labour Market Activity 2001-2041

150000

120000 Total population

Labour force source population
90000 Labour force
Employment (place of residence)
60000 Employment (place of work)

30000

0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

(Statistics Canada and MetroEconomics).

THE WEST SHORE COMMUNITIES ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  11
West Shore
Education Profile

18 Elementary schools
4 Middle schools

3 Secondary schools
1 Adult/ Alternative school

Source: SD 62

SD 62 serves approximately 10,600 students in the communities of Sooke, Port Renfrew, Metchosin, High-
lands, Langford and Colwood. SD 62 has projected increasing secondary school attendance and thereby
graduates, in alignment with projected population growth.

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

PROJECTED 3266 3410 3518 3711 3792 3909 3989 4097 4207 4298

INCREASE OVER BASELINE* 187 331 439 632 713 830 910 1018 1128 1219

TOTAL POTENTIAL GRADS 653 682 703 742 758 782 798 819 841 860

Projected Population Growth for School District (SD 62) Based on September 2018 Actuals

The projected increase in high school students in the table above was provided by SD 62 based on actual
enrolments as of September 2018. The increase over baseline was calculated using the baseline of 3,079
students. Total potential graduates represents a projection of total in-year graduates using the five-year
average of 20% of total high-school enrolment.

SD 62 GRADUATION RATES
SD 62’s 2016-17 graduation rate of 76.3% was well below the BC average (84%) and the 86.8% graduation
rate of neighbouring SD 61 (Government of B.C., March 2017).

Historically, SD 62 has underperformed for six-year high school completion rates when compared against
SD 61 and B.C. averages. However, SD 62’s graduation rates have generally improved since 2000 and
currently sit at a 20-year high. SD 62 also has established a goal to improve completion rates to 82% by
2020-21.

WEST SHORE EDUCATION PROFILE ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  12
 Completion and Graduation Rates
100

80

60

BC
40
SD 62

BC Indigenous
20
SD62 Indigenous

0
2005/ 2006/ 2007/ 2008/ 2009/ 2010/ 2011/ 2012/ 2013/ 2014/ 2015/ 2016/
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SD 62’s high school graduation rates are below the provincial average.
However, Indigenous students have consistently graduated above the BC average for Indigenous students.

Completion Rate
2009/2010 2011/2012 2014/2016 2015/2016 2016/2017

SOOKE   71.6% 73.3% 74.6% 76.1% 76.3%

GREATER VICTORIA 72.9% 77.8% 87.4% 87.2% 86.8%

POST-SECONDARY TRANSITION RATES

In the West Shore, transition rates from high school to post-secondary education are lower than the rest of BC.
In 2016/2017 SD 62 had 17.2% of graduates immediately attend university, compared to 34.1% province-wide
(Information provided by the Ministry of Education from the Student Transitions Project). As shown in the table,
the immediate transition rate to any type of BC public post-secondary institution for SD 62 in 2015/16 was 47%,
compared to 52.3% province-wide. An immediate entry is defined as directly entering a post-secondary institution
upon graduation from a secondary school, without taking time off to pursue personal or vocational activities.

WEST SHORE EDUCATION PROFILE ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  13
 Immediate Transition Rates to BC Public Post-Secondary Education by Region and
Grade 12 Graduation Year Immediate Entry to BC Public Post-Secondary Education

Grade 12
BC Victoria (SD 61) SD 62
Graduation Year

2011/12 52.7% 50% 41%

2012/13 52.6% 46% 43%

2013/14 52.4% 50% 41%

2014/15 52.6% 52% 44%

2015/16 52.3% 48% 47%

SD 62’s post-secondary transition rate is improving,

but trails the performance of SD 61 (Victoria) and the BC average.

GRADE 12 GRADUATE LEARNER PROFILE

In the West Shore community, the traditional-aged Post-Secondary Education Learner Group (15 – 24 years
of age) consists of roughly the same number of males and females, with a historically lower direct transition
rate to post-secondary (even lower among Indigenous population) compared to the BC average. This demo-
graphic in the West Shore is also more likely to have a job (compared to BC or Canadian averages), and their
parents are less likely to have post-secondary education.

Graduating students in the West Shore are also concerned about the cost of living away from home to
attend a post-secondary institution. They identify their main motivation to attend post-secondary as
career-based, but find it difficult to connect post-secondary programs and achievement to a potential
career and feel pressure about making the “right” choices about education. For some students in the region
(Indigenous communities and the District of Sooke), the closest commutable post-secondary options are
hours away and require a vehicle/transportation for access. Students also have concerns about lack of
support at post-secondary institutions related to mental health, family and financial.

EMPLOYED LEARNER PROFILE

The Employed Learner Group in the West Shore also consists of roughly the same number of males and
females, are employed at a slightly higher rate than in the rest of BC or Canada, and may have children in
SD 62. They are likely to be employed in a job sector that is predicted to shrink and almost half of this group
do not have any post-secondary education versus BC and Canadian averages.

This group is part of an economic boom in the region, which along with lower cost of living may have attracted
them to the area. They are almost as likely to have to work outside the region as within the West Shore.

WEST SHORE EDUCATION PROFILE ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  14
 COMMUNITY SUPPORT FOR A LOCAL POST-SECONDARY OPTION
With more young families living in the West Shore community, more residents are starting to consider
post-secondary education. A recent survey of both students and parents conducted to evaluate community
interest and perceived need for post-secondary education in the West Shore area, demonstrated that most
parents and their children are planning for post-secondary education. With 78% of students and 93% of par-
ent respondents expecting that the student will attend post-secondary education after secondary school, it
is clear that education is top of mind in the West Shore community (Appendix B.i). As more families start to
research post-secondary options, the top three considerations for both students and parents in choosing a
post-secondary institution are:

• Affordable
Tuition Fees

• Offering a
Program of Interest

• Remaining in the
Local Community

There has been ongoing community support to bring a new post-secondary option to the West Shore
region. The sustained and projected growth of the area further emphasizes the changing needs of
the community.

“ We’ve been looking at ways to advance the delivery of

post-secondary education and training to programs in the
West Shore for a number of years. It makes a lot of sense
to give students pursuing a post-secondary education the
opportunity to do that in the community they live in. ”
- Stew Young, Mayor of Langford, (CHEK News, April 17, 2018)

WEST SHORE EDUCATION PROFILE ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  15
 CURRENT OPTIONS SERVICING THE WEST SHORE
Current post-secondary options accessible from the West Shore include the University of Victoria, Camosun
College and Royal Roads University. These institutions offer a wide variety of programs, including certificates;
diplomas, bachelor, masters and doctoral degrees, and continuing education programs. However, apart from
Royal Roads University which does not offer first and second year undergraduate education, the campuses are
not easily accessible for students in the West Shore. Recently retired Sooke School District Superintendent
Jim Cambridge confirms there is a long commute to Camosun College or University of Victoria: “It’s typically an
hour to an hour-and-a-half transit ride each way and, to lots of students that’s a significant barrier.” (Chek News)

Historically, the vast majority of students from SD 62 have attended Camosun College, with 73% of Grade
12 graduates in 2010/2011 attending Camosun, and 14% attending University of Victoria. Other institutions
attended by SD 62 graduates include Vancouver Island University (2.5%), Thompson Rivers University (3.1%)
and Kwantlen Polytechnic University (0.9%).

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF EXPANDED POST-SECONDARY

EDUCATION IN THE WEST SHORE
As the West Shore community grows, its education needs at all levels are growing with it. SD 62 has seen an
increase in graduates in recent years, but is not experiencing a proportional improvement in graduates tran-
sitioning to post-secondary. While there are post-secondary options in the Greater Victoria area, they are
not easily accessible to students in the West Shore. Students and parents in the West Shore area indicate
the impact of a local campus will be very positive for the community overall, and would allow students to
stay closer to home to obtain a post-secondary education.

Modelling was completed for this report to project the uptake and impact of a potential new post-secondary
campus in the West Shore. Within the first few years, it is anticipated hundreds of students would be taking
undergraduate courses in the West Shore, with the total number of students at the campus reaching more
than 1,000 after seven years of operations. This increase in capacity to locally educate the workforce will be
of significant benefit to the region.

WEST SHORE EDUCATION PROFILE ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  16
 Projected enrolment at a new West Shore
post-secondary campus
Academic Part
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Y2 Adm Y3 Adm Total
Year Time

2021-2022 154 0 0 4 158

2022-2023 188 123 5 0 8 319

2023-2024 208 156 106 7 20 16 486

2024-2025 224 174 139 101 8 30 20 658

2025-2026 245 187 162 132 9 40 32 758

2026-2027 269 205 181 153 10 50 38 846

2027-2028 284 226 193 172 10 50 40 915

2028-2029 356 237 208 184 10 50 40 1025

Projected enrolment at a new West Shore post-secondary campus.

The model assumes an 80% retention between Y1-Y2, 70% from Y2-Y3 and 95% between Y3-Y4.

NOTES:
Y2 Adm: Admission with credit into year 2
Y3 Adm: Admission with credit into year 3
Y2 Adm are direct admits to Year 2 (and included in the Year 2 column)
Y3 Adm are direct admits to Year 3 (and included in the Year 3 column)
Part-time: employed learners registered full-time, expressed as full-time count
Assumptions: 20% International; 20% repatriation from other post-secondary institutions due to
increased convenience; 10% out of district

WEST SHORE EDUCATION PROFILE ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  17
Barriers to Post-Secondary
Education in the West Shore
West Shore high school graduates (43.2%) are transitioning directly to post-secondary education (PSE) at a
lower rate than the provincial average (52.5%). The gap is much more pronounced for university transition,
with just 17.2% of West Shore graduates attending university compared to the province-wide average of
34.1%

To identify the specific barriers facing West Shore students, Academica conducted online stakeholder
surveys and in-person workshops (Appendix B.i and Appendix B.ii) with students, parents, educators and
community members.

A total of 795 valid surveys were completed by students from Belmont Secondary School, Royal Bay Second-
ary School, West Shore Learning Centre and Edward Milne Community School. More than half of the respon-
dents (59%) were from Royal Bay Secondary, and 65% were students in Grades 9 or 10, potential entrants to
post-secondary education in 2021/22. Twelve percent identified as Indigenous (Appendix B.i).

Five hundred and fifty parents of students from SD 62’s four secondary schools also responded to the
survey. The participating parents were mostly women (76%) between the ages of 40-49 (55%) with the larg-
est percentage living in Langford (40%). Additionally, 73% identified as having completed post-secondary
education (Appendix B.i). This is higher than the general average of 60.7% of West Shore residents between
the ages of 20-64 with a post-secondary certificate, degree or diploma (Appendix B.v).

Despite the lower PSE participation rates in the West Shore, the survey results found strong interest in
post-secondary education amongst the community’s students and parents. Seventy-eight percent of the
student group said that they planned to attend PSE at some point. It is notable that just 4% of students
definitively said that they did not plan on pursuing post-secondary education; the remaining 18% said they
“didn’t know” (Appendix B.i). Among the 131 total Grade 12 students who participated in the study, 55%
planned to attend PSE in the upcoming fall, 34% said “yes, but not right away” and only 2% said “no”.

PSE Plans – by Grade

Plans to Pursue PSE
GRADE
Total Grade 9 Grade 10 Grade 11 Grade 12 Other

795 267 244 152 131 1

YES, THIS FALL 16% 3% 8% 17% 55%

YES, BUT NOT RIGHT AWAY 62% 61% 72% 70% 34% 100%

NO 4% 6% 3% 4% 2%

DON’T KNOW 18% 30% 17% 9% 8%

BARRIERS TO POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION IN THE WEST SHORE ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  18
 Institution Type
GRADE
Total Grade 9 Grade 10 Grade 11 Grade 12 Other

615 171 194 132 117 1

UNIVERSITY 65% 57% 68% 73% 60% 100%

COLLEGE 32% 19% 29% 36% 50%

PRIVATE CAREER COLLEGE 5% 3% 9% 5% 3%

OTHER 2% 2% 1% 2% 4%

DON’T KNOW 19% 33% 20% 14% 5%

High school students intend to enter post-secondary institutions at a much higher rate than is
occurring after graduation. Removing barriers for West Shore students will increase participation.

The results of the student survey are incongruent with historic data. The five-year (2011-12 to 2015-16)
historic average for SD 62 graduates transitioning directly from high school to PSE is 43.2%.

Unsurprisingly, parents were more optimistic about their children attending post-secondary. The over-
whelming majority of parents (93%) expect their child to pursue PSE, with less than 1% saying they didn’t
anticipate their child pursuing PSE.

The research results provide a snapshot of the strong interest and value the West Shore community has in
post-secondary education. The responses also identified the factors that are preventing actual PSE partici-
pation rates from SD 62 from matching the expectations of local students and parents.

While there is a broad range of factors and personal situations that influence individual decisions, three
related issues emerged as the most significant barriers: tuition fees, housing costs and distance.

AFFORDABILITY

Tuition Commute Housing

TUITION FEES
The high cost of post-secondary education was the most widely cited barrier, with 39% of students saying
that finances were the obstacle most likely to prevent them from attending post-secondary. Twenty per-
cent of SD 62 students who self-identified as not planning to pursue PSE said, it is too expensive. Similarly,
47% of students planning to attend PSE said that affordable tuition fees was a deciding factor in which
institution they would attend.

BARRIERS TO POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION IN THE WEST SHORE ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  19
 BC has taken steps over time to try to mitigate direct and indirect costs of post-secondary education.
Since 2005, tuition increases have been capped at 2% per year. The provincial government announced in
February 2019 that it was eliminating interest on BC student loans moving forward.

During in-person workshops, students also expressed anecdotal concerns related to the cost of PSE, including:
· Too much debt after completing PSE
· The cost of education added increased pressure to make the ‘right’ choices
· Might end up with a degree or qualification that they wouldn’t use
· Do not want to end up doing a job they don’t like after spending so much money on
post-secondary education

DISTANCE AND COMMUTE TIMES

One of the most important decisions a student can make to reduce the overall costs associated with pur-
suing a post-secondary education is to continue to live at home. However, aside from the first and second
year university transfer courses offered by Camosun College at Belmont Secondary School, there are cur-
rently no post-secondary institutions locally offering classes for first and second year university students.
SD 62 high school graduates, or adults seeking to continue their education, must commute to one of three
existing post-secondary campuses in the Capital Regional District (CRD):
· University of Victoria
· Camosun College (Interurban Campus)

· Camosun College (Lansdowne Campus)

Research shows that distance to a physical campus is a barrier to education (Frenette, 2002). A study con-
ducted by the Government of Canada regarding what influences young Canadians to pursue post-second-
ary studies, found that “students who lived too far from the closest university to make the trip every day
were distinctly less likely to go to university than students who lived close to a university” (Dubois, 2002).

Students in locations without university campuses were 21% less likely to enrol in universities, and fixed
costs of university studies were higher for rural students when compared to students in urban areas (Du-
bois, 2002). Additionally, students living beyond a manageable commuting distance are far less likely to
attend university than students living within commuting distance (Frenette, 2002).

The Association of University and Colleges of Canada found that Indigenous youth are disproportionally
affected by distance to post-secondary institutions due to the high rates of Indigenous youth who live in
rural areas. This same report noted that Indigenous Canadians with university degrees have higher em-
ployment rates and earn higher wages (AUCC, 2011).

The distance challenge for West Shore residents is exacerbated by the lengthy commute times to the
existing PSE options. The rapid population growth experienced in West Shore communities has created a
significant congestion problem on the section of Highway 1 that connects the region to the rest of the CRD.
The delayed and often unpredictable, commute times between the West Shore and the existing UVic and
Camosun campuses are a natural deterrent.

Most first and second year students do not own, or have reliable access to, a vehicle, forcing them to
depend primarily on public transit to get to and from school. A student travelling from the West Shore with
a class starting at 9 am and ending at 4 pm can expect unreasonably long commute times. According to BC
Transit Planner (2018), lengthy return travel times can be expected from Langford, Sooke and Metchosin to
the three post-secondary campuses in the CRD. The following figure summarizes the total travel time from
the West Shore to the existing campuses in the CRD using the BC Transit bus system.

BARRIERS TO POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION IN THE WEST SHORE ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  20
 Total Return Trip Transit Times (in hours)
UNIVERSITY OF CAMOSUN COLLEGE CAMOSUN COLLEGE
VICTORIA CAMPUS (INTERURBAN CAMPUS) (LANSDOWNE CAMPUS)

LANGFORD 2:27 1:09 2:20

SOOKE 3:50 2:42 3:50

METCHOSIN 3:29 3:29 3:50

Estimated round-trip commute times for students travelling from the West Shore to existing
post-secondary institutions in the CRD (BC Transit Corporation (2018)).

Long commute times can be frustrating and indirectly affect the affordability of post-secondary education.
Students who are spending multiple hours per day travelling to and from class are required to commit
additional hours beyond the classroom to support their education. They are limited in their ability to par-
ticipate in work-integrated learning opportunities or to defray costs of attending post-secondary institu-
tions through part-time employment. The Academica research (Appendix B.v) revealed that almost 60% of
student respondents plan to work while attending a post-secondary institution.

With the population in the West Shore projected to continue to increase, it is likely that travel times be-
tween the region and existing post-secondary campuses will only increase over the next decade, further
discouraging students.

HOUSING COSTS
West Shore learners for whom a long commute time is unmanageable must seek housing closer to their
desired post-secondary institution. For the majority of SD 62 graduates transitioning directly to PSE, that
has typically been either UVic or Camosun. There are currently several major barriers to accessing affordable
student housing in Victoria area. In their report titled “Victoria’s Student Housing Crisis” (Lotay & McGov-
ern, 2017), the Vancouver Island Public Interest Research Group (VIPIRG) concluded that “finding housing in
Victoria is extremely difficult due to high rent, lack of housing, high competition, and illegal and discriminato-
ry practices by property owners/managers”.

It was also found that lack of housing and housing conditions had a “negative impact on students’ financ-
es, mental health and diet” (Lotay & McGovern, 2017). In order to attend the post-secondary institutions,
students have resorted to staying in cars and other extreme measures to live near the university campuses
located in Saanich, leaving students at risk (Depner, 2017).

AFFORDABILITY
These barriers don’t exist in isolation from one another. If there was a West Shore option that enabled
students to continue to live with their parents or obtain local housing at a lower cost than what is avail-
able in Victoria, then the long commute and transit times to UVic and Camosun colleges cease to become
an issue. If the total cost of post-secondary education was more affordable, students may be able to
afford to spend more on housing – or have to work fewer hours , somewhat reducing the time crunch long
commutes exacerbate.

However, for West Shore students considering their options, these are all factors that significantly influ-
ence their decision to pursue a post-secondary education. Based on SD 62’s historic trend of below average
transition rates to PSE, it appears the barriers are having a material effect.

BARRIERS TO POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION IN THE WEST SHORE ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  21
Projected West Shore
Skills Shortage
Victoria and the West Shore are currently experiencing strong economic growth, including one of the
lowest unemployment rates in the country – 3.6% in January 2019 compared to BC’s 4.4% unemployment
rate and the 5.8% national average (Stats Canada, Labour Force Survey, January 2019). Among all other
Canadian metropolitan areas measured by Statistics Canada, only Kelowna (3.1%); Guelph, Ontario (1.9%);
Hamilton, Ontario (3.9%); and Quebec City, Quebec (3.8%) also had sub-4.0% unemployment during the
same period.

The strong demand for workers will continue. The provincial economy is projected to lead Canada in
growth in 2019 and 2020 (BC Budget 2019).

Strong provincial economic performance is expected to preserve BC’s tight labour market.

The BC Labour Market Outlook (Ministry of Advanced Education, 2017) estimates that 917,000 job open-
ings will be created over the next decade. These job openings will be a combination of new job creation and
job vacancies resulting from the aging labour force. Almost half (48%) of these job openings are expected
to be filled by young people entering the workforce for the very first time, and 78% of these 917,000 jobs
will require some form of post-secondary education or training. Thirty-six percent of all new openings will
need at least a bachelor’s, graduate or professional degree from a university.

PROJECTED WEST SHORE SKILLS SHORTAGE ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  22
 Education Requirements for Job Openings
in BC Between 2017 and 2027

High School and/ or

Occupation Specific Training

18%
36%
Diploma, Certificate or
Apprenticeship Training

Less than High School

42% Graduate, Bachelor’s or

First Professional Degree and/or
Significant Work Experience

4%
Breakdown of education requirements for all new job openings estimated between 2017 and 2027.
A total of 917,000 job openings are expected between 2017 and 2027, with 78% of these openings
requiring some form of post-secondary training. Image adjusted from the MAEST (2017).

Current West Shore high school graduate transition rates to post-secondary education do not meet the pro-
jected need for job openings in the next decade. The five-year (2011-12 to 2015-16) historic average is 43.2%
(compared to 52.5% in all of BC) The gap was smallest in 2015-16, the most recent year with data available,
when 47% of SD 62 graduates immediately entered post-secondary against the average of 52.3%. While this
may be a positive indicator, the single year of data reflects too small of a sample size to draw conclusions or
presume the improvement is a long-term upward trend.

Assuming the strongest recent PSE transition rate (47% in 2015-16) remains stable, it falls well short of the
78% of job openings expected to require some form of PSE training. Furthermore, the approximate 17% tran-
sition rate of West Shore students to university would meet less than half the expected need to fill the 36%
of new jobs requiring a university degree.

Based on the current trajectories of SD 62 graduate transition rates to PSE, and the types of jobs forecast to
be available, the West Shore will not have the skills needed to support a strong, sustainable economy in the
future. Without strategic investment and intervention now to address the barriers currently discouraging
SD 62 students from PSE, the region is potentially at risk of falling behind the rest of the province, despite its
booming growth and strong employment today.

PROJECTED WEST SHORE SKILLS SHORTAGE ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  23
Benefits of a Post-
Secondary Campus
IMPORTANCE OF A CAMPUS TO STUDENT LEARNING
Research has found that a physical campus in proximity to learners greatly impacts student learning and
success, particularly for younger and disadvantaged students and those in their first and second year of
post-secondary education (Kirk & Lewis 2015; Wilson & Allen, 2011; Mancini et al., 2015; and Xu & Jaggars,
2014; Frenette, 2002).

For most students, attending a physical campus is an indicator for success (Kirk & Lewis 2015; Wilson &
Allen, 2011; Mancini et. al, 2015; and Xu & Jaggars, 2014). A physical campus can provide the support systems
necessary for success, and research shows that a physical campus leads to lower likelihood of dropping out
and quicker program completion when compared to courses taken exclusively online (Mancini, et. al, 2015).

A CAMPUS AS A COMMUNITY PILLAR

Distance and commute times are key barriers for West Shore students considering a post-secondary educa-
tion. Research has demonstrated the clear benefit to students who have a local PSE campus in their home
community; placing a new campus in the West Shore could reasonably be assumed to increase high school-
to-post-secondary transition rates. A local campus will allow students to stay in their home community while
they continue their education, increasing the probability that they will also choose to work in the region.

There are many economic benefits for communities that host post-secondary campuses. The construction
of a new campus is a significant construction project that generates a short-term increase in employment
and an influx of new local spending that wouldn’t otherwise occur. Once operating, a PSE campus is a
significant new source of employment. In addition to encouraging SD 62 students to stay in the West
Shore, a post-secondary campus would bring new PSE students to the region – who would potentially
choose to live and spend in the local economy.

A recent Vancouver Island University (VIU, 2018) report found that the total impact of VIU on the regional
business community in 2016-7 was $624.5 million (VIU, 2018). This example is not to suggest a similar
impact for a West Shore campus – VIU is a mid-sized university with more than 1,200 employees and
approximately 11,000 students, but demonstrates how a post-secondary campus also serves as a true
economic engine for its host community.

BENEFITS OF A POST-SECONDARY CAMPUS ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  24
A New Approach to
Undergraduate Education
High school graduates today face an increasingly complex landscape of social, economic and environmen-
tal upheaval and challenges unimagined by previous generations. The pace of technological development
over the past 20 years is unparalleled. Very few roles in the workplace today are the same as they were
20 years ago. In fact, many of the jobs that are expected to become available in the next few years did not
even exist a decade ago.

While some would claim that post-secondary education institutions have been slow to respond to these
changes, there is a growing awareness that students will need a new set of literacies and competencies
to thrive in the emerging economy. In addition to literacy in math, reading, and writing, there should be a
focus on technological, data and design literacy, as well as on critical and systems thinking, cultural agility,
and entrepreneurship. These skills cannot be taught in the abstract but are best acquired through real
world environments such as co-ops and internships.

In addition to new skill sets better matched to the demands of a rapidly changing world, students are
increasingly looking for more dynamic, adaptive, personalized and student-focused learning. They expect
significantly more flexibility, whether that be in admissions and prior learning assessments; in ubiquitous
24/7 access and mobile learning; in accelerated and integrated learning (available on campus and online,
at home and at work); or in learning that focuses less on credentials and more on competencies, including
micro-credits. Given financial challenges, students often juggle part-time jobs with classes to make educa-
tion more affordable. All of this suggests that we need to radically rethink how we deliver post-
secondary education.

On-line courses offered in addition to their in-person counterparts have blurred the lines between tra-
ditional distance education and face-to-face instruction. In fact, the majority of on-line undergraduate
students are also taking courses at their local institution (Magda & Aslanian, 2018). The advantage of this
blended learning approach provides students with more flexibility in pathways to degree completion. A
recent study at the University of Arizona found that students who take 40-60% of their courses on-line
complete their degrees in 3.9 years versus 4.3 years for those that take exclusively traditional, in-person
programs (The Boston Consulting Group, 2018).

Blended learning can also better prepare students for university education before they arrive. As an exam-
ple, Royal Roads University has launched a very successful on-line course open to all registered students
prior to arrival. “The Launch Pad” effectively introduces new students to university values, technologies,
academic support strategies and services. Students seeking additional support to improve skills such as
academic and critical thinking can also take on-line courses prior to university arrival.

A well-designed blended approach promotes active learning by engaging students in on-line programming
where appropriate, and allowing more interactive classes. Research shows measurable and significant
increases in student learning and reductions in failure rates for courses that have been redesigned with the
use of appropriate on-line pedagogy (The National Centre for Academic Transformation, 2014).

A NEW APPROACH TO UNDERGRADUATE EDUCATION ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  25
 There is an opportunity to prepare West Shore secondary school graduates for high-demand career op-
portunities through an innovative, student-centred, and personalized program of learning that cultivates
the competencies, skills, and dispositions necessary for today’s complex and changing sociocultural and
economic landscape.

The aim of the program would be to engage students in the acquisition of foundational knowledge in tradi-
tional disciplines using non-traditional pedagogies aligned with BC’s new K-12 curriculum. Students will be
empowered to apply this knowledge to real life contexts to build their competencies as changemakers and
leaders in their workplaces and communities. The program would incorporate individualized and experien-
tial learning, with options for short field study and/or term work experiences.

The development of such a university experience will improve affordability, access and convenience, and
provide choice for West Shore secondary school graduates who wish to enter university. It will allow them
to study and live close to amenities and services offered in the region, which will positively affect the vibran-
cy and economy of the West Shore region. In addition, fewer commuting hours will provide students with
more time for part-time employment.

Collectively, removing barriers to university participation, providing greater opportunities to earn money
while studying, and delivering relevant and attractive programs, will increase the number of students who
pursue and obtain university degrees.

The program will be designed to enable participation by all qualified West Shore graduates, and will also
include targeted strategies like specialized pathway programs to enhance access of first generation and
Indigenous students. An example of an innovative first and second year program is shown on the following
page, and students completing this program could continue into third and fourth year programs on-site or
transfer to other institutions to complete their degrees.

Royal Roads University looks forward to working with educational partners and stakeholders to further
refine this model for expanding post-secondary access on the West Shore to better serve the needs of busi-
ness and the community, and is confident that it could serve as a pilot for the rest of province.

A NEW APPROACH TO UNDERGRADUATE EDUCATION ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  26
 A Proposed First and Second Year Program

EXPLORE INQUIRY DIRECTION MOMENTUM

Semester one grounds the
student in the post-secondary
setting in terms of expecta-
tions, personal growth and
opportunities. The emphasis is
an interdisciplinary explora-
tion of global challenges that
familiarizes students with the
competencies they will develop
throughout the program,
including changemaking and
leadership components that
provide community engage-
ment experiences.
Semester two challenges stu-
dents to dig deeper into socie-
tal issues through posing “big”
questions and using research,
reason, reflection, analysis
and effective articulation of
diverse perspectives on these
questions. Four core courses
in different knowledge areas–
science, math, social science,
and arts and humanities–are
intentionally broad in nature to
expose students to a range of
disciplines and subject areas.
Two-week interdisciplinary
field study opportunities follow
semester two.
Semester three advances all
the competencies and provides
students with opportunities
to explore their personalized
area of interest. They design
their own learning direction
with courses in the general
knowledge areas of natural
science, math, social science,
arts and humanities, and busi-
ness. The core course, Leader
as Changemaker, involves a
community-based project that
runs throughout the semester.
Students build on relevant
competencies gained from
the community engagement
in semester two, along with
an elective work preparation
course.
Semester four guides students
in decision-making about
academic and work-related
pursuits beyond the program,
preparing them personally, pro-
fessionally and academically
to move into the next phase of
their lives. Students continue
to hone their course selections
to align with their personal and
professional next steps, wheth-
er in further education, training
or employment. The required
Leadership Capstone Project
sees students synthesize and
apply learning by grappling
with the complexities of a re-
al-world issue they identify as
relevant to their lives. The term
supports students engaged in
work search, with elective field
study courses available at the
end of the semester.

COMPETENCIES EXPLORE INQUIRE DIRECTION MOMENTUM PROGRAM

• collaboration OUTCOMES
YEAR 1 YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 2
1 Work collaboratively
• creativity SEMESTER 1 SEMESTER 2 SEMESTER 1 SEMESTER 2 across and within
community contexts
• communication
2 Explore and analyze
LEADERSHIP
• leadership GLOBAL
MATH
LEADER AS
CAPSTONE
solutions to real-world
CITIZENSHIP CHANGEMAKER issues and problems
• global citizenship PROJECT
3 U
 se communication skills
• interdisciplinary to effectively articulate
exploration understanding and ideas

SCIENCE ELECTIVES ELECTIVES 4 Challenge assumptions by

• research Four three-week applying ethical judgement,
themes drawn from inquiry, reasoning and logic
• ethics disciplines including
5 Reflect on expanded
• values business, economics,
knowledge and growth
science, math, geog-
SOCIAL PATHWAY PATHWAY based on individual
• critical analysis raphy, anthropology,
position in the world
tourism, political SCIENCE COURSES COURSES
science, sociology, 6 Work with different bodies of
justice, literature, knowledge to communicate
ENTRY ideas and positions
film, art and commu-
REQUIREMENTS nications. Includes
ARTS & 7 Integrate global perspectives
• Math 11 studio component.
HUMANITIES to demonstrate appreciation
and respect for diversity
• English 12 EXAMPLES:
8 Show attentiveness to local
• interest in civic • climate change
and global issues through
engagement • critical media being informed, open-minded
• literacy FIELD STUDY and responsive to pressing
• desire to • global initiatives issues, events and emerging
participate • social movements
frontiers of knowledge
in a learning 9 Demonstrate changemaker
community and leadership potential
COMMUNITY
10 E ngage in research concerned
ENGAGEMENT
with pertinent social issues

ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  27

Summary &
Recommendation
The West Shore is in the middle of a remarkable and transformational period of growth. From 2001 to 2016,
the region’s population grew by an astounding 49% to 77,460 people. During this same time, the 0-14 age
group grew by 11%, foreshadowing an impending need for enhanced education services in the region. With
a younger population and more development planned in the region, the expansion is not over. The West
Shore’s population is projected to increase to 113,000 by 2031 (Matrix, 2018).

Recently, the West Shore has experienced an economic boom and a very low unemployment rate. However,
the economy is changing and the demand for more skilled workers is rising. The skills required for jobs
today will not be the same as those required in the future. The economy of the West Shore is likely at
greater risk of disruption than some other regions due to the prevalence of jobs in more traditional
industries. Labour market forecasts predict that 917,000 jobs will be created or become available in British
Columbia due to retirements over the next decade. Seventy-eight percent of these jobs will require some
post-secondary education or training, and more than a third will need at least a university degree.

Although SD 62 graduation rates are below the provincial average, they are improving and reached a high of
76.3% in 2016-17. This improvement in graduation rates provides an opportunity for more students to qualify
for post-secondary education. However, graduates in the West Shore are not transitioning to post-secondary
education at the same rate as the rest of the province. The five-year (2011-12 to 2015-16) immediate transi-
tion average was 43.2% compared to 52.5% provincially. Moreover, West Shore students are transitioning
to university, in particular, at much lower rates; in 2016-17, 17.2% of SD 62 graduates transitioned directly to
university, roughly half the BC average.

Decisive action is needed to remove the barriers facing West Shore students and to provide them with the
opportunity to get the skills they need to succeed in the future.

There is conclusive research showing that distance to a post-secondary institution is a significant

determinant of participation in post-secondary education. Surveys of students, parents and educators
on the West Shore identified distance and commute times, along with the lack of affordable housing, as
significant barriers to pursuing a post-secondary education.

With a significant number of job openings in the coming years there should be ample opportunity for
students to find good employment. However, based on current PSE transition rates, many young people
in the West Shore will not have the requisite skills to participate fully in the emerging economy.

Expanding post-secondary access on the West Shore – most likely in the form of a collaborative venture
involving Royal Roads University, Camosun College and the University of Victoria - would greatly benefit
SD 62 students and local adult learners, and support the development of a strong, sustainable community
driven by a vibrant economy.

The West Shore is one of the fastest-growing regions in the province, a trend expected to continue over the
next 10-plus years. Creating access to post-secondary education in the West Shore will drive sustainable
economic development and foster community building. This will enable West Shore students to stay in the
region for their entire education and it will increase participation rates in post-secondary education, thus
equipping future generations to benefit from the opportunities of the emerging economy.

SUMMARY & RECOMMENDATION ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  28
 This report recommends that the BC government
support the expansion of post-secondary access
on the West Shore.

NEXT STEPS
This report concludes that there is a need for a new post-secondary option in the West Shore region.
If the government accepts the recommendation, funding will be required to support the development
of a full business case.

The business case would include:

· Advanced student enrolment modelling

· Detailed Academic curriculum design

· Identification of Infrastructure needs

· Site Selection + Design

· Financial analysis and Timelines

SUMMARY & RECOMMENDATION ASSESSING POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION NEEDS IN THE WEST SHORE  |  29
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