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Integrated Environmental Strategies India: Air Quality Modeling

EPTRI

June 2004
PRESENTATION ON

INTEGRATED
ENVIRONMENTAL
STRATEGIES - INDIA
I
E
S

I
N
D CANDIDATE CITY

I
A
N
STUDY AREA MAP
FOR
INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL
STRATEGIES

Legend

o Industrial Areas
District boundary
HUDA boundary
I.E. MEDCHAL o
SHAMEERPET
Municipality Boundary
Hyderabad District / MCH boundary

Industrial Development Areas


oGADDAPOCHARA oBOLLARAM ELECTRONIC CITY

IDA JEEDIMETLA III


ALWAL
IDA JEEDIMETLA I
IDA PATANCHERU
o
QUTHBULLAPUR
AIE BHEL RC PURAM KAPRA
IDA KUKATPALLY
E.C KUSHAIGUDA
SERILINGAMPALLY
o KUKATPALLY
IDA BALANAGAR MALKAJGIRI
IDA CHERLAPALLI
SERILINGAMPALLY CONTONMENT IDA MOULALI
IE SANATHNAGAR

I.T.P MADHAPUR IDA MALLAPUR


IDA NACHARAM
MCH AREA
o
AZAMABAD
UPPAL
IDA UPPAL

CHANDULAL BARADARI
L.B.NAGAR

CHANDRAYANGUTTA AUTONAGAR
oMOINABAD RAJENDRANAGAR
o
SEIE KATTEDAN

1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Kilometers

Centre of Excellence,
Spatial Environmental Planning
Environment Protection Training &
Research Institute, Hyderabad.
OVERALL OBJECTIVE
Analyzing and Identifying
Strategies that Achieve Multiple
Economic, Public Health and
Environmental Benefits while
Improving Local Air Quality and
Reducing Green House Gas
Emissions (GHG)
OBJECTIVES OF I.E.S
™ To quantify AAQ levels.
™ To assess air quality impact on public
health and suggest mitigation measures.
™ To build capacity for strategies to
reduce GHG emissions.
™ To develop and institutionalize an
analytical framework to aid policy
makers.
™ To establish inter-disciplinary team with
capabilities to conduct integrated
analysis.
OBJECTIVES OF I.E.S
Contd...

™ To build support at local and national


level to recommend GHG mitigation
strategies .
™ To recommend cost-effective policies
and technologies to reduce emissions
for sustainable development .
PROJECT COMPONENTS
Ambient Air Quality
• Emissions Inventory
• Air Quality Modeling studies
• Cost benefit Analysis

™ Transportation studies including Planning


Efforts and Issues
™ Health Effects of Air Quality and Economic
Valuation of Health Effects
Air Emissions
™ Most of air pollution in Hyderabad is due
to emissions from transportation sector.

™ Industry is the second largest contributor


to air emissions.

™ The major pollutants in the city are


particulate matter, carbon monoxide,
hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides.
TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS
™ Air pollution from vehicular emissions
poses the most immediate problem in
Hyderabad.

™ Two and three-wheelers comprise over


80% of vehicular population.

™ 80% of two wheelers and all three


wheelers have 2-stroke engines,
contributing to heavy pollution load.
TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS
Contd…

™ Adulterated fuels(mixed with


kerosene) are another cause of
increased pollution.

™ The twin cities witnessed explosive


growth in the last decade in human
and vehicular population.
TSPM Levels in Hyderabad City in
CY 2003
Trends in Am bient air quality (SAAQM) of Hyderabad during 2003 - Monthly Average values
of Total Suspended Particulate Matter (TSPM)
800 Abids
750 Punjagut t a
700 Par adise
St andar d limit : 200 ug/ M3
650 Char minar
600 Zoo Par k
550 KBRN Par k
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
,2 , 2 , 2 , 2 ,2 ,2 ,2 ,2 , 2 ,2 ,2 , 2
B R Y L P T V C
N
FE A PR A N
JU
G
SE C O E
JA M A M JU A
U O N D
M o n t h & Ye a r

Source: APPCB
INDUSTRIAL EMISSIONS

™Hyderabad being centrally located


in the country attracts lot of trade,
commerce and industry.

™The rapid industrialization and


commercialization is resulting in
increased levels of air pollution.
AIR QUALITY STATUS
™ Air Quality is monitored at 21
locations in the city involving
Residential (R), Mixed Zones
(M), Commercial (C) and
Industrial (I) Areas.

™ Parameters monitored
include SO2, NOx, RSPM and
TSPM.
Air Emissions Inventory
™ Data collected from regional PCB
offices in the study area for over 550
industries registered with APPCB.
™ Data collected for each industry
includes type of fuel used, quantity
of fuel, stack test data, control
equipment information, etc.
™ Base year for inventory is CY 2001.
Emissions Estimation
™ Stack test data and emissions factors
used to estimate PM 10 and GHG
emissions from fuel usage.
™ GHG emission factors for India obtained
from international council of local
environmental initiatives (ICLEI).
™ PM 10 emission factors obtained from a
couple of sources: USEPA AP-42
document, and World Bank Study (Rapid
Assessment Method, using modified EFs
from WHO and EPA).
Final Results For Industrial
Emissions Inventory (Cy 2001) For
Baseline Scenario.
™ TOTAL ANNUAL ™ TOTAL ANNUAL
GHG EMISSIONS PM10 EMISSIONS
FOR STUDY AREA
FOR STUDY AREA
™ (TONS eCO2):
(TONS):

ΠCO2 : 768, 816


ΠN2O : 4, 085 ΠPM1O : 1,187
ΠCH4 : 26, 389
Development Of Alternative
Industrial Mitigation Scenarios.
™ Alternative industrial scenarios to reduce
PM10 and GHG emissions include:
ΠUse of additives in fuel oil in boilers.
ΠParticulate controls on all uncontrolled
coal, wood and agricultural waste fired
boilers.
ΠIntroducing use of Natural Gas in coal fired
boilers.
ΠUse of renewable energy (biomass
gasification).
Development Of Alternative
Industrial Mitigation
Scenarios(contd.)
™ For each mitigation scenario,
emissions for BAU and Mitigation
Scenario were calculated for CYs
2011 and 2021.
™ Annual industrial growth rate of 6.5%
was assumed (ref: CII).
™ Scenarios selected in consultation
with PCRA and NREL.
Development Of Alternative
Industrial Mitigation Scenarios
Contd…

Fuel Additives Scenario


™ Significant reduction (50%) in PM formed
during combustion of heavy fuel oil.
™ Reduction in excess air and more efficient
heat transfer.
™ This results in reduced fuel consumption
(3-4% reduction in fuel), resulting in
reduction of GHGs.
Development Of Alternative
Industrial Mitigation Scenarios Contd…

Control Scenario

™ Controls on all existing uncontrolled solid


fuel-fired boilers.
™ Cyclone controls assumed for smaller
boilers
™ Baghouses (fabric filters) assumed for
larger boilers.
™ Cyclones and baghouses are the most
commonly used particulate control
equipments in the study area.
Development Of Alternative
Industrial Mitigation Scenarios Contd…

Natural Gas Scenario


™ Natural gas pipeline will pass through
Hyderabad by 2006-7 (ref. GAIL, India).
™ Preferred fuel of the future:
environmentally friendly and economical.
™ As per Hydrocarbon Vision 2025, 15% fuel
usage assumed to be NG by 2011 and 20%
by 2021.
™ For purposes of this study, only coal fired
boilers replaced by NG.
™ Results in significant reduction of PM and
GHGs.
Development Of Alternative
Industrial Mitigation Scenarios Contd…
Biomass Gasification Scenario

™ Process uses renewable fuel (wood,


agricultural waste, etc.)
™ High conversion efficiency to gaseous
fuel.
™ Cost advantage: 1 liter of liquid fuel saved
with only 3-4 kgs. Biomass.
™ For this study, assumed 5% industrial
biogas usage by 2011 and 10% by 2021.
(ref: REP Act).
™ Significant reduction in PM and GHGs.
Comparison of Industrial
Mitigation Scenarios
PM10 Reduction GHG Reduction
Scenario (tons PM10) (tons eCO2 )
(% Reduction) (% Reduction)
2011 2021 2011 2021
Fuel Additive 272 T 509 T 18,416 T 34,481T
(12%) (12%) (1.25%) (1.25%)
Control 605 T 1128 T --- ----
(27%) (27%)
Natural Gas 241 T 594 T 33,283 T 88,201T
(10.8%)(14.2%) (2.3%) (3.2%)
Biogas 184 T 598 T 97,260T 281,062T
(8.2%) (14.3%) (6.5%) (10.2%)
IES-INDIA Analysis
Air Quality MODELING Studies
IES-INDIA ANALYSIS
AIR QUALITY MODELING STUDIES

The Air Quality Modeling (AQM) modeling study under the IES-India project
was carried out for the Hyderabad Urban Development Area (HUDA) which
covers Municipal Corporation of Hyderabad (MCH), surrounding ten
Municipalities and outgrowth areas.

™ The primary pollutant of concern Particulate matter less than 10 microns


in diameter, (PM10), was considered for Air quality modeling.

™ The base year considered for this AQM study was Calendar Year (CY)
2001.

™ Projections were made for BAU-2011 and BAU-2021


Key features of Industrial Source Complex
(ISC3) model:

The ISC3 model is a steady-state Gaussian plume model, which can be used to
assess pollutant concentrations from a wide variety of sources associated with in
the study area.

The important feature of the model includes handling multiple sources like point,
volume, area, and open pit source types.

The inputs and options required/available for this model are:


Control options
• Sources data
• Meteorological data
• Receptors information

After close observation of the study area and past experience in this area, EPTRI
has chosen the ISC3 model in order to predict ambient air concentrations for the
IES-India study.
AQM was carried out for the following Scenarios:
1)Baseline Scenario-2001
2) Business as usual(BAU)-2011
3)BAU-2011 with Effective Bus Transit System
4)BAU-2011 with Combined NG&BG fuel
5) BAU-2011 with Control
6) BAU-2011 with Fuel Additives
7) Business as usual(BAU)-2021
8)BAU-2021 with Effective Bus Transit System
9)BAU-2021 with Combined NG&BG fuel
10) BAU-2021 with Control
11) BAU-2021 with Fuel Additives
AQM Results – Baseline, BAU 2011& BAU 2021 Scenarios

Fig. 1.5.2(a)
Predicted GLCs of PM 10

1200

1000
o n cen tratio n s (u g /m 3 )

800

600

400

200

0
i
l

ll y
ea

ly
a

am
ru
gir
r

r
pa
r

pu
wa
ga

sa
pr
ga

al

pa

he
Ar

j
Up

ka

ll a

ar
Ka
Na

tp

tke
na

Al

nc
am

nn
ka
CH

bu
al
ra

ha
ta
B

Ku

ng

dia
ut
nd
M

Pa

G
L

rl i
je

ad
Se
Ra

MCH and surroundings

G
BL - 2001 BAU - 2011 BAU - 2021
C o n c e n tr a tio n s (u g /m 3 )
M

1000
1200

0
200
400
600
800
CH
Ra Ar
je ea
nd
ra
na
ga
L r
B
Na
ga
r
Up
pa
l
Ka
pr
a
M

BL - 2001
a lk
aj
gi r
i
Al
wa
Qu l
tb
Fig. 1.5.2(b)

BAU - 2011
u ll
ap

MCH and Surroundings


ur
Predicted GLCs of PM10

Ku
ka
Se tp
al
rli n ly
ga
m
pa
BAU - 2021
Pa ll y
ta
nc
he
Gh ru
at
Ga ke
sa
dd r
ia
nn
ar
am
AQM Results – Baseline, BAU 2011& BAU 2021 Scenarios
Air Quality Modeling was carried out for BAU-2011 and
BAU-2021 with the four selected alternative mitigation
scenarios.
The following are the selected four alternative
mitigations scenarios.

1) Transportation Sector:
i) More effective bus transit system

2) Industrial Sector:
i)Combined natural gas (NG) and biogas ( BG)
Scenario.
ii)Control Scenario
iii)Fuel Additive Scenario
M C o n c e n tr a tio n s (u g /m 3 )
Ra CH

0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450

je
nd A r e
ra a
na
L ga

BAU - 2011
B r
Na
ga
Up r
pa
Ka l

Trans - BT
M pr a
a lk
aj
gi r
i
Qu A lw
Fig. 1.6.1(a)

tb al
u ll

Ind - NG+BG
K u a pu
Predicted GLCs of PM10

Se k r
rlin at pa
ga l ly
MCH and Surroundings Pa pa m

Ind - Ctrl
ta ll y
nc
Gh h e r
Ga a u
d d tk e s
Ind - FA
ia
nn ar
ar
am
AQM Results – BAU 2011(Mitigation Scenarios)
AQM Results – BAU 2011(Mitigation Scenarios)

Fig. 1.6.1(b)
Predicted GLCs of PM 10

450
C o n c e n t ra t io n s ( u g /m 3 )

400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
l

ri
a

l
pa
ea

l ly
ur
r

wa

ru

ar
ll y
pr

jgi

m
ga
ar

tp a

es
Up

he
Ar

ra
pa
Ka

l ka
ag

Al

ll a
Na

na
a tk
nc
ka

m
H

an

tb u
Ma
MC

ia n
ta
LB

ga

Gh
Ku
dr

Qu

Pa
r l in
jen

dd
Ga
Se
Ra

MCH and Surroundings

BAU - 2011 Trans - BT Ind - NG+BG Ind - Ctrl Ind - FA


C o n c e n t ra t io n s
( u g /m 3 )

M
Ra CH

0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200

je
nd Ar e
ra a
L nag
B a

BAU-2021
Na r
ga
Up r
pa
Ka l

Trans-BT
M p ra
al
ka
jg
ir
Q u Al w i
Fig. 1.6.2(a)

tb u a l

Ind-NG+BG
Ku ll ap
Se k a u r
Predicted GLCs of PM 10

r l i tp a
ng
am l ly
MCH and Surroundings Pa p

Ind-Ctrl
t a all
n y
G ch e
G h a ru
Ind-FA a d t ke
dia sa
nn r
ar
am
AQM Results – BAU 2021(Mitigation Scenarios)
AQM Results – BAU 2021(Mitigation Scenarios)

Fig. 1.6.2(b)
Predicted GLCs of PM 10

1200
C o n cen tratio n s (u g /m 3 )

1000

800

600

400

200

0
ir i
l

a
ea

ly
r

ll y
pa
r

ru

am
wa
r

pu
pr
ga

sa
jg
ga

al

pa

he
Ar

Up

Ka

ka

ll a
Na

tp

ar
Al

tke
na

nc
am
ka
CH

al

nn
bu
ra

ha
ta
B

Ku
ut

ng

dia
nd
M

Pa

G
L

rli
je

ad
Se
Ra

G
MCH and Surroundings
BAU-2021 Trans-BT Ind-NG+BG Ind-Ctrl Ind-FA
Conclusions Derived From AQ Modeling:
™Comparing all the scenarios, the maximum concentrations are obtained
in MCH area. This may be due to movement of high vehicular population.
The projected avg. concentrations during BAU-2021 are very high.
™it is observed that Effective Bus Transit mitigation scenario is the most
effective scenario, as compared to other scenarios, in reducing the
particulate and GHG emissions. With Bus Transit scenario, ambient
pollutant concentrations are down to about 1/3 of corresponding BAU
levels.

™For BAU-2021, Patancheru and Rajendranagar would be the highly


polluted areas (after MCH), because of their vicinity to the air polluting
industries.

™ Industrial mitigation scenarios are not significant in MCH area. But they
are significant in reduction of GLCs in some the industrial areas, such as
Rajendranagar, Gaddiannaram, Patancheru, Qutbullapur etc.
Limitations of AQ Modeling
Study
™ Emissions information pertaining to 23
industries that had emissions of 10 tons
per year or greater in 2001 were selected
as point sources and the pollution loads
from the remaining industries were
considered as area sources.

™ There are no large power generation


plants within the study area, therefore
long term predictions of power plant
emissions are not considered in the study.
Limitations of AQ Modeling
Study (contd.)
™ The domestic (household energy) fuel
consumption and its emission load (not
included) is considered to be insignificant
when compared to the industrial or
vehicular releases, as the main domestic
fuel is Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) and/or
kerosene.

™ Emissions from sources such as road


dust, open burning and emissions from
residential and commercial
establishments have not been included.
Scope of Work For
Transportation Study
™ The Objective of the study comprises of the
following components
™ Baseline scenario (CY 2001) study.
™ Part-I: Scenarios for most effective bus transit
service (bus lanes, better bus-stops, better
road surfaces on trunk routes)
™ Part-II: Technology Training measure related
to 2-stroke vehicles
™ Part-III: Traffic Management Measures to
improve Traffic flow (flyovers, traffic signals,
footpaths, etc.)
™ Part IV: Multi-modal Transport System(rail)
Diagram of Transportation
Assessment Process
Emissions
Current Factors
Conditions from Pune
Vehicle fleet

VMT International Emissions


Baseline Travel Vehicle type for Baseline
Demand Vehicle
Assumptions for baseline Emissions Model and Policy
Forecasting & alternate Scenarios
scenarios

Policy Adjusted
Scenarios for Emissions
Components Factors for
1&2 Component
3

TDF
Transportation Analysis
Results for Transportation
Baseline Scenario (CY 2001)
™ Total Annual GHG ™ Total Annual PM10
Emissions for Study Emissions for Study
Area (tons eCO2)
Area (tons)

™ CO2: 844,869
™ N2O: 2,263
™ PM10: 1,825
™ CH4: 185,110
Selected Transportation
Mitigation Scenario Results
™ More Effective Bus Transit Scenario:
™ % Reduction in Emissions:
™ 2011 2021
™ PM10: 35% 55%
™ CO2 13% 34%
™ N2O - 30%
™ CH4 38% 59%
Selected Transportation
Mitigation Scenario Results
™ Multi-Modal Transport System (Light Rail)
™ % Reduction in Emissions:
™ 2011 2021
™ PM10: 2.5% 4.6%
™ CO2 2.14% 10.21%
™ N2O - 30 %
™ CH4 1.7% 3.49%
Damage Function Approach For
Health Effects Analysis
Pollutant
Emissions

Background Ambient
Concentrations Atmospheric models
Concentrations

Population Human Exposure


Exposed
Exposure-Response
Baseline Risk Health Effects Function

Social Benefits Social Value


Limitations of IES-India Study
™ Only secondary emissions data was
used.
™ Emissions factors not customized for
local conditions.
™ Emissions from sources such as road
dust, open burning, residential and
commercial establishments were not
included.
Future Improvements to IES-
India Study
™ Include all significant sources, including
road dust, open burning,etc.
™ Use primary data, if possible.
™ Use better emission factors, if available.
™ Include more transportation mitigation
scenarios for modeling/health studies.
Cost-Benefit Analysis
™ Costs for implementation of each industrial
and transportation scenario estimated for
CYs 2011 and 2021.
™ Health effects and economic evaluation of
health effects estimated by modeling for each
mitigation scenario.
™ GHG reduction benefits also considered.
™ Implementation costs for each mitigation
scenario have been compared with benefits
obtained for comprehensive cost-benefit
analysis.
IES METHODOLOGY
ALTERNATIVE Co- & ANCILLARY
INTEGRATED BENEFITS POLICY
STRATEGIES ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS
& SCENARIOS
AIR
REFINEMENT
GHG
POLLUTION &
MITIGATION POLLUTANT
OBJECTIVES
VALUATION
POLICIES, EMISSIONS & HEALTH OF DESSEMINA-
EFFECTS HEALTH TION
TECHNOLOGIES - Air quality EFFECTS OF RESULTS
& & exposure
AQ CLIMATE - Economic &
MITIGATION MEASURES -GHG emissions
OBJECTIVES BENEFITS
Social costs
-Reports
(GHG
REDUCTIONS)
-Workshops
PARTNERS IN THE STUDY
™ Sponsors- USAID and USEPA

™ Technical Contractor- NREL

™ Overall coordination, AAQ analysis and


Cost /Benefit analysis–EPTRI

™ Health Effects Analysis and Economic


valuation -IHS.

™ Transportation Planning - RITES


THANK YOU

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