VOL. 3, NO.

4 WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH FOURTH QUARTER 1967

Time Distribution Rainall in HeavyStorms

F. A. HUFF

Illinois S•ate Water Survey, Urbana

Abstract. Time distribution relations have been developed for heavy storms on areas
rangingup to 400 squaremiles and presentedin probabilityterms to providequantitative
informationon interstormvariability and to provideaverageand extremerelationsfor vari-
ousapplications of the fiudings.
It wasfoundthat the relationscouldbe represented bestby
relatingper cent of stormrainfall to per cent of total stormtime and groupingthe data
according to the quartilein whichrainfall washeaviest.The individualeffectsof meanrain-
fall, storm duration,and other stormfactorswere small and erraticin behaviorwhen the
foregoinganalyticaltechniquewas used.Basin area had a small but consistenteffectupon
the time distribution.The derivedrelationsare applicableto the Midwest and other areasof
similarclimateand topography.They canbe usedin conjunctionwith publishedinformation
on spatialdistributions
and otherstormparametersto constructstormmodelsfor hydrologic
applications.(Key words: Rainfall; hydrology.;storms)

IAITRODUCTIOAI maybeused
in hydrologic
design
proble
msor
Knowledgeof the time distributionof rain- other applications.
fall in heavy stormsis of paramountimportance DrmVATm•r or Tx•r DXSTam•JTXO•rS
in solving certain hydrologicproblems,such
as the design of urban storm sewer systems. Analytical Procedures
This knowledgeis also useful in studyingsoil Network data for the 11-year period 1955-
erosionand the flood potential of varioustypes 1966 were used.Recordingrainfall charts from
of storms,as well as in advancingour under- the 49 gageswerereadin 5-, 15-, and30-minute
standingof the physicsof the atmospherewith increments with a Benson-Lehner chart an-
regardto precipitationprocesses. alyzer (Oscar F), the incrementdepending
Continuousoperation of a concentratednet- on whether the charts operatedon a 6-hour,
work of 49 recordingrain gageson 400 square daily, or weeklytime scale.The output from
miles in east central Illinois since 1955 has pro- the chart analyzerwasplaceddirectlyon IBM
vided significantnew knowledgeof the temporal eards for an IBM-7094 computer program.
distribution of rainfall. Results from these dis- A storm was defined as a rain period sepa-
tribution studiesfor areasrangingfrom a point rated from precedingand succeedingrainfall
to 400 squaremiles in Illinois shouldbe gener- by 6 hoursor more. All stormswere usedin
ally applicableto the Midwest and other areas which the network mean rainfall exceeded 0.50
of similar climate and topography.The Illinois inch, and/or one or more gagesrecordedover
network is located in a rural area of fiat terrain 1 inch. Within the data period, 261 network
with elevations from 650 to 910 feet msl. stormshaving total durationsof from 3 to 48
The network averages one gage per 8 square hoursqualifiedfor the study.
miles,arrangedin a nearly uniform grid pattern For theseseieetedstorms,the 7094 computer
(Figure 1). provideda printout of the time distribution
This paper describesfirst the derivation of of averagerainfall in 30-minuteincrementsfor
statisticalexpressionsfor the time distribution areasof 50, 100, 200, and 400 squaremiles,and
of storm rainfall, and then the storm factors for point rainfall at 5 gagesin the network.
that influence the time distribution character- The 30-minute summations tend to smooth the
istics. The third section illustrates use of this time distribution curvesby eliminatingminor
information to construct storm models that bursts and fluctuations,but this is acceptable
1007
1008 F.A. HUFF

type and the numberand orientationof precipi-

ß ß ß ß ß ß tation centers were determined from isohyetal
maps of total storm rainfall. Sincebasin runoff
patterns are affected by storm path, a fre-
quency analysis was made of the motion of
rain cells that produce heavy storms through
use of successive30-minuteisohyetalmaps and
synoptic charts of upper wind flow.
25

Analytical Results
A major portion of the total storm rainfall
ß
occursin a small part of the total storm time,
regardlessof storm duration, areal mean rain-
. fall, and total number of showersor bursts in
0
SCALE OF MILES
I 2 •5 4 5
the storm period. Upon this finding, it was
ß ß
ß decidedto classifythe stormsinitially into four
groups, depending on whether the heaviest
rainfall occurredin the first, second,third, or
Fig. 1. East central Illinois rain gage network.
fourth quarter of the storm period.
Next, statisticalanalysesindicatedthat storm
for most hydrometeorological applications,and, duration and areal mean rainfall explain only
in someeases,desirable.The time distributions a small portion of the variance,when the time
have been expressedas cumulative percentages distribution is classifiedby quartile and ex-
of storm rainfall and storm duration to make pressedas percentagesof total storm duration
valid comparisonsbetween storms and to sim- and rainfall. For example,correlationanalyses
plify analysesand presentationof the data. for all storms on data from the 400-square-
Time distributionmodels,presentedas prob- mile area showed that. mean rainfall accounted
ability distributions,provide quantitative meas- for approximately 2% of the variance in the
ures of both the interstorm variability and the time distributions,and storm durationexplained
general characteristicsof the time sequenceof approximately 7%.
precipitation in storms. These results should The effects of duration and mean rainfall
aid the hydrologistin designproblemsor other were explored further through calculationof
applications in which time distribution is a median time distributionson 400 squaremiles
pertinent factor. for each quartile after groupingaccordingto
Other statisticsderived that are pertinent in 3 durationand 4 meanrainfallgroups.Duration
the classification of storms include the number groupsof less than 12, 12 to 24, and over 24
of individual showers (bursts) in the total hours were used, along with mean rainfall
storm period, the location of the heaviest classesof 0.50-0.99, 1.00-1.49, 1.50-1.99, and
shower in the storm period, the percentageof 2.00 inches or over. Erratic trends were found
the total storm period that had occurred at with both parameters.For example,in second-
the start and end of this shower,the percentage quartile storms, the curve for 12 to 24 hours
of the total storm rainfall precedingthe heaviest waslocatedbeyondthe 24-hourdurationcurve,
shower,the percentageof the total storm rain- rather than betweenthe othergroups.
fall occurring in the heaviest shower, and the Part of the effects of duration and mean rain-
percentageof the total storm period during fall is absorbedin the quartile groupings(dis-
which rain actually fell. In general, a shower cussed later), whichshowa trend for the longer,
or burst was defined as a cessation in rainfall heavier storms to dominatethe fourth-quartile
or an abrupt, persistentchangein rainfall rate. grouping, whereas short-duration storms ac-
Storm type and precipitation type were de- count for a major portion of the first and
termined from synoptic weather maps and secondquartile groups.Possibly,a much larger
observerreports to aid in defining midwestern storm sample would stabilize the effects suf-
storm characteristics.The precipitationpattern ficiently to permit realistic quartile elassifiea-
 Time Distribution 1009

tions accordingto duration and mean rainfall. abilitytermsbecause

of the greatvariabilityin
However, as a result of the Illinois analysesit the characteristicsof the distribution from storm
was consideredmore logical,as a first approxi- to storm. Numerous factors contribute to the
mation, to determineaveragerainfall distribu- stormvariance;amongtheseare the stageof
tions for each of the four areas (50, 100, 200, developmentof the storm, the size and com-
400 sq mi) by quartile type only. (As will be plexityof the stormsystem,rainfalltype, syn-
shown later, the storm-to-storm variability in opticstormtype, the locationof the sampling
the time distributions is so great that large- area with respectto the storm center,and the
scalesubgrouping for minor adjustmentof mean movement of the storm system across the
relations is impractical. Various storm factors, sampling region.
including mean rainfall and storm duration, Probabilitydistributionsallow selectionof s
causerelativeIy large variations in the quartile time distribution most appropriate for a par-
distributions between storms, but no single ticularapplication.In manycasesa mediantime
parameter dictates the characteristics of the distributionwill be most useful,but in othersan
distribution.) extremetype of storm distribution,in which
Areal grouping showed only small changes the runoff in most likely to maximize in a
in the time distribution with increasing size particularportionof a storm,may be desired.
of samplingarea. Thus, an averagerelationship Figure2 showsthe probabilitydistributionof
for areas of 50 to 400 square miles combined first-quartile storms sampledon areas of 50,
was determined,and specificarea distributions 100, 200, and 400 square miles. These are
were expressedas departuresfrom this average. smooth curves reflecting the average rainfall
The reliability of the average distribution is distribution with time and, therefore, do not
relatively strong becauseof the large amount exhibit the burst characteristics of a mass
of data used, and, further, the average curves curve. Probability levels from 10 to 90% are
can be most useful as a first approximationin shown,but the 50% level (median) has been
many applicationsof the data. stressedby a heavier line, sinceit is probably
The time distributionsare expressedin prob- the most useful statistic. Figure 3 is s histo-

IOO I I I I

• 20

20 40 60 80 IOO
CUMULATIVE PERCENT OF STORM TIME

Fig. 2. Time distributionof first-quartilestorms.

 6O I I I I
gramfor the10-,50-,and90%4evels,
showing
the percentage
of total stormrainfallby 10%-
4O • I0%
PROBABILITY increments of storm time.
As an illustration,the 50%-curveon Figure
2 indicatesthat. in first-quartilestorms,18%
or more of the rain will occurin the first.10%
-,J 2O
of the stormperiod,and 86% or morewill occur
in the first half of the storm period in 50%
of the cases.The 50%-probabilityhistogram
I i i
(Figure 3) indicatesthat, on the average,the
2 40 heaviestrainfall will occurin the second10%
of the storm period in first-quartile storms.

2 2o
50%
PROBABILITY However,the 10%-probability histogramshows
that' the most intenseportion of the rainfall
may occurat the beginningof a storm occasion-
ally, resulting in over 50% of the rainfall in
I I I I this first 10% of the stormperiod.The 90%-
90% PROBABILITY
probability histogramillustratesthe more uni-
form distributionthat. occasionally occursin
first-quartilestormsin which lessthan 60%
of the rain fallsin the firsthalf,andappreciable
percentages of the total occurthroughoutthe
stormperiod.The 90% levelmay alsobe inter-
0 20 40 60 80 I00
CUMULATIVE PERCENT OF STORM TIME
preted as the distribution that will occur in
10% or less of the storms.
Fig. 3. Selected histograms for first-quartile Figures 4-6 show time distribution relation-
storms. shipsin stormsof the other three quartile

8O

• 20

o
o 20 40 60 80 I00
CUMULATIVE PERCENT OF STORM TIME

Fig. 4. Time dis•ribuQon

of second-quartile
storms.
 Time Distribution 1011
Ioo I I I I I I I

80

• •o

• ,•o

• 20

o
o 20 40 60 80 1oo
CUMULATIVE PERCENT OF STORM TIME

Fig. 5. Time distribution of third-quartile st,orms.

IOO

80

• 20

o
o 20 40 60 80 1oo
CUMULATIVE PERCENT OF STORM 'TIME

Fig. 6. Time distributionof fourth-quartile s•orms.

1012 F.A. I-IUFI•

types. Table 1 showsthe percentagefrequency TABLE 2. Differences between Average Curve and Specific
Areas for 50%-Probability Level in First-Quartile Storms
of the four types of storms, which can be
used with the quartile curves to obtain the
Difference (%) for Given Cumulative
over-all probability of any selectedcurve. Per Cent of Storm Duration
Assume that one wishes to determine the Area,
Sq Mi 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
over-all probability of the 10% curve (Figure
2) in which the rainfall maximizes in the first
Point --9 --1 -{-5 -{-6 +6 -{-6 -{-5 -{-4 -{-3
10% of the storm period, and over 95% of 10 --11 --3 -]-2 +1 -]-3 -]-2 -]-2 -]-2 +1
the rain occurs in the first half of the storm. 50 --2 +3 +3 +2 +2 +2 +1 0 0
100 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Table I indicates that a first-quartile storm
200 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 0
will occur in 30% of the cases.Within first- 400 , -]-6 -]-4 --1 --2 --2 --1 --1 0 --1
quartile storms the probability of this type of
distribution is 10%. Therefore, the over-all
probability of the occurrenceof this condition The departures from the average curve
in all heavy stormsover a substantialperiod of (Table 2) are relatively small for the areas of
years is approximately3% (0.30 X 0.10). The 50 to 400 squaremilesand appear to be within
same over-all probability applies to the 90% the limits of expectedsamplingvariations. Al-
level when interpreted as a distribution that though the sample for the 10-square-milearea
will occur in 10% or lessof all storms. includedonly the most intensestormsin a 10-
Table 2, which illustrates the areal effect on year period, the differencesshownare also rela-
the time distribution, presentsthe differencein tively small, except at the start of the storm
per cent between the average value (areas of period. The substantialnegativedifferencehere
50 to 400 squaremiles combined)at the 50%- indicatesa tendencyfor the percentageof the
probability level and the values for specific total rainfall occurringin the early stagesof
areas obtained from constructing individual storms to be greater than on the larger areas.
curves from the network data. Individual area However,becauseof the small sampleof storms
values have been subtractedfrom the average for 10 squaremiles, there is still a possibility
curve value, so that a negative entry indicates that the difference
merelyreflectssamplingvari-
a percentagelarger than the areal average. ations.
Table 2 also illustrates how time character- The point data show the largest departures
isticson very small areas (point and 10-sq-mi) from the mean curve, and, similarly to the 10-
differ from thoseon the larger areas.The point square-mile results, indicate a tendency for
data are from Gage 25 in the center of the larger percentagesof the total rainfall at the
major network. The 10-square-miledata are start of storms.This tendencyappearslogical
from an urban network in east central Illinois for rain on smaller areas. If one assumes a
[Hu# and Changnon,1966] having a 10-year storm of given intensity and areal extent mov-
record, 1954-1963. These time distributions for ing acrosstwo areas of appreciably different
10 squaremiles are from the 50 heavieststorms size,the smallerarea will receivea larger per-
in the 10 years,derivedby the sametechnique centageof its areal mean rainfall in the early
usedfor the major networkdata. part of the rain period,particularlyif the storm
is smaller than the network in areal extent.
Tables for other probability levels and for
TABLE 1. PercentageFrequency of the other three typesof quartilestormshave
Quartile Storms beenpreparedand will be publishedin a more
detailedresearchreport.
Frequency The curvesat the variousprobability levels
Quartile (%) reveal characteristicsof certain storm types.
For example,at the 10%-level in first-quartile
First 30
Second 36 storms (Figure 2) over 80% of the total storm
Third 19 rainfall occursin the first 20% of the storm.
Fourth 15 This conditionis frequentlyassociatedwith rel-
atively short-durationstorms,such as the pas-
 Time Distribution 1013

sage of an intense, prefrontal squall line in For the Illinois study, bursts were separated
which light rain falls from the middle cloud by (1) a completecessationof rainfall on the
deck system for substantial periods following samplingarea; (2) a changeof 100% or more
the major rain bursts (usually in the form of in successive30-minute rainfall amounts, pro-
thunderstorms). Similarly, the distribution at vided that theseamountsinvolved 5% or more
the 90%-level is most likely to be associate'd of the total storm rainfall, and (3) percentage
with longer-durationstorms,in which the rain changesof total rainfall from 3, 4, or 5% to
is more evenly distributed during the storm less than 1% between successive 30-minute
period and is often dominated by a series of periods. Changes between successiveperiods
rainshowersor steady rain or a combinationof ranging from 0.1 to 2% of the storm total were
both. not consideredseparate bursts. Only a few of
In the fourth-quartile storms,the 10%-level the many burst statisticswill be presentedto
distribution is common to the passage of a illustrate the results.
large-scale weather system with warm front An evaluation was made of the number of
rainfall at the start of the storm and more in-
bursts associatedwith the various types of
tense cold-frontal rainfall near the end. The quartile stormson the 400-square-milearea. In
90%-distribution may be associatedwith the the first-quartile storms, two or three bursts
approachand passageof a low pressurecenter were most. frequent, accountingfor approxi-
through or near the sampling region, when mately 48% of the occurrences.One to three
light rainfall may precede the center passage bursts occurred in 60% of the second-quartile
for several hours and the rainfall intensity storms. Three to five bursts were most common
maximizesas the center passes. with the third-quartile storms, accountingfor
In concludingthe discussionof time distri- 52% of the cases.The fourth-quartile storms
bution characteristics,it is emphasizedthat the showed a strong preference for four bursts
curvesand tablespresentedhere are empirically which were associatedwith 35% of the storms.
derived. They are not submittedas exact mathe- Combining all storms, those with two, three,
matical relationships,but rather as first or four bursts accountedfor 53% of the cases.
proximationsof a hydrometeorological param- In general,the numberof burstsrangedfrom
eter for which quantitative knowledge is I to 14 in the Illinois storms,and the maximum
sparse.In midwesternareasand other regionsof burst occurredanywherefrom the first to eighth
similar rainfall climate and physiography,the burst within the storms.The percentageof the
relationshipsshouldbe usefulto the hydrologist total rainfall occurring in the maximum burst
in estimating time distributions over areas of varied from less than 20% to 100% on each
10 to 400 squaremiles on urban and small rural of the areas (50-400 sq mi).
basins. Next, the effectof total storm durationon the
number of bursts 'was evaluated on the 400-
STOR• C•ARAC•R•ST•CS square-mile network. With durations less than
3 hours,single-burststormspredominated,ac-
Frequency of Bursts counting for 52% of the cases.In durations
Analyses were made to define the rainfall from 3 to 12 hours, double-burststorms pre-
burst characteristicsin heavy storms to pro- dominated,with 38% of the total cases.Storms
vide further insight into the physical proper- with three to five bursts were found with
ties and processesinvolved in such storms. nearly equal frequencywith durationsof 12 to
The first problem was to define a burst. 24 hours,accountingfor 71% of the cases.With
After considerableprobing,definitionswere se- durationsexceeding24 hours, six-burststorms
lected to portray realistically definite changes were most common, occurring in 30% of the
in rainfall intensity associatedwith significant cases. The number of bursts tends to. increase
changesin the atmosphericprecipitationproc- with increasingstorm duration. Also, analyses
esses,such as the developmentof new rain showed the number of bursts to increase with
cells over the sampling area, a major change volume of rainfall, on the average,an expected
in the rainout characteristicsof the existing trend since the heavier areal mean rainfalls
s•orm, or arrival of • new storm system. tend to occur with the longer rainfall durations.
1014 F.A. HUFF

Maximum Burst Relations TABLE 4. Per Cent of Total Storm Period

with Precipitation
Other information valuable to understanding
the burst characteristicsof heavy storms in-
Median Percentagefor Given
cludeswhat percentageof the rain occursbe- Storm Area (sq mi)
fore and during the maximumburst and how Period,
much of the total storm time has ensued before Hours Point 50 100 200 400

and duringthe maximumburst.A largevolume

of statisticshas been compiledon these burst < 3.0 100 100 100 100 100
3.1-6.0 79 91 100 100 100
characteristicsfor a point and areas up to 400
6.1-12.0 74 87 88 92 96
squaremiles for each of the quartile storms. 12.1-24.0 55 74 81 83 92
Table 3 illustratestheseburst analysesbased > 24.0 42 65 70 76 83
on the median value of each parameter for a
point (Gage 25, Figure 1) and for areas of
50 to 400 squaremiles combined,sincediffer-
time is shortestfor the fourth-quartile storms,
ences between these areas were small. The data
which alsohave the smallestpercentageof total
show,for eachquartile, the cumulativeper cent rainfall in the maximum burst.
of the storm periodthat had ensuedbeforethe
start of the maximum burst, the cumulative Time Continuity o] Precipitation in Storms
storm time at the end of the burst, the per
cent of the total storm rainfall before the start
Analysesto determinewhat per cent of the
total storm period experiencesrainfall revealed
of the maximum burst, and the per cent of
the total rainfall in the maximum burst.
an expectedtrend. The percentageof the total
storm period with rainfall increasedwith in-
Data in Table 3 showthe strongtrend, indi-
creasing area and decreasedwith increasing
cated earlier, for a major portion of the total
storm rainfall to occurr in the maximum storm storm duraton,as shownby the medianvalues
in Table 4.
burst. The point percentagesare somewhat
The foregoing discussionand statistics on
smaller than the areal values,but this may be
bursts emphasizethe great variability in their
due to samplingvagaries.The maximumburst characteristics under various storm conditions.
This is typical of almost any rainfall parameter
TABLE 3. Median Values for Maximum examinedin midwesternrainstorms,particularly
Storm Bursts those of the warm seasonthat produce most
of the intense rainfalls.
Per Cent of Per Cent of
Storm Time Total Storm Relation BetweenRain Type, Storm Type, and
Rainfall Time Distributions
Start End
Area, of of Before During Rain type. The distributionsof rain type by
Sq Mi Burst Burst Burst Burst quartile are summarizedin Table 5. Percent-
age frequenciesare shown for each of seven
First-Quartile Storms precipitationtypes that includerain and snow,
Point 0 36 0 71 steady rain, rainshowers,thunderstorms,rain-
50-400 0 37 0 77 showersand steady rain mixed, thunderstorms
Second-QuartileStorms and rainshowersmixed, and thunderstormswith
Point 17 67 14 70 hail.
50-400 16 62 8 79 The predominatingtype(s) of precipitation
was determined for each storm from considera-
Third-Quartile Storms
Point 42 78 24 62
tion of observations made within and surround-
50-400 46 82 25 69 ing the network at Weather Bureau stationsand
by Water Survey observersand upon analyses
Fourth-Quartile Storms
Point 73 100 43 57
of synoptic weather maps. Occasionally,diffi-
50-400 72 96 39 59 culty was encounteredin differentiatingbetween
rainshowers and thunderstorms. However,both
 Time Distribution 1015

TABLE 5. Distribution of Stormsby Quartile and Rain Type on 400 Square Miles

l•Iumber of
Quartile R, B* R RW TRW RW, R TRW, RW TRW, A Cases

1 1.2 6.1 12.2 43.9 7.3 13.4 15.8 82

2 2.2 15.4 16.5 42.9 4.4 13.2 5.5 91
3 3.1 15.4 13.8 30.7 3.1 23.1 10.8 65
4 0.0 8.7 13.0 17.4 13.0 34.8 13.0 23
Combined 1.9 11.9 14.3 37.9 5.7 17.6 10.7 261

* R -- Continuousrain, B -- Snow, RW -- Rainshower, TRW - Thunderstorm, A -- Hail.

are unstabletypes associatedwith convective
storms, and the meteorologicaldistinctionbe-
tween them in heavy stormsis difficult to eval-
uate. A major purposeserved by Table 5 is
to illustrate the frequencyof stable precipita-
tion types (R, S), unstabletypes (RW, TRW),
and combinationsof these two major classes.
For stormsin which the major burst occurred
in the first, second,or third quartile, thunder-
storms were the most frequent rain type. In
the fourth-quartile storms,the combinationof
rainshowersand thunderstormspredominated.
Thesl stormstend to last longerthan the other
quartile storms, thus frequently consistingof
a number of individual storms of varying in-
tensity.
Storm type. Analyses of synoptic storm
typesin the variousquartilestormsshowedno
strong trend for a particular type of storm
to dominate in a particular quartile. Storms
were classifiedinto six basic types and percent-
age frequenciesdeterminedfor each type in
eachquartile.Stormtypesusedwerecoldfront,
warm front, stationary front, occludedfront,
low pressurecenters,and air mass storms.A
trend was noted for a much larger percentage
of the fourth-quartilestormsto be associated
with combinationsof the storm types than oc-
curred with the other quartile types, which
might be expectedsincethesestormsare longer
(seebelow), giving more chancefor several
storm types to occur.
quartile storms were most often in the duration
group of 12 to 24 hours.Combiningall storms,
42% fell into the duration grouping of less
than 12 hours,33% in the 12 to 24 hour group,
and 25% exceeded24 hours in duration.
Storm Shape and Orientation
The runoff characteristicsin heavy storms
are influenced by the shapes and movements
of the storms. The shape factor in the Illinois
storms was investigatedfor areas of 50 to 400
square miles. However, because some storms
were large, storm shapes could not be deter-
mined reliably in many caseson areas smaller
than 400 squaremiles.
For rainfall periods of I to 12 hours on 400
square miles, elliptical patterns predominated,
accountingfor 51% of the cases.Stormswithout
a closedcenter that showedan elongatedpat-
tern of isohyetsoutward from a single region
of heaviest rainfall near the network border
were consideredelliptical, in addition to the
typical closed-centerelliptical storms (Figures
7a and 7b). Multicellular patterns, thosechar-
TABLE 6. PercentageDistribution of
Quartile Types
Per Cent of Cases for
Given Duration
(Hours) Quartile
Frequency
Quartile < 12 12-24 > 24 (%)

Quartile,Duration Relations I 45 29 26 32
As shownin Table 6, fourth-quartile storms 2 50 33 17 34
3 35 42 23 25
occurredmost often with durationsgreater than
4 22 26 52 9
24 hours, whereas first-quartile and second-
quartile stormsoccurredmost frequentlywith AllStorms 42 33 25 100
durationsless than 12 hours, and the third-
 stronglyfor all storms,regardless
of meanrain-
fall or storm duration.
The movement of stormswas closelyassoci-
ated with the orientation of the storm patterns.
Approximately 45% of the network storms
moved from the SW or WSW. Complex move-
ments in which indiv{dual showersmoved from
two or more directionsduring the storm period
a. CLOSED ELLIPTICAL b. OPEN ELLIPTICAL
ranked next, with 17% of the cases.Table 7
showsthe percentagefrequencydistributionof
the storm pattern orientations.
The data in Table 7 are in closeagreement
with other Illinois studies. An analysis of 106
storms on the 10-square-milenetwork in which
mean rainfall exceeded 0.50 inch also showed
orientationsmost frequently from the SW and
WSW. A study of the large-scale,outstanding
½. MULTICELLULAR d. BANDED
flood-producingstorms in Illinois [Huff and
Fig. 7. Major types of storm patterns. Semonin,1960] revealedthat the most frequent
orientation of the storm centers was from WSW
acterized by several closedisohyetswithin the through W to WNW. A detailed study of 10
network, ranked secondwith 25% of the cases large-scalestorms in the period from 1951-1960
(Figure 7c). Banded patterns, which produce in which the 12-hour rainfall exceeded 8 inches
two or more bands of rainfall separated by at the storm center revealed a median orienta-
areas of relatively light rainfall, accountedfor tion of 270 degreeswith an averagewind di-
19% of the storms in the 1- to 12-hour group rection in the layer from 5000 to 20,000 feet
(Figure 7d). Indefinite patterns, thosetoo com- of 255 degrees.A study of radar-depictedpre-
plex or too fiat to classify,accountedfor the cipitationlines [Changnonand Huff, 1961] also
other 5%. showed a WSW orientation and movement
As rainfall durations increased to 24 hours,most frequently.
the three maior patterns(elliptical,multicellu- 'Two pertinent facts are brought out by the
lar, banded) occurredwith nearly equal fre- orientation study. First, as the intensity and
quency.Examinationof the influenceof rain- areal extent of the flood-producingstorm in-
fall volume (storm mean rainfall) revealeda creases,the movement of the storm, and con-
strongdominationby elliptical patterns (59% sequently the orientation of the storm core,
of the cases)with arealmeansup to 1.50inches. veers from SW-WSW toward W. Secondly,the
For stormswith meansfrom 1.50 to 1.99 inches, storm pattern is oriented, on the average,ap-
there was little differencein the frequenciesfor proximately 15 degreesin a clockwisedirection
each of the three maior patterns. With areal from the averagewind flow in the steeringlayer.
means of 2 inchesor greater, banded patterns This displacementprobably results from the
becamethe most frequent type, accountingfor
approximately50% of the cases.Thus, there
existsa trend for the storm patterns to become TABLE 7. PercentageFrequency of Storm
Pattern Orientations
more complexwith increasingrainfall duration
and rainfall volume.
Assignment
of a pattern shapewasmostdif- Direction Per Cent Direction Per Cent
ficult with lhe smaller areas, especially the
50-square-milearea, since frequently only a S I WNW 5
SSW 11 NW 6
small part of a major storm center or storm
SW 22 NNW 3
zone would extend over the sampling area. WSW 23 Complex 17
When it was possibleto assigna shapeto the W 12
smallerareas,the ellipticalshapespredominated
 Time Distribution 1017
recognized trend for new cellsto developon Figure 8a shows the characteristics of the
the rightflankof the existingstormmass[New- pattern in sucha storm. The shapewould be
ton and Newton, 1959], and the new cell de- elliptical most frequently. The average ratio
velopmentintensifieswith increasingstorm betweenthe major and minor axis of the central
strength. The trend for the rotation of the isohyet is approximately 1.7 under the con-
storm pattern in a clockwise direction in the ditions shown here [Stout and Huff, 1962].
larger, more intense storms is believed to re- The most frequent direction of movement is
sult from the greaterinfluenceof high-level from the WSW, and the most commonstorm
windson steeringthe storms,sincethe more type is a cold front. Becausenew storm cell de-
intensestormstend to build to higherlevels. velopmentis favored on the right flank of
This trend is supportedby results of the existingstorms [Newton and Newton, 1959],
Changnon-Huff study of radar precipitation the rainfall gradienttendsto be greaterin the
lines mentioned above. region immediatelysouth of the rainfall core.
The storm center is showndisplacedfrom the
STATISTICAL STORM MODELS
areal center, a most likely occurrencefrom
Figure 8 is an exampleof a statisticalstorm geometric considerations in the absence of a
model for a first-quartile,3-hour storm with preferred storm path through the area.
a mean rainfall of 2 inches on an area of 100 Figure 8b shows the time distribution asso-
square miles. This model was derived fromciatedwith the storms,basedupon the median
medianand modelvaluesof stormparameters time distributionof Figure 2, the burst char-
discussed
in the foregoingsectionsand from acteristicsof Table 3, and the double burst
other publishedinformation.The exampleis modein 3-hourstormsshownby other statistics
based on the assumptionthat the user is compiledin the Illinois study. Figure 8c shows
interested
in the averageor mostfrequentcon- an average area-depth relation for a mean rain-
ditions associated with the storm described fall of 2 incheson 100 squaremiles,basedupon
above.Basedon publisheddata, the 2-inch a stu'dyby Huff and Neill [1957]. Tables and
mean correspondsapproximatelyto a 10-year figuresto facilitatepreparationof stormmodels
event [U.S. WeatherBureau,1957; Huff and such as Figure 8 under various storm conditions
Neill, 1959]. will appear in a forthcomingresearchreport.

0 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.4 3.0

TIME, HOURS
O. STORM PATTERN, MOTION AND TYPE b, TIME DISTRIBUTION
3.5

3.0
2.5

2.0
0 2. I0 25 50 75 I00
AREA, SQUAREMILES
c. AREA-DEPTH RELATION FOR TOTAL STORM

Fig. 8. Statistical
modelof 3-hour,first-quarQle
stormon100sqmi.
1018 •.a. I-IUFP

The antecedentrainfall for periodsof several given area. Thus, on the 100-square-milearea,
days is often of major interest to the hydrolo- the probability of I inch or more rainfall on
gist, particularly if his problem involves rural the precedingday is lessthan 10%. Antecedent
basins as opposedto urban. Data from three rainfall statisticsmay vary considerablywith
dense networks of 10, 100, and 400 square climatologicalregion; consequently,the statis-
miles in central Illinois have been used to obtain tics in Table 8 should be used only as a first
probability estimatesof the magnitude of rain- approximationfor the Midwest or other regions
fall for periods of I to 10 days before heavy with similar climate and topography.
storms, defined as those in which the areal
SU.-YI.-YIARY AND CONCLUSIONS
mean rainfall exceeded I inch. A more detailed
separation of heavy storms by duration and Data from two concentratedrain gage net-
intensity was not practical with the 10-year works in central Illinois were used to develop
to 12-year samples. time distribution relationshipsin heavy storms
Table 8 shows the estimates obtained from for areas ranging up to 400 squaremiles. The
the 12-yearrecordon the network of 100 square relationshipshave beenpresentedin probability
miles and comparisonson the three areas for terms to provide quantitative information on
a 1-day period. The antecedentrainfall proba- interstormvariability.
bilities vary with area. Means exceedingI inch The constructonof storm modelsfor hydro-
on 400 square miles usually result from the logic applicationshas been illustratedthrough
presenceof a relatively large, intense storm use of the time distributions,supplementedby
system,whereasa mean of I inch on 10 square available data on the spatial distribution of
miles may result from a large or small system, storms and other essential storm factors. This
such as an isolated air mass storm. Conse- capability should contribute materially to the
quently, for a given probability and antecedent alleviation of designproblemsdependentupon
period, the antecedentmean rainfall increases the time and spacedistributionof precipitation.
with increasing area. Of interest in Table 8 The relationshipsare consideredrepresentative
is the relatively low probability of heavy rain- of the Midwest and other regions of similar
fall on the day precedinga heavy storm on a precipitation climate and physiography.
It was found that the time distributions could
be representedbest by relating per cent of
total storm rainfall to per cent of total storm
TABLE 8. Probability Distribution of Antecedent time for storms grouped accordingto whether
Rainfall for Storm Means ExceedingOne the heaviestrainfall occurredin the first, second,
Inch on 100 Square Miles third, or fourth quarter of the storm period.
When so grouped,the effectsof mean rainfall,
Mean (in.) Equaled or Exceededfor storm duration, and other storm factors were
Given Number of AntecedentDays minor and erratic in behavior. Area was found
Probability to be a minor factor but consistent in it effect
(%) 1 2 3 5 10
upon the characteristicsof the time distribu-
tion.
5 1.40 1.70 2.00 2.20 3.45
10 0.85 1.25 1.42 1.60 2.65 First-quartile and second-quartilestorms oc-
20 0.32 0.70 0.75 1.20 1.80 curred most frequently and fourth-quartile
30 0.11 0.39 0.40 0.85 1.35 storms most infrequently. Within quartiles,
50 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.36 0.83
70 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.45
long-durationstorms (over 24 hours) predomi-
90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.22 nated in the fourth-quartile,stormsof moderate
length (12-24 hours) were most frequent with
1-Day Probabilitieson 10 and 400 sq. mi. the third-quartile type, and short-duration
10 4OO stormswere most commonin the first-quartile
5 1.05 1.80 and second-quartilegroups.
10 0.59 1.20
The number of bursts in the Illinois storms
3O 0. O7 0.28
50 0.01 0.03 rangedfrom I to 14. Single-burststormspre-
dominatedwith durationsof lessthan 3 hours,
 Time Distribution 1019

whereas,combiningall storms, 2-4 bursts oc- drol., Symposium on Design of Hydrological

curred most frequently. Networks, 1966.
Huff, F. A., and J. C. Neill, Rainfall relations on
The heavy storms were found to have an small areas in Illinois, Bull. 4•, Ill. State Water
elliptical shapemost frequently, with an orien- Surv., Urbana, Illinois, 1957.
tation of the major axis from SW-NE or WSW- Huff, F. A., and J. C. Neill, Frequency relations
ENE. However, on the largestarea investigated for storm rainfall in Illinois, Bull. 46, Ill. State
Water Surv., Urbana, Illinois, 1959.
(400 sq mi) a trend for the pattern to change
Huff, F. A., and R. G. Semonin,An investigation
from elliptical to multicellular or banded was of flood-producing storms in Illinois, Topics
noted as the mean rainfall exceeded 1.5 inches Eng. Meteorol., Meteorol. Mono. 4, Am. Mete-
and siorm durations exceeded 24 hours. Thund- orol. $oc., Boston, Mass., 1960.
erstorms were the most common precipitation Newton, Chester W., and Harriet Rodebush New-
ton, Dynamical interactions between large con-
type and coldfronts the most frequentsynoptic vective clouds and environment with vertical
storm type. shear, J. Meteorol., 16(5), 483-496, 1959.
Stout, G. E., and F. A. Huff, Studies of severe
REFERENCES rainstorms in Illinois, J. Hydraul. Div., Proc,
Am. $oc. Civil Engrs., HY 4, July, 1962.
Changnon,S. A., Jr. and F. A. Huff, Studies of U.S. Weather Bureau, Rainfall intensity-fre-
radar-depictedprecipitation lines, $ci. Rept. 2, quency regime, Part 1--The Ohio Valley, Tech.
Contract No. AF 19 (604)-4940, Ill. State Water Paper 29, U.S. Dept. Commerce, Washington,
Surv.,
Urbana,
Illinois,
1961. D.C.,1957.
Huff, F. A., and S. A. Changnon,Jr., Develop- _
ment and utilization of Illinois .precipitation (Manuscript received March 24, 1967;
networks,Publ. No. 67, Intern. Assoc.Sci. Hy- revisedJune 1, 1967.)