June 2011

2058
e-book
Reflections
From participants
of the workshop
Edited By
Wendy McGuinness
Jessica Prendergast
Louise Grace-Pickering
Foreword By
Sir Paul Callaghan
Report name StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future Reflections: From participants of the workshop

Published Copyright © Sustainable Future Institute Limited, June 2011

ISBN 978-1-877473-85-2 (PDF)
This document is available at www.sustainablefuture.info and may be reproduced or
cited provided the source is acknowledged.

Prepared by The Sustainable Future Institute, as part of Project 2058

Editors Wendy McGuinness, Jessica Prendergast and Louise Grace-Pickering

Contributors Stuart Barson; Rachel Bolstad; Anthony Cole; Yvonne Curtis; Scott Dalziell; Debbie
Dawson; Roger Dennis; Krystal Gibbons; Sue Hanrahan; Neville Henderson; Beat
Huser; Maria Ioannou; Damian Lawrence; Ella Lawton; Richard Logan; Michael
Moore-Jones; Christian Penny; Sue Peoples; Peter Rankin; Heike Schiele; Phil Tate;
Roger Tweedy; Christian Williams; and Murray Wu.

About the Institute The Sustainable Future Institute is an independently funded non-partisan think tank.
The main work programme of the Institute is Project 2058. The strategic aim of this
project is to promote integrated long-term thinking, leadership and capacity-building
so that New Zealand can effectively seek and create opportunities and explore and
manage risks over the next 50 years. It is hoped that Project 2058 will help develop
dialogue among government ministers, policy analysts and members of the public about
alternative strategies for the future of New Zealand.

For further information The Sustainable Future Institute

Phone (04) 499 8888
Level 2, 5 Cable Street
PO Box 24222
Wellington 6142
New Zealand
www.sustainablefuture.info

Disclaimer The Sustainable Future Institute has used reasonable care in collecting and presenting
the information provided in this publication. However, the Institute makes no
representation or endorsement that this resource will be relevant or appropriate for
its readers’ purposes and does not guarantee the accuracy of the information at any
particular time for any particular purpose. The Institute is not liable for any adverse
consequences, whether they be direct or indirect, arising from reliance on the content
of this publication. Where this publication contains links to any website or other
source, such links are provided solely for information purposes and the Institute is not
liable for the content of such website or other source.

Publishing

The Sustainable Future Institute is grateful for the work of Creative Commons which
inspired our approach to copyright. This work is available under a Creative Commons
Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 New Zealand Licence. To view a copy of
this licence visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/nz
Contents
Foreword
Sir Paul Callaghan________________________________________________________________________ 1

Introduction
Wendy McGuinness_______________________________________________________________________ 2

Part I | Vision: Lessons from StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future_____________________________ 3

Response to StrategyNZ Hui 2011
Christian Penny__________________________________________________________________________ 4

An early personal reflection as a participant

Yvonne Curtis___________________________________________________________________________ 5

Common issues, striking points and a challenge

Peter Rankin_____________________________________________________________________________ 7

Reflection on the StrategyNZ workshop

Anthony Cole__________________________________________________________________________ 10

Weighing the future

Richard Logan__________________________________________________________________________ 12

Personal reflection
Damian Lawrence_______________________________________________________________________ 13

Rethinking economic growth

Scott Dalziell___________________________________________________________________________ 15

Competition as a motivator
Roger Dennis___________________________________________________________________________ 16

Part II | Foresight: Opportunities and obstacles to New Zealand's long-term success__________ 17

New Zealand sans frontières
Stuart Barson___________________________________________________________________________ 18

Education for the future – what does it mean?

Rachel Bolstad__________________________________________________________________________ 19

Introducing New Zealand students to the world

Michael Moore-Jones_____________________________________________________________________ 21

Beyond the growth paradigm

Christian Williams ______________________________________________________________________ 22

Enough is enough
Debbie Dawson_________________________________________________________________________ 23

Balancing opportunities and obsticles

Maria Ioannou__________________________________________________________________________ 24
To kill or not to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs
Heike Schiele___________________________________________________________________________ 28

How to attract and retain talent – a youth perspective

Krystal Gibbons_________________________________________________________________________ 30

Productive diversity – learning to relate

Sue Hanrahan___________________________________________________________________________ 31

Politics as if the future mattered

Phil Tate_______________________________________________________________________________ 32

Terrible tragedy of the south seas

Sue Peoples_____________________________________________________________________________ 34

Part III | Strategy: The case for a strategic approach____________________________________ 36

The need for a national strategy for a new economy
Beat Huser_____________________________________________________________________________ 37

Strategy in a non-linear world

Richard Logan__________________________________________________________________________ 38

Four plausable futures for Waikato

Beat Huser_____________________________________________________________________________ 43

The magic is in the process!

Ella Lawton____________________________________________________________________________ 45

Part IV | Execution: How to initiate change___________________________________________ 47

Strategy mapping – A technique for facilitating strategy
Murray Wu_____________________________________________________________________________ 48

Constitutional review – thoughts on capacity building and engagement

Roger Tweedy__________________________________________________________________________ 49

Increasing participation in decision-making: How to initiate change

Neville Henderson_______________________________________________________________________ 50

Part V | Final reflections__________________________________________________________ 52

Reflection
Louise Grace-Pickering___________________________________________________________________ 53

Resonance
Jessica Prendergast_______________________________________________________________________ 54
Foreword
Sir Paul Callaghan
Long-term vision is something we tend to avoid
in New Zealand, with the possible exception of
Mäori, who have greater reason to focus on the
development of their assets for future generations
of mokopuna. But I will argue here that vision
is essential to any strategy aimed at enhancing
prosperity.
There is a myth that we are an egalitarian society,
a great place to bring up children. But in income
disparity, child mortality, imprisonment rates and
most other negative social indicators, we are among
the worst in the OECD. The second myth is that
we are clean and green. In truth, the reality is
altogether different. Like other developed countries
we have despoiled our environment to eke out a
measure of prosperity, and we therefore have no
moral high ground from which to preach to others.
Our valuable dairy industry severely impacts
our rivers and lakes. Our pastoral industries are
significant emitters of greenhouse gases. The third
myth is that we, as New Zealanders, do not need
prosperity, that we have ‘lifestyle’ instead. But we
complain that our health system cannot afford
to meet our needs and that our infrastructure
is decrepit. Now we face significant economic
stress following the Christchurch earthquake.
Furthermore, the ‘lifestyle’ argument is hard to
sustain, given New Zealanders are the second
hardest working in the OECD. But when we look
at how hard we work against how productive we
are, in comparison to other OECD countries, we
see that New Zealanders are amongst the least
productive.
But we have it in our power to change all that. We
have an excellent education system, as good as the
Danes or Swedes. If we care for our environment
and create a just, equitable and creative society,
a ‘place where talent wants to live’, then we
2058
can attract the best in the world, and provide
opportunities for our most talented Kiwis to see
their future here. Imagine what we could achieve
if we built a strategy around, and made central to
our thinking, the existing success of our emerging
knowledge sector, gearing our education system
accordingly. That is the challenge for us all.
StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future created a place to
discuss this challenge. I hope you enjoy reading the
following reflections from participants and may
these and other discussions lead you to participate
in shaping New Zealand’s long-term future.
Sir Paul Callaghan, Kiwibank’s 2011 New Zealander
of the Year
Sir Paul Callaghan (GNZM, FRS, FRSNZ) was selected as
Kiwibank’s 2011 New Zealander of the year for his service to
science in the fields of nanotechnology and magnetic resonance.
He holds a Doctor of Philosophy from the University of Oxford,
was made Professor of Physics at Massey University in 1984, and
was appointed Alan MacDiarmid Professor of Physical Sciences
in 2001. Sir Paul is the founding director of both the multi-
university MacDiarmid Institute for Advanced Materials and
Nanotechnology and of Magritek. Sir Paul is past president of
the Academy Council of the Royal Society of New Zealand and
the current president of the International Society of Magnetic
Resonance. The distinctions he has received include, becoming a
Fellow of the Royal Society of London, Ampere Prize, Rutherford
Medal, Principal Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit,
KEA/NZTE World Class New Zealander Award, the Sir Peter
Blake Medal, James Cook Research Fellowship, the Günther
Laukien Prize for Magnetic Resonance and in 2010 he shared the
New Zealand Prime Minister’s Science Prize.
STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 1
 Introduction
Wendy McGuinness
In late March 2011 the Sustainable Future Institute
hosted StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future, a
two-day workshop held in Wellington. The
event provided a place and a process in which
New Zealanders could consider, prepare and
communicate strategy maps for our country’s
long-term future. One hundred participants
were brought together from a diverse range of
backgrounds, to learn from each other, share
ideas, and then create visions for New Zealand and
strategies for their execution.
The first step after the event was for the Institute
to acknowledge the significant support we received
from a wide range of individuals and organisations,
and to honour that support by documenting
and acting as a repository for the considerable
amount of material that was developed during the
workshop. This includes publishing three post-
workshop documents: StrategyNZ: Mapping our
Future Strategy Maps: From Te Papa to the Legislative
Council Chamber; a working paper documenting
feedback on the workshop, and this e-book, which
brings together a range of reflections and next steps
from participants.
This e-book, the Institute’s first, is organised
into 5 parts. The participants from StrategyNZ:
Mapping our Future are in effect ‘co-authors’,
and the quality of this book is a testament to their
knowledge, motivation and desire to pursue, with
clarity and purpose, a long-term direction for
New Zealand.
Part 1: Vision – Lessons from StrategyNZ:
Mapping our Future includes reflections on the
workshop and comments that enrich and extend
the visions for the future of New Zealand that
were developed there.
Part II: Foresight – Opportunities and obstacles
to New Zealand’s long-term success includes
participants responses which focussed on the
opportunities and challenges that New Zealand
will need to address strategically as it works
towards becoming a country ‘where talent wants
to live’.
Part III: Strategy – The case for a strategic
approach includes reflections which focus on the
imperative for strategy, the role of government and
other participants, and tools and processes that can
be used to achieve the desired strategy.
2 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS
Part IV: Execution – How to initiate change
contributions in this section remind us that
the execution of a strategy for the future
requires a structured approach to change, and
communication that facilitates people’s engagement
and participation in a complex development with
uncertain outcomes.
Part V: Final reflections – Common threads
includes two final reflections on StrategyNZ:
Mapping our Future from staff members of the
Sustainable Future Institute. They comment on
the areas of consensus that emerged from both the
workshop and the contributions to this e-book.
These final words encourage the thinking and
conversations from StrategyNZ: Mapping our
Future not just to continue, but to be acted upon
for New Zealand’s future.
We hope you enjoy the 30 reflections of these
committed New Zealanders and find them
stimulating. We welcome comments on the
authors’ work: either a simple ‘like’, or a more
detailed response provided online.
To my co-authors, thank you for taking the
time to share your thoughts and ideas. Only by
developing a shared understanding of what we
want for future generations, and the challenges
and opportunities that lie ahead, can we develop
a pathway forward. Thank you for sharing your
reflections and your ‘next steps’.
All the best
Wendy McGuinness
Chief Executive
Sustainable Future Institute
Wendy McGuinness is the founder and Chief Executive of the
Sustainable Future Institute. As a Fellow Chartered Accountant
(FCA) specialising in risk management, Wendy has worked in
both the public and private sectors. She holds an NZCC, BCom
and an MBA, and has also completed several environmental
papers. In 2004 she established the Sustainable Future Institute as
a way of contributing to New Zealand’s long-term future. Wendy
also sits on the boards of New Zealand Futures Trust and the
Katherine Mansfield Birthplace.
2058
 1. Vision
Lessons from StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future

Why do we as an individual, business, city or country

desire a new strategy? We need to develop a clear
purpose for what we are trying to achieve and an
understanding of the values and ethics that will shape
our thinking and actions.

The StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future workshop

inspired a wide range of reflection and comment
from participants. This section includes reflections
on visions for the long-term future of New Zealand.

2058 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 3

 Response to the StrategyNZ Hui 2011
Christian Penny
What struck me most was the way that when you
push out the vision to fifty years, the similarities of
that shared vision are suddenly transparent.
Everyone wants to live in a country that protects
the landscape and creates a providing economy and
nurtures and grows the role of Mäori. Suddenly
it seemed so clear. All of this was very enlivening
because mostly we live with a very different
dominant reality – that is, the work of making it
all happen, day in, day out.
I recently heard Harry Tam, a policy manager
from Te Puni Kökiri, state ‘what we need is ngä
moemoea, dreams’ – and here it was – on the
waterfront of Wellington, a dream for our nation.
The dream I heard is: a small country commits to
a set of key values long-term. A set of values that
override the governmental solutions of the day
and keep directing us. Keep us on course. Keep us
ethical. Keep us clear. A radical idea really. But
essential and really sensible.
In a way, that was the gift of the four days. We
spoke this vision aloud to ourselves. I do not think
that was all that we had hoped we could achieve
but with such diverse positions arriving together
I think that was enough. And, you could think
that that outcome was always likely when groups
of such diversity come together for such a short
time span. The groups have to reach a unanimous
outcome because the risk of not doing so is too
high. Interpersonally I mean.
But the crucial thing here is: we are stopping to
form a vision and devoting some space to working
that out. That is important. What we did not
do was devote enough time or structure to the
‘how’s’. That was the disappointment.
If we were carrying on today I would be keen to
take the goals we arrived at as the starting point.
And here lies the real concrete challenge – how,
and what steps need to be taken? This really
interests me.
4 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS
I think there was a value in working fast. It asks
people to get on and offer. However I think we
could have gained more from working more fully
with a tikanga marae framework. Addressing first
and foremost who we are, where we come from and
why we are here. I like imagining this. It feels edgy
and a little beyond what we normally do in this
sort of world but it might have carried us to a more
human; personal and connected vision of who we
are and hence enabled us to ‘feel’ this work more.
I think then we could work within tighter frames
in developing our offers. Work step by step.
Presenting, critiquing and re-researching, re-
presenting etc. We use this process all the time
in the theatre and in screen when we are
developing new work. I think more leadership
here, tighter time frames, homework, and all of the
teams being tasked and cast, would present bolder
more ‘real’ offers.
Of course this is clear post the attempt.
I loved that we were close to those ‘wise’ folk. This
is important. Their voices need to be heard more
and we need forums for this conversation.
No reira ngä mihi ki a koutou mä
Te whanau kua whakahaerea
He mea miharo ngä hua kua puta ake
Christian Penny (Tainui, Ngapuhi) is the Director of Toi Whakaari
NZ Drama School. For the past nine years he has headed the
Masters in Directing at Toi Whakaari co-delivered with Victoria
University, Wellington. He is a theatre director by training, with
an emphasis on New Zealand work and classic adaptations. He is a
2009 alumni of The Leadership NZ programme.
2058
An early personal reflection as a participant
Yvonne Curtis, published in Future Times 2011/Vol 2 (March 2011)
The Sustainable Future Institute embarked on a
very ambitious two day workshop in March 2011
as the next step in their Project 2058. It involved
over a hundred people as planners, speakers,
workshop participants and resource people. Wendy
McGuinness cast her net far and wide when she
began planning for this event and inspired many
talented people with a wide range of skills and
resources to help her make this workshop come
alive in a special way. The participants who chose,
or were chosen, to take part, came from numerous
walks of life and places and their ages ranged from
late teens to over seventy. For two days with, for
many, very little sleep, we worked in ten teams of
about ten people, on a project that for most was
very different from our everyday experiences. We
were challenged to consider the key words that
could describe our desired future for New Zealand
in 2058, as well as to develop a strategic plan that
might get us there. To visually compliment this,
each team had to design a new Coat of Arms for
New Zealand and a front cover of The Listener for
31 March 2058, which highlighted our strategys’
success. These elements were then moulded
into four winning (four out of the ten tables’
presentations) ten minute power point presentation
to be presented to MPs in the Legislative Council
Chamber on the evening of the second day.
To support the teams, there were various roving
experts in communication and strategy planning.
For example, each team included one design
student from Otago University who had the task of
actually designing and drawing a coat of arms, the
cover of The Listener and slides for the power point
presentation from the ideas developed by the team.
As a participant it was very energising to be
thinking, planning and working together with nine
other people, whom all but one, I had met for the
first time that morning at the team table. We all
obviously cared that New Zealand in 2058 was still
going to be a place that we would all enjoy living in.
2058
In preparation for the task, during the first
morning and early afternoon, knowledgeable
speakers addressed many of the issues we needed
to consider when formulating our strategy for the
future. The information provided was excellent,
but was too much to take in in one sitting. I am
very grateful that most of the speeches and power
point presentations are readily available on the
Institute’s website (www.sustainablefuture.info)
to be reflected on later.
It really was a very tight schedule and working
with our team, I was impressed at how quickly
all settled to the task, made contributions and the
final presentation was very much a full team effort.
Very early on, one of the younger members of the
team volunteered to be the spokesperson for the
presentation and we were able to build our story
around this. The final key words that represented
our vision did not come easily and the searching
for agreement helped to build a team spirit.
Listening to the ten presentations for the judging
was also very inspiring. There were common
themes, but also unexpected differences that were
very thought provoking and I am looking forward
to having more time to re-read and listen to the
presentations at my leisure.
My immediate feeling, after the end of the two
days, was of satisfaction and delight that I felt so
comfortable to be working with an unknown
group of New Zealanders and that we were able to
complete the task in harmony. But as I reflect now
some time later, I suspect that because our primary
focus was on completing the assigned tasks on
time, we went with wishful thinking rather than
reality when determining aspects of what might be
possible. ‘Flight’ mode is not really a good space to
have to make substantial long-term decisions that
could lead to the better future we all were seeking.
At the end some of us were left wondering how
the issues of the first morning presentations were
acknowledged in the strategies presented by the
following lunchtime.
STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 5
 I really appreciated that despite the feeling of
urgency to complete the task on time, Mäori
protocols and practises introduced into the
programme provided valuable quiet times for re-
energising and reflection. It was also useful to have
time to sleep on the ideas before having to make
final decisions the next morning.
From first impressions, there were a number of
common themes expressed in all the presentations:
•• a general acknowledgement of the bi-cultural
history of New Zealand and possible ways this
could be reflected in the future;
•• New Zealanders welcome the diversity of
cultures we have here now;
•• all are hoping for a prosperous New Zealand for
all, but acknowledge that that must not be at too
high an environmental cost;
•• good relationships and a healthy community
were more important than many material goods;
and
•• Aotearoa was also accepted in many of the
presentations as an alternative name for New
Zealand in 2058. The Southern Cross was the
one element from the present coat of arms that
appeared in many of the new versions.
6 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS
The workshop is a very important first step in a
longer more reflective process to find a possible
strategy or strategies that could encourage change
towards a more sustainable future for New
Zealand. The data and thinking that has been
gathered in this workshop has the potential to give
a new impetus to this on-going task. I hope that
many of the participants will continue thinking
about what is possible and will seek out more
information and continue to enrich and deepen the
visions and strategies that were developed over the
two days.
Yvonne Curtis has been active in chemistry tertiary education for
over 30 years and has been involved with the New Zealand Futures
Trust since 1982 as a researcher, a workshop facilitator, a writer for
and editor of Future Times, and at various times has been on the
executive and the Board.
2058
StrategyNZ visions: notes on common issues,
striking points and a challenge
Peter Rankin
The visions and strategy maps prepared by the ten
separate groups at the Sustainable Future Institute’s
StrategyNZ session had many points in common.
These notes provide a quick summation rather
than a scientific analysis.
Community Values
Community was emphasised more often than
individuality. Values for Aotearoa New Zealand
included: egalitarian; equality in resource distribution;
social cohesion; sustainable communities; mauri;1
co-operation; community well-being.
Participation
Strong emphasis was given to the need for a more
participatory style of government. Terms used
included: transparent government; empowered and
connected people; inclusive society; participative
processes.
Gross National Happiness (GNH)
Several called for a GNH index to replace Gross
National Income (GNI); others described Aotearoa
New Zealand as the happiest nation on earth
emphasising: quality of life; redefining wealth; an
economy that serves society and environment; a
place to live, work, learn and grow. Competition
to match the GNI of other countries did not
feature despite a common emphasis on prosperity,
smart business, innovation etc. (see below).
Innovation, Opportunity, Research and
Development (R&D)
All groups saw Aotearoa New Zealand in the
future as a smarter place: a place of opportunity
that values smart business ideas; champions
innovation; realises the potential of earth and sea;
encourages and incentivises research; lifts R&D
expenditure to at least 5% of GDP.
Global Connectedness; Whakawhanaungatanga
Awareness of Aotearoa New Zealand as linked to
a wider world was widespread (interestingly with
no emphasis given to particular parts of the world
– neither the old links with Europe nor the new
with Asia). There were calls for bringing the world
closer; a borderless world; transcending geographic
boundaries; global co-operation; connecting to
other communities across the world.
1 mauri – the life force which all objects contain
2058
Kaitiakitanga; Sustainability
The word kaitiakitanga was used commonly as
groups called for: a restored environment; self-
sustaining society; healthy eco-systems; progressive
stewardship of resources.
Bi-culturalism
The language, symbols and metaphors used showed
that bi-culturalism was embedded in all the strategies.
All but one of the groups used the name Aotearoa
in place of, or in combination with, New Zealand.
In addition there was: support for bi-culturalism as
education for tolerance and valuing diversity; calls
to use bi-cultural success to lead the way in diversity;
and developing a post-settlement view of bi/multi-
culturalism. All the groups seem to have got to the
stage where the language and culture of Mäori is no
longer seen as just another tourism product but as
one of the few unique defining aspects of Aotearoa
New Zealand, compared with all those other places
settled by Anglo-Saxons and Celts.
Longer-term Thinking
There was, of course at a futures forum, an implicit
call for more future-oriented approaches. Explicit
proposals were made for: longer-term thinking
embedded in policy-making; societal leadership
through forward planning; commitment to our
grandchildren’s health and well-being; an office of
Strategic Foresight; a keeper of the long view.
Constitutional Reform; Citizen Charter
There was widespread feeling that current structures
of politics and government militated against longer-
term thinking, with specific calls for: a Citizens’
Charter Aotearoa; reform of the constitution; a
new written constitution; and developing a New
Zealand Constitution. Most called for a longer, four
or five year term for Parliament.
Education
Education was a core focus, seen as: a key to
future development; a smart education system;
personalised; innovative; fostering creativity; with
a need to invest in people (not farms); in youth;
education that equips people to harness talent;
all will be well educated; a major investment
in our children from birth to adulthood; direct
government investment into areas with large pay-
offs such as early childhood education and support.
STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 7
 Health
Health was generally treated more indirectly,
with many references to healthy outcomes –
healthy communities, health and well-being of our
mokopuna etc. – rather than to health interventions.
More specific references focused on pro-active,
preventative approaches; incentivising healthy
choices; tailored health care – right care, time and
place; preventative and monitoring health care.
Striking Points
Beyond all the common issues emerging from the
work of the ten groups, there were some striking
points worth thinking about and exploring.
Hospitals Flat lined [Avocado Group]
The Avocado group headlined the closure of New
Zealand’s last hospital.
Is that a good idea? What does it imply? How
could it happen?
I guess the point they were trying to get across
is the ‘future-thinking’ idea that policy should
concentrate on keeping people healthy rather than
waiting till they get sick to provide remedial care.
In some ways it is a typical public policy problem:
the rational, cost-effective approach is to promote
good health, but the politics demands a short term
response to treat sickness. Prevention – the fence at
the top of the cliff – attracts little political support;
indeed, efforts to promote health by encouraging
healthy eating are presented politically as a ‘nanny
state’ interference with freedom. But treatment
– the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff – has
a strong political force behind it: ‘my father has
emphysema and will die if the government does
not provide a place in a hospital with all the latest
technology’. Free public treatment is presented
almost as a ‘right’ regardless of the personal choices
that might have led to the need for treatment.
Successive governments have tried to put more
resources into preventative health care but keep
running up against pressure to shorten the queues –
even for elective surgery.
How can pressure be built for a longer-term
approach here?
Citizens’ Charter
There were several mentions of a charter or some
similar re-forming of the relationship between
government and people.
What is a citizens’ charter? What issues does it
address?
Dissatisfaction with government outcomes is often
not a result of a structural issue, but an information
imbalance – or a misapprehension of citizen power.
8 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS
Governments should be expected to assemble and
examine more information than individual citizens
do, and should be expected to take a broader,
longer-term view than individuals or special
interest groups. In general that is what the strategy
groups were asking government to do. But the
demand for a ‘citizens’ charter’ seems to be driven
by a feeling that ‘government’ has not listened to
the people. This is seen most clearly at the local
level when, e.g. ‘186 submissions were against
and only 28 for, but the council supported the
28’! ‘Consultation’ is not a referendum that tells
elected decision-makers to do what those who were
prepared to make submissions want: it is about
explaining, listening and deciding on the weight
of argument and evidence, not simple numbers.
Ironically, people also complain about government
doing only what the polls tell it to do, and about
government being driven by focus-groups.
Looking back over successive governments, the
most common fault is the weakness of government
efforts to set out issues, problems and options – to
spread information in a form and place that people
will access and can digest – and then to explain
the reasoning for the ultimate decision. Those
obligations exist now. A citizen charter might help
if it set out requirements for practical, effective
consultation – but one would need to look at what
has happened to previous efforts to do this under
the Town and Country Planning Act and then the
Resource Management Act. There is a tendency for
mandated consultative processes to shift into rituals
that are effectively controlled by interest groups
with the most money.
Net Exporter of Capital [Yellow Group]
Now that is a radical idea! I do not think it has ever
occurred in Aotearoa New Zealand’s history since
1840.
And a brilliant idea. The last few Budgets have
been focused more on convincing ‘Standard and
Poor’ not to downgrade our credit rating than on
growing the economy. And this is a long-standing
issue. Much effort when I first joined the Ministry
of Foreign Affairs in 1965 went into persuading
London that it could safely lend us more. Our
basic infrastructure (roads, harbours and the main
trunk line) owes quite a lot still to Vogel’s ability
to borrow in the 1880s.
In an increasingly global and hi-tech world,
power will reside even more with those who
have surpluses than with those who have
infantry divisions and aircraft carriers. Singapore
understands that. For a small, inter-dependent
country, being ‘mortgage free’ may be the first key
to freedom.
2058
How could it happen?
Those with surpluses include not only countries
(China, Saudi Arabia) but also ‘high net-worth
individuals’. Do we aim to attract more of
them as migrants (at least part-time, like Hong
Kong millionaires before 1997)? Make savings
compulsory? Can we manage a transition
from encouraging foreign investment in our
development to creating domestic savings sufficient
to take over the role?
And a challenge...
Inequality and a Cohesive Society
Several groups, and notably Sir Paul Callaghan in
his introductory speech, pointed to the correlation
between inequality and disruptive violence in
society. Yet the general thrust of the visions
and strategy maps pushes us towards a society
that retains, attracts and rewards innovation
and success. On a broader scale, intelligent
commentators say we will see a trend towards
greater inequality spreading and shifting from an
inter-country to an intra-country phenomenon. A
dramatic example is the claim that call-centre wages
are now the same in the USA and India.
So – can we expect to reverse this trend in
Aotearoa New Zealand? Or do we have to re-focus
on ways of managing inequality?
The important issue may not be inequality so
much as inequity.
People choosing to live on organic life-style blocks
in the Coromandel may not be driven to violent
protest against the multi-million dollar profits of
successful entrepreneurs. They may feel they did
have a valid choice and remain happy with the one
they made.
But 16 year old women in Porirua may not feel
they have the same opportunity to earn a multi-
million dollar salary as the CEO of a state-owned
enterprise. Indeed with youth unemployment
rising again towards 20%, they may well feel that
their end of the decile system does not offer them
many options at all.
2058
That I think is the key. All people, and particularly
young people, need to feel they have a realistic
possibility of achieving something, of discovering,
developing and enjoying their unique talents. If
their surroundings tell them that the ‘system’
offers them little chance of a future wider than
the dole and the benefit, they will make their
choice between a depressed resignation or an active
challenge to the ‘system’ – or any bit of it that gets
in their face.
If we regard the vision of a less equal future as
realistic, and we want a cohesive, innovative, safe
society with a high GNH that does not think of
income as the only measure of success, then we
must work at ensuring that everyone does have
reasonable opportunity to discover, develop and
enjoy the use of their talents. And we must work
at presenting role models of success that celebrate
skills rather than monetary wealth – a challenge that
the New Zealand Rugby Union is already facing!
If we are serious about a GNH index, then we
also need to focus attention on that rather than
setting goals (whether ‘aspirational’ or not) based
on comparing our per capita national income with
other countries. Those people, for whom money
income is the over-riding goal, will leave and go to
places where they have a better chance of mega-
salaries and mega-profits. But if we have learnt
better how to enable our young people to discover,
develop and enjoy their unique talents, we should
have little difficulty in replacing the skills we lose.
The greatest resource we have is not our potential
to grow more grass, or to dig up more coal: it is
the unrecognised and under-utilised talents of
our people.
Peter Rankin was Chief Executive of the New Zealand Planning
Council – Te Kaunihera Whakakaupapa mo Aotearoa from 1982
to 1990. Drawing on a degree in Classics (Auckland) and in Public
Policy (Harvard), and diverse experience in international relations
and trade, development assistance, management and farming, he
has been commenting on longer-term issues for Aotearoa New
Zealand since the 1970s.
STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 9
 Reflection on the StrategyNZ workshop
Anthony Cole
My name is Anthony Cole and I am the Kaihautü1
of the Centre for Postgraduate Studies, which
is a small private training establishment located
in the city of Palmerston North, New Zealand.
Our centre currently runs a Masters degree2 in
Aotearoatanga – a Mäori cultural approach to the
bible. This programme of postgraduate learning
is Government accredited and primarily funded
by the Pï hopatanga3. Our Taahuhu Mätauranga
Aotearoa teaching programme currently provides
postgraduate training for Minita-a-iwi4 within the
Anglican Church of New Zealand.
I am writing this short reflection on the
StrategyNZ workshop and think tank. I was
privileged to be able to attend the StrategyNZ
workshop and think tank with three of my
Masters students, currently enrolled in year 1 of
the Taahuhu Mätauranga Aotearoa programme.
These students are aiming to advance onto future
Doctoral studies and for this reason attendance
and involvement in the StrategyNZ workshop
and think tank provided a practical classroom for
what we were studying at the time (Kaitiakitanga).5
This reflection is about our experiences at the
StrategyNZ workshop.
The aim of our Taahuhu teaching programme is
to provide advanced studies where our students
have an opportunity to explore reality from the
reference points provided by a distinctly Mäori
view of the world. It was therefore very interesting
for us to step into a social teaching and research
process based on quite a western scientific or
academic view of the world. This shift in context
became evident within the first few minutes of the
two-day workshop that preceded the StrategyNZ
think tank. The classroom session run by Prof.
Peter Bishop was started without a Karakia6 or
formal welcome of the visiting teaching (Peter)
– something that would not have been done in a
Mäori cultural context of this kind. This is not
1 Kaihautü – director
2 The Taahuhu Mätauranga Aotearoa (TMAo)
3 The Mäori Bishops within the Anglican Church in Aotearoa/New Zealand
4 Minita-a-iwi – those who minister to the needs of iwi members. In New Zealand society, iwi are the largest form of social organisation in Mäori
culture. The word iwi literally means ‘people’ or ‘folk’ and can also imply the existence of a confederation of large social groups. Most Mäori in
pre-European times supported and identified with relatively smaller social groups called hapü (clans) and whänau (an extended family).
5 Kaitiakitanga – guardianship of tangata (whänau, hapü, iwi) and whenua (the natural world)
6 Karakia – may be approximated by the biblical ideas of prayer
7 Powhiri – a formal Mäori cultural welcome ceremony
8 Te Papa – the National Museum of New Zealand /Aotearoa which was our venue for the StrategyNZ workshop
10 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS
a criticism, but an observation that the cultural
values and ways honoured in this teaching space
were different to those we are familiar with –
different enough to be instantly noticed.
The four-day workshop and think tank was a
busy time. We came with a keen desire to learn,
to become actively involved and contribute in
whatever way we could to make the event a success
for all participants. To try and make the very best
use of this opportunity we also held a class session
into the evening going back over the teaching of
that day and sharing our collective experiences. We
found that the teaching in the two-day workshop
session was very engaging, but in our late night
sessions we had to work really hard to try and
understand just how the ideas presented could be
related back to Mäori cultural ideas and values that
we were more familiar with. Overall, it became
evident to us that this area of learning was of
great importance to the well-being of our people
and offered quite practical tools, many of which
we could adopt in our whakatupu mätauranga
(research) and ministry activities. In some cases
we felt that there were areas of learning presented
to us where our own cultural perspective and
knowing offered what we felt would have also
been helpful approaches to some of the problems
being explored. The workshop was engaging and
we all enjoyed the opportunity to meet and make
friends with so many other people who were
concerned about the same future concerns we
had been studying. We really enjoyed talks with
Peter Bishop and liked the idea of maybe writing
something providing a synthesis of our ideas and
those of Peter on this subject matter.
The first morning of the think tank brought an
unexpected change for us – a powhiri7 by the staff at
Te Papa8. For the first time in this StrategyNZ event
we were suddenly projected back into the familiar
ways, sounds and knowing of our own culture.
2058
This was a very sacred moment for us as we
joined our whänau9 in acknowledging the Tangata
Whenua10, the house of meeting (Te Papa), our
tüpuna Mäori11 and the manuhiri12 in waiata,13
karakia and whaikorero.14 This made possible a
sense of kotahitanga15 with the other think tank
participants that would otherwise have been
missing from this event for us.
The think tank was a fascinating journey for us
with amazing and sometimes shocking discoveries.
On the morning of the first day we sat and
listened to quite amazing presentations from very
distinguished speakers – this was a great honour
for us. We then broke into different teams to start
the strategy development process. This part of
the think tank process was quite a big step for us.
We found our Taahuhu röpü16 split up into teams
of other people who for the most part were not
aware of our culture to the same extent that we
were aware of theirs. Each of us did our best to
participate and put forward what we felt would be
helpful suggestions. When comparing experiences
(later) we all affirmed that other team members
found it quite a challenge to know how to integrate
our cultural perspectives into the workings of the
group, but that this had been a positive experience.
On the morning of day four, we all watched with
great interest the presentations by the different
teams and felt that overall Mäori culture had been
treated with respect, sincerity and generosity.
In conclusion, the StrategyNZ workshop and think
tank was a wonderful experience for us and we all
felt that it was a privilege to be a part of this event
marking such an important milestone in strategic
thinking in the contemporary history of our
country. As mentioned, this was very new ground
for us and a cultural context that we are not used
to; but this was a positive learning experience and
one that was combined with lots of wonderful new
friendships.
As we sat together and reflected on our experiences
we felt very proud of Wendy and the staff from
the Sustainable Future Institute who worked so
hard to make this event a stunning success and
hospitable occasion for all of the participants. We
also felt privileged that they had gone to so much
trouble to make it possible for us to attend. We
were also thankful to have had the privilege to sit
and listen to the learning and experiences of Prof.
Peter Bishop.
Anthony Cole (Kaihautü) on behalf of Ema
Weepu, Shona Albert Thompson and Ramari
Collin (TMAo students)
Anthony Cole, Te Whare Wānanga o Te Pīhopatanga o Aotearoa,
Ngāti Raukawa. Anthony is interested in trans-disciplinary
research, atuatanga and futures modeling and teaching and cross-
cultural dialogue.

Two of our Taahuhu röpü were members of

teams that were chosen to present their strategy
presentations in Parliament. This was a very new
and exciting experience for us and an honour for
our team members.

9 Whänau – family members

10 Tangata Whenua – the local people of the land (in this case the staff of Te Papa and local iwi)
11 Tüpuna Mäori – ancestors
12 Visitors
13 Waiata – song
14 Whaikorero – speech making
15 Kotahitanga – A mental, physical and spiritual oneness
16 Röpü – a group (in this case composed of three Mäori Masters students and their Kaiako (teacher))

2058 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 11

 Weighing the future
Richard Logan
I really enjoyed being part of the StrategyNZ:
Mapping our Future workshop in March 2011.
I enjoyed in different ways the four days of two
parts. Each part was very different, but very
interesting. My only concern was that we got to
very positive scenarios without really factoring in
peak oil/climate change etc. We were very strong
on social values and very light on environmental
matters. All groups maintained a very positive view
of the future, despite many or most of the speakers
outlining many difficulties now and in the future.
This difference between what the presenters were
saying and our positive group visions was further
highlighted for me when I purchased and read Dr
Richard Slaughter’s latest book, Biggest Wake Up
Call in History (2010), which he was promoting at
the workshop.
It paints a very realistic and rather bleak view
going forward with many issues that may not be
easily solved. These include issues around climate
change, energy and resource depletion. Slaughter
12 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS
gives examples of the various ‘collapse’ and
‘descent’ scenarios. It is after all an assumption
that the Sixth Extinction (one caused by humans)
will not include us. For example, what are the
implications of ocean acidification or nitrogen/
phosphate cycles? What would New Zealand’s
resilience be to these and the other issues? Having a
vision going forward under these scenarios will not
be quite as cheery, but is worth another session at
another time.
Overall, the StrategyNZ workshop was very
worthwhile, with good presenters and content.
Richard Logan works as a Principal Policy Analyst in the Spatial
and Infrastructure Strategy Unit of the Auckland Council. Prior
to joining the new Council, Richard worked at North Shore
City Council where he specialised in a wide range of strategic/
governance projects.
2058
Personal Reflection
Damian Lawrence
Insights gained from StrategyNZ: Mapping our
Future
My greatest insight was the collective power
of thought from people with a wide range of
backgrounds, ethnicities, ages and beliefs. Whilst
this can mean the process takes longer, and there
are frustrations along the way, the end result is
richer dialogue and thinking.
Saying that, what was also insightful was that New
Zealanders typically share similar views of fairness,
equality and empathy as a foundation to their beliefs.
Opportunities and obstacles to New Zealand’s long-
term success
Anything that celebrates our uniqueness is an
opportunity; anything that tries to conform with
the rest of the world (especially Australia!) is
an obstacle.
Obviously our clean, green image (if retained) is a
competitive advantage, and we need to maximise
and promote our lifestyle.
I see a significant obstacle as the inability of New
Zealanders to have constructive public debates. An
example is welfare reform. Whilst I have a personal
view on this, the real issue is that we cannot have
a mature and informed debate on what is good
for New Zealand, without getting emotive and
personal on the issue.
Personal responsibility is paramount and should
always come before collective responsibility.
Unfortunately, I feel New Zealand as a culture
has swung too far towards the side of collective
responsibility, people have an expectation that
others should provide for them, and this has
created a culture of dependency. Fifty percent
of people receiving some form of government
welfare is clearly unsustainable and fundamentally
incorrect.
Talent – how do we attract and retain talent?
•• Promote our lifestyle and the importance of
family.
•• We should learn to celebrate individual success,
not fear it.
•• We should provide every opportunity possible
to ensure business and entrepreneurship is
successful.
2058
Constitutional review – thoughts on capacity
building and engagement
Whilst I fundamentally agree in having
representation across all sectors of society in
decision making, unfortunately MMP clearly
has not worked. This system does not allow
governments to make long-term strategic (tough)
decisions. Instead it encourages decisions that
find a middle ground and ones designed not to
upset anyone. The lack of decision on universal
superannuation entitlement is an example of this.
Whilst clearly unsustainable, no-one is prepared to
make tough decisions on this.
I do not suggest FPP should be resumed, however
we need to find a system that encourages long-term
strategic decision making. The first step to this is to
increase the parliamentary term to 5 years.
The need for a national strategy
Fundamentally, we need a (non-partisan) long-term
strategy. We need to agree to what this would look
like after sufficient debate and engagement of all
sectors of society. And we need systems in place to
ensure we stay on track, not compromise the long-
term for the short-term, in the pursuit of power.
The strategy should address the question: what
type of society do we want our children’s children
to live in?
How to initiate change
The first step is to build a culture of personal
responsibility and of striving for/celebrating
success. Equality does not mean that everyone is
equal. It is about everyone having the opportunity
to be the best they can be.
We need to take advantage of technology, as this is
reducing the issue of geographical distance.
Examples could include:
•• Building up New Zealand as an Asia-Pacific
financial hub
•• Food science
Taking New Zealand to the rest of the world is
also an opportunity.
STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 13
 Final thoughts
Let us move away from GDP to a happiness index
that recognises success factors other than monetary
drivers, i.e. standard of living, quality of life, lack
of pollution, mental well-being etc. Let us set an
aspiration of being top of the world in this index.

Damian Lawrence has been involved in the financial services

industry for 11 years in a variety of positions ranging from
operations, regulation, strategy and corporate affairs. His passion
with sustainability dates back to his time at Waikato University
studying Environmental Law. He is a patriotic kiwi and has a
particular interest in the social aspects of Sustainability, especially
developing strategies to enable all New Zealanders to reach their
full potential.

14 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 2058

Rethinking economic growth
Scott Dalziell
The starting point for this observation is the
realisation quite early in the ‘Mapping our Future’
exercise that one of the basic assumptions for
most participants was that improved economic
performance was an important theme. There were
a number of variant ideas about how this was to
be addressed, including the emphasis on making
better use of individual intellectual skills (Sir Paul
Callaghan). But all of the contributions made
seemed to assume that the economic system itself
would remain largely unchanged.
In a world increasingly aware of the finite
resources available for exploitation by human
enterprise, that unchallenged assumption is a
fundamental weakness to planning for a sustainable
future. That weakness was evident again in many
of the group presentations that arose out of the
workshop. And I make that criticism while at the
same time I acknowledge the wonderful creativity
evident in those efforts. The overall failure to
address the unsustainablity of our dominant
capitalist economic model seriously constrained
that creativity.
Now I want to spend some time addressing what
was attempted within the yellow group of which I
was a part. Early in our discussions there emerged
a strong commitment to focusing our strategy plan
around the idea that the major aspect of our plan
would be to develop a different culture where the
dominant theme would be the quality of individual
development and community interaction that
occurred. That was expressed in The Listener theme
(the country where people throughout the world
wanted to live). The ways in which that human
satisfaction theme found expression were clearly
outlined in the development of more involved
participation in the political shaping of the future,
in the strong statement about leveraging off
individual differences to create a richly diverse
social and enterprise structure. This vision was
supported by an education structure that enabled
people to more actively and creatively participate
in a society which they were able to own as a result
of that participation.
2058
I believe that particular presentation quite
deliberately ignored the pre-occupation with
standards of living as currently conceived in terms
of the size of one’s pay-packet. We sought to define
a future that would be more humanly fulfilling
because of the attempt to fully utilise human
capital.
I know that I wholeheartedly participated in the
development of that plan, in part because I have
long believed that our present economic model is
both unsustainable and humanly crippling. My
understanding of the current economic crisis also
supports my belief that such a change is imperative.
Most of the reports I am now hearing, about the
severity of the current crisis and the length of time
the underlying trends have been developing, all
support my belief that a radical change of direction
along the lines I have suggested are called for.
I want to go on and reflect on the input of people
like Sir Paul Callaghan. I recall with gratitude that
very small part of his presentation in which he
spoke of how satisfying it was for him to work
in the very creative fields of his working life.
Underlying much of what he had to say was the
emphasis on developing, to the full, the talent of
individuals to be creative in their involvement
in society. That needs to be seen as desirable,
even more for individual well-being than for the
economic benefit of the nation. It is also important
that we see some of the challenges around climate
change and sustainable use of natural resources as
an opportunity to show a greater respect for the
natural world of which we are only a part.
The values that I have barely touched on here may
help to move us away from a pre-occupation with
our national aspirations, away from competition
with other nations over wealth measured in dollars
or material possessions, to wealth measured by
how we value and seek to enrich each other and
the environment in which we live.
Scott Dalziell is a 78 year old member of an intentional
community. This community is focused on living sustainably by
growing as much of their own food as possible and making much
lower demands on our environment, by lowering our energy
needs, fostering local resilience and recycling materials as much as
possible.
STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 15
 Competition as a motivator
Roger Dennis

StrategyNZ was a fascinating and valuable process
on many different levels. However, from my
perspective the most interesting aspect of the
event was the incentive created by introducing a
game layer to the workshop process. To put this
in context, teams competed on the basis that only
four of them would be able to present to MPs in
the Legislative Council Chamber.
The result of this was a group of individuals who
were motivated far beyond what you would
reasonably expect in this situation. On the first
day some teams were still working at midnight,
while others opted to start early in the morning to
prepare for the judging and selection process.
I have now seen the game layer work
extraordinarily well in two similar situations – the
second being the ‘game’ called Magnetic South
that was run by Landcare Research after the
Christchurch earthquakes to imagine what the city
could become.
In both of these examples the competition element
turns a potentially very dry process into something
quite powerful with a high level of engagement.
This has implications for how the momentum for
StrategyNZ could be carried forward, and I think
there are two possible paths to take:
1. Engage with key influencers and decision-makers
on a small scale in order to convey the strategic
importance of long-term thinking.
2. Engage at a much greater scale across New
Zealand by creating a game that provokes
thought and stirs debate among thousands of
people.
I do not think there is a middle ground here –
there have been many initiatives to kick start
thinking about the future of New Zealand (and the
Sustainable Future Institute has catalogued each of
these dating back to 1936) but most of these have
walked down the safe path. In order to move the
dial and engage either a key group of people, or
to engage thousands, a fresh approach is clearly
required.
The world is rapidly changing, and the next few
years offer a small window of opportunity for
the government to position New Zealand for the
next fifty years. Whether this is well recognised
remains to be seen, but the imperative is clear and
the outcome will dictate not only how many of
the next generation of smart Kiwis will leave the
country, but how many will never return.
Roger Dennis is a foresight and innovation consultant based in
New Zealand. He is part of the core team of Future Agenda, the
world’s largest open source foresight programme. Roger co-led the
2007 Shell Technology Futures programme for the GameChanger
team in The Hague. The GameChanger programme was designed
to sponsor innovative ideas in the energy industry and help them
move into the marketplace.

16 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 2058

2. Foresight
Opportunities and obstacles to New Zealand’s long-term success

Once an individual, business, city or country has a clear

picture of what it wants to achieve, it must consider
what is happening and may happen in the future. While
vision is about looking inwards, strategic foresight is
about looking outwards; in terms of what is happening
around us (insight), what has got us to this place
(hindsight) and where we might be going (foresight).

The participant responses included in this section have

focused on the opportunities and challenges that New
Zealand will need to address strategically as it works
towards becoming a country ‘where talent wants to live’.

2058 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 17

 New Zealand sans frontières
Stuart Barson
New Zealand now is a place. I argue that New
Zealand instead needs to be known as a set of
values. Our country will be made up of all those
people who share these values, wherever they live
in the world. Being without frontièrs will redefine
what our country is so that we can be the country
we want to be.
When we travel overseas we sometimes meet people
we feel a special kinship with. You travel together,
talk through the night together, share a flat in
London together. They become life-long friends.
You may be the same age, you may work in a
similar job, but what you really have in common
with them is shared values. And there is no doubt
you share a lot more of these values with them than
you do with most people in your city or street.
It is the shared values that define your relationship,
not a shared place. And if you have elements of a
shared history, as you do with your neighbours,
then these have been forged by a globalised world
– we eat sushi, wear Levis, learn about the Middle
East on the BBC.
It is probably fair to say your life is better because
you have connected with people with shared values
who are not here. You have defined your life-long
relationship with them because of the strength of
these values.
New Zealand’s future depends on the same thing
happening – for all our lives to be better, we must
become a nation of people defined by values, not
by place. In doing this, we will redefine what a
country is.
Place will still be important; there is no doubt a
core value of a worldwide New Zealand will be
a strong connection to the land and sea. But does
it have to be in these islands, in the last major
landmass to be settled?
We need to reach out to all those who share our
values wherever they are in the world and tell them
that they too are New Zealanders (I will leave it to
you to decide what those particular values are).
We need to do this because we will be a better
country as a result. We can trade with them. We can
18 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS
educate them and be educated by them. We can be
protected by them. We will actually just do many of
the things that citizens of the same physical country
do, but we will be spread over the world.
This is what redefining the notion of country is
largely about. Many of the things the government
does for us, and what we do for each other, do not
depend on physical proximity (and this is certainly
only going to become more true).
You are a New Zealander because you share with
other people the set of values that define what it
is to be a New Zealander, not because you share a
location.
But it is not some hopeless utopian vision – we
need to be pragmatic about the how and why. It
is a big opportunity as the world is a big place.
We will be more secure because we will have a
global-scale Neighbourhood Watch looking out for
us. We will be wealthier because our distributed
economy will be more resilient to shocks. And we
will live more sustainably because we will cultivate
multi-cultural connections with people, not a
mono-culture of grass.
I know it can happen. The German friends I made
in Portugal are mad about New Zealand. We
watched Whale Rider together, they buy things
from our online store. They wear the pounamu I
gave them. And is there a better mark of being a
New Zealander than this?
Stuart Barson is a business manager at the University of Otago
focused on connecting the University’s research with business,
government and communities. Prior to this, he was an EFL teacher
in Portugal, China and New Zealand, and Private Secretary to
three Ministers of Health in the 1990s.
2058
Education for the future – what does it mean?
Rachel Bolstad

The strategy maps generated by participants at the
StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future event highlighted
education as an important tool for achieving our
visions for the future. This was evident in calls to:
•• ‘Educate our children to be creative, innovative
and adventurous’ (teal group).
•• Cultivate a nation of ‘skilled future thinkers’
(avocado group), and ‘a culture of learning’
(navy blue group).
•• ‘Foster creativity, systems thinking, civics
curriculum, lifelong learning’ (avocado group).
•• ‘[Design an] education system that fosters
creativity, values, responsibility, is globally
competent and connected’ (plum group).
The idea that ‘education is for the future’ seems
obvious. However, looking across the phrases from
the strategy maps above, I can see evidence of at
least three different interpretations of the idea of
‘education for the future’. I have shown these three
interpretations in Figure 1 on a continuum from
‘most familiar/obvious’ to ‘least familiar/obvious’.
The first interpretation is that education prepares
learners for their personal futures. We tend to
assume that this is more or less what our education
system is already set up to do – although how well
it currently does this, and for how many learners,
is debatable.
The second interpretation focuses on the future of
educational systems and structures themselves, and
how (and why) these might need to change from
the systems and structures we have today in order
to better meet the needs of tomorrow. During the
past few decades there has been substantial national
and international thinking about this,1 and in New
Zealand there have been various developments
geared towards constructing curriculum and
teaching ‘for the 21st century’.2 But transformative
changes within systems as self-stabilising as schools
or tertiary institutions can be slow and difficult;
some liken it to trying to ‘build the plane while
flying it’.3 It is also unclear whether there is yet a
widespread vision for what a truly ‘21st century’
educational system might look like, and how we
might achieve it.
A third way of interpreting ideas about education
and the future is to ask how education can prepare
learners and communities/society to deal with
complex systems-level future challenges. In my
view, this way of thinking about education
and the future is the most challenging, the least
familiar to most of us, and as a community and a
nation, we have not yet clarified how we might
proceed. Below, I outline some of the ideas that
I think ought to underpin our discussions and
deliberations about this aspect of ‘education for
the future’.

Figure 1 Three ways of interpreting ‘future focus’ in education

1 For example, see Delors, J. (Ed.). (1998). Education for the twenty-first century. Paris: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural
Organization.
2 For example, New Zealand schools are exploring many new ideas in The New Zealand Curriculum (Ministry of Education, 2007) that derive
from national and international thinking about the future of education.
3 Hipkins, R. (2010). Reshaping the secondary school curriculum: Building the plane while flying it? Findings from NZCER National Survey of
Secondary Schools 2009. Wellington: New Zealand Council for Educational Research.
www.nzcer.org.nz/pdfs/reshaping-secondary-school-curriculum.pdf

2058 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 19

 Educating future-thinkers and future-problem-
solvers
It is neither radical nor controversial to suggest
that education ought to help prepare people for a
life of real-world problem solving. However, it is
worth considering the nature of the problems that
characterise the 21st century world. Mai Chen put
it well in her address to the StrategyNZ: Mapping
our Future event:
Life is increasingly ‘Plan B’. We are dealing
with a global financial crisis, global warming,
earthquakes, and tsunamis. There are more
issues, they are bigger, they are more complex,
and they are game-changing.4
The term ‘wicked problems’ has been used to
describe these kinds of challenges.5 They are
‘wicked’ because they:
•• do not present a clear set of alternative solutions
– different ‘solutions’ can create or exacerbate
other problems.
•• tend to be characteristic of deeper problems.
•• have redistributive implications for entrenched
interests.
•• involve ‘contradictory certitudes’ – that is,
different people or groups ‘know’ what the
answer is, but these answers are irreconcilable
with one another.
•• tend to be persistent and insoluble: ‘we do not
really solve them, and we are really not looking
at optimal solutions – the best outcomes – we are
just looking for something that will damn well
work’.6
Wicked problems can not be solved using straight-
forward sequential solutions, partly because they
span multiple domains: social, economic, political,
environmental, legal, moral, and ethical. They are
systems-level challenges. They are ‘highly complex,
uncertain, and value-laden’.7 They can only be
addressed with ‘clumsy’ solutions, and this involves
bringing together disparate perspectives on the
problem.
4 Chen, M. (30 March 2011). Address to StrategyNZ: Mapping our future Workshop. Wellington.
See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2BIuGINlDk
5 Rayner, S. (2006, July). Wicked problems: Clumsy solutions – diagnoses and prescriptions for environmental ills. Jack Beale Memorial Lecture on
Global Environment, University of New South Wales, Sydney.
6 Rayner (2006). p.2.
7 Frame, B., & Brown, J. (2008). Developing post-normal technologies for sustainability. Ecological Economics, 65 (2), 225-241.
8 See footnote 4
20 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS
How often do we hear conversations about
education in the public sphere that centre around
how we can design teaching, learning, and
curriculum that might support learners? Not to
mention teachers, school leaders and families/
communities – to develop the capabilities they
would need to productively engage in these kinds
of wicked problem-solving? In my experience these
kinds of conversations are rare. It is also rare to
hear our national leaders acknowledge the fact that
there are simply no ‘easy’ solutions to our present-
day challenges. So what might need to change in
order to have more of these kinds of conversations?
Once again, I would like to draw on Mai Chen’s
suggestion. She has argued that it is time for
creating a new, richer level of public engagement
and conversation about shaping public policy.
What we need, she argues, is to better understand
how our everyday lives are connected with, and
impacted by, legislative and policy decisions. In her
words:
We need to be able to talk about these things
and understand the impact they have on us ...
what I am saying is that at the ‘ordinary’ end
of every conversation there is perhaps some
extraordinary stuff behind it, but we need to
make more of these ‘ordinary’ conversations
enlightened and consciousness-raised ... so [that]
we can achieve better.8
I would like to see New Zealanders moving from
the ‘ordinary’ to the ‘extraordinary’ end of our
conversations about education and the future. We
want our education systems to support the best
for our young people and for our country – but
what will it really take to achieve this? The ideas
raised at the StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future
event are a good beginning. I have offered some
additional ideas that I hope can help to take these
conversations even further.
Rachel Bolstad is a senior researcher at The New Zealand Council
for Educational Research. Her recent work has been on future-
focused education, including education for sustainability and
education for enterprise. She blogs on www.shiftingthinking.org
and is the co-author (with Jane Gilbert) of Disciplining and drafting
or 21st century education? Rethinking the New Zealand senior
secondary curriculum for the future (2008, NZCER Press).
2058
Introducing New Zealand students to
the world
Michael Moore-Jones
Education is without a doubt crucial to the success
of any modern economy. While in New Zealand
we have a relatively high standard of intellectual
education – the maths, science, and economics we
learn here is relatively the same as what you would
learn in Europe or the USA – we lack on giving a
social, emotional, and cultural education. We are
handicapped, like in many areas, because we are
miles from the rest of the world.
Let us compare a student growing up in Paris to a
student growing up in Wellington. The student in
Paris is inundated every day with different cultures,
languages and ways of living, simply within
their own city. Because France is surrounded by
many countries, each with different cultures and
languages, the student need only walk down the
streets of Paris to gain a cultural education. In
Wellington, students are not so lucky. We see New
Zealand urban culture, and that is it. It gets worse
than that though – the student in Paris can fly to
any number of other countries within an hour,
for a tiny cost. This allows them to really become
more globally-aware than us in New Zealand. The
cheapest place we can fly to is Australia, and by
no means does that give our students a different
perspective of the world.
New Zealand risks getting left behind as the rest
of the world becomes more intercultural. Most
students in Europe speak at least two languages.
They understand a multitude of different cultures.
These are immense advantages to Europeans
and Asians, simply because of their geographic
locations.
Luckily for us, all is not lost. It is simply going to
take some work on behalf of the government and
the private sector. There seems to be a mentality
that giving money to young people to travel
abroad and attend conferences is a cost to the
government or the private sector. That is entirely
the wrong way to view it. It should be seen as
an investment in New Zealand’s future, and an
investment that could pay off very handsomely.
2058
What exactly should organisations in New Zealand
be doing to encourage a cultural education for
young people? They should be investing in young
people to give them the ability to do exchanges to
other countries. Money is the main barrier to pay
for the flights to get there. They should also work
on developing partnerships with schools around
the world, such as the United World Colleges.
We need to be willing to invest the money it takes
to get our youth overseas to gain this cultural,
emotional, and social education.
In addition to physically getting our young people
overseas, there is a lot we can do within New
Zealand from our computer desks. Organisations
such as TED and the RSA aim to increase global
awareness amongst young people. They both
create videos that young people can watch from
anywhere in the world – and they are videos that
will help our youth to see what it is like on the
global scale, and how we can be competitive.
Education is a lot more than just learning maths
and studying literature. We need to step past the
physical barrier that is the ocean and invest in
our country’s future. If we can combine a good
intellectual education system with Kiwi ingenuity
and a globally-minded view, I have no doubt
that New Zealand can place itself truly on the
international stage.
Michael Moore-Jones is a 16 year old who has grown up globally.
He writes for various blogs and publications on technology and
business topics, and is the Founder of a company called ‘They
Don’t Teach You This In School’, which aims to help motivated
young people learn from the knowledge and experience of leaders
and thinkers. His thoughts can be found at his personal blog,
www.mmoorejones.com.
STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 21
 Beyond the growth paradigm: ‘What the
industrial economy calls ‘growth’ is really
a form of theft from nature and people.’
– Vandana Shiva
Christian Williams
While I thoroughly enjoyed the workshop and
presentations of the various visions for the future,
I ultimately left with a feeling that none were much
different from the themes that have been promoted
over the decades past. Sadly, I also have personal
doubts as to whether any of the visions could truly
be considered as ‘sustainable futures’, when global
ecological limits and global distributive justice
theories are taken into consideration. Regarding
the first point, humanity’s ecological footprint is
now 50% above the global sustainable capacity.
Regarding the second point, a vast majority of that
biocapacity is appropriated by a small minority of
the world’s population, leaving billions of people
in poverty. Although it seems hardly recognised,
New Zealand is among that elite minority, and
also produces an ecological footprint (per capita)
more than twice of our fair share. Despite this, an
obsession over the need to catch up with Australia
and other ‘more developed’ countries pervades the
discussions on our future.
This is the growth paradigm that now grips the
world; a short-term race to maximise economic
growth and stay ahead of our competitors, based
on the assumption that there is no limit, and that
the more we grow, the better life will be. From
memory, every vision for the future presented
at the workshop either explicitly or implicitly
outlined measures that would maximise our
rate of growth and push us towards the top of
the economic ladder. The debate is focused on
sustained growth rather than a sustainable future.
This worldview is about maximising our share of
the pie (already unfairly shared), and fails to realise
that the pie we fight over is produced mostly with
the use of limited, non-renewable resources. It is
thus a race not only to apportion a larger share
from the present, but also to wastefully take from
future generations, leaving them to shoulder the
costs of our ecological debt.
22 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS
What is the alternative? The only mention it
received was a brief comment by Colin James at
the end of his speech in the Legislative Council
Chamber. It is a steady-state economy, one where
both population and economy do not grow for
growth’s sake. Some things can grow indefinitely
in a steady-state economy. The cultural resources,
social bonds, human knowledge, moral philosophy
and all those non-material aspects of human
development for which we often seem to have too
little time for. Our productivity may be well below
that of Australia and America, but it is well above
what it was half a century ago. Instead of taking
these gains in productivity as endlessly rising
consumption – a disposable society of planned
obsolescence – we should be increasingly rich in
leisure. Yet we work the same hours as Samuel
Parnell demanded when he arrived in Wellington
in 1840. A shorter working week would reduce
or maintain our aggregate material wealth but
would provide more time for human development
– time with family, time for learning, time for
healthy living, time for enjoying our ‘100%
pure’ environment. These are our real sources of
wealth, and if we were not blinded by the lights
of economic growth, we could easily see that we
can be the richest people in the world, living in
the richest country. A non-growing economy is
the only sustainable future that I can imagine. The
transition is urgently needed.
Christian is a 30 year old Wellingtonian currently living in
Sweden. He has just completed a thesis for a master's in sustainable
development, in which he investigated the implications of the
working week on our society, economy and environment, based
on a case study of New Zealand. He is convinced of the benefits of
a shorter working week, of the need for government to be actively
supporting it, and also of the need for developed economies to
look beyond economic growth.
2058
Enough is enough
Debbie Dawson
I attended the StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future
workshop held in March 2011 co-ordinated by the
Sustainable Future Institute. Participants in Peter
Bishop’s two-day course at the beginning of this
week were given the opportunity to develop scenarios
of importance to the future of New Zealand. I
nominated health and well-being and was surprised
that this topic was not among those taken up for
further exploration. The following notes reflect my
personal thoughts about an issue I believe to be of
great importance to our future in New Zealand.
In a prosperous country such as New Zealand whose
primary produce is of acclaimed quality, it is both an
irony and tragedy that we are among the leaders in
the world for the rates of bowel cancer and diabetes.
Recent newspaper articles1 refer to a study published
in the international medical journal the Lancet,
where, among high-income countries, New Zealand
is reported to have the fourth highest-rate of diabetes
with an estimated 10 percent prevalence. Obesity
caused by an increasingly sedentary lifestyle and over-
consumption of cheaply produced carbohydrates
with limited nutritional value is the main culprit.
This issue has the potential to bankrupt not only
individual families who will struggle to meet the costs
of treatment but also to bankrupt the country and
totally monopolise the ‘health’ system and deplete
health funding. This is not a sustainable future for
New Zealand. The 2006/07 NZ Health Survey found
that one in five children are overweight2 and it is well
accepted that those who are overweight during their
childhood are more likely to be overweight as adults,
committing us to an unhealthy future. This is an
issue of personal sustainability which is inextricably
linked to our sustainability as a country.
It is time for a rethink. Clearly the time-worn and
knee-jerk response to assign responsibility for the
cure to the ever increasing burden of our educators
is not working. And while the government
might write worthy policy and fund health
education through schools, ‘health’ institutions
and community agencies, which are all very well-
intended, their impact is often undermined by other
government policies. For instance our economic
prosperity seems to be linked to consumption
and driven by consumerism. How often do we
hear politicians and economic commentators
1 Call for strategy on soaring diabetes by Kate Newton, Dominion Post, 27 June 2011 & Wellingtonians fatter, happier and poorer by Katie
Chapman, Dominion Post, 28 June 2011.
2 http://www.moh.govt.nz/moh.nsf/indexmh/obesity-key-facts
2058
recommending that we ‘spend our way out of
recession’? This focus on consumerism and the
‘worship of the dollar’ has a negative impact on
our physical environments and our own bodies.
Both processes result in ‘rubbish’ – one means that
more useless stuff will end up in our landfills and
the other is the excess rubbish we ingest will lead to
illness and inactivity that will soak up millions of
dollars of taxpayers’ money diverted to treatments
for ailments that could easily be avoided.
It is time to redefine ‘healthy’ for New Zealand.
It is important to avoid the trap the Americans
have fallen into by thinking that the solution is a
medical one. They have lobbied strongly to ensure
that everyone has access to health insurance but
this approach and assigning funding to short-term
mechanical solutions such as stomach stapling will
do nothing to eliminate the cause. That is simply
treating the symptoms and the problem will just
continue to grow. Surely the best outcome would
be for people not to get sick in the first place and
have a better quality of life in the process.
New Zealand has the potential to be a world
leader in nutrition. Unfortunately the quality of
our education in this area is compromised by the
discovery that many of nutritional graduates can
only find employment with the multi-nationals,
peddling expensive sugary and nutritionally
compromised products such as breakfast cereals.
We often lament how small we are and far away
from the rest of the world yet we can use that to
our advantage to mobilise and effect change which
is often more achievable in a smaller environment.
We need to extend our efforts around achieving
a ‘clean, green environment’ to our own bodies.
Remember how people used to say ‘New Zealand
is a great place to bring up kids’? Well I would
like us to make worldwide headlines for being the
healthiest and most active population on the globe
rather than the biggest and most slothful.
Debbie Dawson is a self-employed consultant based in
Christchurch who works with a range of organisations in the area
of strategic planning, governance and leadership development. She
has held senior management positions in local government and
retains a keen interest in community issues.
STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 23
 Balancing opportunities and obstacles
Maria Ioannou
1. Trade-offs
Coming away from the StrategyNZ workshop I
was, and continue to be, struck by the startling
truth that no one wanted to talk about the trade-
offs that may be necessary to get us to where we
want to go. We, workshop participants, were
happy to talk about our visions of 50 years hence –
of beautiful, fairytale days where our environment
is pristine, where only the talented and young live,
and where our economy was booming. But we are
all always much more comfortable talking about
a long-term, far-off vision than about what hard
choices, what compromises, might have to be made
to get there.
As an example, the causes and impacts of climate
change were an inevitable hot topic at the
workshop and there appeared to be a consensus
opinion that New Zealand should become a
happy, low-carbon country. So it was in principle
agreed that we need, somehow, to cut emissions
fairly quickly. In New Zealand, the main source
of carbon emissions results from a heavy reliance
on personal car use and road freight. I showed my
group the spending priorities of the New Zealand
Transport Agency for the next three years1 –
for the year 2010/11, just 0.4% of the current
approved programme spend ($10.8m) is allocated
to provision and maintenance of walking and
cycling facilities compared to 88.1% ($2,191m) for
road provision, improvements and maintenance,
of public transport work. However, to challenge
this status quo for transport investment seemed
to be unthinkable for my group. It was not that
we did not want cars, but that we apparently
wanted magic cars that did not pollute. Of course,
there is a possibility that electric cars will become
increasingly viable but this is not the case today
and even electric cars will demand huge amounts
of energy, albeit electric, to work. This electricity
will have to come from somewhere, and in a world
which is struggling to slow the use of fossil fuels
to meet current electricity demand, it seems to me
that we need to actually think about changing how
we live in significant ways. We need to invest in
public and active transport, but how will we do
this if we cannot talk about it, or it is seen to be
too untouchable an issue?
1 Current National Land Transport Programme snapshot (May 2011), available at http://www.nzta.govt.nz/planning/what-funding/nltp.html
2 European Commission. Regional Policies: Regions for Economic Change, available at
http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/cooperation/interregional/ecochange/ftn_en.cfm?nmenu=9
24 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS
2. Consensus building
People from different parts of New Zealand
society need time to get used to each other, and
each other’s agendas, in order to be able to have
real discussion where they can feel free to think
aloud. It takes time to build towards consensus
views, and then to work towards any shared
vision that develops. It is important that different
stakeholders in the country’s future are drawn
together on a regular basis to look at the full raft
of issues, much like the StrategyNZ workshop
started to do. This gives people a forum to debate
not only the things they feel passionately about but
also those that are less close to their hearts, which
is very useful for building rapport in less intense
situations.
You can do some things to fast-track the process –
the building of trust, a shared vision and an action
plan to get there – when you need to. In Europe,
the European Commission (EC) introduced a new
strand to interregional projects (those between
different regions in the different European Union
Member States) – ‘fast-track networks’.2 These were
unusually short projects, by EC standards, just two
years in length, and requested that networks were
formed between older Member States, experienced
in certain issues, and newer Member States, which
wished to learn quickly. At the end of the two-
year period, action plans had been developed for
each region and relationships established to help
implement these in the near future.
3. Youth
It was evident from the StrategyNZ workshop
that young people are crucial to discussions
regarding a forward plan. However, it should
be clear to all that the burden of the challenges
faced at this point in time, and those that we are
anticipating in the future, is not placed solely on
their shoulders. Young people should be part
of things, a voice at the table, and not a special
bolt-on element or used as an excuse to opt out of
tackling hard problems. For example, the current
trend of older people, governments, academics, and
businesses abdicating responsibility for tackling the
climate change and environmental issues we are
faced with. It seems to have become de rigueur for
2058
everyone to suggest that it is the young who must
address these challenges and deploy solutions. This
not only puts a huge stressor on our young people,
but also misses the point of a society and the need
for a society to fix what is broken.
Everyone has something to offer and a part to
play. At each age, and in different roles, we have
different priorities and different flaws. Perhaps
the young lack realism and sometimes react too
quickly to passionate emotions, and maybe the
old are sometimes too adhered to the usual way of
doing things to really see the potential for doing
something different. But together we can moderate
our flaws and make use of our qualities.
Opportunities and obstacles to New Zealand’s
long-term success
New Zealand is, even in a climate-challenged
world, a country full of opportunity. I see the key
opportunities as:
•• geographical isolation – New Zealand is in an
enviable position at a time when borders and
border control (both for people and for invasive
species, for disease, and for conflict) are
increasingly tense issues around the world;
•• a good natural environment – although New
Zealand is facing many environmental issues (and
is inarguably not living up to its ‘100% pure’
branding), it is a country that still has the potential
to restore, protect and conserve its natural
environment and resources, something that the
majority of other countries can no longer do;
•• a low population – growing up in the
overcrowded chaos of London in the UK and
examining the issues arising from the rapid
increases in global population as part of my
work, it is clear that New Zealand is in a good
position with low population numbers and
should be planning and working hard to
maintain these;
•• renewables potential – New Zealand already
has a large proportion of its electricity generated
using renewable resources and, though these do
have their own issues that need to be thought
and talked through with all stakeholders, it is
feasible that New Zealand could have 100%
renewable electricity in the near future;
•• the power to take brave decisions – from the
success of the Manapouri Dam petition to the
decision to end logging in the West Coast’s
beech forests, New Zealand has a history of
making bold and forward-thinking decisions that
have made it a world leader on some issues. This
legacy could be strengthened and continued, and
New Zealand could lead the world towards a
low-carbon economy. It is a huge opportunity but
one that is quickly sliding away from New Zealand
2058
with each hesitation of Government and each time
a politician spells out the wish for New Zealand
to pursue the Australian economic dream;
•• a clear brand to develop a long-term strategy
around – ‘100% pure’ is such a bold, unique
message that should not be lost but rather lived
up to;
•• internet connections to the rest of the world
– the rise of the internet has given New Zealand
a connectedness and attractiveness that did not
exist before. New Zealand can now interact with
other countries on a level playing field, it can
access global best-practice, and talented people
need not leave, and some others may come, as
the weighing up of quality of life versus
professional success does not rule out New
Zealand anymore;
•• a high quality of life – the traditional economic
indicators would suggest that New Zealanders
have a lower quality of life than say Australians.
But times are changing and the indicators need
to catch up. Someday soon having unpolluted
river systems, empty beaches and landscapes
uncluttered by industrial or residential
developments will be very high on the list when
looking at quality of life. New Zealand should
protect its quality of life for this future; and,
•• an increasingly strong bi-cultural framework
– the blending of Mäori and Päkehä ideas,
decision-making methods, and ways of living is a
strength that New Zealand should continue to
play to. The unique context of New Zealand
offers helpful perspectives and multi-layered
ways to address challenges.
There are, of course, obstacles:
•• pushing and subsidising low-wage,
environmentally harmful industries – e.g.
tourism, agriculture, lignite mining;
•• persistent pursuit of low-value added exports
– New Zealand could be selling renewable
energy technology to China today but instead
we are mostly exporting milk powder. The
government should focus on boosting high-
value-added sectors, and building an innovation
and knowledge-based economy, rather than
selling off its self-reliance;
•• reluctance to engage and utilise global best
practice – I have found that much of the best
practice that has been exchanged and
implemented elsewhere in the world is ignored in
New Zealand, which seems to prefer to look to
Australia (a very different context!) instead of to
countries more similar to New Zealand in terms
of resources, environment and challenges faced;
•• stubborn and short-sighted continuation of fossil
fuel addiction, and a refusal to be energy efficient;
STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 25
 •• lack of imagination – brilliant things have
happened in New Zealand (for example, Weta)
and yet somehow the focus seems to be on
maintaining the status quo;
•• dream to be like Australia – i.e. focused on
short-term economic wealth at the expense of
long-term environmental and societal health;
•• a reluctance to reallocate long-established
budgets to meet new challenges effectively
– e.g. road transport spending rather than public
transport investments;
•• poor school-finishing rate – this is a serious
problem, especially for a country that loses
many of its brightest and best to overseas; and
•• poor progression possibilities for
professionals.
Talent – how do we attract and retain talent?
Why would talent come and stay in New Zealand?
For the amazing life and low population, beautiful
environment, freedoms, not for the cities and
culture and political thought. Post-immigration
view – the low population of New Zealand
is a huge plus in today’s overcrowded world.
Berl projects the university sector will need to
consistently attract between 560 and 920 academic
staff each year to resource our universities to the
year 2020.3
Constitutional review – thoughts on capacity
building and engagement
To get an interested and engaged public, you need
to present things to them in an accessible way. The
public of New Zealand does try to get involved
(think of those involved in all sorts of clubs/
volunteering etc.) but are sometimes exhausted
by the process, e.g. Resource Management Act/
Environment Court process.
There are a number of things that put the public
off engaging with government at all levels. Two
things that come to mind are: the discrepancies
between policy and budgetary spend; and,
unfairness and distrust as a result of prior decisions
and the protection of special interests. I would say
here what I say to every government around the
world – special interest lobbying needs to come to
an end.
3 Berl economics. Academic Workforce Planning Towards 2020 – Berl media release (2 February 2011), available at
http://www.berl.co.nz/1313a1.page
26 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS
Encouraging debate amongst all stakeholders/
public towards a consensus view of the future –
this is more than just visioning, it is about setting
up strong networks and relationships that will
hold when it comes to making difficult decisions
and finding the best way forward. Sometimes this
will be about compromises, but sometimes it will
not. Sometimes it will be about getting everyone to
agree on a certain path so they can then take action
to make it happen.
Changing the parliamentary term
Whilst the idea of a longer parliamentary term can
seem very attractive, there are powerful democracy
issues around longer terms. Longer terms can lead
to bad feeling – e.g. when politicians stretch out
their term of office to the maximum extent to
push through unpopular legislation. My personal
feeling is that there should be another body, with
some budgetary power, that holds the long view
in New Zealand, and that this body should also be
accountable and in touch with what is happening
at the cutting edge, to work on putting New
Zealand ahead of the rest of the world.
The need for a national strategy
It would be good to get an agreed vision of some
sort in place – but this needs to be done through
consensus building work with all stakeholders,
then there is something to work towards. It was
very interesting that at the futures workshop, all
the groups basically wanted the same thing but no-
one wanted to really make the hard decisions and
examine the trade-offs necessary to get there.
Any national strategy will be a constantly
evolving, alive creature, and this would be its
beauty. As new challenges appear and as solutions
to older ones are found, as new key stakeholders
emerge, the strategy will be adapted and modified
to be fit for purpose. The value will be in the
process of its evolution, as different parts of New
Zealand’s society are bought together to find
common ground and to be allowed to dream.
How to initiate change
New Zealand should take note of its legacy of bold
and brave decisions and look at where it wants to
be in ten or twenty years’ time. As a country, at
all government levels and across different strands
of government, New Zealand should learn from
global best practice, rather than looking only to
Australia, fast-tracking, and in some cases leap-
frogging, its way to a low-carbon world. Basically,
New Zealand should be brave and innovative and
not try to be like everyone, or anyone else.
2058
Scenarios you have worked on and/or would like to
see developed
My group at StrategyNZ got through to the
presentations in the Legislative Council Chamber.
Whilst unfortunately the presentation of our hard
work did not completely do justice to the strategy
we had developed, the main ideas were embodied
in our summary in the booklet produced just
beforehand. The key idea was to redefine ‘health,’
‘wealth’ and ‘wisdom’ and I still think this is a
useful way to develop a plan for New Zealand
going forward.
It is critical that New Zealand starts to take real
steps toward developing a low-carbon economy
(exploitation of lignite reserves or of offshore oil
should be an absolute no-go area), before it gets left
behind by other countries with more forethought
and more innovative spirit.
Weak signals and wildcards
Wildcard: lead on transition to a low-carbon world
Weak signals: hi-tech sectors, and high-talent
sectors rather than low-value-added ‘foundations’
of the economy (farming, tourism etc.)
The need for forward engagement
It is good to look ahead, to know what you are
aiming for, but what is critical is actually making
use of that when making decisions now. For
example, with regards to reliance on car transport
and road freight – China IS looking ahead,
spending vast sums on putting in place a cross-
country rail system.4 But New Zealand, which
HAD a rail network, continues to spend its limited
funds on roads not rail.
4 China Daily. China to spend $1.3t on new rail, road infrastructure (19 February 2011), available at
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2011-02/19/content_12044073.htm
2058
New Zealand, sadly like the rest of the world,
refuses to look forward with eyes open. This is
why last week I went to a conference on the energy
future of New Zealand and had to listen for more
than half an hour to the greedy ramblings of a coal-
hungry industry executive about what Southland’s
lignite reserves could bring in for New Zealand if
they were dug up and exported. New Zealand has
an amazing chance to take pioneering decisions
on becoming low-carbon, to export high-end
technology and advice, and to attract and retain
those who want to live in a very different world.
I have been thinking a lot, especially working in
the university environment, that there needs to be
a real strengthening of the link between the public
sector (civil service and local councils), academia,
the public generally, and business. One way I have
seen work well, in the South West of England, was
where the regional development agency set up a
regional ‘Panels of Economists’. Which consisted
of economics professors from the region’s
universities meeting every two months with the
region’s key policy makers to a) raise issues that
they were thinking about and b) answer questions
posed by the policy makers about challenges they
were facing.
Maria Ioannou is currently working on energy policy at the
University of Otago, and co-ordinates the Energy Cultures project.
Maria has substantial public policy experience in the UK and
Europe, with a strong focus in recent years on the transition to a
low-carbon economy and European cohesion. She holds a degree
in Physics from Imperial College and an MSc in Urban Design and
Social Science from the London School of Economics.
STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 27
 To kill or not to kill the goose that lays the
golden eggs
Heike Schiele
‘Democracies are very good at responding to crisis,
but less good at preventing them as this would
frequently require asking people to give something
up’. This is just one of many ‘common sense’
statements Peter Bishop made during his two day
Future Studies course (Wellington March 2011).
Crisis management around the Christchurch
earthquake was immediate, time was seen to be of
the essence and funds were pledged readily. At the
same time there appears to be far less appetite to
prevent a slowly building crisis around freshwater
in the country. On average there is plenty of water
in New Zealand and on average it is of a good
quality compared with other countries. But averages
contain both the very good and the very ugly.
There is no substitute for water – and while this
country is still enjoying its abundance, freshwater
around the world is rapidly turning into the
new ‘blue’ gold as countries run out of sufficient
quantities of clean freshwater to meet the demands
of their populations. The Honourable Nick Smith,
Minister for the Environment, in a recent speech
(22 June 2011) at Foxton, made the point that
New Zealand’s wealth potential stemming from
freshwater can be compared to that from mining in
Australia or oil in Saudi Arabia.
New Zealand’s waterways (rivers, lakes, wetlands
and aquifers) are the goose that lays the (blue)
golden eggs. What is the future of our goose going
to be? ‘We cannot predict the future, but we can
describe a range of futures; and if we can see futures
we can also work towards making them happen’ –
another one of Peter’s quotes.
2058 – Scenario I – A note in the Times
Online Magazine
After the collapse of the tourist industry in the
2040s as a result of an increase in water borne
diseases, diminishing recreational value of its
once splendid green, clean, environment, New
Zealand is now seeing the rapid demise of its
agricultural industries. Following in the wake of
Canterbury, Southland and Otago, the Waikato
and the Manawatü regions have also recently been
experiencing major stock losses due to polluted
waterways. Commodity prices have fallen below
average due to unreliable supply and quality issues
with New Zealand produce.
28 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS
The cost of water treatment for human
consumption has quadrupled in the last five
years. The recent E-coli outbreak has caused 1271
deaths in less than 2 months and an end of the
epidemic is not yet in sight. Due to contractual
obligations entered in the 2030s to export two
thirds of the available rainwater harvested in
the former Fiordland National Park area, the
country will now have to further increase its costly
Antarctic iceberg harvesting programme to supply
its population with safe drinking water. The
cumulative impact of these events will cause a 20%
reduction in GDP in this year alone. The Credit
Rating of the country has just been reduced to a
triple C- rating by the international rating agencies,
making it virtually impossible to raise any funds
for the restoration of its once splendid waterways.
2058 – Scenario II – A note in the Times Online
Magazine
For the 3rd year in a row New Zealand has been
ranked as number 1 in the global ‘Quality of Life’
awards. The almost perfect scores in water quality
underline the country’s commitment to responsible
resource management. The gradual restoration of
waterways including wetlands has been achieved
while maintaining or in some areas even slightly
increasing agricultural output compared to 2015
levels. The quality and diversity of New Zealand’s
agricultural produce is recognised globally and
is attracting a high premium. Animal health and
welfare are outstanding. The more ‘crop per drop’
programme has led to higher yields. At the same
time riparian planting, the gradual conversion
of highly erodible hill country from pasture to
forestry and the establishment of shelter belts in
the lowlands have contributed to significant soil
improvements.
The restoration of waterways had other positive
flow on effects. A strong correlation between the
health of the environment and the health of the
population has manifested itself over the last 15
years, leading to a gradual cost reduction in the
public health sector.
The departure from mass tourism to a targeted
high end clientele has taken further pressure off the
country’s natural resources while creating a range
of new positions and related income streams in
the service industry. More and more highly skilled
people choose to live in the country and contribute
2058
to an increasing diversification into environmental
consulting, research, innovative technologies and
entertainment industries.

Thanks to the government’s enlightened approach

to investing funds generated from its freshwater
resources in to education and labour market
development, the income gap (GNI coefficient) is
at an all time low and the happiness index highest
in the world.

Heike Schiele’s international business career in supply chain

management led her to Patagonia where she became acutely
aware of the global challenges around freshwater management.
The realisation that people are seriously considering exploiting
Antarctica for its icebergs to supplement dwindling drinking
water supplies, prompted her to embark on a PhD in Ecological
Economics and Integrated Freshwater Management.

2058 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 29

 How to attract and retain talent:
a youth perspective
Krystal Gibbens
As a member of New Zealand’s youth, one of
the things I think about is my future. Where am
I going? What am I going to do? And how am I
going to get there? Involved in these questions is
not only; what career will I follow? And will I
have a partner and kids? There is also the major
question of where will I live? By this I do not just
mean where in New Zealand? I mean where in the
world? As a talented member of our youth I do
not want to waste my talent here in New Zealand,
places like New York City and Los Angeles are
far more attractive options. I do not even want to
stay here for University if I get into a big name
University like Harvard or Yale. So with bigger
and better opportunities being offered overseas,
how does New Zealand keeps its talent? Let us face
it; the likes of Peter Jackson and Rachel Hunter
only come home for a visits and toss a bit of the
bread our way. They have more money, more
facilities and more opportunity elsewhere. The key
to keeping the talent is to find a niche for the talent
to fall into. LA is the city of film, New York is the
city of music, Paris is the city of fashion and on it
goes. What is New Zealand’s niche? To succeed, we
need to find this niche.
New Zealand is a unique country with unique
things to offer, a muse for talent to be inspired by.
However the question we need to ask ourselves is;
what is our unique niche market? I am sure many
minds will leap to tourism based ideas; after all
we have beautiful sites and rich culture. However
other countries have this too and if you consider
that currently that is what we offer and our GDP
per capita is one of the lowest, yet we are one
of the hardest working countries in the Western
world.
30 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS
With this in mind, I am sure you will agree with
me that our niche needs to be something else, not
just inspiring, but something that calls to talent,
something that talent seeks. To help us figure this
out, we need to also decide what kind of talent
we want. What is talent? Who has the talent New
Zealand wants? And how will this talent help New
Zealand. Realistically to grow as a country we need
talent that can generate jobs, income and increase
our real GDP. Economically related, also consider
that we are a small country and economically
we cannot drastically grow overnight; supply
would fall greatly short of demand. Therefore also
consider, how can New Zealand attract talent with
its current resources? We are the family country
and many middle class citizens with families
come to New Zealand seeking this and some
are transferred. If New Zealand had more New
Zealand owned companies, both in New Zealand
and overseas, we could have the underappreciated
middle sector start coming to New Zealand with
jobs and we could utilise this talent.
Rome was not built in a day and neither will New
Zealand be. Slow expansion and letting the world
know who we are and what we stand for is what
we need to aim for first. Currently a lot of people
think we are Australia, such as when the UK Daily
Mail had a picture of Katy Perry jumping off the
Auckland Harbour Bridge in Australia. I think we
all know it was New Zealand. So tell the world
that New Zealand is not a state of Australia and
then may the world be our oyster!
Krystal Gibbens is a Wellington Girls' College student. She is
interested in science, English, media studies and economics; as
well as performing arts, music and photography. She was selected
by her college to attend StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future.
2058
Productive diversity – learning to relate
Sue Hanrahan
When people migrate, they tend to the immediate
and obvious issues such as housing, schooling,
and banking. Little attention is given to the more
subtle issues that will make or break the settlement
process, that is, the ability to relate and adapt to a
new cultural environment.
For the migrant, this will be a personal challenge
because in this new environment the way that
locals eat, work, laugh, play or raise their families
may be unfamiliar. Learning how things are done
in the new country, and having a willingness to
adapt, enables migrants to successfully make the
transition to their new home.
Migrants should not expect to do the adapting on
their own. New Zealand employers signal their
need to import skills to supplement the domestic
workforce. The employers therefore have a role
in helping the migrant and their families through
the settlement process. A swift transition to
the new workplace will reduce the lead time to
productivity. OMEGA1 does this well by offering
mentoring and internships so that migrants can
relate to their profession in a new environment and
understand how we work at work.
Skilled migrants can do more than plug the gaps in
our domestic workforce. Employers would do well
to relate to the experience that skilled migrants
have acquired in their countries of origin. How can
these specialist skills, international experience and
cultural contacts promote their business locally or
develop markets off-shore?
1 OMEGA Opportunities for Migrant Employment in Greater Auckland
2058
Our way of doing business is not universal.
Learning to relate across cultures is a key
ingredient in employment and client relationships.
It is not a skill that comes naturally. It requires
a curiosity to examine difference without
fear, and the skills to communicate so that
misunderstandings are avoided and the migrants
come to participate fully in their new community
to the satisfaction of all.
Imagine a New Zealand that is acknowledged for
its ability to trade in a multicultural environment
because we:
•• clearly understand and communicate the
economic benefits of being able to relate across
cultures;
•• set an expectation that people in business equip
themselves with these skills because they are key
to our economic success;
•• provide learning resources to communities and
organizations of all sizes; and
•• apply these skills to build markets, increase
productivity and draw innovation from
diversity.
Sue Hanrahan has a background in training and development. As
establishment manager for the Centre for Applied Cross-cultural
Research (Victoria University of Wellington) she developed an
interest in the productive integration of skilled migrants into the
workforce. She works in association with iglobal coaching ltd,
promoting the economic benefits of diversity and developing
strategy.
STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 31
 Politics as if the future mattered
Phil Tate
The StrategyNZ event promised a unique
environment to engage on the core questions
relevant to the New Zealand of tomorrow.
It delivered on that promise through some
outstanding delegates and speakers. I was
particularly struck by the similar descriptions of a
sustainable vision for the country and the actions
required to achieve a future that all citizens could
engage in and find a place.
This singularity was partly a product of the
pressured workshop exercise, but the time-
constrained environment merely highlighted the
core issue with startling simplicity. That New
Zealand stands at the beginning of the 21st century
facing a set of challenges which demand innovative
thinking and a mature appraisal of the necessary
hard decisions. We know that last century’s model
of increasing our financial wealth at the expense of
our social and environmental capital is no longer
tenable, but then neither are our consumption
patterns without the economic underpinnings our
commodity industries provide. Typically this is
where the thinking sticks, locked in the intellectual
purgatory of two seemingly irreconcilable
perspectives.
So where to from here? A question many delegates
posed as the conference drew to a close.
This debate has been for the majority of society
a reasonably academic exercise until recently.
The respective protagonists are observed, but life
for most is not impacted in any meaningful way.
However, a couple of rather challenging aspects are
now emerging to undermine this neutral position.
The first is the financial crisis with its attendant
local pain and spectre of long-term economic
malaise, despite commentators’ desperate search
for silver linings. This constant quest is perhaps in
part to avoid the fundamental questions raised by
an ongoing no/low growth economy. The second
is the recognition that earth's ability to sustain
a burgeoning global population has been truly
exceeded and that the behaviour of commodity
markets, most notably oil, are reflecting this cold
reality.
Confronted with these interlinked trends it seems
self-evident that we need to change our behaviour,
but unfortunately it is perhaps the hardest change
for us to make. There is a natural tendency for
32 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS
some to become fearful, whether it be with respect
to their immediate economic circumstance or
longer-term impacts of the changing World. The
temptation to shoot the messenger as a way of
coping with fear becomes compelling for some,
but has the unfortunate side-effect of undermining
discussions of solutions. A cursory glance at the
letters to the editor gives ample evidence of this in
action.
This phenomena is politically well understood,
especially by representatives who owe their
position to continued electoral support. The
consequence is a national debate focused on re-
creating the perceived successes of yesterday rather
than defining a radical vision for tomorrow. How
else can we explain the narrow cross-party mantra
of achieving GDP per capita parity with Australia,
whilst at the same time neglecting to define a
tangible, aspirational vision of what a New Zealand
of 2030 could look like, and the steps proposed to
achieve it?
Too often we heap opprobrium on politicians
for their perceived failures in this respect, whilst
overlooking our own role in creating the political
framework in which they act. We therefore have,
as citizens, a twofold role to play in building a
New Zealand fit for the challenges of tomorrow.
One is to continue with the passion and insight so
frequently displayed at the conference to address
the challenges and opportunities in our local
spheres of influence. A second task however, and
one that we perhaps neglect, is to engage within
the process to build a political framework for
effective dialogue which will take this remarkable
country to the next level. Thomas Jefferson noted
that ‘every generation needs a revolution’ and
certainly we are now many generations overdue in
revolutionising our collective thinking.
The upcoming Constitutional Review provides us
an opportunity to consider living up to Jefferson’s
challenge to improve the foundations of political
engagement to enable us to develop as a sustainable
nation. Whether it be the length of parliamentary
term (frequently a topic of comment at the event),
or the representation of minorities, there are
many areas of our political landscape that warrant
considered reflection.
2058
Perhaps if we can bring something of the energy
and intellect displayed at StrategyNZ to this task
we may indeed set the course to achieve the more
aspirational goals presented at the last evening in
the Legislative Council Chamber.

Phil Tate is an independent strategic consultant with

actoninsight.com. He is focused on working with organisations to
develop effective strategies to address the impacts of future trends,
particularly sustainability and resource use. His perspective is
based on a varied commercial career spanning manufacturing,
technology, financial services and wholesale distribution.

2058 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 33

 ‘Terrible tragedy of the south seas.
Three million people trapped alive’
– Thomas Jefferson Scott
Dr. Sue Peoples
New Zealand’s isolation is both its curse and its
blessing. Vast areas of untouched splendour appear
unchanged as processes of globalisation have
produced tides of urbanisation which progressively
engulf other western nations. Unfortunately,
our isolation has also meant that as a nation, our
capacity to engage with narratives of change to
achieve future sustainability has been reduced.
Furthermore, notions of independence and
self-reliance, introduced and embedded into our
cultural values by Victorian England emigrants,
have been retained, no more so than in rural New
Zealand, thus restricting our capacity to look
externally for change.
Since the early pastoralists colonised the South
Island in the 1850s, agriculture has been the
mainstay of New Zealand’s economy, though we
no longer live off the sheep’s back, the dairy cow
has taken over that role. And for many Kiwis,
agriculture remains New Zealand’s future … unless
they went to the StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future
workshop and saw that there are alternatives.
As an employee of an agricultural organisation,
farming discourse dominates our discussions about
New Zealand’s future. Research strives to achieve
higher levels of productivity from cows and grass.
Alas as New Zealand is quickly realising, what
goes in one end does not all come out the other as
white milk. Severe environmental problems due
to a legacy of intensive pastoral farm systems are
threatening our country’s natural environment,
but still we push on with the bigger is better
paradigm, producing agricultural gadgets, and
widgets to ensure Daisy’s udder can fill the vat.
And there are strong arguments to endorse
agriculture as New Zealand’s future. World
demographers predict that the world's population
will be 10 billion by 2100 and they all need to be
fed. Realistically though New Zealand cannot and
should not be aspiring to feed the world. Alas,
the masculine discourses which have prevailed
throughout New Zealand’s agricultural history
are still heard echoing through the corridors of
power and this is their goal. They espouse notions
that emphasise that size does matter, and that
New Zealand is a nation of farmers through and
through, that is what we know so that is what we
34 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS
should do. Alas, it is these archaic views that are
retarding New Zealand’s future and that is what
StrategyNZ highlighted we need to change.
In 2008 the World Bank found that, indeed,
investment in peasants was among the most
efficient and effective ways of elevating people out
of poverty. Take out the word ‘peasant’, and that
is essentially what many New Zealanders think
our government should do – invest in our farming
sector and that will mean our future is assured.
Unfortunately, we would also be guaranteed of a
third world status, albeit, one with some very nice
rugby stadiums, whilst the rest of the capitalised
world worked together to reach levels of prosperity
that are sustainable though to the next millennium.
StrategyNZ highlighted that agriculture is not
New Zealand’s future. The initial key note
speakers underlined that we need to think outside
of the square and stop relying on the old adage
we can convert grass into money. The only way
we could really do that is legalise cannabis and
that is not going to happen anytime soon! The
diversity of delegates overwhelmingly emphasised
that our continued reliance on wearing Red Bands
gumboots would not be our future. Although the
number eight wire approach is still endorsed as
one of our key strengths, it is time this is taken
out of the paddock and applied to other innovative
ventures and opportunities.
However, New Zealand must engage to do this.
As Peter Jackson once noted, ‘New Zealand is
not a small country but a large village.’ As a self-
contained village we feel safe and secure in what we
do well. But we sit down here with a false sense of
grandeur of who we think we are whilst the world
works together and progresses into the future
without us; we need them more than they need us.
New Zealanders are talented; they have become
world leaders in a multitude of disciplines. Yet,
those people generally leave New Zealand to
achieve their goals. The village needs to wake up,
and start to work towards greater collaboration
with other social groups to retain our own talent
and then attract that of other nations. If we do
not have the financial capital to do this then let us
leverage off our social and knowledge capital.
2058
StrategyNZ showed that the capacity for
strategic thinking is alive and well in the village
but then progress is halted by our insecurities
and distrust in others. Increasingly words such
as transdisciplinarity, multidisciplinarity and
interdisciplinarity are being used within research
and business. And once again, the StrategyNZ
workshop underlined that a multidiscipline team
composed of a diverse range of professionals
can work together to produce an outcome for
the greater good. Why can’t countries do this?
Traditionally highly protectionist, New Zealand
does not need to remain staunchly independent;
most of our land is owned by overseas people, we
operate in a neo-liberal economy and who really
is going to invade us for our 30 million sheep? So
why do we operate in such isolation?
2058
StrategyNZ highlighted that New Zealand can no
longer continue on an inwardly focused journey;
we will end up going around in circles with
continued severe myopia. Collaborations and
engagement with others will facilitate our growth
and our capacity and capability to achieve future
sustainability. And we need to think broader than
just geo-political boundaries; many opportunities
exist in other spheres now which are no longer
restricted by the placement of a wall or fence. We
must turn Thomas Jefferson Scott’s quote around,
Terrible tragedy of the South Seas avoided…
four million people unite for a sustainable
future … after they win the world cup!
Dr. Sue Peoples has been involved in two careers to date; teaching
social sciences in secondary schools, and working as a rural
sociologist. Her key areas of research involve studying the lives of
farm women, the impacts of climate change on rural communities,
the future of rural communities within neo-liberal regimes, and
if not farming, what next? In the future she would love to assist
less able communities and populations, nationally and globally, to
adapt to the social and environmental challenges presented by the
21st century.
STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 35
 3. Strategy
The case for a strategic approach

When you have a clear vision of where you want to go,

and the landscape you need to traverse, it is timely to
focus on designing the optimal strategy.

In these reflections participants have focused on the

imperative for strategy, the role of government and
other participants, and tools and processes that can
be used to achieve the desired strategy.

36 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 2058

The need for a national strategy for a
new economy
Beat Huser
Countries that have a strong focus on futures
thinking, such as Finland, Singapore or Switzerland,
are not only economically prosperous but also feature
on the top of the list of countries in surveys about
welfare, quality of life, well-being and happiness.
This, and bearing in mind issues such as climate
change or the global financial crisis, clearly
demonstrates that it is timely to dismiss the ‘economy
or environment’ argument once and forever.
New Zealand lacks a tradition of using
comprehensive strategic planning and foresight to
explore plausible futures for our country and to
inform the development of future-proofed policies.
While the complexity of today’s issues, and the
severity and global scale of potential adverse effects,
increasingly demand evidence-informed planning
and decision-making, New Zealand’s vision, goals
and aspirations remain vague, lack a clear purpose
and direction and generally are unattainable (e.g.
GDP in the top-half of the OECD; ‘clean and
green’). It is no surprise therefore that politicians,
business and communities share no common vision
for the future of our country.
We need to find ways to identify the proper values
of these assets and the services they provide. These
ecosystem services are generally not included in our
current market economy (as measured by GDP).
New Zealand could be a pioneer in developing
an ‘Eco-Economy’ based on natural capital (or
ecosystem services), including methodologies and
standards to guide best international practice.
For example, by replacing the current Standard
National Accounts (SNA), which includes the
GDP and is used and reported on by all countries,
with a new system of ecosystem services accounts.
This would include both monetary and non-
monetary (e.g. biophysical) values and would
support current initiatives by international
organizations such as the OECD and UN towards
a ‘Green Economy’. Such a new ‘Eco-Economy’
would reduce New Zealand’s vulnerability to
external global drivers such as commodity prices
and exchange rates and instead position New
Zealand as an (eco)-rich country providing valuable
assets to the rest of the world.

Key government functions and responsibilities Beat Huser is Manager of Sustainability Projects at the Waikato
such as environmental management (water quality Regional Council. He has been involved in central and local
and use, air quality, coastal), land use and transport government in New Zealand for the last 25 years with a passion to
link science and information to policy and decision-making using
planning have been devolved to local communities
horizon scanning, scenario analysis and indicators. Beat currently
(regional, district and city councils) without
works on integrated models to support spatial planning.
providing adequate guidance and resources.
This has led to significant issues, prompting
more central government strategic leadership
and direction (e.g. Canterbury, National Policy
Statement for Land & Water).

There is little doubt that New Zealand needs an

inclusive national vision and associated action
plan. A key consideration of such a strategy is to
emphasize and appropriately value our key assets:
our natural and cultural resources, our river, lakes
and streams, our air, land and soil, our beaches and
landscapes, our unique ecosystems and the plants
and animals they support, and our indigenous
culture.

2058 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 37

 Strategy in a non-linear world
Richard Logan

For most things, including strategy, there is an
apparent paradox or mismatch between our
predominant ‘linear’ thinking style and our
knowledge that most things in the world, including
most networks are non-linear. It therefore makes
sense that strategic planning as a subject has had
significant ups and downs over the last 50 years.
This paper considers at a high level the difference
between linear and non-linear and it considers in
greater detail one approach to non-linearity, called
power laws.
Linear thinking
Linear thinking includes many interrelated things
such as proportionate effects, reductionism,
equilibrium state and cause-and-effect logic. For
most of the past 200 years science (and everything
else) has largely been conducted in a linear
manner.1 It has often been brilliantly successful and
achieved great things, e.g. ‘put a man on the moon’
and got them back again.
Two examples of linearity:
•• 65 million years ago a very large meteorite hit
the Yucatan Peninsular of Mexico and it
triggered a mass extinction of life on earth with
75% of all species dying.2 This was a big action
that had a big effect. It is a clear example of
linear cause and effect.
•• Problem solving is often boiled down to;
problem definition, identification of options,
determining a set of criteria to assess the options
and then applying it to get a solution. This is
also linear.
Whilst both of my examples are true, if you take a
wider context, there is a problem with this linear
thinking. For example, they explain one of the
five mass extinctions, but where are the other
four big holes? Also, why didn’t the much larger
meteorites, causing craters of 100km and 85kms
across, in Siberia and the US 35 million years
ago, which caused no mass extinctions, have the
same impact? Something non-linear is happening.
For problem solving, we have known for forty
years that linear thinking has always failed to
solve complex social/economic problems (called
‘Wicked’ problems3) due to amongst other things,
not factoring in feedback loops.
So what is non-linearity?
Non-linear systems are systems in which changes
in initial conditions do not produce proportionate
changes in the final state.4 In the last 40 years, non-
linearity has gone from obscurity to becoming an
essential tool in many areas (e.g. physics, climate
change science, peak oil, finance, economics etc).
We now know that most systems in nature are
non-linear (i.e. they are the ‘norm’). Even linear
systems have non-linear aspects, hence my article’s
title. Historically it would have been a provocative
title. Non-linearity is made up of many
different approaches. These include ‘chaos’ and
‘complexity’. This article is about ‘complexity’ and
this means it involves ‘complex adaptive systems’.
Complex adaptive systems have as their signature
‘power law’ distributions. The term ‘power-
law’ is relatively new, and it has as its signature
the straight line ‘log-log graph’.5 The power-law
distribution is often called the ‘long tail’ or ‘fat tail’
because of the few extreme outliers which is the
key feature of the distribution.
To understand what a non-linear power law
distribution system is, you need to compare it with
the linear ‘Normal’ or ‘Bell’ curve. In the graph
below, Barabasi6 compares the major interstate
highways linking major cities with the major
airline routes to the major cities in the US. The
highways followed a normal distribution, whereas
the airline routes had significant hubs, which is a
feature of a power law distribution.

1 Gluckman, Sir Peter (April 2011). Towards better use of evidence in policy formation: a discussion paper. Office of the Prime Minister’s Science
Advisory Committee.
2 Buchanan, Mark (2000). Ubiquity – The Science of history…Or Why the World is Simpler Than We Think. Weidenfeld and Nicholson. London.
England. pp. 102-112.
3 Australian Government/Australian Public Service Commission (2007). Tackling Wicked Problems – A Policy Perspective. Contemporary
Government Challenges. http://apsc.gov.au/publications07/wickedproblems.pdf
4 Thuan, Trinh Xuan (2001). Chaos and Harmony. Perspectives on Scientific Revolutions of the Twentieth Century. Oxford University Press. New
York. USA. pp. 340-346.
5 Wikipedia – Power Law. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law 07/05/2010.
6 Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo (2002). Linked – The New Science of Networks. Perseus Publishing. Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. pp. 67-72.

38 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 2058

The Normal/Bell Curve versus the Power law Power law curve for avalanches in a mathematical
Distribution7 model of a sand pile9

Power laws
To identify a power law distribution you apply the
data to a double logarithmic graph (called a ‘log-
log’ graph) and if this is a straight line then that
part of the graph follows a power law distribution. Power laws are ubiquitous, other examples include:
A logarithmic scale is where each division is a
factor of 10 larger than the one that came before Language (Zipf’s law10)
it, for example, 1, 10, 100, 1,000 etc. The exponent
of the slope is called the ‘power’ which is why
we use the term power law. Each power law is
characterised by a unique exponent. Naturally all
power laws tend to look alike, but with varying
slopes.8

The master non-linear metaphor is the 1987

‘sandpile’ experiment of Per Bak (Danish
physicist). This ‘sandpile’ metaphor can be applied
to all complex systems, e.g. physical avalanches,
crashes of stock markets, evolution of species and
companies, economic cycles, political regimes
cycles, changes in technology, paradigm shifts
etc. All of this runs counter to our usual way of
Wealth UK 1996 (Pareto’s law11)
thinking about large events. The following graph
shows the ‘signature’ power law straight line
log-log graph.5

7 The Random (Normal or Bell Curve) versus the Scale-free Networks (Power law Distribution). (Barabasi, 2002).
8 Anderson, Chris (2006). The Long Tail – Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More. Hyperion. New York. U.S.A. pp. 126-7.
9 Ball, Philip (2004). Critical Mass – How one thing leads to another. Arrow Books. London. United Kingdom.
10 Power law curve for language – Zipf’s law for the English language. Casti, John L (1997). Would-Be Worlds. How Simulation is Changing the
frontiers of Science. John Wiley and Sons, Inc. New York. U.S.A.
11 Power law curve for economic wealth (Pareto’s law). The wealth distribution for the population of the U.K. in 1996, according to figures
collected by the Inland Revenue. This is a cumulative distribution; each data point shows the percentage of the population with net capital
wealth greater than the corresponding amount on the horizontal axis. (Ball, 2004).

2058 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 39

 Size of US companies12 (n=5m) Research citations15 (Redner’s law)

Zipf ranking of city size13 War (Deaths)16 (Richardson law)

Earthquakes Southern California14 (Richter Scale) World Wide Web17 Incoming hyperlinks to HTML

12 Power law curve for U.S. Company size distribution by employees (probability mass function). Data from 1997 U.S. Census. (Axtell, 2001).
Axtell, Robert L. (2001). Zipf Distribution of U.S. Firm Sizes. Volume 293 Science, 7 September 2001. www.sciencemag.org pp. 1818 – 1820.
13 Power law curve of city size – Ranking of cities by size around the year 1920, from Zipf. The curve shows the number of cities in which the
population exceeds a given size or equivalently, the relative ranking of cities versus their population. Bak, Per (1997). How Nature Works – The
Science of Self-Organised Criticality. Oxford University Press. Oxford. U.K.
14 Power law curve for earthquakes in Southern California between 1987 and 1996 from Buchanan but quoted by Beinhocker, Eric D. (2007).
The Origin of Wealth. Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of Economics. Random House Business Books. London, Great Britain.
15 Power law curve by Redner of the distribution of research papers according to the number of citations they receive. Buchanan, Mark (2000).
Ubiquity – The Science of history … Or Why the World is Simpler Than We Think. Weidenfeld and Nicholson. London. England.
16 Power law curve for War – The distribution of deadly conflicts according to the number of people killed according to Richardson. (Buchanan, 2000).
17 Power law curve for the World Wide Web (www) – The probability distribution of incoming hyperlinks to HTML documents on the www.
The outgoing links have a similar distribution. (Ball, 2004).

40 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 2058

If a power law distribution applies, then it will have
the following features:
•• ‘Scale-free’, with no valid average.
•• ‘Punctuated equilibrium’, with long periods of
little change, punctuated by short periods of
dramatic/revolutionary change.
•• The ‘butterfly effect’, where a small change at
one level of organisation can have a
disproportionate effect at the same or different
level.18 For example, the unexpected fall of
U.S.S.R. which demanded the complete
remapping of the world.
•• The ‘Matthew Effect’, also called the ‘winner
takes all’, rich get richer, cumulative advantage
or preferential attachment. For example, 2%
of the world owns more than 50% of wealth
and the poorest 50% own 1%.19
•• ‘Emergence’, where an effect or pattern arises
at a higher level than the individual units and
can not be explained or predicted at the lower
level. It ‘emerges’ from feedback loops, hence
emergence is greater than the sum of the parts.
This contrasts with linear systems where the
whole equals the sum of the parts, hence
reductionism only works perfectly for linear
systems.20
•• ‘Self-organising critically’ applies, where the
system automatically drives itself to a poised
critical point, where minor disturbances may
lead to events, called avalanches, of any size.
It is natures way of making possible enormous
transformations over short time scales.21
If a distribution is a power law, then pattern
prediction is possible, but point prediction
becomes impossible. Knowing the history of a
non-linear system provides little or no predictive
value as to the next event.22 It is not possible to
predict the size of the next earthquake, war, rise/
fall of the sharemarket etc. You can not tell when
the big ‘punctuation’ will occur, but you can study
the emergent macro pattern. The pattern has a step
gradient. For example:
•• Authors (Lotka’s law) – 1/4 as many authors
publish 2 articles, 1/9 publish 3 articles, 1/16
publish 4 articles.23
•• War (Richardson’s law) – double the deaths,
the frequency of the war becomes 4 times less
common.24
•• Wealth (Pareto’s law) – double the wealth
from $1m to $2m, the incidence of people
decreases is cut in four.25
•• Earthquakes (Gutenberg-Richter scale) – For
every 1,000 earthquakes of magnitude 5, there
are 100 earthquakes of magnitude 6 and 10 for
magnitude 7 etc.26
An aspect of concern for humanity, is the
dangerous paradox of increased networks, means
increased turbulence. This is because the world is
locked in networks – food webs, trade networks,
social networks, electrical systems, internet, stock
markets, political systems, financial systems,
ecosystems etc. Previously it was believed that
most networks followed the ‘normal’ distribution,
but we now know that most networks follow
a power law distribution. As the network gets
more densely linked, it becomes less resilient,
since the more efficient the network gets, the
faster the danger of spreading turbulence of any
size. Extreme turbulence will get more extreme
(Matthew Effect) with the emergent pattern of
punctuated equilibrium.28 The recent example of
volcanic ash affecting London’s Heathrow airport
(major hub) showed how effectively removing
only one major hub could take down a significant
part of the entire airline network. We can expect
turbulence of any size, including ‘black swans’.

18 Coveney, Peter and Highfield, Roger (1995). Frontiers of Complexity. The search for Order in a Chaotic World. Fawcett Columbine. New York.
U.S.A. pp. 7-10.
19 Ball, Philip (2004), op. cit., pp. 307-8.
20 Thuan, Trinh Xuan (2001). Chaos and Harmony. Perspectives on Scientific Revolutions of the Twentieth Century. Oxford University Press. New
York. USA. pp. 340-346.
21 Bak, Per (1997). How Nature Works – The Science of Self-Organized Criticality. Oxford University Press. Oxford, U.K. pp. 28-29.
22 Ibid., pp. 60-61.
23 Wikipedia – Lotka’s Law. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotka%27s_law 07/05/2010.
24 Buchanan, Mark (2000), op. cit., pp. 190-193.
25 Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2007), The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House. New York. pp. 262-5.
26 Gribbin, John (2004), Deep Simplicity. Chaos, Complexity and the Emergence of Life. Allen Lane. An imprint of Penguin Books. London, England.
pp. 138-143.
27 Ramo, Joshua Cooper (2009). The Age of the unthinkable – Why the new world disorder constantly surprises us and what we can do about it.
Little, Brown. London U.K. pp. 49-60.
28 Beinhocker, Eric D. (2007), op. cit., pp. 174-175.

2058 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 41

 In a non-linear world, strategy is about surviving
the ‘Red Queen Race’. The Red Queen Race
comes from Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking
Glass, where the Red Queen said, ‘In this place it
takes all the running you can do, to keep in the
same place’. There is no winning a Red Queen
Race. In evolutionary systems (i.e. all non-linear)
competitive advantage is temporary, there is
only a never-ending race to create new sources of
temporary advantage.29 Learning faster than your
competitors is the only sustainable advantage in
an environment of rapid innovation and change.
Resilience is key to survival, as the non-linear
world of tipping points and avalanches of any
size, means any quiet period is just an equilibrium
period between punctuations. Things are bound to
change, but you do not know when.

Richard Logan works as a Principal Policy Analyst in the Spatial

and Infrastructure Strategy Unit of the Auckland Council. Prior
to joining the new council, Richard worked at North Shore
City Council where he specialised in a wide range of strategic/
governance projects. This article summarises his recently
submitted Masters by Thesis (MCA) that he is doing through the
School of Government at Victoria University, Wellington.

29 Beinhocker, Eric D. (2007), op. cit., pp. 328-334.

42 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 2058

Scenarios – four plausible futures for
the Waikato
Beat Huser
Four scenarios were developed for the Waikato
Region. These scenarios have been developed
in four quadrants represented by how natural
capital is managed and wealth is measured. We
were helped by many people when writing these
stories. The scenarios were developed by engaging
government agencies, business, regional and local
stakeholders and the wider community by:
1. Reviewing other Scenarios around the world and
in New Zealand
2. Researching the key factors shaping the world,
New Zealand and the Waikato region
3. Gaining insights from project partners and the
community
4. Surveying regional strategic thinkers
5. Workshops with government agencies, business,
NGOs and the community to identify key
drivers and to draft scenarios
6. Testing and validation of draft scenarios
7. Reviewing and updating of draft scenarios
The Waikato scenarios explore some of the deepest
dilemmas of our times: profit versus people;
growth versus the environment; global versus
local; and rich versus poor (see figure below).
How these dilemmas are resolved might affect our
ability to improve economic, social, cultural and
environmental well-being.
Figure 1 The Waikato Scenarios
2058
1. Crowded House
The first scenario, Crowded House, shows how
the effects of an ageing population might be
reversed. New Zealand accepts a lot of refugees
fleeing major economic and climate crises and their
knock-on effects. The world is firmly in a global
era of unstable prices for power, water, petrol and
food, with long-term risks of occasional explosive
unrests. Many people are on the move and the
Waikato finds it challenging to absorb the number
of people that come to the region, but it is less
difficult here than it is in the Auckland Region.
2. Sleeping In
In Sleeping In, the second scenario, there is a lot
of inertia even though some people are doing the
‘right thing’. We pay little attention to how we
use our natural resources until the end of cheap
oil begins to hit home. Similarly, greenhouse gas
emissions are not seriously addressed until there
are major climate shocks. Once these shocks
strike, we are able to overcome the stalemates that
prevented early action, and manage our natural
resources carefully.
3. Nature Counts
In the third scenario, Nature Counts, conditions
worsen and we can no longer be sure about the
stability and predictability of Mother Nature.
The idea of ‘one planet, three decades’ takes hold
early. Growing local and regional actions begin to
address the challenges of economic development,
energy security and water quality. Although there
are transition hiccups, the sustained focus helps
drive development of a more sustainable economy.
4. Science Society
Science and Society, the fourth story about the
future, describes a world where advances in the
sciences and technology have fostered deeper
development of a knowledge based economy.
While we become wealthier, there are some
dangers associated with the sciences underpinning
economic developments. The combination of fears
and hopes surrounding the new economy lead
to the imposition of many more regulations. We
measure and monitor everything in society; some
argue that it is just too much.
STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 43
 For more details about the Waikato Scenarios,
including a summary, a full technical report and
stories told by people living in the four alternative
futures in 2050 (‘a day in the life of …’), see
www.creatingfutures.org.nz/waikato-scenarios

The scenarios help us better recognise emerging

issues and challenges and to think about how we
might respond to these. The scenarios were used by
the Waikato Regional Council:
•• To enhance collective understanding of issues
shaping the region
•• As a learning tool to build capability for futures
thinking
•• To inform decision-making
•• To provide input into regional planning, policy
and strategies
•• To help guide development of the WISE model,
an integrated spatial regional computer model,
see www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgEABCz1RrI

Beat Huser is Manager of Sustainability Projects at the Waikato

Regional Council. He has been involved in central and local
government in New Zealand for the last 25 years with a passion to
link science and information to policy and decision-making using
horizon scanning, scenario analysis and indicators. Beat currently
works on integrated models to support spatial planning.

44 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 2058

The magic is in the process!
Ella Lawton
It is not the destination but the journey that will
provide us with the tools we need to implement
a National Sustainable Development Strategy
(NSDS). These tools include our ability to
collaborate, embrace participation and have
courage in our vision to be a ‘truly sustainable
nation’.1
New Zealand remains one of the only OECD
countries to have no visible, communicable
National Sustainable Development Strategy
(NSDS). With only a single weak attempt to
fulfil our international obligation New Zealand
continues to lack the ability to move forward
confidently, with strategic foresight or towards
a sustainable future. In turn, the absence of
this overarching strategy limits our ability to
create holistic strategies in all other areas of
resource management such as energy, water, land
management, urban design and transport.
Continued failure to develop that ability will leave
our society vulnerable in dealing with the pace
of change it will meet during the rest of the 21st
century, nor will we create the resilient society we
will need to deal with future systemic economic,
social and environmental shocks.
The core components of an NSDS have previously
been identified by the Sustainable Future
Institute in Project 2058.2 Reports 4 and 5 provide
a foundation for understanding the necessary
components of an NSDS and in particular
highlight the importance of the process by which
an NSDS could be successfully created and
implemented.
1 Helen Clark’s vision, 2007 http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO0610/S00338.htm
2 Sustainable Future Institute website http://www.sustainablefuture.info/Site/Publications/Project_Reports.aspx
3 On average per capita in 2007 a New Zealanders footprint was 4.89 hectares. WWF. (2010). Living Planet Report 2010
http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/living_planet_report/2010_lpr
2058
The following article briefly highlights three
key messages related to the creation of an
NSDS. Firstly, an understanding that society
needs to shift to planning and operating within
a resource constrained world and secondly, the
need to develop a co-created vision based on
clear communicable principles for the country.
Thirdly, a plea to the leaders of New Zealand that
– ‘business as usual’ has failed; be courageous!
A Resource Constrained World
The planet is finite. It did not take my year 8 and
9 students long to understand the consequences for
society when they were shown this picture of the
earth, together with a graph showing the increasing
population and in turn, our increasing resource
consumption. The total area of bioproductive land
and water on the planet is 11.9 billion hectares. By
the end of 2011 the worldwide human population
will reach 7 billion. This equates to each individual
having a ‘fair earth share’ of just 1.7 global
hectares. Currently, if everyone on the planet lived
like a New Zealander we would need almost three
planets3 to sustain us.
Society cannot continue to create more of
everything in its unwavering quest to consume!
Managing the way we produce goods and services
will not be sufficient to reduce our resource
requirements to a sustainable level, the significant
reduction must come from lowering societal
resource demands. To do this we require a strategy
that individuals and organisations can understand
and participate in.
STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 45
 A Process of Shared Understanding and
Collaboration
An NSDS requires participation4 facilitated by
a process of shared understanding regarding the
broad sustainability issues we are tackling and
transparent collaboration to co-create a vision we
can all be proud of.
The key to the vision is that it must also provide
principles5 on which to base decision-making.
This set of principles ensures that the vision is
‘truly sustainable’. New Zealand society can then
discuss and weigh-up the steps required to reach
the common vision. Importantly, the actions must
align to the vision, the actions need to be flexible
so as to evolve and adapt with our rapidly changing
global context, the development of technology and
evolution of social norms and finally the actions
must be culturally, socially and economically
viable.6
Be Courageous
Creativity comes from recognising constraints and
exploring the boundaries. We need to clarify what
these natural constraints are then use innovation
and courage to overcome the challenges of
operating within these boundaries. We can be sure
that society will change over the next 50 years,
more than we have in the past 50, so what could
we look like if we were to prosper within these
natural constraints? What do we want to look like?
I propose that instead of New Zealand using the
trends from the last 10 years to forecast our social,
economic and physical infrastructure requirements
for the next 10, we create systems that not only
reduce our overall demand on resources but also
start to narrow the gap between New Zealand’s
resource rich and resource poor.

Ella Lawton holds degrees in law and ecology from Otago

University and was the first New Zealander to complete the
Masters in Strategic Leadership in Sustainable Practice based in
Karlskrona, Sweden. She is also a member of the UNESCO Natural
Sciences Sub-Commission and Youth Bureau. Since 2008, Ella
has worked with the Otago Polytechnic’s Centre for Sustainable
Practice. Ella is currently the South Island Project Manager for
the new FRST funded research project Ecological Footprint of
New Zealand Lifestyles and Urban Form. Ella has also undertaken
a FRST funded PhD position in the Footprint project through
University of Victoria, Wellington and leads the project in the Real
Change Programme.

4 Report 4: Institutions for Sustainable Development – Developing an optimal framework for New Zealand, p.14
5 In the sustainable society, nature is not subject to systematically increasing:
1. concentrations of substances extracted from the Earth’s crust (such as fossil carbon or metals);
2. concentrations of substances produced by society (such as nitrogen compounds, CFC’s, and endocrine disrupters);
3. degradation by physical means (such as large scale clear-cutting of forests and over-fishing)
Moreover, in such a (sustainable) society, people are not subject to conditions that systematically: undermine their capacity to meet their needs
(such as from the abuse of political and economic power).
6 As proposed by the Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development http://www.naturalstep.org/en

46 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 2058

4. Execution
How to initiate change

Execution brings the focus to performance. All the

energy and resources used in clarifying our vision,
gaining foresight and developing an optimal strategy are
squandered if we fail to execute the strategy properly.

The contributions in this section remind us that

the execution of a strategy for the future requires a
structured approach to change, and communication
that facilitates people’s engagement and participation in
a complex development with uncertain outcomes. Also,
that initiating change on a national scale requires strong
vision, foresight, strategy and committed leadership.

2058 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 47

 Strategy mapping – A technique for
facilitating strategy
Murray Wu
One of the key tools used at the StrategyNZ
workshop was the strategy map, as devised by
Kaplan and Norton.1 The strategy map concept
gave the participants a structure and process to
discuss and describe their views of New Zealand’s
future. In the confines of the workshop format
there were compromises: the timeframe was highly
compressed, and the strategy map and associated
tools were simplified. With these limitations, did
the strategy map prove to be a useful way to create
and represent a strategy for New Zealand?
A Device for Discussion
The essence of a strategy map is a picture
representing objectives that must be attained
to achieve an overarching purpose. It is a
simple concept that conceals the complex and
detailed nature of strategy – a hypothesis of the
interrelationship of inputs with outputs, an entire
management system that drives actions, measures
outcomes and reviews performance, a means to
allocate resources.
By stripping back the complexity and presenting
strategy in a simple manner, the workshop
enabled teams to concentrate on high level strategy
concepts: a vision for New Zealand, areas of
strength or advantage that could be exploited,
and a few easily described themes. In essence, the
Woodstock principle was applied – ‘stay as high
as you can for as long as you can’. Participants
were able to learn the key concepts quickly, have
focussed discussions and stay on task.
A Structure for Analysis
One of the attributes of a strategy map is that
it depicts cause and effect relationships. Teams
used the concept of cause and effect to test their
strategies and check that they had identified
the objectives that were the most important
to achieving the vision. The insights formed
from these discussions helped to refine maps
and improve their clarity. Maps could change
significantly simply by considering what enablers
would be needed to achieve the required outcomes.
1 R. Kaplan and D. Norton (2008). The Execution Premium, Harvard Business Press.
48 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS
A national strategy is not a linear set of
relationships and any such system made up
of social, cultural and economic components
contains complex interactions and a great deal of
uncertainty. However, the use of a simple test of
rigour drove meaningful debate without losing
people in the deeper details.
A Format for Communication
The required outputs from each team were a
strategy map, a magazine cover and a coat of
arms. These were used in formal presentations and
poster displays. The strategy maps tended to work
best in posters where participants could study the
proposed strategies. Whereas the magazine cover
and coat of arms were easily grasped but simplistic,
the strategy maps invited analysis and debate.
A Strategy Map for New Zealand
The practical use of strategy mapping is to drive
the execution of strategy. While the participants
in the StrategyNZ workshop strove to develop a
plausible national strategy, this was not the intent.
Instead, strategy maps were used to facilitate the
discussion and sharing of ideas, demonstrating a
process for creating strategy.
The StrategyNZ workshop showed that the
fundamentals of strategy mapping could be learned
and applied quickly. The benefit is that strategy
maps could be used to quickly and easily solicit
ideas from a wide range of stakeholders. This
information could then be used in the development
of a detailed national strategy. The resulting
national strategy map could then form the basis of
a rigorous strategy execution system.
Murray has the role of Executive Adviser to the CEO of Kiwibank,
providing strategic and governance support. In previous roles at
Kiwibank he has had responsibility for strategy execution, business
improvement and other enabling functions. As well as banking,
Murray also has experience in the chemical industry in the United
States. He has a PhD in Chemical Engineering from the University
of Auckland and an MBA from Heriot-Watt University.
2058
Constitutional review – thoughts on capacity
building and engagement
Roger Tweedy
Changing a nation’s way of working can be done
in many ways.
Constitutional review may be one way; however
another is the development of an engagement
culture, a leadership role that can convey all that
we do. Citizens must be involved in their local
communities, their cities and regions, and their
national direction.
We are in New Zealand at a crossroad. We are
in danger of being controlled by the experts.
Community views and inputs can be squeezed
out or become window dressing in the name of
consultation. Yet the problems we face as a society
are wicked and multi-faceted. They are too difficult
for one group of society to solve – we need all
at the table to gain long-lasting and sustainable
solutions.
The best local example in recent years is the
Australian state of West Australia where under the
leadership of Premier Geoff Gallop an engagement
culture was nurtured throughout the state.
This was underpinned by a capacity building unit
within the Premier's Office to assist agencies let go
of some power with some outstanding results.
2058
The future is a very uncertain place. We are well
past picking winners. A sustainable future is about
building community and government capacity to
engage is a way that can ride the white water.
Developing internationally are many new ways
of engaging in much more open dialogue between
citizens and governments and indeed intra-
government and intra-community. We need to
become a world leader in this space. Our size and
lack of layers of government are advantages.
Trust and honesty must become the mantra
to moving ahead as opposed to information
management and the expert reports of the past.
We have some small ‘flaxroots’ starting to
germinate in New Zealand e.g.
www.goodpracticeparticipate.govt.nz
and through the work of IAP2
www.iap2.org.au
Roger Tweedy has worked as a strategic broker and networker
across Wellington's business, government and community sectors
for over 30 years. His particular passions are work futures,
community participation and local economic development.
STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 49
 Increasing participation in decision-making:
How to initiate change
Neville Henderson
Two common themes to emerge from the
StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future workshop were
the need for more future thinking from all levels
of government and greater citizen involvement in
decision-making.
A major barrier to initiating change to make
our democratic systems more future focused and
participative is likely to be apathy within the
community. How do we raise awareness of the
need for changing our current democratic systems
and create a sense that a positive future can be
achieved through more active participation?
A useful change model that can provide some
insights is the ADKAR model. The ADKAR
acronym describes the process that people tend
to go through when successfully responding to
change: moving from Awareness of the need for
change, to Desire to make it happen, Knowledge of
how to go about doing it, Ability to actually do it,
and finally Reinforcement to continue doing it.
Raising awareness
In raising awareness of the need for change, several
questions will need to be answered including: Why
change? What is wrong with the current way we
do things? Why now?
To increase awareness, the need for change and
the risks of not changing need to be addressed.
One approach to achieve this is to ‘create a
burning platform’: make it clear that if we do not
change now then something negative will result
in future. While this is a common approach, it
is not always appropriate or successful by itself,
because the impact of not changing rarely affects us
immediately: e.g. climate change.
An alternative approach to raising awareness of
the need for change is to build hope for the future.
This can be more effective as it taps into people’s
need to make a positive difference to their own life
and the lives of generations to follow. People who
perceive change as a way to help achieve a positive
future are signing up to maintain the change until
the end goal is reached, not just until the immediate
danger from the burning platform has passed.
50 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS
Storytelling and the use of alternative future
scenarios are effective ways to help raise awareness
of the need for change. This approach has been
used to good effect in the For Maori Future Makers
report published by Te Puni Kökiri in 2007.
The report used storytelling to outline two
alternative futures from the perspective of a Kuia
reflecting back on her life and her mokopuna. The
scenarios paint the less desirable future that may
eventuate if we do nothing, contrasted with the
positive future that might exist if we take action now.
Creating desire
In order to create desire for change, the benefits for
people individually need to be clear. Essentially,
the ‘what is in it for me?’ question needs to be
answered in a compelling way for each individual,
not just for the community or the country as a
whole. Using storytelling to demonstrate the direct
benefits for people can also be an effective way to
create desire for change.
Another effective way to increase desire for change
is to involve people in the design of the change
itself. Active involvement in decisions around
‘how’ to bring about the change is one of the best
ways to gain support for the change. Someone who
has had input into the change will also be able to
explain ‘what is in it for me?’ to their colleagues,
friends and family.
Increasing knowledge and ability
Once people are aware of the need for change
and have the desire to support it, providing the
Knowledge of how to go about making the change
and ensuring they have the ability to apply this
knowledge is often relatively straightforward. For
simple changes, instructions covering the essential
information (e.g. how to fill out a voting form)
can be easily developed to fill any knowledge gaps.
For more complex changes (e.g. introducing an
online voting system), self-paced learning guides
and demonstrations may be required to make the
process easy for everyone to follow. This can be
supported by training to upskill those who need it.
2058
Providing reinforcement
To be sustained, ongoing support for the change
needs to be provided. Opportunities to reinforce
the change will need to be created and taken as
they arise. For example, success stories should
be communicated and shared. Where mandatory
changes are introduced, the consequences of not
changing also need to be managed appropriately
(e.g. fines issued for ignoring smoking bans).
An example of initiating change at a community level
The Shaping Our Future (SOF) project underway
in the Queenstown Lakes district is a good example
of the ADKAR model in action. The project aims
to increase community involvement in decision-
making on the future of the district. It is loosely
modelled on a successful approach taken in Canada
called Whistler 2020.
The unique aspect of the SOF approach is that
the process is driven by the community. Decisions
about how SOF is run are made by a Steering Group
comprised of both Council representatives and other
community members who see the value of increased
community involvement in decision-making.
Community awareness of the need for change
and desire to be involved in making it happen is
being increased through discussion forums. The
topics covered include the drivers of change for
the district, what a successful future would look
like and how to get there. Discussions are being
facilitated through forums, social media (Facebook,
Twitter, and a blog on the SOF website), providing
multiple channels to be involved.
2058
The output of the process will be a set of
recommendations to relevant organisations with
the knowledge and ability to make the desired
future happen (e.g. Department of Conservation,
Queenstown Lakes District Council and
community organisations).
The success of the approach will depend on
measurable progress being made on the initial
recommendations. Sharing these success stories will
help to reinforce the approach and ensure ongoing
community support for the changes.
The communication of success stories will also
provide insights for other communities and policy
makers looking for ways to create positive futures
through greater citizen involvement.
Neville Henderson is a Change Management Consultant at
Adaptation Limited. He has worked in the organisational
development field for over 12 years. His background in applied
psychology and human resources has led to his involvement in a
number of successful organisational culture change projects with a
focus on sustainable practice.
STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 51
 5. Final
reflections
Common threads

This section includes two final reflections on

StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future from staff members
of the Sustainable Future Institute. They comment on
the areas of consensus that emerged from both the
workshop and the contributions to this e-book, the
topics that resonated with the audience, and areas
where positive outcomes can be achieved and should
be aimed for. These final words encourage the thinking
and conversations from StrategyNZ: Mapping our
Future not just to continue, but to be acted upon for
New Zealand’s future.

52 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 2058

Reflection
Louise Grace-Pickering

The selection of a diverse, stand-out group of
speakers went a long way towards focusing the
workshop participants on areas where positive
outcomes can be achieved and should be aimed for.
For me, the two most compelling speakers were
scientist Sir Paul Callaghan and lawyer Mai Chen
and, given that their key ideas are represented
throughout the team outputs, they clearly had an
impact on the entire audience.
Sir Paul Callaghan spoke of making New Zealand
the place ‘where talent wants to live’. He not
only inspired us with his passion, he provided the
metrics to highlight the feasibility (and desirable
economic and social outcomes) of an economy
less reliant on agriculture and more focused on
the manufacture of goods with a high ‘knowledge
content’.
Mai Chen presented a compelling argument for
constitutional change to enable New Zealanders
to engage with government in order to resolve
complex and controversial issues. Part of this
change requires creating a longer term of
government, which would lead to the embedment
of long-term thinking at a national level. Mai
posited the idea that New Zealand should
consider itself a world leader in having a problem-
solving government that is citizen-focused when
determining its priorities.
Both speakers aim high. Their ambitions for New
Zealand are global. Both recognise where change
is needed and have a plan for how to achieve this
change.
In this book, participants of the workshop provide
their views, which include reflections on the event
itself as well as discussion about opportunities
for long-term gains in areas such as constitutional
reform and refocused economic priorities, as
presented by Sir Paul Callaghan and Mai Chen.
All the contributions are considered, insightful and
informative. The selection of Christian Penny’s
piece, ‘Response to the StrategyNZ Hui 2011’, to
open the book was an obvious one for the editorial
team. Christian has captured the spirit of the event
and correctly identified the ‘how-to’ challenge that
faces not only the workshop participants, but all
New Zealand citizens.

2058 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 53

 Resonance
Jessie Prendergast
As I waited to receive the contributions to this
e-book I was unsure what to expect. As a member
of the Institute who helped organise StrategyNZ:
Mapping our Future, but who was absent from
the event itself, I did not know exactly what the
participants had experienced. What were the
topics that resonated with them? Was my inbox
going to be filled with disgruntled comments? Had
those who had been in the room come up with an
answer to global poverty that would project New
Zealand to the No. 1 ranking in the OECD, with
sustainable growth ten times that of Australia, and
free healthcare, tertiary education and emission-
free transport for all? Did the participants even
care about, or touch on, achieving any of the
above? I was going to find out.
At the beginning, even before StrategyNZ was
conceived, the idea arose of doing ‘something’
that would engage with people who are interested
in the future of New Zealand. As planning for
the workshop developed, that was the only
requirement for being involved. What resulted was
the coming together of a large and diverse group
of participants who were positive and committed
to New Zealand, with an impetus to act to better
our future. Moreover, there was a consensus of
the need for long-term thinking to be embedded
into our government, businesses and the broader
community. The strongest thread that came
through from the participants was that we were
very fortunate to live in New Zealand.
54 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS
Many of the contributions to this e-book focus
on facing the challenges and the opportunities for
New Zealand in the future, whether they are our
geographic isolation, our ability to retain and grow
talent, our current political system and lack of a
written constitution, our diverse community yet
limited cultural awareness, or our current measures
and concept of economic growth. These themes
reflect the fact that StrategyNZ: Mapping our
Future provided a place and a process – an agora –
in which New Zealanders could voice their hopes
and concerns for their country’s long-term future.
The thinking and conversations from the event
should not end here, and the contributions to
this e-book and other feedback the Institute has
received are evidence that many others also feel
this event could be the beginning of a wider public
conversation. There is a strong impetus to act and
build capacity for long-term thinking at a national
level. It is vital that we work to make this vision a
reality and support those who are ready to make
an impact on New Zealand’s future.
2058
Workshop sponsors and supporters
Thank you for having the foresight to support this and other initiatives that explore the long-term
future of New Zealand.

Gold:

Silver:

Bronze:

2058 STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE – REFLECTIONS 55