Chapter 3: Materials and Methods

CHAPTER 3

MATERIALS AND METHODS

3.1 INTRODUCTION

The ultimate goal of the present study is to develop a quantitative,

probabilistic assessment Cuddalore coast faces from long-term shoreline
erosion/accretion, storms, and future extreme tsunami impacts. The impact of natural
hazards in a changing scenario of climate may increase the vulnerability and risk
faced by the community manifold. Hence, it is necessary to assess the frequency and
impact of the various hazards that affect the coastal zone. From the foregoing
accounts, it is evident that the coastal districts in Tamil Nadu and Cuddalore coast in
particular is prone to multi-hazards and it is necessary to investigate the various
hazards and their impacts in the various parts of the coast so as to draw suitable
management plans.

For the purposes of this study, coastal hazard map prepared will be based on
the interaction of hydrodynamic forcing on geomorphology of the coast and the
elevation of the backshore as well as the hinterland which is beyond the coast. The
majority of existing literature on approaches for developing physical coastal
vulnerability assessments characterizes hazards on an individual basis. Multi-hazard
studies are in nascent stage though vulnerability of coast for sea level rise is estimated
combining several parameters. Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) is based on a
variety of physical parameters (e.g. geomorphology, beach slope, relative sea level
change, shoreline erosion/accretion, mean tidal range, and mean wave height) that are
ultimately combined to evaluate relative vulnerability (Thieler, et al 2000a; Pendleton
et al., 2005). Often the CVI is extended to include natural hazards.

Sandy ocean beaches are the most popular tourist and recreational destinations
in the world and many urban settlements in the coast are located in the sandy coastal
plains and barrier Islands. However, the sandy beaches are easily eroded during
extreme events leading to landward shift in shoreline. However, when there is erosion
deposition occurs elsewhere. But areas facing erosion are increasing while the areas

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facing accretion are reducing due to the anthropogenic activities. Hence, shifting of
shoreline or shoreline migration is extensively studied worldwide. Beach erosion is a
serious problem along many ocean shores of the India. As coastal populations
continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is
increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates
of shoreline movement.

3.2 SHORELINE MIGRATION

Coastal erosion has become a major hazard in coastal areas due to migration
of human population towards the coast and consequent interference in the coastal
zone (Niesing, 2005). However, extreme events may cause erosion which is
sometimes irreversible. The potential impact of climate change is expected to increase
the problem of erosion not only by simple inundation but also by the increase in
tropical cyclones (Emanuel, 2005). The coast of coastal erosion has increased
manifold due to the increase in cost of coastal sites taking advantage of its
recreational utility and also due to extensive developmental activities including
industries formation and modernisation of ports, etc. Some of the activities which
need offshore structures, breakwaters and jetties for ports and harbours, result in
alternating erosion and deposition. However, while accretion is noticed immediately
in the down drift direction of the structures, the influence of erosion is over a longer
coastline.

With growing awareness on the problem and the expected impact of climate
change monitoring shoreline has become an important field of research in geosciences
during the past 2 decades. The advances in GIS have made the determination easier
and methodologies have been developed to determine the rate of erosion. Using
orthorectified satellite data to determine shoreline migration is now easy with
availability of multi-date satellite data (Tucker et al., 2004). Earlier studies have used
historical maps and MSS data for the determination of coastline. However, due to
uncertainty in the date of survey of the maps and low resolution of MSS data, studies
are now restricted to 20 to 25 years using Landsat TM and ETM+ data.

The data from different sources should be assessed for their quality and errors
and should be brought to a common projection. The shoreline extraction in GIS
environment is the next step and after extraction the shift in shoreline is assessed. The
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migration is negative when the shoreline shifts landward and positive when it is
seaward. The use of Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) an extension for
ArcGIS developed by USGS has improved the method of estimation of the change
rate.

3.2.1 DSAS

The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) is an open source application

which works within Environmental System Research Institute (ESRI) Geographic
Information System (ArcGIS) software. DSAS can be downloaded and further
information on the installation and use of DSAS can accessed at http://woodshole.er.
usgs.gov/project-pages/dsas/. Instructions, usage of the software and the configuration
of input and output parameters are well documented in Thieler and Danforth (1994a,
1994b) and Thieler et al. (2009). DSAS is a software extension used in measuring,
quantifying, calculating and monitoring shoreline rate-of-change statistics from
multiple historic shoreline positions and sources. The software constructs transects
from a baseline which is generally inland parallel to the shoreline and along the
transects, evaluates the variation in shoreline and calculates the rate of change. If the
rate of change per year is positive, the section on either side of the transect is
undergoing accretion and if the value is negative, it is erosion. One of the main
benefits of using DSAS in coastal change analysis is its ability to compute the rate-of-
change statistics for a time series of shoreline positions. The statistics allow the nature
of shoreline dynamics and trends in change to be evaluated and addressed.

The main application of DSAS is in utilisation of polyline layers as

representation of a specific shoreline feature (e.g. High Water Line) at a particular
point in time. A range of statistical change measures are derived within DSAS, based
on the comparison of shoreline positions through time. These include Net Shoreline
Movement (NSM), Shoreline Change Envelope (SCE), End Point Rate (EPR), Linear
Regression Rate (LRR) and Weighted Linear Regression Rate (WLR) Despite the
inability of this tool to determine the forcing of morphodynamics, it has been shown
to be effective in facilitating an in-depth analysis of temporal and historical movement
of shoreline positions and cliff geometry.

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3.2.2 Extraction of Shoreline

Extraction of shoreline position from different data sources involves

georeferencing of maps and satellite images using GCP and subsequently digitizing a
shoreline as polyline feature. The earliest shoreline data are derived from Toposheet
dating back to 1972 to satellite data of 2012. The extraction was carried out manually
instead of automated vectorisation using ArcSCAN as clouds in satellite data affect
the accuracy of shoreline. The Band 4 of LANDSAT MSS data Band 5 of Landsat
TM and ETM+ data were used as it shows the land sea interface clearly. The False
Color Composite (FCC) generated is switched on and off for verification of shoreline
as it shows the cloud cover clearly.

3.2.3 Analysis using DSAS in ArcGIS

In this study, DSAS Version 4.3 was used along with the ARCGIS 10 for the
calculation of shoreline rate-of-change. A personal geodatabase is created to manage
the data for shoreline analysis and to store the results. The shoreline extracted should
be in Projected Coordinate System in metre units. The shoreline of each year was
coded with attribute fields for date and date on which the satellite data is taken is
given as attribute. All shoreline features were then appended into a single feature class
in geodatabase, to prepare for calculating coastline change rates with DSAS. The
OBJECTID, Shape, Shape_Length are auto-generated by ArcGIS and date also
appears as it is already given as attribute. The DATE_ and UNCERTAINTY fields
are added in the attribute table. The DATE_ field data type should be text and length
should be 10 for data in which mm/dd/yyyy are known and 22 if time (mm/dd/yyyy
hh:mm:ss) is also known. For uncertainty any numeric field can be assigned as data
type. The uncertainty of the data depends on the spatial resolution. High resolution
with smaller pixel size has lesser uncertainty and coarse resolution data on the other
hand have higher uncertainty.

As the coast investigated is micro-tidal, uncertainty in shoreline caused by

tides is not added as additional field. Uncertainty is also caused by monsoonal
variation. During winter, the berm is eroded and the sediments are stored as sandbars
in the nearshore and during summer, the sand is returned to the coast reconstructing
the berm. Therefore, the shoreline of summer and winter may vary. Sometimes if
significant erosion is caused by a storm, the satellite data collected immediately may
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show landward shift of the shoreline. For the Cuddalore coast, the variation between
the shoreline positions of pre-monsoon and post – monsoon do not vary significantly
and the variation is less than 10 m.

The three basic steps in the Shoreline migration analysis are as follows:

1. Baseline generation for the rate of change measurement

2. Transects generation at every defined interval spacing along with the
metadata.
3. Selection of statistical for the calculation of rate of shoreline change.

3.2.4 Baseline Generation

A baseline is created either offshore or onshore, which is used as a starting

point for the transects that will be cast by DSAS. The baseline is either manually
digitised or using the buffer tool from one of the shoreline, which is most landward
(or seaward for offshore baseline) at a distance that will place the resulting buffer
entirely landward or seaward of all shoreline positions. Converting the polygon buffer
to a polyline and splitting and removal of the unwanted segments will result in the
formation of a baseline. Some fields are required to be added to the baseline polyline
which will define whether transects are to be cast towards offshore in the case of the
baseline located on land and landward for an offshore baseline.

3.2.5 Working with DSAS

The setting of parameters, casting of transects and calculation of statistics are

carried out using DSAS. In DSAS first the default parameters icon is clicked. In the
set default parameters the cast transect setting is defined and the baseline layer, its
group, whether transect should be cast offshore or onshore, transect spacing and
length are given as inputs. In shoreline calculation setting the shoreline layer used for
analysis, the field containing the date of the shoreline and uncertainty field are given
as inputs. The Meta data setting is used to input the details of the user and contact
information, etc.

The second process is to cast transects and DSAS provides a preview to edit
the transect or baseline before proceeding to the final process of calculation of change

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rate statistics. In the process, the personal geodatabase where the results are stored,
name of the transect layer that is to be generated, casting method whether simple or
smooth for straight coasts and curved coasts respectively, etc are defined. The
transects are generated and the attribute fields are also generated. The transect and
baseline can be modified after visual assessment using standard Editor operations in
ArcGIS. The operations include deletion of the transect in coasts which are irregular
causing intersection of transects and reorienting the transects, etc.

3.2.6 Calculating Change Rate Statistics

The transect layer is selected for the calculation and a click on Calculate
Change Statistics opens a dialogue box in which the different methods of calculation
are listed. The appropriate method is selected and once the tab clicked a table will be
generated and if the name of the file is “transect” the file generated will be named as
transect_rates_yyymmdd.dbf. The file is added to the ArcGIS table of contents. Now
the change rate statistics listed in the table generated is appended to the transect
feature class shapefile using the common field.

The computational methods for the rates of change of Shoreline in DSAS as

follows:

1. Shoreline Change Envelope (SCE): A measure of the total change in shoreline

movement considering all available shoreline positions and reporting their
distances, without reference to their specific dates.
2. Net Shoreline Movement (NSM): Reports the distance between the oldest and
the youngest shorelines. This distance if divided by number of years elapsed
will give the EPR.
3. End Point Rate (EPR): Derived by dividing the distance of shoreline
movement (NSM) by the time elapsed between the oldest and the youngest
shoreline positions
4. Linear Regression Rate (LRR): Determines a rate-of-change statistic by
fitting a least square regression to all shorelines at a specific transects. Further
statistics associated with LRR include Standard Error of Linear Regression
(LSE) Confidence Interval of Linear Regression (LCI) and R-Squared of Linear
Regression).

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5. Weighted Linear Regression (WLR): In this method more reliable data with
smaller uncertainty is given greater emphasis or weight towards determining the
best fit line.

Supplemental statistical information of standard error, correlation coefficient

and confidence interval are also calculated for the change rate calculated using
regression methods (LRR and WLR). Here shoreline hazard assessment the EPR and
LRR is attempted.

3.3 STORM SURGE

While shoreline migration is a continuous process, storm surge during cyclone

have profound influence on shoreline migration and substantial erosion of the coast
can take place all along the coast during cyclones. The surge can also cause
inundation, drowning and killing people, destroy homes by the force of the surge and
by undermining the foundation of buildings, and render the agricultural lands saline
and contaminate the coastal aquifer. The cyclone are also accompanied by strong
winds which besides contributing to the force of the surge and its height can uproot
trees, communication and power supply pole disrupting traffic. The impact of strong
wind can extend not only to the coastal belt but also for several hundred kilometres as
in the case of cyclone Thane. As regards the wind hazard which causes extensive
destruction, the entire coastal area is hazard prone and areas with different degree of
hazard cannot be recognised only on a state level.

Heavy rains are another hazard associated with cyclone. Here also the also the
impact extends far from the coastal zone and the area of landfall. During cyclone
Nisha which made its landfall north of Karaikal on 27th November, 2008, the wind
speed was about 35 kt (65 kmph) at Karaikal and the lowest estimated central pressure
was 995.8 hPa. But the system remained stationary for over 24 hours and as a result
caused exceptionally heavy rains. Though the total rainfall recorded in Karaikal from
25th to 27th November, 2008 was 46 cm, Orthanadu and Vedaraniyam received 85 and
75 cm in the same period. Heavy rainfall was recorded almost in all the coastal
stations in Tamil Nadu. On total rainfall for 3 days of Cyclone Thane a Very severe
cyclone in Cuddalore and district was less than 25 cm. Therefore, as in the case of
wind hazard, flooding due to heavy rainfall during cyclone has no relationship with

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intensity of cyclone. It is generally related to the track with reference to the shoreline
and movement of cyclone.

3.3.1 Assessment of Storm Surge Hazard

Early attempt to predict storm surge in India was by empirical nomograms

(Rao and Mazumdar, 1966), custom built programmes using shallow water equations
(Das, 1994). Numerical modelling has been developed in IIT, New Delhi (29, 30,
Shaji et al., 2014). 2D and 3D surge models commercially available viz., ADCIRC
developed by Leuttich et al., (1992) and Delft 3D developed by Deltares system are
being widely used. Open source surge models available like SLOSH and ANUGA
are customised for Pacific coasts and cannot be applied to the coast of Indian Ocean.
Mahendra et al. (2010) while preparing the multi-hazard map of Nellore District,
Andhra Pradesh have considered that a 5 m surge will inundate upto 5 m contour and
10 m surge will inundate 10 m contour as suggested by Dube et al. (2009). The
maximum possible surge in Cuddalore coast has to be determined to map the hazard
zones for storm surge.

Jain et al. (2010) estimated the extreme sea levels generated by cyclone for the
Bay of Bengal coast according to them the surge height on 50 year return period
ranges from 2.2 to 2.3 for Cuddalore coast. However, higher surge heights were
observed during past destructive cyclones. The surge height was during 1952
Nagapattinam cyclone was 1.3 m (Krishna Rao and Sen, 1953) and for the Tanjore
Cycone of 1955, it was 5 m. Though, the Rameshwaram cyclone recorded 6 m in
Thondi and much higher water elevation at Danushkoti destroying the entire town. It
is due to shallow nearshore in Palk Bay. Therefore, a 5 m surge is empirically taken as
the maximum possible surge level. Though, the Indian weather Report of IMD
reported that these cyclones were Very severe cyclones, latter studies have upgraded
the cyclones as Super Cyclones (Kulshrestha and Gupta, 1966; Krishna Rao and Sen,
1953). Further, during cyclone Thane, the surges level reached vary from 1.6 to 3.2 m
(Ranga Rao et al., 2013).

Based on the past history two hazard zones, one taking into consideration 3m
contour and the other with 5 m contour were considered for Cuddalore coast.
Accurate elevation data is necessary to collect the elevation data and to construct the
contours. The elevation available in toposheet and SRTM cannot be used as the
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minimum contour in the Survey of India toposheet is 10 m in 1:25,000 maps and the
accuracy of SRTM will also be insufficient. Elevation data collected by RTK-GPS
survey is available upto 750 m or 1.0 km from the shoreline. The coast in the northern
part in the Ponnaiyar – Gadilam river mouths and the Vellar-Kollidam wetlands in the
southern part of the districts have a gentle topography and the 5 m elevation was
found several km from the shoreline. Such extensive data collection is beyond the
scope of the present study as it involves huge expenditure. Therefore, high resolution
elevation data available is merged with SRTM data to generate the DEM which was
used to demarcate the 3 and 5 m contours. The map was prepared using ArcGIS.

3.4 TSUNAMI HAZARD

In countries like India where the tsunami return time is very large a lack of
awareness will be created by the time the next mega event strikes our coast. The
impact of tsunami is highly varied due to the effect of bathymetry and onshore
elevation. Shallow bathymetry of the nearshore increases the wave height of tsunami.
On reaching the coast the tsunami grow in size when it encounters a barrier resulting
in higher runup in the coasts protected by dune barriers. Examining the literature on
tsunami inundation in Tamil Nadu (Chada et al., 2005; Jayakumar et al., 2005) shows
that the runup during varies between 1.5 m to 6.0 m and the inundation from 50 to
3,000 m. Where the runup estimates are high, the beach was characterised by the
presence of dune ridges irrespective of the water elevation caused by the effect of
bathymetry. A high runup of 6.0 m was recorded at Mamallapuram followed by 5.7 m
recorded in Vadakku Poyyur village, south of Nagapattinam town (Subramanian
et al., 2005). In both places, dune ridges were found. While, the dunes played a
protective role, they also increased the runup enhancing the danger. On the other hand
where the topography is flat as in Vedarnaiyam coast and in areas where water bodies
like brackish water lagoons are present the runup was less but inundation was far
inland.

When the tsunami reaches the coast, its velocity decreases due to bottom
friction and consequent to shoaling effect the amplitude of the wave increases. The
wave height is inversely proportional to bathymetry and the tsunami characters are
modified by the onshore topography. Numerical modelling is carried out to infer the
runup and travel time to assess tsunami hazard.

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3.4.1 Tsunami Propagation Modelling

Sufficiently accurate modelling techniques have been developed in recent

years and these models require proper inputs on detailed bathymetry and topographic
features for the area being modelled. The Sumatran tsunami of 2004 also provided the
scientific community with an invaluable opportunity to validate and assess the
accuracy of current tsunami modelling and simulation tools (Arcas and Titov, 2006)
particularly due to the network of tide gauges which yielded data on travel time, the
water level recorded by satellite altimetry and extensive field survey by International
and National teams which yielded a wealth of information on the inundation and
runup in different parts of the affected coast. With the models validated by comparing
the computed and observed tsunami travel time and water level, modelling has been
utilised to assess the threat due to hypothetical tsunami originating in different
sources due to earthquakes over a range of magnitude (Burbidge and Cummins, 2007;
Burbidge et al., 2010; Wijetunge, 2010; Omira et al., 2010; Singh et al., 2014).

As mentioned in earlier chapter, several models viz., TUNAMI N1, N2,

MOST, COMCOT, etc., are available for numerical modelling of tsunami
propagation. These models have used finite difference, finite element, and boundary
integral methods to solve hydrodynamic equations. In the present work a finite
difference code of TUNAMI N2 (Imamura, 1995; Imamura et al., 2006) has been
employed to model the tsunami.

The overall scope of the tsunami modelling can be divided in to three stages

1. Generation
2. Propagation
3. Inundation and run-up

The parameters and type of the model employed at three stages is different and
depends on the condition of the site.

3.4.1.1 Generation

The generation of tsunami depends on the displacement of the seafloor which

are computed from seismic data. The generation stage of tsunami evolution includes

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the formation of initial disturbance of the ocean surface due to the displacement. This
initial water surface disturbance evolves into a long gravity wave radiating from the
earthquake source. Hence, modelling of the initial deformation is the most important
stage in tsunami modelling for which accurate data on displacement are required.
Poorly defined seafloor displacement results in uncertainty in the model results.

The fault dislocation of the December 2004 tsunami source and slip
distribution along the fault was not understood clearly (Geist et al. 2006b; Lay et al.
2005). The faulting mechanism appear to have involved several fault segments
rupturing at different instants in time, with the entire event spanning a time window of
about 20 min, from initiation of the rupture to completion. Based on models
(Mansinha and Smylie, 1971; Ji, 2004; Yagi, 2005) estimates of fault length was
computed to range between 350 to 650 km. But based on after shock which are
expected to occur in the slip zone a rupture along 1,200 km length was obtained. By
plotting the observed travel time from Paradip-India, Ko Tarutao-Thailand and Cocos
Island tide gauges in reverse a length of 1000 km was derived by Kowalik and Logan
(2005).

The ASSZ is indented by transcurrent faults forming large segments which

have different fault length, slip and strike (Mazova et al., 2012). The rupture along
ASSZ is complex with rupture taking place in several segments. For 1881
tsunamigenic earthquake near car Nicobar Ornitz and Bilhan (2003) proposed that the
rupture consisted of two segments 40 km and 150 km long separated by a 100 km
region. Therefore, keyboard model (Labkovsky et al., 2006) to infer the initial
deformation can be applied for simulation of tsunami generation. Labkovsky et al.
(2006) proposed that in December 2004, in the Indian Ocean 8 or 10 keyboard blocks
of the Sunda Island arc “shot” almost simultaneously and this powerful “chord”
produced a formation of huge source of earthquake and as a consequence appearance
of giant tsunami.

The complexity of the rupture was not fully taken into account in the initial
model of tsunami in the Indian Ocean. Though it could reproduce general features of
the tsunami with a considerable level of accuracy, and replicated some fine details of
the tsunami dynamics both in the open ocean (Arcas and Titov, 2006) differences
were noticed in the computed travel time and water elevation in locations of tide
gauge. Kowalik and Logan (2005) to accommodate the curvature of the subduction
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zone used a two block model with the northern segment of 700 km oriented in 350°
and the southern segment with a length of 300 km oriented at 335°. The slip was
assigned as 90° in the northern and 110° in the southern segment. Wang and Liu
(2006) and Chlieh et al. (2007) applied three fault plane models to simulate the IOT
and found that the rupture is for 1300 km in three segments and the transient model
yielded good result which was consistent with Jason – 1 and TOPEX/Poseidon
measurement and tide gauge data. Labkovsky et al. (2006) performed numerical
modelling with 3, 8 and 14 blocks and inferred that the results of the simulations
explained the complex character of runup values at the Thailand coast. Mazova et al.
(2012) using the 14 block model which was validated the results with “Jason – 1”
altimetric record. Based on the bathymetry of the coast from which the transcurrent
faults are inferred a five block model was used (Grilli et al., 2006; Ioualalen et al.,
2007; Swaraupa Rani et al., 2011).

Several models are being used worldwide (Gusiakov, 1978; Okada, 1985;
Titov, 1997) for the computation of static seafloor deformation to calculate initial
conditions required for tsunami propagation. The basic parameters required for these
models include the fault area (length, width), angle of strike, dip, slip, depth of
fracture, dislocation and moment magnitude of the earthquake (Fig.3.1). The
waveform generated varies with these source parameters and, hence, the definition on
above parameters are essential. As the rupture parameters have good correlation with
magnitude (Tocher, 1958; Wells and Coppersmith, 1994), they are calculated based
on their empirical relationship between the magnitude and each of the parameters
from a database compiled from past earthquakes. The estimates of the rupture
parameters are made by several geoscientist (Tocher, 1958; Iida, 1959; Albee and
Smith, 1966; Purcaru and Berckhemer, 1982; Scholz, 1982; Wesnousky, 1986) and is
being updated as and when the data from new earthquakes are added to the database
(Wells and Copper Smith, 1994).

3.4.1.2 Propagation

Tsunami travel outward in all directions from the generating area, with the
direction of the main energy propagation generally being orthogonal to the direction
of the earthquake fracture zone. Their speed is proportional to the depth of water, so
that the waves undergo accelerations and decelerations in passing over an ocean
bottom of varying depth. In the deep and open ocean, they travel at speeds of 500 to
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1000 km/hr. The distance between successive crests can be as much as 500 to 650 km;
in the open ocean, the height of the waves is generally less than a meter even for the
most destructive teletsunami, and the waves pass unnoticed. Variations in tsunami
propagation result when the propagation impulse is stronger in one direction than in
others because of the orientation or dimensions of the generating area. Tsunamis are
unique in that the wave form extends through the entire water column from sea
surface to the ocean bottom. It is this characteristic that accounts for the great amount
of energy propagated by a tsunami. Where regional bathymetric and topographic
features modify the propagation, the waves undergo a process of wave refraction and
reflection throughout their travel.

To accurately model tsunami propagation over such a large distances, the

parameters like earth curvature, Coriolis force and the information on ocean
parameters such as tides, currents, waves are required because the dispersion of the
tsunami wave depends on the above parameters.

Fig.3.1: Fault parameters used for computation of initial sea surface

deformation at source

The hazard assessment is carried out based on the IOT 2004 event and the
record of the impacts along the Tamil Nadu coastal regions along with their damages
of areas based on their hazard potential. The IOT has possibly provided the maximum
possible damage due to tsunami of extreme magnitude. The distance to which the IOT
has inundated the coastal areas of Tamil Nadu considered as the highest hazard zone.
Here the various tsunamigenic sources along AST considered for the hazard
assessment for Cuddalore coast. As numerical modelling helps for the assessment of

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the inundation and other impacts due to hypothetical tsunamis, therefore, tsunami
propagation modeling is also attempted.

3.4.1.3 Run-up and Inundation

Due to shallow nature of the nearshore, the velocity and wave length are
reduced and on the other hand wave height increases. This results in increased run-up
in shallow inner-shelf region. As the tsunami strikes the coast, the run-up is modified
by the on shore topography and marginal marine features like inlets, lagoon, bays and
river mouth, which play a role is dissipating the energy of the tsunami. The presence
of barriers like sand dunes and steeper onland topography no doubt protect the coast
but the run-up increases as the propagating tsunami encounters a barrier as it tends to
over ride the barrier.

The run-up of the tsunami on land is the most uncertain part of the tsunami
model, primarily because of lack of two major types of data - high quality field
measurements for testing of the models and fine resolution bathymetry / topographic
data (Titov and Synolakis, 1997).

The output of the models will be useful for preparation of the following
elements:

• Maps of extreme / maximum run-up

• Probabilities of different run-ups and impacts

• Zones of high hazard areas (headlands, bay, inlet)

The run-up and inundation are over estimated when earthquakes of moderate
magnitude trigger submarine landslides. These nearshore-generated tsunamis, provide
very little warning and are characterized by large localized peak run-ups (Synolakis
et al., 2002).

3.4.2 Tsunami Numerical Modelling - Governing Equations

Numerical models have been used in recent years to simulate tsunami

propagation and interaction with land masses. Most tsunami models are dependent on
numerical equations, but they often employ different numerical techniques applied to

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different segments of the total problem starting from tsunami generation, propagation
and run-up on coastal areas. For example, several numerical models have been used to
simulate the interaction of tsunamis with islands. These models have used finite
difference, finite element, and boundary integral methods to solve the linear long
wave equations. These models solve these relatively simple equations and provide
reasonable simulations of tsunamis for engineering purposes. In the present study, a
finite difference code of the Tohoku University’s Numerical Analysis Model for
Investigation (TUNAMI) - N2 model (Imamura, 1995) developed at Tohoku
University, Japan, and was employed.

Tsunamis which are mainly generated by the movement of sea bottom due to
earthquakes are long waves. In theory, the vertical acceleration of water particles is
negligible compared to the gravitational acceleration except for an oceanic
propagation of tsunami (Kajiura, 1963). Consequently, the vertical motion of water
particles has no effect on the pressure distribution. It is a good approximation that the
pressure is hydrostatic. The two dimensional equations for propagation of Tsunami
can be described below.

∂η ∂M ∂N
+ + =0
∂t ∂x ∂y

∂M ∂  M 2  ∂  MN  ∂η gn 2
+   +   + gD + 7 M M2 + N2 = 0
∂t ∂x  D  ∂y  D  ∂x D 3

∂N ∂  MN  ∂  N 2  ∂η gn 2
+   +   + gD + 7 N M 2 + N2 = 0 (3.1)
∂t ∂x  D  ∂y  D  ∂y D 3

where M and N are the discharge fluxes in the x- and y- directions, respectively, h is
still water depth, η is the vertical displacement of water, t is the time, g is the
acceleration due to gravity and D is the total water depth given by h+ η.

3.4.2.1 Initial Conditions

The present program is only for tsunamis. No wind waves and tides are
included. The still water level given by tides is assumed constant in the computation.
Accordingly, no motion is assumed up to the time n-1. It means, therefore, in sea,

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n− 1 n− 1
ηin, −j 1 , M i + 1 2, j , N i , j + 12 = 0 (3.2)
2 2

For run-up computation on land, the initial water level η is equal to the ground height
h.

η in, −j 1 = −hi , j (3.3)

It should be kept in mind that the values of h take negative sign on land.

3.4.2.2 Sea Bottom Subsidence

Sea bottom subsidence may be observed along the strike slip faults at some
locations where the step-over occurs (Fig.3.2). This is called pull apart mechanism.

Fig.3.2: Subsidence parameters at the tensile stress area

3.4.3 Tsunami Modelling Procedures

Basic data used for the TUNAMI N2 numerical modelling are:

Source constraints (seismic data)

Bathymetry data
Land elevation data

Software Used for Modelling

GIS Software – Arc GIS 10.2 and ERADAS

SURFER
MATLAB
FORTRAN 4.0
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3.4.4 Data

The quality of data input to the model often decides the quality of the output
generated from the model. The preparation of the input topographic and bathymetry
grid file is often the most time consuming part and extensive care is to be taken to see
that quality data is fed into the model. The whole exercise of running the model for
prediction on inundation and run-up would be redundant if the input bathymetry and
topographic conditions on the field are inadequate For the accurate estimation of
coastal impacts by tsunami through numerical modelling high resolution topography
and bathymetry data is required for the nearshore waters and for the coast for at least
1 km to 3 km from the coastline. This is due to the fact that the tsunami undergoes
tremendous changes by the continuous interactions with the sea floor in the nearshore
waters. Further, beyond 15 km offshore, the morphology of the seabed is uniform.
Similarly so far, landward side also beyond the 2 km inside the land no significant
damage by the inundation of tsunami was noticed along the Cuddalore coast even IOT
2004. While fine resolution topography and bathymetry data were used along
Cuddalore near shore domain and coarse resolution data was sufficient away from the
area of interest for tsunami modellling. The primary (field survey) and secondary data
(open source) were used in the tsunami model domain based on the defined
availability, possibility and necessary. In the present study different types of data like
seismic, topographic and bathymetric data were used.

3.4.4.1 Seismic Data

The earthquake location details (location, magnitude, and focal depth) length
and width of the fault, slip angle, vertical displacement, dip angle, etc are required to
compute the generation of tsunami as input in the model. This information will be
stored in a txt file. These source parameters form the basis for the estimation of fault
plane mechanism and subsequently for the modelling and the predictive capacity of
the model completely depends on the accuracy of the input (Wang and Liu, 2006).
The past tsunami generated records can also be used for the validation of present
tsunami model as well as for any hypothetical scenarios in future.

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3.4.4.2 General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO)

'The GEBCO One Minute Grid, version 2.0' is freely available with the one
arc minute spatial resolution throughout the world in gridded data sets. GEBCO's
grids are deep ocean products and do not include detailed bathymetry for shallow
shelf waters. GEBCO Grid display software (Version 2.13 of the software) is free
software used to extract the gridded bathymetric data sets.

3.4.4.3 Naval Hydrographic Office (NHO) Chart

NHO Chart No. 3003, title “Pondicherry Anchorage, Cuddalore Anch” of

scale 1:25,000 released on 30th November 2012 was used for the extraction of
bathymetry of nearshore shelf. The scanned image was georeferenced with ERDAS
Imagine software and after registration the depth contours were digitised with
ArcGIS.

3.4.4.4 Topography Data

In order to accurately model the extent of the inundation and run-up in the
coastal areas, high precision topography data is required. The common source of the
topography available for the Indian coast is from Survey of India toposheets. The
finest resolution topography data available is at a scale of 1:25,000, with the toposheet
representing 10 m contours. The damage caused by inundation falls mostly in the
region below 10 m contour. As the data is insufficient, land elevation data was
obtained by detailed surveying using RTK – GPS and Total Station.

3.4.4.5 Elevation Profiles Using RTK-GPS and Total Station

The land elevation data was collected from the field using Total Station
(Electronic Distance Measurement - EDM) and Real Time Kinematics Global
Positioning System (RTK GPS). Though total station gives precise data, it consumes
more time and man power working hours. The RTK GPS however, has lesser
accuracy but is fast in collecting data. For the present study, both RTK – GPS and
Total Station were used and the elevations data was collected along shore normal
transects of approximately 200 m interval upto 2 km from shoreline. Beyond 2 km the
freely available SRTM data were used.

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3.4.4.6 Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)

SRTM elevation data of three arc seconds (90 m) spatial resolution obtained
from the USGS EarthExplorer was used to complete the Grid D of Cuddalore. The
SRTM elevation data in raster format is converted into point data using ESRI ArcGIS
software.

3.4.5 The Basic Steps Involved in Setting Up to the Model

1. Defining of model domain

2. Elevation and bathymetry data collection / compilation from various sources
3. Data assessment for its quality through process of cleaning (using ArcGIS and
MATLAB)
4. Grid computation using appropriate interpolation algorithm (using ArcGIS and
MATLAB)
5. Grid assessment for computational stability

3.4.6 Cuddalore Tsunami Modelling Grid Domain

The coast for which modelling is carried out is 52 km in length. As the coast is
curvilinear, it could fit into domain 40 km long and 21 km width. As the model yields
good results if the D Grid is about 20 km, so the domain is divided into two for
modelling. Each D – Grid was set at 20 × 21 km. Similarly the Grid C was about 167
km in length and 278 km in width; Grid B was about 444 km length and 444 km
width. Grid A which covered the entire northeast Indian Ocean was about 3334 km in
length and 3889 km in width. The different grids are as shown in Fig.3.3. The tsunami
model domain and grid details are given in the below Table 3.1.

Using the Matlab programme the conversion of approximate coordinates to

equal spacing defined coordinates was carried out by feeding the minimum and
maximum approximate coordinates of two grids by nesting process (interconnection
of 2 grids for the creation for new grid with equal spacing). For Grid D the spacing is
3 seconds (approximately 90 m) and for Grid C the spacing is 32 seconds
(approximately 270 m) and for Grid B the spacing is 33 (approximately 810 m)
seconds and for Grid A the spacing is 34 seconds (approximately 2430 m). The Grid D

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was defined by covering the Cuddalore Coast and Grid C was defined little larger
around the Grid D and Grid B was defined little larger around Grid C covering both
Grid C and Grid D and finally Grid A was defined in a such a way that the entire
tsunami model domain covering the tsunami generation location and entire east coast
of India along with the Grid C, Grid B and Grid D.

Fig.3.3: Tsunami Model Domain defined for Cuddalore Coast and AST Blocks

Table 3.1 Defined Tsunami Model Domain; Each Grid Details (Coordinates
and Spacing)

Spatial
Grid Longitude Latitude Spacing Number of
Grids Resolution
Corners (Degree) (Degree) (Minutes) Grids
(Degree)
Upper Right 105 E 25 N 1555 ×
GRID A 81 0.0225
Lower Left 70 E 05 S 1333
Upper Right 82 E 14 N
GRID B 27 0.0075 535 × 535
Lower Left 78 E 10 N
Upper Right 81.5 E 12.5 N
GRID C 9 0.0025 601 × 601
Lower Left 79.0 E 11.0 N
GRID D Upper Right 79.91 E 11.79 N
3 0.000833 241 × 223
(North) Lower Left 79.71 E 11.605 N
GRID D Upper Right 79.91 E 11.61 N
3 0.000833 241 × 229
(South) Lower Left 79.71 E 11.42 N

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To test the model results, its predictability should be assessed by comparing

the computed and actual results. The 2004 IOT provided an opportunity to validate
the various numerical models including TUNAMI N2. Simulation was carried out
using the focal parameters of IOT 2004. The simulated tsunami run-up heights at the
coasts were extracted and the extent of the inundation has been derived using the field
surveyed topographic data and SRTM.

The quality of the numerical model output always depends on the input data of
the model. Here the expected model outputs are the spatial extent of the Cuddalore
inundation, expected run-up along the coastal villages and the expected Tsunami
Travel Time from origin.

The data required for numerical modelling include the parameters of the
tsunamigenic earthquake and seafloor deformation which constitute the seismic data
and the bathymetry and topographic data which modifies the velocity and amplitude
of the tsunami as it propagates towards the coast.

3.4.7 Topographic and Bathymetry Data Processing for Modelling using

ArcGIS

Different topographic and bathymetry data were collected from above

mentioned sources were brought it into a common Geographic Coordinate System
(GCS) World Geodetic System 1984 (WGS 84) of Longitude, Latitude and Depths
(X,Y,Z). The entire model domain data were checked for the overlapping and missing
data points within model boundary and corrected accordingly (addition and deletion).
The elevation data in the landside structures, water bodies, river areas were
interpolated after careful consideration of the field conditions before interpolation.
The corrected and confirmed final data sets with GEBCO, SRTM, NHO chart and
RTK – GPS and Total Station survey were merged into a single file in GIS
environment and finally the attribute table was exported into American Standard Code
for Information Interchange (ASC II) file format. The final file Z values were
converted into negative to positive for the easy interpolation and computation of wave
heights at each point.

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3.4.8 Various Steps involved in Data Processing

1. Defining then boundaries of high resolution data and land data

2. Interpolation of data to the required resolution, separately with appropriate
search radius
3. Merging of high resolution bathymetry data with land topography and
cleaning the data for overlapping areas
4. Removal of GEBCO data points in the region of high resolution data
generated in step 3 and merging with GEBCO Data
5. Convert all the sets in ASCII files and check for consistency in ArcGIS before
grid computation.

3.4.9 Preparation of Tsunami Model Data Grids

The complete data set (ASC II) has imported for grid generation in surfer.
Each grid was defined by its grid line geometry of X and Y directions along with the
minimum and maximum coordinates. The Grid A line of geometry was defined by the
spacing of 0.0225 degree with the total nodes of 1555 in X direction and 1333 in Y
direction. Similarly, the Grid B was generated with the spacing of 0.0075 with the
nodes 535 in both the X and Y direction. The Grid C was generated with the spacing
of 0.0025 and the nodes of 601 in both the X and Y direction. Grid D was generated
with the spacing of 0.0008333 degree for the north and south Cuddalore separately
with the nodes of 241 in X direction and 223 in Y direction for the North and 241 in
X direction and 229 in Y direction for South. All the five grids was created by the
accurate Kriging gridding method and finally all these surfer grids were converted
into Matlab grids as shown in the Figs.3.4, 3.5 and 3.6 for the tsunami model run for
the wave propagation and also for the estimation of wave height and inundation at
each node. The below table shows each grid minimum and maximum values while
conversion. Then for the Tsunami Propagation the divided model grid domain of
Grid A, Grid B, Grid C and Grid D also were computed and made ready for the model
run. Again by using the Fortran programme all the five grids were compiled and
created the execution file. By trail and error basis the model was finalised to run for 5
hours.

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Table 3.2 Cuddalore Tsunami Model Domain

Depths (m)
Tsunami Grids
Minimum Maximum
A -6334 3595
B -4324 1552
C -2721 624
DN -46.2 40
DS -53.2 15

Fig.3.4: Grid A with Grid Spacing of 81’and Spatial Resolution 2430 m,

Fig. 3.5: Left picture shows defined Grid B and Right picture shows Grid C
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Fig. 3.6: Grid D Left picture-North Cuddalore. Right picture - South Cuddalore

3.4.10 Grid Assessment for Computational Stability

The various grids generated are then assessed for their computational stability
using MATLAB. Problems if any are rectified at this stage so as to avoid any
instability or model blow–up later while running the tsunami model.

3.4.10.1 Simulation

Simulation for inundation model is divided into two major programmes -

computation of initial deformation due to earthquake and propagation from source to
inundation. For the simulation of the model FORTRAN software was used.

3.4.10.2 Computation of initial deformation of sea floor / initial wave form

This part of code requires the basic inputs, viz. fault parameters such as fault
length, width, focal depth, slip, dip, strike and dislocation and spatial extent of various
grids. After code implementation, initial deformation of seafloor due to earthquake is
generated.

3.4.10.3 Propagation from source to inundation

Computation of this part of a code is a challenging task. During the initial set-
up, the model blow up can be encountered due to errors in data, input
parameters/steep gradients in the model domain, boundary instabilities at the places
where backwaters, creeks, rivers etc were located. Among the four grids, inundation is

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critical as it runs in non-linear mode which requires careful assessment if the model
shows some erratic values.

3.4.10.4 The model output

The model output consists of

• Snapshots of water surface elevation at specified time interval

• Water surface profiles at gauge stations

• Travel time

• Animation snapshots

• Inundation extent

The output files of TUNAMI N2 program cannot be easily interpreted. In

order to get the best results, the output files should be converted into diagrams or
graphs so that the interpretation and the comparison of different data can be achieved
easily. After running the TUNAMI N2 model successfully, the run-up and the
inundation values for the study area have been generated for all the scenarios using
MATLAB Software. Using these figures the most vulnerable locations in the study
area were identified. The model output file, containing the extent of inundation along
the study area, was converted into a data file using MATLAB Software. This data file
was subsequently converted into a shapefile (which is readable to ArcGIS ) in order to
carry out the analysis of the results easily. From this shape file the inundation and run-
up height also can be drawn. This shapefile can be plotted on different topographic
maps as well as the imageries, and the damage to the coastal villages can be assessed.
The above process is repeated for different scenarios in different locations.

3.4.11 Tsunami Hazard Assessment Summary

The methodology followed for the study involved the set up of the TUNAMI
N2 model. The detailed methodology involved in the TUNAMI – N2 model for the
tsunami generation, propagation and inundation, topography and bathymetry data,
model grid domains are given in this Chapter. This methodology was applied to
identify and to determine the source where the most destructive tsunamis can
originate and which can impact the Cuddalore coast with maximum wave height and
to understand the relationship between the parameters of a tsunamigenic earthquake
and the run-up and inundation.
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