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SIMSIP EDUCATION:

SIMULATING THE COST OF REACHING DEVELOPMENT TARGETS IN


EDUCATION

Mohamed Ihsan Ajwad and Quentin Wodon

World Bank

DRAFT – COMMENTS WELCOME

Trial version: February 19, 2002

Objective and Acknowledgment

SimSIP (Simulations for Social Indicators and Poverty) is a set of user-friendly Excel-
based simulators that facilitate the analysis of issues related to social indicators and
poverty. The simulators can be downloaded from the web at www.worldbank.org\simsip
and used without charge, provided acknowledgment is given for their use. A CD Rom
will soon be made available.

Originally, the simulators were prepared to help Governments preparing Poverty


Reduction Strategies, but they can be used for other purposes as well. Some simulators
are "generic", hence they can be used for any country. Other simulators are regional, so
that their applicability is restricted to the countries of a given region. In some cases,
different simulators are available for different regions. Some simulators are country-
specific, but here again different simulators can be made available for different countries.
Most simulators are still in the development stage. Even when trial versions are provided,
the user is advised to check the web site for updates. The World bank accepts no
responsibility for the conclusions which maybe reached from the use of the simulators, or
for any mistakes in the simulators themselves. Please address all inquires regarding
SimSIP to Quentin Wodon at qwodon@worldbank.org.

SimSIP was developed in the Poverty Group of the Poverty Reduction and Economic
Management Division (PREM) in the Latin America and the Caribbean Region at The
World Bank. The work received financial support from the Central America and Andean
country departments, the Regional Studies Program in the Office of the Chief Economist,
the Dutch trust fund, and the Norwegian trust fund. Although the World Bank sponsored
this work, the opinions expressed by the various authors of the manuals are theirs only,
and should not be attributed to the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries
they represent.
1. INTRODUCTION

This chapter presents an Excel file that can be used for simulating the cost of
reaching education targets, and assessing whether these targets are realistic. The default
data in the simulator is based on the education system in Honduras. The simulator
performs essentially two tasks. First, it computes the number of children enrolled in
various schooling cycles over time, together with statistics on the efficiency of the
education system. Second, it estimates the budget necessary for the education system to
operate.

The forecasts for the educational outcomes (number of students in the system and
efficiency parameters) are obtained using a detailed cohort analysis. The cohort analysis
tracks the pupils entering the system through time as they progress from grade to grade. It
uses information on repetition, promotion, and dropout rates per grade or per cycle to
compute efficiency statistics (the age of the pupils at entry in each cycle is incorporated
in the analysis).

Once the cohort analysis is completed, it is relatively easy to estimate the cost of
reaching education targets since we know the number of pupils in school over time. Costs
are classified as recurrent, demand-side, and investments related. The biggest component
of the recurrent costs is the teacher wage bill which is computed by multiplying an
average cost per teacher by the number of teachers needed to cater to the student
population. Administrative costs are then added to the teacher wage bill. The simulator
also computes demand side costs resulting from the government granting stipends to
qualifying pupils. Investment costs are estimated for training new teachers, training
existing teachers, and constructing new schools. While the simulator is relatively
sophisticated, its data requirements are relatively few. These requirements are explained
in the manual, and summarized in the appendix. Benefit and marginal benefit incidence
analysis can also be obtained, but not crucial for a proper functioning of the simulator.

The structure of the manual is as follows. Section 2 describes the simulator.


Section 3 outlines the assumptions. Section 4 presents the steps one should take when
using the simulator. Finally, section 5 describes the technical aspects that lie behind the
simulator.
2. OVERVIEW OF THE SIMULATOR

Once the SimSIP_Education Excel file has been launched, a worksheet containing
the last set of saved values is uploaded. When the simulator is launched for the first time,
the display will contain the data as saved by the authors of the simulator. The simulator
was tested using data from Honduras and forecasts were obtained for years 2000 through
2015. Thus, 1999 represents the last data point for which actual values exist. When
specific values are discussed in this manual, it will usually pertain to the Honduras
numbers used here unless otherwise stated.

The front page of the simulator is divided into three panels.


• The assumption and initial conditions used in the simulator are contained in the
top panel. In addition to the assumptions that can be input in the top section, a
number of assumptions must also be input by clicking on the buttons in the top
section.
• The middle section displays net and gross enrollments for the various schooling
cycles based. These two variables are chosen among many educational outcomes
because of their comparability and popularity. These educational outcomes are
based on the assumptions made by the user regarding the changes in conditions
over the period.
• The bottom section presents the budgetary outcomes associated with achieving
the enrollment outcomes of the model. These budgetary outcomes include the
recurrent, demand-side and investment costs. In addition, the panel presents the
counterfactual costs, namely the costs associated with achieving the goals in
excess of the outcomes of 1999. A number of buttons are presented in the lower
panel and these are intended to provide the user with links to more information
and graphs.

Figure 1 shows the front page saved by the authors.


Figure 1: Interface for education simulator
On the right hand side of the lower panel, there is a table containing the checkup
ratio and the budget replication ratio. The former is the ratio of the number predicted by
the forecasting model to the actual number of pupils enrolled in school, for the last year
in which actual data are available. The budget replication ratio is the model’s forecast of
the budget to the actual budget. Here too, the forecasted and actual budgets are compared
for the last available point of data. These ratios serve to provide a goodness of fit of the
model and also to correct for systematic errors that might be caused by the forecasting
strategy.

3. ASSUMPTIONS OF THE SIMULATOR

There are four broad groups of assumptions that must be entered into the simulator.
Section 3.1 outlines the general information about the schooling cycles, section 3.2
discusses the country demographics, section 3.3 defines the performance or efficiency of
the education cycles, and section 3.4 elaborates on the costing information.

Before discussing the assumptions and variables, it is necessary to consider two design
characteristics of the simulator. The first is that the forecasts are conducted for
preschools (or preprimary) separately from other cycles of schooling. This cycle of
schooling is considered a stand-alone cycle with little relation to other cycles of
schooling because enrollment in the next level of schooling, i.e. primary school, is by and
large not dependent on enrollment in preschools. Although this assumption is generally
true in many countries, in countries where this assumption is violated, the user would
leave all the information pertaining to preschools blank and incorporate the preschools in
with the other schooling cycles. As a result, preschools will be treated as another cycle of
schooling that is interconnected with other schooling cycles. The interconnections will
be accounted for with variables like pass rates into the next level of schooling and also
with the population correction factor.

The second design characteristic is that the interface can accommodate up to six
schooling cycles. These six cycles of schooling are interconnected in that only pupils
who are promoted from one cycle can continue onto the next cycle. However, for
flexibility, a factor option is provided to allow users to change the populations of pupils
that may progress from one grade to the next. In other words, the factor would correct
for changes in the population not accounted for by the effects of repetition and promotion
rates. The simulator is unaffected in instances in which fewer than six schooling cycles
are of interest. For instance, in Honduras, there are four main cycles of schooling. These
cycles include an independent preprimary school along with primary, secondary I and
secondary II. Here the latter three cycles are interconnected though promotion rates and
through the population correction factor. As a result, only initial conditions for those
cycles are provided.

A number of variables need to be input for both the initial year and for the final year.
The initial year is the year in which the last set of actual data points are available and the
final year is 16 years following the initial year. For the case of Honduras, the time span
of interest was from 1999 to 2015.
There are two main reasons for this requiring that the user enter information for the initial
year and for the final year.
• First, over a span of 16 years, it is expected that variables would change due to
direct or indirect policy interventions. For instance, a policy to decrease the
proportion of pupils who repeat a grade could be incorporated using this
framework.
• Second, indirect effects may lead to changes in certain variables over time. For
instance, an aggressive teacher-training program, which improves the quality of
teachers, would likely have the effect of decreasing the dropout rate of pupils.

3.1 General Information

It is important to identify whether preschools are to be treated as a stand-alone schooling


cycle or as a schooling cycle that is interconnected with subsequent cycles in the
simulator. If the schooling system were such that completion of preschools is not a
prerequisite for enrollment in subsequent cycles, then the data would be input in the
“Preschool Cycle Details” button. On the other hand, if preschools were more
interconnected, where enrollment in primary schools is dependent on completing the
preprimary cycle, then the “Schooling Cycles Details” button would be selected and a
preprimary cycle would be defined as one of the six schooling cycles.

Figure 2 presents the window that appears when the “Preschool cycle details” button or
the “Schooling cycles details” button is selected. There are four choices for information
to be input, namely information about the schooling cycles, the entering cohorts, the entry
distribution details, and repetition and promotion data. Selecting the “Schooling Cycles”
button in the “Preschool Cycle” window generates an input screen similar to Figure 3.

Figure 2: Preschool cycle or other schooling cycle input window

Figure 3: General information about preschools


Since preschools, by definition, represent one schooling cycle, only two pieces of
information are required. They are the number of years of preschools and the ideal age at
which the pupils join preschools. In the above example, preschools span three grades and
the ideal age at which pupils join is 3 years. If preschools are not part of the budgeting
process or if preschools are interconnected with other schooling cycles, then this step is
avoided completely.

Selecting the “Schooling Cycles” button enables the user to enter general information
about schooling cycles. This button is selected to include all interconnected schooling
cycles. Figure 4 presents the input screen for the user to input general information.

Figure 4: General information about schooling cycles

For other schooling cycles, four pieces of information describing the characteristics of the
schooling cycles in the analysis are required. The variables include the names of the
schooling cycles and the number of years of schooling in each of the cycles.
Additionally, the population correction factor is required by schooling cycle along with
the ideal age of entry for the first grade of the first cycle of schooling. Finally, the year
of the last data point is required. It is from this year on that the simulator is engaged and
can be used to forecast values for 15 years. In the event that fewer than six cycles of
schooling are relevant for the country, the user should leave rows at the bottom blank.

The population adjustment factor is a multiplicative factor that adjusts the number of
pupils following through into the next cycle of schooling. These are changes in the
population that are not accounted for by the promotion and dropout rates in the previous
level of schooling. A factor of one would imply that no change in the population is
observed between that cycle and the preceding cycle. On the other hand, a factor of 0.8
would imply that 80 percent of the pupils who completed the previous cycle of schooling
continue into the next cycle.
In the window shown above, primary schools span 6 years (or 6 grades) and the two
levels of secondary schools span 3 years. Thus, our simulations are for 12 years of
schooling, where the grades are interconnected by promotion rates. The population
correction factors for each of the cycles are one, indicating that no corrections are needed
and that the repetition and promotion rates capture the necessary changes in the
population. Finally, the age at entry is into the first schooling cycle is 6 and the last year
for which data exists is 1999. Therefore, the simulator will provide forecasts for the 15-
year period 2000 to 2015.

The simulator also requires the share of the pupils who attend public schools, as opposed
to private schools. This information is required in the front page of the simulator. Figure
5 presents a portion of the front page.

Figure 5: Magnified image of the assumptions in the front page.

The share of students who attend public schools helps in the analysis of public resources
and in incorporating the role of private schools. The above figure indicates that 82
percent of all pupils attend public schools while the remaining 18 percent attend private
schools. The proportion in public schools remains constant throughout the 16-year
period.
3.2 Demographics

The entering cohorts for the first grade of preschool and for the first grade of the other
cycles of schooling should be entered in five-year intervals beginning in at least 20 years
before the last data point available and ending 16 years after the last data point. With the
current initial conditions, the last data point is for the year 1999. Therefore, population
data has to be entered from 1975 to 2015 in five-year intervals. A constant growth rate is
assumed to interpolate the population for other years.
An entering cohort is the number of pupils who are of the ideal age to enter the schooling
system. For instance, if a country’s schooling system were characterized by grades 1
through 12, then the population of pupils who are of the correct age in grade one would
represent the entering cohort. This would be true regardless of whether grades one
through twelve were divided into schooling cycles, such as primary, secondary, etc.
Entering cohorts are not the populations of the actual numbers of pupils joining the
school but of the population of people of the correct age from which the school
attendance is composed. Figure 6 presents the input screen for the entering cohorts.
Since the window is similar to the one for preschools, a separate window is not shown
here for preschools.

Figure 6: Input screen for entering cohorts – Ideal Age

It was previously declared that the entering age of pupils into the first grade of the first
cycle of schooling was 6 years and that the last year of data was for 1999. Thus, figure 6
required population data for years 1975 through 2015. There were 96,395 six year olds
in 1975 and the projection of six year olds for 2015 is 200,749. Note again that these are
not the numbers of pupils who enter school, instead they are the numbers of people in the
entire population who are six years of age.

The simulator requires the populations of people up to seven years older than the ideal
age. In this case, the data are needed for year 1987. The year 1987 is significant because
it is the number of grades in all the schooling cycles combined subtracted from the last
year in which data are available. Thus, if the school system spans 10 grades and the last
data point occurs at 2001, then the data for people older than the ideal age would have to
be entered for 1991. Figure 7 presents the window that appears when the “Other Ages”
tab is selected from the “Entering Cohorts” window.

Figure 7: Input screen for entering cohorts – Other Ages

Here the user is prompted to enter the populations of people ranging in age from the 1
year above the ideal age to 6 years above the ideal age. This information is needed only
for the last year in which data are available minus the total number of grades in the
schooling system. Since, the Honduras example assumed that 6 year olds are the ideal
age of entrants, the number of 7 year olds in the population is 123,001 in year 1987.
Here the last year of data are available for 1999 and 12 grades of schooling are defined.

In the case of preschools, the user would input the populations of people of the ideal age
for preschools for the period spanning at least 20 years prior to the last year in which data
are available. In addition, data would have to be inputted for other ages, which include
the population of people who are up to 6-years above the ideal age. Under the
assumptions for Honduras, the populations of people who fall into the ideal age would
have to be entered for year 1975 through 2015. The “Other Ages” tab requires that the
populations of 4 year olds through 9 year olds would have to be entered for the 1996.
Population data are not difficult to obtain, but places to start would be the United Nations
web site. For Latin American countries, CEPAL’s website (www.eclac.cl) contains some
very useful information. Nationally representative household surveys can also be used.
For the case of Honduras, survey data and data from Eclac were used. The Eclac data
contain time series information for children in different age groups. Since, the entering
age group for Honduras is 6 year olds, the age group 5 to 10 year olds was used.
Assuming that the population is evenly distributed, i.e. each of the ages between 5 and 10
have the same number of children, the total number of children in the group are divided
by 5. Eclac provided this information in five-year intervals. The data for other ages were
calculated using household survey data, because more precise information can be
extracted on populations by individual age groups. Thus, data for Figure 6 are from
Eclac and data for Figure 7 are from survey data.

In order to measure the effectiveness of the model and its predictions, the actual number
of pupils enrolled in each of the education cycles is required for the year for the last year
in which data are available. The ratio of the estimated to the actual enrollment rate is
then a measure of the goodness of fit of the model with the actual data. In addition, the
ratio is used as a multiplicative correction factor for gross enrollments in the analysis.
This factor is thought to minimize systemic errors. As will be discussed later, the user
could alter the model’s assumptions in order to obtain the best possible fit with the actual
data. In practice, large variations in the checkup ratio from one represent problems with
the assumptions or initial conditions.

The benefit incidence and marginal benefit incidence module facilitates simulations on
budget allocations to specific income groups. That is, the user would be able to simulate
the amounts of funds, which will be allocated to the different income groups. This
module is completely isolated and it is an optional section for users. Figure 8 presents
the input screen for users to input the data for the benefit incidence and marginal benefit
incidence respectively for the various schooling cycles.

Figure 8: Input screen for benefit incidence and marginal benefit incidence analysis
The two columns are for the absolute incidence and marginal incidence. The user enters
the data for the five income quintiles. All numbers have to be relative to the average. As
such, the absolute incidence in quintile one for primary schools is 0.6, or 60 percent of
the average across all quintiles, while the incidence rate in quintile 5 is 40 percent above
the average incidence. Similarly, the marginal incidence column contains the marginal
incidence coefficients for the five quintiles and all values are relative to the average of
the marginal incidence across all income quintiles. Therefore, in the above screen it
appears that the marginal incidence is 30 percent above the average for quintile one and
95 percent below the average for quintile 5. Marginal benefit incidence can be carried
out easily with time-series data. Alternately, Appendix A outlines a technique with
which marginal benefit incidence coefficients can be calculated using cross sectional
data.

3.2 Performance of the Educational Cycles

There are two main categories of educational performance characteristics, namely the
entry distribution details and the repetition and promotion rates. These characteristics are
measured by the number of pupils enrolled in schools, the age of entry, and their
progressions through the grades. The progression through the grades is measured by the
repetition, promotion and dropout rates. These variables must be entered for both the last
year for which data are available and for the last year for which the simulator simulates
outcomes. In this way, the simulator incorporates the quality changes and policy changes
associated with changes in the efficiency variables. Thus, for example, a reduction in the
repetition rate by a certain percent can be the result of a change in the threshold of
tolerance when holding pupils behind or it could be that the quality of instruction in class
is going to increase to the point that repetition would decrease.

The following definitions apply for the efficiency or progression variables:


• Promotion rate: The proportion of pupils who complete a grade, are believed to
have the requisite skills to continue into the next grade and choose to continue
into the next grade.
• Repetition rate: The proportion of pupils who complete a grade, are required to
retake that grade and choose to retake the grade.
• Dropout rate: The proportion of pupils who complete a grade and choose not to
continue either into the next grade or choose not to repeat the grade just taken.

The definitions of repetition, promotion and dropout rates in this simulator are such that
the three ratios are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. As a result, the
simulator does not allow for the possibility of a promoted pupil to dropout of school. In
addition, the dropout rate is one minus the sum of the promotion rate and the repetition
rate.

The simulator allows for promotion and repetition rates to be specified by schooling
cycle or by individual grade. However, it is assumed in the simulator that these variables
are not affected by the age of the pupils. It is also possible that promotion and repetition
rates are correlated with the number of times the pupil repeated a class in the past.
However, the simulator assumes that the promotion and repetition rates are unrelated to
the age of the pupil and are also unrelated to the number of times the pupil repeated
classes in the past.

Figure 9 presents the input screens for the user to enter the proportions of the relevant age
groups that enter preschools and other schooling cycles. Here again, the data must be
entered for the last year in which data are available and for the last year in the forecast
period.

Figure 9: Detailed Entry Information

The simulator requires the fraction of people who enter the first cycle of schooling. This
information is required for age groups spanning two years below the ideal age to 6 years
above the ideal age. In this example, 30 percent of the population of the ideal age
children join preschools in 1999 and 20 percent of the population that is a year older than
the ideal age joins preschools. The proportions of the population joining preschools
increases to 50 percent in the year 2015 for both age groups. As described earlier, a
constant growth rate is assumed for the period. Note also that in the example shown
above, the proportion of the population that is below the ideal age is zero.

The information regarding the efficiency of the schooling cycles can be input either by
schooling cycle as a whole, or for each grade in the schooling cycles. When the
information is entered by schooling cycle, it is assumed that individual grades in the
cycle have constant repetition and promotion rates across grades. In instances where
significant variation in efficiency parameters are observed between grades, it is advisable
to input the more detailed grade-level information. Many countries set repetition rates at
zero for pupils in preschools and in other low grades. The reason being that repetition at
an early age might discourage pupils and parents and lead to high dropout rates.

Figure 10 presents the window that appears when the “Repetition and promotion” button
is selected.

Figure 10: Entering information by cycle or by grade

In the above window, the user chooses whether to enter the information by cycle or by
grade. When the user selects the “By Cycle” button in the above dialogue box, a screen
similar to Figure 11 appears.

Figure 11: School performance information by schooling cycle

The above window shows that the promotion and repetition rates are 80 percent and 15
percent respectively in 1999. However, the rates change to 85 percent and 12 percent by
2015. If the user changes the information in the window, then the “Done” button should
be selected after the data has been input. The “Done” button resents the simulator to
accept the data by cycle rather than by grade. As a result, the “Done” button serves the
erase all the repetition and promotion information that was entered using the “By Cycles”
link.
In cases where educational performance information is available by grade, the user would
input the data into the dialogue box shown in Figure 3.12.
Figure 3.12: School performance information by grade

The above figure indicates that the schooling cycles in the analysis span 12 grades.
However, all the cells are blank because the data used by the simulator in this exercise
was entered by cycle. On the other hand, if the user provides information by grade, then
clicking on the “Done” button resets the simulator to accept the efficiency variables by
grade rather than by cycle. Again, the “Done” button serves to reset any numbers that
were entered using the “By Cycle” option.

3.3 Costs

The top panel of the front page lists, among other things, the costing assumptions
necessary to run the simulator. Figure 13 shows a magnified image of the assumptions
for preschools. The costs, which are disaggregated by schooling cycle, can be input in
any currency, as long as the user is consistent. These costing variables will then be used
to simulate the costs associated with reaching the educational outcomes.
Figure 13: Top panel of front page

Costs are broadly divided into three groups. These are supply side costs, demand side
costs, and supply side investment costs.
• Supply side costs: These costs include the teacher wage bill and the
administrative costs. The teacher wage bill is the biggest component of costs
incurred by schools. This quantity is computed by multiplying an average cost
per teacher by the number of teachers needed to cater to the population in school.
The teacher wage bill is defined as the average wage of the full-time equivalent
number of teachers. Thus, with the above settings the total wage bill by schools
divided by the full-time equivalent number of teachers is $4,500 in 1999. The
Number of teachers in the schools is determined by dividing the total gross
enrollment by the pupil-teacher ratio. Both quantities can vary over time and
hence affect the number of teachers in the school. Administrative costs, the
second component of supply side costs is defined as the product of the full-time
equivalent number of teachers by the wage rate for administrators. Because of its
intuitive appeal, administrative costs should be input as a percent of the total
teacher wage bill. For instance, in the above case, administrative costs are 10
percent of the total teacher wage bill.
• Demand-side costs: These costs are those costs intended to encourage pupils who
would otherwise not have attended school to attend school and to encourage
pupils who are at risk of dropping out of school to remain in school. In the
simulator, the incentives provided to pupils are structured as stipends provided to
qualifying pupils. Other kinds of incentives could also be provided in the form of
school meals or transportation for example. In instances like those, the cash
equivalent would be input into the simulator. Figure 14 shows that a $30 stipend
is provided to 25% of the existing pupils in 1999. Despite the labeling, the $30
stipend is actually the total cost incurred in providing a stipend and therefore,
includes administrative and other costs. Thus, the actual stipend received by
pupils is smaller than $30. The product of the yearly stipend, the gross
enrollment, and the coverage rate produce the demand side costs.
• Supply side investment costs: There are three components of supply side
investment costs incorporated in the simulator.
o First, new teacher training is the training offered to those who are not
already teaching in the schooling system. This training is intended to
expand the population of teachers. The total new teacher training costs are
given by TC = (Tt +1 − Tt )ATC . Where, Tt+1 represents the number of
teachers in year t+1, and ATC is the average new teacher training cost.
The number of teachers in each of the time periods is the ratio of the gross
enrollment to the pupil teacher ratio. Hence, the number of teachers is
dependent on changes in the population of entering pupils and on the
quality of the schooling cycle, as measured by the pupil teacher ratio.
o Second, existing teacher training is the training provided to teachers so as
to improve the quality of teachers or to alter the curriculum currently
offered to pupils. The existing teacher training costs are then given by the
product of the total number of teachers receiving training and the average
cost of training a teacher. Here the total number of teachers receiving the
training is give by the product of the coverage rate with the total full-time
equivalent of the number of teachers.
o Finally, investment costs include new school construction. If C is the
average cost of constructing a new classroom, investments for school
Y −Y
construction costs are estimated as: t +1 t C . Where Yt+1 is the gross
PTR
enrollment rate in year t+1 and PTR is the pupil teacher ratio.

In addition to the three categories of costs described above, the interface also requires
that the actual budget for the year 2000 be entered. Figure 14 indicates that the budget
for preschools is $15 million. This value is used to calculate the budget replication ratio,
which is shown in the right hand corner of the lower panel. The budget replication ratio is
the ratio of the estimated budget for 2000 to the actual budget for 2000. The ratio serves
as a “goodness of fit” of the model to the known numbers in 1999. As in the case of the
entering cohorts, if the difference between and actual budget and the predicted budget is
outside the user’s acceptable margin of error, then the assumptions of the model need to
be reevaluated for the country considered. On the other hand, if the ratio is within the
acceptable bounds, then the ratio is merely used as a multiplicative correction factor for
all future total budgets beginning in the first year of the forecasts.

4. OUTPUTS OF THE SIMULATOR

The simulator provides two main outcomes, namely educational outcomes and costing
outcomes. The front page of the simulator provides a summary of educational outcomes
and costing outcomes in the middle and lower panels respectively. In addition, a number
of links are available to reach more detailed pages of information and graphs. This
section outlines the outputs available and also describes the methodology adopted to
compute those outputs.

4.1 Educational Outcomes

Educational outcomes can range from enrollment rates to test score performance to
lifetime incomes. This simulator identifies six educational outcomes.
• Gross enrollment rate: is the ratio of the total number of pupils enrolled in the
schooling cycle to the total number of people who belong to the appropriate age
group for that schooling cycle. Since the enrolled population can include those
pupils who are of the appropriate age and those who are older than the appropriate
age, the gross enrollment rate can exceed 100 percent.
• Net enrollment rate: is defined as the number of pupils who are of the appropriate
age and who are enrolled in school as a fraction of the total number of people who
belong to the appropriate age group for that schooling cycle. Unlike in the case of
the gross enrollment rate, the numerator only contains the number of appropriate
age pupils and hence, the net enrollment rate should not exceed 100 percent. The
simulator may return a net enrollment rate in excess of 100 percent if the
proportions of entering pupils from the various age groups and the population
correction factor are incorrect.
• Years to complete: is the number of years a typical pupil would take to complete
a schooling cycle, given that some pupils repeat grades along the way. Years to
complete is computed by dividing the total number of pupils enrolled in school by
the total number of pupils who pass the last grade in the schooling cycle.
• Completion rate: is the proportion of pupils who complete a schooling cycle, i.e.
are promoted from the last grade in the schooling cycle, as a fraction of the
number of pupils who entered that class. This statistic includes the number of
pupils who repeated a grade or multiple grades along the way.
• Completion costs: are the costs associated with each pupil graduating from the
schooling cycle. It is computed as the product of the number of years a typical
pupil takes to graduate from the cycle with the total cost per pupil per year for that
cycle of schooling.
• Percent on-time completion: is the proportion of the pupils who complete the
cycle of schooling in the minimum time possible. Note that the model does not
allow pupils to skip grades for any reason. Hence, if a schooling cycle is
characterized by 6 grades, the percent of pupils who complete the cycle on time
will be those pupils who are promoted from the last grade in the cycle in 6 years.

The user of the simulator can select the combination of outcomes that are of most interest
and thereby, cost the process of achieving those outcomes over the 15-year period. Thus,
a user might want to cost the outcome of increasing completion rates from the current
level by 20 percent and increasing net enrollments by 10 percent, for example.
Therefore, the user sets the initial conditions to achieve the educational outcomes of
interest and then costs these outcomes. The simulator is designed in this manner so as to
allow the user to target a combination of outcomes rather than just one outcome and also
to choose the manner in which the outcomes would be achieved. That is, the mode by
which the target can be achieved is not always unique and hence, this interface allows the
user to specify changes in entry rates, or repetition-promotion-dropout rates, etc. that
would lead to the desired educational outcomes.

Setting goals is a challenge in itself and hence, the SimSIP_Goals simulator could be a
useful resource for users to set targets for basic social indicators. The simulator helps
users make forecasts of net and gross enrollments over a 15-year period using a cross-
country data set.

Among the six outcome variables of the model, the front page presents the most
commonly used indicators, namely the net and gross enrollment rates. Figure 15 presents
a magnified image of the enrollment outcomes.

Figure 15: Summary of enrollment outcomes

Figure 15 presents the net and gross enrollments by cycle for the various schooling
cycles. In addition, the row at the bottom shows the change in the indicator between
2000 and 2015. For instance, gross enrollments in secondary I change by 12.2 percent
from 47 to 59 percent in the 15-year period. A similar interpretation indicates that net
enrollments increase by 6.1 percent in the same time span.

Besides the summary of educational outcomes presented in the front page of the
simulator, more detailed enrollment information is available by clicking the “Enrollment
details” button. Figure 16 presents the detailed enrollment information that can be
obtained from the interface. The variables presented here include the gross and net
enrollments; the completion rates; the costs of completion; the percent of pupils who
complete on time; the average number of years for a pupil to graduate (given that the
pupil graduates); and the number of enrolled pupils. Each of the above variables is
presented by schooling cycle and is presented in five-year intervals beginning in the first
year in which the forecasts are conducted through the 15-year period. In this case the
outcomes are presented for 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015.
Figure 16: Detailed enrollment and schooling Information

The simulator also presents graphs of the outcome variables, by selecting the “Enrollment
Graphs” button. The time series for the variable is presented beginning in the last year in
which data are available through the fifteen-year period. Besides the obvious benefit of
the graph coming from a visual representation of the trends in the six enrollment
outcomes, the graphs also simplify the comparison of the variable over the different
schooling cycles. In addition, comparisons of the curves reveal that some variables are
closer in spirit than others. Figure 17 presents the graphs for the enrollment variables.
Figure 17: Graphs of the enrollment and schooling variables

4.2 Costing Outcomes

Besides forecasting enrollment variables for specific initial conditions, the simulator also
provides some costing information in the bottom panel. These costs are the costs
associated with achieving the enrollment goals, given the initial conditions of the model.
Figure 18 presents a magnified image of the costing outcomes.

Figure 18: Summary of costing outcomes


Figure 18 can be divided into four tables of outputs. The top left panel details the
recurring costs, the demand-side costs and the investment costs per year by cycle. To the
right of this table is a table, which presents the checkup ratio and the budget replication
ratio. Third, the total costs, given by the sum of the recurring costs, the demand side
costs and the investment costs, are presented. Finally, the counterfactual costs, which are
the costs associated with maintaining the level of outcomes from the last year in which
data are available, are presented.

Figure 19 shows a magnified portion of the three categories of yearly costs, namely
recurrent costs, demand-side costs and investment costs.

Figure 19: Three categories of costing outcomes

In the above figure, the three categories of costs are presented for the period 2000
through 2015 in five-year intervals. These costs are disaggregated by schooling cycle.
The following is a brief description of the definitions of the three categories of costs:
• Recurring costs: are the sum of the expenditures on teacher wage bill and the
administrative costs associated with running schools. Teacher wages and
administrative costs can change over time. The wage bill for the teaching staff is
the largest fraction of recurrent costs but is also the largest fraction of the total
budget of schools. The teacher wage bill is the product of the number of teachers
times their wage, with the number of teachers being a function of the total number
of children in school and the pupil-teacher ratio. Thus, reducing the pupil teacher
ratio improves education quality received by pupils at the expense of increasing
the teacher wage bill. However, this manner of quality enhancement may lead to
reductions in the budgetary requirements if the quality improvements have the
effect of increasing promotion rates or decreasing repetition rates. In addition,
quality enhancements may be defended on the basis of increased overall lifetime
earnings of pupils due to higher quality pupil instruction, etc.
• Demand-side costs: are the expenditures that have two main objectives. First,
they serve as incentives to parents for sending their children to school instead of
joining the labor force. Second, they serve to keep those pupils who are at risk of
dropping out of school in school. Demand-side costs for a particular year will be
given by the product of the total costs of providing a stipend to a pupil by the
number of pupils receiving the stipend. The number of pupils who receive the
stipend is in turn calculated by multiplying the total number of pupils by the
coverage fraction. Transfers in cash or in kind are allowed. The cost stated in the
worksheet should include all costs related to the provision of stipends or other
benefits to pupils. For instance, costs associated with the administration of the
stipend, the cost of data analysis in identifying the recipients of the stipend, etc.
have to be included in the variable labeled stipend. Coverage is defined as the
percent of all pupils who receive the stipend, as opposed to the percent of pupils
who are targeted by the stipend. That is, it is necessary to account for differences
between those targeted pupils and those who actually receive the stipend.
• Supply-side investment costs: are computed by summing three main cost
components. These are the cost of building new classrooms, the cost of training
new teachers and the cost of training existing teachers. The simulator assumes
that all new teachers, prior to taking employment, participate in the training
course. The number of new teachers needed depends on the number of children
expected to be in school in the next year and the expected pupil-teacher ratio.
Using the number of pupils and the pupil teacher ratio, the model predicts the
number of teachers necessary by dividing the former by the latter. The number of
new classrooms is the change in the expected number of pupils divided by the
pupil-teacher ratio. The number of shifts for classrooms is the number of sets of
pupils who use the classroom in a given year. Therefore, when classrooms are
used for several shifts, this reduces new construction needs.

Two patterns are evident from Figure 20. First, recurrent costs are generally the largest
part of the total budget allocated to schools. Second, it is generally the case that primary
schools command the highest budgets because it is at this level of schooling that gross
enrollment are usually at their height.

To the right of the categories of educational costs, is a table of the checkup ratio and the
budget replication ratio. Figure 20 presents a magnified image of the two ratios.

Figure 20: Image of the checkup ratio and the budget replication ratio

The two ratios presented above are defined as follows:


• The Checkup ratio: is the ratio of the number of pupils predicted by the simulator
to the actual number of pupils enrolled in school in the year 1999.
• The budget replication ratio: is the ratio of the budget predicted by the simulator
to the actual budget in the year 2000.
These ratios serve two functions. First, it provides a measure of the goodness of fit of the
model. Second, it corrects for systematic errors that might be caused by the forecasting
strategy by using the ratio as a multiplicative correction factor. For instance, the checkup
ratio in primary schools is 103.1 percent. This suggests that the forecasting model and
the actual number of pupils enrolled in primary school is overstated by 3 percent. On the
other hand, the simulator understates the actual budget by about 4 percent.

The table in the bottom left-hand side of Figure 21 presents the total educational costs by
year and by cycle. Figure 21 presents a magnified image of the total educational costs
disaggregated by schooling cycle.

Figure 21: Total educational costs

The above figure disaggregates costs by schooling cycle. It is clear from the figure that a
large proportion of the educational budget is dedicated to primary schools. For instance,
in the year 2000, 69 percent of all expenses were allocated to primary schools.
Conversely, the smallest portion of educational expenditures is allocated to preschools.

The bottom panel also presents the counterfactual costs. These costs are the additional
costs that would be incurred in order to achieve outcomes in excess of those outcomes of
the last year in which data are available, after accounting for the population growth rate.
Thus, if the outcomes of the last year in which data are available were maintained for 15
years, the counterfactual costs would be zero, even if the population growth rate were
non-zero. As a result, the counterfactual costs can be thought of as the cost of achieving
targets in excess of those achieved in the last year. In the case of government programs
designed to achieve a particular goal, such as Poverty Reduction Strategies, the
counterfactual costs would be the relevant number in the budgeting process. Figure 22
presents a magnified image of the counterfactual costs for the chosen initial conditions
and assumptions.

Figure 22: Counterfactual costs


The counterfactual costs shown above are disaggregated by schooling cycle and by
recurring costs, demand costs, and investment costs. The costs that would be incurred by
the 15 years are broken down by schooling cycles and by recurrent, demand-side and
investment costs. Much of the recurrent costs are allocated to primary schools. In fact,
62 percent of all recurring costs are allocated to primary schools to achieve the
educational outcomes. About $76 million in demand-side costs are allocated to the first
level of secondary school while demand-side costs are allocated to primary school.
Stipends are often not used in primary school because enrollment rates are generally
reasonably high and because dropout rates are not very high for this cycles of schooling.
It is also shown that investment costs are skewed towards primary schools, with the
smallest portion allocated towards preschools. As in the case of the total budget, the
largest fraction of the budget for each of the schooling cycles is allocated towards
recurring costs, where teacher wages are the largest expenditure.

Graphs of the time series of the costs are obtained by selecting the “Costing Graphs”
button. Figure 23 presents the six graphs. From left to right, the top row shows the
recurrent costs, the teacher wage bill and the demand side costs. Since the teacher wage
bill constitutes a high proportion of recurring costs, the two curves are very similar. The
bottom row presents the counterfactual costs, investment costs and the total budget
respectively. All the time series span the 15 years following the last data point.

Figure 23: Graphs of the costing variables variables


4.3 Benefit Incidence and Marginal Benefit Incidence

If the benefit incidence and marginal benefit incidence information is provided, the
“Incidence” button provides a link to the results of the marginal benefit incidence
analysis. It uses the counterfactual budget for the 15-year period to compute the amount
that would be spent on the five income groups assuming the marginal benefit incidence
factors specified by the user. This information is disaggregated by schooling cycle.
Figure 24 presents the output screen for the benefit incidence and marginal benefit
incidence.

Figure 24: Benefit incidence and marginal benefit incidence


In Figure 24 above, the top panel shows absolute benefit incidence and marginal benefit
incidence values for each of the defined schooling cycles. The box labeled marginal
benefit incidence contains the amount of resources that would be diverted to each of the
quintiles and each of the schooling cycles over the 15-year period when the higher goals
are sought after. An alternate explanation is that it shows the amount of the
counterfactual costs that are diverted to each of the schooling cycles and each of the
quintiles respectively. Figure 25 is a magnified image of the marginal benefit incidence
of the total counterfactual costs.
Figure 25: Marginal benefit incidence of counterfactual costs

The number in the bottom right, 1,221.6 is the total counterfactual expenditures for the
15-year period in millions. These costs are distributed to the various schooling cycles
according to the educational outcomes. However, the above table also details the
allocation of funds to the five income quintiles. The above table shows that quintiles one
and two receive about 62 percent of counterfactual costs are allocated to the primary
schooling cycle. The last row reveals that people in the lowest quintile would capture
$339 million, while the highest capture rate would be $409 million by quintile two.
There is then a steady decline with increasing income, with quintile five capturing $41
million in expenditures in the 15-year period.

To the right of the marginal benefit incidence box is a box labeled counterfactual costs.
Since this has been discussed before, it will not be discussed again.

The bottom panel contains two graphs for visual representation of the data. Figure 26
presents the stacked bar chart of the expenditures by quintile.

Figure 26: Percent of counterfactual expenditures by quintile


The interpretation of the above chart is straightforward. Quintile one, for instance,
appears to receive a slightly smaller proportion of the funds in secondary I, in comparison
to the other cycles of schooling. Quintile 3 shows that a smaller proportion of the funds
are diverted to preschools in comparison to quintile 3 in other schooling cycles. Figure
27 is a magnified image of the actual expenditures that would be captured by the five
quintiles.

Figure 27: Counterfactual expenditures by income quintile

The chart shows that primary schools have a considerably higher expenditure over the
15-year period for the lower quintiles, with quintile 2 capturing about $209 million and
quintile 1 about $172 million. It appears that preschools and secondary II capture about
the same in total, although quintile 3’s capture is higher for secondary II than it is for
preschools.

There are two important caveats that should be considered when conducting marginal
benefit incidence analysis.
• Marginal benefit incidence factors might change in the fifteen-year horizon based
on conscious or unconscious factors. In this analysis, it is assumed that one
coefficient can be adapted to the entire time period.
• Marginal benefit incidence factor is only accurate for sufficiently small changes
to the public expenditures. Over a fifteen year horizon, it is possible that the
changes in the public expenditures are no longer “marginal” and hence do not
apply in a meaningful manner.

The front page also provides links to graphs of the benefit incidence and marginal benefit
incidence graphs in the “Incidence Graphs” button. These graphs are useful to visualize
the current incidence of schooling expenditures across income quintiles and to show the
marginal benefit incidence over the 15-year period.
Figure 28: Graphs of the benefit incidence and marginal benefit incidence

The above graphs indicate that the benefit incidence, shown using the solid bars, is
generally proportional to income. This is generally true because affluent families
generally tend to capture public services faster than less affluent households. The
marginal benefit incidence, on the other hand, does not consistently benefit one income
group. In the above figure, the white bars show that expanding the amount of resources
allocated to education will benefit the poor and middle income groups more than it will
the upper income groups. Figure 29 presents a magnified image of the graph for
counterfactual expenditures on primary schools.
Figure 29: Counterfactual expenditures allocated to primary schools

The benefit incidence numbers, given by the solid colored bars in Figure 29, show that
the highest capture in public expenditures are by the richest households and the smallest
by the poorest households. On the other hand, the marginal benefit incidence appears to
show that quintile 2 and quintile 1 have the highest capture rates over the 15-year period.

6. WHAT’S BEHIND THE EDUCATION SIMULATOR

6.1 Cohort Analysis

Forecasts of educational outcomes are made primarily using a detailed cohort analysis
matrix. Cohort analysis in this context is simply a means by which pupils from one
entering class can be tracked as they progress from grade to grade. It takes into account
performance of the education system, as measured by the repetition, promotion, and
dropout rates per grade. In addition, the age of the pupils at entry in each cycle is
incorporated in the analysis. Since a cohort analysis matrix is typically designed for one
entering class, the simulator combines a number of matrices for the different entering
class to analyze educational outcomes at any given point in time.

The following assumptions are made in this simulator when performing the cohort
analysis.

• All the pupils joining a schooling cycle join in the first grade. So for example, all
entering pupils have to join grade 1 in order to progress through the cycles of
primary, secondary, etc. It is however, at the discretion of the user whether to include
preprimary as an interconnected cycle in the overall schooling cycles or to treat the
preprimary cycle as an independent unit with no relation to subsequent schooling
cycles.
• Double-promotions are not allowed. That is, all pupils are required to continue
school through the gradual progression of the grades and cannot skip any grades.

• At the end of each year, there are three possible outcomes for each pupil: promotion,
repetition and the possibility of dropping out of school. Each of these outcomes is a
distinct outcome and there can be no overlap. So for example, if a pupil is promoted
from grade 5, but decides to drop out, then the user would classify this pupil as a
dropout.

• Promotion, repetition and dropout rates may depend on the grade, but not on the age
of the pupil.

• Within each cycle, the share of pupils enrolled in public versus private schools does
not depend on the grade.

As noted above, the presence of the population correction factor in the simulator allows
user to relax some of the assumptions above.

To explain the cohort analysis matrix, an example is presented. In this example, an


entering cohort in 1999 is followed through the six grades in primary school. Table 1
presents the progression across grades and across time.

Table 1: Following a cohort through primary school: An illustration


Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6
1999 234805
2000 28177 187844
2001 3381 45082 150275
2002 406 8115 54099 120220
2003 49 1298 12984 57706 96176
2004 6 195 2597 17312 57706 76941
2005 28 467 4155 20774 55397
2006 79 873 5817 23267
2007 9 168 1396 7445
2008 28 302 2010
2009 58 482
2010 105

The above table describes a schooling cycle of 6 grades. In addition, the entering class is
assumed to start in 1999 and progress through the system over time. A cohort of 234,805
pupils enters grade 1 in year 1999. For simplicity, we assume in this example a constant
repetition rate for all grades, at 12 percent, and a constant promotion rate, at 80 percent.
This yields a dropout rate of 8 percent, also constant for all grades. In year 2000, the
number of pupils from this cohort still in grade 1, that is those who repeat, decreases to
28,177. This is due to the 12 percent of the pupils who repeat. Thus, denoting by R1k the
repeat rate which varies by cohort (superscript) and by grade (subscript), the enrollment
in grade 1 as a function of the year t and the cohort k is:

y(kt )1 = R1k y(kt −1)1 for all (t-k+1)> 1

The top diagonal in Table 3.2 follows the pupils who progress from grade to grade
without repeating any grade. Some 76,941 pupils reach grade 6 without repeating. Then
for year t, cohort k and grade j, if P(kj −1) is the promotion rate for cohort k and grade j-1, the
number of pupils enrolled in the diagonal of Table 1 is:

y(kt ) j = P(kj −1) y(kt −1)( j −1) for all t-k+1 = j

For example, the number of pupils in year 3 in grade 2 is 45,082. This is because 80
percent of the year 2000 grade 1 pupils pass and 12 percent of the grade 2 pupils in year
2000 repeat the grade. For the other cells in Table 1, we can generalize the formulas to
find the number of pupils from cohort k, at time t, in grade j as follows:

y (kt ) j = P(kj −1) y (kt −1)( j −1) + R kj y (kt −1) j for all t-k+1 ≠ j and j > 1

Note that only cohorts entering before t have an impact on enrollment in the schooling
cycle and hence, the contribution of y(kt ) j is zero when k > t.

The above is formulation is valid for one entering cohort. In order to take into account
the presence of multiple cohorts over time, the analysis must be extended. As such, the
number of pupils in grade j at time t is:
2015

Y( t ) j = ∑y
k =1993
k
(t ) j

Implementation in Excel is by replicating the matrices shown in Table 1 for each of the
entering cohorts. In this simulator, all entering cohorts from 1975 through 2015 are
considered in the analysis. Thus, 40 entering cohorts are used.

Once the number of pupils enrolled in a cycle of schooling is established, educational


outcome measures can be computed. Below is a brief derivation of the educational
outcome measures.

The gross enrollment rate is the ratio of the total number of pupils enrolled in schooling
cycle to the total number of people who belong to the appropriate age group for that
schooling cycle. Therefore, the gross enrollment rate for primary schools, in this analysis
is given by:
6 2015

∑ ∑y
j =1 k =1993
k
(t ) j

Yt = t
N 6−11
Where Nt6-11 is the population of children 6 to 11 year old at time t, and the total gross
enrollment in primary school at time t is Yt.

The net enrollment rate, which is the number of pupils who are of the appropriate age and
who are enrolled in school as a fraction of the total number of people who belong to the
appropriate age group for that schooling cycle, is computed in a similar manner.
However, the number of enrolled pupils is restricted to those who are between 6 and 11
years of age. Denoting by P (Aik ) the proportion of pupils from cohort k, who are of age i,
the number of pupils of the correct age and who are enrolled in the grade j is given by:

 11−( t −k ) 
x(kt ) j = y(kt ) j  ∑
 i =6
P( Aik )

where i=6,..,11, during the first year of the cohort, i=6,..,10 for the second year, etc. Note
that when (t-k) > 10, P(Aik ) = 0 . Then, the net enrollment rate can be written as,
2015 6

∑∑ x k
(t ) j

Xt = k =1993 j =1

N 6−11

The number of years that a typical pupil from cohort k takes to complete schooling cycle
is given by the ratio of the total number of pupils in the schooling cycle to the number of
pupils who graduate from the last grade in the schooling cycle. If the last grade in the
cycle is given by f, then the years to complete, Tk, is given by,
2015

∑y
t =1975
k
(t ) f
Tk = 2015


t =1975
Pfk y (kt ) f

The completion rate is the proportion of pupils who are promoted from the last grade, j,
in the schooling cycle as a fraction of the number of pupils who entered that schooling
cycle
2015

∑P
t =1975
f
k
y (kt ) f
Ck =
y (kk ) f

Where the denominator represents the cohort k at time k (i.e., the number who enter in
year k).

The percent of pupils from cohort k who complete grade f on-time is given by the product
of the pass rates in each of the grades in the cycle. Therefore,
f
Θk = ∏P
j =1
j
k

Here on time implies that the pupil does not repeat any of the grades in that cycle.
However, it does not say anything about the age of the pupils who graduate from the
cycle. Older pupils who enter the schooling cycle and progress without repeating any of
the grades would also be countered among the pupils who complete on time.

6.2 Costing

Once the cohort analysis is completed, it is relatively easy to estimate the cost of reaching
education targets since we know the number of pupils in school over time. The number
of pupils and the growth rate in the pupil population is the main driving force of the
budget.

The biggest component of recurrent costs is the teacher wage bill. This quantity is
computed by multiplying an average cost per teacher, w, by the number of teachers
needed to cater to the population in school. The number of teachers, T, is given by the
ratio of the total gross enrollment by the pupil-teacher ratio
Yt
Tt =
PTRt

Therefore, the teacher wage bill, W, is given by,


Yt
Wt = wt
PTRt

The recurrent supply-side cost, R, is then obtained by adding to the teacher wage bill a
provision for administrative costs. Here administrative costs are defined as a percentage
of the teacher wage bill and are given by at.
Rt = Wt + (1 + at )Wt

The simulator also computes demand side costs, D, resulting from the government
granting yearly stipends to qualifying pupils. The cost depends on the value of the
stipend, s, and the coverage rate, α (share of all pupils receiving the stipend):
Dt = st Yt at

Investment costs are estimated for training new teachers, training of existing teachers,
and constructing new schools. If Tt+1 represents the number of teachers in year t+1, and
ANTC is the average new teacher training cost, the total training costs TNTC in year t are
given by:
TNTC t = (Tt +1 − Tt )ANTC t
Training of existing teachers is given by the product of the number of teachers with the
average existing teacher training costs, AETC, and the coverage of teacher training, σ t .
That is,
TETCt = Tt ⋅ AETCt ⋅ σ t

Similarly, if C is the average cost of constructing a new classroom, investments for


school construction costs are estimated as:
Yt +1 − Yt
NSCC t = CCt
PTRt ⋅ S t
APPENDIX: DATA REQUIREMENTS TO RUN THE SIMULATOR

This appendix summarizes the data required for running the simulator. In instances
where values for 1999 and 2015 are given, values for the years in between are obtained
by applying a constant growth rate to the values for 1999 so that they reach the target for
2015 after 16 years. Table A.1 presents the list of the variables. The performance data
for the educational system can be input either by cycle or by grade. Table A.2 presents
the initial conditions of the current version of the simulator as calibrated for Honduras.
The table shows that the data requirements are rather modest. Note that the benefit
incidence and marginal benefit incidence are optional and hence are not required for a
properly functioning simulator.

Table A.1. Data required for running the education simulator

General information about schooling cycles


Number of grades per schooling cycle a
Ideal age at entry into first grade a
Population Correction Factor
Demographics 1975 1999 2015
Entering cohorts – Population of people who 5-year intervals 1975–2015
could enter school
Population of people up to six years older a
than correct age
Performance of education system by cycle
Actual number of pupils enrolled a
Actual budget a
Structure at entry a a
Repetition rates a a
Promotion rates a a
Performance of Education system by grade
Structure at entry Optional Optional
Repetition rates Optional Optional
Promotion rates Optional Optional
Cost information by cycle
Teacher wages a a
Pupil-teacher ratio a a
Schooling shifts a a
Administrative costs a a
Cost of construction of a new school a a
Yearly stipend offered to qualifying pupils a a
Percent of pupil population covered by a a
stipend
Share of pupils attending public school a a
New teacher training costs a a
Existing teacher training a a
Existing teacher training coverage a a
Table A.2: Initial conditions for Honduras

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