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Version 1.1, March 23, 2003, Copyright 2003 by Barringer & Associates, Inc.
For information contact Paul Barringer, P.E., Barringer & Associates, Inc. http://www.barringer1.com
This sheet is prepared for simple Crow/AMSAA simulation to demonstrate the methodology
It uses the simulation model described http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/apr/section1/apr191.htm
Crow/AMSA
A Equation-- N(t) = l*tb Solved For t--> t = (N(t)/l)^(1/b)
Paul Barringer, P.E. >
Ph: 1-281-852-6810 Choose Lambda--> 0.01
FAX: 1-281-852-3749 Choose Beta--> 0.5
Email: hpaul@barringer1.com Calculated Results From Simulated Data
Website: http://www.barringer1.com b l
Least Squares Regression--> 0.4582 0.0232
Press F9 To Simulate MIL-HDBK-189 MLE--> 0.5999 0.0037
Simulated Precise IEC-1164 MLE--> 0.4799 0.0179
(N(t)/l)^(1/b)
<--Change Input Data As Required
<--Change Input Data As Required
s From Simulated Data
R2 Failure Truncated Regression Equations:
0.9882 <--Trend line goes through centroid of data
<--Trend line goes through last data point
<--Trend line goes through last data point
Crow/AMSAA Plot
IEC-1164 MLE 10
Calculated t ■ Random Data
RR,
4,349 MLE,
18,437
Cum Failures
42,917
IEC-1164,
78,157 Precise (Exact)
124,424 Press F9 To Simulate
181,927
250,840
331,312
423,473
1
527,440 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
Cum Time
handbook/apr/section1/apr191.htm
ell H8) and b (Cell H9).
umbers. Call these U1, U2, U3,…Un
nd() produces a uniform random number (0,1)
andom numbers
umn c16:c25
Lambda 0.1 <--Y-axis intercept at time =1
Beta 0.8 <--Slope of Crow/AMSAA line
N <--Begin simulation with this specific cumulative failure (ignore zeros)
T start <--Begin simulation with this specific cumulative time (ignore zeros)
MIL-HDBK-189 Goodness Of Fit
Cumulative Cumulative
ln(t) ln(tn/t1) (ti/T)^b (2*i-1)/(2*(N-1))
Time Failure
14.27 1 2.6581594315 2.1051249976 0.0668078881 0.0555555556
18.90 2 2.9391619221 1.824122507 0.0958728296 0.1666666667
20.55 3 3.0228609409 1.7404234881 0.1067628048 0.2777777778
57.38 4 4.0496958106 0.7135886185 0.399616878 0.3888888889
68.02 5 4.2198017796 0.5434826495 0.4972838633 0.5
76.33 6 4.3350660458 0.4282183833 0.5766999175 0.6111111111
91.46 7 4.5159017182 0.2473827109 0.7276126153 0.7222222222
103.32 8 4.6378309682 0.1254534609 0.8510722424 0.8333333333
111.21 9 4.7114203058 0.0518641233 0.9355073254 0.9444444444
117.13 10 4.7632844291 0 1 1.0555555556
Failure Truncated Analysis C2(M)=
Critical M=
t = (N/l)^(1/b)
Change As N(t) = l*t^b t = (N(t)/l)^(1/
Needed
Datum:
Multiplier: Time Time
Cum Time
If > 1, time between between
Cum Time if if beta=1
is failure if failure if
Failure # beta=0.5 and NOTE: cum time
stretched. beta =1 for beta =1 for
lambda = 0.1 Line goes
If < 1, time lambda = lambda =
thru first
is shrunk 0.1 0.1
data point!
Cum Fa
### 31 96100.0000 100.0000 3100.0000###
### 32 102400.0000 100.0000 3200.0000###
### 33 108900.0000 100.0000 3300.0000###
### 34 115600.0000 100.0000 3400.0000###
### 35 122500.0000 100.0000 3500.0000###
### 36 129600.0000 100.0000 3600.0000###
### 37 136900.0000 100.0000 3700.0000###
### 38 144400.0000 100.0000 3800.0000###
### 39 152100.0000 100.0000 3900.0000###
### 40 1
160000.0000
1 10
100.0000
100
4000.0000###
1000 10000
### 41 168100.0000 100.0000 4100.0000###
### 42 176400.0000 100.0000 4200.0000###
###
###
43
44
184900.0000
193600.0000
100.0000
100.0000
Cum Time
4300.0000###
4400.0000###
### 45 202500.0000 100.0000 4500.0000###
### 46 211600.0000 100.0000 4600.0000###
### 47 220900.0000 100.0000 4700.0000###
### 48 230400.0000 100.0000 4800.0000###
### 49 240100.0000 100.0000 4900.0000###
### 50 250000.0000 100.0000 5000.0000###
### 51 260100.0000 100.0000 5100.0000###
### 52 270400.0000 100.0000 5200.0000###
### 53 280900.0000 100.0000 5300.0000###
### 54 291600.0000 100.0000 5400.0000###
### 55 302500.0000 100.0000 5500.0000###
### 56 313600.0000 100.0000 5600.0000###
### 57 324900.0000 100.0000 5700.0000###
### 58 336400.0000 100.0000 5800.0000###
### 59 348100.0000 100.0000 5900.0000###
### 60 360000.0000 100.0000 6000.0000###
### 61 372100.0000 100.0000 6100.0000###
### 62 384400.0000 100.0000 6200.0000###
### 63 396900.0000 100.0000 6300.0000###
### 64 409600.0000 100.0000 6400.0000###
### 65 422500.0000 100.0000 6500.0000###
### 66 435600.0000 100.0000 6600.0000###
### 67 448900.0000 100.0000 6700.0000###
### 68 462400.0000 100.0000 6800.0000###
### 69 476100.0000 100.0000 6900.0000###
### 70 490000.0000 100.0000 7000.0000###
### 71 504100.0000 100.0000 7100.0000###
### 72 518400.0000 100.0000 7200.0000###
### 73 532900.0000 100.0000 7300.0000###
### 74 547600.0000 100.0000 7400.0000###
### 75 562500.0000 100.0000 7500.0000###
### 76 577600.0000 100.0000 7600.0000###
### 77 592900.0000 100.0000 7700.0000###
### 78 608400.0000 100.0000 7800.0000###
### 79 624100.0000 100.0000 7900.0000###
### 80 640000.0000 100.0000 8000.0000###
### 81 656100.0000 100.0000 8100.0000###
### 82 672400.0000 100.0000 8200.0000###
### 83 688900.0000 100.0000 8300.0000###
### 84 705600.0000 100.0000 8400.0000###
### 85 722500.0000 100.0000 8500.0000###
### 86 739600.0000 100.0000 8600.0000###
### 87 756900.0000 100.0000 8700.0000###
### 88 774400.0000 100.0000 8800.0000###
### 89 792100.0000 100.0000 8900.0000###
### 90 810000.0000 100.0000 9000.0000###
### 91 828100.0000 100.0000 9100.0000###
### 92 846400.0000 100.0000 9200.0000###
### 93 864900.0000 100.0000 9300.0000###
### 94 883600.0000 100.0000 9400.0000###
### 95 902500.0000 100.0000 9500.0000###
### 96 921600.0000 100.0000 9600.0000###
### 97 940900.0000 100.0000 9700.0000###
### 98 960400.0000 100.0000 9800.0000###
### 99 980100.0000 100.0000 9900.0000###
### 100 1000000.0000 100.0000 10000.0000###
/l)^(1/b)
Results Same As For WinSMITH Visual
Beta & Lambda For Crow/AMSAA
Beta Lambda R^2
Rank regression--> 0.523625665 0.08684721 0.975355226
MLE-MIL-HDBK-189--> 0.518078386 0.08968906
MLE-IEC 1164--> 0.507716818 0.10320118
Random Time Simulation X-Data Calculated Values
One-
One-
column
column
plot data
Random plot data
Sort for WSV
Simulation One-column for WSV
Column M with
Cum Time plot data for with
cum time for precise RR MLE-189
Compressed WSV with precise
monotonic data for
or Stretched random data data for
increase beta=0.5
For Beta =0.5 beta=1
and
and thru
lamda=0.
first point
1
478.0228 6 478.0228 478.022841 478.0228*1 100*1 0*1 106.34642 105.05884
7 1657.359408 1657.35941 1657.3594*2 400*2 0*2 399.5934 400.39039
7 1685.606689 1685.60669 1685.6067*3 900*3 0*3 866.78336 875.74311
7 1709.024986 1709.02499 1709.025*4 1600*4 0*4 1501.4598 1525.9303
8 2004.129886 2004.12989 2004.1299*5 2500*5 0*5 2299.2633 2347.4231
8 3263.421648 3263.42165 3263.4216*6 3600*6 0*6 3256.9117 3337.5501
8 3603.015616 3603.01562 3603.0156*7 4900*7 0*7 4371.7807 4494.1663
8 3852.730923 3852.73092 3852.7309*8 6400*8 0*8 5641.689 5815.4827
A Plot-NIST Method 8
8
3927.766155
4566.011225
3927.76616 3927.7662*9 8100*9
4566.01123 4566.0112*10 10000*10
0*9
0*10
7064.7736
8639.4109
7299.9666
8946.2788
9 5824.438911 5824.43891 5824.4389*11 12100*11 0*11 10364.164 10753.232
9 7871.976074 7871.97607 7871.9761*12 14400*12 0*12 12237.745 12719.758
9 9621.639846 9621.63985 9621.6398*13 16900*13 0*13 14258.989 14844.891
To 9
9
10086.49717
11748.74657
10086.497210086.4972*14 19600*14
11748.746611748.7466*15 22500*15
0*14
0*15
16426.831
18740.294
17127.746
19567.508
9 12478.48897 12478.489 12478.489*16 25600*16 0*16 21198.472 22163.423
### 17617.47164 17617.471617617.4716*17 28900*17 0*17 23800.526 24914.789
### 20927.75045 20927.750420927.7504*18 32400*18 0*18 26545.668 27820.949
### 31212.46381 31212.463831212.4638*19 36100*19 0*19 29433.164 30881.286
### 39438.28187 39438.281939438.2819*20 40000*20 0*20 32462.319 34095.22
### 42914.37238 42914.372442914.3724*21 44100*21 0*21 35632.48 37462.201
### 43152.59586 43152.595943152.5959*22 48400*22 0*22 38943.026 40981.708
### 44862.72736 44862.727444862.7274*23 52900*23 0*23 42393.369 44653.249
### 47878.94393 47878.943947878.9439*24 57600*24 0*24 45982.949 48476.35
### 48097.70706 48097.707148097.7071*25 62500*25 0*25 49711.233 52450.563
### 48258.99525 48258.995248258.9952*26 67600*26 0*26 53577.71 56575.457
### 53526.3216 53526.321653526.3216*27 72900*27 0*27 57581.891 60850.621
### 56641.61189 56641.611956641.6119*28 78400*28 0*28 61723.31 65275.659
### 61774.41905 61774.419 61774.419*29 84100*29 0*29 66001.515 69850.191
### 67068.68863 67068.688667068.6886*30 90000*30 0*30 70416.074 74573.851
### 74900.00209 74900.002174900.0021*31 96100*31 0*31 74966.571 79446.288
### 78882.03132 78882.031378882.0313*32102400*32 0*32 79652.604 84467.16
### 82133.67737 82133.677482133.6774*33108900*33 0*33 84473.785 89636.139
### 84701.98033 84701.980384701.9803*34115600*34 0*34 89429.739 94952.908
### 85793.9373 85793.937385793.9373*35122500*35 0*35 94520.104 100417.16
### 92474.20385 92474.203992474.2039*36129600*36 0*36 99744.529 106028.59
### 93182.31634 93182.316393182.3163*37136900*37 0*37 105102.67 111786.92
### 93429.80658 93429.806693429.8066*38144400*38 0*38 110594.2 117691.86
### 117685.5082 117685.508117685.5082*39152100*39 0*39 116218.81 123743.15
### 118936.4857 118936.486118936.4857*40160000*40 0*40 121976.16 129940.51
0 10000
### 100000
121212.8722 1000000
121212.872121212.8722*41168100*41 10000000
0*41 127866 136283.68
### 127767.4921 127767.492127767.4921*42176400*42 0*42 133887.94 142772.43
Cum Time ###
###
130043.3298 130043.33130043.3298*43184900*43
139338.5536 139338.554139338.5536*44193600*44
0*43
0*44
140041.78
146327.22
149406.5
156185.65
### 152770.0818 152770.082152770.0818*45202500*45 0*45 152744 163109.65
### 155992.655 155992.655155992.655*46211600*46 0*46 159291.77 170178.28
### 164201.2684 164201.268164201.2684*47220900*47 0*47 165970.37 177391.31
### 166004.828 166004.828166004.828*48230400*48 0*48 172779.51 184748.52
### 175196.4367 175196.437175196.4367*49240100*49 0*49 179718.94 192249.71
### 187342.7649 187342.765187342.7649*50250000*50 0*50 186788.42 199894.67
### 202948.5072 202948.507202948.5072*51260100*51 0*51 193987.71 207683.19
### 208722.51 208722.51 208722.51*52 270400*52 0*52 201316.59 215615.08
### 227300.281 227300.281227300.281*53280900*53 0*53 208774.82 223690.14
### 234017.3877 234017.388234017.3877*54291600*54 0*54 216362.18 231908.18
### 234695.6237 234695.624234695.6237*55302500*55 0*55 224078.45 240269
### 235433.5608 235433.561235433.5608*56313600*56 0*56 231923.43 248772.47
### 240269.5431 240269.543240269.5431*57324900*57 0*57 239896.9 257418.36
### 261959.2204 261959.22261959.2204*58336400*58 0*58 247998.65 266206.5
### 266121.3649 266121.365266121.3649*59348100*59 0*59 256228.49 275136.73
### 274311.1531 274311.153274311.1531*60360000*60 0*60 264586.22 284208.87
### 274724.8106 274724.811274724.8106*61372100*61 0*61 273071.65 293422.77
### 282981.9279 282981.928282981.9279*62384400*62 0*62 281684.57 302778.25
### 339543.2722 339543.272339543.2722*63396900*63 0*63 290424.82 312275.15
### 345002.6153 345002.615345002.6153*64409600*64 0*64 299292.2 321913.32
### 347770.7509 347770.751347770.7509*65422500*65 0*65 308286.53 331692.61
### 347911.7642 347911.764347911.7642*66435600*66 0*66 317407.64 341612.85
### 348474.2179 348474.218348474.2179*67448900*67 0*67 326655.35 351673.91
### 352792.1431 352792.143352792.1431*68462400*68 0*68 336029.48 361875.62
### 360556.3483 360556.348360556.3483*69476100*69 0*69 345529.88 372217.86
### 368364.0923 368364.092368364.0923*70490000*70 0*70 355156.37 382700.46
### 377886.9021 377886.902377886.9021*71504100*71 0*71 364908.79 393323.3
### 386329.8659 386329.866386329.8659*72518400*72 0*72 374787 404086.23
### 394804.2848 394804.285394804.2848*73532900*73 0*73 384790.79 414989.12
### 414579.7998 414579.8414579.7998*74547600*74 0*74 394920 426031.83
### 415231.3563 415231.356415231.3563*75562500*75 0*75 405174.6 437214.24
### 424977.8225 424977.823424977.8225*76577600*76 0*76 415554.31 448536.2
### 429709.14 429709.14 429709.14*77 592900*77 0*77 426059 459997.59
### 451782.1335 451782.134451782.1335*78608400*78 0*78 436688.57 471598.28
### 455453.3319 455453.332455453.3319*79624100*79 0*79 447442.83 483338.15
### 477562.7677 477562.768477562.7677*80640000*80 0*80 458321.66 495217.08
### 478901.8022 478901.802478901.8022*81656100*81 0*81 469324.91 507234.93
### 481870.3346 481870.335481870.3346*82672400*82 0*82 480452.44 519391.6
### 484754.1482 484754.148484754.1482*83688900*83 0*83 491704.12 531687
### 490709.3963 490709.396490709.3963*84705600*84 0*84 503079.81 544120.9
### 502915.4494 502915.449502915.4494*85722500*85 0*85 514579.37 556693.29
### 522999.6094 522999.609522999.6094*86739600*86 0*86 526202.67 569404
### 549428.6893 549428.689549428.6893*87756900*87 0*87 537949.59 582253
### 550986.5297 550986.53550986.5297*88774400*88 0*88 549820 595240.1
### 557723.3082 557723.308557723.3082*89792100*89 0*89 561813.75 608365.2
### 584512.9639 584512.964584512.9639*90810000*90 0*90 573930.74 621628.21
### 600531.9097 600531.91600531.9097*91828100*91 0*91 586170.84 635029
### 630420.1423 630420.142630420.1423*92846400*92 0*92 598533.92 648567.5
### 638917.5582 638917.558638917.5582*93864900*93 0*93 611019.86 662243.57
### 709608.2929 709608.293709608.2929*94883600*94 0*94 623628.55 676057.12
### 720068.8593 720068.859720068.8593*95902500*95 0*95 636359.86 690008.05
### 722884.7999 722884.8722884.7999*96921600*96 0*96 649213.67 704096.25
### 738701.398 738701.398738701.398*97940900*97 0*97 662189.88 718321.63
### 750527.1584 750527.158750527.1584*98960400*98 0*98 675288.37 732684.09
### 761532.5671 761532.567761532.5671*99980100*99 0*99 688509 747183.52
### 761819.8314 761819.831
761819.8314*100
1000000*100 0*100 701851.72 761819.83
lculated Values
MLE-IEC-
1164
87.629132
343.20828
762.75916
1344.2096
2086.1289
2987.4227
4047.205
5264.7318
6639.3621
8170.5331
9857.7433
11700.54
13698.513
15851.284
18158.504
20619.85
23235.018
26003.727
28925.709
32000.712
35228.498
38608.84
42141.522
45826.34
49663.095
53651.6
57791.674
62083.143
66525.839
71119.601
75864.275
80759.708
85805.756
91002.279
96349.139
101846.2
107493.34
113290.44
119237.36
125334
131580.23
137975.94
144521
151215.39
158058.91
165051.5
172193
179483.45
186922.63
194510.49
202246.93
210131.87
218165.22
226346.88
234676.79
243154.85
251781
260555.12
269477.16
278547
287764.7
297130
306643
316303.49
326111.47
336066.85
346169.56
356419.55
366816.73
377361.06
388052.46
398890.86
409876.22
421008.46
432287.53
443713.36
455285.89
467005.08
478870.85
490883.16
503041.94
515347.15
527798.72
540396.61
553140.75
566031.11
579067.62
592250.23
605578.9
619053.57
632674.2
646440.73
660353.11
674411.31
688615.26
702964.93
717460.27
732101.23
746887.76
761819.83
Change As N(t) = l*tb t = (N(t)/l)^(1/b)
Needed
One-column
plot data for
WSV with Rank MLE-IEC-
MLE-189
precise data Regression 1164
for beta=1 and
thru first point