Causal Modelling

Reading: Ch 1-3 of Morton, J. (2004)

Understanding Developmental Disorders: A
Causal Modelling Approach. Blackwell
Publishing
(Copies available on closed reserve)

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 Learning Objectives
Students should gain an understanding of:
– why it is necessary to have theories of
development
– what is meant by ‘cause’
– both the importance and complexity of
establishing cause
– causal modelling approach

Students should be able to:

– provide a causal modelling analysis of any
specific developmental disorder

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 Development
Unfolding of a particular pattern, as a result of
variation in genes and variation in the
environment

Waddington (1940); reproduced in Slack (2002)

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Development

Waddington (1940); reproduced in Slack (2002)

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 Developmental theories

“Child psychology today is surprisingly free of

interest in building models of general
development. The discipline is filled with
hyperactive attempts to accumulate data, but
attempts to make sense of the data, in terms of
models of basic developmental processes, are
relatively rare.” (Valsiner, 1998, p.189)

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 Theories
• Theories map explanatory concepts onto
observations of phenomena to be explained
through the use of bridging principles

• Development of STM capacity

– STM capacity increases during childhood
– rehearsal rate, phonological store
– memory span depends on rehearsal rate
– rehearsal rate increases with age

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 Theories
• Theories tell us how to select, organize and
interpret observations. They provide economical
summaries of observations.

“Science is built up of facts, as a house is built

of stones; but accumulation of facts is no
more science than a heap of stones is a
house.” (Jules Henri Poincare, 1952)

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 Theories
• Theories provide explanations of behaviour, and
explanations are necessary if we wish to predict
the behaviour of different individuals in different
contexts at different times

• Guide research
– empirical statements must be tested
– stimulate new observations

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 Theories
• Evaluating theories
– Falsifiable
– Empirically sound
– Internally consistent
– It should be parsimonious
– It should integrate previous research

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 Developmental Theories
• Issues specific to developmental theories

– What is it that develops?

– How do nature and nurture contribute to
development?
– Is the basis of developmental change
qualitative or quantitative?

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Headline: “Working mums blamed for
children’s failures”

Full time working Low achievement

mother child

Even if this could be established as a “causal”

relation, intervention requires understanding the
mechanisms

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 Other plausible models

Child’s Child’s
Working Working
state state
mother mother
of mind of mind

Low achievement
child Low achievement
child

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 Plausible models become complex

No talk
Working Working of
mother Child’s mother school
state
of mind

Child no
Mother Low achievement interest
Mother
unavailable child in school
unavailable

Low achievement
child

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 Causal Modelling
• Establishing cause is a complex issue
• Vast number of factors that may contribute to
the effect
• Must define the problem properly
• Need a framework within which underlying
ideas about cause can be expressed
• Must distinguish causal relationships from
contingent ones (i.e. does being male cause
delinquency?)

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 Causal Modelling
• Morton & Frith (1995)
– Developed a framework within which causal
models could be expressed
– The framework is theory neutral
– Allows the comparison of alternative theories
about developmental psychology

• Causal modelling is a tool

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Causal Modelling

Biology

Cognition

Behaviour

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 Causal Modelling
• The jump between gene and behaviour is too big
– identifying genetic basis doesn’t really explain
behaviour (almost everything is heritable)
– probability of outcome given the gene is low

• Cognition is an essential part of any theory of

development
• Cognitive factors mediate between biology and
behaviour

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 Causal Modelling
• Key points
– Distinguishes between various levels of
discourse
• biology, cognition, behaviour
– Allows both genetic and environmental factors
– Distinguishes between descriptive models
and causal models

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 Ground Rules of Causal
Modelling
1. Start with biology

2. Build causal chains

3. Give a full account

4. Specific over general

5. Distinguish cognitive from behaviour

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 Ground Rules of Causal
Modelling
6. Be cognitively economical

7. Correlation is not causation

8. Avoid circularity

9. There is no single cause of anything

10. Nothing is determined

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 Autism
• Some have outstanding drawing/memory
• Lower IQ
• Slow to learn language
• Theory of mind or executive deficit?
• Socially strange
• No imagination
• Good at hidden figures/proof reading
• Genetic link (i.e. co-occurence in twins)
• Occurs more in boys than girls
• Early onset

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 Autism
•Twins biological
•More boys than girls

•Theory of mind/EF cognitive

•No imagination

•Good drawing behavioural

•Socially strange
•Low IQ

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 Autism

•Twins biological
virus? •More boys than girls

faulty cognitive
•Theory of mind/EF
attachment? •No imagination

•Good drawing behavioural

•Socially strange
•Low IQ

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Autism

genetic factor

brain
abnormality

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 Autism

genetic factor

brain
virus
abnormality

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 Autism

genetic factor

brain brain
virus
abnormality 1 abnormality 2

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 Autism

cognitive
cause

lack of lack of
ToM imagination

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 Autism

cognitive
cause

lack of lack of
ToM imagination

socially
strange
behaviour

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 Autism
genetic
difference biological

brain brain
difference difference

ToM lack of low general cognitive

deficit imagination ability

social convention function of

not learned language
not learned

socially strange delay in no pretend low behavioural

behaviour language play IQ

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 Causal Modelling
• Representing causal relationships
– help sort out thoughts, distinguish facts and
theories
– separate biological, cognitive and
behavioural elements
– a productive way of viewing and comparing
theories

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 Summary
• Developmental theories
– necessary to organise facts & generate
predictions
– characteristics of a developmental theory
• Nature of ‘cause’
• Causal modelling approach
– biology, cognitive, behavioural
• Example: Autism

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