Press conference for the

official release of the

World Oil Outlook 2010

Vienna, 4 November 2010

www.opec.org
p g

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Outline

• Reference case ass

assumptions
mptions
• Medium- and long-term
g oil demand and
supply outlook
• Major uncertainties
• Downstream issues
• Implications for CO2 emissions
• Main
M i messages

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 Key Reference Case assumptions

• Swifter recovery from global recession than thought in

the previous World Oil Outlook – but remains fragile

• Robust average global economic growth of 3.7% p.a.

over the next decade, averages 3.5% 2010-2030

• Oil price assumption based upon estimated cost of

the marginal barrel – but it is only an assumption

• Major energy policies that have been passed into law

are incorporated, otherwise only a continuation of
past trends is assumed

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Energy use will continue to rise – but
energy
gy poverty
y will remain a major
j issue

World energy supply by

fuel type in the
Reference Case:
oil remains key

Energy use per capita in

d
developing
l i countries
t i stays
t
well below OECD levels

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World oil demand outlook in the
Reference Case (mb/d)
2010 2014 2020 2030
OECD 45.4 45.3 44.7 43.1
Developing countries 35.4 39.6 46.3 56.8
Transition economies 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.6

World 85.5 89.9 96.2 105.5

• Assumed rapid recovery means oil demand levels of
2007 are reached again by 2011
• In 2014, demand reaches almost 90 mb/d, close to 1
mb/d higher than in the previous outlook
• Byy 2030, oil demand is 20 mb/d higher
g than today
y
• OECD demand falls throughout the period to 2030
• Transportation
T t ti sector
t isi key
k tot oilil d
demand
d growth
th
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World oil supply outlook in the
Reference Case (mb/d)
2010 2014 2020 2030
Non-OPEC 51.9 53.3 55.7 57.5

OPEC NGLs 4.7 5.9 7.2 8.9

OPEC crude 29.3 30.6 33.2 38.7

• Over medium-term,
medium term non
non-OPEC
OPEC supply continues to rise

• Slow rise in the demand for OPEC crude to 2014

• Long-term: wide diversity of sources

• By 2030, around 39 mb/d of OPEC crude is needed in the
Reference Case, a similar share of global supply to today

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Medium-term supply outlook:
healthy levels of OPEC spare capacity

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Oil demand is subject to many uncertainties

• Oil demand subject

j to many
y uncertainties: the economy,
y,
policies, technology
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Demand uncertainty translates into a wide
range of OPEC upstream investment needs

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 Refining overcapacity will remain in the
medium-term
Additional cumulative refinery crude runs
Required and potential*

* Potential: based on expected distillation capacity expansion

Required: based on projected demand increases

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A regional shift in downstream is emerging

Crude distillation capacity requirements by period

2010–2030

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 CO2 emissions: the historical
responsibility
p y of developed
p countries
Per capita CO2 emissions

Per capita emissions from

Annex I countries remain well
above the rest of the world…

Cumulative CO2 emissions since 1900

…and
and cumulative emissions
from Annex I countries will
continue to be far higher
g than
non-Annex I countries
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 OPEC WOO 2010: Main messages (1)

• Oil will remain the leading source in satisfying

growing energy needs,
needs but its share will decline
• Resource base is sufficient and future supply will
come from a wide range of sources
• Assumed economic recoveryy means oil demand
levels of 2007 are reached again by 2011
• OPEC is investing: spare capacity is already at
comfortable levels
• A future
f t reshaping
h i off the
th downstream
d t is
i expected,
t d
with an increasing focus on the Pacific basin

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 OPEC WOO 2010: Main messages (2)

• There remain huge uncertainties

• Economic
E i recovery underway
d – but
b t risks
i k are skewed
k d
towards the downside
• Many environmental
M i t l and
d energy-related
l t d policies
li i offer
ff
an unclear picture of their impact on future oil demand
• By 2030,
B 2030 demand uncertainties
ncertainties sho
show a difference of
20 mb/d between higher and lower growth scenarios
• Over the next decade,
decade the difference for OPEC
upstream investment needs between high and low
growth cases reaches $230 billion in real terms
• In climate change negotiations, historical
responsibility remains the key guiding principle

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Thank you

www.opec.org
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