Professional Documents
Culture Documents
The map on the following page shows the location of the data in relation to the
subject property. Individual data sheets for each transaction appear on the
succeeding pages, followed by an analysis of the data and value estimate for the
subject individual homes.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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VALUATION – BULK VALUE “AS IS” Exhibit B - Part 4 Page 2 of 43 59
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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DISTEFANO COMPANY
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DISTEFANO COMPANY
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DISTEFANO COMPANY
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DISTEFANO COMPANY
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DISTEFANO COMPANY
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DISTEFANO COMPANY
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DISTEFANO COMPANY
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DISTEFANO COMPANY
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Data 1 is a small infill subdivision clearly less attractive than the subject Trails
and Sands units. The data has smaller lots, less-attractive facades, and lacks the
overall master-planned appeal of the subject property indicating higher prices
per sq ft for the subject Trails and Sands units.
Data 2 is three new infill houses built on a former single-family lot. The houses
share a common driveway and lack the street presence and distinctive design
of the subject property indicating higher prices per sq ft for the subject Trails
and Sands units.
Data 3 is a small infill subdivision built by the same builder at Data 1. The data
has less-attractive facades and lacks the appeal of the subject property
indicating higher prices per sq ft for the subject Trails and Sands units.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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Each comparable data is compared and contrasted with the subject units to
arrive at a value indication by sales comparison. The price per sq ft is the unit of
comparison employed by developers in pricing new houses for sale.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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conditions of sale. Data 10 are base prices for the initial phases of a large
subdivision, where the developer would be expected to price the units to
generate early excitement. Sales agents indicate that later phases will have price
increases. The data is adjusted upward by 3%.
market conditions. All of the data represent relatively recent current prices
and are not adjusted.
location. Data 1, 2, and 3, and 10 are all farther from the coast and lack the
beach proximity of the subject property and are adjusted upward by 5% to 10%.
Data 6 is in a more prestigious location and is adjusted downward by 10%.
appeal. Data 1, 2, 3, 10, and 11 are all denser projects, some with common
drives, and lack the distinctive exteriors of the subject units and are adjusted
upward by 5%.
bedrooms-baths. The data all have similar bedrooms and baths and are not
adjusted.
garages. The data all have two-car garages and are not adjusted.
unit size. Data 10 and 11 are larger than the subject Trails and Sands units
and are adjusted upward by 5% (smaller units tend to sell for higher prices per
sq ft because the core plumbing and mechanical costs are spread over a smaller
area).
upgrades. The prices for Data 10 are base prices without any upgrades or lot
premiums. The data is adjusted upward by 5%.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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lot size. Data 1, 10, and 11 have smaller lots and are adjusted upward by 5%.
After adjustments the data range from $449.75 to $567.08 per sq ft. The
subject Trails and Sands units are all priced within the range of the adjusted
comparable data and appear to be priced at market.
Data 4 and 5 are luxury subdivisions in a more prestigious location at the top
of the market in Orange County. The unit sizes are larger, indicating higher
prices per sq ft for the subject units, although otherwise these data are clearly
superior to the subject location indicating lower prices per sq ft for the subject
Cliffs and Breakers units. Data 4 also provides useful information for
comparing view premiums.
Data 7 is a new infill house in Huntington Beach in the size range of the
subject units. The data is a little closer to the beach but lacks the presence of
the subject subdivision indicating overall higher prices per sq ft for the subject
Cliffs and Breakers units.
Data 8 is a new infill house in Huntington Beach in the size range of the
subject units. The data lacks the presence of the subject subdivision but is
otherwise similar indicating overall higher prices per sq ft for the subject Cliffs
and Breakers units.
Data 9 is a new infill house two blocks from the beach with views in a
somewhat more prestigious location indicating lower prices per sq ft for the
subject Cliffs and Breakers units.
Data 12 is a new infill house somewhat closer to the coast with views in a more
prestigious location indicating lower prices per sq ft for the subject Cliffs and
Breakers units.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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location. Data 4 and 5 are in a more prestigious location and are adjusted
downward by 15%. Data 8 is farther from the coast and is adjusted upward by
5%. Data 9 and 12 are within walking distance of the coast in more upscale
areas and are adjusted downward by 20%.
appeal. The subject property has the appeal of a large planned subdivision
backed by a large developer. Data 7 and 8 lack that appeal and are adjusted
upward by 2%.
bedrooms-baths. The data all have similar bedrooms and baths and are not
adjusted.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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garages. Data 5 has three- and four-car garages and is adjusted downward by
2%.
unit sizes. Smaller units generally sell for higher prices per sq ft than larger
units. Data 4, 5, and 12 are larger than the subject units and are adjusted
upward by 2%.
lot sizes. Data 4 has larger lots and is adjusted downward by 2%. Data 7 and
9 have smaller lots and are adjusted upward by 2%. Data 12 has a large lot
although a portion is unusable in a canyon and is not adjusted.
After adjustments the non-view data range from $506.92 to $515.87 per sq ft.
The view data range from $828.88 to $956.67 per sq ft. The subject Cliffs and
Breakers units are all priced within or below the range of the comparable data
and appear to be at market.
View Premiums
View premiums depend on the quality of the view, distance, obstructions, and
permanence. The comparable data indicate ocean view premiums of
approximately 60% to 80% of value. The Crystal Cove views (Data 4 and 5)
are more elevated and uniformly panoramic compared with the subject
property, and the Manhattan Beach view (Data 9) is closer to the coast.
The subject views are permanent and unobstructed by rooftops, although
the wetlands are not yet fully restored. Generally the Breakers lots have better
views compared with the Cliffs lots. The subject view premiums average about
$977,000 (about 57% of underlying value) depending on the quality of the
view, and are supported by actual sales. Overall the subject view premiums
appear reasonable.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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estimated values per sq ft (large dots) as of the effective date of the appraisal
(February 1, 2010).
$950.00
$350.00
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
As indicated in the preceding chart, Trails and Sands units were the first to come
on stream just as the market was beginning its decline (the subprime crash started
in September 2007) and started closing in late 2007. Cliffs and Breakers units
started closing in mid-2008. Sales have continued despite the adverse market
conditions.
Since January 2009 prices have ranged from approximately $450 to $550 per sq
ft with a few outliers. Price variations reflect lot sizes and upgrades. Ocean-view
units have been selling with substantial view premiums as indicated in the
preceding chart.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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Base prices were reduced after an initial flurry of sales in late 2007-early 2008.
Price reductions have ranged from about 15% to 21% for the Trails and Sands
units, and about 12% to 17% for the Cliffs and Breakers units, which started
marketing later than the Trails and Sands. The following table shows the base
price reductions.
As indicated in the preceding chart, the initial pricing for the Trails and Sands
units reflected market conditions before the bubble began collapsing in fall 2007.
As the market declined, base prices were reduced. By the time the Cliffs and
Breakers units came on stream, the initial pricing reflected the market decline, so
prices have been reduced less dramatically for the Cliffs and Breakers units. Base
prices for the Trails and Sands units have not changed since May 2009. Base prices
for the Cliffs and Breakers units were adjusted downward in January 2010, partly
in response to slower demand caused by the bankruptcy. Now that the availability
of jumbo loans is improving, further reductions will likely be unnecessary.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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Number
of Sales- Price/Sq Ft
Escrows Minimum Maximum
Trails 21 $466.93 $527.76
Sands 7 $462.78 $533.37
Cliffs no view 5 $429.22 $509.50
Breakers no view 3 $463.20 $475.61
Cliffs view 3 $632.73 $680.42
Breakers view 3 $770.74 $863.36
Total 42
Cliffs and Breakers no view $506.92 $515.87 $429.22 $509.50 $436.05 $488.18
Cliffs and Breakers view $828.88 $956.67 $632.73 $863.36 $661.00 $796.79
The Brightwater actual prices are within (or below) the range of the
comparable data off Brightwater, so it can be concluded that the Brightwater
units are reasonably priced. The unit list in Appendix D shows the estimated
retail prices for each unsold unit. The aggregate retail values are summarized
as follows:
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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On the basis of the comparable data and the Brightwater closed sales and current
escrows, I estimate the retail values of the subject unsold units as follows:
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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On the basis of the comparable data and the Brightwater closed sales, the
contract price is accepted as the market value of the units in escrow, as follows:
Note that the preceding value estimates assume no future trending in prices
for the unsold units.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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The discounted cash flow analysis considers only the revenue and expense that
a bulk buyer would anticipate after a bulk purchase of the subject property on
the effective date of the appraisal.
Forecast Revenue
Forecast unit sales revenue is based on the current retail values as estimated in
the preceding section of this report under three absorption and appreciation
scenarios (see page 82). Additional revenue consists of deferred payments and
profit sharing under the model sale agreement (see page 9).
off-site improvement. This item covers the remaining costs for salaries,
temporary utilities, fencing, security, and engineering within the project.
on-site improvement. This item covers the remaining costs for street
improvements and related items.
common areas. This item covers the remaining costs for walls and
landscaping.
direct construction. This item covers the costs for building the individual
houses.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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model upgrade. This item covers the cost to convert the models to
residences.
property tax. This item covers the owner’s property taxes before units are
sold to individual buyers.
fees-building permits. This item covers the remaining fees and permits
payable as construction is started on the individual units.
fees-final map. This item covers the remaining fees payable as construction
is started on the individual units.
city annexation fees. This item covers the fees payable as construction is
started on each individual unit.
customer service. This item covers the punch list and first-year warranty costs.
entitlement costs. This item covers the remaining costs for archeological
studies required by the coastal development permit.
accounts payable float. This item covers an adjustment for invoiced items
that have not been paid.
insurance. This item covers property and liability insurance for the project.
warranty expense. This item covers a reserve for future costs primarily after
project sellout for claims against the 10-year construction defects warranty.
management. This item covers developer’s overhead for salaries and benefits,
general and administrative and related costs.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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model rent. This item covers the rent payable to the owner of the models per
the model lease agreement (page 9).
Increase in
Median
Year Price
2010 0.1%
2011 1.8%
2012 4.0%
2013 6.5%
2014 8.0%
2015 9.8%
2016 13.0%
2017 17.3%
In a study for the subject property, real estate economist Walter Hahn, PhD
forecasts the following appreciation for the subject property:
Increase in
Median
Year Price
2010 3.0%
2011 6.0%
2012 10.0%
2013 12.0%
2014 14.0%
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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sales rate. The future sales rate is also difficult to forecast. The actual sales
rate at the subject property is as follows:
The sales rates reflect the recessionary market and the bankruptcy filing in
October 2009. Brightwater sales rates are on par with other active projects in
Orange County.
A report prepared by MarketPointe (Appendix C) lists all the new home
subdivisions currently offering single-family detached units for sale at prices
above $600,000 in Orange County (36 total projects). The cumulative average
sales rates over the life of the projects ranges from 0.35 to 2.86 units per
month, with an average per project of 1.34 units per month. The sales rate at
the subject property (2.1 units per month) indicates that it is capturing more
than its fair share of sales.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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The MarketPointe report indicates that 105 units were sold in the fourth
quarter 2009. Standing unsold inventory was 141 units, less than four months
supply.
Usual subdivision sales rates under more normal market conditions range
from about 3 to 5 units per month (sometimes higher) depending on the
appeal and market acceptance of the product. The subject project is really at
least four separate subdivisions. Thus in a more normal market, the overall
Brightwater sales rate might be expected to approach 12 to 20 units per month
at 3 to 5 units per month per subdivision.
As the market recovers, sales rates should increase from the historical 2.1
units per month. For the discounted cash flow analysis, three absorption rate
scenarios are modeled over 4, 5, and 6 years as shown in the model (average
sales rates of 3.7, 4.4, and 5.5 units per month), which appears very reasonable
in view of the historical sales rates and the improving market. In each scenario
the more expensive homes are assumed to absorb at a slower rate than the less
expensive homes. The sales rate scenarios are as follows:
Discount Rate
The discount rate (also called the internal rate of return) is a yield rate
expressed as the annualized compound rate of return on an investment.
Discount rates range from near zero for short-term U.S. Treasury obligations
(considered nearly risk-free) to upwards of 30%-40% for highly speculative
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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investments depending on the perceived risk and term of the investment, with
longer term investments typically having higher yields.
The development of the discount rate for this appraisal relies on three
sources: (1) the PriceWaterhouseCoopers Korpacz Real Estate Investor Survey,
(2) the discount rate for the Brightwater model purchase and sale agreement,
(3) my analysis of the risk for the subject property.
The following chart shows the trend in investor yield requirements for various
product types.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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12.5%
11.5%
10.5%
9.5%
8.5%
7.5%
Q1 90
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1 93
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1 96
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1 99
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1 02
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1 05
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1 08
Q4
Q3
Source: PriceWaterhouseCoopers Korpacz Real Estate Investor Survey, Florham Park, NJ.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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In considering the Korpacz data, I observe that the revenue to the subject
property is not backed up by a lease, thus the discount rate would be higher
than the 9% to 10% range for leased office, retail, industrial, and apartment
properties. However the subject property is not proposed. Most of the
infrastructure is built, and 63 units are built and sold so that prices and
construction costs are known. The property has a desirable coastal location in
a densely populated metropolitan area. Thus the discount rate would be lower
compared with the 20% average for proposed land developments in varying
locations throughout the country.
discount rate from brightwater model purchase and sale. The buyer
of the Brightwater models is a third-party investor (see page 9). The owner of
the subject property (the seller of the models) indicates that when negotiations
commenced in fourth quarter 2008, the buyer initially sought a 12% internal
rate of return. However as the credit meltdown after the Lehman bankruptcy
became more obvious, the buyer insisted on a higher discount rate to cover
market uncertainty. The buyer’s investment is backed up by a lease.
In considering the model discount rate of 16%, I note that the marketing
risk for the models is essentially the same as for the subject unsold units,
although the model investment is backed up by a lease of the models. I also
note that the investor was willing to accept a 12% discount rate were it not for
the credit freeze in fourth quarter 2008, now largely abated. Thus if the deal
were done in the current recovering market, the discount rate would
presumably be lower than 16%.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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DISTEFANO COMPANY
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The preceding table shows the sensitivity of the present value to the three
appreciation and absorption scenarios. I conclude that the highlighted value
(Appreciation Scenario 2 and Sellout Scenario 2) is the most reasonably
supportable.
Sensitivity Comment
A forecast represents a best estimate, although the actual outcome will vary to
some extent from the forecast since it’s impossible to predict the future. The
sensitivity analysis is intended to provide an indication of the accuracy of the
value estimate and to answer the question “what if?” For this analysis, the
assumed absorption rate and price appreciation rate have the greatest
influence on the present value calculation. Thus these two variables are
modeled under three scenarios each, which results in nine possible
combinations and nine present values as shown in the preceding table. The
scenarios are intended to provide an order of magnitude of the range of
possible present value outcomes. The level of accuracy falls within a range of
about 10% on either side of the value estimate, based on any reasonable
forecast of sales rates and appreciation.
On the basis of the preceding analysis, I estimate the market value (bulk value)
“as is” of the fee simple estate in the subject property, as of the effective date of
the appraisal, February 1, 2010, as follows:
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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Exposure Time
The definition of market value incorporates the assumption that the property
receives a reasonable exposure time in the open market. The market value
estimate contemplates an exposure time of 9 months.
The exposure time estimate takes into consideration the time required to
complete the marketing process, including the following sequential activities:
the owner lists the property for sale with a broker; the broker exposes the
property in the market; one or more potential buyers complete a due diligence
analysis; the actual buyer assembles equity and debt capital for the purchase;
and the sale closes.
CERTIFICATION
1. The statements of fact contained in this report are true and correct.
2. The reported analyses, opinions, and conclusions are limited only by the
reported assumptions and limiting conditions, and are my personal,
impartial, and unbiased professional analyses, opinions, and conclusions.
3. I have no present or prospective interest in the property that is the
subject of this report and no personal interest with respect to the parties
involved.
4. I have no bias with respect to the property that is the subject of this
report or to the parties involved with this assignment.
5. My engagement in this assignment was not contingent upon developing
or reporting predetermined results.
6. My compensation for completing this assignment is not contingent on
the development or reporting of a predetermined value or direction in
value that favors the cause of the client, the amount of the value
estimate, the attainment of a stipulated result, or the occurrence of a
subsequent event directly related to the intended use of this appraisal.
7. My analyses, opinions, and conclusions were developed, and this report
has been prepared, in conformity with the Uniform Standards of
Professional Appraisal Practice of the Appraisal Foundation and the Code
of Professional Ethics and Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice of
the Appraisal Institute.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
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DISTEFANO COMPANY
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Appendix A
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