Out for the Count: A Social Scientist's Analysis of Unemployment Statistics in the UK

Author(s): Paul Gregg

Source: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society), Vol. 157, No. 2
(1994), pp. 253-270
Published by: Blackwell Publishing for the Royal Statistical Society
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2983361
Accessed: 10/10/2010 12:20

Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at
http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless
you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you
may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use.

Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at
http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=black.

Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed
page of such transmission.

JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of
content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms
of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.

Royal Statistical Society and Blackwell Publishing are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and
extend access to Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society).

http://www.jstor.org
J. R. Statist.Soc. A (1994)
157, Part 2, pp. 253-270

Out for the Count: a Social Scientist'sAnalysisof Unemployment

Statisticsin the UK
By PAUL GREGGt
National Instituteof Economic and Social Research,London, UK

[Received September1992. Revised June 1993]

SUMMARY
The validityof UK unemployment statisticswas the focus of intensedebate throughthe
1980s and again in 1992. This mainlyconcernedwhethertheywere open to politically
motivatedmanipulation.To some extentthisargumenthas misseda widerpoint.Frequent
changes of coverage and consistencybetween sources of informationwhich provide
measuresof unemploymenthave led to a paucity of data that are suitable for social
scientificstudywithits impliedcoststo our understanding of unemployment overthelast
15 years.It is hoped thatan increasingrelianceon specificallydesignedsurveytechniques,
ratherthanmeasuresbased on benefitadministration data, will overcomemanyof these
problemsfor the 1990s. The design of the Labour Force Surveyshould take on board
the questions raised by social scientists.In particular,the shortageof available work
shouldbe measuredbythebroaderindicatorsof social distressas wellas theidentification
of excess labour supplyin the labour market.
Keywords: DISCOURAGED WORKERS; STATISTICS; UNEMPLOYMENT

1. INTRODUCTION
For the last decadethe officialmonthly countof the unemployed has beenthe
subjectof seriouscontroversy.Thiscontroversy on theimpactthatthe
has centred
frequent,mostlyminor,changesin coveragehavehad on theheadlinenumberof
unemployed. Thisdebateoverthe'true'measureofthecountorwhatitwouldhave
beenontheoldbasishastendedto obscurewhatforeconomists is perhapsthemore
important issue:thattheclaimantcountis notand neverhas beena measureof
excesslaboursupply.It is rather
a by-productofan administrative
systemofbenefit
assessment andhencevulnerable to changesinthatsystem.Thechangesincoverage
of theclaimantcountoverthelast decadehave onlymadethisdistinction more
obvious.Chargesmadeagainstthecountmethodofestimating unemployment have
concerned allegationsaboutpolitically
inspired
manipulationofthefigures through
numerous changesin coverageduringthe1980s.The supporting evidenceforthese
chargeshas been thatall but one of thesechangeshave been unidirectional-
downwards. Criticshave expresseda viewthatcalculating
unemployment on the
old (pre-1982)coveragewouldresultin a considerablyhighertotalfigure, suchas
that of the Unemployment Unit (UU) index.
Here we argue that such a debate is somewhat fruitlessand that it misses the
damage that has been done to our understanding of unemployment through the

tAddressforcorrespondence:National Instituteof Economic and Social Research,2 Dean TrenchStreet,Smith

Square, London, SWIP 3HE, UK.

? 1994 Royal Statistical Society 0035-9238/94/157253

254 GREGG [Part2,
1980s.We also arguethattheopportunity nowexiststo begintheprocessofmaking
unemployment statistics
beyondsuspicionof politicalmanipulation, as well as
offeringopportunities to setthegroundwork foran improved understandingofthe
natureof unemployment in the 1990s.
For thiswe call foran overhaulof theunemployment as presented
statistics to
thepublic.Two distinct typesof measureof unemployment shouldbe produced.
The firstshouldmeasureexcesslabour supplyas definedby the International
LabourOrganization (ILO) and theOrganization forEconomicCo-operation and
Development (OECD) and derivedfromthenewquarterly LabourForceSurvey
(LFS) (theclaimantcountcan be utilizedto providemonthly firstestimatesfor
this,a practicealreadyundertaken by the OECD and the EuropeanEconomic
Community (EEC)). The secondshouldmeasurethebroadersocialdistress caused
by a shortageof workin thehousehold.Such a measureof widersocialdistress
shouldincludeall peoplein householdsor families, includingchildren,wherean
absenceof workor a shortfall in the desiredamountof workby one or more
members is causinglowhouseholdincome.Thiswouldthenexcludethosefamilies
whereone memberis out of workwhileothershave earnedincomesbut include
all thoserequiring benefits (e.g. non-claimantincomesupport(IS), familycredit,
invalidity
and sickness) to raisetheirincomelevelfromthelowbase causedbylack
of availableworkforone or moremembers.

2. WHAT IS CLAIMANT COUNT?

The current primary sourceforthemeasurement of UK unemployment is the
monthly claimantcount.To appearin the,now largelycomputerized, claimant
countan individualmustnormally be attempting to claimunemployment benefit
(UB), IS or nationalinsurance creditsand qualifyas beingavailableforwork.UB
lastsa yearand is notmeanstested,and theabilityto claimrestson thenumber
and size of nationalinsurancecontributions made duringpreviousemployment.
Benefitsmaybe withheld (forup to 6 months)iftheindividual leftworkvoluntarily
or was sackedforgrossmisconduct.
Those who have not made sufficient contributions, have exceededtheirUB
entitlement periodor are ineligibleforotherreasonsmay be able to claimIS,
formerly knownas supplementary benefit.IS is meanstestedon thejointincome
of a coupleand also on thevalueof savingsor realizablevalueof assets.Married
womenareoftennotentitled to claimIS butwillbe includedinthehusband'sclaim
forUB, IS or family credit.If separatedor divorced, anypayment to the(ex-)wife
of alimonyor maintenance fora childwillbe takenintoaccountin assessingIS
entitlement.Cohabiting mayalso disqualify a womanfrombenefit if sheis outof
work.Menwhosewivesor cohabiteesarein part-time workwillstillbe eligiblefor
reducedbenefits and hencestillappearin thecount.The disabled,long-term sick,
singleparentsand olderworkersmaybe eligibleforotherbenefits whichremove
fromtheclaimantcounteitherimmediately or afterUB runsout. Youthsunder
18 yearsold also haveunusualclaimantcriteriaas theyare no longereligiblefor
anybenefit iftheydo nottakea placeon thenewtwo-year youthtraining scheme
or quitsucha placebeforetheprogramme has beencompleted. Thisis unlessthey
are homelessor satisfyotherrestricted Thereare a significant
criteria. numberof
people who do not receivebenefit but who appear thecount.People still'sign
in
1994] UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS IN UK 255
on' despitenotreceiving benefitnormallyforthereasonsthattheyaretemporarily
in disputeabouteligibility or to maintaintheirnationalinsurancecontributions.
Therefore theabilityto appearin thecountdependson theperson'spastemploy-
menthistory, gender,age and othersourcesof incomeand wealthand propensity
to claim.
The monthly countof thoseclaimingbenefits is carriedout at theUB offices
on thesecondThursdayof each month.Compilation of thedata is carriedout at
thecomputer centresat Readingand Livingstone aftera three-week delayso that
thecountcan allow forlate notification of 'signingoff by claimantsterminating
theirclaims.BeforeMarch 1986 onlya one-weekdelaywas used whichled to
overrecording (see the Employment GazetteforMarch-April1986). The count
identifiesthosewithactiveclaimson a particular dayofthemonth.Inconsistencies
overtimein thismeasurecomefromchangesin thebenefitadministrative system
whichdetermines whowillbe eligibleto be countedas an activeclaimon thatday.
A changein thesystemthenproducesa newtotalfigureand if it is lowerthan
previously itbecomesimpossible totrackthecurrent statusofthosewhowouldhave
beeneligibleon theold basis.
The mainstrengths of thecountincludetheease, speedand cheapnessinvolved
in its collectionand its highlydisaggregated nature.The speedof collectionand
releasemeansthatit is an important economicindicatorwhichreceivesregular
mediaattention. However,it usuallylags behindtheeconomiccycleby around6
months.The highlydisaggregated natureof the claimantcountoffersdetailed
breakdowns ofthesex,age and maritalstatus(thelastforwomenonly).Thecount
also givesa highlyflexiblegeographical disaggregation and evidenceon uncom-
pleteddurations of benefitclaims.Its mainweaknessis thatitis dependent on the
administrative system in placeat anypointin time.Thishas led to severaldiscon-
tinuitiesin theheadlinetotalsince1982.

3. PRODUCING CONSISTENT SERIES

TheGovernment Service(GSS) has laiddowncleardefinitions
Statistical ofwhat
(in theirview)constitutea discontinuity(see Lawlor(1990)). Theseare
(a) changesin the rulesthathave led to a changein the numberof people
includedin themonthly count,without therebeinga changein theirstatus
in thelabourmarket(i.e. theyare stillnot in workor on a government
scheme),
(b) administrativechangesthathave necessitated a changeto themethodof
compiling the figuresand
(c) statistical
changesmadeto improvethequalityof statistics.
The GSS has identifiedeightsignificant since 1979-theseare
discontinuities
detailedin Table 1, of whichthe adjustments in November1981,April 1983,
September 1988and July1989correspond to thefirstof theGSS's categoriesof
changes,thechangesin October1979and October1982to thesecondgroupand
thechangesin July1985and March1986to thethird.The finalcolumnof Table
1 givesthe GSS's estimatesof the size of the adjustment to the claimantcount
producedby thesediscontinuitiesat thetimeof thechange.Theseestimates only
coverpeoplewhoseeligibilityto be in thecountis deemedto have changedand
256 GREGG [Part 2,
TABLE 1
Discontinuitiesin the monthlyregistrantand claimantcountt

Date Source of discontinuity Impact on count

October 1979 Fortnightlyattendanceat UB officesintroduced +20000

November1981 Higher long-termrate of supplementary benefitintroduced; -37000
some men over 60 years old no longerrequiredto sign on
October 1982 Voluntaryregistrationat job centresintroduced:count switched - 190000
to benefitoffices
April 1983 Budget provisionsfor men 60 years old and over-no longer - 162000
requiredto sign on
July1985 Reconciliationof recordsfor NorthernIreland -5000
March 1986 Delayed compilationto reduce overrecording -50000
September1988 New regulationsfor youthsunder 18 years old -90000
July1989 Change in redundantminers'conditions - 15500

tSource, Lawlor (1990), p. 608.

excludesanyonewhosestatusinthelabourmarket is deemedto havechanged.The

totalimpacton thecountis thengreaterifthechangehas inducedpeopleto take
employment or a training place.
Anychangesto thebenefit administrativesystem whichdo notalterthecoverage
of thecountor entitlement to benefitsare not considered as discontinuities.An
examplewouldbe theintroduction ofrestartinterviewsin 1986.Therearealso some
otherchangestothesystem whichwouldbe classified as discontinuitiesbytheGSS's
guidelinesbut are considered in theirimpact.
too insignificant
To takeaccountof themajordiscontinuities, theGSS has developedthe'sea-
sonallyadjustedunemployment consistentwithcurrent coverage(SAUCCC) series'
whichupdatesa back seriesof theclaimantcountto thecurrent coverage.Thisis
a verytime-consuming taskas itrequiresreferenceto monthly recordsbackto 1971
(whentheconsistent seriesstarts)to establishhowmanypeoplehavebeenaffected
by thechangesat anypointin time.Fig. 1 plotstheSAUCCC seriesagainstthe
publishedseriesat each date forthe 1970sand 1980s.
The UU has arguedthatthesecriteriafordiscontinuities are too tightand they
identifya numberof otherchangesto thebenefitsystemwhichhavereducedthe
claimant count(e.g. theabolitionof part-rate UB in 1986or thebarring of school-
leaversfrombenefitforup to 3 monthsfrom1983).Furthermore, theUU identi-
fiessomechangesinthestrictness ofbenefitentitlement criteria
and administration
of the benefitsystemwhichhave had an impacton numbersclaiming.These
includerestartinterviews and the tighteravailabilityfor worktest(see Taylor
(1984,1986)). The differences betweentheUU measureand thecurrent claimant
countwererecently laid out in The Times(1991) (see Table 2). Fig. 2 plotsthe
SAUCCC seriesand theUU indexforthe 1980s.Manyof thechangesare those
identifiedby theGSS, but thepredicted impactis oftenlargerin theUU series.
Thisis mainlybecausetheUU estimates coverthetotalimpacton thecountrather
thanexcluding thosewhoselabourmarketstatushas changed,as is done by the
GSS. It is worthnotingthattheUU includeschangesin theunemployment rate
whichdo notaffecttheheadlinetotal(i.e. changesin thebreadthof coverageof
thedenominator).
1994] UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS IN UK 257

4000T

3500t

3000-

2500-

2000 /

1000-A._

500- 4

71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91

Fig. 1. Comparisonof the Departmentof Employment'sdefinitionof claimantcounton thecurrent

basis (SAUCC series) ( ) and registeredunemployedin thousandsat the date shown (--------)

It is thelargenumberofchangesto coveragethathas beenthesourceofgrowing

scepticism aboutthereliability ofunemployment numbers. The GSS itselfhas been
ridiculed foritspartinthisprocessandina meeting oftheRoyalStatistical Society's
OfficialStatistics StudyGroupin 1991theGSS defended itsrolein thegeneration
of numbers.Theyarguedthat,giventhesourceof thedata, theyhad donetheir
utmost toproduceconsistent andreliablefigures.Theproblem comesfroma source
outsidethecontrolof theGSS- namelytheadministration of thenationalbenefit
system. Hence,although itis possibleto saythattheGSS hasnotbeencompromised
bythisprocess,it is stillpossiblethatthechangesin thebenefitsystem havebeen
designedwithan eye to theirimpacton the headlinetotal of the count.Thus
potentially theofficialclaimantcountseriesremainsopento politicalmanipulation
butnotthrough theactionsof theGSS.
Thedefinition ofthelabourforceusedin calculating unemployment ratesis also
an issue.In 1986,twogroupswereaddedto thedenominator: theself-employed
and thoseon government trainingschemessuch as the youthtrainingscheme
or employment training.The formerchangeappearsfullyjustifiedas the self-
employed do makenationalinsurance contributionsand do movein and outofthe
claimantcount.For thesecondgroupit shouldbe notedthatparticipants in fore-
runners to employment training suchas thecommunity programme, werecounted
as in employment so thediscontinuity is notgreat.Yet, as students are excluded,
thosetraining forbasic subsistence (benefits plus?10 to coverwork-related costs)
appearoddlyoutofplaceinthe'workforce inemployment'. Onefinalissueconcern-
ingthecalculationof ratesoccurswhenwe considergeographically disaggregated
data. Firstthosein theworkforce butwithout a fixedlocationcannotbe allocated
(e.g. thearmedforces).In additionshouldthearea of residence or searchactivity
258 GREGG [Part 2,

4000

3500-.

3000- -/

2500- \ '.- /

2000- \

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91

Fig. 2. Comparisonof theDepartmentof Employment'sdefinitionof claimantcounton thecurrent

basis (SAUCC series) ( ) and the UU index (--------)in thousands

be countedas theymaynotbe thesame?Theappropriate areawilldependon what

aspectof unemployment concentrations
is of interest, of excesslaboursupplyor
benefitdependence.
The mainmotivation behindthegeneration of theUU indexis to highlight the
sizeof thepastadjustments to themostwidelycitedmeasureof unemployment in
theUK. However,theUU indexhas somemajorproblems First,
in itsgeneration.
thosechangesnotincludedas officialdiscontinuities requiretheuse of secondary
information to gaugetheirinitialimpacton the count.Second,thoseno longer
receivingbenefit cannotnormally aftera changehas takenplace.So,
be identified
althoughan estimateof theimpactof a changeat thetimethatit occurredmay
be possible,estimatingthenumber thatwouldstillbe affected someyearslaterrelies
on educatedguess-work. Third,withso manychangesovertheyears,itis difficult
to assesshow theymayhave interacted yearslater,producing anothersourceof
potentialerror.The UU indexis clearlyan imprecise estimate whichwouldbe too
errorproneforpublication by theGSS. Furthermore, as it includesa significant
numberof notionalpeoplein itsderivation, it is impossible to disaggregate.In a
statistical
sensetherefore, theadoptionof historical serieson thecurrent basisis
appropriate. However,thisdebateoverthechoiceof unemployment serieshigh-
lightsa moreworrying aspectabout the count-neitherseriesis a measureof
unemployment in thesensethateconomists use theterm.

4. ALTERNATIVE INFORMATION SOURCES

of theregulartimeseriesdata on unemployment
The limitations haveled to the
use of alternative
sourcesof information intothe
in an attemptto gain insights
1994] UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS IN UK 259
TABLE 2
countingmethodssince 1979t
Changes in unemployment

Change Yearof change alteration

Estimated

Benefitpayments madefortnightlyt 1979 +20000

Downwardadjustment to seasonaltotal -20000
Firstestimateof effect of removing peoplein trainingor 1981 - 195000
temporary work
Seasonalfigures adjustedto offsetthestrikeeffectat the -20000
Department of Healthand Social Security
Unemployed men60 yearsold and olderno longerrequired - 30000
to signont
UB taxed:singleparentsshifted to supplementary benefit 1982 No estimate
Onlybenefit claimants counted: -216000
Part-timejob hunters eliminated No estimate
Men60 yearsold and olderand notentitled to benefitno 1983 - 107000
longerrequired to registerto receivenationalinsurance
creditst
All men60 yearsold and olderallowedlong-term -54000
supplementary benefitt
School-leaversbarredfrombenefit for1-3 months -200000
Community programme ruleschanged 1984 -29000
Northern IrelandDepartment of Healthand Social Security 1985 -5000
recordsreconciled withDepartment of Healthand Social
Securityfiles
UB paid in arrears No estimate
2-weekdelayintroduced intoannouncement of statisticst 1986 -50000
Newmethodof calculating 0o unemployment - 1.407o
Abolitionof part-rate UB - 30000
Voluntary unemployment disqualificationextendedto 13 - 3000
weeks
Restartand availabilityforworkteststoughened -300000
Voluntary unemployment disqualificationextendedto 26 1988 - 12000
weeks
Definitionof part-time worktoughened No estimate
Newdenominator usedto calculateNounemployment No estimate
Youths16 and 17 yearsold barredfrombenefitst -120000
UB contributions teststoughened - 38000
Somepeople55-60yearsold paid pensionsinsteadof -30000
benefits
Ex-miners notrequired to registert 1989 -28000
Claimants required to provethattheyare lookingforwork -25000
Low wagelevelsno longergood reasonforrefusing a job -25000
Tightening of regulationsto requalifyforbenefit -350
Changeto thewaythatearnings affectrightto benefit - 30000

tSource,theUU.
tEmployment Department's fromthechangeincounting
ofthesizeof theeffect
estimate ofunemploy-
methods
mentfiguresgivenin Table 1.

of theunemployed.
characteristics Thesedata sourcesfallintotwotypes-cohorts
and surveys.Therehavebeenperiodiccohortswithin theclaimantcountin thelast
15 years.The thirdis currently beingconstructed. This monitorstheprogression
of all newclaimants in a certainweekforup to a year,eveniftheyhaveleftthe
count.Hence,it providesvaluableinsightsintopropensities to leave the count,
the employment statethatpeople exitinto and the likelihoodof re-entry into
unemployment (see Narendranathan et al. (1985)).
260 GREGG [Part 2,
The mostimportant surveyforinformation on unemployment is theLFS. The
LFS surveys theemployment stateof 60000households in thespringof eachyear.
As it is drawnfromthe wholeof the Britishpopulation,it can assess search
unemployment, searchintensity,previouseconomicstate,occupation as wellas age,
sex,raceand broadregion.The mainproblemabouttheLFS was thatuntil1992
it had been onlypublishedannuallyand forthe yearsbefore1984it was only
biennial.Thereare also variations in thequestionsasked,whichmakea historical
seriesproblematical. Furthermore, itis subjectto theerrorsassociatedwithsample
surveys and therewas a year'sdelaybeforetheresultsbecameavailable.The great
advantageof the surveyapproachis thatit can measureunemployment on an
internationally acceptedbasisand as itis nottheindirectresultofthemachinations
of thebenefitsystemit is freefromany concernsof manipulation.
Othersurveysare also availablewhichprovideusefulinformation suchas the
FamilyExpenditure Surveyand theGeneralHouseholdSurvey.Thesesourcescan
addressissuesofbenefit uptakeandinterrelations betweenindividuals inhouseholds
(see forinstanceDilnotand Kell (1987) and Kell and Wright(1990)). The most
comprehensive surveyis thecensusof populationwhichcoversthewholepopula-
tion.Suchcomprehensive data are usefulin generatingweights to enableaggrega-
tionof othersurveysup to nationallevel.
Most countrieshave both surveyand registrant measuresforunemployment
butin thosewithmonthly surveys (USA, Canada, Australiaand Japan)relatively
littleuseis madeoftheregistrant measure.Amongthosewithlessfrequent surveys
the registrant measuretakes on a greaterrole and is based on registration at
government employment agencies.The UK is theexception, as it usesentitlement
to unemployment-related benefits. This meansthatthegap betweentheadminis-
trativemeasureand thesurveymeasureis muchlargerforwomenin theUK than
in othercountries.So, whereasin mostcountriesthe registrant countis higher
thanthe survey-based searchmeasure,forthe UK thisis not normally so. The
Netherlands is also unusualin thisrespect(see Whiteand Leyland(1992)formore
details).

5. POVERTY OF UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS

Theconceptofunemployment in anymeaningfulsensedoesnotincludeall those
notin work.Keynes(1937)developedtheconceptof 'involuntary unemployment'
to describean economicdefinition of unemployment.In short,thisconceptwas
basedon theideathattheunemployed werethosewhowantedworkat thecurrently
availableratesof pay and who wereunableto securework.Developingstatistics
tomeetsucha conceptis obviously difficult
andthishasproducedan internationally
acceptedmeasureof unemployment throughtheILO and OECD. Thisdefinesas
unemployed peoplewhohavesoughtworkinthelast4 weeks,areavailableto start
workwithin2 weeksand are currently notin employment plusthosepeoplewho
are waitingto starta job alreadyattained.Hereevidenceof job searchis usedas
a measureof thedesireforworkat availableratesof pay (see Hussmans(1990)
fordetails).
As Worswick(1976) pointedout, we are interested in unemployment fortwo
quitedistinctreasons.We requireeconomicindicators to measureexcesslabour
supplyintheeconomy tojudgethesuccessoflabourmarket policiesandtheamount
1994] UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS IN UK 261

of disequilibrium in the labour market.However,we are also interested in

unemployment and alienation
as a socialindicator-tomeasurethesocialdistress
associatedwithjoblessness.
Social scientists
thereforewantinformationon
(a) thenumbersof peoplewithoutworkand competing in thelabourmarket
(excesslaboursupply),
(b) theincidence of unemploymentfordifferent groupsaccordingto theirsex,
age, race,previousindustryor occupation,
(c) thelikelihoodofentryintounemployment, expected
durationandlikelihood
of exit,
(d) the likelihoodof repeatedre-entry into unemployment and the labour
marketstatewhennot unemployed (i.e. flowsbetweenstates),
(e) theintensityof job searchand its variations,and
(f) theeffects of benefits,
government schemesetc. on theabove.
Furthermore, weareinterested inchangesinthenumbers coveredbytheseconcepts
overfairlylongperiodsto facilitate timecomparisons on constantcoverage.
It is worthnotingthatthereare tensionsbetweenunemployment as a measure
ofexcesslaboursupplyandas a socialindicator. Forinstance, anypersonforwhom
benefits are theprimary sourceof incomeand who wouldtakeworkif it were
availableis of interest in thesocialsenseirrespectiveof whether theyare currently
searching forwork.Consequently itis usefulto introduceanotherconceptto cover
thosewhowouldtakeworkif workwereavailablebut are not currently seeking
work.Knight(1987) arguedthatthesepeople,knownas 'discouraged workers',
shouldbe includedamongtheunemployed buttheyareclearlynotpartofa current
measureofexcesslaboursupply.Insteadtheyarea measureoflikelyfuture entrants
to thelabourforcewhenworkis morewidelyavailable.As Metcalf(1984)notes,
employment acrossa businesscyclevariesmuchmorethanconventionally defined
unemployment. Between1984and 1990theemployment rateamongthepopulation
of working age roseby6.4% buttheunemployment rateamongthesamepopula-
tionfellby only3.5 o. Thiswas a periodof relatively littlechangein thesize of
the populationand thisdifference is drivenby increasedparticipation as work
becamemorereadilyavailable(the encouragedworkereffect)and longer-term
trendsforincreasedparticipation by women.
The discouragedworkeridea is a usefulconceptto coverthose for whom
unemployment is stillan undesirable statebutwho are notcoveredby a measure
of excesslabour supply.However,thereis no commonlyused definition of
discouraged workers.The ILO manualon definitions of unemployment suggests
thatalthoughtheconceptis not precise
'the termdiscouragedworkersgenerally refersto personswho wanta job and are
currentlyavailableforworkbutwhohavegivenup anyactivesearchforworkbecause
theybelievethattheycannotfindit' (International 1990).
LabourOrganization,
The Department of Employment measurecoversthosewho wantwork,are not
searchingforworkand giveas themainreasonforinactivity theshortage ofjobs
available.Thisnumberis typically
small,varyingfroma littleover200000in 1986
to justunder100000in 1992.Hence,thismeasureusesonlylabourmarketcriteria
to assess discouraged
ratherthanpersonalcriteriasuch as age or qualifications
262 GREGG [Part2,
TABLE 3
Number of people who were not counted as unemployedon the ILO-OECD definition
but stated that theywould like workt

Reason Men Women All

(thousands) (thousands) (thousands)

Seekingwork but unavailable to start 148 165 313

Not seekingbut want work 460 1180 1639
Total 608 1345 1952

Reason statedfor not searching(%o)

Temporarysick, on holiday or 11.1 5.4 6.8

awaitingapplicationresult
Student 6.3 2.6 3.5
Long-termsick or disabled 44.8 11.5 19.8
Looking afterfamilyor home 9.4 61.9 48.8
Believesno job available 10.3 5.2 6.5
Not yet startedlooking 3.9 4.4 4.3
Other inactive 14.1 9.0 10.3

tBritain, spring1992; source, 1992 LFS.

status.Yet in 1992(accordingto the LFS) over 1.6 millionpeoplenot currently

searchingindicatedthattheywouldlikeworkbutcitea widevariety of reasonsfor
notsearching thisis a verybroaddefinition
(seeTable 3). Although of discouraged
workers,analysingand monitoring changesin the size of this group may
neverthelessofferan insightintothewiderunsatisfied demandforwork.
Table 4 givesthe timeseriesfiguresfor economicinactivity afterexcluding
studentsand thoselookingafterthehome.The sharpgrowthin inactivity among
menand womenafter1979and itsapparentcyclicalcoincidence (negatively)with
movements in claimantunemployment, whichpeakedin 1986,fellbackuntil1989
TABLE 4
ratesin the UKfor men
Economic inactivity
aged 16-64 years and women aged 16-59
years otherthan studentsor those looking
afterthe homet

Year Women Men

(No) (No)

1979t 3.6 4.5

1984 8.6 7.9
1986 9.4 8.3
1989 8.8 7.9
1992 9.2 9.6

t Source,LFSs 1979-91and EmploymentGazette

September1992.
tThe 1979 figureis inactivityon the old labour
force definition.This makes littledifferenceto
the overall impression.
1994] UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS IN UK 263
TABLE 5
Breakdownof adult population by categoryof economic activityt

Status Claimants Non-claimants Total

(thousands) (thousands) (thousands)

In employment 320 24565 24885

Seekingwork4 1760 890 2649
Wantingwork? 330 1622 1952
Not wanting
work 200 14368 14568??
2610 41444 44054

spring1992;source,calculations
t Britain, madefromEmployment Gazette,November1992,p. 537,andLabour
ForceSurveyQuarterly Bulletinno. 1 and unpublished
LFS data.
t ILO-OECD definitions.
?Thiscategoryexcludesthoseseeking workon ILO definitions
butincludes thoseseeking
workbutunableto start
in thenext2 weeks.
??Unpaidfamily members includedin notwanting work.

androseagainsubsequently.
Thisimpliesthatthesocialimplicationsoftheshortage
of workmayneeda broaderanalysisthanconventional unemployment measures.
Thispointis further
broughtoutbytheinformation on changesof economicstate
between1990and 1991containedin theLFS. Amongthepopulationof working
age, about24%Vo
of womenwhowereinactivein 1990wereactivein 1991(18%Vo in
employment) and20%Vooftheunemployed wereinactivea yearlater.Formen,26%Vo
of thosewhowereinactivehad becomeactive(19%Vo in employment) and 13%Vo
of
thoseunemployed a yearbeforewerenowinactive.Hence,thedistinction between
inactivity
and unemployment is oftenslight.

6. ASSESSMENT OF DATA AVAILABLE

So howefficientis theclaimantcountin enablingus to analysetheseissues?As
alreadynoted,the monthlyclaimantcountdoes not measurethe international
definition
of unemployment verywell.Table 5 showsa breakdown of thepopula-
tionof working age by claimantstatusfor1992.
TABLE 6
Claimantstatus in relationto all adults not workingt

Category Participation
ratet Claimants? Claimants?? Claimantsnotwanting
searching as % of wantingas % of as % of all not
all searching all wanting wanting

Male 73.8 80 34 4
Female 52.8 44 9 2
All 62.9 66 17 2

tBritain,spring1992.
tTheparticipationrateis thoseworking
or searching
on ILO definitions
as a percentage
oftheadultpopulation.
? ILO-OECD definitions.
??Thiscategory excludesthoseseekingworkon ILO definitions
butincludesthoseseekingworkbutunableto
startin thenext2 weeks.
264 GREGG [Part2,
Althoughtotalsfortheclaimantcountand theILO-OECD measureof those
seekingworkare similar(2.61 millionand 2.65 millionrespectively), thisobscures
thefactthatthenumber ofpeoplebothclaiming and searching was onlytwo-thirds
of all thoseclaiming.Thismeansthatabout850000claimants werenotsearching
forwork(or werein employment) and 890000weresearching forworkbut not
claimingbenefits.
Furthermore, as Table 6 shows,formalesmostof thosesearching areclaimants
butforwomenonlyaround40% claim.Claimants also constitute
a sizableminority
of thosenotsearching forworkbutwantingit, buta relatively smallproportion
ofthosenotwanting workat all. Acrossall thesecategories malesarealwaysmore
likelyto be claimants thanfemales.Therefore, evenifthetotalfigures arebroadly
similar,disaggregations, by sexin particular, are highlyunreliable. Womenmake
up aroundtwo-thirds of thosesearching forworkbutnoteligibleforbenefits, and
menconstitute two-thirds of thoseclaimingbut not searching forwork.
Consequently thereis a largegroupof peoplewho are commonto boththe
unemployed claimant countanda measureofthosewhoaresearching. Thisensures
thatthetwomeasuresof theunemployed willnormally movein thesamedirection
but the differences are sufficientlyimportant to producesubstantial divergences
between thetwoseries;see Table 7. Hence,in 1984an estimate of theILO-OECD
measureof theunemployed searching forworkwas about340000higherthanthe
claimant count.By 1986thishad beenerodedso thattheclaimantcountwas 10000
higher andreversed againby1990and theILO-OECD measurewas370000higher.
The NationalInstitute (1983) reportedresultsfromthe 1971 and 1981censuses
whichindicated thatsuchinstabilities also existedinthe1970s.Theclaimant register
roseby 1.68 millionbetweenthesetwo dateswhereasthecensusesmeasuredan
increaseof 1.31millionon theold labourforcedefinition of searchunemployment
(broadlyspeakingthismeasuredactivesearchin thelast2 weeks).Theyattributed
mostof thedifference overthisperiodto an increasein thepropensity of women
to register.
The relationship betweentheclaimantcountand themeasureof searchunem-
ployment hasbeenhighly unstableinthelate1980s.No doubtthisis inpartbecause
therestart initiativeetc. encouragedsearchactivity amongclaimants,but it still
impliesthateventheconsistent seriesof thecounthas proveda poorguideto the
rateof changeof excesslaboursupplyoverthisperiod.However,it remainsa
reasonableindicatorof thedirection of change.For instance,therewere900000
TABLE 7
ILO-OECD measuresfor Britaint
and claimantunemployment

Time series Measure (millions)for thefollowingyears:

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

ILO-OECD 3.11 2.98 2.98 2.89 2.38 1.98 1.87 2.30 2.65
Claimant 2.77 2.91 2.99 2.81 2.28 1.75 1.50 2.05 2.59
ILO - claimant 0.34 0.07 -0.01 0.08 0.10 0.23 0.37 0.25 0.06

t Source,LFS HistoricalSupplement,April 1993. The claimantmeasureis the SAUCCC seriesdescribedearlier

for the same period as when the LFS was carriedout (March-Aprileach year).
1994] UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS IN UK 265

peoplecommonto bothmeasureswho ceasedto be unemployed

overtheperiod
1987-90.
Usingthecountas a indicator of socialdistresscan giveus detailedbreakdowns
by sex,age, durationand regionof thoseclaimingbenefitand flowsin and out
of thisstate.Evenherethereare problems.First,we knowrelatively littleabout
howtheseindicators comparewiththosefora broaderdefinition ofunemployment.
A moreseriousproblemis thelack of consistent seriesfromofficialsourcesfor
manyof thesemeasures.Consequently, we have an imperfect idea of how, for
instance,durationpatterns have changedoverthe 1980s.Consistent and reliable
seriesare onlyavailablefortotalmales,femalesand regionalbreakdowns. This
paucityof reliableinformation is due to the difficulty and cost of constructing
consistentseriesforeach area of potentialinterest.
Benefitdependence maybe a good measureof socialdistress if associatedwith
poverty, as is probableforlong-term benefitdependence.Furthermore, benefit
payments are highlyimportant in government budgetary decisionsetc. However,
on thesecriteriaa sole relianceon the claimantcountas a measureof benefit
dependence whenout of workis inappropriate as manypeoplewillbe entitled to
alternativebenefits and stillwantwork(e.g. thedisabledor sick).Furthermore, the
greatestsocial distressmayoccurfromthe absenceof benefits if no alternative
sourcesof incomeare available.
The claimantcountdoes have strengths, notablyits speedof collationand its
potentialforgeographical disaggregations. Thisfeature helpsin nationaland local
government planning,and indeedbenefitreceiptis oftena usefulcriterion for
decision-making. Yet, if thereis a significantvariationin thepropensity to claim
benefits,thegeographical variationin unemployment maybe different fromthe
geographical distribution of benefitclaims.
In additiontheprogressive movessince1986to tighten thecriteria foravailability
forworkforthereceiptof benefits, combinedwiththeintroduction of a commit-
mentto searchforworkmaymeanthatthegap betweentheclaimantcountand
a measureof searchunemployment has narrowed.This improvement will be
reinforcedifan intensity of searchis greater amongclaimants (perhapsbecauseof
thethreatof benefitwithdrawal), as foundby Wadsworth (1991).
Does thecombination of thecountand otherdata sourcessuchas theLFS give
a reasonably robustand timeconsistent pictureof unemployment in theUK? The
answerhas to be no. Betweenthemtheycovertheissuesthatwe wantto analyse
butthesplitbetweensourcesmakesinteractions impossible. Theyfailto produce
a good historical seriesformanyissueswhichmakestimecomparisons a mire.
Finally,muchof the information is onlyavailableat intervals, whichforthe
claimantcohortsare verylongintervals, and oftenthereis a longlag beforethe
information is released.

7. LOOKING TO FUTURE
The futureis not as barrenas the past, forwe now have an opportunity to
overhaultheunemployment statistics. manyofthe
Thiswillenableus to overcome
pastproblems.The principalsourceof newinformationforthisprocesswillbe the
new quarterlyLFS. Fromthe springof 1992the previously annualpublication
266 GREGG [Part2,
becamequarterly, witha muchshorter timelag beforepublication, and thisallows
for,amongotherthings,thefrequent measurement of searchunemployment. In
addition,it offersan opportunity to put the unemployment statisticsbeyond
suspicionof politicalintervention.
Changesin themonthly claimantcountcan be usedas firstapproximations of
changesin searchunemployment on internationally accepteddefinitions. Subse-
quently thesewouldbe revised eachquarter whentheLFS results comein.Therefore
any discontinuity betweenfigureswill onlyhave a shortrunimpact.This is a
commontechnique in deriving dataandis alreadyusedbytheOECD and
statistical
EEC in ascertaining unemployment estimates fortheUK. This techniqueshould
enablethe creationof a back seriesat leastuntil1984. (An estimateof search
unemployment was includedin theLFS before1984buton a different definition
of searchin thelast 2 weekscalledthe'GB labourforcemeasure'.)
Furthermore, overtimethequarterly LFS willprovidetimeseriesmeasuresof
mostoftheissuesin whichwe areinterested, concerning theincidence and concen-
trationof unemployment. It willcoverall aspectsof the sex, age and previous
occupationcharacteristics of theunemployed, as wellas unemployment duration
andmeasures ofintensityofjob search.(In additionto thenewquarterly LFS from
1994the new computerized claimantcountserieswill also providemeasuresof
occupational unemployment forthisseries.)The remaining issuesof flowsbetween
states,exitprobabilities
andre-entry ratescanbe addressed byoneotherkeyfeature
of thenewLFS: a movingpanel in whichindividuals willappearin up to four
consecutive LFS samples.In thiswaytheirprogresscan therefore be monitored.
Finally,as a surveyofall individuals and notjustclaimants, itcan provideinsights
intopeople'scharacteristics whennot in workand evenwhennot searching for
work.(Seasonalvariations intheILO-OECD measureofunemployment havebeen
computed byusingunpublished quarterly data availablesince1984.Although the
samplesizesinvolvedwereconsidered too smallto warrantpublication, theyare
deemedsufficient to produceseasonaladjustments forrelevantseries.)
Thereare,however,severalproblems(at leastin theshortrun)associatedwith
themoveto thequarterly LFS. First,sampling variationina survey measuremeans
thattherewillbe a marginof erroraroundthecentralestimateforany chosen
measure.Thiswilltakecarefulmonitoring in theshorttermuntilthelikelybounds
forerrorbecomeestablished. Second,theshorttimeseries,evenif data back to
1984areused,meansthatrelatively littletimeseriesanalysisis possible.Thismakes
thedistinction betweencyclicalstructural changesproblematical in an analysisof
thedata,thoughthiscan be partlyovercome byusingthecross-sectional variation.
Thisnewsourceof information raisesanotherpotentialinsight intounemploy-
ment.In 1976JuliusShiskin,a former US Commissioner forLabour Statistics,
raisedthe idea of alternative measuresof unemployment for different needs.
He advocatedtheestablishment of severalalternative measures,each designedto
be of use in different circumstances (Shiskin,1976). None of thesewouldbe a
measureof trueunemployment becauseof a lack of a uniquedefinition of 'true
unemployment'. This has beenadoptedin theUSA (see Sorrentino (1993)).
Sucha system was advocatedfortheUK byMiller(1988)and is currently used
in the UK formoneysupplyfigures(MO, Ml etc.). Indeednotationcould be
borrowed fromthesedata. A revivalof thisidea is opportune, giventhenewdata
sourceand the conflictbetweenunemployment statistics
as measuresof excess
1994] UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS IN UK 267

laboursupplyand social distress.The claimantcounthas the featurethatit is a

measureof bothexcesslaboursupplyand social distress, but a poor measureof
both.Therefore, twoalternativemeasures ofexcesssupplyshouldbe produced.The
firstis thatderivedfromtheLFS forsearchunemployment on internationaldefini-
tions.Thisshouldbe thekeynumberforeconomiccommentators on theUK labour
market. A broadermeasureofexcesssupplyshouldincludepotential labourmarket
entrants (e.g. discouragedworkers)and thuswould reflectthe numberof jobs
neededto be createdto absorbthecurrent unsatisfied
desireforwork.TheEmploy-
mentDepartment's definitionof discouragedworkers is verynarrowand thetotal
number ofpeoplein theLFS indicating thattheywantworkmaybe too expansive
as itis unclearunderwhatcircumstances theywouldstartsearching forwork.The
Employment PolicyInstitute
(1992)advocatesa broadermeasureof excesslabour
supplywhichwouldincludethecurrent ILO-OECD measureplus claimantswho
statethattheywantworkand non-claimants who are classifiedas discouraged
workers (i.e. thosewhodo notsearchbecausetheybelievethatno workis available).
In additionit wouldbe reasonableto includethosecurrently searching but not
availableto startfor2 weeks-in 1992thesegroupsnumbered around900000.An
alternative wouldbe to ask thosenot currently searching forworkwhether they
intendto searchand wouldbe able to startworkin a futureperiod,perhaps1 or
3 months.
A broadermeasureof socialdistress through absenceof workis also required.
The dependence on benefitas themainsourceof incomeamongthepopulationof
working age rosesharplyin the 1980s.The risein claimantunemployment is only
partofthisstory.Table 8 givesdetailsofthenumbers claiming IS butwhoarenot
considered availableforworkandhencenotunemployed, as wellas thosereceiving
invalidity and sicknessbenefits.
The numberson sicknessand invalidity benefits
have risenby around400000
since1986afterhavingpreviously beenstableand IS claimants notin theclaimant

TABLE 8
Benefitrecipientsnot includedin the claimantcount, 1980-91t

Men Women Total

(thousands) (thousands) (thousands)

iS
1991 616 1130 1746
1989 526 981 1507
1986t 368 732 1100
1980t 138 432 571

Sicknessand invalidity
1991 1020 472 1492
1989 891 374 1265
1986 807 267 1076
1980 800 255 1055

tMen 16-64 yearsold, women 16-59 yearsold; source,Annual Abstractof Statistics,1993, and
Social SecurityStatistics,various years.
t Supplementary benefitratherthan IS applied in theseyears. Claimantstatusis as definedat the
point in time.
268 GREGG [Part2,
counthaverisensteadily throughout the1980sbyaround1.2 million.Not all these
are availableor wanting to workbut,althoughsocialtrendstowardssingle-parent
familieswillincreasetheIS dependence, it is difficult
to believethatsicknessand
disabilityare risingso dramaticallyin theUK. The mainreasonforthisincrease
is thelongerdurationsof claimsas outflowsintoemployment havedeclined(see
Disneyand Webb (1991)).
A measureof widersocial distressdue to shortagesof availableworkshould
includeall familymembers wherean absenceof workor a shortfall in thedesired
amountof workby one or moremembers is causinglow householdincome.This
wouldthenexcludethosefamilieswhereone memberis out of workwhileothers
have earnedincomesand would includeall thoserequiring benefits(e.g. non-
claimantIS, family and sicknessbenefit)
credit,invalidity to raisetheincomelevel
fromthelowbasecausedthrough lackofavailableworkforoneormoremembers.
This measurewouldbe calculablefromavailablesources,althoughtheywould
requiredetailsof incomeand otherextraquestionsin theLFS. Wherever possible,
disaggregations in linewiththecriteriain Section2 shouldbe made.

8. CONCLUSIONS
In the 1980stherehas been a deterioration in the usefulnessin the monthly
claimant countas a sourceofinformation usedforstudying majorissuesconcerned
withunemployment. Although theGSS has notbeeninvolvedin anyunreasonable
manipulation thishas notmeantthatthedatahavebeenfreefrom
ofthestatistics,
potentialpoliticalinterference.This is becausethe raw data are not underthe
controloftheGSS butdependon theadministrative rulesforentitlement to benefit
in forceat any pointin time.This is at least partlydetermined by Ministerial
decisions.
Ratherthanlookingbackto a previousincarnation of thecount-whichwas in
itselfa poor measureof underlying unemployment-we shouldgo forwards to
makingthe new quarterlyLFS the primesource for answeringquestionson
unemployment. Thisdatasourceproducesunemployment whicharetotally
statistics
independent.
The claimantcountis usefulforits speed of production, forits local detail
and measurement of dependenceon benefits.However,it should not be the
principalsourceof data whenwe are trying to understand unemployment and its
effects.The new quarterly LFS providesan opportunity forthe GSS to regain
in relationto unemployment
credibility data. It also offersthepotential to answer
broaderquestionsof interestto social scientistsand others,withrespectto
unemployment.
Although theclaimantcountshouldcontinue,it shouldbe replacedas thekey
measureof excesslaboursupplyin theeconomyby a searchmeasureon interna-
tionaldefinitions.Thiswouldusefully be supplemented by a broadermeasureof
theunsatisfieddemandforworkand a measureof theextentof distress causedby
absence of work. None of thesemeasuresalone wouldascertainthelevelof true
unemployment, forin realitythereis no suchuniquemeasure.Insteaddifferent
indicatorswouldprovideinformation on differing aspectsof theeffectsof lackof
workon theUK's economyand society.
1994] UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS IN UK 269

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to thank Paul Allin, AndrewBritton,the Editor and the referees
forcommentson a previousdraftof thispaper. All the seriesin Figs 1 and 2 were
providingby Dr David Taylor of the UU.

APPENDIX A
fromtheEmployment
are someusefulreferences
The following the
Gazetteconcerning
monthlyunemployment withthe LFS measuresof unem-
count(includingcomparisons
ployment).
May 1980 'A reviewof unemployment and vacancystatistics'
September1982 'Compilationof theunemployment statistics'
December1982 'Changedbasis of theunemployment statistics'
June1983 'The unemployed: surveyestimates for 1981comparedwiththe
monthly count'
August1984 'The unemployed: surveyestimates for 1983comparedwiththe
monthly count'
July1985 'Unemployment adjustedfordiscontinuities and seasonality'
October1985 'Unemployment: estimatesfromthe LFS comparedwiththe
monthly claimantcount'
1986
March-April 'Change in the compilationof the monthlyunemployment
statistics'
October1986 'Unemployment figures:theclaimantcountandtheLabourForce
Survey'
January1988 'Measuresof unemployment of the un-
and the characteristics
employed'
October1988 'Measuresof unemployment of the un-
and the characteristics
employed'
December1988 'Unemployment statistics:revisionsto the seasonallyadjusted
series'
August1989 'Measuresof unemployment: claimantcountand Labour Force
Survey'
October1990 'Measuresof unemployment'
December1990 'Monthly unemployment statistics:
maintaining a consistent
series'
November1991 'Measuresof unemployment: claimantcountand Labour Force
Survey'
July1992 'Measuresof unemployment: claimantcountand Labour Force
Survey'
September1992 'How unemployment is measuredin othercountries'
June1993 of theILO unemployed'
'Characteristics

REFERENCES
Dilnot,A. and Kell, M. (1987) Male unemployment and women'swork.Fisc. Stud., 8, no. 3,
1-16.
Disney,R. and Webb,S. (1991)Whyare thereso manylongtermsickin Britain?Econ. J., 101,
252-263.
Employment (1992)Figuring
PolicyInstitute Econ. Rep., 7, no. 2, Sept.
out unemployment.
Hussmans, standards
R. (1990)International of economicactivity,
on themeasurement employment,
unemployment and underemployment.In Developments LabourStatistics
inInternational (ed. R.
Turvey).London:Pinter.
270 GREGG [Part 2,
InternationalLabour Organization(1990) Surveysof EconomicallyActivePopulation, Employment,
Unemployment an ILO Manualof ConceptsandMethods,p. 107.Geneva:
and Underemployment:
InternationalLabour Office.
Kell, M. and Wright,J. (1990) Benefitsand thelabour supplyof womenmarriedto unemployedmen.
Econ. J., 100, 119-126.
Keynes,J. M. (1937) The generaltheoryof employment.Q. J. Econ., Feb.
Knight,K. G. (1987) Unemployment:an Economic Analysis. London: Croom Helm.
Lawlor, J. (1990) Monthlyunemployment statistics:maintaininga consistentseries.EmplymntGaz.,
98, 601-608.
Metcalf,D. (1984) On the measurementof employmentand unemployment. Natn. Inst. Econ. Rev.,
no. 109, Aug., 59-67.
Miller,R. (1988) The End of Unemployment.London: Atlas Economic Research Foundation.
Narendranathan,W., Nickell,S. and Stern,J. (1985) Unemployment benefitsrevisited.Econ. J., 95,
307-329.
National Institute(1983) Unemployment.Natn. Inst. Econ. Rev., Nov., 39-47.
Shiskin,J. (1976) Shiskinon the unemploymentnumbers.New York Times, Jan. 18th.
Sorrentino,C. (1993) Internationalcomparisonsof unemployment indicators.MthlyLab. Rev., Mar.,
3-24.
Taylor, D. (1984) The unemploymentnumbers game. UnemploymentUnit Bulletin 11, Jan.
UnemploymentUnit, London.
(1986) Creativecounting.Unemployment Bulletin20, summer.Unemployment Unit, London.
The Times (1991) The Times, Apr. 19th.
Wadsworth,J. (1991) Unemployment benefitsand searcheffortin theUK labour market.Economica,
58, 17-34.
White,A. and-Leyland,J. (1992) How unemployment is measuredin differentcountries.Emplymnt
Gaz., 100, 421-433.
G. D. N. (1976)TheConceptand Measurement
Worswick, of Involuntary Boulder:
Unemployment.
West View.