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GESTÃO DA MANUTENÇÃO
RELIABILITY GROWTH
Failure Rate
N(T)
N (T )
λ (T ) ⇒ λ =
ˆ
T
Failure Rate
2. Logarithmic trend
N(T)
λ (T ) ⇒ λˆ = λβ T β −1 (Crow Model)
Reliability Growth
The first prototypes produced during the development of a new complex system
will contain:
design, manufacturing and/or engineering deficiencies.
the initial reliability of the prototypes may be below the system's reliability
goal or requirement.
Problem areas are identified and appropriate corrective actions (or redesign)
are taken.
Reliability Growth
The reliability growth test, analysis and fix concept in design is applied by
uncovering weaknesses during the testing stages and performing appropriate
corrective actions before full-scale production. A corrective action takes place at
the problem and root cause level. Therefore, a failure mode is a problem and
root cause. Reliability growth addresses failure modes.
Reliability Growth
The initial MTBF is the value actually achieved by the basic reliability tasks.
The growth potential is the MTBF, with the current management strategy, that
can be attained if the test is conducted long enough.
Reliability Growth
Success/Failure Data
also referred to as discrete or attribute data
It involves recording data from a test for a unit when there are only two
possible outcomes: success or failure.
HPP NHPP
T T
Duane Model
Alpha=-1.9467, b=18364.7224
Duane Model
Slope of tangent λi
λc
Expected number of failures N(T)
N (t ) = t 1−α
1 ( )
b λc = N T = 1 T −α
T b
Slope of chord = λc
ln(λ’s)
d (E ( N (T ))) 1
λi = = (1 − α )T −α = (1 − α )λc
dT b
1 ln(1 − α ) ln(λc )
ln(λi ) = ln (1 − α ) + ln λc = ln (1 − α ) + ln − α ln T
b
ln(λi )
ln(T)
Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)
Gestão da Manutenção 11
Duane Model
T
MTBFc =
N (T )
y = mx + c
y = ln(MTBFc )
x = ln(T )
m =α
c = ln b
ln(MTBFc ) = ln b + α ln(T )
MTBFc = bT α
1
MTBFi = MTBFc , α ≠ 1
1−α
α = 1 implies infinite MTBF growth.
Duane Model
α < 0.2 Reliability has low priority (minimum effort on the improvement of
the product’s reliability)
Both the failure rate or MTBF at time T can be obtained through graphical
extrapolation.
inaccurate when there is a poor
data adjustment
Crow Model
The reliability growth pattern for the Crow model is exactly the same pattern
as for the Duane postulate: the cumulative number of failures is linear when
plotted on ln-ln scale.
Crow Model
The expected number of failures experienced over the test interval [0, T]
T
E[N (T )] = ∫ ρ (t )dt
0
The Crow model assumes that ρ (T ) may be approximated by the Weibull failure rate function
β β −1
ρ (t ) = λi (t ) = β
⋅t
η
Crow Model
Crow Model
N (t ) = λ ⋅ T β
ln ( N (t )) = β ln t + ln λ ln N(t)
ln( N (t )) = β ln t + ln λ
declive β
ln(T)
N (t ) = λ ⋅ β ⋅ T β −1 → λ (T0 ) = λ ⋅ β ⋅ T0 = N (T0 ) β T0
d β −1
dt
Crow Model
β
1
(
− β Tiβ −Tiβ−1 )
f (Ti Ti −1 ) = β ⋅ Ti β −1 η
e
η
The likelihood function is β n
β −1 1
β
n
n − ∑ tiβ
L = β ⋅ Π ti
i =1 ⋅ e η i =1
η
where T* is the termination time and is given by:
And differentiating with respect to yields:
N N
β̂ = N
βˆ = N −1
∑ ln 0 Ti ∑ ln n Ti
T T
i =1 i =1
MTBF = θˆ(T ) = T N ⋅ βˆ =1 λˆ ⋅ βˆ ⋅ T β −1
ˆ