Employment-Unemployment Situation in the Nineties: Some Results from NSS 55th Round

Survey
Author(s): K. Sundaram
Source: Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 36, No. 11 (Mar. 17-23, 2001), pp. 931-933+935-940
Published by: Economic and Political Weekly
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 Special articles

Employment-U Situation
in the Nineties
Some Results from NSS 55th Round Survey
Based on a comparative analysis of the NSS Employment-Unemployment Surveysfor 1993-94
and 1999-2000, this paper examines, at the all-India level, the changes in: the size and
structureof workforce; the extent of unemploymentand underemployment;labour productivity
and days worked; and wage earnings per worker and per head of population in rural and
urban India. Key results include a slower growth of workforce relative to that of population; a
reduction in the share and size of the workforce in agriculture and in community,social and
personal services; and widespread gains in labour productivitygetting translated into equally
widespread and significant growth in average wage earnings per worker and per capita.
K SUNDARAM

I the country. Finally, we examine the Usual Status (PS+SS) categorisation

Introduction
T he National Sample Survey
Organisation (NSSO) has recently
released the report containing key
results of the NSS 55th Round Employ-
ment-Unemployment Survey covering the
period July 1999 thru June 2000.1 Being
canvassed over a separate set of house-
holds, the results of the Employment-
Unemployment Survey are also free of the
controversies surrounding the NSS 55th
Round Consumer Expenditure Survey.2
They therefore provide an opportunity to
review the changes in the size and structure
of the workforce and in the unemployment'
situationin the countryinthe 1990s through
a comparative analysis of the results of
the large-scale quinquennial surveys for
1993-94 and 1999-2000. The analysis will
be primarily at the all-India level. But, at
this level of aggregation, we will consider
separatelythe four segments differentiated
by gender and rural-urbanlocation: rural
males; rural females; urban males; and
urban females. We will examine the
changes in the size of the workforce and
the underlying workforce participation
rates, the industrial distribution of this
workforce, the changes in labour producti-
vity and, the changes in the extent of
unemployment and underemployment in
changes in the averagenumberof days
workedby a workerontheusualstatusand
the changes, in real terms, in the daily
average wage earnings of casual wage
labourersandin the averageyearly'wage
earnings'per capita.
II
Size of Workforce
For the countryas a whole we have in
the PopulationProjectionsfor Indiaand
States1996-2016of RegistrarGeneralof
India[GoI1996],populationestimatesfor
March1 of 1999 and2000 separatelyfor
the four segments.By interpolation,we
obtain estimates of population as on
January1, 2000 - the mid-poifltof the
SurveyYear 1999-2000- separatelyfor
ruralmales,ruralfemales,urbanmalesand
urbanfemales.3
Applyingto these populationestimates
thesegment-specific(crude)worker-popu-
lation ratios(WPRsfor short)as per the
NSS 55th RoundSurvey,the estimatesof
workforceas onJanuary1,2000 by gender
and rural-urbanlocation are obtained.
The WPRs and thereforealso the work-
force estimatesarethose basedon "usual
activitycategorytakingalso into consid-
erationthe subsidiaryeconomicstatusof
personscategorised'notworking"'or the
for short.
Table 1 presentsthe estimatesof popu-
lationandworkforceas on January1,2000
by rural-urbanlocation and by gender
along with correspondingestimates for
January1,1994drawnfromVisaria(1998)
with WPRs drawn from the NSS 50th
Round Employment-Unemployment
Survey(July 1993-June1994). Also pre-
sented in this table are the underlying
(crude) worker-populationratios drawn
from the two quinquennialsurveys.
A strikingresultis the near-stagnation
in the numberof female workersin the
countryas a whole andan absolutereduc-
tion in the numberof women workersin
ruralIndia.This reductionin the number
of womenworkersin ruralIndia,by a little
over 1.3 million, is just about offset by
arise in the number of urban women
workers(1.4 million).4
The above is a consequenceof a sharp
reductionin the WPRsbetween 1993-94
and 1999-2000 for both ruraland urban
women.Thisdeclinein WPRsis, however,
notconfinedto women.It is in factpresent
in each and all the four population-
segments.This has the implicationthat,
in every segment, the rate of growth of
workforceoverthe six-yearperiodwill be
lowerthantherateof growthof population
overthe sameperiod.Thus,in thecountry

Economicand PoliticalWeekly March 17, 2001 931

as a whole, while the population is populationratiofrom 19 to 29 per 1,000. both rural and urban India remain an
projectedto havegrownata littleover 1.75 This is also the case for ruralmalesin the unresolvedpuzzle.
percent per annum(pcpa)between 1994 threeage-groups10-14, 15-19,and20-24, Our state-level review of changes in
and2000, over the same period,the total for urban males in the 10-14 and the worker-population ratios between 1993-
(ruralplus urbanandmalesplus females) 15-19 age-groups,and,to a lesserextent, 94 and1999-2000,notreportedhere,shows
workforcewouldhavegrownbyjust 0.81 in the 20-24 age-groupas well. that, in all the four segmentsthe decline
pcpa.As alreadynoted,the estimatesfor Second,as notedearlier,the decline in inWPRshasbeenwidespreadacrossstates
female workersas on January1, 2000 the age-specificWPRsextendsto all age and, even thoughthe declines have been
implyvirtuallyno growthin theaggregate groupsin all thefourpopulationsegments. quite sharpin a few states,the decline in
and negativegrowthfor women workers And, in age-groups25 years and above, WPRsobservedat the all-Indiais not due
in ruralIndia.Evenin urbanIndia,therate thereareno offsettingbeneficialrisein the to a sharpbut concentrateddecline in a
ofgrowthof womenworkers,at1.30pcpais student-population ratios.These declines few states.
muchlowerthanthe rateof growthof the in the 25 andaboveage-groupaccounted
populationof womenin urbanIndiawhich for over 40 per cent of the decline in the Ill
is projectedto have grown at 3.05 pcpa. crudeWPRfor ruralwomenandfor over Industrial Distribution
Threepoints need to be noted in con- 59 percent of the declinein overallWPR of Workforce
nection with the decline in the (crude) forurbanwomen.However,atleastfor rural
worker-population ratios noted above. women, WPRs on the Usual Principal The 55th Round report presents the
First,thedeclinesin WPRsarenotoffset Status in the 25 and above age group industrialdistributionof the workforce
by any significant rise in the ratio of (except 50-54) are higherin 1999-2000. separatelyfor the four populationseg-
unemployedinthepopulationontheUsual So that,at least in theircase the declines ments but only at the 1-digitdetail. For
Status(PS+SS) categorisation.For rural in the WPRs (on the principalPlus Sub- compactness,we have aggregatedacross
femalesthis ratio is unchangedat 3 per sidiaryStatus)in these groupsis due to genderfortheruralandtheurbanlocations
1,000,while for urbanfemales thereis a entirelyto declinesin WPRson the Sub- and across rural-urbanlocation for esti-
marginaldecline from 10 per 1,000 in sidiaryStatus.But,sizeabledeclinesin the mates for gender.Table 4 presentscom-
1993-94to 8 per 1,000in 1999-2000.The principal status WPRs in the 50-54, parableestimatesfor 1993-94drawnfrom
increasein thisratiofor ruralmales(from 55-59 and 60+ age groupsfor males in Sundaram(2001).
8 per 1,000to 9 per 1,000) and for urban
males(from22 to 24 per 1,000) are also Table 1: Population, Workforce and Crude Worker-Population Ratios (WPRs)
So crude labour force by Rural - Urban Residence and Gender In India, 1993-94 and 1999-2000
marginal. that,
participation rates(WPRs)wouldalsoshow Segment Population Workforce WPRs
a declinebetween1993-94and1999-2000 1993-94 1999-2000 1993-94 1999-2000 1993-94 1999-2000
in all the four populationsegments. Ruralmales 339,360 367,240 187,660 195,000 553 531
Second,in each of the four segments, Rural females
Ruralpersons
317,950
657,310
344,640
711,880
104,290
291,950
103,050
298,050
328
444
299
419
age-specificWPRshavedeclinedbetween Urbanmales 125,200 147,440 65,100 76,370 520 518
1993-94and1999-2000in eachandevery Urbanfemales 112,590 135,010 17,340 18,770 154 139
Urbanpersons 237,790 282,440 82,440 95,140. 347 337
single age-group(five-year age-groups Males 464,560 514,680 252,760 271,370 545 527
between 5 and 59 years and the open- Females 430,540 479,650 121,630 121,820 286 254
endedinterval'60 yearsand above') dis- Persons 895,100 994,330 374,390 393,190 420 395
tinguished in the NSS Report(Table 2). Sources.'1993-94: Visaria(1998).
So the observeddeclinein crudeworker- 1999-2000: Estimates of populationas on January 1, 2000, by segment are obtained by
populationratiosis notduemerelyto shifts interpolationfromestimates forMarch1,1999 and March1,2000 in, PopulationProjectionsfor
/ndiaand States, 1996-2016,RegistrarGeneralof India,New Delhi.
in the age-structureof the population. Workforcefigurescomputedbyapplying(segment-specific)workworker-population ratiosgiven
Third,to a significantextent,the reduc- in the NSSO (2000).
tionin worker-population ratiosreflectsa
beneficialrise in the student-population Table 2: Age-Specific WPRs by Location and Gender In India, 1993-94 and 1999-2000
Per 1,000 Workforce Participation Rates on the Usual Status (PS+SS)
ratios- not only in the 5-9 and the 10-14
age-groups covering the primary and Age-Group RM RF
1993-94
UM UF RM RF
1999-2000
UM UF
middle-schoolsystem, but also in the
15-19andthe20-24 age-groupsindicating 5-9 11 14 5 5 6 7 3 2
a rising participationin secondary and 10-14
15-19
138
577
141 66 45 . 91 96 49 36
364 356 123 503 304 314 105
higher-leveleducation.5Thesegainshave 20-14 859 456 674 183 844 409 658 155
beenparticularly impressiveforruralgirls 25-29 957 525 904 224 950 491 883 194
below 20 years of age (Table 3). 30-34 983 585 964 272 979 555 960 235
35-39 989 608 983 301 984 579 975 285
In relationto the last notedpoint,how- 40-44 987 606 981 320 983 586 974 283
ever, two caveats are in order: 45-49 983 594 973 317 980 566 969 267
First,in the case of ruralwomenin the 50-54
55-59
970
942
542
467
942
856
286
226
953
929
515
450
935
809
262
207
20-24age-group,thedeclineinWPR(from 60+ 699 247 442 113 639 218 402 94
456 per1,000in 1993-94to 409 per 1,000 All ages 553 328 521 155 531 299 518 139
in 1999-2000)is muchgreaterthanthe 10 Notes: RM: Rural Males; RF: Rural Females; UM: Urban Males; UF: Urban Females.
pointrise in the correspondingstudent- Sources.' 1993-94: NSSO (1996); 1999-2000: NSSO (2000).

932 Economicand Political Weekly March 17, 2001

 In interpreting the changesin industrial The manufacturingsector (excluding share of workforcehas been the trade,
distributionduringthe 1990s the changes repairservices)recordsa minorrise in its hotelsandrestaurant sector- from7.6 per
in the rural-urbanand the male-female sharein the aggregateworkforce- from cent in 1993-94to 10.4 per cent in 1999-
compositionof the workforceneed to be 107 per 1,000to 111 per 1,000- between 2000. This sectorhas now emergedas the
keptinview.Theshareof ruralareasin the 1993-94 and 1999-2000.This is despite thirdlargestintermsof workforce- behind
workforcehaserodedby a littleover2 per- a 1 percentagepointreductionin its share the agricultureand the manufacturing
centagepointsfromalevelof 78 percent in intheurbanworkforceandis largelydue to sectors.Thesize of workforceinthissector
1993-94.Theshareof womenworkersin the a rise in the urbansharein the totalwork- has grown from 28.5 million to a little
workforcehasalsofallenfrom22.5percent force.Intheabsenceof suchashiftthe share under41 millionover the period1993-94
in 1993-94 to 21 per cent in 1999-2000. of the manufacturingsector would have to 1999-2000,i e, at a compoundrateof
Both the above noted changes in the remainedvirtuallystagnant.In the aggre- 6.2 per cent per annum.
compositionof the workforcewouldtend gate, the numberof workersin this sector In terms of gains in share of the
to reducethe shareof the agriculturaland hasincreasedby 3.7 millionoverthe1990s. workforce,the constructionsectoris sec-
alliedactivitiesin thetotalworkforceeven Two sectors, construction,and trade, ondonly to thetrade,hotelsandrestaurant
in the absenceof any declinein the share hotelsandrestaurants haveincreasedtheir sector,withgains in all the foursegments
of this sectorin the individualsegments. respectivesharesin theworkforcein each and a 12 (per 1,000) point gain in the
Thus, even with the 1993-94 shares,the and all of the four populationsegments aggregate.Aggregateemploymentin this
1999-2000structureof workforcewould whiletwoothersectorsr-transport, storage sector too has grown at 6.2 per cent per
have reduced the share of industry andcommunication, andfinance,insurance, annum in the period between the two
divisionto zero (agriculture,forestryand real estate and businessservices- do so surveys- from a little over 12 millionin
fisheries)from 639 per 4,000 to 623 per in threesegmentswith unchangedshares 1993-94 to 17.4 million in 1999-2000.
1,000. In actualfact, however,the share in the ruralfemale workforce. The transport,storageandcommunica-
of this sectorin the workforcehas fallen Intheaggregatethebiggestgainerin the tions sector has raisedits sharefrom 29
in each and all of the four population
segments.Consequently,in thetotal(rural Table 3: Age-Specific Student-Population Ratios by.
plus urban and males plus females) Gender and Rural-UrbanLocation In India, 1993-94 and 1999-2000
(Per 1,000)
workforce,theshareof theagricultureand
alliedactivitiessectorrecordsa significant RuralMales RuralFemales UrbanMales UrbanFemales
declineof over 4 percentagepointsfrom SPRs SPRs SPRs SPRs
639 per 1,000in 1993-94to 598 per 1,000 Age-group 1993-94 1999-2000 1993-94 1999-2000 1993-94 1999-2000 1993-94 1999-2000
in 1999-2000.This reductionin the share 5-9 670 707 561 631 841 838 801 810
of the agriculturesectorin the workforce 10-14 743 777 546 635 866 873 812 821
15-19 368 413 190 258 559 585 490 517
is in fact sharpenoughto reducemargin- 20-24 80 86 19 29 205 218 122 158
ally the absolutenumberof workersin Sources. 1993-94: NSSO (1996); 1999-2000: NSSO (2000).
agriculture forthefirsttimesinceindepen-
dence: from 239 million in 1993-94 to Table 4: Per 1,000 Industrial Distribution of Workforce by
under236 million in 1999-2000. Location and Gender, All-India, 1993-94 and 1999-2000
The mining and quarryingsector too
Panel A: By Rural-UrbanLocation
suffers a reduction,albeit small, in the IndustryDivision 1993-94 1999-2000
absolutenumberof workers.So that,over Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total
the period 1993-94 to 1999-2000, the 0 Agriculture,forestry,fisheries 784 123 639 761 88 598
workforcein theprimarysectorisreduced 1 Miningand quarrying 6 12 7 5 8 6
by over 4 million. 2-3 Manufacturing
4 Electricity,gas and water
70
2
236
10
107
4
74
1
227
7
111
3
Minorerosionin theshareas well as the 5 Construction 24 63 32 33 79 44
size of the workforceis also sufferedby 6 Trade,hotels and restaurants 43 194 76 51 269 104
theelectricity,gas andwatersupplysector 7 Transport,storageandcommunication14 79 29 21 87 37
8 Finance,insurance,realestate
wherethe numberof workersis lower by and business services 3 34 10 4 41 13
a little over 350,000. 9 Community,social and
Anotherstrikingchangein theindustrial personalservices 54 248 97 49 195 84
Workforce('000) 291,950 82,440 374,390 298,050 95,140 393,190
distribution of the workforceis the reduc-
tionin the shareandsize of the workforce Panel B: By Gender
in industrydivision9 - community,social 1993-94 1999-2000
Males Females Males Females
and personal services, including repair
services.Froma shareof a little under10 0 Agriculture,forestry,fisheries 573 774 531 748
1 Miningand quarrying 9 4 7 3
per cent of the workforcewith over 36 2-3 Manufacturing 112 94 115 101
million workersin 1993-94, this sector 4 Electricity,gas and water 5 0.4 4 0.3
now employs about 33 million workers 5 Construction 42 14 57 17
6 Trade,hotels and restaurants 97 32 131 43
and has a 8.4 per cent share in the total 7 Transport,storage, communication 41 3 52 4
workforce in 1999-2000.Intermsof gender, 8 Finance,insurance,realestate and business services 13 4 16 5
theshareof thissectorin femaleworkforce 9 Community,social and personalservices 107 76 87 79
Workforce('000) 252,760 121,630 271,370 121,820
has gone up marginally.

Economic and Political Weekly March 17, 2001 933

to 37 per 1,000 in the aggregate,though mentingour measureof labourproducti- morethanone economicactivity.In fact,
itsshareinfemaleworkforcehasremained vity, namely, GVA per worker,we are in 1993-94 the proportionof Usual Prin-
virtuallyunchanged.In the ruralareas,its dividingthe totalGVAin a givenindustry cipal status workersreportingparticipa-
sharehas increasedby 50 percent - from divisionby the numberof workersreport- tionin anothersubsidiaryeconomicactiv-
14 per 1,000 to 21 per 1,000, while the ing that industryas their principal(or ity was about34 percentin ruralareasand
increasein its sharein theurbanworkforce subsidiary) economic activity on the a littleover6 percentin urbanareas.Also,
is a moremodest10 percent (from79 per majoritytimecriterion.Indoingso, we are bothin principleandin practice,workers
1,000 to 87 per 1,000). In the aggregate,implicitlyassumingthat the labourtime in agricultureon theprincipalstatuscould
this sectorhas absorbedabout20 percent of each such workeris spentonly in that beengagedin non-agricultural workonthe
of the incrementalworkforce. industryand thatthe labourtime of only subsidiarystatus, while principalstatus
The financial and business services thoseworkersareutilisedin thatindustry. workersin non-agriculturecould be en-
sector,with a workforceof little under5 Staying within the Usual Status gaged in agriculturalworkon the subsid-
million- about89 percent of themmales categorisation,in respectof workerson the iary status.6
- now has a largersharein the aggregate SubsidiaryStatus,theassumptionthattheir Focusingon theruralsegmentwherewe
workforcethanthe miningandquarrying labourtime is spentalmostentirelyin the have a sizeable proportionof principal
and the electricity,gas and watersupply Industry/Occupation categoryassignedto status workersreportingparticipationin
sectorstakentogether.Thissectorhasadded themon the basis of time criterionwould anothersubsidiaryeconomicactivity,it is
over 1.3 million people to its workforce,appearto be reasonable. seen that,while the participationin non-
which, on a base of 3.6 million, implies In the case of Usual PrincipalStatus agriculturalactivities of principalstatus
anemploymentgrowthattherateof a little workers,the assignmentof a workerto an workersin agriculturewas quitemarginal
under5.3 per cent per annum. Industry/Occupation categoryis done by (about 6 per cent for rural males and
referencetotheactivityinwhichtheworker 3 per cent for ruralfemales), 31 per cent
IV has spentrelativelylargertime duringthe (21 per cent) of ruralmale (ruralfemale)
Growthin LabourProductivity reference year. It is possible thatat least principalstatus workersin non-agricul-
some of the workerswouldbe engagedin turewere engaged in agricultureas an
Thejustreleasedquickestimatesof GDP Table 6: Dimensions of Unemployment by Gender and Rural-Urban Location,
for 1999-2000makeit possible to assess India 1993-94 and 1999-2000
the changesbetween 1993-94 and 1999- Panel A:CurrentDailyStatus UnemploymentRates
2000 in grossvalue addedper (usualsta- RuralMales RuralFemales UrbanMales UrbanFemales
tus)workerat constant1993-94pricesby 1993-94 56 56 67 105
broadindustrydivision.The estimatesof 1999-2000 72 68 72 98
thenumberof workers,grossvalueadded
Panel B: Usual Status Unemployment Rates forthe Educated
(GVA)at 1993-94pricesandof GVA per (Per 1,000)
workeras a measureof averageproduc- Segment Secondaryand Above Graduateand Above
tivity per workerfor 1993-94 and 1999- 1993-94 1999-2000 1993-94 1999-2000
2000,by industrydivisionat 1-digitdetail RuralMales 89 69 134 107
are presentedin Table 5. RuralFemales 243 204 323 351
Beforeproceedingwiththeanalysis,the UrbanMales 69 66 64 66
UrbanFemales 207 163 203 163
following points may be noted:
Let us begin by noting that in imple- Source:Table 16, NSS (2000).

Table 5: Workers, Gross Domestic Product (at 1993-94 Prices) and Labour Productivity by Industry Division In India,
1993-94 and 1999-2000
IndustryDivision 1993-94 1999-2000
GDP at 1993-94 Workforce GVAPer GDPat 1993-94 Workforce GVAPer Worker Rog of GVA
Prices ('000) Worker Prices ('000) (Rs) Per Worker
(Rs Crore) (Rs Crore) (pcpa)
0 Agriculture and alliedactivities 241967 239096 10120 290334 235597 12323 3.34
1 Miningand quarrying 20092 2681 74942 26446 2241 118010 7.86
2 and 3 Manufacturing 125493 196763
Less RepairServices 97 2691 4706
2 and 3 - Excludingrepairservice 122802 39914 30767 192057 43679 43970 6.13
4 Electricity,gas and water 18984 1396 135989 28225 1039 271655 12.22
5 Construction 40593 12147 33418 58728 17454 33647 0.11
6 Trade,hotels + restaurants 99369 28502 34864 168355 40946 41116 2.79
7 Transport,storage and communication 51131 10773 47462 84477 14623 57770 3.33
8 Financing,insurance,etc
Less: GDP in dwellings 90084 146546
43507 51391
(8) - Less GDP on dwelling 46577 3658 127329 95155 4984 190921 6.98
9 Community+ social services
Includingrepairservices 93632 152117
2691 4706
9 (including97) 96323 36281 26549 156823 33181 47263 10.01
AllActivity(excludingGDP in dwelling) 737838 374390 19708 1100600 393,190 28120 6.10

Economicand PoliticalWeekly March 17, 2001 935

additional subsidiary economic activity. Among the only two other sectors of thefourpopulationsegments,withurban
While the above would suggest the need employingclose to or above 15 million womenas thesole exception.Theincrease
for caution in interpretingthe estimates of workers,namely,Construction(17.4 mil- in the daily-statusunemploymentrate is
GVA-per worker in a given industry lion workers)andTransport,Storageand the steepestfor ruralmales (29 per cent)
division as a strict measure of labour Communication(14.6 million workers), followed by ruralfemales (21 per cent).
productivity in that industry, there is no the GVA per workerhas virtuallystag- Forurbanmales,at 7 percenttheincrease
practical way of adjusting the estimate of natedintheConstruction sector.However, is relativelymodest.This increasein the
workers in the different Industrydivisions in the Transport,Storageand Communi- unemploymentratefor ruralmaleshas to
to reflect such cross-participation.7 cationssector,averagelabourproductivity be seen in the context of the rise in the
Second, since there is virtually no in realtermshasgrownat 3.3 percentper shareof casual labour(from 338 to 362
employment correspondingto gross value- annum. per 1,000) and a decline in the shareof
added in the form of rentals from owner- In the two other infrastructuresectors self-employedamongruralmale workers
ships of dwellings, the same is omitted (Electricity,Gas andWater)andFinance, on the usualstatus(principalplus subsid-
from the GDP estimates for Industry Insuranceand Business services, labour iary). Given that the daily status unem-
Division 8: Financing, Insurance, Real productivityhas grown at, respectively, ploymentrate bettercapturesthe unem-
Estate and Business Services, and from 12.2 and 6.3 per cent per annum. ploymentamongcasuallabourersthanthat
aggregate GDP. Overall,with the sole exceptionof the amongtheself-employed(wherewe could
Third, since in our workforce estimates ConstructionSector, labourproductivity be faced with the phenomenonof work
workers engaged in Repair Services (In- has grownin realtermsat close to or over spreading)the rise in the daily statusun-
dustry Group 97) are clubbed with the 3 percent per annumin all the sectorsof employmentrateamongruralmalescould
corresponding 1-digit Division 9 - Com- the economy.In the economyas a whole well be due to the change in the status-
munity, Social and Personal Services - andin two of the threelargestemploying compositionof the workforce[ Sundaram
while estimates of GVA in repair services sectorsoutsideagriculture,realgrossvalue- and Tendulkar1988].
are now merged with the estimates of GDP addedperworkerhas grownat over6 per Beforeproceedingfurther,we maynote
originating in Manufacturing (Industry cent per annumover the six years from a reductionin the unemploymentrateson
Divisions 2+3), the GVA from repair 1993-94 to 1999-2000. the usualprincipalstatusfor the educated
services are deducted from the estimates - those with 'secondaryandabove' level
for manufacturing and merged with the V of educationas alsoforthesub-setof those
GVA-estimates for Industry Division 9. and
Unemployment with 'graduateand above' level of edu-
So that the workforce and the GVA esti- cation- in almostall the fourpopulation
Underemployment
mates are consistent with one another. segments.Theexceptionwasruralfemales
Finally, in respect of the capital-inten- We present,in Table 6, estimates of with 'graduateand above' level of edu-
sive infrastructuresectors, the low-level of currentdaily status unemploymentrates cationwhoexperiencedanincreaseinusual
employment, andthe correspondingly high by gender and rural-urbanlocation for statusunemploymentratefrom323 to 351
level of GVA per worker, must be seen in 1993-94 and 1999-2000. per 1,000 (Table 6, Panel B).
context:theirrolein employment generation At the all-Indialevel, this widely ac- One of the indicatorsof underemploy-
in the economy is indirect by supporting cepted measureof open unemployment mentamongthoseclassifiedas workerson
the growthof othersectors of the economy. indicatesa worseningof the unemploy- theUsual(principalplussubsidiary)status
We may now turn to an analysis of our mentsituationoverthe 1990sin threeout available from the NSS Employment-
estimates of GVA per worker presented in Table 7: Per 1,000 Distribution of Adult (15 and above) Usually Working Persons
Table 5. (Principal and Subsidiary) Who Had Sought or Were Available for Additional Work by
Taking the economy as a whole, the Gender and Rural-Urban Location, All-India, 1993-94 and 1999-2000
GVA per worker has grown, in real terms, 1993-94 1999-2000
Category
from Rs 19,708 to Rs 28,120, i e, at a Not Sought on Sought on Not Soughton Soughton
compound annual rate of over 6 per cent Sought MostDays Some Days Sought MostDays Some Days
per annum. RuralMales
In the agriculture (and allied activities) Self-employed 948 22(8) 30(11) 925 28(10) 47(20)
Casual labourers 887 44(15) 69(27) 829 71(21) 99(46)
sector, which still employs 60 per cent of Allworkers 929 894
29(9) 42(16) 43(14) 64(28)
the workforce or a little over 235 million, RuralFemales
the GVA per worker has grown at a little Self-employed 968 12(5) 20(8) 957 20(5) 23(10)
over 3.3 percent per annumfrom Rs 10,120 Casual labourers 912 35(13) 53(21) 874 47(19) 79(35)
Allworkers 945 22(8) 33(12) 924 31(11) 45(20)
to Rs 12,323 at constant 1993-94 prices. UrbanMales
Apartfrom agriculture,the three largest Self-employed 959 23(11) 19(8) 940 24(11) 37(15)
Casual laboruers 890 55(21) 55(18) 861 53(18) 86(38)
employing sectors are Manufacturing (44 Allworkers 955 24(9) 21(7) 938 25(10) 37(15)
million), Trade, Hotels and Restaurants UrbanFemales
(41 million) and Community, Social and Self-employed 953 23(10) 24(10) 943 24(10) 33(15)
Casual labourers 903 47(19) 50(12) 884 46(13) 70(23)
Personal Services (33 million). In these Allworkers 945 939
29(11) 26(8) 27(10) 34(10)
three sectors, average labour productivity
measuredby GVA per worker has grown Notes. Figureswithinbracketsrelatesto the sum of the proportionof persons (per 1,000) who sought or
were availableforadditionalworkforreasons of (i) 'notenough work'or (ii)'notenough workand
at an annual compound rate of 6.1; 2.8; to supplementincome'.
and 10.1 per cent, respectively. Sources. 1993-94: NSSO (1996); 1999-2000: NSSO (2000).

936 Economic and Political Weekly March 17, 2001

Unemployment Surveys is the proportion for by an increase in the proportion of crease in the proportion of usual status
of such workers (adults above 15 years of those who had sought additional work on workers who sought additional work on
age) who had sought or were available for 'some days'. This is overwhelmingly the 'some days' rather than 'on most days'.
additional work - either on most days or case among all the categories of urban Also, even among those adding to the
on some days of the year. Those who workers - males and females alike. In fact proportion of workers who had sought
reportedthemselves as seeking or available among urban casual labourers there is a additional work 'on most days', the prin-
for additional work are further classified reduction, albeit marginal, in the propor- cipal reason was the need to supplement
by reasons for seeking or being available tion who had sought or were available for income rather than lack of work per se.
for additional work, with 'to supplement additional work 'on most days'. This leads us to consider next the changes
income'; 'not enough work'; and 'not Also noteworthy is the fact that, even in in the average number of days worked and
enough work and to supplement income' rural areas where there is some rise in the the changes in the average daily wage
as the principalrubricsof 'reasons'. In this proportion of those who had sought addi- earnings of casual labourers in the four
tabulation, the proportion of usual status tional work 'on most days', among them, population segments.
workers reportingthat they had not sought those citing either 'notenough work' or 'not
(nor were available for) additional work enough work and to supplement income', VI
may be treated as those who perceive accounted for only about a third of such Days Worked andAverage
themselves to be fully employed duringthe cases. Those citing either of these reasons,
365-day reference period. however, accountedfor 50 percent or more
DailyWageEarnings
7
Table presents for 1993-94 and 1999- of the rise in the of
proportion those who The NSS Employment Report provides
2000 the per 1,000 distribution of adult had sought additionalwork 'on some days' estimates of average daily wage earnings
usually working persons as between those in almost all cases - with the category 'all received by casual labourersby gender and
who had not sought (nor were available urban female workers' as the exception. rural-urbanlocation. For ruralIndia, these
for) aditional work, those who had sought In sum, while there is clear evidence of estimates are separately available in re-
or were available for additional work on increase in self-perceived underemploy- spect of employment in public works,
most days, and, those who did so on some ment, much of this is reflected in an in- employment in agriculture and employ-
days. To focus on the self-perceived
underutilisation of labour time, we also Table 8: Average Daily Wage Earnings Received by Adult (15-59) Casual Wage
Labourers In Rural India by Gender and Activity, All-India, 1993-94 and 1999-2000
present the proportion of those who had (Rupees)
sought additional work - separately for
those who did so on most days and those Activity Rural Males RuralFemales
1993-94 1999-2000 Rate of 1993-94 1999-2000 Rate of
who did so on some days - who reported
(at 1993-94 Growth (at 1993-94 Growth
either 'not enough work' or 'not enough Prices) (Per Cent Prices) (Per Cent
work and to supplement income' as the per Annum) per Annum)
reason. This is presented separately by 1 Publicworks 24.65 30.89 3.83 18.52 24.87 5.04
genderand rural-urbanlocation and within 2 Casual labourin agriculture 21.59 25.48 2.80 15.12 17.99 2.94
each population segment this information 3 Casual labourin non-agriculture 30.15 37.49 3.70 17.46 23.49 5.07
4 Casual labourin all activities 23.18 28.65 3.59 15.33 18.51 3.19
is presented separately for the self-em-
Notes. Adjustmentfor Inflationbetween 1993-94 and 1999-2000 has been made by reference to
ployed workers and casual labourers in ConsumerPrice IndexforAgricultural Labourers(CPIALwithbase 1986-87=100). The value of
addition to all workers. CPIAL(monthlyfiguresaveragedoverthe 12 months,JulythruJune of the SurveyYear)for1993-
A strikingresult to emerge from Table 7 94 and 1999-2000, were, respectively,194.74; and, 309.17.
is the reduction over the 1990s in the Sources. 1993-94: NSSO(1996);1999-2000: NSSO (2000).
proportion of usual status workers who Table 9: Average Wage Earnings Per Day Received by Adult (15-59) Casual Wage
had not sought additional work in every Labourers In Urban Areas by Industry and Gender, All-India, 1993-94 and 1999-2000
(Rupees)
segment and category of workers distin-
guished. This points to an unambiguous Urban Males UrbanFemales
increase in self-perceived underemploy- 1993-94 1999-2000 Rate of 1993-94 1999-2000 Rate of
Industry (at 1993-94 Growth (at 1993-94 Growth
ment among those classified as workers on Group Prices) (Per Cent Prices) (Per Cent
the Usual Status(principaland subsidiary). per Annum) per Annum)
The decline in the proportionof workers 0 25.50 30.29 2.91 16.49 19.64 2.96
who had not sought additional work or, 1 29.60 47.81 8.32 22.59 34.80 7.47
equivalently, the rise in the proportion 42-3 33.27
39.09
40.19
45.23
3.20
2.46
16.09
23.17
26.07
NA
8.38
NA
who had sought additional work is the 5 37.62 42.34 1.99 24.84 30.61 3.54
highest for casual labourers in each of the 6 28.67 34.28 3.02 21.31 28.84 5.17
four segments. And, among casual 7 34.65 39.06 2.02 19.93 30.69 7.46
8 28.57 40.35 5.92 31.43 30.00 (-)0.77
labourersit is the highest for rural males, 9 28.16 34.06 3.22 19.31 17.75 (-)1.39
followed by rural females, urban males 1-9 33.79 39.75 2.74 19.51 24.94 4.18
and urban females, in that order. 0-9 32.38 38.53 2.94 18.49 23.28 3.91
Significantly, except for rural female Notes. Adjustmentfor inflationbetween 1993-94 and 1999-2000 has been made by reference to
ConsumerPrice Indexfor IndustrialWorkers(CPIIWwithbase 1982=100). The value of CPIIW
self-employed workers, a major portion of
the reduction in the proportion who had (monthlyfiguresaveragedoverthe 12 months,JulythruJune of the SurveyYear)for1993-94 and
1999-2000, were, respectively,264 and 433.33.
not sought additional work is accounted Sources. 1993-94: NSSO(1996);1999-2000: NSSO (2000).

Economic and Political Weekly March 17, 2001 937

ment in non-agriculture. Within agricul-
ture,estimatesareseparatelyavailableby
operations.For urbanIndia, these esti-
matesareseparatelyavailableby industry
divisions at 1-digitdetail.
Tables8 and 9 presentrespectivelyfor
rural and urban India the estimates of
average daily wage earnings of adult
(15-59) casuallabourersfor 1993-94and
1999-2000.ForruralIndia,the 1999-2000
estimateshavebeenadjustedfor inflation
between1993-94 and 1999-2000 by ref-
erence to the ConsumerPrice Index for
Agricultural Labourers (CPIAL with
base 1986-87=100) while for urbanIndia
this adjustmenthas been made by refer-
ence to the ConsumerPrice Index for
IndustrialWorkers (CPIIW with base
1982=100).
It is readilyseen that,in ruralIndia,the
averagedailywageearningsof adultmale
casual labourersfinding employmentin
publicworkshave grown, in real terms,
by over 3.8 per cent per annumand that
the rate of growthof real averagedaily
wageearningsof ruralmalecasuallabourers
employedin non-agricultural activitiesis
onlymarginallylower,at 3.70 percentper
annum.The growthin real averagedaily
wageearningsof malecasuallabourersin
agriculture,though lower than that for
thoseemployedin non-agricultural activi-
ties by nearly1 percentagepoint, is still
quitesignificantat2.8 percentperannum.
For ruralfemale casual labourers,the
rateof growthof realdaily wage earnings
of thoseemployedin publicworksandin
non-agricultural activitiesis substantially
higherthanthatfor males at a little over
5 per cent per annum.For ruralfemale
casuallabourersemployedin agricultural
activities, the rate of growth of their
averagedailywage earningsin realterms
was over 2.9 per cent per annum.
Overall,forbothmalesandfemales,real
averagedaily wage earnings of casual
labourers inruralIndiahavegrownatclose
to or above3 percent perannumover the
period 1993-94 to 1999-2000.
ForcasualwagelabourersinurbanIndia,
withtheexceptionof urbanfemalework-
ers employed in Industry Divisions 8
(Financialand Business Services) and 9
andPersonalServices)
(Social,Community
whohavesufferedadeclinein realaverage
daily wage earnings,8real averagedaily
wageearningshavegrownfor bothmales
andfemales in all industrialactivitycat-
egoriesat close to or above3 percent per
annumin mostcases.Therateof growthin
realaveragedailywageearningsof urban
938
male casuallabourersemployedin cons- 1999-2000 at the all-India level for the
truction and in transport,storage and four population segments.
communication hasbeensomewhatslower, For rural males, there is a reduction of
butstillsignificantat2 percentperannum. days at work of 4 days in the year, on the
With the two exceptionsnoted above average,in 1999-2000 comparedto 1993-94
(IndustryDivisions8 and9), urbanfemale and an off-setting increase in the number
casuallabourershaveexperienceda faster of days in unemployment with no change
rateof growthof realaveragedaily wage in the number of days not in the labour
earningsrelativeto the malecounterparts force. In the case of urban males the re-
in all other cases. Taking all industries duction in the number of days worked by
together,realaveragedailywageearningsof 2 days is offset by an increase in the number
urbanfemalecasuallabourershavegrown of days outside the labour force, with no
at close to 4 percentperannum,whilefor change in the numberof days in unemploy-
urban male casual wage labourersthis ment. So that, at least for the urban male
growthrateis closeto3 percentperannum. workers on the usual status, the rise in the
Thus, in all the four populationseg- average rateof daily-status unemployment
ments, average daily wage earningsof would follow not from an increase in the
casuallabourershavegrownata rateclose numberof days in unemployment but from
to or above3 percent perannumoverthe a reduction in the number of days spent
periodcoveredby the two surveys.This in the labour force.
widespread and significant growth in In the case of female usual status work-
averagedaily wage earningsis fully con- ers, both among rural women and among
sistent with the strong and generalised urban women, there is a reduction in the
growthin labourproductivitywitnessed number of days in the year that is spent
over the same period. outside the labour force on the average.
Next, we examinethe issue of average In the case of rural females, a reduction
numberof daysworkedduringtheyearof of 9-days in the number of days outside
usuallyemployed(Principalplus Subsid- the labour force is offset by an increase
iaryStatus)workers.Thisis possiblesince in the number of days worked (of 5 days
the surveys simultaneouslycanvass the from 241 to 246 days) and an increase in
activity status of the individualon the the numberof days in unemployment. This
usualandthe currentdaily (as well as the would suggest that,at least among the usual
currentweekly)statuses.In principle,this status workers among rural females, the
can be done for each categoryof usual increasednumberof days in unemployment
statusworkerssuch as the self-employed is not due to any fall in the average number
(furtherdistinguishedby broadindustry), of days worked - which in fact, shows an
the regularwage/salariedworkersandthe increase - but is due to a shift in daily
casual labourers.9However, published statusfrom the category 'outside the labour
tables reportingsuch a cross-tabulation force' to both components - the employed
(Usual (PS+SS) x Daily Status)restricts and the unemployed - of labour force.
the scope of such analysis to the broad In the case of usual statusworkersamong
categoriesof workers,theunemployedand urban women, there was an increase of 9
those outside the labourforce.10 days in employment on the average during
Table 10 presents our compution of the year - largely reflecting a shift out of
averagenumberof days worked,average days not in the labour force (a reduction
days in unemploymentand days outside of 8 days) and a small (1-day) reduction
the labour force, of those classified as in the number of days in unemployment.
workers on the Usual (Principal plus What about the overall impact on in-
Subsidiary)Statusperyearin 1993-94and come per worker and income per capita?
Table 10: Activity-Status Distribution of Person-Days Per Year of Usually Employed
(Principal plus Subsidiary Status) Workers by Gender and Rural-Urban Location,
All-India, 1993-94 and 1999-2000
ActivityStatus RuralMales RuralFemales UrbanMales UrbanFemales
1993-94 1999- 1993-94 1999- 1993-94 1999- 1993-94 1999-
2000 2000 2000 2000
At work 331 327 241 246 345 343 279 288
Unemployed 15 19 11 15 10 10 9 8
Outsidelabourforce 19 19 112 103 9 11 76 68
Notes. The above numbersare based on Table 22 of the NSS EmploymentReport(Dec 2000) on: Per
1,000 distributionof person-daysof usuallyemployed (principaland subsidiarystatus) by their
broadcurrentdailystatus forvarioussurvey periods.
Economicand PoliticalWeekly March 17, 2001
 Thesignificantreductionin the worker- derivea labourincomeequalto the prod- Directionallyat least, the above results
populationratiosin all thefourpopulation uct of the numberof days workedin the on 'wage earnings'per capitaareconsis-
segmentscombinedwith the increasein yeartimestheaveragedailyaveragewage tentwitha declinein povertyratiosin both
currentdaily status unemploymentrate earnings- averagedacrossall activities/ ruraland urbanIndia.Furtheranalysisat
notedearlierhaveevokedconcernsabout industriesexcluding public works - re- thestate-levelis in progressto see whether
whetherthe workerpopulationcan sup- ceived by casual wage labourersin that and how far this resultwould hold good
port a much largerproportionof depen- segment. For this purpose,we take the at the level of individualstates.Needless
dent populationat rising levels of real averagedaily wage earningsreportedfor to say, we also need moredataand more
incomepercapita.Indirectly,thisconcern casualwagelabourersfor'allages'-rather analysisof the employmentsurveyresults
also has a bearingon the ongoingdebate than that for adult, prime age (15-59) cross-tabulatedby householdper capita
on the genuinenessor otherwise of the workersdiscussedearlier. consumer expenditure based on the
declineinruralandurbanpovertybetween On a view that the averagewage in- abridgedschedulecanvassedoverthesame
1993-94 and 1999-2000revealedby the comesof allregularwage/salaried workers set of households. 1
results of the 55th Round Consumer wouldbe higherthanthatreceivedby the To summarisethe key results:
ExpenditureSurvey for 1999-2000. casual labourersand that, the growthin Between 1993-94and 1999-2000there
We have alreadynoted that at the all- labourproductivityand hence in labour has beena significantdeclinein the crude
Indialevel therehas been a fairly robust incomes of those (self-employed with worker-population ratiosin all the4 popu-
growth,in realterms,in the averagedaily asset-base) who hire the casual wage lationsegmentsresultinginaslowergrowth
wage earnings of adult casual wage labourerswouldbe atleastas muchas that of workforcerelative to the growth in
labourers - atcloseto orover3 percent per implied by the growth in averagedaily populationand an absolutereductionin
annum-inallthefourpopulationsegments. wage earningsin realterms,the estimates the numberof women workersin rural
Therehas also been a rise in the number of average 'wage earnings' derived as Indiawhich is just aboutoffset by a rise
of daysworked,on the average,by female outlinedabove,can be takenas indicative in the numberof urbanwomen workers.
usualstatusworkersamongbothruraland of thedirectionandbroadorderof magni- To a significantextent, the reductionin
the urbanpopulations.Tendingto offset tude of the extent of changein earnings worker-population ratiosreflectsa benefi-
this has beenthe reductionin the average per workerand per head of the ruraland cial rise in the student-population ratios.
numberof daysworked,byabout1percent theurbanpopulationsinthecountry.These In terms of industrialdistribution,the
or less, amongmale usualstatusworkers estimatesare presentedin Table 11. share of the agriculturesector recordsa
in both ruraland the urbanareas of the It is readily seen that, in ruralIndia, significantdecline to just below 60 per
country.Whatwouldbe the net effect not while averageyearly 'wageearnings'per cent to reduce marginallythe absolute
only on the averageearningsper worker (usualstatus)workerhas grownat close numberof workersin agriculturefor the
but,moreimportantly, onearningspercapita? to 3.6 per cent per annumin real terms, first time since independence.Also, re-
In order to answer this question we on a per capita basis these earningsat cordingadeclineinshareandinthenumber
constructa syntheticestimateof 'yearly constant 1993-94 prices have grown at of workersin the community,social and
wageearnings'of theusualstatusworkers over 2.5 per cent per annumover the six personalservicessectorwithtrade,hotels
inthefourpopulationsegments.Fromthis, years 1993-94 to 1999-2000. and restaurants;construction;and, trans-
combining acrossgender,estimatesof 'wage Overthesameperiod,inurbanIndiatoo, port,communicationsandstoragesectors
earnings'percapitaarederivedseparately averagewageearnings,in realterms,have recordingsizeable growth in both share
for the ruraland the urbanpopulations. grownat 3.2 per cent per annumon a per and numberof workers.
Essentially,we assume that all usual workerbasisandat2.7 percentperannum In termsof labourproductivity,except
statusworkersin a populationsegment on a per capitabasis. fortheconstructionsector,thegrossvalue-
Table 11: Estimated Average Yearly 'Wage Earnings' Per Workerand Per Capita (at Constant 1993-94 Prices) In Ruraland Urban
India, 1993-94 and 1999-2000
RuralMales RuralFemales RuralPersons UrbanMales UrbanFemales UrbanPersons
Population('000) 1993-94 339,360 317,950 657,310 125,200 112,590 237,790
1999-2000 367,240 344,640 711,880 147,440 135,010 282,440
Workforce('000) 1993-94 187,660 104,290 291,950 65,100 17,340 82,440
1999-2000 195,000 103,050 298,050 76,370 18,770 95,140
Averagenumberof days worked 1993-94 331 241 NA 345 279 NA
1999-2000 327 246 NA 343 288 NA
Averagedailywage earningsof casual labour
(allages) 1993-94 22.82 15.15 20.21 31.81 18.07 28.15
1999-2000 28.24 18.27 24.97 37.93 22.97 34.70
Yearly'wage earnings'(Rs crore) 1993-94 141748 38078 179825 71444 8742 80185
1999-2000 180072 46315 226387 99357 12417 111774
Earningsper worker(Rs) 1993-94 7553 3651 6159 10975 5042 9726
1999-2000 9234 4494 7596 13010 6615 11748
Earningsper capita(Rs) 1993-94 4177 1198 2736 5706 776 3372
1999-2000 4903 1344 3180 6739 920 3958
Rateof growth(percent per annum)earnings
perworker 3.41 3.52 3.56 2.88 4.63 3.20
Rateof growth(percent per annum)of earnings
percapita 2.71 1.95 2.54 2.81 2.86 2.70
Note. Inflation-Adjustment for rural India has been made by reference to Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Labourers (CPIAL with base 1986-87 = 100). For
urban India, this adjustment has been made by reference to Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPIIW with base, 1982=100).

Economicand PoliticalWeekly March 17, 2001 939

added per worker has grown significantly
in all the sectors with a 6 per cent per
annum growth in the economy as a whole
and in two of the three largest employing
sectors outside of agriculture.This signifi-
cant growth in labour productivity has
translated into an equally significant and
widespread growth in daily average wage
earnings of casual wage labourersboth for
males and females and in both rural and
urban India. In turn, this growth in real
wage earnings, and a rise in the number
of days worked by females, has been
sufficient to more than offset both a re-
duction in the crude worker-population
ratios and a marginal reduction in the
average number of days worked for male
workers, to raise average wage earnings
per capita at over 2.5 per cent per annum
in both rural and urban India over the
period 1993-94 and 1999-2000. This re-
sult is consistent with a decline, over the
same period, in poverty ratios in both rural
and urban India.
Furtheranalysis, especially of datacross-
tabulated by household per capita
consumer expenditure, is needed to see
whether and how far the all-India results
presented above hold good at the level of
individual states. I13
Notes
[Thanksaredueto mycolleague,SureshTendulkar,
for useful discussions. Disclaimers apply.]
1 NSSO, GoI, Report No 455 (55/10)
and Unemploymentin India1999-
Employment
2000, KeyResults,NSS 55th RoundJuly 1999-
June2000,December2000.(Hereafter,referred
to as NSS Employment Report.)
2 It needs to be stressed that the canvassing of
the Consumer Expenditure and the
Employment-Unemployment Surveys over
differentsets of householdsin the 55th Round
Survey has not resulted in any dimunitionof
the numberof personssurveyed in this Round
relativeto the50th Roundwhen bothschedules
werecanvassedoverthesamesetof households.
If anything,the numberof persons surveyed
now is higher.Thus, at the all-Indialevel, the
numberof personssurveyedin 1999-2000 was
509, 779 in ruralIndia and 309,234 in urban
India, comparedto, 356,351 and 208,389 in
the two locations respectively in 1993-94.
3 Using the implicitexponentialgrowthrate,the
total all-Indiapopulationis interpolated.The
overall urbanshare is similarly projectedand
the ruralpopulationis obtained as a residual.
The share of males within each location is
separately interpolated and used to derive
populationestimatesof ruralmales and urban
males. The estimates for rural females and
urbanfemales are derived residually.
4 Two notes of caution are in order in respect
of this and all other results on the size of the
workforce- whetherin the aggregateor in any
given Industrydivision - in 1999-2000.
First, all estimates of workforce size are
conditional on the underlying population
estimatesin thefourpopulationsegmentswhich
have been taken from the projectionsput out
by the registrargeneral of India in 1996. The
resultsof theongoingPopulationCensuscould 10 A simple mappingof usual status workers in
yield different sets of estimates for India's
population as on January 1, 2000.
Second, estimates of total workforcein the
four segments have been derivedby using the
crude worker-populationratiosas revealedby
the 55th Round Employment Survey. Since
these WPRs are weighted averages of age-
specific WPRs weightedby shareof each age-
group in the total populationin a segment as
revealedby thesurvey,we areineffectassuming
the survey-basedage-distributionto be correct.
This assumption too may be shown up as
inappropriate by the results of the 2001
Population Census.
5 Using the age-distribution as given in the
Survey Report, for 1993-94 and 1999-2000,
it can be shown that the decline in the WPRs
in the 5-24 age-group accountedfor the bulk
of the decline in the overall WPR in three of
the four population segments - with urban
females as an exception. In the case of urban
males, the decline in the WPRs in the 5-9, 10-
14, 15-19 and the 20-24 age-groups,weighted
by their respective population shares, more
thanoffsets the increasein the contributionof
the populationaged 25 andabove to the overall
WPR in 1999-2000 relative to 1993-94.
6 Theavailabletabulationpermitsonlythisbroad,
agriculture/non-agricultureclassification by
Industry in respect of subsidiary economic
activity of those similarly classified on the
Usual Principal Status.
7 An alternativeapproachwould be to generate
an industrialdistributionof employed person
days on the basis of the currentdaily status
and derive estimates of GVA per person day
of employmentfordifferentindustrydivisions.
Presentlyavailable tabulationsprovide only a National Sample Survey Organisation (1996):
threefold industrial categorisation of total
employed person days: agriculture,mining,
manufacturing,electricity, gas and water and - (2000): Reporton 455 (55/10) Employmentand
construction, and services.
8 This decline in daily average wage earnings
for urbanfemale workersin IndustryDivisions
8 and 9, where labourproductivityhas grown, RegistrarGeneralof India(1996): Censusof India
on the average, at over 6 and 10 per cent per
annumover thesameperiodis indeedpuzzling.
By the sametoken,therise in realaveragedaily
wage earnings of urban casual labourers
engaged in constructionactivity (at 2 per cent
per annum for males and 3.5 per cent per Sundaram, K and Suresh D Tendulkar(1988):
annumforfemales)in a situationwhereaverage
labour productivity has remained virtually
stagnant is equally puzzling.
9 This 3x3 activity status classification is
availableonlyattheall-Indialevelbutseparately
for the four population segments. For the Sundaram,K (2001): 'Economic Development:
individual states we only have the per 1,000
distribution of person days (as between
employed person days, unemployed person
days and person days not in labour force) of
the usuallyemployed(principalandsubsidiary
status)persons- but separatelyby genderand Visaria,Pravin(1998): 'EnemploymentandYouth
rural urban location. In this tabulation, the
proportionemployed on the daily status can
be equivalently interpretedas the proportion
of the week (7 person days per person) in that
activity on the current daily status and thus
converted to person days per year - in
employment, unemploymentand outside the
labour force - of all usual status workers on
the average.
a category - say casual labour in agriculture
- into estimated person days in that same
categorywill not be appropriateas the persons
contributingthose person days may not all or
only come from the category of usual status
workers in that category. This is sharply
highlightedwhen we try and map persondays
in regular wage/salaried work in agriculture
of ruralmales(21,348) intousualstatusworkers
in that category (23,440). Each one would
have to work more than 9 days in a week!
11 Incidentally,since the referenceperiodfor the
abridged schedule was a uniform 30-day
reference period for all items of expenditure
and in the case of the NSS 50th RoundSurvey
for 1993-94 these estimateswouldbe free from
problems of comparability on this count.
Admittedly these are not entirely free from
problems of comparability- arising from the
use of an 'abridged' schedule rather than a
detailed schedule. However, given that the
directionof the bias in the resultantestimates
would be to push down ratherthan push up
the percapitaconsumerexpenditure,a decline
in poverty ratios established by reference to
estimate of consumer expenditure from the
employmentsurvey canvassedover a separate
set of households, would be robust. Fuller
analysis of the rich data set generatedby the
55th Round Employment-Unemployment
Survey is absolutely essential before
entertainingsuggestions of a fresh large-scale
surveyusingupveryscarceresourcesof money
and trained survey manpower.
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Sarvekshana,Vol 20, No 1, 68th Issue, July-
September.
Unemployment in India 1999-2000, Key
ResultsNSS 55th RoundJuly 1999-June2000,
December.
1991, Population Projections for India and
States 1998-2016, Report of the Technical
Group on Population Projectionsconstituted
by the Planning Commission, August, New
Delhi.
'Toward an Explanation of Inter-regional
Variations in Poverty and Unemploymentin
RuralIndia'in T N SrinivasanandP K Bardhan
(eds), Rural Poverty in SouthAsia, Columbia
University Press, New York.
Employment and Occupational Diversi-
fication' in K SrinivasanandM Viassoff(eds),
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940 Economic and Political Weekly March 17, 2001