Therapeutic Market Outlooks

Obesity
Publication Date: December 2007

Tables and Figures

Tables
Table 1: Classification of Overweight and Obesity by BMI ......... 4
Table 2: Waist Circumference – High Risk Determination .......... 4
Table 3: Classification of Overweight and Obesity by BMI,
Waist Circumference and Associated Disease Risk.................... 5
Table 4: NHANES Estimates of Obese Population (%) .............. 6
Table 5: Percent of Population Obese in each age group
(BMI ≥ 30) .......................................................................... 6
Table 6: Risk Factors Associated with Increased Morbidity and
Mortality in Obese Persons .................................................... 6
Table 7: Obesity Patient Population Model .............................. 9
Table 8: U.S. Obesity Market Model, 2004-2013 .................... 17
Table 9: U.S. Obesity Market Model, 2004-2013 .................... 18
Table 10: Anti-Obesity Product Differentiation ....................... 22
Table 11: AVOS Physician Panel Market Trend Forecasts ........ 24
Table 12: Marketed Products in the United States .................. 27
Table 13: Xenical – Revenue Model ...................................... 31
Table 14: Xenical – Commercial Strength .............................. 31
Table 15: Meridia – Revenue Model...................................... 34
Table 16: Meridia – Commercial Strength.............................. 34
Table 17: Phentermine – Revenue Model .............................. 37
Table 18: Phendimetrazine/diethylpropion/(Didrex)
benzphetamine – Revenue Models ....................................... 39
Table 19: Cetilistat – Revenue Model.................................... 41
Table 20: Rimonabant – Revenue Model ............................... 43
Table 21: Taranabant/CP-945,598/SLV-319 – Revenue
Models.............................................................................. 46
Table 22: Lorcaserin – Revenue Model ................................. 50
Table 23: Liraglutide – Revenue Model ................................. 53
Table 24: Pramlintide + Leptin – Revenue Model ................... 55
Table 25: Drugs in Development.......................................... 59

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Figures
Figure 1: AVOS Population Projection by Year ......................... 8
Figure 2: Treatment Algorithm............................................. 19
Figure 3: Treatment Decision Tree ....................................... 20
Figure 4: Physician Product Ratings (Scale of 1-10)................ 23
Figure 5: Timeline of Major Market Events ............................ 28
Figure 6: Xenical – U.S. Market Share Forecast...................... 31
Figure 7: Xenical – U.S. Revenue Forecast ............................ 31
Figure 8: Decline in Xenical RRx, NRx and TRx ...................... 32
Figure 9: Meridia – U.S. Market Share Forecast ..................... 34
Figure 10: Meridia – U.S. Revenue Forecast .......................... 34
Figure 11: Phentermine – U.S. Market Share Forecast ............ 37
Figure 12: Phentermine – U.S. Revenue Forecast................... 37
Figure 13: Phendimetrazine/diethylpropion/(Didrex)
benzphetamine – U.S. Market Share Forecasts ...................... 39
Figure 14: Phendimetrazine/diethylpropion/(Didrex)
benzphetamine – U.S. Revenue Forecasts ............................. 39
Figure 15: Cetilistat – U.S. Market Share Forecast .................. 41
Figure 16: Cetilistat – U.S. Revenue Forecast ........................ 41
Figure 17: Rimonabant – U.S. Market Share Forecast ............. 43
Figure 18: Rimonabant – U.S. Revenue Forecast.................... 43
Figure 19: Taranabant/CP-945,598/SLV-319 – U.S. Market
Share Forecasts ................................................................. 46
Figure 20: Taranabant/CP-945,598/SLV-319 – U.S. Revenue
Forecasts .......................................................................... 46
Figure 21: Lorcaserin – U.S. Market Share Forecast................ 50
Figure 22: Lorcaserin – U.S. Revenue Forecast ...................... 50
Figure 23: Liraglutide – U.S. Market Share Forecast ............... 53
Figure 24: Liraglutide – U.S. Revenue Forecast...................... 53
Figure 25: Pramlintide + Leptin – U.S. Market Share
Forecast............................................................................ 55
Figure 26: Pramlintide + Leptin – U.S. Revenue Forecast........ 55
Figure 27: Clinical Success Rates of Anti-obesity Agents:
1990-Present ..................................................................... 57

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