Mobile Megatrends 2011: Visionmobile: Distilling Market Noise Into Market Sense

VisionMobile : distilling market noise into market sense
Mobile Megatrends 2011

updated 10 Feb 2011
Page Copyright VisionMobile 2011
Knowledge. Passion. Innovation.
Andreas Constantinou
Michael Vakulenko
Matos Kapetanakis
(c) VisionMobile 2011
Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License (http://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)

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Distilling market noise into market sense
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the commercial mechanics 100 million club
behind Android and how tracking successful businesses
Google runs the show in mobile

Trusted by industry brands
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VisionMobile clients
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VisionMobile 2011
2007-2010
Mobile Megatrends 2011
The DELL-ification of mobile Software: new era for telecoms Experience ecosystems
How the mobile handset landscape is and the new rules for innovation how telecoms + internet convergence
becoming much like the PC is leading to the next megabrands
Apps are the new web open + closed Developers, developers

Why apps are the new information use of open + closed strategies to the engine behind telecoms innovation
paradigm for web 3.0 commoditise + protect
Communities: a new currency Stuck in the telecoms age

Communities will provide the main how carriers are stuck in the telecoms age and
differentiation above price, design and content how to compete
The DELL-ification of mobile
How the mobile handset market is approaching PC-like commoditisation

Internet players agenda drive top-5 OEMs
and OEM market is fragmenting, approaching the PC market
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Q3 2010
Market share of top-5 OEMs (source: Gartner)
67% 73% 72% 81% 80% 61%

Profits are driven by end-to-end players
and away from the old top-5 OEM league
source: Deutsche Bank

OEM strategies: volume vs profit
= strategy
$ profit per unit
data source: Deutsche Bank

2010 market share %
OEMs at different stages of integration
Three roles for handset manufacturers across the double helix
Horizontal player structure Vertical player structure

Leaders: new product experiences
and enviable margins
Assemblers
razon-thin
margins
wannabee
innovators
wannabee
leaders
Innovators: incremental innovation

strong brand, performance, good looks
and services

Lead, innovate or assemble
The new role models for OEMs in the post-Android era
1. Assemblers: Razor-thin margins

10s of assemblers use Android to deliver ready-to-market smartphones with complete service and apps
ecosystem competing head-to-head with major OEMs. iPhone me-too experience at $100 retail.
2. Leaders: unique product experiences

Manufacturers who can masterfully integrate hardware + software + services + industrial design into new
product experiences - from phones and tablets to TVs. Unique product experiences at $500 retail.
3. Innovators: incremental innovation

The old top-5 OEM guard. Differentiation is on strong brand, performance, good looks and services.
4. Mass producers: catering to developing markets ?

Mass producers rely on huge economies of scale to break even at $50, but make up nearly 50% of unit sales
in the mobile handset market.

The innovators are squeezed in
Revenue pyramid
performance
pressure Leaders:
new product experiences
Innovators:
incremental innovation
Assemblers:
price razor-thin margins
pressure

DELLification in 2015
closely modelling the PC business
Profit pyramid Revenue pyramid Present-day example
Leaders
Role model: Apple
€37.5B 5% @ $500
Innovators
Role model: Samsung
€90B 25% @ $250
Assemblers
Role model: Dell
€56B 25% @ $100

s
ce
Mass producers
vi
Role model: Nokia ?

de
€37.5B 45% @ $50

B
1.5
$200B
OEM + Android: winners and losers
The winners: The losers:

low cost assemblers ‘old guard’ OEMs
Cost structure optimised for razor-thin margins Cost structure requires high-margins
Android is a long-term opportunity for global reach Android is a short-term life support
No Name

The new world: Innovate or die
The new rules of the handset industry
1. Software and hardware is commodity

- Software is a loss-leader, monetised by ads (Google), hardware (Apple), content (Amazon), services (RIM)
- Software is provided a la carte and pre-integrated by chipset providers (e.g. Qualcomm, MediaTek)
2. Points of differentiation rapidly disappearing

- Android provides out-of-the-box, complete ecosystems; OEMs compete on equal footing to assemblers
3. The search for innovation is on

OEMs are search for new models of innovation beyond price, brand, performance and marketing:
- communities BlackBerry messaging or facebook deals
- made-to-order handsets; copying DELL’s PC model
- white label services for carriers where OEMs trade service revenues for carrier subsidies
- micro-retailing ‘slotting’ promos across distribution regions and channels
Software: the new era for telecoms
and the new rules for innovation
image source: maschinenraum / Flickr

$$$ and software DNA are key for platforms
20 dead platforms in the last 10 years
Internet
Danger OS
Android Chrome OS
SavaJe OS
PC
Trolltech $30M
A la Mobile
iOS
Nokia GEOS IXI Mobile Palm 5/6 Azingo
Motorola L-J Comneon Apoxi Access ALP

Mobile
e-SIM Intrinsyc OS OpenWave MIDAS
Sasken Aria Mizi Prizm
SKY-MAP MOAP
UIQ TTPCom Ajar OpenMoko
2000 2001 2002 2007 2008 2009 2010

Page = dead end bubble size = company revenues Copyright VisionMobile 2011
The battle for mass-market smartphone reach
OEM internal licensable

€600+
computers
mobile
€400
device retail price
connected
Nokia Series 40
phones
Samsung SHP
€100 LG Wise
€50
phones
voice
Note: OSes omitted: Myriad, Mediatek OS, Mango (Qualcomm), Koretide Elastos
14 out of 15 platforms are monetised indirectly by complementary products

11 out of 15 platforms have developer ecosystems or industry consortia built around them
The battle for ecosystem completeness
Carriers Nokia RIM Apple Qualcomm Google facebook
Components
Social networks
Cloud services
Developer ecosystem
Network
User interface
Operating system
Hardware IP
Manufacturing
denotes where vendor started

Huge gap between telecoms & software worlds
success as
defined in
2010
success as
defined in
2005

software: turning telecoms upside down
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Huge gap between telecoms & software worlds
Telecoms world Software world
Success factor Installed base Number of apps
Speed of innovation 1 OS version every 2 years 5 OS versions/year
Time to market 1-2 years 1-2 weeks
Type of services comms-centric catering to entire needs portfolio
Risk-taking predictability / de-risking entrepreneurship / uncertainty
Access to innovation 100s of close partners 100,000s of developers
Business model B2B licensing B2C sales/ads/in-app sales
Channel to market voice, text and web smartphones
Discovery On deck / on device App store
First step “we need to sign an NDA” “we need to download the SDK”
Process Waterfall: RFI, RFQ, deliver, Agile: add feature, build, test,
QA repeat
Attitude “developers will come to us” “we need to go to developers”
The new rules of innovation
1. Speed of innovation defined by internet companies, not hardware / networks
- Companies from the Internet domain (Apple, Google, Facebook) out-innovate companies from the mobile
industry domain (Nokia, Samsung, Sun) and the networks domain (Vodafone, China Mobile)
- Internet players are at top of the food chain and are becoming increasingly assertive
2. Innovation requires new competence and regional presence

- California is the center for software and services innovation. Japan/Korea is the center of CE innovation.
- You can’t innovate in software unless you have DNA in software and presence in those regions
3. If you can’t innovate in software, you will be replaced

- The evolutionary game has just accelerated 10-fold.
- Players who cannot evolve at software speeds will eventually be replaced by alternatives
(e.g. software has superseded carrier efforts in location, billing and distribution)

Experience Ecosystems
telecoms + internet convergence is leading to experience ecosystems

telecoms + internet + PC + consumer electronics = ?
our definition of convergence has changed
2003 2010 2015
?
Is the future of convergence?
No more. Leaders
Innovators
-‐ Innovators are in a price war Assemblers
-‐ Android is making smart devices possible
-‐ ARM becoming defacto in CE devices
-‐ Sensors + form factors = diverse experiences
-‐ Developer ecosystem is part of core experience

Convergence is about experience roaming
Convergence is about having an experience that roams consistently across ‘screens’
experience roaming across screens
Social circle
Developer ecosystem
convergence =
User data roaming
Service roaming x
User interaction design
Industrial design
Brand

Apple is the poster child of experience roaming
Apple leads by example, by delivering a consistent experience across divers screens
Experience roaming Across screens
Social circle Ping iPod

Apps ecosystem App Store iPhone
User data roaming MobileMe iPad
Service roaming iTunes, AirPlay Mac
User interaction design iOS Apple TV
Industrial design Apple ?
Brand Apple

The next battle is for Experience Ecosystems
Experience Ecosystems create major exit barriers and drive cross-sales; they are therefore a
sustainable strategy for Innovator OEMs needing to survive margin pressures.
network network
effects effects
the future of convergence is experience roaming
convergence = screens + experience
2003 2010 2015
the future of convergence is in a single experience + developer ecosystem

powered by ARM hardware across mobile, PC & embedded

Apps are the new web
Why apps are the new information paradigm for web 3.0

Everyone wants their own app store
but very few are above the radar = number of apps when above 5,000
OS vendors
OEMs Carriers Independent
Source: Distimo
App stores are about control, not $$$
App Stores are a control point for: and an opportunity for:
- access to applications
e.g. Skype cannot have a video calling app on the iPhone
- distribution of applications
e.g Google uses Android Market to enforce compliance requirements
on Android handsets
- billing & monetisation of applications

an opportunity to extract a commission in the form of revenue share
for paid apps and in-app purchases
- retailing & discovery of applications

an opportunity to sell ads and personalisation services to developers,
plus differentiate with content curation
- consumer insights
an opportunity to optimise device and service targeting

Building an app store is not easy

Why is building an app store so hard?
App stores need 5 genes from 5 species across the value chain
Genes
Species
platform mobile handset platform brands and

companies carriers & OEMs companies retailers
payment
brokers

3 pillars to the app store evolution 2011-13
1. Merchandising: App stores will take retailing where it’s never been before
- app retailing is bottleneck, resulting in price erosion as developers drop prices to bubble up to the top-25.
-This will drive retail sophistication: App Malls (shops-in-shop), bundles, time-limited offers, friend
endorsements, inventory micro-targeting, gift/beg options, second-hand apps, offers tied to carriers, etc
2. Diversity: App Stores will cater to 100s of niche segments;

Genre-centric stores (Games store), lifestyle-centric stores (e.g. sports or clothes brands), specialist content (e.g.
adult or enterprise), region-centric stores (e.g. Seattle apps)
3. Low barriers: App Malls will enable low-cost shops-in-shop setups

SDP vendors will offer the infrastructure, catalogue and recommendations technology allowing wannabe
app retailers to be setup at very low cost, with proven revenue models (setup fee + rent + sales commission)
Page Copyright
Copyright VisionMobile
VisionMobile 2011
2007-2010
Apps succeed where the web failed
- 2007: voice, text and web was main channel for services
the old school of mobile services: voice, texting, ringtones, televoting, MMS, Mobile TV,..
- 2011: 500,000+ applications on smartphones

- Apps are the single biggest digital channel since the web
- There are apps springing up everywhere there is a website
for every website, for every brand and for every corporate intranet
- Apps succeeded where cross-platform frameworks failed

Mobile web pages and widgets are poor alternatives to apps
Java and Flash failed to pick up where web left off
- The web is now the lowest common denominator across screens

across devices, the living room, the PC and the car

what is are apps?
apps are a new information paradigm
For.. Mobile apps Web pages
packaging Self-contained Set of pages
personalising access to location, explicitly typed info only

contacts
discovering app store text results or URL
monetising micropayments ads
interacting touch, sensors, keys mouse, keys
measuring downloads economy attention economy
.. information

Web 3.0 will adopt the app paradigm
Web apps will proliferate in mobile handsets driven by
- web benefactors Google, Microsoft, Apple
- technology commoditisation; WebKit and V8;
- consistent technology adoption WebKit on >350M handsets up to June 2010
- platform vendors seeking to modernise their developer platforms
e.g. WebOS vs Palm OS, RIM WebWorks vs BlackBerry OS 6, Nokia WRT. BREW to follow?
- and “buy in” to a developer community and a “hype-ready” platform

building a developer community is extremely expensive. It comes for free with web technologies
- the need to tap into new developer segments from the web domain
1.5 million web developers most of which are new to mobile
- The need to reduce development costs for cross-screen apps

mobile, tablet, PC, TV, consumer electronics, automotive, ..

Google under threat in web 3.0
Google rose due to openness, info chaos and lack of monetisation
- the open (crawlable) web,
- the lack of information semantics (needing Pagerank to create order out of chaos)
- the lack of a micropayments mechanism on the web (increasing demand for ads)
Google is now threatened from web silos, app stores and micropayments
- closed web silos (Facebook and Apple’s app store)
- semantic information discovery in app stores (reducing greatly the search complexity)
- app micropayments & NFC (reducing the need for ads)
To survive, Google is trying to outrun the market trends

- launching is own walled gardens (Orkut and Buzz), its own app stores (Android Market and Chrome Web
Store) and integrating a payments technology (NFC) within Android handsets

Open + closed: two sides of the same coin
use of open + closed strategies to commoditise + protect

Open is the new closed
- Android, MeeGo, Webkit, Qt, Maemo, Eclipse, Linux all use open source
all projects use an open source license for the public source code
- Open source licenses are standardised and well understood

3 licenses used most often in mobile projects (GPL, LGPL, APL)
- But an open source license is only the tip of the iceberg

a license determines access to the project (e.g. Android public source code)
- Governance is what determines the rules of the game

the governance model determines access and influence into the product (e.g. Android handsets)
- Open licenses are used with closed governance

many projects restrict governance while maintaining an open source license

Closed governance is used to control
clever use of governance models can be used to control products based on OSS
license type
dual license
(commercial + copyleft)
Qt
strong copyleft
(GPL)
Linux kernel
weak copyleft
Foundation (LGPL, MPL, EPL,..)
Foundation
WebKit
permissive
(APL, BSD, MIT, ...)
Android
open community managed community autocratic

community
governance model (simplified)
What are the criteria for ‘openness’ ?
Access
• Is source code available to all without discrimination?
• Are project mailing lists, forums, bug-tracking databases and developer tools available to all?
• Is the project roadmap available publicly?
Development
• Are decision-making mechanisms transparent and accessible?
• Is the code contribution and acceptance process clear and accessible?
• Are the requirements to become a committer clear and equitable?
• Can you identify who the committers to the project are?
• Are the requirements to become a reviewer clear and equitable?
• Can you identify who the reviews to the project are?
• Does the contribution license require copyright assignment (vs. a copyright license)
Derivatives
• Are trademarks used to control compliance and use of the project?
• Are go-to-market channels for Application Derivatives constrained?
Community
• Do different community members have different rights?

Openness to commoditise product complements
beyond open source, openness is used as a business strategy to commoditise
product complements while protecting core assets
Windows
iOS Android BlackBerry Symbian
Phone
Bundled services Closed Open Closed Closed Open
App developers Curated Open Curated Curated Curated
Device vendor Closed Open Open Closed Open
Software platform Closed Closed Closed Closed Curated
Hardware platform Closed Curated Closed Closed Open

Developers, Developers, Developers
the engine behind telecoms innovation

Based on
Mobile Developer Economics 2010
- Analysis of the developer experience from design to monetisation

Free download: www.Developer Economics.com
- Across all 8 major platforms
- Based on a sample of 401 mobile app developers

- With significant experience in mobile development
More than 60% of respondents have 3+ years of experience in app development.
Nearly 30% have won one or more developer awards
Page Copyright
Copyright VisionMobile 2011
VisionMobile 2007-10
The diverse world of software developers
With different business models and incentives
content publishers
Internet service
providers
system
integrators
mobile games
developers
software
houses
independent
developers apps development
software integration agencies
services
Android has biggest mindshare
“
Android is better than other
-Android has biggest mindshare platforms in terms of tools,
- Symbian/Java down from #1/#2 in 2008 platform features, and it’s
easier to stand out as
- Most developers work on multiple platforms developer.”
The average is 2.8 platforms, across sample of 401 developers Android developer
Android 3x easier to learn than Symbian

Developers becoming market savvy
“
technical considerations are
Commercial above technical reasoning irrelevant, the choice of
-Large market penetration (70% of respondents) is platform is ALWAYS
more important than ability to code & prototype quickly (45%) marketing-driven.”
- Revenue potential (55%) is more relevant than Mobile web developer
good documentation (35%)

App Stores reduce time-to-market by 3x
“
App Stores minimised
time-to-shelf from 68 days
to 22 days and halved
time-to-payment

The app developer journey
The many facets of the app developer experience
- platform hype - developer certification - analytics & sales tracking

- addressable market - app signing, certification & approval - user ratings
(devices/regions) - regional testing & sandbox networks - user support
- platform features - beta testing with peers and end users - application updates
- learning curve & coding effort - localisation frameworks - cross-selling
- conferences & competitions - packaging and SKU management tools - privacy compliance
* * *
develop,
application platform market retailing & in-life
debug &
planning selection readiness monetisation application use
support
- audience targeting - IDEs, SDKs and documentation - go-to-market channels

- concept design - UI tools - promotional tools
- feature design - emulator and on-target debugging - co-marketing programs
- prototyping tools - community & official forums/websites - revenue models
- market research - profiling tools - billing & settlement
- focus groups - test frameworks
- porting tools
*: mostly applicable to developers who sell apps - premium technical support
Key developer pain points
based on Developer Economics 2010 research
App submission & certification Application marketing

application certification is expensive, approval takes too lack of effective marketing channels to increase
long, and signing is complicated app exposure and discovery
develop,
application platform market retailing & in-life
debug &
planning selection readiness monetisation application use
support
most vendor effort goes here
Localisation Dubious long-tail economics

lack of localised apps for most regions, lack of average RoI through an app store is much less than
localisation tools for developers the cost of producing the app

Are you a mobile developer?
Want to share your own views on app development?
Join in Developer Economics 2011.

Have your say on the hottest issues in app development and win a $1,500 Amazon voucher.
www.visionmobile.com/dev
open until end March 2011.
created by
sponsored by

Communities: the new currency

Communities are the new frontier
Building a brand, product or technology is science
Building a community is a form of art
Whether it’s a consumer, enterprise or a developer community
New techniques are emerging; game mechanics and religion engineering

you can buy an audience but..
you can’t buy a community
an audience is people who interact with a service.
a community is a network of people who interact amongst them
you can buy an audience (eyeballs or subscribers)
but you can’t buy a community (network interactions)

Communities are the new differentiator
Service brands, OEMs and carriers have tried to create own communities
But found that community creation needs a very different rulebook
And ended up partnering with communities (Facebook, Twitter, etc)
Exclusive deals with communities will be the new differentiator above
price, design and premium content.

Communities are the new currency
Zynga's CityVille grew to 100 million users in just 43 days
Facebook is a platform between 500M+ users and 2.5M+ developers
Facebook is #1 social network across the world except China, Russia, Brazil, Japan
Skype: 8 million paid users and 25% of global international calling traffic

Carriers: stuck in the telecoms age
and how to compete

Carriers in the midst of an identity crisis
Carriers are telecoms-age species in a software age
- Carriers have grown in the telecoms age; this affects their ability to adapt and their speed of innovation
..In an identity crisis

- Carriers are still undecided as to whether they want to be an access company (e.g. LightSquared, KPN), a
supermarket (Verizon), a shelf (Vodafone) or a broker (Three). They want to be everything to everyone.
Losing battle after battle for control points

- non-communication needs (apps), location (GPS), billing (app stores), service retailing & discovery (app
stores), authentication (Twitter/facebook), mobile termination (Google C2DM), subscriber activation
(iPhone soft SIM?)
With no innovation in their core business

- voice, texting and SIM cards have seen no innovation in the last decade.
Taking baby steps in the software age
Carriers don’t know how to use software
- Carriers software efforts are mediocre; see Vodafone VSCL, VFX and widgets
- Using WAC to profit from apps, when Apple/Google are not profiting from apps
Carriers are accelerating the PC-like commoditisation of handsets

- skewing the natural OEM selection process (by ranging handsets on a OS basis) and forcing
Innovator OEMs to struggle while nimble assemblers thrive
- The $100 smartphone means loss of subsidy power for carriers, therefore loss of differentiation
Carriers are funding their antagonists

- most Android projects 2007-2009 were carrier-funded.
- Android and iPhone are playing AT&T and Verizon like puppets on strings; e.g. Verizon now
heavily marketing iPhone, while AT&T heavily pushing Android.

The real value of carriers
The real value of carriers is still untapped
1. Leverage apps to drive core business, not generate revenues

- Deliver voice and messaging apps that build on core network business, at 10x deployment speeds
- quit pushing for higher communications ARPU, but leverage apps to extent revenues across untapped
segments of consumer spending portfolio (transport, health, food, housing, etc)
- expose network APIs that drive lock-in to core business, not APIs that generate revenue
- leverage apps to drive premium customer acquisition, customer retention and increase switching costs
2. Divide and conquer among app stores

- Don’t create new app stores (WAC) but divide and conquer among existing app stores
- Create shop fronts for app retailing and promotions
- Monetise by helping developers target apps to the right demographic in real time
- Offer recommendation services by tapping into users’ social graph
3. Increase power over OEM suppliers
- Shift handset purchasing model to a performance based per-device bonus based on hitting ARPU,
messaging and churn targets; leverage on network analytics.
- Resist a price war on handsets by favouring an oligopoly of traditional suppliers
4. Become the VISA of mobile

- aggressively grow carrier billing usage via in-app payments
- provide micro-billing at VISA-like rates activated via SMS
5. Invest in retail differentiation

- as devices commoditise, retail will become a stronger control point for customer acquisition
- Invest in retail differentiation, for example visual service retailing, bundling services/apps in handsets,
deploying handset PoS configurators and carrying out PoS customer segmentation analysis.

6. Customer experience management
- Identify influencers and improve lifetime value metrics
- Understand customer behaviour and enable behavioural targeting by third parties
7. Drive wholesale business beyond mobile

- Drive wholesale model in CE business (ala Kindle) to de-risk and differentiate bandwidth pricing
8. Handset customisation: focus on merchandising and addressbook

- focus on a single app (active idle screen) to be provisioned on all smartphones + some Java handsets
- idle screen app can encompass service merchandising/promos and addressbook functionality
- leave all other apps to 3rd parties!

a note of caution
is WAC repeating history mistakes?

- WAC is a framework for creating carrier-owned app stores
even if carriers don’t have most of the genes to create their own app store
- and making money from apps
when Apple/Google use apps as a complementary business, not as a revenue generator
- Needs software agility, but moves with telecoms rigidity

12 months since announcement and no distribution channel, no marketplace, no billing
Telecoms rigidity and ‘design by committee’ is the key reason why LiMo failed
- Smartphone focus, but feature phone opportunity
Smartphone focus (Opera, S60, iPhone), where competition is fierce. Opportunity is in feature
phones but challenge is fragmentation of widget runtimes and buying power - why i-mode alliance failed.
- Distribution channel will fail once runtimes fragment
Same reason why a Java app store would fail.
- Distribution will fragment among carriers
Each carrier to have different app requirements and revenue shares
Same reason while the BREW app store (since 2001) failed to reach Apple’s proportions
Thanks for listening.
Knowledge. Passion. Innovation.
want more?
hello@visionmobile.com
contact us to schedule an on-site workshop.
Updated: 12 November 2010

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VisionMobile : distilling market noise into market sense

Mobile Megatrends 2011

Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License (http://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)

Page Copyright VisionMobile 2011

Active Idle Screen Open Source Chessboard

Top-100 analyst blog

The Android Game Plan

Page Copyright VisionMobile 2011

Apps are the new web open + closed Developers, developers

Communities: a new currency Stuck in the telecoms age

Page Copyright VisionMobile 2011

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Q3 2010

Market share of top-5 OEMs (source: Gartner)

67% 73% 72% 81% 80% 61%

Page Copyright VisionMobile 2011

source: Deutsche Bank

Page Copyright VisionMobile 2011

data source: Deutsche Bank

Horizontal player structure Vertical player structure

Innovators: incremental innovation

Page Copyright VisionMobile 2011

1. Assemblers: Razor-thin margins

2. Leaders: unique product experiences

3. Innovators: incremental innovation

4. Mass producers: catering to developing markets ?

Page Copyright VisionMobile 2011

Page Copyright VisionMobile 2011

Profit pyramid Revenue pyramid Present-day example

€56B 25% @ $100

Role model: Nokia ?

€37.5B 45% @ $50

The winners: The losers:

Page Copyright VisionMobile 2011

1. Software and hardware is commodity

2. Points of differentiation rapidly disappearing

3. The search for innovation is on

image source: maschinenraum / Flickr

Nokia GEOS IXI Mobile Palm 5/6 Azingo

Motorola L-J Comneon Apoxi Access ALP

e-SIM Intrinsyc OS OpenWave MIDAS

Sasken Aria Mizi Prizm

2000 2001 2002 2007 2008 2009 2010

OEM internal licensable

14 out of 15 platforms are monetised indirectly by complementary products

Carriers Nokia RIM Apple Qualcomm Google facebook

denotes where vendor started

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Page Copyright VisionMobile 2011

Success factor Installed base Number of apps

Speed of innovation 1 OS version every 2 years 5 OS versions/year

Time to market 1-2 years 1-2 weeks

Type of services comms-centric catering to entire needs portfolio

Risk-taking predictability / de-risking entrepreneurship / uncertainty

Access to innovation 100s of close partners 100,000s of developers

Business model B2B licensing B2C sales/ads/in-app sales

Channel to market voice, text and web smartphones

Discovery On deck / on device App store

2. Innovation requires new competence and regional presence

-‐ Innovators are in a price war Assemblers

-‐ Android is making smart devices possible

-‐ ARM becoming defacto in CE devices

-‐ Sensors + form factors = diverse experiences

-‐ Developer ecosystem is part of core experience